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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ahead of this afternoon’s May-Corbyn meeting the two leaders get warmed up with a spiky PMQs exchange

Jeremy Corbyn: "None of that was very clear to me, I don't know about anybody else"

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dots

Seventh. Like the governors

AlastairMeeks

Maybe it will be like a Quaker prayer meeting, where each will sit in silence waiting to be moved by the Holy spirit.

gypsumfantastic

In the kingdom of No Deal Brexitania, the spiky unicorn hunter is king.

dots

My first 1st? 🙃🙃🙃

But Was I supposed to read the threadhead before posting? Is that the meme rule? 😗

I have now. Why call it a historic meeting when the norm is previous less sociopathic party leaders used to meet more often and get on quite well?

My historic first indicates i really should go and get a life now? 🙃

weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee 🙃

OldKingCole

It's frightening; the country is on the verge of the greatest change it's ever made and the main issue is how to maintain the unity of the governing party. No doubt Corbyn could have been more forthcoming, but the PM must have some concept of what the other European leaders think. However, it doesn't appear that she does. Or cares.

El_Capitano

AlastairMeeks said:

Maybe it will be like a Quaker prayer meeting, where each will sit in silence waiting to be moved by the Holy spirit.

I know quite a few Quakers and they are all, without exception, much more enlightened than May or Corbyn.

felix

One can only assume that JC will be there .... but definitely not involved.

AlastairMeeks

El_Capitano said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Maybe it will be like a Quaker prayer meeting, where each will sit in silence waiting to be moved by the Holy spirit.

I know quite a few Quakers and they are all, without exception, much more enlightened than May or Corbyn.

We shall just have to hope that they are moved by the Holy spirit then.

felix

OldKingCole said:

It's frightening; the country is on the verge of the greatest change it's ever made and the main issue is how to maintain the unity of the governing party. No doubt Corbyn could have been more forthcoming, but the PM must have some concept of what the other European leaders think. However, it doesn't appear that she does. Or cares.

Enough already with the party v country nonsense. All politiciamns and all parites are convinced that their views coincide with the national interest. We need the level of debate to rise above this - otherwise you are simply point scoring on party political grounds! The aim of the exercise is to achieve a deal which can command a majority in the house, as well as the acceptance of the EU 27, while respecting the vote of the people. Clearly not easy and the probability of success is not high. We will end up no doubt with a 'least worst' option. That is pretty well the nature of politics in my, admittedly, too long experience.

Cyclefree

OldKingCole said:

It's frightening; the country is on the verge of the greatest change it's ever made and the main issue is how to maintain the unity of the governing party. No doubt Corbyn could have been more forthcoming, but the PM must have some concept of what the other European leaders think. However, it doesn't appear that she does. Or cares.

We are behaving like the perfidious Albion some foreigners have always claimed we are. This will have real live consequences for Britain. We are making it very hard for other countries to take us seriously.

And last night’s delusional Parliamentary shenanigans have not helped.

This is not a game. Even if people did not like the decision to leave the EU, we could have earned some credit in the manner of our leaving. We are doing the complete opposite. It does us no credit at all. The fact that the reaction of some is to abuse those foreign politicians who point this out is not an example of some bulldog spirit but of someone who has been on the spirits, meths probably, to judge by the incoherent and delusional ramblings of the British politicians interviewed today.

Richard_Nabavi

A key thing to watch is who Corbyn takes with him to the meeting. Keir Starmer, or one of the inner Corbynite circle? If the latter, it will be clear that he has no intention whatsoever of being constructive.

OldKingCole

felix said:

OldKingCole said:

It's frightening; the country is on the verge of the greatest change it's ever made and the main issue is how to maintain the unity of the governing party. No doubt Corbyn could have been more forthcoming, but the PM must have some concept of what the other European leaders think. However, it doesn't appear that she does. Or cares.

Enough already with the party v country nonsense. All politiciamns and all parites are convinced that their views coincide with the national interest. We need the level of debate to rise above this - otherwise you are simply point scoring on party political grounds! The aim of the exercise is to achieve a deal which can command a majority in the house, as well as the acceptance of the EU 27, while respecting the vote of the people. Clearly not easy and the probability of success is not high. We will end up no doubt with a 'least worst' option. That is pretty well the nature of politics in my, admittedly, too long experience.

'We need the level of debate to rise above this'

My point exactly.

felix

Richard_Nabavi said:

A key thing to watch is who Corbyn takes with him to the meeting. Keir Starmer, or one of the inner Corbynite circle? If the latter, it will be clear that he has no intention whatsoever of being constructive.

+1

HYUFD

In a sense Corbyn is now probably closest to the median point on Brexit, permanent Customs Union has got more MPs voting for it than May's Deal, EEA or extending Article 50 enabling EUref2 and a majority of MPs last night voted against No Deal.

gypsumfantastic

HYUFD said:

In a sense Corbyn is now probably closest to the median point on Brexit, permanent Customs Union has got more MPs voting for it than May's Deal, EEA or extending Article 50 enabling EUref2 and a majority of MPs last night voted against No Deal.

It is, however, completely stupid because it directly violates everything May wanted in her Lancaster House speech, is anathema to most Tories because it's literally the opposite of what they still want and were promised, and yet it doesn't solve the backstop issue.

Other than that though, it's a perfect compromise.

gypsumfantastic

Richard_Nabavi said:

A key thing to watch is who Corbyn takes with him to the meeting. Keir Starmer, or one of the inner Corbynite circle? If the latter, it will be clear that he has no intention whatsoever of being constructive.

Forcing us to the cliff edge and the Tories into a position where they finally split *is* being constructive.

Constructiveness takes many forms.

SandyRentool

Richard_Nabavi said:

A key thing to watch is who Corbyn takes with him to the meeting. Keir Starmer, or one of the inner Corbynite circle? If the latter, it will be clear that he has no intention whatsoever of being constructive.

I was rather hoping that it would be Starmer taking Corbyn along just for appearances sake.

Freggles

Richard_Nabavi said:

A key thing to watch is who Corbyn takes with him to the meeting. Keir Starmer, or one of the inner Corbynite circle? If the latter, it will be clear that he has no intention whatsoever of being constructive.

Barry Gardiner

Anorak

SandyRentool said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

A key thing to watch is who Corbyn takes with him to the meeting. Keir Starmer, or one of the inner Corbynite circle? If the latter, it will be clear that he has no intention whatsoever of being constructive.

I was rather hoping that it would be Starmer taking Corbyn along just for appearances sake.

Corbyn and Gardiner. Nailed on.

SandyRentool

HYUFD said:

In a sense Corbyn is now probably closest to the median point on Brexit, permanent Customs Union has got more MPs voting for it than May's Deal, EEA or extending Article 50 enabling EUref2 and a majority of MPs last night voted against No Deal.

Like this broken record keeps repeating, the only way for May to get a deal through Parliament is to move towards Labour's position. Today, there is a slim chance that this might finally be happening.

felix

OldKingCole said:

felix said:

OldKingCole said:

It's frightening; the country is on the verge of the greatest change it's ever made and the main issue is how to maintain the unity of the governing party. No doubt Corbyn could have been more forthcoming, but the PM must have some concept of what the other European leaders think. However, it doesn't appear that she does. Or cares.

Enough already with the party v country nonsense. All politiciamns and all parites are convinced that their views coincide with the national interest. We need the level of debate to rise above this - otherwise you are simply point scoring on party political grounds! The aim of the exercise is to achieve a deal which can command a majority in the house, as well as the acceptance of the EU 27, while respecting the vote of the people. Clearly not easy and the probability of success is not high. We will end up no doubt with a 'least worst' option. That is pretty well the nature of politics in my, admittedly, too long experience.

'We need the level of debate to rise above this'

My point exactly.

Apologies for all my typos which I've just seen. But you miss my main point which is that politicians mostly genuinely and passionately believe that they are right and their policies are for the good of the country. I'm convinced that this is the case with T. May although of course I accept she has made errors and has faults. However, the main reason she has failed, lies with the task imposed by the referendum resultrather than her approach. I'm unconvinced that anyone else would have done a much better job. There is no easy answer or magic formula to reconcile the nature of the pulic divisions we have. We see how awful it all is on here daily. The eventual 'deal' will be pretty crap and we will all eventually move on. That is about the sum of it I fear.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1090598941937360898

OldKingCole

SandyRentool said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

A key thing to watch is who Corbyn takes with him to the meeting. Keir Starmer, or one of the inner Corbynite circle? If the latter, it will be clear that he has no intention whatsoever of being constructive.

