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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Gove still heading the TMay successor betting as we get closer

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited February 2 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Gove still heading the TMay successor betting as we get closer to the Article 50 dealing

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  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,128
    First. Like 'anyone but'
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 5,431
    A good point about Johnson from John Rentoul

  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,214
    Any idea what caused the spike in Govephilia on the markets?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 23,213
    In the long annals of Brexit insanity, the fact that Sunderland voted Leave is surely the most extraordinary fact of all.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,128

    A good point about Johnson from John Rentoul

    But Jezza is also utterly hopeless in the Chamber and yet wins landslides amongst the middle class marxists who dominate the new labour party.

    I suppose Boris has to get past the MPs so more of an issue.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 23,213
    On topic:

    Gove - About right
    Johnson - Too short
    Rabb - Too short
    Javid - Too long
    Hunt - Too long
    Rudd - Not a snowflake's chance in hell, unfortunately
    Tugendhat - No

  • Freggles said:

    Any idea what caused the spike in Govephilia on the markets?

    His speech in the no confidence debate.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,128

    In the long annals of Brexit insanity, the fact that Sunderland voted Leave is surely the most extraordinary fact of all.
    I know one or two remainers who will laugh their heads off at this news.

    Which shows how Brexit has so divided our country.
  • In the long annals of Brexit insanity, the fact that Sunderland voted Leave is surely the most extraordinary fact of all.
    Seems fair that those who voted for Brexit get all the ‘dividends’.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,128

    On topic:

    Gove - About right
    Johnson - Too short
    Rabb - Too short
    Javid - Too long
    Hunt - Too long
    Rudd - Not a snowflake's chance in hell, unfortunately
    Tugendhat - No

    I worry about Leadsome. I'm red on her. But she did run last time and so...
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 23,213

    In the long annals of Brexit insanity, the fact that Sunderland voted Leave is surely the most extraordinary fact of all.
    Seems fair that those who voted for Brexit get all the ‘dividends’.
    Fishermen and farmers too.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,931
    Immigrants won't pinch jobs, when those jobs are gone. Simples!
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 23,213

    On topic:

    Gove - About right
    Johnson - Too short
    Rabb - Too short
    Javid - Too long
    Hunt - Too long
    Rudd - Not a snowflake's chance in hell, unfortunately
    Tugendhat - No

    I worry about Leadsome. I'm red on her. But she did run last time and so...
    She certainly has a better chance than some of those at shorter odds.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 4,572
    Gove's been shrewd since flaunting his Leave credentials during the referendum. Unlike Boris, who embraced the darkness, he's tacked to a more moderate Brexit and has even pleased liberals by being a bit of a greeny. His loyalty to Theresa has surely also been noticed and noted by the party faithful (cf. the insolence of Rees-Mogg and crew).
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 24,318

    In the long annals of Brexit insanity, the fact that Sunderland voted Leave is surely the most extraordinary fact of all.
    I know one or two remainers who will laugh their heads off at this news.

    Which shows how Brexit has so divided our country.
    Not at all

    It just shows that those individuals are deeply unpleasant people who take joy in the misfortune of others
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 23,213

    Gove's been shrewd since flaunting his Leave credentials during the referendum. Unlike Boris, who embraced the darkness, he's tacked to a more moderate Brexit and has even pleased liberals by being a bit of a greeny. His loyalty to Theresa has surely also been noticed and noted by the party faithful (cf. the insolence of Rees-Mogg and crew).

    He's just about the only possible unifying candidate now.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    What is the alternative? Not to build it at all?
  • felixfelix Posts: 8,889

    In the long annals of Brexit insanity, the fact that Sunderland voted Leave is surely the most extraordinary fact of all.
    I come from there and my sister and family live there. My aunt and uncle are very enthusiatic Brexiters but to this day the rest of us have never understood the madness of the Sunderland vote.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited February 2

    Gove's been shrewd since flaunting his Leave credentials during the referendum. Unlike Boris, who embraced the darkness, he's tacked to a more moderate Brexit and has even pleased liberals by being a bit of a greeny. His loyalty to Theresa has surely also been noticed and noted by the party faithful (cf. the insolence of Rees-Mogg and crew).

    He's just about the only possible unifying candidate now.
    Gove is soft on the Norway option.

    When they were in, they were in
    And when they were out, they were out
    But when they were only half way out
    They were neither out nor in.

    So the Conservative members will only vote for for Gove if he is against Rudd.
  • felixfelix Posts: 8,889


    What is the alternative? Not to build it at all?
    They may choose Spain instead. But the news is awful for the city.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,332
    edited February 2
    If May gets her Deal through there will be a general election in May anyway as the DUP join with the Opposition and VONC the government (given the EU have again refused to backdown over the backstop) and May will lead the Tories as she has only said she will step down before a 2022 general election. If May wins that general election the next leader will be a younger figure, if May loses it is hard to see any Deal backer like Gove getting it and Boris must be strong favourite to take over as leader of the Opposition on a hard Brexit platform.

    If we end up with permanent Customs Union with single market elements as is possible if Tory anti No Deal MPs vote with Labour and the SNP then May will likely last until December after which it is hard to see how she will not be toppled with a hard Brexiteer like Boris replacing her.

    If we end up with No Deal then May might survive until 2022 with the ERG and DUP on board and either she wins and again a younger contender comes into play while even if she loses a candidate from the next generation by then might be favoured
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 23,213

    Gove's been shrewd since flaunting his Leave credentials during the referendum. Unlike Boris, who embraced the darkness, he's tacked to a more moderate Brexit and has even pleased liberals by being a bit of a greeny. His loyalty to Theresa has surely also been noticed and noted by the party faithful (cf. the insolence of Rees-Mogg and crew).

