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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So TMay wins 200 to 117 – but is the margin enough?

SystemSystem Posts: 11,007
edited December 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So TMay wins 200 to 117 – but is the margin enough?

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  • Options
    NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    scraped home first?
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    That was my first! :angry:

    QTWTAIN.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Not enough to pass the deal, so she has a few weeks.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625
    edited December 2018
    No it is not enough. Hard to say what would be, the numbers of a deal are still the same, but symbolically over a third against feels unsustainable, and they are not going "Oh well, good fight lads what ho, time to be good soldiers now".

    It buys her Christmas. I suggest she send a pleading card to Corbyn asking his price.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,561
    Yes
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793
    edited December 2018
    In normal circumstances it wouldn't be enough... But this is Theresa May we're talking about so she'll brazen it out for sure.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,289
    I fear not.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,109
    Yes, but only until the summer. June retirement would be my guess.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,845
    edited December 2018
    Betting post.

    Corbyn still 6.6 on Betfair for next PM.

    Barely moved when the result was announced. Market sure as hell doesn’t think she’s safe for the next 12 months, no matter what Sir Graham said tonight.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/hopisen/status/1072963959895064588
  • Options
    FangsyFangsy Posts: 28
    She could be gone as early as next week if her withdrawal agreement goes before the House and is beaten
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/juliahobsbawm/status/1072964033089859584
  • Options
    PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    Tactically it makes no sense for Labour to table a vote of no confidence, but you can’t help feeling they’d enjoy making the 117 walk through the no lobby tomorrow.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,222
    Do I get a prize for estimating 200 in favour? ;)
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    The next cabinet meeting could be interesting. Will she look upon some of them with suspicion?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625
    Cyclefree said:

    AndyJS said:

    Mogg: "Under constitutional norms she ought to go and see the Queen and resign’

    Is that some constitutional norm he just invented?
    It seems so. Unless he can back that up it looks like he is saying 'People I don't like should resign, and I'll say constitutional to make it seem more significant'
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,580
    Is May calling in the Cabinet one by one?

    Either she goes or half of the cabinet goes?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    https://twitter.com/SophyRidgeSky/status/1072964129906941952?s=20

    As this tweet says a win of 1 would be enough as she could not be challenged for a year, winning 2/3 of MPs at least ensures she will complete the Brexit process as Tory leader and PM
  • Options
    NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    Something will probably give eventually so deal goes through with minor tweaks. Fallback is extend A50 and remain vs. deal referendum?
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    There's something in this result for everyone.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,109
    Fangsy said:

    She could be gone as early as next week if her withdrawal agreement goes before the House and is beaten

    How?

    The only mechanism I can think of is if she is voted out by the Commons or if she has nobody who is willing to serve in Cabinet, both of which look unlikely.

    Nice to hear a ScotNat refer to the United Kingdom as one country as the UK.

    I would say he's quite scathing about Corbyn and Labour, but actually I think he's being generous.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    edited December 2018
    Fangsy said:

    She could be gone as early as next week if her withdrawal agreement goes before the House and is beaten

    No, she now is unchallengeable and thus will just resubmit it to Parliament every week until Brexit day
  • Options
    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,214
    Yes.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,289
    IanB2 said:

    Do I get a prize for estimating 200 in favour? ;)

    Yes you get to choose what Sunday morning's thread is about, your choice is from one of the following

    1) AV and why it is the greatest voting system in the world

    2) Why pineapple pizza is the greatest evil in the universe

    3) Why Die Hard isn't a Christmas movie
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/hopisen/status/1072963959895064588

    Great tweet.
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/juliahobsbawm/status/1072964033089859584

    I don't quite see the obvious reason, perhaps I am being slow? The public hate the deal and will go back to wanting May gone soon enough.
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    AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    edited December 2018
    She’s gone. Not today or tomorrow but very soon. She can’t get her deal through Parliament; she has no domestic policies to rally her party, her allies in the DUP won’t support her in a confidence vote unless she ditches the backstop which her masters in the EU won’t let her do - she’s finished.

    Probably too late to stop Corbyn winning the next election sadly. That’s May’s legacy - failing in Brexit and handing Gov over to hard left extremists.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,289
    JohnO said:

    Yes.

