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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump seems to be alienating an awful lot of voters

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited February 3 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump seems to be alienating an awful lot of voters

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  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 10,371
    First like England (rugby).
  • RobDRobD Posts: 36,414
    Thanks for the header, TSE :)
  • MattWMattW Posts: 2,103
    It hasn't made second.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 2,103
    It hasn't made third.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 2,103
    Fourth like Remain.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 6,913
    TSE, I really don't see any normal life scenario where these figures improve for Trump. Those who leave him are not coming back, and every month he comes up with a new way to test his base's loyalty to him - be they farmers or steelworkers or coalworkers.

    Short of a spectacularly successful and necessary war, I don't see this turning around. Thank god.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 29,116
    edited February 3
    Hillary lost in 2016 because in key states not enough people were motivated to vote for her, while just enough were motivated to vote against her. It could well be that this is what Trump is facing in 2020.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 10,815
    MTimT said:

    TSE, I really don't see any normal life scenario where these figures improve for Trump. Those who leave him are not coming back, and every month he comes up with a new way to test his base's loyalty to him - be they farmers or steelworkers or coalworkers.

    Short of a spectacularly successful and necessary war, I don't see this turning around. Thank god.

    You may be underestimating the Democrats' ability to bollocks this thing up
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 29,116
    The fact that this Tweet has not been deleted by Daniel Kawczynski clearly demonstrates that rather than just being profoundly stupid, he is also a barefaced liar. Clearly, membership of the ERG is predicated on the possession of such qualities.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 11,043

    MTimT said:

    TSE, I really don't see any normal life scenario where these figures improve for Trump. Those who leave him are not coming back, and every month he comes up with a new way to test his base's loyalty to him - be they farmers or steelworkers or coalworkers.

    Short of a spectacularly successful and necessary war, I don't see this turning around. Thank god.

    You may be underestimating the Democrats' ability to bollocks this thing up
    It’s true that there’s some evidence of that, but even the Governor of Virginia is likely to be gone well before next year...
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/02/northam-looked-ready-to-moonwalk-at-news-conference-before-his-wife-stopped-him.html

    But I suspect even Warren, who is very unlikely to get the nomination, would beat Trump.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,439
    Morning all, exultant after England's display in Ireland, appalled at England's display in the West Indies.. I read a headline in the Observer that suggests a breakaway Labour group to form a new party. Is there any truth in this>??
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 21,364
    tlg86 said:

    First like England (rugby).

    I believe they are second to Scotland at present, do you have Brexititis.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,439
    malcolmg said:

    tlg86 said:

    First like England (rugby).

    I believe they are second to Scotland at present, do you have Brexititis.
    LOl Malc. We will revisit this at the end of the 6 Nations.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 21,364

    malcolmg said:

    tlg86 said:

    First like England (rugby).

    I believe they are second to Scotland at present, do you have Brexititis.
    LOl Malc. We will revisit this at the end of the 6 Nations.
    More Likely you will want to forget
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 10,815
    edited February 3
    Nigelb said:


    But I suspect even Warren, who is very unlikely to get the nomination, would beat Trump.

    Probably - I don't think Warren is a bad candidate, although obviously she's no KLOBUCHAR.

    Their other problem is that there's a dynamic where the candidates are trying to out-compete each other on bold economic left-wingery. It's all very well to say you'll never vote for Trump now but if you think the other side will put your taxes up...
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 10,601

    Morning all, exultant after England's display in Ireland, appalled at England's display in the West Indies.. I read a headline in the Observer that suggests a breakaway Labour group to form a new party. Is there any truth in this>??

    Whatever the truth was yesterday, I expect they will be having second thoughts after this morning's headlines about a snap election this summer.
    https://news.sky.com/story/may-could-call-june-election-and-vows-to-battle-for-britain-during-talks-for-new-brexit-deal-11626710
  • dotsdots Posts: 615
    Off topic. Mikes header was gone too soon.

    Oh Mike. OGH. It’s not a shock poll. What makes anyone think its a shock poll? Does it not tie perfectly with other klaxons, like leadership satisfaction ratings or best PM? Or Labour whip melting in the commons as power ebbs away from the nebulous brexit handling.

    What gave Labour last GE result and kept them at high levels was the belief giving support to Labour would prevent / soften brexit. That bubble has burst. That’s the key bit.

    Simultaneously voters have a different measure of Corbyn and the crew around him. Another bubble has burst, and can’t be reversed.

    The Tories will now comfortably win the impending election with the same get Corbyn tactic that flopped last time. They could wallpaper the front of themselves so all you hear about their plans is some muffled battle for Britain sound bites. They can even include a dementia tax and still win.

    There is always lots of irony in politics. We are now at a point the Labour moderates sat behind Corbyn happy to vote for that GE when May calls it, because the comfortable working majority May will win spears Corbyn and Team Corbyn.

    Let’s layer the irony on shall we. IF brexit impasse continues, GE is number 10s preferred out, whilst best option for Team Corbyn now is some sort of second ref instead. But they cant. The People’s vote ship has been scuttled before it sailed. Team Corbyn have boxed themselves in with their own sequencing and vehement opposition to Mays deal. They have boxed themselves in to voting in commons for the fast approaching GE.

    🤣 A rolling around laughing and crying emoticon just doesn’t do it justice.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,596
    Good morning, everyone.

    Surprised but pleased by the rugby yesterday. Very unusual to see Italy have a sting in the tail, but it was too little, too late.

    At the moment, relatively comfortable with the tiny sums I put on England/Ireland versus Italy to be the top scoring match.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 26,839
    Nigelb said:

    MTimT said:

    TSE, I really don't see any normal life scenario where these figures improve for Trump. Those who leave him are not coming back, and every month he comes up with a new way to test his base's loyalty to him - be they farmers or steelworkers or coalworkers.

    Short of a spectacularly successful and necessary war, I don't see this turning around. Thank god.

    You may be underestimating the Democrats' ability to bollocks this thing up
    It’s true that there’s some evidence of that, but even the Governor of Virginia is likely to be gone well before next year...
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/02/northam-looked-ready-to-moonwalk-at-news-conference-before-his-wife-stopped-him.html

    But I suspect even Warren, who is very unlikely to get the nomination, would beat Trump.
    Was Northam the Klansman or the black and white minstrel in the photo?
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,439
    edited February 3
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    tlg86 said:

    First like England (rugby).

    I believe they are second to Scotland at present, do you have Brexititis.
    LOl Malc. We will revisit this at the end of the 6 Nations.
    More Likely you will want to forget
    England v Scotland... Its the final match of the 6 Nations.. at Twickenham... How often have the Jocks turned over England on their own turf? Last time at Twickers it was 62-21 IIRC
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 19,136
    I think the headers verb is the wrong tense. Trump doesn't seem to be alienating many at all. He had alienated a lit at the start but the proportion of unalienated people he is alienating is minimal.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 16,806
    In the same speech when May said she would stand down before the next election, she also said she would love to give it another go and (try to) expunge the stain of 2017. Having an election in a hurry is the only way she gets to live her dream.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,497
    One fact often missing in analysis of US elections is the terrible turnout figures - struggling to get much above 55% of eligible voters. A candidate who can increase turnout (as Obama did in 2008, and Trump did to a lesser extent) stands a very good chance of election.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,875
    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    MTimT said:

    TSE, I really don't see any normal life scenario where these figures improve for Trump. Those who leave him are not coming back, and every month he comes up with a new way to test his base's loyalty to him - be they farmers or steelworkers or coalworkers.

    Short of a spectacularly successful and necessary war, I don't see this turning around. Thank god.

    You may be underestimating the Democrats' ability to bollocks this thing up
    It’s true that there’s some evidence of that, but even the Governor of Virginia is likely to be gone well before next year...
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/02/northam-looked-ready-to-moonwalk-at-news-conference-before-his-wife-stopped-him.html

    But I suspect even Warren, who is very unlikely to get the nomination, would beat Trump.
    Was Northam the Klansman or the black and white minstrel in the photo?
    Yes
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,875

    Nigelb said:


    But I suspect even Warren, who is very unlikely to get the nomination, would beat Trump.

