Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour’s Next Leader: Dawn Butler at 100/1?

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited February 2 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour’s Next Leader: Dawn Butler at 100/1?

Identifying Labour’s future leaders used to be a relatively easy job, certainly when compared against the Tories. Gaitskell, Wilson, Callaghan, Smith and Brown were all clearly identifiable as strong contenders five years or more before they took on the job. Blair, at that same distance, could have been seen (rightly, as it turned out), as a future potential leader but not the next one. Kinnock and Ed Miliband were a little harder to pick but both were up and coming cabinet or shadow cabinet members at times when a generational jump was to be expected. Even Foot was a heavyweight, if one whose time, after Callaghan’s win in 1976, looked to have passed.

Read the full story here


«134

Comments

  • dotsdots Posts: 615
    edited February 2
    First! Like heads.

    Thanks David. That leader will give us nightmares. How are we supposed to sleep now? 🙃
  • Interesting article David.
  • dotsdots Posts: 615
    edited February 2

    Interesting article David.

    It has a ring of truth. Like a siren call away from the good ship wanting to believe what we want to believe. Uplands of Ice and Danger for many. And the stuff of dreams to Toby Young.

    Googled pictures of Butty geeg for face recognition. Looks a bit too AC/DC for a POTUS. South Bend is a pretty cool name for a place though.

    Eye. As in paper, has EU commission already surrendered to May’s request and pressuring Ireland to surrender too as the lead on the climb down on backstop has to come from them. meanwhile the Labour rebel group who will help Mays deal through parliament when it is next put to vote have grown from little under twenty to something over forty in last week, according to the sun. And that all has a ring of truth too, Labour leaderships laissez-faire approach to this winters brexit challenge is beginning to undermine and splinter the Labour Party now.

    Sunday before last, when number ten decided to tough it out and slice the ball back over net into Dublin and EUs court is now looking like the moment the game changed. May clearly now on course to win this.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,344
    Seems like good odds for her, I could imagine voting for her in the right circumstances.

    As for the 5 favourites, I'm pretty sure McDonnell has said he wouldn't stand for leader (mentioned health) him and Keir are men, which is a factor against them given all the talk about Labour having a woman leader. Keir possibly isn't as charismatic as some of the other candidates which could make a difference as well.

    Thornberry might not get the votes of the most demanding left wing Labour members but in Labour leadership races votes transfer over from candidates so if everyone to her right had been eliminated she could have most of the votes from her own base and those to the right of it. I think the next Labour leader will win the leadership race from the left but that doesn't necessarily mean they will be the most left wing candidate. Her, Rayner and Long-Bailey do seem like potential next leaders.

    Hard to judge as there are any number of circumstances leading up to a change in Labour leadership.
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 793
    I have always felt that Dawn Butler's job at PMQs is to serve as Corbyn's co-star for the video snippets that are circulated amongst the relevant circles. She has a canny ability of expressing disgust at the baby-eaters opposite, and solemnly shaking here head at anything that sounds like sound economics. I'm sure that some will find her convincing.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,733
    Isn't DB the one who did a Rory Stewart and made up her own facts on R4? They both have an equal chance of leading their respective parties: zero.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 11,390
    Gadfly said:

    I have always felt that Dawn Butler's job at PMQs is to serve as Corbyn's co-star for the video snippets that are circulated amongst the relevant circles. She has a canny ability of expressing disgust at the baby-eaters opposite, and solemnly shaking here head at anything that sounds like sound economics. I'm sure that some will find her convincing.

    I've always assumed she sits next to Corbyn because she's black and she's a woman. But David might be right when he says those two facts could work to her advantage in a leadership contest.
  • I've no idea who Dawn Butler is, what she does, what she stands for
  • Dawn Butler definitely won't run for leader. She might have been put up for deputy as a candidate to run against Angela Rayner if there had been an additional deputy post created. For a reasonably large odds candidate who is very close to the leadership look no further than Laura Pidcock (33/1). If Jeremy reshuffles soon she could move into the Shadow Cabinet. It depends how long Jeremy is leader for. The longer it is the better the chance it will be Laura Pidcock who succeeds him - or at least runs as the candidate of the left.
  • Dawn Butler definitely won't run for leader. She might have been put up for deputy as a candidate to run against Angela Rayner if there had been an additional deputy post created. For a reasonably large odds candidate who is very close to the leadership look no further than Laura Pidcock (33/1). If Jeremy reshuffles soon she could move into the Shadow Cabinet. It depends how long Jeremy is leader for. The longer it is the better the chance it will be Laura Pidcock who succeeds him - or at least runs as the candidate of the left.

    I got in trouble for calling Pillock a Pidcock on Facebook, so I won't repeat the same mistake* here
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,213
    Yvette Cooper has had a fairly good Brexit. She is much more high profile than almost any of the shadow cabinet. If Corbyn goes in defeat after an election is it not possible that the membership would go for competency and electability again?

    If Corbyn retires to the allotment at a time of his own choosing he will have a lot of say about his successor but not in defeat. It all depends on when and how.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,213
    Dura_Ace said:

    Isn't DB the one who did a Rory Stewart and made up her own facts on R4? They both have an equal chance of leading their respective parties: zero.

    Rory is almost certainly going to have to resign later this year as the prisons remain in ferment. Whilst there is a quaint novelty about a politician owning and accepting responsibility for a policy it is not without risk. He has been excellent in the Brexit debate, a far more articulate supporter of May’s policy than May herself but he has got little thanks. I can see him resigning honourably and moving on to something else.
  • DavidL said:

    Yvette Cooper has had a fairly good Brexit. She is much more high profile than almost any of the shadow cabinet. If Corbyn goes in defeat after an election is it not possible that the membership would go for competency and electability again?

    If Corbyn retires to the allotment at a time of his own choosing he will have a lot of say about his successor but not in defeat. It all depends on when and how.

    But Cooper is a Tory. Apparently. Just as the BBC edited PMQs on iPlayer to cut 15 seconds of Jeremy beating Theresa. Apparently.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,213

    DavidL said:

    Yvette Cooper has had a fairly good Brexit. She is much more high profile than almost any of the shadow cabinet. If Corbyn goes in defeat after an election is it not possible that the membership would go for competency and electability again?

    If Corbyn retires to the allotment at a time of his own choosing he will have a lot of say about his successor but not in defeat. It all depends on when and how.

    But Cooper is a Tory. Apparently. Just as the BBC edited PMQs on iPlayer to cut 15 seconds of Jeremy beating Theresa. Apparently.
    What she seriously lacked the last time she stood was a clear and compelling vision of what she believed and what she wanted for the country and the party. I don’t think she would make that mistake again. Vision was something Corbyn offered in spades. None of the centre right did so. They had become too technocratic under Blair/ Brown.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,488
    On topic: unlikely.

