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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Confirmed – 48 letters have been received by Graham Brady and

SystemSystem Posts: 11,008
edited December 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Confirmed – 48 letters have been received by Graham Brady and TMay could be voted out tonight

So the rumours that we were hearing last night were correct. The names have gone in to the chairman of the 1922 committee, Graham Brady, and now we have a confidence vote taking place.

Read the full story here


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Comments

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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,226
    edited December 2018
    First! Like Mrs M
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,437
    I just realised the poor woman is going to have to do PMQs at 12 too!
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Tories, eh? What are you like?
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,692
    What happened to my "First like Theresa May and Leave" exhortation? Is something happening?
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    argh! Vanilla ate my post!
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Well now.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    And I was so looking forward to that thread on AV.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    She's dodged one vote this week; I think she'll dodge this one and resign.
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    FF43 said:

    What happened to my "First like Theresa May and Leave" exhortation? Is something happening?

    You too? Vanilla must have been hungry this morning :)
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    FF43 said:

    What happened to my "First like Theresa May and Leave" exhortation? Is something happening?

    If you click on your name, then comments, you will see Vanilla still has it.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I wonder if the Australian phrase "leadership spill" is going to catch on in this country.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,027
    https://twitter.com/skynewsbreak/status/1072765936866861056?s=21
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141
    Say what you like about David Cameron, he doesn't delete his tweets.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,226
    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:

    BRACE! BRACE!

    https://twitter.com/KatySearle/status/1072765719442612224

    Oh, nothing has changed...?

    Caution - if she resigns, there won't be a vote and those free money bets are LOST
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    The risk of May being bomb-proof with a general election looming is what dooms her.

    Tom Peck of the Independent on SKY says she will lose it comfortably.
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    Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,300
    Last week, I’d have said she was safe via this process.

    I still think most would give her the benefit of the doubt for now (especially given the fear of who follows).

    But the anger about the cancelled vote, and the fact those supporting her are backing her for a year without further challenge, makes me think that’s by no means certain. And even if she scrapes it she has some thinking to do... because the forthcoming parliamentary shenanigans is no place for a leader who’s lost the publicly-if-anonymously-stated confidence of 40pc of her party.
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    CiceroCicero Posts: 2,201
    Idling wondering how the Conservatives can survive... The mutual loathing and bitterness, which they have for each other and which they have inflicted on the country, now seems to have reached escape velocity.
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    tlg86 said:

    She's dodged one vote this week; I think she'll dodge this one and resign.

    If she wins by one vote, she will stay as Leader until they pry her fingers from the leavers of power. She does not seem to take hints...
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    tlg86 said:

    She's dodged one vote this week; I think she'll dodge this one and resign.

    Why would she resign when she might still get 80% support from Tory MPs?
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    Jonathan said:

    Tories, eh? What are you like?

    Brutal at removing PMs or LotO that don't cut it. Look and learn, Labour, look and learn.....
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    Beverley_C said:

    tlg86 said:

    She's dodged one vote this week; I think she'll dodge this one and resign.

    If she wins by one vote, she will stay as Leader until they pry her fingers from the leavers of power. She does not seem to take hints...
    Her problem has been the lack of leavers of power.....
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    Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,300
    By the way.. I doubt she would, but can she pull a Major, quit today and stand? It would be a way of dodging the prohibition on her standing in case of a loss. And in keeping with the can-kicking modus operandi.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,914
    The sheer selfishness of the Conservative party and its contempt for voters never ceases to amaze.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,532
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/skynewsbreak/status/1072765936866861056?s=21

    Time for that long walk into the sunset. Better than being dragged out screaming for mercy.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    MarqueeMark said:

    The risk of May being bomb-proof with a general election looming is what dooms her.

    Tom Peck of the Independent on SKY says she will lose it comfortably.

    If that happens the only way to avoid a long Tory leadership contest in the country is if just one candidate comes forward to replace her, but that seems very unlikely.
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    numbertwelve said:

    I just realised the poor woman is going to have to do PMQs at 12 too!

