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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Gove still heading the TMay successor betting as we get closer

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    If Theresa really is planning a June election* she should cut a deal with Jezza to get Labour to abstain on her WA in return for said GE.

    (*As it's in the MoS it's not at all likely to be true is it?)
    Hopefully not.
  • Options

    The PM's Chief of Staff reads PB

    twitter.com/GavinBarwell/status/1091783496408940545

    Everybody say hi Gavin....waves...
    Well he's not the first person who worked in Downing Street to read PB.

    I <3 Dave, George, and Ed.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,205
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Apparently based on May extending Article 50 for a month or 2, the Commons voting for her Deal in April and she then calls a general election for June to capitalise on her success (assuming the DUP will back a VONC in the government anyway if the Deal passes).

    Can see a few flaws in this cunning plan, starting with the assumption the Commons will ratify her Deal rather than a permanent CU or the possibility of No Deal
    Oh, for the love of God! No. Just no.
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    The PM's Chief of Staff reads PB

    Brandon Lewis retweeted OGH as well.
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    My view is that whenever the Tories next call a GE they will lose it.

    I'm afraid I don't see a way out of that.
    If the Tories call a Brexit related general election then it will be very horrible for the Tories.

    I can see the party fracturing into three different manifestos, with each one screaming they have a mandate.
  • Options

    The PM's Chief of Staff reads PB

    twitter.com/GavinBarwell/status/1091783496408940545

    Everybody say hi Gavin....waves...
    Well he's not the first person who worked in Downing Street to read PB.

    I <3 Dave, George, and Ed.</p>
    They obviously weren't reading it thoroughly enough at times ;-)
  • Options
    Mortimer said:


    If Theresa really is planning a June election* she should cut a deal with Jezza to get Labour to abstain on her WA in return for said GE.

    (*As it's in the MoS it's not at all likely to be true is it?)
    Agreed.
    A GE isn’t really in the PM’s gift anymore...
    I think the 2017 experience showed that it more-or-less is.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    where'd I put those smelling salts? :o:D:o:D
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    SeanT said:

    Anecdote alert: many of my Remainer friends have given up the fight. They know they won't get a 2nd vote, they accept democracy must prevail, they are resigned to what they perceive as an act of self-harm, but there ain't nothing to be done about it.

    A couple have become convinced Hard No Dealers. They have defaulted to a patriotic Fuck the EU position, a Blitz spirity we-will-survive-without-foie-gras attitude.

    This is entirely anecdotal, as I say, I am not sure it is supported in the polling, where Remain and Leave seem pretty much level pegging. But I report what I am definitely seeing amongst my peer group of well educated middle class, middle age Britons. Remainers are either defeatist, or actively switching sides.

    Logically that makes sense to me. There is the old saying of the zeal of the convert. It kind of makes sense to me that people who having given up on their old desires can swing around fully to what would be perceived as the opposite.

    3 years ago I was posting here backing Remain. Now I'm the most ok with no deal if the backstop can't be prevented. While people who have always backed Leaving are grabbing onto the deal as the best way to complete getting out smoothly and are OK with overlooking the issues with the backstop.
    I've always favoured either major reform of our EU relationship through a new treaty or to leave in a moderate, controlled way.

    It is weird to find people to my left and right outflanking me on my side, and totally overcooking Remain and becoming born again federalists on the other.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,942

    Mortimer said:


    If Theresa really is planning a June election* she should cut a deal with Jezza to get Labour to abstain on her WA in return for said GE.

    (*As it's in the MoS it's not at all likely to be true is it?)
    Agreed.
    A GE isn’t really in the PM’s gift anymore...
    I think the 2017 experience showed that it more-or-less is.
    That was true in 2017, granted.

    Given the number of backbench rebels on the WA, I’m not so sure anymore...

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    Mortimer said:


    If Theresa really is planning a June election* she should cut a deal with Jezza to get Labour to abstain on her WA in return for said GE.

    (*As it's in the MoS it's not at all likely to be true is it?)
    Agreed.
    A GE isn’t really in the PM’s gift anymore...
    I think the 2017 experience showed that it more-or-less is.
    Barring special circumstances (eg where LOTO has numbers to become PM) the Parliamentary vote is a mere technicality.
  • Options
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:


    If Theresa really is planning a June election* she should cut a deal with Jezza to get Labour to abstain on her WA in return for said GE.

    (*As it's in the MoS it's not at all likely to be true is it?)
    Agreed.
    A GE isn’t really in the PM’s gift anymore...
    I think the 2017 experience showed that it more-or-less is.
    That was true in 2017, granted.

    Given the number of backbench rebels on the WA, I’m not so sure anymore...

    Never mind the rebels, Corbyn can hardly whip against it, having been calling for it all year. Anyhow, history* shows that Labour can easily make up 20 points in the campaign.

    * small sample size
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,845

    SeanT said:

    Anecdote alert: many of my Remainer friends have given up the fight. They know they won't get a 2nd vote, they accept democracy must prevail, they are resigned to what they perceive as an act of self-harm, but there ain't nothing to be done about it.

    A couple have become convinced Hard No Dealers. They have defaulted to a patriotic Fuck the EU position, a Blitz spirity we-will-survive-without-foie-gras attitude.

    This is entirely anecdotal, as I say, I am not sure it is supported in the polling, where Remain and Leave seem pretty much level pegging. But I report what I am definitely seeing amongst my peer group of well educated middle class, middle age Britons. Remainers are either defeatist, or actively switching sides.

    Logically that makes sense to me. There is the old saying of the zeal of the convert. It kind of makes sense to me that people who having given up on their old desires can swing around fully to what would be perceived as the opposite.

    3 years ago I was posting here backing Remain. Now I'm the most ok with no deal if the backstop can't be prevented. While people who have always backed Leaving are grabbing onto the deal as the best way to complete getting out smoothly and are OK with overlooking the issues with the backstop.
    You can even see that with Matthew Parris, who hates Brexit, but thinks that if Brexit takes place, it should be No Deal, rather than striking any sort of bargain with the EU.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,435
    edited February 2019
    Mike usually takes his holiday end of May/start of June, just saying.

    As an aside, I start my new job the 13th of May, which means I have to act professionally for the first few weeks which means I won't be able to focus much on PB.

    I know Theresa hates me, just watch her call an election for June 6th.

    Which is also the 75th anniversary of D-Day, the day that makes me really proud to be British.

    Aside II, it was at the 50th anniversary of D-Day, which I attended, that really cemented my hatred of the French.

    As a callow 15 year old, they didn't know this Les Rosbif could understand their insults aimed at the Anglos and Les Rosbifs, honestly I think they would have prefered to have remained under German rule than be liberated by us.
  • Options

    The PM's Chief of Staff reads PB

    twitter.com/GavinBarwell/status/1091783496408940545

    Everybody say hi Gavin....waves...
    Well he's not the first person who worked in Downing Street to read PB.

    I <3 Dave, George, and Ed.</p>
    They obviously weren't reading it thoroughly enough at times ;-)
    Just saying the traffic from Number 10 and 1 Horse Guards Road use to increase when I was editing PB between 2010 and 2016.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,768

    The PM's Chief of Staff reads PB

    twitter.com/GavinBarwell/status/1091783496408940545

    Everybody say hi Gavin....waves...
    Hi, Gavin!
  • Options
    SeanT said:

    I wish them well. One of the potentially multiple upsides of Brexit is a long-overdue realignment of British politics. What has Caroline Flint got in common with Seamus Milne? Absolutely nothing. The right of the Labour party should unite with the Lib Dems: they could gain many seats in Scotland, be quietly pro-Rejoin the EU and loudly rejoin-the-EEA, and attract serious financial support from big business that wants, at least, to be part of the Single Market.

    The split on the right is bad, but it's only Europe that causes the schism. Once Brexit is done I expect the Tories to reunite, with only a few loony europhiles leaving (if Bojo becomes PM, I expect they could tolerate Govet et al)

    So UK politics would have three main parties, Tories, Liberal Labour, and Corbynite Labour.

    Liberal Labour could easily win the next election. They just need the cullions to go for it.

    The split in the Tory party is pretty severe and unbridgeable.

    You have the No Dealers (aka fuck business) vs the pro business wing.

