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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A shock poll from Opinium sees the Tories move to a 7% lead

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited February 2 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A shock poll from Opinium sees the Tories move to a 7% lead

CON now 7% ahead of LAB with Opinium for the ObserverLAB 34 (-6) CON 41 (+4)LD 8 (+1) UKIP 7 (-)

Read the full story here


Comments

  • First
  • A clear outlier
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 33,790
    About as believable as the stories that loads of moderate Labourites are going to form a new party.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 33,790
    Brenda...don't you go booking any vacations.

    No10 prepares D-Day Election: Tories pencil in June 6 for polling day after delaying Article 50 and securing a Brexit deal in April.... as they triple spending on social media ads hoping they will go viral

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6661607/Tories-pencil-June-6-polling-day-delaying-Article-50-securing-Brexit-deal-April.html
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 24,125
    It’s a poll. We need more data to draw conclusions.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 24,125
    I see FPT that nothing bad is ever to be attributed to Brexit.
  • About as believable as the stories that loads of moderate Labourites are going to form a new party.

    They're thinking about it. And have been for several years. Corbyn signing off Brexit will be the thing that breaks the Labour Party. As it will break the Conservative Party
  • I see FPT that nothing bad is ever to be attributed to Brexit.

    There are examples of brexit related business exodus but to be fair this announcement by Nissan is not one of them
  • Awb683Awb683 Posts: 58
    Hardly a shock.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 25,141
    Sky News: Tories thinking about a new election in order to give Mrs May a bigger mandate.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 33,790
    AndyJS said:

    Sky News: Tories thinking about a new election in order to give Mrs May a bigger mandate.

    What could possibly go wrong....
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 13,938
    edited February 2

    Brenda...don't you go booking any vacations.

    No10 prepares D-Day Election: Tories pencil in June 6 for polling day after delaying Article 50 and securing a Brexit deal in April.... as they triple spending on social media ads hoping they will go viral

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6661607/Tories-pencil-June-6-polling-day-delaying-Article-50-securing-Brexit-deal-April.html

    Years ending in "9" have twice ended in decent wins for Con - 1959 and 1979.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 7,902
    The electorate are trolling the pollsters - and us!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 36,415
    AndyJS said:

    Sky News: Tories thinking about a new election in order to give Mrs May a bigger mandate.

    Previous attempts did not go so well.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 24,125

    I see FPT that nothing bad is ever to be attributed to Brexit.

    There are examples of brexit related business exodus but to be fair this announcement by Nissan is not one of them
    Apart from the fact that Nissan have been stating consistently for years that EU membership / access was essential for them and the line until today has been “oh they’re bluffing as part of Project Fear”,while today’s line is that it’s Nothing To Do With Brexit.
  • About as believable as the stories that loads of moderate Labourites are going to form a new party.

    They're thinking about it. And have been for several years. Corbyn signing off Brexit will be the thing that breaks the Labour Party. As it will break the Conservative Party
    Corbyn has been trying to please both remainers and leavers and this week has seen him abandon remain. His party and his membership is 75% remain and the damage when we leave will be seismic for the party.

    The conservatives are split but the party is eurosceptic and maybe no more than 10 mps would resign the whip, be deselected and the party would move on
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 7,813

    I see FPT that nothing bad is ever to be attributed to Brexit.

    There are examples of brexit related business exodus but to be fair this announcement by Nissan is not one of them
    QED

    Nothing to do with the massive drop in investment in the UK automotive industry since the Brexit vote.

    https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry/uk-car-manufacturing-falls-9-investment-plummets
  • About as believable as the stories that loads of moderate Labourites are going to form a new party.

    They're thinking about it. And have been for several years. Corbyn signing off Brexit will be the thing that breaks the Labour Party. As it will break the Conservative Party
    Corbyn has been trying to please both remainers and leavers and this week has seen him abandon remain. His party and his membership is 75% remain and the damage when we leave will be seismic for the party.

    The conservatives are split but the party is eurosceptic and maybe no more than 10 mps would resign the whip, be deselected and the party would move on
    Brexit won't break you. Crash Brexit will break you
  • AndyJS said:

    Sky News: Tories thinking about a new election in order to give Mrs May a bigger mandate.

    I think it is more a warning to several mps in marginal constituencies to tow the party line
  • glwglw Posts: 4,889

    Apart from the fact that Nissan have been stating consistently for years that EU membership / access was essential for them and the line until today has been “oh they’re bluffing as part of Project Fear”,while today’s line is that it’s Nothing To Do With Brexit.