    I hope you're right.
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,045
    I fight on. I fight to win.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,561
    Expect a deal with Labour to be cut over Christmas such that they abstain in the MV vote in January 'in the greater national interest'... with, coincidentally, a GE offered for after Brexit day and May to step down having completed her mission.

    The Cons will think they have a good chance in a Spring GE with Brexit (ok BINO) delivered and a new leader.

    Labour (leadership) have convinced themselves they can't possibly lose a GE.

    So everyone will support it.

  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,109
    You know the country is in epic shit when Nigel Dodds comes across as the voice of reason and calm.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,206
    FrankBooth said:

    I fight on. I fight to win.

    "Maggie T ain't got shit on me!" :)
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1072964941064405008
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,214
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    JohnO said:

    Yes.

    I hope you're right.
    I am as regards the leadership.

    The underlying imbroglio persists.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    If the 117 and the 10 DUP vote against that still gives an approximately 250 majority against the deal as it is.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,289
    Peter Bone is another [moderated] who needs to understand democracy.

    https://twitter.com/KateProctorES/status/1072965017807585283
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,576
    https://twitter.com/proftomkins/status/1072961581728890881?s=21
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625
    While I am one to agree her position is not as secure as the fact of the vote implies because it indicates she will not be able to, well, do anything, it is remarkably, pathetically brazen to insist the winner must resign. If 50% +1 was not meant to be enough to win, perhaps they can amend the rules so next time a leader must win more than that.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,109
    Benpointer said:

    Expect a deal with Labour to be cut over Christmas such that they abstain in the MV vote in January 'in the greater national interest'... with, coincidentally, a GE offered for after Brexit day and May to step down having completed her mission.

    The Cons will think they have a good chance in a Spring GE with Brexit (ok BINO) delivered and a new leader.

    Labour (leadership) have convinced themselves they can't possibly lose a GE.

    So everyone will support it.

    That would be a brilliant outcome, especially as Labour would likely lose the ensuing election.

    Even if it did cost me ten quid.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,222
    Philip_Thompson said:

    If the 117 and the 10 DUP vote against that still gives an approximately 250 majority against the deal as it is.

    May winning may change the dynamics, and the polling.
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    partypoliticalorphanpartypoliticalorphan Posts: 308
    Marginally better for May but the fact she had to promise not to stand in a 2022 GE shows the precariousness of her position.

    When the backstop remains, Labour move a vote of No confidence which the DUP support and she is gone. Conservatives need to find a successor they can get behind.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,932
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/hopisen/status/1072963959895064588

    Great tweet.
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/juliahobsbawm/status/1072964033089859584

    I don't quite see the obvious reason, perhaps I am being slow? The public hate the deal and will go back to wanting May gone soon enough.
    The public like the deal when put against the other options. It seems to be something like

    33% no deal
    35% revoke
    32% May's Deal

    with most people compromising on May's Deal when given a choice between the extreme and the compromise...

    That's not to say it's liked but most people seem to think its the best we are going to get..
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1072965484444819456
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,561
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/hopisen/status/1072963959895064588

    Great tweet.
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/juliahobsbawm/status/1072964033089859584

    I don't quite see the obvious reason, perhaps I am being slow? The public hate the deal and will go back to wanting May gone soon enough.
    The public want Brexit done. Most frankly don't give a shit what it looks like so long as its effects don't impinge on their daily lives too much (which incidentally rules out No Deal).
  • Options
    Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    A couple of potentially significant comments:

    https://twitter.com/Mike_Fabricant/status/1072965107519508485
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    kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/hopisen/status/1072963959895064588

    17.4 million voting in a once in a generation referendum is not the same as an internal party vote of no confidence about their party leader.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Peter Bone is another [moderated] who needs to understand democracy.

    https://twitter.com/KateProctorES/status/1072965017807585283

    Wait, what? She won.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,289
    JohnO said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    JohnO said:

    Yes.

    I hope you're right.
    I am as regards the leadership.

    The underlying imbroglio persists.
    Indeed.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625
    Benpointer said:

    Expect a deal with Labour to be cut over Christmas such that they abstain in the MV vote in January 'in the greater national interest'... with, coincidentally, a GE offered for after Brexit day and May to step down having completed her mission.

