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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It’s now down to an evens chance in the betting that the UK wi

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited November 30 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It’s now down to an evens chance in the betting that the UK will leave the EU on March 29th

Chart Betdata.io

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Comments

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 26,087
    First
  • In the event of no deal it is just a matter of when not if we rejoin the EU.

    We must all give thanks to the ERG.

    They’ve run the greatest sleeper operation in history.

    We must thank them, in fact we must thank all Leavers.

    I salute your courage, your strength, your indefatigability, and I want you to know that we are with you, hatta al-nasr, hatta al-nasr, hatta al-Quds.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 46,598
    Did mention a few times, months ago, that a second referendum at 6.5 (then 6) might be worth a look. Currently it's 2.37, with 1.53 on the opposite side (Ladbrokes).

    Anyway, I must be off. Play nicely, everyone.
  • We’re leaving next March, that’s the law/default.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 18,806
    What is she expecting to change between votes ? MOAR FEAR ?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 15,721
    edited November 30
    I'm sure this was discussed at length this morning but it's great to see Dr Fox has had a Raabascene conversion and has noticed that the EU accounts for 44% of our exports.

    I wonder how much we exported to them when he was appointed International Trade Secretary.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 23,582
    I think May will get her deal through on the first attempt, and we won't leave the EU on March 29th.
  • TOPPING said:

    I'm sure this was discussed at length this morning but it's great to see Dr Fox has had a Raabascene conversion and has noticed that the EU accounts for 44% of our exports.

    I wonder how much we exported to them when he was appointed International Trade Secretary.

    Leave Liam Fox alone, he’s peered into the abyss that is No Deal and doing his best to stop it.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 7,709
    The point is, Labour are the ones that can deliver the votes. Theresa May needs to make it in their interest to do so.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 3,243
    Disgraced national security risk Liam Fox knows this is the last government job he will ever have, and has no dignity left.

    He has nothing to lose from humiliating himself for May to keep his job.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 36,855

    kle4 said:

    Graph showing David Cameron's amazing timing:
    image

    I think that was part of his rush. He was worried that would be sustained and ruin the chance of remain. Wrong call.
    To be fair, I can’t blame him for that.

    It’s easy to look clever (or silly) in hindsight but there was little reason to think anything would be gained by delaying in 2016.
    True enough. But I think that rush did contribute to scuppering him.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 18,806

    I think May will get her deal through on the first attempt, and we won't leave the EU on March 29th.

    Mass Labour defections ?
  • TGOHF said:

    What is she expecting to change between votes ? MOAR FEAR ?
    Reality
  • Off Topic - if you have a spare 20 minutes take a look at the latest insights from Rachel Maddow on the Cohen/Russia revelations.

    https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/watch/cohen-plea-shocker-exposes-trump-camp-lies-about-russia-dealings-1384409667616

    I know I keep banging on about this, but there isn't 1 UK news show that would provide nearly this level of information and analysis on a complicated topic like this. Instead we get Question Time....
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 3,243

    TOPPING said:

    I'm sure this was discussed at length this morning but it's great to see Dr Fox has had a Raabascene conversion and has noticed that the EU accounts for 44% of our exports.

    I wonder how much we exported to them when he was appointed International Trade Secretary.

    Leave Liam Fox alone, he’s peered into the abyss that is No Deal and doing his best to stop it.
    He's peered into the abyss that is spending the rest of his life remembering his own political achievements and cringing so hard his balls rise up into his throat.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 31,846

    I think May will get her deal through on the first attempt, and we won't leave the EU on March 29th.

    Won’t?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 18,806

    TGOHF said:

    What is she expecting to change between votes ? MOAR FEAR ?
    Reality
    What real events will happen between the votes ?

    Plagues ? Pestilence ?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 3,243

    I think May will get her deal through on the first attempt, and we won't leave the EU on March 29th.

    Sequencing?

    - May wins MV by skin of her teeth and a few helpful Labour abstentions
    - DUP withdraw the C&S deal
    - Labour VONC
    - ERG support Labour VONC in a fit of truly glorious self-destructive malice
    - General Elex 31st Jan
    - EUCO reluctantly agrees a three month extension to A50

  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    I think May will get her deal through on the first attempt, and we won't leave the EU on March 29th.

    Won’t?
    May is a political mastermind.It's all part of her masterplan.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 36,855
    Evens seems right. Brexit is hanging by a thread. Some are gleeful about that, others would be furious but don't recognise they might be the ones to snip that thread.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 18,806

    I think May will get her deal through on the first attempt, and we won't leave the EU on March 29th.

    Sequencing?

    - May wins MV by skin of her teeth and a few helpful Labour abstentions
    - DUP withdraw the C&S deal
    - Labour VONC
    - ERG support Labour VONC in a fit of truly glorious self-destructive malice
    - General Elex 31st Jan
    - EUCO reluctantly agrees a three month extension to A50

    - May wins MV by skin of her teeth and a few helpful Labour abstentions L MAYBE
    - DUP withdraw the C&S deal : MAYBE
    - Labour VONC : MAYBE
    - ERG support Labour VONC in a fit of truly glorious self-destructive malice : ZERO CHANCE

    - General Elex 31st Jan : SEE ABOVE
    - EUCO reluctantly agrees a three month extension to A50 : SEE ABOVE
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 36,855
    FF43 said:

    The point is, Labour are the ones that can deliver the votes. Theresa May needs to make it in their interest to do so.

    Not sure how she can. If fewer Tories were against she could work on peeling off a few labour figures but it's so many she needs.
  • TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    What is she expecting to change between votes ? MOAR FEAR ?
    Reality
    What real events will happen between the votes ?

    Plagues ? Pestilence ?
    Of course not. But you have brexit in your grasp. Reject it and remain will become favourite

    It is upto you

    I am lucky as I back TM deal but if not remain
  • TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    What is she expecting to change between votes ? MOAR FEAR ?
    Reality
    What real events will happen between the votes ?

    Plagues ? Pestilence ?
    Of course not. But you have brexit in your grasp. Reject it and remain will become favourite

    It is upto you

    I am lucky as I back TM deal but if not remain
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325

    Disgraced national security risk Liam Fox knows this is the last government job he will ever have, and has no dignity left.

    He has nothing to lose from humiliating himself for May to keep his job.

    You seem panicked.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 36,855
    See, I knew there was no way she didn't know it wont pass. ('Still hopes' is code, obviously).
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 48,635
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    What is she expecting to change between votes ? MOAR FEAR ?
    Reality
    What real events will happen between the votes ?

    Plagues ? Pestilence ?
    Christmas :)
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 20,414
    Punters make it a 25% chance that she’ll be out this year which sort of assumes that there’ll be a CON MP confidence this side of Christmas.

    It assumes that:

    - There will be a Tory MP no-confidence vote, before Christmas, and
    - That she will lose it, and
    - That she will stand down as PM immediately or within a few days of losing it, rather than remaining as PM until a successor is chosen.

    There's no way that's a 25% chance.

    On the 'meaningful vote', this is a curious game of three-way chicken. For it to fail, those who above all want to avoid the disaster of a crash-out, and/or would prefer Remain, have to ally themselves with those who prefer the disaster of a crash-out, and who have been working for decades for us to Leave. At the moment a lot of MPs say they subscribe to that alliance, but it's a logical nonsense unless both sides are simply miscalculating badly. Maybe they are.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 3,243
    TGOHF said:


    - ERG support Labour VONC in a fit of truly glorious self-destructive malice : ZERO CHANCE

    Did you just assume that the ERG will behave *rationally* and *in their own enlightened self interests*?


  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 23,582

    I think May will get her deal through on the first attempt, and we won't leave the EU on March 29th.