    Sure it may be mainly down to Brexit uncertainty, but it's not the only factor, the EU JP trade deal, and the fact that a diesel car is now about as attractive as leprosy, they also play a part.

    Saying it's "nothing to do with Brexit" is stupid, but so is attributing Brexit as the cause for everything ill.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 6,749
    I'm just back from a book group meeting and was surprised at the widespread anger expressed at Corbyn.

    Those hoping for a repeat of the 2017GE campaign would be disappointed. People know Corbyn now. He's moved the Overton window somewhat, so would no longer present anything surprising.

    Labour could build on the political space he has opened up with a more imaginative and less internally confrontational leader. But I think they're stuck with him. The sadness from my point of view is that, after making left-wing politics part of the political conversation again for the first time in decades, he now looks set to discredit it again for many more.
  • I see FPT that nothing bad is ever to be attributed to Brexit.

    There are examples of brexit related business exodus but to be fair this announcement by Nissan is not one of them
    Apart from the fact that Nissan have been stating consistently for years that EU membership / access was essential for them and the line until today has been “oh they’re bluffing as part of Project Fear”,while today’s line is that it’s Nothing To Do With Brexit.
    That changed this week with the EU - Japan trade deal eliminating the 10% tariff on Japanese cars meaning manufactured cars in Japan can go direct into the EU tariff free. The car is already built in Japan and European sales of the model have plummeted, as it is diesel
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 33,790
    edited February 2
    glw said:

    Apart from the fact that Nissan have been stating consistently for years that EU membership / access was essential for them and the line until today has been “oh they’re bluffing as part of Project Fear”,while today’s line is that it’s Nothing To Do With Brexit.

    Sure it may be mainly down to Brexit uncertainty, but it's not the only factor, the EU JP trade deal, and the fact that a diesel car is now about as attractive as leprosy, they also play a part.

    Saying it's "nothing to do with Brexit" is stupid, but so is attributing Brexit as the cause for everything ill.
    The FT motor industry correspondence says it isn't mainly down to Brexit uncertainty.

    It is because it is a diesel SKU, and diesels are about as popular as Donald Trump at the Oscars. And if they were to try and try to switch it to a petrol model just for the EU market, it would be expensive reconfiguration and even then the engine would have to be shipped from Japan. It just isn't a runner to do so. Plus, for those secret Trump fans, the X-Trail is currently made in Japan and now can be imported tariff free.

    The big thing to watch is the Qashqai. It is the number one seller across europe in its category and Nissan said they would make the next generation at Sunderland. If they alter those plans, that would 100% due to Brexit.
  • Boom... And spurs even won on a day English cricketers lost...

    I've never seen the like...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,918
    edited February 2
    If Brexit is the cause of Labour’s failings why are the Lib Dem’s (a) still in single figures and (b) up one?

    Is the problem not more that Corbyn has been shown to be crap?

    Saw Vice tonight. A bit patchy I thought. Steve Carrel was brilliant as Rumsfeld. But there were some remarkably silly scenes, the highlight of which was probably a scene where Cheney and his wife suddenly started speaking to each other in blank verse.

    Don’t really think that Bale’s performance was Oscar material although the make up was incredible.
  • Foxy said:

    I see FPT that nothing bad is ever to be attributed to Brexit.

    There are examples of brexit related business exodus but to be fair this announcement by Nissan is not one of them
    QED

    Nothing to do with the massive drop in investment in the UK automotive industry since the Brexit vote.

    https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry/uk-car-manufacturing-falls-9-investment-plummets
    Have you noticed the collapse in diesel world wide which co-incides with the vote. Some may be brexit related but most is due to the massive change in demand for diesel
  • glw said:

    Apart from the fact that Nissan have been stating consistently for years that EU membership / access was essential for them and the line until today has been “oh they’re bluffing as part of Project Fear”,while today’s line is that it’s Nothing To Do With Brexit.

    Sure it may be mainly down to Brexit uncertainty, but it's not the only factor, the EU JP trade deal, and the fact that a diesel car is now about as attractive as leprosy, they also play a part.

    Saying it's "nothing to do with Brexit" is stupid, but so is attributing Brexit as the cause for everything ill.
    The FT motor industry correspondence says it isn't mainly down to Brexit uncertainty.

