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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A message to Moggsy on Northern Ireland from an ex-British Arm

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  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    MaxPB said:

    G20 scrapes over the line with a sort of agreement, but the outlook for world trade isn't looking great:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/01/g20-leaders-donald-trump-rules-based-order-wto-reform

    Until China plays by the rules no one else should either. It doesn't get simpler than that.
    Quite.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238

    The French take no shit from their Government -- good for them.

    It was evident to everyone (except for a few PB.com pampered ones) that Jupiter was the President for the Rich.

    :+1:
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    MaxPB said:

    G20 scrapes over the line with a sort of agreement, but the outlook for world trade isn't looking great:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/01/g20-leaders-donald-trump-rules-based-order-wto-reform

    Until China plays by the rules no one else should either. It doesn't get simpler than that.
    You could say the same about the US, but 800lb gorillas get to play by their own rules.
  • Meanwhile, the hard right is as casual about violence as the hard left:

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1068958448132521990?s=21
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325
    Extremists always downplay their own side and outrage over the other. Hypocrisy abounds. And Owen Jones is clearly an extremist.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Are we expecting any polls tonight?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,399
    Mortimer said:

    Are we expecting any polls tonight?

    I'm hoping for another ministerial resignation...
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Owen Jones seems to have taken a shit with his clothes on.

    His apologism for a woman who threatened to smash in a journalist's face with a baseball bat has gone down like a bucket of cold sick on Twitter.


  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Theo said:

    Extremists always downplay their own side and outrage over the other. Hypocrisy abounds. And Owen Jones is clearly an extremist.
    Owen Jones is a wee gobshite.
  • Mortimer said:

    Are we expecting any polls tonight?

    I'm hoping for an Opinium, I took part in one earlier on this week and it would fit their publishing cycle.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    Mortimer said:

    Are we expecting any polls tonight?

    I'm hoping for another ministerial resignation...
    Gyimah's resignation was out of the blue and a bit random. You'd think he would have done it as near the vote as possible.

    *Unless* there's a pre-planned remainer resignation timetable in play.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    Mortimer said:

    Are we expecting any polls tonight?

    I'm hoping for an Opinium, I took part in one earlier on this week and it would fit their publishing cycle.
    Thanks TSE.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    Mortimer said:

    Are we expecting any polls tonight?

    I'm hoping for an Opinium, I took part in one earlier on this week and it would fit their publishing cycle.
    I'm firing up my Schulze method calculator in anticipation.

    SPICY CONDORCET CHAT ACTIVATE
  • Owen Jones seems to have taken a shit with his clothes on.

    His apologism for a woman who threatened to smash in a journalist's face with a baseball bat has gone down like a bucket of cold sick on Twitter.


    Owen Jones and Kate Osamor are pound shop Boris Johnsons.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Owen Jones seems to have taken a shit with his clothes on.

    His apologism for a woman who threatened to smash in a journalist's face with a baseball bat has gone down like a bucket of cold sick on Twitter.


    Do you often get naked to sit on the toilet?

    *gets coat*
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    I see Aldi are advertising a marzipan stollen. Why don't they just call the police?
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,211

    Mortimer said:

    Are we expecting any polls tonight?

    I'm hoping for an Opinium, I took part in one earlier on this week and it would fit their publishing cycle.
    But usually the poll is published early evening (5.00pm ish) isn’t it?
  • JohnO said:

    Mortimer said:

    Are we expecting any polls tonight?

    I'm hoping for an Opinium, I took part in one earlier on this week and it would fit their publishing cycle.
    But usually the poll is published early evening (5.00pm ish) isn’t it?
    Yup.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,399

    Mortimer said:

    Are we expecting any polls tonight?

    I'm hoping for another ministerial resignation...
    Gyimah's resignation was out of the blue and a bit random. You'd think he would have done it as near the vote as possible.

    *Unless* there's a pre-planned remainer resignation timetable in play.
    That's what I'm hoping for.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    Mortimer said:

    Are we expecting any polls tonight?

    I'm hoping for another ministerial resignation...
    Gyimah's resignation was out of the blue and a bit random. You'd think he would have done it as near the vote as possible.

    *Unless* there's a pre-planned remainer resignation timetable in play.
    That's what I'm hoping for.
    It's one-all on the resignation stakes this weekend IIRC.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751

    Mortimer said:

    Are we expecting any polls tonight?

    I'm hoping for another ministerial resignation...
    Gyimah's resignation was out of the blue and a bit random. You'd think he would have done it as near the vote as possible.

    *Unless* there's a pre-planned remainer resignation timetable in play.
    That's what I'm hoping for.
    The Advent Calendar series?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    I see Aldi are advertising a marzipan stollen. Why don't they just call the police?

    There's been a drive-by punning.

    Oh the huge manatee.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    ydoethur said:

    Mortimer said:

    Are we expecting any polls tonight?

    I'm hoping for another ministerial resignation...
    Gyimah's resignation was out of the blue and a bit random. You'd think he would have done it as near the vote as possible.

    *Unless* there's a pre-planned remainer resignation timetable in play.
    That's what I'm hoping for.
    The Advent Calendar series?
    Behind door 11 is a chocolate Michael Gove holding an English-Norwegian phrase book.
  • Pre-planned is a horrendous tautology isn't it?
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    Scott_P said:
    Isn't Corbyn overseas at the moment hanging out with his Latin American lefty mates? He won't make an appointment until he gets home at a rough guess
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751

    ydoethur said:

    Mortimer said:

    Are we expecting any polls tonight?

    I'm hoping for another ministerial resignation...
    Gyimah's resignation was out of the blue and a bit random. You'd think he would have done it as near the vote as possible.

    *Unless* there's a pre-planned remainer resignation timetable in play.
    That's what I'm hoping for.
    The Advent Calendar series?
    Behind door 11 is a chocolate Michael Gove holding an English-Norwegian phrase book.
    Fuck me, that's a horrible image to spring on a teacher.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    edited December 2018

    ydoethur said:

    Mortimer said:

    Are we expecting any polls tonight?

    I'm hoping for another ministerial resignation...
    Gyimah's resignation was out of the blue and a bit random. You'd think he would have done it as near the vote as possible.

    *Unless* there's a pre-planned remainer resignation timetable in play.
    That's what I'm hoping for.
    The Advent Calendar series?
    Behind door 11 is a chocolate Michael Gove holding an English-Norwegian phrase book.
    Mmmm... what is the english for Enhjørning?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    What do we think of the rumours that Ed Miliband might be offered it?
  • Pre-planned is a horrendous tautology isn't it?

