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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On a huge political day the main Brexit linked betting changes

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited December 4 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On a huge political day the main Brexit linked betting changes

Charts once again based on latest trades on the Betfair exchange shown as a percentage probability and derived from Betdat.io

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Comments

  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 815
    edited December 4
    First like the "resurgent" SDP.

    Although as a social liberal, I'm not quite sure what I think of Nigel Farage taking over at my spiritual home.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 18,088
    Blue on blue now.

    This is a government falling to pieces in front of our eyes.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 36,855
    The mood music is shifting. It's remain to lose now. Which is still possible as there are many steps that yet, er, remain, but not surprised to see that cross over. Curious the referendum is still a lower chance. I guess an extension is still seen as likely before any such vote, as it is pretty close now.

    If there is not a GE next year I will be very happy, if slightly poorer.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 23,321
    Likewise

    First like the "resurgent" SDP.

    Although as a social liberal, I'm not quite sure what I think of Nigel Farage taking over at my spiritual home.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 36,855

    Blue on blue now.

    This is a government falling to pieces in front of our eyes.

    2018 will be its last year in office.
  • Johnson bumbling around now. Quite the busted flush these days.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 18,088
    kle4 said:

    Blue on blue now.

    This is a government falling to pieces in front of our eyes.

    2018 will be its last year in office.
    Last year or last 'full' year in office?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 18,088
    More blue on blue. Have the whips told loyalists to attack Boris as he speaks?
  • Like Damian McBride I'm fully expecting Mrs May to announce her resignation next week.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 36,855

    Johnson bumbling around now. Quite the busted flush these days.

    That's future PM Johnson, thank you.

    Actually I have no idea who the Tories could possibly choose. I've no doubt Hunt and Javid will twist to positions more pleasing to the membership once May goes next week, but the true believers still won't buy anything from them, Johnson seems to be very disliked by MPs, strong remainers are right out, so who? Contemptuous Cox? Come on.
  • More blue on blue. Have the whips told loyalists to attack Boris as he speaks?

    No, pretty much everyone thinks Boris is a ****.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 36,855

    kle4 said:

    Blue on blue now.

    This is a government falling to pieces in front of our eyes.

    2018 will be its last year in office.
    Last year or last 'full' year in office?
    Last full year. It's not easy to totally replace it in the next few weeks.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 18,088
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Blue on blue now.

    This is a government falling to pieces in front of our eyes.

    2018 will be its last year in office.
    Last year or last 'full' year in office?
    Last full year. It's not easy to totally replace it in the next few weeks.
    :+1: That's what I thought you meant.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 31,449
    kle4 said:

    Johnson bumbling around now. Quite the busted flush these days.

    That's future PM Johnson, thank you.

    Actually I have no idea who the Tories could possibly choose. I've no doubt Hunt and Javid will twist to positions more pleasing to the membership once May goes next week, but the true believers still won't buy anything from them, Johnson seems to be very disliked by MPs, strong remainers are right out, so who? Contemptuous Cox? Come on.
    Those saying the least are the ones to watch for future leader bid.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 18,088

    More blue on blue. Have the whips told loyalists to attack Boris as he speaks?

    No, pretty much everyone thinks Boris is a ****.
    And yet still 9 on BF.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 12,492
    FPT (so we can go through this thread without it being repeased)
    Novo said:

    None of the analysis here reflects on our changing Demographics might effect the outcome of a second referendum. There are roughly 500,000m deaths each year in the uk. If we assume that 75% voted leave and they are replaced by 16-17yr old from 2016 who would vote 75% to remain, then the original majority has probably disappeared. We should have sought a 60%+ majority for such major consitutional change. Parliament and our people are hopelessly divided - a good reason for staying as we are!

    Oh not this rubbish again!

    For every old person who dies another old person replaces them and they tend to be just as right wing.

    Hence the reason we don't stop having right of center governments!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 71,257
    edited December 4

    More blue on blue. Have the whips told loyalists to attack Boris as he speaks?

    No, pretty much everyone thinks Boris is a ****.
    And yet still 9 on BF.
    Tory MPs control the first part of the process.

    Boris Johnson is unlikely to carry his immediate family.

    Ignore the ConHome polls, members don't get to choose who the final two are.

    Plus Boris the coward has a history of quitting when the going gets tough.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 36,855

    kle4 said:

    Johnson bumbling around now. Quite the busted flush these days.

    That's future PM Johnson, thank you.

