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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The betting markets now make it a 61% chance that Brexit won’t

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited December 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The betting markets now make it a 61% chance that Brexit won’t happen on March 29th as planned

This morning’s ruling by the ECJ that Article 50 can be revoked unilaterally changes the Brexit Debate at a critical time with MPs due to vote on the deal tomorrow evening.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,142
    Ha ha ha ha!!!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,892
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Ha ha ha ha!!!

    It's wicked to mock the afflicted!
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,417
    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Slackbladder said:

    grabcocque said:

    Slackbladder said:

    grabcocque said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    grabcocque said:

    I think maybe we should have a PB moratorium on threats of violence.

    grabcocque said:


    COME AND HAVE A GO IF YOU THINK YOU'RE HARD ENOUGH.

    Physician heal thyself!
    YOU WANT SOME? YOU FOOKIN WANT SOME?
    This isn't Guido Fawke's site...please.
    It's ridiculous, prima facie, to think that anyone is going to be cowed by threats of violence from Yaxley-Lennon and his band of merry fuckwits.
    Thats true. I doubt people will be marching in the streets in their millions. If there is a 'backlash' it will be increased disillusionment, and risk of low turnouts, making a breakthrough by a far-right, or far left extremists higher.
    The EU elections will be the perfect place to make a protest vote.
    For sure, People will be looking for the biggest loons to elect. And, it seems many European voters want some of that too.
    As Alanbrooke rightly said in his excellent article yesterday, the cosy 2/3-party consensus within the EP may be about to break down in a big way. The UK's withdrawal helps the Europhile centre a little, removing the sizable UKIP and Con blocks, but that's likely to be more than offset by gains by the Eurosceptics, radicals, populists and extremists elsewhere.

    For example, the 2014 EP elections in Italy returned (party-group / % / MEPs)

    Dem - S&D / 41% / 31
    M5S - EFDD / 21% / 17
    FI - EPP / 17% / 13
    Lega - NI / 6% / 5
    NCR - EPP / 4% / 3

    By contrast, current polling puts Lega on 34% or so with M5S on around 25%. Neither of these now sits in one of the centrist/traditional three blocs - which probably means that Italy will return around two-thirds of its MEPs to awkward squads.

    Italy is, to some extent, exceptional but Germany and France could easily each return around half their MEPs outside of the centre-right / centre-left / liberal groupings. Even including the Greens as part of that consensus (which is a bit dubious), doesn't lift the numbers that high.

    Europe has changed a lot in five years, and is still changing.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    This here oral statement at 3.30pm is going to be quite something. How would you like your crow served, Prime Minister?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,087
    Nobody. Has. A. Clue........
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited December 2018
    AlastairMeeks said:

    This here oral statement at 3.30pm is going to be quite something. How would you like your crow served, Prime Minister?

    I would be tempted to start by saying "Mr Speaker, Something has changed."
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    What on earth is she going to say.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    DanSmith said:

    What on earth is she going to say.

    She might just regale us with a rendition of The Impossible Dream
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,564
    Only moving in one direction now. Can no dealers obstruct enough to ensure the default? I don't think they can but it may take a few months, right up to the wire.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,142
    AlastairMeeks said:

    This here oral statement at 3.30pm is going to be quite something. How would you like your crow served, Prime Minister?

    Strong and stable remember. She absolutely continues to enjotthe support of her cabinet, her party and indeed the Commons having successfully toured the UK persuading people thtther deal is all they ever wanted. So pulling the meaningful vote is of course perfectly sensible as her Chief Whip informs her the government would win by 200.

    Surely anything other than her reaigbresig will unleash the twin hells of 480 letters to Graham Brady and a VONC?
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    DanSmith said:

    What on earth is she going to say.

    Declare war on Andorra as a diversionary tactic.
  • PeterMannionPeterMannion Posts: 712
    Massive miscalculation by May (again)

    Genuine reason for resigning, 48 letter or HoC VoNC

    To try and fail is one thing. To not even try...
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    WHAT
    A
    JOKE.