    Yes, but in an age when "Brexit means Brexit" is a viable political slogan I fear that the battle was lost long ago.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    edited December 2018

    Pre-planned is a horrendous tautology isn't it?

    If you'd worked with some of the muppets I have over the years you'd understand there is a time and a place for the term 'post-planned'.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    The NC9 congressional scandal is getting deeper and more detailed. It seems a clearly organised effort to con elderly voters out of their absentee ballot and to either destroy them or get them submitted for the GOP candidate if not already filled in.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    ydoethur said:

    Mortimer said:

    Are we expecting any polls tonight?

    I'm hoping for another ministerial resignation...
    Gyimah's resignation was out of the blue and a bit random. You'd think he would have done it as near the vote as possible.

    *Unless* there's a pre-planned remainer resignation timetable in play.
    That's what I'm hoping for.
    The Advent Calendar series?
    Behind door 11 is a chocolate Michael Gove holding an English-Norwegian phrase book.
    Behind door 12 is a chocolate teapot pointing to Theresa May's deal.....and laughing.
  • What do we think of the rumours that Ed Miliband might be offered it?

    Speaking as someone who has bet at 200/1 that Ed Miliband will be Jeremy Corbyn’s successor, I’m all in favour.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    TMay has to win the MV; her future, and arguably the country's, depends on it.

    She can probably convince a few Tory waverers but the hardline ERG headbangers have nothing to lose, and potentially everything to gain, from seeing the MV fail.

    Therefore she has to reach out to the opposition, for whom, taken at face value, the WA is not really so bad.

    Two questions:

    1. Is she or are her advisers intelligent enough to understand that.

    2. If so, what can they offer Labour? (Since the SNP/LDs/PC together don't have sufficient numbers.)
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038

    ydoethur said:

    Mortimer said:

    Are we expecting any polls tonight?

    I'm hoping for another ministerial resignation...
    Gyimah's resignation was out of the blue and a bit random. You'd think he would have done it as near the vote as possible.

    *Unless* there's a pre-planned remainer resignation timetable in play.
    That's what I'm hoping for.
    The Advent Calendar series?
    Behind door 11 is a chocolate Michael Gove holding an English-Norwegian phrase book.
    Behind door 12 is a chocolate teapot pointing to Theresa May's deal.....and laughing.
    If she faces near-certain defeat, why are the current betting odds 1.14 and not 1.01? That's a return of 14% within ten days.

    Commentators seem to think that she must already have a plan B.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    ydoethur said:

    Mortimer said:

    Are we expecting any polls tonight?

    I'm hoping for another ministerial resignation...
    Gyimah's resignation was out of the blue and a bit random. You'd think he would have done it as near the vote as possible.

    *Unless* there's a pre-planned remainer resignation timetable in play.
    That's what I'm hoping for.
    The Advent Calendar series?
    Behind door 11 is a chocolate Michael Gove holding an English-Norwegian phrase book.
    Behind door 12 is a chocolate teapot pointing to Theresa May's deal.....and laughing.
    Just remind me again Marquee what is so terrible about May's deal?
  • Pre-planned is a horrendous tautology isn't it?

    If you'd worked with some of the muppets I have over the years you'd understand there is a time and a place for the term 'post-planned'.
    I once met a real life Gus Hedges.

  • What do we think of the rumours that Ed Miliband might be offered it?

    Speaking as someone who has bet at 200/1 that Ed Miliband will be Jeremy Corbyn’s successor, I’m all in favour.
    Would be a turn up! But his reputation in the party has grown since he stepped down
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038

    What do we think of the rumours that Ed Miliband might be offered it?

    Speaking as someone who has bet at 200/1 that Ed Miliband will be Jeremy Corbyn’s successor, I’m all in favour.
    Would be a turn up! But his reputation in the party has grown since he stepped down
    He's OK in interviews, now that the pressure of high office is no longer there.

    But what can he do that Emily Thornberry or Stella Creasy couldn't do better?
    Thornberry at PMQs could probably reduce May to mumbled incoherence.

    Or there's Jess Phillips who

    a) left the Labour party due to Iraq
    b) told Diane Abbott to f*** off

    though not apparently at the same time.
  • Meanwhile, a new YouGov poll published on Sunday shows support for staying in the EU at the highest level recorded by the company since the 2016 referendum. The poll of 1,655 people conducted last week shows remaining in the EU now has a 10-point lead over leaving when people are asked whether or not they want to proceed with Brexit.

    In the survey for the People’s Vote campaign, support for staying is now at 55% compared with 45% for leaving the EU once “don’t knows are excluded”. Separate surveys conducted in the four neighbouring London seats represented by Corbyn, shadow foreign secretary Emily Thornberry, shadow home secretary Diane Abbott and Starmer show overwhelming support, and suggest all four would lose votes to other parties if Labour eventually backed a Brexit deal.

    While Theresa May, who was attending the G20 summit in Argentina on Saturday, insists she will win over sufficient MPs to get her Brexit deal through parliament, evidence emerged on Saturday night that Conservative activists overwhelmingly oppose the deal. A survey of Tory members by ConservativeHome found 72% of Tory members are against it while only 25% back it.

    On Saturday the Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe urged May to do everything she could to avoid a no-deal Brexit, suggesting that investors from Japan need predictability and stability.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/01/labour-figures-urge-party-prepare-new-brexit-vote?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787

    ydoethur said:

    Mortimer said:

    Are we expecting any polls tonight?

    I'm hoping for another ministerial resignation...
    Gyimah's resignation was out of the blue and a bit random. You'd think he would have done it as near the vote as possible.

    *Unless* there's a pre-planned remainer resignation timetable in play.
    That's what I'm hoping for.
    The Advent Calendar series?
    Behind door 11 is a chocolate Michael Gove holding an English-Norwegian phrase book.
    Behind door 12 is a chocolate teapot pointing to Theresa May's deal.....and laughing.
    If she faces near-certain defeat, why are the current betting odds 1.14 and not 1.01? That's a return of 14% within ten days.

    Commentators seem to think that she must already have a plan B.
    Her Plan A is working perfectly. She’s planning some amazing political judo to come out on top.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    I do hope the toerags who did this - https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6449745/WWII-veteran-98-dies-callous-robber-attack.html - are swiftly caught and punished. Despicable.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    Meanwhile, a new YouGov poll published on Sunday shows support for staying in the EU at the highest level recorded by the company since the 2016 referendum. The poll of 1,655 people conducted last week shows remaining in the EU now has a 10-point lead over leaving when people are asked whether or not they want to proceed with Brexit.

