I know the French national sport is rioting but the clips on the news look really bad. Is this something that will just pass or is macron government got a real crisis here? Is seems like the protests have spread beyond simply the fuel tax rise.
I think with the rise of China and AI, I think we are going to increasingly see a lot of very angry people across Europe as they realise their job for life, long vacations, early retirement is going to disappear and not sure politicians have any idea how to deal with it.
Are the French, Italians etc ready to accept that the world is going to overtake them with the Far East willing to work harder and longer and increasingly smarter.
Yes, worrying. The French authorities can't even console themselves that it will all die down once the heatwave breaks, as we do in the UK.
Does it say what position Labour would be supporting in a new referendum?
The tactical mistake everyone has made is to say that May has screwed up the negotiations. It's means they're trapped in the logic of saying we need to go back to renegotiate. Meanwhile May is executing her real plan.
I think that's correct. May's tactics have been good even though no real strategy was detectable - delay until the last moment, present a fudge, portray the absence of a deal in terrifying terms, and ask people to settle for the fudge. It may well work, even though nearly everyone agrees that the fudge is worse than the status quo.
Does it say what position Labour would be supporting in a new referendum?
The tactical mistake everyone has made is to say that May has screwed up the negotiations. It's means they're trapped in the logic of saying we need to go back to renegotiate. Meanwhile May is executing her real plan.
That plan being to suffer the single largest parliamentary humiliation in UK history, followed by resignation?
A cunning plan indeed.
May is outmanoeuvring everyone. She's a political genius.
And so selfless - sacrificing her own premiership to ensure we Remain.
She's not going anywhere, but I think Corbyn's days may be numbered.
Even though you may be proven right on us remaining, I would call that prediction one of the most remarkable I have ever seen, and requiring a political turnaround not seen since Charles II returned triumphant to London in 1660.
Does it say what position Labour would be supporting in a new referendum?
The tactical mistake everyone has made is to say that May has screwed up the negotiations. It's means they're trapped in the logic of saying we need to go back to renegotiate. Meanwhile May is executing her real plan.
That plan being to suffer the single largest parliamentary humiliation in UK history, followed by resignation?
A cunning plan indeed.
May is outmanoeuvring everyone. She's a political genius.
And so selfless - sacrificing her own premiership to ensure we Remain.
She's not going anywhere, but I think Corbyn's days may be numbered.
May might try for a 3 way question if she feels she has no choice but to have a referendum to pass her Deal, Deal v No Deal (thus also winning over Remainers behind it) then if Deal wins the first question Deal v Remain (thus winning over Leavers behind it) and Deal ends up the winner as the least worst option for Remainers and Leavers
Does it say what position Labour would be supporting in a new referendum?
The tactical mistake everyone has made is to say that May has screwed up the negotiations. It's means they're trapped in the logic of saying we need to go back to renegotiate. Meanwhile May is executing her real plan.
That plan being to suffer the single largest parliamentary humiliation in UK history, followed by resignation?
A cunning plan indeed.
The benefit in putting the deal to the HOC is it will draw individual mps out into the open
This is bigger than TM and if she resigns or loses a vnoc in her words 'nothing changes'
If I was a betting person I would see a referendum as more than likely but the bitterness will be eye watering with an uncertain outcome
Does it say what position Labour would be supporting in a new referendum?
The tactical mistake everyone has made is to say that May has screwed up the negotiations. It's means they're trapped in the logic of saying we need to go back to renegotiate. Meanwhile May is executing her real plan.
It may well work.
How!?! I know 'something will come up' is something I have criticised others for, and what I am about to say relies just as much on that kind of speculation, but there is no political will behind her deal, and while some moves have been improving in terms of the public view it is not as though there is a groundswell of support for it that will drastically change the political landscape here. I've never seen a political policy so dead before.
Does it say what position Labour would be supporting in a new referendum?
The tactical mistake everyone has made is to say that May has screwed up the negotiations. It's means they're trapped in the logic of saying we need to go back to renegotiate. Meanwhile May is executing her real plan.
That plan being to suffer the single largest parliamentary humiliation in UK history, followed by resignation?
A cunning plan indeed.
May is outmanoeuvring everyone. She's a political genius.
And so selfless - sacrificing her own premiership to ensure we Remain.
She's not going anywhere, but I think Corbyn's days may be numbered.
Even though you may be proven right on us remaining, I would call that prediction one of the most remarkable I have ever seen, and requiring a political turnaround not seen since Charles II returned triumphant to London in 1660.
I know the French national sport is rioting but the clips on the news look really bad. Is this something that will just pass or is macron government got a real crisis here? Is seems like the protests have spread beyond simply the fuel tax rise.
They have a real crisis. Article in the Speccie was saying that the arrests after last weekends riots were just normal people that have no political affiliation or previous records of demonstrating. The Far Left are organising but it is mass countryside side support. It is the poor left behind country dwellers versus the Parisian elite (who are viewed as corrupt). Jupiter is still trying to be an international statesman with big plans for Europe and having a go a Trump, whilst his people want domestic issues sorted.
I think we will see this across the western world. The rise of China, AI etc will be fine for the highly educated, but in the same way the working class got shafted out of automation, now all those white collar paper pushing jobs will revolutionised in the same way.
I am ultimately positive that new jobs sectors will emerge, but how long that takes and nobody wants to lose the job they have trained all their life and been a pretty cushy deal.
Does it say what position Labour would be supporting in a new referendum?
The tactical mistake everyone has made is to say that May has screwed up the negotiations. It's means they're trapped in the logic of saying we need to go back to renegotiate. Meanwhile May is executing her real plan.
That plan being to suffer the single largest parliamentary humiliation in UK history, followed by resignation?
A cunning plan indeed.
May is outmanoeuvring everyone. She's a political genius.
And so selfless - sacrificing her own premiership to ensure we Remain.
She's not going anywhere, but I think Corbyn's days may be numbered.
What's May's real plan in your opinion William?
A second referendum between the Brexit deal and Remain.
I know the French national sport is rioting but the clips on the news look really bad. Is this something that will just pass or is macron government got a real crisis here? Is seems like the protests have spread beyond simply the fuel tax rise.
I think with the rise of China and AI, I think we are going to increasingly see a lot of very angry people across Europe as they realise their job for life, long vacations, early retirement is going to disappear and not sure politicians have any idea how to deal with it.
Are the French, Italians etc ready to accept that the world is going to overtake them with the Far East willing to work harder and longer and increasingly smarter.
Yes, worrying. The French authorities can't even console themselves that it will all die down once the heatwave breaks, as we do in the UK.
Well if it was July, they could look forward to them all be buggering off on holiday for a month...
Does it say what position Labour would be supporting in a new referendum?
The tactical mistake everyone has made is to say that May has screwed up the negotiations. It's means they're trapped in the logic of saying we need to go back to renegotiate. Meanwhile May is executing her real plan.
That plan being to suffer the single largest parliamentary humiliation in UK history, followed by resignation?
A cunning plan indeed.
May is outmanoeuvring everyone. She's a political genius.
And so selfless - sacrificing her own premiership to ensure we Remain.
She's not going anywhere, but I think Corbyn's days may be numbered.
Even though you may be proven right on us remaining, I would call that prediction one of the most remarkable I have ever seen, and requiring a political turnaround not seen since Charles II returned triumphant to London in 1660.
Surely WSC in 1940 supersedes that?
My frame of reference tends a bit earlier than that. At least I didn't suggest as big a turnaround as the Romans after Cannae.
Does it say what position Labour would be supporting in a new referendum?
The tactical mistake everyone has made is to say that May has screwed up the negotiations. It's means they're trapped in the logic of saying we need to go back to renegotiate. Meanwhile May is executing her real plan.
That plan being to suffer the single largest parliamentary humiliation in UK history, followed by resignation?
A cunning plan indeed.
May is outmanoeuvring everyone. She's a political genius.
And so selfless - sacrificing her own premiership to ensure we Remain.
She's not going anywhere, but I think Corbyn's days may be numbered.
What's May's real plan in your opinion William?
A second referendum between the Brexit deal and Remain.
Which remain would win. Congratulations, you will have won.
Notwithstanding Mr Herdson's earlier piece, and the procedural difficulties still in play, I don't see how Remain can possibly screw it up from here. Remain Tories are in open revolt just like no dealers, Labour are inches away from pivoting to Remain officially or otherwise since in a referendum they won't back May's deal or no deal, the Tories still won't want a GE, and with neither main party able to articulate consistent support for the deal even before it is overwhelmingly rejected by parliament, Remain has such a good chance of winning now.
What a waste.
I'd still make Leave the favourites in the referendum.
I know the French national sport is rioting but the clips on the news look really bad. Is this something that will just pass or is macron government got a real crisis here? Is seems like the protests have spread beyond simply the fuel tax rise.
I think with the rise of China and AI, I think we are going to increasingly see a lot of very angry people across Europe as they realise their job for life, long vacations, early retirement is going to disappear and not sure politicians have any idea how to deal with it.
Are the French, Italians etc ready to accept that the world is going to overtake them with the Far East willing to work harder and longer and increasingly smarter.
The Far East is not even a majority of Asia let alone the world.
While China will likely lead the world in terms of GDP and close the gap or even overtake western nations in GDP per capita terms it is also not beyond the realms of possibility that as China grows its middle class, they too will want more vacations, a longer retirement etc.
AI opens up the prospect of more flexible working and a universal basic income, which some French politicians like Hamon are already advocating
Meanwhile, a new YouGov poll published on Sunday shows support for staying in the EU at the highest level recorded by the company since the 2016 referendum. The poll of 1,655 people conducted last week shows remaining in the EU now has a 10-point lead over leaving when people are asked whether or not they want to proceed with Brexit.
In the survey for the People’s Vote campaign, support for staying is now at 55% compared with 45% for leaving the EU once “don’t knows are excluded”. Separate surveys conducted in the four neighbouring London seats represented by Corbyn, shadow foreign secretary Emily Thornberry, shadow home secretary Diane Abbott and Starmer show overwhelming support, and suggest all four would lose votes to other parties if Labour eventually backed a Brexit deal.
While Theresa May, who was attending the G20 summit in Argentina on Saturday, insists she will win over sufficient MPs to get her Brexit deal through parliament, evidence emerged on Saturday night that Conservative activists overwhelmingly oppose the deal. A survey of Tory members by ConservativeHome found 72% of Tory members are against it while only 25% back it.
On Saturday the Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe urged May to do everything she could to avoid a no-deal Brexit, suggesting that investors from Japan need predictability and stability.
Obviously the reason for commissioning polling in the constituencies of Corbyn, Thornberry, Abbott and Starmer is to inflict greater pressure on them to come out and fight explicitly for Remain.
But are they really going to feel personal pressure over this? The Lib Dems and Greens have not exactly been surging up in the polls. I am sure the proportion of people who, on balance, would currently favour Remain is up versus the referendum period, but most remain-supporters are only fairly apathetically so. There is not some grand upswell of affectionate devotion towards the EU institutions. The massed populace do not seem to have switched their primary identification from "British" to "Pan-European". Few voters, let alone remainers, see things through the single-issue prism of Brexit alone. Frankly most people seem sick to the back teeth with the whole issue.
If Corbyn "lets Brexit happen", and the consequences in his constituency turn out to be apocalyptic, and voters there blame him personally for it and decide it's finally time for a Cablegasm, then I suppose it is not beyond all conception that his seat might be "at risk". But the particular way that chain of events would manifest in practice can hardly be reflected in a piece of purely hypothetical polling. I think "what would you do if?" polls are a waste of time and effort generally.
