So the vote would be for Remain, or a deal which parliment has already rejected, and logically would do so again??
I can see why people think it's a stich up.
Which is why I say me must Leave with No Deal if Parliament rejects Mrs May's deal.
Remain made it very clear that No Deal was a risk of voting Leave.
And yet the dishonestvotecampaign say that no one knew it. Funny that. Not really sure why they are so certain this time people will hear all that is said.
I know, there's plenty of polling showing Leave voters are prepared to take an economic hit which means a close family member/friend losing their job.
As I said on Sunday I'm not a fan of another referendum until after we've left.
What would be unfair about a ranked choice referendum vote which included no deal ?
In which case, frankly a second referendum is a smokescreen. If MPs would never vote for No-deal, and reject May's deal, then the only option is remain.
If MPs reject May's deal, then what would be the point of offering it in a referendum?
Quite. But a democratic smokescreen is what MPs want. They have the power to remain if that is what they want, and the majority of them very clearly do (and should have not triggered A50 then, even at the cost of their careers if they felt that strongly about it), but it's all very well talking about the will of the people changing but at the moment it is just polling, and we know that is not always on the money. Unless they are going to be honest and just say 'We, your MPs, are not going to do this because it is wrong' which most are not willing to do, they need cover for the u-turn from their manifestos.
Hence a vote as stacked to one side as they can. HYUFD is still a believer the deal would win against Remain, but with no political support for it(how many in the Cabinet and Tory loyalists will no longer back it after it loses next week?) it's a good foil against the glory that is remain.
The ultras in remain are now driving things just as ultras in leave were previously. It doesn't matter what the impacts might be, it will all work out with no problems, so long as the right decision is made. And they are totally different to Brexit ultras of course.
Very good post. There's an argument for voting No Deal to punish the government and parliament for not doing their job properly the first time round. It's a safe enough option because the cosseted dears would never enact a true no deal.
So the vote would be for Remain, or a deal which parliment has already rejected, and logically would do so again??
I can see why people think it's a stich up.
Which is why I say me must Leave with No Deal if Parliament rejects Mrs May's deal.
Remain made it very clear that No Deal was a risk of voting Leave.
And yet the dishonestvotecampaign say that no one knew it. Funny that. Not really sure why they are so certain this time people will hear all that is said.
I know, there's plenty of polling showing Leave voters are prepared to take an economic hit which means a close family member/friend losing their job.
As I said on Sunday I'm not a fan of another referendum until after we've left.
What would be unfair about a ranked choice referendum vote which included no deal ?
That would be fair, but while some MPs support it, the vast majority will not.
“Privy Council terms” is the full advice (not redacted) being released to privy council members (a lot of senior MPs) but with them being enjoined to keep it confidential on the pain of their tongue being torn out and lightly broiled in the juice of their spleen or some such evocative deterrent
If there had been confidential or national security concerns in the advice (which Leadsom hinted there might be, but actually it was bollocks) what can happen is that the Prime Minister would present the full advice to party leaders under privy council terms, and they will jointly agree to a redacted text for release.
Of course in this case there was no need for that because Andrea Leadsom is an idiot who no more understands how confidentiality works than she does anything else she sets her mind to.
"She should literally find a sword and throw herself on it. Let’s just remember the Norwegians executed Quisling for his collaboration with the forces of German lead European Subjugation"
I've just seen this comment on Facebook. I imagine you can guess who "she" is.
And people think passing this deal will subdue extremism and bring the country together? They are deluding themselves.
Social media is full of Russian trolls. Once we bring migration under control, sign a couple of trade deals and there are no more crazy ECJ decisions affecting us on votes for prisoners etc, the extremists will struggle to gain traction.
Yet more lies. The ECJ said it's lawful to deny the vote to prisoners. It's the ECHR that said otherwise, and the Brexit deal binds us to the ECHR.
I meant to say ECHR - a momentary slip up. But you are lying. There is no ECHR binding in the agreement.
Look at paragraph 7 of the political declaration:
The future relationship should incorporate the United Kingdom's continued commitment to respect the framework of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR)
The political declaration is not binding. And even if it was, respecting the human rights framework does not necessitate being part of the court. You lied.
Which other parts of the political declaration do you regard as optional? Ending free movement perhaps?
It's all optional. But freedom of movement will end from Brexit regardless.
So the vote would be for Remain, or a deal which parliment has already rejected, and logically would do so again??
I can see why people think it's a stich up.
Which is why I say me must Leave with No Deal if Parliament rejects Mrs May's deal.
Remain made it very clear that No Deal was a risk of voting Leave.