    If No Deal is as bad as feared then the latter will leave the party, I mean for a lot of us, if we wanted to fuck the economy we would have joined the Labour party.
  • Options

    Mike usually takes his holiday end of May/start of June, just saying.

    As an aside, I start my new job the 13th of May, which means I have to act professionally for the first few weeks which means I won't be able to focus much on PB.

    I know Theresa hates me, just watch her call an election for June 6th.

    Which is also the 75th anniversary of D-Day, the day that makes me really proud to be British.

    Aside II, it was at the 50th anniversary of D-Day, which I attended, that really cemented my hatred for the French.

    As a callow 15 year old, they didn't know this Les Rosbif could understand their insults aimed at the Anglos and Les Rosbifs, honestly I think they would have prefered to have remained under German rule than be liberated by us.

    My dad watched the 1966 WC final in a French bar.

    Apparently the locals were furious with the result.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,768
    edited February 2019
    [Deleted: July not June. Stupid viewcode... :) ]
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    Scott_P said:
    We have had these stories for months and months - I will only believe it when I see it. Not going to get excited at the prospect of a Labour split until it happens. They have lacked the balls so far. Why should that change now?
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Mike usually takes his holiday end of May/start of June, just saying.

    As an aside, I start my new job the 13th of May, which means I have to act professionally for the first few weeks which means I won't be able to focus much on PB.

    I know Theresa hates me, just watch her call an election for June 6th.

    Which is also the 75th anniversary of D-Day, the day that makes me really proud to be British.

    Aside II, it was at the 50th anniversary of D-Day, which I attended, that really cemented my hatred of the French.

    As a callow 15 year old, they didn't know this Les Rosbif could understand their insults aimed at the Anglos and Les Rosbifs, honestly I think they would have prefered to have remained under German rule than be liberated by us.

    An election held on 6th June would have to be called before the results of the Local Elections due on 2nd May are known .As in 2017 the announcement would be in late April.
    Interesting Opinium poll tonight. It seems a bit counter intuytive and rather contradicts the Survation survey conducted over a similar period. More polls needed - time will tell.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,965

    Mike usually takes his holiday end of May/start of June, just saying.

    As an aside, I start my new job the 13th of May, which means I have to act professionally for the first few weeks which means I won't be able to focus much on PB.

    I know Theresa hates me, just watch her call an election for June 6th.

    Which is also the 75th anniversary of D-Day, the day that makes me really proud to be British.

    Aside II, it was at the 50th anniversary of D-Day, which I attended, that really cemented my hatred for the French.

    As a callow 15 year old, they didn't know this Les Rosbif could understand their insults aimed at the Anglos and Les Rosbifs, honestly I think they would have prefered to have remained under German rule than be liberated by us.

    My dad watched the 1966 WC final in a French bar.

    Apparently the locals were furious with the result.
    My parents (and myself in utero), watched it in a Munich bar. Apparently, the locals were even more furious!
  • Options
    SeanT said:

    I wish them well. One of the potentially multiple upsides of Brexit is a long-overdue realignment of British politics. What has Caroline Flint got in common with Seamus Milne? Absolutely nothing. The right of the Labour party should unite with the Lib Dems: they could gain many seats in Scotland, be quietly pro-Rejoin the EU and loudly rejoin-the-EEA, and attract serious financial support from big business that wants, at least, to be part of the Single Market.

    The split on the right is bad, but it's only Europe that causes the schism. Once Brexit is done I expect the Tories to reunite, with only a few loony europhiles leaving (if Bojo becomes PM, I expect they could tolerate Govet et al)

    So UK politics would have three main parties, Tories, Liberal Labour, and Corbynite Labour.

    Liberal Labour could easily win the next election. They just need the cullions to go for it.

    A Metropolitan LibLab and Old Labour split might make more sense.
  • Options
    SeanT said:

    I wish them well. One of the potentially multiple upsides of Brexit is a long-overdue realignment of British politics. What has Caroline Flint got in common with Seamus Milne? Absolutely nothing. The right of the Labour party should unite with the Lib Dems: they could gain many seats in Scotland, be quietly pro-Rejoin the EU and loudly rejoin-the-EEA, and attract serious financial support from big business that wants, at least, to be part of the Single Market.

    The split on the right is bad, but it's only Europe that causes the schism. Once Brexit is done I expect the Tories to reunite, with only a few loony europhiles leaving (if Bojo becomes PM, I expect they could tolerate Govet et al)

    So UK politics would have three main parties, Tories, Liberal Labour, and Corbynite Labour.

    Liberal Labour could easily win the next election. They just need the cullions to go for it.

    I could see a handful of Labour MPs becoming independent Labour.

    I think the talk about forming a new centre party is just that.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,060
    Quiz question. Who said this?

    Europe [must] compete on equal terms with the United States. As individual countries we have the talent, we have the skills, we have the resourcefulness. What we need are strengths which we can only find together. We must be stronger in new technologies. We must have the full benefit of a single large market.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited February 2019
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    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    Anecdote alert: many of my Remainer friends have given up the fight. They know they won't get a 2nd vote, they accept democracy must prevail, they are resigned to what they perceive as an act of self-harm, but there ain't nothing to be done about it.

    A couple have become convinced Hard No Dealers. They have defaulted to a patriotic Fuck the EU position, a Blitz spirity we-will-survive-without-foie-gras attitude.

    This is entirely anecdotal, as I say, I am not sure it is supported in the polling, where Remain and Leave seem pretty much level pegging. But I report what I am definitely seeing amongst my peer group of well educated middle class, middle age Britons. Remainers are either defeatist, or actively switching sides.

    Logically that makes sense to me. There is the old saying of the zeal of the convert. It kind of makes sense to me that people who having given up on their old desires can swing around fully to what would be perceived as the opposite.

    3 years ago I was posting here backing Remain. Now I'm the most ok with no deal if the backstop can't be prevented. While people who have always backed Leaving are grabbing onto the deal as the best way to complete getting out smoothly and are OK with overlooking the issues with the backstop.
    You can even see that with Matthew Parris, who hates Brexit, but thinks that if Brexit takes place, it should be No Deal, rather than striking any sort of bargain with the EU.
    But isn't that because he thinks he'll be vindicated and we'll rejoin again in short order?
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,845

    Quiz question. Who said this?

    Europe [must] compete on equal terms with the United States. As individual countries we have the talent, we have the skills, we have the resourcefulness. What we need are strengths which we can only find together. We must be stronger in new technologies. We must have the full benefit of a single large market.

    Sir Oswald Mosley.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,768
    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    Anecdote alert: many of my Remainer friends have given up the fight. They know they won't get a 2nd vote, they accept democracy must prevail, they are resigned to what they perceive as an act of self-harm, but there ain't nothing to be done about it.

    A couple have become convinced Hard No Dealers. They have defaulted to a patriotic Fuck the EU position, a Blitz spirity we-will-survive-without-foie-gras attitude.

    This is entirely anecdotal, as I say, I am not sure it is supported in the polling, where Remain and Leave seem pretty much level pegging. But I report what I am definitely seeing amongst my peer group of well educated middle class, middle age Britons. Remainers are either defeatist, or actively switching sides.

    Logically that makes sense to me. There is the old saying of the zeal of the convert. It kind of makes sense to me that people who having given up on their old desires can swing around fully to what would be perceived as the opposite.

    3 years ago I was posting here backing Remain. Now I'm the most ok with no deal if the backstop can't be prevented. While people who have always backed Leaving are grabbing onto the deal as the best way to complete getting out smoothly and are OK with overlooking the issues with the backstop.
    You can even see that with Matthew Parris, who hates Brexit, but thinks that if Brexit takes place, it should be No Deal, rather than striking any sort of bargain with the EU.
    I can never get over the fact that some people are that flexible in their voting. A similar phenomenon is LD voters who then voted for UKIP, or Obama voters who voted for Trump.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    SeanT said:

    I wish them well. One of the potentially multiple upsides of Brexit is a long-overdue realignment of British politics. What has Caroline Flint got in common with Seamus Milne? Absolutely nothing. The right of the Labour party should unite with the Lib Dems: they could gain many seats in Scotland, be quietly pro-Rejoin the EU and loudly rejoin-the-EEA, and attract serious financial support from big business that wants, at least, to be part of the Single Market.

