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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Taking stock of Brexit with fewer than 60 days until we Leave

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited January 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Taking stock of Brexit with fewer than 60 days until we Leave

Let’s take stock of where we are right now. Most of the leading chains of supermarkets, together with KFC, Pret A Manger and McDonald’s, have warned that a no-deal Brexit would put Britain’s food security at risk. The Health Secretary has confirmed that medicines are going to be prioritised over food, which is simultaneously very sensible and absolutely nuts.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    First.
  • Second.
  • third
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    Fourth. And an analogy to mull over before my Madeiran holiday in April.
  • Thank you for flying Brexit Airways, enjoy your crash.
  • I can understand other companies warning about delays to imports but the amusing thing about the supermarkets and fast food companies is they have spent years banging on about their fresh 100% British produce. How long is McDonald's 100% British Beef going to spend stuck at Calais?

    ;)
  • I can understand other companies warning about delays to imports but the amusing thing about the supermarkets and fast food companies is they have spent years banging on about their fresh 100% British produce. How long is McDonald's 100% British Beef going to spend stuck at Calais?

    ;)
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    edited January 2019
    I find it difficult to believe that, despite protestations to the contrary, there are a majority of MP's in parliament who would ACTUALLY take no-deal over May's deal.

    It will no doubt come down to the last hour, and will probably require some face-saving fudging BUT when it comes to the crunch a deal will get passed.

    We just have to go through the hysterical melodrama first so everybody can be satisfied they did as much as they reasonably could to move the process in their direction.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 948
    You miss of course the most probable outcome. We look like it will actually be no deal, the EU blinks.

    The way they keep repeating "no more negotiations" is very telling - they obviously know that they are going to be just as badly done over as we are by no deal (indeed, Ireland will have it worse than us), and are currently having one last roll of the die. If they send May back with no improvement this time, and parliament holds it's nerve and still refuses to sign on the dotted line, the EU will have to blink - and they know it, hence all the current rhetorical guff about how the backstop can't be removed.

    Only the EU could insist on breaking down negotiations over a disagreement on how a future relationship breakdown will be handled - it's almost worthy of the Pythons!
  • I can understand other companies warning about delays to imports but the amusing thing about the supermarkets and fast food companies is they have spent years banging on about their fresh 100% British produce. How long is McDonald's 100% British Beef going to spend stuck at Calais?

    ;)

    I believe just because something is advertised as being British produce does not mean that it is. As long as it was processed in the UK at one point, it can be labelled as British regardless of source.

    The UK imports around 80% of its food, including 50% of meat. The largest source of meat is Irish beef.
  • Jeremy Corbyn takes Seumas Milne and Karie Murphy to meet TM and as Robert Peston comments they are all opposed to a referendum

    Why has Starmer not resigned and led the labour remain group of mps
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/varadkar-accused-of-leaking-confidential-details-as-brexit-chaos-deepens-37765416.html

    "There are currently no alternative arrangements, which anyone has put forward, which achieve what both sides are determined to achieve..."

    "Currently" rather stands out from that sentence!
  • That point about McDonald’s is very well made. It is not a company that makes such interventions lightly, especially as it will have a large Leave customer base.
  • dotsdots Posts: 615

    I can understand other companies warning about delays to imports but the amusing thing about the supermarkets and fast food companies is they have spent years banging on about their fresh 100% British produce. How long is McDonald's 100% British Beef going to spend stuck at Calais?

    ;)

    Off the top of my head I remember the answer. It was imported, but a British breed of beef.

    Best of breed best of burghers, as they say in Nuremberg
  • I can understand other companies warning about delays to imports but the amusing thing about the supermarkets and fast food companies is they have spent years banging on about their fresh 100% British produce. How long is McDonald's 100% British Beef going to spend stuck at Calais?

    ;)

    I believe just because something is advertised as being British produce does not mean that it is. As long as it was processed in the UK at one point, it can be labelled as British regardless of source.

    The UK imports around 80% of its food, including 50% of meat. The largest source of meat is Irish beef.
    So McDonald's have spent years misleading us and are worried now that their British beef might not be able to be imported?

    That will do wonders for their reputation I'm sure.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    That picture always makes me smile, grimly. It is actually worth 1000 words.

    "Lasting choices will be made quickly off the back of emotion."
    So what's new?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    SunnyJim said:

    I find it difficult to believe that, despite protestations to the contrary, there are a majority of MP's in parliament who would ACTUALLY take no-deal over May's deal.

    It will no doubt come down to the last hour, and will probably require some face-saving fudging BUT when it comes to the crunch a deal will get passed.

    We just have to go through the hysterical melodrama first so everybody can be satisfied they did as much as they reasonably could to move the process in their direction.

    A majority of MPs clearly oppose No Deal, 318 MPs voted to rule out No Deal last night, only 310 MPs to keep No Deal as an option.

    However a permanent Customs Union likely has more MPs behind it than May's Deal as the means to stop No Deal. 301 MPs voted for a permanent Customs Union last year, only 202 voted for May's Deal a few weeks ago. If most of the 17 Tory MPs who voted against No Deal last night switch to back a permanent Customs Union, a permanent Customs Union will almost certainly have a Commons majority and be something the EU will agree given both Juncker and Verhofstadt have said in the last few days they will only reopen negotiations for a permanent Customs Union not for removing the backstop
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688

    Jeremy Corbyn takes Seumas Milne and Karie Murphy to meet TM and as Robert Peston comments they are all opposed to a referendum

    Why has Starmer not resigned and led the labour remain group of mps

    Er.. Starmer, really? He's an injected lawyer into Labour's midst - he only exists because they do. There are much less ephemeral figures that might be the focus for a Labour breakaway.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,919
    edited January 2019

    I can understand other companies warning about delays to imports but the amusing thing about the supermarkets and fast food companies is they have spent years banging on about their fresh 100% British produce. How long is McDonald's 100% British Beef going to spend stuck at Calais?

    ;)

    I believe just because something is advertised as being British produce does not mean that it is. As long as it was processed in the UK at one point, it can be labelled as British regardless of source.

    The UK imports around 80% of its food, including 50% of meat. The largest source of meat is Irish beef.
    So McDonald's have spent years misleading us and are worried now that their British beef might not be able to be imported?

    That will do wonders for their reputation I'm sure.
    They normally use the weaselly "we only use British and Irish beef in our burgers" in their adverts.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    I think food imports are about 40% are they not?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    Thank you for flying Brexit Airways, enjoy your crash.

    Grabcoque redux!
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited January 2019
    HYUFD said:

    SunnyJim said:

    I find it difficult to believe that, despite protestations to the contrary, there are a majority of MP's in parliament who would ACTUALLY take no-deal over May's deal.

    It will no doubt come down to the last hour, and will probably require some face-saving fudging BUT when it comes to the crunch a deal will get passed.

    We just have to go through the hysterical melodrama first so everybody can be satisfied they did as much as they reasonably could to move the process in their direction.

    A majority of MPs clearly oppose No Deal, 318 MPs voted to rule out No Deal last night, only 310 MPs to keep No Deal as an option.

    However a permanent Customs Union likely has more MPs behind it than May's Deal as the means to stop No Deal. 301 MPs voted for a permanent Customs Union last year, only 202 voted for May's Deal a few weeks ago. If most of the 17 Tory MPs who voted against No Deal last night switch to back a permanent Customs Union, a permanent Customs Union will almost certainly have a Commons majority and be something the EU will agree given both Juncker and Verhofstadt have said in the last few days they will only reopen negotiations for a permanent Customs Union not for removing the backstop
    The Government are not going to negotiate or implement a deal that has the support of only 17 Tory MPs, no matter how much the Commons as a whole may wish it. A bit different if the Government changes its policy and whips its MPs to support it, but that's not the same thing.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    Jeremy Corbyn takes Seumas Milne and Karie Murphy to meet TM and as Robert Peston comments they are all opposed to a referendum

    Why has Starmer not resigned and led the labour remain group of mps

    Lord alone knows why my lefty chums place so much faith in Starmer to save the Labour Party from Corbynism.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,742
    HYUFD said:


    A majority of MPs clearly oppose No Deal, 318 MPs voted to rule out No Deal last night, only 310 MPs to keep No Deal as an option.