    Won’t?
    Yes. The way she gets it through is backing a second referendum before the meaningful vote.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 36,855

    TOPPING said:

    I'm sure this was discussed at length this morning but it's great to see Dr Fox has had a Raabascene conversion and has noticed that the EU accounts for 44% of our exports.

    I wonder how much we exported to them when he was appointed International Trade Secretary.

    Leave Liam Fox alone, he’s peered into the abyss that is No Deal and doing his best to stop it.
    More joy in heaven over a repentant sinner and all that.
  • I think May will get her deal through on the first attempt, and we won't leave the EU on March 29th.

    Won’t?
    Yes. The way she gets it through is backing a second referendum before the meaningful vote.
    You are so funny and determined
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 31,846
    John_M said:

    I think May will get her deal through on the first attempt, and we won't leave the EU on March 29th.

    Won’t?
    May is a political mastermind.It's all part of her masterplan.
    Oh good! I’d keep quiet about her plans to join the Euro and Schengen if I were you....
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 18,806

    I think May will get her deal through on the first attempt, and we won't leave the EU on March 29th.

    Won’t?
    Yes. The way she gets it through is backing a second referendum before the meaningful vote.
    How is she going to push through a second referendum from the backbenches ?

    As thats where she is headed if she pulls that stunt.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 48,635

    Punters make it a 25% chance that she’ll be out this year which sort of assumes that there’ll be a CON MP confidence this side of Christmas.

    It assumes that:

    - There will be a Tory MP no-confidence vote, before Christmas, and
    - That she will lose it, and
    - That she will stand down as PM immediately or within a few days of losing it, rather than remaining as PM until a successor is chosen.

    There's no way that's a 25% chance.

    On the 'meaningful vote', this is a curious game of three-way chicken. For it to fail, those who above all want to avoid the disaster of a crash-out, and/or would prefer Remain, have to ally themselves with those who prefer the disaster of a crash-out, and who have been working for decades for us to Leave. At the moment a lot of MPs say they subscribe to that alliance, but it's a logical nonsense unless both sides are simply miscalculating badly. Maybe they are.

    The problem is it isn't the MPs that will be the victims of the chicken game. It is the public.

    I might write to my MP and ask him to support the deal. He's Labour but potentially amenable I suspect (John Mann)
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 1,317
    From the thread: "But a huge operation is taking place to try to win Tory MP dissidents round to the PM’s assertion that this is just about the best deal that’s possible. Day by day, it seems, another senior Tory cabinet minister makes their views known that they are backing her."

    I read the trend very differently. What is happening day by day is that the numbers of Tory MPs publically pledged to vote against May's deal is steadily growing. It reached 90 or so a couple of days back and today it's reached the 100 mark. Today's i also reports that a number of PPSs are set to join the revolt, so the payroll vote is looking flaky too.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 15,721

    I think May will get her deal through on the first attempt, and we won't leave the EU on March 29th.

    Won’t?
    Yes. The way she gets it through is backing a second referendum before the meaningful vote.
    You are so funny and determined
    For some reason all the very keen EU-ers manage to state their case consistently and politely whereas those on the other side can't contain the froth and get themselves banned.

    Telling character trait difference between the two sides.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 48,635

    Punters make it a 25% chance that she’ll be out this year which sort of assumes that there’ll be a CON MP confidence this side of Christmas.

    It assumes that:

    - There will be a Tory MP no-confidence vote, before Christmas, and
    - That she will lose it, and
    - That she will stand down as PM immediately or within a few days of losing it, rather than remaining as PM until a successor is chosen.

    There's no way that's a 25% chance.

    On the 'meaningful vote', this is a curious game of three-way chicken. For it to fail, those who above all want to avoid the disaster of a crash-out, and/or would prefer Remain, have to ally themselves with those who prefer the disaster of a crash-out, and who have been working for decades for us to Leave. At the moment a lot of MPs say they subscribe to that alliance, but it's a logical nonsense unless both sides are simply miscalculating badly. Maybe they are.

    In the immediate aftermath of the vote the ERG has her exactly where they want her. There's a reason the 48 letters won't go in.
  • Punters make it a 25% chance that she’ll be out this year which sort of assumes that there’ll be a CON MP confidence this side of Christmas.

    It assumes that:

    - There will be a Tory MP no-confidence vote, before Christmas, and
    - That she will lose it, and
    - That she will stand down as PM immediately or within a few days of losing it, rather than remaining as PM until a successor is chosen.

    There's no way that's a 25% chance.

    On the 'meaningful vote', this is a curious game of three-way chicken. For it to fail, those who above all want to avoid the disaster of a crash-out, and/or would prefer Remain, have to ally themselves with those who prefer the disaster of a crash-out, and who have been working for decades for us to Leave. At the moment a lot of MPs say they subscribe to that alliance, but it's a logical nonsense unless both sides are simply miscalculating badly. Maybe they are.

    If she loses by 200 votes she may decide to go of her own accord immediately. More likely IMO than your scenario.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 5,750

    We’re leaving next March, that’s the law/default.

    Laws are made to be broken!

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 20,414
    edited November 30
    Pulpstar said:

    The problem is it isn't the MPs that will be the victims of the chicken game. It is the public.

    I might write to my MP and ask him to support the deal. He's Labour but potentially amenable I suspect (John Mann)

    My wife & I wrote to our MP a couple of weeks ago (she's a whip, so not going to vote against unless she resigns, but we felt it important to make the point.) Copy to constituency chair. This is what we said:

    Dear Nus,

    We are extremely concerned at the destructive and irresponsible response from some Conservatives to the Prime Minister’s draft Withdrawal Agreement from the EU. The PM has done a remarkable job, in incredibly difficult circumstances, in agreeing an outline deal with the EU which fully implements Brexit and respects the result of the referendum. As you know, under the deal we would leave the CAP and CFP, free movement of EU workers would end, and after the end of the transition period we will no longer subject to ECJ interference in our domestic affairs. At the same time, the outline future relationship would give us very good access to the EU markets, without the burdensome obligations. It is impressive that she has managed to get the EU to agree to this, and very clear that they won’t make further concessions.

    What is less impressive is the response of the ERG and some other people in the party who seem hell-bent on destructive tactics which will either lead to Brexit being cancelled in chaos after another divisive referendum, or even worse to a cliff-edge crash-out which would be massively damaging to the economy and to ordinary people, and probably leave the Conservative Party out of power for a generation – and deservedly so. Even worse, it won’t be a moderate centre-left party which will take power in that scenario, but Jeremy Corbyn’s extreme hard-left party.

    We know that you will be getting lots of messages from people saying that Mrs May’s deal is ‘betrayal’ or ‘not really Brexit’, but this is utter nonsense, and in many cases actively dishonest, in that it confuses the transition period with the end point.

    We hope therefore that you will join other sensible, pragmatic Conservative MPs in supporting the PM in trying to get this deal agreed.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 48,635

    Pulpstar said:

    The problem is it isn't the MPs that will be the victims of the chicken game. It is the public.

    I might write to my MP and ask him to support the deal. He's Labour but potentially amenable I suspect (John Mann)

    My wife & I wrote to our MP a couple of weeks ago (she's a whip, so not going to vote against unless she resigns, but we felt it important to make the point.) Copy to constituency chair. This is what we said:

    Dear Nus,

    We are extremely concerned at the destructive and irresponsible response from some Conservatives to the Prime Minister’s draft Withdrawal Agreement from the EU. The PM has done a remarkable job, in incredibly difficult circumstances, in agreeing an outline deal with the EU which fully implements Brexit and respects the result of the referendum. As you know, under the deal we would leave the CAP and CFP, free movement of EU workers would end, and after the end of the transition period we will no longer subject to ECJ interference in our domestic affairs. At the same time, the outline future relationship would give us very good access to the EU markets, without the burdensome obligations. It is impressive that she has managed to get the EU to agree to this, and very clear that they won’t make further concessions.

