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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » “TMay exit” level-pegging with “UK leaving the EU” on the whic

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited January 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » “TMay exit” level-pegging with “UK leaving the EU” on the which’ll happen first betting market

This Betfair exchange market is one of of my current favourites because it combines what is overwhelmingly the big UK political issue for many years, Brexit, with the future of TMay.

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Comments

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,964
    The price for lots of Brexiteer votes supporting her deal is that May goes - so somebody sensible can come in and start dismantling aspects of it......
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    somebody sensible can come in and start dismantling aspects of it......

    Does not compute...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Fifth :(
  • Brexit has revealed like never before how extraordinarily dense most MPs are. They are just people who are good at sitting in endless meetings without falling asleep.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    FPT: Good afternoon, everyone.

    When do we learn which amendments His Ever So Humbleness has selected?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    FPT: Good afternoon, everyone.

    When do we learn which amendments His Ever So Humbleness has selected?

    Tomorrow, at the start of the debate
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,010
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. P, cheers.

    Mr. Slackbladder, very unfair on Canute, who was a rather more decisive leader.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited January 2019
    Dominic Grieve on manoeuvres...

    Dominic Grieve has been spamming MPs with a letter trying to convince them to back his amendment (g) tomorrow.

    https://order-order.com/2019/01/28/dominic-grieves-slippery-letter-mps/
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Chris said:
    Sat on their park bench like bookends.
  • Meet the man behind a third of what's on Wikipedia

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JhNczOuhxeg
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. P, May is very much more Varro than Hannibal.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,776
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Sean_F said:

    That seems like a false economy.

    Makes sense if they won't have any fresh food to sell...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,097

    Meet the man behind a third of what's on Wikipedia

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JhNczOuhxeg

    Tbf having "edited a third of the articles on WP", whilst impressive, is massively short of being "behind a third" of the content.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Scott_P said:
    The sad truth is that every possible outcome now will still be a win for Vladimir Vladimirovich.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited January 2019
    Sean_F said:
    Tesco's have a big problem. Aldi and Lidl are killing them on price, and they are stuck with all these massive stores to hold the extensive range of SKUs, much of which now people are buying online e.g. electronics.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745
    Afternoon all :)

    Trying to get my head round the various amendments on offer this week.

    The fundamentals haven't changed - we either agree the WA or we leave without a Deal on 29/3. I'm assuming May won't unilaterally revoke A50 because that would be political and electoral suicide.

    The aim of Brady seems to be to say the EU "we won't agree to this WA but this is a WA we can agree to all you have to do is agree our changes". It might work but there's an assumption the EU is going to blink to avoid No Deal and there's little evidence of that at this time.

    Cooper/Boles seems to be about forcing May to extend A50 rather than leaving without a Deal on 29/3. Perhaps but the EU needs to back any extension and it shows little sign of doing so under these circumstances - I could imagine were the WA set to pass and a few extra days needed to tidy up the legislative process that would be granted.

    In effect, neither amendment is of much help - we are still back with either agreeing the already-rejected WA or leaving on 29/3 without a Deal and doing what can be done in the next 60 days to minimise or mitigate disruption.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited January 2019
    IanB2 said:

    Meet the man behind a third of what's on Wikipedia

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JhNczOuhxeg

    Tbf having "edited a third of the articles on WP", whilst impressive, is massively short of being "behind a third" of the content.
    Yes I know the title is clickbait.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    rpjs said:

    Scott_P said:
    The sad truth is that every possible outcome now will still be a win for Vladimir Vladimirovich.
    Not necessarily. The practical benefit to him of robust political debate taking place in another country is pretty tenuous, especially if it means we accelerate dealing with issues that would otherwise have festered.
  • Sean_F said:
    Tesco's have a big problem. Aldi and Lidl are killing them on price, and they are stuck with all these massive stores to hold the extensive range of SKUs, much of which now people are buying online e.g. electronics.
    Those sound like arguments for expanding rather than closing the fresh-food counters, to differentiate themselves more from the discounters and online resellers. But what do I know?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited January 2019
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited January 2019

    Sean_F said:
    Tesco's have a big problem. Aldi and Lidl are killing them on price, and they are stuck with all these massive stores to hold the extensive range of SKUs, much of which now people are buying online e.g. electronics.
    Those sound like arguments for expanding rather than closing the fresh-food counters, to differentiate themselves more from the discounters and online resellers. But what do I know?
    Well yes. It seems a bad move to me to try and turn yourself more and more into a bigger more expensive version of Aldi.