    In the survey for the People’s Vote campaign, support for staying is now at 55% compared with 45% for leaving the EU once “don’t knows are excluded”. Separate surveys conducted in the four neighbouring London seats represented by Corbyn, shadow foreign secretary Emily Thornberry, shadow home secretary Diane Abbott and Starmer show overwhelming support, and suggest all four would lose votes to other parties if Labour eventually backed a Brexit deal.

    While Theresa May, who was attending the G20 summit in Argentina on Saturday, insists she will win over sufficient MPs to get her Brexit deal through parliament, evidence emerged on Saturday night that Conservative activists overwhelmingly oppose the deal. A survey of Tory members by ConservativeHome found 72% of Tory members are against it while only 25% back it.

    On Saturday the Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe urged May to do everything she could to avoid a no-deal Brexit, suggesting that investors from Japan need predictability and stability.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/01/labour-figures-urge-party-prepare-new-brexit-vote?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    "...evidence emerged on Saturday night that Conservative activists overwhelmingly oppose the deal. A survey of Tory members by ConservativeHome found 72% of Tory members are against it while only 25% back it."

    Genuine question: how closely do ConservativeHome poll respondents reflect Conservative members?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    ydoethur said:

    Mortimer said:

    Are we expecting any polls tonight?

    I'm hoping for another ministerial resignation...
    Gyimah's resignation was out of the blue and a bit random. You'd think he would have done it as near the vote as possible.

    *Unless* there's a pre-planned remainer resignation timetable in play.
    That's what I'm hoping for.
    The Advent Calendar series?
    Behind door 11 is a chocolate Michael Gove holding an English-Norwegian phrase book.
    Behind door 12 is a chocolate teapot pointing to Theresa May's deal.....and laughing.
    Just remind me again Marquee what is so terrible about May's deal?
    One word? Backstop.

    Hotel California Brexit is no Brexit. It gives away our negotiating position for the Trade Agreement.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751

    Meanwhile, a new YouGov poll published on Sunday shows support for staying in the EU at the highest level recorded by the company since the 2016 referendum. The poll of 1,655 people conducted last week shows remaining in the EU now has a 10-point lead over leaving when people are asked whether or not they want to proceed with Brexit.

    In the survey for the People’s Vote campaign, support for staying is now at 55% compared with 45% for leaving the EU once “don’t knows are excluded”. Separate surveys conducted in the four neighbouring London seats represented by Corbyn, shadow foreign secretary Emily Thornberry, shadow home secretary Diane Abbott and Starmer show overwhelming support, and suggest all four would lose votes to other parties if Labour eventually backed a Brexit deal.

    While Theresa May, who was attending the G20 summit in Argentina on Saturday, insists she will win over sufficient MPs to get her Brexit deal through parliament, evidence emerged on Saturday night that Conservative activists overwhelmingly oppose the deal. A survey of Tory members by ConservativeHome found 72% of Tory members are against it while only 25% back it.

    On Saturday the Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe urged May to do everything she could to avoid a no-deal Brexit, suggesting that investors from Japan need predictability and stability.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/01/labour-figures-urge-party-prepare-new-brexit-vote?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    "...evidence emerged on Saturday night that Conservative activists overwhelmingly oppose the deal. A survey of Tory members by ConservativeHome found 72% of Tory members are against it while only 25% back it."

    Genuine question: how closely do ConservativeHome poll respondents reflect Conservative members?
    I think that comment says more about the casual verification procedures of certain journalists than about Conservative activists.

    Which is a shame because along with the Financial Times the Guardian is one paper I thought was resisting the collapse in quality across the sector.
  • Meanwhile, a new YouGov poll published on Sunday shows support for staying in the EU at the highest level recorded by the company since the 2016 referendum. The poll of 1,655 people conducted last week shows remaining in the EU now has a 10-point lead over leaving when people are asked whether or not they want to proceed with Brexit.

    In the survey for the People’s Vote campaign, support for staying is now at 55% compared with 45% for leaving the EU once “don’t knows are excluded”. Separate surveys conducted in the four neighbouring London seats represented by Corbyn, shadow foreign secretary Emily Thornberry, shadow home secretary Diane Abbott and Starmer show overwhelming support, and suggest all four would lose votes to other parties if Labour eventually backed a Brexit deal.

    While Theresa May, who was attending the G20 summit in Argentina on Saturday, insists she will win over sufficient MPs to get her Brexit deal through parliament, evidence emerged on Saturday night that Conservative activists overwhelmingly oppose the deal. A survey of Tory members by ConservativeHome found 72% of Tory members are against it while only 25% back it.

    On Saturday the Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe urged May to do everything she could to avoid a no-deal Brexit, suggesting that investors from Japan need predictability and stability.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/01/labour-figures-urge-party-prepare-new-brexit-vote?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    "...evidence emerged on Saturday night that Conservative activists overwhelmingly oppose the deal. A survey of Tory members by ConservativeHome found 72% of Tory members are against it while only 25% back it."

    Genuine question: how closely do ConservativeHome poll respondents reflect Conservative members?
    Members yes - voters no - it is ERG to the core
  • ydoethur said:

    Mortimer said:

    Are we expecting any polls tonight?

    I'm hoping for another ministerial resignation...
    Gyimah's resignation was out of the blue and a bit random. You'd think he would have done it as near the vote as possible.

    *Unless* there's a pre-planned remainer resignation timetable in play.
    That's what I'm hoping for.
    The Advent Calendar series?
    Behind door 11 is a chocolate Michael Gove holding an English-Norwegian phrase book.
    Behind door 12 is a chocolate teapot pointing to Theresa May's deal.....and laughing.
    Just remind me again Marquee what is so terrible about May's deal?
    One word? Backstop.

    Hotel California Brexit is no Brexit. It gives away our negotiating position for the Trade Agreement.
    So in pursuit of "true Brexit" you are prepared to risk massive damage to the economy?
  • Meanwhile, a new YouGov poll published on Sunday shows support for staying in the EU at the highest level recorded by the company since the 2016 referendum. The poll of 1,655 people conducted last week shows remaining in the EU now has a 10-point lead over leaving when people are asked whether or not they want to proceed with Brexit.