    However a permanent Customs Union likely has more MPs behind it than May's Deal as the means to stop No Deal. 301 MPs voted for a permanent Customs Union last year, only 202 voted for May's Deal a few weeks ago. If most of the 17 Tory MPs who voted against No Deal last night switch to back a permanent Customs Union, a permanent Customs Union will almost certainly have a Commons majority and be something the EU will agree given both Juncker and Verhofstadt have said in the last few days they will only reopen negotiations for a permanent Customs Union not for removing the backstop

    318-310 isn't a guarantee of anything given the turbulence Alastair sees in the coming weeks.

    The problem with the permanent CU is the Prime Minister has ruled it out on a number of occasions. There may be a majority in the Commons but I doubt there is in the Conservative Party.

    IF May returned from any talks with only a permanent CU, my guess is there would be significant turmoil within the Party but you'd know that better than I.

    I also assume a permanent CU would wreck the Conservative-DUP agreement as well.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    Thank you for flying Brexit Airways, enjoy your crash.

    Aer Lingus just called.

    "That joke isn't funny any more. It's too close to home, too near the bone..."
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    alex. said:

    HYUFD said:

    SunnyJim said:

    I find it difficult to believe that, despite protestations to the contrary, there are a majority of MP's in parliament who would ACTUALLY take no-deal over May's deal.

    It will no doubt come down to the last hour, and will probably require some face-saving fudging BUT when it comes to the crunch a deal will get passed.

    We just have to go through the hysterical melodrama first so everybody can be satisfied they did as much as they reasonably could to move the process in their direction.

    A majority of MPs clearly oppose No Deal, 318 MPs voted to rule out No Deal last night, only 310 MPs to keep No Deal as an option.

    However a permanent Customs Union likely has more MPs behind it than May's Deal as the means to stop No Deal. 301 MPs voted for a permanent Customs Union last year, only 202 voted for May's Deal a few weeks ago. If most of the 17 Tory MPs who voted against No Deal last night switch to back a permanent Customs Union, a permanent Customs Union will almost certainly have a Commons majority and be something the EU will agree given both Juncker and Verhofstadt have said in the last few days they will only reopen negotiations for a permanent Customs Union not for removing the backstop
    The Government are not going to negotiate or implement a deal that has the support of only 17 Tory MPs, no matter how much the Commons as a whole may wish it. A bit different if the Government changes its policy and whips its MPs to support it, but that's not the same thing.
    I'd put the Tory anti no dealers much higher than 17 - could be nearer 100 or even more when push comes to shove.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    A majority of MPs clearly oppose No Deal, 318 MPs voted to rule out No Deal last night, only 310 MPs to keep No Deal as an option.

    However a permanent Customs Union likely has more MPs behind it than May's Deal as the means to stop No Deal. 301 MPs voted for a permanent Customs Union last year, only 202 voted for May's Deal a few weeks ago. If most of the 17 Tory MPs who voted against No Deal last night switch to back a permanent Customs Union, a permanent Customs Union will almost certainly have a Commons majority and be something the EU will agree given both Juncker and Verhofstadt have said in the last few days they will only reopen negotiations for a permanent Customs Union not for removing the backstop

    318-310 isn't a guarantee of anything given the turbulence Alastair sees in the coming weeks.

    The problem with the permanent CU is the Prime Minister has ruled it out on a number of occasions. There may be a majority in the Commons but I doubt there is in the Conservative Party.

    IF May returned from any talks with only a permanent CU, my guess is there would be significant turmoil within the Party but you'd know that better than I.

    I also assume a permanent CU would wreck the Conservative-DUP agreement as well.
    Apparently the DUP don't mind a permanent customs union because it prevents a border within the UK or divergence from rUK?
  • Thank you for flying Brexit Airways, enjoy your crash.

    Aer Lingus just called.

    "That joke isn't funny any more. It's too close to home, too near the bone..."
    Sleazyjet!
  • I can understand other companies warning about delays to imports but the amusing thing about the supermarkets and fast food companies is they have spent years banging on about their fresh 100% British produce. How long is McDonald's 100% British Beef going to spend stuck at Calais?

    ;)

    I believe just because something is advertised as being British produce does not mean that it is. As long as it was processed in the UK at one point, it can be labelled as British regardless of source.

    The UK imports around 80% of its food, including 50% of meat. The largest source of meat is Irish beef.
    So McDonald's have spent years misleading us and are worried now that their British beef might not be able to be imported?

    That will do wonders for their reputation I'm sure.
    They normally use the weaselly "we only use British and Irish beef in our burgers" in their adverts.
    That's fine the Irish keep insisting the border will remain open under all circumstances so that shouldn't be a problem. Why would there be a shortage of beef if it's all British and Irish and the Irish border is open?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    A majority of MPs clearly oppose No Deal, 318 MPs voted to rule out No Deal last night, only 310 MPs to keep No Deal as an option.

    However a permanent Customs Union likely has more MPs behind it than May's Deal as the means to stop No Deal. 301 MPs voted for a permanent Customs Union last year, only 202 voted for May's Deal a few weeks ago. If most of the 17 Tory MPs who voted against No Deal last night switch to back a permanent Customs Union, a permanent Customs Union will almost certainly have a Commons majority and be something the EU will agree given both Juncker and Verhofstadt have said in the last few days they will only reopen negotiations for a permanent Customs Union not for removing the backstop

    318-310 isn't a guarantee of anything given the turbulence Alastair sees in the coming weeks.

    The problem with the permanent CU is the Prime Minister has ruled it out on a number of occasions. There may be a majority in the Commons but I doubt there is in the Conservative Party.

    IF May returned from any talks with only a permanent CU, my guess is there would be significant turmoil within the Party but you'd know that better than I.

    I also assume a permanent CU would wreck the Conservative-DUP agreement as well.
    May's Brexit Mandate, such as it is, comes froma position 180 degrees away from accepting a CU.

    Either she has to resign before it is implemented, or she has to get a new mandate in a fresh election.

    It looks a low-likelihood outcome.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    "Most of the leading chains of supermarkets"

    Well if we look at market share the 48% of supermarkets did not sign the letter and 52% did.

    Interesting stat that. Would we say most of the British public voted for brexit?
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    felix said:

    alex. said:

    HYUFD said:

    SunnyJim said:

    I find it difficult to believe that, despite protestations to the contrary, there are a majority of MP's in parliament who would ACTUALLY take no-deal over May's deal.

    It will no doubt come down to the last hour, and will probably require some face-saving fudging BUT when it comes to the crunch a deal will get passed.

    We just have to go through the hysterical melodrama first so everybody can be satisfied they did as much as they reasonably could to move the process in their direction.

    A majority of MPs clearly oppose No Deal, 318 MPs voted to rule out No Deal last night, only 310 MPs to keep No Deal as an option.

    However a permanent Customs Union likely has more MPs behind it than May's Deal as the means to stop No Deal. 301 MPs voted for a permanent Customs Union last year, only 202 voted for May's Deal a few weeks ago. If most of the 17 Tory MPs who voted against No Deal last night switch to back a permanent Customs Union, a permanent Customs Union will almost certainly have a Commons majority and be something the EU will agree given both Juncker and Verhofstadt have said in the last few days they will only reopen negotiations for a permanent Customs Union not for removing the backstop
    The Government are not going to negotiate or implement a deal that has the support of only 17 Tory MPs, no matter how much the Commons as a whole may wish it. A bit different if the Government changes its policy and whips its MPs to support it, but that's not the same thing.
    I'd put the Tory anti no dealers much higher than 17 - could be nearer 100 or even more when push comes to shove.
    That wasn't my point - HYUFD is suggesting that all it takes for a Permanent Customs union based deal to happen is that the 17 who voted against no deal row in behind it as a policy.

    I don't doubt that many of those who voted against the Spelman amendment are actually against no deal. The distinction is whether they feel formally keeping no deal on the table will make the EU more likely to shift its position.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Forward looking businesses are already in the implementation phase to take McD's customers. Veggie sausage rolls. Be a winner post brexit.
  • Forward looking businesses are already in the implementation phase to take McD's customers. Veggie sausage rolls. Be a winner post brexit.

    Just for the record, I prefer Burger King's Veggie Bean Burger to McDonald's Veggie Deluxe :)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Suggestion to promote world peace:

    The Mexicans pay for the Irish wall and the EU pays for the Mexican wall

    That way everyone’s happy...

