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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » January 2019 Local By-Elections

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited February 1 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » January 2019 Local By-Elections

Bexhill West on East Sussex (January 10th 2019) Independent 1,761 votes (52% +2% on last time) Conservative 1,071 votes (32% -1% on last time) Liberal Democrat 261 votes (8% +2% on last time) Labour 111 votes (3% -4% on last time) Green Party 107 votes (3% no candidate last time) UKIP 81 votes (2% -2% on last time) Independent HOLD with a majority of 690 (20%) on a swing of 1.5% from Con to Ind

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Comments

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 11,792
    edited February 1
    1st again Its becoming a habit
  • stodgestodge Posts: 5,495
    Not quite as near first as some.
  • All swings against the Tories.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,771
    edited February 1

    All swings against the Tories.

    And the Labour vote didn't increase in any, one static, two significantly down......
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 11,792
    Been watching Cricket.

    Its looking like a series loss to me
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 9,921
    matt said:

    Sean_F said:

    Poor girl.

    A newly qualified solicitor has been struck off after she knowingly overcharged clients when she was a trainee.

    Emily Scott joined the firm Quality Solicitors De Vita Platt in Barton-upon-Humber as a paralegal in 2010 before being taken on as a trainee in 2012. She soon found that there was very little of quality about the firm. The Solicitors Disciplinary Tribunal heard that the firms two partners, Jonathan de Vita and Christopher Platt, repeatedly ripped off a number of clients. In one instance a client was charged £52,000 for work valued at £2,500.

    Platt – who claimed he couldn’t live on less than £2,000 a week – bullied the unfortunate trainee into assisting with the fraud and, subsequently, his attempts to cover it up. Scott did not benefit financially and ultimately reported the firm to the SRA. She qualified in November 2014.


    https://www.rollonfriday.com/news-content/trainee-struck-overcharging-clients-after-being-bullied-partner

    That seems remarkably unfair to me. People should not be punished for doing the right thing.
    The fact pattern is more complicated than that - the whistleblowing came after she left, not at the time so ah has finished her TC. Recent case law doesn’t help her either.
    That's most whistleblowers though, isn't it? Once the rose tinted glasses fall and you come to your senses.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,535
    Thanks for this, Mr. Hayfield.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 7,715

    Been watching Cricket.

    Its looking like a series loss to me

    3-0 is very plausible.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 7,715
    edited February 1

    matt said:

    Sean_F said:

    Poor girl.

    A newly qualified solicitor has been struck off after she knowingly overcharged clients when she was a trainee.

    Emily Scott joined the firm Quality Solicitors De Vita Platt in Barton-upon-Humber as a paralegal in 2010 before being taken on as a trainee in 2012. She soon found that there was very little of quality about the firm. The Solicitors Disciplinary Tribunal heard that the firms two partners, Jonathan de Vita and Christopher Platt, repeatedly ripped off a number of clients. In one instance a client was charged £52,000 for work valued at £2,500.

    Platt – who claimed he couldn’t live on less than £2,000 a week – bullied the unfortunate trainee into assisting with the fraud and, subsequently, his attempts to cover it up. Scott did not benefit financially and ultimately reported the firm to the SRA. She qualified in November 2014.


    https://www.rollonfriday.com/news-content/trainee-struck-overcharging-clients-after-being-bullied-partner

    That seems remarkably unfair to me. People should not be punished for doing the right thing.
    The fact pattern is more complicated than that - the whistleblowing came after she left, not at the time so ah has finished her TC. Recent case law doesn’t help her either.
    That's most whistleblowers though, isn't it? Once the rose tinted glasses fall and you come to your senses.
    Or once you are safe from the bullies who coerced you into it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,213

    Been watching Cricket.

    Its looking like a series loss to me

    I saw the first hour or so. Broad was incredibly unlucky not to take wickets. Bad drop by Buttler, several other half chances just not going to hand, some absolutely unplayable deliveries. But its looking a bit grim now.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 7,715
    Tempting to suggest that the Lib Dems are back as best-placed to defeat the Tories in the south, but suspect that one council by-election is not enough to hang a resurgence on. They'd welcome a by-election in a Remain-voting southern Tory constituency though.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 15,563

    matt said:

    Sean_F said:

    Poor girl.

    A newly qualified solicitor has been struck off after she knowingly overcharged clients when she was a trainee.

    Emily Scott joined the firm Quality Solicitors De Vita Platt in Barton-upon-Humber as a paralegal in 2010 before being taken on as a trainee in 2012. She soon found that there was very little of quality about the firm. The Solicitors Disciplinary Tribunal heard that the firms two partners, Jonathan de Vita and Christopher Platt, repeatedly ripped off a number of clients. In one instance a client was charged £52,000 for work valued at £2,500.