    In the survey for the People’s Vote campaign, support for staying is now at 55% compared with 45% for leaving the EU once “don’t knows are excluded”. Separate surveys conducted in the four neighbouring London seats represented by Corbyn, shadow foreign secretary Emily Thornberry, shadow home secretary Diane Abbott and Starmer show overwhelming support, and suggest all four would lose votes to other parties if Labour eventually backed a Brexit deal.

    While Theresa May, who was attending the G20 summit in Argentina on Saturday, insists she will win over sufficient MPs to get her Brexit deal through parliament, evidence emerged on Saturday night that Conservative activists overwhelmingly oppose the deal. A survey of Tory members by ConservativeHome found 72% of Tory members are against it while only 25% back it.

    On Saturday the Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe urged May to do everything she could to avoid a no-deal Brexit, suggesting that investors from Japan need predictability and stability.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/01/labour-figures-urge-party-prepare-new-brexit-vote?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    "...evidence emerged on Saturday night that Conservative activists overwhelmingly oppose the deal. A survey of Tory members by ConservativeHome found 72% of Tory members are against it while only 25% back it."

    Genuine question: how closely do ConservativeHome poll respondents reflect Conservative members?
    For years many of us have called it UKIPHome.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831

    Meanwhile, a new YouGov poll published on Sunday shows support for staying in the EU at the highest level recorded by the company since the 2016 referendum. The poll of 1,655 people conducted last week shows remaining in the EU now has a 10-point lead over leaving when people are asked whether or not they want to proceed with Brexit.

    In the survey for the People’s Vote campaign, support for staying is now at 55% compared with 45% for leaving the EU once “don’t knows are excluded”. Separate surveys conducted in the four neighbouring London seats represented by Corbyn, shadow foreign secretary Emily Thornberry, shadow home secretary Diane Abbott and Starmer show overwhelming support, and suggest all four would lose votes to other parties if Labour eventually backed a Brexit deal.

    While Theresa May, who was attending the G20 summit in Argentina on Saturday, insists she will win over sufficient MPs to get her Brexit deal through parliament, evidence emerged on Saturday night that Conservative activists overwhelmingly oppose the deal. A survey of Tory members by ConservativeHome found 72% of Tory members are against it while only 25% back it.

    On Saturday the Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe urged May to do everything she could to avoid a no-deal Brexit, suggesting that investors from Japan need predictability and stability.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/01/labour-figures-urge-party-prepare-new-brexit-vote?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    'In the survey for the People's Vote campaign' - that says it all to me.

    I am sure YouGov did everything to stay within polling rules - but I do always question polling done on behalf of specific campaign groups.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900


    Commentators seem to think that she must already have a plan B.

    I'm thinking the plan B involves a public vote, whether referendum or a general election. Why else all the direct appeals to the wider public?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787

    Meanwhile, a new YouGov poll published on Sunday shows support for staying in the EU at the highest level recorded by the company since the 2016 referendum. The poll of 1,655 people conducted last week shows remaining in the EU now has a 10-point lead over leaving when people are asked whether or not they want to proceed with Brexit.

    In the survey for the People’s Vote campaign, support for staying is now at 55% compared with 45% for leaving the EU once “don’t knows are excluded”. Separate surveys conducted in the four neighbouring London seats represented by Corbyn, shadow foreign secretary Emily Thornberry, shadow home secretary Diane Abbott and Starmer show overwhelming support, and suggest all four would lose votes to other parties if Labour eventually backed a Brexit deal.

    While Theresa May, who was attending the G20 summit in Argentina on Saturday, insists she will win over sufficient MPs to get her Brexit deal through parliament, evidence emerged on Saturday night that Conservative activists overwhelmingly oppose the deal. A survey of Tory members by ConservativeHome found 72% of Tory members are against it while only 25% back it.

    On Saturday the Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe urged May to do everything she could to avoid a no-deal Brexit, suggesting that investors from Japan need predictability and stability.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/01/labour-figures-urge-party-prepare-new-brexit-vote?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    'In the survey for the People's Vote campaign' - that says it all to me.

    I am sure YouGov did everything to stay within polling rules - but I do always question polling done on behalf of specific campaign groups.
    They were given a big donation by the Superdry founder specifically to pay for polling.
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325

    ydoethur said:

    Mortimer said:

    Are we expecting any polls tonight?

    I'm hoping for another ministerial resignation...
    Gyimah's resignation was out of the blue and a bit random. You'd think he would have done it as near the vote as possible.

    *Unless* there's a pre-planned remainer resignation timetable in play.
    That's what I'm hoping for.
    The Advent Calendar series?
    Behind door 11 is a chocolate Michael Gove holding an English-Norwegian phrase book.
    Behind door 12 is a chocolate teapot pointing to Theresa May's deal.....and laughing.
    Just remind me again Marquee what is so terrible about May's deal?
    One word? Backstop.

    Hotel California Brexit is no Brexit. It gives away our negotiating position for the Trade Agreement.
    No, it doesn't. It takes away the EU's negotiating position as it means they can no longer threaten to close the border. All those scare stories about lorries backed up at Dover, or medicines not arriving or our supply chains broken will be invalidated.

    And it's like any international treaty. We can withdraw from it whenever we want to.
  • Meanwhile, a new YouGov poll published on Sunday shows support for staying in the EU at the highest level recorded by the company since the 2016 referendum. The poll of 1,655 people conducted last week shows remaining in the EU now has a 10-point lead over leaving when people are asked whether or not they want to proceed with Brexit.

    In the survey for the People’s Vote campaign, support for staying is now at 55% compared with 45% for leaving the EU once “don’t knows are excluded”. Separate surveys conducted in the four neighbouring London seats represented by Corbyn, shadow foreign secretary Emily Thornberry, shadow home secretary Diane Abbott and Starmer show overwhelming support, and suggest all four would lose votes to other parties if Labour eventually backed a Brexit deal.

    While Theresa May, who was attending the G20 summit in Argentina on Saturday, insists she will win over sufficient MPs to get her Brexit deal through parliament, evidence emerged on Saturday night that Conservative activists overwhelmingly oppose the deal. A survey of Tory members by ConservativeHome found 72% of Tory members are against it while only 25% back it.

    On Saturday the Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe urged May to do everything she could to avoid a no-deal Brexit, suggesting that investors from Japan need predictability and stability.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/01/labour-figures-urge-party-prepare-new-brexit-vote?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    'In the survey for the People's Vote campaign' - that says it all to me.