I was rather hoping that it would be Starmer taking Corbyn along just for appearances sake.

Like. Though that would be too sensible.

HYUFD

gypsumfantastic said:

HYUFD said:

In a sense Corbyn is now probably closest to the median point on Brexit, permanent Customs Union has got more MPs voting for it than May's Deal, EEA or extending Article 50 enabling EUref2 and a majority of MPs last night voted against No Deal.

It is, however, completely stupid because it directly violates everything May wanted in her Lancaster House speech, is anathema to most Tories because it's literally the opposite of what they still want and were promised, and yet it doesn't solve the backstop issue.

Other than that though, it's a perfect compromise.

True but the 17 Tory rebels who backed the Spelman amendment last night would back permanent Customs Union over No Deal, as would some Ministers like Margot James who has backed permanent Customs Union as a last resort if May's Deal fails again

AlastairMeeks

Cyclefree said:

OldKingCole said:

It's frightening; the country is on the verge of the greatest change it's ever made and the main issue is how to maintain the unity of the governing party. No doubt Corbyn could have been more forthcoming, but the PM must have some concept of what the other European leaders think. However, it doesn't appear that she does. Or cares.

We are behaving like the perfidious Albion some foreigners have always claimed we are. This will have real live consequences for Britain. We are making it very hard for other countries to take us seriously.

And last night’s delusional Parliamentary shenanigans have not helped.

This is not a game. Even if people did not like the decision to leave the EU, we could have earned some credit in the manner of our leaving. We are doing the complete opposite. It does us no credit at all. The fact that the reaction of some is to abuse those foreign politicians who point this out is not an example of some bulldog spirit but of someone who has been on the spirits, meths probably, to judge by the incoherent and delusional ramblings of the British politicians interviewed today.

This is all a consequence of the way in which the Leave campaign was fought in the referendum. Having been entirely negative, there is nothing uniting Leavers. So the inevitable consequence has been to retreat into negativity, never being prepared to compromise because Leavers do not know what their real priorities are.

Beverley_C

OldKingCole said:

It's frightening; the country is on the verge of the greatest change it's ever made and the main issue is how to maintain the unity of the governing party. No doubt Corbyn could have been more forthcoming, but the PM must have some concept of what the other European leaders think. However, it doesn't appear that she does. Or cares.

I had thought that the Maybot would eventually realise that the Good of the Country outweighs the Good of the Party (or the one), but it appears not.

I do wonder if, when JRM writes his memoirs, he will reveal that the Maybot was a secret member of the ERG all along...

williamglenn

https://twitter.com/yougov/status/1090598170101465089?s=21

HYUFD

SandyRentool said:

HYUFD said:

In a sense Corbyn is now probably closest to the median point on Brexit, permanent Customs Union has got more MPs voting for it than May's Deal, EEA or extending Article 50 enabling EUref2 and a majority of MPs last night voted against No Deal.

Like this broken record keeps repeating, the only way for May to get a deal through Parliament is to move towards Labour's position. Today, there is a slim chance that this might finally be happening.

Yes unfortunately too many Labour MPs will put party politics over getting the Deal through, less than 5 Labour MPs backed May's Deal but they will back Labour's policy of permanent Customs Union as I think will the 17 Tory MPs who voted to rule out No Deal last night, giving permanent Customs Union a small majority

Nigelb

Anorak said:

SandyRentool said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

A key thing to watch is who Corbyn takes with him to the meeting. Keir Starmer, or one of the inner Corbynite circle? If the latter, it will be clear that he has no intention whatsoever of being constructive.

I was rather hoping that it would be Starmer taking Corbyn along just for appearances sake.

Corbyn and Gardiner. Nailed on.

If May takes Barclay along, it will be the Quakers, plus Dumb and Dumber.

Beverley_C

felix said:

OldKingCole said:

It's frightening; the country is on the verge of the greatest change it's ever made and the main issue is how to maintain the unity of the governing party. No doubt Corbyn could have been more forthcoming, but the PM must have some concept of what the other European leaders think. However, it doesn't appear that she does. Or cares.

Enough already with the party v country nonsense.

Why? It appears to be true of the Tories and Momentum. Should we ignore that truth when it appears to to be the driving force behind all the decisions we are seeing and the strategies that are adopted? None of this makes sense unless it is viewed through the lens of party loyalty.

felix said:

The aim of the exercise is to achieve a deal which can command a majority in the house, as well as the acceptance of the EU 27, while respecting the vote of the people.

Which the current behaviour is clearly impeding. We lack what we need - a govt of National Unity.

Beverley_C

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/yougov/status/1090598170101465089?s=21

I do not think that the EU should postpone the date either. Far better to get this over with shortly.

stodge

Cyclefree said:

We are behaving like the perfidious Albion some foreigners have always claimed we are. This will have real live consequences for Britain. We are making it very hard for other countries to take us seriously.

And last night’s delusional Parliamentary shenanigans have not helped.

This is not a game. Even if people did not like the decision to leave the EU, we could have earned some credit in the manner of our leaving. We are doing the complete opposite. It does us no credit at all. The fact that the reaction of some is to abuse those foreign politicians who point this out is not an example of some bulldog spirit but of someone who has been on the spirits, meths probably, to judge by the incoherent and delusional ramblings of the British politicians interviewed today.

Unfortunately there are votes and plenty of them in being seen to be "tough" with Europe and the EU. Cultural and historical stereotypes get wheeled out at times like this not to mention the gratuitous personal insults heaped on Sabine Weygand by at least one member of this forum.

The Conservative Party has clearly decided being anti-European in extremis is the only chance it has to preserve its voting coalition. It will take us to No Deal and blame the EU for any and all disruption that follows.

The apologists and sycophants for May both in the media (the Mail front page today is truly stomach churning) and on this forum would have us believe the Prime Minister won some great victory yesterday. Far from it, by passing the Brady amendment, her party has shown they love unicorns as much as the Corbyn fantasists. The belief is if we shout loud enough, the EU will cave in and give us everything we want.

Simple question, why should they? Second question, why would they?

The nub of this is the tale of two Unions and the fact neither understands how the other operates and both have a romanticised view of how they themselves operate.

Alanbrooke

Coveney sounding increasingly desperate on Sky

felix

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/yougov/status/1090598170101465089?s=21

Interesting to see how out of step France and Germany are compared to the others.

kinabalu

Some words of wisdom for Jeremy. Let it be. Do NOT get sucked in. Brexit is not your problem.

felix

Beverley_C said:

OldKingCole said:

It's frightening; the country is on the verge of the greatest change it's ever made and the main issue is how to maintain the unity of the governing party. No doubt Corbyn could have been more forthcoming, but the PM must have some concept of what the other European leaders think. However, it doesn't appear that she does. Or cares.

I had thought that the Maybot would eventually realise that the Good of the Country outweighs the Good of the Party (or the one), but it appears not.

I do wonder if, when JRM writes his memoirs, he will reveal that the Maybot was a secret member of the ERG all along...

Yawn. On a related issue how wise are the Irish government to be 'weaponising' the border issue, almost literally.

OldKingCole

felix said:

OldKingCole said:

felix said:

OldKingCole said:

It's frightening; the country is on the verge of the greatest change it's ever made and the main issue is how to maintain the unity of the governing party. No doubt Corbyn could have been more forthcoming, but the PM must have some concept of what the other European leaders think. However, it doesn't appear that she does. Or cares.

Enough already with the party v country nonsense. All politiciamns and all parites are convinced that their views coincide with the national interest. We need the level of debate to rise above this - otherwise you are simply point scoring on party political grounds! The aim of the exercise is to achieve a deal which can command a majority in the house, as well as the acceptance of the EU 27, while respecting the vote of the people. Clearly not easy and the probability of success is not high. We will end up no doubt with a 'least worst' option. That is pretty well the nature of politics in my, admittedly, too long experience.