    Actually I have no idea who the Tories could possibly choose. I've no doubt Hunt and Javid will twist to positions more pleasing to the membership once May goes next week, but the true believers still won't buy anything from them, Johnson seems to be very disliked by MPs, strong remainers are right out, so who? Contemptuous Cox? Come on.
    Those saying the least are the ones to watch for future leader bid.
    Ah, that'll be this chap then - back in 2016 he was the least active in parliament of all the new intake

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-mp-royston-smith-is-least-active-among-parliaments-new-members-a6886761.html
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 3,159
    Boris really poor here. Finding it hard to put a coherent sentence together under heavy mockery.
  • Tory MP nails it.

    Boris and the ERG are trying to win 7 nil but risk losing 4 - 3.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 36,855
    eek said:
    Of course, if his leadership ambitions are floundering he has even less reason to stop opposing May (or her successor, since she is a zombie PM right now).
  • Boris Johnson: There are alternatives to the withdrawal agreement

    Sir Peter Bottomley (and other Tory MPs): So what are these alternatives?

    Boris: *Tumbleweeds*
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,317
    Good evening, everybody.

    I'm more than somewhat dismayed at the prospect of an anti-Jewish Labour government, but it will be interesting to see how communism works out in this day & age and in this country.
  • eekeek Posts: 2,409
    kle4 said:

    Johnson bumbling around now. Quite the busted flush these days.

    That's future PM Johnson, thank you.

    Actually I have no idea who the Tories could possibly choose. I've no doubt Hunt and Javid will twist to positions more pleasing to the membership once May goes next week, but the true believers still won't buy anything from them, Johnson seems to be very disliked by MPs, strong remainers are right out, so who? Contemptuous Cox? Come on.
    Liddington if May leaves immediately and I suspect Gove when the party election finishes...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 36,855

    Boris Johnson: There are alternatives to the withdrawal agreement

    Sir Peter Bottomley (and other Tory MPs): So what are these alternatives?

    Boris: *Tumbleweeds*

    That's peculiar, considering we have had reports the Cabinet (sans May) is preparing alternatives to the WA.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 18,088
    kle4 said:

    Boris Johnson: There are alternatives to the withdrawal agreement

    Sir Peter Bottomley (and other Tory MPs): So what are these alternatives?

    Boris: *Tumbleweeds*

    That's peculiar, considering we have had reports the Cabinet (sans May) is preparing alternatives to the WA.
    Yes, but not the ones that Boris 'Farage' Johnson wants.
  • eekeek Posts: 2,409
    edited December 4


    And I'm only quoting Ian as he is saving me from watching it.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 3,159
    Boris in full on cake and unicorns mode. Get rid of backstop and keep half the money. The EU will fold under such a scenario.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 18,088
    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    Johnson bumbling around now. Quite the busted flush these days.

    That's future PM Johnson, thank you.

    Actually I have no idea who the Tories could possibly choose. I've no doubt Hunt and Javid will twist to positions more pleasing to the membership once May goes next week, but the true believers still won't buy anything from them, Johnson seems to be very disliked by MPs, strong remainers are right out, so who? Contemptuous Cox? Come on.
    Liddington if May leaves immediately and I suspect Gove when the party election finishes...
    Liddington is 65 on BF
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 12,492
    AnneJGP said:

    Good evening, everybody.

    I'm more than somewhat dismayed at the prospect of an anti-Jewish Labour government, but it will be interesting to see how communism works out in this day & age and in this country.

    I think we've got to let Corbyn clear out the establishment in order to build something better after his done his worst...
  • eekeek Posts: 2,409
  • GIN1138 said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Good evening, everybody.

    I'm more than somewhat dismayed at the prospect of an anti-Jewish Labour government, but it will be interesting to see how communism works out in this day & age and in this country.

    I think we've got to let Corbyn clear out the establishment in order to build something better after his done his worst...
    Surely you joke?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 36,855
    Scott_P said:
    Apparently they are so desperate for a deal they will do just that.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 3,317
    dixiedean said:

    Boris in full on cake and unicorns mode. Get rid of backstop and keep half the money. The EU will fold under such a scenario.

    Hold off half the money that we’re committed to pay at a rate of about £1b a year over 40 years?

  • eekeek Posts: 2,409

    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    Johnson bumbling around now. Quite the busted flush these days.

    That's future PM Johnson, thank you.

    Actually I have no idea who the Tories could possibly choose. I've no doubt Hunt and Javid will twist to positions more pleasing to the membership once May goes next week, but the true believers still won't buy anything from them, Johnson seems to be very disliked by MPs, strong remainers are right out, so who? Contemptuous Cox? Come on.
    Liddington if May leaves immediately and I suspect Gove when the party election finishes...
    Liddington is 65 on BF
    You are looking at the wrong market - Liddington is 70 on BF for next PM and that is the first market to look at when May walks away next week and a short term PM is required...
  • Who is the MP sitting behind Johnson? Might stick a pony on him for next Tory Leader, tbh.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 5,750
    GIN1138 said:

    FPT (so we can go through this thread without it being repeased)


    Novo said:

    None of the analysis here reflects on our changing Demographics might effect the outcome of a second referendum. There are roughly 500,000m deaths each year in the uk. If we assume that 75% voted leave and they are replaced by 16-17yr old from 2016 who would vote 75% to remain, then the original majority has probably disappeared. We should have sought a 60%+ majority for such major consitutional change. Parliament and our people are hopelessly divided - a good reason for staying as we are!