    What is less impressive is the response of the ERG and some other people in the party who seem hell-bent on destructive tactics which will either lead to Brexit being cancelled in chaos after another divisive referendum, or even worse to a cliff-edge crash-out which would be massively damaging to the economy and to ordinary people, and probably leave the Conservative Party out of power for a generation – and deservedly so. Even worse, it won’t be a moderate centre-left party which will take power in that scenario, but Jeremy Corbyn’s extreme hard-left party.

    We know that you will be getting lots of messages from people saying that Mrs May’s deal is ‘betrayal’ or ‘not really Brexit’, but this is utter nonsense, and in many cases actively dishonest, in that it confuses the transition period with the end point.

    We hope therefore that you will join other sensible, pragmatic Conservative MPs in supporting the PM in trying to get this deal agreed.
    Heh, I'll have to amend it a touch for Mann - not sure "leave the Conservative Party out of power for a generation" being left in would make him back the deal lol. Mind if I use as a template though ?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 15,721
    edited November 30

    Pulpstar said:

    The problem is it isn't the MPs that will be the victims of the chicken game. It is the public.

    I might write to my MP and ask him to support the deal. He's Labour but potentially amenable I suspect (John Mann)

    My wife & I wrote to our MP a couple of weeks ago (she's a whip, so not going to vote against unless she resigns, but we felt it important to make the point. Copy to constituency chair. This is what we said:

    Dear Nus,

    We are extremely concerned at the destructive and irresponsible response from some Conservatives to the Prime Minister’s draft Withdrawal Agreement from the EU. The PM has done a remarkable job, in incredibly difficult circumstances, in agreeing an outline deal with the EU which fully implements Brexit and respects the result of the referendum. As you know, under the deal we would leave the CAP and CFP, free movement of EU workers would end, and after the end of the transition period we will no longer subject to ECJ interference in our domestic affairs. At the same time, the outline future relationship would give us very good access to the EU markets, without the burdensome obligations. It is impressive that she has managed to get the EU to agree to this, and very clear that they won’t make further concessions.

    What is less impressive is the response of the ERG and some other people in the party who seem hell-bent on destructive tactics which will either lead to Brexit being cancelled in chaos after another divisive referendum, or even worse to a cliff-edge crash-out which would be massively damaging to the economy and to ordinary people, and probably leave the Conservative Party out of power for a generation – and deservedly so. Even worse, it won’t be a moderate centre-left party which will take power in that scenario, but Jeremy Corbyn’s extreme hard-left party.

    We know that you will be getting lots of messages from people saying that Mrs May’s deal is ‘betrayal’ or ‘not really Brexit’, but this is utter nonsense, and in many cases actively dishonest, in that it confuses the transition period with the end point.

    We hope therefore that you will join other sensible, pragmatic Conservative MPs in supporting the PM in trying to get this deal agreed.
    Very nice. Had dinner with a Cons MP (voted Remain) last night who showed me some of their emails. Typical: You ******** traitor. Make sure you ******* vote against the **** ****** deal you Remoaner c***.

    As I said something about the mindset of Leave vs Remain supporters.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 20,414

    Punters make it a 25% chance that she’ll be out this year which sort of assumes that there’ll be a CON MP confidence this side of Christmas.

    It assumes that:

    - There will be a Tory MP no-confidence vote, before Christmas, and
    - That she will lose it, and
    - That she will stand down as PM immediately or within a few days of losing it, rather than remaining as PM until a successor is chosen.

    There's no way that's a 25% chance.

    On the 'meaningful vote', this is a curious game of three-way chicken. For it to fail, those who above all want to avoid the disaster of a crash-out, and/or would prefer Remain, have to ally themselves with those who prefer the disaster of a crash-out, and who have been working for decades for us to Leave. At the moment a lot of MPs say they subscribe to that alliance, but it's a logical nonsense unless both sides are simply miscalculating badly. Maybe they are.

    If she loses by 200 votes she may decide to go of her own accord immediately. More likely IMO than your scenario.
    Possibly so, but I very much doubt that she'd actually go immediately.
  • rawzerrawzer Posts: 90
    edited November 30

    TGOHF said:


    - ERG support Labour VONC in a fit of truly glorious self-destructive malice : ZERO CHANCE

    Did you just assume that the ERG will behave *rationally* and *in their own enlightened self interests*?


    ERG = Adullamites
    May = Gladstone
    Corbyn = Disraeli
    WA = Reform Act
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 2,697
    I am just wondering, if I were a Tory MP unhappy with the deal, I can't see any upside to announcing that I am not going to vote for it in advance in public. I'd wait until the day itself. After all, you never know what is going to happen. So why get yourself on the naughty list?

    Or am I missing something?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 1,460
    OT, but there are now outright allegations of absentee (postal) vote rigging in the North Carolina 9th District (NC-09) House election. And not just for the general election, but from the incumbent Republican who lost the GOP primary earlier in the year.

    https://www.wftv.com/news/politics/absentee-ballot-fraud-allegations-roil-north-carolina-us-house-race/880448965
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 20,414
    edited November 30
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The problem is it isn't the MPs that will be the victims of the chicken game. It is the public.

    I might write to my MP and ask him to support the deal. He's Labour but potentially amenable I suspect (John Mann)

    My wife & I wrote to our MP a couple of weeks ago (she's a whip, so not going to vote against unless she resigns, but we felt it important to make the point.) Copy to constituency chair. This is what we said:

    Dear Nus,

    We are extremely concerned at the destructive and irresponsible response from some Conservatives to the Prime Minister’s draft Withdrawal Agreement from the EU. The PM has done a remarkable job, in incredibly difficult circumstances, in agreeing an outline deal with the EU which fully implements Brexit and respects the result of the referendum. As you know, under the deal we would leave the CAP and CFP, free movement of EU workers would end, and after the end of the transition period we will no longer subject to ECJ interference in our domestic affairs. At the same time, the outline future relationship would give us very good access to the EU markets, without the burdensome obligations. It is impressive that she has managed to get the EU to agree to this, and very clear that they won’t make further concessions.

    What is less impressive is the response of the ERG and some other people in the party who seem hell-bent on destructive tactics which will either lead to Brexit being cancelled in chaos after another divisive referendum, or even worse to a cliff-edge crash-out which would be massively damaging to the economy and to ordinary people, and probably leave the Conservative Party out of power for a generation – and deservedly so. Even worse, it won’t be a moderate centre-left party which will take power in that scenario, but Jeremy Corbyn’s extreme hard-left party.

    We know that you will be getting lots of messages from people saying that Mrs May’s deal is ‘betrayal’ or ‘not really Brexit’, but this is utter nonsense, and in many cases actively dishonest, in that it confuses the transition period with the end point.

    We hope therefore that you will join other sensible, pragmatic Conservative MPs in supporting the PM in trying to get this deal agreed.
    Heh, I'll have to amend it a touch for Mann - not sure "leave the Conservative Party out of power for a generation" being left in would make him back the deal lol. Mind if I use as a template though ?
    Although in his case the Corbyn point might be effective! Feel free to use anything useful in it.
  • Pulpstar said:

    The problem is it isn't the MPs that will be the victims of the chicken game. It is the public.