    Lucky I didn't take up PtP's generous 6/4 double !
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    https://twitter.com/CommonsLeader/status/1072101585227038720

    Barclay is basically in charge of no deal planning isn't he?

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,789
    PeterMannion said:

    Massive miscalculation by May (again)

    Genuine reason for resigning, 48 letter or HoC VoNC

    To try and fail is one thing. To not even try...

    Personally, I'd prefer to put it to the vote, and then step down when it was rejected.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,892
    Andrew said:

    DanSmith said:

    What on earth is she going to say.

    Declare war on Andorra as a diversionary tactic.
    Risky!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,124
    Shares in popcorn supplier, Popcorn2U, have hit a seven year high on FTSE 350.
  • XenonXenon Posts: 471
    is it confirmed the vote is cancelled?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    May is utterly unfit to be PM.

    Seriously, end this .
  • eekeek Posts: 24,919
    https://twitter.com/labourwhips/status/1072099624364707840
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I suspect that the vote is being delayed to give time for the PM to ask for something at this week's summit.

    It has long been thought that she would be seeking "concessions" at this summit, the only difference now is there will be no vote before it. Mrs May lives to fight another day.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,124
    DanSmith said:

    What on earth is she going to say.

    Abba to reform and play Wembley?
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    I was assured on here yesterday by PB finest minds that May could not pull the vote.
    What has changed ?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,789
    Floater said:

    May is utterly unfit to be PM.

    Seriously, end this .

    The problem we have is that not one of the other 649 MPs is fitter to be PM.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,881
    May to survive to 2019 is the political equivalent of backing Many Clouds in the Jan 2017 Cotswold Chase.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,218
    DanSmith said:

    What on earth is she going to say.

    I am off to enjoy Xmas - all the best !!!!!
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,987
    DanSmith said:

    What on earth is she going to say.

    Possibilities (not in order of probability):

    1. Resign
    2. Free vote on her deal (to avoid cabinet resignations)
    3. Re-negotiate with EU (kick the can)
    4. Let the people decide

    Any other possibilities?
    What is the most probable?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Sean_F said:

    Floater said:

    May is utterly unfit to be PM.

    Seriously, end this .

    The problem we have is that not one of the other 649 MPs is fitter to be PM.
    Sadly, you may be right.

    What a state of affairs.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Yorkcity said:

    I was assured on here yesterday by PB finest minds that May could not pull the vote.
    What has changed ?

    Good question. She still needs to get a vote through Parliament, I understand, to get the vote pulled.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Surely anything other than her reaigbresig

    She can't even resign coherently.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Yorkcity said:

    I was assured on here yesterday by PB finest minds that May could not pull the vote.
    What has changed ?

    Nothing yet. It's far more likely that it is being delayed slightly.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    OldKingCole said:

    Andrew said:

    DanSmith said:

    What on earth is she going to say.

    Declare war on Andorra as a diversionary tactic.
    Risky!
    With May in charge they would win

    She would also be great in the surrender negotiations .........
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,752
    The consenus down the pub last week ( anecdote alert ) wasnt so much about whether Mrs Mays deal was good or bad, but rather that all our politicans didnt give a damn about the electorate. Maybe nobody is going to come out of this well,
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,881
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Yorkcity said:

    I was assured on here yesterday by PB finest minds that May could not pull the vote.
    What has changed ?

    Good question. She still needs to get a vote through Parliament, I understand, to get the vote pulled.
    Grieve might be able to conjure something up !
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,797
    edited December 2018
    Meaningful vote delayed = amendments to the meaningful vote jettisoned and have to be brought again next time?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,564
    I've given May credit where due but she has totally lost my respect and sympathy if the MV does not happen. It was lost big anyway if losing it is such a problem what the flying heck was the point of debating it for days?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,892
    Sean_F said:

    Floater said:

    May is utterly unfit to be PM.