    Platt – who claimed he couldn’t live on less than £2,000 a week – bullied the unfortunate trainee into assisting with the fraud and, subsequently, his attempts to cover it up. Scott did not benefit financially and ultimately reported the firm to the SRA. She qualified in November 2014.


    https://www.rollonfriday.com/news-content/trainee-struck-overcharging-clients-after-being-bullied-partner

    That seems remarkably unfair to me. People should not be punished for doing the right thing.
    The fact pattern is more complicated than that - the whistleblowing came after she left, not at the time so ah has finished her TC. Recent case law doesn’t help her either.
    That's most whistleblowers though, isn't it? Once the rose tinted glasses fall and you come to your senses.
    Or when the w/b gets away from the bully or crook, so that when the authorities come looking, he or she won't appear beside them at the water-cooler, or whatever.

    Isn't there a provision for suspension in the solicitors disciplinary process? Pharmacists can get struck off, suspended for up to a year (which may be repeated), ordered to only work under supervision and so on.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 5,495
    Afternoon all :)

    Decent LD performance in Warlingham yesterday.

    We do have a significant round of local elections in three months and the Conservatives will be defending 5,500 seats won on the night of Cameron's GE victory in 2015. That looks a tall order and it's not unreasonable to expect some losses but the scale of those losses is much harder to work out.

    We also have UKIP which gained 175 seats that night and it might be questionable how many of these will be retained.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,128
    I see Labour are popular in these parts. Nearly beaten by Green in one seat. :lol:
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 25,481
    edited February 1
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Decent LD performance in Warlingham yesterday.

    We do have a significant round of local elections in three months and the Conservatives will be defending 5,500 seats won on the night of Cameron's GE victory in 2015. That looks a tall order and it's not unreasonable to expect some losses but the scale of those losses is much harder to work out.

    We also have UKIP which gained 175 seats that night and it might be questionable how many of these will be retained.

    Lets hope for the Country's sake brexit is nearer a deal if not, having already happened on the 29th March, which should play into the locals

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,585
    DavidL said:

    Been watching Cricket.

    Its looking like a series loss to me

    I saw the first hour or so. Broad was incredibly unlucky not to take wickets. Bad drop by Buttler, several other half chances just not going to hand, some absolutely unplayable deliveries. But its looking a bit grim now.
    I decided it was over after we failed to take a wicket last night.
    The West Indies, for all their faults, have an opening pair who have actually tried to play test cricket.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,213
    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Been watching Cricket.

    Its looking like a series loss to me

    I saw the first hour or so. Broad was incredibly unlucky not to take wickets. Bad drop by Buttler, several other half chances just not going to hand, some absolutely unplayable deliveries. But its looking a bit grim now.
    I decided it was over after we failed to take a wicket last night.
    The West Indies, for all their faults, have an opening pair who have actually tried to play test cricket.
    I think England have to accept that the overlap between the skill sets of those who are very good at ODIs and test cricket is not as large as they hoped. Too many too flashy batsman who feel a desperate need to score quickly or get out.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 31,015

    Been watching Cricket.

    Did you manage to avoid nodding off? :lol:
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 2,962
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Decent LD performance in Warlingham yesterday.

    We do have a significant round of local elections in three months and the Conservatives will be defending 5,500 seats won on the night of Cameron's GE victory in 2015. That looks a tall order and it's not unreasonable to expect some losses but the scale of those losses is much harder to work out.

    We also have UKIP which gained 175 seats that night and it might be questionable how many of these will be retained.

    Is the number of UKIP seats questionable? Surely zero is nailed on
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,128
    This guy Buttigieg (mentioned on PB this am) is looking good. Relaxed. Laugh at himself a bit. Got a pitch for the rustbelt.

    His dog is called 'Truman'.



    Are we looking at the next Veep here?

    Or even more?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,585
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Been watching Cricket.

    Its looking like a series loss to me

    I saw the first hour or so. Broad was incredibly unlucky not to take wickets. Bad drop by Buttler, several other half chances just not going to hand, some absolutely unplayable deliveries. But its looking a bit grim now.
    I decided it was over after we failed to take a wicket last night.
    The West Indies, for all their faults, have an opening pair who have actually tried to play test cricket.
    I think England have to accept that the overlap between the skill sets of those who are very good at ODIs and test cricket is not as large as they hoped. Too many too flashy batsman who feel a desperate need to score quickly or get out.
    I wouldn't be quite so harsh.
    The lack of a decent opening pair unbalances the entire team, which I think would look very different indeed if only we could see off the new ball. Obviously Bairstow isn't a natural test 3 either, but I think he's making a decent fist of it, and is a class act.

    We could do with a bowler of genuine pace, too.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,128
    Cory Booker is running in case some have missed this:

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 11,792

    Been watching Cricket.

    Did you manage to avoid nodding off? :lol:
    92 runs 1wicket is not a nodding off session
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 31,015

    I see Labour are popular in these parts. Nearly beaten by Green in one seat. :lol:

    And beaten by UKIP in another! :lol:
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,015
    It's hard to tell very much on a sample of three. Clearly local councillors are being unusually quiet in their activities at present.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 31,015

    Been watching Cricket.