    I might write to my MP and ask him to support the deal. He's Labour but potentially amenable I suspect (John Mann)

    My wife & I wrote to our MP a couple of weeks ago (she's a whip, so not going to vote against unless she resigns, but we felt it important to make the point.) Copy to constituency chair. This is what we said:

    Dear Nus,

    We are extremely concerned at the destructive and irresponsible response from some Conservatives to the Prime Minister’s draft Withdrawal Agreement from the EU. The PM has done a remarkable job, in incredibly difficult circumstances, in agreeing an outline deal with the EU which fully implements Brexit and respects the result of the referendum. As you know, under the deal we would leave the CAP and CFP, free movement of EU workers would end, and after the end of the transition period we will no longer subject to ECJ interference in our domestic affairs. At the same time, the outline future relationship would give us very good access to the EU markets, without the burdensome obligations. It is impressive that she has managed to get the EU to agree to this, and very clear that they won’t make further concessions.

    What is less impressive is the response of the ERG and some other people in the party who seem hell-bent on destructive tactics which will either lead to Brexit being cancelled in chaos after another divisive referendum, or even worse to a cliff-edge crash-out which would be massively damaging to the economy and to ordinary people, and probably leave the Conservative Party out of power for a generation – and deservedly so. Even worse, it won’t be a moderate centre-left party which will take power in that scenario, but Jeremy Corbyn’s extreme hard-left party.

    We know that you will be getting lots of messages from people saying that Mrs May’s deal is ‘betrayal’ or ‘not really Brexit’, but this is utter nonsense, and in many cases actively dishonest, in that it confuses the transition period with the end point.

    We hope therefore that you will join other sensible, pragmatic Conservative MPs in supporting the PM in trying to get this deal agreed.
    Do you think I should say the same to my local MP in Uxbridge

    I have him down as a "maybe"
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 20,414

    Pulpstar said:

    The problem is it isn't the MPs that will be the victims of the chicken game. It is the public.

    I might write to my MP and ask him to support the deal. He's Labour but potentially amenable I suspect (John Mann)

    My wife & I wrote to our MP a couple of weeks ago (she's a whip, so not going to vote against unless she resigns, but we felt it important to make the point.) Copy to constituency chair. This is what we said:

    Dear Nus,

    We are extremely concerned at the destructive and irresponsible response from some Conservatives to the Prime Minister’s draft Withdrawal Agreement from the EU. The PM has done a remarkable job, in incredibly difficult circumstances, in agreeing an outline deal with the EU which fully implements Brexit and respects the result of the referendum. As you know, under the deal we would leave the CAP and CFP, free movement of EU workers would end, and after the end of the transition period we will no longer subject to ECJ interference in our domestic affairs. At the same time, the outline future relationship would give us very good access to the EU markets, without the burdensome obligations. It is impressive that she has managed to get the EU to agree to this, and very clear that they won’t make further concessions.

    What is less impressive is the response of the ERG and some other people in the party who seem hell-bent on destructive tactics which will either lead to Brexit being cancelled in chaos after another divisive referendum, or even worse to a cliff-edge crash-out which would be massively damaging to the economy and to ordinary people, and probably leave the Conservative Party out of power for a generation – and deservedly so. Even worse, it won’t be a moderate centre-left party which will take power in that scenario, but Jeremy Corbyn’s extreme hard-left party.

    We know that you will be getting lots of messages from people saying that Mrs May’s deal is ‘betrayal’ or ‘not really Brexit’, but this is utter nonsense, and in many cases actively dishonest, in that it confuses the transition period with the end point.

    We hope therefore that you will join other sensible, pragmatic Conservative MPs in supporting the PM in trying to get this deal agreed.
    Do you think I should say the same to my local MP in Uxbridge

    I have him down as a "maybe"
    Actually yes you should, suitably modified!. It does need repeating that the deal does actually deliver what the Leave campaigns wanted.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    TOPPING said:

    I think May will get her deal through on the first attempt, and we won't leave the EU on March 29th.

    Won’t?
    Yes. The way she gets it through is backing a second referendum before the meaningful vote.
    You are so funny and determined
    For some reason all the very keen EU-ers manage to state their case consistently and politely whereas those on the other side can't contain the froth and get themselves banned.

    Telling character trait difference between the two sides.
    Blowing one's own trumpet Topping? How vulgar. Still, I shan't forget you in the event of no-deal Brexit. You shall be granted access to the class-B turnip store.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 36,855

    From the thread: "But a huge operation is taking place to try to win Tory MP dissidents round to the PM’s assertion that this is just about the best deal that’s possible. Day by day, it seems, another senior Tory cabinet minister makes their views known that they are backing her."

    I read the trend very differently. What is happening day by day is that the numbers of Tory MPs publically pledged to vote against May's deal is steadily growing. It reached 90 or so a couple of days back and today it's reached the 100 mark. Today's i also reports that a number of PPSs are set to join the revolt, so the payroll vote is looking flaky too.

    I agree. It is not news that cabinet ministers back this. If they don't they shouldnt be in the cabinet. Taking this long to announce it just makes it uncertain they all do, and encourages the drip drip of those publicly saying no.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 1,843

    I am just wondering, if I were a Tory MP unhappy with the deal, I can't see any upside to announcing that I am not going to vote for it in advance in public. I'd wait until the day itself. After all, you never know what is going to happen. So why get yourself on the naughty list?

    Or am I missing something?

    For some people the naughty list is the ones voting for it.

    If we accept the idea that May has limited time left it might be a smart play to do so politically. Isn't it a majority of Conservative backbenchers?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 15,721
    John_M said:

    TOPPING said:

    I think May will get her deal through on the first attempt, and we won't leave the EU on March 29th.

    Won’t?
    Yes. The way she gets it through is backing a second referendum before the meaningful vote.
    You are so funny and determined
    For some reason all the very keen EU-ers manage to state their case consistently and politely whereas those on the other side can't contain the froth and get themselves banned.

    Telling character trait difference between the two sides.
    Blowing one's own trumpet Topping? How vulgar. Still, I shan't forget you in the event of no-deal Brexit. You shall be granted access to the class-B turnip store.
    Blowing my trumpet? You should be so lucky.

    Just pointing out the difference in class between the two sides.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 3,243
    (FPT)

    Q1: Please rank the following outcomes in order of preference

    1. Leave the EU with no deal
    2. Leave the EU with the PM's deal
    3. Leave the EU with PM's deal, but on every street corner we place an animatronic Jacob Rees Mogg that repeats the words "vassalage" endlessly until the backstop ends. London to be renamed West Belgium.
    4. Leave the EU with a "Norway+" deal
    5. Extend Article 50, re-open negotiations. Close down parliament. Hide behind the curtains until the EU forgets we exist.
    6. Revoke article 50, remain in the EU on terms as similar as possible as what we have now except every family loses their free owl.
    7. Leave the EU, then immediately sign a new accession treaty, waiving all opt-outs and agreeing to join the Euro and Schengen area. Michel Barnier to appear on all UK banknotes.
    8. Have cake; do not eat
    9. Eat cake; do not have
    10. Neither have nor eat cake
    11. Type 2 diabetes.
    12. Invade France.

    Q2: How many years must it be before we can again have another once-in-a-lifetime vote?

    1. 0
    2. 1
    3. 1 and a bit
    4. 2
    5. 2-ish
    6. 3 is a generation, right?
    7. Okay five and that's my once-in-a-lifetime offer
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 36,855

    I am just wondering, if I were a Tory MP unhappy with the deal, I can't see any upside to announcing that I am not going to vote for it in advance in public. I'd wait until the day itself. After all, you never know what is going to happen. So why get yourself on the naughty list?

    Or am I missing something?

    Possibly they want to be open and transparent about it. Possibly it is to shore up their own resolve as it makes changing position under pressure harder as it requires public admission.

    My best guess it is sone if it is part of the push to prevent the vote altogether by showing how big a loss it will be, I position I think is pretty shameful as being clear what everyone thinks on the deal
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 20,414
    TOPPING said:

    Very nice. Had dinner with a Cons MP (voted Remain) last night who showed me some of their emails. Typical: You ******** traitor. Make sure you ******* vote against the **** ****** deal you Remoaner c***.