    Seriously, end this .

    The problem we have is that not one of the other 649 MPs is fitter to be PM.
    Keir Starmer?
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    I can't see what other option she had. There was no way she could countenance losing by 200 votes, and she would've been lucky to do that well.

    On her right the Brexiteers will never compromise and on her left the Remainers will never compromise.

    Only option is a GE and let the chips fall where they may. Likely outcome - Corbyn as PM.
  • XenonXenon Posts: 471
    kle4 said:

    I've given May credit where due but she has totally lost my respect and sympathy if the MV does not happen. It was lost big anyway if losing it is such a problem what the flying heck was the point of debating it for days?

    She was dithering hoping something would turn up. She really does seem clueless.

    At least if the vote was lost she could go back to the EU and say we need to renegotiate or no deal it is.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,564
    PeterMannion said:

    Massive miscalculation by May (again)

    Genuine reason for resigning, 48 letter or HoC VoNC

    To try and fail is one thing. To not even try...

    Well indeed. And now hundreds of mps are off the hook. I'm sure most would have voted as they said they would but we will never know.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Maybe she got some encouraging signals from her conversations with EU leaders over the weekend?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,124
    Barnesian said:

    DanSmith said:

    What on earth is she going to say.

    Possibilities (not in order of probability):

    1. Resign
    2. Free vote on her deal (to avoid cabinet resignations)
    3. Re-negotiate with EU (kick the can)
    4. Let the people decide

    Any other possibilities?
    What is the most probable?
    3. At least at this stage. Even if she flies out and they tell her to do one, she has been allowed three or four more days in Downing Street.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,564
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Maybe she got some encouraging signals from her conversations with EU leaders over the weekend?

    Like the ones we were told were occurring over the summer before they announced Chequers was a pile of nonsense?

    They want us to remain. Holding firm increases that chance.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Xenon said:

    kle4 said:

    I've given May credit where due but she has totally lost my respect and sympathy if the MV does not happen. It was lost big anyway if losing it is such a problem what the flying heck was the point of debating it for days?

    She was dithering hoping something would turn up. She really does seem clueless.

    At least if the vote was lost she could go back to the EU and say we need to renegotiate or no deal it is.
    Why can't she do that before the vote, if it can be done at all? The EU is not completely stupid, it knows that the vote can't be won as things stand.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Yorkcity said:

    I was assured on here yesterday by PB finest minds that May could not pull the vote.
    What has changed ?

    Nothing yet. It's far more likely that it is being delayed slightly.
    Good thing May's moved the process along so quickly and we have plenty of time left, then.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    edited December 2018
    I don't think she's going to do anything other than fight on - she will say she had "listened" and commit to gaining concessions on the backstop at the upcoming summit. Vote in January. May enters the NY still PM and I claim my £5. Quite a survivalist.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,564
    Fenster said:

    I can't see what other option she had. There was no way she could countenance losing by 200 votes, and she would've been lucky to do that well.

    .

    Yes she could. And go down with dignity.
  • XenonXenon Posts: 471
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Xenon said:

    kle4 said:

    I've given May credit where due but she has totally lost my respect and sympathy if the MV does not happen. It was lost big anyway if losing it is such a problem what the flying heck was the point of debating it for days?

    She was dithering hoping something would turn up. She really does seem clueless.

    At least if the vote was lost she could go back to the EU and say we need to renegotiate or no deal it is.
    Why can't she do that before the vote, if it can be done at all? The EU is not completely stupid, it knows that the vote can't be won as things stand.
    It honestly wouldn't surprise me if she told the EU she could win the vote.

    It's now dawning on her that she can't.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,914
    Alanbrooke said:

    The consenus down the pub last week ( anecdote alert ) wasnt so much about whether Mrs Mays deal was good or bad, but rather that all our politicans didnt give a damn about the electorate. Maybe nobody is going to come out of this well,

    It is an absolute clusterfuck!! Our political class is beyond redemption.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,564
    OldKingCole said:

    Sean_F said:

    Floater said:

    May is utterly unfit to be PM.