Notwithstanding Mr Herdson's earlier piece, and the procedural difficulties still in play, I don't see how Remain can possibly screw it up from here. Remain Tories are in open revolt just like no dealers, Labour are inches away from pivoting to Remain officially or otherwise since in a referendum they won't back May's deal or no deal, the Tories still won't want a GE, and with neither main party able to articulate consistent support for the deal even before it is overwhelmingly rejected by parliament, Remain has such a good chance of winning now.
What a waste.
I'd still make Leave the favourites in the referendum.
Hard to say. It is clear that a lot of remainers do not even see the possibility of defeat, since plenty demand the public have a say because the public has changed its mind, which rather gives the game away on the official reason, for a confirmatory vote (whichever way that might be).
I'd vote remain over no deal, but the smug assumption of the dishonestnamevote campaigners could yet blow up in their faces.
Does it say what position Labour would be supporting in a new referendum?
The tactical mistake everyone has made is to say that May has screwed up the negotiations. It's means they're trapped in the logic of saying we need to go back to renegotiate. Meanwhile May is executing her real plan.
That plan being to suffer the single largest parliamentary humiliation in UK history, followed by resignation?
A cunning plan indeed.
May is outmanoeuvring everyone. She's a political genius.
And so selfless - sacrificing her own premiership to ensure we Remain.
She's not going anywhere, but I think Corbyn's days may be numbered.
What's May's real plan in your opinion William?
A second referendum between the Brexit deal and Remain.
She may threaten (promise?) that in the debate - which would explain why she wanted the prime time slot in the first place - as a leaver lever - to force support for her deal, suggesting that if it falls that will be Plan B. I dont buy the conspiracy theory that she personally has a Remain vote as her objective, although much of ConHome would disagree.
Does it say what position Labour would be supporting in a new referendum?
The tactical mistake everyone has made is to say that May has screwed up the negotiations. It's means they're trapped in the logic of saying we need to go back to renegotiate. Meanwhile May is executing her real plan.
That plan being to suffer the single largest parliamentary humiliation in UK history, followed by resignation?
A cunning plan indeed.
May is outmanoeuvring everyone. She's a political genius.
And so selfless - sacrificing her own premiership to ensure we Remain.
She's not going anywhere, but I think Corbyn's days may be numbered.
What's May's real plan in your opinion William?
A second referendum between the Brexit deal and Remain.
Which remain would win. Congratulations, you will have won.
I know the French national sport is rioting but the clips on the news look really bad. Is this something that will just pass or is macron government got a real crisis here? Is seems like the protests have spread beyond simply the fuel tax rise.
I think with the rise of China and AI, I think we are going to increasingly see a lot of very angry people across Europe as they realise their job for life, long vacations, early retirement is going to disappear and not sure politicians have any idea how to deal with it.
Are the French, Italians etc ready to accept that the world is going to overtake them with the Far East willing to work harder and longer and increasingly smarter.
The Far East is not even a majority of Asia let alone the world.
While China will likely lead the world in terms of GDP and close the gap or even overtake western nations in GDP per capita terms it is also not beyond the realms of possibility that as China grows its middle class, they too will want more vacations, a longer retirement etc
I am sure they will, but the difference is when you have one party state they can much more closely control this. They are never going to agree to the generous welfare state that western countries have developed and politically can do nothing but tinker around the edges.
Also the no scruples to stealing IP is a massive advantage when IP is the most valuable part of most businesses in the future.
Does it say what position Labour would be supporting in a new referendum?
The tactical mistake everyone has made is to say that May has screwed up the negotiations. It's means they're trapped in the logic of saying we need to go back to renegotiate. Meanwhile May is executing her real plan.
That plan being to suffer the single largest parliamentary humiliation in UK history, followed by resignation?
A cunning plan indeed.
May is outmanoeuvring everyone. She's a political genius.
And so selfless - sacrificing her own premiership to ensure we Remain.
She's not going anywhere, but I think Corbyn's days may be numbered.
What's May's real plan in your opinion William?
A second referendum between the Brexit deal and Remain.
Which remain would win. Congratulations, you will have won.
"A group of City hedge fund managers were weighing up a legal challenge to force the BBC and ITV to allow Boris Johnson... to gatecrash a primetime television debate on the deal..."
WTF ??
No court in the land will entertain such a pointless case
Sitting PM has challenged LOTO to a one-on-one debate - there is nothing that can be done to force a change.
Does it say what position Labour would be supporting in a new referendum?
The tactical mistake everyone has made is to say that May has screwed up the negotiations. It's means they're trapped in the logic of saying we need to go back to renegotiate. Meanwhile May is executing her real plan.
That plan being to suffer the single largest parliamentary humiliation in UK history, followed by resignation?
A cunning plan indeed.
May is outmanoeuvring everyone. She's a political genius.
And so selfless - sacrificing her own premiership to ensure we Remain.
She's not going anywhere, but I think Corbyn's days may be numbered.
What's May's real plan in your opinion William?
A second referendum between the Brexit deal and Remain.
She may threaten (promise?) that in the debate - which would explain why she wanted the prime time slot in the first place - as a leaver lever - to force support for her deal, suggesting that if it falls that will be Plan B. I dont buy the conspiracy theory that she personally has a Remain vote as her objective, although much of ConHome would disagree.
Is a conspiracy of one still a conspiracy?
On your specific point about the debate, the arithmetic doesn't work for that. If the DUP vote against she can't guarantee a majority even if she convinces all her MPs.
Does it say what position Labour would be supporting in a new referendum?
The tactical mistake everyone has made is to say that May has screwed up the negotiations. It's means they're trapped in the logic of saying we need to go back to renegotiate. Meanwhile May is executing her real plan.
That plan being to suffer the single largest parliamentary humiliation in UK history, followed by resignation?
A cunning plan indeed.
May is outmanoeuvring everyone. She's a political genius.
And so selfless - sacrificing her own premiership to ensure we Remain.
She's not going anywhere, but I think Corbyn's days may be numbered.
What's May's real plan in your opinion William?
A second referendum between the Brexit deal and Remain.
No, I don't think so. More likely she'd press for one between her deal and no deal. Albeit she'd probably have to accept a three-way with Remain on the ballot too.
Does it say what position Labour would be supporting in a new referendum?
The tactical mistake everyone has made is to say that May has screwed up the negotiations. It's means they're trapped in the logic of saying we need to go back to renegotiate. Meanwhile May is executing her real plan.
That plan being to suffer the single largest parliamentary humiliation in UK history, followed by resignation?
A cunning plan indeed.
May is outmanoeuvring everyone. She's a political genius.
And so selfless - sacrificing her own premiership to ensure we Remain.
She's not going anywhere, but I think Corbyn's days may be numbered.
What's May's real plan in your opinion William?
A second referendum between the Brexit deal and Remain.
Which remain would win. Congratulations, you will have won.
On that question I agree. But how we get to it I have no idea.
A reporter on the BBC said that the amendments on the meaningful vote are not mandatory
He went on to say legislation has to be introduced into the HOC and HOL and passed to stop us falling out. No deal is default.
No doubt that is why ERG will do everything to stop anything changing that
It is a frightening thought that a group of ultra right politicians could have that effect on our Country
Notwithstanding Mr Herdson's earlier piece, and the procedural difficulties still in play, I don't see how Remain can possibly screw it up from here. Remain Tories are in open revolt just like no dealers, Labour are inches away from pivoting to Remain officially or otherwise since in a referendum they won't back May's deal or no deal, the Tories still won't want a GE, and with neither main party able to articulate consistent support for the deal even before it is overwhelmingly rejected by parliament, Remain has such a good chance of winning now.
What a waste.
I'd still make Leave the favourites in the referendum.
Hard to say. It is clear that a lot of remainers do not even see the possibility of defeat, since plenty demand the public have a say because the public has changed its mind, which rather gives the game away on the official reason, for a confirmatory vote (whichever way that might be).
I'd vote remain over no deal, but the smug assumption of the dishonestnamevote campaigners could yet blow up in their faces.
Why I think Leave would win by an even larger majority.
1) Leave voters will be super motivated
2) There'll be some reluctant remainers who think the 2016 referendum must be honoured.
3) For Remain to win it will need the demographic that seldom turns out in sufficient numbers to actually turn out. If they couldn't be arsed to turn out for Corbyn in 2017 then I doubt they'll turn out now.
Obviously the reason for commissioning polling in the constituencies of Corbyn, Thornberry, Abbott and Starmer is to inflict greater pressure on them to come out and fight explicitly for Remain.
But are they really going to feel personal pressure over this? The Lib Dems and Greens have not exactly been surging up in the polls. I am sure the proportion of people who, on balance, would currently favour Remain is up versus the referendum period, but most remain-supporters are only fairly apathetically so. There is not some grand upswell of affectionate devotion towards the EU institutions. The massed populace do not seem to have switched their primary identification from "British" to "Pan-European". Few voters, let alone remainers, see things through the single-issue prism of Brexit alone. Frankly most people seem sick to the back teeth with the whole issue.
If Corbyn "lets Brexit happen", and the consequences in his constituency turn out to be apocalyptic, and voters there blame him personally for it and decide it's finally time for a Cablegasm, then I suppose it is not beyond all conception that his seat might be "at risk". But the particular way that chain of events would manifest in practice can hardly be reflected in a piece of purely hypothetical polling. I think "what would you do if?" polls are a waste of time and effort generally.
Corbyn and co might switch, but I'd agree I doubt they'd feel that much personal pressure over it. But if Remain looks like it will win, and given if there is a referendum most of his MPs and party members will be backing Remain, he might as well get out in front of it and just back Remain already.
What would happen if Remain won though? There's enough Tories who want it, or the ones who will do anything if the party says so, to with the other parties see it happen (assuming it is possible to revoke A50), but unless the authorising act made enacting the outcome law there's no way the Tories could stay together to put it through.
So I assume parliament votes to withdraw and then hold a GE, so Labour can win and take over properly? (yes, yes, backlash in some northern seats and all that. But against a Tory party in such a mess? Not the mess like now where they still somehow have leads in some polls, but 'no idea what our policy is' mess)
"A group of City hedge fund managers were weighing up a legal challenge to force the BBC and ITV to allow Boris Johnson... to gatecrash a primetime television debate on the deal..."
WTF ??
No court in the land will entertain such a pointless case
Sitting PM has challenged LOTO to a one-on-one debate - there is nothing that can be done to force a change.
I presume jezza is still sticking to his guns that he doesn’t want to miss I’m a celeb.
Why don't Labour and the Tory Remainers press for an amendment to the MV to the effect that "The WA is only approved if it wins a national referendum of 'this deal' versus 'no deal'."?
Notwithstanding Mr Herdson's earlier piece, and the procedural difficulties still in play, I don't see how Remain can possibly screw it up from here. Remain Tories are in open revolt just like no dealers, Labour are inches away from pivoting to Remain officially or otherwise since in a referendum they won't back May's deal or no deal, the Tories still won't want a GE, and with neither main party able to articulate consistent support for the deal even before it is overwhelmingly rejected by parliament, Remain has such a good chance of winning now.
What a waste.
I'd still make Leave the favourites in the referendum.
Hard to say. It is clear that a lot of remainers do not even see the possibility of defeat, since plenty demand the public have a say because the public has changed its mind, which rather gives the game away on the official reason, for a confirmatory vote (whichever way that might be).
I'd vote remain over no deal, but the smug assumption of the dishonestnamevote campaigners could yet blow up in their faces.
Why I think Leave would win by an even larger majority.
1) Leave voters will be super motivated
2) There'll be some reluctant remainers who think the 2016 referendum must be honoured.
3) For Remain to win it will need the demographic that seldom turns out in sufficient numbers to actually turn out. If they couldn't be arsed to turn out for Corbyn in 2017 then I doubt they'll turn out now.
Are you talking about Remain versus No Deal or Remain versus May's Deal?