  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,742
    Evening all :)

    So if Marquee Mark is right and the bulk of the Conservative Party won't accept a permanent CU, that comes off the table.

    Revocation is political suicide so I think we can rule that out as well.

    We are back where we have always been - May's WA (without amendment) or leaving without a Deal. The obfuscation of yesterday has made no real difference - the Brady amendment is Conservative/DUP unicorn hunting. It's clear this is the Deal they will accept and there are only two problems with that:

    1) It's not the WA that is on the table.
    2) The EU have said they won't change the WA and even if they did they probably wouldn't accept removing the backstop.

    Any trip May makes to Brussels is a fool's errand but that's not why she will go - she now knows full well there will be no Deal. We are now in the blame game and May is determined to get the British public not to blame her or her party but the "nasty Europeans". That was the line after the Salzburg nonsense.

    The slightest disrespect to our Prime Minister is blown up to be an international incident by the absurd jingoism of the Mail and Express who are of course quite happy to aim personal jibes and slurs at anyone prominent in the EU such as Juncker and Weygand.

    Create an enemy add a little fear and you'll get people to agree to anything and everything.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    I can understand other companies warning about delays to imports but the amusing thing about the supermarkets and fast food companies is they have spent years banging on about their fresh 100% British produce. How long is McDonald's 100% British Beef going to spend stuck at Calais?

    ;)

    I believe just because something is advertised as being British produce does not mean that it is. As long as it was processed in the UK at one point, it can be labelled as British regardless of source.

    The UK imports around 80% of its food, including 50% of meat. The largest source of meat is Irish beef.

    I can understand other companies warning about delays to imports but the amusing thing about the supermarkets and fast food companies is they have spent years banging on about their fresh 100% British produce. How long is McDonald's 100% British Beef going to spend stuck at Calais?

    ;)

    I believe just because something is advertised as being British produce does not mean that it is. As long as it was processed in the UK at one point, it can be labelled as British regardless of source.

    The UK imports around 80% of its food, including 50% of meat. The largest source of meat is Irish beef.
    I think the proportion of food we import is about one third, not 80%.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662
    Charles said:

    Suggestion to promote world peace:

    The Mexicans pay for the Irish wall and the EU pays for the Mexican wall

    That way everyone’s happy...

    What we need is a People's wall....
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited January 2019

    Forward looking businesses are already in the implementation phase to take McD's customers. Veggie sausage rolls. Be a winner post brexit.

    They could start selling carrot cake. The Blitz spirit.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,836
    Point of order. In Hinduism, Brahmins may attain moksha.
    Nirvana is Buddhist, which any human may attain....
    That said another good header. My take is that people are aware, anxious, but not yet ready to take concrete action to prepare.
    This applies to politicians and the general public alike.
  • stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    So if Marquee Mark is right and the bulk of the Conservative Party won't accept a permanent CU, that comes off the table.

    Revocation is political suicide so I think we can rule that out as well.

    We are back where we have always been - May's WA (without amendment) or leaving without a Deal. The obfuscation of yesterday has made no real difference - the Brady amendment is Conservative/DUP unicorn hunting. It's clear this is the Deal they will accept and there are only two problems with that:

    1) It's not the WA that is on the table.
    2) The EU have said they won't change the WA and even if they did they probably wouldn't accept removing the backstop.

    Any trip May makes to Brussels is a fool's errand but that's not why she will go - she now knows full well there will be no Deal. We are now in the blame game and May is determined to get the British public not to blame her or her party but the "nasty Europeans". That was the line after the Salzburg nonsense.

    The slightest disrespect to our Prime Minister is blown up to be an international incident by the absurd jingoism of the Mail and Express who are of course quite happy to aim personal jibes and slurs at anyone prominent in the EU such as Juncker and Weygand.

    Create an enemy add a little fear and you'll get people to agree to anything and everything.

    Let's posit that you are right. There will be no deal and the Europeans will be blamed. What happens next?
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    I can understand other companies warning about delays to imports but the amusing thing about the supermarkets and fast food companies is they have spent years banging on about their fresh 100% British produce. How long is McDonald's 100% British Beef going to spend stuck at Calais?

    ;)

    I believe just because something is advertised as being British produce does not mean that it is. As long as it was processed in the UK at one point, it can be labelled as British regardless of source.

    The UK imports around 80% of its food, including 50% of meat. The largest source of meat is Irish beef.
    The facts are bad enough without lying.
  • As a pilot (albeit an amateur one) if the engine starts stuttering beyond the point of no return I'm going off the end of the runway and through the hedge not into the air. There might be a lesson in that.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    Sean_F said:

    I can understand other companies warning about delays to imports but the amusing thing about the supermarkets and fast food companies is they have spent years banging on about their fresh 100% British produce. How long is McDonald's 100% British Beef going to spend stuck at Calais?

    ;)

    I believe just because something is advertised as being British produce does not mean that it is. As long as it was processed in the UK at one point, it can be labelled as British regardless of source.

    The UK imports around 80% of its food, including 50% of meat. The largest source of meat is Irish beef.

    I can understand other companies warning about delays to imports but the amusing thing about the supermarkets and fast food companies is they have spent years banging on about their fresh 100% British produce. How long is McDonald's 100% British Beef going to spend stuck at Calais?

    ;)

    I believe just because something is advertised as being British produce does not mean that it is. As long as it was processed in the UK at one point, it can be labelled as British regardless of source.

    The UK imports around 80% of its food, including 50% of meat. The largest source of meat is Irish beef.
    I think the proportion of food we import is about one third, not 80%.
    As far as I am aware No Deal Brexit will pose major customs and licencing challenges, but does not amount to an economic blockade. I'd have thought the main effect would be price spikes in fresh food imported from the EU with a knock on effect to the broader economy.

    Noone will go hungry but it won't be popular either.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    dixiedean said:

    Point of order. In Hinduism, Brahmins may attain moksha.
    Nirvana is Buddhist, which any human may attain....
    That said another good header. My take is that people are aware, anxious, but not yet ready to take concrete action to prepare.
    This applies to politicians and the general public alike.

    How should the general public prepare?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019

    Jeremy Corbyn takes Seumas Milne and Karie Murphy to meet TM and as Robert Peston comments they are all opposed to a referendum

    Why has Starmer not resigned and led the labour remain group of mps

    Lord alone knows why my lefty chums place so much faith in Starmer to save the Labour Party from Corbynism.
    Starmer thinks like and looks like them. That's why.

    I had to laugh when Matt Forde suggested Anna Soubry become Tory party leader on Twitter earlier today. He made similar suggestions for all the other major parties too.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    Sean_F said:

    I can understand other companies warning about delays to imports but the amusing thing about the supermarkets and fast food companies is they have spent years banging on about their fresh 100% British produce. How long is McDonald's 100% British Beef going to spend stuck at Calais?

    ;)

    I believe just because something is advertised as being British produce does not mean that it is. As long as it was processed in the UK at one point, it can be labelled as British regardless of source.

    The UK imports around 80% of its food, including 50% of meat. The largest source of meat is Irish beef.

    I can understand other companies warning about delays to imports but the amusing thing about the supermarkets and fast food companies is they have spent years banging on about their fresh 100% British produce. How long is McDonald's 100% British Beef going to spend stuck at Calais?

    ;)

    I believe just because something is advertised as being British produce does not mean that it is. As long as it was processed in the UK at one point, it can be labelled as British regardless of source.

    The UK imports around 80% of its food, including 50% of meat. The largest source of meat is Irish beef.
    I think the proportion of food we import is about one third, not 80%.
    As far as I am aware No Deal Brexit will pose major customs and licencing challenges, but does not amount to an economic blockade. I'd have thought the main effect would be price spikes in fresh food imported from the EU with a knock on effect to the broader economy.

    Noone will go hungry but it won't be popular either.
    Imagine , No Lettuce , will be a disaster
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    alex. said:

    HYUFD said:

    SunnyJim said:

    I find it difficult to believe that, despite protestations to the contrary, there are a majority of MP's in parliament who would ACTUALLY take no-deal over May's deal.

    It will no doubt come down to the last hour, and will probably require some face-saving fudging BUT when it comes to the crunch a deal will get passed.

    We just have to go through the hysterical melodrama first so everybody can be satisfied they did as much as they reasonably could to move the process in their direction.

    A majority of MPs clearly oppose No Deal, 318 MPs voted to rule out No Deal last night, only 310 MPs to keep No Deal as an option.