    No-one particularly sticks out on the order paper for PMQs. Maybe Mary Creagh will impress?
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    TMay crashes out before Spurs....

    madness.
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    YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    What ever happens today we eliminate one hypothetical. The great winnowing of Brexit outcomes begins.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,226
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:

    BRACE! BRACE!

    https://twitter.com/KatySearle/status/1072765719442612224

    Oh, nothing has changed...?

    Caution - if she resigns, there won't be a vote and those free money bets are LOST
    £10,000 of the BFE money has been matched in the last five minutes. All lost if she resigns.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited December 2018
    The public have seen a very courageous woman fighting her corner against some pretty unpleasant people. This can only do the Tory Party enormous damage. All the stereotypes that attach themselves to the party including misogyny and downright nastiness will be proven beyond reasonable doubt. There will be a lot of sympathy for Mrs May whatever happens.
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    MarqueeMark said:

    Jonathan said:

    Tories, eh? What are you like?

    Brutal at removing PMs or LotO that don't cut it. Look and learn, Labour, look and learn.....
    Brutal? Perhaps..
    but not decisive - they have been twaddling around this for weeks. I wonder if JRM will claim any credit to try and restore his decreased authority?
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    MarqueeMark said:

    Jonathan said:

    Tories, eh? What are you like?

    Brutal at removing PMs or LotO that don't cut it. Look and learn, Labour, look and learn.....
    Really good warning of what not to do. Labour had its problems 2007-10, but now looks like a textbook for how to manage a party in a crisis. We now know that it’s important to avoid calling unnecessary general elections, how to avoid leadership elections and that the value you get by burying the hatchet to pull in your best talent to fight a solid campaign,
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,298
    The thing that might save Mrs May is the prospect of Boris, Gove, or an ERGer succeeding her.
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Cicero said:

    Idling wondering how the Conservatives can survive... The mutual loathing and bitterness, which they have for each other and which they have inflicted on the country, now seems to have reached escape velocity.

    A shared loathing of Labour might be enough to keep them together.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    Foxy said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/skynewsbreak/status/1072765936866861056?s=21

    Time for that long walk into the sunset. Better than being dragged out screaming for mercy.
    She will likely have some idea of just how many letters have gone in. The Whips will have been getting a running commentary on her deal - and her status within the party. She must have a good idea how this will turn out.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,907
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The thing that might save Mrs May is the prospect of Boris, Gove, or an ERGer succeeding her.

    A commitment from Boris not to run might work... except the MPs who don't trust him, don't trust him.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The thing that might save Mrs May is the prospect of Boris, Gove, or an ERGer succeeding her.

    Does she want to survive? Everyone keeps saying that she's safe for a year if she wins the vote, but does she want that? It would almost become he duty to stay for at least a year.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,298
    https://twitter.com/steven_swinford/status/1072767584938942464?s=21
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    edited December 2018
    Anna Soubry backs May while attacking Owen Patterson and the ERG


    https://mobile.twitter.com/Anna_Soubry/status/1072754552225583104
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    SKY: an unnamed MP prominent supporter of T May in 2016 says "It's over". Blames the amateur Whips and the Number 10 staff for where she is.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,581
    HYUFD said:

    Anna Soubry backs May

    Yesterday she shared a platform with those calling for a VONC in the government.

    Make your mind up Anna!
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    DruttDrutt Posts: 1,093
    Can Sunil or TSE make me a bar chart with "Years since Con PM ousted because of something other than Europe", value 44, and "Years since Con PM ousted because Europe", which will either be 2 or 0 depending on when today you make it.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,226
    She certainly has a lot more sympathy and support from the public than from politicians, so a public statement makes sense.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    No government crest on the plinth yet.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    Cicero said:

    Idling wondering how the Conservatives can survive... The mutual loathing and bitterness, which they have for each other and which they have inflicted on the country, now seems to have reached escape velocity.