And yet the dishonestvotecampaign say that no one knew it. Funny that. Not really sure why they are so certain this time people will hear all that is said.
I know, there's plenty of polling showing Leave voters are prepared to take an economic hit which means a close family member/friend losing their job.
As I said on Sunday I'm not a fan of another referendum until after we've left.
What would be unfair about a ranked choice referendum vote which included no deal ?
I agree with those saying that a further referendum has to have something like no deal as an option, but it would be completely irresponsible for Parliament to offer that loaded gun without any safeguards. Really a further referendum should be done in the way that the 2016 referendum would have been approached by a non-negligent PM: by specifying what steps the government would take in the event of a leave vote, and codifying those steps in statute as part of the referendum bill. It's the only way to prevent a dishonest campaign selling unicornism to voters. If Parliament defines what would be done to mitigate the impacts of a WTO Brexit (amongst other things that's likely to include stating that A50 would be triggered several years after the referendum result because proper preparation is impossible in 2 years) and the electorate vote for it, tax rises and spending cuts and all, that seems legitimate.
It would also mean that there was a viable possibility of the EU offering a better deal, because we would demonstrably be prepared for no deal. Still wouldn't look great for Northern Ireland, though.
May can't claim it because it would damage negotiations, but the rest of us can point out the reality. The withdrawal agreement is not BINO. It repatriates service regulation, immigration, fisheries, agriculture, service trade and criminal justice. We should sign this and consider the next deal on its merits.
You've let the cat out of the bag there. When the next deal comes around and it's for full BINO, you'll suddenly start telling us why maintaining free movement and services alignment is essential for the economy.
No, I won't. If free movement is in it I will oppose it.
So the vote would be for Remain, or a deal which parliment has already rejected, and logically would do so again??
I can see why people think it's a stich up.
Which is why I say me must Leave with No Deal if Parliament rejects Mrs May's deal.
Remain made it very clear that No Deal was a risk of voting Leave.
And yet the dishonestvotecampaign say that no one knew it. Funny that. Not really sure why they are so certain this time people will hear all that is said.
I know, there's plenty of polling showing Leave voters are prepared to take an economic hit which means a close family member/friend losing their job.
As I said on Sunday I'm not a fan of another referendum until after we've left.
What would be unfair about a ranked choice referendum vote which included no deal ?
Like redheads, I have a weakness for ranked choice voting systems.
So the vote would be for Remain, or a deal which parliment has already rejected, and logically would do so again??
I can see why people think it's a stich up.
Which is why I say me must Leave with No Deal if Parliament rejects Mrs May's deal.
Remain made it very clear that No Deal was a risk of voting Leave.
And yet the dishonestvotecampaign say that no one knew it. Funny that. Not really sure why they are so certain this time people will hear all that is said.
I know, there's plenty of polling showing Leave voters are prepared to take an economic hit which means a close family member/friend losing their job.
As I said on Sunday I'm not a fan of another referendum until after we've left.
Leaving then rejoining may have more economic pain but at least fulfills the first referendum before we get the second. But MPs want that remain so bad they cannot help themselves.
They are being abetted by the ERG.
Oh absolutely they are.
I don't even mind really if people are genuinely voting the way they feel is best for the country, frustrating as that would be for less chaotic options, but too many give the impression, even now, of thinking there's no issues with their option, and there are problems with all of them.
I will vote "no deal" if it is presented to me as an option in a referendum, otherwise I shall boycott it. I take democracy seriously.
I think I'd spoil my ballot if it were Remain vs the Deal that Parliament doesn't want.
That would be playing into Remainers hands.
I mean remain is better than May's deal, but it only puts us back to square one, yet angrier, two years older, but none the wiser wiser. But at least it doesn't trap us in an eternal purgatorial backstop hell scenario.
"She should literally find a sword and throw herself on it. Let’s just remember the Norwegians executed Quisling for his collaboration with the forces of German lead European Subjugation"
I've just seen this comment on Facebook. I imagine you can guess who "she" is.
And people think passing this deal will subdue extremism and bring the country together? They are deluding themselves.
.
Yet more lies. The ECJ said it's lawful to deny the vote to prisoners. It's the ECHR that said otherwise, and the Brexit deal binds us to the ECHR.
I meant to say ECHR - a momentary slip up. But you are lying. There is no ECHR binding in the agreement.
Look at paragraph 7 of the political declaration:
The future relationship should incorporate the United Kingdom's continued commitment to respect the framework of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR)
The political declaration is not binding. And even if it was, respecting the human rights framework does not necessitate being part of the court. You lied.