    Seriously, end this .

    The problem we have is that not one of the other 649 MPs is fitter to be PM.
    Keir Starmer?
    A snake. But competent.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,892
    I suppose one ought to be sorry for the Queen. Can't settle down to an afternoons TV since she'll be worrying that Theresa May might turn up at any moment.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,350
    I think we should call the Remain fanatics - those that refuse to accept that they lost the referendum - the TMs.

    aka The Mardy-arses. Very appropriate.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,124
    OldKingCole said:

    Sean_F said:

    Floater said:

    May is utterly unfit to be PM.

    Seriously, end this .

    The problem we have is that not one of the other 649 MPs is fitter to be PM.
    Keir Starmer?
    Ken Clarke is the only person with the necessary experience in HoC at this crucial crisis point, but obviously comes with the whole europhile baggage.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1072105221764104192
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Mrs May latest plan has been uncovered...

    https://twitter.com/jukka34/status/1072100948766539781
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    kle4 said:

    Fenster said:

    I can't see what other option she had. There was no way she could countenance losing by 200 votes, and she would've been lucky to do that well.

    .

    Yes she could. And go down with dignity.
    There's no dignity in losing by that much. It's the equivalent of being told you're shit.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,752
    SouthamObserver said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    The consenus down the pub last week ( anecdote alert ) wasnt so much about whether Mrs Mays deal was good or bad, but rather that all our politicans didnt give a damn about the electorate. Maybe nobody is going to come out of this well,

    It is an absolute clusterfuck!! Our political class is beyond redemption.

    this cohort yes, but things will change as they always do. More important is do the policies change ? I sincerely hope so.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,789
    rottenborough said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Sean_F said:

    Floater said:

    May is utterly unfit to be PM.

    Seriously, end this .

    The problem we have is that not one of the other 649 MPs is fitter to be PM.
    Keir Starmer?
    Ken Clarke is the only person with the necessary experience in HoC at this crucial crisis point, but obviously comes with the whole europhile baggage.
    Funnily enough I was thinking he could be the best of a bad bunch. At least you know where you stand with him.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578
    KentRising said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I suspect that the vote is being delayed to give time for the PM to ask for something at this week's summit.

    It has long been thought that she would be seeking "concessions" at this summit, the only difference now is there will be no vote before it. Mrs May lives to fight another day.
    But what is the point of the EU offering her concessions when they know she cannot deliver?

    This is the end of the road for her I think.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,892
    rottenborough said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Sean_F said:

    Floater said:

    May is utterly unfit to be PM.

    Seriously, end this .

    The problem we have is that not one of the other 649 MPs is fitter to be PM.
    Keir Starmer?
    Ken Clarke is the only person with the necessary experience in HoC at this crucial crisis point, but obviously comes with the whole europhile baggage.
    Good point.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    kle4 said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Maybe she got some encouraging signals from her conversations with EU leaders over the weekend?

    Like the ones we were told were occurring over the summer before they announced Chequers was a pile of nonsense?

    They want us to remain. Holding firm increases that chance.
    It increases the chance of Revoke, but it also increases the chance of a No Deal disaster. My guess is that the EU27 leaders will want to help Mrs May, but only within very limited parameters, and I don't expect it to make much difference.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,279
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    WHAT
    A
    JOKE.


    Lucky I didn't take up PtP's generous 6/4 double !

    Alright, you can have 13/8.

    You drive a hard bargain, young man.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    KentRising said:

    I don't think she's going to do anything other than fight on - she will say she had "listened" and commit to gaining concessions on the backstop at the upcoming summit. Vote in January. May enters the NY still PM and I claim my £5. Quite a survivalist.

    If the ERG had any political nous at all, some of them would have cultivated some relationships with discontented Remain-leaning Tories and would be coordinating with them to announce that they've put letters in this evening or (more likely) tomorrow.