    Probably - I don't think Warren is a bad candidate, although obviously she's no KLOBUCHAR.

    Their other problem is that there's a dynamic where the candidates are trying to out-compete each other on bold economic left-wingery. It's all very well to say you'll never vote for Trump now but if you think the other side will put your taxes up...
    Do you think Klobuchar will even make it to the first debate?
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 2,710
    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    MTimT said:

    TSE, I really don't see any normal life scenario where these figures improve for Trump. Those who leave him are not coming back, and every month he comes up with a new way to test his base's loyalty to him - be they farmers or steelworkers or coalworkers.

    Short of a spectacularly successful and necessary war, I don't see this turning around. Thank god.

    You may be underestimating the Democrats' ability to bollocks this thing up
    It’s true that there’s some evidence of that, but even the Governor of Virginia is likely to be gone well before next year...
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/02/northam-looked-ready-to-moonwalk-at-news-conference-before-his-wife-stopped-him.html

    But I suspect even Warren, who is very unlikely to get the nomination, would beat Trump.
    Was Northam the Klansman or the black and white minstrel in the photo?
    He’s now claiming he was neither!
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 10,601
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    MTimT said:

    TSE, I really don't see any normal life scenario where these figures improve for Trump. Those who leave him are not coming back, and every month he comes up with a new way to test his base's loyalty to him - be they farmers or steelworkers or coalworkers.

    Short of a spectacularly successful and necessary war, I don't see this turning around. Thank god.

    You may be underestimating the Democrats' ability to bollocks this thing up
    It’s true that there’s some evidence of that, but even the Governor of Virginia is likely to be gone well before next year...
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/02/northam-looked-ready-to-moonwalk-at-news-conference-before-his-wife-stopped-him.html

    But I suspect even Warren, who is very unlikely to get the nomination, would beat Trump.
    Was Northam the Klansman or the black and white minstrel in the photo?
    Yes
    Hasn't Northam had a second look and decided he is neither (at least not in this picture)?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-47102614
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 16,806

    I think the headers verb is the wrong tense. Trump doesn't seem to be alienating many at all. He had alienated a lit at the start but the proportion of unalienated people he is alienating is minimal.

    It's not a great graph, tbh. The data series are all over the place with some significant outliers. And it is statistically flawed in that straight line regression is being used to try to make sense of this data, when there is no reason whatsoever why a time-series trend should be a straight line to begin with. Popularity rises and falls; sticking a straight line through it is arbitrary and wrong.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,875

    I think the headers verb is the wrong tense. Trump doesn't seem to be alienating many at all. He had alienated a lit at the start but the proportion of unalienated people he is alienating is minimal.

    Absolutely right. Will never vote for Trump has been stuck in the 45-50% range with very little movement. Now that's worse than Obama but given low turn out in the US elections, he might well still win.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 2,341
    IanB2 said:

    In the same speech when May said she would stand down before the next election, she also said she would love to give it another go and (try to) expunge the stain of 2017. Having an election in a hurry is the only way she gets to live her dream.

    Can't she just break her promise? Hardly a disqualification for a leading politician.

    If she pulls off a withdrawal agreement, there will be plenty more vital negotiations with the EU to do. It would be irresponsible for her to resign before her work is complete. And so on. And so forth.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,497
    I see that Paddy Power's attempt at political humour backfired quite spectacularly last night, as Ireland's rugby team capitulated nearly as much as Leo Varadkar will be doing this week. ;)
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 2,716

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    tlg86 said:

    First like England (rugby).

    I believe they are second to Scotland at present, do you have Brexititis.
    LOl Malc. We will revisit this at the end of the 6 Nations.
    More Likely you will want to forget
    England v Scotland... Its the final match of the 6 Nations.. at Twickenham... How often have the Jocks turned over England on their own turf? Last time at Twickers it was 62-21 IIRC
    61-21 to be precise.

    The last Scottish Calcutta Cup victory at Twickenham took place in 1983 (although England and Scotland are, respectively, the 3rd and 4th best sides in the Northern Hemisphere at present, so the prospect shouldn't be discounted.)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 28,073
    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    MTimT said:

    TSE, I really don't see any normal life scenario where these figures improve for Trump. Those who leave him are not coming back, and every month he comes up with a new way to test his base's loyalty to him - be they farmers or steelworkers or coalworkers.

    Short of a spectacularly successful and necessary war, I don't see this turning around. Thank god.

    You may be underestimating the Democrats' ability to bollocks this thing up
    It’s true that there’s some evidence of that, but even the Governor of Virginia is likely to be gone well before next year...
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/02/northam-looked-ready-to-moonwalk-at-news-conference-before-his-wife-stopped-him.html

    But I suspect even Warren, who is very unlikely to get the nomination, would beat Trump.
    Was Northam the Klansman or the black and white minstrel in the photo?
    It might be a minority view, but I don’t get this.

    This was over 35 years ago when he was in his early 20s and mucking around with his mates.

    If his political opponents have evidence of unchanged racist attitudes that are affecting his politics today, then fine, but I don’t see why he should resign just because this photo has been discovered.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 26,839

    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    MTimT said:

    TSE, I really don't see any normal life scenario where these figures improve for Trump. Those who leave him are not coming back, and every month he comes up with a new way to test his base's loyalty to him - be they farmers or steelworkers or coalworkers.

    Short of a spectacularly successful and necessary war, I don't see this turning around. Thank god.

    You may be underestimating the Democrats' ability to bollocks this thing up
    It’s true that there’s some evidence of that, but even the Governor of Virginia is likely to be gone well before next year...
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/02/northam-looked-ready-to-moonwalk-at-news-conference-before-his-wife-stopped-him.html

    But I suspect even Warren, who is very unlikely to get the nomination, would beat Trump.
    Was Northam the Klansman or the black and white minstrel in the photo?
    He’s now claiming he was neither!
    It's a very funny story.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 24,125
    rcs1000 said:

    I think the headers verb is the wrong tense. Trump doesn't seem to be alienating many at all. He had alienated a lit at the start but the proportion of unalienated people he is alienating is minimal.

    Absolutely right. Will never vote for Trump has been stuck in the 45-50% range with very little movement. Now that's worse than Obama but given low turn out in the US elections, he might well still win.
    The significance, I think, is in how motivated Donald Trump’s opponents are. This implies they will turn out to vote against him. They did in the midterms when he wasn’t even on the ballot. They probably will next year too.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,242
    Unless the economy implodes Trump will be just fine in 2020. He might move the battle on to more socially conservative territory like abortion rights to keep the mental xtians firmly embedded in his project and distract attention from the distinct lack of a wall.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 26,839

    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    MTimT said:

    TSE, I really don't see any normal life scenario where these figures improve for Trump. Those who leave him are not coming back, and every month he comes up with a new way to test his base's loyalty to him - be they farmers or steelworkers or coalworkers.

    Short of a spectacularly successful and necessary war, I don't see this turning around. Thank god.

    You may be underestimating the Democrats' ability to bollocks this thing up
    It’s true that there’s some evidence of that, but even the Governor of Virginia is likely to be gone well before next year...
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/02/northam-looked-ready-to-moonwalk-at-news-conference-before-his-wife-stopped-him.html

    But I suspect even Warren, who is very unlikely to get the nomination, would beat Trump.
    Was Northam the Klansman or the black and white minstrel in the photo?
    It might be a minority view, but I don’t get this.

    This was over 35 years ago when he was in his early 20s and mucking around with his mates.

    If his political opponents have evidence of unchanged racist attitudes that are affecting his politics today, then fine, but I don’t see why he should resign just because this photo has been discovered.
    It's his own side who have turned on him.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 22,677
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    MTimT said:

    TSE, I really don't see any normal life scenario where these figures improve for Trump. Those who leave him are not coming back, and every month he comes up with a new way to test his base's loyalty to him - be they farmers or steelworkers or coalworkers.

    Short of a spectacularly successful and necessary war, I don't see this turning around. Thank god.

    You may be underestimating the Democrats' ability to bollocks this thing up
    It’s true that there’s some evidence of that, but even the Governor of Virginia is likely to be gone well before next year...
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/02/northam-looked-ready-to-moonwalk-at-news-conference-before-his-wife-stopped-him.html

    But I suspect even Warren, who is very unlikely to get the nomination, would beat Trump.
    Was Northam the Klansman or the black and white minstrel in the photo?
    Yes
    I heard on the radio blast night that he doesn’t remember of it was him in the photo.