'We need the level of debate to rise above this'

My point exactly.

Apologies for all my typos which I've just seen. But you miss my main point which is that politicians mostly genuinely and passionately believe that they are right and their policies are for the good of the country. I'm convinced that this is the case with T. May although of course I accept she has made errors and has faults. However, the main reason she has failed, lies with the task imposed by the referendum resultrather than her approach. I'm unconvinced that anyone else would have done a much better job. There is no easy answer or magic formula to reconcile the nature of the pulic divisions we have. We see how awful it all is on here daily. The eventual 'deal' will be pretty crap and we will all eventually move on. That is about the sum of it I fear.

Yup, have typo trouble myself. Either FFS or predictive text jumping to erroneous conclusions!

I agree with you that most politicians equate their country's good with their party's good.... and why else, as you say, would they be party politicians.
May, though, first of all urged people to vote remain, although BBC2 the other night suggested that that represented a switch, then took up the job of Tory Leader/PM as last one standing and said that she'd implement the result. Instead of being flexible, and seeking some sort of cross party consensus though, she refused to involve anyone else and publicly laid down red lines.

It's easy to be wise after the event of course, but it does seem as all the way through she's been more concerned to keep her awkward squad on side than anything else.

Anorak

Nigelb said:

Anorak said:

SandyRentool said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

A key thing to watch is who Corbyn takes with him to the meeting. Keir Starmer, or one of the inner Corbynite circle? If the latter, it will be clear that he has no intention whatsoever of being constructive.

I was rather hoping that it would be Starmer taking Corbyn along just for appearances sake.

Corbyn and Gardiner. Nailed on.

If May takes Barclay along, it will be the Quakers, plus Dumb and Dumber.

Speaking of which, here's Theresa May explaining the chances of a cabinet position to Mark Francois.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KX5jNnDMfxA

Richard_Nabavi

stodge said:

[snip]
Far from it, by passing the Brady amendment, her party has shown they love unicorns as much as the Corbyn fantasists. The belief is if we shout loud enough, the EU will cave in and give us everything we want.

Simple question, why should they? Second question, why would they?
[snip]

Why should they? Because of the blindingly obvious point that if they don't, they face the near-certainty of a hard border in 58 days, which is an odd way of proceeding if your over-riding aim is to avoid the off-chance of a hard border in several years' time. And that's without even mentioning the economic hit, especially to Ireland.

I agree that 'should' and 'will' are different verbs, of course.

felix

Beverley_C said:

felix said:

OldKingCole said:

It's frightening; the country is on the verge of the greatest change it's ever made and the main issue is how to maintain the unity of the governing party. No doubt Corbyn could have been more forthcoming, but the PM must have some concept of what the other European leaders think. However, it doesn't appear that she does. Or cares.

Enough already with the party v country nonsense.

Why? It appears to be true of the Tories and Momentum. Should we ignore that truth when it appears to to be the driving force behind all the decisions we are seeing and the strategies that are adopted? None of this makes sense unless it is viewed through the lens of party loyalty.

felix said:

The aim of the exercise is to achieve a deal which can command a majority in the house, as well as the acceptance of the EU 27, while respecting the vote of the people.

Which the current behaviour is clearly impeding. We lack what we need - a govt of National Unity.

I take it you couldn't be bothered to read beyond the first line. Of course your own position is completely neutral with the interests of all citizens taken equally to heart, regardless of their views and beliefs.

felix

Beverley_C said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/yougov/status/1090598170101465089?s=21

I do not think that the EU should postpone the date either. Far better to get this over with shortly.

So the views of other EU countries should be ignored in favour of the French and Germans, which by chance coincide with your own views.

SouthamObserver

Richard_Nabavi said:

A key thing to watch is who Corbyn takes with him to the meeting. Keir Starmer, or one of the inner Corbynite circle? If the latter, it will be clear that he has no intention whatsoever of being constructive.

I’d be genuinely surprised if it was Starmer.

And I doubt that either May or Corbyn will be constructive. It’s not in their political or personal DNA.

SouthamObserver

Quite ...

https://twitter.com/julieowenmoylan/status/1090601439951495168?s=21

RobD

SouthamObserver said:

Quite ...

https://twitter.com/julieowenmoylan/status/1090601439951495168?s=21

How will it have broken the GFA?

El_Capitano

Marvellous. I might adopt this phrase.

"vouloir le beurre, l'argent du beurre, et le cul de la crémière"

https://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/1090603836425809926

Richard_Nabavi

SouthamObserver said:

Quite ...

https://twitter.com/julieowenmoylan/status/1090601439951495168?s=21

It's OK, the Brexiteers have conclusively shown that there is absolutely no advantage in having free trade deals with key trading partners.

felix

OldKingCole said:

felix said:

OldKingCole said:

felix said:

OldKingCole said:

It's frightening; the country is on the verge of ts.

Enough already with the party v country nonsense. All politiciamns and all parites are convinced that their views coincide with the national interest. We need the level of debate to rise above this - otherwise you are simply point scoring on party political grounds! The aim of the exercise is to achieve a deal which can command a majority in the house, as well as the acceptance of the EU 27, while respecting the vote of the people. Clearly not easy and the probability of success is not high. We will end up no doubt with a 'least worst' option. That is pretty well the nature of politics in my, admittedly, too long experience.

'We need the level of debate to rise above this'

My point exactly.

Apologies for all my typos which I've just seen. But you miss my main point which is that politicians mostly genuinely and passionately believe that they are right and their policies are for the good of the country. I'm convinced that this is the case with T. May although of course I accept she has made errors and has faults. However, the main reason she has failed, lies with the task imposed by the referendum resultrather than her approach. I'm unconvinced that anyone else would have done a much better job. There is no easy answer or magic formula to reconcile the nature of the pulic divisions we have. We see how awful it all is on here daily. The eventual 'deal' will be pretty crap and we will all eventually move on. That is about the sum of it I fear.

Yup, have typo trouble myself. Either FFS or predictive text jumping to erroneous conclusions!

I agree with you that most politicians equate their country's good with their party's good.... and why else, as you say, would they be party politicians.
May, though, first of all urged people to vote remain, although BBC2 the other night suggested that that represented a switch, then took up the job of Tory Leader/PM as last one standing and said that she'd implement the result. Instead of being flexible, and seeking some sort of cross party consensus though, she refused to involve anyone else and publicly laid down red lines.

It's easy to be wise after the event of course, but it does seem as all the way through she's been more concerned to keep her awkward squad on side than anything else.

She has acted however imperfectly, as most other party leaders would have done. As I say, the problem is 90% the brief and 10% everything else. Brexit is the ultimate circle that is near impossible to square.

OblitusSumMe

AlastairMeeks said:

Maybe it will be like a Quaker prayer meeting, where each will sit in silence waiting to be moved by the Holy spirit.

My Grandad was a Quaker and he saw the silence as an opportunity for quiet reflection, rather than waiting for a divine message.

My Aunt is a Quaker and she takes quite seriously the Quaker instruction to tell only the truth, which makes her quite blunt and direct. This can take some getting used to compared to the traditional English norm of not saying what one means, or avoiding subjects entirely. It would be a good start for May and Corbyn.

Philip_Thompson

Richard_Nabavi said:

stodge said:

[snip]
Far from it, by passing the Brady amendment, her party has shown they love unicorns as much as the Corbyn fantasists. The belief is if we shout loud enough, the EU will cave in and give us everything we want.

Simple question, why should they? Second question, why would they?
[snip]

Why should they? Because of the blindingly obvious point that if they don't, they face the near-certainty of a hard border in 58 days, which is an odd way of proceeding if your over-riding aim is to avoid the off-chance of a hard border in several years' time. And that's without even mentioning the economic hit, especially to Ireland.

I agree that 'should' and 'will' are different verbs, of course.

Indeed they are and it is blindingly obvious that they should to every Brexiteer. I see today that May has refused to replace Robbins as negotiator. That I think is a terrible mistake as he isn't trusted and for good reason.

If in 2 weeks Robbins comes back and says he couldn't negotiate any changes despite you, me and every Brexiteer MP knowing they should agree to one then there is no reason for them to back the original deal. The negotiator should be someone trusted to negotiate in good faith by the ERG and DUP.