    However a permanent Customs Union likely has more MPs behind it than May's Deal as the means to stop No Deal. 301 MPs voted for a permanent Customs Union last year, only 202 voted for May's Deal a few weeks ago. If most of the 17 Tory MPs who voted against No Deal last night switch to back a permanent Customs Union, a permanent Customs Union will almost certainly have a Commons majority and be something the EU will agree given both Juncker and Verhofstadt have said in the last few days they will only reopen negotiations for a permanent Customs Union not for removing the backstop
    The Government are not going to negotiate or implement a deal that has the support of only 17 Tory MPs, no matter how much the Commons as a whole may wish it. A bit different if the Government changes its policy and whips its MPs to support it, but that's not the same thing.
    If the Commons votes for permanent Customs Union thanks to those 17 Tory MPs then either the Government implements that vote or sets up the biggest constitutional crisis since the Abdication in a legislature v executive battle.

    That is unlikely given May ruled out No Deal Brexit to Ministers a few days ago and if the Deal goes down again half the Cabinet, including Philip Hammond the Chancellor, will shift to back permanent Customs Union instead
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,836
    edited January 2019
    tlg86 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Point of order. In Hinduism, Brahmins may attain moksha.
    Nirvana is Buddhist, which any human may attain....
    That said another good header. My take is that people are aware, anxious, but not yet ready to take concrete action to prepare.
    This applies to politicians and the general public alike.

    How should the general public prepare?
    Stocking up on Meds and tinned and dried goods perhaps?
    That said, I kind of mean mentally prepared for No Deal. Hardcore leavers don't believe there will be a problem. The rest don't believe it will happen.
    We are not at the abyss looking stage yet.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited January 2019
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    A majority of MPs clearly oppose No Deal, 318 MPs voted to rule out No Deal last night, only 310 MPs to keep No Deal as an option.

    However a permanent Customs Union likely has more MPs behind it than May's Deal as the means to stop No Deal. 301 MPs voted for a permanent Customs Union last year, only 202 voted for May's Deal a few weeks ago. If most of the 17 Tory MPs who voted against No Deal last night switch to back a permanent Customs Union, a permanent Customs Union will almost certainly have a Commons majority and be something the EU will agree given both Juncker and Verhofstadt have said in the last few days they will only reopen negotiations for a permanent Customs Union not for removing the backstop

    318-310 isn't a guarantee of anything given the turbulence Alastair sees in the coming weeks.

    The problem with the permanent CU is the Prime Minister has ruled it out on a number of occasions. There may be a majority in the Commons but I doubt there is in the Conservative Party.

    IF May returned from any talks with only a permanent CU, my guess is there would be significant turmoil within the Party but you'd know that better than I.

    I also assume a permanent CU would wreck the Conservative-DUP agreement as well.
    17 Tory MPs voted with the Opposition to make clear they will never accept No Deal under any circumstances, that enabled a majority in the Commons against No Deal and it is the Commons that comprises the legislature, not the Tory Party.

    The majority of the Tory Party may oppose permanent Customs Union but it would still likely pass the Commons if put to the vote as the only alternative left to No Deal. There may be a general election after if the DUP pull the plug but so be it
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    edited January 2019
    malcolmg said:

    Sean_F said:

    I can understand other companies warning about delays to imports but the amusing thing about the supermarkets and fast food companies is they have spent years banging on about their fresh 100% British produce. How long is McDonald's 100% British Beef going to spend stuck at Calais?

    ;)

    I believe just because something is advertised as being British produce does not mean that it is. As long as it was processed in the UK at one point, it can be labelled as British regardless of source.

    The UK imports around 80% of its food, including 50% of meat. The largest source of meat is Irish beef.

    I can understand other companies warning about delays to imports but the amusing thing about the supermarkets and fast food companies is they have spent years banging on about their fresh 100% British produce. How long is McDonald's 100% British Beef going to spend stuck at Calais?

    ;)

    I believe just because something is advertised as being British produce does not mean that it is. As long as it was processed in the UK at one point, it can be labelled as British regardless of source.

    The UK imports around 80% of its food, including 50% of meat. The largest source of meat is Irish beef.
    I think the proportion of food we import is about one third, not 80%.
    As far as I am aware No Deal Brexit will pose major customs and licencing challenges, but does not amount to an economic blockade. I'd have thought the main effect would be price spikes in fresh food imported from the EU with a knock on effect to the broader economy.

    Noone will go hungry but it won't be popular either.
    Imagine , No Lettuce , will be a disaster
    When I was at university, our tutor asked us why it was so difficult for food producers to set up a cartel similar to OPEC. It seems so blindingly obvious, but none of us were smart enough to say "because you can go without certain food products like bananas; there aren't many alternatives to oil."

    So it's puzzled me as to why we're not being told that there will be petrol and diesel shortages as that would have much more impact on people.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    felix said:

    alex. said:

    HYUFD said:

    SunnyJim said:

    I find it difficult to believe that, despite protestations to the contrary, there are a majority of MP's in parliament who would ACTUALLY take no-deal over May's deal.

    It will no doubt come down to the last hour, and will probably require some face-saving fudging BUT when it comes to the crunch a deal will get passed.

    We just have to go through the hysterical melodrama first so everybody can be satisfied they did as much as they reasonably could to move the process in their direction.

    A majority of MPs clearly oppose No Deal, 318 MPs voted to rule out No Deal last night, only 310 MPs to keep No Deal as an option.

    However a permanent Customs Union likely has more MPs behind it than May's Deal as the means to stop No Deal. 301 MPs voted for a permanent Customs Union last year, only 202 voted for May's Deal a few weeks ago. If most of the 17 Tory MPs who voted against No Deal last night switch to back a permanent Customs Union, a permanent Customs Union will almost certainly have a Commons majority and be something the EU will agree given both Juncker and Verhofstadt have said in the last few days they will only reopen negotiations for a permanent Customs Union not for removing the backstop
    The Government are not going to negotiate or implement a deal that has the support of only 17 Tory MPs, no matter how much the Commons as a whole may wish it. A bit different if the Government changes its policy and whips its MPs to support it, but that's not the same thing.
    I'd put the Tory anti no dealers much higher than 17 - could be nearer 100 or even more when push comes to shove.
    Probably correct once half the Cabinet resigns to back permanent Customs Union if May's Deal fails again
  • Isn't it theoretically too late now if the PM insists on leaving the EU on March 29th to prevent it?

    If on 14 Feb Parliament shows no love to May's Valentines MV and May says no deal it is then, what can Parliament do to stop her? If Soubry, Wollaston, Grieve et al No Confidence her then Parliament dissolves on 28 Feb 28 or 1 March setting up an April election. And we no deal exit during the election.
  • HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    alex. said:

    HYUFD said:

    SunnyJim said:

    I find it difficult to believe that, despite protestations to the contrary, there are a majority of MP's in parliament who would ACTUALLY take no-deal over May's deal.

    It will no doubt come down to the last hour, and will probably require some face-saving fudging BUT when it comes to the crunch a deal will get passed.

    We just have to go through the hysterical melodrama first so everybody can be satisfied they did as much as they reasonably could to move the process in their direction.

    A majority of MPs clearly oppose No Deal, 318 MPs voted to rule out No Deal last night, only 310 MPs to keep No Deal as an option.

    However a permanent Customs Union likely has more MPs behind it than May's Deal as the means to stop No Deal. 301 MPs voted for a permanent Customs Union last year, only 202 voted for May's Deal a few weeks ago. If most of the 17 Tory MPs who voted against No Deal last night switch to back a permanent Customs Union, a permanent Customs Union will almost certainly have a Commons majority and be something the EU will agree given both Juncker and Verhofstadt have said in the last few days they will only reopen negotiations for a permanent Customs Union not for removing the backstop
    The Government are not going to negotiate or implement a deal that has the support of only 17 Tory MPs, no matter how much the Commons as a whole may wish it. A bit different if the Government changes its policy and whips its MPs to support it, but that's not the same thing.
    I'd put the Tory anti no dealers much higher than 17 - could be nearer 100 or even more when push comes to shove.
    Probably correct once half the Cabinet resigns to back permanent Customs Union if May's Deal fails again
    Though if those MPs don't include May then even 100 Tory MPs won't be enough to displace May. And they're too late for Parliament to do so too.
  • Deeply disapointed that the trolling opportunity to use 'less than 60 days' was missed.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "The mood across Europe, appears to be one of resignation and bafflement as they struggle to come to terms with May's u-turn on re-opening the withdrawal agreement given the fact that there is still no majority in the Commons for a workable deal with the EU."

    https://www.ft.com/content/6de7c97e-42b8-39f8-ad38-f9c016ea6135
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,231
    malcolmg said:

    Sean_F said:

    I can understand other companies warning about delays to imports but the amusing thing about the supermarkets and fast food companies is they have spent years banging on about their fresh 100% British produce. How long is McDonald's 100% British Beef going to spend stuck at Calais?