    Off topic: So British Airways will become non-British after Brexit. Well done leavers - a real result. Take back control!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,227
    DavidL said:

    Yvette Cooper has had a fairly good Brexit. She is much more high profile than almost any of the shadow cabinet. If Corbyn goes in defeat after an election is it not possible that the membership would go for competency and electability again?

    If Corbyn retires to the allotment at a time of his own choosing he will have a lot of say about his successor but not in defeat. It all depends on when and how.

    David, Only problem is that she has shown herself to be crap as a minister and same when leadership came up. If that is Labour's future then even the Tory Donkeys could keep beating them.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 20,479

    DavidL said:

    Yvette Cooper has had a fairly good Brexit. She is much more high profile than almost any of the shadow cabinet. If Corbyn goes in defeat after an election is it not possible that the membership would go for competency and electability again?

    If Corbyn retires to the allotment at a time of his own choosing he will have a lot of say about his successor but not in defeat. It all depends on when and how.

    But Cooper is a Tory. Apparently. Just as the BBC edited PMQs on iPlayer to cut 15 seconds of Jeremy beating Theresa. Apparently.
    Surely Corbyn is the Tory:

    1) Brought up in a 7-bed mansion and privately educated;

    2) Owes his political career to his family connections;

    3) Is a big supporter of Fascist regimes abroad;

    4) Takes money from the poor and gives it to his mates;

    5) Doesn't have a clue about life outside London;

    6) Is nearer 80 than 50;

    7) Promotes his mates rather than people of talent;

    8) Is supported by big organisations in industry (although UNITE won't thank me for calling them that)!

    9) Opposes Scottish and Welsh nationalism;

    10) Is plainly a Brexiteer no matter what lip-service he pays to the benefits of the EU.

    OK, I jest, but the point is anyone could be a Tory if you stretch the definition a touch.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 20,479
    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    Yvette Cooper has had a fairly good Brexit. She is much more high profile than almost any of the shadow cabinet. If Corbyn goes in defeat after an election is it not possible that the membership would go for competency and electability again?

    If Corbyn retires to the allotment at a time of his own choosing he will have a lot of say about his successor but not in defeat. It all depends on when and how.

    David, Only problem is that she has shown herself to be crap as a minister and same when leadership came up.
    Since when has that been a barrier to high office?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,227
    DavidL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Isn't DB the one who did a Rory Stewart and made up her own facts on R4? They both have an equal chance of leading their respective parties: zero.

    Rory is almost certainly going to have to resign later this year as the prisons remain in ferment. Whilst there is a quaint novelty about a politician owning and accepting responsibility for a policy it is not without risk. He has been excellent in the Brexit debate, a far more articulate supporter of May’s policy than May herself but he has got little thanks. I can see him resigning honourably and moving on to something else.
    David, he is still useless, one can only hope he has a redeeming feature of some principles and falls on his sword, though it would be a miracle and first Tory for many a year to have any.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,227
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Yvette Cooper has had a fairly good Brexit. She is much more high profile than almost any of the shadow cabinet. If Corbyn goes in defeat after an election is it not possible that the membership would go for competency and electability again?

    If Corbyn retires to the allotment at a time of his own choosing he will have a lot of say about his successor but not in defeat. It all depends on when and how.

    But Cooper is a Tory. Apparently. Just as the BBC edited PMQs on iPlayer to cut 15 seconds of Jeremy beating Theresa. Apparently.
    Surely Corbyn is the Tory:

    1) Brought up in a 7-bed mansion and privately educated;

    2) Owes his political career to his family connections;

    3) Is a big supporter of Fascist regimes abroad;

    4) Takes money from the poor and gives it to his mates;

    5) Doesn't have a clue about life outside London;

    6) Is nearer 80 than 50;

    7) Promotes his mates rather than people of talent;

    8) Is supported by big organisations in industry (although UNITE won't thank me for calling them that)!

    9) Opposes Scottish and Welsh nationalism;

    10) Is plainly a Brexiteer no matter what lip-service he pays to the benefits of the EU.

    OK, I jest, but the point is anyone could be a Tory if you stretch the definition a touch.
    Morning Ydoethur, you missed on main point :smile:

    11) Is a nasty unprincipled lying toerag
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,344
    DavidL said:

    Yvette Cooper has had a fairly good Brexit. She is much more high profile than almost any of the shadow cabinet. If Corbyn goes in defeat after an election is it not possible that the membership would go for competency and electability again?

    If Corbyn retires to the allotment at a time of his own choosing he will have a lot of say about his successor but not in defeat. It all depends on when and how.

    I was going to make a point about electibility and Corbyn (admittedly this is with the addition of a hypothetical where he loses an election in the future which changes things) or a twist on it but I've realised for the sake of this argument it doesn't actually matter whether it is true or not. Labour members don't make the same right of Labour = electable and left of Labour = unelectable calculation many Conservative supporters do. They also don't think right of Labour = competent or left of Labour = incompetent.

    How much this would change in the case of a loss is a difficult calculation but I would point to those on the right of Labour who haven't had their minds changed by electoral defeats. I would also point to the aftermath of the defeat of Ed Miliband where to many on the right Labours problem was being too left wing, Labour members didn't vote in a way that agreed with this.

    It depends on what exactly happens and why Labour members think it happens. In terms of my own thoughts Corbyn will have taken a lot of the hits which makes the job of a left wing successor much easier. MPs and media* who constantly go after them for left wing policies will be priced in and say in terms of Labour MPs become the usual rebels rather than a shocking new thing. The infrastructure and support base largely in place pulling to the left and many MPs much more willing to go along with left wing policies and those who want to attack or oppose the left much more marginalised (within Labour)

    If Corbyn lost the next leader, even if they were the same in terms of left - right political views and foreign policy and the rest they would just have a much easier time of it.

    *Obviously much of the right wing press has often attacked Labour leaders but even if they maintained the current stepped up viciousness it would be priced in.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 11,252


    Virginia govenor is calling press conference today.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,751

    DavidL said:

    Yvette Cooper has had a fairly good Brexit. She is much more high profile than almost any of the shadow cabinet. If Corbyn goes in defeat after an election is it not possible that the membership would go for competency and electability again?

    If Corbyn retires to the allotment at a time of his own choosing he will have a lot of say about his successor but not in defeat. It all depends on when and how.

    I was going to make a point about electibility and Corbyn (admittedly this is with the addition of a hypothetical where he loses an election in the future which changes things) or a twist on it but I've realised for the sake of this argument it doesn't actually matter whether it is true or not. Labour members don't make the same right of Labour = electable and left of Labour = unelectable calculation many Conservative supporters do. They also don't think right of Labour = competent or left of Labour = incompetent.

    How much this would change in the case of a loss is a difficult calculation but I would point to those on the right of Labour who haven't had their minds changed by electoral defeats. I would also point to the aftermath of the defeat of Ed Miliband where to many on the right Labours problem was being too left wing, Labour members didn't vote in a way that agreed with this.