    He's just about the only possible unifying candidate now.
    Gove is soft on the Norway option.

    When they were in they were in
    And when they were out they were out
    But when they were onky half way out
    They were neither out nor in.

    So the Conservative members will only for for Gove if he is against Rudd.
    Or Johnson. Or any of the other Brexiteer loons (there are still a lot of sensible members left, amazing as it might seem).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,585

    Gove's been shrewd since flaunting his Leave credentials during the referendum. Unlike Boris, who embraced the darkness, he's tacked to a more moderate Brexit and has even pleased liberals by being a bit of a greeny. His loyalty to Theresa has surely also been noticed and noted by the party faithful (cf. the insolence of Rees-Mogg and crew).

    He's just about the only possible unifying candidate now.
    Somehow can’t see him unifying the country, though....
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 11,390
    felix said:

    In the long annals of Brexit insanity, the fact that Sunderland voted Leave is surely the most extraordinary fact of all.
    I come from there and my sister and family live there. My aunt and uncle are very enthusiatic Brexiters but to this day the rest of us have never understood the madness of the Sunderland vote.
    Do any of them have any direct connections to Nissan? Just Googling it suggests that the plant employs 6,700 directly and then a lot more in the supply chain. That sounds like a lot of people, but there will still be plenty in Sunderland who don't have a connection to the plant.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,214


    What is the alternative? Not to build it at all?
    To build it in one of their other factories.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited February 2
    Freggles said:


    What is the alternative? Not to build it at all?
    To build it in one of their other factories.
    In Japan now that they have a trade deal with the EU and don't have to pay 12% duty importing cars into the EU from Japan.

    So not to do with Brexit.
  • felix said:

    In the long annals of Brexit insanity, the fact that Sunderland voted Leave is surely the most extraordinary fact of all.
    I come from there and my sister and family live there. My aunt and uncle are very enthusiatic Brexiters but to this day the rest of us have never understood the madness of the Sunderland vote.
    I don’t blame the voters.

    I blame the politicians that said Brexit would be easy and painless, that any criticisms of Brexit were Project Fear.

    The voters were sold a pup.
  • The Italians are putting up the worst performance by a side from Rome since the battle of Cannae.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 29,841

    felix said:

    In the long annals of Brexit insanity, the fact that Sunderland voted Leave is surely the most extraordinary fact of all.
    I come from there and my sister and family live there. My aunt and uncle are very enthusiatic Brexiters but to this day the rest of us have never understood the madness of the Sunderland vote.
    I don’t blame the voters.

    I blame the politicians that said Brexit would be easy and painless, that any criticisms of Brexit were Project Fear.

    The voters were sold a pup.
    Gove should have been fired.

    <img src=https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DcCHxtdWAAMUgz0.jpg:large
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,332

    The Italians are putting up the worst performance by a side from Rome since the battle of Cannae.

    Second Italian try
  • eekeek Posts: 4,772
    tlg86 said:

    felix said:

    In the long annals of Brexit insanity, the fact that Sunderland voted Leave is surely the most extraordinary fact of all.
    I come from there and my sister and family live there. My aunt and uncle are very enthusiatic Brexiters but to this day the rest of us have never understood the madness of the Sunderland vote.
    Do any of them have any direct connections to Nissan? Just Googling it suggests that the plant employs 6,700 directly and then a lot more in the supply chain. That sounds like a lot of people, but there will still be plenty in Sunderland who don't have a connection to the plant.
    And equally a lot of those 6700 may live outside Sunderland - South Shields, Durham Chester-le-Street are well within a 15 minute commuting distance.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    England start their second innings after West Indies take a lead of 119 on first innings.

    Will England make WI bat again or not?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,128
    HYUFD said:

    If May gets her Deal through there will be a general election in May anyway as the DUP join with the Opposition and VONC the government (given the EU have again refused to backdown over the backstop) and May will lead the Tories as she has only said she will step down before a 2022 general election. If May wins that general election the next leader will be a younger figure, if May loses it is hard to see any Deal backer like Gove getting it and Boris must be strong favourite to take over as leader of the Opposition on a hard Brexit platform.

    If we end up with permanent Customs Union with single market elements as is possible if Tory anti No Deal MPs vote with Labour and the SNP then May will likely last until December after which it is hard to see how she will not be toppled with a hard Brexiteer like Boris replacing her.

    If we end up with No Deal then May might survive until 2022 with the ERG and DUP on board and either she wins and again a younger contender comes into play while even if she loses a candidate from the next generation by then might be favoured

    The alternative is May gets a last minute bit of paper on backstop from the EU that just about persuades the DUP.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 23,213
    edited February 2
    Unfortunately the damage arising from MPs rejection of the withdrawal deal is now becoming increasingly irreversible. Even if the blunder is swiftly corrected, it will be a hell of a long time before international business trusts the UK again; if your business depends on access to the EU market, why take the risk? Banks that have moved operations to Dublin and elsewhere are not going to reverse the process, and car manufacturers with multi-billion pound investment decisions need to be able to rely on many years of stability.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,332

    HYUFD said:

    If May gets her Deal through there will be a general election in May anyway as the DUP join with the Opposition and VONC the government (given the EU have again refused to backdown over the backstop) and May will lead the Tories as she has only said she will step down before a 2022 general election. If May wins that general election the next leader will be a younger figure, if May loses it is hard to see any Deal backer like Gove getting it and Boris must be strong favourite to take over as leader of the Opposition on a hard Brexit platform.

