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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As Trump’s legal troubles mount punters now make it a 34% chan

SystemSystem Posts: 11,007
edited December 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As Trump’s legal troubles mount punters now make it a 34% chance that he’ll win WH2020

If it wasn’t for Brexit we’d be doing several threads a week about the US and particularly the prospects for Trump as the investigations appear to be getting closer.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,294
    Lock him up.

    But I suspect a GOP Senate will never vote to convict Trump.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,294
    E pluribus unum time.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,225
    Second, like the referendum
  • Options
    TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Lock him up.

    Be nice for Hillary. After all the abuse she's suffered over the years seeing one of her biggest bullies fall from grace so spectacularly would be some kind of karma.
  • Options
    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    I still think Trump is a marginal favourite to win in 2020, but not the strong favourite that most incumbents would be.
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,437
    Won’t be long until the ECJ decision. Could really throw the cat amongst the pigeons.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,294
    TheJezziah said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Lock him up.

    Be nice for Hillary. After all the abuse she's suffered over the years seeing one of her biggest bullies fall from grace so spectacularly would be some kind of karma.
    If Trump really wanted to lock up Hillary he should have offered her a job.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,922
    Piers Morgan is truly dreadful on Good Morning Britain
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,294
    rcs1000 said:

    Piers Morgan is truly dreadful on Good Morning Britain

    Those last four words are redundant.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,373
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Lock him up.

    But I suspect a GOP Senate will never vote to convict Trump.

    Doesn’t matter. He’ll go to jail after he leaves office.
  • Options
    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Piers Morgan is truly dreadful on Good Morning Britain

    Those last four words are redundant.
    I am not so sure. He makes people phone up a lot. I reckon ITV love it.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,373
    SquareRoot said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Piers Morgan is truly dreadful on Good Morning Britain

    Those last four words are redundant.
    I am not so sure. He makes people phone up a lot. I reckon ITV love it.
    In the same way people will stop to look at a traffic accident. Doesn’t make him any the less dreadful.

  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,373
    It’s beginning to look as though Biden will run after all:
    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/12/09/joe-biden-2020-vermont-bernie-sanders-1054071
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,373
    I (profitably) laid my bets on Biden during the Kavanaugh fight, but have since put a bit of money back on him.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,225
    In the long run, it’s not clear how Labour and the Conservatives will accommodate our modern ferment. At the 2017 election, Jeremy Corbyn’s party piled on votes from young, urban and educated people and the Tories found new openings among working-class Brexit supporters, but the result only highlighted our national deadlock. Though Brexit looks to me like an epochal disaster to which the best answer is probably another public vote, there is another question, which politicians’ inevitable fixation with backstops, borders and customs unions leaves untouched: how the array of deep social and cultural questions tangled up in the events of the last two years will eventually be settled. I also wonder how we construct online spaces, public institutions and media outlets that might protect some coherent idea of the national interest and genuinely public debate. One thing, though, seems obvious: that we are in the midst of things we have only just begun to understand, and the deafening noise from Westminster is only the start.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/dec/10/brexit-divides-tensions-political-vote
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    SquareRoot said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Piers Morgan is truly dreadful on Good Morning Britain

    Those last four words are redundant.
    I am not so sure. He makes people phone up a lot. I reckon ITV love it.
    Wow. I knew PB drew from across the community, but to find a Piers Morgan fan is genuinely remarkable.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,969
    Good morning, everyone.

    What time is the ECJ decision due?
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,373
    For those arguing Brexit helps us to target business with the growing economies in Asia...

    https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Business-Trends/Japanese-companies-look-to-Germany-and-Holland-amid-Brexit-fears
    According to consultants EY, Asian businesses tend to have a more negative view of the consequences of Brexit than companies from elsewhere.

    "Fifty percent of Asian investors in EY's latest U.K. Attractiveness Report said they were most worried about losing market access to the EU, compared with 39% of all investors," said Mark Gregory, the company's chief economist for the U.K.

    "This reflects the fact that many invest in the U.K. to export to the EU or to locate their regional headquarters."