    I am sure YouGov did everything to stay within polling rules - but I do always question polling done on behalf of specific campaign groups.
    You sound like a Corbynista moaning about Tory YouGov.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    Meanwhile, a new YouGov poll published on Sunday shows support for staying in the EU at the highest level recorded by the company since the 2016 referendum. The poll of 1,655 people conducted last week shows remaining in the EU now has a 10-point lead over leaving when people are asked whether or not they want to proceed with Brexit.

    In the survey for the People’s Vote campaign, support for staying is now at 55% compared with 45% for leaving the EU once “don’t knows are excluded”. Separate surveys conducted in the four neighbouring London seats represented by Corbyn, shadow foreign secretary Emily Thornberry, shadow home secretary Diane Abbott and Starmer show overwhelming support, and suggest all four would lose votes to other parties if Labour eventually backed a Brexit deal.

    While Theresa May, who was attending the G20 summit in Argentina on Saturday, insists she will win over sufficient MPs to get her Brexit deal through parliament, evidence emerged on Saturday night that Conservative activists overwhelmingly oppose the deal. A survey of Tory members by ConservativeHome found 72% of Tory members are against it while only 25% back it.

    On Saturday the Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe urged May to do everything she could to avoid a no-deal Brexit, suggesting that investors from Japan need predictability and stability.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/01/labour-figures-urge-party-prepare-new-brexit-vote?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    "...evidence emerged on Saturday night that Conservative activists overwhelmingly oppose the deal. A survey of Tory members by ConservativeHome found 72% of Tory members are against it while only 25% back it."

    Genuine question: how closely do ConservativeHome poll respondents reflect Conservative members?
    Members yes - voters no - it is ERG to the core
    ConHome's poll is self-selecting, but it has often turned up real trends amongst Tory *activists* (not members).

    Tory activists being 75% against feels credible to me.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215



    2. If so, what can they offer Labour? (Since the SNP/LDs/PC together don't have sufficient numbers.)

    An election.
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325
    Cyclefree said:

    I do hope the toerags who did this - https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6449745/WWII-veteran-98-dies-callous-robber-attack.html - are swiftly caught and punished. Despicable.

    They deserve life in prison.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    ydoethur said:

    Mortimer said:

    Are we expecting any polls tonight?

    I'm hoping for another ministerial resignation...
    Gyimah's resignation was out of the blue and a bit random. You'd think he would have done it as near the vote as possible.

    *Unless* there's a pre-planned remainer resignation timetable in play.
    That's what I'm hoping for.
    The Advent Calendar series?
    Behind door 11 is a chocolate Michael Gove holding an English-Norwegian phrase book.
    Behind door 12 is a chocolate teapot pointing to Theresa May's deal.....and laughing.
    Just remind me again Marquee what is so terrible about May's deal?
    One word? Backstop.

    Hotel California Brexit is no Brexit. It gives away our negotiating position for the Trade Agreement.
    If the EU played hardball, there's always abrogation. But they'll be keener than us to avoid an open-ended backstop because all the while we're in it we get free EU market access.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,398
    edited December 2018
    DanSmith said:



    2. If so, what can they offer Labour? (Since the SNP/LDs/PC together don't have sufficient numbers.)

    An election.
    Which solves what? The justification for a GE is to negotiate a new deal, how can it be the price for support on the MV?

    ydoethur said:

    Mortimer said:

    Are we expecting any polls tonight?

    I'm hoping for another ministerial resignation...
    Gyimah's resignation was out of the blue and a bit random. You'd think he would have done it as near the vote as possible.

    *Unless* there's a pre-planned remainer resignation timetable in play.
    That's what I'm hoping for.
    The Advent Calendar series?
    Behind door 11 is a chocolate Michael Gove holding an English-Norwegian phrase book.
    Behind door 12 is a chocolate teapot pointing to Theresa May's deal.....and laughing.
    Just remind me again Marquee what is so terrible about May's deal?
    One word? Backstop.

    Hotel California Brexit is no Brexit. It gives away our negotiating position for the Trade Agreement.
    As people pretending to be wise kept saying over and over again, Brexit is Brexit. Deal Brexit is still Brexit, there is no use pretending otherwise just because it is sub-optimal Brexit.

    It's being rejected, and goodness only knows what we will get in its place, but let's stop this nonsense that it is not Brexit. We leave the EU under it, it is Brexit. Is it a Brexit worth having? Most people say no, that doesn't make it not Brexit no matter how many people cry about it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    Meanwhile, a new YouGov poll published on Sunday shows support for staying in the EU at the highest level recorded by the company since the 2016 referendum. The poll of 1,655 people conducted last week shows remaining in the EU now has a 10-point lead over leaving when people are asked whether or not they want to proceed with Brexit.

    In the survey for the People’s Vote campaign, support for staying is now at 55% compared with 45% for leaving the EU once “don’t knows are excluded”. Separate surveys conducted in the four neighbouring London seats represented by Corbyn, shadow foreign secretary Emily Thornberry, shadow home secretary Diane Abbott and Starmer show overwhelming support, and suggest all four would lose votes to other parties if Labour eventually backed a Brexit deal.

    While Theresa May, who was attending the G20 summit in Argentina on Saturday, insists she will win over sufficient MPs to get her Brexit deal through parliament, evidence emerged on Saturday night that Conservative activists overwhelmingly oppose the deal. A survey of Tory members by ConservativeHome found 72% of Tory members are against it while only 25% back it.

    On Saturday the Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe urged May to do everything she could to avoid a no-deal Brexit, suggesting that investors from Japan need predictability and stability.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/01/labour-figures-urge-party-prepare-new-brexit-vote?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    "...evidence emerged on Saturday night that Conservative activists overwhelmingly oppose the deal. A survey of Tory members by ConservativeHome found 72% of Tory members are against it while only 25% back it."

    Genuine question: how closely do ConservativeHome poll respondents reflect Conservative members?
    Members yes - voters no - it is ERG to the core
    I agree on that, Tory voters were split 46% in favour of the Deal, 38% against with YouGov last week. That is helped by Tory Remainers I expect as Leavers oppose the Deal by 33% to 46%

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/lajwilf9ez/TheTimes_181129_Brexit_w.pdf

    I expect even most Tory members would still back the Deal over Remain even if they want a purer Brexit
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    Theo said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mortimer said:

    Are we expecting any polls tonight?

    I'm hoping for another ministerial resignation...
    Gyimah's resignation was out of the blue and a bit random. You'd think he would have done it as near the vote as possible.

