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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At one point this morning punters made it a 55% chance that TM

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited November 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At one point this morning punters made it a 55% chance that TMay would be out this year

When you get dramatic political days like today it is interesting for gamblers to look back and see how betting prices have moved as events have unfolded.  The chart above shows the last 24 hours on the “which year will Mrs May leave” betting market on Betfair. The odds are shown as percentages.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    edited November 2018
    TM 4 PM
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    TMICIPM
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Deselect the ERG MP's
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    edited November 2018
    Fourth and falling fast, like Boris.
  • TMICIPM

    What does the ICI bit mean?? Has baffled me for ages
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    RTMHBB
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    houndtang said:

    TMICIPM

    What does the ICI bit mean?? Has baffled me for ages
    Imperial Chemical Industries (no longer operating) taken over by Astra Zeneca IIRC
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    edited November 2018
    houndtang said:

    TMICIPM

    What does the ICI bit mean?? Has baffled me for ages
    Theresa May Is Crap Is Prime Minister

    It's a PB throwback to Ed Miliband

    #ThrowbackFriday
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 595
    houndtang said:

    TMICIPM

    What does the ICI bit mean?? Has baffled me for ages
    Is crap is?
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    edited November 2018

    Deselect the ERG MP's

    If they get what they want, a Hard Brexit, then I should imagine their prospects at the next GE could be diminished by tactical voting and opposition parties coming to informal agreements!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    This does seem pretty reminiscent.

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1063348828634562560

    Well, I won't make the same mistake I made last time. Shame it is not up to me though.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    The Brexiteers have a major problem: if they oust her, they don't have a credible leader figure who could command loyalty within the party. Their 'big beasts' (and they are only big in their own minds) such as Davis or Boris are total busted flushes.

    Essentially, TM may well remain in place because the people opposing her are shit. And shits.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    dodrade said:

    houndtang said:

    TMICIPM

    What does the ICI bit mean?? Has baffled me for ages
    Is crap is?
    You'd hope the standard of debate here wouldn't sink to that.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    The Brexiteers have a major problem: if they oust her, they don't have a credible leader figure who could command loyalty within the party. Their 'big beasts' (and they are only big in their own minds) such as Davis or Boris are total busted flushes.

    Essentially, TM may well remain in place because the people opposing her are shit. And shits.

    Quite, they claim to be patriots but are in fact the enemy within.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    One thing we have learnt is how utterly thick a lot of our MPs are, across all parties. I wouldn't hire them to make tea let alone anything more difficult. Look at Andrew Bridgen: a moron and arrogant with it. A great puffball of wind.

    Or Raab - like a frightened rabbit in front of a Select Committee. Or David Davis: breezily talking nonsense.

    The utter mediocrity of most of them is so depressing. Mediocrity coupled with arrogance and self-importance and lacking judgment, experience or empathy. And that's before we get onto the utter shits. That's our political class.
  • trawltrawl Posts: 142
    Off topic.

    Sorry if already mentioned - I’ve been busy all day - but the report in the Mail on the Onasanya trial says that it took an unexpected turn today. By-election coming up?
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    The Brexiteers have a major problem: if they oust her, they don't have a credible leader figure who could command loyalty within the party. Their 'big beasts' (and they are only big in their own minds) such as Davis or Boris are total busted flushes.

    Essentially, TM may well remain in place because the people opposing her are shit. And shits.

    I think some Tories think past performance with Johnson means future performance.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    The Brexiteers have a major problem: if they oust her, they don't have a credible leader figure who could command loyalty within the party. Their 'big beasts' (and they are only big in their own minds) such as Davis or Boris are total busted flushes.

    Essentially, TM may well remain in place because the people opposing her are shit. And shits.

    I don't even think the lack of a leader figure is necessarily the biggest problem. Picking a suitably hard brexity candidate by lot is hardly very sound, but it would work if it were the case that once May goes there will be agreement on a direction. But of course that's a load of piffle, yet these plans for 'negotiate a new deal' require the party to settle on a new strategy, very quickly, then start putting it into practice. And given the remain ultras in the party and the ones who are vocally against the ERG crowd, then even if we assume a good chunk are loyalists who will vote with the party line on this, whatever it may be, there is no hope that a change in strategy gets any easier under a new leader. Certainly not in the time available.

    There have to be plenty of MPs who recognise May has done a poor job and want her gone, and would even accept pretty much anyone in the post, but the key question is would it actually improve the party position? The DUP can presumably be brought back on side relatively easily, but the Tory splits not so much and so some number of Labour MPs become necessary again.
  • The Brexiteers have a major problem: if they oust her, they don't have a credible leader figure who could command loyalty within the party. Their 'big beasts' (and they are only big in their own minds) such as Davis or Boris are total busted flushes.

    Essentially, TM may well remain in place because the people opposing her are shit. And shits.

    Yes. They can oust Theresa May but not replace her.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    Cyclefree said:

    One thing we have learnt is how utterly thick a lot of our MPs are, across all parties. I wouldn't hire them to make tea let alone anything more difficult. Look at Andrew Bridgen: a moron and arrogant with it. A great puffball of wind.

    Or Raab - like a frightened rabbit in front of a Select Committee. Or David Davis: breezily talking nonsense.

    The utter mediocrity of most of them is so depressing. Mediocrity coupled with arrogance and self-importance and lacking judgment, experience or empathy. And that's before we get onto the utter shits. That's our political class.

    I'd say you have to have 15 years experience outside politics before you can be a candidate. Home maker/carer counts, SPAD adds another 15 years on......
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,049
    One thing we have learnt is how utterly thick a lot of our MPs are, across all parties. I wouldn't hire them to make tea let alone anything more difficult. Look at Andrew Bridgen: a moron and arrogant with it. A great puffball of wind.

    Or Raab - like a frightened rabbit in front of a Select Committee. Or David Davis: breezily talking nonsense.

    The utter mediocrity of most of them is so depressing. Mediocrity coupled with arrogance and self-importance and lacking judgment, experience or empathy. And that's before we get onto the utter shits. That's our political class."

    I'm re-posting this from the previous thread from Cyclefree. One of the best posts I've read here for a long, long time....


  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    trawl said:

    Off topic.

    Sorry if already mentioned - I’ve been busy all day - but the report in the Mail on the Onasanya trial says that it took an unexpected turn today. By-election coming up?

    How dare you talk about anything other than Brexit?!

    Looks like a very silly thing she is accused of. BBC write up needs a bit of polish though.

    The court has heard Ms Onasanya was sent a Notice of Intended Prosecution (NIP) after her car was clocked in Thorney, near Peterborough, at 22:03 BST on 24 July.

    She returned the paperwork naming the driver as Aleks Antipow, a previous tenant of a property the siblings rented out in Cambridge.

    The jury heard he was in Russia at the time of the incident had had never driven the MP's car.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-46236527
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    trawl said:

    Off topic.

    Sorry if already mentioned - I’ve been busy all day - but the report in the Mail on the Onasanya trial says that it took an unexpected turn today. By-election coming up?

    It was mentioned earlier:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-46236527

    It'll be interesting to watch how this case turns out. If there is a by-election, I hope Stewart Jackson doesn't stand ...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    kle4 said:

    trawl said:

    Off topic.

    Sorry if already mentioned - I’ve been busy all day - but the report in the Mail on the Onasanya trial says that it took an unexpected turn today. By-election coming up?

    How dare you talk about anything other than Brexit?!

    Looks like a very silly thing she is accused of. BBC write up needs a bit of polish though.

    The court has heard Ms Onasanya was sent a Notice of Intended Prosecution (NIP) after her car was clocked in Thorney, near Peterborough, at 22:03 BST on 24 July.

    She returned the paperwork naming the driver as Aleks Antipow, a previous tenant of a property the siblings rented out in Cambridge.

    The jury heard he was in Russia at the time of the incident had had never driven the MP's car.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-46236527
    The BBC reported yesterday that evidence was given that both her mobile phones were in the vicinity of the car's location at the time of the incident.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    kle4 said:

    trawl said:

    Off topic.

    Sorry if already mentioned - I’ve been busy all day - but the report in the Mail on the Onasanya trial says that it took an unexpected turn today. By-election coming up?

    How dare you talk about anything other than Brexit?!

    Looks like a very silly thing she is accused of. BBC write up needs a bit of polish though.

    The court has heard Ms Onasanya was sent a Notice of Intended Prosecution (NIP) after her car was clocked in Thorney, near Peterborough, at 22:03 BST on 24 July.

    She returned the paperwork naming the driver as Aleks Antipow, a previous tenant of a property the siblings rented out in Cambridge.

    The jury heard he was in Russia at the time of the incident had had never driven the MP's car.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-46236527
    On the subject of stupid MPs.....
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,056
    Cyclefree said:

    One thing we have learnt is how utterly thick a lot of our MPs are, across all parties. I wouldn't hire them to make tea let alone anything more difficult. Look at Andrew Bridgen: a moron and arrogant with it. A great puffball of wind.

    Or Raab - like a frightened rabbit in front of a Select Committee. Or David Davis: breezily talking nonsense.