    The only thing I can think of is that the foot traffic just isn't there. Perhaps, those looking for deli services prefer Waitrose and the majority of Tesco's customers just don't want to choose their olives.

    I honestly think they are in a bit of a bind and don't really know what to do. They are getting squeezed from the bottom and the high end is just so so much better.

    Their rapid expansive in the 90s / 00s was based on the fact nobody could compete with them on price and while they had you in the store they could flog you all the other stuff. And their online retailer business to compete with Amazon was recently shut down, as it never seemed to take off.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    I think Brexit will happen before TMay goes.

    This is my view. If it does happen it will go down in the history books as the main achievement of the May ministry, but it will also probably be the biggest impact that Corbyn has had, or will have.

    Had Labour had a pro-EU leader over the last couple of months then I think Brexit would be dead.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    AndyJS said:
    The s*** just hit the fan.....
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Me, yes, although had Labour had a pro-EU leader during the referendum then it would've likely been won by Remain anyway.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,865
    Scott_P said:

    Tomorrow, at the start of the debate

    Which amendments are picked - that will be quite a moment.

    The Cooper one will probably pass and, if it does pass, will (in Steve Bray parlance) almost certainly storrrrrrrrp brexit. Or at least a hard one and at least for a while. It would tilt the balance heavily in favour of a sorffffft brexit, or remain.

    And yet this will come to pass ONLY if Bercow selects it, which he does not have to. What a position of power & responsibility for just one man. He's like Kim Jong-un, as I think has been pointed out before. Has the silly outfits too.

    How will he exercise his prerogative? It seems like he will go for the Cooper. Most expect him to. But what if he doesn't? I can easily imagine that he might wish to demonstrate that he is NOT biased to the remain side, as everyone keeps telling him that he is, and therefore that he will make a point of NOT picking this amendment.

    Like the coach who does not pick his son for the school football team, despite the lad being a proven goal machine in training.

    People can be strange like that. Why not Bercow?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,010
    Chris said:

    Going back to betting for a moment, I am still struggling to make sense of Betfair's implied probabilities.

    Deal not to pass Commons by 29 March: 65%
    No Deal on 29 March: 14%
    Referendum this year: 28%

    Apparently that leaves 23% covering revocation by 29 March or an extension without the deal having passed the Commons and without a referendum.

    It seems the betting markets are allowing for a substantial probability of the EU allowing an extension for no particular reason (or perhaps for a general election, but there's no Betfair market for a general election being called before 29 March). Do people think that's right?

    These probabilities have now changed to:
    Deal not to pass Commons by 29 March: 77%
    No Deal on 29 March: 14%
    Referendum this year: 27%

    So now 36% implied probability of an extension without a deal having passed the Commons and without a referendum.
  • kinabalu said:

    Scott_P said:

    Tomorrow, at the start of the debate

    Which amendments are picked - that will be quite a moment.

    The Cooper one will probably pass and, if it does pass, will (in Steve Bray parlance) almost certainly storrrrrrrrp brexit. Or at least a hard one and at least for a while. It would tilt the balance heavily in favour of a sorffffft brexit, or remain.

    And yet this will come to pass ONLY if Bercow selects it, which he does not have to. What a position of power & responsibility for just one man. He's like Kim Jong-un, as I think has been pointed out before. Has the silly outfits too.

    How will he exercise his prerogative? It seems like he will go for the Cooper. Most expect him to. But what if he doesn't? I can easily imagine that he might wish to demonstrate that he is NOT biased to the remain side, as everyone keeps telling him that he is, and therefore that he will make a point of NOT picking this amendment.

    Like the coach who does not pick his son for the school football team, despite the lad being a proven goal machine in training.