    Did you manage to avoid nodding off? :lol:
    92 runs 1wicket is not a nodding off session
    Yawwwwwwwnnnn
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 7,715
    edited February 1
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Been watching Cricket.

    Its looking like a series loss to me

    I saw the first hour or so. Broad was incredibly unlucky not to take wickets. Bad drop by Buttler, several other half chances just not going to hand, some absolutely unplayable deliveries. But its looking a bit grim now.
    I decided it was over after we failed to take a wicket last night.
    The West Indies, for all their faults, have an opening pair who have actually tried to play test cricket.
    I think England have to accept that the overlap between the skill sets of those who are very good at ODIs and test cricket is not as large as they hoped. Too many too flashy batsman who feel a desperate need to score quickly or get out.
    I think that's unfair on the selectors. There aren't any half-decent non-flashy players to choose from.

    This is because non-Test first class cricket is dead. All the rewards come from playing the short form. So those are the players we have.

    EDIT: Anyhow, Moeen has taken a wicket now and the collapse is on. We might yet sneak a first-innings lead!
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 8,905

    It's hard to tell very much on a sample of three. Clearly local councillors are being unusually quiet in their activities at present.

    It's going to be a quiet few months for by-elections, because it's the biggest round of local elections in May, and any that would fall due for those authorities won't be held.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,585
    On Betfair Exchange, Cory Booker is more or less the same odds as Tulsi Gabbard for the Democratic nomination..
    That is insane.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,585
    edited February 1

    Cory Booker is running in case some have missed this:

    He's a little.. unusual, but has an outside shot, I think.
    https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/02/cory-booker-running-president-2020/581797/

    Whereas Gabbard has about as much chance of getting the Democratic nomination as Donald Trump.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 15,563
    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Been watching Cricket.

    Its looking like a series loss to me

    I saw the first hour or so. Broad was incredibly unlucky not to take wickets. Bad drop by Buttler, several other half chances just not going to hand, some absolutely unplayable deliveries. But its looking a bit grim now.
    I decided it was over after we failed to take a wicket last night.
    The West Indies, for all their faults, have an opening pair who have actually tried to play test cricket.
    I think England have to accept that the overlap between the skill sets of those who are very good at ODIs and test cricket is not as large as they hoped. Too many too flashy batsman who feel a desperate need to score quickly or get out.
    I wouldn't be quite so harsh.
    The lack of a decent opening pair unbalances the entire team, which I think would look very different indeed if only we could see off the new ball. Obviously Bairstow isn't a natural test 3 either, but I think he's making a decent fist of it, and is a class act.

    We could do with a bowler of genuine pace, too.
    I think that's right. OD cricket does bring a habit of urgency, and that's not what is required in a Test opener, although the Windies play a lot of OD and they seem to making a decent fist of it. TBH, I thought calling up Denly wasn't a bad idea, although he hasn't opened a lot lately. Can't imagine they'll call up Essex' other opener, Browne, but he must be moving towards the frame, given the alternatives.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 15,563
    And just as I'd written that, wicket at last.
  • Someone at the CJEU has a real sense of humour.

    image
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,128
    Nigelb said:

    Cory Booker is running in case some have missed this:

    He's a little.. unusual, but has an outside shot, I think.
    https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/02/cory-booker-running-president-2020/581797/

    Whereas Gabbard has about as much chance of getting the Democratic nomination as Donald Trump.
    What happened to Hickenloop? OGH was quite keen iirc.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,771
    That they received 0 complaints suggests their targeting algorithms must have been rather smart.....
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,214

    Nigelb said:

    Cory Booker is running in case some have missed this:

    He's a little.. unusual, but has an outside shot, I think.
    https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/02/cory-booker-running-president-2020/581797/

    Whereas Gabbard has about as much chance of getting the Democratic nomination as Donald Trump.
    What happened to Hickenloop? OGH was quite keen iirc.
    He's in the mix but not one of the big boys and girls.

    https://www.denverpost.com/2019/01/31/john-hickenlooper-moderate-presidential-candidate/
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,408

    Someone at the CJEU has a real sense of humour.

    image

    I wonder what the severance package is like?
  • Someone at the CJEU has a real sense of humour.

    image

    I wonder what the severance package is like?
    It is part of the 39 billion !!!!!!
  • Windies 155 for 4 - bit better
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 3,838
    edited February 1

    I think that's unfair on the selectors. There aren't any half-decent non-flashy players to choose from.

    This is because non-Test first class cricket is dead.

    Sadly, I agree. I went to a Middx game at Lords in the summer. Gorgeous hot day, match in the balance, the county game at its finest and only a fiver to get in. And the crowd? Apart from the bacon & egg tie brigade, it was me, a family having a picnic who didn't stay long, and a couple of dozen old geezers getting away from the wife. It was very tranquil and mellow, I thoroughly enjoyed it, but I got a strong sense that I was doing something, rather like voting Liberal Democrat, that nobody at all would be doing ten years from now. Hope I'm wrong about both those things.

