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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Is a no-deal Brexit now the

SystemSystem Posts: 11,008
edited January 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Is a no-deal Brexit now the most popular outcome with the public?

On this week’s podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look at polling around a no-deal Brexit to see if commentators suggesting that it is the most popular outcome with the public are right.

Read the full story here


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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    I was hoping for a thread of the best Canadian ice wines...
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I was hoping for a thread of the best Canadian ice wines...

    Was that to go with the frozen Niagara Falls?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,948
    Matt Hancock just done an interview on Peston from Davos in -10 temperatures with no coat
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,161
    "Is a no-deal Brexit now the most popular outcome with the public?"

    Only until April, when they find out the trade and logistics experts were actually telling the truth.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,948
    The fact No Deal got a plurality on just 28% means very little, as the previous thread showed the Deal is still the least unacceptable choice
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,658
    It's the 'just end it' option for the most committed leavers, it's not surprising it has a certain level of popularity
    rottenborough said:

    "Is a no-deal Brexit now the most popular outcome with the public?"

    Only until April, when they find out the trade and logistics experts were actually telling the truth.

    What good does that do anyone if it is true? A warm sense of satisfaction at being right is not really at the top of many peoples' lists of outcomes, I hope.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,544
    HYUFD said:

    Matt Hancock just done an interview on Peston from Davos in -10 temperatures with no coat

    At least we know he isn't a lizard then!
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,658
    Danny565 said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    If labour are perceived to be trying to block brexit they will pay a heavy price in leave voting areas

    Ironically Cooper's amendment may facilitate Brexit, by making Brexiteers settle for May's deal.
    Well, yes, this all makes sense with the theory that Labour's best scenario is for the deal to pass, but without Labour's own fingerprints on it.
    Given how badly May has messed things up, she has made that quite difficult for them!
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,948
    edited January 2019
    Peston reports Local Government by election analysis by Harry Hayfield and internal Tory polling is forecasting a Labour+SNP+LD government in any imminent election with Labour on 254 the SNP 44 and the LDs on 27
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,948
    edited January 2019
    Farage says he would prefer another referendum to the Deal (that is assuming there would be a No Deal option of course which is not certain). He also confirms he will stand in the European elections again if Article 50 is extended
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,948
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Matt Hancock just done an interview on Peston from Davos in -10 temperatures with no coat

    At least we know he isn't a lizard then!
    He looked in urgent need of a hot chocolate though
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,658
    edited January 2019
    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1088140283798274048

    Well, there have been sillier party names.

    I do like to periodically check in on the Electoral Commission's list of parties. Cumbria First, the London Party, Saddleworth, Yorkshire and Proud!, Noca Forte and the Invictus Popular Party just some of the recent ones, some with very lofty ambitions in terms of where they say they would like to field candidates, theoretically.
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Matt Hancock just done an interview on Peston from Davos in -10 temperatures with no coat

    At least we know he isn't a lizard then!
    It's all I really ask for in my political leaders. Yet they always seem surprised when I ask the question.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,544
    HYUFD said:

    Peston reports Local Government by election analysis by Harry Hayfield and internal Tory polling is forecasting a Labour+SNP+LD government in any imminent election with Labour on 254 the SNP 44 and the LDs on 27

    Sounds ungovernable. I wouldn't count on either the SNP or LDs supporting Labour, or the Tories for that matter.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793
    HYUFD said:

    Matt Hancock just done an interview on Peston from Davos in -10 temperatures with no coat

    And the health secretary is living it up on the tax payer with multi-billionaires in Davos because???
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,658
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Peston reports Local Government by election analysis by Harry Hayfield and internal Tory polling is forecasting a Labour+SNP+LD government in any imminent election with Labour on 254 the SNP 44 and the LDs on 27

    Sounds ungovernable. I wouldn't count on either the SNP or LDs supporting Labour, or the Tories for that matter.
    Well we couldn't just keep having election after election if the British public, irritatingly, keep returning awkwardly split hung parliaments. They'd have to come up with some kind of arrangement with someone. I know the coalition has burned them, but if they don't want to be kingmakers what's the point?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,658
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Matt Hancock just done an interview on Peston from Davos in -10 temperatures with no coat

    And the health secretary is living it up on the tax payer with multi-billionaires in Davos because???
    They'll be out of office next year, how many other chances to do that is he going to get?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,948
    edited January 2019
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Peston reports Local Government by election analysis by Harry Hayfield and internal Tory polling is forecasting a Labour+SNP+LD government in any imminent election with Labour on 254 the SNP 44 and the LDs on 27

    Sounds ungovernable. I wouldn't count on either the SNP or LDs supporting Labour, or the Tories for that matter.
    The SNP and LDs would back Corbyn on confidence and supply in return for BINO or EUref2, Boris would then likely take over as Tory Leader and Leader of the Opposition on a hard Brexit platform
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,948
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Matt Hancock just done an interview on Peston from Davos in -10 temperatures with no coat

    And the health secretary is living it up on the tax payer with multi-billionaires in Davos because???
    To be fair he did not look like he was 'living it up' at that moment, he looked frozen and at risk of catching pneumonia
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HYUFD said:

    Peston reports Local Government by election analysis by Harry Hayfield and internal Tory polling is forecasting a Labour+SNP+LD government in any imminent election with Labour on 254 the SNP 44 and the LDs on 27

    Interesting, that would involve Labour losing about 8 seats.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,029
    Interesting take.
    https://twitter.com/fleetstreetfox/status/1088053996386992129?s=21
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited January 2019
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Matt Hancock just done an interview on Peston from Davos in -10 temperatures with no coat

    And the health secretary is living it up on the tax payer with multi-billionaires in Davos because???
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    Peston reports Local Government by election analysis by Harry Hayfield and internal Tory polling is forecasting a Labour+SNP+LD government in any imminent election with Labour on 254 the SNP 44 and the LDs on 27