    Heck of a thing to forget... unless it happened frequently...
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 22,677

    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    MTimT said:

    TSE, I really don't see any normal life scenario where these figures improve for Trump. Those who leave him are not coming back, and every month he comes up with a new way to test his base's loyalty to him - be they farmers or steelworkers or coalworkers.

    Short of a spectacularly successful and necessary war, I don't see this turning around. Thank god.

    You may be underestimating the Democrats' ability to bollocks this thing up
    It’s true that there’s some evidence of that, but even the Governor of Virginia is likely to be gone well before next year...
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/02/northam-looked-ready-to-moonwalk-at-news-conference-before-his-wife-stopped-him.html

    But I suspect even Warren, who is very unlikely to get the nomination, would beat Trump.
    Was Northam the Klansman or the black and white minstrel in the photo?
    It might be a minority view, but I don’t get this.

    This was over 35 years ago when he was in his early 20s and mucking around with his mates.

    If his political opponents have evidence of unchanged racist attitudes that are affecting his politics today, then fine, but I don’t see why he should resign just because this photo has been discovered.
    Because he’s damaging his party by staying

    It’s nothing to do with the rights/wrongs of what he did when he was a grown adult at university
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 28,073
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    MTimT said:

    TSE, I really don't see any normal life scenario where these figures improve for Trump. Those who leave him are not coming back, and every month he comes up with a new way to test his base's loyalty to him - be they farmers or steelworkers or coalworkers.

    Short of a spectacularly successful and necessary war, I don't see this turning around. Thank god.

    You may be underestimating the Democrats' ability to bollocks this thing up
    It’s true that there’s some evidence of that, but even the Governor of Virginia is likely to be gone well before next year...
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/02/northam-looked-ready-to-moonwalk-at-news-conference-before-his-wife-stopped-him.html

    But I suspect even Warren, who is very unlikely to get the nomination, would beat Trump.
    Was Northam the Klansman or the black and white minstrel in the photo?
    It might be a minority view, but I don’t get this.

    This was over 35 years ago when he was in his early 20s and mucking around with his mates.

    If his political opponents have evidence of unchanged racist attitudes that are affecting his politics today, then fine, but I don’t see why he should resign just because this photo has been discovered.
    It's his own side who have turned on him.
    Yes, I don’t understand that either.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,242

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    MTimT said:

    TSE, I really don't see any normal life scenario where these figures improve for Trump. Those who leave him are not coming back, and every month he comes up with a new way to test his base's loyalty to him - be they farmers or steelworkers or coalworkers.

    Short of a spectacularly successful and necessary war, I don't see this turning around. Thank god.

    You may be underestimating the Democrats' ability to bollocks this thing up
    It’s true that there’s some evidence of that, but even the Governor of Virginia is likely to be gone well before next year...
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/02/northam-looked-ready-to-moonwalk-at-news-conference-before-his-wife-stopped-him.html

    But I suspect even Warren, who is very unlikely to get the nomination, would beat Trump.
    Was Northam the Klansman or the black and white minstrel in the photo?
    It might be a minority view, but I don’t get this.

    This was over 35 years ago when he was in his early 20s and mucking around with his mates.

    If his political opponents have evidence of unchanged racist attitudes that are affecting his politics today, then fine, but I don’t see why he should resign just because this photo has been discovered.
    It's his own side who have turned on him.
    Yes, I don’t understand that either.
    It's payback for Virginia liberalising their abortion laws. The conservative wing of the Repubs is inflamed over it.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 26,839

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    MTimT said:

    TSE, I really don't see any normal life scenario where these figures improve for Trump. Those who leave him are not coming back, and every month he comes up with a new way to test his base's loyalty to him - be they farmers or steelworkers or coalworkers.

    Short of a spectacularly successful and necessary war, I don't see this turning around. Thank god.

    You may be underestimating the Democrats' ability to bollocks this thing up
    It’s true that there’s some evidence of that, but even the Governor of Virginia is likely to be gone well before next year...
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/02/northam-looked-ready-to-moonwalk-at-news-conference-before-his-wife-stopped-him.html

    But I suspect even Warren, who is very unlikely to get the nomination, would beat Trump.
    Was Northam the Klansman or the black and white minstrel in the photo?
    It might be a minority view, but I don’t get this.

    This was over 35 years ago when he was in his early 20s and mucking around with his mates.

    If his political opponents have evidence of unchanged racist attitudes that are affecting his politics today, then fine, but I don’t see why he should resign just because this photo has been discovered.
    It's his own side who have turned on him.
    Yes, I don’t understand that either.
    He ran a lot of attack ads that branded his Republican opponent as a white nationalist in 2017. So, the Republicans are happy to put the boot in, while the Democrats find him an embarrassment.
  • felixfelix Posts: 8,514
    IanB2 said:

    In the same speech when May said she would stand down before the next election, she also said she would love to give it another go and (try to) expunge the stain of 2017. Having an election in a hurry is the only way she gets to live her dream.

    Yes - I actually think the voters really don't want a GE anytime soon. Politics and politicians have pi***d them off big-time and I also believe a lot of voters know that they too have majorly screwed up in both the 2016 vote and the last GE. They don't want the responsibility of another mistake.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 7,813
    dots said:

    Off topic. Mikes header was gone too soon.

    Oh Mike. OGH. It’s not a shock poll. What makes anyone think its a shock poll? Does it not tie perfectly with other klaxons, like leadership satisfaction ratings or best PM? Or Labour whip melting in the commons as power ebbs away from the nebulous brexit handling.

    What gave Labour last GE result and kept them at high levels was the belief giving support to Labour would prevent / soften brexit. That bubble has burst. That’s the key bit.

    Simultaneously voters have a different measure of Corbyn and the crew around him. Another bubble has burst, and can’t be reversed.

    The Tories will now comfortably win the impending election with the same get Corbyn tactic that flopped last time. They could wallpaper the front of themselves so all you hear about their plans is some muffled battle for Britain sound bites. They can even include a dementia tax and still win.

    There is always lots of irony in politics. We are now at a point the Labour moderates sat behind Corbyn happy to vote for that GE when May calls it, because the comfortable working majority May will win spears Corbyn and Team Corbyn.

    Let’s layer the irony on shall we. IF brexit impasse continues, GE is number 10s preferred out, whilst best option for Team Corbyn now is some sort of second ref instead. But they cant. The People’s vote ship has been scuttled before it sailed. Team Corbyn have boxed themselves in with their own sequencing and vehement opposition to Mays deal. They have boxed themselves in to voting in commons for the fast approaching GE.

    🤣 A rolling around laughing and crying emoticon just doesn’t do it justice.

    Considering how stable the polling has been for 18 months, I wouldn't belive a single poll. Indeed despite being done on the same day, this poll was not deemed newsworthy:

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,439
    edited February 3
    Malc.. just checked the records,... Not saying it cannot happen, but Scotland have never beaten England at Twickenham in the professional era.. Last Scottish victory at Twickers was 36 yrs ago....1983 ( I now note someone has posted that..)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 24,355
    Little snippet in the Sunday Times: 10 days ago, Hammond called in 15 Tory Vice-Chairman and Parliamentary aides to sound out a second referendum. "He was surprised by the amount of pushback he got."

    Remarkable how the Tories seems to be populated by folk who have no ability to read the mood of their own party until they are smacked up side the head 15 times.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 2,716
    Meanwhile, as well as not being allowed to leave the EU because Northern Ireland's five remaining Republican dissidents might blow up another lamppost, it appears that we're also not allowed to leave the EU in case enraged Hampstead vegans rise up and try to stone the Queen to death with root vegetables and tofu.