    The split on the right is bad, but it's only Europe that causes the schism. Once Brexit is done I expect the Tories to reunite, with only a few loony europhiles leaving (if Bojo becomes PM, I expect they could tolerate Govet et al)

    So UK politics would have three main parties, Tories, Liberal Labour, and Corbynite Labour.

    Liberal Labour could easily win the next election. They just need the cullions to go for it.

    Soubry, Boles, Wollaston etc could also join a new Liberal centrist party, it would be a UK version of En Marche but that relies on the Tories going for hard Brexit and Labour sticking with Corbyn
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited February 2019
    Virginia Governor Ralph Northam has denied he was in a racist photo that appeared in his 1984 student yearbook page after initially apologising for it.

    But he said that on reflection with his family and friends he had concluded that he was not either of the people in the photo.

    "It has taken time to make sure that it's not me but I'm convinced I'm not on that photo," he said.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-47102614

    Errrh.....raises hand....mmmhhhh...just a question sir...
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870

    SeanT said:

    I wish them well. One of the potentially multiple upsides of Brexit is a long-overdue realignment of British politics. What has Caroline Flint got in common with Seamus Milne? Absolutely nothing. The right of the Labour party should unite with the Lib Dems: they could gain many seats in Scotland, be quietly pro-Rejoin the EU and loudly rejoin-the-EEA, and attract serious financial support from big business that wants, at least, to be part of the Single Market.

    The split on the right is bad, but it's only Europe that causes the schism. Once Brexit is done I expect the Tories to reunite, with only a few loony europhiles leaving (if Bojo becomes PM, I expect they could tolerate Govet et al)

    So UK politics would have three main parties, Tories, Liberal Labour, and Corbynite Labour.

    Liberal Labour could easily win the next election. They just need the cullions to go for it.

    I could see a handful of Labour MPs becoming independent Labour.

    I think the talk about forming a new centre party is just that.
    Yes. Note the careful use of “centre group”, not party, in the headline.

    But Labour is so tribal I expect they’d find themselves frozen out in short order and, by necessity, have to form an alliance with the Lib Dems.
  • Options

    Quiz question. Who said this?

    Europe [must] compete on equal terms with the United States. As individual countries we have the talent, we have the skills, we have the resourcefulness. What we need are strengths which we can only find together. We must be stronger in new technologies. We must have the full benefit of a single large market.

    Mrs Thatcher.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,060

    Quiz question. Who said this?

    Europe [must] compete on equal terms with the United States. As individual countries we have the talent, we have the skills, we have the resourcefulness. What we need are strengths which we can only find together. We must be stronger in new technologies. We must have the full benefit of a single large market.

    Mrs Thatcher.
    Bingo.
  • Options
    SeanT said:

    Mike usually takes his holiday end of May/start of June, just saying.

    As an aside, I start my new job the 13th of May, which means I have to act professionally for the first few weeks which means I won't be able to focus much on PB.

    I know Theresa hates me, just watch her call an election for June 6th.

    Which is also the 75th anniversary of D-Day, the day that makes me really proud to be British.

    Aside II, it was at the 50th anniversary of D-Day, which I attended, that really cemented my hatred for the French.

    As a callow 15 year old, they didn't know this Les Rosbif could understand their insults aimed at the Anglos and Les Rosbifs, honestly I think they would have prefered to have remained under German rule than be liberated by us.

    The French have never forgiven us for being unconquered by Nazism, even as they yielded to humiliating defeat and Occupation. Despite the fact weh we all know it was partly down to luck, and German ineptitude at Dunkirk, the fact is we stood firm and free, and they became Vichy France.

    I have a good and close French friend who, even now, finds it hard to contain his Anglophobia when this subject arises. He's a sound, moral and intelligent man, and he knows his feelings are nuts, but this stuff is visceral. Reflexive.

    On the upside I think the next French generation is much less haughty and prideful and lacks this neurosis (though they have developed new neuroses vis-a-vis big business, the Anglosphere and the death of global French-ness)
    The death of global Frenchness and the triumph of Englishness will be a continual sore point.

    French influence is reduced to some shitholes in Africa and Haiti and those will likely be lost during this century.
  • Options

    SeanT said:

    Mike usually takes his holiday end of May/start of June, just saying.

    As an aside, I start my new job the 13th of May, which means I have to act professionally for the first few weeks which means I won't be able to focus much on PB.

    I know Theresa hates me, just watch her call an election for June 6th.

    Which is also the 75th anniversary of D-Day, the day that makes me really proud to be British.

    Aside II, it was at the 50th anniversary of D-Day, which I attended, that really cemented my hatred for the French.

    As a callow 15 year old, they didn't know this Les Rosbif could understand their insults aimed at the Anglos and Les Rosbifs, honestly I think they would have prefered to have remained under German rule than be liberated by us.

    The French have never forgiven us for being unconquered by Nazism, even as they yielded to humiliating defeat and Occupation. Despite the fact weh we all know it was partly down to luck, and German ineptitude at Dunkirk, the fact is we stood firm and free, and they became Vichy France.

    I have a good and close French friend who, even now, finds it hard to contain his Anglophobia when this subject arises. He's a sound, moral and intelligent man, and he knows his feelings are nuts, but this stuff is visceral. Reflexive.

    On the upside I think the next French generation is much less haughty and prideful and lacks this neurosis (though they have developed new neuroses vis-a-vis big business, the Anglosphere and the death of global French-ness)
    The death of global Frenchness and the triumph of Englishness will be a continual sore point.

    French influence is reduced to some shitholes in Africa and Haiti and those will likely be lost during this century.
    Alright Donald...
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    Scott_P said:
    I'd like to read Dura Ace's views on the Williamson story.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,845

    Mike usually takes his holiday end of May/start of June, just saying.

    As an aside, I start my new job the 13th of May, which means I have to act professionally for the first few weeks which means I won't be able to focus much on PB.

    I know Theresa hates me, just watch her call an election for June 6th.

    Which is also the 75th anniversary of D-Day, the day that makes me really proud to be British.

    Aside II, it was at the 50th anniversary of D-Day, which I attended, that really cemented my hatred of the French.

    As a callow 15 year old, they didn't know this Les Rosbif could understand their insults aimed at the Anglos and Les Rosbifs, honestly I think they would have prefered to have remained under German rule than be liberated by us.

    I think it's complicated. I rather like the dignity and formality of the French (you wouldn't get a French estate agent phoning you up out of the blue, and pretending to be your best friend).

    But, what happened to them on WWII was grossly humiliating. Their army just fell apart (so did ours, but our navy and Air Force were sound)
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,121
    Scott_P said:
    There are only three words that the PM wants her MPs to read in that piece:

    "deselection strategy meeting"

    Are you with us - or against us? Well that depends on one thing: whether you vote for my deal....
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,965

    SeanT said:

    I wish them well. One of the potentially multiple upsides of Brexit is a long-overdue realignment of British politics. What has Caroline Flint got in common with Seamus Milne? Absolutely nothing. The right of the Labour party should unite with the Lib Dems: they could gain many seats in Scotland, be quietly pro-Rejoin the EU and loudly rejoin-the-EEA, and attract serious financial support from big business that wants, at least, to be part of the Single Market.

    The split on the right is bad, but it's only Europe that causes the schism. Once Brexit is done I expect the Tories to reunite, with only a few loony europhiles leaving (if Bojo becomes PM, I expect they could tolerate Govet et al)

    So UK politics would have three main parties, Tories, Liberal Labour, and Corbynite Labour.

    Liberal Labour could easily win the next election. They just need the cullions to go for it.

    I could see a handful of Labour MPs becoming independent Labour.

    I think the talk about forming a new centre party is just that.
    A handful already have for various reasons. Field, Lewis and Woodcock could, with a dozen others be the 4th biggest group in the Commons. (Not sure O'Mara and Onasanya would be welcome).
    However, I'll believe it when I see it, and it is a long way from there to attracting a membership and an infrastructure to run candidates.
    Talk of joining the LibDems is premature too. They would radically alter the make up of a Party which has changed much since the coalition. I believe they could have sat quite comfortably there under Kennedy.
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Scott_P said:
    There are only three words that the PM wants her MPs to read in that piece:

    "deselection strategy meeting"

    Are you with us - or against us? Well that depends on one thing: whether you vote for my deal....
    I suppose that if the Tories start deselecting MPs it will become easier for Labour to do likewise!
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,845

    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    Anecdote alert: many of my Remainer friends have given up the fight. They know they won't get a 2nd vote, they accept democracy must prevail, they are resigned to what they perceive as an act of self-harm, but there ain't nothing to be done about it.