    Oh not this rubbish again!

    For every old person who dies another old person replaces them and they tend to be just as right wing.

    Hence the reason we don't stop having right of center governments!
    Though we do have a substantially different electorate to 3 years ago, even if few change their minds, and that is before turnout issues.

    Traditionally the move to the right with age was due to economic issues, job progression, income, homeownership, children. That may well not be the case anymore, and conceivably the economic issues could push people towards Remain.

    The only way to be sure is to pull back and have a #peoplesvote, viewed from orbit.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 48,598

    More blue on blue. Have the whips told loyalists to attack Boris as he speaks?

    No, pretty much everyone thinks Boris is a ****.
    And yet still 9 on BF.
    Tory MPs control the first part of the process.

    Boris Johnson is unlikely to carry his immediate family.

    Ignore the ConHome polls, members don't get to choose who the final two are.

    Plus Boris the coward has a history of quitting when the going gets tough.
    Even Leadsom, IDS and Davis made the final 2 with MPs
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,317
    GIN1138 said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Good evening, everybody.

    I'm more than somewhat dismayed at the prospect of an anti-Jewish Labour government, but it will be interesting to see how communism works out in this day & age and in this country.

    I think we've got to let Corbyn clear out the establishment in order to build something better after his done his worst...
    Yes.
  • Apologies it was Sir Roger Gale not Sir Peter Bottomley.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 3,159
    alex. said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris in full on cake and unicorns mode. Get rid of backstop and keep half the money. The EU will fold under such a scenario.

    Hold off half the money that we’re committed to pay at a rate of about £1b a year over 40 years?

    Don't ask me. I am trying hard to follow. Logic, along with answering hostile questions, are not 2 of BoJos strong points.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 48,598

    Blue on blue now.

    This is a government falling to pieces in front of our eyes.

    That has been the case for months, yet still the Tories level with Labour in the polls and May leads Corbyn as best PM
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 18,088
    eek said:

    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    Johnson bumbling around now. Quite the busted flush these days.

    That's future PM Johnson, thank you.

    Actually I have no idea who the Tories could possibly choose. I've no doubt Hunt and Javid will twist to positions more pleasing to the membership once May goes next week, but the true believers still won't buy anything from them, Johnson seems to be very disliked by MPs, strong remainers are right out, so who? Contemptuous Cox? Come on.
    Liddington if May leaves immediately and I suspect Gove when the party election finishes...
    Liddington is 65 on BF
    You are looking at the wrong market - Liddington is 70 on BF for next PM and that is the first market to look at when May walks away next week and a short term PM is required...
    Indeed. Thanks. But that is what I am looking at. I have 65 on my screen.
  • HYUFD said:

    More blue on blue. Have the whips told loyalists to attack Boris as he speaks?

    No, pretty much everyone thinks Boris is a ****.
    And yet still 9 on BF.
    Tory MPs control the first part of the process.

    Boris Johnson is unlikely to carry his immediate family.

    Ignore the ConHome polls, members don't get to choose who the final two are.

    Plus Boris the coward has a history of quitting when the going gets tough.
    Even Leadsom, IDS and Davis made the final 2 with MPs
    And, Boris carries a lot more baggage than they ever did.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 48,598
    GIN1138 said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Good evening, everybody.

    I'm more than somewhat dismayed at the prospect of an anti-Jewish Labour government, but it will be interesting to see how communism works out in this day & age and in this country.

    I think we've got to let Corbyn clear out the establishment in order to build something better after his done his worst...
    If and when May goes it is hard to see past Boris v Corbyn
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 48,635
    I assume if (God forbid) Boris ever becomes Tory leader, Scott Mann will have quite a senior job.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 11,364
    I don't mind the Norway option much - it works well enough for Norway! Thanks to Andy Cooke for his handy overview of it on the last thread. However, it preserves freedom of movement, and there's very strong evidence that FOM is the main thing that most Leavers were trying to escape. I can't see it standing up to serious scrutiny when people contemplate the potential backlash.

    Boris is certainly toast in the Parliamentary party in terms of getting to the last 2. But if there's a split, I wonder if he might lead the Brexiteers - they would have a decent chance with him as he has universal recognition and a significant following. Compared with Farage, who IMO would not top 15%, he'd be a better bet to actually win seats.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 48,598

    HYUFD said:

    More blue on blue. Have the whips told loyalists to attack Boris as he speaks?