    The utter mediocrity of most of them is so depressing. Mediocrity coupled with arrogance and self-importance and lacking judgment, experience or empathy. And that's before we get onto the utter shits. That's our political class.

    Sadly, I think Bridgen is pretty safe in NW Leics, as it is far from the marginal it was due to new housing. I may well do a bit for the opposition there next election though.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164

    trawl said:

    Off topic.

    Sorry if already mentioned - I’ve been busy all day - but the report in the Mail on the Onasanya trial says that it took an unexpected turn today. By-election coming up?

    It was mentioned earlier:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-46236527

    It'll be interesting to watch how this case turns out. If there is a by-election, I hope Stewart Jackson doesn't stand ...
    I think he's already said he wouldn't stand.
  • trawltrawl Posts: 142

    The Brexiteers have a major problem: if they oust her, they don't have a credible leader figure who could command loyalty within the party. Their 'big beasts' (and they are only big in their own minds) such as Davis or Boris are total busted flushes.

    Essentially, TM may well remain in place because the people opposing her are shit. And shits.

    Quite, they claim to be patriots but are in fact the enemy within.
    Don’t agree that leavers are the enemy within. But on Josias’s point what I don’t get is how exactly a change of leadership now and I stress now would change the fundamentals. You mention Boris so to take him as an example. Were he somehow PM on Monday what evidence is there that he would, say, be offered a better deal by the EU27, or command a larger number of votes than May on the EU issue in the HOC?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Cyclefree said:

    One thing we have learnt is how utterly thick a lot of our MPs are, across all parties. I wouldn't hire them to make tea let alone anything more difficult. Look at Andrew Bridgen: a moron and arrogant with it. A great puffball of wind.

    Or Raab - like a frightened rabbit in front of a Select Committee. Or David Davis: breezily talking nonsense.

    The utter mediocrity of most of them is so depressing. Mediocrity coupled with arrogance and self-importance and lacking judgment, experience or empathy. And that's before we get onto the utter shits. That's our political class.

    I'd say you have to have 15 years experience outside politics before you can be a candidate. Home maker/carer counts, SPAD adds another 15 years on......
    Ah, but that's ageist you see.

    A quick glance at wiki says Italy has the highest age limit for a position in the world - 50 years old at least to be President.

    I am surprised to learn we do have a different age limit to be a Lord vs an MP.

    I do stand by saying that there must be a gap of many years between someone being an MP and a Peer though. Doesn't address the wider mediocrity problem admittedly.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    edited November 2018
    Cyclefree said:

    One thing we have learnt is how utterly thick a lot of our MPs are, across all parties. I wouldn't hire them to make tea let alone anything more difficult. Look at Andrew Bridgen: a moron and arrogant with it. A great puffball of wind.

    Or Raab - like a frightened rabbit in front of a Select Committee. Or David Davis: breezily talking nonsense.

    The utter mediocrity of most of them is so depressing. Mediocrity coupled with arrogance and self-importance and lacking judgment, experience or empathy. And that's before we get onto the utter shits. That's our political class.

    What do you expect? Far too many of them are lawyers ... ;)
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited November 2018
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    trawl said:

    Off topic.

    Sorry if already mentioned - I’ve been busy all day - but the report in the Mail on the Onasanya trial says that it took an unexpected turn today. By-election coming up?

    How dare you talk about anything other than Brexit?!

    Looks like a very silly thing she is accused of. BBC write up needs a bit of polish though.

    The court has heard Ms Onasanya was sent a Notice of Intended Prosecution (NIP) after her car was clocked in Thorney, near Peterborough, at 22:03 BST on 24 July.

    She returned the paperwork naming the driver as Aleks Antipow, a previous tenant of a property the siblings rented out in Cambridge.

    The jury heard he was in Russia at the time of the incident had had never driven the MP's car.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-46236527
    The BBC reported yesterday that evidence was given that both her mobile phones were in the vicinity of the car's location at the time of the incident.
    The Busys don't like members of the public using terminological inexactitudes. .. They take considerable exception to it and when they think porkies have been told, they take it to the CPS
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    trawl said:

    The Brexiteers have a major problem: if they oust her, they don't have a credible leader figure who could command loyalty within the party. Their 'big beasts' (and they are only big in their own minds) such as Davis or Boris are total busted flushes.

    Essentially, TM may well remain in place because the people opposing her are shit. And shits.

    Quite, they claim to be patriots but are in fact the enemy within.
    Don’t agree that leavers are the enemy within. But on Josias’s point what I don’t get is how exactly a change of leadership now and I stress now would change the fundamentals. You mention Boris so to take him as an example. Were he somehow PM on Monday what evidence is there that he would, say, be offered a better deal by the EU27, or command a larger number of votes than May on the EU issue in the HOC?
    Listen to them , just listen to them..
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    trawl said:

    The Brexiteers have a major problem: if they oust her, they don't have a credible leader figure who could command loyalty within the party. Their 'big beasts' (and they are only big in their own minds) such as Davis or Boris are total busted flushes.

    Essentially, TM may well remain in place because the people opposing her are shit. And shits.

    Quite, they claim to be patriots but are in fact the enemy within.
    Don’t agree that leavers are the enemy within. But on Josias’s point what I don’t get is how exactly a change of leadership now and I stress now would change the fundamentals. You mention Boris so to take him as an example. Were he somehow PM on Monday what evidence is there that he would, say, be offered a better deal by the EU27, or command a larger number of votes than May on the EU issue in the HOC?
    Well quite. The latter - a larger number of votes on the EU issue - seems more plausible, assuming he would offer something more palatable to the harder brexity crowd, but it doesn't deal with the former - being offered a better deal - even though I, unlike some, agree it is technically possible to try.

    Let us not forget the EU heads will be facing their own criticisms that they were too generous, remarkable as they seems to us, the same happened with Cameron's negotiation, and while that irritated many, including me (since it demonstrated that they were not serious about reform since they appear to offer little then moan it is too much - though admittedly I would take it now, mea culpa), it is something they have to deal with, and offering more to us seems unlikely to fly. Labour at least, while stile implausible, might offer something significant in favour of the EU to gain something else. Boris and co wouldn't as they think we've gone too far already.
  • trawltrawl Posts: 142
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    trawl said:

    Off topic.

    Sorry if already mentioned - I’ve been busy all day - but the report in the Mail on the Onasanya trial says that it took an unexpected turn today. By-election coming up?

    How dare you talk about anything other than Brexit?!

    Looks like a very silly thing she is accused of. BBC write up needs a bit of polish though.

    The court has heard Ms Onasanya was sent a Notice of Intended Prosecution (NIP) after her car was clocked in Thorney, near Peterborough, at 22:03 BST on 24 July.

    She returned the paperwork naming the driver as Aleks Antipow, a previous tenant of a property the siblings rented out in Cambridge.

    The jury heard he was in Russia at the time of the incident had had never driven the MP's car.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-46236527
    The BBC reported yesterday that evidence was given that both her mobile phones were in the vicinity of the car's location at the time of the incident.
    Yes well the the Mail reports a last minute witness turned up to say she visited him alone in the relevant car late on the evening in question. Anyway we’ll see may be she’s got an explanation.
  • shiney2shiney2 Posts: 672
    trawl said:

    Off topic.

    Sorry if already mentioned - I’ve been busy all day - but the report in the Mail on the Onasanya trial says that it took an unexpected turn today. By-election coming up?

    Quite possibly. Her brother (co defendent I believe) went for 'guilty. m'lud', presumably to minimise likely punishment. Perhaps she plans to use the 'do you know who i am' defence..
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,056
    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    One thing we have learnt is how utterly thick a lot of our MPs are, across all parties. I wouldn't hire them to make tea let alone anything more difficult. Look at Andrew Bridgen: a moron and arrogant with it. A great puffball of wind.

    Or Raab - like a frightened rabbit in front of a Select Committee. Or David Davis: breezily talking nonsense.

    The utter mediocrity of most of them is so depressing. Mediocrity coupled with arrogance and self-importance and lacking judgment, experience or empathy. And that's before we get onto the utter shits. That's our political class.

    I'd say you have to have 15 years experience outside politics before you can be a candidate. Home maker/carer counts, SPAD adds another 15 years on......
    Ah, but that's ageist you see.

    A quick glance at wiki says Italy has the highest age limit for a position in the world - 50 years old at least to be President.

    I am surprised to learn we do have a different age limit to be a Lord vs an MP.

    I do stand by saying that there must be a gap of many years between someone being an MP and a Peer though. Doesn't address the wider mediocrity problem admittedly.
    There have always been a fair number of dullards, loonies and party hacks in Parliament.

    Its just that they get far more capability to show what dickheads they are now thanks to twitter.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    tlg86 said:

    trawl said:

    Off topic.

    Sorry if already mentioned - I’ve been busy all day - but the report in the Mail on the Onasanya trial says that it took an unexpected turn today. By-election coming up?

    It was mentioned earlier:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-46236527

    It'll be interesting to watch how this case turns out. If there is a by-election, I hope Stewart Jackson doesn't stand ...
    I think he's already said he wouldn't stand.
    The Tories have a new PPC for Peterborough, I looked at their website the other day. I think the new guy contested Middlesbrough in 2010 IIRC.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    shiney2 said:

    trawl said:

    Off topic.