    A couple have become convinced Hard No Dealers. They have defaulted to a patriotic Fuck the EU position, a Blitz spirity we-will-survive-without-foie-gras attitude.

    This is entirely anecdotal, as I say, I am not sure it is supported in the polling, where Remain and Leave seem pretty much level pegging. But I report what I am definitely seeing amongst my peer group of well educated middle class, middle age Britons. Remainers are either defeatist, or actively switching sides.

    Logically that makes sense to me. There is the old saying of the zeal of the convert. It kind of makes sense to me that people who having given up on their old desires can swing around fully to what would be perceived as the opposite.

    3 years ago I was posting here backing Remain. Now I'm the most ok with no deal if the backstop can't be prevented. While people who have always backed Leaving are grabbing onto the deal as the best way to complete getting out smoothly and are OK with overlooking the issues with the backstop.
    You can even see that with Matthew Parris, who hates Brexit, but thinks that if Brexit takes place, it should be No Deal, rather than striking any sort of bargain with the EU.
    But isn't that because he thinks he'll be vindicated and we'll rejoin again in short order?
    Probably. But, it's somewhat similar to people voting Liberal in 1974 because they didn't like the way the Conservativex treated Enoch Powell.
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    dixiedean said:

    SeanT said:

    I wish them well. One of the potentially multiple upsides of Brexit is a long-overdue realignment of British politics. What has Caroline Flint got in common with Seamus Milne? Absolutely nothing. The right of the Labour party should unite with the Lib Dems: they could gain many seats in Scotland, be quietly pro-Rejoin the EU and loudly rejoin-the-EEA, and attract serious financial support from big business that wants, at least, to be part of the Single Market.

    The split on the right is bad, but it's only Europe that causes the schism. Once Brexit is done I expect the Tories to reunite, with only a few loony europhiles leaving (if Bojo becomes PM, I expect they could tolerate Govet et al)

    So UK politics would have three main parties, Tories, Liberal Labour, and Corbynite Labour.

    Liberal Labour could easily win the next election. They just need the cullions to go for it.

    I could see a handful of Labour MPs becoming independent Labour.

    I think the talk about forming a new centre party is just that.
    A handful already have for various reasons. Field, Lewis and Woodcock could, with a dozen others be the 4th biggest group in the Commons. (Not sure O'Mara and Onasanya would be welcome).
    However, I'll believe it when I see it, and it is a long way from there to attracting a membership and an infrastructure to run candidates.
    Talk of joining the LibDems is premature too. They would radically alter the make up of a Party which has changed much since the coalition. I believe they could have sat quite comfortably there under Kennedy.
    Lewis and Woodcock appear to have skeletons in their cupboards and are likely to be perceived as having resigned the Labour whip for the wrong reason.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SeanT said:

    But once Brexit is done, and business adapts (as business always does, as that is the business of business) what divides you and me apart from a rancid old feud we both want to forget? Almost nothing, I think.

    So the right will reunite. There is no fundamental split APART from Europe.

    Those statements are not compatible.

    If the feud over Europe fucks business, business are not going to rally back to the party that did that (and neither are the activists)

    I would vote for a party with Cameron, Osborne.

    I do not intend to vote for a party with BoZo and the rest of the clowns.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,845
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    I wish them well. One of the potentially multiple upsides of Brexit is a long-overdue realignment of British politics. What has Caroline Flint got in common with Seamus Milne? Absolutely nothing. The right of the Labour party should unite with the Lib Dems: they could gain many seats in Scotland, be quietly pro-Rejoin the EU and loudly rejoin-the-EEA, and attract serious financial support from big business that wants, at least, to be part of the Single Market.

    The split on the right is bad, but it's only Europe that causes the schism. Once Brexit is done I expect the Tories to reunite, with only a few loony europhiles leaving (if Bojo becomes PM, I expect they could tolerate Govet et al)

    So UK politics would have three main parties, Tories, Liberal Labour, and Corbynite Labour.

    Liberal Labour could easily win the next election. They just need the cullions to go for it.

    The split in the Tory party is pretty severe and unbridgeable.

    You have the No Dealers (aka fuck business) vs the pro business wing.

    If No Deal is as bad as feared then the latter will leave the party, I mean for a lot of us, if we wanted to fuck the economy we would have joined the Labour party.
    It seems unbridgeable now. But is it? e.g. take you and me.

    I would accept No Deal rather than no Brexit (I'd far rather have a decent Deal, or EFTA, or whatever, but British democracy must prevail and if the choice is honour the vote or not, then we must honour the vote). By contrast you abhor No Deal and despair of the eurosceptic ideologues. and fair enough (I sometimes empathise)

    But once Brexit is done, and business adapts (as business always does, as that is the business of business) what divides you and me apart from a rancid old feud we both want to forget? Almost nothing, I think.

    So the right will reunite. There is no fundamental split APART from Europe.

    On the Left the split is much much deeper, it goes so deep it disinters hideous corpses like anti-Semitism.
    Rancid old feuds can last a long time. They destroyed the old Liberal Party.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    edited February 2019
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    I wish them well. One of the potentially multiple upsides of Brexit is a long-overdue realignment of British politics. What has Caroline Flint got in common with Seamus Milne? Absolutely nothing. The right of the Labour party should unite with the Lib Dems: they could gain many seats in Scotland, be quietly pro-Rejoin the EU and loudly rejoin-the-EEA, and attract serious financial support from big business that wants, at least, to be part of the Single Market.

    The split on the right is bad, but it's only Europe that causes the schism. Once Brexit is done I expect the Tories to reunite, with only a few loony europhiles leaving (if Bojo becomes PM, I expect they could tolerate Govet et al)

    So UK politics would have three main parties, Tories, Liberal Labour, and Corbynite Labour.

    Liberal Labour could easily win the next election. They just need the cullions to go for it.

    I could see a handful of Labour MPs becoming independent Labour.

    I think the talk about forming a new centre party is just that.
    Sadly, I agree. The inertia is probably too great, plus the lock of the unions on funding is a huge drag on any left wing dynamism,

    But Britain desperately needs new parties with a new approach. I have not given up entirely. I'd like to vote for a pro-Single Market Hannanite, Singapore-on-Thames libertarian socially-liberal eurosceptic party. Maybe it would get 5-10% of the vote, 15% max. But in a reformed, post FPTP parliament it would have influence.

    As I say, one of the tantalising potential upsides of Brexit is that it will break the logjam that prevents this reframing of British party politics
    FPTP makes the emergence of new sustainable parties very difficult, even En Marche was able to use the French second ballot system, whereby you vote with your heart in the first round and your head in the second round once the field has been narrowed down
  • Options
    dixiedean said:

    SeanT said:

    I wish them well. One of the potentially multiple upsides of Brexit is a long-overdue realignment of British politics. What has Caroline Flint got in common with Seamus Milne? Absolutely nothing. The right of the Labour party should unite with the Lib Dems: they could gain many seats in Scotland, be quietly pro-Rejoin the EU and loudly rejoin-the-EEA, and attract serious financial support from big business that wants, at least, to be part of the Single Market.

    The split on the right is bad, but it's only Europe that causes the schism. Once Brexit is done I expect the Tories to reunite, with only a few loony europhiles leaving (if Bojo becomes PM, I expect they could tolerate Govet et al)

    So UK politics would have three main parties, Tories, Liberal Labour, and Corbynite Labour.

    Liberal Labour could easily win the next election. They just need the cullions to go for it.

    I could see a handful of Labour MPs becoming independent Labour.

    I think the talk about forming a new centre party is just that.
    A handful already have for various reasons. Field, Lewis and Woodcock could, with a dozen others be the 4th biggest group in the Commons. (Not sure O'Mara and Onasanya would be welcome).
    However, I'll believe it when I see it, and it is a long way from there to attracting a membership and an infrastructure to run candidates.
    Talk of joining the LibDems is premature too. They would radically alter the make up of a Party which has changed much since the coalition. I believe they could have sat quite comfortably there under Kennedy.
    I could see them softly caucusing with each other to influence official Labour and then one day rejoin when it sorts itself out.