    People can be strange like that. Why not Bercow?
    Bercow needs to be seen to be fair tomorrow, anything else will create chaotic scenes among mps and even more embarrassment for our much suffering nation
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    AndyJS said:
    So the "downside" of Brexit will mean the Uk is eating more peas and fish and zero fried chicken ?

    JRM succeeding where Hugh Fearnley Wittingstall and Jamie Oliver have failed ?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_P said:

    Tomorrow, at the start of the debate

    Which amendments are picked - that will be quite a moment.

    The Cooper one will probably pass and, if it does pass, will (in Steve Bray parlance) almost certainly storrrrrrrrp brexit. Or at least a hard one and at least for a while. It would tilt the balance heavily in favour of a sorffffft brexit, or remain.

    And yet this will come to pass ONLY if Bercow selects it, which he does not have to. What a position of power & responsibility for just one man. He's like Kim Jong-un, as I think has been pointed out before. Has the silly outfits too.

    How will he exercise his prerogative? It seems like he will go for the Cooper. Most expect him to. But what if he doesn't? I can easily imagine that he might wish to demonstrate that he is NOT biased to the remain side, as everyone keeps telling him that he is, and therefore that he will make a point of NOT picking this amendment.

    Like the coach who does not pick his son for the school football team, despite the lad being a proven goal machine in training.

    People can be strange like that. Why not Bercow?
    Bercow needs to be seen to be fair tomorrow, anything else will create chaotic scenes among mps and even more embarrassment for our much suffering nation
    He didn't give a toss last time out..
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,776

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_P said:

    Tomorrow, at the start of the debate

    Which amendments are picked - that will be quite a moment.

    The Cooper one will probably pass and, if it does pass, will (in Steve Bray parlance) almost certainly storrrrrrrrp brexit. Or at least a hard one and at least for a while. It would tilt the balance heavily in favour of a sorffffft brexit, or remain.

    And yet this will come to pass ONLY if Bercow selects it, which he does not have to. What a position of power & responsibility for just one man. He's like Kim Jong-un, as I think has been pointed out before. Has the silly outfits too.

    How will he exercise his prerogative? It seems like he will go for the Cooper. Most expect him to. But what if he doesn't? I can easily imagine that he might wish to demonstrate that he is NOT biased to the remain side, as everyone keeps telling him that he is, and therefore that he will make a point of NOT picking this amendment.

    Like the coach who does not pick his son for the school football team, despite the lad being a proven goal machine in training.

    People can be strange like that. Why not Bercow?
    Bercow needs to be seen to be fair tomorrow, anything else will create chaotic scenes among mps and even more embarrassment for our much suffering nation
    Bercow will choose whichever amendments are most harmful to the government.
  • TGOHF said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_P said:

    Tomorrow, at the start of the debate

    Which amendments are picked - that will be quite a moment.

    The Cooper one will probably pass and, if it does pass, will (in Steve Bray parlance) almost certainly storrrrrrrrp brexit. Or at least a hard one and at least for a while. It would tilt the balance heavily in favour of a sorffffft brexit, or remain.

    And yet this will come to pass ONLY if Bercow selects it, which he does not have to. What a position of power & responsibility for just one man. He's like Kim Jong-un, as I think has been pointed out before. Has the silly outfits too.

    How will he exercise his prerogative? It seems like he will go for the Cooper. Most expect him to. But what if he doesn't? I can easily imagine that he might wish to demonstrate that he is NOT biased to the remain side, as everyone keeps telling him that he is, and therefore that he will make a point of NOT picking this amendment.

    Like the coach who does not pick his son for the school football team, despite the lad being a proven goal machine in training.

    People can be strange like that. Why not Bercow?
    Bercow needs to be seen to be fair tomorrow, anything else will create chaotic scenes among mps and even more embarrassment for our much suffering nation
    He didn't give a toss last time out..
    He may find himself losing control of the commons
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_P said:

    Tomorrow, at the start of the debate

    Which amendments are picked - that will be quite a moment.

    The Cooper one will probably pass and, if it does pass, will (in Steve Bray parlance) almost certainly storrrrrrrrp brexit. Or at least a hard one and at least for a while. It would tilt the balance heavily in favour of a sorffffft brexit, or remain.