    From what we've seen so far though, they don't seem capable of anything beyond bluster.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    To be fair to the Brexiteer rebels, if (and it's a big if) the EU make some meaningful concessions over the backstop then their strategy will have been vindicated.

    Personally I think it's more likely, in light of the court judgement, that the EU are shaping up to make a big "Remain on these better terms" offer.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,564
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Xenon said:

    kle4 said:

    I've given May credit where due but she has totally lost my respect and sympathy if the MV does not happen. It was lost big anyway if losing it is such a problem what the flying heck was the point of debating it for days?

    She was dithering hoping something would turn up. She really does seem clueless.

    At least if the vote was lost she could go back to the EU and say we need to renegotiate or no deal it is.
    Why can't she do that before the vote, if it can be done at all? The EU is not completely stupid, it knows that the vote can't be won as things stand.
    But why should they even consider talking again until parliament formally considers their offer? Given they and parliament are both seeking the same aim - remain - they've no incentive to make leaving easier.
  • PloppikinsPloppikins Posts: 126
    Pulpstar said:

    May to survive to 2019 is the political equivalent of backing Many Clouds in the Jan 2017 Cotswold Chase.

    A reference for the youngsters there.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,592
    Floater said:

    May is utterly unfit to be PM.

    Seriously, end this .

    She should have gone long ago. But better late than never.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,564
    Tissue_Price said:

    To be fair to the Brexiteer rebels, if (and it's a big if) the EU make some meaningful concessions over the backstop then their strategy will have been vindicated.

    Personally I think it's more likely, in light of the court judgement, that the EU are shaping up to make a big "Remain on these better terms" offer.

    I hope the rebels are right. But given how petrified so many mps are of no deal, and how many want to remain, I cannot see it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,124
    anothernick said:

    KentRising said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I suspect that the vote is being delayed to give time for the PM to ask for something at this week's summit.

    It has long been thought that she would be seeking "concessions" at this summit, the only difference now is there will be no vote before it. Mrs May lives to fight another day.
    But what is the point of the EU offering her concessions when they know she cannot deliver?

    This is the end of the road for her I think.
    There is no concession they can offer her. The deal is falling apart because of the backstop and EU will not allow an escape clause in the backstop because then it is not a backstop.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,881
    Tissue_Price said:

    To be fair to the Brexiteer rebels, if (and it's a big if) the EU make some meaningful concessions over the backstop then their strategy will have been vindicated.

    Personally I think it's more likely, in light of the court judgement, that the EU are shaping up to make a big "Remain on these better terms" offer.

    Would a parliamentary lock from transition to backstop/FTA be OK ? THey keep getting our money during transition.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,549
    MarqueeMark said:

    Nobody. Has. A. Clue........

    https://twitter.com/ianjamesparsley/status/1072105343545720833?s=21
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,218
    Stereotomy said:

    KentRising said:

    I don't think she's going to do anything other than fight on - she will say she had "listened" and commit to gaining concessions on the backstop at the upcoming summit. Vote in January. May enters the NY still PM and I claim my £5. Quite a survivalist.

    If the ERG had any political nous at all, some of them would have cultivated some relationships with discontented Remain-leaning Tories and would be coordinating with them to announce that they've put letters in this evening or (more likely) tomorrow.

    From what we've seen so far though, they don't seem capable of anything beyond bluster.
    The one issue that requires caution is there is a good chance TM could win and then cannot be moved for 12 months
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,350
    Mr Brooke,

    I detect (drunken anecdote alert) three groupings. Brexit voters who will go ballistic, Remain voters who have gone quiet (I think they feel a little guilty that the referendum will be ignored) and Remain voters who don't give a monkeys for democracy and never did anyway,
  • glwglw Posts: 9,548
    Alanbrooke said:

    The consenus down the pub last week ( anecdote alert ) wasnt so much about whether Mrs Mays deal was good or bad, but rather that all our politicans didnt give a damn about the electorate. Maybe nobody is going to come out of this well,

    I've always held a low opinion of politicians, but it has never been lower. The "national interest" doesn't seem to get a look in. Our politicians are either eyeing up general elections and leadership elections, or they are looking for cover/events to absolve them of responsibility for something they overwhelmingly voted for. There's maybe 10-20% of our MPs I don't find contemptible, and I don't think all that highly of that tranche either.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Tissue_Price said:

    To be fair to the Brexiteer rebels, if (and it's a big if) the EU make some meaningful concessions over the backstop then their strategy will have been vindicated.