    But, I wouldn't expect a full new party with all the infrastructure and apparatus as it's very hard and would cross the Rubicon for good.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,845
    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    But once Brexit is done, and business adapts (as business always does, as that is the business of business) what divides you and me apart from a rancid old feud we both want to forget? Almost nothing, I think.

    So the right will reunite. There is no fundamental split APART from Europe.

    Those statements are not compatible.

    If the feud over Europe fucks business, business are not going to rally back to the party that did that (and neither are the activists)

    I would vote for a party with Cameron, Osborne.

    I do not intend to vote for a party with BoZo and the rest of the clowns.
    In that scenario, business is left with nobody.
  • Options
    Sean_F said:

    Mike usually takes his holiday end of May/start of June, just saying.

    As an aside, I start my new job the 13th of May, which means I have to act professionally for the first few weeks which means I won't be able to focus much on PB.

    I know Theresa hates me, just watch her call an election for June 6th.

    Which is also the 75th anniversary of D-Day, the day that makes me really proud to be British.

    Aside II, it was at the 50th anniversary of D-Day, which I attended, that really cemented my hatred of the French.

    As a callow 15 year old, they didn't know this Les Rosbif could understand their insults aimed at the Anglos and Les Rosbifs, honestly I think they would have prefered to have remained under German rule than be liberated by us.

    I think it's complicated. I rather like the dignity and formality of the French (you wouldn't get a French estate agent phoning you up out of the blue, and pretending to be your best friend).

    But, what happened to them on WWII was grossly humiliating. Their army just fell apart (so did ours, but our navy and Air Force were sound)
    The attack on the French fleet at Mers-el-Kébir also rankles with them.

    Churchill was right, you cannot trust a nation of collaborators to do the right thing.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,090
    edited February 2019
    Fenman said:
    Lol.

    Perhaps they'll do a George V and quietly ignore the request in case the Windsors bring the contagion with them.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,965
    justin124 said:

    dixiedean said:

    SeanT said:

    I wish them well. One of the potentially multiple upsides of Brexit is a long-overdue realignment of British politics. What has Caroline Flint got in common with Seamus Milne? Absolutely nothing. The right of the Labour party should unite with the Lib Dems: they could gain many seats in Scotland, be quietly pro-Rejoin the EU and loudly rejoin-the-EEA, and attract serious financial support from big business that wants, at least, to be part of the Single Market.

    The split on the right is bad, but it's only Europe that causes the schism. Once Brexit is done I expect the Tories to reunite, with only a few loony europhiles leaving (if Bojo becomes PM, I expect they could tolerate Govet et al)

    So UK politics would have three main parties, Tories, Liberal Labour, and Corbynite Labour.

    Liberal Labour could easily win the next election. They just need the cullions to go for it.

    I could see a handful of Labour MPs becoming independent Labour.

    I think the talk about forming a new centre party is just that.
    A handful already have for various reasons. Field, Lewis and Woodcock could, with a dozen others be the 4th biggest group in the Commons. (Not sure O'Mara and Onasanya would be welcome).
    However, I'll believe it when I see it, and it is a long way from there to attracting a membership and an infrastructure to run candidates.
    Talk of joining the LibDems is premature too. They would radically alter the make up of a Party which has changed much since the coalition. I believe they could have sat quite comfortably there under Kennedy.
    Lewis and Woodcock appear to have skeletons in their cupboards and are likely to be perceived as having resigned the Labour whip for the wrong reason.
    Allegedly.
    However, my point was,that such a group already exists, just not formally. They have already passed PC as the 6th biggest in the Commons.
  • Options
    Sean_F said:

    Mike usually takes his holiday end of May/start of June, just saying.

    As an aside, I start my new job the 13th of May, which means I have to act professionally for the first few weeks which means I won't be able to focus much on PB.

    I know Theresa hates me, just watch her call an election for June 6th.

    Which is also the 75th anniversary of D-Day, the day that makes me really proud to be British.

    Aside II, it was at the 50th anniversary of D-Day, which I attended, that really cemented my hatred of the French.

    As a callow 15 year old, they didn't know this Les Rosbif could understand their insults aimed at the Anglos and Les Rosbifs, honestly I think they would have prefered to have remained under German rule than be liberated by us.

    I think it's complicated. I rather like the dignity and formality of the French (you wouldn't get a French estate agent phoning you up out of the blue, and pretending to be your best friend).

    But, what happened to them on WWII was grossly humiliating. Their army just fell apart (so did ours, but our navy and Air Force were sound)
    I wouldn't say it fell apart, it was just outclassed and withdrew in good order. However, it didn't ever best the Germans subsequently without very clear superiority.

    The utter Gallic dickheadery of De Gaulle is hard to explain.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Sean_F said:

    In that scenario, business is left with nobody.

    Yes

    The inevitable consequence of Brexit as delivered by Tezza and the headbangers
  • Options
    Sean_F said:

    Mike usually takes his holiday end of May/start of June, just saying.

    As an aside, I start my new job the 13th of May, which means I have to act professionally for the first few weeks which means I won't be able to focus much on PB.

    I know Theresa hates me, just watch her call an election for June 6th.

    Which is also the 75th anniversary of D-Day, the day that makes me really proud to be British.

    Aside II, it was at the 50th anniversary of D-Day, which I attended, that really cemented my hatred of the French.

    As a callow 15 year old, they didn't know this Les Rosbif could understand their insults aimed at the Anglos and Les Rosbifs, honestly I think they would have prefered to have remained under German rule than be liberated by us.

    I think it's complicated. I rather like the dignity and formality of the French (you wouldn't get a French estate agent phoning you up out of the blue, and pretending to be your best friend).

    But, what happened to them on WWII was grossly humiliating. Their army just fell apart (so did ours, but our navy and Air Force were sound)
    More importantly, the several trillion litres of water in the Channel didn't drain away.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,845

    Sean_F said:

    Mike usually takes his holiday end of May/start of June, just saying.

    As an aside, I start my new job the 13th of May, which means I have to act professionally for the first few weeks which means I won't be able to focus much on PB.

    I know Theresa hates me, just watch her call an election for June 6th.

    Which is also the 75th anniversary of D-Day, the day that makes me really proud to be British.

    Aside II, it was at the 50th anniversary of D-Day, which I attended, that really cemented my hatred of the French.

    As a callow 15 year old, they didn't know this Les Rosbif could understand their insults aimed at the Anglos and Les Rosbifs, honestly I think they would have prefered to have remained under German rule than be liberated by us.

    I think it's complicated. I rather like the dignity and formality of the French (you wouldn't get a French estate agent phoning you up out of the blue, and pretending to be your best friend).

    But, what happened to them on WWII was grossly humiliating. Their army just fell apart (so did ours, but our navy and Air Force were sound)
    The attack on the French fleet at Mers-el-Kébir also rankles with them.

    Churchill was right, you cannot trust a nation of collaborators to do the right thing.
    Churchill was unfair. Every occupied country has collaborators. Had we been occupied, we 'd have had a British SS, and opportunists.
  • Options
    dixiedean said:

    Mike usually takes his holiday end of May/start of June, just saying.

    As an aside, I start my new job the 13th of May, which means I have to act professionally for the first few weeks which means I won't be able to focus much on PB.

    I know Theresa hates me, just watch her call an election for June 6th.

    Which is also the 75th anniversary of D-Day, the day that makes me really proud to be British.

    Aside II, it was at the 50th anniversary of D-Day, which I attended, that really cemented my hatred for the French.

    As a callow 15 year old, they didn't know this Les Rosbif could understand their insults aimed at the Anglos and Les Rosbifs, honestly I think they would have prefered to have remained under German rule than be liberated by us.

    My dad watched the 1966 WC final in a French bar.

    Apparently the locals were furious with the result.
    My parents (and myself in utero), watched it in a Munich bar. Apparently, the locals were even more furious!
    I watched it in a bar in Cologne. It was great fun, absolutely fine. The Germans were pleasantly surprised they'd got as far as the final,
  • Options
    mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    I wish them well. One of the potentially multiple upsides of Brexit is a long-overdue realignment of British politics. What has Caroline Flint got in common with Seamus Milne? Absolutely nothing. The right of the Labour party should unite with the Lib Dems: they could gain many seats in Scotland, be quietly pro-Rejoin the EU and loudly rejoin-the-EEA, and attract serious financial support from big business that wants, at least, to be part of the Single Market.