    *Unless* there's a pre-planned remainer resignation timetable in play.
    That's what I'm hoping for.
    The Advent Calendar series?
    Behind door 11 is a chocolate Michael Gove holding an English-Norwegian phrase book.
    Behind door 12 is a chocolate teapot pointing to Theresa May's deal.....and laughing.
    Just remind me again Marquee what is so terrible about May's deal?
    One word? Backstop.

    Hotel California Brexit is no Brexit. It gives away our negotiating position for the Trade Agreement.
    No, it doesn't. It takes away the EU's negotiating position as it means they can no longer threaten to close the border. All those scare stories about lorries backed up at Dover, or medicines not arriving or our supply chains broken will be invalidated.
    Take a look at the Turkey-EU border and you'll see that that's nonsense. The backstop provisions for Northern Ireland are very different to the rest of the UK.
  • Meanwhile, a new YouGov poll published on Sunday shows support for staying in the EU at the highest level recorded by the company since the 2016 referendum. The poll of 1,655 people conducted last week shows remaining in the EU now has a 10-point lead over leaving when people are asked whether or not they want to proceed with Brexit.

    In the survey for the People’s Vote campaign, support for staying is now at 55% compared with 45% for leaving the EU once “don’t knows are excluded”. Separate surveys conducted in the four neighbouring London seats represented by Corbyn, shadow foreign secretary Emily Thornberry, shadow home secretary Diane Abbott and Starmer show overwhelming support, and suggest all four would lose votes to other parties if Labour eventually backed a Brexit deal.

    While Theresa May, who was attending the G20 summit in Argentina on Saturday, insists she will win over sufficient MPs to get her Brexit deal through parliament, evidence emerged on Saturday night that Conservative activists overwhelmingly oppose the deal. A survey of Tory members by ConservativeHome found 72% of Tory members are against it while only 25% back it.

    On Saturday the Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe urged May to do everything she could to avoid a no-deal Brexit, suggesting that investors from Japan need predictability and stability.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/01/labour-figures-urge-party-prepare-new-brexit-vote?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    "...evidence emerged on Saturday night that Conservative activists overwhelmingly oppose the deal. A survey of Tory members by ConservativeHome found 72% of Tory members are against it while only 25% back it."

    Genuine question: how closely do ConservativeHome poll respondents reflect Conservative members?
    Members yes - voters no - it is ERG to the core
    ConHome's poll is self-selecting, but it has often turned up real trends amongst Tory *activists* (not members).

    Tory activists being 75% against feels credible to me.
    Activists agreed
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    DanSmith said:



    2. If so, what can they offer Labour? (Since the SNP/LDs/PC together don't have sufficient numbers.)

    An election.
    Yes, that was on my mind too.

    No 10 cannot strictly offer an election (due to FTPA) but they could presumably make an open commitment to whip support for one, which if Labour supported too should breach the 2/3 majority required.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    ydoethur said:

    Mortimer said:

    Are we expecting any polls tonight?

    I'm hoping for another ministerial resignation...
    Gyimah's resignation was out of the blue and a bit random. You'd think he would have done it as near the vote as possible.

    *Unless* there's a pre-planned remainer resignation timetable in play.
    That's what I'm hoping for.
    The Advent Calendar series?
    Behind door 11 is a chocolate Michael Gove holding an English-Norwegian phrase book.
    Behind door 12 is a chocolate teapot pointing to Theresa May's deal.....and laughing.
    Just remind me again Marquee what is so terrible about May's deal?
    One word? Backstop.

    Hotel California Brexit is no Brexit. It gives away our negotiating position for the Trade Agreement.
    So in pursuit of "true Brexit" you are prepared to risk massive damage to the economy?
    The blame - and my disdain - is for those who risked that "massive damage" by refusing to have planned for No Deal.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,398
    Scott_P said:
    Does it say what position Labour would be supporting in a new referendum?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    edited December 2018

    ydoethur said:

    Mortimer said:

    Are we expecting any polls tonight?

    I'm hoping for another ministerial resignation...
    Gyimah's resignation was out of the blue and a bit random. You'd think he would have done it as near the vote as possible.

    *Unless* there's a pre-planned remainer resignation timetable in play.
    That's what I'm hoping for.
    The Advent Calendar series?
    Behind door 11 is a chocolate Michael Gove holding an English-Norwegian phrase book.
    Behind door 12 is a chocolate teapot pointing to Theresa May's deal.....and laughing.
    Just remind me again Marquee what is so terrible about May's deal?
    One word? Backstop.

    Hotel California Brexit is no Brexit. It gives away our negotiating position for the Trade Agreement.
    So in pursuit of "true Brexit" you are prepared to risk massive damage to the economy?
    The blame - and my disdain - is for those who risked that "massive damage" by refusing to have planned for No Deal.

    But Leavers said in 2016 no deal was just Project Fear.

    Want me to list all the times David Davis thought it would be easy?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    ydoethur said:

    Mortimer said:

    Are we expecting any polls tonight?

    I'm hoping for another ministerial resignation...
    Gyimah's resignation was out of the blue and a bit random. You'd think he would have done it as near the vote as possible.

    *Unless* there's a pre-planned remainer resignation timetable in play.
    That's what I'm hoping for.
    The Advent Calendar series?
    Behind door 11 is a chocolate Michael Gove holding an English-Norwegian phrase book.
    Behind door 12 is a chocolate teapot pointing to Theresa May's deal.....and laughing.
    Just remind me again Marquee what is so terrible about May's deal?
    One word? Backstop.

    Hotel California Brexit is no Brexit. It gives away our negotiating position for the Trade Agreement.
    So in pursuit of "true Brexit" you are prepared to risk massive damage to the economy?
    The blame - and my disdain - is for those who risked that "massive damage" by refusing to have planned for No Deal.

    It's always somebody else's fault. It's a bit like a burglar blaming the victim for 'refusing to put in place proper security'.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Does it say what position Labour would be supporting in a new referendum?
    They would be supporting their arses on top of a fence.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723

    ydoethur said:

    Mortimer said:

    Are we expecting any polls tonight?

    I'm hoping for another ministerial resignation...
    Gyimah's resignation was out of the blue and a bit random. You'd think he would have done it as near the vote as possible.

    *Unless* there's a pre-planned remainer resignation timetable in play.
    That's what I'm hoping for.
    The Advent Calendar series?
    Behind door 11 is a chocolate Michael Gove holding an English-Norwegian phrase book.
    Behind door 12 is a chocolate teapot pointing to Theresa May's deal.....and laughing.
    Just remind me again Marquee what is so terrible about May's deal?
    One word? Backstop.