I'm not sure on what level May can claim to have secured a 'deal' if the PD is regarded as not having any binding effect. I mean it's technically true, but a corollary of that is that all she has secured is a transition period, a possible extension to the transition period, and then a backstop we can't leave while the EU decide what they want to let us have. If we don't keep to the commitments made on our side in the PD, there's not a whole lot of chance the EU will keep to theirs - so following the reasoning through, if we aren't bound into the ECHR and a whole heap of other stuff, the sum total of the deal is indefinite BINO with no influence and an extra helping of Irish Sea borders.
May can't claim it because it would damage negotiations, but the rest of us can point out the reality. The withdrawal agreement is not BINO. It repatriates service regulation, immigration, fisheries, agriculture, service trade and criminal justice. We should sign this and consider the next deal on its merits.
So just to be clear, are you seeing 'the deal' as simply 'transition period plus life in an indefinite backstop' with everything else completely up in the air still?
“Privy Council terms” is the full advice (not redacted) being released to privy council members (a lot of senior MPs) but with them being enjoined to keep it confidential on the pain of their tongue being torn out and lightly broiled in the juice of their spleen or some such evocative deterrent
If there had been confidential or national security concerns in the advice (which Leadsom hinted there might be, but actually it was bollocks) what can happen is that the Prime Minister would present the full advice to party leaders under privy council terms, and they will jointly agree to a redacted text for release.
Of course in this case there was no need for that because Andrea Leadsom is an idiot who no more understands how confidentiality works than she does anything else she sets her mind to.
I don’t disagree with that. I was purely arguing that I don’t think Cox lied as per your point 3.
So the vote would be for Remain, or a deal which parliment has already rejected, and logically would do so again??
I can see why people think it's a stich up.
Which is why I say me must Leave with No Deal if Parliament rejects Mrs May's deal.
Remain made it very clear that No Deal was a risk of voting Leave.
And yet the dishonestvotecampaign say that no one knew it. Funny that. Not really sure why they are so certain this time people will hear all that is said.
I know, there's plenty of polling showing Leave voters are prepared to take an economic hit which means a close family member/friend losing their job.
As I said on Sunday I'm not a fan of another referendum until after we've left.
What would be unfair about a ranked choice referendum vote which included no deal ?
Like redheads, I have a weakness for ranked choice voting systems.
I didn't know that redheads have a weakness for ranked choice voting systems.
So the vote would be for Remain, or a deal which parliment has already rejected, and logically would do so again??
I can see why people think it's a stich up.
Which is why I say me must Leave with No Deal if Parliament rejects Mrs May's deal.
Remain made it very clear that No Deal was a risk of voting Leave.
And yet the dishonestvotecampaign say that no one knew it. Funny that. Not really sure why they are so certain this time people will hear all that is said.
I know, there's plenty of polling showing Leave voters are prepared to take an economic hit which means a close family member/friend losing their job.
As I said on Sunday I'm not a fan of another referendum until after we've left.
What would be unfair about a ranked choice referendum vote which included no deal ?
Like redheads, I have a weakness for ranked choice voting systems.
And now is your chance for a truly meaningful relationship with one.
He never beleaved in leaving, whatever his acolytes might think. It was always about his own personal career; now that is shot he is struggling with how honest to be, honesty not being his default setting.
In which case, frankly a second referendum is a smokescreen. If MPs would never vote for No-deal, and reject May's deal, then the only option is remain.
If MPs reject May's deal, then what would be the point of offering it in a referendum?
Quite. But a democratic smokescreen is what MPs want. They have the power to remain if that is what they want, and the majority of them very clearly do (and should have not triggered A50 then, even at the cost of their careers if they felt that strongly about it), but it's all very well talking about the will of the people changing but at the moment it is just polling, and we know that is not always on the money. Unless they are going to be honest and just say 'We, your MPs, are not going to do this because it is wrong' which most are not willing to do, they need cover for the u-turn from their manifestos.
Hence a vote as stacked to one side as they can. HYUFD is still a believer the deal would win against Remain, but with no political support for it(how many in the Cabinet and Tory loyalists will no longer back it after it loses next week?) it's a good foil against the glory that is remain.
The ultras in remain are now driving things just as ultras in leave were previously. It doesn't matter what the impacts might be, it will all work out with no problems, so long as the right decision is made. And they are totally different to Brexit ultras of course.
Very good post. There's an argument for voting No Deal to punish the government and parliament for not doing their job properly the first time round. It's a safe enough option because the cosseted dears would never enact a true no deal.
We had a punishment vote in 2016. There were at least 10-20 different reasons for kicking the political class. Many had nothing to do with the EU and were better aimed at Whitehall.