    The most remarkable thing in this morning's Sunday Times report is, however, the suggestion that "Whitehall has drawn up secret plans." Whitehall is incapable of doing secret anything. It's not so much a leaking sieve as a tap turned full-on. And stuck.
    Foxy said:

    Considering how stable the polling has been for 18 months, I wouldn't belive a single poll. Indeed despite being done on the same day, this poll was not deemed newsworthy:

    I wouldn't take any VI poll as a useful indicator of electoral performance, irrespective of whether it was part of a trend or not. They are totally unreliable.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 2,103
    edited February 3
    >Considering how stable the polling has been for 18 months, I wouldn't believe a single poll.

    Doesn't this actually make FOUR (out of 13) since New Year with Tory leads of 5%+, (Yougov, Yougov, Yougov, Opinium) :-o ?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2019

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 13,985
    MTimT said:

    TSE, I really don't see any normal life scenario where these figures improve for Trump. Those who leave him are not coming back, and every month he comes up with a new way to test his base's loyalty to him - be they farmers or steelworkers or coalworkers.

    Short of a spectacularly successful and necessary war, I don't see this turning around. Thank god.

    It would be a nice irony if virtuous evangelicals were Trump's last redoubt.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 26,839
    Foxy said:

    dots said:

    Off topic. Mikes header was gone too soon.

    Oh Mike. OGH. It’s not a shock poll. What makes anyone think its a shock poll? Does it not tie perfectly with other klaxons, like leadership satisfaction ratings or best PM? Or Labour whip melting in the commons as power ebbs away from the nebulous brexit handling.

    What gave Labour last GE result and kept them at high levels was the belief giving support to Labour would prevent / soften brexit. That bubble has burst. That’s the key bit.

    Simultaneously voters have a different measure of Corbyn and the crew around him. Another bubble has burst, and can’t be reversed.

    The Tories will now comfortably win the impending election with the same get Corbyn tactic that flopped last time. They could wallpaper the front of themselves so all you hear about their plans is some muffled battle for Britain sound bites. They can even include a dementia tax and still win.

    There is always lots of irony in politics. We are now at a point the Labour moderates sat behind Corbyn happy to vote for that GE when May calls it, because the comfortable working majority May will win spears Corbyn and Team Corbyn.

    Let’s layer the irony on shall we. IF brexit impasse continues, GE is number 10s preferred out, whilst best option for Team Corbyn now is some sort of second ref instead. But they cant. The People’s vote ship has been scuttled before it sailed. Team Corbyn have boxed themselves in with their own sequencing and vehement opposition to Mays deal. They have boxed themselves in to voting in commons for the fast approaching GE.

    🤣 A rolling around laughing and crying emoticon just doesn’t do it justice.

    Considering how stable the polling has been for 18 months, I wouldn't belive a single poll. Indeed despite being done on the same day, this poll was not deemed newsworthy:

    It is probably an outlier, although Opinium did a poll on 24/25 January which put the Conservatives 2% ahead.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 7,813
    edited February 3
    MattW said:

    >Considering how stable the polling has been for 18 months, I wouldn't believe a single poll.

    Doesn't this actually make FOUR (out of 13) since New Year with Tory leads of 5%+, (Yougov, Yougov, Yougov, Opinium) :-o ?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2019

    Sure, there have been some outliers, but far more polls that are unchanged. Only polls showing change are deemed newsworthy. Considering how the polls have remained neck and neck through 18 months of turmoil, I cannot see why a sudden shift now. People are pissed off with politicians generally and I sense no desire for a GE from the public, though the Politicians may want one for a displacement activity.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 14,488
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    MTimT said:

    TSE, I really don't see any normal life scenario where these figures improve for Trump. Those who leave him are not coming back, and every month he comes up with a new way to test his base's loyalty to him - be they farmers or steelworkers or coalworkers.

    Short of a spectacularly successful and necessary war, I don't see this turning around. Thank god.

    You may be underestimating the Democrats' ability to bollocks this thing up
    It’s true that there’s some evidence of that, but even the Governor of Virginia is likely to be gone well before next year...
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/02/northam-looked-ready-to-moonwalk-at-news-conference-before-his-wife-stopped-him.html

    But I suspect even Warren, who is very unlikely to get the nomination, would beat Trump.
    Was Northam the Klansman or the black and white minstrel in the photo?
    It might be a minority view, but I don’t get this.

    This was over 35 years ago when he was in his early 20s and mucking around with his mates.

    If his political opponents have evidence of unchanged racist attitudes that are affecting his politics today, then fine, but I don’t see why he should resign just because this photo has been discovered.
    It's his own side who have turned on him.
    Yes, I don’t understand that either.
    He ran a lot of attack ads that branded his Republican opponent as a white nationalist in 2017. So, the Republicans are happy to put the boot in, while the Democrats find him an embarrassment.
    It's evidence of something else, though, something we've discussed in the past. Given how easy it is to dig up youthful indiscretions a candidate, especially in the US, has to have none, or at least none where there's any evidence whatsoever of damn-foolery.
    Or even, as with Cameron and the pig business, 'sort of credible' allegations.

    Which tends to mean squeaky clean apparatchiks.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 7,813

    MTimT said:

    TSE, I really don't see any normal life scenario where these figures improve for Trump. Those who leave him are not coming back, and every month he comes up with a new way to test his base's loyalty to him - be they farmers or steelworkers or coalworkers.

    Short of a spectacularly successful and necessary war, I don't see this turning around. Thank god.

    It would be a nice irony if virtuous evangelicals were Trump's last redoubt.
    Though it is the Evangelicals who do not attend church (!?!) who are the Trumpites.

  • Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    MTimT said:

    TSE, I really don't see any normal life scenario where these figures improve for Trump. Those who leave him are not coming back, and every month he comes up with a new way to test his base's loyalty to him - be they farmers or steelworkers or coalworkers.

    Short of a spectacularly successful and necessary war, I don't see this turning around. Thank god.

    You may be underestimating the Democrats' ability to bollocks this thing up
    It’s true that there’s some evidence of that, but even the Governor of Virginia is likely to be gone well before next year...
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/02/northam-looked-ready-to-moonwalk-at-news-conference-before-his-wife-stopped-him.html

    But I suspect even Warren, who is very unlikely to get the nomination, would beat Trump.
    Was Northam the Klansman or the black and white minstrel in the photo?
    It might be a minority view, but I don’t get this.

    This was over 35 years ago when he was in his early 20s and mucking around with his mates.

    If his political opponents have evidence of unchanged racist attitudes that are affecting his politics today, then fine, but I don’t see why he should resign just because this photo has been discovered.
    It's his own side who have turned on him.
    Yes, I don’t understand that either.
    He ran a lot of attack ads that branded his Republican opponent as a white nationalist in 2017. So, the Republicans are happy to put the boot in, while the Democrats find him an embarrassment.
    It's evidence of something else, though, something we've discussed in the past. Given how easy it is to dig up youthful indiscretions a candidate, especially in the US, has to have none, or at least none where there's any evidence whatsoever of damn-foolery.
    Or even, as with Cameron and the pig business, 'sort of credible' allegations.

    Which tends to mean squeaky clean apparatchiks.
    Squeaky clean, eh? Like Donald?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,939

    Meanwhile, as well as not being allowed to leave the EU because Northern Ireland's five remaining Republican dissidents might blow up another lamppost, it appears that we're also not allowed to leave the EU in case enraged Hampstead vegans rise up and try to stone the Queen to death with root vegetables and tofu.

    The most remarkable thing in this morning's Sunday Times report is, however, the suggestion that "Whitehall has drawn up secret plans." Whitehall is incapable of doing secret anything. It's not so much a leaking sieve as a tap turned full-on. And stuck.

    Foxy said:

    Considering how stable the polling has been for 18 months, I wouldn't belive a single poll. Indeed despite being done on the same day, this poll was not deemed newsworthy:

    I wouldn't take any VI poll as a useful indicator of electoral performance, irrespective of whether it was part of a trend or not. They are totally unreliable.
    How do you know Whitehall is incapable of doing secret anything? By definition, if they were capable we wouldn't know it.

    :smile:
  • Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    >Considering how stable the polling has been for 18 months, I wouldn't believe a single poll.