    A majority of Labour MPs no confidenced Corbyn, the Tories will survive regardless even if divided
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,969
    FPT Mr. S, you're welcome but I should say my record in such matters (the splendid Lib Dem leadership election and Macron's victory aside) has been, er, dire.

    Anyway, my total stake was tiny.

    On topic: if not now, when?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Both John Pienaar and Laura Kuenssberg think the vote tonight could be close.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,298
    edited December 2018
    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The thing that might save Mrs May is the prospect of Boris, Gove, or an ERGer succeeding her.

    Does she want to survive? Everyone keeps saying that she's safe for a year if she wins the vote, but does she want that? It would almost become he duty to stay for at least a year.
    A fortnight ago I spoke to someone who worked for Theresa May and they said she wouldn’t be want to be responsible for a No Deal Brexit that sees a meds shortage.

    She doesn’t want that on her conscience.

    As a diabetic she knows how important this is.

    In the event of a meds shortage Leavers won’t be safe, the UK won’t be pleasant.

    Those gallows on display on Sunday may end up being used by those impacted by a meds shortage or their family.
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    AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    edited December 2018
    May will win tonight but hopefully the numbers voting against her will be large enough to persuade her to step down. Her deal is a failure and won’t get through Parliament no matter how much she tweeks it. The DUP won’t support her when it becomes clear that the backstop stays and no Tory wants a liability like May to lead them into the next General Election.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    rkrkrk said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The thing that might save Mrs May is the prospect of Boris, Gove, or an ERGer succeeding her.

    A commitment from Boris not to run might work... except the MPs who don't trust him, don't trust him.
    A commitment given now to leave in April "once I have delivered Brexit" might be enough too. Still means her authority is shot though.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,251
    HYUFD said:

    Anna Soubry backs May while attacking Owen Patterson and the ERG


    https://mobile.twitter.com/Anna_Soubry/status/1072754552225583104

    ERG are in the process of losing brexit. If they succeed tonight and an ERG member takes over upto 20 conservative mps will resign the whip
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141
    Credit where it's due, the speed they're getting through this is impressive now it's actually going.

    These guys are already at "bargaining":
    https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1072770302541746176
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    No seal on the lectern
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anna Soubry backs May while attacking Owen Patterson and the ERG


    https://mobile.twitter.com/Anna_Soubry/status/1072754552225583104

    ERG are in the process of losing brexit. If they succeed tonight and an ERG member takes over upto 20 conservative mps will resign the whip
    Absolutely they will...and then the ERG lose any chance of Brexit at all, they'll swing with a people vote movement for sure.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    edited December 2018
    AmpfieldAndy said:

    May will win but hopefully the numbers against her will be large enough to persuade her to step down. Her deal is a failure and won’t get through Parliament no matter how much she tweets it. The DUP won’t support her when that becomes clear and no Tory wants a liability like May to lead them into the next General Election.

    "no Tory wants a liability like May to lead them into the next General Election" negates your earlier assertion that she will win. We could shortly have an election.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,251
    AmpfieldAndy said:

    May will win tonight but hopefully the numbers voting against her will be large enough to persuade her to step down. Her deal is a failure and won’t get through Parliament no matter how much she tweeks it. The DUP won’t support her when it becomes clear that the backstop stays and no Tory wants a liability like May to lead them into the next General Election.

    If that was true they would not have launched this today. It is madness as should she win she has 12 more months. I do not want that
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,226
    MarqueeMark said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    May will win but hopefully the numbers against her will be large enough to persuade her to step down. Her deal is a failure and won’t get through Parliament no matter how much she tweets it. The DUP won’t support her when that becomes clear and no Tory wants a liability like May to lead them into the next General Election.

    "no Tory wants a liability like May to lead them into the next General Election" negates your earlier assertion that she will win. We could shortly have an election.
    Unless the Tories are facing another 1997, in which case Mrs May might be the ideal person to take the blame.
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Two thoughts:

    1. The Tory leadership voting system is so much more sensible than Labour's, ensuring as it does that the party membership is only presented with a choice between the two candidates most acceptable to the parliamentary party

    2. While she clearly in not a quitter, one must think that Mrs May would be relieved to lose this vote.
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    mr-claypolemr-claypole Posts: 217
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The thing that might save Mrs May is the prospect of Boris, Gove, or an ERGer succeeding her.