    The split on the right is bad, but it's only Europe that causes the schism. Once Brexit is done I expect the Tories to reunite, with only a few loony europhiles leaving (if Bojo becomes PM, I expect they could tolerate Govet et al)

    So UK politics would have three main parties, Tories, Liberal Labour, and Corbynite Labour.

    Liberal Labour could easily win the next election. They just need the cullions to go for it.

    Soubry, Boles, Wollaston etc could also join a new Liberal centrist party, it would be a UK version of En Marche but that relies on the Tories going for hard Brexit and Labour sticking with Corbyn
    It’s odd how the only recent examples of Conservative MPs joining another party are the UKIP entryist type and yet the working assumption always seems to be that the centre right is disloyal.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,060
    matt said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    I wish them well. One of the potentially multiple upsides of Brexit is a long-overdue realignment of British politics. What has Caroline Flint got in common with Seamus Milne? Absolutely nothing. The right of the Labour party should unite with the Lib Dems: they could gain many seats in Scotland, be quietly pro-Rejoin the EU and loudly rejoin-the-EEA, and attract serious financial support from big business that wants, at least, to be part of the Single Market.

    The split on the right is bad, but it's only Europe that causes the schism. Once Brexit is done I expect the Tories to reunite, with only a few loony europhiles leaving (if Bojo becomes PM, I expect they could tolerate Govet et al)

    So UK politics would have three main parties, Tories, Liberal Labour, and Corbynite Labour.

    Liberal Labour could easily win the next election. They just need the cullions to go for it.

    Soubry, Boles, Wollaston etc could also join a new Liberal centrist party, it would be a UK version of En Marche but that relies on the Tories going for hard Brexit and Labour sticking with Corbyn
    It’s odd how the only recent examples of Conservative MPs joining another party are the UKIP entryist type and yet the working assumption always seems to be that the centre right is disloyal.
    And it was coordinated by figures who are still in the Conservative party on the Eurosceptic wing.
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited February 2019
    dixiedean said:

    justin124 said:

    dixiedean said:

    SeanT said:

    I wish them well. One of the potentially multiple upsides of Brexit is a long-overdue realignment of British politics. What has Caroline Flint got in common with Seamus Milne? Absolutely nothing. The right of the Labour party should unite with the Lib Dems: they could gain many seats in Scotland, be quietly pro-Rejoin the EU and loudly rejoin-the-EEA, and attract serious financial support from big business that wants, at least, to be part of the Single Market.

    The split on the right is bad, but it's only Europe that causes the schism. Once Brexit is done I expect the Tories to reunite, with only a few loony europhiles leaving (if Bojo becomes PM, I expect they could tolerate Govet et al)

    So UK politics would have three main parties, Tories, Liberal Labour, and Corbynite Labour.

    Liberal Labour could easily win the next election. They just need the cullions to go for it.

    I could see a handful of Labour MPs becoming independent Labour.

    I think the talk about forming a new centre party is just that.
    A handful already have for various reasons. Field, Lewis and Woodcock could, with a dozen others be the 4th biggest group in the Commons. (Not sure O'Mara and Onasanya would be welcome).
    However, I'll believe it when I see it, and it is a long way from there to attracting a membership and an infrastructure to run candidates.
    Talk of joining the LibDems is premature too. They would radically alter the make up of a Party which has changed much since the coalition. I believe they could have sat quite comfortably there under Kennedy.
    Lewis and Woodcock appear to have skeletons in their cupboards and are likely to be perceived as having resigned the Labour whip for the wrong reason.
    Allegedly.
    However, my point was,that such a group already exists, just not formally. They have already passed PC as the 6th biggest in the Commons.
    But they are not exactly in agreement on key policy issues - eg Field is a Brexiteer ( and likely to be close to retirement anyway). Personally I would not hesitate to vote for Frank Field - he is in politics for the right reasons.
  • Options
    mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    edited February 2019

    matt said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    I wish them well. One of the potentially multiple upsides of Brexit is a long-overdue realignment of British politics. What has Caroline Flint got in common with Seamus Milne? Absolutely nothing. The right of the Labour party should unite with the Lib Dems: they could gain many seats in Scotland, be quietly pro-Rejoin the EU and loudly rejoin-the-EEA, and attract serious financial support from big business that wants, at least, to be part of the Single Market.

    The split on the right is bad, but it's only Europe that causes the schism. Once Brexit is done I expect the Tories to reunite, with only a few loony europhiles leaving (if Bojo becomes PM, I expect they could tolerate Govet et al)

    So UK politics would have three main parties, Tories, Liberal Labour, and Corbynite Labour.

    Liberal Labour could easily win the next election. They just need the cullions to go for it.

    Soubry, Boles, Wollaston etc could also join a new Liberal centrist party, it would be a UK version of En Marche but that relies on the Tories going for hard Brexit and Labour sticking with Corbyn
    It’s odd how the only recent examples of Conservative MPs joining another party are the UKIP entryist type and yet the working assumption always seems to be that the centre right is disloyal.
    And it was coordinated by figures who are still in the Conservative party on the Eurosceptic wing.
    You have evidence of that?
  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Mike usually takes his holiday end of May/start of June, just saying.

    As an aside, I start my new job the 13th of May, which means I have to act professionally for the first few weeks which means I won't be able to focus much on PB.

    I know Theresa hates me, just watch her call an election for June 6th.

    Which is also the 75th anniversary of D-Day, the day that makes me really proud to be British.

    Aside II, it was at the 50th anniversary of D-Day, which I attended, that really cemented my hatred of the French.

    As a callow 15 year old, they didn't know this Les Rosbif could understand their insults aimed at the Anglos and Les Rosbifs, honestly I think they would have prefered to have remained under German rule than be liberated by us.

    I think it's complicated. I rather like the dignity and formality of the French (you wouldn't get a French estate agent phoning you up out of the blue, and pretending to be your best friend).

    But, what happened to them on WWII was grossly humiliating. Their army just fell apart (so did ours, but our navy and Air Force were sound)
    The attack on the French fleet at Mers-el-Kébir also rankles with them.

    Churchill was right, you cannot trust a nation of collaborators to do the right thing.
    Churchill was unfair. Every occupied country has collaborators. Had we been occupied, we 'd have had a British SS, and opportunists.
    I think the channel Islands proves your point.
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,153

    dixiedean said:

    Mike usually takes his holiday end of May/start of June, just saying.

    As an aside, I start my new job the 13th of May, which means I have to act professionally for the first few weeks which means I won't be able to focus much on PB.

    I know Theresa hates me, just watch her call an election for June 6th.

    Which is also the 75th anniversary of D-Day, the day that makes me really proud to be British.

    Aside II, it was at the 50th anniversary of D-Day, which I attended, that really cemented my hatred for the French.

    As a callow 15 year old, they didn't know this Les Rosbif could understand their insults aimed at the Anglos and Les Rosbifs, honestly I think they would have prefered to have remained under German rule than be liberated by us.

    My dad watched the 1966 WC final in a French bar.

    Apparently the locals were furious with the result.
    My parents (and myself in utero), watched it in a Munich bar. Apparently, the locals were even more furious!
    I watched it in a bar in Cologne. It was great fun, absolutely fine. The Germans were pleasantly surprised they'd got as far as the final,
    I saw it in Copenhagen in a stopover en route from Tilbury to Helsinki. The Danes were very pleased with the result.
  • Options
    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    I wish them well. One of the potentially multiple upsides of Brexit is a long-overdue realignment of British politics. What has Caroline Flint got in common with Seamus Milne? Absolutely nothing. The right of the Labour party should unite with the Lib Dems: they could gain many seats in Scotland, be quietly pro-Rejoin the EU and loudly rejoin-the-EEA, and attract serious financial support from big business that wants, at least, to be part of the Single Market.

    The split on the right is bad, but it's only Europe that causes the schism. Once Brexit is done I expect the Tories to reunite, with only a few loony europhiles leaving (if Bojo becomes PM, I expect they could tolerate Govet et al)

    So UK politics would have three main parties, Tories, Liberal Labour, and Corbynite Labour.

    Liberal Labour could easily win the next election. They just need the cullions to go for it.

    I could see a handful of Labour MPs becoming independent Labour.