SouthamObserver

I’m surprised the fact that May was told by the EU that it would not reopen the withdrawal agreement before she addressed the Commons yesterday has not received more attention.

Richard_Nabavi

Philip_Thompson said:

Indeed they are and it is blindingly obvious that they should to every Brexiteer. I see today that May has refused to replace Robbins as negotiator. That I think is a terrible mistake as he isn't trusted and for good reason.

If in 2 weeks Robbins comes back and says he couldn't negotiate any changes despite you, me and every Brexiteer MP knowing they should agree to one then there is no reason for them to back the original deal. The negotiator should be someone trusted to negotiate in good faith by the ERG and DUP.

It would make absolutely no difference. The idea that the UK's negotiation has been screwed up because of Olly Robbins or anyone else is for the birds. The negotiation has actually been quite good - the change they got to the EU's original backstop was a remarkable achievement from a weak negotiating position.

RobD

SouthamObserver said:

I’m surprised the fact that May was told by the EU that it would not reopen the withdrawal agreement before she addressed the Commons yesterday has not received more attention.

I thought it received plenty of attention on here yesterday.

Anorak

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

Quite ...

https://twitter.com/julieowenmoylan/status/1090601439951495168?s=21

How will it have broken the GFA?

It will be portrayed and perceived as having broken the GFA. The fact that the letter of the agreement may arguably not have been broken - and we can agree to disagree on that point - is neither here nor there to the influential Irish-American lobby.

It will be the UK's fault that Ireland is in a bad position. The End.

stodge

Richard_Nabavi said:

Why should they? Because of the blindingly obvious point that if they don't, they face the near-certainty of a hard border in 58 days, which is an odd way of proceeding if your over-riding aim is to avoid the off-chance of a hard border in several years' time. And that's without even mentioning the economic hit, especially to Ireland.

I agree that 'should' and 'will' are different verbs, of course.

I find such language reminiscent of the days of the Cold War and the notion of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD). The notion "they" must back down because of the damage MAD will cause was a notion prevalent in the Cold War. The only problem was the other side had exactly the same mindset.

Perhaps, as became the notion in the early Reagan years, we believe we can "win" a limited period of No Deal, the EU will suffer much more and they will yield.

Maybe but the EU might take the view we'll suffer more and we'll crack first.

BannedInParis

"I find such language reminiscent of the days of the Cold War and the notion of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD). The notion "they" must back down because of the damage MAD will cause was a notion prevalent in the Cold War. The only problem was the other side had exactly the same mindset."

... and the result was ... ?

tpfkar

Another Brexit morning after the night before. At least Corbyn will make it to no. 10 today, probably for the only time.

I wonder if an enterprising bookie might put a market up for how long the UK will tolerate a no deal scenario. I reckon after 3 weeks we'll be hungry, stuck (although with Chris Grayling in charge that may not be all due to the failed Brexit), sick, short on power and very very angry.

Surely, just like the US shutdown the pain will accumulate beyond breaking point? I just hope someone in Brussels has a 'please sign here' piece of paper for an emergency membership reprieve for the UK, although I dread to think what the Ts and Cs would be.

RobD

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Indeed they are and it is blindingly obvious that they should to every Brexiteer. I see today that May has refused to replace Robbins as negotiator. That I think is a terrible mistake as he isn't trusted and for good reason.

If in 2 weeks Robbins comes back and says he couldn't negotiate any changes despite you, me and every Brexiteer MP knowing they should agree to one then there is no reason for them to back the original deal. The negotiator should be someone trusted to negotiate in good faith by the ERG and DUP.

It would make absolutely no difference. The idea that the UK's negotiation has been screwed up because of Olly Robbins or anyone else is for the birds. The negotiation has actually been quite good - the change they got to the EU's original backstop was a remarkable achievement from a weak negotiating position.

Isn't the new backstop effectively free membership of the SM and CU? can't see them being keen on continuing that indefinitely.

RobD

Anorak said:

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

Quite ...

https://twitter.com/julieowenmoylan/status/1090601439951495168?s=21

How will it have broken the GFA?

It will be portrayed and perceived as having broken the GFA. The fact that the letter of the agreement may arguably not have been broken - and we can agree to disagree on that point - is neither here nor there to the influential Irish-American lobby.

It will be the UK's fault that Ireland is in a bad position. The End.

I suppose we are in the post-truth era.

Richard_Nabavi

SouthamObserver said:

I’m surprised the fact that May was told by the EU that it would not reopen the withdrawal agreement before she addressed the Commons yesterday has not received more attention.

It wasn't news.

This is a charade she has to go through. In a couple of weeks time she'll come back with the message to MPs that EU aren't going to change the Withdrawal Agreement, so nothing has changed and There Is No Alternative. Admittedly it would be far cheaper, easier and quicker for MPs to discover this for themselves by reading a newspaper or looking at Tusk's twitter feed, but for some reason they seem incapable of doing so.

Philip_Thompson

Cyclefree said:

OldKingCole said:

It's frightening; the country is on the verge of the greatest change it's ever made and the main issue is how to maintain the unity of the governing party. No doubt Corbyn could have been more forthcoming, but the PM must have some concept of what the other European leaders think. However, it doesn't appear that she does. Or cares.

We are behaving like the perfidious Albion some foreigners have always claimed we are. This will have real live consequences for Britain. We are making it very hard for other countries to take us seriously.

And last night’s delusional Parliamentary shenanigans have not helped.

This is not a game. Even if people did not like the decision to leave the EU, we could have earned some credit in the manner of our leaving. We are doing the complete opposite. It does us no credit at all. The fact that the reaction of some is to abuse those foreign politicians who point this out is not an example of some bulldog spirit but of someone who has been on the spirits, meths probably, to judge by the incoherent and delusional ramblings of the British politicians interviewed today.

Could not disagree more.

We are standing up for ourselves which is exactly what we should do. No other nation is going to stand up for us. The backstop is an entirely unreasonable disgrace. The EU threatening no deal at all immediately because of something designed to prevent the potential risk of no deal years from now is entirely illogical.

The only reason ever given as to why the UK should sign up to the backstop is because we are weak and more desperate than they are. To refuse that isn't perfidiousness, it is brave.

Andy_Cooke

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Indeed they are and it is blindingly obvious that they should to every Brexiteer. I see today that May has refused to replace Robbins as negotiator. That I think is a terrible mistake as he isn't trusted and for good reason.

If in 2 weeks Robbins comes back and says he couldn't negotiate any changes despite you, me and every Brexiteer MP knowing they should agree to one then there is no reason for them to back the original deal. The negotiator should be someone trusted to negotiate in good faith by the ERG and DUP.

It would make absolutely no difference. The idea that the UK's negotiation has been screwed up because of Olly Robbins or anyone else is for the birds. The negotiation has actually been quite good - the change they got to the EU's original backstop was a remarkable achievement from a weak negotiating position.

It's all part of the "find someone to blame" position that so many seem to have.

[NB - the "someone" must NOT be themselves or their own side]

Richard_Nabavi

RobD said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Indeed they are and it is blindingly obvious that they should to every Brexiteer. I see today that May has refused to replace Robbins as negotiator. That I think is a terrible mistake as he isn't trusted and for good reason.

If in 2 weeks Robbins comes back and says he couldn't negotiate any changes despite you, me and every Brexiteer MP knowing they should agree to one then there is no reason for them to back the original deal. The negotiator should be someone trusted to negotiate in good faith by the ERG and DUP.

It would make absolutely no difference. The idea that the UK's negotiation has been screwed up because of Olly Robbins or anyone else is for the birds. The negotiation has actually been quite good - the change they got to the EU's original backstop was a remarkable achievement from a weak negotiating position.

Isn't the new backstop effectively free membership of the SM and CU? can't see them being keen on continuing that indefinitely.

Yes, it would be a quite remarkably good deal: free membership and no obligation on freedom of movement.

OldKingCole

felix said:

OldKingCole said:

felix said:

OldKingCole said:

felix said:

OldKingCole said:

It's frightening; the country is on the verge of ts.

pretty well the nature of politics in my, admittedly, too long experience.

'We need the level of debate to rise above this'

My point exactly.