    Does she want to survive? Everyone keeps saying that she's safe for a year if she wins the vote, but does she want that? It would almost become he duty to stay for at least a year.
    A fortnight ago I spoke to someone who worked for Theresa May and they said she wouldn’t be want to be responsible for a No Deal Brexit that sees a meds shortage.

    She doesn’t want that on her conscience.

    As a diabetic she knows how important this is.

    In the event of a meds shortage Leavers won’t be safe, the UK won’t be pleasant.

    Those gallows on display on Sunday may end up being used by those impacted by a meds shortage or their family.
    If she was really brave she could go out and say that. What does she have to lose
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anna Soubry backs May while attacking Owen Patterson and the ERG


    https://mobile.twitter.com/Anna_Soubry/status/1072754552225583104

    ERG are in the process of losing brexit. If they succeed tonight and an ERG member takes over upto 20 conservative mps will resign the whip
    The ERG won't win the leadership, they don't have enough votes to get anyone through to the final two.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    IanB2 said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    May will win but hopefully the numbers against her will be large enough to persuade her to step down. Her deal is a failure and won’t get through Parliament no matter how much she tweets it. The DUP won’t support her when that becomes clear and no Tory wants a liability like May to lead them into the next General Election.

    "no Tory wants a liability like May to lead them into the next General Election" negates your earlier assertion that she will win. We could shortly have an election.
    Unless the Tories are facing another 1997, in which case Mrs May might be the ideal person to take the blame.
    No, we need every vote and seat to stop Corbyn, or Corbyn with a majority....
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Scott_P said:

    No seal on the lectern

    It is a party matter, not a government announcement, even if she were to announce her resignation.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,645
    dr_spyn said:

    https://twitter.com/AmberRuddHR/status/1072763625771884544

    @ampfieldAndy Tweets from which ambitious malcontents would you be looking for signs of 'loyalty'? Hammond must still be walking the dogs.

    Im reminded of comments from mps during the referendum that Cameron would not need to step down. They could say it because they knew he would so could presented loyal. Cabinet members who might want to appeal to some loyalists, waverers or reluctant opponents of may might claim support as they know she'll lose anyway, if that makes sense. The assassins of the 48 even if successful might not get a chance but someone who as loyal but will now do as the party says?
    edmundintokyo said:

    numbertwelve said:

    It is starting to feel like we are walking into managed no deal or second referendum by necessity. The problem with the latter is that any leadership contender who suggests another vote will probably not get on the ballot. Or will lose the membership.

    Suspect the new leader would go to Brussels to ask for a renegotiation, they will tell them where to go and then it really is the end of the line.

    This is the problem, isn't it? They'll feel obliged to preemptively disavow all possible routes out of the treacle.

    The only person who can bring it off is a really shameless, audacious liar who can stand there telling the Tory members he won't give an inch then cheerfully lead his MPs through the lobby to vote for TMay's deal.

    ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

    So Boris Johnson basically.
    You presumably jest...But I believe William theorized something like that a year ago.
    Casino_Royale said:

    Jonathan said:

    After 13 years of Labour, people were prepared to experiment with the Tory party again. The Lib Dem’s kept them sensible for 5 years, but now after just 3 years of governing alone we remember why they were rejected utterly in 1997. They have brought the nation to the brink and can only argue amongst themselves.

    You’re not the Labour Party press officer, or spin officer.

    Give it a rest.
    Looked sound to me. The Tories are not capable of governing right now.

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    AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    MarqueeMark said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    May will win but hopefully the numbers against her will be large enough to persuade her to step down. Her deal is a failure and won’t get through Parliament no matter how much she tweets it. The DUP won’t support her when that becomes clear and no Tory wants a liability like May to lead them into the next General Election.