    No, pretty much everyone thinks Boris is a ****.
    And yet still 9 on BF.
    Tory MPs control the first part of the process.

    Boris Johnson is unlikely to carry his immediate family.

    Ignore the ConHome polls, members don't get to choose who the final two are.

    Plus Boris the coward has a history of quitting when the going gets tough.
    Even Leadsom, IDS and Davis made the final 2 with MPs
    And, Boris carries a lot more baggage than they ever did.
    But has a lot more charisma and the support of the DUP
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 5,750
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Good evening, everybody.

    I'm more than somewhat dismayed at the prospect of an anti-Jewish Labour government, but it will be interesting to see how communism works out in this day & age and in this country.

    I think we've got to let Corbyn clear out the establishment in order to build something better after his done his worst...
    If and when May goes it is hard to see past Boris v Corbyn
    Maybe not youself but some of us can!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 12,321
    GIN1138 said:

    FPT (so we can go through this thread without it being repeased)


    Novo said:

    None of the analysis here reflects on our changing Demographics might effect the outcome of a second referendum. There are roughly 500,000m deaths each year in the uk. If we assume that 75% voted leave and they are replaced by 16-17yr old from 2016 who would vote 75% to remain, then the original majority has probably disappeared. We should have sought a 60%+ majority for such major consitutional change. Parliament and our people are hopelessly divided - a good reason for staying as we are!

    Oh not this rubbish again!

    For every old person who dies another old person replaces them and they tend to be just as right wing.

    Hence the reason we don't stop having right of center governments!
    These conversions tend to happen in middle age. As the average age of home ownership inexorably rises into the same age group, one wonders whether the tendency is diminishing somewhat.
  • eekeek Posts: 2,409

    eek said:

    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    Johnson bumbling around now. Quite the busted flush these days.

    That's future PM Johnson, thank you.

    Actually I have no idea who the Tories could possibly choose. I've no doubt Hunt and Javid will twist to positions more pleasing to the membership once May goes next week, but the true believers still won't buy anything from them, Johnson seems to be very disliked by MPs, strong remainers are right out, so who? Contemptuous Cox? Come on.
    Liddington if May leaves immediately and I suspect Gove when the party election finishes...
    Liddington is 65 on BF
    You are looking at the wrong market - Liddington is 70 on BF for next PM and that is the first market to look at when May walks away next week and a short term PM is required...
    Indeed. Thanks. But that is what I am looking at. I have 65 on my screen.
    I can still see £3 at 70.. (it was £6 but I've taken £3 of it to add to the amount I added earlier),.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 36,855
    HYUFD said:

    Blue on blue now.

    This is a government falling to pieces in front of our eyes.

    That has been the case for months, yet still the Tories level with Labour in the polls and May leads Corbyn as best PM
    Something is going to give at some point. Even if you want to vote Tory how would you even know what you might be voting for if there were an election? Labour's Brexit policy is a deliberately vague contradiction, but at least I know it, the Tories could be backing anything by next week when May goes, and even then hundreds of them will be supporting some other thing, who knows what any candidates might think.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 18,088
    HYUFD said:

    Blue on blue now.

    This is a government falling to pieces in front of our eyes.

    That has been the case for months, yet still the Tories level with Labour in the polls and May leads Corbyn as best PM
    Oh yes, I agree. I was talking about the control and command of the HoC.

    That is collapsing as we watch. Power is sometimes psychological as well as shear numbers.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 1,826
    GIN1138 said:

    FPT (so we can go through this thread without it being repeased)


    Novo said:

    None of the analysis here reflects on our changing Demographics might effect the outcome of a second referendum. There are roughly 500,000m deaths each year in the uk. If we assume that 75% voted leave and they are replaced by 16-17yr old from 2016 who would vote 75% to remain, then the original majority has probably disappeared. We should have sought a 60%+ majority for such major consitutional change. Parliament and our people are hopelessly divided - a good reason for staying as we are!

    Oh not this rubbish again!

    For every old person who dies another old person replaces them and they tend to be just as right wing.

    Hence the reason we don't stop having right of center governments!
    Generally I would be inclined to agree but not over such a short time scale. People might become more conservative over decades as they get older but I doubt anyone has suddenly become more Brexity because they are 2 years older.