    Sorry if already mentioned - I’ve been busy all day - but the report in the Mail on the Onasanya trial says that it took an unexpected turn today. By-election coming up?

    Quite possibly. Her brother (co defendent I believe) went for 'guilty. m'lud', presumably to minimise likely punishment. Perhaps she plans to use the 'do you know who i am' defence..
    I suppose given most would expect an MP to resign no matter the sentence even though it is not required unless it is over 12 months in prison, that it is always worth taking the chance. The prosecutors might do a bad job or some procedural error might save you (and yes, maybe she is innocent, for the sake of argument).
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    Cyclefree said:

    One thing we have learnt is how utterly thick a lot of our MPs are, across all parties. I wouldn't hire them to make tea let alone anything more difficult. Look at Andrew Bridgen: a moron and arrogant with it. A great puffball of wind.

    Or Raab - like a frightened rabbit in front of a Select Committee. Or David Davis: breezily talking nonsense.

    The utter mediocrity of most of them is so depressing. Mediocrity coupled with arrogance and self-importance and lacking judgment, experience or empathy. And that's before we get onto the utter shits. That's our political class.

    What do you expect? Far too many of them are lawyers ... ;)
    Far too many of them seem to have done no work of any kind at all - other than politics.

    At least a lawyer would understand that having an independent arbitration system as proposed by the EU is a sensible way of resolving an issue. But, no, the JRMs and IDSs seem to think that one party should, having entered into an agreement, be able to withdraw unilaterally without any consequences. No intelligent lawyer would come out with such garbage. An intelligent MP who really cared about Britain would understand that our traditional respect for the rule of law has been one of Britain's strengths and that wittering about ignoring laws is damaging that USP. And they dare call themselves patriots.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,741

    trawl said:

    Off topic.

    Sorry if already mentioned - I’ve been busy all day - but the report in the Mail on the Onasanya trial says that it took an unexpected turn today. By-election coming up?

    It was mentioned earlier:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-46236527

    It'll be interesting to watch how this case turns out. If there is a by-election, I hope Stewart Jackson doesn't stand ...
    If these allegations are true, she is an idiot who doesn't deserve to be a lawyer or an MP.

    What absolute moron would risk personal, professional and financial ruin for the sake of avoiding at worst a small fine and a month's driving ban by telling such an easily proved lie?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Cyclefree said:

    One thing we have learnt is how utterly thick a lot of our MPs are, across all parties. I wouldn't hire them to make tea let alone anything more difficult. Look at Andrew Bridgen: a moron and arrogant with it. A great puffball of wind.

    Or Raab - like a frightened rabbit in front of a Select Committee. Or David Davis: breezily talking nonsense.

    The utter mediocrity of most of them is so depressing. Mediocrity coupled with arrogance and self-importance and lacking judgment, experience or empathy. And that's before we get onto the utter shits. That's our political class.

    Morons. But that’s not a surprise is it? The way we treat our politicians you’d have to be mad or stupid to do the job. Especially when you can achieve more for the world outside politics.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Jonathan said:

    Cyclefree said:

    One thing we have learnt is how utterly thick a lot of our MPs are, across all parties. I wouldn't hire them to make tea let alone anything more difficult. Look at Andrew Bridgen: a moron and arrogant with it. A great puffball of wind.

    Or Raab - like a frightened rabbit in front of a Select Committee. Or David Davis: breezily talking nonsense.

    The utter mediocrity of most of them is so depressing. Mediocrity coupled with arrogance and self-importance and lacking judgment, experience or empathy. And that's before we get onto the utter shits. That's our political class.

    Morons. But that’s not a surprise is it? The way we treat our politicians you’d have to be mad or stupid to do the job. Especially when you can achieve more for the world outside politics.
    I do try to give them the benefit of the doubt for this very reason, I've seen at more local levels the dedication and ability people in public life can have, and the crap they can take even when they do not deserve it (and even though they volunteer for the role). One on one I have no doubt many MPs I have derided would be impressive, compelling individuals. And we do have to accept some blame for what our political classes develop into, because it only develops in ways that we either reward, or do not punish, else they'd behave differently.

    But sometimes they really do not help themselves.
  • shiney2shiney2 Posts: 672
    kle4 said:

    shiney2 said:

    trawl said:

    Off topic.

    Sorry if already mentioned - I’ve been busy all day - but the report in the Mail on the Onasanya trial says that it took an unexpected turn today. By-election coming up?

    Quite possibly. Her brother (co defendent I believe) went for 'guilty. m'lud', presumably to minimise likely punishment. Perhaps she plans to use the 'do you know who i am' defence..
    I suppose given most would expect an MP to resign no matter the sentence even though it is not required unless it is over 12 months in prison, that it is always worth taking the chance. The prosecutors might do a bad job or some procedural error might save you (and yes, maybe she is innocent, for the sake of argument).
    I understand courts like to award discounts to those who accept guilt at an early point in the proceedings. And the converse, of course.

    Obviously, respected Parliamentarians will be treated as special cases.

    Bill of Attainder perhaps.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited November 2018
    This turn around in the Mail is genuinely one of the precious few amusing things that brings relief to our politics at the moment.

    And which 'big guns' are rallying behind her? I don't watch much telly but I've not heard much about what Javid, Hunt and Hammond are up to.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    Jonathan said:

    Cyclefree said:

    One thing we have learnt is how utterly thick a lot of our MPs are, across all parties. I wouldn't hire them to make tea let alone anything more difficult. Look at Andrew Bridgen: a moron and arrogant with it. A great puffball of wind.

    Or Raab - like a frightened rabbit in front of a Select Committee. Or David Davis: breezily talking nonsense.

    The utter mediocrity of most of them is so depressing. Mediocrity coupled with arrogance and self-importance and lacking judgment, experience or empathy. And that's before we get onto the utter shits. That's our political class.

    Morons. But that’s not a surprise is it? The way we treat our politicians you’d have to be mad or stupid to do the job. Especially when you can achieve more for the world outside politics.
    It's chicken and egg, though isn't it. Perhaps we treat them badly because they behave so badly.

    How hard is it to think before speaking? Or texting? I mean, I don't want to get all nostalgic but it used to be a mark of an adult that they usually understood that you thought first and then opened your mouth. Or wrote things down. It's not hard. They're not babies, after all.

    If MPs want respect they need to earn it.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    edited November 2018
    Racing certainty that Corbyn will win the next election though after all this - a deal that is worse than staying in the EU and for which domestic policy has been entirely ignored; a bunch of clowns inside her party who couldn’t organise anything at all in a brewery as the only opposition, an alienated DUP who have been hung out to dry and £ 39 bn shelled out with future trade still to be negotiated.

    Makes Chamberlain and Eden look quite competent.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,762
    Can’t help feeling the tide turned a bit for May today. Yesterday was very rough but her enemies overshot and she proved dogged. Today her Cabinet rallied around somewhat and the 48 didn’t materialise. .The options other than her deal looked less likely and less palatable. A long way to go yet but she just might be past the worst.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535
    trawl said:

    Don’t agree that leavers are the enemy within. But on Josias’s point what I don’t get is how exactly a change of leadership now and I stress now would change the fundamentals. You mention Boris so to take him as an example. Were he somehow PM on Monday what evidence is there that he would, say, be offered a better deal by the EU27, or command a larger number of votes than May on the EU issue in the HOC?

    There isn't any evidence. It's fucking nonsense.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,056
    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    Cyclefree said:

    One thing we have learnt is how utterly thick a lot of our MPs are, across all parties. I wouldn't hire them to make tea let alone anything more difficult. Look at Andrew Bridgen: a moron and arrogant with it. A great puffball of wind.

    Or Raab - like a frightened rabbit in front of a Select Committee. Or David Davis: breezily talking nonsense.

    The utter mediocrity of most of them is so depressing. Mediocrity coupled with arrogance and self-importance and lacking judgment, experience or empathy. And that's before we get onto the utter shits. That's our political class.

    Morons. But that’s not a surprise is it? The way we treat our politicians you’d have to be mad or stupid to do the job. Especially when you can achieve more for the world outside politics.
    It's chicken and egg, though isn't it. Perhaps we treat them badly because they behave so badly.

    How hard is it to think before speaking? Or texting? I mean, I don't want to get all nostalgic but it used to be a mark of an adult that they usually understood that you thought first and then opened your mouth. Or wrote things down. It's not hard. They're not babies, after all.

    If MPs want respect they need to earn it.
    There are plenty of decent ones too, some in each party, but being sane and diligent doesnt make for a high media profile.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,741

    Racing certainty that Corbyn will win the next election though after all this - a deal that is worse than staying in the EU and for which domestic policy has been entirely ignored; a bunch of clowns inside her party who couldn’t organise anything at all in a brewery as the only opposition, an alienated DUP who have been hung out to dry and £ 39 bn shelled out with future trade still to be negotiated.

    Makes Chamberlain and Eden look quite competent.