    "no Tory wants a liability like May to lead them into the next General Election" negates your earlier assertion that she will win. We could shortly have an election.
    Not at all. May will win because there are more remainers in the Tory Party than Leavers. No one, Remainers or Leavers wants May to lead them in the next general election. Those who support her tonight will still want her gone after she has delivered Remain or an ultra soft Brexit.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    IanB2 said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    May will win but hopefully the numbers against her will be large enough to persuade her to step down. Her deal is a failure and won’t get through Parliament no matter how much she tweets it. The DUP won’t support her when that becomes clear and no Tory wants a liability like May to lead them into the next General Election.

    "no Tory wants a liability like May to lead them into the next General Election" negates your earlier assertion that she will win. We could shortly have an election.
    Unless the Tories are facing another 1997, in which case Mrs May might be the ideal person to take the blame.
    While Corbyn is there the chances of a 1997 style wipeout is minimal. Even against the worst Tory campaign in living memory we managed to get more votes and seats.
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    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,802
    tlg86 said:

    No government crest on the plinth yet.

    Oh no, not this again!
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,914
    Yep ...
    https://twitter.com/annaturley/status/1072763252638171137?s=21
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,226
    MTimT said:

    Two thoughts:

    1. The Tory leadership voting system is so much more sensible than Labour's, ensuring as it does that the party membership is only presented with a choice between the two candidates most acceptable to the parliamentary party

    2. While she clearly in not a quitter, one must think that Mrs May would be relieved to lose this vote.

    It'll only be truly tested when the members choose the MPs' second choice, and that person has to carry that baggage around with them.
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    tottenhamWCtottenhamWC Posts: 352
    MaxPB said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anna Soubry backs May while attacking Owen Patterson and the ERG


    https://mobile.twitter.com/Anna_Soubry/status/1072754552225583104

    ERG are in the process of losing brexit. If they succeed tonight and an ERG member takes over upto 20 conservative mps will resign the whip
    The ERG won't win the leadership, they don't have enough votes to get anyone through to the final two.
    From an incredibly good source - Javid is a no dealer as well. No outcomes here are good.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Everyone with hopes of being the unity candidate is going to profess their support for the Prime Minister. That doesn't mean she's got it.

    Look out for politicians with dental appointments today.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    Pro_Rata said:

    tlg86 said:

    No government crest on the plinth yet.

    Oh no, not this again!
    To be fair, I think it's to be expected. I think it means she's going to fight on rather than signal her intention to resign as PM.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,907
    MTimT said:

    Two thoughts:

    1. The Tory leadership voting system is so much more sensible than Labour's, ensuring as it does that the party membership is only presented with a choice between the two candidates most acceptable to the parliamentary party

    2. While she clearly in not a quitter, one must think that Mrs May would be relieved to lose this vote.

    Hmm... Arguably the disparity between membership and leader is a big part of the problem the Tories currently have?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    IanB2 said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    May will win but hopefully the numbers against her will be large enough to persuade her to step down. Her deal is a failure and won’t get through Parliament no matter how much she tweets it. The DUP won’t support her when that becomes clear and no Tory wants a liability like May to lead them into the next General Election.

    "no Tory wants a liability like May to lead them into the next General Election" negates your earlier assertion that she will win. We could shortly have an election.
    Unless the Tories are facing another 1997, in which case Mrs May might be the ideal person to take the blame.
    Except they are tied with Labour now, get rid of her and No Deal chaos and a defeat looks more likely
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    Scott_P said:

    No seal on the lectern

    https://twitter.com/richardf/status/1063118450028146693
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,251
    Pro_Rata said:

    tlg86 said:

    No government crest on the plinth yet.

    Oh no, not this again!
    It is a party matter
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,645
    edited December 2018
    rkrkrk said:

    She's going to win the vote of no confidence isn't she?
    I guess she might resign anyway if it's close.

    I hope not. I hope she makes damn clear that anyone who doesn't back her all the way should vote against, not assume if it is close she will step down, as she has no intention of doing so. Of course we know what her word is worth.
    MarqueeMark said:

    Remember - they are voting to give her an immoveable 12 months.