    ;)

    I believe just because something is advertised as being British produce does not mean that it is. As long as it was processed in the UK at one point, it can be labelled as British regardless of source.

    The UK imports around 80% of its food, including 50% of meat. The largest source of meat is Irish beef.

    I can understand other companies warning about delays to imports but the amusing thing about the supermarkets and fast food companies is they have spent years banging on about their fresh 100% British produce. How long is McDonald's 100% British Beef going to spend stuck at Calais?

    ;)

    I believe just because something is advertised as being British produce does not mean that it is. As long as it was processed in the UK at one point, it can be labelled as British regardless of source.

    The UK imports around 80% of its food, including 50% of meat. The largest source of meat is Irish beef.
    I think the proportion of food we import is about one third, not 80%.
    As far as I am aware No Deal Brexit will pose major customs and licencing challenges, but does not amount to an economic blockade. I'd have thought the main effect would be price spikes in fresh food imported from the EU with a knock on effect to the broader economy.

    Noone will go hungry but it won't be popular either.
    Imagine , No Lettuce , will be a disaster
    An amazing opportunity for an ambitious businessman with a large stock of turnips, tho... :)
  • tlg86 said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sean_F said:

    I can understand other companies warning about delays to imports but the amusing thing about the supermarkets and fast food companies is they have spent years banging on about their fresh 100% British produce. How long is McDonald's 100% British Beef going to spend stuck at Calais?

    ;)

    I believe just because something is advertised as being British produce does not mean that it is. As long as it was processed in the UK at one point, it can be labelled as British regardless of source.

    The UK imports around 80% of its food, including 50% of meat. The largest source of meat is Irish beef.

    I can understand other companies warning about delays to imports but the amusing thing about the supermarkets and fast food companies is they have spent years banging on about their fresh 100% British produce. How long is McDonald's 100% British Beef going to spend stuck at Calais?

    ;)

    I believe just because something is advertised as being British produce does not mean that it is. As long as it was processed in the UK at one point, it can be labelled as British regardless of source.

    The UK imports around 80% of its food, including 50% of meat. The largest source of meat is Irish beef.
    I think the proportion of food we import is about one third, not 80%.
    As far as I am aware No Deal Brexit will pose major customs and licencing challenges, but does not amount to an economic blockade. I'd have thought the main effect would be price spikes in fresh food imported from the EU with a knock on effect to the broader economy.

    Noone will go hungry but it won't be popular either.
    Imagine , No Lettuce , will be a disaster
    When I was at university, our tutor asked us why it was so difficult for food producers to set up a cartel similar to OPEC. It seems so blindingly obvious, but none of us were smart enough to say "because you can go without certain food products like bananas; there aren't many alternatives to oil."

    So it's puzzled me as to why we're not being told that there will be petrol and diesel shortages as that would have much more impact on people.
    Because we don't import our petrol and diesel from the EU.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623
    May won't change tack, so the only real question left now is what pretendy change or concession is she supposedly going to browbeat out of the EU so she can justify making everyone vote on the deal again - and hoping like mad that the sheer panic of looming no-deal makes the difference.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    tlg86 said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sean_F said:

    I can understand other companies warning about delays to imports but the amusing thing about the supermarkets and fast food companies is they have spent years banging on about their fresh 100% British produce. How long is McDonald's 100% British Beef going to spend stuck at Calais?

    ;)

    I believe just because something is advertised as being British produce does not mean that it is. As long as it was processed in the UK at one point, it can be labelled as British regardless of source.

    The UK imports around 80% of its food, including 50% of meat. The largest source of meat is Irish beef.

    I can understand other companies warning about delays to imports but the amusing thing about the supermarkets and fast food companies is they have spent years banging on about their fresh 100% British produce. How long is McDonald's 100% British Beef going to spend stuck at Calais?

    ;)

    I believe just because something is advertised as being British produce does not mean that it is. As long as it was processed in the UK at one point, it can be labelled as British regardless of source.

    The UK imports around 80% of its food, including 50% of meat. The largest source of meat is Irish beef.
    I think the proportion of food we import is about one third, not 80%.
    As far as I am aware No Deal Brexit will pose major customs and licencing challenges, but does not amount to an economic blockade. I'd have thought the main effect would be price spikes in fresh food imported from the EU with a knock on effect to the broader economy.

    Noone will go hungry but it won't be popular either.
    Imagine , No Lettuce , will be a disaster
    When I was at university, our tutor asked us why it was so difficult for food producers to set up a cartel similar to OPEC. It seems so blindingly obvious, but none of us were smart enough to say "because you can go without certain food products like bananas; there aren't many alternatives to oil."

    So it's puzzled me as to why we're not being told that there will be petrol and diesel shortages as that would have much more impact on people.
    Because we don't import our petrol and diesel from the EU.
    Since when have facts got in the way of scaremongering?
  • Deeply disapointed that the trolling opportunity to use 'less than 60 days' was missed.

    Phew-er!
  • AndyJS said:

    "The mood across Europe, appears to be one of resignation and bafflement as they struggle to come to terms with May's u-turn on re-opening the withdrawal agreement given the fact that there is still no majority in the Commons for a workable deal with the EU."

    https://www.ft.com/content/6de7c97e-42b8-39f8-ad38-f9c016ea6135

    Maybe they'd be less baffled if they understood that for the past year when we said we didn't like their proposed backstop that we meant it.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    Deeply disapointed that the trolling opportunity to use 'less than 60 days' was missed.

    Actually, I would say less than 60 days as days are continuous data - you can have half a day.

  • Isn't it theoretically too late now if the PM insists on leaving the EU on March 29th to prevent it?

    That, of course, is the ERG's and the DUP's and Labour's plan. Force May all the way to the cliff edge and invite her to jump.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009

    AndyJS said:

    "The mood across Europe, appears to be one of resignation and bafflement as they struggle to come to terms with May's u-turn on re-opening the withdrawal agreement given the fact that there is still no majority in the Commons for a workable deal with the EU."

    https://www.ft.com/content/6de7c97e-42b8-39f8-ad38-f9c016ea6135

    Maybe they'd be less baffled if they understood that for the past year when we said we didn't like their proposed backstop that we meant it.
    Who says Brexiteers are on another planet?

    In another galaxy would be more accurate ...
  • AndyJS said:

    "The mood across Europe, appears to be one of resignation and bafflement as they struggle to come to terms with May's u-turn on re-opening the withdrawal agreement given the fact that there is still no majority in the Commons for a workable deal with the EU."

    https://www.ft.com/content/6de7c97e-42b8-39f8-ad38-f9c016ea6135

    Maybe they'd be less baffled if they understood that for the past year when we said we didn't like their proposed backstop that we meant it.
    Whose proposed back stop?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,836
    edited January 2019

    Isn't it theoretically too late now if the PM insists on leaving the EU on March 29th to prevent it?

    If on 14 Feb Parliament shows no love to May's Valentines MV and May says no deal it is then, what can Parliament do to stop her? If Soubry, Wollaston, Grieve et al No Confidence her then Parliament dissolves on 28 Feb 28 or 1 March setting up an April election. And we no deal exit during the election.

    Not if soundings are taken, and another figure who could command the confidence of the House is called.
    If the Tory Party wants to No Deal exit DURING an election campaign, then all I would say is bring on JCPM with a big majority.
    Even TM would not be THAT insane.
  • AndyJS said:

    "The mood across Europe, appears to be one of resignation and bafflement as they struggle to come to terms with May's u-turn on re-opening the withdrawal agreement given the fact that there is still no majority in the Commons for a workable deal with the EU."

    https://www.ft.com/content/6de7c97e-42b8-39f8-ad38-f9c016ea6135

    Maybe they'd be less baffled if they understood that for the past year when we said we didn't like their proposed backstop that we meant it.
    The backstop that the Prime Minister personally negotiated and signed off and then insisted loudly for a year was completely necessary you mean?

