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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Mrs. May survives the day getting cabinet backing for the deal
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Mrs. May survives the day getting cabinet backing for the deal and there’s been no Vote of Confidence move
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https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1062801864494845952
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1062796162468601857
Utterly bored by the likes of JRM. We know what he thinks, it's the same as it always is, and he doesn't have the guts to leave the party or challenge the leader. Yawn. Turning into the pub bore.
1) They know it won't get approved by the Commons
or
2) They know how much carnage there will be in the event of No Deal. A bad deal is better than No Deal.
But my dinner's ready....
Jeez - they are now below Boris Johnson in my estimation and that is saying something!
https://twitter.com/AVMikhailova/status/1062804154647830529
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1062798625632325632
Or, at least, are prepared to stake their careers on that calculation.
The last one topped 1,000.
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1062789752221585411
- end to freedom of movement for people not already in the UK
- an end to budgetary contributions at the end of the transition period (which for the avoidance of doubt is when the Irish border solution starts)
- rUK to NI trade (or vice versa) unaffected for period of the Irish border solution, although if UK standards diverge then no UK -> NI -> Ireland trickery. NI standards will not diverge and hence NI goods will access to the Irish market in free circulation (mark II)
Honestly I think this is a pretty good deal.
Let's face it, most of the panel will probably be champion tossers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U77ZdnYi6Kw
Tom McTague (@TomMcTague)
Leaving the backstop:
UK may notify EU of intention to leave. Within 6 months a joint committee shall meet to consider the notification. If the EU and the UK decide "jointly" it's no longer needed to keep the Irish border open it will cease to apply.
Short version: EU has a veto
November 14, 2018
Believe me, out in the actual places where people vote, they do not give a flying f*** about this aspect.
3. Articles 6-7 also sets out provisions related to Northern Ireland specific regulatory alignment
in order to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland and to ensure that Northern Ireland
businesses can place products on the EU Single Market without restriction. The application of
the Union Customs Code in Northern Ireland is necessary since the UCC covers all provisions
for a good to be released for free circulation in the EU. These include all of the overarching
requirements for regulatory compliance. Once a good has completed such formalities it can be
considered a ‘Union good’ and in free circulation.
1) The Common Travel Area is to be maintained. That suggests to me ultimately we will fudge everything on the basis that actually next to no trade goes through Ireland or Northern Ireland for sound geographical reasons and therefore all this argy-bargy about customs etc is a bit pointless.
2) They are still looking to have us in the CFP, but have left open the possibility we might not be.
3) The Customs Union doesn't have an end date or an abandonment mechanism. That may however be becuase again, it applies to the transition period.
I think to be honest most people will accept this. To vote against it as a Remainer would be not so much courageous as suicidal.
It is very clearly drafted by the EU and it always puts the EU first (we told you so, people who voted leave):
It's long, but it's not comprehensive. There's a lot more haggling to go in here.
(I appreciate this may not be the most pressing question today though
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/draft_agreement_coloured.pdf
Indeed the clause appears rather slimmed down.
Verified account @bbclaurak
1m1 minute ago
Cabinet did reach a collective position, but certainly not unanimous. I'm told 9 ministers spoke against the agreement - Fox, Hunt, Williamson, Penny Mordaunt, Javid, Leadsom, Evans, Mordaunt and Grayling.
That was expected and is not a problem. The key thing is afterwards the CJEU is not the dispute resolution mechanism.
... and I suspect quite a few who ‘spoke out against it’ were complaining about specific terms which aren’t fundamental to the agreement.
Leavers have two options - either accept this, grudgingly... or risk a tossup between no deal and a referendum which could cancel Brexit, or result in no deal. No deal might be acceptable to the headbangers, but the retribution from the 80 or 90% of the country who don’t think that way would be severe.
People’s Voters face the same choice - and the likelihood of their desired outcome (a second referendum reversing the Brexit choice) is very, very low - and similar retribution.
(Although their case for a ranked choice referendum vote over the three options is slightly more justifiable.)
No doubt we’ll find out over the next couple of days just how poor the deal offered is (or isn’t).
This is going to be the awkward bit...
https://twitter.com/Raphael_Hogarth/status/1062802393971212288
Only traitors, French people, and Russian bots will be opposed to this deal.
He's doing his best to help me win circa 16k.
(With a degree of reluctance.)
Just losing thousands of second referendum supporters
This actually recognises the fait accompli that in those matters where North and South co-operate the EU will continue calling the shots at least while the transition is in progress. Whether the appearance of having closer ties to Dublin than London is acceptable to the DUP is a rather different question.
I am not convinced that is an accurate list, but Fox and Hunt did walk out together.