    The Cons will think they have a good chance in a Spring GE with Brexit (ok BINO) delivered and a new leader.

    Labour (leadership) have convinced themselves they can't possibly lose a GE.

    So everyone will support it.

    Pretty shamelessly cynical of Labour to claim they want a GE to renegotiate Brexit, and then allow Brexit to happen in exchange for a GE, but I imagine they would get over the shock of the position switch.
  • Options
    OortOort Posts: 96
    JRM says he accepts the confidence vote result but Theresa May should still meet the queen and resign. That's not inconsistent, given that Tory leader and PM are different offices.

    So will he vote against the government in a VONC in the Commons?
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    So as the price for an 83 majority, she has turned herself into a lame duck. And given legitimacy for the various campaigns to replace her to get up and running.

    "So when are you leaving, Prime Minister?" That will haunt her every interview from now on.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,109
    Some protestor now annoying this BBC bloke.
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    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,503
    ydoethur said:

    Benpointer said:

    Expect a deal with Labour to be cut over Christmas such that they abstain in the MV vote in January 'in the greater national interest'... with, coincidentally, a GE offered for after Brexit day and May to step down having completed her mission.

    The Cons will think they have a good chance in a Spring GE with Brexit (ok BINO) delivered and a new leader.

    Labour (leadership) have convinced themselves they can't possibly lose a GE.

    So everyone will support it.

    That would be a brilliant outcome, especially as Labour would likely lose the ensuing election.

    Even if it did cost me ten quid.
    However, many Labour MPs wouldn't wear such a deal. Labour remainers are much more committed than Tory ones.
  • Options
    FangsyFangsy Posts: 28
    ydoethur said:

    Benpointer said:

    Expect a deal with Labour to be cut over Christmas such that they abstain in the MV vote in January 'in the greater national interest'... with, coincidentally, a GE offered for after Brexit day and May to step down having completed her mission.

    The Cons will think they have a good chance in a Spring GE with Brexit (ok BINO) delivered and a new leader.

    Labour (leadership) have convinced themselves they can't possibly lose a GE.

    So everyone will support it.

    That would be a brilliant outcome, especially as Labour would likely lose the ensuing election.

    Even if it did cost me ten quid.
    Lots of Tories would have to vote for a GE to make that deal run. Why would they do that?
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    How many Tory MPs on the government payroll? If we assume they all voted for May (I know, I know), what was the split for the rest of the MPs?
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    IanB2 said:

    Do I get a prize for estimating 200 in favour? ;)

    Yes you get to choose what Sunday morning's thread is about, your choice is from one of the following

    1) AV and why it is the greatest voting system in the world

    2) Why pineapple pizza is the greatest evil in the universe

    3) Why Die Hard isn't a Christmas movie
    4) Why it's time for another Scottish peer as Prime Minister.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Peter Bone is another [moderated] who needs to understand democracy.

    https://twitter.com/KateProctorES/status/1072965017807585283

    What a cretin. I know what he presumably really means, that she doesn't have 'enough' support, but for gods sake did he not even hear the outcome of the vote?
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    OortOort Posts: 96
    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/hopisen/status/1072963959895064588

    Great tweet.
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/juliahobsbawm/status/1072964033089859584

    I don't quite see the obvious reason, perhaps I am being slow? The public hate the deal and will go back to wanting May gone soon enough.
    The public like the deal when put against the other options. It seems to be something like

    33% no deal
    35% revoke
    32% May's Deal

    with most people compromising on May's Deal when given a choice between the extreme and the compromise...

    That's not to say it's liked but most people seem to think its the best we are going to get..
    Who says Paul Weller wasn't wrong when he sang that the public gets what the public wants?
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,561
    edited December 2018
    ydoethur said:

    Benpointer said:

    Expect a deal with Labour to be cut over Christmas such that they abstain in the MV vote in January 'in the greater national interest'... with, coincidentally, a GE offered for after Brexit day and May to step down having completed her mission.

    The Cons will think they have a good chance in a Spring GE with Brexit (ok BINO) delivered and a new leader.

    Labour (leadership) have convinced themselves they can't possibly lose a GE.

    So everyone will support it.

    That would be a brilliant outcome, especially as Labour would likely lose the ensuing election.