    It depends on what exactly happens and why Labour members think it happens. In terms of my own thoughts Corbyn will have taken a lot of the hits which makes the job of a left wing successor much easier. MPs and media* who constantly go after them for left wing policies will be priced in and say in terms of Labour MPs become the usual rebels rather than a shocking new thing. The infrastructure and support base largely in place pulling to the left and many MPs much more willing to go along with left wing policies and those who want to attack or oppose the left much more marginalised (within Labour)

    If Corbyn lost the next leader, even if they were the same in terms of left - right political views and foreign policy and the rest they would just have a much easier time of it.

    *Obviously much of the right wing press has often attacked Labour leaders but even if they maintained the current stepped up viciousness it would be priced in.
    The only thing Cooper has ever done was to introduce the disastrous HIPS..
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,771
    Cooper had a good Brexit? Not good enough to convince a largely anti-Brexit HoC to support her largely anti-Brexit motion this week.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 20,479
    edited February 2
    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Yvette Cooper has had a fairly good Brexit. She is much more high profile than almost any of the shadow cabinet. If Corbyn goes in defeat after an election is it not possible that the membership would go for competency and electability again?

    If Corbyn retires to the allotment at a time of his own choosing he will have a lot of say about his successor but not in defeat. It all depends on when and how.

    But Cooper is a Tory. Apparently. Just as the BBC edited PMQs on iPlayer to cut 15 seconds of Jeremy beating Theresa. Apparently.
    Surely Corbyn is the Tory:

    1) Brought up in a 7-bed mansion and privately educated;

    2) Owes his political career to his family connections;

    3) Is a big supporter of Fascist regimes abroad;

    4) Takes money from the poor and gives it to his mates;

    5) Doesn't have a clue about life outside London;

    6) Is nearer 80 than 50;

    7) Promotes his mates rather than people of talent;

    8) Is supported by big organisations in industry (although UNITE won't thank me for calling them that)!

    9) Opposes Scottish and Welsh nationalism;

    10) Is plainly a Brexiteer no matter what lip-service he pays to the benefits of the EU.

    OK, I jest, but the point is anyone could be a Tory if you stretch the definition a touch.
    Morning Ydoethur, you missed on main point :smile:

    11) Is a nasty unprincipled lying toerag
    You're right. That was careless given how obvious it is!

    Edit - but we both missed 'is antisemitic!'
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,942
    Rayner or Burgon.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 20,479
    Jonathan said:

    Rayner or Burgon.

    If Richard Burgon is the answer, what was the question?!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,488
    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Rayner or Burgon.

    If Richard Burgon is the answer, what was the question?!
    Rhetorical.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,488

    DavidL said:

    Yvette Cooper has had a fairly good Brexit. She is much more high profile than almost any of the shadow cabinet. If Corbyn goes in defeat after an election is it not possible that the membership would go for competency and electability again?

    If Corbyn retires to the allotment at a time of his own choosing he will have a lot of say about his successor but not in defeat. It all depends on when and how.

    I was going to make a point about electibility and Corbyn (admittedly this is with the addition of a hypothetical where he loses an election in the future which changes things) or a twist on it but I've realised for the sake of this argument it doesn't actually matter whether it is true or not. Labour members don't make the same right of Labour = electable and left of Labour = unelectable calculation many Conservative supporters do. They also don't think right of Labour = competent or left of Labour = incompetent.

    How much this would change in the case of a loss is a difficult calculation but I would point to those on the right of Labour who haven't had their minds changed by electoral defeats. I would also point to the aftermath of the defeat of Ed Miliband where to many on the right Labours problem was being too left wing, Labour members didn't vote in a way that agreed with this.

    It depends on what exactly happens and why Labour members think it happens. In terms of my own thoughts Corbyn will have taken a lot of the hits which makes the job of a left wing successor much easier. MPs and media* who constantly go after them for left wing policies will be priced in and say in terms of Labour MPs become the usual rebels rather than a shocking new thing. The infrastructure and support base largely in place pulling to the left and many MPs much more willing to go along with left wing policies and those who want to attack or oppose the left much more marginalised (within Labour)

    If Corbyn lost the next leader, even if they were the same in terms of left - right political views and foreign policy and the rest they would just have a much easier time of it.

    *Obviously much of the right wing press has often attacked Labour leaders but even if they maintained the current stepped up viciousness it would be priced in.
    The only thing Cooper has ever done was to introduce the disastrous HIPS..
    It is true that the things she touches don't seem to turn out well ( ;) )
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,535
    Good morning, my fellow frost giants.

    Depressingly plausible suggestion. May stick on a tiny sum.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 20,479
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Rayner or Burgon.

    If Richard Burgon is the answer, what was the question?!
    Rhetorical.
    Incidentally Ian, can I ask why you are flagging every comment on cricket as off-topic?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,411
    Dawn Butler? Perhaps. She's no certainty but 100/1 shots rarely are. She's an attractive speaker; there's a touch of charisma there. Richard Burgon gets a throwaway mention in the OP and as a Cambridge-educated lawyer, might expect support from at least one pb thread-writer. ;) Yvette Cooper is a solid but not inspirational performer. Emily Thornberry at least gives the impression she wants the job, which is an important consideration, since there are many plausible contenders but they won't all stand, and 6/1 would be a fair price if the contest were tomorrow but it isn't.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,771
    edited February 2
    How can anyone think Long-Drop-Bailey could lead a political party? Not after Ian Duncan-Smith stole all her charisma....and Diana Abbott stole her numeracy.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,535
    Oh, and rather good comeback for Wales last night. Didn't see it all, but was quite the turn around.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,562
    Interesting article, largely agree although I think Emily Thornberry has come across better than suggested here. She's put in a few good PMQs performances, so far she hasn't crossed the leadership or the membership, while also not being seen as a rabid Corbynista. Foreign Secretary is a bit of a nothing job these days so don't think lack of impact there can be held against her.

    What are Diane Abbott's odds? While she's not exactly taken seriously in the country at large that didn't stop labour electing Corbyn in 2015. Think she would be more likely than some of the other lesser known names here
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,462
    DavidL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Isn't DB the one who did a Rory Stewart and made up her own facts on R4? They both have an equal chance of leading their respective parties: zero.

    Rory is almost certainly going to have to resign later this year as the prisons remain in ferment. Whilst there is a quaint novelty about a politician owning and accepting responsibility for a policy it is not without risk. He has been excellent in the Brexit debate, a far more articulate supporter of May’s policy than May herself but he has got little thanks. I can see him resigning honourably and moving on to something else.
    Yes, he displays a talent that is all too rare on the front benches.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,462
    Good tip by David.

    I’ll be looking into this.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 20,479

    Long-Drop-Bailey.