    But only if they then accept the concessions, and the deal goes through. Given how much they've been shouting the deal is an abomination, that's going to be a difficult U-turn, and meanwhile they've stirred up the 2nd referendum hornet's nest.
  • tottenhamWCtottenhamWC Posts: 352
    Sean_F said:

    rottenborough said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Sean_F said:

    Floater said:

    May is utterly unfit to be PM.

    Seriously, end this .

    The problem we have is that not one of the other 649 MPs is fitter to be PM.
    Keir Starmer?
    Ken Clarke is the only person with the necessary experience in HoC at this crucial crisis point, but obviously comes with the whole europhile baggage.
    Funnily enough I was thinking he could be the best of a bad bunch. At least you know where you stand with him.
    If we had more people in the HoC like him we wouldn't be in such a mess.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1072104613409644545?s=19

    Calm and measured as always.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,564
    anothernick said:

    KentRising said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I suspect that the vote is being delayed to give time for the PM to ask for something at this week's summit.

    It has long been thought that she would be seeking "concessions" at this summit, the only difference now is there will be no vote before it. Mrs May lives to fight another day.
    But what is the point of the EU offering her concessions when they know she cannot deliver?

    This is the end of the road for her I think.
    Hence why a vote and resignation was the way to go. Allowed for a new attempt however unrealistic. But no, avoid a humiliating defeat...by acknowledging you were to be humiatingly defeated. Right.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pulpstar said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    To be fair to the Brexiteer rebels, if (and it's a big if) the EU make some meaningful concessions over the backstop then their strategy will have been vindicated.

    Personally I think it's more likely, in light of the court judgement, that the EU are shaping up to make a big "Remain on these better terms" offer.

    Would a parliamentary lock from transition to backstop/FTA be OK ? THey keep getting our money during transition.
    Well that equates, in practical terms, to endless transition.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Stereotomy said:

    KentRising said:

    I don't think she's going to do anything other than fight on - she will say she had "listened" and commit to gaining concessions on the backstop at the upcoming summit. Vote in January. May enters the NY still PM and I claim my £5. Quite a survivalist.

    If the ERG had any political nous at all, some of them would have cultivated some relationships with discontented Remain-leaning Tories and would be coordinating with them to announce that they've put letters in this evening or (more likely) tomorrow.

    From what we've seen so far though, they don't seem capable of anything beyond bluster.
    The one issue that requires caution is there is a good chance TM could win and then cannot be moved for 12 months
    Well, it depends what she says at 3.30, but if it's generally agreed to be crap, that will probably be the best shot they'll have had so far. Then again, if she's only delaying for a week, they may be better off waiting.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    To be fair to the Brexiteer rebels, if (and it's a big if) the EU make some meaningful concessions over the backstop then their strategy will have been vindicated.

    But only if they then accept the concessions, and the deal goes through. Given how much they've been shouting the deal is an abomination, that's going to be a difficult U-turn, and meanwhile they've stirred up the 2nd referendum hornet's nest.
    Yes, having had their strategy vindicated, many of them still wouldn't vote for it. The deal would still need some cross-party support (or abstention).
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    To be fair to the Brexiteer rebels, if (and it's a big if) the EU make some meaningful concessions over the backstop then their strategy will have been vindicated.