    Hotel California Brexit is no Brexit. It gives away our negotiating position for the Trade Agreement.
    Ben asked me exactly the same question on Wednesday I used the same one word answer

    Backstop
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Does it say what position Labour would be supporting in a new referendum?
    Heads we win, tails we toss again?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Does it say what position Labour would be supporting in a new referendum?
    The tactical mistake everyone has made is to say that May has screwed up the negotiations. It's means they're trapped in the logic of saying we need to go back to renegotiate. Meanwhile May is executing her real plan.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,398

    ydoethur said:

    Mortimer said:

    Are we expecting any polls tonight?

    I'm hoping for another ministerial resignation...
    Gyimah's resignation was out of the blue and a bit random. You'd think he would have done it as near the vote as possible.

    *Unless* there's a pre-planned remainer resignation timetable in play.
    That's what I'm hoping for.
    The Advent Calendar series?
    Behind door 11 is a chocolate Michael Gove holding an English-Norwegian phrase book.
    Behind door 12 is a chocolate teapot pointing to Theresa May's deal.....and laughing.
    Just remind me again Marquee what is so terrible about May's deal?
    One word? Backstop.

    Hotel California Brexit is no Brexit. It gives away our negotiating position for the Trade Agreement.
    So in pursuit of "true Brexit" you are prepared to risk massive damage to the economy?
    The blame - and my disdain - is for those who risked that "massive damage" by refusing to have planned for No Deal.

    Weaksauce. Even if the people preparing the ground up to a significant choice deserve the greater share of blame, we are all still responsible for our own choices. There are options which avoid no deal entirely. It may be justifiable to risk that because of the failures of others to secure something else or prepare properly, but any MP casting their vote cannot say that they did not have a choice. They do, even if it is shitty or limited in a way they do not like because of others. No matter how much opprobrium anyone else deserves for the pathetic state of affairs we are in, they are still accountable whichever option they end up choosing.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    ydoethur said:

    Mortimer said:

    Are we expecting any polls tonight?

    I'm hoping for another ministerial resignation...
    Gyimah's resignation was out of the blue and a bit random. You'd think he would have done it as near the vote as possible.

    *Unless* there's a pre-planned remainer resignation timetable in play.
    That's what I'm hoping for.
    The Advent Calendar series?
    Behind door 11 is a chocolate Michael Gove holding an English-Norwegian phrase book.
    Behind door 12 is a chocolate teapot pointing to Theresa May's deal.....and laughing.
    Just remind me again Marquee what is so terrible about May's deal?
    One word? Backstop.

    Hotel California Brexit is no Brexit. It gives away our negotiating position for the Trade Agreement.
    If the EU played hardball, there's always abrogation. But they'll be keener than us to avoid an open-ended backstop because all the while we're in it we get free EU market access.
    And that is what the Tory MPs have to weigh up. PM May will never talk abrogation. A new leader who does might stand a chance of getting much of the party on board. Maybe. I suspect that of the quarter of ConHome correspondents saying they would vote for the deal, most hate it but are being pragmatic. 75% hate it and are not.

    Yet.
  • kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Does it say what position Labour would be supporting in a new referendum?
    Remain and lose lots of their seats outside the M25
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,398

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Does it say what position Labour would be supporting in a new referendum?
    They would be supporting their arses on top of a fence.
    Let's be honest, the majority of them will openly back remain no matter if the party officially takes no stance. The second referendum campaign is overwhelmingly about people making the right choice, if remain were not polling well they would not back it as an option. So in all honesty the position of the party doesn't really matter - if they can get the vote, 95% of them will go the route we know they will.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    kle4 said:

    DanSmith said:



    2. If so, what can they offer Labour? (Since the SNP/LDs/PC together don't have sufficient numbers.)

    An election.
    Which solves what? The justification for a GE is to negotiate a new deal, how can it be the price for support on the MV?

    ydoethur said:

    Mortimer said:

    Are we expecting any polls tonight?

    I'm hoping for another ministerial resignation...
    Gyimah's resignation was out of the blue and a bit random. You'd think he would have done it as near the vote as possible.

    *Unless* there's a pre-planned remainer resignation timetable in play.
    That's what I'm hoping for.
    The Advent Calendar series?
    Behind door 11 is a chocolate Michael Gove holding an English-Norwegian phrase book.
    Behind door 12 is a chocolate teapot pointing to Theresa May's deal.....and laughing.
    Just remind me again Marquee what is so terrible about May's deal?
    One word? Backstop.

    Hotel California Brexit is no Brexit. It gives away our negotiating position for the Trade Agreement.
    As people pretending to be wise kept saying over and over again, Brexit is Brexit. Deal Brexit is still Brexit, there is no use pretending otherwise just because it is sub-optimal Brexit.

    It's being rejected, and goodness only knows what we will get in its place, but let's stop this nonsense that it is not Brexit. We leave the EU under it, it is Brexit. Is it a Brexit worth having? Most people say no, that doesn't make it not Brexit no matter how many people cry about it.
    "The justification for a GE is to negotiate a new deal, how can it be the price for support on the MV?"

    Not so. Labour want a new election to gain power and implement socialist policies. Nothing to do with Brexit - they'd surely be happier if Brexit was done and dusted so that they can concentrate on the important stuff.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Does it say what position Labour would be supporting in a new referendum?
    The tactical mistake everyone has made is to say that May has screwed up the negotiations. It's means they're trapped in the logic of saying we need to go back to renegotiate. Meanwhile May is executing her real plan.
    That plan being to suffer the single largest parliamentary humiliation in UK history, followed by resignation?

    A cunning plan indeed.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,398

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Does it say what position Labour would be supporting in a new referendum?
    The tactical mistake everyone has made is to say that May has screwed up the negotiations. It's means they're trapped in the logic of saying we need to go back to renegotiate. Meanwhile May is executing her real plan.
    I don't see how they are trapped. Labour (bar a bare few who keep mostly quiet), a chunk of the Tories and every other MP in the Chamber will campaign for Remain if there's a referendum as they will say they might want to renegotiate but they haven't been given the opportunity so they must remain instead.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,398

    kle4 said:

    DanSmith said:



    2. If so, what can they offer Labour? (Since the SNP/LDs/PC together don't have sufficient numbers.)

    An election.
    Which solves what? The justification for a GE is to negotiate a new deal, how can it be the price for support on the MV?

    ydoethur said:

    Mortimer said:

    Are we expecting any polls tonight?