    It is because it is a diesel SKU, and diesels are about as popular as Donald Trump at the Oscars. And if they were to try and try to switch it to a petrol model just for the EU market, it would be expensive redesign and even then the engine would have to be shipped from Japan. It just isn't a runner to do so. Plus, for those secret Trump fans, the X-Trail is currently made in Japan and now can be imported tariff free.

    The big thing to watch is the Qashqai. It is the number one seller across europe in its category and Nissan said they would make the next generation at Sunderland. If they alter those plans, that would 100% due to Brexit.
    I just bought a diseasel. Chinese / Swedish Volvo. Albeit with a 35% discount as it's pre-registered
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 7,813

    I see FPT that nothing bad is ever to be attributed to Brexit.

    There are examples of brexit related business exodus but to be fair this announcement by Nissan is not one of them
    Apart from the fact that Nissan have been stating consistently for years that EU membership / access was essential for them and the line until today has been “oh they’re bluffing as part of Project Fear”,while today’s line is that it’s Nothing To Do With Brexit.
    That changed this week with the EU - Japan trade deal eliminating the 10% tariff on Japanese cars meaning manufactured cars in Japan can go direct into the EU tariff free. The car is already built in Japan and European sales of the model have plummeted, as it is diesel
    It is only a matter of time that the putative benefit of Brexit shifts from mythical free trade agreements, to tarriff barriers to subsidise British industry.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 33,790
    edited February 2

    glw said:

    Apart from the fact that Nissan have been stating consistently for years that EU membership / access was essential for them and the line until today has been “oh they’re bluffing as part of Project Fear”,while today’s line is that it’s Nothing To Do With Brexit.

    Sure it may be mainly down to Brexit uncertainty, but it's not the only factor, the EU JP trade deal, and the fact that a diesel car is now about as attractive as leprosy, they also play a part.

    Saying it's "nothing to do with Brexit" is stupid, but so is attributing Brexit as the cause for everything ill.
    The FT motor industry correspondence says it isn't mainly down to Brexit uncertainty.

    It is because it is a diesel SKU, and diesels are about as popular as Donald Trump at the Oscars. And if they were to try and try to switch it to a petrol model just for the EU market, it would be expensive redesign and even then the engine would have to be shipped from Japan. It just isn't a runner to do so. Plus, for those secret Trump fans, the X-Trail is currently made in Japan and now can be imported tariff free.

    The big thing to watch is the Qashqai. It is the number one seller across europe in its category and Nissan said they would make the next generation at Sunderland. If they alter those plans, that would 100% due to Brexit.
    I just bought a diseasel. Chinese / Swedish Volvo. Albeit with a 35% discount as it's pre-registered
    Hopefully you don't have any plans of relocating to or want to travel into London....
  • About as believable as the stories that loads of moderate Labourites are going to form a new party.

    They're thinking about it. And have been for several years. Corbyn signing off Brexit will be the thing that breaks the Labour Party. As it will break the Conservative Party
    Corbyn has been trying to please both remainers and leavers and this week has seen him abandon remain. His party and his membership is 75% remain and the damage when we leave will be seismic for the party.

    The conservatives are split but the party is eurosceptic and maybe no more than 10 mps would resign the whip, be deselected and the party would move on
    Brexit won't break you. Crash Brexit will break you
    It will not be no deal brexit
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 7,813

    Foxy said:

    I see FPT that nothing bad is ever to be attributed to Brexit.

    There are examples of brexit related business exodus but to be fair this announcement by Nissan is not one of them
    QED

    Nothing to do with the massive drop in investment in the UK automotive industry since the Brexit vote.

    https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry/uk-car-manufacturing-falls-9-investment-plummets
    Have you noticed the collapse in diesel world wide which co-incides with the vote. Some may be brexit related but most is due to the massive change in demand for diesel
    Does that drop in investment in UK motor industry also relate to diesel?


  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 24,355

    AndyJS said:

    Sky News: Tories thinking about a new election in order to give Mrs May a bigger mandate.

    I think it is more a warning to several mps in marginal constituencies to tow the party line
    I can believe there are still people in CCHQ stupid enough to be talking of giving a mandate to Theresa May. They will have slept through the 2017 election....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 33,790
    edited February 2

    AndyJS said:

    Sky News: Tories thinking about a new election in order to give Mrs May a bigger mandate.

    I think it is more a warning to several mps in marginal constituencies to tow the party line
    I can believe there are still people in CCHQ stupid enough to be talking of giving a mandate to Theresa May. They will have slept through the 2017 election....
    They really should be sent a video of May's "greatest hits" on the campaign trail....that should put the fear of god into them.