    If we end up with permanent Customs Union with single market elements as is possible if Tory anti No Deal MPs vote with Labour and the SNP then May will likely last until December after which it is hard to see how she will not be toppled with a hard Brexiteer like Boris replacing her.

    If we end up with No Deal then May might survive until 2022 with the ERG and DUP on board and either she wins and again a younger contender comes into play while even if she loses a candidate from the next generation by then might be favoured

    The alternative is May gets a last minute bit of paper on backstop from the EU that just about persuades the DUP.
    Well we can believe in unicorns of course but that is not very likely
  • felixfelix Posts: 8,889
    tlg86 said:

    felix said:

    In the long annals of Brexit insanity, the fact that Sunderland voted Leave is surely the most extraordinary fact of all.
    I come from there and my sister and family live there. My aunt and uncle are very enthusiatic Brexiters but to this day the rest of us have never understood the madness of the Sunderland vote.
    Do any of them have any direct connections to Nissan? Just Googling it suggests that the plant employs 6,700 directly and then a lot more in the supply chain. That sounds like a lot of people, but there will still be plenty in Sunderland who don't have a connection to the plant.
    Luckily no - my aunt and uncle are wealthy retired, bigoted and living in the past. My sister's family are all in good jobs but Nissan has been really good for area and they seem to have thrown it all away for a dream.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 26,286

    Freggles said:


    What is the alternative? Not to build it at all?
    To build it in one of their other factories.
    In Japan now that they have a trade deal with the EU and don't have to pay 12% duty importing cars into the EU from Japan.
    Doesn't it depend on where the supply chain, and target market for the X-trail is? SUVs aren't that popular in Japan, and the supply chain is mostly in continental Europe. My money would be on Spain : wages are lower than the UK, and the Spanish government has been lavish with its subsidies
  • felixfelix Posts: 8,889

    felix said:

    In the long annals of Brexit insanity, the fact that Sunderland voted Leave is surely the most extraordinary fact of all.
    I come from there and my sister and family live there. My aunt and uncle are very enthusiatic Brexiters but to this day the rest of us have never understood the madness of the Sunderland vote.
    I don’t blame the voters.

    I blame the politicians that said Brexit would be easy and painless, that any criticisms of Brexit were Project Fear.

    The voters were sold a pup.
    Sorry but voters have to share lots of the blame for this. That's what democracy means. There were lies on both sides most of which continue today. Voters get the politicians they deserve.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,585

    Unfortunately the damage arising from MPs rejection of the withdrawal deal is now becoming increasingly irreversible. Even if the blunder is swiftly corrected, it will be a hell of a long time before international business trusts the UK again; if your business depends on access to the EU market, why take the risk? Banks that have moved operations to Dublin and elsewhere are not going to reverse the process, and car manufacturers with multi-billion pound investment decisions need to be able to rely on many years of stability.

    Project fear, Richard. Just project fear....

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,771


    What is the alternative? Not to build it at all?
    It's a model originally launched in 2000, albeit with several updates. Maybe there is some newly named replacement coming down the line later?

    We need to see the fuller picture before leaping to Brexit-related conclusions....
  • HYUFD said:

    If May gets her Deal through there will be a general election in May anyway as the DUP join with the Opposition and VONC the government (given the EU have again refused to backdown over the backstop) and May will lead the Tories as she has only said she will step down before a 2022 general election. If May wins that general election the next leader will be a younger figure, if May loses it is hard to see any Deal backer like Gove getting it and Boris must be strong favourite to take over as leader of the Opposition on a hard Brexit platform.

    If we end up with permanent Customs Union with single market elements as is possible if Tory anti No Deal MPs vote with Labour and the SNP then May will likely last until December after which it is hard to see how she will not be toppled with a hard Brexiteer like Boris replacing her.

    If we end up with No Deal then May might survive until 2022 with the ERG and DUP on board and either she wins and again a younger contender comes into play while even if she loses a candidate from the next generation by then might be favoured

    Let me stop you in your first sentence from which the rest of your speculation flows

    If TM deal passes it will need a good number of ERG members on board and the DUP may go along with the deal. They may decide to withdraw their confidence and supply, but bring down the government in favour of a possible Corbyn government is not at all certain

    Your views do follow a pattern with such certainty and recently you seem to think that TM and ERG will go all customs union and single market. The 40 plus labour mps are talking of voting for the deal as it is now and many are coming round to just get it done.

    IMHO TM deal will go through by the end of the month and there will not be a GE.

    (You notice I do say IMHO)

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,411

    On topic:

    Gove - About right
    Johnson - Too short
    Rabb - Too short
    Javid - Too long
    Hunt - Too long
    Rudd - Not a snowflake's chance in hell, unfortunately
    Tugendhat - No

    Rudd was splashed on today's FT with her picture taking up half the front page. Maybe one of pb's City types can tell us why.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 15,563
    HYUFD said:

    The Italians are putting up the worst performance by a side from Rome since the battle of Cannae.

    Second Italian try
    Third.
  • felix said:

    felix said:

    In the long annals of Brexit insanity, the fact that Sunderland voted Leave is surely the most extraordinary fact of all.
    I come from there and my sister and family live there. My aunt and uncle are very enthusiatic Brexiters but to this day the rest of us have never understood the madness of the Sunderland vote.
    I don’t blame the voters.

    I blame the politicians that said Brexit would be easy and painless, that any criticisms of Brexit were Project Fear.