    Based on Opinion Polls I would say that such figures are garbage.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141
    williamglenn said:

    Interesting take.
    https://twitter.com/fleetstreetfox/status/1088053996386992129?s=21

    Hmm, that doesn't really seem to refute the alternative perspective that Britain's going to leave, and it's going to be an unbelievable clusterfuck.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,948
    justin124 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Matt Hancock just done an interview on Peston from Davos in -10 temperatures with no coat

    And the health secretary is living it up on the tax payer with multi-billionaires in Davos because???
    Actually based on current polls giving a maximum Labour lead of 3% and a maximum Tory lead of 5% they look very plausible given another hung parliament is very likely
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Matt Hancock just done an interview on Peston from Davos in -10 temperatures with no coat

    And the health secretary is living it up on the tax payer with multi-billionaires in Davos because???
    Is he there at Soros I mean Davos in an official capacity
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,948
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Peston reports Local Government by election analysis by Harry Hayfield and internal Tory polling is forecasting a Labour+SNP+LD government in any imminent election with Labour on 254 the SNP 44 and the LDs on 27

    Interesting, that would involve Labour losing about 8 seats.
    Mainly to the LDs by the looks of things
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141
    OT National Review has ALL THE DIRT on KLOBUCHAR
    https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/01/twenty-things-you-probably-didnt-know-about-amy-klobuchar/

    I defy anyone to find anyone with dirt this clean.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Matt Hancock just done an interview on Peston from Davos in -10 temperatures with no coat

    And the health secretary is living it up on the tax payer with multi-billionaires in Davos because???
    Actually based on current polls giving a maximum Labour lead of 3% and a maximum Tory lead of 5% they look very plausible given another hung parliament is very likely
    No -those figures have the LibDems far too high - as is almost always true of Local Election data.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,948
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Matt Hancock just done an interview on Peston from Davos in -10 temperatures with no coat

    And the health secretary is living it up on the tax payer with multi-billionaires in Davos because???
    Actually based on current polls giving a maximum Labour lead of 3% and a maximum Tory lead of 5% they look very plausible given another hung parliament is very likely
    No -those figures have the LibDems far too high - as is almost always true of Local Election data.
    Even if they may be a bit too high there is still a strong possibility Labour would not only need SNP confidence and supply but LD confidence and supply too in order to have a working majority
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Matt Hancock just done an interview on Peston from Davos in -10 temperatures with no coat

    And the health secretary is living it up on the tax payer with multi-billionaires in Davos because???
    Actually based on current polls giving a maximum Labour lead of 3% and a maximum Tory lead of 5% they look very plausible given another hung parliament is very likely
    No -those figures have the LibDems far too high - as is almost always true of Local Election data.
    Even if they may be a bit too high there is still a strong possibility Labour would not only need SNP confidence and supply but LD confidence and supply too in order to have a working majority
    I don't disagree there - but still expect significant Labour gains at SNP expense.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    rottenborough said:

    "Is a no-deal Brexit now the most popular outcome with the public?"

    Only until April, when they find out the trade and logistics experts were actually telling the truth.

    And pigs might fly.

    "Ah yes this time there really is a wolf".
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Peston reports Local Government by election analysis by Harry Hayfield and internal Tory polling is forecasting a Labour+SNP+LD government in any imminent election with Labour on 254 the SNP 44 and the LDs on 27

    Interesting, that would involve Labour losing about 8 seats.
    Mainly to the LDs by the looks of things
    SNP are up as well. Maybe they're taking seats off both Labour and the Tories.
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    HYUFD said:

    Peston reports Local Government by election analysis by Harry Hayfield and internal Tory polling is forecasting a Labour+SNP+LD government in any imminent election with Labour on 254 the SNP 44 and the LDs on 27

    In the 2017 local elections the Conservatives put up a strong performance followed a few weeks later by a poor Conservative performance in the general election.

    Local election results do not convert to general election results so nor do polls.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    https://twitter.com/evagolinger/status/1088206537733099520
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    David_Evershed said:

    HYUFD said:

    Peston reports Local Government by election analysis by Harry Hayfield and internal Tory polling is forecasting a Labour+SNP+LD government in any imminent election with Labour on 254 the SNP 44 and the LDs on 27

    In the 2017 local elections the Conservatives put up a strong performance followed a few weeks later by a poor Conservative performance in the general election.

    Local election results do not convert to general election results so nor do polls.
    That's true. For instance at the 1983 local elections Labour won Basildon easily, then lost it to the Tories at the GE a few weeks later.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    AndyJS said:

    https://twitter.com/evagolinger/status/1088206537733099520

    If Maduro is no longer President then he has no authority to expel the diplomats.

    Given that Maduro only expelled the diplomats after the US recognised Guaido as interim President it would be extremely bizarre to say the diplomats must leave because President Maduro has ordered it.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,390
    Philip_Thompson said:

    AndyJS said:

    https://twitter.com/evagolinger/status/1088206537733099520

    If Maduro is no longer President then he has no authority to expel the diplomats.

    Given that Maduro only expelled the diplomats after the US recognised Guaido as interim President it would be extremely bizarre to say the diplomats must leave because President Maduro has ordered it.
    It should be pointed out that the EU does not recognise Maduro as president, either.
    There is widespread international agreement (which includes many South American countries) that Guaidó won the election and the results were fixed.

  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,390
    Not smart politics from Biden:
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/01/joe-biden-fred-upton-paid-speech-2020-bipartisanship.html
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141
    Nigelb said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    AndyJS said:

    https://twitter.com/evagolinger/status/1088206537733099520

    If Maduro is no longer President then he has no authority to expel the diplomats.

    Given that Maduro only expelled the diplomats after the US recognised Guaido as interim President it would be extremely bizarre to say the diplomats must leave because President Maduro has ordered it.
    It should be pointed out that the EU does not recognise Maduro as president, either.
    There is widespread international agreement (which includes many South American countries) that Guaidó won the election and the results were fixed.