Notwithstanding Mr Herdson's earlier piece, and the procedural difficulties still in play, I don't see how Remain can possibly screw it up from here. Remain Tories are in open revolt just like no dealers, Labour are inches away from pivoting to Remain officially or otherwise since in a referendum they won't back May's deal or no deal, the Tories still won't want a GE, and with neither main party able to articulate consistent support for the deal even before it is overwhelmingly rejected by parliament, Remain has such a good chance of winning now.
What a waste.
I'd still make Leave the favourites in the referendum.
Hard to say. It is clear that a lot of remainers do not even see the possibility of defeat, since plenty demand the public have a say because the public has changed its mind, which rather gives the game away on the official reason, for a confirmatory vote (whichever way that might be).
I'd vote remain over no deal, but the smug assumption of the dishonestnamevote campaigners could yet blow up in their faces.
Why I think Leave would win by an even larger majority.
1) Leave voters will be super motivated
2) There'll be some reluctant remainers who think the 2016 referendum must be honoured.
3) For Remain to win it will need the demographic that seldom turns out in sufficient numbers to actually turn out. If they couldn't be arsed to turn out for Corbyn in 2017 then I doubt they'll turn out now.
It's not implausible, but I do take a different view.
1) Many will, but some like me will not. If I didn't regard it as a duty to vote I wouldn't bother, and even then it's hard. I know a guy who voted for the first time ever in 2016, at 59, and isn't going to next time. And that leads to 2
2) Yes, but there will be some who switch the other way. If the polls are right, quite a few.
3) The big risk, sure, but anecdotally the most hardcore remainers do not seem to have diminished their passion at all in 2 years, and that includes plenty of the young. They get to kick the government at the same time as well. The media and parties are in a frenzy about how vital this will be. I think enough will turn out given the other 2 points.
Obviously that would not be the end of our troubles. And I still say the arrogance of the remainvote campaigners (be honest!) could lead them to complacency, but I think they'll get it over the line, and MPs will be much more pliant on seeing it happen.
Why don't Labour and the Tory Remainers press for an amendment to the MV to the effect that "The WA is only approved if it wins a national referendum of 'this deal' versus 'no deal'."?
Notwithstanding Mr Herdson's earlier piece, and the procedural difficulties still in play, I don't see how Remain can possibly screw it up from here. Remain Tories are in open revolt just like no dealers, Labour are inches away from pivoting to Remain officially or otherwise since in a referendum they won't back May's deal or no deal, the Tories still won't want a GE, and with neither main party able to articulate consistent support for the deal even before it is overwhelmingly rejected by parliament, Remain has such a good chance of winning now.
What a waste.
I'd still make Leave the favourites in the referendum.
Hard to say. It is clear that a lot of remainers do not even see the possibility of defeat, since plenty demand the public have a say because the public has changed its mind, which rather gives the game away on the official reason, for a confirmatory vote (whichever way that might be).
I'd vote remain over no deal, but the smug assumption of the dishonestnamevote campaigners could yet blow up in their faces.
Why I think Leave would win by an even larger majority.
1) Leave voters will be super motivated
2) There'll be some reluctant remainers who think the 2016 referendum must be honoured.
3) For Remain to win it will need the demographic that seldom turns out in sufficient numbers to actually turn out. If they couldn't be arsed to turn out for Corbyn in 2017 then I doubt they'll turn out now.
Are you talking about Remain versus No Deal or Remain versus May's Deal?
Does it say what position Labour would be supporting in a new referendum?
The tactical mistake everyone has made is to say that May has screwed up the negotiations. It's means they're trapped in the logic of saying we need to go back to renegotiate. Meanwhile May is executing her real plan.
That plan being to suffer the single largest parliamentary humiliation in UK history, followed by resignation?
A cunning plan indeed.
May is outmanoeuvring everyone. She's a political genius.
And so selfless - sacrificing her own premiership to ensure we Remain.
She's not going anywhere, but I think Corbyn's days may be numbered.
What's May's real plan in your opinion William?
A second referendum between the Brexit deal and Remain.
No, I don't think so. More likely she'd press for one between her deal and no deal. Albeit she'd probably have to accept a three-way with Remain on the ballot too.
Notwithstanding Mr Herdson's earlier piece, and the procedural difficulties still in play, I don't see how Remain can possibly screw it up from here. Remain Tories are in open revolt just like no dealers, Labour are inches away from pivoting to Remain officially or otherwise since in a referendum they won't back May's deal or no deal, the Tories still won't want a GE, and with neither main party able to articulate consistent support for the deal even before it is overwhelmingly rejected by parliament, Remain has such a good chance of winning now.
What a waste.
I'd still make Leave the favourites in the referendum.
Hard to say. It is clear that a lot of remainers do not even see the possibility of defeat, since plenty demand the public have a say because the public has changed its mind, which rather gives the game away on the official reason, for a confirmatory vote (whichever way that might be).
I'd vote remain over no deal, but the smug assumption of the dishonestnamevote campaigners could yet blow up in their faces.
Why I think Leave would win by an even larger majority.
1) Leave voters will be super motivated
2) There'll be some reluctant remainers who think the 2016 referendum must be honoured.
3) For Remain to win it will need the demographic that seldom turns out in sufficient numbers to actually turn out. If they couldn't be arsed to turn out for Corbyn in 2017 then I doubt they'll turn out now.
Are you talking about Remain versus No Deal or Remain versus May's Deal?
Remain vs No Deal.
How do you think a Remain v No Deal referendum comes about? Who will be the PM?
Notwithstanding Mr Herdson's earlier piece, and the procedural difficulties still in play, I don't see how Remain can possibly screw it up from here. Remain Tories are in open revolt just like no dealers, Labour are inches away from pivoting to Remain officially or otherwise since in a referendum they won't back May's deal or no deal, the Tories still won't want a GE, and with neither main party able to articulate consistent support for the deal even before it is overwhelmingly rejected by parliament, Remain has such a good chance of winning now.
What a waste.
I'd still make Leave the favourites in the referendum.
Hard to say. It is clear that a lot of remainers do not even see the possibility of defeat, since plenty demand the public have a say because the public has changed its mind, which rather gives the game away on the official reason, for a confirmatory vote (whichever way that might be).
I'd vote remain over no deal, but the smug assumption of the dishonestnamevote campaigners could yet blow up in their faces.
Why I think Leave would win by an even larger majority.
1) Leave voters will be super motivated
2) There'll be some reluctant remainers who think the 2016 referendum must be honoured.
3) For Remain to win it will need the demographic that seldom turns out in sufficient numbers to actually turn out. If they couldn't be arsed to turn out for Corbyn in 2017 then I doubt they'll turn out now.
Are you talking about Remain versus No Deal or Remain versus May's Deal?
Remain vs No Deal.
How do you think a Remain v No Deal referendum comes about? Who will be the PM?
Notwithstanding Mr Herdson's earlier piece, and the procedural difficulties still in play, I don't see how Remain can possibly screw it up from here. Remain Tories are in open revolt just like no dealers, Labour are inches away from pivoting to Remain officially or otherwise since in a referendum they won't back May's deal or no deal, the Tories still won't want a GE, and with neither main party able to articulate consistent support for the deal even before it is overwhelmingly rejected by parliament, Remain has such a good chance of winning now.
What a waste.
I'd still make Leave the favourites in the referendum.
Hard to say. It is clear that a lot of remainers do not even see the possibility of defeat, since plenty demand the public have a say because the public has changed its mind, which rather gives the game away on the official reason, for a confirmatory vote (whichever way that might be).
I'd vote remain over no deal, but the smug assumption of the dishonestnamevote campaigners could yet blow up in their faces.
Why I think Leave would win by an even larger majority.
1) Leave voters will be super motivated
2) There'll be some reluctant remainers who think the 2016 referendum must be honoured.
3) For Remain to win it will need the demographic that seldom turns out in sufficient numbers to actually turn out. If they couldn't be arsed to turn out for Corbyn in 2017 then I doubt they'll turn out now.
Are you talking about Remain versus No Deal or Remain versus May's Deal?
Remain vs No Deal.
How do you think a Remain v No Deal referendum comes about? Who will be the PM?
Not sure, I think we'll hit a critical mass the moment MPs realise that they cannot legislate against no deal, that the default is we leave without a deal on March 29th.
I think we will see this across the western world. The rise of China, AI etc will be fine for the highly educated, but in the same way the working class got shafted out of automation, now all those white collar paper pushing jobs will revolutionised in the same way.
I am ultimately positive that new jobs sectors will emerge, but how long that takes and nobody wants to lose the job they have trained all their life and been a pretty cushy deal.
The flip side of this is that globalisation, automation etc means the basic material necessities of life have never been, in real terms, more affordable (in terms of hours of work at typical pay rates you'd need to turn in to purchase them) - with the exception of residential property, where we hit the problem of a finite supply of land. This means that considerable changes to the conventional Western lifestyle are possible, even if most don't desire to pursue them.
In principle, any work I do these days is voluntary rather than financially-enforced because if I wanted to I could give up tomorrow and still live quite comfortably on my investments - but then I am also relatively highly skilled, have had periods of very intense work, and I maintained a very high savings rate that a lot of people would have found extremely uncomfortable. I know I'm not alone in pursuing that but if a lot of us did it, we'd screw up the consumer economy. In fact if I'd had more information about how my life was going to turn out, I might have restructured it so I was working something like 15-30 hour weeks (perhaps starting higher and tapering off) and just prolong the time I had to work. (Turns out that retiring early is actually a pretty daunting prospect - I mean, what would you do with yourself? - so the fact I could in principle is really more about "just in case" security than out of wanting the choice.)
A rather head-in-the-clouds academic suggested to me this week that the way forward for Western societies is for people to cut down their hours of work, reduce their levels of stress and burn-out, and in their tighter financial circumstances, quit consuming so much. His idea is that we'd be healthier, greener and overall quite a lot happier. We would also be poorer, which is why I'm not convinced his big idea will actually catch on.
Notwithstanding Mr Herdson's earlier piece, and the procedural difficulties still in play, I don't see how Remain can possibly screw it up from here. Remain Tories are in open revolt just like no dealers, Labour are inches away from pivoting to Remain officially or otherwise since in a referendum they won't back May's deal or no deal, the Tories still won't want a GE, and with neither main party able to articulate consistent support for the deal even before it is overwhelmingly rejected by parliament, Remain has such a good chance of winning now.
What a waste.
I'd still make Leave the favourites in the referendum.
Hard to say. It is clear that a lot of remainers do not even see the possibility of defeat, since plenty demand the public have a say because the public has changed its mind, which rather gives the game away on the official reason, for a confirmatory vote (whichever way that might be).
I'd vote remain over no deal, but the smug assumption of the dishonestnamevote campaigners could yet blow up in their faces.
Why I think Leave would win by an even larger majority.
1) Leave voters will be super motivated
2) There'll be some reluctant remainers who think the 2016 referendum must be honoured.
3) For Remain to win it will need the demographic that seldom turns out in sufficient numbers to actually turn out. If they couldn't be arsed to turn out for Corbyn in 2017 then I doubt they'll turn out now.
Are you talking about Remain versus No Deal or Remain versus May's Deal?
Remain vs No Deal.
Not going to happen. May's Deal will be on any 2nd referendum.
Notwithstanding Mr Herdson's earlier piece, and the procedural difficulties still in play, I don't see how Remain can possibly screw it up from here. Remain Tories are in open revolt just like no dealers, Labour are inches away from pivoting to Remain officially or otherwise since in a referendum they won't back May's deal or no deal, the Tories still won't want a GE, and with neither main party able to articulate consistent support for the deal even before it is overwhelmingly rejected by parliament, Remain has such a good chance of winning now.
What a waste.
I'd still make Leave the favourites in the referendum.
Hard to say. It is clear that a lot of remainers do not even see the possibility of defeat, since plenty demand the public have a say because the public has changed its mind, which rather gives the game away on the official reason, for a confirmatory vote (whichever way that might be).