    As I said something about the mindset of Leave vs Remain supporters.

    I think Alastair Burt was right that the attacks on the deal from Leavers will tend to make former Remain MPs feel that they are no longer obliged to respect the referendum result.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 18,347
    edited November 30
    Macron under attack from his predecessor Francois Hollande. Surpisingly Hollande is encouraging fuel price protestors to up the ante and pursue the protests even harder.


    http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/le-scan/citations/2018/11/30/25002-20181130ARTFIG00058-depuis-l-argentine-la-violente-charge-de-macron-contre-hollande.php
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 36,855
    TOPPING said:

    I think May will get her deal through on the first attempt, and we won't leave the EU on March 29th.

    Won’t?
    Yes. The way she gets it through is backing a second referendum before the meaningful vote.
    You are so funny and determined
    For some reason all the very keen EU-ers manage to state their case consistently and politely whereas those on the other side can't contain the froth and get themselves banned.

    Telling character trait difference between the two sides.
    I must be imagining those gleeful posts from some about how stupid gammon racists will die out and that's why remain will definitely win this time.

    William, Though, has always kept his good humour without wavering in his intensity.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 36,855

    TOPPING said:

    Very nice. Had dinner with a Cons MP (voted Remain) last night who showed me some of their emails. Typical: You ******** traitor. Make sure you ******* vote against the **** ****** deal you Remoaner c***.

    As I said something about the mindset of Leave vs Remain supporters.

    I think Alastair Burt was right that the attacks on the deal from Leavers will tend to make former Remain MPs feel that they are no longer obliged to respect the referendum result.
    It certainly provides cover to any of them.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 3,243

    TOPPING said:

    Very nice. Had dinner with a Cons MP (voted Remain) last night who showed me some of their emails. Typical: You ******** traitor. Make sure you ******* vote against the **** ****** deal you Remoaner c***.

    As I said something about the mindset of Leave vs Remain supporters.

    I think Alastair Burt was right that the attacks on the deal from Leavers will tend to make former Remain MPs feel that they are no longer obliged to respect the referendum result.
    You know your problem, Richard? You're just too damned civil. But if there's one thing we all know about civil wars is that they are *rarely* civil. :)
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,675

    Macron under attack from his predecessor Francois Hollande. Surpisingly Hollande is encouraging fuel price protestors to up the ante and pursue the protests even harder.


    http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/le-scan/citations/2018/11/30/25002-20181130ARTFIG00058-depuis-l-argentine-la-violente-charge-de-macron-contre-hollande.php

    Macron might have been ousted by the time he gets home.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 15,721
    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    I think May will get her deal through on the first attempt, and we won't leave the EU on March 29th.

    Won’t?
    Yes. The way she gets it through is backing a second referendum before the meaningful vote.
    You are so funny and determined
    For some reason all the very keen EU-ers manage to state their case consistently and politely whereas those on the other side can't contain the froth and get themselves banned.

    Telling character trait difference between the two sides.
    I must be imagining those gleeful posts from some about how stupid gammon racists will die out and that's why remain will definitely win this time.

    William, Though, has always kept his good humour without wavering in his intensity.
    I welcome anyone with a coherent view, no matter how it is expressed, nor how colourfully. But I appreciate that Mike's site is superior to so many others which do let those standards slip and also that if we all get into the habit of insulting each other as a matter of course then the debate degenerates.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 18,347
    tlg86 said:

    Macron under attack from his predecessor Francois Hollande. Surpisingly Hollande is encouraging fuel price protestors to up the ante and pursue the protests even harder.


    http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/le-scan/citations/2018/11/30/25002-20181130ARTFIG00058-depuis-l-argentine-la-violente-charge-de-macron-contre-hollande.php

    Macron might have been ousted by the time he gets home.
    The Euro elections will be intresting next year, its not hard to see Macron beiing wiped out in a wave of discontent,
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 5,692
    FPT:

    I notice the Leavers seem to be terrified of having "Remain" on any second referendum - presumably in case it wins.

    I am a Remainer. I am quite prepared to go for No-Deal / Remain on a ballot. If No-Deal wins then so be it and we Brexit.

    What Leavers fail to grasp when they warn me about the risk of losing is that now we have a clear picture of what "No Deal" means. So, if the country decides that it still wants to Leave then even I will not argue against the result.

    Perhaps, but Remainers are also being dishonest about how they’d behave if it looked like Leave would win a 2nd vote (they’d demand the decision would be made by Parliament instead) and, if a further Leave vote was carried, they’d either challenge it or only stay quiet(ish) until they sensed they had another chance of winning via another political route.
    I cannot speak for all Remainers, only for myself and I stand by what I said above.

    To me, the difference between another referendum and the 2016 one is that this one is much clearer about outcomes. The other one offered the status quo and some nebulous, undefined, sunnily lit paradise.

    That gives a second referendum more authority.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 18,347
    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    I think May will get her deal through on the first attempt, and we won't leave the EU on March 29th.

    Won’t?
    Yes. The way she gets it through is backing a second referendum before the meaningful vote.
    You are so funny and determined
    For some reason all the very keen EU-ers manage to state their case consistently and politely whereas those on the other side can't contain the froth and get themselves banned.

    Telling character trait difference between the two sides.
    I must be imagining those gleeful posts from some about how stupid gammon racists will die out and that's why remain will definitely win this time.

    William, Though, has always kept his good humour without wavering in his intensity.
    I welcome anyone with a coherent view, no matter how it is expressed, nor how colourfully. But I appreciate that Mike's site is superior to so many others which do let those standards slip and also that if we all get into the habit of insulting each other as a matter of course then the debate degenerates.
    twat :-)
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 7,709
    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    The point is, Labour are the ones that can deliver the votes. Theresa May needs to make it in their interest to do so.

    Not sure how she can. If fewer Tories were against she could work on peeling off a few labour figures but it's so many she needs.
    Either Corbyn or May or more probably both will have to make a shift . But that's where the votes will come from. Ultimately the WA will have to pass. It's the manner of the passing that's TBD. May is doubling down on her context and no other.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 2,697
    And let's not forget just how much all this fascinating political spectacle is costing us.



  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 15,721

    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    I think May will get her deal through on the first attempt, and we won't leave the EU on March 29th.

    Won’t?
    Yes. The way she gets it through is backing a second referendum before the meaningful vote.
    You are so funny and determined
    For some reason all the very keen EU-ers manage to state their case consistently and politely whereas those on the other side can't contain the froth and get themselves banned.

    Telling character trait difference between the two sides.
    I must be imagining those gleeful posts from some about how stupid gammon racists will die out and that's why remain will definitely win this time.

    William, Though, has always kept his good humour without wavering in his intensity.
    I welcome anyone with a coherent view, no matter how it is expressed, nor how colourfully. But I appreciate that Mike's site is superior to so many others which do let those standards slip and also that if we all get into the habit of insulting each other as a matter of course then the debate degenerates.
    twat :-)
    LOL yes I set 'em up....!
  • TOPPING said:

    Very nice. Had dinner with a Cons MP (voted Remain) last night who showed me some of their emails. Typical: You ******** traitor. Make sure you ******* vote against the **** ****** deal you Remoaner c***.

    As I said something about the mindset of Leave vs Remain supporters.

    I think Alastair Burt was right that the attacks on the deal from Leavers will tend to make former Remain MPs feel that they are no longer obliged to respect the referendum result.
    I certainly think that if the vote is lost, Remainers will feel less obliged to compromise.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 20,414
    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Very nice. Had dinner with a Cons MP (voted Remain) last night who showed me some of their emails. Typical: You ******** traitor. Make sure you ******* vote against the **** ****** deal you Remoaner c***.