    She was about effective as the England batsman.
  • glwglw Posts: 4,889
    DavidL said:

    If Brexit is the cause of Labour’s failings why are the Lib Dem’s (a) still in single figures and (b) up one?

    The failure of the Lib Dems to capitalise on Brexit is one of the great mysteries of our age.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 7,343
    AndyJS said:

    Sky News: Tories thinking about a new election in order to give Mrs May a bigger mandate.

    LOL - go tezza - went well last time
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,918
    glw said:

    DavidL said:

    If Brexit is the cause of Labour’s failings why are the Lib Dem’s (a) still in single figures and (b) up one?

    The failure of the Lib Dems to capitalise on Brexit is one of the great mysteries of our age.
    It is a mystery but a possible solution is that the vast majority don’t give a monkeys about Brexit and just wish that people would stop talking about it.
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    I see FPT that nothing bad is ever to be attributed to Brexit.

    There are examples of brexit related business exodus but to be fair this announcement by Nissan is not one of them
    QED

    Nothing to do with the massive drop in investment in the UK automotive industry since the Brexit vote.

    https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry/uk-car-manufacturing-falls-9-investment-plummets
    Have you noticed the collapse in diesel world wide which co-incides with the vote. Some may be brexit related but most is due to the massive change in demand for diesel
    Does that drop in investment in UK motor industry also relate to diesel?


    I believe the motor industry is at a cross roads and some investment will be on hold pre brexit. However, sign the deal and investment will follow
  • PaulyPauly Posts: 878
    May can't be challenged for until the end of the year. She's just had an unexpected display of parliamentary unity. She now has a poll lead that strengthens her hand even further.

    (1) It is incredibly doubtful she'll be able to pass her deal, even if she wins a majority in a June election. Not without mass Tory deselections that would preclude the possibility of a victory.

    (2) Her advisers would do better to advise her to appoint 15-25 new Conservative peers to strengthen her legislative supremacy. It also hedges against the nightmare electoral scenarios in 2022 by delaying the worst bills for two years. The noble ambition of a smaller upper chamber is less pressing given the circumstances.

    Gambling it all just after she's got her head above the water is delusional.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 7,813

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    I see FPT that nothing bad is ever to be attributed to Brexit.

    There are examples of brexit related business exodus but to be fair this announcement by Nissan is not one of them
    QED

    Nothing to do with the massive drop in investment in the UK automotive industry since the Brexit vote.

    https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry/uk-car-manufacturing-falls-9-investment-plummets
    Have you noticed the collapse in diesel world wide which co-incides with the vote. Some may be brexit related but most is due to the massive change in demand for diesel
    Does that drop in investment in UK motor industry also relate to diesel?


    I believe the motor industry is at a cross roads and some investment will be on hold pre brexit. However, sign the deal and investment will follow
    Unless the deal involves permanent customs union, I think that unlikely. Otherwise the uncertainty continues.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,918

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    I see FPT that nothing bad is ever to be attributed to Brexit.

    There are examples of brexit related business exodus but to be fair this announcement by Nissan is not one of them
    QED

    Nothing to do with the massive drop in investment in the UK automotive industry since the Brexit vote.

    https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry/uk-car-manufacturing-falls-9-investment-plummets
    Have you noticed the collapse in diesel world wide which co-incides with the vote. Some may be brexit related but most is due to the massive change in demand for diesel
    Does that drop in investment in UK motor industry also relate to diesel?


    I believe the motor industry is at a cross roads and some investment will be on hold pre brexit. However, sign the deal and investment will follow
    Not sure about that. They have a major over capacity problem which has been hidden by very cheap finance making new cars more competitive than they should have been given their improving reliability and durability.

    Add in a major technological change with hybrids and it is an uncertain time which is likely to last a while. At the cinema tonight there was an abundance of car adverts, most highlighting hybrids against conventional cars.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,918
    Pauly said:

    May can't be challenged for until the end of the year. She's just had an unexpected display of parliamentary unity. She now has a poll lead that strengthens her hand even further.

    (1) It is incredibly doubtful she'll be able to pass her deal, even if she wins a majority in a June election. Not without mass Tory deselections that would preclude the possibility of a victory.

    (2) Her advisers would do better to advise her to appoint 15-25 new Conservative peers to strengthen her legislative supremacy. It also hedges against the nightmare electoral scenarios in 2022 by delaying the worst bills for two years. The noble ambition of a smaller upper chamber is less pressing given the circumstances.