    Are you saying her price is too short and will come to a sudden stop, while anyone who bets on her will be hung up?

    More seriously, what I have against her is that she is very rude, very arrogant and clearly not very bright. She is a typical unpleasant student politician who believes the world owes her a living and is wrong. She just happens to have got a seat in Parliament.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 8,935
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Yvette Cooper has had a fairly good Brexit. She is much more high profile than almost any of the shadow cabinet. If Corbyn goes in defeat after an election is it not possible that the membership would go for competency and electability again?

    If Corbyn retires to the allotment at a time of his own choosing he will have a lot of say about his successor but not in defeat. It all depends on when and how.

    But Cooper is a Tory. Apparently. Just as the BBC edited PMQs on iPlayer to cut 15 seconds of Jeremy beating Theresa. Apparently.
    What she seriously lacked the last time she stood was a clear and compelling vision of what she believed and what she wanted for the country and the party. I don’t think she would make that mistake again. Vision was something Corbyn offered in spades. None of the centre right did so. They had become too technocratic under Blair/ Brown.
    And that is why people like me voted for Jezza.

    The Vision Thing.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 15,563

    Oh, and rather good comeback for Wales last night. Didn't see it all, but was quite the turn around.

    Rather like three or four years ago against Ireland. Ireland were all over Wales in the first half of the first game; totally different side (although the same people) came out in the second and nearly took the game back. Went on to do very well IIRC!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,942
    Nominations

    Starmer
    Thornberry
    Rayner
    Burgon
    Pidcock

    ——

    Winner depends on who Len and Momentum prefer.

    Best hope for Labour is one turns out to be a Kinnock like reformer.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 24,318
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Yvette Cooper has had a fairly good Brexit. She is much more high profile than almost any of the shadow cabinet. If Corbyn goes in defeat after an election is it not possible that the membership would go for competency and electability again?

    If Corbyn retires to the allotment at a time of his own choosing he will have a lot of say about his successor but not in defeat. It all depends on when and how.

    But Cooper is a Tory. Apparently. Just as the BBC edited PMQs on iPlayer to cut 15 seconds of Jeremy beating Theresa. Apparently.
    What she seriously lacked the last time she stood was a clear and compelling vision of what she believed and what she wanted for the country and the party. I don’t think she would make that mistake again. Vision was something Corbyn offered in spades. None of the centre right did so. They had become too technocratic under Blair/ Brown.
    You think she has a clear and compelling vision?

    Or she won’t make the mistake of standing again?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 24,318
    IanB2 said:

    On topic: unlikely.

    Off topic: So British Airways will become non-British after Brexit. Well done leavers - a real result. Take back control!

    IAG is already based in Madrid
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 11,252
    Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    On topic: unlikely.

    Off topic: So British Airways will become non-British after Brexit. Well done leavers - a real result. Take back control!

    IAG is already based in Madrid
    Has IAG's ludicrous ownership structure been sorted out with regards to its compliance with EU law yet?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 20,479
    Jonathan said:

    Nominations

    Starmer
    Thornberry
    Rayner
    Burgon
    Pidcock

    ——

    Winner depends on who Len and Momentum prefer.

    Best hope for Labour is one turns out to be a Kinnock like reformer.

    I can see how Thornberry might. The others? Forget it. Three of them need reforming and one of them has no imagination.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 24,318
    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Yvette Cooper has had a fairly good Brexit. She is much more high profile than almost any of the shadow cabinet. If Corbyn goes in defeat after an election is it not possible that the membership would go for competency and electability again?

    If Corbyn retires to the allotment at a time of his own choosing he will have a lot of say about his successor but not in defeat. It all depends on when and how.

    But Cooper is a Tory. Apparently. Just as the BBC edited PMQs on iPlayer to cut 15 seconds of Jeremy beating Theresa. Apparently.
    Surely Corbyn is the Tory:

    1) Brought up in a 7-bed mansion and privately educated;

    2) Owes his political career to his family connections;

    3) Is a big supporter of Fascist regimes abroad;

    4) Takes money from the poor and gives it to his mates;

    5) Doesn't have a clue about life outside London;

    6) Is nearer 80 than 50;

    7) Promotes his mates rather than people of talent;

    8) Is supported by big organisations in industry (although UNITE won't thank me for calling them that)!

    9) Opposes Scottish and Welsh nationalism;

    10) Is plainly a Brexiteer no matter what lip-service he pays to the benefits of the EU.

    OK, I jest, but the point is anyone could be a Tory if you stretch the definition a touch.
    Morning Ydoethur, you missed on main point :smile:

    11) Is a nasty unprincipled lying toerag
    You're right. That was careless given how obvious it is!

    Edit - but we both missed 'is antisemitic!'
    Tories aren't anti-Semitic and it isn’t s leading indicator
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 24,318
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Rayner or Burgon.

    If Richard Burgon is the answer, what was the question?!
    Rhetorical.
    Incidentally Ian, can I ask why you are flagging every comment on cricket as off-topic?
    To spam @rcs1000
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,942
    edited February 2
    Burgon GMB
    Rayner Unison
    Butler GMB

    Puts them at a disadvantage. Who is Len’s candidate?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 24,318
    Alistair said:

    Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    On topic: unlikely.

    Off topic: So British Airways will become non-British after Brexit. Well done leavers - a real result. Take back control!

    IAG is already based in Madrid
    Has IAG's ludicrous ownership structure been sorted out with regards to its compliance with EU law yet?
    I’ve no idea but I’m sure they are working on it
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 20,479
    edited February 2
    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Yvette Cooper has had a fairly good Brexit. She is much more high profile than almost any of the shadow cabinet. If Corbyn goes in defeat after an election is it not possible that the membership would go for competency and electability again?

    If Corbyn retires to the allotment at a time of his own choosing he will have a lot of say about his successor but not in defeat. It all depends on when and how.

    But Cooper is a Tory. Apparently. Just as the BBC edited PMQs on iPlayer to cut 15 seconds of Jeremy beating Theresa. Apparently.
    Surely Corbyn is the Tory:

    1) Brought up in a 7-bed mansion and privately educated;

    2) Owes his political career to his family connections;

    3) Is a big supporter of Fascist regimes abroad;

    4) Takes money from the poor and gives it to his mates;

    5) Doesn't have a clue about life outside London;

    6) Is nearer 80 than 50;

    7) Promotes his mates rather than people of talent;

    8) Is supported by big organisations in industry (although UNITE won't thank me for calling them that)!

    9) Opposes Scottish and Welsh nationalism;

    10) Is plainly a Brexiteer no matter what lip-service he pays to the benefits of the EU.

    OK, I jest, but the point is anyone could be a Tory if you stretch the definition a touch.
    Morning Ydoethur, you missed on main point :smile:

    11) Is a nasty unprincipled lying toerag
    You're right. That was careless given how obvious it is!