    You might not care to admit it but demographics will undoubtedly help Remain if there is a second vote. Deaths will have come overwhelmingly from the most Brexit demographic and youngsters joining the register are likely to be overwhelmingly remain. I'm not sure how you can seriously argue otherwise.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 48,598
    Good closing line from Boris 'If we try and cheat the voters now they will spot it and never forgive it'
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 5,750
    Scott_P said:
    Have they got their popcorn out? or is that unparliamentry?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 48,598
    Ian Blackford now up as the SNP's preference for permanent Single Market and Customs Union looms closer
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 1,221
    The government has shown it does not have the necessary will and numbers to govern and parliament has shown it does not have the numbers to act decisively (except maybe for Norway?)

    Can’t belive I’m saying this but it’s time for a GE.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 36,855

    I don't mind the Norway option much - it works well enough for Norway! Thanks to Andy Cooke for his handy overview of it on the last thread. However, it preserves freedom of movement, and there's very strong evidence that FOM is the main thing that most Leavers were trying to escape. I can't see it standing up to serious scrutiny when people contemplate the potential backlash.

    Well sure, but a lot of MPs, possibly the majority are obviously working toward remain anyway, so a backlash is kind of going to be baked in.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 48,598

    The government has shown it does not have the necessary will and numbers to govern and parliament has shown it does not have the numbers to act decisively (except maybe for Norway?)

    Can’t belive I’m saying this but it’s time for a GE.

    Which acvording to the polls will lead to just more indecision and an even more hung parliament
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 12,492

    GIN1138 said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Good evening, everybody.

    I'm more than somewhat dismayed at the prospect of an anti-Jewish Labour government, but it will be interesting to see how communism works out in this day & age and in this country.

    I think we've got to let Corbyn clear out the establishment in order to build something better after his done his worst...
    Surely you joke?
    No. The establishment is out of control and purely in it for themselves. The country needs once in a century shake up.

    The people tried to do it with Brexit but that decision is in the process of being overturned.

    The only thing left to bring the establishment to their knees is a Corbyn government...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 18,088
    edited December 4
    Dunno about anyone else, but Boris summing up seemed to me to be a man who knows he is about to lose the prize in more ways than one.

    More like an exhausted warning than a clarion call to his ERG fellows.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 12,022
    So lots of fun on PB today I assume :wink:

    What strikes me is despite the utter uselessness of governments (and its a similar story in other western countries) life for almost all people continues to roll on as normal.

    There must be great inertia in modern society.

    I wonder if this was how people felt in the last century of the Roman Empire.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 48,598
    edited December 4

    I don't mind the Norway option much - it works well enough for Norway! Thanks to Andy Cooke for his handy overview of it on the last thread. However, it preserves freedom of movement, and there's very strong evidence that FOM is the main thing that most Leavers were trying to escape. I can't see it standing up to serious scrutiny when people contemplate the potential backlash.

    Boris is certainly toast in the Parliamentary party in terms of getting to the last 2. But if there's a split, I wonder if he might lead the Brexiteers - they would have a decent chance with him as he has universal recognition and a significant following. Compared with Farage, who IMO would not top 15%, he'd be a better bet to actually win seats.

    There are at least 80 Tory MPs who are staunch Brexiteers, if they get behind Boris they alone will ensure he gets to the final 2
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 5,750
    OllyT said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT (so we can go through this thread without it being repeased)


    Novo said:

    None of the analysis here reflects on our changing Demographics might effect the outcome of a second referendum. There are roughly 500,000m deaths each year in the uk. If we assume that 75% voted leave and they are replaced by 16-17yr old from 2016 who would vote 75% to remain, then the original majority has probably disappeared. We should have sought a 60%+ majority for such major consitutional change. Parliament and our people are hopelessly divided - a good reason for staying as we are!

    Oh not this rubbish again!

    For every old person who dies another old person replaces them and they tend to be just as right wing.

    Hence the reason we don't stop having right of center governments!
    Generally I would be inclined to agree but not over such a short time scale. People might become more conservative over decades as they get older but I doubt anyone has suddenly become more Brexity because they are 2 years older.

    You might not care to admit it but demographics will undoubtedly help Remain if there is a second vote. Deaths will have come overwhelmingly from the most Brexit demographic and youngsters joining the register are likely to be overwhelmingly remain. I'm not sure how you can seriously argue otherwise.
    Andactuarily the CDE demographic that is most Brexity has a higher than average mortality, while AB Liberals live on in their dotage. It is possible that numbers not standardised by SE class underestimate the effect.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    More blue on blue. Have the whips told loyalists to attack Boris as he speaks?

    No, pretty much everyone thinks Boris is a ****.
    And yet still 9 on BF.
    Tory MPs control the first part of the process.

    Boris Johnson is unlikely to carry his immediate family.

    Ignore the ConHome polls, members don't get to choose who the final two are.