    Doesn't this actually make FOUR (out of 13) since New Year with Tory leads of 5%+, (Yougov, Yougov, Yougov, Opinium) :-o ?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2019

    Sure, there have been some outliers, but far more polls that are unchanged. Only polls showing change are deemed newsworthy. Considering how the polls have remained neck and neck through 18 months of turmoil, I cannot see why a sudden shift now. People are pissed off with politicians generally and I sense no desire for a GE from the public, though the Politicians may want one for a displacement activity.
    The polls are not wrong, but they are likely to read very differently once we have reached some kind of conclusion regarding Brexit.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,439
    Scott_P said:
    Not surprising with Corbyn leading the Party.
    On the subject of polls. Don't believe any of them. Even if ALL the Polls had the Tories 20% a head, I still wouldn't believe them. Comments such as "they got it right at the last election" prove nothing
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 4,081
    MattW said:

    >Considering how stable the polling has been for 18 months, I wouldn't believe a single poll.

    Doesn't this actually make FOUR (out of 13) since New Year with Tory leads of 5%+, (Yougov, Yougov, Yougov, Opinium) :-o ?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2019

    Of the 13 polls this year, Tories have been ahead in six of them, Labour ahead in six of them, and one dead heat.

    The moving average puts the Tories 1% ahead, 39% v 38% for Labour, and 20 seats short of an overall majority.

    Having said that, I can see the attraction of a June poll for Mrs May in spite of the disaster last time. Bring it on!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 24,355

    Meanwhile, as well as not being allowed to leave the EU because Northern Ireland's five remaining Republican dissidents might blow up another lamppost, it appears that we're also not allowed to leave the EU in case enraged Hampstead vegans rise up and try to stone the Queen to death with root vegetables and tofu.

    The most remarkable thing in this morning's Sunday Times report is, however, the suggestion that "Whitehall has drawn up secret plans." Whitehall is incapable of doing secret anything. It's not so much a leaking sieve as a tap turned full-on. And stuck.

    Foxy said:

    Considering how stable the polling has been for 18 months, I wouldn't belive a single poll. Indeed despite being done on the same day, this poll was not deemed newsworthy:

    I wouldn't take any VI poll as a useful indicator of electoral performance, irrespective of whether it was part of a trend or not. They are totally unreliable.
    How do you know Whitehall is incapable of doing secret anything? By definition, if they were capable we wouldn't know it.

    :smile:
    They've kept the lid on the story that, regardless of how bad things get, Ministers will still have access to a massive stash of chocolate Hobnobs, stored in disued underground tunnels beneath Selfridges.

    The bastards.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 7,813

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    MTimT said:

    TSE, I really don't see any normal life scenario where these figures improve for Trump. Those who leave him are not coming back, and every month he comes up with a new way to test his base's loyalty to him - be they farmers or steelworkers or coalworkers.

    Short of a spectacularly successful and necessary war, I don't see this turning around. Thank god.

    You may be underestimating the Democrats' ability to bollocks this thing up
    It’s true that there’s some evidence of that, but even the Governor of Virginia is likely to be gone well before next year...
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/02/northam-looked-ready-to-moonwalk-at-news-conference-before-his-wife-stopped-him.html

    But I suspect even Warren, who is very unlikely to get the nomination, would beat Trump.
    Was Northam the Klansman or the black and white minstrel in the photo?
    It might be a minority view, but I don’t get this.

    This was over 35 years ago when he was in his early 20s and mucking around with his mates.

    If his political opponents have evidence of unchanged racist attitudes that are affecting his politics today, then fine, but I don’t see why he should resign just because this photo has been discovered.
    It's his own side who have turned on him.
    Yes, I don’t understand that either.
    He ran a lot of attack ads that branded his Republican opponent as a white nationalist in 2017. So, the Republicans are happy to put the boot in, while the Democrats find him an embarrassment.
    It's evidence of something else, though, something we've discussed in the past. Given how easy it is to dig up youthful indiscretions a candidate, especially in the US, has to have none, or at least none where there's any evidence whatsoever of damn-foolery.
    Or even, as with Cameron and the pig business, 'sort of credible' allegations.

    Which tends to mean squeaky clean apparatchiks.
    A lot depends on how it was dealt with, Ed Balls was not affected by his Nazi genital staring photos, because he acknowledged it and apologised.

    https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/ed-balls-s-not-embarrassed-by-nazi-pic-1.36772
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,439

    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    >Considering how stable the polling has been for 18 months, I wouldn't believe a single poll.

    Doesn't this actually make FOUR (out of 13) since New Year with Tory leads of 5%+, (Yougov, Yougov, Yougov, Opinium) :-o ?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2019

    Sure, there have been some outliers, but far more polls that are unchanged. Only polls showing change are deemed newsworthy. Considering how the polls have remained neck and neck through 18 months of turmoil, I cannot see why a sudden shift now. People are pissed off with politicians generally and I sense no desire for a GE from the public, though the Politicians may want one for a displacement activity.
    The polls are not wrong, but they are likely to read very differently once we have reached some kind of conclusion regarding Brexit.
    Wrong, All the polls are wrong, by how much is impossible to say, but they are wrong. The last "correction" by ICM and others was supposed to take account of a new phenomenon.. who know if that's still true.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 16,806
    edited February 3
    Chris said:

    IanB2 said:

    In the same speech when May said she would stand down before the next election, she also said she would love to give it another go and (try to) expunge the stain of 2017. Having an election in a hurry is the only way she gets to live her dream.

    Can't she just break her promise? Hardly a disqualification for a leading politician.

    If she pulls off a withdrawal agreement, there will be plenty more vital negotiations with the EU to do. It would be irresponsible for her to resign before her work is complete. And so on. And so forth.
    More likely she gets the deal and thinks about a GE during the ensuing honeymoon. Especially if Labour emerges from its debacle split and in recriminations (the Sunday Times story about the impending Labour split and the ST story about a possible GE maybe not coincidentally in the same edition?).

    Against such a background May's reputation would, briefly at least, soar (after which the sad reality of Brexit, and a looming downturn, point to bad news all the way), and she must know she probably wont get another chance, ever.

    Despite the Tories appearing more seriously divided, it is entirely credible that landing Brexit (noting the big 'if') will be the thing that splits Labour.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 2,716
    Scott_P said:
    "In Eastwood, a constituency with a sizeable Jewish population, membership figures have slumped by nearly 40%."
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,497

    Little snippet in the Sunday Times: 10 days ago, Hammond called in 15 Tory Vice-Chairman and Parliamentary aides to sound out a second referendum. "He was surprised by the amount of pushback he got."

    Remarkable how the Tories seems to be populated by folk who have no ability to read the mood of their own party until they are smacked up side the head 15 times.

    Hammond seems to be living in his own little world in the Treasury, he’s gone completely native. If the PM has any sense (yes, I know) she’d replace him with Gove.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 7,813

    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    >Considering how stable the polling has been for 18 months, I wouldn't believe a single poll.

    Doesn't this actually make FOUR (out of 13) since New Year with Tory leads of 5%+, (Yougov, Yougov, Yougov, Opinium) :-o ?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2019

    Sure, there have been some outliers, but far more polls that are unchanged. Only polls showing change are deemed newsworthy. Considering how the polls have remained neck and neck through 18 months of turmoil, I cannot see why a sudden shift now. People are pissed off with politicians generally and I sense no desire for a GE from the public, though the Politicians may want one for a displacement activity.
    The polls are not wrong, but they are likely to read very differently once we have reached some kind of conclusion regarding Brexit.
    Not quite sure what you mean, but certainly the retrospectoscope is very effective at interpreting data!

    Theoretical questions on a GE, when hardly anyone expects one are quite misleading, as was well demonstrated 2 years ago. I remember the debate here was whether May would have a majority of 200 or just 100.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 12,980
    /

    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    >Considering how stable the polling has been for 18 months, I wouldn't believe a single poll.

    Doesn't this actually make FOUR (out of 13) since New Year with Tory leads of 5%+, (Yougov, Yougov, Yougov, Opinium) :-o ?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2019

    Sure, there have been some outliers, but far more polls that are unchanged. Only polls showing change are deemed newsworthy. Considering how the polls have remained neck and neck through 18 months of turmoil, I cannot see why a sudden shift now. People are pissed off with politicians generally and I sense no desire for a GE from the public, though the Politicians may want one for a displacement activity.
    The polls are not wrong, but they are likely to read very differently once we have reached some kind of conclusion regarding Brexit.
    A touching faith that Brexit will be concluded any time soon.