    Edit - but we both missed 'is antisemitic!'
    Tories aren't anti-Semitic and it isn’t s leading indicator
    Don't tell me that. Tell Labour!

    (Originally I was going to say 'and is racist' but I thought many angels would dance on heads of pins if I did that.)
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,751

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Yvette Cooper has had a fairly good Brexit. She is much more high profile than almost any of the shadow cabinet. If Corbyn goes in defeat after an election is it not possible that the membership would go for competency and electability again?

    If Corbyn retires to the allotment at a time of his own choosing he will have a lot of say about his successor but not in defeat. It all depends on when and how.

    But Cooper is a Tory. Apparently. Just as the BBC edited PMQs on iPlayer to cut 15 seconds of Jeremy beating Theresa. Apparently.
    What she seriously lacked the last time she stood was a clear and compelling vision of what she believed and what she wanted for the country and the party. I don’t think she would make that mistake again. Vision was something Corbyn offered in spades. None of the centre right did so. They had become too technocratic under Blair/ Brown.
    And that is why people like me voted for Jezza.

    The Vision Thing.
    I feel sad for you. Corbyn's vision is that we should be like Venezuela.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 8,935
    I fear that the next Labour leadership election will be like recent CLP officer elections - the incompetent candidate who says 'l support Jezza' beating those much more able who dare to deviate from 100% orthodoxy.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,344
    Jonathan said:

    Burgon GMB
    Rayner Unison
    Butler GMB

    Puts them at a disadvantage. Who is Len’s candidate?

    Laura Pidcock, Unite.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 8,935

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Yvette Cooper has had a fairly good Brexit. She is much more high profile than almost any of the shadow cabinet. If Corbyn goes in defeat after an election is it not possible that the membership would go for competency and electability again?

    If Corbyn retires to the allotment at a time of his own choosing he will have a lot of say about his successor but not in defeat. It all depends on when and how.

    But Cooper is a Tory. Apparently. Just as the BBC edited PMQs on iPlayer to cut 15 seconds of Jeremy beating Theresa. Apparently.
    What she seriously lacked the last time she stood was a clear and compelling vision of what she believed and what she wanted for the country and the party. I don’t think she would make that mistake again. Vision was something Corbyn offered in spades. None of the centre right did so. They had become too technocratic under Blair/ Brown.
    And that is why people like me voted for Jezza.

    The Vision Thing.
    I feel sad for you. Corbyn's vision is that we should be like Venezuela.
    However the vision of the other three appeared to be to lose the next election on an ideas-less manifesto.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 5,526
    edited February 2
    I shouldn't complain about tokenism as I'd pick the women on looks, but apart from being unpopular, it's an insult to any genuinely able candidate. However, Mr Herdson makes a good point. It's also popular with Momentum and many of the Corbynites. It didn't go well with Hillary, but that's America.

    Unless they pick Ms Onasanya, it might play well enough with their members.

    I suspect it depends on how Corbyn is toppled … or resigns.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,344

    I fear that the next Labour leadership election will be like recent CLP officer elections - the incompetent candidate who says 'l support Jezza' beating those much more able who dare to deviate from 100% orthodoxy.

    Presumably it would be I supported Jezza if it is a leadership election...

    Which presumably would apply to quite a few of the potential candidates mentioned, only someone he specifically nominated say could claim something extra from it outside of people like McDonnell and Abbot who I can't see standing for it anyway.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    Yvette Cooper has had a fairly good Brexit. She is much more high profile than almost any of the shadow cabinet. If Corbyn goes in defeat after an election is it not possible that the membership would go for competency and electability again?

    If Corbyn retires to the allotment at a time of his own choosing he will have a lot of say about his successor but not in defeat. It all depends on when and how.

    David, Only problem is that she has shown herself to be crap as a minister and same when leadership came up. If that is Labour's future then even the Tory Donkeys could keep beating them.
    Cooper is the sort of politician why we are on the road to brexit,she is a open border globalist just like her idol Blair.

    She only listens to what's good in her points of view,her constituents can go jump.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 20,479

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Yvette Cooper has had a fairly good Brexit. She is much more high profile than almost any of the shadow cabinet. If Corbyn goes in defeat after an election is it not possible that the membership would go for competency and electability again?

    If Corbyn retires to the allotment at a time of his own choosing he will have a lot of say about his successor but not in defeat. It all depends on when and how.

    But Cooper is a Tory. Apparently. Just as the BBC edited PMQs on iPlayer to cut 15 seconds of Jeremy beating Theresa. Apparently.
    What she seriously lacked the last time she stood was a clear and compelling vision of what she believed and what she wanted for the country and the party. I don’t think she would make that mistake again. Vision was something Corbyn offered in spades. None of the centre right did so. They had become too technocratic under Blair/ Brown.
    And that is why people like me voted for Jezza.

    The Vision Thing.
    I feel sad for you. Corbyn's vision is that we should be like Venezuela.
    However the vision of the other three appeared to be to lose the next election on an ideas-less manifesto.
    Well, you can't say Corbyn had no ideas. The fact they veered from the unrealistic to the surreal is a different problem.

    He still however lost the election.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,344

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    Yvette Cooper has had a fairly good Brexit. She is much more high profile than almost any of the shadow cabinet. If Corbyn goes in defeat after an election is it not possible that the membership would go for competency and electability again?

    If Corbyn retires to the allotment at a time of his own choosing he will have a lot of say about his successor but not in defeat. It all depends on when and how.

    David, Only problem is that she has shown herself to be crap as a minister and same when leadership came up. If that is Labour's future then even the Tory Donkeys could keep beating them.
    Cooper is the sort of politician why we are on the road to brexit,she is a open border globalist just like her idol Blair.

    She only listens to what's good in her points of view,her constituents can go jump.
    Cooper was actually one who was bringing up concerns regarding immigration even before the vote to Leave, it doesn't seem to come across to people who aren't really that interested in Labour politics but there are plenty of those on the right of the Labour party who have made noises about immigration, the mug didn't appear out of nowhere. It is a large driver of the Eurosceptic views of many of those on the right of the party. Stephen Bush (possibly Steve Richards as well) has pointed out that all the 2015 candidates were eurosceptic to a degree.

    The image of various groups in Labour seems to be driven by head figures, so lots of Labour MPs on the right, aside from obviously different ones like John Mann tend to get grouped as having views like Blair, others like Corbyn with a huge amount of the nuance lost between it.

    People on all sides are guilty of this and those within Labour who know better encourage it, attacking your opponents by grouping them as Blairite or Far left has its uses in propaganda terms but doesn't actually work when assessing individual MPs views and distorts the views of outsiders.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 1,532
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Yvette Cooper has had a fairly good Brexit. She is much more high profile than almost any of the shadow cabinet. If Corbyn goes in defeat after an election is it not possible that the membership would go for competency and electability again?