    That it isn't - contrary to your claim - a racing certainty or even especially likely that he'll win is the most damning indictment imaginable of his awful leadership and weird policy offerings.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    kle4 said:

    shiney2 said:

    trawl said:

    Off topic.

    Sorry if already mentioned - I’ve been busy all day - but the report in the Mail on the Onasanya trial says that it took an unexpected turn today. By-election coming up?

    Quite possibly. Her brother (co defendent I believe) went for 'guilty. m'lud', presumably to minimise likely punishment. Perhaps she plans to use the 'do you know who i am' defence..
    I suppose given most would expect an MP to resign no matter the sentence even though it is not required unless it is over 12 months in prison, that it is always worth taking the chance. The prosecutors might do a bad job or some procedural error might save you (and yes, maybe she is innocent, for the sake of argument).
    Gerald Nabarro did not resign when convicted in the early 1970s. He claimed that his secretary was driving but the jury did not believe him.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    On Topic - if the 48 letters are in how soon would it be announced?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    DavidL said:

    Can’t help feeling the tide turned a bit for May today. Yesterday was very rough but her enemies overshot and she proved dogged. Today her Cabinet rallied around somewhat and the 48 didn’t materialise. .The options other than her deal looked less likely and less palatable. A long way to go yet but she just might be past the worst.

    I won't be the first person to reflect the 'tide turning' metaphor has always been a bit flawed, in that it will just turn yet again as that is what it does, so you had better be able to get further away next time.

    Personally I think May was able to stretch her head above the waves this time and the fever pitch of the attacks had to lessen intensity as that could not be sustained, but in doing so she has dropped down a few inches and when the tide returns next time?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    Guido just tweeted they say they have 48 definites now
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    edited November 2018
    ydoethur said:

    Racing certainty that Corbyn will win the next election though after all this - a deal that is worse than staying in the EU and for which domestic policy has been entirely ignored; a bunch of clowns inside her party who couldn’t organise anything at all in a brewery as the only opposition, an alienated DUP who have been hung out to dry and £ 39 bn shelled out with future trade still to be negotiated.

    Makes Chamberlain and Eden look quite competent.

    That it isn't - contrary to your claim - a racing certainty or even especially likely that he'll win is the most damning indictment imaginable of his awful leadership and weird policy offerings.
    Who is going to vote Tory after this shambles. The polls might currently say its level pegging but May lost a 20% lead to Corbyn in the last election campaign. This isn’t going to make life easier for her or the Tories.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,741
    justin124 said:

    kle4 said:

    shiney2 said:

    trawl said:

    Off topic.

    Sorry if already mentioned - I’ve been busy all day - but the report in the Mail on the Onasanya trial says that it took an unexpected turn today. By-election coming up?

    Quite possibly. Her brother (co defendent I believe) went for 'guilty. m'lud', presumably to minimise likely punishment. Perhaps she plans to use the 'do you know who i am' defence..
    I suppose given most would expect an MP to resign no matter the sentence even though it is not required unless it is over 12 months in prison, that it is always worth taking the chance. The prosecutors might do a bad job or some procedural error might save you (and yes, maybe she is innocent, for the sake of argument).
    Gerald Nabarro did not resign when convicted in the early 1970s. He claimed that his secretary was driving but the jury did not believe him.
    So on this occasion he was trying to screw his secretary in the front of his car?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    justin124 said:

    kle4 said:

    shiney2 said:

    trawl said:

    Off topic.

    Sorry if already mentioned - I’ve been busy all day - but the report in the Mail on the Onasanya trial says that it took an unexpected turn today. By-election coming up?

    Quite possibly. Her brother (co defendent I believe) went for 'guilty. m'lud', presumably to minimise likely punishment. Perhaps she plans to use the 'do you know who i am' defence..
    I suppose given most would expect an MP to resign no matter the sentence even though it is not required unless it is over 12 months in prison, that it is always worth taking the chance. The prosecutors might do a bad job or some procedural error might save you (and yes, maybe she is innocent, for the sake of argument).
    Gerald Nabarro did not resign when convicted in the early 1970s. He claimed that his secretary was driving but the jury did not believe him.
    That was a long time ago. I would be interested to see an MP plead guilty to perverting the course of justice and standing their ground, which they would be entitled to do depending on the sentence.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    kle4 said:

    shiney2 said:

    trawl said:

    Off topic.

    Sorry if already mentioned - I’ve been busy all day - but the report in the Mail on the Onasanya trial says that it took an unexpected turn today. By-election coming up?

    Quite possibly. Her brother (co defendent I believe) went for 'guilty. m'lud', presumably to minimise likely punishment. Perhaps she plans to use the 'do you know who i am' defence..
    I suppose given most would expect an MP to resign no matter the sentence even though it is not required unless it is over 12 months in prison, that it is always worth taking the chance. The prosecutors might do a bad job or some procedural error might save you (and yes, maybe she is innocent, for the sake of argument).
    Gerald Nabarro did not resign when convicted in the early 1970s. He claimed that his secretary was driving but the jury did not believe him.
    So on this occasion he was trying to screw his secretary in the front of his car?
    Not quite - though I believe she went along with his story. The Jury believed the policeman.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,741
    IanB2 said:

    Guido just tweeted they say they have 48 definites now

    Guido just tweeted that Steve Baker said they have 48 definite and probably 60 in total.

    Let's wait to hear from Graham Brady, if we ever do.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,056
    IanB2 said:

    Guido just tweeted they say they have 48 definites now

    Depends how often Brady checks his pigeonhole, I suppose.

    May will survive the VONC though.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    GIN1138 said:

    houndtang said:

    TMICIPM

    What does the ICI bit mean?? Has baffled me for ages
    Theresa May Is Crap Is Prime Minister

    It's a PB throwback to Ed Miliband

    #ThrowbackFriday
    Surely #KickcanFriday
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,741

    ydoethur said:

    Racing certainty that Corbyn will win the next election though after all this - a deal that is worse than staying in the EU and for which domestic policy has been entirely ignored; a bunch of clowns inside her party who couldn’t organise anything at all in a brewery as the only opposition, an alienated DUP who have been hung out to dry and £ 39 bn shelled out with future trade still to be negotiated.

    Makes Chamberlain and Eden look quite competent.

    That it isn't - contrary to your claim - a racing certainty or even especially likely that he'll win is the most damning indictment imaginable of his awful leadership and weird policy offerings.
    Who is going to vote Tory after this shambles. The polls might currently say its level pegging but May lost a 20% lead to Corbyn in the last election campaign. This isn’t going to make life easier for her or the Tories.
    Everyone who doesn't want to put a man who is an admirer of divers mass murderers into power.

    He is a hospital pass for the ERG. They're stupid, he's malevolent and stupid.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited November 2018

    ydoethur said:

    Racing certainty that Corbyn will win the next election though after all this - a deal that is worse than staying in the EU and for which domestic policy has been entirely ignored; a bunch of clowns inside her party who couldn’t organise anything at all in a brewery as the only opposition, an alienated DUP who have been hung out to dry and £ 39 bn shelled out with future trade still to be negotiated.

    Makes Chamberlain and Eden look quite competent.

    That it isn't - contrary to your claim - a racing certainty or even especially likely that he'll win is the most damning indictment imaginable of his awful leadership and weird policy offerings.
    Who is going to vote Tory after this shambles. The polls might currently say its level pegging but May lost a 20% lead to Corbyn in the last election campaign. This isn’t going to make life easier for her or the Tories.
    Being blunt, I do not see how any government could deliver a Brexit that loads of people would always have disliked (starting with a very large chunk of remainers, and then a variable amount of leavers who don't like the final shape of things), and come out on top at the end of it. I think their having any poll leads this far in is remarkable. Perhaps this deal, if approved, will make the job even harder than it already was, but I would have said that a government in power, in various forms, for 12 years overseeing years of austerity and a massive, divisive and impactful policy like Brexit, would always have struggled to be re-elected. It's best bet would have been to get something through, then have several years to try to rebuild trust and support in 2022.

    But with the DUP likely to retaliate if the deal goes through - making life impossible even if they say they won't bring down the government officially - and the party in even more shambles if they cannot get a deal through, I think an early election and a Tory loss is close to inevitable at this point.

    Which is a shame for them, but if they believe no deal is something which must be avoided, they will have to take that hit for the nation.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    IanB2 said:

    dodrade said:

    houndtang said:

    TMICIPM

    What does the ICI bit mean?? Has baffled me for ages
    Is crap is?
    You'd hope the standard of debate here wouldn't sink to that.
    It’s an in joke rather than a serious debating point

    A bit like ROTFWMTITA

    (Rolling on the floor with my trotters in the air)
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    Cyclefree said:

    One thing we have learnt is how utterly thick a lot of our MPs are, across all parties. I wouldn't hire them to make tea let alone anything more difficult. Look at Andrew Bridgen: a moron and arrogant with it. A great puffball of wind.

    Or Raab - like a frightened rabbit in front of a Select Committee. Or David Davis: breezily talking nonsense.

    The utter mediocrity of most of them is so depressing. Mediocrity coupled with arrogance and self-importance and lacking judgment, experience or empathy. And that's before we get onto the utter shits. That's our political class.