    EDIT: We'll be winning this test match - and the series. It's the Windies.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 3,622

    Someone at the CJEU has a real sense of humour.

    image

    I just love to see reminders of what a mongrel nation the British are.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,062
    Scott_P said:
    I presume China, Russia and Cuba fall outside the “we oppose all..” statement.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,128
    Seems Booker has been doing a lot of ground work:

    https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/01/cory-booker-2020-election-1141619
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 11,792
    Has TM sorted the Back Stop yet??

    #CorbynsCustomsUnion
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 27,664

    Been watching Cricket.

    Did you manage to avoid nodding off? :lol:
    Do you find chess boring? Because cricket is like a physical version of the game.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,015

    Has TM sorted the Back Stop yet??

    #CorbynsCustomsUnion

    You need a better hashtag.

    #CorbynsCustomsConcordProtocol

    or

    #CCCP for short.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,771

    Has TM sorted the Back Stop yet??

    #CorbynsCustomsUnion

    You can tellit's Corbyn's idea, because it would be the wankiest possible outcome from Brexit.....
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 26,286

    All swings against the Tories.

    Really? Three elections, two of which had Independent councillors.

    Beware of extrapolation from small datasets.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 11,792
    AndyJS said:

    Been watching Cricket.

    Did you manage to avoid nodding off? :lol:
    Do you find chess boring? Because cricket is like a physical version of the game.
    Teas are rubbish in Chess
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 9,547
    edited February 1
    Deleted
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 26,286

    Tempting to suggest that the Lib Dems are back as best-placed to defeat the Tories in the south, but suspect that one council by-election is not enough to hang a resurgence on. They'd welcome a by-election in a Remain-voting southern Tory constituency though.

    Maybe Zac Goldsmith could resign over Heathrow again?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,535
    Mr. 1000, to be fair, he did resign, rather than hiding in Afghanistan.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 23,213
    Scott_P said:
    Jeremy Hunt hasn't called for sanctions on Venezuela, but presumably Corbyn is too thick to understand that. Alternatively he's not too thick, which would be even more alarming.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 26,286

    Mr. 1000, to be fair, he did resign, rather than hiding in Afghanistan.

    You'll notice that I was restrained and didn't call a name, for once.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 9,921
    rcs1000 said:

    All swings against the Tories.

    Really? Three elections, two of which had Independent councillors.

    Beware of extrapolation from small datasets.
    #justTSEthings
  • rcs1000 said:

    All swings against the Tories.

    Really? Three elections, two of which had Independent councillors.

    Beware of extrapolation from small datasets.
    We all know we can extrapolate from council by elections as well as we can from Scottish subsamples.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,488
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Decent LD performance in Warlingham yesterday.

    We do have a significant round of local elections in three months and the Conservatives will be defending 5,500 seats won on the night of Cameron's GE victory in 2015. That looks a tall order and it's not unreasonable to expect some losses but the scale of those losses is much harder to work out.

    We also have UKIP which gained 175 seats that night and it might be questionable how many of these will be retained.

    UKIP wipeout almost nailed on, barring some unforeseen Brexit development.

    Tory losses nailed on: the question is whether simply losses or a collapse.
  • 1st like Maduro.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,488
    Government officials are preparing to deal with “putrefying stockpiles” of rubbish in the event of a no-deal Brexit, according to documents leaked to the Guardian.

    If the UK leaves the EU on 29 March without a deal, export licences for millions of tonnes of waste will become invalid overnight. The Environment Agency (EA) officials said leaking stockpiles could cause pollution.

    The EA is also concerned that if farmers cannot export beef and lamb a backlog of livestock on farms could cause liquid manure stores to overflow. A senior MP said the problems could cause a public health and environmental pollution emergency. An EA source said: “It could all get very ugly, very quickly.”
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,488
    The risk of border gridlock caused by no-deal Brexit has led British manufacturers to ramp up their stockpiling efforts to the highest levels on record for a major advanced economy.

    According to the monthly snapshot from IHS Markit and the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply, which is closely watched by the Bank of England and the Treasury for early warning signs from the UK economy, British factories in January raised their stocks at the fastest pace since records began in the early 1990s.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 648

    Scott_P said:
    Jeremy Hunt hasn't called for sanctions on Venezuela, but presumably Corbyn is too thick to understand that. Alternatively he's not too thick, which would be even more alarming.
    Jeremy's solution for all international problems is discussion and compromise. But he refuses to extend such a strategy to domestic problems. Which is why a Labour led coalition under his leadership as the present polls would indicate is unviable.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,562
    FPT on the extension of A50 by two years. If that happens you can pretty much write off us ever leaving. We would become reverse Turkey, who are still a candidate country after 50 years.

    To be honest I think any extension beyond a technical one of 2 months will eventually lead to us not leaving. Very easy to just say "we need more time" as each deadline approaches.