    Even if it did cost me ten quid.
    I agree tbh - I think Labour would lose (subject to the May replacement not being BoJo). But the point is they don't believe it themselves and so would jump at the chance of a GE.

    2019 must be nailed on for the next GE.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,130
    To quote Mrs May nothing has changed. Her deal remains deader than a dodo that's been eaten by a hungry sailor, she remains resistant to remain or a second referendum so there is unlikely to be any legislation to facilitate them and the clock is ticking. How this ends is still a mystery. The nice version is that she unexpectedly comes back from Europe with something about the backstop (maybe a 2 year notice period, that always works well) and the House passes her deal with a sigh of relief. The not so nice versions are probably not suitable for a family website.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,845
    Donny43 said:

    A couple of potentially significant comments:

    https://twitter.com/Mike_Fabricant/status/1072965107519508485

    They’ll still both vote against the deal though.
  • Options
    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    On with the job!
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,222
    MarqueeMark said:

    So as the price for an 83 majority, she has turned herself into a lame duck. And given legitimacy for the various campaigns to replace her to get up and running.

    "So when are you leaving, Prime Minister?" That will haunt her every interview from now on.

    Four years is a long time in politics
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    kle4 said:

    Benpointer said:

    Expect a deal with Labour to be cut over Christmas such that they abstain in the MV vote in January 'in the greater national interest'... with, coincidentally, a GE offered for after Brexit day and May to step down having completed her mission.

    The Cons will think they have a good chance in a Spring GE with Brexit (ok BINO) delivered and a new leader.

    Labour (leadership) have convinced themselves they can't possibly lose a GE.

    So everyone will support it.

    Pretty shamelessly cynical of Labour to claim they want a GE to renegotiate Brexit, and then allow Brexit to happen in exchange for a GE, but I imagine they would get over the shock of the position switch.
    May will have to step down before that early election.....
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,576
    partypoliticalorphan said:

    Marginally better for May but the fact she had to promise not to stand in a 2022 GE shows the precariousness of her position.

    When the backstop remains, Labour move a vote of No confidence which the DUP support and she is gone. Conservatives need to find a successor they can get behind.

    No successor is going to get the EU to change the backstop. If that’s what is really dividing them (and not just good old fashioned mysoginy) they’re fecked who ever is PM.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    May now giving her victory speech outside No 10 and also says she has listened to those who have voted against her and will continue to deliver Brexit
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,109
    Theresa May's constituency chairman rubbing Corbyn's face in the figures.

    Labour, Labour, Labour, what were you thinking?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625
    ydoethur said:

    You know the country is in epic shit when Nigel Dodds comes across as the voice of reason and calm.

    Impossible. What has he said?
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,176
    Philip_Thompson said:

    If the 117 and the 10 DUP vote against that still gives an approximately 250 majority against the deal as it is.

    And herein lies her "victory". Retains the leadership of 2/3rds of the party, with further numbers of her "supporters" already declared as voting against her deal.

    She'll be dragged kicking and screaming to the Commons, forced to hold the vote knowing she will be utterly demolished. At which point what power does she have? What authority does she have?
  • Options
    Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    Benpointer said:

    Expect a deal with Labour to be cut over Christmas such that they abstain in the MV vote in January 'in the greater national interest'... with, coincidentally, a GE offered for after Brexit day and May to step down having completed her mission.

    The Cons will think they have a good chance in a Spring GE with Brexit (ok BINO) delivered and a new leader.

    Labour (leadership) have convinced themselves they can't possibly lose a GE.

    So everyone will support it.

    That is probably the elegant way out. Then we just have to hope that the people who are telling us that the EU doesn't want the backstop to come into force are correct.
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,176
    That May statement - "Nothing Has Changed"
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,899
    It's enough for her, for the moment, and what's more, it makes the ERGers seem like a bunch of incompetent clowns.

    But the bigger issues remain (and remain is one of those issues). She's no nearer sorting out any of those issues - and they're far more important for the country than who leads the Conservative party.

    But sadly, no-one else seems to be able to sort out those issues - or even know how to. Not just amongst the Conservatives, but the other parties as well. Only the deluded think there are any good solutions.