    Gambling it all just after she's got her head above the water is delusional.

    And? That would hardly be a novel departure.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 17,984

    AndyJS said:

    Sky News: Tories thinking about a new election in order to give Mrs May a bigger mandate.

    I think it is more a warning to several mps in marginal constituencies to tow the party line
    I can believe there are still people in CCHQ stupid enough to be talking of giving a mandate to Theresa May. They will have slept through the 2017 election....
    It will be yet another promise May has broken.

    It would be one thing - and perhaps just about understandable - to remain leader for a snap election forced upon her by Parliament. It would be quite another to decide to call an election at a time of her own choosing and then stay on in spite of her promises to stand down before the next election. Particularly if the big issue of Brexit ahs been put to bed by us leaving on or shortly after March 29th.

    It s kind of immaterial to me because I could not and would not vote for her anyway. But the backtracking will not, I suspect, play well with a lot of MPs and activists.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 33,790
    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    I see FPT that nothing bad is ever to be attributed to Brexit.

    There are examples of brexit related business exodus but to be fair this announcement by Nissan is not one of them
    QED

    Nothing to do with the massive drop in investment in the UK automotive industry since the Brexit vote.

    https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry/uk-car-manufacturing-falls-9-investment-plummets
    Have you noticed the collapse in diesel world wide which co-incides with the vote. Some may be brexit related but most is due to the massive change in demand for diesel
    Does that drop in investment in UK motor industry also relate to diesel?


    I believe the motor industry is at a cross roads and some investment will be on hold pre brexit. However, sign the deal and investment will follow
    Not sure about that. They have a major over capacity problem which has been hidden by very cheap finance making new cars more competitive than they should have been given their improving reliability and durability.

    Add in a major technological change with hybrids and it is an uncertain time which is likely to last a while. At the cinema tonight there was an abundance of car adverts, most highlighting hybrids against conventional cars.
    The over abundance of cheap car financing is a disaster waiting to happen.
  • DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    I see FPT that nothing bad is ever to be attributed to Brexit.

    There are examples of brexit related business exodus but to be fair this announcement by Nissan is not one of them
    QED

    Nothing to do with the massive drop in investment in the UK automotive industry since the Brexit vote.

    https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry/uk-car-manufacturing-falls-9-investment-plummets
    Have you noticed the collapse in diesel world wide which co-incides with the vote. Some may be brexit related but most is due to the massive change in demand for diesel
    Does that drop in investment in UK motor industry also relate to diesel?


    I believe the motor industry is at a cross roads and some investment will be on hold pre brexit. However, sign the deal and investment will follow
    Not sure about that. They have a major over capacity problem which has been hidden by very cheap finance making new cars more competitive than they should have been given their improving reliability and durability.

    Add in a major technological change with hybrids and it is an uncertain time which is likely to last a while. At the cinema tonight there was an abundance of car adverts, most highlighting hybrids against conventional cars.
    Fair point
  • PaulyPauly Posts: 878
    DavidL said:

    Pauly said:

    May can't be challenged for until the end of the year. She's just had an unexpected display of parliamentary unity. She now has a poll lead that strengthens her hand even further.

    (1) It is incredibly doubtful she'll be able to pass her deal, even if she wins a majority in a June election. Not without mass Tory deselections that would preclude the possibility of a victory.

    (2) Her advisers would do better to advise her to appoint 15-25 new Conservative peers to strengthen her legislative supremacy. It also hedges against the nightmare electoral scenarios in 2022 by delaying the worst bills for two years. The noble ambition of a smaller upper chamber is less pressing given the circumstances.

    Gambling it all just after she's got her head above the water is delusional.

    And? That would hardly be a novel departure.
    I just hope she's not a gambling addict, rather than someone who merely dabbles.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 3,806
    How can May call an election when she had to promise to stand down to her own MPs in order to win a vote of no confidence?

    What would she say on the campaign trail, “I’ll stand down soon, so you won’t actually know who you’re voting for as PM?”

    I can only presume this is fake news.
  • PaulyPauly Posts: 878

    How can May call an election when she had to promise to stand down to her own MPs in order to win a vote of no confidence?

    What would she say on the campaign trail, “I’ll stand down soon, so you won’t actually know who you’re voting for as PM?”

    I can only presume this is fake news.