    Morons. But that’s not a surprise is it? The way we treat our politicians you’d have to be mad or stupid to do the job. Especially when you can achieve more for the world outside politics.
    It's chicken and egg, though isn't it. Perhaps we treat them badly because they behave so badly.

    How hard is it to think before speaking? Or texting? I mean, I don't want to get all nostalgic but it used to be a mark of an adult that they usually understood that you thought first and then opened your mouth. Or wrote things down. It's not hard. They're not babies, after all.

    If MPs want respect they need to earn it.
    Chicken and Egg, but perhaps more one than the other. I would have done it, I probably could still do it. I certainly have the interest. But I found more good can be achieved working outside politics than in it. And what’s more you can do it and have a private life. Fewer church halls. More weekends.

    To do it you have to be single minded and prepared to tolerate the most extreme cliques and boredom.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Cyclefree said:

    One thing we have learnt is how utterly thick a lot of our MPs are, across all parties. I wouldn't hire them to make tea let alone anything more difficult. Look at Andrew Bridgen: a moron and arrogant with it. A great puffball of wind.

    Or Raab - like a frightened rabbit in front of a Select Committee. Or David Davis: breezily talking nonsense.

    The utter mediocrity of most of them is so depressing. Mediocrity coupled with arrogance and self-importance and lacking judgment, experience or empathy. And that's before we get onto the utter shits. That's our political class.

    I was talking to someone on Monday

    She was a great public servant who was good at it. Chased out of service by a lying boss, crazed media and pot-shotting politicians with no interest in the truth

    A real loss to the country. But no way back.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    On Topic - if the 48 letters are in how soon would it be announced?

    Someone earlier was tweeting that a bunch of people were waiting until Monday to send in their letters, for whatever point that is supposed to have, but even if he has 48 now I would think he would wait until Monday to annouce.
  • kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Racing certainty that Corbyn will win the next election though after all this - a deal that is worse than staying in the EU and for which domestic policy has been entirely ignored; a bunch of clowns inside her party who couldn’t organise anything at all in a brewery as the only opposition, an alienated DUP who have been hung out to dry and £ 39 bn shelled out with future trade still to be negotiated.

    Makes Chamberlain and Eden look quite competent.

    That it isn't - contrary to your claim - a racing certainty or even especially likely that he'll win is the most damning indictment imaginable of his awful leadership and weird policy offerings.
    Who is going to vote Tory after this shambles. The polls might currently say its level pegging but May lost a 20% lead to Corbyn in the last election campaign. This isn’t going to make life easier for her or the Tories.
    Being blunt, I do not see how any government could deliver a Brexit that loads of people would always have disliked (starting with a very large chunk of remainers, and then a variable amount of leavers who don't like the final shape of things), and come out on top at the end of it. I think their having any poll leads this far in is remarkable. Perhaps this deal, if approved, will make the job even harder than it already was, but I would have said that a government in power, in various forms, for 12 years overseeing years of austerity and a massive, divisive and impactful policy like Brexit, would always have struggled to be re-elected. It's best bet would have been to get something through, then have several years to try to rebuild trust and support in 2022.

    But with the DUP likely to retaliate if the deal goes through - making life impossible even if they say they won't bring down the government officially - and the party in even more shambles if they cannot get a deal through, I think an early election and a Tory loss is close to inevitable at this point.

    Which is a shame for them, but if they believe no deal is something which must be avoided, they will have to take that hit for the nation.
    Don’t think you’re adding anything with all this.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    trawl said:

    Off topic.

    Sorry if already mentioned - I’ve been busy all day - but the report in the Mail on the Onasanya trial says that it took an unexpected turn today. By-election coming up?

    How dare you talk about anything other than Brexit?!

    Looks like a very silly thing she is accused of. BBC write up needs a bit of polish though.

    The court has heard Ms Onasanya was sent a Notice of Intended Prosecution (NIP) after her car was clocked in Thorney, near Peterborough, at 22:03 BST on 24 July.

    She returned the paperwork naming the driver as Aleks Antipow, a previous tenant of a property the siblings rented out in Cambridge.

    The jury heard he was in Russia at the time of the incident had had never driven the MP's car.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-46236527
    The BBC reported yesterday that evidence was given that both her mobile phones were in the vicinity of the car's location at the time of the incident.
    As a solicitor, she will get a top-end tariff if guilty.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,741
    edited November 2018
    Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    dodrade said:

    houndtang said:

    TMICIPM

    What does the ICI bit mean?? Has baffled me for ages
    Is crap is?
    You'd hope the standard of debate here wouldn't sink to that.
    It’s an in joke rather than a serious debating point

    A bit like ROTFWMTITA

    (Rolling on the floor with my trotters in the air)
    You know Charles, I try never to make puns on your surname for a number of reasons - a respect for your wish not to use it on this forum, good manners, an understanding that it isn't (contrary to Patrick O'Brian) fair to pun in someone's name. I think I've broken that resolution once, when retelling a story about a distant cousin of yours.

    But when you put forward acronyms with 'tit' in them, you tempt me sorely.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,762
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    Can’t help feeling the tide turned a bit for May today. Yesterday was very rough but her enemies overshot and she proved dogged. Today her Cabinet rallied around somewhat and the 48 didn’t materialise. .The options other than her deal looked less likely and less palatable. A long way to go yet but she just might be past the worst.

    I won't be the first person to reflect the 'tide turning' metaphor has always been a bit flawed, in that it will just turn yet again as that is what it does, so you had better be able to get further away next time.

    Personally I think May was able to stretch her head above the waves this time and the fever pitch of the attacks had to lessen intensity as that could not be sustained, but in doing so she has dropped down a few inches and when the tide returns next time?
    Tides come in and out right enough and further crisis points are inevitable but I personally think that the last 2 days have left her higher up the beach than she was before. There are only so many cabinet ministers who can resign, most are now in for the long haul, threats of letters are going to be met with derisive laughter and the alternatives are being questioned.

    She is a long way from a majority in the Commons, that is the biggest problem but she looks stronger.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,741

    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    trawl said:

    Off topic.

    Sorry if already mentioned - I’ve been busy all day - but the report in the Mail on the Onasanya trial says that it took an unexpected turn today. By-election coming up?

    How dare you talk about anything other than Brexit?!

    Looks like a very silly thing she is accused of. BBC write up needs a bit of polish though.

    The court has heard Ms Onasanya was sent a Notice of Intended Prosecution (NIP) after her car was clocked in Thorney, near Peterborough, at 22:03 BST on 24 July.

    She returned the paperwork naming the driver as Aleks Antipow, a previous tenant of a property the siblings rented out in Cambridge.

    The jury heard he was in Russia at the time of the incident had had never driven the MP's car.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-46236527
    The BBC reported yesterday that evidence was given that both her mobile phones were in the vicinity of the car's location at the time of the incident.
    As a solicitor, she will get a top-end tariff if guilty.
    Are we talking 5G? :smiley:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Racing certainty that Corbyn will win the next election though after all this - a deal that is worse than staying in the EU and for which domestic policy has been entirely ignored; a bunch of clowns inside her party who couldn’t organise anything at all in a brewery as the only opposition, an alienated DUP who have been hung out to dry and £ 39 bn shelled out with future trade still to be negotiated.

    Makes Chamberlain and Eden look quite competent.

    That it isn't - contrary to your claim - a racing certainty or even especially likely that he'll win is the most damning indictment imaginable of his awful leadership and weird policy offerings.
    Who is going to vote Tory after this shambles. The polls might currently say its level pegging but May lost a 20% lead to Corbyn in the last election campaign. This isn’t going to make life easier for her or the Tories.
    Being blunt, I do not see how any government could deliver a Brexit that loads of people would always have disliked (starting with a very large chunk of remainers, and then a variable amount of leavers who don't like the final shape of things), and come out on top at the end of it. I think their having any poll leads this far in is remarkable. Perhaps this deal, if approved, will make the job even harder than it already was, but I would have said that a government in power, in various forms, for 12 years overseeing years of austerity and a massive, divisive and impactful policy like Brexit, would always have struggled to be re-elected. It's best bet would have been to get something through, then have several years to try to rebuild trust and support in 2022.

    But with the DUP likely to retaliate if the deal goes through - making life impossible even if they say they won't bring down the government officially - and the party in even more shambles if they cannot get a deal through, I think an early election and a Tory loss is close to inevitable at this point.

    Which is a shame for them, but if they believe no deal is something which must be avoided, they will have to take that hit for the nation.
    Don’t think you’re adding anything with all this.
    Are any of us? You seem concerned the present shambles will make things very difficult for the Conservative and Unionist Party in a future election, and I put forth an opinion on that topic. I wasn't expecting to solve the issue or anything.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    kle4 said:

    trawl said:

    Off topic.

    Sorry if already mentioned - I’ve been busy all day - but the report in the Mail on the Onasanya trial says that it took an unexpected turn today. By-election coming up?

    How dare you talk about anything other than Brexit?!

    Looks like a very silly thing she is accused of. BBC write up needs a bit of polish though.

