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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Coming to a Brexit near you: Rejoin
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Coming to a Brexit near you: Rejoin
Whether the UK leaves the EU is still just about a question of ‘if’ as well as (or instead of) ‘when’, although of course ‘if’, being open-ended, isn’t of itself very meaningful. Suffice to say that the not-very-liquid Betfair market on Brexit date has ‘not before 2022’ at 4.2 – or, in percentage terms, a 24% chance. This is now slightly shorter than the 4.4 best price on 2019Q1: odds only justified by the chance of a No Deal Brexit occurring without an Article 50 extension.
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(My excuse, I was actually with Bill Maher and Ann Coulter this evening, and got to hang out with the writing staff. Man, those guys are sharp.)
Once we are out, we are out.
Won’t Corbyn do what he does best and simply pretend to ignore the question ?
That being said, I suspect that we will have a closer relationship with the EU going forward than - for example - Nadine Dorries would approve.
https://twitter.com/Mediaite/status/1089005870766264320?s=19
If it is in the next year or two, then it will probably be too soon, especially as Corbyn is likely to still be leader. However, come 2022, with a new leader (Corbyn is odds against lasting beyond 2020 according to Betfair) and three years into the expected immediate downside and perhaps chaotic aftermath of Brexit, then I think having Rejoin as a manifesto commitment will be hard to resist.
Ministers have been warned that they will be unable to defeat a cross-party move to rule out a no-deal Brexit in the Commons next week.
Senior government sources said they had all but given up trying to stop a crucial amendment to the government’s motion being passed on Tuesday. The move, which has the backing of more than 200 MPs, calls for Theresa May to rule out a no-deal Brexit. It is being proposed by the former Conservative cabinet minister Dame Caroline Spelman and Labour’s Jack Dromey.
Whips are understood to be telling Tory opponents of a no-deal Brexit that they would rather they supported this amendment than a rival move by Labour’s Yvette Cooper that would hand parliament the power to demand an extension of Article 50.
“Given where opinion is in the House no one really thinks we have a chance of defeating the Spelman amendment,” a senior government source said. “But we might be able to persuade enough of our people just to vote for that, and vote against Cooper, which is constitutionally far more significant.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-whips-surrender-over-plan-to-stop-no-deal-9qx77q28n
I, for one, would not like to suggest she has had any surgery.
BTW the Irish minister on Today this morning was unable to give any account of how it is that (1) if we crash out without a WA, Ireland won't impose a hard border, but (2) the backstop is essential to prevent a hard border. Is this puzzle going to become important very soon?
https://twitter.com/debmattinson/status/1089073761037545472?s=21
It's almost certainly true that some ultras will found a Rejoin campaign immediately, but the committed support for such a thing amongst the electorate as a whole will be minimal (save, perhaps, for in Scotland and Northern Ireland, and even there they'll merely form a part of the wider campaign for secession, as David Herdson correctly alludes to.) And we should not, of course, over-estimate the enthusiasm for having us back amongst the rest of the EU states, either.
I believe that the campaign to go back into the EU would have about as much support and relevance as the campaign to abolish the monarchy. Yes, there are perfectly good arguments to be advanced in support of both propositions. And yes, someone would do a big poll every year or two suggesting that a quarter or even a third of the population was amenable to the idea - in theory. However, the numbers who'd genuinely care about the cause in practice, and be willing to invest any time or money in it, would be small.
Rejoin would be a fringe movement to which most of us would pay little or no attention, regardless of how loudly and passionately it shouted.
It is a short step from there to Rejoin, so that we can have a say in the deals and rules.
The EU won't have changed much. It may be even more closely aligned without us there. And by then, we'll have other commitments too. The old headline …'Fog blankets channel, Europe cut off' will be true.
And, most importantly, the settlement with the EU will constantly being picked at by diehard Leavers because they are clinically insane.
So rejoin will have plenty of traction.
Because that is how it will be framed. NHS Top Trumps the EU, every time.
In fact it suggests a poweful argument that might cut through what is now a very boring debate: that we should can Brexit because it is stopping us focusing on the real issues.
Great report. Depressing read.