    We may need the least-worst solution, and that might be Mays deal.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,289
    The ERG are about to make Corbyn PM.

    https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1072965281264402444
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,109
    JackW said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    IanB2 said:

    Do I get a prize for estimating 200 in favour? ;)

    Yes you get to choose what Sunday morning's thread is about, your choice is from one of the following

    1) AV and why it is the greatest voting system in the world

    2) Why pineapple pizza is the greatest evil in the universe

    3) Why Die Hard isn't a Christmas movie
    4) Why it's time for another Scottish peer as Prime Minister.
    Your Grace, how could you doubt we would all vote for you?

    I trust you are keeping well, by the way? We miss you.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1072960167619297281
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,940
    AmpfieldAndy said:

    She’s gone. Not today or tomorrow but very soon. She can’t get her deal through Parliament; she has no domestic policies to rally her party, her allies in the DUP won’t support her in a confidence vote unless she ditches the backstop which her masters in the EU won’t let her do - she’s finished.

    Probably too late to stop Corbyn winning the next election sadly. That’s May’s legacy - failing in Brexit and handing Gov over to hard left extremists.

    The no other domestic policies is key there. Nothing to unite the party around. Nothing to unite about but dread of Corbyn. Nothing to distract from the unpassable deal.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793
    AmpfieldAndy said:

    She’s gone. Not today or tomorrow but very soon.

    No she's not.

    She's safe for a year and will then try to brazen it out to the next election (her commitment not to fight another election is literally worthless) The only way we're getting rid her now is for the electorate to take matters into their own hands and vote her out (and even then she'll almost certainly try to squat in Downing St for days like Brown did)
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,619
    Donny43 said:

    A couple of potentially significant comments:

    https://twitter.com/Mike_Fabricant/status/1072965107519508485

    He missed a stunning opportunity to say "Go, Nads".

    Pause.

    I am an adult, really... :)

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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625
    Benpointer said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/hopisen/status/1072963959895064588

    Great tweet.
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/juliahobsbawm/status/1072964033089859584

    I don't quite see the obvious reason, perhaps I am being slow? The public hate the deal and will go back to wanting May gone soon enough.
    The public want Brexit done. Most frankly don't give a shit what it looks like so long as its effects don't impinge on their daily lives too much (which incidentally rules out No Deal).
    A large part don't want Brexit done, they want it reversed. Others might say they want it done but react negatively to any attempt to get it done, like MPs have. So I don't quite buy it.
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    PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    It would have been nice if she’d written a new speech for her victory celebrations.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Donny43 said:

    A couple of potentially significant comments:

    https://twitter.com/Mike_Fabricant/status/1072965107519508485

    Still not sure how Mick voted.
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    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,503
    Labour's membership, which represents the origin of the current leadership, is 85% for Remain. Labour MP's are vastly more tilted to remain than Tories. I can't see that happening.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    JRM banging on about the "payroll vote" - he doesn't know how they voted.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,109
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    You know the country is in epic shit when Nigel Dodds comes across as the voice of reason and calm.

    Impossible. What has he said?
    He said the leadership of the Tories was a matter for them, that the DUP would honour C and S, and that the key was that this actually did resolve the major problem of political deadlock.

    He was the only one talking vague sense.

    Mind you the competition was Long Bailey, Rees-Mogg and Grayling.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    Anna Soubry insisting she won't vote for the deal.
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    Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    Fangsy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Benpointer said:

    Expect a deal with Labour to be cut over Christmas such that they abstain in the MV vote in January 'in the greater national interest'... with, coincidentally, a GE offered for after Brexit day and May to step down having completed her mission.

    The Cons will think they have a good chance in a Spring GE with Brexit (ok BINO) delivered and a new leader.

    Labour (leadership) have convinced themselves they can't possibly lose a GE.

    So everyone will support it.

    That would be a brilliant outcome, especially as Labour would likely lose the ensuing election.

    Even if it did cost me ten quid.
    Lots of Tories would have to vote for a GE to make that deal run. Why would they do that?
    Nope, since the DUP have said they will vote for a FTPA-VONC if the deal passes.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,206
    RochdalePioneers said:

    That May statement - "Nothing Has Changed"

    May still PM
    Jacob Rees-Mogg still a tw@
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I wonder how many votes she won by saying she'd stand down with 12 months?
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    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    LOL anna soubry

    Nick back soon :lol:
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,289
    viewcode said:

    Donny43 said:

    A couple of potentially significant comments:

    https://twitter.com/Mike_Fabricant/status/1072965107519508485

    He missed a stunning opportunity to say "Go, Nads".

