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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » French toast – Bread and butter issues burn Macron

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited December 5 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » French toast – Bread and butter issues burn Macron

Aux armes citoyens! or at least put on your yellow hi-vis. In the last month, 50 years after the explosion of 1968, the French are once again taking to the streets.  Whereas Mai 68 was a cocktail of demands for a freer more open society, Decembre 18 is more a cry of anger about a stagnant standard of living.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 5,692
    First out the door in Brexit Britain
  • Yay a thread where I can mock the French.

    Thanks Brookie.

  • I said it earlier, the deal might just get passed.

  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 5,692
    edited December 5
    FPT:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:


    UKIP or a Farage alternative will shoot up in the polls if free movement is kept, the only reason they have fallen since 2015 is both the Tories and Labour promised to leave the single market and end free movement and the Tories in particular focused higher border controls and more skills based immigration

    If net European migration continues to trend towards zero it will lose all salience and no-one will be bothered by the principle. It was only in the context of high immigration overall that it became a political football.
    Net European migration has been dropping because people thought we were leaving the EU. If we decide not to it will quickly reverse again.
    OTOH, the meme that the UK is a nasty intolerant place for EU citizens may continue to have an effect for years to come. It does not matter if it is true or not, so long as it exists and is believed.
    Of course it matters if it is true or not. It makes addressing the meme very different.
    Perception is more important than fact. Thus Brexit ;)
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 3,243
    Dear Voters,

    Parliament has considered the recent opinion proffered by the electorate that the UK should leave the EU, and regrettably has found that opinion to be rabid, pig-ignorant and stultifyingly ill-informed.

    As such, we will not be bringing forward legislation to enact this terrible opinion at this time.

    Parliament thanks you for the opportunity to be involved in your poorly thought out opinions, and hopes you will consider us again next time you need somebody to point out when you're being massive idiots.

    Kindest Regards,

    Parliament
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 3,243
    edited December 5
    This chart is the chart that shows why May cannot convince anybody to support her deal.

    image
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,183
    edited December 5

    I said it earlier, the deal might just get passed.

    I can't see it. 10 DUP votes seem to be lost without hope of recovery or reconciliation, and is it 65 or so declared non-supporters of the deal on the Tory backbenches (and I would guesstimate another 2-3 ministerial resignations to vote against, before the big vote)
    So who will tell everyone that they have changed their mind, are now backing the PM? And once you've got that first name, who are the other 60 who will need to do so? That's how little wriggle room the PM has.

    EDIT: Actually one non-Tory who's come out helpfully this week is Lady Sylvia Hernon. And Ian Austin has made supportive noises on the Labour side. So in fairness, I should only ask you to give 58 Tory MPs who will say they have changed their mind, not 60.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 22,120
    Though very unpopular, Emmanuel Macron still manages to be regarded as preferable to the alternatives:

  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 1,317

    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr B2,

    Your enthusiasms for referendums does you credit. On the EU, we must have a referendum if public opinion changes? If public opinion (based on any opinion poll) switches back and forth as it may well do, that means another referendum each time, surely? Or is only until you get the result you want?



    If we escape from this train of horrors, I very much doubt people will want to go through it all over again. If they do, so be it.
    Most likely, we continue to be increasingly unhappy members of the EU, continually complaining about the direction of travel.
    Yep. This is the Remainer delusion. That if we vote to cancel Brexit then everything will not just go back to the way it was but will be 'settled'. It really is amazing how they can kid themselves about this.
    Opinions of Leave voters are I think far more hostile to the EU now than they were two years ago as a consequence of the way the EU has conducted itself. Some may have come around to the view that for now it might be better to stay, given that the UK government's abject approach to negotiation offers only a settlement that amounts to national humiliation. But they do so on sufferance and that means that nothing is settled.

    There will be a fourth "Peoples' Vote" in the not too distant future (after 1975, 2016 and no doubt 2019). If the vote is then for Leave and the UK is led by a Government with a working majority and which supports that course resolutely and wholeheartedly, who the EU knows will be willing to walk away from negotiations, then the EU will be in deep trouble.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 48,635
    edited December 5
    Dear Voters,

    Parliament has considered the recent opinion proffered by the electorate that the UK should leave the EU, and regrettably has found that we can't do this without creating either a constitutional, legal or economic calamity.

    As such, we're stuck and need you to get us out of this mess.

    Parliament invites you to vote UKIP, neo-SDP or EDL at the next election.

    Kindest Regards,

    Parliament

  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 3,243
    tpfkar said:

    I said it earlier, the deal might just get passed.

    I can't see it. 10 DUP votes seem to be lost without hope of recovery or reconciliation, and is it 65 or so declared non-supporters of the deal on the Tory backbenches (and I would guesstimate another 2-3 ministerial resignations to vote against, before the big vote)
    So who will tell everyone that they have changed their mind, are now backing the PM? And once you've got that first name, who are the other 60 who will need to do so? That's how little wriggle room the PM has.
    Buzzfeed has the total at 103 Tory backbenchers declared against.