    And yet this will come to pass ONLY if Bercow selects it, which he does not have to. What a position of power & responsibility for just one man. He's like Kim Jong-un, as I think has been pointed out before. Has the silly outfits too.

    How will he exercise his prerogative? It seems like he will go for the Cooper. Most expect him to. But what if he doesn't? I can easily imagine that he might wish to demonstrate that he is NOT biased to the remain side, as everyone keeps telling him that he is, and therefore that he will make a point of NOT picking this amendment.

    Like the coach who does not pick his son for the school football team, despite the lad being a proven goal machine in training.

    People can be strange like that. Why not Bercow?
    Bercow needs to be seen to be fair tomorrow, anything else will create chaotic scenes among mps and even more embarrassment for our much suffering nation
    He didn't give a toss last time out..
    He may find himself losing control of the commons
    Nah - he will just brazen it out.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. F, quite.

    Bercow doesn't care about being seen to be fair. I'd be staggered if the Cooper amendment weren't selected.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,097

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_P said:

    Tomorrow, at the start of the debate

    Which amendments are picked - that will be quite a moment.

    The Cooper one will probably pass and, if it does pass, will (in Steve Bray parlance) almost certainly storrrrrrrrp brexit. Or at least a hard one and at least for a while. It would tilt the balance heavily in favour of a sorffffft brexit, or remain.

    And yet this will come to pass ONLY if Bercow selects it, which he does not have to. What a position of power & responsibility for just one man. He's like Kim Jong-un, as I think has been pointed out before. Has the silly outfits too.

    How will he exercise his prerogative? It seems like he will go for the Cooper. Most expect him to. But what if he doesn't? I can easily imagine that he might wish to demonstrate that he is NOT biased to the remain side, as everyone keeps telling him that he is, and therefore that he will make a point of NOT picking this amendment.

    Like the coach who does not pick his son for the school football team, despite the lad being a proven goal machine in training.

    People can be strange like that. Why not Bercow?
    Bercow needs to be seen to be fair tomorrow, anything else will create chaotic scenes among mps and even more embarrassment for our much suffering nation
    There is obviously no bias in selecting an amendment with the breadth of support and credibility as Cooper's. It would be biased not to select it.
  • TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_P said:

    Tomorrow, at the start of the debate

    Which amendments are picked - that will be quite a moment.

    The Cooper one will probably pass and, if it does pass, will (in Steve Bray parlance) almost certainly storrrrrrrrp brexit. Or at least a hard one and at least for a while. It would tilt the balance heavily in favour of a sorffffft brexit, or remain.

    And yet this will come to pass ONLY if Bercow selects it, which he does not have to. What a position of power & responsibility for just one man. He's like Kim Jong-un, as I think has been pointed out before. Has the silly outfits too.

    How will he exercise his prerogative? It seems like he will go for the Cooper. Most expect him to. But what if he doesn't? I can easily imagine that he might wish to demonstrate that he is NOT biased to the remain side, as everyone keeps telling him that he is, and therefore that he will make a point of NOT picking this amendment.

    Like the coach who does not pick his son for the school football team, despite the lad being a proven goal machine in training.

    People can be strange like that. Why not Bercow?
    Bercow needs to be seen to be fair tomorrow, anything else will create chaotic scenes among mps and even more embarrassment for our much suffering nation
    He didn't give a toss last time out..
    He may find himself losing control of the commons
    Nah - he will just brazen it out.
    It it happens it will depend on the extent of his loss of control

    JRM just spoken on Sky after meeting TM seems reasonably on board with a legal codicil to the WDA

    Looks as if splits in the ERG are emerging
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_P said:

    Tomorrow, at the start of the debate

    Which amendments are picked - that will be quite a moment.

    The Cooper one will probably pass and, if it does pass, will (in Steve Bray parlance) almost certainly storrrrrrrrp brexit. Or at least a hard one and at least for a while. It would tilt the balance heavily in favour of a sorffffft brexit, or remain.

    And yet this will come to pass ONLY if Bercow selects it, which he does not have to. What a position of power & responsibility for just one man. He's like Kim Jong-un, as I think has been pointed out before. Has the silly outfits too.