    I know nothing except what Wikipedia tells me but he doesn't appear to have run in the presidential election at all???
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,658
    edmundintokyo said:

    Nigelb said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    AndyJS said:

    https://twitter.com/evagolinger/status/1088206537733099520

    If Maduro is no longer President then he has no authority to expel the diplomats.

    Given that Maduro only expelled the diplomats after the US recognised Guaido as interim President it would be extremely bizarre to say the diplomats must leave because President Maduro has ordered it.
    It should be pointed out that the EU does not recognise Maduro as president, either.
    There is widespread international agreement (which includes many South American countries) that Guaidó won the election and the results were fixed.

    I know nothing except what Wikipedia tells me but he doesn't appear to have run in the presidential election at all???
    Yes, I thought most of the opposition boycotted it and it was more about being in charge of the congress which Maduro sidelined and created a new puppet body to replace because he lost control of it?
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141
    kle4 said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Nigelb said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    AndyJS said:

    https://twitter.com/evagolinger/status/1088206537733099520

    If Maduro is no longer President then he has no authority to expel the diplomats.

    Given that Maduro only expelled the diplomats after the US recognised Guaido as interim President it would be extremely bizarre to say the diplomats must leave because President Maduro has ordered it.
    It should be pointed out that the EU does not recognise Maduro as president, either.
    There is widespread international agreement (which includes many South American countries) that Guaidó won the election and the results were fixed.

    I know nothing except what Wikipedia tells me but he doesn't appear to have run in the presidential election at all???
    Yes, I thought most of the opposition boycotted it and it was more about being in charge of the congress which Maduro sidelined and created a new puppet body to replace because he lost control of it?
    Yup, I've now spent a few more minutes on Wikipedia and become a Venezuela expert, and I can confirm that this is correct.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,924
    edmundintokyo said:

    kle4 said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Nigelb said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    AndyJS said:

    https://twitter.com/evagolinger/status/1088206537733099520

    If Maduro is no longer President then he has no authority to expel the diplomats.

    Given that Maduro only expelled the diplomats after the US recognised Guaido as interim President it would be extremely bizarre to say the diplomats must leave because President Maduro has ordered it.
    It should be pointed out that the EU does not recognise Maduro as president, either.
    There is widespread international agreement (which includes many South American countries) that Guaidó won the election and the results were fixed.

    I know nothing except what Wikipedia tells me but he doesn't appear to have run in the presidential election at all???
    Yes, I thought most of the opposition boycotted it and it was more about being in charge of the congress which Maduro sidelined and created a new puppet body to replace because he lost control of it?
    Yup, I've now spent a few more minutes on Wikipedia and become a Venezuela expert, and I can confirm that this is correct.
    I've just edited Wikipedia, so you are now - sadly - wrong
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/1088291391439032323

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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    https://twitter.com/geofftech/status/1088175785456951301?s=21
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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    Nigelb said:

    Not smart politics from Biden:
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/01/joe-biden-fred-upton-paid-speech-2020-bipartisanship.html

    Biden was praising the Republican for his work to get a bill for cancer care passed. That’s a good thing.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    https://tinyurl.com/y8odjlvd

    Guaidó was quickly recognised by the US, Canada, Brazil, Colombia and other US allies in the Americas, while the European Union said the voice of the people “cannot be ignored”.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    tlg86 said:

    https://tinyurl.com/y8odjlvd

    Guaidó was quickly recognised by the US, Canada, Brazil, Colombia and other US allies in the Americas, while the European Union said the voice of the people “cannot be ignored”.

    Except in the UK.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,390
    The “nihilistic legacy” of Grayling, this time in the court system:
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/destructive-chris-grayling-blamed-for-computer-chaos-in-courts-lsqkzd68z
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    edited January 2019
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/1088291391439032323

    "I love FrostiesState of the Union speeches. They're "great"!

    State of the Union? Run by Tony the Tiger. Fucked.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,390
    not_on_fire said:

    Nigelb said:

    Not smart politics from Biden:
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/01/joe-biden-fred-upton-paid-speech-2020-bipartisanship.html

    Biden was praising the Republican for his work to get a bill for cancer care passed. That’s a good thing.
    Endorsing a Republican (who incidentally helped lead the effort to repeal Obamacare) just ahead of a competitive midterm election isn’t smart politics for someone who might be seeking the Democratic nomination.
    Pocketing a large fee into the bargain certainly not.

  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    MarqueeMark said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://tinyurl.com/y8odjlvd

    Guaidó was quickly recognised by the US, Canada, Brazil, Colombia and other US allies in the Americas, while the European Union said the voice of the people “cannot be ignored”.

    Except in the UK.
    It's Les Mis latino style
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,948
    MarqueeMark said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://tinyurl.com/y8odjlvd

    Guaidó was quickly recognised by the US, Canada, Brazil, Colombia and other US allies in the Americas, while the European Union said the voice of the people “cannot be ignored”.

    Except in the UK.
    The UK is still in the EU
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,948
    edited January 2019
    David_Evershed said:

    HYUFD said:

    Peston reports Local Government by election analysis by Harry Hayfield and internal Tory polling is forecasting a Labour+SNP+LD government in any imminent election with Labour on 254 the SNP 44 and the LDs on 27

    In the 2017 local elections the Conservatives put up a strong performance followed a few weeks later by a poor Conservative performance in the general election.

    Local election results do not convert to general election results so nor do polls.
    Not quite true, in the 2017 local elections the Tories got 38% at the 2017 general election the Tories got 42% so the Tories actually did better at the general election than the local elections.