    If thirty more are still considering (though I suspect the full unvarnished horror of the legal advice might end that consideration), we could be looking at, ooh, 120 or more Tories against?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 3,243
    Pulpstar said:

    Dear Voters,

    As such, we're stuck and need you to get us out of this mess.

    Parliament invites you to vote UKIP, neo-SDP or EDL at the next election.

    Parliament invites you, by the nature of FPTP, to split the Tory vote and elect a Corbyn-Remain landslide.

    Parliament thanks you for your selfless wasting of your vote.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 36,855

    Scott_P said:

    kinabalu said:

    Public vote on big turnout in 2016 to leave the EU.

    Pro Remain HoC refuses to implement and asks the public to vote again.

    They didn't "refuse to implement"

    They spent 2 years of blood and treasure and couldn't get it done
    Rubbish. The House has been opposed to Brexit from the start. This is just the natural conclusion of their plan to derail it.
    Good
    Because you perceive no downsides. but brexit reflected a view it didn't create it. The problems remain. Ultras who only care about their ideal outcome are the same no matter which side they are on - reckless.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 16,122
    Pulpstar said:

    Dear Voters,

    Parliament has considered the recent opinion proffered by the electorate that the UK should leave the EU, and regrettably has found that we can't do this without creating either a constitutional, legal or economic calamity.

    As such, we're stuck and need you to get us out of this mess.

    Parliament invites you to vote UKIP, neo-SDP or EDL at the next election.

    Kindest Regards,

    Parliament



    Sadly there will be very large numbers who will take them up on that offer or will not bother to vote at all. That is what the Remainers will have done. They will have made extremism acceptable and democracy a dirty word.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 48,635
    edited December 5

    Pulpstar said:

    Dear Voters,

    As such, we're stuck and need you to get us out of this mess.

    Parliament invites you to vote UKIP, neo-SDP or EDL at the next election.

    Parliament invites you, by the nature of FPTP, to split the Tory vote and elect a Corbyn-Remain landslide.

    Parliament thanks you for your selfless wasting of your vote.
    Next elections are the Euros. I fully intend to vote for whichever loons look best placed to elect MEPs on the East Mids ballot, being d'Hondt your vote counts.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 1,317

    This chart is the chart that shows why May cannot convince anybody to support her deal.

    image

    Interesting. There has been a shift towards Remain coinciding with a revelation of the lousy humiliating settlement that this Government says is the only deal in town. But the fact that people think that the Government could have done a lot better suggests that the shift in opinion is for the present only, and that people would vote again for Brexit if they felt that they could rely on a Government to do better next time.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 31,449
    Macron appears to be surrendering any sensible reforms.

    Fuel tax suspended, today talk of u-turn in recent tax changes. Is It possible to reform France when they even go nuts over totally radical way out there proposal of considering academic achievement when selecting admissions to massively oversubscribed uni courses.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 40,500

    Sadly there will be very large numbers who will take them up on that offer or will not bother to vote at all. That is what the Remainers will have done. They will have made extremism acceptable and democracy a dirty word.

    This is what Brexit has done.

    You won.

    Suck it up.

    It will never be the fault of those who warned against it, campaigned against it, or voted against it.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 22,120
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Dear Voters,

    As such, we're stuck and need you to get us out of this mess.

    Parliament invites you to vote UKIP, neo-SDP or EDL at the next election.

    Parliament invites you, by the nature of FPTP, to split the Tory vote and elect a Corbyn-Remain landslide.

    Parliament thanks you for your selfless wasting of your vote.
    Next elections are the Euros. I fully intend to vote for whichever loons look best placed to elect MEPs on the East Mids ballot, being d'Hondt your vote counts.
    Who are the non-loons?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 3,243
    edited December 5
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Dear Voters,

    As such, we're stuck and need you to get us out of this mess.

    Parliament invites you to vote UKIP, neo-SDP or EDL at the next election.

    Parliament invites you, by the nature of FPTP, to split the Tory vote and elect a Corbyn-Remain landslide.

    Parliament thanks you for your selfless wasting of your vote.
    Next elections are the Euros. I fully intend to vote for whichever loons look best placed to elect MEPs on the East Mids ballot.
    You want loons? Have we got Momentum for you.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 18,347
    edited December 5

    Though very unpopular, Emmanuel Macron still manages to be regarded as preferable to the alternatives:

    Both France and Germany are going through a poltical crisis of confidence. The voters are restless and the politicians dont know what to do.