    As it's looking like a second referendum is dead for the time being, I think remainer types will eventually fall into line behind May's deal. It offers a transition period, which is ideal for anyone wanting to campaign on a "it's not too late to cancel Brexit and rejoin" platform. Things may look very different in 2020, and the EU could obviously make it easy for us to abandon the transition and regain membership, if they desired.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 5,793
    IanB2 said:

    Government officials are preparing to deal with “putrefying stockpiles” of rubbish in the event of a no-deal Brexit, according to documents leaked to the Guardian.

    If the UK leaves the EU on 29 March without a deal, export licences for millions of tonnes of waste will become invalid overnight. The Environment Agency (EA) officials said leaking stockpiles could cause pollution.

    The EA is also concerned that if farmers cannot export beef and lamb a backlog of livestock on farms could cause liquid manure stores to overflow. A senior MP said the problems could cause a public health and environmental pollution emergency. An EA source said: “It could all get very ugly, very quickly.”

    Here is the link
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/01/revealed-plan-to-deal-with-putrefying-stockpiles-of-rubbish-after-no-deal-brexit

    Must admit this is a Brexit effect I was entirely unaware of.
  • Fenman said:

    Scott_P said:
    Jeremy Hunt hasn't called for sanctions on Venezuela, but presumably Corbyn is too thick to understand that. Alternatively he's not too thick, which would be even more alarming.
    Jeremy's solution for all international problems is discussion and compromise. But he refuses to extend such a strategy to domestic problems. Which is why a Labour led coalition under his leadership as the present polls would indicate is unviable.
    TBF, international realpolitik means discussion and compromise with insane theocrats, dictators with nuclear weapons and terrorist insurgencies, but not Jeremy Corbyn.

    A line has to be drawn *somewhere*.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,488

    FPT on the extension of A50 by two years. If that happens you can pretty much write off us ever leaving. We would become reverse Turkey, who are still a candidate country after 50 years.

    To be honest I think any extension beyond a technical one of 2 months will eventually lead to us not leaving. Very easy to just say "we need more time" as each deadline approaches.

    As it's looking like a second referendum is dead for the time being, I think remainer types will eventually fall into line behind May's deal. It offers a transition period, which is ideal for anyone wanting to campaign on a "it's not too late to cancel Brexit and rejoin" platform. Things may look very different in 2020, and the EU could obviously make it easy for us to abandon the transition and regain membership, if they desired.

    After nearly three years of chaos arising from leading Brexiters not having any sort of plan, abandoning the whole escapade as a horrendous mistake is quite obviously both the most sensible and the least damaging outcome. The question is how we get there.

    The significance of any delay is that it shatters Mrs May's repeated insistence that the UK is leaving the EU on the 29 March. Once the government's commitments are shown to be worthless it opens the door for a more genuine discussion about quite why we would want to continue any further down this path towards ridicule, isolation and self harm.
  • IanB2 said:


    Government officials are preparing to deal with “putrefying stockpiles” of rubbish

    Funny, that's Chris Grayling's nickname.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 26,286
    IanB2 said:

    The risk of border gridlock caused by no-deal Brexit has led British manufacturers to ramp up their stockpiling efforts to the highest levels on record for a major advanced economy.

    According to the monthly snapshot from IHS Markit and the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply, which is closely watched by the Bank of England and the Treasury for early warning signs from the UK economy, British factories in January raised their stocks at the fastest pace since records began in the early 1990s.

    I've been talking about this for a while: the prospect of No Deal is leading firms to increase their inventory levels. Rising inventories show up as gross capital formation in GDP calculations, and add to GDP growth. This will have boosted Q4 slightly, and will boost Q1 meaningfully.

    Irrespective of whether we leave with or without a deal, Q2 will see this unwind somewhat. (Indeed, unless inventories continue to expand at the current pace, GDP *growth* will soften from this factor alone.)
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,227
    matt said:

    Scott_P said:
    I presume China, Russia and Cuba fall outside the “we oppose all..” statement.
    Usual UK , poking its nose in and trying to upset democratic decisions to suit its purpose or as US lapdog. Beggar the plebs to get the elected government out, despicable.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 9,547

    IanB2 said:


    Government officials are preparing to deal with “putrefying stockpiles” of rubbish

    Funny, that's Chris Grayling's nickname.
    [email protected]
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,227
    IanB2 said:

    Government officials are preparing to deal with “putrefying stockpiles” of rubbish in the event of a no-deal Brexit, according to documents leaked to the Guardian.

    If the UK leaves the EU on 29 March without a deal, export licences for millions of tonnes of waste will become invalid overnight. The Environment Agency (EA) officials said leaking stockpiles could cause pollution.

    The EA is also concerned that if farmers cannot export beef and lamb a backlog of livestock on farms could cause liquid manure stores to overflow. A senior MP said the problems could cause a public health and environmental pollution emergency. An EA source said: “It could all get very ugly, very quickly.”