1. We will not rejoin.
2. We will end up quite closely aligned to the EU.
3. Anything that goes wrong in the UK in the next five years, irrespective of the fundamental cause, will be blamed on Brexit.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/08/18/how-brexit-is-blinding-us-resulting-in-other-massive-issues-being-ignored/
https://twitter.com/cstross/status/1089076878286221312
It may be that labour come out to rejoin but I very much doubt the conservatives will do so anytime soon
I can wholly understand why the EU supporters cling to the hope it will happen soon but, if we do leave, I think re-joining could be a rather distant ambition
Suppose there's an amendment backing May's deal but with a time-limited backstop.
And the EU refuses to agree.
Does the deal happen, but with a potentially permanent backstop that can only be left with EU permission?
That'll calm things down...
(We won't rejoin since the EU won't offer terms anywhere as good as the ones we have just rejected. I am sure we will end up quite closely aligned politically and economically as the EU is the closest large political/ economic organisation to us - if it doesn't fracture).
Still think it is half-time. The WH have stated and confirmed Mr Trump's statement he will issue a state of emergency in three weeks regarding the wall. Whether that is a bluff will be soon discovered.
Imagine that this Parliament runs its term and that the 2022 GE is fought between the Tories running almost entirely on a domestic agenda and a post-Corbyn Labour Party wanting to pick at the open wounds of Brexit - whether through advocating a Norway-type arrangement alone, or promoting that as a bridge to a medium-term plan to go back into the EU. The Conservative campaign writes itself doesn't it?
1. We already had this argument, for years - for Christ's sake let's not go back there.
2. Labour won't stop banging on about Europe, will they?
(as well as 3. Which taxes are they going to raise/which hospitals are they going to close to cover the membership fees?)
Sounds like a good night, the likes of Maher do a very good job of making something very well honed and scripted sound completely off the cuff - Maher more than most as the show goes out live.
Of course it will, dear.....
P4
Devastated pessimists (dissspoibted with results / no significant positives to leaving) down from 37 to 33
Accepting pragmatists (dissappointed but can see some significant positives from leaving) up from 9% to 12%
Die Hards (pleased and no significant downsides to leaving) up from 27 to 30
Cautious optimists (pleases but have done significant concerns) flat at 16
It’s just at the edge of MoE (assuming standard +/-3 but haven’t checked) but all pointing in sane direction. Only 1 month obviously but I suspect most people have only just started paying attention. What I also find intriguing (anecdote) is that I’ve started hearing more people talking about Brexit in the tube and street all they all seem well informed and thoughtful (on all sides)
Have saved the rest but not read yet
https://twitter.com/erinscafe/status/1088959245553360896
Deranged: 37
Deluded: 16
Irrationally optimistic: 14
Realists: 30
Don’t know: 3
Now it is:
Deranged: 30
Deluded: 16
Irrationally optimistic: 12
Realists: 33
Don’t know: 9
Well I guess that’s one way of persuading the voters
In practice the FTA will include Customs Union and Single Market alignment, and subscriptions to pay for EU run agencies. No Commissioners and MEPs to give the EU27 difficulties. It will suit them well.
Bearing in mind that EU allegiance is now a core part of most voters’ identity, this is a baffling continuing failure.
You are also assuming that we won't be paying anything into the EU once we are "out". I think that's quite unlikely.
That’s quality abuse. Well done.
PS. Greetings from Kerala in southern India. Hope you're not still freezing your proverbials off
We are truly down a Trumpian rabbit hole and desperately needing our own Pelosi.
Given the EU have said they wanted a deal I believe the former, but people are very inconsistent in defending them either as being very conciliatory but we're bastards, or not conciliatory at all but that's ok as were bastards.
It also fails onto the same thinking as the ultra leavers. They think anything agreed with the EU must be bad because the EU agreed it. These people think anything the EU concedes means them doing us a favour, even if it would help us both. Both ultras seem to have no idea what negotiation means.
It is possible that this will look attractive if we have not made a success of our independence but I doubt it. I also think that the EU itself would need a lot of persuasion that we would not be a disruptive influence again.
Moreover, even if we agree an exit deal we have many more years of this to come.
We need to end the shitfest.
Vote to end Brexit and start talking about what matters to people again.
(I thank you)
When people over interpret very bland statements to such a degree it is very telling. Presumably he thinks he is being unreasonable too and so assumes it's all about him.
Leavers massively underestimate how successful they have been in making the EU a central issue of British politics. Congratulations, your monomania has become contagious and mutated.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-46991602
If the EU were to accept it they'd surely make their own tweak and send it back to us. Why wouldn't they? If it's reopened it's reopened.
So they won't.
https://twitter.com/HTScotPol/status/1089091443552149504