    However in the local elections the LDs got 18% compared to 7% at the general election while Labour got 27% in the local elections compared to 40% at the general election so all that really happened from the local elections to the general election was some LD voters moved to Labour, there was little if any net Tory to Labour movement. That is much less likely to happen next time, especially if Corbyn has not committed to back EUref2.
    Plus the calculations are based on all the local by elections over the last year not one set of local elections
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    edited January 2019
    Latest poll for Europeans France

    LaREM -23.5 - Macron
    RN - 20.5 - Le Pen
    Republicains - 11 - Wauqiez ( Sarkozys lot )
    LFI - 9.5 - Melenchon
    EELV - 9 - Greens
    PS - 6 - Socialists

    Lots of small others and undecided make the balance


  • Options
    Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,300
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Matt Hancock just done an interview on Peston from Davos in -10 temperatures with no coat

    And the health secretary is living it up on the tax payer with multi-billionaires in Davos because???
    Actually based on current polls giving a maximum Labour lead of 3% and a maximum Tory lead of 5% they look very plausible given another hung parliament is very likely
    No -those figures have the LibDems far too high - as is almost always true of Local Election data.
    Even if they may be a bit too high there is still a strong possibility Labour would not only need SNP confidence and supply but LD confidence and supply too in order to have a working majority
    I kinda feel there has to be a LD uptick sometime (maybe only lasting till March 30). For most English remainers, they’re the only show in town, and even if you think Vince ain’t great and tuition fees are bad, I can see a decent chunk of keen remainers lending their vote (or at least poll responses)
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141
    Nigelb said:

    not_on_fire said:

    Nigelb said:

    Not smart politics from Biden:
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/01/joe-biden-fred-upton-paid-speech-2020-bipartisanship.html

    Biden was praising the Republican for his work to get a bill for cancer care passed. That’s a good thing.
    Endorsing a Republican (who incidentally helped lead the effort to repeal Obamacare) just ahead of a competitive midterm election isn’t smart politics for someone who might be seeking the Democratic nomination.
    Pocketing a large fee into the bargain certainly not.

    Right - more importantly than the damage it might do, it's more evidence that he's not running.
  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,703
    HYUFD said:

    Peston reports Local Government by election analysis by Harry Hayfield and internal Tory polling is forecasting a Labour+SNP+LD government in any imminent election with Labour on 254 the SNP 44 and the LDs on 27

    So no GE anytime soon.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,948
    edited January 2019
    tlg86 said:

    https://tinyurl.com/y8odjlvd

    Guaidó was quickly recognised by the US, Canada, Brazil, Colombia and other US allies in the Americas, while the European Union said the voice of the people “cannot be ignored”.

    Not Mexico though, Lopez Obrador even invited Maduro to his inauguration as Mexican President last year.
    https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2018/11/lopezobrador_invited_maduro_to_his_inauguration.html

    Corbyn is a close pal of Lopez Obrador and praised Chavez on his death and most Corbynistas are Maduro supporters, so this is further evidence of how a Corbyn government would shift the 'special relationship' from Washington DC to Mexico City (unless say Bernie Sanders was elected US president)
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,948
    logical_song said:

    HYUFD said:

    Peston reports Local Government by election analysis by Harry Hayfield and internal Tory polling is forecasting a Labour+SNP+LD government in any imminent election with Labour on 254 the SNP 44 and the LDs on 27

    So no GE anytime soon.
    Not unless May eventually gets her Deal through and the DUP back a VONC
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,948
    edmundintokyo said:

    Nigelb said:

    not_on_fire said:

    Nigelb said:

    Not smart politics from Biden:
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/01/joe-biden-fred-upton-paid-speech-2020-bipartisanship.html

    Biden was praising the Republican for his work to get a bill for cancer care passed. That’s a good thing.
    Endorsing a Republican (who incidentally helped lead the effort to repeal Obamacare) just ahead of a competitive midterm election isn’t smart politics for someone who might be seeking the Democratic nomination.
    Pocketing a large fee into the bargain certainly not.

    Right - more importantly than the damage it might do, it's more evidence that he's not running.
    If Biden wins the nomination it will be via centrist and blue collar voters anyway and by winning in the South, Pennsylvania and the Midwest, left liberals in the party will vote for Sanders or Warren while Harris will have more appeal to the coastal states
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,948
    Harris_Tweed said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Matt Hancock just done an interview on Peston from Davos in -10 temperatures with no coat

    And the health secretary is living it up on the tax payer with multi-billionaires in Davos because???
    Actually based on current polls giving a maximum Labour lead of 3% and a maximum Tory lead of 5% they look very plausible given another hung parliament is very likely
    No -those figures have the LibDems far too high - as is almost always true of Local Election data.
    Even if they may be a bit too high there is still a strong possibility Labour would not only need SNP confidence and supply but LD confidence and supply too in order to have a working majority
    I kinda feel there has to be a LD uptick sometime (maybe only lasting till March 30). For most English remainers, they’re the only show in town, and even if you think Vince ain’t great and tuition fees are bad, I can see a decent chunk of keen remainers lending their vote (or at least poll responses)
    The longer Corbyn holds out on backing EUref2 the greater the chances of a LD revival
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    edited January 2019
    Harris_Tweed said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Matt Hancock just done an interview on Peston from Davos in -10 temperatures with no coat

    And the health secretary is living it up on the tax payer with multi-billionaires in Davos because???
    Actually based on current polls giving a maximum Labour lead of 3% and a maximum Tory lead of 5% they look very plausible given another hung parliament is very likely
    No -those figures have the LibDems far too high - as is almost always true of Local Election data.
    Even if they may be a bit too high there is still a strong possibility Labour would not only need SNP confidence and supply but LD confidence and supply too in order to have a working majority
    I kinda feel there has to be a LD uptick sometime (maybe only lasting till March 30). For most English remainers, they’re the only show in town, and even if you think Vince ain’t great and tuition fees are bad, I can see a decent chunk of keen remainers lending their vote (or at least poll responses)
    Tuition fees ARE bad

    Its a huge cock up which will hit twenty year olds twice. Once on the way in by extortionate fees and then later in life when the whole unfunded charade keels over and taxpayers have to pick up the bill. In twenty years time Willetts and Clegg will have retired while the same twenty year olds will have to pick up the tab for their folly.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754

    Ireland prepares that hard border Varadkar said wouldnt happen

    https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/hundreds-of-garda-to-patrol-border-if-no-deal-37743980.html
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,226
    HYUFD said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://tinyurl.com/y8odjlvd

    Guaidó was quickly recognised by the US, Canada, Brazil, Colombia and other US allies in the Americas, while the European Union said the voice of the people “cannot be ignored”.