    According to Gregory, "Twenty-five percent of Asian investors say they will move assets out of the U.K. in the next three years, compared with 8% overall."
  • Options
    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Jonathan said:

    SquareRoot said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Piers Morgan is truly dreadful on Good Morning Britain

    Those last four words are redundant.
    I am not so sure. He makes people phone up a lot. I reckon ITV love it.
    Wow. I knew PB drew from across the community, but to find a Piers Morgan fan is genuinely remarkable.
    I am not a fan. I was making the point that however ghastly he may be viewers are interacting with ITV by phone and social media . ITV will love it, however disliked he may be.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,046
    I heard Esther McVey on the radio this morning.

    How did she ever become a cabinet minister ?
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,251
    ECJ confirm we can revoke under current terms

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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    another_richard said:

    I heard Esther McVey on the radio this morning.

    How did she ever become a cabinet minister ?

    Because Leavers prized purity on their touchstone subject ahead of competence.
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    ECJ confirm we can revoke under current terms

    Poor Lord Kerr, drafting up a duff article.

    A bit of a problem for the EU that....
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,294
    Oh boy

    https://twitter.com/eucourtpress/status/1072039706123210752?s=21
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    ECJ confirm we can revoke under current terms

    I got that one wrong.

    That doesn't help Theresa May one little bit.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,932
    AlastairMeeks said:

    another_richard said:

    I heard Esther McVey on the radio this morning.

    How did she ever become a cabinet minister ?

    Because Leavers prized purity on their touchstone subject ahead of competence.
    Because no one sane wishes to become an MP so you are left struggling to find enough people who are competent?
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,251
    edited December 2018
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh boy

    https://twitter.com/eucourtpress/status/1072039706123210752?s=21

    Staying must now be a near racing certainty

    Well done to Nicola Sturgeon
  • Options
    BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    ECJ confirm we can revoke under current terms

    Shameful that the Government didn’t want us to know this.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,294
    Slackbladder said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    ECJ confirm we can revoke under current terms

    Poor Lord Kerr, drafting up a duff article.

    A bit of a problem for the EU that....
    Lord Kerr always said A50 was revocable.

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/10/brexit-date-is-not-irreversible-says-man-who-wrote-article-50-lord-kerr
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    It's on. Second referendum time.

    Hands up Leavers who are frit of the electorate?
  • Options
    AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh boy

    https://twitter.com/eucourtpress/status/1072039706123210752?s=21

    Staying must now be a near racing certainty

    Well done to Nicola Sturgeon
    It certainly kills off May’s deal which is inferior to both no deal and no Brexit. No deal has to be the only legitimate choice now.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,046
    AlastairMeeks said:

    another_richard said:

    I heard Esther McVey on the radio this morning.

    How did she ever become a cabinet minister ?

    Because Leavers prized purity on their touchstone subject ahead of competence.
    I wasn't aware she was given various government jobs since 2010 because she was a Leaver.
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Slackbladder said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    ECJ confirm we can revoke under current terms

    Poor Lord Kerr, drafting up a duff article.

    A bit of a problem for the EU that....
    Lord Kerr always said A50 was revocable.

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/10/brexit-date-is-not-irreversible-says-man-who-wrote-article-50-lord-kerr
    MY mistake, thought it was drawn up with the intention to have to be approved by the EU27

    That effectively pushes No deal, and bad deal off the table though...
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,936
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh boy

    https://twitter.com/eucourtpress/status/1072039706123210752?s=21

    Staying must now be a near racing certainty

    Well done to Nicola Sturgeon
    What odds will you give me on actually leaving then? 15/1?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,294
    Dear Leavers,

    We can either Remain on current terms of rejoin soon replete with membership of the Euro and Schengen.

    Your call.
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,097
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh boy

    https://twitter.com/eucourtpress/status/1072039706123210752?s=21

    Staying must now be a near racing certainty
    So far, the currency markets don't think so.
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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Thank you Scottish government for bringing this case to the ECJ . The UK can stay in on the same terms , rebate and other opt outs don’t change .
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    another_richard said:

    I heard Esther McVey on the radio this morning.

    How did she ever become a cabinet minister ?

    Tbh, I find few of either the cabinet or shadow cabinet particularly impressive. Mediocre is, for many of them, something they can only aspire to.