    The Prime Minister has been telling the EU for two years her red lines, and the EU have been surprisingly flexible in attempting to accommodate her nonsense.

    Perhaps the EU should have realised sooner that May is a tin-eared automaton, unreliable, incompetent, xenophobic, destructively obstinate and tribally dishonest.

    Unfortunately she's also the PM and that's who they've had to deal with.

    And there we are.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    AndyJS said:

    "The mood across Europe, appears to be one of resignation and bafflement as they struggle to come to terms with May's u-turn on re-opening the withdrawal agreement given the fact that there is still no majority in the Commons for a workable deal with the EU."

    https://www.ft.com/content/6de7c97e-42b8-39f8-ad38-f9c016ea6135

    Maybe they'd be less baffled if they understood that for the past year when we said we didn't like their proposed backstop that we meant it.
    We didn't like the backstop that the government spent the past two years negotiating? That backstop?
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    edited January 2019
    One other thing that is being missed is the closer to Brexit day we move the more producers with lead times and products produced in the EU will have to start quoting prices with customs duties included. You can see all the German, French, Slovakia and Spanish car producers having to jack prices 10%.
    This will lead to another PR battle between the remainers and leavers with leavers saying buy british all the time on TV and remainers playing the victim card.

    The real question will be the order level at the EU produced cars dealerships. If they fall substantially yet UK produced models do not suffer a fall then look out for the EU to instantly become more accommodating.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,002
    edited January 2019

    Isn't it theoretically too late now if the PM insists on leaving the EU on March 29th to prevent it?

    If on 14 Feb Parliament shows no love to May's Valentines MV and May says no deal it is then, what can Parliament do to stop her? If Soubry, Wollaston, Grieve et al No Confidence her then Parliament dissolves on 28 Feb 28 or 1 March setting up an April election. And we no deal exit during the election.

    The amendments in 14 days will almost certainly mandate against no deal and even request a three month extension.

    How on earth Soubry Grieve and Wollaston no confidence her when she is there for 12 months after ERG going off too soon ( and I did say it at the time) and maybe you need to understand better how a vonc on the government works to expect a disolution of the HOC by 28th Feb

  • TOPPING said:

    AndyJS said:

    "The mood across Europe, appears to be one of resignation and bafflement as they struggle to come to terms with May's u-turn on re-opening the withdrawal agreement given the fact that there is still no majority in the Commons for a workable deal with the EU."

    https://www.ft.com/content/6de7c97e-42b8-39f8-ad38-f9c016ea6135

    Maybe they'd be less baffled if they understood that for the past year when we said we didn't like their proposed backstop that we meant it.
    We didn't like the backstop that the government spent the past two years negotiating? That backstop?
    You know when the backstop text draft was first unveiled last december, Boris Johnson led cabinet giving May a round of huzzahs for it.

    The following Summer, however, it was an atrocity that no Prime Minister could ever agree to.

    Conclusion: it took seven months for a single Brexiteer to actually bother to read the backstop that they'd previously feted her for negotiating.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    AndyJS said:

    "The mood across Europe, appears to be one of resignation and bafflement as they struggle to come to terms with May's u-turn on re-opening the withdrawal agreement given the fact that there is still no majority in the Commons for a workable deal with the EU."

    https://www.ft.com/content/6de7c97e-42b8-39f8-ad38-f9c016ea6135

    Maybe they'd be less baffled if they understood that for the past year when we said we didn't like their proposed backstop that we meant it.
    The backstop that the Prime Minister personally negotiated and signed off and then insisted loudly for a year was completely necessary you mean?

    The Prime Minister has been telling the EU for two years her red lines, and the EU have been surprisingly flexible in attempting to accommodate her nonsense.

    Perhaps the EU should have realised sooner that May is a tin-eared automaton, unreliable, incompetent, xenophobic, destructively obstinate and tribally dishonest.

    Unfortunately she's also the PM and that's who they've had to deal with.

    And there we are.
    Grabcoque would be proud of that rant. You got all his points in....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    Isn't it theoretically too late now if the PM insists on leaving the EU on March 29th to prevent it?

    If on 14 Feb Parliament shows no love to May's Valentines MV and May says no deal it is then, what can Parliament do to stop her? If Soubry, Wollaston, Grieve et al No Confidence her then Parliament dissolves on 28 Feb 28 or 1 March setting up an April election. And we no deal exit during the election.

    If Parliament votes for permanent Customs Union that will be the basis for renegotiation with the EU whether we Brexit on March 29th or not, being in the Customs Union does not require being in the EU
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 2,180
    The Tories are going over the falls in a barrel. OK so they are taking us with them in their utterly reckless irresponsible bet. We will probably mostly emerge the other side alive. However even if we did- and it ain't certain- the fact that these B*****ds played this game and could get away with it is why we now need major political reform.

    Communist Corbyn us a useless as a chocolate teapot, May will be out of it. We now need to change utterly and do it damn quick.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    One other thing that is being missed is the closer to Brexit day we move the more producers with lead times and products produced in the EU will have to start quoting prices with customs duties included. You can see all the German, French, Slovakia and Spanish car producers having to jack prices 10%.
    This will lead to another PR battle between the remainers and leavers with leavers saying buy british all the time on TV and remainers playing the victim card.

    The real question will be the order level at the EU produced cars dealerships. If they fall substantially yet UK produced models do not suffer a fall then look out for the EU to instantly become more accommodating.

    I expect there to be a campaign to buy Honda, Nissan, Mini first - buy all other EU makers last.
  • Start of common sense coming to light?

    Detlef Seif, who is the Brexit rapporteur of the CDU/CSU group in the German parliament, called for an extension on Article 50: "I consider Donald Tusk's knee-jerk rejection of new negotiations over the EU Withdrawal Treaty .. irresponsible in the current situation. There is too much at risk." Mr Seif added the vote yesterday showed that the majority of MPs in the Commons don't reject the withdrawal treaty as a whole, but just the backstop. "This is understandable in terms of domestic politics, because if the backstop comes into force, the UK would remain tied to the EU through a customs union and wouldn't be able to conclude its own trade agreements. Northern Ireland would also partially remain in the EU single market." The proposal voted through yesterday which sees an alternative to the backstop is "in domestic political terms big progress", he added. There is now much more clarity in the UK negotiating position, which there wasn't before. "In order to allow for a sensible debate and to test alternatives, an extension of the 2-year deadline of Article 50 is now inevitable. I suggest an extension until the end of 2020." "If the EU now sticks to the proposed backstop without offering any compromises, this will lead to an outcome that all sides want to avoid the most, namely a hard border in Ireland and huge risks for the northern Irish peace process. We can't allow that. Therefore I appeal urgently to all those involved to test all possible options and to allow more time for that."

  • Grabcoque would be proud of that rant. You got all his points in....

    image
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    alex. said:

    HYUFD said:

    SunnyJim said:

    I find it difficult to believe that, despite protestations to the contrary, there are a majority of MP's in parliament who would ACTUALLY take no-deal over May's deal.

    It will no doubt come down to the last hour, and will probably require some face-saving fudging BUT when it comes to the crunch a deal will get passed.

    We just have to go through the hysterical melodrama first so everybody can be satisfied they did as much as they reasonably could to move the process in their direction.

    A majority of MPs clearly oppose No Deal, 318 MPs voted to rule out No Deal last night, only 310 MPs to keep No Deal as an option.