Unless these concerns are separated out from sovereignty or immigration, how do we know how many people would really want to be inside or outside the EU?
I will vote "no deal" if it is presented to me as an option in a referendum, otherwise I shall boycott it. I take democracy seriously.
I think I'd spoil my ballot if it were Remain vs the Deal that Parliament doesn't want.
That would be playing into Remainers hands.
I mean remain is better than May's deal, but it only puts us back to square one, yet angrier, two years older, but none the wiser wiser. But at least it doesn't trap us in an eternal purgatorial backstop hell scenario.
We might not be 'wiser wiser' but I think both we and our representatives will have learned some important lessons.
He never beleaved in leaving, whatever his acolytes might think. It was always about his own personal career; now that is shot he is struggling with how honest to be, honesty not being his default setting.
And how he keeps his Telegraph column for that is all he currently has left...
So the vote would be for Remain, or a deal which parliment has already rejected, and logically would do so again??
I can see why people think it's a stich up.
Which is why I say me must Leave with No Deal if Parliament rejects Mrs May's deal.
Remain made it very clear that No Deal was a risk of voting Leave.
And yet the dishonestvotecampaign say that no one knew it. Funny that. Not really sure why they are so certain this time people will hear all that is said.
I know, there's plenty of polling showing Leave voters are prepared to take an economic hit which means a close family member/friend losing their job.
As I said on Sunday I'm not a fan of another referendum until after we've left.
What would be unfair about a ranked choice referendum vote which included no deal ?
Like redheads, I have a weakness for ranked choice voting systems.
At least when Trump went full NRA-GOP after being a Hillary/Bush middle of the roader for years he did it properly. Boris has more faces than the town clock as Malc would say.
I will vote "no deal" if it is presented to me as an option in a referendum, otherwise I shall boycott it. I take democracy seriously.
I think I'd spoil my ballot if it were Remain vs the Deal that Parliament doesn't want.
That would be playing into Remainers hands.
I mean remain is better than May's deal, but it only puts us back to square one, yet angrier, two years older, but none the wiser wiser. But at least it doesn't trap us in an eternal purgatorial backstop hell scenario.
We might not be 'wiser wiser' but I think both we and our representatives will have learned some important lessons.
Me trying to understand what we've learned from Brexit is JK Simmons in the final scene of Burn After Reading.
So the vote would be for Remain, or a deal which parliment has already rejected, and logically would do so again??
I can see why people think it's a stich up.
Which is why I say me must Leave with No Deal if Parliament rejects Mrs May's deal.
Remain made it very clear that No Deal was a risk of voting Leave.
And yet the dishonestvotecampaign say that no one knew it. Funny that. Not really sure why they are so certain this time people will hear all that is said.
I know, there's plenty of polling showing Leave voters are prepared to take an economic hit which means a close family member/friend losing their job.
As I said on Sunday I'm not a fan of another referendum until after we've left.
What would be unfair about a ranked choice referendum vote which included no deal ?
Like redheads, I have a weakness for ranked choice voting systems.
I didn't know that redheads have a weakness for ranked choice voting systems.
I think TSE mistyped - he just likes redheads and he has a weakness for crap voting systems.
But is it not common to assume that in agreeing to a contract, there has been no false representation and crooked dealing? If it is shown that there has been some mal practice- as is the case here - then surely the customary legal expectations are blown sky high....
A simple bookkeeping error is not really in the same class as spending millions of pounds from mysterious overseas sources, with the intention to rig the result, Mr Eagles. I know you will do everything in your power to discredit the Lib Dems. If it were not you, I feel that this would be counted as trolling.
He never beleaved in leaving, whatever his acolytes might think. It was always about his own personal career; now that is shot he is struggling with how honest to be, honesty not being his default setting.
And how he keeps his Telegraph column for that is all he currently has left...
He has many gullible fans and followers. Gove may not be well liked but he did the nation a massive favour last Tory contest.
He never beleaved in leaving, whatever his acolytes might think. It was always about his own personal career; now that is shot he is struggling with how honest to be, honesty not being his default setting.
And how he keeps his Telegraph column for that is all he currently has left...
He has many gullible fans and followers. Gove may not be well liked but he did the nation a massive favour last Tory contest.
Although Gove played a large role in convincing Boris it was safe to campaign for Brexit in the first place.
Sir Oliver Letwin and Nicky Morgan reveal with the passage of the Grieve amendment they will propose to the Commons that the UK stays in the single market and customs union if May's Deal fails and declare they believe they now have a cross-party majority for that proposition.
He never beleaved in leaving, whatever his acolytes might think. It was always about his own personal career; now that is shot he is struggling with how honest to be, honesty not being his default setting.