    As I said something about the mindset of Leave vs Remain supporters.

    I think Alastair Burt was right that the attacks on the deal from Leavers will tend to make former Remain MPs feel that they are no longer obliged to respect the referendum result.
    It certainly provides cover to any of them.
    It's more than cover - if Leavers have decided that they now don't like the Brexit they campaigned for and voted for, then why on earth should Remainer MPs who think Brexit is a mistake, but were deferring to the democratic decision, continue to defer to it?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 18,347

    FPT:

    I notice the Leavers seem to be terrified of having "Remain" on any second referendum - presumably in case it wins.

    I am a Remainer. I am quite prepared to go for No-Deal / Remain on a ballot. If No-Deal wins then so be it and we Brexit.

    What Leavers fail to grasp when they warn me about the risk of losing is that now we have a clear picture of what "No Deal" means. So, if the country decides that it still wants to Leave then even I will not argue against the result.

    Perhaps, but Remainers are also being dishonest about how they’d behave if it looked like Leave would win a 2nd vote (they’d demand the decision would be made by Parliament instead) and, if a further Leave vote was carried, they’d either challenge it or only stay quiet(ish) until they sensed they had another chance of winning via another political route.
    I cannot speak for all Remainers, only for myself and I stand by what I said above.

    To me, the difference between another referendum and the 2016 one is that this one is much clearer about outcomes. The other one offered the status quo and some nebulous, undefined, sunnily lit paradise.

    That gives a second referendum more authority.
    really ?

    can you outline the consequences of staying in over the next 10 years ?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 3,243
    edited November 30

    tlg86 said:

    Macron under attack from his predecessor Francois Hollande. Surpisingly Hollande is encouraging fuel price protestors to up the ante and pursue the protests even harder.


    http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/le-scan/citations/2018/11/30/25002-20181130ARTFIG00058-depuis-l-argentine-la-violente-charge-de-macron-contre-hollande.php

    Macron might have been ousted by the time he gets home.
    The Euro elections will be intresting next year, its not hard to see Macron beiing wiped out in a wave of discontent,
    It would be hard for Macron to be "wiped out" in the euro-elections given that Republique En Marche did not exist in 2014, and therefore elected no MEPs.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 18,806

    TOPPING said:

    Very nice. Had dinner with a Cons MP (voted Remain) last night who showed me some of their emails. Typical: You ******** traitor. Make sure you ******* vote against the **** ****** deal you Remoaner c***.

    As I said something about the mindset of Leave vs Remain supporters.

    I think Alastair Burt was right that the attacks on the deal from Leavers will tend to make former Remain MPs feel that they are no longer obliged to respect the referendum result.
    What utter rot. Rude tweets are no basis for voting on an important matter.
  • And let's not forget just how much all this fascinating political spectacle is costing us.



    It's certainly not €800bn - that's assets under management etc, not wealth.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 23,321

    (FPT)

    Q1: Please rank the following outcomes in order of preference

    1. Leave the EU with no deal
    2. Leave the EU with the PM's deal
    3. Leave the EU with PM's deal, but on every street corner we place an animatronic Jacob Rees Mogg that repeats the words "vassalage" endlessly until the backstop ends. London to be renamed West Belgium.
    4. Leave the EU with a "Norway+" deal
    5. Extend Article 50, re-open negotiations. Close down parliament. Hide behind the curtains until the EU forgets we exist.
    6. Revoke article 50, remain in the EU on terms as similar as possible as what we have now except every family loses their free owl.
    7. Leave the EU, then immediately sign a new accession treaty, waiving all opt-outs and agreeing to join the Euro and Schengen area. Michel Barnier to appear on all UK banknotes.
    8. Have cake; do not eat
    9. Eat cake; do not have
    10. Neither have nor eat cake
    11. Type 2 diabetes.
    12. Invade France.

    Q2: How many years must it be before we can again have another once-in-a-lifetime vote?

    1. 0
    2. 1
    3. 1 and a bit
    4. 2
    5. 2-ish
    6. 3 is a generation, right?
    7. Okay five and that's my once-in-a-lifetime offer

    Q1 it really has to be 12. The only thing that makes me hesitate is creating another land border with the EU. That seems to be a source of almost endless trouble.
  • mattmatt Posts: 2,252
    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    I think May will get her deal through on the first attempt, and we won't leave the EU on March 29th.

    Won’t?
    Yes. The way she gets it through is backing a second referendum before the meaningful vote.
    You are so funny and determined
    For some reason all the very keen EU-ers manage to state their case consistently and politely whereas those on the other side can't contain the froth and get themselves banned.

    Telling character trait difference between the two sides.
    I must be imagining those gleeful posts from some about how stupid gammon racists will die out and that's why remain will definitely win this time.

    William, Though, has always kept his good humour without wavering in his intensity.
    I welcome anyone with a coherent view, no matter how it is expressed, nor how colourfully. But I appreciate that Mike's site is superior to so many others which do let those standards slip and also that if we all get into the habit of insulting each other as a matter of course then the debate degenerates.
    I'm unconvinced that people repeatedly shouting the same things at each other with no intention of changing their mind or seeing any virtue in different opinions constitutes a debate
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 1,843

    FPT:

    I notice the Leavers seem to be terrified of having "Remain" on any second referendum - presumably in case it wins.

    I am a Remainer. I am quite prepared to go for No-Deal / Remain on a ballot. If No-Deal wins then so be it and we Brexit.

    What Leavers fail to grasp when they warn me about the risk of losing is that now we have a clear picture of what "No Deal" means. So, if the country decides that it still wants to Leave then even I will not argue against the result.

    Perhaps, but Remainers are also being dishonest about how they’d behave if it looked like Leave would win a 2nd vote (they’d demand the decision would be made by Parliament instead) and, if a further Leave vote was carried, they’d either challenge it or only stay quiet(ish) until they sensed they had another chance of winning via another political route.
    I cannot speak for all Remainers, only for myself and I stand by what I said above.

    To me, the difference between another referendum and the 2016 one is that this one is much clearer about outcomes. The other one offered the status quo and some nebulous, undefined, sunnily lit paradise.

    That gives a second referendum more authority.
    That would pretty much be my view. If voters enthusiastically want no deal they should have it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 23,321

    And let's not forget just how much all this fascinating political spectacle is costing us.



    It's certainly not €800bn - that's assets under management etc, not wealth.
    That would be the German economy that shrank by 0.2% in the last quarter compared with an increase of 0.6% here? That's the one having a construction boom?

    And when have you ever not see cranes on the skyline in London?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 18,806

    And let's not forget just how much all this fascinating political spectacle is costing us.



    Suprised Mr Cliffe can tweet these days from his prone position underneath Mrs Merkel.

    Makes Faisail Islam look like a neutral observer.
  • kle4 said:

    From the thread: "But a huge operation is taking place to try to win Tory MP dissidents round to the PM’s assertion that this is just about the best deal that’s possible. Day by day, it seems, another senior Tory cabinet minister makes their views known that they are backing her."

    I read the trend very differently. What is happening day by day is that the numbers of Tory MPs publically pledged to vote against May's deal is steadily growing. It reached 90 or so a couple of days back and today it's reached the 100 mark. Today's i also reports that a number of PPSs are set to join the revolt, so the payroll vote is looking flaky too.

    I agree. It is not news that cabinet ministers back this. If they don't they shouldnt be in the cabinet. Taking this long to announce it just makes it uncertain they all do, and encourages the drip drip of those publicly saying no.
    I have to say I have been a little surprised by the number and public volume of anti-deal MPs. I'd have thought more would have adopted a 'find out what my constituents and local businesses think' approach.