    Imagine having May negotiate the FTA. She knows - and cares nothing - about business or services. She’s the last person who should be in charge. The idea that she should be given even more power to ignore everyone and go her own sweet way is horrific, frankly. She needs to go.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 7,813
    Sandpit said:

    Little snippet in the Sunday Times: 10 days ago, Hammond called in 15 Tory Vice-Chairman and Parliamentary aides to sound out a second referendum. "He was surprised by the amount of pushback he got."

    Remarkable how the Tories seems to be populated by folk who have no ability to read the mood of their own party until they are smacked up side the head 15 times.

    Hammond seems to be living in his own little world in the Treasury, he’s gone completely native. If the PM has any sense (yes, I know) she’d replace him with Gove.
    Hammond is the only grown up in the cabinet. The Tories need that.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 10,601

    Or even, as with Cameron and the pig business, 'sort of credible' allegations.

    Now Cameron has disappeared to not write his memoirs, did we ever learn what the pig-related initiation ceremony was all about? Some pb Tories at the time were apoplectic in their denials, although it is hard to imagine any voter would have cared very much either way since everyone already knew Cameron was dead posh and up to high jinx at Oxford.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 834
    Sandpit said:

    Little snippet in the Sunday Times: 10 days ago, Hammond called in 15 Tory Vice-Chairman and Parliamentary aides to sound out a second referendum. "He was surprised by the amount of pushback he got."

    Remarkable how the Tories seems to be populated by folk who have no ability to read the mood of their own party until they are smacked up side the head 15 times.

    Hammond seems to be living in his own little world in the Treasury, he’s gone completely native. If the PM has any sense (yes, I know) she’d replace him with Gove.
    I don’t know if it’s about native, when you are in charge of the money, the facts don’t change. He can see a mess and sounding out a series of solutions.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 4,081
    edited February 3
    IanB2 said:

    I think the headers verb is the wrong tense. Trump doesn't seem to be alienating many at all. He had alienated a lit at the start but the proportion of unalienated people he is alienating is minimal.

    It's not a great graph, tbh. The data series are all over the place with some significant outliers. And it is statistically flawed in that straight line regression is being used to try to make sense of this data, when there is no reason whatsoever why a time-series trend should be a straight line to begin with. Popularity rises and falls; sticking a straight line through it is arbitrary and wrong.
    Agreed. I think the key statistic is the average over the period.

    45% would definitely not vote for Trump versus 35% definitely not voting for Obama. By inspection, the difference seems to be statistically significant. Offset partly by 10% saying they probably would not vote for Trump versus 15% saying the same about Obama.

    Conclusion is that Trump is much less popular than Obama was in the first two years of their presidencies. Quelle surprise.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 24,355

    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    >Considering how stable the polling has been for 18 months, I wouldn't believe a single poll.

    Doesn't this actually make FOUR (out of 13) since New Year with Tory leads of 5%+, (Yougov, Yougov, Yougov, Opinium) :-o ?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2019

    Sure, there have been some outliers, but far more polls that are unchanged. Only polls showing change are deemed newsworthy. Considering how the polls have remained neck and neck through 18 months of turmoil, I cannot see why a sudden shift now. People are pissed off with politicians generally and I sense no desire for a GE from the public, though the Politicians may want one for a displacement activity.
    The polls are not wrong, but they are likely to read very differently once we have reached some kind of conclusion regarding Brexit.
    Yep. The next election will have an element of a Brexit blame-game. Punishing the Government if there hasn't been any Brexit at all by the next election seems likely. Punishing everybody if has happened by No Deal. (The Govt. will get a hearing for the line that "We had a deal that would have prevented No Deal. But MPs wouldn't back it because they felt they knew better... Clearly, they didn't.") Punishing Labour disproportionately for having let it happen also seems persuasive. "What's the point of voting for Corbyn if he can't stop Brexit?" will be oft-heard on the doorsteps by Labour canvassers, I'd suggest.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,497

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    MTimT said:

    TSE, I really don't see any normal life scenario where these figures improve for Trump. Those who leave him are not coming back, and every month he comes up with a new way to test his base's loyalty to him - be they farmers or steelworkers or coalworkers.

    Short of a spectacularly successful and necessary war, I don't see this turning around. Thank god.

    You may be underestimating the Democrats' ability to bollocks this thing up
    It’s true that there’s some evidence of that, but even the Governor of Virginia is likely to be gone well before next year...
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/02/northam-looked-ready-to-moonwalk-at-news-conference-before-his-wife-stopped-him.html

    But I suspect even Warren, who is very unlikely to get the nomination, would beat Trump.
    Was Northam the Klansman or the black and white minstrel in the photo?
    It might be a minority view, but I don’t get this.

    This was over 35 years ago when he was in his early 20s and mucking around with his mates.

    If his political opponents have evidence of unchanged racist attitudes that are affecting his politics today, then fine, but I don’t see why he should resign just because this photo has been discovered.
    It's his own side who have turned on him.
    Yes, I don’t understand that either.
    He ran a lot of attack ads that branded his Republican opponent as a white nationalist in 2017. So, the Republicans are happy to put the boot in, while the Democrats find him an embarrassment.
    It's evidence of something else, though, something we've discussed in the past. Given how easy it is to dig up youthful indiscretions a candidate, especially in the US, has to have none, or at least none where there's any evidence whatsoever of damn-foolery.
    Or even, as with Cameron and the pig business, 'sort of credible' allegations.

    Which tends to mean squeaky clean apparatchiks.
    And what’s going to happen a decade (or less) from now, when those seeking public office were routinely posting every university night out on social media for all to see?

    People born in 2001 are now eligible to stand for Parliament, sorry to make everyone feel old.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 2,341
    IanB2 said:

    Chris said:

    IanB2 said:

    In the same speech when May said she would stand down before the next election, she also said she would love to give it another go and (try to) expunge the stain of 2017. Having an election in a hurry is the only way she gets to live her dream.

    Can't she just break her promise? Hardly a disqualification for a leading politician.

    If she pulls off a withdrawal agreement, there will be plenty more vital negotiations with the EU to do. It would be irresponsible for her to resign before her work is complete. And so on. And so forth.
    More likely she gets the deal and thinks about a GE during the ensuing honeymoon. Especially if Labour emerges from its debacle split and in recriminations (the Sunday Times story about the impending Labour split and the ST story about a possible GE maybe not coincidentally in the same edition?).

    Against such a background May's reputation would, briefly at least, soar (after which the sad reality of Brexit, and a looming downturn, point to bad news all the way), and she must know she probably wont get another chance, ever.

    Despite the Tories appearing more seriously divided, it is entirely credible that landing Brexit (noting the big 'if') will be the thing that splits Labour.
    It would be funny if May achieved massive poll leads and went for a snap election on that basis. And then ... ?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 12,980
    Sandpit said:

    Little snippet in the Sunday Times: 10 days ago, Hammond called in 15 Tory Vice-Chairman and Parliamentary aides to sound out a second referendum. "He was surprised by the amount of pushback he got."

    Remarkable how the Tories seems to be populated by folk who have no ability to read the mood of their own party until they are smacked up side the head 15 times.

    Hammond seems to be living in his own little world in the Treasury, he’s gone completely native. If the PM has any sense (yes, I know) she’d replace him with Gove.
    Maybe Hammond has a better grasp of the figures and the realities of Britain’s economy than a PM who seems not to understand that her deal was defeated by the largest majority ever and that the EU has repeatedly made clear that a WA without a backstop is a non-starter.

    How many times does she have to be smacked on the side of the head before these two realities penetrate her bone-headed brain?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 2,103
    edited February 3
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    MTimT said:

    TSE, I really don't see any normal life scenario where these figures improve for Trump. Those who leave him are not coming back, and every month he comes up with a new way to test his base's loyalty to him - be they farmers or steelworkers or coalworkers.

    Short of a spectacularly successful and necessary war, I don't see this turning around. Thank god.