I'd vote remain over no deal, but the smug assumption of the dishonestnamevote campaigners could yet blow up in their faces.
Why I think Leave would win by an even larger majority.
1) Leave voters will be super motivated
2) There'll be some reluctant remainers who think the 2016 referendum must be honoured.
3) For Remain to win it will need the demographic that seldom turns out in sufficient numbers to actually turn out. If they couldn't be arsed to turn out for Corbyn in 2017 then I doubt they'll turn out now.
I voted Remain but would switch to vote for Leave with the Deal if that was an option.
I would still vote for Remain again over Leave with No Deal though.
Does it say what position Labour would be supporting in a new referendum?
The tactical mistake everyone has made is to say that May has screwed up the negotiations. It's means they're trapped in the logic of saying we need to go back to renegotiate. Meanwhile May is executing her real plan.
That plan being to suffer the single largest parliamentary humiliation in UK history, followed by resignation?
A cunning plan indeed.
May is outmanoeuvring everyone. She's a political genius.
Does it say what position Labour would be supporting in a new referendum?
The tactical mistake everyone has made is to say that May has screwed up the negotiations. It's means they're trapped in the logic of saying we need to go back to renegotiate. Meanwhile May is executing her real plan.
That plan being to suffer the single largest parliamentary humiliation in UK history, followed by resignation?
A cunning plan indeed.
May is outmanoeuvring everyone. She's a political genius.
And so selfless - sacrificing her own premiership to ensure we Remain.
She's not going anywhere, but I think Corbyn's days may be numbered.
What's May's real plan in your opinion William?
A second referendum between the Brexit deal and Remain.
Which remain would win. Congratulations, you will have won.
On that question I agree. But how we get to it I have no idea.
A reporter on the BBC said that the amendments on the meaningful vote are not mandatory
He went on to say legislation has to be introduced into the HOC and HOL and passed to stop us falling out. No deal is default.
No doubt that is why ERG will do everything to stop anything changing that
It is a frightening thought that a group of ultra right politicians could have that effect on our Country
Notwithstanding Mr Herdson's earlier piece, and the procedural difficulties still in play, I don't see how Remain can possibly screw it up from here. Remain Tories are in open revolt just like no dealers, Labour are inches away from pivoting to Remain officially or otherwise since in a referendum they won't back May's deal or no deal, the Tories still won't want a GE, and with neither main party able to articulate consistent support for the deal even before it is overwhelmingly rejected by parliament, Remain has such a good chance of winning now.
What a waste.
I'd still make Leave the favourites in the referendum.
Hard to say. It is clear that a lot of remainers do not even see the possibility of defeat, since plenty demand the public have a say because the public has changed its mind, which rather gives the game away on the official reason, for a confirmatory vote (whichever way that might be).
I'd vote remain over no deal, but the smug assumption of the dishonestnamevote campaigners could yet blow up in their faces.
Why I think Leave would win by an even larger majority.
1) Leave voters will be super motivated
2) There'll be some reluctant remainers who think the 2016 referendum must be honoured.
3) For Remain to win it will need the demographic that seldom turns out in sufficient numbers to actually turn out. If they couldn't be arsed to turn out for Corbyn in 2017 then I doubt they'll turn out now.
Yes, I think a Remain win on a re-run is almost an impossibility. Apart from anything else, the shrill gloating from the Leavers that would inevitably ensue would be unbearable. Let's just have No Deal, economic collapse and universal misery. I want to rub their noses in it and don't want any distractions, excuses or let-offs.
I know the French national sport is rioting but the clips on the news look really bad. Is this something that will just pass or is macron government got a real crisis here? Is seems like the protests have spread beyond simply the fuel tax rise.
I think with the rise of China and AI, I think we are going to increasingly see a lot of very angry people across Europe as they realise their job for life, long vacations, early retirement is going to disappear and not sure politicians have any idea how to deal with it.
Are the French, Italians etc ready to accept that the world is going to overtake them with the Far East willing to work harder and longer and increasingly smarter.
The Far East is not even a majority of Asia let alone the world.
While China will likely lead the world in terms of GDP and close the gap or even overtake western nations in GDP per capita terms it is also not beyond the realms of possibility that as China grows its middle class, they too will want more vacations, a longer retirement etc
I am sure they will, but the difference is when you have one party state they can much more closely control this. They are never going to agree to the generous welfare state that western countries have developed and politically can do nothing but tinker around the edges.
Also the no scruples to stealing IP is a massive advantage when IP is the most valuable part of most businesses in the future.
That depends if a more politically motivated Chinese middle class start to rise within the party or even start to challenge it on the streets themselves. As shown in the student protests in Tiananmen Square in Beijing in 1989 the Chinese state has not been completely immune to street protests itself.
IP protection is certainly an issue national security agencies need to look more into
Does it say what position Labour would be supporting in a new referendum?
The tactical mistake everyone has made is to say that May has screwed up the negotiations. It's means they're trapp her real plan.
That plan being to suffer the single largest parliamentary humiliation in UK history, followed by resignation?
A cunning plan indeed.
May is outmanoeuvring everyone. She's a political genius.
And so selfless - sacrificing her own premiership to ensure we Remain.
She's not going anywhere, but I think Corbyn's days may be numbered.
What's May's real plan in your opinion William?
A second referendum between the Brexit deal and Remain.
No, I don't think so. More likely she'd press for one between her deal and no deal. Albeit she'd probably have to accept a three-way with Remain on the ballot too.
On that question I agree. But how we get to it I have no idea.
A reporter on the BBC said that the amendments on the meaningful vote are not mandatory
He went on to say legislation has to be introduced into the HOC and HOL and passed to stop us falling out. No deal is default.
No doubt that is why ERG will do everything to stop anything changing that
It is a frightening thought that a group of ultra right politicians could have that effect on our Country
They have to be stopped and I do not care how
Legislation would be needed. Once Labour commit to a second referendum there are enough votes to see it through easily. The difficulty is who proposes it and what wording could they propose which would get through? May won't be proposing it even if she wants to, and I do not buy for a second her deal gets included as an option.
The biggest fantasies going on at the moment are that a substantial renegotiation is no problem, and that once May goes the Tories could unite behind any position (and this leader) sufficiently strongly and quickly to take the lead on any action.
And yet a GE just causes massive unneeded delays to the whole process (if we are to get a delay, and that is possible, someone needs to be in place to ask for it), so how do we get from A to B. Months of speculating and still the path looks unclear.
Does it say what position Labour would be supporting in a new referendum?
The tactical mistake everyone has made is to say that May has screwed up the negotiations. It's means they're trapped in the logic of saying we need to go back to renegotiate. Meanwhile May is executing her real plan.
That plan being to suffer the single largest parliamentary humiliation in UK history, followed by resignation?
A cunning plan indeed.
May is outmanoeuvring everyone. She's a political genius.
And so selfless - sacrificing her own premiership to ensure we Remain.
She's not going anywhere, but I think Corbyn's days may be numbered.
What's May's real plan in your opinion William?
A second referendum between the Brexit deal and Remain.
No, I don't think so. More likely she'd press for one between her deal and no deal. Albeit she'd probably have to accept a three-way with Remain on the ballot too.
That would split the vote, no doubt intentionally
Any three-way referendum would clearly have to have an AV method. It couldn't be FPTP with a winner gaining as little as 35% of the vote. That would deal with the 'split the vote issue'.
I'd except No Deal to be eliminated then May's Deal to win over Remain... Which (even as a Reaminer) I can see is a sound reflection of the original 52/48 split.
Notwithstanding Mr Herdson's earlier piece, and the procedural difficulties still in play, I don't see how Remain can possibly screw it up from here. Remain Tories are in open revolt just like no dealers, Labour are inches away from pivoting to Remain officially or otherwise since in a referendum they won't back May's deal or no deal, the Tories still won't want a GE, and with neither main party able to articulate consistent support for the deal even before it is overwhelmingly rejected by parliament, Remain has such a good chance of winning now.
What a waste.
I'd still make Leave the favourites in the referendum.
Hard to say. It is clear that a lot of remainers do not even see the possibility of defeat, since plenty demand the public have a say because the public has changed its mind, which rather gives the game away on the official reason, for a confirmatory vote (whichever way that might be).
I'd vote remain over no deal, but the smug assumption of the dishonestnamevote campaigners could yet blow up in their faces.
Why I think Leave would win by an even larger majority.
1) Leave voters will be super motivated
2) There'll be some reluctant remainers who think the 2016 referendum must be honoured.
3) For Remain to win it will need the demographic that seldom turns out in sufficient numbers to actually turn out. If they couldn't be arsed to turn out for Corbyn in 2017 then I doubt they'll turn out now.
Are you talking about Remain versus No Deal or Remain versus May's Deal?
Remain vs No Deal.
Not going to happen. May's Deal will be on any 2nd referendum.
Care to bet on that? It would be a farce for it to be included.
Notwithstanding Mr Herdson's earlier piece, and the procedural difficulties still in play, I don't see how Remain can possibly screw it up from here. Remain Tories are in open revolt just like no dealers, Labour are inches away from pivoting to Remain officially or otherwise since in a referendum they won't back May's deal or no deal, the Tories still won't want a GE, and with neither main party able to articulate consistent support for the deal even before it is overwhelmingly rejected by parliament, Remain has such a good chance of winning now.
What a waste.
I'd still make Leave the favourites in the referendum.
Hard to say. It is clear that a lot of remainers do not even see the possibility of defeat, since plenty demand the public have a say because the public has changed its mind, which rather gives the game away on the official reason, for a confirmatory vote (whichever way that might be).
I'd vote remain over no deal, but the smug assumption of the dishonestnamevote campaigners could yet blow up in their faces.
You're an interesting albeit not representative example of roughly on-the-fence voters who a binary referendum ultimately pushes off the fence, however uncomfortable that is for you.
I suspect you'd be pretty torn in a "May's Deal vs Remain" referendum.
Do you think the way you voted in a "No Deal vs Remain" referendum would be affected by whether you felt the poll had been "set up" or "rigged" to deliberately push the oh-so-naughty-last-time public into holding their noses and voting for Remain, versus if you thought that the referendum question had arisen essentially "naturally" in the circumstances?
I think we will see this across the western world. The rise of China, AI etc will be fine for the highly educated, but in the same way the working class got shafted out of automation, now all those white collar paper pushing jobs will revolutionised in the same way.
I am ultimately positive that new jobs sectors will emerge, but how long that takes and nobody wants to lose the job they have trained all their life and been a pretty cushy deal.
The flip side of this is that globalisation, automation etc means the basic material necessities of life have never been, in real terms, more affordable (in terms of hours of work at typical pay rates you'd need to turn in to purchase them) - with the exception of residential property, where we hit the problem of a finite supply of land. This means that considerable changes to the conventional Western lifestyle are possible, even if most don't desire to pursue them.
In principle, any work I do these days is voluntary rather than financially-enforced because if I wanted to I could give up tomorrow and still live quite comfortably on my investments - but then I am also relatively highly skilled, have had periods of very intense work, and I maintained a very high savings rate that a lot of people would have found extremely uncomfortable. I know I'm not alone in pursuing that but if a lot of us did it, we'd screw up the consumer economy. In fact if I'd had more information about how my life was going to turn out, I might have restructured it so I was working something like 15-30 hour weeks (perhaps starting higher and tapering off) and just prolong the time I had to work. (Turns out that retiring early is actually a pretty daunting prospect - I mean, what would you do with yourself? - so the fact I could in principle is really more about "just in case" security than out of wanting the choice.)
A rather head-in-the-clouds academic suggested to me this week that the way forward for Western societies is for people to cut down their hours of work, reduce their levels of stress and burn-out, and in their tighter financial circumstances, quit consuming so much. His idea is that we'd be healthier, greener and overall quite a lot happier. We would also be poorer, which is why I'm not convinced his big idea will actually catch on.