Apologies for all my typos which I've just seen. But you miss my main point which is that politicians mostly genuinely and passionately believe that they are right and their policies are for the good of the country. I'm convinced that this is the case with T. May although of course I accept she has made errors and has faults. However, the main reason she has failed, lies with the task imposed by the referendum resultrather than her approach. I'm unconvinced that anyone else would have done a much better job. There is no easy answer or magic formula to reconcile the nature of the pulic divisions we have. We see how awful it all is on here daily. The eventual 'deal' will be pretty crap and we will all eventually move on. That is about the sum of it I fear.

Yup, have typo trouble myself. Either FFS or predictive text jumping to erroneous conclusions!

I agree with you that most politicians equate their country's good with their party's good.... and why else, as you say, would they be party politicians.
May, though, first of all urged people to vote remain, although BBC2 the other night suggested that that represented a switch, then took up the job of Tory Leader/PM as last one standing and said that she'd implement the result. Instead of being flexible, and seeking some sort of cross party consensus though, she refused to involve anyone else and publicly laid down red lines.

It's easy to be wise after the event of course, but it does seem as all the way through she's been more concerned to keep her awkward squad on side than anything else.

She has acted however imperfectly, as most other party leaders would have done. As I say, the problem is 90% the brief and 10% everything else. Brexit is the ultimate circle that is near impossible to square.

I don't agree with your proportions, I'm afraid. I think the political class bear a heavy responsibility, both for the Referendum result and the way matters have been conducted since. I agree that we have arrived at a point where the people of Lilliput were when Gulliver landed among them; trying to solve a problem that was well out of their reach. If we have the politicians we deserve we, as a nation, must have done something terrible.

Beverley_C

felix said:

Beverley_C said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/yougov/status/1090598170101465089?s=21

I do not think that the EU should postpone the date either. Far better to get this over with shortly.

So the views of other EU countries should be ignored in favour of the French and Germans, which by chance coincide with your own views.

I never said anything about other countries, I merely expressed my own viewpoint. You are misrepresenting what I said.

Philip_Thompson

Richard_Nabavi said:

SouthamObserver said:

I’m surprised the fact that May was told by the EU that it would not reopen the withdrawal agreement before she addressed the Commons yesterday has not received more attention.

It wasn't news.

This is a charade she has to go through. In a couple of weeks time she'll come back with the message to MPs that EU aren't going to change the Withdrawal Agreement, so nothing has changed and There Is No Alternative. Admittedly it would be far cheaper, easier and quicker for MPs to discover this for themselves by reading a newspaper or looking at Tusk's twitter feed, but for some reason they seem incapable of doing so.

Still wouldn't believe it. Why should we believe Tusk just because he says so?

A change will only happen when the EU think it is necessary. That is not prematurely. Give me one good reason to trust Tusk please.

SouthamObserver

Richard_Nabavi said:

SouthamObserver said:

I’m surprised the fact that May was told by the EU that it would not reopen the withdrawal agreement before she addressed the Commons yesterday has not received more attention.

It wasn't news.

This is a charade she has to go through. In a couple of weeks time she'll come back with the message to MPs that EU aren't going to change the Withdrawal Agreement, so nothing has changed and There Is No Alternative. Admittedly it would be far cheaper, easier and quicker for MPs to discover this for themselves by reading a newspaper or looking at Tusk's twitter feed, but for some reason they seem incapable of doing so.

Ha, ha - fair point!

stodge

BannedInParis said:

"I find such language reminiscent of the days of the Cold War and the notion of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD). The notion "they" must back down because of the damage MAD will cause was a notion prevalent in the Cold War. The only problem was the other side had exactly the same mindset."

... and the result was ... ?

In the end, one side collapsed because of its own internal contradictions.

The other side won but didn't know what to do with its victory.

Jonathan

Are the rumours true that Corbyn is taking someone from John Lewis to take the measurements?

Beverley_C

felix said:

Beverley_C said:

felix said:

OldKingCole said:

It's frightening; the country is on the verge of the greatest change it's ever made and the main issue is how to maintain the unity of the governing party. No doubt Corbyn could have been more forthcoming, but the PM must have some concept of what the other European leaders think. However, it doesn't appear that she does. Or cares.

Enough already with the party v country nonsense.

Why? It appears to be true of the Tories and Momentum. Should we ignore that truth when it appears to to be the driving force behind all the decisions we are seeing and the strategies that are adopted? None of this makes sense unless it is viewed through the lens of party loyalty.

felix said:

The aim of the exercise is to achieve a deal which can command a majority in the house, as well as the acceptance of the EU 27, while respecting the vote of the people.

Which the current behaviour is clearly impeding. We lack what we need - a govt of National Unity.

I take it you couldn't be bothered to read beyond the first line. Of course your own position is completely neutral with the interests of all citizens taken equally to heart, regardless of their views and beliefs.

I am not sitting in Parliament with the power to alter these things. I am merely a frustrated voter who is exceptionally annoyed at what I see as a total disregard for the good of the country.

williamglenn

Philip_Thompson said:

Cyclefree said:

OldKingCole said:

It's frightening; the country is on the verge of the greatest change it's ever made and the main issue is how to maintain the unity of the governing party. No doubt Corbyn could have been more forthcoming, but the PM must have some concept of what the other European leaders think. However, it doesn't appear that she does. Or cares.

We are behaving like the perfidious Albion some foreigners have always claimed we are. This will have real live consequences for Britain. We are making it very hard for other countries to take us seriously.

And last night’s delusional Parliamentary shenanigans have not helped.

This is not a game. Even if people did not like the decision to leave the EU, we could have earned some credit in the manner of our leaving. We are doing the complete opposite. It does us no credit at all. The fact that the reaction of some is to abuse those foreign politicians who point this out is not an example of some bulldog spirit but of someone who has been on the spirits, meths probably, to judge by the incoherent and delusional ramblings of the British politicians interviewed today.

Could not disagree more.

We are standing up for ourselves which is exactly what we should do. No other nation is going to stand up for us. The backstop is an entirely unreasonable disgrace. The EU threatening no deal at all immediately because of something designed to prevent the potential risk of no deal years from now is entirely illogical.

The only reason ever given as to why the UK should sign up to the backstop is because we are weak and more desperate than they are. To refuse that isn't perfidiousness, it is brave.

The backstop is there to prevent the issue of the Irish border being used for leverage by any side during the subsequent negotiations, and this primarily benefits the U.K. The Tory party’s rejection of it creates an issue of trust.

Philip_Thompson

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Indeed they are and it is blindingly obvious that they should to every Brexiteer. I see today that May has refused to replace Robbins as negotiator. That I think is a terrible mistake as he isn't trusted and for good reason.

If in 2 weeks Robbins comes back and says he couldn't negotiate any changes despite you, me and every Brexiteer MP knowing they should agree to one then there is no reason for them to back the original deal. The negotiator should be someone trusted to negotiate in good faith by the ERG and DUP.

It would make absolutely no difference. The idea that the UK's negotiation has been screwed up because of Olly Robbins or anyone else is for the birds. The negotiation has actually been quite good - the change they got to the EU's original backstop was a remarkable achievement from a weak negotiating position.

The change was only good from the perspective that binding the whole UK and not a part of it is good. The change was nothing special from the perspective of those of us who entirely reasonably believe that the UK voting to leave the EU so we can control and diverge our laws and customs means the whole UK should be able to diverge our laws and customs.

Richard_Nabavi

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

SouthamObserver said:

I’m surprised the fact that May was told by the EU that it would not reopen the withdrawal agreement before she addressed the Commons yesterday has not received more attention.

It wasn't news.

This is a charade she has to go through. In a couple of weeks time she'll come back with the message to MPs that EU aren't going to change the Withdrawal Agreement, so nothing has changed and There Is No Alternative. Admittedly it would be far cheaper, easier and quicker for MPs to discover this for themselves by reading a newspaper or looking at Tusk's twitter feed, but for some reason they seem incapable of doing so.

Still wouldn't believe it. Why should we believe Tusk just because he says so?

A change will only happen when the EU think it is necessary. That is not prematurely. Give me one good reason to trust Tusk please.

Well, it's not just Tusk of course. It's anyone significant in the EU you care to ask.