    You may be underestimating the Democrats' ability to bollocks this thing up
    It’s true that there’s some evidence of that, but even the Governor of Virginia is likely to be gone well before next year...
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/02/northam-looked-ready-to-moonwalk-at-news-conference-before-his-wife-stopped-him.html

    But I suspect even Warren, who is very unlikely to get the nomination, would beat Trump.
    Was Northam the Klansman or the black and white minstrel in the photo?
    It might be a minority view, but I don’t get this.

    This was over 35 years ago when he was in his early 20s and mucking around with his mates.

    If his political opponents have evidence of unchanged racist attitudes that are affecting his politics today, then fine, but I don’t see why he should resign just because this photo has been discovered.
    It's his own side who have turned on him.
    Yes, I don’t understand that either.
    He ran a lot of attack ads that branded his Republican opponent as a white nationalist in 2017. So, the Republicans are happy to put the boot in, while the Democrats find him an embarrassment.
    The politics of this interest me.

    This came to prominence via Fox, and follows on from the comprehensive faceplant over the 16-year old schoolboy in the US media.

    I would love to see this marking the high-water mark of Twitter lynch mobs based on faked-up or irrelevant outrage, but unfortunately I do not see it happening.

    What would have happened if he had refused to apologise until he had checked it out properly?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 14,488
    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    MTimT said:

    TSE, I really don't see any normal life scenario where these figures improve for Trump. Those who leave him are not coming back, and every month he comes up with a new way to test his base's loyalty to him - be they farmers or steelworkers or coalworkers.

    Short of a spectacularly successful and necessary war, I don't see this turning around. Thank god.

    You may be underestimating the Democrats' ability to bollocks this thing up
    It’s true that there’s some evidence of that, but even the Governor of Virginia is likely to be gone well before next year...
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/02/northam-looked-ready-to-moonwalk-at-news-conference-before-his-wife-stopped-him.html

    But I suspect even Warren, who is very unlikely to get the nomination, would beat Trump.
    Was Northam the Klansman or the black and white minstrel in the photo?
    It might be a minority view, but I don’t get this.

    This was over 35 years ago when he was in his early 20s and mucking around with his mates.

    If his political opponents have evidence of unchanged racist attitudes that are affecting his politics today, then fine, but I don’t see why he should resign just because this photo has been discovered.
    It's his own side who have turned on him.
    Yes, I don’t understand that either.
    He ran a lot of attack ads that branded his Republican opponent as a white nationalist in 2017. So, the Republicans are happy to put the boot in, while the Democrats find him an embarrassment.
    It's evidence of something else, though, something we've discussed in the past. Given how easy it is to dig up youthful indiscretions a candidate, especially in the US, has to have none, or at least none where there's any evidence whatsoever of damn-foolery.
    Or even, as with Cameron and the pig business, 'sort of credible' allegations.

    Which tends to mean squeaky clean apparatchiks.
    And what’s going to happen a decade (or less) from now, when those seeking public office were routinely posting every university night out on social media for all to see?

    People born in 2001 are now eligible to stand for Parliament, sorry to make everyone feel old.
    Quite. Although Nick Clegg's admission of practicing free love, or something like it, didn't seem to affect him. I hope that we'll all return to a more tolerant 'you're allowed to be a bit daft when you're young' attitude.
  • Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    >Considering how stable the polling has been for 18 months, I wouldn't believe a single poll.

    Doesn't this actually make FOUR (out of 13) since New Year with Tory leads of 5%+, (Yougov, Yougov, Yougov, Opinium) :-o ?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2019

    Sure, there have been some outliers, but far more polls that are unchanged. Only polls showing change are deemed newsworthy. Considering how the polls have remained neck and neck through 18 months of turmoil, I cannot see why a sudden shift now. People are pissed off with politicians generally and I sense no desire for a GE from the public, though the Politicians may want one for a displacement activity.
    The polls are not wrong, but they are likely to read very differently once we have reached some kind of conclusion regarding Brexit.
    Yep. The next election will have an element of a Brexit blame-game. Punishing the Government if there hasn't been any Brexit at all by the next election seems likely. Punishing everybody if has happened by No Deal. (The Govt. will get a hearing for the line that "We had a deal that would have prevented No Deal. But MPs wouldn't back it because they felt they knew better... Clearly, they didn't.") Punishing Labour disproportionately for having let it happen also seems persuasive. "What's the point of voting for Corbyn if he can't stop Brexit?" will be oft-heard on the doorsteps by Labour canvassers, I'd suggest.
    Yes, I agree with all that, Mark, especially the Labour side.

    Labour could have strangled Brexit at birth if the Leadership had acted decisively. It has missed a legion of opportunities to swing its weight behind anti-Brexit sentiment. It is unlikely to escape censure from its own supporters when Brexit comes about. How much depends on what happens from here on in, but it's a bit late for Labour to be pivoting.

    Whatever opprobrium the Tory Party suffers, it will be mitigated by the reaction of pro-EU Labour supporters to the behaviour of their Party's Leadership.

    There's a lot of blame to spread around, and a lot of people to spread it on.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 760

    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    MTimT said:

    TSE, I really don't see any normal life scenario where these figures improve for Trump. Those who leave him are not coming back, and every month he comes up with a new way to test his base's loyalty to him - be they farmers or steelworkers or coalworkers.

    Short of a spectacularly successful and necessary war, I don't see this turning around. Thank god.

    You may be underestimating the Democrats' ability to bollocks this thing up
    It’s true that there’s some evidence of that, but even the Governor of Virginia is likely to be gone well before next year...
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/02/northam-looked-ready-to-moonwalk-at-news-conference-before-his-wife-stopped-him.html

    But I suspect even Warren, who is very unlikely to get the nomination, would beat Trump.
    Was Northam the Klansman or the black and white minstrel in the photo?
    It might be a minority view, but I don’t get this.

    This was over 35 years ago when he was in his early 20s and mucking around with his mates.

    If his political opponents have evidence of unchanged racist attitudes that are affecting his politics today, then fine, but I don’t see why he should resign just because this photo has been discovered.
    I suspect the point is that the Democrats tried to disqualify Kavanaugh from the Supreme Court on the basis of his high school yearbook, and therefore a) this sort of thing is now considered fair game and b) the Democrats can hardly complain without looking like hypocrites.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 834

    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    >Considering how stable the polling has been for 18 months, I wouldn't believe a single poll.

    Doesn't this actually make FOUR (out of 13) since New Year with Tory leads of 5%+, (Yougov, Yougov, Yougov, Opinium) :-o ?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2019

    Sure, there have been some outliers, but far more polls that are unchanged. Only polls showing change are deemed newsworthy. Considering how the polls have remained neck and neck through 18 months of turmoil, I cannot see why a sudden shift now. People are pissed off with politicians generally and I sense no desire for a GE from the public, though the Politicians may want one for a displacement activity.
    The polls are not wrong, but they are likely to read very differently once we have reached some kind of conclusion regarding Brexit.
    It’s a serious issue for the parties. Both sides have lost a wedge of voters and acquired a whole set of new ones based on Brexit. Does the clock reset post Brexit or do the new lines maintain?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 2,012
    IanB2 said:

    In the same speech when May said she would stand down before the next election, she also said she would love to give it another go and (try to) expunge the stain of 2017. Having an election in a hurry is the only way she gets to live her dream.

    A highly relevant observation.

    I am convinced that calling a snap election is TM's backstop if she cannot get her deal through this parliament. There is massive personal upside for her if she wins it and her downside (losing) is negligible, since her other options (adopt Labour policy or give up on Brexit) lead to an ignominious exit from number 10 in very short order.

    Question is, will the backstop be needed? I think probably not, but this I am less sure about.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,497

    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    MTimT said:

    .

    It might be a minority view, but I don’t get this.

    This was over 35 years ago when he was in his early 20s and mucking around with his mates.

    If his political opponents have evidence of unchanged racist attitudes that are affecting his politics today, then fine, but I don’t see why he should resign just because this photo has been discovered.
    It's his own side who have turned on him.
    Yes, I don’t understand that either.
    He ran a lot of attack ads that branded his Republican opponent as a white nationalist in 2017. So, the Republicans are happy to put the boot in, while the Democrats find him an embarrassment.
    It's evidence of something else, though, something we've discussed in the past. Given how easy it is to dig up youthful indiscretions a candidate, especially in the US, has to have none, or at least none where there's any evidence whatsoever of damn-foolery.
    Or even, as with Cameron and the pig business, 'sort of credible' allegations.