    Plus Boris the coward has a history of quitting when the going gets tough.
    Even Leadsom, IDS and Davis made the final 2 with MPs
    And, Boris carries a lot more baggage than they ever did.
    But has a lot more charisma and the support of the DUP
    How many votes do the DUP have in the MPs section of the Tory leadership election?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 1,221
    HYUFD said:

    The government has shown it does not have the necessary will and numbers to govern and parliament has shown it does not have the numbers to act decisively (except maybe for Norway?)

    Can’t belive I’m saying this but it’s time for a GE.

    Which acvording to the polls will lead to just more indecision and an even more hung parliament
    As the previous election showed, we can’t guarantee a result based on pre campaign polls.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 36,855
    Foxy said:

    Scott_P said:
    Have they got their popcorn out? or is that unparliamentry?
    P451 of Erskine May is quite clear that refreshments may not be brought into or consumed in the chamber.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 48,598
    edited December 4
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Blue on blue now.

    This is a government falling to pieces in front of our eyes.

    That has been the case for months, yet still the Tories level with Labour in the polls and May leads Corbyn as best PM
    Something is going to give at some point. Even if you want to vote Tory how would you even know what you might be voting for if there were an election? Labour's Brexit policy is a deliberately vague contradiction, but at least I know it, the Tories could be backing anything by next week when May goes, and even then hundreds of them will be supporting some other thing, who knows what any candidates might think.
    It won't as most Tory voters would vote for them over Corbyn even if Tory MPs were machinegunning each other in the Commons whether that have agreed on anything or not
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 3,159
    edited December 4
    Boris was Labours perfect amuse bouche to cleanse the palate of Corbyns sub-par performance.
    They just sat back and enjoyed the blue on blue tones.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 36,855

    HYUFD said:

    The government has shown it does not have the necessary will and numbers to govern and parliament has shown it does not have the numbers to act decisively (except maybe for Norway?)

    Can’t belive I’m saying this but it’s time for a GE.

    Which acvording to the polls will lead to just more indecision and an even more hung parliament
    As the previous election showed, we can’t guarantee a result based on pre campaign polls.
    HYFUD is a fervent supporting of polling to say the least.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 4,809
    Probably the news that impacted directly on the lives of millions today was that Grayling remains TransportSec
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 36,855

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    More blue on blue. Have the whips told loyalists to attack Boris as he speaks?

    No, pretty much everyone thinks Boris is a ****.
    And yet still 9 on BF.
    Tory MPs control the first part of the process.

    Boris Johnson is unlikely to carry his immediate family.

    Ignore the ConHome polls, members don't get to choose who the final two are.

    Plus Boris the coward has a history of quitting when the going gets tough.
    Even Leadsom, IDS and Davis made the final 2 with MPs
    And, Boris carries a lot more baggage than they ever did.
    But has a lot more charisma and the support of the DUP
    How many votes do the DUP have in the MPs section of the Tory leadership election?
    More than they should, if they make clear through back channels that the confidence and supply agreement would not work with some candidates.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 1,221

    So lots of fun on PB today I assume :wink:

    What strikes me is despite the utter uselessness of governments (and its a similar story in other western countries) life for almost all people continues to roll on as normal.

    There must be great inertia in modern society.

    I wonder if this was how people felt in the last century of the Roman Empire.

    Largely it’s as a result of the major political battles of the post-war period having been won. But new battles now appear to be emerging, new fault lines. Trump, Brexit and Corbynism show that people are starting to challenge the status quo.

    At this stage, we just don’t know who the victors will be.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 12,022
    Remember how earlier this year some people tried to claim that foreign investment in the UK had collapsed ?

    ' Investment into the UK from foreign companies rose to the highest level ever recorded last year as investors shrug off Brexit worries.

    The value of the UK’s foreign direct investment (FDI) stocks in 2017 was £1,336.5bn, a rise of £149.2bn since 2016, according to figures published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

    The total, which is a record high, was boosted by a 321 per cent growth in investments from India.

    Outward investment also increased by £38.7bn to £1,313.3bn over the period. Earnings from these investments enjoyed considerable growth, reversing the negative trend seen in recent years. '

    http://www.cityam.com/270147/uk-foreign-investment-hits-record-high-investors-shun
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 48,598

    HYUFD said:

    Blue on blue now.

    This is a government falling to pieces in front of our eyes.

    That has been the case for months, yet still the Tories level with Labour in the polls and May leads Corbyn as best PM
    Oh yes, I agree. I was talking about the control and command of the HoC.

    That is collapsing as we watch. Power is sometimes psychological as well as shear numbers.
    The Commons is split down the middle but the last Brecit standing is probably BINO if May's Deal goes down
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 18,088
    Scott_P said:
    As I say, an exhausted-looking Boris (to me at least) seems almost resigned to the outcome now.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 36,855
    Scott_P said:
    Months and months ago I, and others I am sure, speculated that if any top Brexiteer was to flip back to remain and kind of make it work, it would be Boris. His words there are once again so anti the deal, or any similar deal, that remaining seems very viable.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 12,321
    dixiedean said:

    alex. said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris in full on cake and unicorns mode. Get rid of backstop and keep half the money. The EU will fold under such a scenario.