    The court has heard Ms Onasanya was sent a Notice of Intended Prosecution (NIP) after her car was clocked in Thorney, near Peterborough, at 22:03 BST on 24 July.

    She returned the paperwork naming the driver as Aleks Antipow, a previous tenant of a property the siblings rented out in Cambridge.

    The jury heard he was in Russia at the time of the incident had had never driven the MP's car.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-46236527
    Lying to the police/courts strikes me as serious not silly
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    re-Nabarro
    'On the night of 21 May 1971, Nabarro's car NAB 1 was seen to swerve at speed the wrong way round a roundabout at Totton, Hampshire. It was occupied by Nabarro and his company secretary, Margaret Mason. The police charged him as the driver, but Nabarro insisted it was his secretary, who agreed with his story. He was found guilty by a jury at Winchester Crown Court; the judge pronounced his behaviour "outrageous" and fined him £250. He announced his appeal on the court steps immediately afterwards, accompanied by his private secretary Christine Holman. He suffered two strokes in the following year and was cleared in the second trial. Many commentators of the time believed that the jury had brought in their verdict to spare Nabarro the horrors of a perjury trial.

    A few months later, having recently announced a decision to retire from the Commons on grounds of health, he died at his home, Orchard House, in Broadway, Worcestershire on 18 November 1973.']
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Racing certainty that Corbyn will win the next election though after all this - a deal that is worse than staying in the EU and for which domestic policy has been entirely ignored; a bunch of clowns inside her party who couldn’t organise anything at all in a brewery as the only opposition, an alienated DUP who have been hung out to dry and £ 39 bn shelled out with future trade still to be negotiated.

    Makes Chamberlain and Eden look quite competent.

    That it isn't - contrary to your claim - a racing certainty or even especially likely that he'll win is the most damning indictment imaginable of his awful leadership and weird policy offerings.
    Who is going to vote Tory after this shambles. The polls might currently say its level pegging but May lost a 20% lead to Corbyn in the last election campaign. This isn’t going to make life easier for her or the Tories.
    Everyone who doesn't want to put a man who is an admirer of divers mass murderers into power.

    He is a hospital pass for the ERG. They're stupid, he's malevolent and stupid.

    I have no argument with you describing him as malevolent but he is far more electorally appealing than any Tory, especially May, as he showed in the last election. All the Tories will have to offer at the next election is a shambolic Brexit or non Brexit and the diatribe that the alternative to them is Corbyn. Didn’t work last time and I don’t see it working next time - especially after all this.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited November 2018
    Charles said:

    kle4 said:

    trawl said:

    Off topic.

    Sorry if already mentioned - I’ve been busy all day - but the report in the Mail on the Onasanya trial says that it took an unexpected turn today. By-election coming up?

    How dare you talk about anything other than Brexit?!

    Looks like a very silly thing she is accused of. BBC write up needs a bit of polish though.

    The court has heard Ms Onasanya was sent a Notice of Intended Prosecution (NIP) after her car was clocked in Thorney, near Peterborough, at 22:03 BST on 24 July.

    She returned the paperwork naming the driver as Aleks Antipow, a previous tenant of a property the siblings rented out in Cambridge.

    The jury heard he was in Russia at the time of the incident had had never driven the MP's car.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-46236527
    Lying to the police/courts strikes me as serious not silly
    Of course it is serious. The silliness is why she would make that choice in the first place, if guilty, when it was such a minor thing in the first place. I should have been clearer - silly thing she was accused of avoiding.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,741

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Racing certainty that Corbyn will win the next election though after all this - a deal that is worse than staying in the EU and for which domestic policy has been entirely ignored; a bunch of clowns inside her party who couldn’t organise anything at all in a brewery as the only opposition, an alienated DUP who have been hung out to dry and £ 39 bn shelled out with future trade still to be negotiated.

    Makes Chamberlain and Eden look quite competent.

    That it isn't - contrary to your claim - a racing certainty or even especially likely that he'll win is the most damning indictment imaginable of his awful leadership and weird policy offerings.
    Who is going to vote Tory after this shambles. The polls might currently say its level pegging but May lost a 20% lead to Corbyn in the last election campaign. This isn’t going to make life easier for her or the Tories.
    Everyone who doesn't want to put a man who is an admirer of divers mass murderers into power.

    He is a hospital pass for the ERG. They're stupid, he's malevolent and stupid.

    I have no argument with you describing him as malevolent but he is far more electorally appealing than any Tory, especially May, as he showed in the last election. All the Tories will have to offer at the next election is a shambolic Brexit or non Brexit and the diatribe that the alternative to them is Corbyn. Didn’t work last time and I don’t see it working next time - especially after all this.
    He was not more electorally appealing than the Tories last time. That's why he lost.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited November 2018
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Racing certainty that Corbyn will win the next election though after all this - a deal that is worse than staying in the EU and for which domestic policy has been entirely ignored; a bunch of clowns inside her party who couldn’t organise anything at all in a brewery as the only opposition, an alienated DUP who have been hung out to dry and £ 39 bn shelled out with future trade still to be negotiated.

    Makes Chamberlain and Eden look quite competent.

    That it isn't - contrary to your claim - a racing certainty or even especially likely that he'll win is the most damning indictment imaginable of his awful leadership and weird policy offerings.
    Who is going to vote Tory after this shambles. The polls might currently say its level pegging but May lost a 20% lead to Corbyn in the last election campaign. This isn’t going to make life easier for her or the Tories.
    Everyone who doesn't want to put a man who is an admirer of divers mass murderers into power.

    He is a hospital pass for the ERG. They're stupid, he's malevolent and stupid.

    I have no argument with you describing him as malevolent but he is far more electorally appealing than any Tory, especially May, as he showed in the last election. All the Tories will have to offer at the next election is a shambolic Brexit or non Brexit and the diatribe that the alternative to them is Corbyn. Didn’t work last time and I don’t see it working next time - especially after all this.
    He was not more electorally appealing than the Tories last time. That's why he lost.
    But he achieved a very substantial swing in his direction in the course of the campaign.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited November 2018
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Racing certainty that Corbyn will win the next election though after all this - a deal that is worse than staying in the EU and for which domestic policy has been entirely ignored; a bunch of clowns inside her party who couldn’t organise anything at all in a brewery as the only opposition, an alienated DUP who have been hung out to dry and £ 39 bn shelled out with future trade still to be negotiated.

    Makes Chamberlain and Eden look quite competent.

    That it isn't - contrary to your claim - a racing certainty or even especially likely that he'll win is the most damning indictment imaginable of his awful leadership and weird policy offerings.
    Who is going to vote Tory after this shambles. The polls might currently say its level pegging but May lost a 20% lead to Corbyn in the last election campaign. This isn’t going to make life easier for her or the Tories.
    Everyone who doesn't want to put a man who is an admirer of divers mass murderers into power.

    He is a hospital pass for the ERG. They're stupid, he's malevolent and stupid.

    I have no argument with you describing him as malevolent but he is far more electorally appealing than any Tory, especially May, as he showed in the last election. All the Tories will have to offer at the next election is a shambolic Brexit or non Brexit and the diatribe that the alternative to them is Corbyn. Didn’t work last time and I don’t see it working next time - especially after all this.
    He was not more electorally appealing than the Tories last time. That's why he lost.
    Oh, he will be next time. The Labour splitters are quiet, the government a farce which means Labour are close to power and they won't rock the boat in advance of him being PM, so he will have a united party, him as a good campaigner with some easy soundbites to throw out. I don't know who the next Tory leader will be, but they will have a lot of problems hamstringing them to make maintaining the level last time difficult.
  • ydoethur said:

    Racing certainty that Corbyn will win the next election though after all this - a deal that is worse than staying in the EU and for which domestic policy has been entirely ignored; a bunch of clowns inside her party who couldn’t organise anything at all in a brewery as the only opposition, an alienated DUP who have been hung out to dry and £ 39 bn shelled out with future trade still to be negotiated.

    Makes Chamberlain and Eden look quite competent.

    That it isn't - contrary to your claim - a racing certainty or even especially likely that he'll win is the most damning indictment imaginable of his awful leadership and weird policy offerings.
    Who is going to vote Tory after this shambles. The polls might currently say its level pegging but May lost a 20% lead to Corbyn in the last election campaign. This isn’t going to make life easier for her or the Tories.
    Possibly but I think things are very fluid at the moment and we have to remember Corbyn and McDonell. A decent centre-left Labour leadership would be well ahead in the polls and clear favourites. Current LP leadership makes outcome of next election very uncertain despite current Tory travails. The other thing to bear in mind is that Labour are soon to be on the spot themselves over Brexit. Their apparent current position(s) are laughable. If Corbyn and McDonell follow their Brexit inclinations or prioritise destabilising government to force an election they may lose the strongly pro-EU younger voters that swung behind them in unlikely to be repeated Corbyn mania.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,211
    A by-election early in the New Year in a seat with a 607 majority would be a riveting affair. Oh my paws and whiskers....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,741
    edited November 2018
    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Racing certainty that Corbyn will win the next election though after all this - a deal that is worse than staying in the EU and for which domestic policy has been entirely ignored; a bunch of clowns inside her party who couldn’t organise anything at all in a brewery as the only opposition, an alienated DUP who have been hung out to dry and £ 39 bn shelled out with future trade still to be negotiated.