The main reason to believe them is that there is no institutional means for them to change tack at this stage. The EU's decision-making process is very heavily constrained.

RobD

Beverley_C said:

felix said:

Beverley_C said:

felix said:

OldKingCole said:

It's frightening; the country is on the verge of the greatest change it's ever made and the main issue is how to maintain the unity of the governing party. No doubt Corbyn could have been more forthcoming, but the PM must have some concept of what the other European leaders think. However, it doesn't appear that she does. Or cares.

Enough already with the party v country nonsense.

Why? It appears to be true of the Tories and Momentum. Should we ignore that truth when it appears to to be the driving force behind all the decisions we are seeing and the strategies that are adopted? None of this makes sense unless it is viewed through the lens of party loyalty.

felix said:

The aim of the exercise is to achieve a deal which can command a majority in the house, as well as the acceptance of the EU 27, while respecting the vote of the people.

Which the current behaviour is clearly impeding. We lack what we need - a govt of National Unity.

I take it you couldn't be bothered to read beyond the first line. Of course your own position is completely neutral with the interests of all citizens taken equally to heart, regardless of their views and beliefs.

I am not sitting in Parliament with the power to alter these things. I am merely a frustrated voter who is exceptionally annoyed at what I see as a total disregard for the good of the country.

You mean "what I think is the good of the country"?. A bit like national interest in that respect.

OldKingCole

Philip_Thompson said:

Cyclefree said:

OldKingCole said:

It's frightening; the country is on the verge of the greatest change it's ever made and the main issue is how to maintain the unity of the governing party. No doubt Corbyn could have been more forthcoming, but the PM must have some concept of what the other European leaders think. However, it doesn't appear that she does. Or cares.

We are behaving like the perfidious Albion some foreigners have always claimed we are. This will have real live consequences for Britain. We are making it very hard for other countries to take us seriously.

And last night’s delusional Parliamentary shenanigans have not helped.

This is not a game. Even if people did not like the decision to leave the EU, we could have earned some credit in the manner of our leaving. We are doing the complete opposite. It does us no credit at all. The fact that the reaction of some is to abuse those foreign politicians who point this out is not an example of some bulldog spirit but of someone who has been on the spirits, meths probably, to judge by the incoherent and delusional ramblings of the British politicians interviewed today.

Could not disagree more.

We are standing up for ourselves which is exactly what we should do. No other nation is going to stand up for us. The backstop is an entirely unreasonable disgrace. The EU threatening no deal at all immediately because of something designed to prevent the potential risk of no deal years from now is entirely illogical.

The only reason ever given as to why the UK should sign up to the backstop is because we are weak and more desperate than they are. To refuse that isn't perfidiousness, it is brave.

It's 'brave' in the sense that Custer was 'brave'. There's a difference between brave and being foolhardy. Rather like the middle-aged spinster schoolteacher, in the thirties who twisted her engagement ring and told her class that 'dulce et decorum est pro patria mori' was one of the most inaccurate lines ever written.

Andrew

Richard_Nabavi said:

Yes, it would be a quite remarkably good deal: free membership and no obligation on freedom of movement.

Also no ongoing payments for single market access, which we can expect to be ballpark 7/8bn per year.

A true Machiavelli PM would let us go into the backstop and leave it there. It's far more of a trap for the EU than for us.

Philip_Thompson

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Cyclefree said:

OldKingCole said:

It's frightening; the country is on the verge of the greatest change it's ever made and the main issue is how to maintain the unity of the governing party. No doubt Corbyn could have been more forthcoming, but the PM must have some concept of what the other European leaders think. However, it doesn't appear that she does. Or cares.

We are behaving like the perfidious Albion some foreigners have always claimed we are. This will have real live consequences for Britain. We are making it very hard for other countries to take us seriously.

And last night’s delusional Parliamentary shenanigans have not helped.

This is not a game. Even if people did not like the decision to leave the EU, we could have earned some credit in the manner of our leaving. We are doing the complete opposite. It does us no credit at all. The fact that the reaction of some is to abuse those foreign politicians who point this out is not an example of some bulldog spirit but of someone who has been on the spirits, meths probably, to judge by the incoherent and delusional ramblings of the British politicians interviewed today.

Could not disagree more.

We are standing up for ourselves which is exactly what we should do. No other nation is going to stand up for us. The backstop is an entirely unreasonable disgrace. The EU threatening no deal at all immediately because of something designed to prevent the potential risk of no deal years from now is entirely illogical.

The only reason ever given as to why the UK should sign up to the backstop is because we are weak and more desperate than they are. To refuse that isn't perfidiousness, it is brave.

The backstop is there to prevent the issue of the Irish border being used for leverage by any side during the subsequent negotiations, and this primarily benefits the U.K. The Tory party’s rejection of it creates an issue of trust.

Bullshit. It is there to bind the UK and NI to the Single Market and Customs Union when the vote to leave the EU was a vote to leave those.

ExiledInScotland

tpfkar said:

Another Brexit morning after the night before. At least Corbyn will make it to no. 10 today, probably for the only time.

I wonder if an enterprising bookie might put a market up for how long the UK will tolerate a no deal scenario. I reckon after 3 weeks we'll be hungry, stuck (although with Chris Grayling in charge that may not be all due to the failed Brexit), sick, short on power and very very angry.

Surely, just like the US shutdown the pain will accumulate beyond breaking point? I just hope someone in Brussels has a 'please sign here' piece of paper for an emergency membership reprieve for the UK, although I dread to think what the Ts and Cs would be.

There is no quick mechanism to rejoin. The only way back is accession talks, probably accepting the Euro and other matters. A multi-year process.

If we No-Deal then we will be on WTO for years, which could actually help focus minds on what we do as a country. We have to pay our way in the world - how do we best do that?

Philip_Thompson

Richard_Nabavi said:

RobD said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Indeed they are and it is blindingly obvious that they should to every Brexiteer. I see today that May has refused to replace Robbins as negotiator. That I think is a terrible mistake as he isn't trusted and for good reason.

If in 2 weeks Robbins comes back and says he couldn't negotiate any changes despite you, me and every Brexiteer MP knowing they should agree to one then there is no reason for them to back the original deal. The negotiator should be someone trusted to negotiate in good faith by the ERG and DUP.

It would make absolutely no difference. The idea that the UK's negotiation has been screwed up because of Olly Robbins or anyone else is for the birds. The negotiation has actually been quite good - the change they got to the EU's original backstop was a remarkable achievement from a weak negotiating position.

Isn't the new backstop effectively free membership of the SM and CU? can't see them being keen on continuing that indefinitely.

Yes, it would be a quite remarkably good deal: free membership and no obligation on freedom of movement.

Which is remarkably good for those who want membership yes. For those who wanted to end our membership can you not figure out what the problem is?

Beverley_C

RobD said:

Beverley_C said:

felix said:

Beverley_C said:

felix said:

OldKingCole said:

It's frightening; the country is on the verge of the greatest change it's ever made and the main issue is how to maintain the unity of the governing party. No doubt Corbyn could have been more forthcoming, but the PM must have some concept of what the other European leaders think. However, it doesn't appear that she does. Or cares.

Enough already with the party v country nonsense.

Why? It appears to be true of the Tories and Momentum. Should we ignore that truth when it appears to to be the driving force behind all the decisions we are seeing and the strategies that are adopted? None of this makes sense unless it is viewed through the lens of party loyalty.

felix said:

The aim of the exercise is to achieve a deal which can command a majority in the house, as well as the acceptance of the EU 27, while respecting the vote of the people.

Which the current behaviour is clearly impeding. We lack what we need - a govt of National Unity.

I take it you couldn't be bothered to read beyond the first line. Of course your own position is completely neutral with the interests of all citizens taken equally to heart, regardless of their views and beliefs.

I am not sitting in Parliament with the power to alter these things. I am merely a frustrated voter who is exceptionally annoyed at what I see as a total disregard for the good of the country.

You mean "what I think is the good of the country"?. A bit like national interest in that respect.

Yes. As I said "... who is exceptionally annoyed at what I see as a total disregard for the good of the country. ..."

I find it difficult to see how driving the country off an economic cliff is good for it.