    12 more months of this. With an election fronted by her? In a secret ballot?

    Indeed. Avoiding a GE should be easy but is harder than it looks, especially if somehow a deal passes. Cabinet members cannot be relied on to back her. Loyalists like bigG reluctantly see she has to go surely many mps do too.

    We've been told the chief whip was trying to canvass support in cabinet - I think she quits as they equivocate. Not all will be public in support.
    AlastairMeeks said:

    With the benefit of hindsight she would have done better to press on with the meaningful vote. She gained no time and lost reputation by pulling it.

    That didn't require hindsight. It was one of the more baffling things she has done, trying to avoid humiliation...by being humiliated. She lost much dignity in that moment and undermined much of the respect she had still earned.


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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    SouthamObserver said:

    Yep ...
    https://twitter.com/annaturley/status/1072763252638171137?s=21

    Who knew? What a complete shower.
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    Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    Beverley_C said:

    tlg86 said:

    She's dodged one vote this week; I think she'll dodge this one and resign.

    If she wins by one vote, she will stay as Leader until they pry her fingers from the leavers of power. She does not seem to take hints...
    Well the malcontents just have to support Corbyn in a VoNC and she'll be gone by Friday.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    tottenhamWC said:

    MaxPB said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anna Soubry backs May while attacking Owen Patterson and the ERG


    https://mobile.twitter.com/Anna_Soubry/status/1072754552225583104

    ERG are in the process of losing brexit. If they succeed tonight and an ERG member takes over upto 20 conservative mps will resign the whip
    The ERG won't win the leadership, they don't have enough votes to get anyone through to the final two.
    From an incredibly good source - Javid is a no dealer as well. No outcomes here are good.
    Well, if the options are No-deal, May's Deal, or Referendum, then if May's deal dies with her.

    Problem is no tory could offer a referendum and hope to win the MPs/Membership. That would be poison.

    So, risks a fundamental split of the party.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,581
    So Brady informed May last night - shortly followed by Peston informing the nation that the 48 had not been reached!
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    EICIPMEICIPM Posts: 55
    tlg86 said:

    No government crest on the plinth yet.

    Hilarious if she said she was calling a general election
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Everyone with hopes of being the unity candidate is going to profess their support for the Prime Minister. That doesn't mean she's got it.

    Look out for politicians with dental appointments today.

    It's a secret ballot, they can keep their teeth
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    AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    May will win tonight but hopefully the numbers voting against her will be large enough to persuade her to step down. Her deal is a failure and won’t get through Parliament no matter how much she tweeks it. The DUP won’t support her when it becomes clear that the backstop stays and no Tory wants a liability like May to lead them into the next General Election.

    If that was true they would not have launched this today. It is madness as should she win she has 12 more months. I do not want that
    It makes total sense to launch it today. She can’t get her deal through Parliamment so it’s important a Brexiteer is now in charge. What th more Remainers than Leavers, May will win but enough May vote against her to encourage her to step down. Defeating Labour needs a new leader and that can’t cime soon enough.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Boris wins leadership
    Loses VONC in commons
    General Election Boris vs. Corbyn

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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,251
    Chris_A said:

    Beverley_C said:

    tlg86 said:

    She's dodged one vote this week; I think she'll dodge this one and resign.

    If she wins by one vote, she will stay as Leader until they pry her fingers from the leavers of power. She does not seem to take hints...
    Well the malcontents just have to support Corbyn in a VoNC and she'll be gone by Friday.
    Any conservative mp doing that will be instantly deselected
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    kle4 said:



    AlastairMeeks said:

    With the benefit of hindsight she would have done better to press on with the meaningful vote. She gained no time and lost reputation by pulling it.

    That didn't require hindsight. It was one of the more baffling things she has done, trying to avoid humiliation...by being humiliated. She lost much dignity in that moment and undermined much of the respect she had still earned.


    I was being kind. That has been as corrosive to her authority as anything else she has done.