    I think the talk about forming a new centre party is just that.
    Sadly, I agree. The inertia is probably too great, plus the lock of the unions on funding is a huge drag on any left wing dynamism,

    But Britain desperately needs new parties with a new approach. I have not given up entirely. I'd like to vote for a pro-Single Market Hannanite, Singapore-on-Thames libertarian socially-liberal eurosceptic party. Maybe it would get 5-10% of the vote, 15% max. But in a reformed, post FPTP parliament it would have influence.

    As I say, one of the tantalising potential upsides of Brexit is that it will break the logjam that prevents this reframing of British party politics
    FPTP makes the emergence of new sustainable parties very difficult, even En Marche was able to use the French second ballot system, whereby you vote with your heart in the first round and your head in the second round once the field has been narrowed down
    Very difficult, but not impossible. Labour eclipsed the Liberals under FPTP. A no-deal Brexit could be the sort of seismic shock to cause similar change.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,060
    matt said:

    matt said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    I wish them well. One of the potentially multiple upsides of Brexit is a long-overdue realignment of British politics. What has Caroline Flint got in common with Seamus Milne? Absolutely nothing. The right of the Labour party should unite with the Lib Dems: they could gain many seats in Scotland, be quietly pro-Rejoin the EU and loudly rejoin-the-EEA, and attract serious financial support from big business that wants, at least, to be part of the Single Market.

    The split on the right is bad, but it's only Europe that causes the schism. Once Brexit is done I expect the Tories to reunite, with only a few loony europhiles leaving (if Bojo becomes PM, I expect they could tolerate Govet et al)

    So UK politics would have three main parties, Tories, Liberal Labour, and Corbynite Labour.

    Liberal Labour could easily win the next election. They just need the cullions to go for it.

    Soubry, Boles, Wollaston etc could also join a new Liberal centrist party, it would be a UK version of En Marche but that relies on the Tories going for hard Brexit and Labour sticking with Corbyn
    It’s odd how the only recent examples of Conservative MPs joining another party are the UKIP entryist type and yet the working assumption always seems to be that the centre right is disloyal.
    And it was coordinated by figures who are still in the Conservative party on the Eurosceptic wing.
    You have evidence of that?
    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/douglas-carswell-infiltrated-ukip-to-neutralise-nigel-farage_uk_57f0ff98e4b0397f73b9ce1a

    Hannan said: “Douglas felt he could hold his seat under pretty much any colours and prevent Ukip losing us the referendum with a negative campaign.”

    Carswell and Hannan concocted the plot during secret meetings in the Tate Britain art gallery on the banks of the Thames.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited February 2019
    In another briefing on South Asia, Trump’s advisors brought a map of the region from Afghanistan to Bangladesh, according to intelligence officers with knowledge of the meeting and congressional officials who were briefed on it. Trump, they said, pointed at the map and said he knew that Nepal was part of India, only to be told that it is an independent nation. When said he was familiar with Bhutan and knew it, too, was part of India, his briefers told him that Bhutan was an independent kingdom.

    Easy mistake to make...a former UK foreign secretary had a similar grasp on such geography....
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    Have the Us intelligence services not realized, what they need to do is hack Trump's feed of Fox News and insert all this info?
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    mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    matt said:

    matt said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    I wish them well. One of the potentially multiple upsides of Brexit is a long-overdue realignment of British politics. What has Caroline Flint got in common with Seamus Milne? Absolutely nothing. The right of the Labour party should unite with the Lib Dems: they could gain many seats in Scotland, be quietly pro-Rejoin the EU and loudly rejoin-the-EEA, and attract serious financial support from big business that wants, at least, to be part of the Single Market.

    The split on the right is bad, but it's only Europe that causes the schism. Once Brexit is done I expect the Tories to reunite, with only a few loony europhiles leaving (if Bojo becomes PM, I expect they could tolerate Govet et al)

    So UK politics would have three main parties, Tories, Liberal Labour, and Corbynite Labour.

    Liberal Labour could easily win the next election. They just need the cullions to go for it.

    Soubry, Boles, Wollaston etc could also join a new Liberal centrist party, it would be a UK version of En Marche but that relies on the Tories going for hard Brexit and Labour sticking with Corbyn
    It’s odd how the only recent examples of Conservative MPs joining another party are the UKIP entryist type and yet the working assumption always seems to be that the centre right is disloyal.
    And it was coordinated by figures who are still in the Conservative party on the Eurosceptic wing.
    You have evidence of that?
    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/douglas-carswell-infiltrated-ukip-to-neutralise-nigel-farage_uk_57f0ff98e4b0397f73b9ce1a

    Hannan said: “Douglas felt he could hold his seat under pretty much any colours and prevent Ukip losing us the referendum with a negative campaign.”

    Carswell and Hannan concocted the plot during secret meetings in the Tate Britain art gallery on the banks of the Thames.
    That’s no, then.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,060
    edited February 2019
    matt said:

    matt said:

    matt said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    I wish them well. One of the potentially multiple upsides of Brexit is a long-overdue realignment of British politics. What has Caroline Flint got in common with Seamus Milne? Absolutely nothing. The right of the Labour party should unite with the Lib Dems: they could gain many seats in Scotland, be quietly pro-Rejoin the EU and loudly rejoin-the-EEA, and attract serious financial support from big business that wants, at least, to be part of the Single Market.

    The split on the right is bad, but it's only Europe that causes the schism. Once Brexit is done I expect the Tories to reunite, with only a few loony europhiles leaving (if Bojo becomes PM, I expect they could tolerate Govet et al)

    So UK politics would have three main parties, Tories, Liberal Labour, and Corbynite Labour.

    Liberal Labour could easily win the next election. They just need the cullions to go for it.

    Soubry, Boles, Wollaston etc could also join a new Liberal centrist party, it would be a UK version of En Marche but that relies on the Tories going for hard Brexit and Labour sticking with Corbyn
    It’s odd how the only recent examples of Conservative MPs joining another party are the UKIP entryist type and yet the working assumption always seems to be that the centre right is disloyal.
    And it was coordinated by figures who are still in the Conservative party on the Eurosceptic wing.
    You have evidence of that?
    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/douglas-carswell-infiltrated-ukip-to-neutralise-nigel-farage_uk_57f0ff98e4b0397f73b9ce1a

    Hannan said: “Douglas felt he could hold his seat under pretty much any colours and prevent Ukip losing us the referendum with a negative campaign.”

    Carswell and Hannan concocted the plot during secret meetings in the Tate Britain art gallery on the banks of the Thames.
    That’s no, then.
    That’s an “are you completely autistic?” then. I’m not your researcher. This aspect is fairly well-documented and that’s the first link that 2 seconds googling throws up.
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    kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    Scott_P said:
    Japan have agreed tariff free access to EU car market , why invest in any European factory when they can manufacture in Japan . Nothing to do with Brexit , another example of the blame everything on Brexit brigade

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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited February 2019
    Scott_P said:
    Seems the FT motor industry expert has a slightly different take on what is the main driving factor.

    Peter Campbell, the motor industry correspondent at the Financial Times, said the fall in demand for diesels would appear to be one of the main factors in the announcement as Nissan was planning to make mainly diesel versions of the X-Trail in Sunderland.

    He told the BBC: "If Nissan decided to make those cars in petrol it would have to ship engines over from Japan and the cost of doing that work against the decision to build it in the UK."

    He added: "There are obviously other factors - car sales are down in the UK, they have fallen across Europe... and there is obviously the overhang of Brexit.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-tyne-47102708
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    More bald spots than the Queen Vic's carpet.

    https://twitter.com/SuellaBraverman/status/1091478780005269505

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    Scott_P said:
    If she was honest she would qualify her comments as the loss of invesment is due to the collapse of Nissan diesel sales to Europe and the fact Japanese cars can be imported free from Japan now the EU has scrapped the 10% tariff

    It is this kind of misguided tweet that is so disingenious

    There are other examples for her case but this is not one
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,435
    edited February 2019
    Bloody snobs who look down on other people, I can't stand them, where do people get this kind of mentality from?

    A pensioner who conducted a 15-year hate campaign against her neighbours that included throwing urine over her fence, knocking over their plant pots and silent phone calls has been jailed.

    Kathleen Neal, 79, banged on the conservatory of Susan Brookes, 68, and her husband Keith, 71, and told them to “get back to your council house where you belong”.