OldKingCole

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

SouthamObserver said:

I’m surprised the fact that May was told by the EU that it would not reopen the withdrawal agreement before she addressed the Commons yesterday has not received more attention.

It wasn't news.

This is a charade she has to go through. In a couple of weeks time she'll come back with the message to MPs that EU aren't going to change the Withdrawal Agreement, so nothing has changed and There Is No Alternative. Admittedly it would be far cheaper, easier and quicker for MPs to discover this for themselves by reading a newspaper or looking at Tusk's twitter feed, but for some reason they seem incapable of doing so.

Still wouldn't believe it. Why should we believe Tusk just because he says so?

A change will only happen when the EU think it is necessary. That is not prematurely. Give me one good reason to trust Tusk please.

He probably says the same about May. Or many other British politicians.

Richard_Nabavi

Philip_Thompson said:

Which is remarkably good for those who want membership yes. For those who wanted to end our membership can you not figure out what the problem is?

Sure, but from the EU's point of view it's an incredibly generous deal, breaking their red lines and giving us something never offered to any other country (which is why there was opposition to it within the EU). So the idea that this is something they want to 'trap' us into is raving bonkers.

OblitusSumMe

tpfkar said:

I just hope someone in Brussels has a 'please sign here' piece of paper for an emergency membership reprieve for the UK, although I dread to think what the Ts and Cs would be.

I don't think that is legally possible. We would have become a third country. There would be no mechanism for it.

Happy to be corrected if my understanding is wrong.

Philip_Thompson

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

SouthamObserver said:

I’m surprised the fact that May was told by the EU that it would not reopen the withdrawal agreement before she addressed the Commons yesterday has not received more attention.

It wasn't news.

This is a charade she has to go through. In a couple of weeks time she'll come back with the message to MPs that EU aren't going to change the Withdrawal Agreement, so nothing has changed and There Is No Alternative. Admittedly it would be far cheaper, easier and quicker for MPs to discover this for themselves by reading a newspaper or looking at Tusk's twitter feed, but for some reason they seem incapable of doing so.

Still wouldn't believe it. Why should we believe Tusk just because he says so?

A change will only happen when the EU think it is necessary. That is not prematurely. Give me one good reason to trust Tusk please.

Well, it's not just Tusk of course. It's anyone significant in the EU you care to ask.

The main reason to believe them is that there is no institutional means for them to change tack at this stage. The EU's decision-making process is very heavily constrained.

Of course there is. They can do a last minute fudge which is what they are experts at. If Varadkar/Coveney accept we are serious they will have to blink at which point things can move rapidly. That will only happen if we are serious.

You won't convince anyone a last minute deal isn't possible if we don't reach the last minute. We could agree a deal on 27/3 and get it ratified in 24 hours if need be.

tpfkar

ExiledInScotland said:

tpfkar said:

Another Brexit morning after the night before. At least Corbyn will make it to no. 10 today, probably for the only time.

I wonder if an enterprising bookie might put a market up for how long the UK will tolerate a no deal scenario. I reckon after 3 weeks we'll be hungry, stuck (although with Chris Grayling in charge that may not be all due to the failed Brexit), sick, short on power and very very angry.

Surely, just like the US shutdown the pain will accumulate beyond breaking point? I just hope someone in Brussels has a 'please sign here' piece of paper for an emergency membership reprieve for the UK, although I dread to think what the Ts and Cs would be.

There is no quick mechanism to rejoin. The only way back is accession talks, probably accepting the Euro and other matters. A multi-year process.

If we No-Deal then we will be on WTO for years, which could actually help focus minds on what we do as a country. We have to pay our way in the world - how do we best do that?

That's just my point though. You're absolutely right legally, once out we are out.

But I'm talking about the scenario where we don't have food or medicine to last the week. A multi-year rejoining application isn't an option. How do we get out of that? And how would the EU respond if we had no choice but to throw ourselves on their mercy?

OblitusSumMe

Philip_Thompson said:

The only reason ever given as to why the UK should sign up to the backstop is because we are weak and more desperate than they are. To refuse that isn't perfidiousness, it is brave.

That's not true. People (who you don't agree with) have argued that we should sign up to the backstop (or the Northern Ireland Peace Agreement Guarantee as they've suggested it should be known) so that we have a guarantee that the EU will not use the threat of a hard border in Northern Ireland to force us to sign a trade deal that we don't want.

I don't see it as a concession on our part. It's in what I perceive as our national interest too.

RobD

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Cyclefree said:

OldKingCole said:

It's frightening; the country is on the verge of the greatest change it's ever made and the main issue is how to maintain the unity of the governing party. No doubt Corbyn could have been more forthcoming, but the PM must have some concept of what the other European leaders think. However, it doesn't appear that she does. Or cares.

We are behaving like the perfidious Albion some foreigners have always claimed we are. This will have real live consequences for Britain. We are making it very hard for other countries to take us seriously.

And last night’s delusional Parliamentary shenanigans have not helped.

This is not a game. Even if people did not like the decision to leave the EU, we could have earned some credit in the manner of our leaving. We are doing the complete opposite. It does us no credit at all. The fact that the reaction of some is to abuse those foreign politicians who point this out is not an example of some bulldog spirit but of someone who has been on the spirits, meths probably, to judge by the incoherent and delusional ramblings of the British politicians interviewed today.

Could not disagree more.

We are standing up for ourselves which is exactly what we should do. No other nation is going to stand up for us. The backstop is an entirely unreasonable disgrace. The EU threatening no deal at all immediately because of something designed to prevent the potential risk of no deal years from now is entirely illogical.

The only reason ever given as to why the UK should sign up to the backstop is because we are weak and more desperate than they are. To refuse that isn't perfidiousness, it is brave.

The backstop is there to prevent the issue of the Irish border being used for leverage by any side during the subsequent negotiations, and this primarily benefits the U.K. The Tory party’s rejection of it creates an issue of trust.

And May succeeded in making it a lot more unpalatable for the EU

Richard_Nabavi

Philip_Thompson said:

Of course there is. They can do a last minute fudge which is what they are experts at. If Varadkar/Coveney accept we are serious they will have to blink at which point things can move rapidly. That will only happen if we are serious.

You won't convince anyone a last minute deal isn't possible if we don't reach the last minute. We could agree a deal on 27/3 and get it ratified in 24 hours if need be.

Sure, they might come up with some face-saving fudge. They are very good at that. But I don't think they'll do very much for the obvious reason that even if they do, it's unlikely to get through parliament anyway. The ERG will just bank anything and claim that it shows the EU is on the run, so we should go for more, or will say it's just cosmetic, or both. Labour will continue to be cynical, and in any case the backstop isn't really an issue for them. So why would the EU engage with this charade?

As for 'last minute', we are already past the last minute. Serious damage is already being done, as businesses trigger their panic plans. A lot of that damage is irreversible.

gypsumfantastic

Richard_Nabavi said:

It would make absolutely no difference. The idea that the UK's negotiation has been screwed up because of Olly Robbins or anyone else is for the birds. The negotiation has actually been quite good - the change they got to the EU's original backstop was a remarkable achievement from a weak negotiating position.

I think it's incredibly rum to blame civil servants for doing their job. Robbins has worked tirelessly to put together some kind of deal within the contradictory and absurd red lines laid down by May, as well as the infighting, political dysfunction, delusion and obstruction being thrown in every direction by the political class. The fact that the deal is terrible and everyone hates it is not something he deserves blame for.

He deserves a medal for putting up with this insanity, frankly.

williamglenn

Things will be fine because our abyss is shallower than theirs...

https://twitter.com/dcbmep/status/1090606040394186752?s=21

TheValiant

tpfkar said:

Another Brexit morning after the night before. At least Corbyn will make it to no. 10 today, probably for the only time.

I wonder if an enterprising bookie might put a market up for how long the UK will tolerate a no deal scenario. I reckon after 3 weeks we'll be hungry, stuck (although with Chris Grayling in charge that may not be all due to the failed Brexit), sick, short on power and very very angry.

Surely, just like the US shutdown the pain will accumulate beyond breaking point? I just hope someone in Brussels has a 'please sign here' piece of paper for an emergency membership reprieve for the UK, although I dread to think what the Ts and Cs would be.

