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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Nancy Pelosi 1 Donald Trump 0
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Nancy Pelosi 1 Donald Trump 0
Donald Trump has just announced that the Government shutdown is over. This means that the 800k government workers who have not been paid since before Christmas will now be paid.
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https://twitter.com/profcarroll/status/1088626729009246209?s=21
Now we need some of that here, good news I mean
Is the endgame here that Congress agrees to a little more funding for border fencing, Trump insists it's a see-through wall, and everyone gets to claim victory?
Or will there be another long shutdown that ends with another temporary funding deal just before a no-deal Brexit?
The only solution is to make it a federal crime to employ illegal immigrants, punishable by large fines and prison time for the company bosses, plus a scheme for illegal workers to gain citizenship by reporting those employers.
But then food prices would go up and Corporate America would lobby against it.
So a wall it is...
Mind you, today hasn’t exactly been great for him, and losing to Pelosi must ... burn.
50 overs under his belt.
I think Trump probably has difficulty empathising with the Federal Government workers. He probably views them as parasites rather than essential to keeping the US ticking over. Trump was of course born with a silver spoon in his mouth rather like some of the crazy people wanting a Hard Brexit that can be found in the UK. You never here the end of it if you take money away from this type of person but they will deprive those less fortunate themselves with cold indifference.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/427009-ojeda-drops-out-of-presidential-race
(Or is it the second ?)
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=HGjH605zxbQ
Holder and Dowrich's stand of 295 may be impressive, but it's neither a seventh-wicket record for West Indies, nor a seventh-wicket record at Bridgetown. And nor it is even a seventh-wicket record between a captain and his wicketkeeper!
http://www.espncricinfo.com/series/17430/scorecard/62792/west-indies-vs-australia-4th-test-australia-tour-of-west-indies-1955
Would still be an improvement.
Where is our Pelosi?
https://twitter.com/cspan/status/1088513396834742273?s=21
https://twitter.com/anncoulter/status/1088888030901882880?s=21
1) this never happened. It is all EU lies
or
2) this is a great victory for Britain
or
3) All of the above...
For some reason, I found this less than reassuring ...
Lamb farmers in the UK would be able to sell every Lamb they reared. It is that simple.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/25/conservative-donors-refuse-hand-cash-disgust-theresa-mays-leadership/
The bit I can see does not disclose whether the donors think the UK should Hard Brexit/ May Deal Brexit or Remain. Looks like the threat of a snap General Election is removed from the PM's armoury unless it is disinformation!
Good night.
Perfect 8 wins out of 8 for Ole - Give him the job
Whatever the price, it’s “worth it”...
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2019/01/24/lawrence_odonnell_pelosi_crushed_president_trump_over_state_of_the_union.html
But you are worryingly blase about the likely impact on farm incomes.
Let us assume that a lamb farmer today has costs of £50,000, and revenues of £100,000. (And for his costs, I'm assuming everything except his own labour.)
Now, assume that British lamb is subject to 50% tariffs going into the EU. This means that the EU will - in all likelihood - import more New Zealand lamb, and their overall consumption will fall slightly, as the cost to consumers will have risen and price elasticity of demand.
British lamb could be sold into the US or other foreign markets. But it will be competing with New Zealand lamb, and there are transport costs, and tariffs. (Especially as the UK has utterly failed to replicate existing EU agreements.)
Together this means that the clearing price for British lamb will be lower. It will need to be cheaper to either overcome tariffs in the EU (or elsewhere abroad), or it will need to be cheaper to displace beef demand.
Let us assume the right number that prices will be 20% lower. Now, this may be ameliorated somewhat by a lower pound. But, it may not. And of course certain inputs (like the cost of fuel for the farmer's Defender) will be imported, and therefore they will rise the fall in Sterling.
So, the farmer's revenues will fall £20,000, or 20%. But his income will fall 40% to £30,000. That's a pretty huge drop. And I suspect that most farmers actually run on leaner profit margins than that, especially once loans are taken into account.
Also, my number is an average. There will be sheep farmers today who are already marginal, just as there are ones who make robust profits. Some people will lose out, and will lose out badly. No Deal Brexit might - on a two decade view - result in a GDP 10% larger than would be the case if we stayed in the EU, or left with a deal. (Who knows?) But what we do know is that the sudden imposition of tariffs on certain sectors of the economy would have a pretty severe impact.
https://twitter.com/michaelmalice/status/1088891977003868160
With your point above talking about export markets, if we have no deals with the RoW Lamb suppliers than all current Lamb that comes in tariff free will be subject to as you say potentially 50% tariffs. So UK Lamb will still be competitive in the UK market without having to find export markets, because demand for raw meat outstrips supply or outstrips noncompetitive supply.
The major factor that could bankrupt Lamb farmers is the UK government response. If they open the UK market to unlimited supply at zero tariffs then Lamb farmers are in trouble.
I have not made this argument before, but I would argue because of the politics of Welsh Lamb farmers going bust they would do as every other developed country does, manage the import of lamb with a set quota of zero tariffs to maintain Lamb production in the UK. They also manage for cyclical reasons i.e NZ Lamb provides a supply when UK producers are not delivering Lamb to the market.
Some remainers here love to scream about hypothetical damage to our economy if we leave.
Look at actual damage to real peoples lives in countries that are in the EU.
Ironically we acted as a safety valve for some of those countries - imagine their unemployment rates if they couldn't leave to find work
It’s unnecessary in the sense that the staff don’t want it, the FDA doesn’t like it, the pharma companies don’t want it and patients will suffer. But the EU commission can go and buff their nails and feel good about themselves.
It rather reminds me of this classic poll finding on Freedom of Movement:
https://twitter.com/osheaf01/status/1087045757725753344
Although trying to reduce my addiction to this site and despite having been sickened beyond belief by the posturing of our politicians I was drawn back by the above comment from the previous thread.
While not wanting to mention the B word, South Yorkshire isn't a good example of current woe - houses, industrial units, hotels and even restaurants and shops are being built as fast I've ever seen and even the Guardian reports on a jobs boom:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/14/uk-jobs-boom-strongest-in-south-yorkshire-and-merseyside-thinktank-finds
I can't talk about stray dogs but the slag heaps have been around for over a century and they've been landscaped now.
https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/about-us/who-we-are/management-board
https://thehill.com/homenews/media/427057-nixon-foundation-distances-nixon-from-roger-stone-after-indictment