    Macron is a bit like Mrs May its only the lack of decent alternative making him credible. Today he has had a further climbdown but Paris looks as if its back to the barricades this Saturday
    The sans culottes can smell fear and will pile of the pressure.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 8,699

    This chart is the chart that shows why May cannot convince anybody to support her deal.

    image

    Interesting. There has been a shift towards Remain coinciding with a revelation of the lousy humiliating settlement that this Government says is the only deal in town. But the fact that people think that the Government could have done a lot better suggests that the shift in opinion is for the present only, and that people would vote again for Brexit if they felt that they could rely on a Government to do better next time.
    The two statements in the question are not strict alternatives.

    It is easily possible to believe the government could have negotiated better, but that we can't now negotiate better.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 23,582
    edited December 5


    Sadly there will be very large numbers who will take them up on that offer or will not bother to vote at all. That is what the Remainers will have done. They will have made extremism acceptable and democracy a dirty word.

    Your friend Richard North has started talking about bombmaking. You were always extremists.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 48,635

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Dear Voters,

    As such, we're stuck and need you to get us out of this mess.

    Parliament invites you to vote UKIP, neo-SDP or EDL at the next election.

    Parliament invites you, by the nature of FPTP, to split the Tory vote and elect a Corbyn-Remain landslide.

    Parliament thanks you for your selfless wasting of your vote.
    Next elections are the Euros. I fully intend to vote for whichever loons look best placed to elect MEPs on the East Mids ballot, being d'Hondt your vote counts.
    Who are the non-loons?
    Lib Dems and the non ERG wing of the Tories.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 5,692
    edited December 5
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    kinabalu said:

    Public vote on big turnout in 2016 to leave the EU.

    Pro Remain HoC refuses to implement and asks the public to vote again.

    They didn't "refuse to implement"

    They spent 2 years of blood and treasure and couldn't get it done
    Rubbish. The House has been opposed to Brexit from the start. This is just the natural conclusion of their plan to derail it.
    Good
    Because you perceive no downsides. but brexit reflected a view it didn't create it. The problems remain. Ultras who only care about their ideal outcome are the same no matter which side they are on - reckless.
    Actually, that was to give Richard something to fulminate against :D

    Brexit is permanently damaging whether we stay or go. It has no upsides at all.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,148

    Dear Voters,

    Parliament has considered the recent opinion proffered by the electorate that the UK should leave the EU, and regrettably has found that opinion to be rabid, pig-ignorant and stultifyingly ill-informed.

    As such, we will not be bringing forward legislation to enact this terrible opinion at this time.

    Parliament thanks you for the opportunity to be involved in your poorly thought out opinions, and hopes you will consider us again next time you need somebody to point out when you're being massive idiots.

    Kindest Regards,

    Parliament

    Dear Parliament,

    You show contempt for your bosses. You're fired.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 5,692

    Both France and Germany are going through a poltical crisis of confidence. The voters are restless and the politicians dont know what to do.

    Lucky for us we have professional politicians, objective, calm under pressure and putting the National Interest ahead of party advantage.





    image
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 9,754

    Macron appears to be surrendering any sensible reforms.

    Fuel tax suspended, today talk of u-turn in recent tax changes. Is It possible to reform France when they even go nuts over totally radical way out there proposal of considering academic achievement when selecting admissions to massively oversubscribed uni courses.

    On universities, we should move to a lottery system. It would save academics a lot of time on deeply flawed interviews, and would remove biases on grounds of sex, race, religion as well as the old school tie. And because a lottery could be run quickly by computer, it could wait for A-level results so there is your academic achievement, to be used primarily to set minimum standards and not to ration places.

    That aside, for decades now we've been sneering at the unreformed French but for all they've done things differently from us, the net result is that France and the UK have similarly sized economies, ahead of Italy but behind Germany.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 8,699

    I said it earlier, the deal might just get passed.

    To avoid needing significant (>10) Labour support, May needs to get the ERG wing down to <10.

    I would say it was a 25/1 shot...
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 16,122


    Sadly there will be very large numbers who will take them up on that offer or will not bother to vote at all. That is what the Remainers will have done. They will have made extremism acceptable and democracy a dirty word.

    Your friend Richard North has started talking about bombmaking. You were always extremists.

    Saying that something is likely and wanting it to happen are two different things.

    Or are you and all those who talked about a renewal of the troubles in NI if there was a hard border to be considered fellow travellers with the IRA?

    Actually of course since the former leaders of the IRA were opposed to Brexit I suppose they are your fellow travellers to some extent.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,183
    Discussed on the previous thread - I don't think many posters were quite sure how it would work either, other than as a sop for backbenchers looking for a reason to approve the deal.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 48,635
    It essentially means indefinite transition fromce before a FTA.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 8,699
    Pulpstar said:

    It essentially means indefinite transition fromce before a FTA.
    "Essentially" is doing a lot of work there.

    It's like a last ditch extension to the transition period, but without any mechanism to actually achieve it.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 16,122
    Scott_P said:

    Sadly there will be very large numbers who will take them up on that offer or will not bother to vote at all. That is what the Remainers will have done. They will have made extremism acceptable and democracy a dirty word.