I don't think we would sign. We would try and get through (and we would, eventually).
To be fair, IF the disastrous no deal situation comes to pass as has been suggested by a few ardent Remainers on here, I'd be VERY VERY worried if I was France. As well as having a migration crisis on their southern borders, they'd have one on their northern.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1090611801409114113

kinabalu

AlastairMeeks said:

Maybe it will be like a Quaker prayer meeting, where each will sit in silence waiting to be moved by the Holy spirit.

A note across the trenches on the 2nd referendum. I still think it a remote prospect but I do not see that yesterday's events make it any the more so. Not sure what the drift in the betting was based on.

gypsumfantastic

ExiledInScotland said:

There is no quick mechanism to rejoin. The only way back is accession talks, probably accepting the Euro and other matters. A multi-year process.

If we No-Deal then we will be on WTO for years, which could actually help focus minds on what we do as a country. We have to pay our way in the world - how do we best do that?

Unlikely. What takes time during accession is the process of bringing incoming states' legal corpus into compliance with the entire acquis communautaire. The Great Repeal Act grandfathers the whole acquis into UK common law at the moment we depart.

Beverley_C

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1090611801409114113

'Tis nothing... a mere scratch.

The Brexiteers assure us all on a regular basis that these company moves only involve a brass nameplate, two or three employees and a coffee machine.

[Pauses and awaits the frantic denials....]

OldKingCole

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

SouthamObserver said:

I’m surprised the fact that May was told by the EU that it would not reopen the withdrawal agreement before she addressed the Commons yesterday has not received more attention.

It wasn't news.

This is a charade she has to go through. In a couple of weeks time she'll come back with the message to MPs that EU aren't going to change the Withdrawal Agreement, so nothing has changed and There Is No Alternative. Admittedly it would be far cheaper, easier and quicker for MPs to discover this for themselves by reading a newspaper or looking at Tusk's twitter feed, but for some reason they seem incapable of doing so.

Still wouldn't believe it. Why should we believe Tusk just because he says so?

A change will only happen when the EU think it is necessary. That is not prematurely. Give me one good reason to trust Tusk please.

Well, it's not just Tusk of course. It's anyone significant in the EU you care to ask.

The main reason to believe them is that there is no institutional means for them to change tack at this stage. The EU's decision-making process is very heavily constrained.

Of course there is. They can do a last minute fudge which is what they are experts at. If Varadkar/Coveney accept we are serious they will have to blink at which point things can move rapidly. That will only happen if we are serious.

You won't convince anyone a last minute deal isn't possible if we don't reach the last minute. We could agree a deal on 27/3 and get it ratified in 24 hours if need be.

Overt bullying of the Irish Republic is likely to go down EXCEEDINGLY well with, for example, the Irish-American lobby in the US. It would also lose us what few friends we still have in the EU.
I realise the Guardian have probable got quotes from friends of their in the European press, but this piece: 'May can no longer be trusted': European press condemns PM' is thought-provoking.

Cyclefree

stodge said:

Cyclefree said:

We are behaving like the perfidious Albion some foreigners have always claimed we are. This will have real live consequences for Britain. We are making it very hard for other countries to take us seriously.

And last night’s delusional Parliamentary shenanigans have not helped.

This is not a game. Even if people did not like the decision to leave the EU, we could have earned some credit in the manner of our leaving. We are doing the complete opposite. It does us no credit at all. The fact that the reaction of some is to abuse those foreign politicians who point this out is not an example of some bulldog spirit but of someone who has been on the spirits, meths probably, to judge by the incoherent and delusional ramblings of the British politicians interviewed today.

Unfortunately there are votes and plenty of them in being seen to be "tough" with Europe and the EU. Cultural and historical stereotypes get wheeled out at times like this not to mention the gratuitous personal insults heaped on Sabine Weygand by at least one member of this forum.

The Conservative Party has clearly decided being anti-European in extremis is the only chance it has to preserve its voting coalition. It will take us to No Deal and blame the EU for any and all disruption that follows.

The apologists and sycophants for May both in the media (the Mail front page today is truly stomach churning) and on this forum would have us believe the Prime Minister won some great victory yesterday. Far from it, by passing the Brady amendment, her party has shown they love unicorns as much as the Corbyn fantasists. The belief is if we shout loud enough, the EU will cave in and give us everything we want.

Simple question, why should they? Second question, why would they?

The nub of this is the tale of two Unions and the fact neither understands how the other operates and both have a romanticised view of how they themselves operate.

I wonder how long those votes will last if a No Deal exit turns out to be chaotic.

Beverley_C

Cyclefree said:

stodge said:

Cyclefree said:

We are behaving like the perfidious Albion some foreigners have always claimed we are. This will have real live consequences for Britain. We are making it very hard for other countries to take us seriously.

And last night’s delusional Parliamentary shenanigans have not helped.

This is not a game. Even if people did not like the decision to leave the EU, we could have earned some credit in the manner of our leaving. We are doing the complete opposite. It does us no credit at all. The fact that the reaction of some is to abuse those foreign politicians who point this out is not an example of some bulldog spirit but of someone who has been on the spirits, meths probably, to judge by the incoherent and delusional ramblings of the British politicians interviewed today.

Unfortunately there are votes and plenty of them in being seen to be "tough" with Europe and the EU. Cultural and historical stereotypes get wheeled out at times like this not to mention the gratuitous personal insults heaped on Sabine Weygand by at least one member of this forum.

The Conservative Party has clearly decided being anti-European in extremis is the only chance it has to preserve its voting coalition. It will take us to No Deal and blame the EU for any and all disruption that follows.

The apologists and sycophants for May both in the media (the Mail front page today is truly stomach churning) and on this forum would have us believe the Prime Minister won some great victory yesterday. Far from it, by passing the Brady amendment, her party has shown they love unicorns as much as the Corbyn fantasists. The belief is if we shout loud enough, the EU will cave in and give us everything we want.

Simple question, why should they? Second question, why would they?

The nub of this is the tale of two Unions and the fact neither understands how the other operates and both have a romanticised view of how they themselves operate.

I wonder how long those votes will last if a No Deal exit turns out to be chaotic.

Have you seen the Barclays tweet about shifting €190bn?

(that is about 540 "£350m per week" buses)

TheWhiteRabbit

The idea No Deal keeps the Tories together is barmy.

75% of Tory MPs will be furious with the other 25% of hardliners/enablers.

gypsumfantastic

Beverley_C said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1090611801409114113

'Tis nothing... a mere scratch.

The Brexiteers assure us all on a regular basis that these company moves only involve a brass nameplate, two or three employees and a coffee machine.

[Pauses and awaits the frantic denials....]

$200bn here, $200bn there and before you know it this Tory No Deal Chaos lark will start adding up to real money.

Cyclefree

Philip_Thompson said:

Cyclefree said:

OldKingCole said:

It's frightening; the country is on the verge of the greatest change it's ever made and the main issue is how to maintain the unity of the governing party. No doubt Corbyn could have been more forthcoming, but the PM must have some concept of what the other European leaders think. However, it doesn't appear that she does. Or cares.

We are behaving like the perfidious Albion some foreigners have always claimed we are. This will have real live consequences for Britain. We are making it very hard for other countries to take us seriously.

And last night’s delusional Parliamentary shenanigans have not helped.

This is not a game. Even if people did not like the decision to leave the EU, we could have earned some credit in the manner of our leaving. We are doing the complete opposite. It does us no credit at all. The fact that the reaction of some is to abuse those foreign politicians who point this out is not an example of some bulldog spirit but of someone who has been on the spirits, meths probably, to judge by the incoherent and delusional ramblings of the British politicians interviewed today.

Could not disagree more.

We are standing up for ourselves which is exactly what we should do. No other nation is going to stand up for us. The backstop is an entirely unreasonable disgrace. The EU threatening no deal at all immediately because of something designed to prevent the potential risk of no deal years from now is entirely illogical.

The only reason ever given as to why the UK should sign up to the backstop is because we are weak and more desperate than they are. To refuse that isn't perfidiousness, it is brave.

We agreed to a backstop in December 2017. Now the PM who agreed it is going back on her word with 58 days to go. Yeah - I’d describe that as perfidious.

We are not standing up for ourselves. We are making ourselves look ridiculous.