    I am expecting her to lose tonight. A French egg is a French egg.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,645
    Cicero said:

    Idling wondering how the Conservatives can survive... The mutual loathing and bitterness, which they have for each other and which they have inflicted on the country, now seems to have reached escape velocity.

    Perhaps they'll surprise us, but how? The only likely deal is one a hard core will never support, and another smaller chunk wont support no deal, and they hold each other in contempt. And we're supposed to be worried about Corbyn? I don't like the man but we need more than fear of him.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Not much chance of a coronation taking place before Christmas with about 15 candidates likely to be in the running.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    SandyRentool said:

    So Brady informed May last night - shortly followed by Peston informing the nation that the 48 had not been reached!

    To be fair, the last thing I saw before bed last night was Tom Newton Dunn insisting that the 48 weren't in.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    EICIPM said:

    tlg86 said:

    No government crest on the plinth yet.

    Hilarious if she said she was calling a general election
    She wouldn't have the power under the FTPA
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    Being consistently late is the height of rudeness.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,692
    Is there a difference between ministers "backing" May ...

    https://twitter.com/michaelgove/status/1072767423697309696

    ... and voting for her ...

    https://twitter.com/MattHancock/status/1072766026536882176
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,969
    Mr. Rentool, Peston, wrong? Are you sure?
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,287
    https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1072773287787327488 just up
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,645
    SouthamObserver said:

    Yep ...
    https://twitter.com/annaturley/status/1072763252638171137?s=21

    I didn't know the Tory hard right included 17 million people. They are more influential than i thought.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Chris_A said:

    Beverley_C said:

    tlg86 said:

    She's dodged one vote this week; I think she'll dodge this one and resign.

    If she wins by one vote, she will stay as Leader until they pry her fingers from the leavers of power. She does not seem to take hints...
    Well the malcontents just have to support Corbyn in a VoNC and she'll be gone by Friday.
    Any conservative mp doing that will be instantly deselected
    If Boris was your leader and you were an MP would you vote for him in a VONC?
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,251
    AmpfieldAndy said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    May will win tonight but hopefully the numbers voting against her will be large enough to persuade her to step down. Her deal is a failure and won’t get through Parliament no matter how much she tweeks it. The DUP won’t support her when it becomes clear that the backstop stays and no Tory wants a liability like May to lead them into the next General Election.

    If that was true they would not have launched this today. It is madness as should she win she has 12 more months. I do not want that
    It makes total sense to launch it today. She can’t get her deal through Parliamment so it’s important a Brexiteer is now in charge. What th more Remainers than Leavers, May will win but enough May vote against her to encourage her to step down. Defeating Labour needs a new leader and that can’t cime soon enough.
    The minute a brexiteer takes charge upto 20 conservatives will resign the whip and a GE becomes almost certain
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    JohnWheatleyJohnWheatley Posts: 140
    Is there a conflict between two well established memes - that she is increasingly admired for her fortitude (and so more electable?) and that she is electoral disaster. We will probably never know.
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    rkrkrk said:

    MTimT said:

    Two thoughts:

    1. The Tory leadership voting system is so much more sensible than Labour's, ensuring as it does that the party membership is only presented with a choice between the two candidates most acceptable to the parliamentary party

    2. While she clearly in not a quitter, one must think that Mrs May would be relieved to lose this vote.

    Hmm... Arguably the disparity between membership and leader is a big part of the problem the Tories currently have?
    Would that matter had she kept the Parliamentary Party with her? Leadership need only face the public at election time or in times of national crisis; it has to work with the PP every day in government.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141
    edited December 2018
    MTimT said:

    Two thoughts:

    1. The Tory leadership voting system is so much more sensible than Labour's, ensuring as it does that the party membership is only presented with a choice between the two candidates most acceptable to the parliamentary party

    2. While she clearly in not a quitter, one must think that Mrs May would be relieved to lose this vote.

    The Labour process would have worked OK if MPs hadn't nominated someone they thought was terrible to give the voters a choice, thinking they'd be too sensible to take it. I know that sounds insane now, but they were innocent times.
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