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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » More Democrats put their hats into the ring in the fight for t
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » More Democrats put their hats into the ring in the fight for the nomination to take on Trump
While all in the UK have been focused on Brexit and it’s aftermath things are starting to hot up in the race to be elected president of the United States in November 2020. This will be the 5th White House campaign that will be covered by Politicalbetting since the site’s foundation in 2004.
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What does your age have to do with it, Mike ?
Long odds, and the nomination is a long time away, but ought to be able to close out the bet for a decent profit long before then.
But I can see how that might be a minority opinion.
FWIW, I posted this on the last thread, and it bears re-posting:
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/17/giuliani-mueller-collusion-investigation-1110671
Meanwhile in Boris news:
https://twitter.com/alexpartridge87/status/1086224580673454080
https://twitter.com/thedraftwriters/status/1086226911465009152
https://twitter.com/BetoORourke/status/1086175661616558081
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/jan/18/brexit-latest-news-boris-johnson-merkels-probable-successor-and-other-leading-germans-urge-uk-to-change-its-mind-and-stay-politics-live
Johnson says he did not make any remarks about Turkey during the EU referendum campaign....
Are there any politicians around who can do that? Struggling to think of any. Certainly on the front benches.
Possibly the last speech I was genuinely impressed by was Hilary Benn's during the IS debate. Tom Watson was pretty good the other day.
But making an argument in a speech to an audience, making them think......well, I'll leave it there for others to respond. I'm off out to prepare a pitch. Wish me luck.
On which subject, a nice article today on BBC by Nick Bryant, observing that Trump manages to combine the very worst characteristic of each president going back decades.
JFK's poor attention span, LBJ's bullying, Nixon's paranoia, Carter's naivety, Reagan's shallowness, Clinton's mendacity, Bush's incompetence.
The Orange One has it all, but unfortunately with none of the various positive qualities that evened up the score somewhat with the others.
Quite a remarkable individual really. Truly a one off.
We extend Article 50 until Turkey joins the EU.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/16/us/politics/bernie-sanders-discrimination-sexism.html
Biden also has issues on this front.
The Dems will want to keep the moral high ground on the pussy grabber front.
The fact that Laura K is merely a mundane conduit is of importance because she is the political editor of the BBC. Her neutrality is not the issue, it is that she just parrots the lines she is fed.
If you want a proper national TV hack, go for Peston. He's a risk taker and not always right but at least he works hard to get behind the official line, which means he often provides insights and even scoops that are beyond LK, who is just a bit rubbish.
What Matt Frei says or doesn't say in a German bakehouse is utterly trivial.
May's deal said we would enter a legally binding backstop with the EU until a technical solution to the NI border was found.
Why not suspend Article 50, and make a legally binding agreement with the British people that we will leave the EU when a technical solution to the NI border is found?
https://twitter.com/camusson/status/1086189885952876544
https://twitter.com/camusson/status/1086228723764994050
https://twitter.com/camusson/status/1086233202765762563
https://www.paulmasterton.org.uk/news/brexit-update
He gets going properly about 3 minutes in.
On the train home I said to my classmates and teacher that I thought we'd seen the next PM (they thought I was mad). I was too young to bet, but I was gutted when he didn't go for it in 2007. As it was, we'd seen the next but two PM.
Behind the scenes insights are far more likely to be of use/truth than PR lines spun out by the PM or Loto, which are a combination of lies, platitudes and self-serving positioning.
Still, don't mind me, I've got full blown TDS. It's making me a bit crazy and hard to be around.
If we could find a way to oblige future governments (beyond the moral obligation to the referendum results which many MPs seem to ignore), we can avoid the legally binding backstop with the EU.
We basically switch the bind from being with the EU, to being with the British people, which is much more acceptable if a way can be found for it to work.
There were several examples of mps yesterday on the media saying it has to be stopped but not how
Some of these politicians say TM is to blame for the 29th March no deal exit date, but 498 of them voted for it and simply had not thought if through. Each and every one of them shares collective responsibility although not the 114 who voted against
There are only 3 ways to stop it. Sign a deal (there is one ready to go), revoke A50 or extend it, subject to the 27 EU countries terms
But you also have to have a government to put forward the legislation and a HOC to vote for it
So when anyone says stop no deal, they have to say how
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1086180708069064704
because (and I say this on all projects I work on as they are always either Pilots, Proof of Concepts or Experiments)
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1086236745639886850
I also think it is within her power practically. If she put forward a bill saying that, if no deal is reached by March 28th, we will automatically revoke A50, I'm pretty certain that would get through parliament. Not doing so is her choice, whether or not that's a justifiable choice.
Pay a shilling - and watch the inmates of Bedlam for a laugh....
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2019/jan/18/death-on-demand-has-euthanasia-gone-too-far-netherlands-assisted-dying
Sure you can campaign to rejoin, but your action 2 years ago has consequences now.
https://twitter.com/praddenkeefe/status/1085959572886560768
With hindsight a viable tech solution to the border ought to have been a pre-condition of the EU referendum, since the absence of one makes a meaningful exit impossible.
Another left field idea I like is a NI only vote on a Yes/No to "Do you mind being aligned more closely to the EU than the rest of the UK is?"
A clear No to that would cut the legs off the DUP.
Most of all Theresa May, she is derelict in her duties as PM to have such a bad outcome (she admits as much herself) to be such a distinct possibility in just 2 months' time (and will so little preparation).
https://twitter.com/robtownsend/status/1086234845192298498
Can you imagine what it would be like if they, rather than Trump, where in the Whitehouse?
Sure, she wouldn't be too popular with the party after that, but that's where the famed Theresa May Sense Of Duty comes in, right?
She has a rocky road in front but she is not going to betray all she has worked for on brexit
Edit: If MPs were closing in on an agreement that could pass the Commons by 29th March, then it would be sensible to seek an extension from the EU.
AKA proper journalism.
Weird how now Gordon and Ed aren't in power anymore, he seems to be wide of the mark on basically every story these days.
But even if it made the parlimentary arithmetic harder- which it may well- that doesn't mean Brexit is off the table. Another GE, or the rise of UKIP (or a UKIP-like party) in the polls, or any number of things could change MPs' minds. They voted to invoke A50 in the first place, right?