    If Corbyn retires to the allotment at a time of his own choosing he will have a lot of say about his successor but not in defeat. It all depends on when and how.

    But Cooper is a Tory. Apparently. Just as the BBC edited PMQs on iPlayer to cut 15 seconds of Jeremy beating Theresa. Apparently.
    What she seriously lacked the last time she stood was a clear and compelling vision of what she believed and what she wanted for the country and the party. I don’t think she would make that mistake again. Vision was something Corbyn offered in spades. None of the centre right did so. They had become too technocratic under Blair/ Brown.
    And that is why people like me voted for Jezza.

    The Vision Thing.
    I feel sad for you. Corbyn's vision is that we should be like Venezuela.
    However the vision of the other three appeared to be to lose the next election on an ideas-less manifesto.
    Well, you can't say Corbyn had no ideas. The fact they veered from the unrealistic to the surreal is a different problem.

    He still however lost the election.
    And he lost it to an ideas less manifesto and charisma free politician
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,344
    edited February 2

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Yvette Cooper has had a fairly good Brexit. She is much more high profile than almost any of the shadow cabinet. If Corbyn goes in defeat after an election is it not possible that the membership would go for competency and electability again?

    If Corbyn retires to the allotment at a time of his own choosing he will have a lot of say about his successor but not in defeat. It all depends on when and how.

    But Cooper is a Tory. Apparently. Just as the BBC edited PMQs on iPlayer to cut 15 seconds of Jeremy beating Theresa. Apparently.
    What she seriously lacked the last time she stood was a clear and compelling vision of what she believed and what she wanted for the country and the party. I don’t think she would make that mistake again. Vision was something Corbyn offered in spades. None of the centre right did so. They had become too technocratic under Blair/ Brown.
    And that is why people like me voted for Jezza.

    The Vision Thing.
    I feel sad for you. Corbyn's vision is that we should be like Venezuela.
    However the vision of the other three appeared to be to lose the next election on an ideas-less manifesto.
    Well, you can't say Corbyn had no ideas. The fact they veered from the unrealistic to the surreal is a different problem.

    He still however lost the election.
    And he lost it to an ideas less manifesto and charisma free politician
    Not many on the left think the others would have produced a hung parliament and a winnable election map from the next (after 2015) election. As Stephen Bush put it (relistened to a podcast after the election the other day) 2017 GE result was along the lines of the best Labour could hope for after the 2015 election.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 1,532
    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Nominations

    Starmer
    Thornberry
    Rayner
    Burgon
    Pidcock

    ——

    Winner depends on who Len and Momentum prefer.

    Best hope for Labour is one turns out to be a Kinnock like reformer.

    I can see how Thornberry might. The others? Forget it. Three of them need reforming and one of them has no imagination.
    The only one I would vote is Starmer, and Cooper who is not on the list. Pidcock and Burgon are thick as two short planks. Rayner sounds like she is thick two short planks, and Thornberry doesn’t have the common touch. She is more like a Tory if you know what I mean.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,931
    I think the premise of the header is incorrect. Leaders change when either they are discredited or unpopular with the members, so the endorsement of the outgoing leader counts for little, and may even be a mark against.

    Leaders change when members want change, and often radical change. That is how Jezza got elected, but the lesson is that after Jezza departs the party may well want a different direction. Electability for example.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,227

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Yvette Cooper has had a fairly good Brexit. She is much more high profile than almost any of the shadow cabinet. If Corbyn goes in defeat after an election is it not possible that the membership would go for competency and electability again?

    If Corbyn retires to the allotment at a time of his own choosing he will have a lot of say about his successor but not in defeat. It all depends on when and how.

    But Cooper is a Tory. Apparently. Just as the BBC edited PMQs on iPlayer to cut 15 seconds of Jeremy beating Theresa. Apparently.
    What she seriously lacked the last time she stood was a clear and compelling vision of what she believed and what she wanted for the country and the party. I don’t think she would make that mistake again. Vision was something Corbyn offered in spades. None of the centre right did so. They had become too technocratic under Blair/ Brown.
    And that is why people like me voted for Jezza.

    The Vision Thing.
    Cooper is dull , boring , no vision , policies etc, ie useless.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,227
    Dura_Ace said:
    Morons, could not run a bath.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 20,479
    Foxy said:

    I think the premise of the header is incorrect. Leaders change when either they are discredited or unpopular with the members, so the endorsement of the outgoing leader counts for little, and may even be a mark against.

    Leaders change when members want change, and often radical change. That is how Jezza got elected, but the lesson is that after Jezza departs the party may well want a different direction. Electability for example.

    Except this year Corbyn is 70, and although he is undoubtedly very fit and energetic that is of course an age where things may suddenly start to go wrong for no obvious reason. He may well leave due to age or infirmity, in which case his endorsement becomes very important.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 1,532

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Yvette Cooper has had a fairly good Brexit. She is much more high profile than almost any of the shadow cabinet. If Corbyn goes in defeat after an election is it not possible that the membership would go for competency and electability again?
    .

    But Cooper is a Tory. Apparently. Just as the BBC edited PMQs on iPlayer to cut 15 seconds of Jeremy beating Theresa. Apparently.
    What she seriously lacked the last time she stood was a clear and compelling vision of what she believed and what she wanted for the country and the party. I don’t think she would make that mistake again. Vision was something Corbyn offered in spades. None of the centre right did so. They had become too technocratic under Blair/ Brown.
    And that is why people like me voted for Jezza.

    The Vision Thing.
    I feel sad for you. Corbyn's vision is that we should be like Venezuela.
    However the vision of the other three appeared to be to lose the next election on an ideas-less manifesto.
    Well, you can't say Corbyn had no ideas. The fact they veered from the unrealistic to the surreal is a different problem.

    He still however lost the election.
    And he lost it to an ideas less manifesto and charisma free politician
    Not many on the left think the others would have produced a hung parliament and a winnable election map from the next (after 2015) election. As Stephen Bush put it (relistened to a podcast after the election the other day) 2017 GE result was along the lines of the best Labour could hope for after the 2015 election.
    Yes but he has a free hit as no one thought he was going to win - that won’t happen again. Secondly if you are in any way Anti Tory and anti Brexit, and May starts her campaign 20 points ahead in polls and is going to blast through a hard Brexit it motivates you to vote for the other guy. We saw that in the very high support for two main parties. Things like Corbyn not being able to decide on a Brexit policy because as one Tory said he wants to appear Leave in North and Remain in South, and anti semitism issues, and deselection of moderates, will push that borrowed support away. If May is replaced by anyone vaguely competent then the Tories should avoid the problems of last time. I am hopeful for a new semi competent Libdem leader which could mean that a number of seats across the South could be gained.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,227

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Nominations

    Starmer
    Thornberry
    Rayner
    Burgon
    Pidcock

    ——

    Winner depends on who Len and Momentum prefer.