Your final paragraph sounds like a bloody good idea. I would suggest that we would be less wealthy rather than poorer, and in non - financial terms considerably richer.
Does it say what position Labour would be supporting in a new referendum?
The tactical mistake everyone has made is to say that May has screwed up the negotiations. It's means they're trapped in the logic of saying we need to go back to renegotiate. Meanwhile May is executing her real plan.
That plan being to suffer the single largest parliamentary humiliation in UK history, followed by resignation?
A cunning plan indeed.
May is outmanoeuvring everyone. She's a political genius.
We saw that with the general election she called.
Truly a genius .......
That was always part of her master plan: lose the majority.
It's the only explanation for that Manifesto, that campaign.
Does it say what position Labour would be supporting in a new referendum?
The tactical mistake everyone has made is to say that May has screwed up the negotiations. It's means they're trapped in the logic of saying we need to go back to renegotiate. Meanwhile May is executing her real plan.
That plan being to suffer the single largest parliamentary humiliation in UK history, followed by resignation?
A cunning plan indeed.
May is outmanoeuvring everyone. She's a political genius.
And so selfless - sacrificing her own premiership to ensure we Remain.
She's not going anywhere, but I think Corbyn's days may be numbered.
What's May's real plan in your opinion William?
A second referendum between the Brexit deal and Remain.
Which remain would win. Congratulations, you will have won.
On that question I agree. But how we get to it I have no idea.
A reporter on the BBC said that the amendments on the meaningful vote are not mandatory
He went on to say legislation has to be introduced into the HOC and HOL and passed to stop us falling out. No deal is default.
No doubt that is why ERG will do everything to stop anything changing that
It is a frightening thought that a group of ultra right politicians could have that effect on our Country
They have to be stopped and I do not care how
"Who will rid me of this turbulent priest?"
The economic and social fabric of my Country overrides extreme views threatening my children and grandchildrens future, jobs and our union
Notwithstanding Mr Herdson's earlier piece, and the procedural difficulties still in play, I don't see how Remain can possibly screw it up from here. Remain Tories are in open revolt just like no dealers, Labour are inches away from pivoting to Remain officially or otherwise since in a referendum they won't back May's deal or no deal, the Tories still won't want a GE, and with neither main party able to articulate consistent support for the deal even before it is overwhelmingly rejected by parliament, Remain has such a good chance of winning now.
What a waste.
I'd still make Leave the favourites in the referendum.
Hard to say. It is clear that a lot of remainers do not even see the possibility of defeat, since plenty demand the public have a say because the public has changed its mind, which rather gives the game away on the official reason, for a confirmatory vote (whichever way that might be).
I'd vote remain over no deal, but the smug assumption of the dishonestnamevote campaigners could yet blow up in their faces.
Why I think Leave would win by an even larger majority.
1) Leave voters will be super motivated
2) There'll be some reluctant remainers who think the 2016 referendum must be honoured.
3) For Remain to win it will need the demographic that seldom turns out in sufficient numbers to actually turn out. If they couldn't be arsed to turn out for Corbyn in 2017 then I doubt they'll turn out now.
I voted Remain but would switch to vote for Leave with the Deal if that was an option.
I would still vote for Remain again over Leave with No Deal though.
It's not implausible, but I do take a different view.
1) Many will, but some like me will not. If I didn't regard it as a duty to vote I wouldn't bother, and even then it's hard. I know a guy who voted for the first time ever in 2016, at 59, and isn't going to next time. And that leads to 2
2) Yes, but there will be some who switch the other way. If the polls are right, quite a few.
3) The big risk, sure, but anecdotally the most hardcore remainers do not seem to have diminished their passion at all in 2 years, and that includes plenty of the young. They get to kick the government at the same time as well. The media and parties are in a frenzy about how vital this will be. I think enough will turn out given the other 2 points.
Obviously that would not be the end of our troubles. And I still say the arrogance of the remainvote campaigners (be honest!) could lead them to complacency, but I think they'll get it over the line, and MPs will be much more pliant on seeing it happen.
And the other point to remember is that turnout of young voters in 2016, whilst higher than in previous votes, was still below the level of older people. If there is a rerun there will be huge, and I think successful, efforts to get more young people on the register and make sure they vote. This will make a remain victory more likely.
May is outmanoeuvring everyone. She's a political genius.
And so selfless - sacrificing her own premiership to ensure we Remain.
She's not going anywhere, but I think Corbyn's days may be numbered.
What's May's real plan in your opinion William?
A second referendum between the Brexit deal and Remain.
No, I don't think so. More likely she'd press for one between her deal and no deal. Albeit she'd probably have to accept a three-way with Remain on the ballot too.
On that question I agree. But how we get to it I have no idea.
A reporter on the BBC said that the amendments on the meaningful vote are not mandatory
He went on to say legislation has to be introduced into the HOC and HOL and passed to stop us falling out. No deal is default.
No doubt that is why ERG will do everything to stop anything changing that
It is a frightening thought that a group of ultra right politicians could have that effect on our Country
They have to be stopped and I do not care how
Legislation would be needed. Once Labour commit to a second referendum there are enough votes to see it through easily. The difficulty is who proposes it and what wording could they propose which would get through? May won't be proposing it even if she wants to, and I do not buy for a second her deal gets included as an option.
The biggest fantasies going on at the moment are that a substantial renegotiation is no problem, and that once May goes the Tories could unite behind any position (and this leader) sufficiently strongly and quickly to take the lead on any action.
And yet a GE just causes massive unneeded delays to the whole process (if we are to get a delay, and that is possible, someone needs to be in place to ask for it), so how do we get from A to B. Months of speculating and still the path looks unclear.
I agree with most of this post... but I don't see why May cannot survive a loss of the MV. There is only one negotiated deal available for the foreseeable - it would be crazy for that not to be on a referendum ballot.
Notwithstanding Mr Herdson's earlier piece, and the procedural difficulties still in play, I don't see how Remain can possibly screw it up from here. Remain Tories are in open revolt just like no dealers, Labour are inches away from pivoting to Remain officially or otherwise since in a referendum they won't back May's deal or no deal, the Tories still won't want a GE, and with neither main party able to articulate consistent support for the deal even before it is overwhelmingly rejected by parliament, Remain has such a good chance of winning now.
What a waste.
I'd still make Leave the favourites in the referendum.
Hard to say. It is clear that a lot of remainers do not even see the possibility of defeat, since plenty demand the public have a say because the public has changed its mind, which rather gives the game away on the official reason, for a confirmatory vote (whichever way that might be).
I'd vote remain over no deal, but the smug assumption of the dishonestnamevote campaigners could yet blow up in their faces.
Why I think Leave would win by an even larger majority.
1) Leave voters will be super motivated
2) There'll be some reluctant remainers who think the 2016 referendum must be honoured.
3) For Remain to win it will need the demographic that seldom turns out in sufficient numbers to actually turn out. If they couldn't be arsed to turn out for Corbyn in 2017 then I doubt they'll turn out now.
Are you talking about Remain versus No Deal or Remain versus May's Deal?
Remain vs No Deal.
Not going to happen. May's Deal will be on any 2nd referendum.
May would ensure her Deal is on the ballot yes and as Deltapoll showed head to head the Deal can beat both No Deal and Remain
Notwithstanding Mr Herdson's earlier piece, and the procedural difficulties still in play, I don't see how Remain can possibly screw it up from here. Remain Tories are in open revolt just like no dealers, Labour are inches away from pivoting to Remain officially or otherwise since in a referendum they won't back May's deal or no deal, the Tories still won't want a GE, and with neither main party able to articulate consistent support for the deal even before it is overwhelmingly rejected by parliament, Remain has such a good chance of winning now.
What a waste.
I'd still make Leave the favourites in the referendum.
Hard to say. It is clear that a lot of remainers do not even see the possibility of defeat, since plenty demand the public have a say because the public has changed its mind, which rather gives the game away on the official reason, for a confirmatory vote (whichever way that might be).
I'd vote remain over no deal, but the smug assumption of the dishonestnamevote campaigners could yet blow up in their faces.
You're an interesting albeit not representative example of roughly on-the-fence voters who a binary referendum ultimately pushes off the fence, however uncomfortable that is for you.
I suspect you'd be pretty torn in a "May's Deal vs Remain" referendum.
Do you think the way you voted in a "No Deal vs Remain" referendum would be affected by whether you felt the poll had been "set up" or "rigged" to deliberately push the oh-so-naughty-last-time public into holding their noses and voting for Remain, versus if you thought that the referendum question had arisen essentially "naturally" in the circumstances?
I'd be tempted by remain. Despite months and months of backing leave online I still hesitated for a good 40 seconds in the polling booth. Sad as it is to say, without the embarrassment (even anonymously) of having to lie online about having followed through on my words, I'd probably have voted remain in the end.
But I don't think my view in a referendum would be affected by if I felt it had been set up to deliberately lead us to this path. You have to answer the question before you, however it got to you. It would, I am sure, impact who I considered voting for in a GE. And admittedly, for me, no deal starts at an inherent disadvantage.
I'd still make Leave the favourites in the referendum.
I'd vote remain over no deal, but the smug assumption of the dishonestnamevote campaigners could yet blow up in their faces.
Why I think Leave would win by an even larger majority.
1) Leave voters will be super motivated
2) There'll be some reluctant remainers who think the 2016 referendum must be honoured.
3) For Remain to win it will need the demographic that seldom turns out in sufficient numbers to actually turn out. If they couldn't be arsed to turn out for Corbyn in 2017 then I doubt they'll turn out now.
It's not implausible, but I do take a different view.
1) Many will, but some like me will not. If I didn't regard it as a duty to vote I wouldn't bother, and even then it's hard. I know a guy who voted for the first time ever in 2016, at 59, and isn't going to next time. And that leads to 2
2) Yes, but there will be some who switch the other way. If the polls are right, quite a few.
3) The big risk, sure, but anecdotally the most hardcore remainers do not seem to have diminished their passion at all in 2 years, and that includes plenty of the young. They get to kick the government at the same time as well. The media and parties are in a frenzy about how vital this will be. I think enough will turn out given the other 2 points.
Obviously that would not be the end of our troubles. And I still say the arrogance of the remainvote campaigners (be honest!) could lead them to complacency, but I think they'll get it over the line, and MPs will be much more pliant on seeing it happen.
It's a bit of a myth that the young didn't turn out for Labour in 2017, based on some quickly released but apparently erroneous turnout data by age. YouGov's later analysis suggested that, while the turnout of the young was lower than of the old, it was significantly higher than in previous GEs. Reaction to 2016 is doubtless part of this, and a reason why (especially if Labour's motivated activist base is thrown behind it) another referendum is likely to see a higher youth turnout.
Conversely a lot of the usual-non-voters, typically middle aged people in (especially Labour)safe seats, who turned out in 2016 may not do so again.
And there were people who voted Leave as a protest, never expecting it to win (some in my family) who won't do so again. Leavers won't be able to claim that the whole thing will be amazingly easy to implement, and with a specific proposition in front of them its potential weaknesses will come under a lot more scrutiny.
Notwithstanding Mr Herdson's earlier piece, and the procedural difficulties still in play, I don't see how Remain can possibly screw it up from here. Remain Tories are in open revolt just like no dealers, Labour are inches away from pivoting to Remain officially or otherwise since in a referendum they won't back May's deal or no deal, the Tories still won't want a GE, and with neither main party able to articulate consistent support for the deal even before it is overwhelmingly rejected by parliament, Remain has such a good chance of winning now.
What a waste.
I'd still make Leave the favourites in the referendum.