    This is what Brexit has done.

    You won.

    Suck it up.

    It will never be the fault of those who warned against it, campaigned against it, or voted against it.
    It is entirely your fault. It is you who have lied and dissembled about the consequences of Brexit from day 1. And now you want to make sure it doesn't happen so you can't be proved wrong.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 31,449
    edited December 5

    Macron appears to be surrendering any sensible reforms.

    Fuel tax suspended, today talk of u-turn in recent tax changes. Is It possible to reform France when they even go nuts over totally radical way out there proposal of considering academic achievement when selecting admissions to massively oversubscribed uni courses.

    On universities, we should move to a lottery system. It would save academics a lot of time on deeply flawed interviews, and would remove biases on grounds of sex, race, religion as well as the old school tie. And because a lottery could be run quickly by computer, it could wait for A-level results so there is your academic achievement, to be used primarily to set minimum standards and not to ration places.

    That aside, for decades now we've been sneering at the unreformed French but for all they've done things differently from us, the net result is that France and the UK have similarly sized economies, ahead of Italy but behind Germany.
    I have argued for years that the UK should move to post results admissions. That in itself would level the playing field hugely as we would get away from this nonsense of predicted grades.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 18,347

    Both France and Germany are going through a poltical crisis of confidence. The voters are restless and the politicians dont know what to do.

    Lucky for us we have professional politicians, objective, calm under pressure and putting the National Interest ahead of party advantage.





    image
    Ours are just as bad and at some point will pay the price.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 5,692


    Sadly there will be very large numbers who will take them up on that offer or will not bother to vote at all. That is what the Remainers will have done. They will have made extremism acceptable and democracy a dirty word.

    Your friend Richard North has started talking about bombmaking. You were always extremists.

    twitter.com/richardaenorth/status/1068509802777595904?s=21
    Who is Richard North?
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 5,692

    Both France and Germany are going through a poltical crisis of confidence. The voters are restless and the politicians dont know what to do.

    Lucky for us we have professional politicians, objective, calm under pressure and putting the National Interest ahead of party advantage.
    Ours are just as bad and at some point will pay the price.
    Sooner than Macron, methinks ;)
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 4,686
    Today's YouGov has UKIP back down at 4% - suggests no groundswell of anger re Brexit not being delivered "properly".

    PMQs also telling - Corbyn ignores Brexit - whatever the anoraks might think if we do have a GE Lab will ensure Brexit only plays a relatively small part.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 18,347
    edited December 5

    Both France and Germany are going through a poltical crisis of confidence. The voters are restless and the politicians dont know what to do.

    Lucky for us we have professional politicians, objective, calm under pressure and putting the National Interest ahead of party advantage.
    Ours are just as bad and at some point will pay the price.
    Sooner than Macron, methinks ;)
    No Macron is fast being neutered, Merkel is a lame duck. Currently nobody is steering the good ship Europe.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 5,692

    Scott_P said:

    Sadly there will be very large numbers who will take them up on that offer or will not bother to vote at all. That is what the Remainers will have done. They will have made extremism acceptable and democracy a dirty word.

    This is what Brexit has done.

    You won.

    Suck it up.

    It will never be the fault of those who warned against it, campaigned against it, or voted against it.
    It is entirely your fault. It is you who have lied and dissembled about the consequences of Brexit from day 1. And now you want to make sure it doesn't happen so you can't be proved wrong.
    That is an astonishing piece of self-delusion and it is going to force me to post the laughing seal image again (and I save that for special occasions)

    image
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 23,921
    edited December 5
    edit
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 8,775

    Yay a thread where I can mock the French.

    Thanks Brookie.

    A foolish hope - as you can see, we're way too busy mocking each other.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 5,692
    Nigelb said:

    Yay a thread where I can mock the French.

    Thanks Brookie.

    A foolish hope - as you can see, we're way too busy mocking each other.
    Please do not make me post the laughing seal three times in one day!!!!!!!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 23,582


    Sadly there will be very large numbers who will take them up on that offer or will not bother to vote at all. That is what the Remainers will have done. They will have made extremism acceptable and democracy a dirty word.

    Your friend Richard North has started talking about bombmaking. You were always extremists.

    twitter.com/richardaenorth/status/1068509802777595904?s=21
    Who is Richard North?
    He wrote a book with Christopher Booker called The Great Deception which was responsible for a lot of the tropes about how Heath didn't tell people the truth when we joined.
  • Nigelb said:

    Yay a thread where I can mock the French.

    Thanks Brookie.

    A foolish hope - as you can see, we're way too busy mocking each other.
    That’s the biggest tragedy about Brexit, the French are laughing at us.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 34,780
    I take it nothing new was learnt with the release of the legal advice?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 6,657
    MikeL said:

    Today's YouGov has UKIP back down at 4% - suggests no groundswell of anger re Brexit not being delivered "properly".