    The voters were sold a pup.
    Sorry but voters have to share lots of the blame for this. That's what democracy means. There were lies on both sides most of which continue today. Voters get the politicians they deserve.
    I’m in full patrician one nation mode today.

    Pains me that people are going to suffer and if Project Fear turns out to be Project Reality then the voters will turn to Corbyn.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 4,501

    Freggles said:


    What is the alternative? Not to build it at all?
    To build it in one of their other factories.
    In Japan now that they have a trade deal with the EU and don't have to pay 12% duty importing cars into the EU from Japan.

    So not to do with Brexit.
    It’s funny how all these project cancellations, headquarter transfers, staff moves, etc etc are never because of Brexit.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,128
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If May gets her Deal through there will be a general election in May anyway as the DUP join with the Opposition and VONC the government (given the EU have again refused to backdown over the backstop) and May will lead the Tories as she has only said she will step down before a 2022 general election. If May wins that general election the next leader will be a younger figure, if May loses it is hard to see any Deal backer like Gove getting it and Boris must be strong favourite to take over as leader of the Opposition on a hard Brexit platform.

    If we end up with permanent Customs Union with single market elements as is possible if Tory anti No Deal MPs vote with Labour and the SNP then May will likely last until December after which it is hard to see how she will not be toppled with a hard Brexiteer like Boris replacing her.

    If we end up with No Deal then May might survive until 2022 with the ERG and DUP on board and either she wins and again a younger contender comes into play while even if she loses a candidate from the next generation by then might be favoured

    The alternative is May gets a last minute bit of paper on backstop from the EU that just about persuades the DUP.
    Well we can believe in unicorns of course but that is not very likely
    I am beginning to wonder. I have said repeatedly on here that the EU has told May there will be no changes on WA/backstop etc and that's that. The unicorns do not exist.

    But I wonder now whether it might dawn on the EU at this late hour that a No Deal combined with the recession in Europe and the situation in Italy, might break the whole thing.

    Will they find some form of unicorny words that allows most of the Tory party to back away from the edge?
  • Freggles said:


    What is the alternative? Not to build it at all?
    To build it in one of their other factories.
    In Japan now that they have a trade deal with the EU and don't have to pay 12% duty importing cars into the EU from Japan.

    So not to do with Brexit.
    It’s funny how all these project cancellations, headquarter transfers, staff moves, etc etc are never because of Brexit.
    I would want more detail but if Japan now avoids duty why would they not bring it home and support their own workforce. However, if it moves to Spain that is a loss and it greatly sadden me
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,128
    Nigelb said:

    Unfortunately the damage arising from MPs rejection of the withdrawal deal is now becoming increasingly irreversible. Even if the blunder is swiftly corrected, it will be a hell of a long time before international business trusts the UK again; if your business depends on access to the EU market, why take the risk? Banks that have moved operations to Dublin and elsewhere are not going to reverse the process, and car manufacturers with multi-billion pound investment decisions need to be able to rely on many years of stability.

    Project fear, Richard. Just project fear....

    Think of the pure, sweet smelling air of freedom.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 24,318
    felix said:


    What is the alternative? Not to build it at all?
    They may choose Spain instead. But the news is awful for the city.
    Didn’t May make certain promises to them?

    This is a leak not an official announcement (I think). If that is the case it may be a warning shot rather than a final decision
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 24,318

    On topic:

    Gove - About right
    Johnson - Too short
    Rabb - Too short
    Javid - Too long
    Hunt - Too long
    Rudd - Not a snowflake's chance in hell, unfortunately
    Tugendhat - No

    Rudd was splashed on today's FT with her picture taking up half the front page. Maybe one of pb's City types can tell us why.
    Because her brother is a very well connected PR maestro?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 35,031
    edited February 2
    The thing to look out for is will Nissan still make the next-generation Qashqai at Sunderland.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 18,815

    felix said:

    In the long annals of Brexit insanity, the fact that Sunderland voted Leave is surely the most extraordinary fact of all.
    I come from there and my sister and family live there. My aunt and uncle are very enthusiatic Brexiters but to this day the rest of us have never understood the madness of the Sunderland vote.
    I don’t blame the voters.

    I blame the politicians that said Brexit would be easy and painless, that any criticisms of Brexit were Project Fear.

    The voters were sold a pup.
    Gove should have been fired.

    image
    Except he was right of course. Typical Remainers wanting to have people fired for telling the truth.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 11,390
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,411
    felix said:

    felix said:

    In the long annals of Brexit insanity, the fact that Sunderland voted Leave is surely the most extraordinary fact of all.
    I come from there and my sister and family live there. My aunt and uncle are very enthusiatic Brexiters but to this day the rest of us have never understood the madness of the Sunderland vote.
    I don’t blame the voters.

    I blame the politicians that said Brexit would be easy and painless, that any criticisms of Brexit were Project Fear.

    The voters were sold a pup.
    Sorry but voters have to share lots of the blame for this. That's what democracy means. There were lies on both sides most of which continue today. Voters get the politicians they deserve.
    The voters are blameless. What else could they have done? Conservative MPs less so. They elected Theresa May; they banged the desks in applause after she lost their majority; they supported her in a confidence vote. Remarkably, they did all this while not supporting her policies. They are the guilty men (and women).
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 29,841

    felix said:

    In the long annals of Brexit insanity, the fact that Sunderland voted Leave is surely the most extraordinary fact of all.
    I come from there and my sister and family live there. My aunt and uncle are very enthusiatic Brexiters but to this day the rest of us have never understood the madness of the Sunderland vote.
    I don’t blame the voters.

    I blame the politicians that said Brexit would be easy and painless, that any criticisms of Brexit were Project Fear.