    However a permanent Customs Union likely has more MPs behind it than May's Deal as the means to stop No Deal. 301 MPs voted for a permanent Customs Union last year, only 202 voted for May's Deal a few weeks ago. If most of the 17 Tory MPs who voted against No Deal last night switch to back a permanent Customs Union, a permanent Customs Union will almost certainly have a Commons majority and be something the EU will agree given both Juncker and Verhofstadt have said in the last few days they will only reopen negotiations for a permanent Customs Union not for removing the backstop
    The Government are not going to negotiate or implement a deal that has the support of only 17 Tory MPs, no matter how much the Commons as a whole may wish it. A bit different if the Government changes its policy and whips its MPs to support it, but that's not the same thing.
    I'd put the Tory anti no dealers much higher than 17 - could be nearer 100 or even more when push comes to shove.
    Probably correct once half the Cabinet resigns to back permanent Customs Union if May's Deal fails again
    Though if those MPs don't include May then even 100 Tory MPs won't be enough to displace May. And they're too late for Parliament to do so too.
    If Parliament votes for permanent Customs Union and half the Cabinet resigns it will be near impossible for May to stop a permanent Customs Union unless she wants to set up the biggest constitutional crisis between legislature and executive in a century which would likely lead to a successful VONC soon enough anyway
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,231

    One other thing that is being missed is the closer to Brexit day we move the more producers with lead times and products produced in the EU will have to start quoting prices with customs duties included. You can see all the German, French, Slovakia and Spanish car producers having to jack prices 10%.
    This will lead to another PR battle between the remainers and leavers with leavers saying buy british all the time on TV and remainers playing the victim card.

    The real question will be the order level at the EU produced cars dealerships. If they fall substantially yet UK produced models do not suffer a fall then look out for the EU to instantly become more accommodating.

    Why would there be a 10% tariff on incoming cars? The WTO tariff is 10%, but the UK can waive it and have a zero car tariff if it likes: it's not automatically applied.

    So. When is the UK going to pass a law to put a 10% tariff on cars?

  • Start of common sense coming to light?
    "If the EU now sticks to the proposed backstop without offering any compromises, this will lead to an outcome that all sides want to avoid the most, namely a hard border in Ireland and huge risks for the northern Irish peace process. We can't allow that. Therefore I appeal urgently to all those involved to test all possible options and to allow more time for that."

    An extension till the end of 2020?

    Just shoot me and throw my corpse in the Thames now. Get it over with.
  • HYUFD said:


    If Parliament votes for permanent Customs Union and half the Cabinet resigns it will be near impossible for May to stop a permanent Customs Union unless she wants to set up the biggest constitutional crisis between legislature and executive in a century which would likely lead to a successful VONC soon enough anyway

    Of course, a permanent customs union doesn't remove the need for a backstop, so it actually solves nothing beyond catalysing the merciful implosion of the Tories.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    viewcode said:

    One other thing that is being missed is the closer to Brexit day we move the more producers with lead times and products produced in the EU will have to start quoting prices with customs duties included. You can see all the German, French, Slovakia and Spanish car producers having to jack prices 10%.
    This will lead to another PR battle between the remainers and leavers with leavers saying buy british all the time on TV and remainers playing the victim card.

    The real question will be the order level at the EU produced cars dealerships. If they fall substantially yet UK produced models do not suffer a fall then look out for the EU to instantly become more accommodating.

    Why would there be a 10% tariff on incoming cars? The WTO tariff is 10%, but the UK can waive it and have a zero car tariff if it likes: it's not automatically applied.

    So. When is the UK going to pass a law to put a 10% tariff on cars?

    There is no such thing as a WTO tariff. Countries have tariffs and lodge them at the WTO. To stop any prospect of objections at the WTO as we move to independent status the only thing we can do is lodge a schedule of tariffs that is identical as we use today (we have done this last year), it is even priced in Euros. This is because we currently use the CET from the EU and this is what we will use day one of Brexit. The EU tariff on cars is 10%.
  • Start of common sense coming to light?

    Detlef Seif, who is the Brexit rapporteur of the CDU/CSU group in the German parliament, called for an extension on Article 50: "I consider Donald Tusk's knee-jerk rejection of new negotiations over the EU Withdrawal Treaty .. irresponsible in the current situation. There is too much at risk." Mr Seif added the vote yesterday showed that the majority of MPs in the Commons don't reject the withdrawal treaty as a whole, but just the backstop. "This is understandable in terms of domestic politics, because if the backstop comes into force, the UK would remain tied to the EU through a customs union and wouldn't be able to conclude its own trade agreements. Northern Ireland would also partially remain in the EU single market." The proposal voted through yesterday which sees an alternative to the backstop is "in domestic political terms big progress", he added. There is now much more clarity in the UK negotiating position, which there wasn't before. "In order to allow for a sensible debate and to test alternatives, an extension of the 2-year deadline of Article 50 is now inevitable. I suggest an extension until the end of 2020." "If the EU now sticks to the proposed backstop without offering any compromises, this will lead to an outcome that all sides want to avoid the most, namely a hard border in Ireland and huge risks for the northern Irish peace process. We can't allow that. Therefore I appeal urgently to all those involved to test all possible options and to allow more time for that."

    Bet Sky and BBC do not cover that
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,231

    One other thing that is being missed is the closer to Brexit day we move the more producers with lead times and products produced in the EU will have to start quoting prices with customs duties included. You can see all the German, French, Slovakia and Spanish car producers having to jack prices 10%.
    This will lead to another PR battle between the remainers and leavers with leavers saying buy british all the time on TV and remainers playing the victim card.

    The real question will be the order level at the EU produced cars dealerships. If they fall substantially yet UK produced models do not suffer a fall then look out for the EU to instantly become more accommodating.

    I expect there to be a campaign to buy Honda, Nissan, Mini first - buy all other EU makers last.
    Would it be awful of me to point out that Mini is owned by BMW?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958


    Grabcoque would be proud of that rant. You got all his points in....

    image
    Careful. One day that (Prescott) mask will slip.....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    viewcode said:

    One other thing that is being missed is the closer to Brexit day we move the more producers with lead times and products produced in the EU will have to start quoting prices with customs duties included. You can see all the German, French, Slovakia and Spanish car producers having to jack prices 10%.
    This will lead to another PR battle between the remainers and leavers with leavers saying buy british all the time on TV and remainers playing the victim card.

    The real question will be the order level at the EU produced cars dealerships. If they fall substantially yet UK produced models do not suffer a fall then look out for the EU to instantly become more accommodating.

    I expect there to be a campaign to buy Honda, Nissan, Mini first - buy all other EU makers last.
    Would it be awful of me to point out that Mini is owned by BMW?
    But made at Oxford.
  • gypsumfantasticgypsumfantastic Posts: 258
    edited January 2019


    Bet Sky and BBC do not cover that

    "Nobody important says something really stupid" isn't exactly breaking news.
  • viewcode said:

    One other thing that is being missed is the closer to Brexit day we move the more producers with lead times and products produced in the EU will have to start quoting prices with customs duties included. You can see all the German, French, Slovakia and Spanish car producers having to jack prices 10%.
    This will lead to another PR battle between the remainers and leavers with leavers saying buy british all the time on TV and remainers playing the victim card.

    The real question will be the order level at the EU produced cars dealerships. If they fall substantially yet UK produced models do not suffer a fall then look out for the EU to instantly become more accommodating.

    I expect there to be a campaign to buy Honda, Nissan, Mini first - buy all other EU makers last.
    Would it be awful of me to point out that Mini is owned by BMW?
    But made at Oxford.
    Must be rubbish then. Only rubbish in Oxford.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662

    Start of common sense coming to light?

    Detlef Seif, who is the Brexit rapporteur of the CDU/CSU group in the German parliament, called for an extension on Article 50: "I consider Donald Tusk's knee-jerk rejection of new negotiations over the EU Withdrawal Treaty .. irresponsible in the current situation. There is too much at risk." Mr Seif added the vote yesterday showed that the majority of MPs in the Commons don't reject the withdrawal treaty as a whole, but just the backstop. "This is understandable in terms of domestic politics, because if the backstop comes into force, the UK would remain tied to the EU through a customs union and wouldn't be able to conclude its own trade agreements. Northern Ireland would also partially remain in the EU single market." The proposal voted through yesterday which sees an alternative to the backstop is "in domestic political terms big progress", he added. There is now much more clarity in the UK negotiating position, which there wasn't before. "In order to allow for a sensible debate and to test alternatives, an extension of the 2-year deadline of Article 50 is now inevitable. I suggest an extension until the end of 2020." "If the EU now sticks to the proposed backstop without offering any compromises, this will lead to an outcome that all sides want to avoid the most, namely a hard border in Ireland and huge risks for the northern Irish peace process. We can't allow that. Therefore I appeal urgently to all those involved to test all possible options and to allow more time for that."