    Yesterday Mrs Brookes said that the pensioner had “finally got her comeuppance”. She added: “I think she took against us because she thinks we come from the wrong end of town. She certainly gives the impression that she thinks she’s better than every one else.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/neighbour-from-hell-kathleen-neal-79-finally-jailed-qxl875nbc
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    Scott_P said:
    If she was honest she would qualify her comments as the loss of invesment is due to the collapse of Nissan diesel sales to Europe and the fact Japanese cars can be imported free from Japan now the EU has scrapped the 10% tariff

    It is this kind of misguided tweet that is so disingenious

    There are other examples for her case but this is not one
    Did these MPs not learn anything from the attempt to blame every single story on Coalition cuts. In the end, when there were genuine impacts, people had had enough of all the BS and it didn't cut through.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,970
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,965
    justin124 said:

    dixiedean said:

    justin124 said:

    dixiedean said:

    SeanT said:

    I wish them well. One of the potentially multiple upsides of Brexit is a long-overdue realignment of British politics. What has Caroline Flint got in common with Seamus Milne? Absolutely nothing. The right of the Labour party should unite with the Lib Dems: they could gain many seats in Scotland, be quietly pro-Rejoin the EU and loudly rejoin-the-EEA, and attract serious financial support from big business that wants, at least, to be part of the Single Market.

    The split on the right is bad, but it's only Europe that causes the schism. Once Brexit is done I expect the Tories to reunite, with only a few loony europhiles leaving (if Bojo becomes PM, I expect they could tolerate Govet et al)

    So UK politics would have three main parties, Tories, Liberal Labour, and Corbynite Labour.

    Liberal Labour could easily win the next election. They just need the cullions to go for it.

    I could see a handful of Labour MPs becoming independent Labour.

    I think the talk about forming a new centre party is just that.
    A handful already have for various reasons. Field, Lewis and Woodcock could, with a dozen others be the 4th biggest group in the Commons. (Not sure O'Mara and Onasanya would be welcome).
    However, I'll believe it when I see it, and it is a long way from there to attracting a membership and an infrastructure to run candidates.
    Talk of joining the LibDems is premature too. They would radically alter the make up of a Party which has changed much since the coalition. I believe they could have sat quite comfortably there under Kennedy.
    Lewis and Woodcock appear to have skeletons in their cupboards and are likely to be perceived as having resigned the Labour whip for the wrong reason.
    Allegedly.
    However, my point was,that such a group already exists, just not formally. They have already passed PC as the 6th biggest in the Commons.
    But they are not exactly in agreement on key policy issues - eg Field is a Brexiteer ( and likely to be close to retirement anyway). Personally I would not hesitate to vote for Frank Field - he is in politics for the right reasons.
    Fair point. However, not being in agreement on key policies doesn't seem to be a bar to any party these days. As I said, I'll believe it when it happens.
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    NEW THREAD

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    Scott_P said:
    If she was honest she would qualify her comments as the loss of invesment is due to the collapse of Nissan diesel sales to Europe and the fact Japanese cars can be imported free from Japan now the EU has scrapped the 10% tariff

    It is this kind of misguided tweet that is so disingenious

    There are other examples for her case but this is not one
    She has not been honest since before the start of the referendum campaign. Claiming to support Leave just so she could switch sides at the most damaging moment was a classic of political dishonesty. Thankfully most people weren't fooled by it.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,970
    SeanT said:

    I wish them well. One of the potentially multiple upsides of Brexit is a long-overdue realignment of British politics. What has Caroline Flint got in common with Seamus Milne? Absolutely nothing. The right of the Labour party should unite with the Lib Dems: they could gain many seats in Scotland, be quietly pro-Rejoin the EU and loudly rejoin-the-EEA, and attract serious financial support from big business that wants, at least, to be part of the Single Market.

    The split on the right is bad, but it's only Europe that causes the schism. Once Brexit is done I expect the Tories to reunite, with only a few loony europhiles leaving (if Bojo becomes PM, I expect they could tolerate Govet et al)

    So UK politics would have three main parties, Tories, Liberal Labour, and Corbynite Labour.

    Liberal Labour could easily win the next election. They just need the cullions to go for it.

    Liberal Labour Liar Party, that will go down like a bucket of sick
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    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Mike usually takes his holiday end of May/start of June, just saying.

    As an aside, I start my new job the 13th of May, which means I have to act professionally for the first few weeks which means I won't be able to focus much on PB.

    I know Theresa hates me, just watch her call an election for June 6th.

    Which is also the 75th anniversary of D-Day, the day that makes me really proud to be British.

    Aside II, it was at the 50th anniversary of D-Day, which I attended, that really cemented my hatred of the French.

    As a callow 15 year old, they didn't know this Les Rosbif could understand their insults aimed at the Anglos and Les Rosbifs, honestly I think they would have prefered to have remained under German rule than be liberated by us.

    I think it's complicated. I rather like the dignity and formality of the French (you wouldn't get a French estate agent phoning you up out of the blue, and pretending to be your best friend).

    But, what happened to them on WWII was grossly humiliating. Their army just fell apart (so did ours, but our navy and Air Force were sound)
    The attack on the French fleet at Mers-el-Kébir also rankles with them.

    Churchill was right, you cannot trust a nation of collaborators to do the right thing.
    Churchill was unfair. Every occupied country has collaborators. Had we been occupied, we 'd have had a British SS, and opportunists.
    Jersey is the closest example to that but, to be fair, very few if any actively helped the Germans from conviction, and most just acquiesced as they had little alternative.
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    ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    kjohnw said:

    Scott_P said:
    Japan have agreed tariff free access to EU car market , why invest in any European factory when they can manufacture in Japan . Nothing to do with Brexit , another example of the blame everything on Brexit brigade

    I have always thought that it would be free trade agreements that would bring about a major re-construction of the EU semi protectionist to outside trade but free trade in the zone model.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    But once Brexit is done, and business adapts (as business always does, as that is the business of business) what divides you and me apart from a rancid old feud we both want to forget? Almost nothing, I think.

    So the right will reunite. There is no fundamental split APART from Europe.

    Those statements are not compatible.

    If the feud over Europe fucks business, business are not going to rally back to the party that did that (and neither are the activists)

    I would vote for a party with Cameron, Osborne.

    I do not intend to vote for a party with BoZo and the rest of the clowns.
    In that scenario, business is left with nobody.
    Not if a new centrist, anti Brexit party emerged
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,153

    Scott_P said:
    If she was honest she would qualify her comments as the loss of invesment is due to the collapse of Nissan diesel sales to Europe and the fact Japanese cars can be imported free from Japan now the EU has scrapped the 10% tariff

    It is this kind of misguided tweet that is so disingenious

    There are other examples for her case but this is not one
    Did these MPs not learn anything from the attempt to blame every single story on Coalition cuts. In the end, when there were genuine impacts, people had had enough of all the BS and it didn't cut through.
    She was selected in an "open primary" - an innovation that she has ensured will not be repeated. She sways with the wind, having been eurosceptic before 2016.
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    Sean_F said:

    Mike usually takes his holiday end of May/start of June, just saying.

    As an aside, I start my new job the 13th of May, which means I have to act professionally for the first few weeks which means I won't be able to focus much on PB.

    I know Theresa hates me, just watch her call an election for June 6th.

    Which is also the 75th anniversary of D-Day, the day that makes me really proud to be British.

    Aside II, it was at the 50th anniversary of D-Day, which I attended, that really cemented my hatred of the French.

    As a callow 15 year old, they didn't know this Les Rosbif could understand their insults aimed at the Anglos and Les Rosbifs, honestly I think they would have prefered to have remained under German rule than be liberated by us.

    I think it's complicated. I rather like the dignity and formality of the French (you wouldn't get a French estate agent phoning you up out of the blue, and pretending to be your best friend).

    But, what happened to them on WWII was grossly humiliating. Their army just fell apart (so did ours, but our navy and Air Force were sound)
    More importantly, the several trillion litres of water in the Channel didn't drain away.
    It’s much more complicated than that.

    France, between the wars, suffered from a much deeper social and political malaise that made it very unprepared to fight in 1940, despite its paper strength.

    The UK got its act together in time on air defence, the navy was already strong enough and had re-learnt the importance of gunnery from the experiences of WWI but the army was way behind in equipment and tactical thinking, and that led to the debacle of 1940 but the BEF did retreat in order.
This discussion has been closed.