    But only if they then accept the concessions, and the deal goes through. Given how much they've been shouting the deal is an abomination, that's going to be a difficult U-turn, and meanwhile they've stirred up the 2nd referendum hornet's nest.
    It wouldn't be a U-turn if the concessions were significant. Though as others have said, I don't see why the EU would make that offer.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,789
    glw said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    The consenus down the pub last week ( anecdote alert ) wasnt so much about whether Mrs Mays deal was good or bad, but rather that all our politicans didnt give a damn about the electorate. Maybe nobody is going to come out of this well,

    I've always held a low opinion of politicians, but it has never been lower. The "national interest" doesn't seem to get a look in. Our politicians are either eyeing up general elections and leadership elections, or they are looking for cover/events to absolve them of responsibility for something they overwhelmingly voted for. There's maybe 10-20% of our MPs I don't find contemptible, and I don't think all that highly of that tranche either.
    It's not even the manoeuvering for advantage that annoys me so much, as the evasion of responsibility.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,300
    kle4 said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Sean_F said:

    Floater said:

    May is utterly unfit to be PM.

    Seriously, end this .

    The problem we have is that not one of the other 649 MPs is fitter to be PM.
    Keir Starmer?
    A snake. But competent.
    About the best CV we can hope for in a potential PM nowadays :)
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    Jacob knows about incompetence himself...

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1072107021057622016
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,752
    CD13 said:

    Mr Brooke,

    I detect (drunken anecdote alert) three groupings. Brexit voters who will go ballistic, Remain voters who have gone quiet (I think they feel a little guilty that the referendum will be ignored) and Remain voters who don't give a monkeys for democracy and never did anyway,

    Not far off that myself except I would say we are probably 40% leave, 40% stay and 20% wibble.

    The problem for the political parties is that the wobbly centre can turn on a 50 cent piece and what was a winner last week will be a millstobe next. This basically comes down to a lack of clear leadership and not enough people having any real enthusiasm for the European project.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,926
    This ECJ ruling and the fact May is delaying the Meaningful Vote to see if she can get any concession from Brussels (very unlikely) means EUref2 looks increasingly likely as neither Deal or No Deal has a majority in the Commons unlike EUref2, maybe with an extension of Article 50 for a few months to allow it to take place as the EU is reportedly open to.

    Based on civil servants reported preparations yesterday the question would be either Deal v Remain or Leave v Remain and if Leave won a second Leave with Deal or No Deal question
  • glwglw Posts: 9,548
    Tissue_Price said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    To be fair to the Brexiteer rebels, if (and it's a big if) the EU make some meaningful concessions over the backstop then their strategy will have been vindicated.

    Personally I think it's more likely, in light of the court judgement, that the EU are shaping up to make a big "Remain on these better terms" offer.

    Would a parliamentary lock from transition to backstop/FTA be OK ? THey keep getting our money during transition.
    Well that equates, in practical terms, to endless transition.
    Exactly, it would be another backstop in effect.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,218
    Stereotomy said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Stereotomy said:

    KentRising said:

    I don't think she's going to do anything other than fight on - she will say she had "listened" and commit to gaining concessions on the backstop at the upcoming summit. Vote in January. May enters the NY still PM and I claim my £5. Quite a survivalist.

    If the ERG had any political nous at all, some of them would have cultivated some relationships with discontented Remain-leaning Tories and would be coordinating with them to announce that they've put letters in this evening or (more likely) tomorrow.

    From what we've seen so far though, they don't seem capable of anything beyond bluster.
    The one issue that requires caution is there is a good chance TM could win and then cannot be moved for 12 months
    Well, it depends what she says at 3.30, but if it's generally agreed to be crap, that will probably be the best shot they'll have had so far. Then again, if she's only delaying for a week, they may be better off waiting.
    It is a difficult judgement. Even I do not want TM locked into another 12 months

    I want her to take this as far as the vote and we all need to be mindful the public do like her
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,549
    Alanbrooke said:

    The consenus down the pub last week ( anecdote alert ) wasnt so much about whether Mrs Mays deal was good or bad, but rather that all our politicans didnt give a damn about the electorate. Maybe nobody is going to come out of this well,

    Yes. We see the details. Most don’t.