    I agree it makes it very difficult for them to row back, and I'd have thought more would have left some wiggle room - especially as it's still not clear to me what the likely alternative outcome is, and most of the options seem at least as sub-optimal as this.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 18,806
    DavidL said:

    And let's not forget just how much all this fascinating political spectacle is costing us.



    It's certainly not €800bn - that's assets under management etc, not wealth.
    That would be the German economy that shrank by 0.2% in the last quarter compared with an increase of 0.6% here? That's the one having a construction boom?

    And when have you ever not see cranes on the skyline in London?
    Cliffe is a shill and a continuity provisional Europhile
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 249
    The 2016 referendum result mandated neither a hard nor a soft Brexit. It was an instruction to the government to take the UK out of the EU on the best terms that could in practice be negotiated. This was the clear and obvious real world meaning of the referendum and every politician who subsequently voted for article 50 to be invoked bought in to it implicitly. No other interpretation makes sense. The mandated destination was for us to leave under the terms agreed on a best efforts basis between the UK government and the EU27. Hard Brexit, soft Brexit, 2nd referendum, Canada, Norway, etc etc, this is all just special pleading and essentially irrelevant.

    The government has duly negotiated the best exit deal that it could. Absent fatuous conspiracy theories, that is by definition a true statement, since if it could have done a better one it would have done so. This then is the logical end of the democratic process that was started by the referendum vote of the public and ratified by the article 50 vote of the politicians.

    The deal should therefore be passed by parliament. No ifs no buts, we should leave on the due date under this withdrawal agreement. And ‘Honourable Members’ need only live up to their moniker for this to happen, because the only MPs who can with integrity vote against the deal are the small minority who opposed the triggering of article 50.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 3,243
    edited November 30

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Very nice. Had dinner with a Cons MP (voted Remain) last night who showed me some of their emails. Typical: You ******** traitor. Make sure you ******* vote against the **** ****** deal you Remoaner c***.

    As I said something about the mindset of Leave vs Remain supporters.

    I think Alastair Burt was right that the attacks on the deal from Leavers will tend to make former Remain MPs feel that they are no longer obliged to respect the referendum result.
    It certainly provides cover to any of them.
    It's more than cover - if Leavers have decided that they now don't like the Brexit they campaigned for and voted for, then why on earth should Remainer MPs who think Brexit is a mistake, but were deferring to the democratic decision, continue to defer to it?
    What percentage of leavers do you actually think had a clear idea of what they were campaigning/voting for? The last two years have certainly not filled me with with much confidence in that regard.

    Perhaps it's unfair to hold leavers to the Brexit they campaigned for- they didn't know what they were doing, bless them. They were sold a false prospectus. Mostly by themselves, it has to be said. But still false.

    But no. I know no pity. People need to learn the hard way that their actions have consequences.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 1,317

    (FPT)

    Q1: Please rank the following outcomes in order of preference

    1. Leave the EU with no deal
    2. Leave the EU with the PM's deal
    3. Leave the EU with PM's deal, but on every street corner we place an animatronic Jacob Rees Mogg that repeats the words "vassalage" endlessly until the backstop ends. London to be renamed West Belgium.
    4. Leave the EU with a "Norway+" deal
    5. Extend Article 50, re-open negotiations. Close down parliament. Hide behind the curtains until the EU forgets we exist.
    6. Revoke article 50, remain in the EU on terms as similar as possible as what we have now except every family loses their free owl.
    7. Leave the EU, then immediately sign a new accession treaty, waiving all opt-outs and agreeing to join the Euro and Schengen area. Michel Barnier to appear on all UK banknotes.
    8. Have cake; do not eat
    9. Eat cake; do not have
    10. Neither have nor eat cake
    11. Type 2 diabetes.
    12. Invade France.

    Q2: How many years must it be before we can again have another once-in-a-lifetime vote?

    1. 0
    2. 1
    3. 1 and a bit
    4. 2
    5. 2-ish
    6. 3 is a generation, right?
    7. Okay five and that's my once-in-a-lifetime offer

    13. Encourage Norway to reassert the Vikings' historical territorial claims to much of the UK and extend those to the rest for good measure?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 7,709

    And let's not forget just how much all this fascinating political spectacle is costing us.



    It's certainly not €800bn - that's assets under management etc, not wealth.
    Equivalent to Lloyds or RBS moving their entire assets to Frankfurt. It's pretty significant. Presumably there's a similar chunk going to Paris and smaller amounts to Amsterdam.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 23,321

    FPT:

    I notice the Leavers seem to be terrified of having "Remain" on any second referendum - presumably in case it wins.

    I am a Remainer. I am quite prepared to go for No-Deal / Remain on a ballot. If No-Deal wins then so be it and we Brexit.

    What Leavers fail to grasp when they warn me about the risk of losing is that now we have a clear picture of what "No Deal" means. So, if the country decides that it still wants to Leave then even I will not argue against the result.

    Perhaps, but Remainers are also being dishonest about how they’d behave if it looked like Leave would win a 2nd vote (they’d demand the decision would be made by Parliament instead) and, if a further Leave vote was carried, they’d either challenge it or only stay quiet(ish) until they sensed they had another chance of winning via another political route.
    I cannot speak for all Remainers, only for myself and I stand by what I said above.

    To me, the difference between another referendum and the 2016 one is that this one is much clearer about outcomes. The other one offered the status quo and some nebulous, undefined, sunnily lit paradise.

    That gives a second referendum more authority.
    really ?

    can you outline the consequences of staying in over the next 10 years ?
    And even before that what does leave no deal mean? No deal at all or enough of a deal to keep the planes flying, mutual standards etc?

    And what is May or her successor going to agree in stage 2 of Brexit if the WA is in place?

    The idea that any of the 3 options are going to be any clearer than the straightforward question of leave or stay is just a bit silly.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 36,855
    TGOHF said:

    TOPPING said:

    Very nice. Had dinner with a Cons MP (voted Remain) last night who showed me some of their emails. Typical: You ******** traitor. Make sure you ******* vote against the **** ****** deal you Remoaner c***.

    As I said something about the mindset of Leave vs Remain supporters.

    I think Alastair Burt was right that the attacks on the deal from Leavers will tend to make former Remain MPs feel that they are no longer obliged to respect the referendum result.
    What utter rot. Rude tweets are no basis for voting on an important matter.
    I don't think rude tweets is the main issue, it's that if Brexiteers like Raab are saying remaining is better than the deal then why shouldn't a remainer agree with them?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 15,721
    kinabalu said:

    The 2016 referendum result mandated neither a hard nor a soft Brexit. It was an instruction to the government to take the UK out of the EU on the best terms that could in practice be negotiated. This was the clear and obvious real world meaning of the referendum and every politician who subsequently voted for article 50 to be invoked bought in to it implicitly. No other interpretation makes sense. The mandated destination was for us to leave under the terms agreed on a best efforts basis between the UK government and the EU27. Hard Brexit, soft Brexit, 2nd referendum, Canada, Norway, etc etc, this is all just special pleading and essentially irrelevant.

    The government has duly negotiated the best exit deal that it could. Absent fatuous conspiracy theories, that is by definition a true statement, since if it could have done a better one it would have done so. This then is the logical end of the democratic process that was started by the referendum vote of the public and ratified by the article 50 vote of the politicians.

    The deal should therefore be passed by parliament. No ifs no buts, we should leave on the due date under this withdrawal agreement. And ‘Honourable Members’ need only live up to their moniker for this to happen, because the only MPs who can with integrity vote against the deal are the small minority who opposed the triggering of article 50.

    Difficult to disagree with this.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 18,806

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Very nice. Had dinner with a Cons MP (voted Remain) last night who showed me some of their emails. Typical: You ******** traitor. Make sure you ******* vote against the **** ****** deal you Remoaner c***.

    As I said something about the mindset of Leave vs Remain supporters.