    Best hope for Labour is one turns out to be a Kinnock like reformer.

    I can see how Thornberry might. The others? Forget it. Three of them need reforming and one of them has no imagination.
    The only one I would vote is Starmer, and Cooper who is not on the list. Pidcock and Burgon are thick as two short planks. Rayner sounds like she is thick two short planks, and Thornberry doesn’t have the common touch. She is more like a Tory if you know what I mean.
    Starmer at lease sounds competent and is able to string words together.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,733
    Foxy said:

    I think the premise of the header is incorrect. Leaders change when either they are discredited or unpopular with the members, so the endorsement of the outgoing leader counts for little, and may even be a mark against.

    Leaders change when members want change, and often radical change. That is how Jezza got elected, but the lesson is that after Jezza departs the party may well want a different direction. Electability for example.

    The next labour leader is going to have to be a) absolutely 100% a woman and b) cynical enough to tack even further left than Jezza as the post-Brexit culture war will be at unprecedented levels of ferocity by then. That's why Thornberry is the deserved favourite.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,160
    On topic, they're all a bit crap but there's certainly value in covering a few long shots at this stage. Someone needs to be the next leader of the Labour party and the longer Corbyn goes, the more likely it'll be a bolter.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,771

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Nominations

    Starmer
    Thornberry
    Rayner
    Burgon
    Pidcock

    ——

    Winner depends on who Len and Momentum prefer.

    Best hope for Labour is one turns out to be a Kinnock like reformer.

    I can see how Thornberry might. The others? Forget it. Three of them need reforming and one of them has no imagination.
    The only one I would vote is Starmer, and Cooper who is not on the list. Pidcock and Burgon are thick as two short planks. Rayner sounds like she is thick two short planks, and Thornberry doesn’t have the common touch. She is more like a Tory if you know what I mean.
    Starmer sports a faintly bemused look, like someone at a snowy bus-stop holding their arm out at every large vehicle that goes past, unable to comprehend that the Second Referendum bus service has been cancelled due to adverse conditions.

    His credibility as taken a huge knock. He signed up for Jeremy's Circus, hoping one day to be Ringmaster. But his no-show at number 10 this week, when Corbyn went to talk Brexit without his Shadow Brexit Minister, shows that Starmer is just another anonymous member of the clown troupe.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 3,622
    Dura_Ace said:
    What I love about this site is the in-depth analysis, and particularly the way people set aside their own political predilections to examine the issues objectively.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,344

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:


    .

    And he lost it to an ideas less manifesto and charisma free politician
    Not many on the left think the others would have produced a hung parliament and a winnable election map from the next (after 2015) election. As Stephen Bush put it (relistened to a podcast after the election the other day) 2017 GE result was along the lines of the best Labour could hope for after the 2015 election.
    Yes but he has a free hit as no one thought he was going to win - that won’t happen again. Secondly if you are in any way Anti Tory and anti Brexit, and May starts her campaign 20 points ahead in polls and is going to blast through a hard Brexit it motivates you to vote for the other guy. We saw that in the very high support for two main parties. Things like Corbyn not being able to decide on a Brexit policy because as one Tory said he wants to appear Leave in North and Remain in South, and anti semitism issues, and deselection of moderates, will push that borrowed support away. If May is replaced by anyone vaguely competent then the Tories should avoid the problems of last time. I am hopeful for a new semi competent Libdem leader which could mean that a number of seats across the South could be gained.
    The anti semitism accusations where there before as well, the voters only voted Labour because they knew they wouldn't win line gets a regular airing but seems to have little in the way of evidence behind it, without evidence it appears more like wishful thinking than anything else.

    The moderates were going at Corbyn much harder and the Corbyn lot back before, if anything the fight is calmer now. Danczuk is an example there in terms of actual deselections if they happen.

    Brexit was a huge driver of Tory support but in polls featured far lower in Labour voters reasons, which is an advantage for Labour come the next election.

    Although this all seems to be about a future election, whereas the original post seemed to be criticising someone for voting Corbyn for electoral reasons when the others would have had to have done amazingly to match it, they would have likely done worse.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 12,787
    I agree with the general drift of David's piece, though like Henry Manson I don't think Dawn will be a candidate or win. One point of disagreement is that I think you can forget the idea of Corbyn endorsing anyone - he is very consistently keen on deferring to the membership and not taking any kind of "follow me, chaps!" line. People will make inferences about his preferences and they may or may not be right, but he won't say.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,015
    On topic, in an open market like this it is usually right to lay the favourites and back a few longshots. You will probably be able to trade effectively later.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 15,397
    'if the Tories have already replaced May and done so with a non-white candidate of their own, as is very possible.'

    We're constantly told that gammon is a racist term, would a candidate from that race qualify?

    On topic, I quite like Lisa Nandy though she may not possess the necessary shamelessness or appeal for the tankies at the moment. Next but one?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 3,838
    I agree with DH, there is no way on this earth that Dawn Butler should be 100/1 for next Labour leader. When I set my device to spool through 100 possible futures she takes over from Jeremy in 3 of them - so that's more like a 33/1 shot. 100/1 is great value. Fill your boots.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 15,397

    I agree with the general drift of David's piece, though like Henry Manson I don't think Dawn will be a candidate or win. One point of disagreement is that I think you can forget the idea of Corbyn endorsing anyone - he is very consistently keen on deferring to the membership and not taking any kind of "follow me, chaps!" line. People will make inferences about his preferences and they may or may not be right, but he won't say.

    Bit like Brexit then...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,771
    More insidious Remainer negativity! Although I guess they didn't have the balls to go full-on Operation Cuckoo.....
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 15,397
    edited February 2
    One Yorkshireman to three other Yorkshiremen at some distant point in our Brexit future:

    'A little bit of bread? You were lucky.'
  • RogerRoger Posts: 11,801
    Labour and the Tories have soiled themselves so badly the best bet at the next election would be for the Libs the Greens and the SNP to do much better than current extimates
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 5,526
    Mr Mark,

    "Starmer sports a faintly bemused look,"

    He does and it's not a good look. Events happen around him and that slightly annoyed reaction he always gives makes you think he could be an arrogant git too. Appearances maketh a politician and he's unlucky in that respect.

    Jeremy has the look of empathy, it's a pity for him there's no one at home behind that empathetic gaze. I don't believe he's anti-Semitic, it's just that anyone who disagrees with his world view deserves any criticism that get, be it individually or as a nation.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 5,793

    'if the Tories have already replaced May and done so with a non-white candidate of their own, as is very possible.'

    We're constantly told that gammon is a racist term, would a candidate from that race qualify?

    On topic, I quite like Lisa Nandy though she may not possess the necessary shamelessness or appeal for the tankies at the moment. Next but one?