    Genuinely surprised by the ECJ ruling, but May’s travails just got a whole lot worse. Interesting times!
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,046
    Freggles said:

    It's on. Second referendum time.

    Hands up Leavers who are frit of the electorate?

    So you want a Deal vs No Deal referendum ?
  • Options
    asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Dear Leavers,

    We can either Remain on current terms of rejoin soon replete with membership of the Euro and Schengen.

    Your call.

    Euro and Schengen would never make it through a referendum. Hold strong, get through this week and it'll be fine
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,251
    AmpfieldAndy said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh boy

    https://twitter.com/eucourtpress/status/1072039706123210752?s=21

    Staying must now be a near racing certainty

    Well done to Nicola Sturgeon
    It certainly kills off May’s deal which is inferior to both no deal and no Brexit. No deal has to be the only legitimate choice now.
    You cannot see beyond no deal.

    If Brexiteers had any sense they should accept TM deal or it is all over for a generation
  • Options
    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited December 2018
    That’s it then. No deal it is...
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,922
    another_richard said:

    Freggles said:

    It's on. Second referendum time.

    Hands up Leavers who are frit of the electorate?

    So you want a Deal vs No Deal referendum ?
    I fear we'll get No Deal vs Remain as the referendum choice.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,294
    asjohnstone said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Dear Leavers,

    We can either Remain on current terms of rejoin soon replete with membership of the Euro and Schengen.

    Your call.

    Euro and Schengen would never make it through a referendum. Hold strong, get through this week and it'll be fine
    Wouldn’t need a referendum just a manifesto commitment by a party or parties who win a majority of seats at a general election.
  • Options
    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351
    Strangely enough, I hope Parliament passes a bill to withdraw Article 50. That, at least, would be honest. Admitting that pledging to honour the referendum vote was always a lie. Basically telling the voters that Parliament controls the country's future and not the voters. It's a 'come and have a go if you think you're hard enough' challenge.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,373
    another_richard said:

    Freggles said:

    It's on. Second referendum time.

    Hands up Leavers who are frit of the electorate?

    So you want a Deal vs No Deal referendum ?
    Deal; No Deal; Remain.

    The only one which will get through Parliament.
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    asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    rcs1000 said:

    Piers Morgan is truly dreadful on Good Morning Britain

    Susanna Reid would be the only reason to watch the show surely?
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Dear Leavers,

    We can either Remain on current terms of rejoin soon replete with membership of the Euro and Schengen.

    Your call.

    If only it were that simple... the problem is then what happens with the 'next stage' of EU interegation..

    Staying is now however the logical choice.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,294
    rcs1000 said:

    another_richard said:

    Freggles said:

    It's on. Second referendum time.

    Hands up Leavers who are frit of the electorate?

    So you want a Deal vs No Deal referendum ?
    I fear we'll get No Deal vs Remain as the referendum choice.
    Parliament won’t put ‘No Deal’ on the ballot paper.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,251
    Mortimer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh boy

    https://twitter.com/eucourtpress/status/1072039706123210752?s=21

    Staying must now be a near racing certainty

    Well done to Nicola Sturgeon
    What odds will you give me on actually leaving then? 15/1?
    I do not bet but it is TM deal or it is over
  • Options
    asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    asjohnstone said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Dear Leavers,

    We can either Remain on current terms of rejoin soon replete with membership of the Euro and Schengen.

    Your call.

    Euro and Schengen would never make it through a referendum. Hold strong, get through this week and it'll be fine
    Wouldn’t need a referendum just a manifesto commitment by a party or parties who win a majority of seats at a general election.
    Which no party would ever do..... (except the SNP)
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,969
    Mr. Meeks, indeed.

    Mr. Johnstone, not watched it myself but isn't Charlotte Hawkins on it?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,636
    Well, another step toward remain is taken. The EU already doesn't believe we will no deal because of how many people say we won't, and thus probably dont see the need to improve their offer, and now they have even less reason to do so as our remain contingent can prevent it altogether rather than no deal.

    I wonder how many mps will be honest in their memoires that they never had any intention of leaving if the opportunity arose to remain.
  • Options
    AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    edited December 2018
    another_richard said:

    Freggles said:

    It's on. Second referendum time.