    How will he exercise his prerogative? It seems like he will go for the Cooper. Most expect him to. But what if he doesn't? I can easily imagine that he might wish to demonstrate that he is NOT biased to the remain side, as everyone keeps telling him that he is, and therefore that he will make a point of NOT picking this amendment.

    Like the coach who does not pick his son for the school football team, despite the lad being a proven goal machine in training.

    People can be strange like that. Why not Bercow?
    Bercow needs to be seen to be fair tomorrow, anything else will create chaotic scenes among mps and even more embarrassment for our much suffering nation
    There is obviously no bias in selecting an amendment with the breadth of support and credibility as Cooper's. It would be biased not to select it.
    Essential it is selected - so the names of those supporting it can be recorded.
  • IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_P said:

    Tomorrow, at the start of the debate

    Which amendments are picked - that will be quite a moment.

    The Cooper one will probably pass and, if it does pass, will (in Steve Bray parlance) almost certainly storrrrrrrrp brexit. Or at least a hard one and at least for a while. It would tilt the balance heavily in favour of a sorffffft brexit, or remain.

    And yet this will come to pass ONLY if Bercow selects it, which he does not have to. What a position of power & responsibility for just one man. He's like Kim Jong-un, as I think has been pointed out before. Has the silly outfits too.

    How will he exercise his prerogative? It seems like he will go for the Cooper. Most expect him to. But what if he doesn't? I can easily imagine that he might wish to demonstrate that he is NOT biased to the remain side, as everyone keeps telling him that he is, and therefore that he will make a point of NOT picking this amendment.

    Like the coach who does not pick his son for the school football team, despite the lad being a proven goal machine in training.

    People can be strange like that. Why not Bercow?
    Bercow needs to be seen to be fair tomorrow, anything else will create chaotic scenes among mps and even more embarrassment for our much suffering nation
    There is obviously no bias in selecting an amendment with the breadth of support and credibility as Cooper's. It would be biased not to select it.
    I have no problem with Coopers being selected but the controversy would be if he did not accept Graham Brady's
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,097
    edited January 2019

    IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_P said:

    Tomorrow, at the start of the debate

    Which amendments are picked - that will be quite a moment.

    The Cooper one will probably pass and, if it does pass, will (in Steve Bray parlance) almost certainly storrrrrrrrp brexit. Or at least a hard one and at least for a while. It would tilt the balance heavily in favour of a sorffffft brexit, or remain.

    And yet this will come to pass ONLY if Bercow selects it, which he does not have to. What a position of power & responsibility for just one man. He's like Kim Jong-un, as I think has been pointed out before. Has the silly outfits too.

    How will he exercise his prerogative? It seems like he will go for the Cooper. Most expect him to. But what if he doesn't? I can easily imagine that he might wish to demonstrate that he is NOT biased to the remain side, as everyone keeps telling him that he is, and therefore that he will make a point of NOT picking this amendment.

    Like the coach who does not pick his son for the school football team, despite the lad being a proven goal machine in training.

    People can be strange like that. Why not Bercow?
    Bercow needs to be seen to be fair tomorrow, anything else will create chaotic scenes among mps and even more embarrassment for our much suffering nation
    There is obviously no bias in selecting an amendment with the breadth of support and credibility as Cooper's. It would be biased not to select it.
    I have no problem with Coopers being selected but the controversy would be if he did not accept Graham Brady's
    Assuming it has broad support at least within the Tory party, for sure.

    If it turns out the government isn't backing it and the ERG isn't backing it and neither are the opposition, he would be within his rights to drop it.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited January 2019


    Looks as if splits in the ERG are emerging


    Do splits really matter though? It needs to be almost all to pass, and there's near no chance of that.

    Much the same as it's been for a while: it's down to whether Labour will let a WA go through, or risk no-deal.
  • IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_P said:

    Tomorrow, at the start of the debate

    Which amendments are picked - that will be quite a moment.

    The Cooper one will probably pass and, if it does pass, will (in Steve Bray parlance) almost certainly storrrrrrrrp brexit. Or at least a hard one and at least for a while. It would tilt the balance heavily in favour of a sorffffft brexit, or remain.