    The voters were sold a pup.
    Gove should have been fired.

    image
    Except he was right of course. Typical Remainers wanting to have people fired for telling the truth.
    We’re not ready now, so I don’t know how you could say we were ready then.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 35,031
    Jesus Christ, ITV Player is shit...makes iPlayer look decent. The bloody pirates can provide better quality than either of them.
  • felixfelix Posts: 8,889


    What is the alternative? Not to build it at all?
    It's a model originally launched in 2000, albeit with several updates. Maybe there is some newly named replacement coming down the line later?

    We need to see the fuller picture before leaping to Brexit-related conclusions....
    Are you kidding?
  • felixfelix Posts: 8,889

    felix said:

    felix said:

    In the long annals of Brexit insanity, the fact that Sunderland voted Leave is surely the most extraordinary fact of all.
    I come from there and my sister and family live there. My aunt and uncle are very enthusiatic Brexiters but to this day the rest of us have never understood the madness of the Sunderland vote.
    I don’t blame the voters.

    I blame the politicians that said Brexit would be easy and painless, that any criticisms of Brexit were Project Fear.

    The voters were sold a pup.
    Sorry but voters have to share lots of the blame for this. That's what democracy means. There were lies on both sides most of which continue today. Voters get the politicians they deserve.
    I’m in full patrician one nation mode today.

    Pains me that people are going to suffer and if Project Fear turns out to be Project Reality then the voters will turn to Corbyn.
    That won't make much difference up there. They're used to electing red donkeys.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 2,348

    Freggles said:


    What is the alternative? Not to build it at all?
    To build it in one of their other factories.
    In Japan now that they have a trade deal with the EU and don't have to pay 12% duty importing cars into the EU from Japan.

    So not to do with Brexit.
    It’s funny how all these project cancellations, headquarter transfers, staff moves, etc etc are never because of Brexit.
    "Nothing to do with Brexit" is a phrase we are going to hear a lot over the next few years and even if the odd one is true I doubt many will be fooled. People will want a scapegoat and Brexit will become the new EU and will get blamed for everything.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 4,501
    OllyT said:

    Freggles said:


    What is the alternative? Not to build it at all?
    To build it in one of their other factories.
    In Japan now that they have a trade deal with the EU and don't have to pay 12% duty importing cars into the EU from Japan.

    So not to do with Brexit.
    It’s funny how all these project cancellations, headquarter transfers, staff moves, etc etc are never because of Brexit.
    "Nothing to do with Brexit" is a phrase we are going to hear a lot over the next few years and even if the odd one is true I doubt many will be fooled. People will want a scapegoat and Brexit will become the new EU and will get blamed for everything.
    People voted to be poorer and to limit the freedoms of their children. So not sure why we should “blame” anything - it was a conscious decision.
  • felixfelix Posts: 8,889

    felix said:

    felix said:

    In the long annals of Brexit insanity, the fact that Sunderland voted Leave is surely the most extraordinary fact of all.
    I come from there and my sister and family live there. My aunt and uncle are very enthusiatic Brexiters but to this day the rest of us have never understood the madness of the Sunderland vote.
    I don’t blame the voters.

    I blame the politicians that said Brexit would be easy and painless, that any criticisms of Brexit were Project Fear.

    The voters were sold a pup.
    Sorry but voters have to share lots of the blame for this. That's what democracy means. There were lies on both sides most of which continue today. Voters get the politicians they deserve.
    The voters are blameless. What else could they have done? Conservative MPs less so. They elected Theresa May; they banged the desks in applause after she lost their majority; they supported her in a confidence vote. Remarkably, they did all this while not supporting her policies. They are the guilty men (and women).
    Nonsense. The whole nature of democracy is to hand power to the people. There were two choices in the Referendum.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 4,572
    edited February 2
    felix said:


    What is the alternative? Not to build it at all?
    It's a model originally launched in 2000, albeit with several updates. Maybe there is some newly named replacement coming down the line later?

    We need to see the fuller picture before leaping to Brexit-related conclusions....
    Are you kidding?
    The car makers all seemed sanguine though after Theresa's mysterious assurances given shortly after the referendum. What's changed? Do they think she'll renege on them (some kind of subsidy) or that it's no longer in her power to delivery them (reasonable trade links with the EU)?
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 3,799
    felix said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    In the long annals of Brexit insanity, the fact that Sunderland voted Leave is surely the most extraordinary fact of all.
    I come from there and my sister and family live there. My aunt and uncle are very enthusiatic Brexiters but to this day the rest of us have never understood the madness of the Sunderland vote.
    I don’t blame the voters.

    I blame the politicians that said Brexit would be easy and painless, that any criticisms of Brexit were Project Fear.

    The voters were sold a pup.
    Sorry but voters have to share lots of the blame for this. That's what democracy means. There were lies on both sides most of which continue today. Voters get the politicians they deserve.
    The voters are blameless. What else could they have done? Conservative MPs less so. They elected Theresa May; they banged the desks in applause after she lost their majority; they supported her in a confidence vote. Remarkably, they did all this while not supporting her policies. They are the guilty men (and women).
    Nonsense. The whole nature of democracy is to hand power to the people. There were two choices in the Referendum.
    True, what was , the abstain , did not vote rate ?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 35,031
    edited February 2

    felix said:


    What is the alternative? Not to build it at all?
    It's a model originally launched in 2000, albeit with several updates. Maybe there is some newly named replacement coming down the line later?