    Hands up Leavers who are frit of the electorate?

    So you want a Deal vs No Deal referendum ?
    You’ve already lost one despite having the Gov of the day on your side. We had to wait 40 years for a referendum. You want a second after just 2. We should honour the first referendum before having a second.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Dear Leavers,

    We can either Remain on current terms of rejoin soon replete with membership of the Euro and Schengen.

    Your call.

    The Euro would be useful, would instantly kill off plenty of Forex risk in our business
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,969
    Another referendum is still 2.25 on Ladbrokes. Suspect that might shorten shortly.

    Remain and Leave in a second referendum are 4 and 4.5 respectively.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,294
    asjohnstone said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    asjohnstone said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Dear Leavers,

    We can either Remain on current terms of rejoin soon replete with membership of the Euro and Schengen.

    Your call.

    Euro and Schengen would never make it through a referendum. Hold strong, get through this week and it'll be fine
    Wouldn’t need a referendum just a manifesto commitment by a party or parties who win a majority of seats at a general election.
    Which no party would ever do..... (except the SNP)
    I can see a Labour Party led by a Starmeresque figure proposing it.
  • Options
    Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Dear Leavers,

    We can either Remain on current terms of rejoin soon replete with membership of the Euro and Schengen.

    Your call.

    Euro and Schengen v WTO Leave. Let's have a referendum and settle it.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,373
    Mortimer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh boy

    https://twitter.com/eucourtpress/status/1072039706123210752?s=21

    Staying must now be a near racing certainty

    Well done to Nicola Sturgeon
    What odds will you give me on actually leaving then? 15/1?
    Why would he give you odds any different from those available on the markets ?

    I realise that the Brexit project requires a number of gullible punters, but I don't think Big G is among their them.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,922
    Switzerland is chiming in on Brexit:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C3oBDj5a3VE
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,294
    Slackbladder said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Dear Leavers,

    We can either Remain on current terms of rejoin soon replete with membership of the Euro and Schengen.

    Your call.

    If only it were that simple... the problem is then what happens with the 'next stage' of EU interegation..

    Staying is now however the logical choice.

    Dave’s Deal looking even better by the day.

    I wonder if that’s still available.
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,077
    AmpfieldAndy said:

    another_richard said:

    Freggles said:

    It's on. Second referendum time.

    Hands up Leavers who are frit of the electorate?

    So you want a Deal vs No Deal referendum ?
    You’ve already lost one despite having the Gov of the day on your side.
    Tainted with lies and fear.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,914
    If I were a Brexiteer I’d see today’s judgment as a chance to start again, armed with the knowledge that the EU has shown exactly how it will handle a Brexit negotiation.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,251
    nico67 said:

    Thank you Scottish government for bringing this case to the ECJ . The UK can stay in on the same terms , rebate and other opt outs don’t change .

    It is a big moment and confirms that Nicola Sturgeon is a consummate politician
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,922
    Donny43 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Dear Leavers,

    We can either Remain on current terms of rejoin soon replete with membership of the Euro and Schengen.

    Your call.

    Euro and Schengen v WTO Leave. Let's have a referendum and settle it.
    I'd be keen on Schengen, but not being a member of the EU. Which, I guess, makes me Swiss.
  • Options
    AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    Gallowgate said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    another_richard said:

    Freggles said:

    It's on. Second referendum time.

    Hands up Leavers who are frit of the electorate?

    So you want a Deal vs No Deal referendum ?
    You’ve already lost one despite having the Gov of the day on your side.
    Tainted with lies and fear.
    Lies like the Treasury forecast and punishment budget you mean. Project Fear was a Remain ploy not a Leave one.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,294
    ‘Scuse me all.

    I’m off to hum and sing ‘Ode to joy’ at the top of my lungs.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,636
    Slackbladder said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    ECJ confirm we can revoke under current terms

    Poor Lord Kerr, drafting up a duff article.

    A bit of a problem for the EU that....
    Only a little. It's silly it's unilaterally revocable given potential for being jerked around but if we don't leave no one else will even dare contemplate it, and they get our money forever now, which is the only thing they care about our membership anyway. That's worth the theoretical chance of others messing them about and the continued annoyance of our reluctant membership.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,922
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh boy

    https://twitter.com/eucourtpress/status/1072039706123210752?s=21

    Well, that solves the requirement for unanimity for extending the deadline.