    Hold off half the money that we’re committed to pay at a rate of about £1b a year over 40 years?

    Don't ask me. I am trying hard to follow. Logic, along with answering hostile questions, are not 2 of BoJos strong points.
    Watching this speech you can see what a disaster he would be as PM. He has looked better on smaller stages where he isn't open to much challenge.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 18,088

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    More blue on blue. Have the whips told loyalists to attack Boris as he speaks?

    No, pretty much everyone thinks Boris is a ****.
    And yet still 9 on BF.
    Tory MPs control the first part of the process.

    Boris Johnson is unlikely to carry his immediate family.

    Ignore the ConHome polls, members don't get to choose who the final two are.

    Plus Boris the coward has a history of quitting when the going gets tough.
    Even Leadsom, IDS and Davis made the final 2 with MPs
    And, Boris carries a lot more baggage than they ever did.
    But has a lot more charisma and the support of the DUP
    How many votes do the DUP have in the MPs section of the Tory leadership election?
    None. And a lot less sway that they did last month, given the way they have carried on in recent days.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 48,598

    HYUFD said:

    The government has shown it does not have the necessary will and numbers to govern and parliament has shown it does not have the numbers to act decisively (except maybe for Norway?)

    Can’t belive I’m saying this but it’s time for a GE.

    Which acvording to the polls will lead to just more indecision and an even more hung parliament
    As the previous election showed, we can’t guarantee a result based on pre campaign polls.
    The Tories poll rating of 42% actually almost exactly matched that at the start of the campaign, all that happened was Corbyn squeezed the minor parties votes which he cannot do again.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 18,088
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Months and months ago I, and others I am sure, speculated that if any top Brexiteer was to flip back to remain and kind of make it work, it would be Boris. His words there are once again so anti the deal, or any similar deal, that remaining seems very viable.
    Indeed, you did. It would be incredible. But then again...
  • OllyT said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT (so we can go through this thread without it being repeased)


    Novo said:

    None of the analysis here reflects on our changing Demographics might effect the outcome of a second referendum. There are roughly 500,000m deaths each year in the uk. If we assume that 75% voted leave and they are replaced by 16-17yr old from 2016 who would vote 75% to remain, then the original majority has probably disappeared. We should have sought a 60%+ majority for such major consitutional change. Parliament and our people are hopelessly divided - a good reason for staying as we are!

    Oh not this rubbish again!

    For every old person who dies another old person replaces them and they tend to be just as right wing.

    Hence the reason we don't stop having right of center governments!
    Generally I would be inclined to agree but not over such a short time scale. People might become more conservative over decades as they get older but I doubt anyone has suddenly become more Brexity because they are 2 years older.

    You might not care to admit it but demographics will undoubtedly help Remain if there is a second vote. Deaths will have come overwhelmingly from the most Brexit demographic and youngsters joining the register are likely to be overwhelmingly remain. I'm not sure how you can seriously argue otherwise.
    The whole electorate has had two more years to watch the EU in action. Some who previously voted remain will no doubt have misgivings about its behaviour.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 5,853

    The government has shown it does not have the necessary will and numbers to govern and parliament has shown it does not have the numbers to act decisively (except maybe for Norway?)

    Can’t belive I’m saying this but it’s time for a GE.

    The Norway Debate is one of the Parliamentary moments in the 20th Century that is most often positively referred to as a moment when the Commons was at the centre of the central political question of the day.

    Are we building up to another Norway Debate for the 21st Century?

    It has the potential to shape the coming century for Britain.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 18,088
    IanB2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    alex. said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris in full on cake and unicorns mode. Get rid of backstop and keep half the money. The EU will fold under such a scenario.

    Hold off half the money that we’re committed to pay at a rate of about £1b a year over 40 years?

    Don't ask me. I am trying hard to follow. Logic, along with answering hostile questions, are not 2 of BoJos strong points.
    Watching this speech you can see what a disaster he would be as PM. He has looked better on smaller stages where he isn't open to much challenge.
    You mean like filing a news piece (very late) from Brussels and then heading to the pub?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 48,598

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    More blue on blue. Have the whips told loyalists to attack Boris as he speaks?

    No, pretty much everyone thinks Boris is a ****.
    And yet still 9 on BF.
    Tory MPs control the first part of the process.

    Boris Johnson is unlikely to carry his immediate family.

    Ignore the ConHome polls, members don't get to choose who the final two are.