    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-election/pms-office-denies-report-of-june-6-election-plan-idUKKCN1PR0P9?il=0

    It has been denied accordingly. I just hope that's the end of it so I can stop waking up in a cold sweat à la Dominic Grieve.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,918

    How can May call an election when she had to promise to stand down to her own MPs in order to win a vote of no confidence?

    What would she say on the campaign trail, “I’ll stand down soon, so you won’t actually know who you’re voting for as PM?”

    I can only presume this is fake news.

    It would just about make sense if another 50 seats would give her a majority but it would probably just make the ERG stronger and make her deal even more problematic. It would be crazy which does not of course rule it out.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 834

    How can May call an election when she had to promise to stand down to her own MPs in order to win a vote of no confidence?

    What would she say on the campaign trail, “I’ll stand down soon, so you won’t actually know who you’re voting for as PM?”

    I can only presume this is fake news.

    Remember, if there is little change in regards to backstop, but enough to bluff the House of Commons info supporting it, but not enough to get the DUP, she loses her majority.

    My MP reckons you need a majority of forty to govern effectively. Which we don’t currently have.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 1,462
    glw said:

    DavidL said:

    If Brexit is the cause of Labour’s failings why are the Lib Dem’s (a) still in single figures and (b) up one?

    The failure of the Lib Dems to capitalise on Brexit is one of the great mysteries of our age.
    Three of the factors: the coalition; the electoral system (classic squeeze); Cable (very low profile). Chatterati/twitterati massively overrepresents the kind of people who are willing to use their vote to defeat Brexit. Most people, I think, believe Brexit is inevitable.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 24,355
    Pauly said:

    How can May call an election when she had to promise to stand down to her own MPs in order to win a vote of no confidence?

    What would she say on the campaign trail, “I’ll stand down soon, so you won’t actually know who you’re voting for as PM?”

    I can only presume this is fake news.

    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-election/pms-office-denies-report-of-june-6-election-plan-idUKKCN1PR0P9?il=0

    It has been denied accordingly. I just hope that's the end of it so I can stop waking up in a cold sweat à la Dominic Grieve.
    "The article itself quoted an unnamed minister describing the plan as a bid by “second-rate staff desperate to keep their jobs”."

    Second-rate staff have been on the phone, outraged. It was a plan by third-rate staff, they said.
  • glw said:

    DavidL said:

    If Brexit is the cause of Labour’s failings why are the Lib Dem’s (a) still in single figures and (b) up one?

    The failure of the Lib Dems to capitalise on Brexit is one of the great mysteries of our age.
    People think Labour are anti-Brexit.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 420
    edited February 3
    I suppose there's a huge chance that this poll is an outlier, unfortunately.

    But, assuming it isn't, it could either be rallying round the flag as Brexit comes closer, or because floating voters have realised that cowardice, indecision and obfuscation on the most important issue of the day is not exactly a Prime Ministerial attribute.

    My money would be on the latter.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 420

    glw said:

    DavidL said:

    If Brexit is the cause of Labour’s failings why are the Lib Dem’s (a) still in single figures and (b) up one?

    The failure of the Lib Dems to capitalise on Brexit is one of the great mysteries of our age.
    People think Labour are anti-Brexit.
    Also, I think that, while lots of people think it's not worth the bother to leave the EU, few go to the extremes that the Lib Dems go to, of loving everything that comes out of Brussels. E.g. Clegg and others wanted to join the Euro iirc.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,242

    Scott_P said:
    I'd like to read Dura Ace's views on the Williamson story.
    We'll leave aside the fact that the RN has zero suitable vessels for this type of operation - we couldn't expect The Fireplace Salesman to know that. The job would also instantly become a punishment draft in the RN assigned to malcontents and incompetents. If there is one group we hate more than the enemy it's fucking civvies. Nobody will want to do it.

    They could use the Point class Ro-Ro vessels operated by Foreland on behalf of the MoD but that's not the same as using the RN. Also in 2011 the tories (showing their entirely characteristic loathing of the armed forces) paid off 50% of the Point class fleet.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,242
    It was 33% not 50%. 2 out of 6 hulls. Sorry Liam Fox. You did make a good call on MRA4 though, I'll give you that.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,875

    I see FPT that nothing bad is ever to be attributed to Brexit.

    There are examples of brexit related business exodus but to be fair this announcement by Nissan is not one of them
    Human beings like simple stories.

    This was caused by this.
    Or by that.

    But the truth is that business decisions will have multiple inputs.