    “It’s a mess”

    “Changed your minds?”

    (pretty please....)


  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    anothernick said:

    KentRising said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I suspect that the vote is being delayed to give time for the PM to ask for something at this week's summit.

    It has long been thought that she would be seeking "concessions" at this summit, the only difference now is there will be no vote before it. Mrs May lives to fight another day.
    But what is the point of the EU offering her concessions when they know she cannot deliver?

    This is the end of the road for her I think.
    She can deliver if they drop the backstop. Will they?

    I think not to May. Not without a vote first. They'd sooner push us to revoke with May in charge.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,279
    The Vote is being delayed?

    But I heard Mr Gove on the radio this morning saying it wouldn't be. Surely he wasn't fibbing?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,789
    Maybe they should delay the MV till March 28th 2019.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    WHAT
    A
    JOKE.


    Lucky I didn't take up PtP's generous 6/4 double !

    Alright, you can have 13/8.

    You drive a hard bargain, young man.
    I've had to bet on another no-brainer free-money oppo, John Bercow as next Tory leader....
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    edited December 2018
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    The Vote is being delayed?

    But I heard Mr Gove on the radio this morning saying it wouldn't be. Surely he wasn't fibbing?

    One of the upsides of the current political chaos is it provides May with a lot of opportunities to prank her cabinet.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,926
    edited December 2018
    Fenster said:

    I can't see what other option she had. There was no way she could countenance losing by 200 votes, and she would've been lucky to do that well.

    On her right the Brexiteers will never compromise and on her left the Remainers will never compromise.

    Only option is a GE and let the chips fall where they may. Likely outcome - Corbyn as PM.

    GE also solves nothing as even if Corbyn became PM also clear no majority in the Commons for his Brexit but with permanent Customs Union but not Single Market either
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,959
    Time to throw May overboard.

    Mr. Punter, to be fair to Gove, that was likely before May's decisive conference call to hold a vote on delaying the vote on making a decision.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Stereotomy said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Stereotomy said:

    KentRising said:

    I don't think she's going to do anything other than fight on - she will say she had "listened" and commit to gaining concessions on the backstop at the upcoming summit. Vote in January. May enters the NY still PM and I claim my £5. Quite a survivalist.

    If the ERG had any political nous at all, some of them would have cultivated some relationships with discontented Remain-leaning Tories and would be coordinating with them to announce that they've put letters in this evening or (more likely) tomorrow.

    From what we've seen so far though, they don't seem capable of anything beyond bluster.
    The one issue that requires caution is there is a good chance TM could win and then cannot be moved for 12 months
    Well, it depends what she says at 3.30, but if it's generally agreed to be crap, that will probably be the best shot they'll have had so far. Then again, if she's only delaying for a week, they may be better off waiting.
    It is a difficult judgement. Even I do not want TM locked into another 12 months

    I want her to take this as far as the vote and we all need to be mindful the public do like her
    They tolerate her. That's more than most politicians but I don't think they like her.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    OldKingCole said:

    Sean_F said:

    Floater said:

    May is utterly unfit to be PM.

    Seriously, end this .

    The problem we have is that not one of the other 649 MPs is fitter to be PM.
    Keir Starmer?
    Dear god no.

    I would however accept Ed Balls right now!!!


    That's how bad it is.......
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    HYUFD said:

    Fenster said:

    I can't see what other option she had. There was no way she could countenance losing by 200 votes, and she would've been lucky to do that well.

    On her right the Brexiteers will never compromise and on her left the Remainers will never compromise.

    Only option is a GE and let the chips fall where they may. Likely outcome - Corbyn as PM.

    GE also solves nothing as even if Corbyn became PM also clear no majority in the Commons for his Brexit but with permanent Customs Union but not Single Market either
    What? Haven't you been saying he'd get it through?
This discussion has been closed.