    PMQs also telling - Corbyn ignores Brexit - whatever the anoraks might think if we do have a GE Lab will ensure Brexit only plays a relatively small part.

    Indeed thats the tradegy of Brexit. i'll let Labour have a free pass at power because they aren't the Tories in this area.
  • BromBrom Posts: 1,108

    Nigelb said:

    Yay a thread where I can mock the French.

    Thanks Brookie.

    A foolish hope - as you can see, we're way too busy mocking each other.
    That’s the biggest tragedy about Brexit, the French are laughing at us.
    Arguably the other way round in recent weeks. It's not like our public are rioting...yet
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,148
    AndyJS said:

    More than 6,000 US service veterans have killed themselves each year since 2008, according to the VA data. Veteran suicide rates increased 25.9% between 2005 and 2016, as suicide rates in the overall US population also increased.

    The suicide rate was 1.5 times greater for veterans than for adults who never served in the military, even after adjusting for age and gender.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/sep/26/suicide-rate-young-us-veterans-jumps
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 12,321

    Scott_P said:

    Sadly there will be very large numbers who will take them up on that offer or will not bother to vote at all. That is what the Remainers will have done. They will have made extremism acceptable and democracy a dirty word.

    This is what Brexit has done.

    You won.

    Suck it up.

    It will never be the fault of those who warned against it, campaigned against it, or voted against it.
    It is entirely your fault. It is you who have lied and dissembled about the consequences of Brexit from day 1. And now you want to make sure it doesn't happen so you can't be proved wrong.
    Lol. Because we've all been impressed with the thoughtful, co-ordinated and systematic way in which the leading Brexiters have set about progressing their vision since June 2016.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 18,347

    Nigelb said:

    Yay a thread where I can mock the French.

    Thanks Brookie.

    A foolish hope - as you can see, we're way too busy mocking each other.
    That’s the biggest tragedy about Brexit, the French are laughing at us.
    Nah theyre too busy trashing their own country.

    Brooke Jr currently works in Paris and says the area around his office was like a war zone.

  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,148
    MikeL said:

    Today's YouGov has UKIP back down at 4% - suggests no groundswell of anger re Brexit not being delivered "properly".

    PMQs also telling - Corbyn ignores Brexit - whatever the anoraks might think if we do have a GE Lab will ensure Brexit only plays a relatively small part.

    UKIP support suffering from the poor leadership and resignations.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,148

    Nigelb said:

    Yay a thread where I can mock the French.

    Thanks Brookie.

    A foolish hope - as you can see, we're way too busy mocking each other.
    That’s the biggest tragedy about Brexit, the French are laughing at us.
    Nah theyre too busy trashing their own country.

    Brooke Jr currently works in Paris and says the area around his office was like a war zone.

    Does Brooke jr wear a yellow vest?
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 1,885
    edited December 5

    Pulpstar said:

    Dear Voters,

    Parliament has considered the recent opinion proffered by the electorate that the UK should leave the EU, and regrettably has found that we can't do this without creating either a constitutional, legal or economic calamity.

    As such, we're stuck and need you to get us out of this mess.

    Parliament invites you to vote UKIP, neo-SDP or EDL at the next election.

    Kindest Regards,

    Parliament


    Sadly there will be very large numbers who will take them up on that offer or will not bother to vote at all. That is what the Remainers will have done. They will have made extremism acceptable and democracy a dirty word.
    The politician who has benefitted the most from Brexit is Jeremy Corbyn. Before the referendum he was a derided no-hoper, laughed at by all who considered themselves serious players. Now his ascension to Downing Street is widely seen as inevitable.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 18,347

    MikeL said:

    Today's YouGov has UKIP back down at 4% - suggests no groundswell of anger re Brexit not being delivered "properly".

    PMQs also telling - Corbyn ignores Brexit - whatever the anoraks might think if we do have a GE Lab will ensure Brexit only plays a relatively small part.

    UKIP support suffering from the poor leadership and resignations.
    UKIP will die and be replaced by a wider based alternative
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 40,500

    It is entirely your fault.

    Did you hit your head?

    Are you on psychotropic medication?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 8,775
    RobD said:

    I take it nothing new was learnt with the release of the legal advice?

    We learned that we have an AG who can be tolerably honest.
    Which isn't the worst thing in the world.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 16,122

    Pulpstar said:

    Dear Voters,

    Parliament has considered the recent opinion proffered by the electorate that the UK should leave the EU, and regrettably has found that we can't do this without creating either a constitutional, legal or economic calamity.

    As such, we're stuck and need you to get us out of this mess.

    Parliament invites you to vote UKIP, neo-SDP or EDL at the next election.

    Kindest Regards,

    Parliament


    Sadly there will be very large numbers who will take them up on that offer or will not bother to vote at all. That is what the Remainers will have done. They will have made extremism acceptable and democracy a dirty word.
    The politician who has benefitted the most from Brexit is Jeremy Corbyn. Before the referendum he was a derided no-hoper, laughed at by all who considered themselves serious players. Now his ascension to Downing Street is widely seen as inevitable.
    Which kind of reinforces my point.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 18,347

    Nigelb said:

    Yay a thread where I can mock the French.