    And yet this will come to pass ONLY if Bercow selects it, which he does not have to. What a position of power & responsibility for just one man. He's like Kim Jong-un, as I think has been pointed out before. Has the silly outfits too.

    How will he exercise his prerogative? It seems like he will go for the Cooper. Most expect him to. But what if he doesn't? I can easily imagine that he might wish to demonstrate that he is NOT biased to the remain side, as everyone keeps telling him that he is, and therefore that he will make a point of NOT picking this amendment.

    Like the coach who does not pick his son for the school football team, despite the lad being a proven goal machine in training.

    People can be strange like that. Why not Bercow?
    Bercow needs to be seen to be fair tomorrow, anything else will create chaotic scenes among mps and even more embarrassment for our much suffering nation
    There is obviously no bias in selecting an amendment with the breadth of support and credibility as Cooper's. It would be biased not to select it.
    I have no problem with Coopers being selected but the controversy would be if he did not accept Graham Brady's
    Assuming it has broad support at least within the Tory party, for sure.
    Brady's amendment would smoke out ERG
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    Sean_F said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_P said:

    Tomorrow, at the start of the debate

    Which amendments are picked - that will be quite a moment.

    The Cooper one will probably pass and, if it does pass, will (in Steve Bray parlance) almost certainly storrrrrrrrp brexit. Or at least a hard one and at least for a while. It would tilt the balance heavily in favour of a sorffffft brexit, or remain.

    And yet this will come to pass ONLY if Bercow selects it, which he does not have to. What a position of power & responsibility for just one man. He's like Kim Jong-un, as I think has been pointed out before. Has the silly outfits too.

    How will he exercise his prerogative? It seems like he will go for the Cooper. Most expect him to. But what if he doesn't? I can easily imagine that he might wish to demonstrate that he is NOT biased to the remain side, as everyone keeps telling him that he is, and therefore that he will make a point of NOT picking this amendment.

    Like the coach who does not pick his son for the school football team, despite the lad being a proven goal machine in training.

    People can be strange like that. Why not Bercow?
    Bercow needs to be seen to be fair tomorrow, anything else will create chaotic scenes among mps and even more embarrassment for our much suffering nation
    Bercow will choose whichever amendments are most harmful to the government.
    Nope - he will pick any amendment that has a fighting chance of achieving something. I suspect he's as fed up with this insanity as the rest of us are...
  • eek said:

    Sean_F said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_P said:

    Tomorrow, at the start of the debate

    Which amendments are picked - that will be quite a moment.

    The Cooper one will probably pass and, if it does pass, will (in Steve Bray parlance) almost certainly storrrrrrrrp brexit. Or at least a hard one and at least for a while. It would tilt the balance heavily in favour of a sorffffft brexit, or remain.

    And yet this will come to pass ONLY if Bercow selects it, which he does not have to. What a position of power & responsibility for just one man. He's like Kim Jong-un, as I think has been pointed out before. Has the silly outfits too.

    How will he exercise his prerogative? It seems like he will go for the Cooper. Most expect him to. But what if he doesn't? I can easily imagine that he might wish to demonstrate that he is NOT biased to the remain side, as everyone keeps telling him that he is, and therefore that he will make a point of NOT picking this amendment.

    Like the coach who does not pick his son for the school football team, despite the lad being a proven goal machine in training.

    People can be strange like that. Why not Bercow?
    Bercow needs to be seen to be fair tomorrow, anything else will create chaotic scenes among mps and even more embarrassment for our much suffering nation
    Bercow will choose whichever amendments are most harmful to the government.
    Nope - he will pick any amendment that has a fighting chance of achieving something. I suspect he's as fed up with this insanity as the rest of us are...
    And in truth none of the amendments make much more difference than can kicking, though not TM's doing this time
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited January 2019
    UAE's gender equality awards won entirely by men

    Authorities in the United Arab Emirates have been ridiculed after it emerged that all of the winners of an initiative designed to foster gender equality in the workplace were men.

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2019/jan/28/uae-mocked-for-gender-equality-awards-won-entirely-by-men
  • Scott_P said:
    Did Brand not see Barnier's recent statement that the EU was [at last] looking at technical solutions to the Irish border issue.