    I think Alastair Burt was right that the attacks on the deal from Leavers will tend to make former Remain MPs feel that they are no longer obliged to respect the referendum result.
    It certainly provides cover to any of them.
    It's more than cover - if Leavers have decided that they now don't like the Brexit they campaigned for and voted for, then why on earth should Remainer MPs who think Brexit is a mistake, but were deferring to the democratic decision, continue to defer to it?
    What percentage of leavers do you actually think had a clear idea of what they were campaigning/voting for? The last two years have certainly not filled me with with much confidence in that regard.

    Perhaps it's unfair to hold leavers to the Brexit they campaigned for- they didn't know what they were doing, bless them. They were sold a false prospectus. Mostly by themselves, it has to be said. But still false.

    But no. I know no pity. People need to learn the hard way that their actions have consequences.
    This ridiculous notion that voters have a responsibility for the result after the vote is bonkers.

    People voted and then reliquished control back to Mr Cameron who soiled himself and passed over to Mrs May. She is hence responsible for the current predicament - her poor skills at bringing her party along with her and the current mess is entirely on her shoulders.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    TGOHF said:

    And let's not forget just how much all this fascinating political spectacle is costing us.



    Suprised Mr Cliffe can tweet these days from his prone position underneath Mrs Merkel.

    Makes Faisail Islam look like a neutral observer.
    I went to London for the first time in 6 months on Tuesday. It is still full of cranes
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 36,855

    kle4 said:

    From the thread: "But a huge operation is taking place to try to win Tory MP dissidents round to the PM’s assertion that this is just about the best deal that’s possible. Day by day, it seems, another senior Tory cabinet minister makes their views known that they are backing her."

    I read the trend very differently. What is happening day by day is that the numbers of Tory MPs publically pledged to vote against May's deal is steadily growing. It reached 90 or so a couple of days back and today it's reached the 100 mark. Today's i also reports that a number of PPSs are set to join the revolt, so the payroll vote is looking flaky too.

    I agree. It is not news that cabinet ministers back this. If they don't they shouldnt be in the cabinet. Taking this long to announce it just makes it uncertain they all do, and encourages the drip drip of those publicly saying no.
    I have to say I have been a little surprised by the number and public volume of anti-deal MPs. I'd have thought more would have adopted a 'find out what my constituents and local businesses think' approach.

    I agree it makes it very difficult for them to row back, and I'd have thought more would have left some wiggle room - especially as it's still not clear to me what the likely alternative outcome is, and most of the options seem at least as sub-optimal as this.
    Yes, whether it's the right choice or not it is interesting and perhaps even admirable that quite so many are on record well in advanced of the vote.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    currystar said:

    TGOHF said:

    And let's not forget just how much all this fascinating political spectacle is costing us.



    Suprised Mr Cliffe can tweet these days from his prone position underneath Mrs Merkel.

    Makes Faisail Islam look like a neutral observer.
    I went to London for the first time in 6 months on Tuesday. It is still full of cranes
    London is being dismantled brick by brick and rebuilt in Frankfurt.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 3,243


    13. Encourage Norway to reassert the Vikings' historical territorial claims to much of the UK and extend those to the rest for good measure?

    I called for a referendum on a restoration of the Danelaw in the previous thread. I'm sure the people of Jorvik will be up for it.

    All we need now is a king.

    Who's the biggest Cnut in British politics?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,675
    kle4 said:

    TGOHF said:

    TOPPING said:

    Very nice. Had dinner with a Cons MP (voted Remain) last night who showed me some of their emails. Typical: You ******** traitor. Make sure you ******* vote against the **** ****** deal you Remoaner c***.

    As I said something about the mindset of Leave vs Remain supporters.

    I think Alastair Burt was right that the attacks on the deal from Leavers will tend to make former Remain MPs feel that they are no longer obliged to respect the referendum result.
    What utter rot. Rude tweets are no basis for voting on an important matter.
    I don't think rude tweets is the main issue, it's that if Brexiteers like Raab are saying remaining is better than the deal then why shouldn't a remainer agree with them?
    Portillo was very quick to point out that he doesn't like to say that - even though he thinks that it is true - because he doesn't want to imply that he wants to stay in.

    For me, what I'm concerned with about the WA is that we are signing something which we cannot get out of without someone else's permission. Now it might be that all the comments like "they don't like the backstop any more than we do" turn out to be true. But I'm just not convinced.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 31,846

    And let's not forget just how much all this fascinating political spectacle is costing us.



    I was in Frankfurt a couple of months ago.....no "forest" there - there's much more building going on in the City.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 36,855
    edited November 30
    matt said:

    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    I think May will get her deal through on the first attempt, and we won't leave the EU on March 29th.

    Won’t?
    Yes. The way she gets it through is backing a second referendum before the meaningful vote.
    You are so funny and determined
    For some reason all the very keen EU-ers manage to state their case consistently and politely whereas those on the other side can't contain the froth and get themselves banned.

    Telling character trait difference between the two sides.
    I must be imagining those gleeful posts from some about how stupid gammon racists will die out and that's why remain will definitely win this time.

    William, Though, has always kept his good humour without wavering in his intensity.
    I welcome anyone with a coherent view, no matter how it is expressed, nor how colourfully. But I appreciate that Mike's site is superior to so many others which do let those standards slip and also that if we all get into the habit of insulting each other as a matter of course then the debate degenerates.
    I'm unconvinced that people repeatedly shouting the same things at each other with no intention of changing their mind or seeing any virtue in different opinions constitutes a debate
    But that would make every parliamentary debate, political show debate and online debate not a debate!

    That might be true, but it's also sad, Though I'm happy to debate you on the point.

    But people do change their minds a bit. I used to be against a second referendum for instance.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 18,347
    DavidL said:

    FPT:

    I notice the Leavers seem to be terrified of having "Remain" on any second referendum - presumably in case it wins.

    I am a Remainer. I am quite prepared to go for No-Deal / Remain on a ballot. If No-Deal wins then so be it and we Brexit.

    What Leavers fail to grasp when they warn me about the risk of losing is that now we have a clear picture of what "No Deal" means. So, if the country decides that it still wants to Leave then even I will not argue against the result.

    Perhaps, but Remainers are also being dishonest about how they’d behave if it looked like Leave would win a 2nd vote (they’d demand the decision would be made by Parliament instead) and, if a further Leave vote was carried, they’d either challenge it or only stay quiet(ish) until they sensed they had another chance of winning via another political route.
    I cannot speak for all Remainers, only for myself and I stand by what I said above.

    To me, the difference between another referendum and the 2016 one is that this one is much clearer about outcomes. The other one offered the status quo and some nebulous, undefined, sunnily lit paradise.

    That gives a second referendum more authority.
    really ?

    can you outline the consequences of staying in over the next 10 years ?
    And even before that what does leave no deal mean? No deal at all or enough of a deal to keep the planes flying, mutual standards etc?

    And what is May or her successor going to agree in stage 2 of Brexit if the WA is in place?

    The idea that any of the 3 options are going to be any clearer than the straightforward question of leave or stay is just a bit silly.
    Im afraid its simply the reverse side of a rubbish campaign. Remain put all its efforts in to scaring the voters, It didnt set out a coherent picture of why we should stay in and what staying in may entail infuture.





  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 3,243
    currystar said:

    TGOHF said:

    And let's not forget just how much all this fascinating political spectacle is costing us.



    Suprised Mr Cliffe can tweet these days from his prone position underneath Mrs Merkel.

    Makes Faisail Islam look like a neutral observer.
    I went to London for the first time in 6 months on Tuesday. It is still full of cranes
    It's a big city. Cities are a never ending fight against entropy. The presence of cranes tells you the city is fighting, but doesn't say if it's winning or losing.
This discussion has been closed.