Hard to say. It is clear that a lot of remainers do not even see the possibility of defeat, since plenty demand the public have a say because the public has changed its mind, which rather gives the game away on the official reason, for a confirmatory vote (whichever way that might be).
I'd vote remain over no deal, but the smug assumption of the dishonestnamevote campaigners could yet blow up in their faces.
Why I think Leave would win by an even larger majority.
1) Leave voters will be super motivated
2) There'll be some reluctant remainers who think the 2016 referendum must be honoured.
3) For Remain to win it will need the demographic that seldom turns out in sufficient numbers to actually turn out. If they couldn't be arsed to turn out for Corbyn in 2017 then I doubt they'll turn out now.
I voted Remain but would switch to vote for Leave with the Deal if that was an option.
I would still vote for Remain again over Leave with No Deal though.
I know the French national sport is rioting but the clips on the news look really bad. Is this something that will just pass or is macron government got a real crisis here? Is seems like the protests have spread beyond simply the fuel tax rise.
I think with the rise of China and AI, I think we are going to increasingly see a lot of very angry people across Europe as they realise their job for life, long vacations, early retirement is going to disappear and not sure politicians have any idea how to deal with it.
Are the French, Italians etc ready to accept that the world is going to overtake them with the Far East willing to work harder and longer and increasingly smarter.
The Far East is not even a majority of Asia let alone the world.
While China will likely lead the world in terms of GDP and close the gap or even overtake western nations in GDP per capita terms it is also not beyond the realms of possibility that as China grows its middle class, they too will want more vacations, a longer retirement etc
I am sure they will, but the difference is when you have one party state they can much more closely control this. They are never going to agree to the generous welfare state that western countries have developed and politically can do nothing but tinker around the edges.
Also the no scruples to stealing IP is a massive advantage when IP is the most valuable part of most businesses in the future.
That depends if a more politically motivated Chinese middle class start to rise within the party or even start to challenge it on the streets.
IP protection is certainly an issue national security agencies need to look more into
From Everything I know from people who have lived in China for a significant amount of time / speak the language, I just don’t think it is realistic. The culture is even more me and my family first than the worst excesses of the US.
If you have risen through the ranks you aren’t going to rock the boat, both because of the life you have and also you are more than likely end up in prison and disappearing.
And people on the streets, perhaps, but the authorities crack down on anything before it even has chance to get off the ground. Also remember they are doubling down on this with the social credit score. Good luck with your life if you get a poor rating.
The difference between say China and the west, we have allowed protest and civil disobedience for 100s of years. China are if anything going the other way.
Think I might be close to snapping about this "the first Prime Minister encouraging the country to do something that will make us poorer". It's such delusional rubbish. We make decisions that make us poorer in this country all the time. Many of which are wildly popular.
Notwithstanding Mr Herdson's earlier piece, and the procedural difficulties still in play, I don't see how Remain can possibly screw it up from here. Remain Tories are in open revolt just like no dealers, Labour are inches away from pivoting to Remain officially or otherwise since in a referendum they won't back May's deal or no deal, the Tories still won't want a GE, and with neither main party able to articulate consistent support for the deal even before it is overwhelmingly rejected by parliament, Remain has such a good chance of winning now.
What a waste.
I'd still make Leave the favourites in the referendum.
Hard to say. It is clear that a lot of remainers do not even see the possibility of defeat, since plenty demand the public have a say because the public has changed its mind, which rather gives the game away on the official reason, for a confirmatory vote (whichever way that might be).
I'd vote remain over no deal, but the smug assumption of the dishonestnamevote campaigners could yet blow up in their faces.
You're an interesting albeit not representative example of roughly on-the-fence voters who a binary referendum ultimately pushes off the fence, however uncomfortable that is for you.
I suspect you'd be pretty torn in a "May's Deal vs Remain" referendum.
Do you think the way you voted in a "No Deal vs Remain" referendum would be affected by whether you felt the poll had been "set up" or "rigged" to deliberately push the oh-so-naughty-last-time public into holding their noses and voting for Remain, versus if you thought that the referendum question had arisen essentially "naturally" in the circumstances?
I'd be tempted by remain. Despite months and months of backing leave online I still hesitated for a good 40 seconds in the polling booth. Sad as it is to say, without the embarrassment (even anonymously) of having to lie online about having followed through on my words, I'd probably have voted remain in the end.
But I don't think my view in a referendum would be affected by if I felt it had been set up to deliberately lead us to this path. You have to answer the question before you, however it got to you. It would, I am sure, impact who I considered voting for in a GE. And admittedly, for me, no deal starts at an inherent disadvantage.
Thanks.
You made a very good point that if there was a referendum under a May / Generic Other Tory government, then BrexitRef2 would be an epic chance to kick them.
If the referendum was under a Labour/National Unity government then perhaps that wouldn't be regarded as such an important factor.
Think I might be close to snapping about this "the first Prime Minister encouraging the country to do something that will make us poorer". It's such delusional rubbish. We make decisions that make us poorer in this country all the time. Many of which are wildly popular.
The bbc had the most ridiculous outrage article about the 26-30 travel card. They had all these tales of the 6 month delay “costing” people £100s because their birthday was 1 day before the new date...but that would have been true if it had been the old date, just a different group of people.
Notwithstanding Mr Herdson's earlier piece, and the procedural difficulties still in play, I don't see how Remain can possibly screw it up from here. Remain Tories are in open revolt just like no dealers, Labour are inches away from pivoting to Remain officially or otherwise since in a referendum they won't back May's deal or no deal, the Tories still won't want a GE, and with neither main party able to articulate consistent support for the deal even before it is overwhelmingly rejected by parliament, Remain has such a good chance of winning now.
What a waste.
I'd still make Leave the favourites in the referendum.
Hard to say. It is clear that a lot of remainers do not even see the possibility of defeat, since plenty demand the public have a say because the public has changed its mind, which rather gives the game away on the official reason, for a confirmatory vote (whichever way that might be).
I'd vote remain over no deal, but the smug assumption of the dishonestnamevote campaigners could yet blow up in their faces.
Why I think Leave would win by an even larger majority.
1) Leave voters will be super motivated
2) There'll be some reluctant remainers who think the 2016 referendum must be honoured.
3) For Remain to win it will need the demographic that seldom turns out in sufficient numbers to actually turn out. If they couldn't be arsed to turn out for Corbyn in 2017 then I doubt they'll turn out now.
I voted Remain but would switch to vote for Leave with the Deal if that was an option.
I would still vote for Remain again over Leave with No Deal though.
#MeToo
So would I.
Admit I'm a bit surprised you would vote for Leave (albeit with deal) over Remain!
What would make you uncomfortable with voting Remain if given that binary choice?
Think I might be close to snapping about this "the first Prime Minister encouraging the country to do something that will make us poorer". It's such delusional rubbish. We make decisions that make us poorer in this country all the time. Many of which are wildly popular.
Think I might be close to snapping about this "the first Prime Minister encouraging the country to do something that will make us poorer". It's such delusional rubbish. We make decisions that make us poorer in this country all the time. Many of which are wildly popular.
There is only one negotiated deal available for the foreseeable - it would be crazy for that not to be on a referendum ballot.
I don't see the point. The public is not clamouring for it and the Commons will reject it by 150+, maybe even by 200+ given Gymiah's probably not the last to go, who the hell knows. Labour won't back it in a campaign, nor will any other party, and given only around 200 Tories will support it on the first attempt, no way after it is humiliated will the party as a whole back it, so in essence you will have May, and a few Rory Stewarts, and virtually no one else, going up against the combined mix of the remain campaign, and the majority of leave campaigners, on something the public have heard over and over is a pile of crap.
It might as well not be included and just be straight remain or no deal. If the MV is relatively close, I could see it, but not with the stonking great loss that is predicted.
I am ultimately positive that new jobs sectors will emerge, but how long that takes and nobody wants to lose the job they have trained all their life and been a pretty cushy deal.
The flip side of this is that globalisation, automation etc means the basic material necessities of life have never been, in real terms, more affordable (in terms of hours of work at typical pay rates you'd need to turn in to purchase them) - with the exception of residential property, where we hit the problem of a finite supply of land. This means that considerable changes to the conventional Western lifestyle are possible, even if most don't desire to pursue them.
In principle, any work I do these days is voluntary rather than financially-enforced because if I wanted to I could give up tomorrow and still live quite comfortably on my investments - but then I am also relatively highly skilled, have had periods of very intense work, and I maintained a very high savings rate that a lot of people would have found extremely uncomfortable. I know I'm not alone in pursuing that but if a lot of us did it, we'd screw up the consumer economy. In fact if I'd had more information about how my life was going to turn out, I might have restructured it so I was working something like 15-30 hour weeks (perhaps starting higher and tapering off) and just prolong the time I had to work. (Turns out that retiring early is actually a pretty daunting prospect - I mean, what would you do with yourself? - so the fact I could in principle is really more about "just in case" security than out of wanting the choice.)
A rather head-in-the-clouds academic suggested to me this week that the way forward for Western societies is for people to cut down their hours of work, reduce their levels of stress and burn-out, and in their tighter financial circumstances, quit consuming so much. His idea is that we'd be healthier, greener and overall quite a lot happier. We would also be poorer, which is why I'm not convinced his big idea will actually catch on.
Your final paragraph sounds like a bloody good idea. I would suggest that we would be less wealthy rather than poorer, and in non - financial terms considerably richer.
That actually does have to be the answer. It's just not possible within the laws of physics* for productivity and real GDP per capita to increase forever.
I suspect that, if mankind survives it, the 21st century will be the century where we adjusted to new ways of measuring wellbeing, other than wealth. And hooray for that!
(tbh I only got 'o' level physics but I am pretty confident I'm right on this one!)
Think I might be close to snapping about this "the first Prime Minister encouraging the country to do something that will make us poorer". It's such delusional rubbish. We make decisions that make us poorer in this country all the time. Many of which are wildly popular.
The flip side of this is that globalisation, automation etc means the basic material necessities of life have never been, in real terms, more affordable (in terms of hours of work at typical pay rates you'd need to turn in to purchase them) - with the exception of residential property, where we hit the problem of a finite supply of land. This means that considerable changes to the conventional Western lifestyle are possible, even if most don't desire to pursue them.
In principle, any work I do these days is voluntary rather than financially-enforced because if I wanted to I could give up tomorrow and still live quite comfortably on my investments - but then I am also relatively highly skilled, have had periods of very intense work, and I maintained a very high savings rate that a lot of people would have found extremely uncomfortable. I know I'm not alone in pursuing that but if a lot of us did it, we'd screw up the consumer economy. In fact if I'd had more information about how my life was going to turn out, I might have restructured it so I was working something like 15-30 hour weeks (perhaps starting higher and tapering off) and just prolong the time I had to work. (Turns out that retiring early is actually a pretty daunting prospect - I mean, what would you do with yourself? - so the fact I could in principle is really more about "just in case" security than out of wanting the choice.)
A rather head-in-the-clouds academic suggested to me this week that the way forward for Western societies is for people to cut down their hours of work, reduce their levels of stress and burn-out, and in their tighter financial circumstances, quit consuming so much. His idea is that we'd be healthier, greener and overall quite a lot happier. We would also be poorer, which is why I'm not convinced his big idea will actually catch on.
Your final paragraph sounds like a bloody good idea. I would suggest that we would be less wealthy rather than poorer, and in non - financial terms considerably richer.
Would be tricky making a decent quality of life on part-time hours if you're a sole-earner on minimum wage. Something Western society could justabout afford and which would make this powerful, but which would change its landscape considerably, would be some form of universal basic income of course.
Think I might be close to snapping about this "the first Prime Minister encouraging the country to do something that will make us poorer". It's such delusional rubbish. We make decisions that make us poorer in this country all the time. Many of which are wildly popular.