    Revocation of A50 on Tuesday... submission of A50 on Wednesday...
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,225
    If the government tables its futile deal-no deal referendum, the question is whether there is a majority in Parliament either to add Remain making it a three-way, or replacing no deal with Remain.
  • Options
    Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    ECJ confirm we can revoke under current terms

    I got that one wrong.

    That doesn't help Theresa May one little bit.
    You were wrong only in failing to realise that the ECJ is not a rational court of law but is instead a political arm of the "ever closer union" project.
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    edited December 2018
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Slackbladder said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Dear Leavers,

    We can either Remain on current terms of rejoin soon replete with membership of the Euro and Schengen.

    Your call.

    If only it were that simple... the problem is then what happens with the 'next stage' of EU interegation..

    Staying is now however the logical choice.

    Dave’s Deal looking even better by the day.

    I wonder if that’s still available.
    A compromise would be this.


    Stay in EU
    Write into the withdrawal agreement that ANY additional 'transfer of power' to the EU must be subject to a referendum, so thats stated in law.

    That way, we stay, but the leavers get a chance to block any further change to our status and relationship with the EU.

    I'd take that, would you?
  • Options
    AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh boy

    https://twitter.com/eucourtpress/status/1072039706123210752?s=21

    Staying must now be a near racing certainty

    Well done to Nicola Sturgeon
    It certainly kills off May’s deal which is inferior to both no deal and no Brexit. No deal has to be the only legitimate choice now.
    You cannot see beyond no deal.

    If Brexiteers had any sense they should accept TM deal or it is all over for a generation
    You are blind to the wishes of 17.4 m voters and bent out of shape like a true europhile because you lost first time around.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,294
    rcs1000 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh boy

    https://twitter.com/eucourtpress/status/1072039706123210752?s=21

    Well, that solves the requirement for unanimity for extending the deadline.

    Revocation of A50 on Tuesday... submission of A50 on Wednesday...
    Nope. That falls under the mischief rule.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,922
    AmpfieldAndy said:

    Gallowgate said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    another_richard said:

    Freggles said:

    It's on. Second referendum time.

    Hands up Leavers who are frit of the electorate?

    So you want a Deal vs No Deal referendum ?
    You’ve already lost one despite having the Gov of the day on your side.
    Tainted with lies and fear.
    Lies like the Treasury forecast and punishment budget you mean. Project Fear was a Remain ploy not a Leave one.
    Being wrong is not the same as lying.

    I suspect that the Treasury* believed there would be an immediate recession in the event of Brexit.

    * Not that everyone in the Treasury would think that way, but groupthink is powerful.
  • Options
    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    There won’t be a referendum because Parliament won’t be able to agree a second (or third etc) option (other than remain) to put on the ballot paper. So the only way we remain is if we revoke without a referendum.

    So no deal must be strong favourite now.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,932
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh boy

    https://twitter.com/eucourtpress/status/1072039706123210752?s=21

    Well, that solves the requirement for unanimity for extending the deadline.

    Revocation of A50 on Tuesday... submission of A50 on Wednesday...
    Nope. That falls under the mischief rule.
    So Revoke A50 on Tuesday - actually decide where we want to be and in 2 years time submit A50...
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,936
    Nigelb said:

    Mortimer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh boy

    https://twitter.com/eucourtpress/status/1072039706123210752?s=21

    Staying must now be a near racing certainty

    Well done to Nicola Sturgeon
    What odds will you give me on actually leaving then? 15/1?
    Why would he give you odds any different from those available on the markets ?

    I realise that the Brexit project requires a number of gullible punters, but I don't think Big G is among their them.
    Well, he thinks its a near racing certainty that we'd remain.

    I got 15/1 at 10pm on the day of the vote....
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,922
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh boy

    https://twitter.com/eucourtpress/status/1072039706123210752?s=21

    Well, that solves the requirement for unanimity for extending the deadline.