And how he keeps his Telegraph column for that is all he currently has left...
He has many gullible fans and followers. Gove may not be well liked but he did the nation a massive favour last Tory contest.
Although Gove played a large role in convincing Boris it was safe to campaign for Brexit in the first place.
Gove is supporting the deal, he has recognised the necessity of compromise
Sir Oliver Letwin and Nicky Morgan reveal with the passage of the Grieve amendment they will propose to the Commons that the UK stays in the single market and customs union if May's Deal fails and declare they believe they now have a cross-party majority for that proposition.
Sir Oliver Letwin and Nicky Morgan reveal with the passage of the Grieve amendment they will propose to the Commons that the UK stays in the single market and customs union if May's Deal fails and declare they believe they now have a cross-party majority for that proposition.
He never beleaved in leaving, whatever his acolytes might think. It was always about his own personal career; now that is shot he is struggling with how honest to be, honesty not being his default setting.
And how he keeps his Telegraph column for that is all he currently has left...
He has many gullible fans and followers. Gove may not be well liked but he did the nation a massive favour last Tory contest.
Although Gove played a large role in convincing Boris it was safe to campaign for Brexit in the first place.
Gove is supporting the deal, he has recognised the necessity of compromise
He never beleaved in leaving, whatever his acolytes might think. It was always about his own personal career; now that is shot he is struggling with how honest to be, honesty not being his default setting.
And how he keeps his Telegraph column for that is all he currently has left...
He has many gullible fans and followers. Gove may not be well liked but he did the nation a massive favour last Tory contest.
Although Gove played a large role in convincing Boris it was safe to campaign for Brexit in the first place.
Gove is supporting the deal, he has recognised the necessity of compromise
He knows that if the deal (or similar) fails it will be open season on him personally for his role in bringing the Conservative party to this point.
The Government has released legal advice on the backstop but not on the Withdrawal Agreement as a whole.
The motion passed yesterday required AG’s advice on Withdrawal Agreement but the gov has only released advice on Northern Ireland. Given that Law Officers ought to have been consulted regarding the whole Withdrawal Agreement, (Ministerial code) where is the rest of the advice?
Jacob Rees-Mogg following meeting with Nigel Dodds: The DUP will support the government in a confidence motion if the Withdrawal Agreement is voted down. But the risk of losing them and having an election is if the WA goes through.
Sir Oliver Letwin and Nicky Morgan reveal with the passage of the Grieve amendment they will propose to the Commons that the UK stays in the single market and customs union if May's Deal fails and declare they believe they now have a cross-party majority for that proposition.
Would there be a single supporter of Boris left in the country if he flipped? Even he must know this.
More likely he is trying to avoid May's deal while allowing him to change to support with a fig leaf amendment.
Boris makes an absolute fortune whiff-whaffing the after dinner circuit. But business hates Brexit. If he's given up on becoming leader, his bank balance suggests remain is the better option.
"She should literally find a sword and throw herself on it. Let’s just remember the Norwegians executed Quisling for his collaboration with the forces of German lead European Subjugation"
I've just seen this comment on Facebook. I imagine you can guess who "she" is.
And people think passing this deal will subdue extremism and bring the country together? They are deluding themselves.
.
Yet more lies. The ECJ said it's lawful to deny the vote to prisoners. It's the ECHR that said otherwise, and the Brexit deal binds us to the ECHR.
I meant to say ECHR - a momentary slip up. But you are lying. There is no ECHR binding in the agreement.
Look at paragraph 7 of the political declaration:
The future relationship should incorporate the United Kingdom's continued commitment to respect the framework of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR)
The political declaration is not binding. And even if it was, respecting the human rights framework does not necessitate being part of the court. You lied.
a borders.
May can't claim it because it would damage negotiations, but the rest of us can point out the reality. The withdrawal agreement is not BINO. It repatriates service regulation, immigration, fisheries, agriculture, service trade and criminal justice. We should sign this and consider the next deal on its merits.
So just to be clear, are you seeing 'the deal' as simply 'transition period plus life in an indefinite backstop' with everything else completely up in the air still?
Mostly. The backstop works well as it removes the EU's leverage for closing the border/stopping medicines coming through/lorries backing up 100 miles/plagues of locust in negotiating the next deal.
And the backstop is indefinite but can ultimately be left as we can leave any international deal. Obviously we can't announce that loudly though.
Sir Oliver Letwin and Nicky Morgan reveal with the passage of the Grieve amendment they will propose to the Commons that the UK stays in the single market and customs union if May's Deal fails and declare they believe they now have a cross-party majority for that proposition.