    Bet Sky and BBC do not cover that
    I suspect that the EU's 'knee-jerk rejection' is the final nail in EU-Ref 2. Even if the supporters of a People's vote could get the support they need in Parliament I would expect the EU's response (and how it is - and will be - portrayed in the media) to secure another Remain defeat.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,231

    viewcode said:

    One other thing that is being missed is the closer to Brexit day we move the more producers with lead times and products produced in the EU will have to start quoting prices with customs duties included. You can see all the German, French, Slovakia and Spanish car producers having to jack prices 10%.
    This will lead to another PR battle between the remainers and leavers with leavers saying buy british all the time on TV and remainers playing the victim card.

    The real question will be the order level at the EU produced cars dealerships. If they fall substantially yet UK produced models do not suffer a fall then look out for the EU to instantly become more accommodating.

    Why would there be a 10% tariff on incoming cars? The WTO tariff is 10%, but the UK can waive it and have a zero car tariff if it likes: it's not automatically applied.

    So. When is the UK going to pass a law to put a 10% tariff on cars?

    There is no such thing as a WTO tariff. Countries have tariffs and lodge them at the WTO. To stop any prospect of objections at the WTO as we move to independent status the only thing we can do is lodge a schedule of tariffs that is identical as we use today (we have done this last year), it is even priced in Euros. This is because we currently use the CET from the EU and this is what we will use day one of Brexit. The EU tariff on cars is 10%.
    OK, so we're going to lodge a schedule of tariffs of 10% on cars, yes? (Or am already doing so?) Am I correct that would be all foreign cars, not just the EU ones (see https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45112872).
  • TudorRose said:


    I suspect that the EU's 'knee-jerk rejection' is the final nail in EU-Ref 2. Even if the supporters of a People's vote could get the support they need in Parliament I would expect the EU's response (and how it is - and will be - portrayed in the media) to secure another Remain defeat.

    If that's true, May should go for a 2nd ref when she loses the next meaningful vote.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,920
    That's such a reassuring picture. Knowing that group of sturdy yeomen (and one yeowoman) has won, I think we can all agree everything's going to be OK, after all.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    One other thing that is being missed is the closer to Brexit day we move the more producers with lead times and products produced in the EU will have to start quoting prices with customs duties included. You can see all the German, French, Slovakia and Spanish car producers having to jack prices 10%.
    This will lead to another PR battle between the remainers and leavers with leavers saying buy british all the time on TV and remainers playing the victim card.

    The real question will be the order level at the EU produced cars dealerships. If they fall substantially yet UK produced models do not suffer a fall then look out for the EU to instantly become more accommodating.

    Why would there be a 10% tariff on incoming cars? The WTO tariff is 10%, but the UK can waive it and have a zero car tariff if it likes: it's not automatically applied.

    So. When is the UK going to pass a law to put a 10% tariff on cars?

    There is no such thing as a WTO tariff. Countries have tariffs and lodge them at the WTO. To stop any prospect of objections at the WTO as we move to independent status the only thing we can do is lodge a schedule of tariffs that is identical as we use today (we have done this last year), it is even priced in Euros. This is because we currently use the CET from the EU and this is what we will use day one of Brexit. The EU tariff on cars is 10%.
    OK, so we're going to lodge a schedule of tariffs of 10% on cars, yes? (Or am already doing so?) Am I correct that would be all foreign cars, not just the EU ones (see https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45112872).
    We have already lodged it. Yes it is all foreign cars. It is a very large incentive for South Korea for example to "grandfather" the EU-SK FTA for a couple of years to ensure their cars come in tariff free.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,836
    edited January 2019
    Cicero said:

    The Tories are going over the falls in a barrel. OK so they are taking us with them in their utterly reckless irresponsible bet. We will probably mostly emerge the other side alive. However even if we did- and it ain't certain- the fact that these B*****ds played this game and could get away with it is why we now need major political reform.

    Communist Corbyn us a useless as a chocolate teapot, May will be out of it. We now need to change utterly and do it damn quick.

    Yes. The idea that our unwritten constitution is not the envy of the world, but a collection of largely arbitrary conventions, archaic practices, and unwieldy decision making processes. That our electoral and Party system encourages the grandiose, the time serving and the idle. That pompous grandstanding is rewarded over diligent hard work, clear thought or long-term planning. That Party loyalty and advantage is prized over consensus building in the National interest.
    Some of this has been made plain.
    Reform ought to move up the agenda post-Brexit. But probably won't, because of, well, the above.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,920

    Start of common sense coming to light?

    Detlef Seif, who is the Brexit rapporteur of the CDU/CSU group in the German parliament, called for an extension on Article 50: "I consider Donald Tusk's knee-jerk rejection of new negotiations over the EU Withdrawal Treaty .. irresponsible in the current situation. There is too much at risk." Mr Seif added the vote yesterday showed that the majority of MPs in the Commons don't reject the withdrawal treaty as a whole, but just the backstop. "This is understandable in terms of domestic politics, because if the backstop comes into force, the UK would remain tied to the EU through a customs union and wouldn't be able to conclude its own trade agreements. Northern Ireland would also partially remain in the EU single market." The proposal voted through yesterday which sees an alternative to the backstop is "in domestic political terms big progress", he added. There is now much more clarity in the UK negotiating position, which there wasn't before. "In order to allow for a sensible debate and to test alternatives, an extension of the 2-year deadline of Article 50 is now inevitable. I suggest an extension until the end of 2020." "If the EU now sticks to the proposed backstop without offering any compromises, this will lead to an outcome that all sides want to avoid the most, namely a hard border in Ireland and huge risks for the northern Irish peace process. We can't allow that. Therefore I appeal urgently to all those involved to test all possible options and to allow more time for that."

    Bet Sky and BBC do not cover that
    Channel 4 News featured an interview with John Whittingdale in which he indicated that some German whose name he couldn't pronounce and a Pole had come round to the British view. Definitely getting there ...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    TudorRose said:

    Start of common sense coming to light?

    Detlef Seif, who is the Brexit rapporteur of the CDU/CSU group in the German parliament, called for an extension on Article 50: "I consider Donald Tusk's knee-jerk rejection of new negotiations over the EU Withdrawal Treaty .. irresponsible in the current situation. There is too much at risk." Mr Seif added the vote yesterday showed that the majority of MPs in the Commons don't reject the withdrawal treaty as a whole, but just the backstop. "This is understandable in terms of domestic politics, because if the backstop comes into force, the UK would remain tied to the EU through a customs union and wouldn't be able to conclude its own trade agreements. Northern Ireland would also partially remain in the EU single market." The proposal voted through yesterday which sees an alternative to the backstop is "in domestic political terms big progress", he added. There is now much more clarity in the UK negotiating position, which there wasn't before. "In order to allow for a sensible debate and to test alternatives, an extension of the 2-year deadline of Article 50 is now inevitable. I suggest an extension until the end of 2020." "If the EU now sticks to the proposed backstop without offering any compromises, this will lead to an outcome that all sides want to avoid the most, namely a hard border in Ireland and huge risks for the northern Irish peace process. We can't allow that. Therefore I appeal urgently to all those involved to test all possible options and to allow more time for that."

    Bet Sky and BBC do not cover that
    I suspect that the EU's 'knee-jerk rejection' is the final nail in EU-Ref 2. Even if the supporters of a People's vote could get the support they need in Parliament I would expect the EU's response (and how it is - and will be - portrayed in the media) to secure another Remain defeat.
    If it’s clear they want us out then “Piss off Juncker, we’re staying” could work.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,920
    dixiedean said:

    Cicero said:

    The Tories are going over the falls in a barrel. OK so they are taking us with them in their utterly reckless irresponsible bet. We will probably mostly emerge the other side alive. However even if we did- and it ain't certain- the fact that these B*****ds played this game and could get away with it is why we now need major political reform.

    Communist Corbyn us a useless as a chocolate teapot, May will be out of it. We now need to change utterly and do it damn quick.

    Yes. The idea that our unwritten constitution is not the envy of the world, but a collection of largely arbitrary conventions, archaic practices, and unwieldy decision making processes. That our electoral and Party system encourages the grandiose, the time serving and the idle. That pompous grandstanding is rewarded over diligent hard work, clear thought or long-term planning. That Party loyalty and advantage is prized over consensus building in the National interest.
    Some of this has been made plain.
    Reform ought to move up the agenda post-Brexit. But probably won't, because of, well, the above.
    Most of us were too young to recall Suez (Jack W excepted) but I wonder whether we were as much the laughing stock of the world then as we are now.
This discussion has been closed.