    Revocation of A50 on Tuesday... submission of A50 on Wednesday...
    Nope. That falls under the mischief rule.
    Which Article is that?
  • Options
    Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh boy

    https://twitter.com/eucourtpress/status/1072039706123210752?s=21

    Well, that solves the requirement for unanimity for extending the deadline.

    Revocation of A50 on Tuesday... submission of A50 on Wednesday...
    Nope. That falls under the mischief rule.
    Meaningless qualifier. Once it's revoked we can change our mind.
  • Options
    notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Slackbladder said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Slackbladder said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Dear Leavers,

    We can either Remain on current terms of rejoin soon replete with membership of the Euro and Schengen.

    Your call.

    If only it were that simple... the problem is then what happens with the 'next stage' of EU interegation..

    Staying is now however the logical choice.

    Dave’s Deal looking even better by the day.

    I wonder if that’s still available.
    A compromise would be this.


    Stay in EU
    Write into the withdrawal agreement that ANY additional 'transfer of power' to the EU must be subject to a referendum, so thats stated it law.

    That way, we stay, but the leavers get a chance to block any further change to our status and relationship with the EU.

    I'd take that, would you?
    You mean a bit like this?
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_Act_2011
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,294
    alex. said:

    There won’t be a referendum because Parliament won’t be able to agree a second (or third etc) option (other than remain) to put on the ballot paper. So the only way we remain is if we revoke without a referendum.

    So no deal must be strong favourite now.

    I’m happy with No Deal.

    Honours the referendum result and ensures we Rejoin within a decade.
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    alex. said:

    There won’t be a referendum because Parliament won’t be able to agree a second (or third etc) option (other than remain) to put on the ballot paper. So the only way we remain is if we revoke without a referendum.

    So no deal must be strong favourite now.

    Parliment sure as hell won't that happen.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    The Republican establishment can think what it likes, as long as Trump retains the support of the GOP base he will nominee again and as long as the Republicans hold the Senate he is unlikely to be successfully impeached. Indeed if the Democrats pick a left liberal populist like Sanders, Warren or Harris or Ocasio-Cortez he would have a chance of winning the general election again as indeed he would if the Democrats pick a centrist again who does not connect
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,969
    Mr. Slackbladder, that won't happen. The pro-EU types won't want to risk another chance for the Great Unwashed to stand in the way of their glorious European future.

    Mr. Eagles, someone posted here, and it had the ring of truth, that two options were being considered for a second referendum should the 11 December vote be lost.

    The first was May's Deal versus Remain.

    The second was a two stage referendum, starting Remain versus Leave, then going to May's Deal versus No Deal, should Leave win the first stage.

    How likely do you think it is, bearing in mind it would seem to be MPs generally deciding, that it'll be the former?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,294
    rcs1000 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh boy

    https://twitter.com/eucourtpress/status/1072039706123210752?s=21

    Well, that solves the requirement for unanimity for extending the deadline.

    Revocation of A50 on Tuesday... submission of A50 on Wednesday...
    Nope. That falls under the mischief rule.
    Which Article is that?
    See the Advocate General’s ruling last week.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,251
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ‘Scuse me all.

    I’m off to hum and sing ‘Ode to joy’ at the top of my lungs.

    I wouldn't go that far but it does look like it is over for brexit
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    edited December 2018
    Donny43 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Dear Leavers,

    We can either Remain on current terms of rejoin soon replete with membership of the Euro and Schengen.

    Your call.

    Euro and Schengen v WTO Leave. Let's have a referendum and settle it.
    So we either lose most of our sovereignty or trash the economy and maybe lose Scotland too?

    A comfortable majority of the country oppose both extremes
  • Options
    twistedfirestopper3twistedfirestopper3 Posts: 2,074
    We're never going to get over this, are we? On the bright side, the Tories are actual toast.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,294
    Slackbladder said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Slackbladder said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Dear Leavers,

    We can either Remain on current terms of rejoin soon replete with membership of the Euro and Schengen.

    Your call.

    If only it were that simple... the problem is then what happens with the 'next stage' of EU interegation..

    Staying is now however the logical choice.

    Dave’s Deal looking even better by the day.

    I wonder if that’s still available.
    A compromise would be this.


    Stay in EU
    Write into the withdrawal agreement that ANY additional 'transfer of power' to the EU must be subject to a referendum, so thats stated in law.