    Thanks Brookie.

    A foolish hope - as you can see, we're way too busy mocking each other.
    That’s the biggest tragedy about Brexit, the French are laughing at us.
    Nah theyre too busy trashing their own country.

    Brooke Jr currently works in Paris and says the area around his office was like a war zone.

    Does Brooke jr wear a yellow vest?
    he keeps one in reserve in case he meets protestots otherwise the CRS would kick the crap out of him. :-)
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 16,122
    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:

    Sadly there will be very large numbers who will take them up on that offer or will not bother to vote at all. That is what the Remainers will have done. They will have made extremism acceptable and democracy a dirty word.

    This is what Brexit has done.

    You won.

    Suck it up.

    It will never be the fault of those who warned against it, campaigned against it, or voted against it.
    It is entirely your fault. It is you who have lied and dissembled about the consequences of Brexit from day 1. And now you want to make sure it doesn't happen so you can't be proved wrong.
    Lol. Because we've all been impressed with the thoughtful, co-ordinated and systematic way in which the leading Brexiters have set about progressing their vision since June 2016.
    Given they were never in a position to do so I wonder why you are surprised about this.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,148
    RobD said:

    I take it nothing new was learnt with the release of the legal advice?

    Some say it is marginally worse than Cox admitted,
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 5,750
    notme said:
    The USA and UK are a little unusual in life expectancy trends. We have stalled or regressed, while our peers continue to improve.

    I am not surprised that US Veterans have a high rate of suicide. The combination of PTSD and knowledge of means, combined with loss of social support is a toxic one. I think our veterans get a poor deal too.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 48,635
    https://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=232984

    Hotspots for "People's vote" almost all very anti-Tory (Except Cambridge surrounds). Bristol West & Brighton Pavilion top areas.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 16,122
    RobD said:

    I take it nothing new was learnt with the release of the legal advice?

    Quite a lot I would suggest. It is certainly substantially worse than was being touted in the summary. Still better than Remain of course but a toss up with No Deal depending on how accurate the forecasts for both are.
  • MikeL said:

    Today's YouGov has UKIP back down at 4% - suggests no groundswell of anger re Brexit not being delivered "properly".

    PMQs also telling - Corbyn ignores Brexit - whatever the anoraks might think if we do have a GE Lab will ensure Brexit only plays a relatively small part.

    Indeed thats the tradegy of Brexit. i'll let Labour have a free pass at power because they aren't the Tories in this area.
    The double whammy is that with No Deal Corbyn won't have to worry about those pesky state aid rules.

    Leavers really are about to permanently ruin the legacy of Mrs Thatcher.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 18,347

    Pulpstar said:

    Dear Voters,

    Parliament has considered the recent opinion proffered by the electorate that the UK should leave the EU, and regrettably has found that we can't do this without creating either a constitutional, legal or economic calamity.

    As such, we're stuck and need you to get us out of this mess.

    Parliament invites you to vote UKIP, neo-SDP or EDL at the next election.

    Kindest Regards,

    Parliament


    Sadly there will be very large numbers who will take them up on that offer or will not bother to vote at all. That is what the Remainers will have done. They will have made extremism acceptable and democracy a dirty word.
    The politician who has benefitted the most from Brexit is Jeremy Corbyn. Before the referendum he was a derided no-hoper, laughed at by all who considered themselves serious players. Now his ascension to Downing Street is widely seen as inevitable.
    to his credit Corbyn has kept closer to voter concerns. The rest with their upper middle class angst fest have disappeared into a bubble of their own.
  • NotchNotch Posts: 145
    edited December 5
    According to the Independent, some who are discussing how to ensure that Sunday's pro-Leave anti-Deal march in London is a success are suggesting that participants wear yellow safety jackets. Continental influences, huh?

    It sounds as though every twit thinks of himself as a master strategist because Facebook allows him to scribble something on their wall. One difference between France and Britain is that in France drivers are obliged to carry hi-vis jackets in their cars, so the country is awash with them.

    But apparently a lot of coaches have been booked, so the protest is unlikely to be a small event that features only 20 or so tattooed men in their 40s whose longest usual "march" is from the betting shop to the pub.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 20,060
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 16,122

    Scott_P said:

    Sadly there will be very large numbers who will take them up on that offer or will not bother to vote at all. That is what the Remainers will have done. They will have made extremism acceptable and democracy a dirty word.

    This is what Brexit has done.

    You won.

    Suck it up.