    Makes Chamberlain and Eden look quite competent.

    That it isn't - contrary to your claim - a racing certainty or even especially likely that he'll win is the most damning indictment imaginable of his awful leadership and weird policy offerings.
    Who is going to vote Tory after this shambles. The polls might currently say its level pegging but May lost a 20% lead to Corbyn in the last election campaign. This isn’t going to make life easier for her or the Tories.
    Everyone who doesn't want to put a man who is an admirer of divers mass murderers into power.

    He is a hospital pass for the ERG. They're stupid, he's malevolent and stupid.

    I have no argument with you describing him as malevolent but he is far more electorally appealing than any Tory, especially May, as he showed in the last election. All the Tories will have to offer at the next election is a shambolic Brexit or non Brexit and the diatribe that the alternative to them is Corbyn. Didn’t work last time and I don’t see it working next time - especially after all this.
    He was not more electorally appealing than the Tories last time. That's why he lost.
    But he achieved a very substantial swing in his direction in the course of the campaign.
    Again, he rallied a lot of votes behind him. He persuaded very few switchers.

    The much larger risk for the Tories is that their supporters are less motivated to vote. As I have said previously, I think differential turnout will be the decisive factor next time.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,056
    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    dodrade said:

    houndtang said:

    TMICIPM

    What does the ICI bit mean?? Has baffled me for ages
    Is crap is?
    You'd hope the standard of debate here wouldn't sink to that.
    It’s an in joke rather than a serious debating point

    A bit like ROTFWMTITA

    (Rolling on the floor with my trotters in the air)
    You know Charles, I try never to make puns on your surname for a number of reasons - a respect for your wish not to use it on this forum, good manners, an understanding that it isn't (contrary to Patrick O'Brian) fair to pun in someone's name. I think I've broken that resolution once, when retelling a story about a distant cousin of yours.

    But when you put forward acronyms with 'tit' in them, you tempt me sorely.
    It is important that we keep a breast of good puns, in mammary of times past.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,741
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    dodrade said:

    houndtang said:

    TMICIPM

    What does the ICI bit mean?? Has baffled me for ages
    Is crap is?
    You'd hope the standard of debate here wouldn't sink to that.
    It’s an in joke rather than a serious debating point

    A bit like ROTFWMTITA

    (Rolling on the floor with my trotters in the air)
    You know Charles, I try never to make puns on your surname for a number of reasons - a respect for your wish not to use it on this forum, good manners, an understanding that it isn't (contrary to Patrick O'Brian) fair to pun in someone's name. I think I've broken that resolution once, when retelling a story about a distant cousin of yours.

    But when you put forward acronyms with 'tit' in them, you tempt me sorely.
    It is important that we keep a breast of good puns, in mammary of times past.
    Stop trying to milk the reference. It sucks.
  • Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    dodrade said:

    houndtang said:

    TMICIPM

    What does the ICI bit mean?? Has baffled me for ages
    Is crap is?
    You'd hope the standard of debate here wouldn't sink to that.
    It’s an in joke rather than a serious debating point

    A bit like ROTFWMTITA

    (Rolling on the floor with my trotters in the air)
    Trotters? Lovely-jubbly!
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Racing certainty that Corbyn will win the next election though after all this - a deal that is worse than staying in the EU and for which domestic policy has been entirely ignored; a bunch of clowns inside her party who couldn’t organise anything at all in a brewery as the only opposition, an alienated DUP who have been hung out to dry and £ 39 bn shelled out with future trade still to be negotiated.

    Makes Chamberlain and Eden look quite competent.

    That it isn't - contrary to your claim - a racing certainty or even especially likely that he'll win is the most damning indictment imaginable of his awful leadership and weird policy offerings.
    Who is going to vote Tory after this shambles. The polls might currently say its level pegging but May lost a 20% lead to Corbyn in the last election campaign. This isn’t going to make life easier for her or the Tories.
    Everyone who doesn't want to put a man who is an admirer of divers mass murderers into power.

    He is a hospital pass for the ERG. They're stupid, he's malevolent and stupid.

    I have no argument with you describing him as malevolent but he is far more electorally appealing than any Tory, especially May, as he showed in the last election. All the Tories will have to offer at the next election is a shambolic Brexit or non Brexit and the diatribe that the alternative to them is Corbyn. Didn’t work last time and I don’t see it working next time - especially after all this.
    He was not more electorally appealing than the Tories last time. That's why he lost.
    He started off 20% behind in the polls and ended up a net winner on the night. I don’t think May can take any credit for the Scottish turnaround which effectively saved her.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    trawl said:

    Off topic.

    Sorry if already mentioned - I’ve been busy all day - but the report in the Mail on the Onasanya trial says that it took an unexpected turn today. By-election coming up?

    How dare you talk about anything other than Brexit?!

    Looks like a very silly thing she is accused of. BBC write up needs a bit of polish though.

    The court has heard Ms Onasanya was sent a Notice of Intended Prosecution (NIP) after her car was clocked in Thorney, near Peterborough, at 22:03 BST on 24 July.

    She returned the paperwork naming the driver as Aleks Antipow, a previous tenant of a property the siblings rented out in Cambridge.

    The jury heard he was in Russia at the time of the incident had had never driven the MP's car.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-46236527
    The BBC reported yesterday that evidence was given that both her mobile phones were in the vicinity of the car's location at the time of the incident.
    As a solicitor, she will get a top-end tariff if guilty.
    Are we talking 5G? :smiley:
    I suspect her phone may have to be dropped into her cell by drone....
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Racing certainty that Corbyn will win the next election though after all this - a deal that is worse than staying in the EU and for which domestic policy has been entirely ignored; a bunch of clowns inside her party who couldn’t organise anything at all in a brewery as the only opposition, an alienated DUP who have been hung out to dry and £ 39 bn shelled out with future trade still to be negotiated.

    Makes Chamberlain and Eden look quite competent.

    That it isn't - contrary to your claim - a racing certainty or even especially likely that he'll win is the most damning indictment imaginable of his awful leadership and weird policy offerings.
    Who is going to vote Tory after this shambles. The polls might currently say its level pegging but May lost a 20% lead to Corbyn in the last election campaign. This isn’t going to make life easier for her or the Tories.
    Everyone who doesn't want to put a man who is an admirer of divers mass murderers into power.

    He is a hospital pass for the ERG. They're stupid, he's malevolent and stupid.
    but do people really see Corbyn that way? I dunno.
    it might be the people that worry about him are an intellectual minority.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited November 2018
    OT I have just completed the third and final chapter of The Banner Saga (Viking inspired turn based RPG). Combat gameplay is a bit repetitive, and the storytelling is haphazard at times, but still rather compelling if you play all three parts one after the other.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Racing certainty that Corbyn will win the next election though after all this - a deal that is worse than staying in the EU and for which domestic policy has been entirely ignored; a bunch of clowns inside her party who couldn’t organise anything at all in a brewery as the only opposition, an alienated DUP who have been hung out to dry and £ 39 bn shelled out with future trade still to be negotiated.

    Makes Chamberlain and Eden look quite competent.

    That it isn't - contrary to your claim - a racing certainty or even especially likely that he'll win is the most damning indictment imaginable of his awful leadership and weird policy offerings.
    Who is going to vote Tory after this shambles. The polls might currently say its level pegging but May lost a 20% lead to Corbyn in the last election campaign. This isn’t going to make life easier for her or the Tories.
    Everyone who doesn't want to put a man who is an admirer of divers mass murderers into power.

    He is a hospital pass for the ERG. They're stupid, he's malevolent and stupid.

    I have no argument with you describing him as malevolent but he is far more electorally appealing than any Tory, especially May, as he showed in the last election. All the Tories will have to offer at the next election is a shambolic Brexit or non Brexit and the diatribe that the alternative to them is Corbyn. Didn’t work last time and I don’t see it working next time - especially after all this.
    He was not more electorally appealing than the Tories last time. That's why he lost.
    But he achieved a very substantial swing in his direction in the course of the campaign.
    Again, he rallied a lot of votes behind him. He persuaded very few switchers.

    The much larger risk for the Tories is that their supporters are less motivated to vote. As I have said previously, I think differential turnout will be the decisive factor next time.
    He achieved a much higher vote share than Gordon Brown in 2010 , than Tony Blair in 2005 , and than Harold Wilson at both 1974 elections.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,741
    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Racing certainty that Corbyn will win the next election though after all this - a deal that is worse than staying in the EU and for which domestic policy has been entirely ignored; a bunch of clowns inside her party who couldn’t organise anything at all in a brewery as the only opposition, an alienated DUP who have been hung out to dry and £ 39 bn shelled out with future trade still to be negotiated.

    Makes Chamberlain and Eden look quite competent.

    That it isn't - contrary to your claim - a racing certainty or even especially likely that he'll win is the most damning indictment imaginable of his awful leadership and weird policy offerings.
    Who is going to vote Tory after this shambles. The polls might currently say its level pegging but May lost a 20% lead to Corbyn in the last election campaign. This isn’t going to make life easier for her or the Tories.
    Everyone who doesn't want to put a man who is an admirer of divers mass murderers into power.