    That way, we stay, but the leavers get a chance to block any further change to our status and relationship with the EU.

    I'd take that, would you?
    Already the law thanks to Dave.
  • Options
    AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    rcs1000 said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    Gallowgate said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    another_richard said:

    Freggles said:

    It's on. Second referendum time.

    Hands up Leavers who are frit of the electorate?

    So you want a Deal vs No Deal referendum ?
    You’ve already lost one despite having the Gov of the day on your side.
    Tainted with lies and fear.
    Lies like the Treasury forecast and punishment budget you mean. Project Fear was a Remain ploy not a Leave one.
    Being wrong is not the same as lying.

    I suspect that the Treasury* believed there would be an immediate recession in the event of Brexit.

    * Not that everyone in the Treasury would think that way, but groupthink is powerful.
    The Treasury have since admitted they were very selective about the assumptions they used on Osborne’s instructions. That is lying. No doubt, when Hammond has gone, which can’t happen soon enough, a similar admission will be made.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    rcs1000 said:

    another_richard said:

    Freggles said:

    It's on. Second referendum time.

    Hands up Leavers who are frit of the electorate?

    So you want a Deal vs No Deal referendum ?
    I fear we'll get No Deal vs Remain as the referendum choice.
    No, civil servants are only drawing up Remain v Deal or Leave v Remain (and if Leave wins a Deal v No Deal choice)
  • Options
    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351
    Mr Bladder,

    "Stay in EU
    Write into the withdrawal agreement that ANY additional 'transfer of power' to the EU must be subject to a referendum, so thats stated it law."


    You're suggesting we'd then trust a government that pledges to uphold a referendum result? Really?
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,982
    Bien joué grand, Sturgeon. Although she may have inadvertently saved the England-Scotland union for now. Northern Ireland are psychologically in the departure lounge now that it's been graphically illustrated how few fucks the British establishment gives about them.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    Nigelb said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Lock him up.

    But I suspect a GOP Senate will never vote to convict Trump.

    Doesn’t matter. He’ll go to jail after he leaves office.
    Piers Morgan?
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Slackbladder said:

    alex. said:

    There won’t be a referendum because Parliament won’t be able to agree a second (or third etc) option (other than remain) to put on the ballot paper. So the only way we remain is if we revoke without a referendum.

    So no deal must be strong favourite now.

    Parliment sure as hell won't that happen.
    So you say. There may be a majority to try to prevent it, but to do so (as it is the default) you need a majority for an alternative. I don’t think there is one.

  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,914
    https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1072045265060798464?s=21
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    Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    HYUFD said:

    Donny43 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Dear Leavers,

    We can either Remain on current terms of rejoin soon replete with membership of the Euro and Schengen.

    Your call.

    Euro and Schengen v WTO Leave. Let's have a referendum and settle it.
    So we either lose moat of our sovereignty or trash the economy and maybe lose Scotland too?

    A comfortable majority of the country oppose both extremes
    A majority of the electorate want free unicorns.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    HYUFD said:

    Donny43 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Dear Leavers,

    We can either Remain on current terms of rejoin soon replete with membership of the Euro and Schengen.

    Your call.

    Euro and Schengen v WTO Leave. Let's have a referendum and settle it.
    So we either lose moat of our sovereignty or trash the economy and maybe lose Scotland too?

    A comfortable majority of the country oppose both extremes
    "moat of our sovereignty" is a rather good typo.....
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,097
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Slackbladder, that won't happen. The pro-EU types won't want to risk another chance for the Great Unwashed to stand in the way of their glorious European future.

    Mr. Eagles, someone posted here, and it had the ring of truth, that two options were being considered for a second referendum should the 11 December vote be lost.

    The first was May's Deal versus Remain.

    The second was a two stage referendum, starting Remain versus Leave, then going to May's Deal versus No Deal, should Leave win the first stage.

    How likely do you think it is, bearing in mind it would seem to be MPs generally deciding, that it'll be the former?

    I think any self-serving MP will have two priorities in this:
    (1) Not to be seen to be going against The Will Of The People.
    (2) To minimise the likelihood that they will share any responsibility for a "No Deal" outcome.
This discussion has been closed.