    It will never be the fault of those who warned against it, campaigned against it, or voted against it.
    It is entirely your fault. It is you who have lied and dissembled about the consequences of Brexit from day 1. And now you want to make sure it doesn't happen so you can't be proved wrong.
    That is an astonishing piece of self-delusion and it is going to force me to post the laughing seal image again (and I save that for special occasions)

    image
    The delusion is all yours I am afraid. Of course whatever happens you will be fine in your bolthole.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 23,695
    Pulpstar said:

    Dear Voters,

    Parliament has considered the recent opinion proffered by the electorate that the UK should leave the EU, and regrettably has found that we can't do this without creating either a constitutional, legal or economic calamity.

    As such, we're stuck and need you to get us out of this mess.

    Parliament invites you to vote UKIP, neo-SDP or EDL at the next election.

    Kindest Regards,

    Parliament



    In the next Euro election, I'll vote for the looniest of the loons.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 20,060

    RobD said:

    I take it nothing new was learnt with the release of the legal advice?

    Some say it is marginally worse than Cox admitted,
    It just confirms very clearly that we can be stuck in limbo forever unless the EU agree a trade deal, how could that be bad for us? Hence them not wanting to publish.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 8,775

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:

    Sadly there will be very large numbers who will take them up on that offer or will not bother to vote at all. That is what the Remainers will have done. They will have made extremism acceptable and democracy a dirty word.

    This is what Brexit has done.

    You won.

    Suck it up.

    It will never be the fault of those who warned against it, campaigned against it, or voted against it.
    It is entirely your fault. It is you who have lied and dissembled about the consequences of Brexit from day 1. And now you want to make sure it doesn't happen so you can't be proved wrong.
    Lol. Because we've all been impressed with the thoughtful, co-ordinated and systematic way in which the leading Brexiters have set about progressing their vision since June 2016.
    Given they were never in a position to do so I wonder why you are surprised about this.
    IF that is true, it took an awfully long time for our erstwhile Brexit Secretary to realise as much.
    Or isn't he a true enough believer for you ?
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 1,062
    It's a cunning version of a unicorn: a future theoretical unicorn. Would probably be legally unworkable, and/or challenged at the time, but who cares. Provides an excuse for declared antis who want to change.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 5,692

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:

    Sadly there will be very large numbers who will take them up on that offer or will not bother to vote at all. That is what the Remainers will have done. They will have made extremism acceptable and democracy a dirty word.

    This is what Brexit has done.

    You won.

    Suck it up.

    It will never be the fault of those who warned against it, campaigned against it, or voted against it.
    It is entirely your fault. It is you who have lied and dissembled about the consequences of Brexit from day 1. And now you want to make sure it doesn't happen so you can't be proved wrong.
    Lol. Because we've all been impressed with the thoughtful, co-ordinated and systematic way in which the leading Brexiters have set about progressing their vision since June 2016.
    Given they were never in a position to do so I wonder why you are surprised about this.
    They were in the Cabinet. Some where even holders of Great Offices of State. At least, the ones who did not run away were....
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 1,390
    edited December 5
    Pulpstar said:

    https://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=232984

    Hotspots for "People's vote" almost all very anti-Tory (Except Cambridge surrounds). Bristol West & Brighton Pavilion top areas.

    Its a very useful map to keep if you want to easily locate Bristol, Edinburgh Oxford and Cambridge! I see only 59 people have signed in Mike Gapes working class diverse Ilford South seat compared to 600-700 in many more prosperous inner London seats.

    Perhaps it should be renamed the 'posh people's vote' or 'the 'people in areas where average house prices exceed £500k' vote' or the 'I love my free Waitrose daily coffee people's vote'
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 23,582
    Andrew said:

    It's a cunning version of a unicorn: a future theoretical unicorn. Would probably be legally unworkable, and/or challenged at the time, but who cares. Provides an excuse for declared antis who want to change.
    I think the idea would be to give parliament the choice between extending transition and falling into the backstop. It's purely a cosmetic concession.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 23,695

    MikeL said:

    Today's YouGov has UKIP back down at 4% - suggests no groundswell of anger re Brexit not being delivered "properly".

    PMQs also telling - Corbyn ignores Brexit - whatever the anoraks might think if we do have a GE Lab will ensure Brexit only plays a relatively small part.

    Indeed thats the tradegy of Brexit. i'll let Labour have a free pass at power because they aren't the Tories in this area.
    The double whammy is that with No Deal Corbyn won't have to worry about those pesky state aid rules.

    Leavers really are about to permanently ruin the legacy of Mrs Thatcher.
    I think it's more likely we get Corbyn & Remain, with Corbyn blaming the Conservatives for frustrating Brexit.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 16,122
    edited December 5
    Scott_P said:
    Wow. It is quite remarkable how many factual inaccuracies and outright lies he has managed to pack into such a short piece. That is the best you can come up with?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 40,500

    Given they were never in a position to do so I wonder why you are surprised about this.

    Why did every one of them not resign or write a letter the moment they realised this?