    Also there are rumours in Ireland that the EUs solution in the event of No Deal is to have no checks on the Ireland/NI border but instead have them on the Ireland/EU border eg at Calais Rotterdam etc.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Scott_P said:
    Did Brand not see Barnier's recent statement that the EU was [at last] looking at technical solutions to the Irish border issue.

    Also there are rumours in Ireland that the EUs solution in the event of No Deal is to have no checks on the Ireland/NI border but instead have them on the Ireland/EU border eg at Calais Rotterdam etc.
    lol, I thought a technical solution was impossible.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,780
    If the ERG does not vote for the Brady amendment, they will have truly sabotaged Brexit.
  • Manchester City have agreed a €13million fee [£11.29million] with Schalke for the Wales teenage international Rabbi Matondo, the latest young British footballer to seek his fortune in the Bundesliga having decided that his professional development is best served there.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2019/01/28/man-city-agree-1129m-fee-schalke-rabbi-matondo-another-british/

    Bundesliga is going to have more British players than the EPL at this rate.
  • Scott_P said:
    I would not expect anything else at this moment in the brexit process
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    Scott_P said:
    #nodeal

    It's not a scenario i want, but bring it on. If thats what they insist, thats what they insist.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    rcs1000 said:

    If the ERG does not vote for the Brady amendment, they will have truly sabotaged Brexit.

    An amendment which itself sabotages Brexit?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,780

    Scott_P said:
    Did Brand not see Barnier's recent statement that the EU was [at last] looking at technical solutions to the Irish border issue.

    Also there are rumours in Ireland that the EUs solution in the event of No Deal is to have no checks on the Ireland/NI border but instead have them on the Ireland/EU border eg at Calais Rotterdam etc.
    With all due respect, David, the second option will not happen.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,010
    rcs1000 said:

    If the ERG does not vote for the Brady amendment, they will have truly sabotaged Brexit.

    I still don't really see the route away from Brexit if the amendment doesn't pass.

    Revocation? Referendum? Renegotiation?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    rcs1000 said:

    If the ERG does not vote for the Brady amendment, they will have truly sabotaged Brexit.

    I think a bit of light crushing is in order.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Scott_P said:
    Isn't this also the issue with the Graham Brady Old Lady Amendment? I'm not fully up to speed, but it seems that the idea is to vote for something that is not within the scope of negotiation.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
  • I think Brexit will happen before TMay goes.

    This is my view. If it does happen it will go down in the history books as the main achievement of the May ministry, but it will also probably be the biggest impact that Corbyn has had, or will have.

    Had Labour had a pro-EU leader over the last couple of months then I think Brexit would be dead.
    Labour has not voted in favour of Brexit over the last few months so I don't see what difference Labour having a Pro EU leader would have made.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    TGOHF said:

    IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_P said:

    Tomorrow, at the start of the debate

    Which amendments are picked - that will be quite a moment.

    The Cooper one will probably pass and, if it does pass, will (in Steve Bray parlance) almost certainly storrrrrrrrp brexit. Or at least a hard one and at least for a while. It would tilt the balance heavily in favour of a sorffffft brexit, or remain.

    And yet this will come to pass ONLY if Bercow selects it, which he does not have to. What a position of power & responsibility for just one man. He's like Kim Jong-un, as I think has been pointed out before. Has the silly outfits too.

    How will he exercise his prerogative? It seems like he will go for the Cooper. Most expect him to. But what if he doesn't? I can easily imagine that he might wish to demonstrate that he is NOT biased to the remain side, as everyone keeps telling him that he is, and therefore that he will make a point of NOT picking this amendment.

    Like the coach who does not pick his son for the school football team, despite the lad being a proven goal machine in training.

    People can be strange like that. Why not Bercow?
    Bercow needs to be seen to be fair tomorrow, anything else will create chaotic scenes among mps and even more embarrassment for our much suffering nation
    There is obviously no bias in selecting an amendment with the breadth of support and credibility as Cooper's. It would be biased not to select it.
    Essential it is selected - so the names of those supporting it can be recorded.
    The pitchforks at the ready eh?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Scott_P said:
    They need not worry. I’m sure the telecom network will come crashing down in the event of no deal.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    Scott_P said:
    'looking like'?

    they're clearly already there.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,724
    Scott_P said:
    What's Scargill doing now. Pretty sure he's not dead.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited January 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Did Brand not see Barnier's recent statement that the EU was [at last] looking at technical solutions to the Irish border issue.