    Nandy would be my pick. Not sure she has the profile or seniority right now, but we could be talking several years down the line before a vacancy.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 53,480
    Are we supposed to see documents like the Yellowhammer one ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 53,480
    edited February 2
    On topic, Dawn is one of my best results in this market. A Henry G tip (Laura Pidcock) is well worth getting onside though.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 3,838
    DavidL said:

    Yvette Cooper has had a fairly good Brexit. She is much more high profile than almost any of the shadow cabinet. If Corbyn goes in defeat after an election is it not possible that the membership would go for competency and electability again?

    If Corbyn retires to the allotment at a time of his own choosing he will have a lot of say about his successor but not in defeat. It all depends on when and how.

    Yes, a scenario I pictured (and still have in the frame) is that the next GE is a re-run of May vs Corbyn, and this time May scores a clear win. In the aftermath of this, Labour do a re-think and they return to the soft left. Cooper, ticking that box and being eminent and respected, and also being beyond all reasonable doubt female, is the obvious choice to replace JC and she does exactly that. Mrs May then goes on and on (authority renewed by her GE victory) and she fights the following election vs YC. Proves to be a mistake because Yvette buries her.

    Yvette Cooper therefore becomes the next PM after TM, in betfair parlance. I am long of that at 600/1 and I would not swap it for the world.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 3,622

    More insidious Remainer negativity! Although I guess they didn't have the balls to go full-on Operation Cuckoo.....
    Lemming might be the most appropriate.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 3,305

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Nominations

    Starmer
    Thornberry
    Rayner
    Burgon
    Pidcock

    ——

    Winner depends on who Len and Momentum prefer.

    Best hope for Labour is one turns out to be a Kinnock like reformer.

    I can see how Thornberry might. The others? Forget it. Three of them need reforming and one of them has no imagination.
    The only one I would vote is Starmer, and Cooper who is not on the list. Pidcock and Burgon are thick as two short planks. Rayner sounds like she is thick two short planks, and Thornberry doesn’t have the common touch. She is more like a Tory if you know what I mean.
    Starmer sports a faintly bemused look, like someone at a snowy bus-stop holding their arm out at every large vehicle that goes past, unable to comprehend that the Second Referendum bus service has been cancelled due to adverse conditions.

    His credibility as taken a huge knock. He signed up for Jeremy's Circus, hoping one day to be Ringmaster. But his no-show at number 10 this week, when Corbyn went to talk Brexit without his Shadow Brexit Minister, shows that Starmer is just another anonymous member of the clown troupe.
    He's probably quite fortunate that he gets asked about Brexit and little else. I suspect he'd not enjoy having to defend some of Corbyn/McDonnell's other views.

    I'd suggest the 'others' as the most likely next Labour leader - someone as obscure as Owen Smith, but a bit more competent - clearly a wide field!

    (Have a vague hope it might be Matthew Pennycook - I backed him in a couple of pounds ages ago entirely by accident)
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,227
    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Yvette Cooper has had a fairly good Brexit. She is much more high profile than almost any of the shadow cabinet. If Corbyn goes in defeat after an election is it not possible that the membership would go for competency and electability again?

    If Corbyn retires to the allotment at a time of his own choosing he will have a lot of say about his successor but not in defeat. It all depends on when and how.

    Yes, a scenario I pictured (and still have in the frame) is that the next GE is a re-run of May vs Corbyn, and this time May scores a clear win. In the aftermath of this, Labour do a re-think and they return to the soft left. Cooper, ticking that box and being eminent and respected, and also being beyond all reasonable doubt female, is the obvious choice to replace JC and she does exactly that. Mrs May then goes on and on (authority renewed by her GE victory) and she fights the following election vs YC. Proves to be a mistake because Yvette buries her.

    Yvette Cooper therefore becomes the next PM after TM, in betfair parlance. I am long of that at 600/1 and I would not swap it for the world.
    You are not right in the tattie having nightmares like that. I will repeat Cooper is even crapper than May, she will never be a politician never mind PM.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,535
    Mr. Omnium, a few years ago now I was astounded Perez was circa 6 to finish top 6. He started 7th. Or so I thought. It transpired he had a grid penalty, which I discovered after backing him. He ended up finishing in the top 6 anyway, which was quite nice.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 35,031
    edited February 2
    Dawn butler, got to be kidding.....expense fiddling liar, who is so thick she makes jezza look like a genius.
  • A majority of Britons oppose leaving the EU without a deal. A YouGov poll for The Times today shows that 51 per cent think a no-deal Brexit would be a bad outcome, 18 per cent think it would be a good outcome and 17 per cent call it an “acceptable compromise”.

    The poll of 1,650 adults on Wednesday and Thursday found that Britons were most supportive of a delay to exit day if it were to allow time to negotiate an alternative Brexit deal.

    While 45 per cent endorsed delaying the exit date to allow the withdrawal agreement to be renegotiated, 39 per cent said they would support a delay to allow for more no-deal preparations to be made, and 37 per cent would support a delay to allow Mrs May’s deal to be approved by the Commons or allow for a second referendum.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/varadkar-and-coveney-set-for-crunch-talks-with-eu-leaders-8j6lwwggf
  • dotsdots Posts: 615
    edited February 2
    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Yvette Cooper has had a fairly good Brexit. She is much more high profile than almost any of the shadow cabinet. If Corbyn goes in defeat after an election is it not possible that the membership would go for competency and electability again?

    If Corbyn retires to the allotment at a time of his own choosing he will have a lot of say about his successor but not in defeat. It all depends on when and how.

    Yes, a scenario I pictured (and still have in the frame) is that the next GE is a re-run of May vs Corbyn, and this time May scores a clear win. In the aftermath of this, Labour do a re-think and they return to the soft left. Cooper, ticking that box and being eminent and respected, and also being beyond all reasonable doubt female, is the obvious choice to replace JC and she does exactly that. Mrs May then goes on and on (authority renewed by her GE victory) and she fights the following election vs YC. Proves to be a mistake because Yvette buries her.

    Yvette Cooper therefore becomes the next PM after TM, in betfair parlance. I am long of that at 600/1 and I would not swap it for the world.
    To Cooper fans she’s a Goddess. An Amazon Queen. A Valkyrie who can rise above this mess. Not New Labour any more but soft left, can unite Labour and convince the Nation she is PM material.

    To doubters, she just comes across as a wet lettuce. Nothing there whatsoever. Her excited fans just squirting relish all over it.
  • On topic very good tip, she'll go far with Obama's endorsement.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 15,397
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,227

    Dawn butler, got to be kidding.....expense fiddling liar, who is so thick she makes jezza look like a genius.

    +1
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,344
    I don't like to rule out anything but to be successful in a future Labour leadership election Cooper will have to put on a very good performance, completely unlike her previous leadership campaign in almost every way. I just think she might get outdone even if the members are after someone with similarish views.
This discussion has been closed.