    So, falling diesel sales will have played a role. As will the weakness of European economies.

    I suspect that the free trade agreement was not a big an impact as people suggest. Why? Because people don't like to wait 4-5 months for the import of mid-range cars. They might wait for their perfect 911 to be delivered. But non-specialist cars tend not to be transported half way around the world.

    If you look at the European cars that are imported to the US, it's all high end stuff. The mid and low end stuff is made in the US. Simply spending $1,000 moving a $20,000 car from Japan to the UK isn't economical.

    I also suspect Carlos Ghosn moving on from Nissan might have been a part of the issue. He was much more European focused than his successors are likely to be.

    Brexit - and specifically the risk of no deal Brexit - will have played a part. It might have been 10% of the decision. It might have been 30%. But to pretend it played no role is, frankly, naive. But it probably wasn't as important as Dieselgate or the weakness of European economies.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,875
    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    I see FPT that nothing bad is ever to be attributed to Brexit.

    There are examples of brexit related business exodus but to be fair this announcement by Nissan is not one of them
    QED

    Nothing to do with the massive drop in investment in the UK automotive industry since the Brexit vote.

    https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry/uk-car-manufacturing-falls-9-investment-plummets
    Have you noticed the collapse in diesel world wide which co-incides with the vote. Some may be brexit related but most is due to the massive change in demand for diesel
    Does that drop in investment in UK motor industry also relate to diesel?


    I believe the motor industry is at a cross roads and some investment will be on hold pre brexit. However, sign the deal and investment will follow
    Not sure about that. They have a major over capacity problem which has been hidden by very cheap finance making new cars more competitive than they should have been given their improving reliability and durability.

    Add in a major technological change with hybrids and it is an uncertain time which is likely to last a while. At the cinema tonight there was an abundance of car adverts, most highlighting hybrids against conventional cars.
    It's interesting you say that. In the US, car demand has been incredibly strong.

    Why? Because in 2007-2008, traded car loans (yes, it's a sector) performed much better than mortgages. Conventional wisdom had been that if you lost your job, the mortgage would have been the last thing you stopped paying. The reality was that it was car loans that were the last to go. Stop paying your mortgage, and you stay in your house for months or years. Stop paying your car loan, and they take your car, and you can't even get to a job interview.

    And this has had funny follow on effects. Car leasing companies pay half as much to borrow now as in 2006. And car residuals are better (because of cheap loans to buy cars).

    The result is that the amount of car debt in the US - once you include finance leases - is almost THREE TIMES the level of 2006.

    It's a horrendous bubble waiting to burst.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 10,815
    glw said:

    DavidL said:

    If Brexit is the cause of Labour’s failings why are the Lib Dem’s (a) still in single figures and (b) up one?

    The failure of the Lib Dems to capitalise on Brexit is one of the great mysteries of our age.
    I reckon part of it is that although half the voters hate Brexit and all the ludicrous chancers and fantasists associated with it, hardly any of them actually *like* the EU.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,497
    edited February 3
    rcs1000 said:

    I see FPT that nothing bad is ever to be attributed to Brexit.

    There are examples of brexit related business exodus but to be fair this announcement by Nissan is not one of them
    Human beings like simple stories.

    This was caused by this.
    Or by that.

    But the truth is that business decisions will have multiple inputs.

    So, falling diesel sales will have played a role. As will the weakness of European economies.

    I suspect that the free trade agreement was not a big an impact as people suggest. Why? Because people don't like to wait 4-5 months for the import of mid-range cars. They might wait for their perfect 911 to be delivered. But non-specialist cars tend not to be transported half way around the world.

    If you look at the European cars that are imported to the US, it's all high end stuff. The mid and low end stuff is made in the US. Simply spending $1,000 moving a $20,000 car from Japan to the UK isn't economical.

    I also suspect Carlos Ghosn moving on from Nissan might have been a part of the issue. He was much more European focused than his successors are likely to be.

    Brexit - and specifically the risk of no deal Brexit - will have played a part. It might have been 10% of the decision. It might have been 30%. But to pretend it played no role is, frankly, naive. But it probably wasn't as important as Dieselgate or the weakness of European economies.
    Decisions in complicated and fast moving industry made following detailed multi-factor technical process, what a surprise!

    Another factor in Europe this year is going to be launch of the Tesla Model 3, which are about to start making their way over the Pond in large numbers as their factory gets up to speed.