I'm susceptible to those kind of arguments, but when I see them clung to so rigidly it just makes me reflect that the trendy thing thesedays is to say not everything is about the money. I'm sure most political parties agree with that.
There is only one negotiated deal available for the foreseeable - it would be crazy for that not to be on a referendum ballot.
I don't see the point. The public is not clamouring for it and the Commons will reject it by 150+, maybe even by 200+ given Gymiah's probably not the last to go, who the hell knows. Labour won't back it in a campaign, nor will any other party, and given only around 200 Tories will support it on the first attempt, no way after it is humiliated will the party as a whole back it, so in essence you will have May, and a few Rory Stewarts, and virtually no one else, going up against the combined mix of the remain campaign, and the majority of leave campaigners, on something the public have heard over and over is a pile of crap.
It might as well not be included and just be straight remain or no deal. If the MV is relatively close, I could see it, but not with the stonking great loss that is predicted.
Then either No Deal wins - and we have economic chaos - or Remain wins and the campaign to Leave gets underway again (UKIP Farage and all) right away.
Oh, and by the way, it;s not even clear Remain is an option that can be followed through. The EU may not agree to it (I wouldn't tbh, if I were them).
Notwithstanding Mr Herdson's earlier piece, and the procedural difficulties still in play, I don't see how Remain can possibly screw it up from here. Remain Tories are in open revolt just like no dealers, Labour are inches away from pivoting to Remain officially or otherwise since in a referendum they won't back May's deal or no deal, the Tories still won't want a GE, and with neither main party able to articulate consistent support for the deal even before it is overwhelmingly rejected by parliament, Remain has such a good chance of winning now.
What a waste.
I'd still make Leave the favourites in the referendum.
Hard to say. It is clear that a lot of remainers do not even see the possibility of defeat, since plenty demand the public have a say because the public has changed its mind, which rather gives the game away on the official reason, for a confirmatory vote (whichever way that might be).
I'd vote remain over no deal, but the smug assumption of the dishonestnamevote campaigners could yet blow up in their faces.
Why I think Leave would win by an even larger majority.
1) Leave voters will be super motivated
2) There'll be some reluctant remainers who think the 2016 referendum must be honoured.
3) For Remain to win it will need the demographic that seldom turns out in sufficient numbers to actually turn out. If they couldn't be arsed to turn out for Corbyn in 2017 then I doubt they'll turn out now.
Are you talking about Remain versus No Deal or Remain versus May's Deal?
Remain vs No Deal.
Not going to happen. May's Deal will be on any 2nd referendum.
Care to bet on that? It would be a farce for it to be included.
When 56% of voters would vote for the Deal over Remain and 58% for the Deal over No Deal with Deltapoll it is clearly the option which has the highest potential support, so it would be absurd if the Deal was not included
It's a bit of a myth that the young didn't turn out for Labour in 2017, based on some quickly released but apparently erroneous turnout data by age. YouGov's later analysis suggested that, while the turnout of the young was lower than of the old, it was significantly higher than in previous GEs. Reaction to 2016 is doubtless part of this, and a reason why (especially if Labour's motivated activist base is thrown behind it) another referendum is likely to see a higher youth turnout.
Conversely a lot of the usual-non-voters, typically middle aged people in (especially Labour)safe seats, who turned out in 2016 may not do so again.
And there were people who voted Leave as a protest, never expecting it to win (some in my family) who won't do so again. Leavers won't be able to claim that the whole thing will be amazingly easy to implement, and with a specific proposition in front of them its potential weaknesses will come under a lot more scrutiny.
Quite. And what will the leave campaign message be in a new referendum? You know it's nothing like we promised in 2016, in fact it's crap, but go for it anyway? Hmmmmm.....
There is only one negotiated deal available for the foreseeable - it would be crazy for that not to be on a referendum ballot.
I don't see the point. The public is not clamouring for it and the Commons will reject it by 150+, maybe even by 200+ given Gymiah's probably not the last to go, who the hell knows. Labour won't back it in a campaign, nor will any other party, and given only around 200 Tories will support it on the first attempt, no way after it is humiliated will the party as a whole back it, so in essence you will have May, and a few Rory Stewarts, and virtually no one else, going up against the combined mix of the remain campaign, and the majority of leave campaigners, on something the public have heard over and over is a pile of crap.
It might as well not be included and just be straight remain or no deal. If the MV is relatively close, I could see it, but not with the stonking great loss that is predicted.
Then either No Deal wins - and we have economic chaos - or Remain wins and the campaign to Leave gets underway again (UKIP Farage and all) right away.
Oh, and by the way, it;s not even clear Remain is an option that can be followed through. The EU may not agree to it (I wouldn't tbh, if I were them).
Tell that to the no dealers (and fantasy new dealers) and remainers. They all believe otherwise, and because of that the deal is not politically viable and so one of the remaining two options has to pass.
There is only one negotiated deal available for the foreseeable - it would be crazy for that not to be on a referendum ballot.
I don't see the point. The public is not clamouring for it and the Commons will reject it by 150+, maybe even by 200+ given Gymiah's probably not the last to go, who the hell knows. Labour won't back it in a campaign, nor will any other party, and given only around 200 Tories will support it on the first attempt, no way after it is humiliated will the party as a whole back it, so in essence you will have May, and a few Rory Stewarts, and virtually no one else, going up against the combined mix of the remain campaign, and the majority of leave campaigners, on something the public have heard over and over is a pile of crap.
It might as well not be included and just be straight remain or no deal. If the MV is relatively close, I could see it, but not with the stonking great loss that is predicted.
Then either No Deal wins - and we have economic chaos - or Remain wins and the campaign to Leave gets underway again (UKIP Farage and all) right away.
Oh, and by the way, it;s not even clear Remain is an option that can be followed through. The EU may not agree to it (I wouldn't tbh, if I were them).
Tell that to the no dealers (and fantasy new dealers) and remainers. They all believe otherwise, and because of that the deal is not politically viable and so one of the remaining two options has to pass.
The Deal is politically viable if over 50% of voters vote for it in a referendum head to head against Remain or No Deal, then MPs will have to implement it.
Deltapoll gives the Deal 58% against No Deal and 56% against Remain, I suspect May is starting to think about that too, hence she is now touring the country and trying to sell her Deal to the public who are more supportive of it than MPs
Notwithstanding Mr Herdson's earlier piece, and the procedural difficulties still in play, I don't see how Remain can possibly screw it up from here. Remain Tories are in open revolt just like no dealers, Labour are inches away from pivoting to Remain officially or otherwise since in a referendum they won't back May's deal or no deal, the Tories still won't want a GE, and with neither main party able to articulate consistent support for the deal even before it is overwhelmingly rejected by parliament, Remain has such a good chance of winning now.
What a waste.
Can Theresa May herself pivot to Remain if her deal is defeated? Whatever she entered politics to achieve, whatever Mayism is, it was not Brexit. There's a fly-on-the-wall style video David Cameron made for The Sun, iirc, when he talks about stepping back from a problem in order to understand the aim. What will Theresa May be thinking about on the flight home from Argentina? Is no Brexit better than no deal?
It's a bit of a myth that the young didn't turn out for Labour in 2017, based on some quickly released but apparently erroneous turnout data by age. YouGov's later analysis suggested that, while the turnout of the young was lower than of the old, it was significantly higher than in previous GEs. Reaction to 2016 is doubtless part of this, and a reason why (especially if Labour's motivated activist base is thrown behind it) another referendum is likely to see a higher youth turnout.
Conversely a lot of the usual-non-voters, typically middle aged people in (especially Labour)safe seats, who turned out in 2016 may not do so again.
And there were people who voted Leave as a protest, never expecting it to win (some in my family) who won't do so again. Leavers won't be able to claim that the whole thing will be amazingly easy to implement, and with a specific proposition in front of them its potential weaknesses will come under a lot more scrutiny.
Quite. And what will the leave campaign message be in a new referendum? You know it's nothing like we promised in 2016, in fact it's crap, but go for it anyway? Hmmmmm.....
Leave's message would be "no means no" or some variant on that.
A rather head-in-the-clouds academic suggested to me this week that the way forward for Western societies is for people to cut down their hours of work, reduce their levels of stress and burn-out, and in their tighter financial circumstances, quit consuming so much. His idea is that we'd be healthier, greener and overall quite a lot happier. We would also be poorer, which is why I'm not convinced his big idea will actually catch on.
Your final paragraph sounds like a bloody good idea. I would suggest that we would be less wealthy rather than poorer, and in non - financial terms considerably richer.
That actually does have to be the answer. It's just not possible within the laws of physics* for productivity and real GDP per capita to increase forever.
I suspect that, if mankind survives it, the 21st century will be the century where we adjusted to new ways of measuring wellbeing, other than wealth. And hooray for that!
(tbh I only got 'o' level physics but I am pretty confident I'm right on this one!)
The problem with that isn't GCSE Physics, but GCSE Economics...
Value-added isn't the same as physical "stuff". Something can be more valuable but require fewer physical resources. Just as a very basic example, imagine if everything you read online had to be ordered on physical pages and delivered to you! And to read just one story on BBC Online, one on the Guardian and one on the Telegraph, you had to get to get three whole newspapers. Oh and a spot of guilt sidebar of shaming on the Mail? That'll be a fourth, plus probably a 'sleb magazine or three since the paper offering isn't quite as sidebooby as online and that experience might have to be purchased elsewhere.
Plus if you clicked on one of their little video clips, you'd get a VHS (or film reel!) through the letterbox too...
Notwithstanding Mr Herdson's earlier piece, and the procedural difficulties still in play, I don't see how Remain can possibly screw it up from here. Remain Tories are in open revolt just like no dealers, Labour are inches away from pivoting to Remain officially or otherwise since in a referendum they won't back May's deal or no deal, the Tories still won't want a GE, and with neither main party able to articulate consistent support for the deal even before it is overwhelmingly rejected by parliament, Remain has such a good chance of winning now.
What a waste.
I'd still make Leave the favourites in the referendum.
Hard to say. It is clear that a lot of remainers do not even see the possibility of defeat, since plenty demand the public have a say because the public has changed its mind, which rather gives the game away on the official reason, for a confirmatory vote (whichever way that might be).
I'd vote remain over no deal, but the smug assumption of the dishonestnamevote campaigners could yet blow up in their faces.
Why I think Leave would win by an even larger majority.
1) Leave voters will be super motivated
2) There'll be some reluctant remainers who think the 2016 referendum must be honoured.
3) For Remain to win it will need the demographic that seldom turns out in sufficient numbers to actually turn out. If they couldn't be arsed to turn out for Corbyn in 2017 then I doubt they'll turn out now.
Are you talking about Remain versus No Deal or Remain versus May's Deal?
Remain vs No Deal.
Not going to happen. May's Deal will be on any 2nd referendum.
Care to bet on that? It would be a farce for it to be included.
When 56% of voters would vote for the Deal over Remain and 58% for the Deal over No Deal with Deltapoll it is clearly the option which has the highest potential support, so it would be absurd if the Deal was not included
Absurd? Perhaps. I can still see it not being included. It does depend on if the Tories do what they need to and get rid of May. She will obviously want to include the deal, any subsequent leader will not, since there's no way the next leader gets appointed on a 'let's just try the same thing' message.
Notwithstanding Mr Herdson's earlier piece, and the procedural difficulties still in play, I don't see how Remain can possibly screw it up from here. Remain Tories are in open revolt just like no dealers, Labour are inches away from pivoting to Remain officially or otherwise since in a referendum they won't back May's deal or no deal, the Tories still won't want a GE, and with neither main party able to articulate consistent support for the deal even before it is overwhelmingly rejected by parliament, Remain has such a good chance of winning now.
What a waste.
I'd still make Leave the favourites in the referendum.