    So we will be starving and up to our knees in manure, lovely.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,488
    Much of the US is now facing the fastest warm up in history, as unusually low polar vortex temperatures are replaced by seasonally above average warmth. For example north Kentucky was -13 C last night and is forecast for +19 C by Sunday.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 26,286
    IanB2 said:

    Much of the US is now facing the fastest warm up in history, as unusually low polar vortex temperatures are replaced by seasonally above average warmth. For example north Kentucky was -13 C last night and is forecast for +19 C by Sunday.

    So, what you're saying is buy aggregates?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 3,838


    Funny, that's Chris Grayling's nickname.

    Please stop 'punching down'.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,213
    malcolmg said:

    IanB2 said:

    Government officials are preparing to deal with “putrefying stockpiles” of rubbish in the event of a no-deal Brexit, according to documents leaked to the Guardian.

    If the UK leaves the EU on 29 March without a deal, export licences for millions of tonnes of waste will become invalid overnight. The Environment Agency (EA) officials said leaking stockpiles could cause pollution.

    The EA is also concerned that if farmers cannot export beef and lamb a backlog of livestock on farms could cause liquid manure stores to overflow. A senior MP said the problems could cause a public health and environmental pollution emergency. An EA source said: “It could all get very ugly, very quickly.”

    So we will be starving and up to our knees in manure, lovely.
    Just a wild theory but just maybe we could slaughter the beasts and, you know, eat them, resulting in a marked reduction in manure production. I'm up for that.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 11,792
    viewcode said:

    IanB2 said:


    Government officials are preparing to deal with “putrefying stockpiles” of rubbish

    Funny, that's Chris Grayling's nickname.
    [email protected]
    [email protected]
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,213
    IanB2 said:

    Much of the US is now facing the fastest warm up in history, as unusually low polar vortex temperatures are replaced by seasonally above average warmth. For example north Kentucky was -13 C last night and is forecast for +19 C by Sunday.

    That is genuinely weird. 30 degree difference in 2 days? Incredible
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 783
    malcolmg said:

    matt said:

    Scott_P said:
    I presume China, Russia and Cuba fall outside the “we oppose all..” statement.
    Usual UK , poking its nose in and trying to upset democratic decisions to suit its purpose or as US lapdog. Beggar the plebs to get the elected government out, despicable.
    hi malcolm,

    how was warhorse?

    went to see MQ of S but was very disappointed. leading actresses were good but the script/editing left me quite bored to be honest. I was more interested trying to identify the locations they used (which I did pretty well on I think). and I was amused by the travelling scenes that had so few extras they could have almost have been out of monty python with a man with a couple of coconuts pretending to be the horse. of course this could have been historically accurate.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 4,433

    AndyJS said:

    Been watching Cricket.

    Did you manage to avoid nodding off? :lol:
    Do you find chess boring? Because cricket is like a physical version of the game.
    Teas are rubbish in Chess
    I know nothing about cricket but I've just been invited to Lord’s for the England v Ireland test 24 – 26 July (day 1 to 3). Is it likely to be exciting?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,488
    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    Much of the US is now facing the fastest warm up in history, as unusually low polar vortex temperatures are replaced by seasonally above average warmth. For example north Kentucky was -13 C last night and is forecast for +19 C by Sunday.

    That is genuinely weird. 30 degree difference in 2 days? Incredible
    Yep. I think Chicago will be -18 to +12. A lot of snow is going to melt very quickly.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,488
    Barnesian said:

    AndyJS said:

    Been watching Cricket.

    Did you manage to avoid nodding off? :lol:
    Do you find chess boring? Because cricket is like a physical version of the game.
    Teas are rubbish in Chess
    I know nothing about cricket but I've just been invited to Lord’s for the England v Ireland test 24 – 26 July (day 1 to 3). Is it likely to be exciting?
    Take a good book, a smartphone, and some strong drink.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 3,622
    malcolmg said:

    IanB2 said:

    Government officials are preparing to deal with “putrefying stockpiles” of rubbish in the event of a no-deal Brexit, according to documents leaked to the Guardian.

    If the UK leaves the EU on 29 March without a deal, export licences for millions of tonnes of waste will become invalid overnight. The Environment Agency (EA) officials said leaking stockpiles could cause pollution.

    The EA is also concerned that if farmers cannot export beef and lamb a backlog of livestock on farms could cause liquid manure stores to overflow. A senior MP said the problems could cause a public health and environmental pollution emergency. An EA source said: “It could all get very ugly, very quickly.”

    So we will be starving and up to our knees in manure, lovely.
    I like the comment of Mary Creagh MP:
    “EA officials should not carry the can for the failings of government to get a deal through ..."
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 3,838
    malcolmg said:


    So we will be starving and up to our knees in manure, lovely.

    This is becoming like the mega hype from Hollywood for a massive blockbuster of a horror film starring BIG NAME and coming to a cinema near you on 30th March!

    And of course it works. You end up gagging to see it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,488
    kinabalu said:

    malcolmg said:


    So we will be starving and up to our knees in manure, lovely.