    Except in the UK.
    The UK is still in the EU
    #epicfail
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,116
    Alanbrooke said:

    Harris_Tweed said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Matt Hancock just done an interview on Peston from Davos in -10 temperatures with no coat

    And the health secretary is living it up on the tax payer with multi-billionaires in Davos because???
    Actually based on current polls giving a maximum Labour lead of 3% and a maximum Tory lead of 5% they look very plausible given another hung parliament is very likely
    No -those figures have the LibDems far too high - as is almost always true of Local Election data.
    Even if they may be a bit too high there is still a strong possibility Labour would not only need SNP confidence and supply but LD confidence and supply too in order to have a working majority
    I kinda feel there has to be a LD uptick sometime (maybe only lasting till March 30). For most English remainers, they’re the only show in town, and even if you think Vince ain’t great and tuition fees are bad, I can see a decent chunk of keen remainers lending their vote (or at least poll responses)
    Tuition fees ARE bad

    Its a huge cock up which will hit twenty year olds twice. Once on the way in by extortionate fees and then later in life when the whole unfunded charade keels over and taxpayers have to pick up the bill. In twenty years time Willetts and Clegg will have retired while the same twenty year olds will have to pick up the tab for their folly.
    Agreed.

    They are, to an extent, also a mess owned by all parties. Labour decided that a self-confessed perjurer was clearly the right man to lead a review. The Conservatives, like idiots, promised to implement the proposals of this useless - I was going to say tosser, but he was lying to cover up the fact he wasn't, so that would have been silly.

    But the Liberal Democrats were the only ones to break a 'cast iron' pledge on the subject. Which was the more baffling as blocking these stupid proposals would not only have been popular, and shown integrity, and been a clear win for them in coalition, but would have been economically and socially the right course of action too.

    It is a real shame.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,948
    edited January 2019
    Alanbrooke said:

    Harris_Tweed said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Matt Hancock just done an interview on Peston from Davos in -10 temperatures with no coat

    And the health secretary is living it up on the tax payer with multi-billionaires in Davos because???
    Actually based on current polls giving a maximum Labour lead of 3% and a maximum Tory lead of 5% they look very plausible given another hung parliament is very likely
    No -those figures have the LibDems far too high - as is almost always true of Local Election data.
    Even if they may be a bit too high there is still a strong possibility Labour would not only need SNP confidence and supply but LD confidence and supply too in order to have a working majority
    I kinda feel there has to be a LD uptick sometime (maybe only lasting till March 30). For most English remainers, they’re the only show in town, and even if you think Vince ain’t great and tuition fees are bad, I can see a decent chunk of keen remainers lending their vote (or at least poll responses)
    Tuition fees ARE bad

    Its a huge cock up which will hit twenty year olds twice. Once on the way in by extortionate fees and then later in life when the whole unfunded charade keels over and taxpayers have to pick up the bill. In twenty years time Willetts and Clegg will have retired while the same twenty year olds will have to pick up the tab for their folly.
    The problem with tuition fees is you pay £9000 a year whether you study economics or medicine at Oxbridge and go off to become an investment banker or surgeon or you study creative arts or sociology at Manchester Metropolitan or Brighton University and become an artist or a social worker.

    In the US fees are more closely linked to the prestige of the college and the earnings provided by the course. Thankfully the Government is looking to change things
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,116
    HYUFD said:

    The problem with tuition fees is you pay £9000 a year whether you study economics or medicine at Oxbridge and go off to become an investment banker or surgeon or you study creative arts or sociology at Manchester Metropolitan or Brighton University and become an artist or a social worker.

    Actually, that isn't correct and even if it was it isn't the real problem. The problem is the money has been spent but the loans will not be repaid. I'd be amazed if we ever see 40% of it. That's why, leaving aside any question of principle, it's a bad system.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    HYUFD said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Harris_Tweed said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Matt Hancock just done an interview on Peston from Davos in -10 temperatures with no coat

    And the health secretary is living it up on the tax payer with multi-billionaires in Davos because???
    Actually based on current polls giving a maximum Labour lead of 3% and a maximum Tory lead of 5% they look very plausible given another hung parliament is very likely
    No -those figures have the LibDems far too high - as is almost always true of Local Election data.
    Even if they may be a bit too high there is still a strong possibility Labour would not only need SNP confidence and supply but LD confidence and supply too in order to have a working majority
    I kinda feel there has to be a LD uptick sometime (maybe only lasting till March 30). For most English remainers, they’re the only show in town, and even if you think Vince ain’t great and tuition fees are bad, I can see a decent chunk of keen remainers lending their vote (or at least poll responses)
    Tuition fees ARE bad

    Its a huge cock up which will hit twenty year olds twice. Once on the way in by extortionate fees and then later in life when the whole unfunded charade keels over and taxpayers have to pick up the bill. In twenty years time Willetts and Clegg will have retired while the same twenty year olds will have to pick up the tab for their folly.
    The problem with tuition fees is you pay £9000 a year whether you study economics or medicine at Oxbridge and go off to become an investment banker or surgeon or you study creative arts or sociology at Manchester Metropolitan or Brighton University and become an artist or a social worker.

    In the US fees are more closely linked to the prestige of the college and the earnings provided by the course. Thankfully the Government is looking to change things
    The US has a bigger problem than we have
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,917
    The barefaced venality of the Buccaneering Brexiteers is truly a thing of wonder. They really do sock it to the elite.
    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1088131959589617666
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,969
    Good morning, everyone.