    I'm hoping for another ministerial resignation...
    Gyimah's resignation was out of the blue and a bit random. You'd think he would have done it as near the vote as possible.

    *Unless* there's a pre-planned remainer resignation timetable in play.
    That's what I'm hoping for.
    The Advent Calendar series?
    Behind door 11 is a chocolate Michael Gove holding an English-Norwegian phrase book.
    Behind door 12 is a chocolate teapot pointing to Theresa May's deal.....and laughing.
    Just remind me again Marquee what is so terrible about May's deal?
    One word? Backstop.

    Hotel California Brexit is no Brexit. It gives away our negotiating position for the Trade Agreement.
    As people pretending to be wise kept saying over and over again, Brexit is Brexit. Deal Brexit is still Brexit, there is no use pretending otherwise just because it is sub-optimal Brexit.

    It's being rejected, and goodness only knows what we will get in its place, but let's stop this nonsense that it is not Brexit. We leave the EU under it, it is Brexit. Is it a Brexit worth having? Most people say no, that doesn't make it not Brexit no matter how many people cry about it.
    "The justification for a GE is to negotiate a new deal, how can it be the price for support on the MV?"

    Not so. Labour want a new election to gain power and implement socialist policies. Nothing to do with Brexit - they'd surely be happier if Brexit was done and dusted so that they can concentrate on the important stuff.
    I said their justification, not their actual reason. The pretext for calling for a GE is that they can do a better job. Yes on everything, but also specifically Brexit.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Does it say what position Labour would be supporting in a new referendum?
    The tactical mistake everyone has made is to say that May has screwed up the negotiations. It's means they're trapped in the logic of saying we need to go back to renegotiate. Meanwhile May is executing her real plan.
    That plan being to suffer the single largest parliamentary humiliation in UK history, followed by resignation?

    A cunning plan indeed.
    May is outmanoeuvring everyone. She's a political genius.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2018
    I know the French national sport is rioting but the clips on the news look really bad. Is this something that will just pass or is macron government got a real crisis here? Is seems like the protests have spread beyond simply the fuel tax rise.

    I think with the rise of China and AI, I think we are going to increasingly see a lot of very angry people across Europe as they realise their job for life, long vacations, early retirement is going to disappear and not sure politicians have any idea how to deal with it.

    Are the French, Italians etc ready to accept that the world is going to overtake them with the Far East willing to work harder and longer and increasingly smarter.
  • I know the French national sport is rioting but the clips on the news look really bad. Is this something that will just pass or is macron government got a real crisis here? Is seems like the protests have spread beyond simply the fuel tax rise.

    I'm always amazed that the nation of collaborators is always up for a fight amongst itself.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,398
    Notwithstanding Mr Herdson's earlier piece, and the procedural difficulties still in play, I don't see how Remain can possibly screw it up from here. Remain Tories are in open revolt just like no dealers, Labour are inches away from pivoting to Remain officially or otherwise since in a referendum they won't back May's deal or no deal, the Tories still won't want a GE, and with neither main party able to articulate consistent support for the deal even before it is overwhelmingly rejected by parliament, Remain has such a good chance of winning now.

    What a waste.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751
    Good grief there are some truly sick bastards out there:
    Scalpel blades found taped to children's slide in Ormskirk
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-46411533
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,398

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Does it say what position Labour would be supporting in a new referendum?
    The tactical mistake everyone has made is to say that May has screwed up the negotiations. It's means they're trapped in the logic of saying we need to go back to renegotiate. Meanwhile May is executing her real plan.
    That plan being to suffer the single largest parliamentary humiliation in UK history, followed by resignation?

    A cunning plan indeed.
    May is outmanoeuvring everyone. She's a political genius.
    And so selfless - sacrificing her own premiership to ensure we Remain.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751
    DavidL said:
    Really? I thought it bombed, myself.

    Good night.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Does it say what position Labour would be supporting in a new referendum?
    The tactical mistake everyone has made is to say that May has screwed up the negotiations. It's means they're trapped in the logic of saying we need to go back to renegotiate. Meanwhile May is executing her real plan.
    That plan being to suffer the single largest parliamentary humiliation in UK history, followed by resignation?

    A cunning plan indeed.
    May is outmanoeuvring everyone. She's a political genius.
    And so selfless - sacrificing her own premiership to ensure we Remain.
    She's not going anywhere, but I think Corbyn's days may be numbered.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    I know the French national sport is rioting but the clips on the news look really bad. Is this something that will just pass or is macron government got a real crisis here? Is seems like the protests have spread beyond simply the fuel tax rise.

    They have a real crisis. Article in the Speccie was saying that the arrests after last weekends riots were just normal people that have no political affiliation or previous records of demonstrating. The Far Left are organising but it is mass countryside side support.
    It is the poor left behind country dwellers versus the Parisian elite (who are viewed as corrupt).
    Jupiter is still trying to be an international statesman with big plans for Europe and having a go a Trump, whilst his people want domestic issues sorted.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    edited December 2018
    Buried in that Telegraph article:

    "A group of City hedge fund managers were weighing up a legal challenge to force the BBC and ITV to allow Boris Johnson... to gatecrash a primetime television debate on the deal..."

    WTF ??
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Meanwhile, a new YouGov poll published on Sunday shows support for staying in the EU at the highest level recorded by the company since the 2016 referendum. The poll of 1,655 people conducted last week shows remaining in the EU now has a 10-point lead over leaving when people are asked whether or not they want to proceed with Brexit.

    In the survey for the People’s Vote campaign, support for staying is now at 55% compared with 45% for leaving the EU once “don’t knows are excluded”. Separate surveys conducted in the four neighbouring London seats represented by Corbyn, shadow foreign secretary Emily Thornberry, shadow home secretary Diane Abbott and Starmer show overwhelming support, and suggest all four would lose votes to other parties if Labour eventually backed a Brexit deal.

    While Theresa May, who was attending the G20 summit in Argentina on Saturday, insists she will win over sufficient MPs to get her Brexit deal through parliament, evidence emerged on Saturday night that Conservative activists overwhelmingly oppose the deal. A survey of Tory members by ConservativeHome found 72% of Tory members are against it while only 25% back it.

    On Saturday the Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe urged May to do everything she could to avoid a no-deal Brexit, suggesting that investors from Japan need predictability and stability.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/01/labour-figures-urge-party-prepare-new-brexit-vote?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    YouGov's "on the day" poll on referendum day 2016 was Remain 52%, Leave 48%.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#On_the_day_YouGov_Poll
This discussion has been closed.