    We need to see the fuller picture before leaping to Brexit-related conclusions....
    Are you kidding?
    The car makers all seemed sanguine though after Theresa's mysterious assurances given shortly after the referendum. What's changed? Do they think she'll renege on them (some kind of subsidy) or that it's no longer in her power to delivery them (reasonable trade links with the EU)?
    As noted below one big change is EU / Japan trade deal allows them to import the X-Trail from Japan without tariff. That is why I think it is important to see what Nissan are going to do about the next gen Qashqai, which is supposed to be being made at Sunderland.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 7,715
    My first thought with most car-related announcements is whether it's related to the crash in diesel sales. If demand for the X-Trail is down because they were mainly sold with diesel engines then it would have nothing to do with either Brexit or the EU-Japan FTA.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 48,367

    The car makers all seemed sanguine though after Theresa's mysterious assurances given shortly after the referendum. What's changed? Do they think she'll renege on them (some kind of subsidy) or that it's no longer in her power to delivery them (reasonable trade links with the EU)?

    Presumably she told them we would not crash out without any deal, disrupt all their supply chains and impose WTO tariffs on every product.

    Which she can't now deliver.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 35,031
    edited February 2

    My first thought with most car-related announcements is whether it's related to the crash in diesel sales. If demand for the X-Trail is down because they were mainly sold with diesel engines then it would have nothing to do with either Brexit or the EU-Japan FTA.
    I think it will become clear quite quickly. If they announce they are going to continue to make it in Japan, I think we can make a good call that it is the FTA. If they say they have chosen another site in the EU, well that does scream Brexit was an the driving factor.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 48,367

    I think it will become clearly quite quickly. If they announce they are going to continue to make it in Japan, I think we can make a good call that it is the FTA. If they say they have chosen another site in the EU, well that does scream Brexit was an the driving factor.

    As noted above, the only reason to build in Sunderland was to avoid tariffs.

    Japan is now tariff free, and Sunderland might not be.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 35,031
    I see the French LARPers are out again. It really has turned into the traditional Saturday afternoon hobby for some in France.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 35,031
    edited February 2
    Scott_P said:

    I think it will become clearly quite quickly. If they announce they are going to continue to make it in Japan, I think we can make a good call that it is the FTA. If they say they have chosen another site in the EU, well that does scream Brexit was an the driving factor.

    As noted above, the only reason to build in Sunderland was to avoid tariffs.

    Japan is now tariff free, and Sunderland might not be.
    Which is why I said I think a telling factor will also be if they also pull out of making the next gen Qashqai there. XTrail and Qashqai were going to be new investment and additional jobs, but XTrail is currently made in Japan.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 4,501
    edited February 2

    My first thought with most car-related announcements is whether it's related to the crash in diesel sales. If demand for the X-Trail is down because they were mainly sold with diesel engines then it would have nothing to do with either Brexit or the EU-Japan FTA.
    I think it will become clear quite quickly. If they announce they are going to continue to make it in Japan, I think we can make a good call that it is the FTA. If they say they have chosen another site in the EU, well that does scream Brexit was an the driving factor.
    If it is made in Japan because of the Japan-EU FTA to which the U.K. will no longer be a party —- then it is also because of Brexit.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 35,031
    edited February 2



    My first thought with most car-related announcements is whether it's related to the crash in diesel sales. If demand for the X-Trail is down because they were mainly sold with diesel engines then it would have nothing to do with either Brexit or the EU-Japan FTA.
    I think it will become clear quite quickly. If they announce they are going to continue to make it in Japan, I think we can make a good call that it is the FTA. If they say they have chosen another site in the EU, well that does scream Brexit was an the driving factor.
    If it is made in Japan because of the Japan-EU FTA to which the U.K. will no longer be a party —- then it is also because of Brexit.
    Well no it isn't. They don't need to move to any EU country with that deal, compared to 2 years ago when they announced this.

    As I said down thread, if they do announce that they are still bringing it to the EU rather than the UK, and the same for the Qashqai, then yes definitely is.
  • What a start.
  • OllyT said:

    Freggles said:


    What is the alternative? Not to build it at all?
    To build it in one of their other factories.
    In Japan now that they have a trade deal with the EU and don't have to pay 12% duty importing cars into the EU from Japan.

    So not to do with Brexit.
    It’s funny how all these project cancellations, headquarter transfers, staff moves, etc etc are never because of Brexit.
    "Nothing to do with Brexit" is a phrase we are going to hear a lot over the next few years and even if the odd one is true I doubt many will be fooled. People will want a scapegoat and Brexit will become the new EU and will get blamed for everything.
    People voted to be poorer and to limit the freedoms of their children. So not sure why we should “blame” anything - it was a conscious decision.
    This is nonsense. People voted to leave based on promises we would thrive and prosper outside of the EU. This was a promise that was made. In communities where zero hour jobs and minimum wage contracts are the norm this was a message that was readily received. Remain needed to offer more than more of the same.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 35,031
    edited February 2

    What a start.

    Spoiler alert....Bloody ITV player is crap and miles behind....

    I don't understand how Laws isn't in the team.
  • What a start.

    Spoiler alert....Bloody ITV player is crap and miles behind....

    I don't understand how Laws isn't in the team.
    It is the pineapple on pizza of online viewing.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 35,031

    What a start.

    Spoiler alert....Bloody ITV player is crap and miles behind....

    I don't understand how Laws isn't in the team.
    It is the pineapple on pizza of online viewing.
    Its even worse than that....its Radiohead live at Glastonbury bad.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 26,286
    tlg86 said:
    On that basis, every country is a protectionist racket:

    Mercedes-Benz make cars in the US to avoid their tariffs.
    BMW makes cars in China to avoid their tariffs.
    Ford makes cars in the EU to avoid their tariffs.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 35,031
    Scott_P said:
    Translation....BBC News has read Sky News website...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 26,286
    @Charles may also be completely correct.