    Pause.

    I am an adult, really... :)

    You're on a website that ran a thread headlined 'Balls deep in trouble' when rumours were flying that Ed Balls was on the verge of losing Morley and Outwood.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,625
    MarqueeMark said:

    kle4 said:

    Benpointer said:

    Expect a deal with Labour to be cut over Christmas such that they abstain in the MV vote in January 'in the greater national interest'... with, coincidentally, a GE offered for after Brexit day and May to step down having completed her mission.

    The Cons will think they have a good chance in a Spring GE with Brexit (ok BINO) delivered and a new leader.

    Labour (leadership) have convinced themselves they can't possibly lose a GE.

    So everyone will support it.

    Pretty shamelessly cynical of Labour to claim they want a GE to renegotiate Brexit, and then allow Brexit to happen in exchange for a GE, but I imagine they would get over the shock of the position switch.
    May will have to step down before that early election.....
    If Brexit is passed there would be time for that, and a successor to be chosen - I don't think Labour will go for it, they don't want to touch anything Brexit related, but if the prize was a GE presumably the date would be set for May or June or something, so May could resign as leader sometime after a vote in the new year, and as PM in March.
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    AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    GIN1138 said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    She’s gone. Not today or tomorrow but very soon.

    No she's not.

    She's safe for a year and will then try to brazen it out to the next election (her commitment not to fight another election is literally worthless) The only way we're getting rid her now is for the electorate to take matters into their own hands and vote her out (and even then she'll almost certainly try to squat in Downing St for days like Brown did)
    Tell me that when the DUP pull the rug on her Brexit and agree to support Labour in a VNOC
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,214
    Mogg and Francois are both spouting the same coordinated drivel.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,251
    Donny43 said:

    A couple of potentially significant comments:

    https://twitter.com/Mike_Fabricant/status/1072965107519508485

    Full marks for that. They need to isolate the zealots who can only damage them
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    BigIanBigIan Posts: 198
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    That May statement - "Nothing Has Changed"

    May still PM
    Jacob Rees-Mogg still a tw@
    One day she won't be PM.
    He, however, will always remain a tw@.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,109
    Jacob Rees Mogg is Grabcocque,

    He's just said there are no extremists in the Tory party.

    As epic self-awareness fails go, that's up there with Corbyn's claim he wasn't racist, it was just the Jews are out to get him.
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    AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    edited December 2018
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The ERG are about to make Corbyn PM.

    https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1072965281264402444


    I rather think 200 Tory MPs with an electoral death wish did that tonight.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,845
    tlg86 said:

    How many Tory MPs on the government payroll? If we assume they all voted for May (I know, I know), what was the split for the rest of the MPs?

    I think 102 MP ministers and whips, from a quick scan of https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers
    There may be some duplicates in there though, and I think there’s a few dozen junior bag carriers who don’t get a salary.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    tlg86 said:

    How many Tory MPs on the government payroll? If we assume they all voted for May (I know, I know), what was the split for the rest of the MPs?

    c. 117/170 non-payroll voted No Confidence
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,176
    dixiedean said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    She’s gone. Not today or tomorrow but very soon. She can’t get her deal through Parliament; she has no domestic policies to rally her party, her allies in the DUP won’t support her in a confidence vote unless she ditches the backstop which her masters in the EU won’t let her do - she’s finished.

    Probably too late to stop Corbyn winning the next election sadly. That’s May’s legacy - failing in Brexit and handing Gov over to hard left extremists.

    The no other domestic policies is key there. Nothing to unite the party around. Nothing to unite about but dread of Corbyn. Nothing to distract from the unpassable deal.
    Hang on a sec. She has just stood in front of the black door and declared that now she has the full confidence of her party she will once again bring healing to the country.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,251
    Oort said:

    JRM says he accepts the confidence vote result but Theresa May should still meet the queen and resign. That's not inconsistent, given that Tory leader and PM are different offices.

    So will he vote against the government in a VONC in the Commons?

    He will be deslected on the spot
This discussion has been closed.