    This is becoming like the mega hype from Hollywood for a massive blockbuster of a horror film starring BIG NAME and coming to a cinema near you on 30th March!

    And of course it works. You end up gagging to see it.
    I'd go and see it, but I'd rather not be in it.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 4,433
    IanB2 said:

    Barnesian said:

    AndyJS said:

    Been watching Cricket.

    Did you manage to avoid nodding off? :lol:
    Do you find chess boring? Because cricket is like a physical version of the game.
    Teas are rubbish in Chess
    I know nothing about cricket but I've just been invited to Lord’s for the England v Ireland test 24 – 26 July (day 1 to 3). Is it likely to be exciting?
    Take a good book, a smartphone, and some strong drink.
    Hmm. I take that as a no. I didn't know Ireland played cricket. I knew they played rugby quite well.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,488
    Barnesian said:

    IanB2 said:

    Barnesian said:

    AndyJS said:

    Been watching Cricket.

    Did you manage to avoid nodding off? :lol:
    Do you find chess boring? Because cricket is like a physical version of the game.
    Teas are rubbish in Chess
    I know nothing about cricket but I've just been invited to Lord’s for the England v Ireland test 24 – 26 July (day 1 to 3). Is it likely to be exciting?
    Take a good book, a smartphone, and some strong drink.
    Hmm. I take that as a no. I didn't know Ireland played cricket. I knew they played rugby quite well.
    tbf I can't comment on Ireland, I was just thinking about cricket in general. They'll be running back and forth all day and it'll probably be a draw at the end and I was just concerned that you had something worthwhile to do.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 18,815
    malcolmg said:

    matt said:

    Scott_P said:
    I presume China, Russia and Cuba fall outside the “we oppose all..” statement.
    Usual UK , poking its nose in and trying to upset democratic decisions to suit its purpose or as US lapdog. Beggar the plebs to get the elected government out, despicable.
    If you really think that is what is happening in Venezuela then you are utterly out of touch. The starving population has nothing to do with foreign involvement at all and everything to do with a lunatic socialist government which seems to be trying very hard to replicate the famine policies of 1930s Soviet Union.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 11,792
    Barnesian said:

    AndyJS said:

    Been watching Cricket.

    Did you manage to avoid nodding off? :lol:
    Do you find chess boring? Because cricket is like a physical version of the game.
    Teas are rubbish in Chess
    I know nothing about cricket but I've just been invited to Lord’s for the England v Ireland test 24 – 26 July (day 1 to 3). Is it likely to be exciting?
    Hospitality will be fantastic
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 9,006
    Barnesian said:

    IanB2 said:

    Barnesian said:

    AndyJS said:

    Been watching Cricket.

    Did you manage to avoid nodding off? :lol:
    Do you find chess boring? Because cricket is like a physical version of the game.
    Teas are rubbish in Chess
    I know nothing about cricket but I've just been invited to Lord’s for the England v Ireland test 24 – 26 July (day 1 to 3). Is it likely to be exciting?
    Take a good book, a smartphone, and some strong drink.
    Hmm. I take that as a no. I didn't know Ireland played cricket. I knew they played rugby quite well.
    You'll love it - a great day out.

    But if you're still not sure I'd be happy to step in to take your place. :smile:
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 23,213
    Fenman said:

    Scott_P said:
    Jeremy Hunt hasn't called for sanctions on Venezuela, but presumably Corbyn is too thick to understand that. Alternatively he's not too thick, which would be even more alarming.
    Jeremy's solution for all international problems is discussion and compromise. But he refuses to extend such a strategy to domestic problems. Which is why a Labour led coalition under his leadership as the present polls would indicate is unviable.
    That's a very interesting point.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,523
    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    IanB2 said:

    Government officials are preparing to deal with “putrefying stockpiles” of rubbish in the event of a no-deal Brexit, according to documents leaked to the Guardian.

    If the UK leaves the EU on 29 March without a deal, export licences for millions of tonnes of waste will become invalid overnight. The Environment Agency (EA) officials said leaking stockpiles could cause pollution.

    The EA is also concerned that if farmers cannot export beef and lamb a backlog of livestock on farms could cause liquid manure stores to overflow. A senior MP said the problems could cause a public health and environmental pollution emergency. An EA source said: “It could all get very ugly, very quickly.”

    So we will be starving and up to our knees in manure, lovely.
    Just a wild theory but just maybe we could slaughter the beasts and, you know, eat them, resulting in a marked reduction in manure production. I'm up for that.
    Precisely.

    The whole story seems like a load of bullshit.

    (I'll get my coat)
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 3,838
    IanB2 said:


    I'd go and see it, but I'd rather not be in it.