    This could well be a warning shot to the government. If there isn't going to be a Deal, then there will be no investment.

    (I wonder if Sunderland's Labour MPs might think about backing Theresa's deal now.)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 26,286

    Scott_P said:
    Translation....BBC News has read Sky News website...
    That's exactly what I thought :)
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,523
    Probably sod all to do with Brexit and more to do with the car industry struggling in general globally due to massive over production capabilities and the disruption of electric vehicles.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,771
    edited February 2
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 29,841

    My first thought with most car-related announcements is whether it's related to the crash in diesel sales. If demand for the X-Trail is down because they were mainly sold with diesel engines then it would have nothing to do with either Brexit or the EU-Japan FTA.
    I think it will become clear quite quickly. If they announce they are going to continue to make it in Japan, I think we can make a good call that it is the FTA. If they say they have chosen another site in the EU, well that does scream Brexit was an the driving factor.
    The canny populist will pivot towards *not* applying the Japan FTA to the UK after Brexit.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,353
    OllyT said:

    Freggles said:


    What is the alternative? Not to build it at all?
    To build it in one of their other factories.
    In Japan now that they have a trade deal with the EU and don't have to pay 12% duty importing cars into the EU from Japan.

    So not to do with Brexit.
    It’s funny how all these project cancellations, headquarter transfers, staff moves, etc etc are never because of Brexit.
    "Nothing to do with Brexit" is a phrase we are going to hear a lot over the next few years and even if the odd one is true I doubt many will be fooled. People will want a scapegoat and Brexit will become the new EU and will get blamed for everything.
    Exactly. This may be nothing to do with Brexit - though even then Brexit can hardly have helped. But I am seeing similar decisions being made on a much smaller scale which certainly are to do with Brexit. Indeed in my own very modest way I have plans to open an office in Berlin which are entirely and unambiguously down to Brexit and nothing else. It will be pretty much a virtual operation just so I still have a legal presence in the EU. But it will mean money I might have spent in Britain going to Germany and will probably delay me hiring employee No 4.

    Anyone who thinks the short term hit we are going to take for leaving the EU is going to be small is simply not living in the real world.

  • RogerRoger Posts: 11,801
    edited February 2
    OllyT said:

    Freggles said:


    What is the alternative? Not to build it at all?
    To build it in one of their other factories.
    In Japan now that they have a trade deal with the EU and don't have to pay 12% duty importing cars into the EU from Japan.

    So not to do with Brexit.
    It’s funny how all these project cancellations, headquarter transfers, staff moves, etc etc are never because of Brexit.
    "Nothing to do with Brexit" is a phrase we are going to hear a lot over the next few years and even if the odd one is true I doubt many will be fooled. People will want a scapegoat and Brexit will become the new EU and will get blamed for everything.
    You might be right......

    'PUTREFYING PILES OF WASTE AFTER BREXIT' is the headline in today's Guardian.

    (Or maybe they saw the list for T May's successor)


  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,332
    edited February 2

    HYUFD said:

    If May gets her Deal through there will be a general election in May anyway as the DUP join with the Opposition and VONC the government (given the EU have again refused to backdown over the backstop) and May will lead the Tories as she has only said she will step down before a 2022 gen generation by then might be favoured

    Let me stop you in your first sentence from which the rest of your speculation flows

    If TM deal passes it will need a good number of ERG members on board and the DUP may go along with the deal. They may decide to withdraw their confidence and supply, but bring down the government in favour of a possible Corbyn government is not at all certain

    Your views do follow a pattern with such certainty and recently you seem to think that TM and ERG will go all customs union and single market. The 40 plus labour mps are talking of voting for the deal as it is now and many are coming round to just get it done.

    IMHO TM deal will go through by the end of the month and there will not be a GE.

    (You notice I do say IMHO)


    If the Deal passes it will almost certainly be because significant numbers of Labour MPs vote for it, the ERG and certainly the DUP will not be supporting it as it requires the backstop. The DUP have also been adamant that stopping the backstop is a 'blood red line' and if the Deal passes the Commons they will then vote of no confidence the government in order to stop to try and stop it instead.


    TM and the ERG will of course not go all customs union and single market and I have never suggested that, if customs union and single market elements pass it will be through Labour, LD and SNP votes and the votes of the 17 Tory MPs who voted to rule out no deal (it may also be more acceptable to the DUP if permanent customs union and single market elements for GB mirrors the backstop for NI).
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,062
    felix said:

    felix said:

    In the long annals of Brexit insanity, the fact that Sunderland voted Leave is surely the most extraordinary fact of all.
    I come from there and my sister and family live there. My aunt and uncle are very enthusiatic Brexiters but to this day the rest of us have never understood the madness of the Sunderland vote.
    I don’t blame the voters.

    I blame the politicians that said Brexit would be easy and painless, that any criticisms of Brexit were Project Fear.

    The voters were sold a pup.
    Sorry but voters have to share lots of the blame for this. That's what democracy means. There were lies on both sides most of which continue today. Voters get the politicians they deserve.
    Quite. To be a democratic country is to own the consequences of a vote. The broad suggestion is that the mass of people are too stupid to understand branching consequences. Why bother with voting - just leave it to the clever ones. Where does that logic end?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,488

    Probably sod all to do with Brexit and more to do with the car industry struggling in general globally due to massive over production capabilities and the disruption of electric vehicles.