Sir Oliver Letwin and Nicky Morgan reveal with the passage of the Grieve amendment they will propose to the Commons that the UK stays in the single market and customs union if May's Deal fails and declare they believe they now have a cross-party majority for that proposition.
And when the EU won’t accept this because it gives the U.K. all of the trade advantages and none of the political costs? (ignoring the fact that it STILL requires the withdrawal agreement to be passed)
Jacob Rees-Mogg following meeting with Nigel Dodds: The DUP will support the government in a confidence motion if the Withdrawal Agreement is voted down. But the risk of losing them and having an election is if the WA goes through.
Well it isn't, but Brexit is more important than a Tory government. If that is the price of a deal the majority of mps support, so be it.
In which case, frankly a second referendum is a smokescreen. If MPs would never vote for No-deal, and reject May's deal, then the only option is remain.
If MPs reject May's deal, then what would be the point of offering it in a referendum?
Quite. But a democratic smokescreen is what MPs want. They have the power to remain if that is what they want, and the majority of them very clearly do (and should have not triggered A50 then, even at the cost of their careers if they felt that strongly about it), but it's all very well talking about the will of the people changing but at the moment it is just polling, and we know that is not always on the money. Unless they are going to be honest and just say 'We, your MPs, are not going to do this because it is wrong' which most are not willing to do, they need cover for the u-turn from their manifestos.
And, if, by some fluke, the Deal that Parliament rejected did get the support of 50%+1, MP's would still be able to vote down/amend the detailed legislation to implement it.
At present, I can’t see a political outcome that doesn’t result in a general election or referendum in the New Year.
The camel’s back of this administration has been broken.
Sir Oliver Letwin and Nicky Morgan reveal with the passage of the Grieve amendment they will propose to the Commons that the UK stays in the single market and customs union if May's Deal fails and declare they believe they now have a cross-party majority for that proposition.
And when the EU won’t accept this because it gives the U.K. all of the trade advantages and none of the political costs? (ignoring the fact that it STILL requires the withdrawal agreement to be passed)
This is what gets me, all these variations of "if we just ask the EU again they will let us have our cake and eat it". It's like 80% of our MPs have been huffing paint.
In which case, frankly a second referendum is a smokescreen. If MPs would never vote for No-deal, and reject May's deal, then the only option is remain.
If MPs reject May's deal, then what would be the point of offering it in a referendum?
Quite. But a democratic smokescreen is what MPs want. They have the power to remain if that is what they want, and the majority of them very clearly do (and should have not triggered A50 then, even at the cost of their careers if they felt that strongly about it), but it's all very well talking about the will of the people changing but at the moment it is just polling, and we know that is not always on the money. Unless they are going to be honest and just say 'We, your MPs, are not going to do this because it is wrong' which most are not willing to do, they need cover for the u-turn from their manifestos.
And, if, by some fluke, the Deal that Parliament rejected did get the support of 50%+1, MP's would still be able to vote down/amend the detailed legislation to implement it.
At present, I can’t see a political outcome that doesn’t result in a general election or referendum in the New Year.
The camel’s back of this administration has been broken.
There is a good chance that a GE resolves nothing - or we are stuck with Corbyn
In which case, frankly a second referendum is a smokescreen. If MPs would never vote for No-deal, and reject May's deal, then the only option is remain.
If MPs reject May's deal, then what would be the point of offering it in a referendum?
Quite. But a democratic smokescreen is what MPs want. They have the power to remain if that is what they want, and the majority of them very clearly do (and should have not triggered A50 then, even at the cost of their careers if they felt that strongly about it), but it's all very well talking about the will of the people changing but at the moment it is just polling, and we know that is not always on the money. Unless they are going to be honest and just say 'We, your MPs, are not going to do this because it is wrong' which most are not willing to do, they need cover for the u-turn from their manifestos.
And, if, by some fluke, the Deal that Parliament rejected did get the support of 50%+1, MP's would still be able to vote down/amend the detailed legislation to implement it.
At present, I can’t see a political outcome that doesn’t result in a general election or referendum in the New Year.
The camel’s back of this administration has been broken.
There is a good chance that a GE resolves nothing - or we are stuck with Corbyn
And a referendum couldn't realistically be held before Easter, which is rather too late.
In which case, frankly a second referendum is a smokescreen. If MPs would never vote for No-deal, and reject May's deal, then the only option is remain.
If MPs reject May's deal, then what would be the point of offering it in a referendum?