    I think the chance of no deal is receding, but it's still very unclear. The only thing that's obvious is that both front benches are incompetent. It's a bit Honorius/Arcadius.
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141
    HYUFD said:

    If Biden wins the nomination it will be via centrist and blue collar voters anyway and by winning in the South, Pennsylvania and the Midwest, left liberals in the party will vote for Sanders or Warren while Harris will have more appeal to the coastal states

    Generally Democratic primary voters aren't keen on Republicans, that's not particularly a coastal liberal thing. And shady-sounding speaking fees were one of the things that did for Hillary in the Midwest.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,544
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    The problem with tuition fees is you pay £9000 a year whether you study economics or medicine at Oxbridge and go off to become an investment banker or surgeon or you study creative arts or sociology at Manchester Metropolitan or Brighton University and become an artist or a social worker.

    Actually, that isn't correct and even if it was it isn't the real problem. The problem is the money has been spent but the loans will not be repaid. I'd be amazed if we ever see 40% of it. That's why, leaving aside any question of principle, it's a bad system.
    Though it is far more likely that Oxbridge and Medical graduates will repay in full, while graduates of Neasden University do not. Peversely the system subsidises bad courses.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,544
    Alanbrooke said:

    Latest poll for Europeans France

    LaREM -23.5 - Macron
    RN - 20.5 - Le Pen
    Republicains - 11 - Wauqiez ( Sarkozys lot )
    LFI - 9.5 - Melenchon
    EELV - 9 - Greens
    PS - 6 - Socialists

    Lots of small others and undecided make the balance


    So in the French 2 round system it is Macron vs Le Pen, with a Macron landslide again.

  • Options
    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    edited January 2019
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    The problem with tuition fees is you pay £9000 a year whether you study economics or medicine at Oxbridge and go off to become an investment banker or surgeon or you study creative arts or sociology at Manchester Metropolitan or Brighton University and become an artist or a social worker.

    Actually, that isn't correct and even if it was it isn't the real problem. The problem is the money has been spent but the loans will not be repaid. I'd be amazed if we ever see 40% of it. That's why, leaving aside any question of principle, it's a bad system.
    Though it is far more likely that Oxbridge and Medical graduates will repay in full, while graduates of Neasden University do not. Peversely the system subsidises bad courses.
    The way to look at it is a “no win,no fee” arrangement. If you are successful post-University you will pay back a fair bit but if you just achieve mediocrity then the payments are modest.

    The ones who are really screwed by the current system are those who make £50k or thereabouts - a reasonably large contributor (about £250 a month) but no hope of paying off the loan.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,116
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    The problem with tuition fees is you pay £9000 a year whether you study economics or medicine at Oxbridge and go off to become an investment banker or surgeon or you study creative arts or sociology at Manchester Metropolitan or Brighton University and become an artist or a social worker.

    Actually, that isn't correct and even if it was it isn't the real problem. The problem is the money has been spent but the loans will not be repaid. I'd be amazed if we ever see 40% of it. That's why, leaving aside any question of principle, it's a bad system.
    Though it is far more likely that Oxbridge and Medical graduates will repay in full, while graduates of Neasden University do not. Peversely the system subsidises bad courses.
    I think there are three professions where full repayment is guaranteed - law, medicine and banking. The rest, it's a lottery and that applies regardless of university. Most teachers and certainly most female teachers will not. That said the graduates of lower ranked universities tend not to pay the full whack anyway.

    Have a good morning.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,544
    edmundintokyo said:

    OT National Review has ALL THE DIRT on KLOBUCHAR
    https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/01/twenty-things-you-probably-didnt-know-about-amy-klobuchar/

    I defy anyone to find anyone with dirt this clean.

    She does seem weirdly normal for a politician, and reassuringly middle class middle America. That all important weird name factor too.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Harris_Tweed said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Matt Hancock just done an interview on Peston from Davos in -10 temperatures with no coat

    And the health secretary is living it up on the tax payer with multi-billionaires in Davos because???
    Actually based on current polls giving a maximum Labour lead of 3% and a maximum Tory lead of 5% they look very plausible given another hung parliament is very likely
    No -those figures have the LibDems far too high - as is almost always true of Local Election data.
    Even if they may be a bit too high there is still a strong possibility Labour would not only need SNP confidence and supply but LD confidence and supply too in order to have a working majority
    I kinda feel there has to be a LD uptick sometime (maybe only lasting till March 30). For most English remainers, they’re the only show in town, and even if you think Vince ain’t great and tuition fees are bad, I can see a decent chunk of keen remainers lending their vote (or at least poll responses)
    In 2017 the lib Dems lost 10% of their vote in Scotland but gained seats.

    They should cross their fingers that the gods of tactical voting smile on them nationwide.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,966
    SouthamObserver said:

    The barefaced venality of the Buccaneering Brexiteers is truly a thing of wonder. They really do sock it to the elite.
    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1088131959589617666

    Though I find it hard to believe, apparently these people once had reputations of some note. I suppose they deserve some compensation for the absolute trashing of those reputations.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,226
    not_on_fire said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    The problem with tuition fees is you pay £9000 a year whether you study economics or medicine at Oxbridge and go off to become an investment banker or surgeon or you study creative arts or sociology at Manchester Metropolitan or Brighton University and become an artist or a social worker.

    Actually, that isn't correct and even if it was it isn't the real problem. The problem is the money has been spent but the loans will not be repaid. I'd be amazed if we ever see 40% of it. That's why, leaving aside any question of principle, it's a bad system.
    Though it is far more likely that Oxbridge and Medical graduates will repay in full, while graduates of Neasden University do not. Peversely the system subsidises bad courses.
    The way to look at it is a “no win,no fee” arrangement. If you are successful post-University you will pay back a fair bit but if you just achieve mediocrity then the payments are modest.