    You keep telling yourself all these bad news stories are nothing to do with Brexit....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,332

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If May gets her Deal through there will be a general election in May anyway as the DUP join with the Opposition and VONC the government (given the EU have again refused to backdown over the backstop) and May will lead the Tories as she has only said she will step down before a 2022 general election. If May wins that general election the next leader will be a younger figure, if May loses it is hard to see any Deal backer like Gove getting it and Boris must be strong favourite to take over as leader of the Opposition on a hard Brexit platform.

    If we end up with permanent Customs Union with single market elements as is possible if Tory anti No Deal MPs vote with Labour and the SNP then May will likely last until December after which it is hard to see how she will not be toppled with a hard Brexiteer like Boris replacing her.

    If we end up with No Deal then May might survive until 2022 with the ERG and DUP on board and either she wins and again a younger contender comes into play while even if she loses a candidate from the next generation by then might be favoured

    The alternative is May gets a last minute bit of paper on backstop from the EU that just about persuades the DUP.
    Well we can believe in unicorns of course but that is not very likely
    I am beginning to wonder. I have said repeatedly on here that the EU has told May there will be no changes on WA/backstop etc and that's that. The unicorns do not exist.

    But I wonder now whether it might dawn on the EU at this late hour that a No Deal combined with the recession in Europe and the situation in Italy, might break the whole thing.

    Will they find some form of unicorny words that allows most of the Tory party to back away from the edge?
    Not on any of the evidence so far
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,128

    OllyT said:

    Freggles said:


    What is the alternative? Not to build it at all?
    To build it in one of their other factories.
    In Japan now that they have a trade deal with the EU and don't have to pay 12% duty importing cars into the EU from Japan.

    So not to do with Brexit.
    It’s funny how all these project cancellations, headquarter transfers, staff moves, etc etc are never because of Brexit.
    "Nothing to do with Brexit" is a phrase we are going to hear a lot over the next few years and even if the odd one is true I doubt many will be fooled. People will want a scapegoat and Brexit will become the new EU and will get blamed for everything.
    Exactly. This may be nothing to do with Brexit - though even then Brexit can hardly have helped. But I am seeing similar decisions being made on a much smaller scale which certainly are to do with Brexit. Indeed in my own very modest way I have plans to open an office in Berlin which are entirely and unambiguously down to Brexit and nothing else. It will be pretty much a virtual operation just so I still have a legal presence in the EU. But it will mean money I might have spent in Britain going to Germany and will probably delay me hiring employee No 4.

    Anyone who thinks the short term hit we are going to take for leaving the EU is going to be small is simply not living in the real world.

    Agreed. How could it possibly be small? After 40 years of increasing integration and supply chain dependence etc etc.

  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 3,996
    tlg86 said:
    Perhaps if our businesses were selling cars to the rest of the world.......
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,488

    HYUFD said:

    If May gets her Deal through there will be a general election in May anyway as the DUP join with the Opposition and VONC the government (given the EU have again refused to backdown over the backstop) and May will lead the Tories as she has only said she will step down before a 2022 general election. If May wins that general election the next leader will be a younger figure, if May loses it is hard to see any Deal backer like Gove getting it and Boris must be strong favourite to take over as leader of the Opposition on a hard Brexit platform.

    If we end up with permanent Customs Union with single market elements as is possible if Tory anti No Deal MPs vote with Labour and the SNP then May will likely last until December after which it is hard to see how she will not be toppled with a hard Brexiteer like Boris replacing her.

    If we end up with No Deal then May might survive until 2022 with the ERG and DUP on board and either she wins and again a younger contender comes into play while even if she loses a candidate from the next generation by then might be favoured

    Let me stop you in your first sentence from which the rest of your speculation flows

    If TM deal passes it will need a good number of ERG members on board and the DUP may go along with the deal. They may decide to withdraw their confidence and supply, but bring down the government in favour of a possible Corbyn government is not at all certain

    Your views do follow a pattern with such certainty and recently you seem to think that TM and ERG will go all customs union and single market. The 40 plus labour mps are talking of voting for the deal as it is now and many are coming round to just get it done.

    IMHO TM deal will go through by the end of the month and there will not be a GE.

    (You notice I do say IMHO)

    If HY's certainly meant anything, Boris would be well ensconced in no. 10 by now.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,523

    OllyT said:

    Freggles said:


    What is the alternative? Not to build it at all?
    To build it in one of their other factories.
    In Japan now that they have a trade deal with the EU and don't have to pay 12% duty importing cars into the EU from Japan.

    So not to do with Brexit.
    It’s funny how all these project cancellations, headquarter transfers, staff moves, etc etc are never because of Brexit.
    "Nothing to do with Brexit" is a phrase we are going to hear a lot over the next few years and even if the odd one is true I doubt many will be fooled. People will want a scapegoat and Brexit will become the new EU and will get blamed for everything.
    Exactly. This may be nothing to do with Brexit - though even then Brexit can hardly have helped. But I am seeing similar decisions being made on a much smaller scale which certainly are to do with Brexit. Indeed in my own very modest way I have plans to open an office in Berlin which are entirely and unambiguously down to Brexit and nothing else. It will be pretty much a virtual operation just so I still have a legal presence in the EU. But it will mean money I might have spent in Britain going to Germany and will probably delay me hiring employee No 4.

    Anyone who thinks the short term hit we are going to take for leaving the EU is going to be small is simply not living in the real world.

    Yet on a macroeconomic level we have the highest employment rate EVER and are growing faster than any other European G7 nation. So how do you reconcile that?
This discussion has been closed.