Quite. But a democratic smokescreen is what MPs want. They have the power to remain if that is what they want, and the majority of them very clearly do (and should have not triggered A50 then, even at the cost of their careers if they felt that strongly about it), but it's all very well talking about the will of the people changing but at the moment it is just polling, and we know that is not always on the money. Unless they are going to be honest and just say 'We, your MPs, are not going to do this because it is wrong' which most are not willing to do, they need cover for the u-turn from their manifestos.
And, if, by some fluke, the Deal that Parliament rejected did get the support of 50%+1, MP's would still be able to vote down/amend the detailed legislation to implement it.
At present, I can’t see a political outcome that doesn’t result in a general election or referendum in the New Year.
The camel’s back of this administration has been broken.
I agree. I think there is a lot of latent support for a referendum amongst MPs and this will come out in to the open after Mays deal is defeated, so a referendum is more likely than a GE. But a GE may well follow shortly after a referendum.
Jacob Rees-Mogg following meeting with Nigel Dodds: The DUP will support the government in a confidence motion if the Withdrawal Agreement is voted down. But the risk of losing them and having an election is if the WA goes through.
TM will not bend under threat - it is not in her dna
However, I cannot see the deal passing and the next 24 hours after tuesday's vote will decide her fate
1 She resigns
2 She consults across party and adopts a collegiate approach
3 She decides the next move without consultation and faces two vnoc
I hope it is 2 but it is not in her character. If she does she may make a success of finding the way through the maze
I have given up on listening to the 24 hr coverage as the real theatre will take place on tuesday.
However, tuesday should be the end of the most important phase, which should give a greater degree of clarity on our future with the EU
Sir Oliver Letwin and Nicky Morgan reveal with the passage of the Grieve amendment they will propose to the Commons that the UK stays in the single market and customs union if May's Deal fails and declare they believe they now have a cross-party majority for that proposition.
In which case, frankly a second referendum is a smokescreen. If MPs would never vote for No-deal, and reject May's deal, then the only option is remain.
If MPs reject May's deal, then what would be the point of offering it in a referendum?
Quite. But a democratic smokescreen is what MPs want. They have the power to remain if that is what they want, and the majority of them very clearly do (and should have not triggered A50 then, even at the cost of their careers if they felt that strongly about it), but it's all very well talking about the will of the people changing but at the moment it is just polling, and we know that is not always on the money. Unless they are going to be honest and just say 'We, your MPs, are not going to do this because it is wrong' which most are not willing to do, they need cover for the u-turn from their manifestos.
And, if, by some fluke, the Deal that Parliament rejected did get the support of 50%+1, MP's would still be able to vote down/amend the detailed legislation to implement it.
At present, I can’t see a political outcome that doesn’t result in a general election or referendum in the New Year.
The camel’s back of this administration has been broken.
I agree. I think there is a lot of latent support for a referendum amongst MPs and this will come out in to the open after Mays deal is defeated, so a referendum is more likely than a GE. But a GE may well follow shortly after a referendum.
Agreed. Even if the Tories change leader and the SUP come back on board, this government is done.
I would like if they could limp on for a year though, for a 2020 GE - get us back on track FTPA style.
I have a horrible feeling that Corbyn will be PM before the year ends.
Well I suppose better Corbyn becomes PM whilst Brexit is still a live issue to be resolved than afterwards.
It is bluntly quite hard to imagine that even a diamond hard Brexit that grounded every flight on the planet could be more damaging than putting Corbyn in charge of one of the world's most important economies and financial centres.
I have a question though. Now Parliament has decided it has the power to compel the release of legal advice could it do the same to a Corbyn government - say, the advice he was given before appointing a known supporter of the Putin government to a key role?
Sir Oliver Letwin and Nicky Morgan reveal with the passage of the Grieve amendment they will propose to the Commons that the UK stays in the single market and customs union if May's Deal fails and declare they believe they now have a cross-party majority for that proposition.
As long as it includes the customs union it meets the backstop criteria and as it has full single market compliance for the whole UK rather than just partial for Northern Ireland even the DUP could back it.
The ERG and most Leavers will hate it of course and cry 'betrayal' tough, May's Deal was the best on offer
A Corbyn premiership with McDonnell as Chancellor would be farworse than a no deal Brexit but probably what Remainers deserve, particularly those who want a second referendum
Would there be a single supporter of Boris left in the country if he flipped? Even he must know this.
More likely he is trying to avoid May's deal while allowing him to change to support with a fig leaf amendment.
Boris makes an absolute fortune whiff-whaffing the after dinner circuit. But business hates Brexit. If he's given up on becoming leader, his bank balance suggests remain is the better option.
Yes, he'll follow his career interests; personal belief or conviction don't come into it.