    Also there are rumours in Ireland that the EUs solution in the event of No Deal is to have no checks on the Ireland/NI border but instead have them on the Ireland/EU border eg at Calais Rotterdam etc.
    With all due respect, David, the second option will not happen.
    In the event of No Deal the Eu has been made aware that neither Ireland nor the UK are prepared to instal infrastructure on the Ireland/NI border.

    Consequently their fallback position is to check goods coming into the EU from the UK and Ireland in the same way - both for tariffs and compliance with standards.

    The EU are not keen to publicise their position because it undermines their negotiating position of course, which is to weaponise the Irish border issue.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,776
  • Scott_P said:
    What's Scargill doing now. Pretty sure he's not dead.
    Struggling.
  • RobD said:
    Because diamonds are really really hard presumably.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Scott_P said:
    What's Scargill doing now. Pretty sure he's not dead.
    Struggling.
    Wikipedia says he’s a bit of a recluse. Which is fair enough.
  • It goes without saying that these people do not know what they are talking about.

    https://twitter.com/TomBoadle/status/1089879657871278082
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited January 2019
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:
    What's Scargill doing now. Pretty sure he's not dead.
    Struggling.
    Wikipedia says he’s a bit of a recluse. Which is fair enough.
    Still living in that flat he bought via right to buy that he so hated? Or not, even though he should be...

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3804663/Arthur-Scargill-hypocrite-Militant-leader-miners-shamelessly-uses-Thatcher-s-right-buy-law-snap-2million-flat-half-price.html
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Scott_P said:
    Seems like a bit of a non-issue, unless you think there is going to be no extradition treaty between the EU and UK in the future?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Seems like a bit of a non-issue, unless you think there is going to be no extradition treaty between the EU and UK in the future?
    Can't lock people up in the vague hope that "something will be sorted out in the future".
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,039
    rcs1000 said:

    If the ERG does not vote for the Brady amendment, they will have truly sabotaged Brexit.

    Do you think they care?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,724

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:
    What's Scargill doing now. Pretty sure he's not dead.
    Struggling.
    Wikipedia says he’s a bit of a recluse. Which is fair enough.
    Still living in that flat he bought via right to buy that he so hated? Or not, even though he should be...

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3804663/Arthur-Scargill-hypocrite-Militant-leader-miners-shamelessly-uses-Thatcher-s-right-buy-law-snap-2million-flat-half-price.html
    He's on his own now, isn't he. Bit sad, on his own at 81; no wonder he's a recluse. Depressed too, I would think. Probably clinically as well. Sad end!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    rcs1000 said:

    If the ERG does not vote for the Brady amendment, they will have truly sabotaged Brexit.

    Do you think they care?
    It seems your position is closer to Gina Miller's than to Jacob Rees-Mogg's.

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1089819354290704385
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,039
    Someone on here said he had multiple personalities - that there was no one Andrew Lilico - and he rants passionately through all of them.

    I think that's right.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    rcs1000 said:

    If the ERG does not vote for the Brady amendment, they will have truly sabotaged Brexit.

    Do you think they care?
    It seems your position is closer to Gina Miller's than to Jacob Rees-Mogg's.

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1089819354290704385
    That deal is no longer available.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    When will May get it that is she that has to compromise? Stop the chicanery,spin and tactics to force the deal and start work on a genuine plan B.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,039
    Sean_F said:
    Tesco do fresh food?
  • Jonathan said:

    When will May get it that is she that has to compromise? Stop the chicanery,spin and tactics to force the deal and start work on a genuine plan B.

    Any ideas on anything that can pass the HOC
  • Jonathan said:

    When will May get it that is she that has to compromise? Stop the chicanery,spin and tactics to force the deal and start work on a genuine plan B.

    Compromise with who? There is no alternative to the Withdrawal Agreement.
This discussion has been closed.