    The ones who are really screwed by the current system are those who make £50k or thereabouts - a reasonably large contributor (about £250 a month) but no hope of paying off the loan.
    Yes, the LibDems pushed hard on the detail and got something that actually works closer to a graduate tax rather than a loan scheme, but made the fatal mistake of allowing the Tories to retain the way it is described and presented.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    Alanbrooke said:


    Ireland prepares that hard border Varadkar said wouldnt happen

    https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/hundreds-of-garda-to-patrol-border-if-no-deal-37743980.html

    2 Gardai at each of 300 crossings..... So, one at each, working 12 hour shifts, 7 days a week? Like that's going to happen.....
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,948
    edited January 2019
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    The problem with tuition fees is you pay £9000 a year whether you study economics or medicine at Oxbridge and go off to become an investment banker or surgeon or you study creative arts or sociology at Manchester Metropolitan or Brighton University and become an artist or a social worker.

    Actually, that isn't correct and even if it was it isn't the real problem. The problem is the money has been spent but the loans will not be repaid. I'd be amazed if we ever see 40% of it. That's why, leaving aside any question of principle, it's a bad system.
    Though it is far more likely that Oxbridge and Medical graduates will repay in full, while graduates of Neasden University do not. Peversely the system subsidises bad courses.
    I think there are three professions where full repayment is guaranteed - law, medicine and banking. The rest, it's a lottery and that applies regardless of university. Most teachers and certainly most female teachers will not. That said the graduates of lower ranked universities tend not to pay the full whack anyway.

    Have a good morning.
    Medicine and banking maybe but legal aid lawyers do not earn much more than average unless they are QCs, not all lawyers do commercial law or work for big City firms
    edmundintokyo said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Biden wins the nomination it will be via centrist and blue collar voters anyway and by winning in the South, Pennsylvania and the Midwest, left liberals in the party will vote for Sanders or Warren while Harris will have more appeal to the coastal states

    Generally Democratic primary voters aren't keen on Republicans, that's not particularly a coastal liberal thing. And shady-sounding speaking fees were one of the things that did for Hillary in the Midwest.
    Democrats tend to be more conservative and moderate in the South and Midwest though
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,226
    Airbus has branded the UK government’s handling of Brexit a “disgrace” and warned the aerospace firm could pull out of the UK if the country crashes out of the EU without a deal.
    In a video message released on Thursday, Tom Enders, the chief executive, warned that if there was a no-deal Brexit, Airbus would have to make “potentially very harmful decisions for the UK”.

    He added: “Please don’t listen to the Brexiteers’ madness which asserts that because have huge plants here we will not move and we will always be here. They are wrong.”
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,983
    Foxy said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    OT National Review has ALL THE DIRT on KLOBUCHAR
    https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/01/twenty-things-you-probably-didnt-know-about-amy-klobuchar/

    I defy anyone to find anyone with dirt this clean.

    She does seem weirdly normal for a politician, and reassuringly middle class middle America. That all important weird name factor too.
    KLOBUCHAR is so normal it would be hard for Trump to make any shit stick on her. Maybe America will be ready for normal next year.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    I think the chance of no deal is receding, but it's still very unclear. The only thing that's obvious is that both front benches are incompetent. It's a bit Honorius/Arcadius.

    If only there were a Stilicho on hand.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,948
    Alanbrooke said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Harris_Tweed said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Matt Hancock just done an interview on Peston from Davos in -10 temperatures with no coat

    And the health secretary is living it up on the tax payer with multi-billionaires in Davos because???
    Actually based on current polls giving a maximum Labour lead of 3% and a maximum Tory lead of 5% they look very plausible given another hung parliament is very likely
    No -those figures have the LibDems far too high - as is almost always true of Local Election data.
    Even if they may be a bit too high there is still a strong possibility Labour would not only need SNP confidence and supply but LD confidence and supply too in order to have a working majority
    I kinda feel there has to be a LD uptick sometime (maybe only lasting till March 30). For most English remainers, they’re the only show in town, and even if you think Vince ain’t great and tuition fees are bad, I can see a decent chunk of keen remainers lending their vote (or at least poll responses)
    Tuition fees ARE bad

    Its a huge cock up which will hit twenty year olds twice. Once on the way in by extortionate fees and then later in life when the whole unfunded charade keels over and taxpayers have to pick up the bill. In twenty years time Willetts and Clegg will have retired while the same twenty year olds will have to pick up the tab for their folly.
    The problem with tuition fees is you pay £9000 a year whether you study economics or medicine at Oxbridge and go off to become an investment banker or surgeon or you study creative arts or sociology at Manchester Metropolitan or Brighton University and become an artist or a social worker.

    In the US fees are more closely linked to the prestige of the college and the earnings provided by the course. Thankfully the Government is looking to change things
    The US has a bigger problem than we have
    US fees at the Ivy league are even higher than Oxbridge but the highest fees do tend to go to courses with the highest graduate earnings premium
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,948
    edited January 2019
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    The problem with tuition fees is you pay £9000 a year whether you study economics or medicine at Oxbridge and go off to become an investment banker or surgeon or you study creative arts or sociology at Manchester Metropolitan or Brighton University and become an artist or a social worker.

    Actually, that isn't correct and even if it was it isn't the real problem. The problem is the money has been spent but the loans will not be repaid. I'd be amazed if we ever see 40% of it. That's why, leaving aside any question of principle, it's a bad system.
    If fees were much lower than now for courses and universities with a lower graduate earnings premium actually loans would be more likely to be repaid
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,966
    not_on_fire said:

    https://twitter.com/geofftech/status/1088175785456951301?s=21

    Who could gave foreseen a few years ago that vacuum cleaners would feature in political propaganda? We are blessed to live in such times.
  • Options
    TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    IanB2 said:

    Airbus has branded the UK government’s handling of Brexit a “disgrace” and warned the aerospace firm could pull out of the UK if the country crashes out of the EU without a deal.
    In a video message released on Thursday, Tom Enders, the chief executive, warned that if there was a no-deal Brexit, Airbus would have to make “potentially very harmful decisions for the UK”.