    😊

    Directed by Jean Claude Juncker, produced by Jacob Rees Mogg and starring Ordinary Decent British People.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,523
    Fenman said:

    Scott_P said:
    Jeremy Hunt hasn't called for sanctions on Venezuela, but presumably Corbyn is too thick to understand that. Alternatively he's not too thick, which would be even more alarming.
    Jeremy's solution for all international problems is discussion and compromise. But he refuses to extend such a strategy to domestic problems. Which is why a Labour led coalition under his leadership as the present polls would indicate is unviable.
    Is it really?

    What discussion and compromise has he ever had or proposed with Israel?

    I think Occam's razor applies and Corbyn is simply genuinely friends with the likes of Venezuela, Iran, Russia, Hamas etc.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 5,495

    Fenman said:

    Jeremy's solution for all international problems is discussion and compromise. But he refuses to extend such a strategy to domestic problems. Which is why a Labour led coalition under his leadership as the present polls would indicate is unviable.

    That's a very interesting point.
    I realise the very prospect is anathema to many on here but I'm forced to consider as the Conservatives implode the prospect of Labour getting back into office and Jeremy Corbyn returning from the Palace as Prime Minister?

    My first thought is he won't be a micro-manager like May and I suspect the day-to-day business of Government will be left to John McDonnell who I think will be much more in the tradition of Labour "iron" Chancellors. Those who try to go round him through Corbyn will get short shrift.

    Corbyn will take more interest in foreign policy but to be fair the Prime Minister is really the FS in modern times - from Robin Cook onwards, the FS has really been a cipher with the real power at No. 10 (and sometimes No.11).

    I also suspect he won't enjoy it at all.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,060
    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    IanB2 said:

    Government officials are preparing to deal with “putrefying stockpiles” of rubbish in the event of a no-deal Brexit, according to documents leaked to the Guardian.

    If the UK leaves the EU on 29 March without a deal, export licences for millions of tonnes of waste will become invalid overnight. The Environment Agency (EA) officials said leaking stockpiles could cause pollution.

    The EA is also concerned that if farmers cannot export beef and lamb a backlog of livestock on farms could cause liquid manure stores to overflow. A senior MP said the problems could cause a public health and environmental pollution emergency. An EA source said: “It could all get very ugly, very quickly.”

    So we will be starving and up to our knees in manure, lovely.
    Just a wild theory but just maybe we could slaughter the beasts and, you know, eat them, resulting in a marked reduction in manure production. I'm up for that.
    That does seem like the obvious solution.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 1,354
    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    Much of the US is now facing the fastest warm up in history, as unusually low polar vortex temperatures are replaced by seasonally above average warmth. For example north Kentucky was -13 C last night and is forecast for +19 C by Sunday.

    That is genuinely weird. 30 degree difference in 2 days? Incredible
    Yep. I think Chicago will be -18 to +12. A lot of snow is going to melt very quickly.
    The sound was down, but I think there was a similarly freakish day to day max temperature change in Melbourne the other week, in the +40 to +10 range (or vice versa).
  • stodgestodge Posts: 5,495
    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    Much of the US is now facing the fastest warm up in history, as unusually low polar vortex temperatures are replaced by seasonally above average warmth. For example north Kentucky was -13 C last night and is forecast for +19 C by Sunday.

    That is genuinely weird. 30 degree difference in 2 days? Incredible
    Yep. I think Chicago will be -18 to +12. A lot of snow is going to melt very quickly.
    That's what a continental climate does for you. The nearest UK equivalent is when a heatwave breaks down - the day temperature can fall from 30c (86F in old money) to 15c (59F) which is pretty dramatic but our normal temperate climate doesn't lend itself to wild swings.

  • DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    Much of the US is now facing the fastest warm up in history, as unusually low polar vortex temperatures are replaced by seasonally above average warmth. For example north Kentucky was -13 C last night and is forecast for +19 C by Sunday.

    That is genuinely weird. 30 degree difference in 2 days? Incredible
    Take soem to beet this though]

    "The largest recorded temperature change in one place over a 24-hour period occurred on January 15, 1972 in Loma, Montana, when the temperature rose from −54 to 49 °F (−47.8 to 9.4 °C). The most dramatic temperature changes occur in North American climates susceptible to Chinook winds." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_temperature_extremes
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,213
    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    IanB2 said:

    Government officials are preparing to deal with “putrefying stockpiles” of rubbish in the event of a no-deal Brexit, according to documents leaked to the Guardian.

    If the UK leaves the EU on 29 March without a deal, export licences for millions of tonnes of waste will become invalid overnight. The Environment Agency (EA) officials said leaking stockpiles could cause pollution.

    The EA is also concerned that if farmers cannot export beef and lamb a backlog of livestock on farms could cause liquid manure stores to overflow. A senior MP said the problems could cause a public health and environmental pollution emergency. An EA source said: “It could all get very ugly, very quickly.”

    So we will be starving and up to our knees in manure, lovely.
    Just a wild theory but just maybe we could slaughter the beasts and, you know, eat them, resulting in a marked reduction in manure production. I'm up for that.
    That does seem like the obvious solution.
    Perhaps not to Guardian readers, in fairness.
This discussion has been closed.