    He is a hospital pass for the ERG. They're stupid, he's malevolent and stupid.

    I have no argument with you describing him as malevolent but he is far more electorally appealing than any Tory, especially May, as he showed in the last election. All the Tories will have to offer at the next election is a shambolic Brexit or non Brexit and the diatribe that the alternative to them is Corbyn. Didn’t work last time and I don’t see it working next time - especially after all this.
    He was not more electorally appealing than the Tories last time. That's why he lost.
    But he achieved a very substantial swing in his direction in the course of the campaign.
    Again, he rallied a lot of votes behind him. He persuaded very few switchers.

    The much larger risk for the Tories is that their supporters are less motivated to vote. As I have said previously, I think differential turnout will be the decisive factor next time.
    He achieved a much higher vote share than Gordon Brown in 2010 , than Tony Blair in 2005 , and than Harold Wilson at both 1974 elections.
    And he still lost.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,211
    By the way, Theresa May (and her supporters) should be encouraging the VONC. If she wins - and I think she would - then when the Deal is defeated (as it assuredly will be), then she need not resign and can at least live to fight another day.....not that may be an appealing prospect.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Racing certainty that Corbyn will win the next election though after all this - a deal that is worse than staying in the EU and for which domestic policy has been entirely ignored; a bunch of clowns inside her party who couldn’t organise anything at all in a brewery as the only opposition, an alienated DUP who have been hung out to dry and £ 39 bn shelled out with future trade still to be negotiated.

    Makes Chamberlain and Eden look quite competent.

    That it isn't - contrary to your claim - a racing certainty or even especially likely that he'll win is the most damning indictment imaginable of his awful leadership and weird policy offerings.
    Who is going to vote Tory after this shambles. The polls might currently say its level pegging but May lost a 20% lead to Corbyn in the last election campaign. This isn’t going to make life easier for her or the Tories.
    Everyone who doesn't want to put a man who is an admirer of divers mass murderers into power.

    He is a hospital pass for the ERG. They're stupid, he's malevolent and stupid.

    I have no argument with you describing him as malevolent but he is far more electorally appealing than any Tory, especially May, as he showed in the last election. All the Tories will have to offer at the next election is a shambolic Brexit or non Brexit and the diatribe that the alternative to them is Corbyn. Didn’t work last time and I don’t see it working next time - especially after all this.
    He was not more electorally appealing than the Tories last time. That's why he lost.
    But he achieved a very substantial swing in his direction in the course of the campaign.
    Again, he rallied a lot of votes behind him. He persuaded very few switchers.

    The much larger risk for the Tories is that their supporters are less motivated to vote. As I have said previously, I think differential turnout will be the decisive factor next time.
    He achieved a much higher vote share than Gordon Brown in 2010 , than Tony Blair in 2005 , and than Harold Wilson at both 1974 elections.
    And he still lost.
    Indeed - but it was an election which nobody won.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,741
    JohnO said:

    By the way, Theresa May (and her supporters) should be encouraging the VONC. If she wins - and I think she would - then when the Deal is defeated (as it assuredly will be), then she need not resign and can at least live to fight another day.....not that may be an appealing prospect.

    Which is why only somebody with the intellect of a squashed hedgehog would precipitate one now.

    Unfortunately the ERG don't even meet that criteria.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,762
    Talking of moronic politicians there was some no mark called Fish on R5 whilst I was driving home tonight. I can only hope he has someone to make sure he is properly dressed in the morning. His understanding of the things he was so enraged about was pitiful and his alternatives completely incoherent.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Racing certainty that Corbyn will win the next election though after all this - a deal that is worse than staying in the EU and for which domestic policy has been entirely ignored; a bunch of clowns inside her party who couldn’t organise anything at all in a brewery as the only opposition, an alienated DUP who have been hung out to dry and £ 39 bn shelled out with future trade still to be negotiated.

    Makes Chamberlain and Eden look quite competent.

    That it isn't - contrary to your claim - a racing certainty or even especially likely that he'll win is the most damning indictment imaginable of his awful leadership and weird policy offerings.
    Who is going to vote Tory after this shambles. The polls might currently say its level pegging but May lost a 20% lead to Corbyn in the last election campaign. This isn’t going to make life easier for her or the Tories.
    Everyone who doesn't want to put a man who is an admirer of divers mass murderers into power.

    He is a hospital pass for the ERG. They're stupid, he's malevolent and stupid.

    I have no argument with you describing him as malevolent but he is far more electorally appealing than any Tory, especially May, as he showed in the last election. All the Tories will have to offer at the next election is a shambolic Brexit or non Brexit and the diatribe that the alternative to them is Corbyn. Didn’t work last time and I don’t see it working next time - especially after all this.
    He was not more electorally appealing than the Tories last time. That's why he lost.
    But he achieved a very substantial swing in his direction in the course of the campaign.
    Again, he rallied a lot of votes behind him. He persuaded very few switchers.

    The much larger risk for the Tories is that their supporters are less motivated to vote. As I have said previously, I think differential turnout will be the decisive factor next time.
    He achieved a much higher vote share than Gordon Brown in 2010 , than Tony Blair in 2005 , and than Harold Wilson at both 1974 elections.
    And he still lost.
    Which is true. But he got 40%. That has won before. Think we are in uncharted waters speculating on the next GE.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    dixiedean said:

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Racing certainty that Corbyn will win the next election though after all this - a deal that is worse than staying in the EU and for which domestic policy has been entirely ignored; a bunch of clowns inside her party who couldn’t organise anything at all in a brewery as the only opposition, an alienated DUP who have been hung out to dry and £ 39 bn shelled out with future trade still to be negotiated.

    Makes Chamberlain and Eden look quite competent.

    That it isn't - contrary to your claim - a racing certainty or even especially likely that he'll win is the most damning indictment imaginable of his awful leadership and weird policy offerings.
    Who is going to vote Tory after this shambles. The polls might currently say its level pegging but May lost a 20% lead to Corbyn in the last election campaign. This isn’t going to make life easier for her or the Tories.
    Everyone who doesn't want to put a man who is an admirer of divers mass murderers into power.

    He is a hospital pass for the ERG. They're stupid, he's malevolent and stupid.

    I have no argument with you describing him as malevolent but he is far more electorally appealing than any Tory, especially May, as he showed in the last election. All the Tories will have to offer at the next election is a shambolic Brexit or non Brexit and the diatribe that the alternative to them is Corbyn. Didn’t work last time and I don’t see it working next time - especially after all this.
    He was not more electorally appealing than the Tories last time. That's why he lost.
    But he achieved a very substantial swing in his direction in the course of the campaign.
    Again, he rallied a lot of votes behind him. He persuaded very few switchers.

    The much larger risk for the Tories is that their supporters are less motivated to vote. As I have said previously, I think differential turnout will be the decisive factor next time.
    He achieved a much higher vote share than Gordon Brown in 2010 , than Tony Blair in 2005 , and than Harold Wilson at both 1974 elections.
    And he still lost.
    Which is true. But he got 40%. That has won before. Think we are in uncharted waters speculating on the next GE.
    Well it is probably only a few months away now so we had best start speculating!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,741
    edited November 2018
    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Racing certainty that Corbyn will win the next election though after all this - a deal that is worse than staying in the EU and for which domestic policy has been entirely ignored; a bunch of clowns inside her party who couldn’t organise anything at all in a brewery as the only opposition, an alienated DUP who have been hung out to dry and £ 39 bn shelled out with future trade still to be negotiated.

    Makes Chamberlain and Eden look quite competent.

    That it isn't - contrary to your claim - a racing certainty or even especially likely that he'll win is the most damning indictment imaginable of his awful leadership and weird policy offerings.
    Who is going to vote Tory after this shambles. The polls might currently say its level pegging but May lost a 20% lead to Corbyn in the last election campaign. This isn’t going to make life easier for her or the Tories.
    Everyone who doesn't want to put a man who is an admirer of divers mass murderers into power.

    He is a hospital pass for the ERG. They're stupid, he's malevolent and stupid.

    I have no argument with you describing him as malevolent but he is far more electorally appealing than any Tory, especially May, as he showed in the last election. All the Tories will have to offer at the next election is a shambolic Brexit or non Brexit and the diatribe that the alternative to them is Corbyn. Didn’t work last time and I don’t see it working next time - especially after all this.
    He was not more electorally appealing than the Tories last time. That's why he lost.
    But he achieved a very substantial swing in his direction in the course of the campaign.
    Again, he rallied a lot of votes behind him. He persuaded very few switchers.

    The much larger risk for the Tories is that their supporters are less motivated to vote. As I have said previously, I think differential turnout will be the decisive factor next time.
    He achieved a much higher vote share than Gordon Brown in 2010 , than Tony Blair in 2005 , and than Harold Wilson at both 1974 elections.
    And he still lost.
    Indeed - but it was an election which nobody won.
    It is just as well for the Conservative party that Stanley Baldwin didn't listen to people who gave him advice like this in 1929.
This discussion has been closed.