    Or are you still talking bollocks...
  • An alumnus of the University of Cambridge may have just solved the mystery of dark matter.

    https://news.sky.com/story/mystery-of-dark-matter-may-have-been-solved-by-oxford-scientists-11572089
  • Sean_F said:

    MikeL said:

    Today's YouGov has UKIP back down at 4% - suggests no groundswell of anger re Brexit not being delivered "properly".

    PMQs also telling - Corbyn ignores Brexit - whatever the anoraks might think if we do have a GE Lab will ensure Brexit only plays a relatively small part.

    Indeed thats the tradegy of Brexit. i'll let Labour have a free pass at power because they aren't the Tories in this area.
    The double whammy is that with No Deal Corbyn won't have to worry about those pesky state aid rules.

    Leavers really are about to permanently ruin the legacy of Mrs Thatcher.
    I think it's more likely we get Corbyn & Remain, with Corbyn blaming the Conservatives for frustrating Brexit.
    Nah, No Deal Brexit and Corbyn is what is more likely.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 8,775
    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    I take it nothing new was learnt with the release of the legal advice?

    Some say it is marginally worse than Cox admitted,
    It just confirms very clearly that we can be stuck in limbo forever unless the EU agree a trade deal, how could that be bad for us? Hence them not wanting to publish.
    The solution to that hypothetical is quite simple - were it ever to happen, a no deal status remains available to us at the time of our choosing. 'Forever' is mere rhetoric.

    You might not like May's deal.
    I don't either - but as a democrat, I would be prepared grudgingly to accept it as a consequence of the Brexit vote.

    What I will not accept is being filibustered into an unprepared no deal state come next March.
  • Like the French the Germans are laughing at us as well.

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 16,122
    Scott_P said:

    Given they were never in a position to do so I wonder why you are surprised about this.

    Why did every one of them not resign or write a letter the moment they realised this?

    Or are you still talking bollocks...
    Maybe because they thought they could try and make things better or maybe because they are just self serving politicians. It doesn't change the basic fact though.

  • TheoTheo Posts: 325
    Scott_P said:
    If you believe in economic forecasting models that have a terrible predictive history, don't account for different profiles of migration types, future dislocations from Euro problems or political ramifications.
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325

    Scott_P said:
    Wow. It is quite remarkable how many factual inaccuracies and outright lies he has managed to pack into such a short piece. That is the best you can come up with?
    What is incorrect?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 48,635
    brendan16 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    https://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=232984

    Hotspots for "People's vote" almost all very anti-Tory (Except Cambridge surrounds). Bristol West & Brighton Pavilion top areas.

    Its a very useful map to keep if you want to easily locate Bristol, Edinburgh Oxford and Cambridge!
    Bath, Oxford, Cambridge, Sheffield, Manchester, York and Brighton quickly identifiable.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 5,692

    An alumnus of the University of Cambridge may have just solved the mystery of dark matter.

    https://news.sky.com/story/mystery-of-dark-matter-may-have-been-solved-by-oxford-scientists-11572089

    Excellent. I hope that they set up one of the Citizen Science websites to process data for it. I have been involved with those in the past and there has been some really good results from them and I would not mind contributing time to do more analyses.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 18,347

    Like the French the Germans are laughing at us as well.

    Oh really Mr Eagles, the Jerries are diverting their eyes from their own problems. Reading the German press each day always cheers me up.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 23,695
    Theo said:

    Scott_P said:
    If you believe in economic forecasting models that have a terrible predictive history, don't account for different profiles of migration types, future dislocations from Euro problems or political ramifications.
    Public borrowing has actually dropped quite sharply (and in line with pre-Referendum forecasts) since June 2016.
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325
    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:

    Sadly there will be very large numbers who will take them up on that offer or will not bother to vote at all. That is what the Remainers will have done. They will have made extremism acceptable and democracy a dirty word.

    This is what Brexit has done.

    You won.

    Suck it up.

    It will never be the fault of those who warned against it, campaigned against it, or voted against it.
    It is entirely your fault. It is you who have lied and dissembled about the consequences of Brexit from day 1. And now you want to make sure it doesn't happen so you can't be proved wrong.
    Lol. Because we've all been impressed with the thoughtful, co-ordinated and systematic way in which the leading Brexiters have set about progressing their vision since June 2016.
    A Brexit deal is on the table. If Remainers vote it down, that will be your side's action that you are responsible for.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,183

    Like the French the Germans are laughing at us as well.

    Bit unfair of them to blame the Lords for all our problems?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 18,347

    An alumnus of the University of Cambridge may have just solved the mystery of dark matter.

    https://news.sky.com/story/mystery-of-dark-matter-may-have-been-solved-by-oxford-scientists-11572089

    Excellent. I hope that they set up one of the Citizen Science websites to process data for it. I have been involved with those in the past and there has been some really good results from them and I would not mind contributing time to do more analyses.
    if theyre wrong will you be sending them a picture of a seal ?
This discussion has been closed.