Hard to say. It is clear that a lot of remainers do not even see the possibility of defeat, since plenty demand the public have a say because the public has changed its mind, which rather gives the game away on the official reason, for a confirmatory vote (whichever way that might be).
I'd vote remain over no deal, but the smug assumption of the dishonestnamevote campaigners could yet blow up in their faces.
Why I think Leave would win by an even larger majority.
1) Leave voters will be super motivated
2) There'll be some reluctant remainers who think the 2016 referendum must be honoured.
3) For Remain to win it will need the demographic that seldom turns out in sufficient numbers to actually turn out. If they couldn't be arsed to turn out for Corbyn in 2017 then I doubt they'll turn out now.
I voted Remain but would switch to vote for Leave with the Deal if that was an option.
I would still vote for Remain again over Leave with No Deal though.
#MeToo
So would I.
Admit I'm a bit surprised you would vote for Leave (albeit with deal) over Remain!
What would make you uncomfortable with voting Remain if given that binary choice?
I'd vote Remain over No Deal, without a doubt -to avoid the economic chaos of a no deal exit.
I might be tempted to vote Remain over May's Deal if I thought Remain would command say >60% of the vote.
But assuming it won't, I don't think a (say) 52/48 Remain win would settle anything. The Leave campaign (and all its nastiness) would be back in full swing and frankly we just need to move on now.
Notwithstanding Mr Herdson's earlier piece, and the procedural difficulties still in play, I don't see how Remain can possibly screw it up from here. Remain Tories are in open revolt just like no dealers, Labour are inches away from pivoting to Remain officially or otherwise since in a referendum they won't back May's deal or no deal, the Tories still won't want a GE, and with neither main party able to articulate consistent support for the deal even before it is overwhelmingly rejected by parliament, Remain has such a good chance of winning now.
What a waste.
Can Theresa May herself pivot to Remain if her deal is defeated? Whatever she entered politics to achieve, whatever Mayism is, it was not Brexit. There's a fly-on-the-wall style video David Cameron made for The Sun, iirc, when he talks about stepping back from a problem in order to understand the aim. What will Theresa May be thinking about on the flight home from Argentina? Is no Brexit better than no deal?
Well Dominic Raab and others have concluded No Brexit is better than this Brexit, and it is not much more of a leap for plenty of others to go from No Brexit is better than No Deal. Whether May is among them, I think there will be several Tories, beyond the regulars for whom it is already obviously the case that No Brexit is better than any Brexit, who make that switch.
I wonder how May would vote if she is removed. I would want to stick around as an MP at least until this phase of Brexit is done, and clearly she would feel free to vote whichever way she wanted no matter the new party direction.
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This is bigger than TM and if she resigns or loses a vnoc in her words 'nothing changes'
If I was a betting person I would see a referendum as more than likely but the bitterness will be eye watering with an uncertain outcome
I am ultimately positive that new jobs sectors will emerge, but how long that takes and nobody wants to lose the job they have trained all their life and been a pretty cushy deal.
While China will likely lead the world in terms of GDP and close the gap or even overtake western nations in GDP per capita terms it is also not beyond the realms of possibility that as China grows its middle class, they too will want more vacations, a longer retirement etc.
AI opens up the prospect of more flexible working and a universal basic income, which some French politicians like Hamon are already advocating
But are they really going to feel personal pressure over this? The Lib Dems and Greens have not exactly been surging up in the polls. I am sure the proportion of people who, on balance, would currently favour Remain is up versus the referendum period, but most remain-supporters are only fairly apathetically so. There is not some grand upswell of affectionate devotion towards the EU institutions. The massed populace do not seem to have switched their primary identification from "British" to "Pan-European". Few voters, let alone remainers, see things through the single-issue prism of Brexit alone. Frankly most people seem sick to the back teeth with the whole issue.
If Corbyn "lets Brexit happen", and the consequences in his constituency turn out to be apocalyptic, and voters there blame him personally for it and decide it's finally time for a Cablegasm, then I suppose it is not beyond all conception that his seat might be "at risk". But the particular way that chain of events would manifest in practice can hardly be reflected in a piece of purely hypothetical polling. I think "what would you do if?" polls are a waste of time and effort generally.
I'd vote remain over no deal, but the smug assumption of the dishonestnamevote campaigners could yet blow up in their faces.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1068243124076593152?s=20
Also the no scruples to stealing IP is a massive advantage when IP is the most valuable part of most businesses in the future.
Sitting PM has challenged LOTO to a one-on-one debate - there is nothing that can be done to force a change.
On your specific point about the debate, the arithmetic doesn't work for that. If the DUP vote against she can't guarantee a majority even if she convinces all her MPs.
A reporter on the BBC said that the amendments on the meaningful vote are not mandatory
He went on to say legislation has to be introduced into the HOC and HOL and passed to stop us falling out. No deal is default.
No doubt that is why ERG will do everything to stop anything changing that
It is a frightening thought that a group of ultra right politicians could have that effect on our Country
They have to be stopped and I do not care how
1) Leave voters will be super motivated
2) There'll be some reluctant remainers who think the 2016 referendum must be honoured.
3) For Remain to win it will need the demographic that seldom turns out in sufficient numbers to actually turn out. If they couldn't be arsed to turn out for Corbyn in 2017 then I doubt they'll turn out now.
What would happen if Remain won though? There's enough Tories who want it, or the ones who will do anything if the party says so, to with the other parties see it happen (assuming it is possible to revoke A50), but unless the authorising act made enacting the outcome law there's no way the Tories could stay together to put it through.
So I assume parliament votes to withdraw and then hold a GE, so Labour can win and take over properly? (yes, yes, backlash in some northern seats and all that. But against a Tory party in such a mess? Not the mess like now where they still somehow have leads in some polls, but 'no idea what our policy is' mess)
They'd have the numbers to pass that.
1) Many will, but some like me will not. If I didn't regard it as a duty to vote I wouldn't bother, and even then it's hard. I know a guy who voted for the first time ever in 2016, at 59, and isn't going to next time. And that leads to 2
2) Yes, but there will be some who switch the other way. If the polls are right, quite a few.
3) The big risk, sure, but anecdotally the most hardcore remainers do not seem to have diminished their passion at all in 2 years, and that includes plenty of the young. They get to kick the government at the same time as well. The media and parties are in a frenzy about how vital this will be. I think enough will turn out given the other 2 points.
Obviously that would not be the end of our troubles. And I still say the arrogance of the remainvote campaigners (be honest!) could lead them to complacency, but I think they'll get it over the line, and MPs will be much more pliant on seeing it happen.
In principle, any work I do these days is voluntary rather than financially-enforced because if I wanted to I could give up tomorrow and still live quite comfortably on my investments - but then I am also relatively highly skilled, have had periods of very intense work, and I maintained a very high savings rate that a lot of people would have found extremely uncomfortable. I know I'm not alone in pursuing that but if a lot of us did it, we'd screw up the consumer economy. In fact if I'd had more information about how my life was going to turn out, I might have restructured it so I was working something like 15-30 hour weeks (perhaps starting higher and tapering off) and just prolong the time I had to work. (Turns out that retiring early is actually a pretty daunting prospect - I mean, what would you do with yourself? - so the fact I could in principle is really more about "just in case" security than out of wanting the choice.)
A rather head-in-the-clouds academic suggested to me this week that the way forward for Western societies is for people to cut down their hours of work, reduce their levels of stress and burn-out, and in their tighter financial circumstances, quit consuming so much. His idea is that we'd be healthier, greener and overall quite a lot happier. We would also be poorer, which is why I'm not convinced his big idea will actually catch on.
I would still vote for Remain again over Leave with No Deal though.
Truly a genius .......
IP protection is certainly an issue national security agencies need to look more into
The biggest fantasies going on at the moment are that a substantial renegotiation is no problem, and that once May goes the Tories could unite behind any position (and this leader) sufficiently strongly and quickly to take the lead on any action.
And yet a GE just causes massive unneeded delays to the whole process (if we are to get a delay, and that is possible, someone needs to be in place to ask for it), so how do we get from A to B. Months of speculating and still the path looks unclear.
I'd except No Deal to be eliminated then May's Deal to win over Remain... Which (even as a Reaminer) I can see is a sound reflection of the original 52/48 split.
I suspect you'd be pretty torn in a "May's Deal vs Remain" referendum.
Do you think the way you voted in a "No Deal vs Remain" referendum would be affected by whether you felt the poll had been "set up" or "rigged" to deliberately push the oh-so-naughty-last-time public into holding their noses and voting for Remain, versus if you thought that the referendum question had arisen essentially "naturally" in the circumstances?
It's the only explanation for that Manifesto, that campaign.
But I don't think my view in a referendum would be affected by if I felt it had been set up to deliberately lead us to this path. You have to answer the question before you, however it got to you. It would, I am sure, impact who I considered voting for in a GE. And admittedly, for me, no deal starts at an inherent disadvantage.
Conversely a lot of the usual-non-voters, typically middle aged people in (especially Labour)safe seats, who turned out in 2016 may not do so again.
And there were people who voted Leave as a protest, never expecting it to win (some in my family) who won't do so again. Leavers won't be able to claim that the whole thing will be amazingly easy to implement, and with a specific proposition in front of them its potential weaknesses will come under a lot more scrutiny.
If you have risen through the ranks you aren’t going to rock the boat, both because of the life you have and also you are more than likely end up in prison and disappearing.
And people on the streets, perhaps, but the authorities crack down on anything before it even has chance to get off the ground. Also remember they are doubling down on this with the social credit score. Good luck with your life if you get a poor rating.
The difference between say China and the west, we have allowed protest and civil disobedience for 100s of years. China are if anything going the other way.
You made a very good point that if there was a referendum under a May / Generic Other Tory government, then BrexitRef2 would be an epic chance to kick them.
If the referendum was under a Labour/National Unity government then perhaps that wouldn't be regarded as such an important factor.
What would make you uncomfortable with voting Remain if given that binary choice?
Theresa, what have you done.....
It might as well not be included and just be straight remain or no deal. If the MV is relatively close, I could see it, but not with the stonking great loss that is predicted.
I suspect that, if mankind survives it, the 21st century will be the century where we adjusted to new ways of measuring wellbeing, other than wealth. And hooray for that!
(tbh I only got 'o' level physics but I am pretty confident I'm right on this one!)
I know we've had this discussion five times already. I just don't understand your surprise.
It's not a backstop if it's time limited.
Not at all, head into his twitter feed
I am sure Seamus will claim there just isn’t any evidence.
Oh, and by the way, it;s not even clear Remain is an option that can be followed through. The EU may not agree to it (I wouldn't tbh, if I were them).
Deltapoll gives the Deal 58% against No Deal and 56% against Remain, I suspect May is starting to think about that too, hence she is now touring the country and trying to sell her Deal to the public who are more supportive of it than MPs
Value-added isn't the same as physical "stuff". Something can be more valuable but require fewer physical resources. Just as a very basic example, imagine if everything you read online had to be ordered on physical pages and delivered to you! And to read just one story on BBC Online, one on the Guardian and one on the Telegraph, you had to get to get three whole newspapers. Oh and a spot of guilt sidebar of shaming on the Mail? That'll be a fourth, plus probably a 'sleb magazine or three since the paper offering isn't quite as sidebooby as online and that experience might have to be purchased elsewhere.
Plus if you clicked on one of their little video clips, you'd get a VHS (or film reel!) through the letterbox too...
I might be tempted to vote Remain over May's Deal if I thought Remain would command say >60% of the vote.
But assuming it won't, I don't think a (say) 52/48 Remain win would settle anything. The Leave campaign (and all its nastiness) would be back in full swing and frankly we just need to move on now.
That's my reasoning.
I wonder how May would vote if she is removed. I would want to stick around as an MP at least until this phase of Brexit is done, and clearly she would feel free to vote whichever way she wanted no matter the new party direction.