    Plus Boris the coward has a history of quitting when the going gets tough.
    Even Leadsom, IDS and Davis made the final 2 with MPs
    And, Boris carries a lot more baggage than they ever did.
    But has a lot more charisma and the support of the DUP
    How many votes do the DUP have in the MPs section of the Tory leadership election?
    The DUP determine who becomes PM at present but as I said Boris only needs 80 odd MPs to get to the final 2 and there are more thsn enough Brexiteers to get that.

    If May goes you likely get Boris. The only way to stop that is a Javid or Hunt coronation and the ERG would not allow that
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 48,635
    Think this is a shift, SNP coming out for straight up remain.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 48,598
    edited December 4

    Scott_P said:
    As I say, an exhausted-looking Boris (to me at least) seems almost resigned to the outcome now.
    The more BINO the Brexit ironically the better for Boris as he can then lead the Brexiteer backlash
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 815

    I don't mind the Norway option much - it works well enough for Norway! Thanks to Andy Cooke for his handy overview of it on the last thread. However, it preserves freedom of movement, and there's very strong evidence that FOM is the main thing that most Leavers were trying to escape. I can't see it standing up to serious scrutiny when people contemplate the potential backlash.

    FOM is potentially fixable, FSVO "fixable", along the lines of the IPPR's proposals: https://www.ippr.org/files/publications/pdf/free-movement-welfare_Nov2015.pdf
  • HYUFD said:

    I don't mind the Norway option much - it works well enough for Norway! Thanks to Andy Cooke for his handy overview of it on the last thread. However, it preserves freedom of movement, and there's very strong evidence that FOM is the main thing that most Leavers were trying to escape. I can't see it standing up to serious scrutiny when people contemplate the potential backlash.

    Boris is certainly toast in the Parliamentary party in terms of getting to the last 2. But if there's a split, I wonder if he might lead the Brexiteers - they would have a decent chance with him as he has universal recognition and a significant following. Compared with Farage, who IMO would not top 15%, he'd be a better bet to actually win seats.

    There are at least 80 Tory MPs who are staunch Brexiteers, if they get behind Boris they alone will ensure he gets to the final 2
    He looked a defeated man tonight with zest gone and under attack from fellow conservatives

    Game over and even he knows it.

    If he was even given a chance there would be defections. He is over
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 130
    I recognise this is ancient history by now, but can I offer a few thoughts on the AG's opinion this morning?

    1) Obviously it's not binding on the CJEU, but...
    2) Nobody really expected any sensible court to declare that a notice given under a treaty would be revocable unilaterally (if conditionally) where the treaty was silent on revocation;
    3) But I had it at evens (betting market size £0) that the CJEU would so declare. If you didn't, you weren't paying attention in your EU law classes. Costa v ENEL (1964), Commission v France, (1997) Council v Commission, Factortame; it's all been going one way since 1964 - more power to the ECJ/CJEU, more power to the Commission, bad luck if you're a member state.
    4) And the emphasis was on "(if conditionally)". The AG says that, a purported revocation of A50 would be binding on the Council if it were not an abusive practice, and not binding if it were abusive.
    5) The decision, therefore, is now not the UK's. It is the ECJ's.
    6) And the decision itself if a pretty poor piece of jurisprudence. It makes French judgments look good. The AG said that:
    6.1) if A50 notice is unilateral, it is 'logical' that revocation is unilateral. Obviously, that's nonsense. There's no such logical step and a moment's thought will confirm this.
    6.2) the Vienna Convention on treaties is a precedent, but the EU isn't a party and the TEU expressly excludes international law such as this. I could go on but I won't as I'm losing interest myself.
    7) The Commission (once) and the EU parliament (at least thrice) have made their view clear that A50 isn't revocable. The deal is finalised, the balance of interests shifts, and all of a sudden the AG of the CJEU says the opposite; it is revocable. I'm sure it's just a coincidence, of course. The CJEU wouldn't be making decisions primarily in the interests of the EU institutions against the interests of Member States, would it?

    Anyway, look forward to reading the other AG's full Brexit advice tomorrow...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 40,500
    Pulpstar said:

    Think this is a shift, SNP coming out for straight up remain.

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 9,754

    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    Johnson bumbling around now. Quite the busted flush these days.

    That's future PM Johnson, thank you.

    Actually I have no idea who the Tories could possibly choose. I've no doubt Hunt and Javid will twist to positions more pleasing to the membership once May goes next week, but the true believers still won't buy anything from them, Johnson seems to be very disliked by MPs, strong remainers are right out, so who? Contemptuous Cox? Come on.
    Liddington if May leaves immediately and I suspect Gove when the party election finishes...
    Liddington is 65 on BF
    Lidington is 100/1 with Betfred.
This discussion has been closed.