    The top end of the U.K. car industry is absolutely booming, despite slowdowns in China and Europe, lower oil prices in the Middle East and political uncertainty in the USA. Rolls Royce, Bentley, Aston Martin and McLaren all have long waiting lists for recent new models, at unit prices in the £150k-£350k range - and all are hiring skilled and apprentice workers.

    Also an interesting point about car finance in the US. I was always surprised in the Middle East that car loans are cheaper than house loans, despite the rapid depreciation of the secured asset.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,497
    I see that Paddy Power are quickly dropping the sport = politics analogies, after the Irish rugby team capitulated as much as Leo Varadkar is going to have to this week over his backstop.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 21,364

    glw said:

    Apart from the fact that Nissan have been stating consistently for years that EU membership / access was essential for them and the line until today has been “oh they’re bluffing as part of Project Fear”,while today’s line is that it’s Nothing To Do With Brexit.

    Sure it may be mainly down to Brexit uncertainty, but it's not the only factor, the EU JP trade deal, and the fact that a diesel car is now about as attractive as leprosy, they also play a part.

    Saying it's "nothing to do with Brexit" is stupid, but so is attributing Brexit as the cause for everything ill.
    The FT motor industry correspondence says it isn't mainly down to Brexit uncertainty.

    It is because it is a diesel SKU, and diesels are about as popular as Donald Trump at the Oscars. And if they were to try and try to switch it to a petrol model just for the EU market, it would be expensive redesign and even then the engine would have to be shipped from Japan. It just isn't a runner to do so. Plus, for those secret Trump fans, the X-Trail is currently made in Japan and now can be imported tariff free.

    The big thing to watch is the Qashqai. It is the number one seller across europe in its category and Nissan said they would make the next generation at Sunderland. If they alter those plans, that would 100% due to Brexit.
    I just bought a diseasel. Chinese / Swedish Volvo. Albeit with a 35% discount as it's pre-registered
    I also just bought a new Audi Q5 diesel on a decent discount
  • MJWMJW Posts: 553
    Danny565 said:

    MJW said:

    Thornberry has I think played things badly. She could've been a unity candidate, but her pronouncements on Syria and anti-Semitism mean she's loathed by moderates, but is unlikely to be trusted as a pukka Corbyn heir.

    I don't think I agree with this. I think Thornberry is reflecting the members' view on antisemitism: that it's been exaggerated by the media, but all the same that Corbyn has been too lax in dealing with it, and has himself gone over-the-top sometimes with some of his comments on Israel. I don't think either that or Syria would be big issues for her (to be honest I don't remember her saying much of anything on Syria, but in my experience Labour members aren't that interested in that issue anyway). On most domestic issues she seems pretty in line with Corbyn / the membership.

    I think the bigger issue for her is whether she'd be more 'electable' with the public than Corbyn is, because it's not clear to me that she would be.
    Just to come back on this, as was out on the town yesterday. We're not talking about 'the membership' we're talking about the 30 per cent who are utterly horrified by what their party has become. They don't believe anti-Semitism is exaggerated. They believe the party is now institutionally racist. They are right too. The fact Corbyn has openly defended someone like Williamson proves it - it's unimaginable Labourr would ignore 20+ complaints about someone's racism towards any other group - to the extent the leader thumbed their ose at them by saying he wasn't. On Thornberry, the point is this - she's monumentally pissed off the remaining Corbyn refuseniks. She's not a genuine Corbynista (radicals might well believe she was trying to 'do a Kinnock'). So what's her base?
  • MJWMJW Posts: 553

    About as believable as the stories that loads of moderate Labourites are going to form a new party.

    They're thinking about it. And have been for several years. Corbyn signing off Brexit will be the thing that breaks the Labour Party. As it will break the Conservative Party
    Corbyn has been trying to please both remainers and leavers and this week has seen him abandon remain. His party and his membership is 75% remain and the damage when we leave will be seismic for the party.

    The conservatives are split but the party is eurosceptic and maybe no more than 10 mps would resign the whip, be deselected and the party would move on
    I don't think it will necessarily be seismic - unless there is a split. Which is pretty likely tbf, enough MPs and activists now realise you can't negotiate with people who believe they are righteous who believe things you think are appalling morally disastrous betrayals of left-wing morality. But more important is the ekeing away of support among the non-political who don't understand or support Corbyn's particular economically nationalist way of thinking. But 'why Labour?' is now a question a lot of potential supporters are struggling to come up with an answer to.
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