Sir Oliver Letwin and Nicky Morgan reveal with the passage of the Grieve amendment they will propose to the Commons that the UK stays in the single market and customs union if May's Deal fails and declare they believe they now have a cross-party majority for that proposition.
As long as it includes the customs union it meets the backstop criteria and as it has full single market compliance for the whole UK rather than just partial for Northern Ireland even the DUP could back it.
The ERG and most Leavers will hate it of course and cry 'betrayal' tough, May's Deal was the best on offer
A Corbyn premiership with McDonnell as Chancellor would be farworse than a no deal Brexit but probably what Remainers deserve, particularly those who want a second referendum
It's the europhobes who led us down this path. They need to accept responsibility.
Sir Oliver Letwin and Nicky Morgan reveal with the passage of the Grieve amendment they will propose to the Commons that the UK stays in the single market and customs union if May's Deal fails and declare they believe they now have a cross-party majority for that proposition.
Comments
Of course in this case there was no need for that because Andrea Leadsom is an idiot who no more understands how confidentiality works than she does anything else she sets her mind to.
It would also mean that there was a viable possibility of the EU offering a better deal, because we would demonstrably be prepared for no deal. Still wouldn't look great for Northern Ireland, though.
That is indeed the true spirit of democracy...
I don't even mind really if people are genuinely voting the way they feel is best for the country, frustrating as that would be for less chaotic options, but too many give the impression, even now, of thinking there's no issues with their option, and there are problems with all of them. Might find it easier to get Tory votes, depending on the deal?
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1070369065598898179
Two articles written.
Did he just toss a coin in the end?
Proud 18%
Embarrassed 36%
Neither proud nor embarrassed 38%
Don’t know 8%
Unless these concerns are separated out from sovereignty or immigration, how do we know how many people would really want to be inside or outside the EU?
No 2 AV: 68%
Yes 2 AV: 32%
Boris has more faces than the town clock as Malc would say.
If May's Deal falls BINO now looks favourite
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-deal-news-tory-sensibles-plan-coup-to-push-through-ultrasoft-exit-from-eu-a4008981.html?amp
Who will be proposing it to the EU?
The Government has released legal advice on the backstop but not on the Withdrawal Agreement as a whole.
The motion passed yesterday required AG’s advice on Withdrawal Agreement but the gov has only released advice on Northern Ireland. Given that Law Officers ought to have been consulted regarding the whole Withdrawal Agreement, (Ministerial code) where is the rest of the advice?
More likely he is trying to avoid May's deal while allowing him to change to support with a fig leaf amendment.
Exclusive: Analysis finds adverts reached 'tens of millions of people' in crucial days after spending limit breached – enough to change the outcome"
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/vote-leave-referendum-overspending-high-court-brexit-legal-challenge-void-oxford-professor-a8668771.html
A HUNGOVER history teacher accidentally started teaching scenes from Game of Thrones as real events, it has emerged.
https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/arts-entertainment/hungover-history-teacher-accidentally-starts-teaching-game-of-thrones-20170831134927
And the backstop is indefinite but can ultimately be left as we can leave any international deal. Obviously we can't announce that loudly though.
It was from The Last Kingdom.
If it were Remain v. No Deal due to Parliamentary shenanigans, then I’d spoil my ballot.
"You spin me right round baby, right round."
The camel’s back of this administration has been broken.
I have to be a bit careful about what I say regarding King Edward IV's ummm, eventful sex life.
I'm interested to see though that in this particular school they teach the full Book of Daniel and Revelation. I assume it's a Catholic school?
https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1070293117067239424
However, I cannot see the deal passing and the next 24 hours after tuesday's vote will decide her fate
1 She resigns
2 She consults across party and adopts a collegiate approach
3 She decides the next move without consultation and faces two vnoc
I hope it is 2 but it is not in her character. If she does she may make a success of finding the way through the maze
I have given up on listening to the 24 hr coverage as the real theatre will take place on tuesday.
However, tuesday should be the end of the most important phase, which should give a greater degree of clarity on our future with the EU
I know it made a few people sick at Matthew Parker Street.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/09/if-youre-not-mentally-prepared-for-corbyn-as-prime-minister-then-you-should-be/
I don't think there's enough time left for Corbyn to become PM this year, next year, very much so.
I would like if they could limp on for a year though, for a 2020 GE - get us back on track FTPA style.
I have a question though. Now Parliament has decided it has the power to compel the release of legal advice could it do the same to a Corbyn government - say, the advice he was given before appointing a known supporter of the Putin government to a key role?
The ERG and most Leavers will hate it of course and cry 'betrayal' tough, May's Deal was the best on offer
It's the EU I'm asking about.