    He added: “Please don’t listen to the Brexiteers’ madness which asserts that because have huge plants here we will not move and we will always be here. They are wrong.”

    Not that I don't appreciate the warning in advance now but I'm curious if he managed to make any statements in favour of Ed in GE'15 who didn't want a referendum or Corbyn in GE'17 who didn't want no deal?

    Businesses speaking up now have surely waited too long, any chance they have to turn public opinion is limited. They can pressure politicians but that doesn't require talking in public.

    I just wonder if they are talking in public out of desperation/hope or they have been asked too by politicians they are speaking too.
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,100
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Peston reports Local Government by election analysis by Harry Hayfield and internal Tory polling is forecasting a Labour+SNP+LD government in any imminent election with Labour on 254 the SNP 44 and the LDs on 27

    Interesting, that would involve Labour losing about 8 seats.
    Mainly to the LDs by the looks of things
    SNP are up as well. Maybe they're taking seats off both Labour and the Tories.
    The SNP should consider putting up candidates in England and Wales.
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141
    Maybe I'm late to this but if you've got Netflix, the Fyre Festival documentary is pretty great.

    (This is on-topic because of the Brexit parallels that will become obvious when you watch it.)
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,226
    TheJezziah said:

    IanB2 said:

    Airbus has branded the UK government’s handling of Brexit a “disgrace” and warned the aerospace firm could pull out of the UK if the country crashes out of the EU without a deal.
    In a video message released on Thursday, Tom Enders, the chief executive, warned that if there was a no-deal Brexit, Airbus would have to make “potentially very harmful decisions for the UK”.

    He added: “Please don’t listen to the Brexiteers’ madness which asserts that because have huge plants here we will not move and we will always be here. They are wrong.”

    Not that I don't appreciate the warning in advance now but I'm curious if he managed to make any statements in favour of Ed in GE'15 who didn't want a referendum or Corbyn in GE'17 who didn't want no deal?

    Businesses speaking up now have surely waited too long, any chance they have to turn public opinion is limited. They can pressure politicians but that doesn't require talking in public.

    I just wonder if they are talking in public out of desperation/hope or they have been asked too by politicians they are speaking too.
    Or simply that big business is starting to question the value of the firm promise they were made by government that we would never leave without a deal?
  • Options
    _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Dura_Ace said:

    Foxy said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    OT National Review has ALL THE DIRT on KLOBUCHAR
    https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/01/twenty-things-you-probably-didnt-know-about-amy-klobuchar/

    I defy anyone to find anyone with dirt this clean.

    She does seem weirdly normal for a politician, and reassuringly middle class middle America. That all important weird name factor too.
    KLOBUCHAR is so normal it would be hard for Trump to make any shit stick on her. Maybe America will be ready for normal next year.
    That is one of the weakest muck-rakes I have ever read! What’s the significance of the upper case billing of this lady, by the way?
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,969
    Mr. Meeks, even if there were, he'd likely end up the same way career-wise.
  • Options
    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    HYUFD said:



    US fees at the Ivy league are even higher than Oxbridge but the highest fees do tend to go to courses with the highest graduate earnings premium

    Actually, US fees at ***State Universities*** are higher than Oxbridge.

    Take the State University of NJ. In state annual tuition fees are $ 15k, out-of-state are $ 31K.

    Ivy League are way, way more.

    Best deal in University Education is an EU (No Welsh, English, N Irish) student at Edinburgh. A university in the global top twenty with no fees.

    In fact, it is such a good deal, I don't really understand why Edinburgh Uni is not overwhelmed.
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    The problem with tuition fees is you pay £9000 a year whether you study economics or medicine at Oxbridge and go off to become an investment banker or surgeon or you study creative arts or sociology at Manchester Metropolitan or Brighton University and become an artist or a social worker.

    Actually, that isn't correct and even if it was it isn't the real problem. The problem is the money has been spent but the loans will not be repaid. I'd be amazed if we ever see 40% of it. That's why, leaving aside any question of principle, it's a bad system.
    If fees were much lower than now for courses and universities with a lower graduate earnings premium actually loans would be more likely to be repaid
    One problem with that is that crudely checking what graduates earn and crediting the course with that sum, which is what seems to be proposed over this and the last thread, is ludicrous and calculated to favour Oxbridge and Russell Group.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141
    _Anazina_ said:

    What’s the significance of the upper case billing of this lady, by the way?

    It's the best I can do given Vanilla's limited emoji support.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,249
    I mean it’s an interesting argument - the people voted to Leave, Parliament seems to be dragging its feet, so close down Parliament and the people’s will will be enacted.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,100
    It's beyond me how we ended up sending nearly half the population on three-year residential courses that are of no earthly use to most of them.
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    _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Foxy said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Latest poll for Europeans France

    LaREM -23.5 - Macron
    RN - 20.5 - Le Pen
    Republicains - 11 - Wauqiez ( Sarkozys lot )
    LFI - 9.5 - Melenchon
    EELV - 9 - Greens
    PS - 6 - Socialists

    Lots of small others and undecided make the balance


    So in the French 2 round system it is Macron vs Le Pen, with a Macron landslide again.


    Yup. Macca sitting pretty despite the wishful thinking of the Francophobe obsessives on here.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,917
    Foxy said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Latest poll for Europeans France

    LaREM -23.5 - Macron
    RN - 20.5 - Le Pen
    Republicains - 11 - Wauqiez ( Sarkozys lot )
    LFI - 9.5 - Melenchon
    EELV - 9 - Greens
    PS - 6 - Socialists

    Lots of small others and undecided make the balance


    So in the French 2 round system it is Macron vs Le Pen, with a Macron landslide again.

    The Gilets said they'd be putting up candidates last night apparently. If that is true, it is more good news for Macron. They seem to have been designed to help him.

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