    Which tends to mean squeaky clean apparatchiks.
    And what’s going to happen a decade (or less) from now, when those seeking public office were routinely posting every university night out on social media for all to see?

    People born in 2001 are now eligible to stand for Parliament, sorry to make everyone feel old.
    Quite. Although Nick Clegg's admission of practicing free love, or something like it, didn't seem to affect him. I hope that we'll all return to a more tolerant 'you're allowed to be a bit daft when you're young' attitude.
    It would be good to think so, but sadly all the evidence is pointing the other way.

    Remember that last year we saw the spectacle of a nominee for the Supreme Court being questioned for days about how much he loved beer at college more than thirty years ago.

    Hopefully, as it becomes more obvious that pretty much everyone did silly things as students, society will become somewhat more tolerant of these things provided no-one got hurt at the time.

    Someone referred to Ed Balls and the Nazi uniform up thread, I wonder how that story would have gone down now, seven years later, with all that’s happened in the meantime. I suspect he’d not have get away with it as easily as he did back in 2012.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 14,488

    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    >Considering how stable the polling has been for 18 months, I wouldn't believe a single poll.

    Doesn't this actually make FOUR (out of 13) since New Year with Tory leads of 5%+, (Yougov, Yougov, Yougov, Opinium) :-o ?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2019

    Sure, there have been some outliers, but far more polls that are unchanged. Only polls showing change are deemed newsworthy. Considering how the polls have remained neck and neck through 18 months of turmoil, I cannot see why a sudden shift now. People are pissed off with politicians generally and I sense no desire for a GE from the public, though the Politicians may want one for a displacement activity.
    The polls are not wrong, but they are likely to read very differently once we have reached some kind of conclusion regarding Brexit.
    Yep. The next election will have an element of a Brexit blame-game. Punishing the Government if there hasn't been any Brexit at all by the next election seems likely. Punishing everybody if has happened by No Deal. (The Govt. will get a hearing for the line that "We had a deal that would have prevented No Deal. But MPs wouldn't back it because they felt they knew better... Clearly, they didn't.") Punishing Labour disproportionately for having let it happen also seems persuasive. "What's the point of voting for Corbyn if he can't stop Brexit?" will be oft-heard on the doorsteps by Labour canvassers, I'd suggest.
    Yes, I agree with all that, Mark, especially the Labour side.

    Labour could have strangled Brexit at birth if the Leadership had acted decisively. It has missed a legion of opportunities to swing its weight behind anti-Brexit sentiment. It is unlikely to escape censure from its own supporters when Brexit comes about. How much depends on what happens from here on in, but it's a bit late for Labour to be pivoting.

    Whatever opprobrium the Tory Party suffers, it will be mitigated by the reaction of pro-EU Labour supporters to the behaviour of their Party's Leadership.

    There's a lot of blame to spread around, and a lot of people to spread it on.
    Corbyn and some at least of those around him were supporters of Tony Benn, who was, if not the leader, certainly one of the principal opponents of our continued membership in the 1975 campaign.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 2,341

    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    MTimT said:

    TSE, I really don't see any normal life scenario where these figures improve for Trump. Those who leave him are not coming back, and every month he comes up with a new way to test his base's loyalty to him - be they farmers or steelworkers or coalworkers.

    Short of a spectacularly successful and necessary war, I don't see this turning around. Thank god.

    You may be underestimating the Democrats' ability to bollocks this thing up
    It’s true that there’s some evidence of that, but even the Governor of Virginia is likely to be gone well before next year...
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/02/northam-looked-ready-to-moonwalk-at-news-conference-before-his-wife-stopped-him.html

    But I suspect even Warren, who is very unlikely to get the nomination, would beat Trump.
    Was Northam the Klansman or the black and white minstrel in the photo?
    It might be a minority view, but I don’t get this.

    This was over 35 years ago when he was in his early 20s and mucking around with his mates.

    If his political opponents have evidence of unchanged racist attitudes that are affecting his politics today, then fine, but I don’t see why he should resign just because this photo has been discovered.
    It's his own side who have turned on him.
    Yes, I don’t understand that either.
    He ran a lot of attack ads that branded his Republican opponent as a white nationalist in 2017. So, the Republicans are happy to put the boot in, while the Democrats find him an embarrassment.
    It's evidence of something else, though, something we've discussed in the past. Given how easy it is to dig up youthful indiscretions a candidate, especially in the US, has to have none, or at least none where there's any evidence whatsoever of damn-foolery.
    Or even, as with Cameron and the pig business, 'sort of credible' allegations.

    Which tends to mean squeaky clean apparatchiks.
    And what’s going to happen a decade (or less) from now, when those seeking public office were routinely posting every university night out on social media for all to see?

    People born in 2001 are now eligible to stand for Parliament, sorry to make everyone feel old.
    Quite. Although Nick Clegg's admission of practicing free love, or something like it, didn't seem to affect him. ...
    Nor indeed did his arson conviction!
  • Scott_P said:
    Justin will be along soon to tell us labour are on track for 6-7 gains at the next GE
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 834
    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    MTimT said:

    TSE, I really don't see any normal life scenario where these figures improve for Trump. Those who leave him are not coming back, and every month he comes up with a new way to test his base's loyalty to him - be they farmers or steelworkers or coalworkers.

    Short of a spectacularly successful and necessary war, I don't see this turning around. Thank god.

    You may be underestimating the Democrats' ability to bollocks this thing up
    It’s true that there’s some evidence of that, but even the Governor of Virginia is likely to be gone well before next year...
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/02/northam-looked-ready-to-moonwalk-at-news-conference-before-his-wife-stopped-him.html

    But I suspect even Warren, who is very unlikely to get the nomination, would beat Trump.
    Was Northam the Klansman or the black and white minstrel in the photo?
    It might be a minority view, but I don’t get this.

    This was over 35 years ago when he was in his early 20s and mucking around with his mates.

    If his political opponents have evidence of unchanged racist attitudes that are affecting his politics today, then fine, but I don’t see why he should resign just because this photo has been discovered.
    It's his own side who have turned on him.
    Yes, I don’t understand that either.
    He ran a lot of attack ads that branded his Republican opponent as a white nationalist in 2017. So, the Republicans are happy to put the boot in, while the Democrats find him an embarrassment.
    It's evidence of something else, though, something we've discussed in the past. Given how easy it is to dig up youthful indiscretions a candidate, especially in the US, has to have none, or at least none where there's any evidence whatsoever of damn-foolery.
    Or even, as with Cameron and the pig business, 'sort of credible' allegations.

    Which tends to mean squeaky clean apparatchiks.
    A lot depends on how it was dealt with, Ed Balls was not affected by his Nazi genital staring photos, because he acknowledged it and apologised.

    https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/ed-balls-s-not-embarrassed-by-nazi-pic-1.36772
    A lot has happened since then. Identity politics is now even stronger. Context is now no longer important.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 28,073
    Endillion said:

    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    MTimT said:

    TSE, I really don't see any normal life scenario where these figures improve for Trump. Those who leave him are not coming back, and every month he comes up with a new way to test his base's loyalty to him - be they farmers or steelworkers or coalworkers.

    Short of a spectacularly successful and necessary war, I don't see this turning around. Thank god.

    You may be underestimating the Democrats' ability to bollocks this thing up
    It’s true that there’s some evidence of that, but even the Governor of Virginia is likely to be gone well before next year...
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/02/northam-looked-ready-to-moonwalk-at-news-conference-before-his-wife-stopped-him.html

    But I suspect even Warren, who is very unlikely to get the nomination, would beat Trump.
    Was Northam the Klansman or the black and white minstrel in the photo?
    It might be a minority view, but I don’t get this.

    This was over 35 years ago when he was in his early 20s and mucking around with his mates.

    If his political opponents have evidence of unchanged racist attitudes that are affecting his politics today, then fine, but I don’t see why he should resign just because this photo has been discovered.
    I suspect the point is that the Democrats tried to disqualify Kavanaugh from the Supreme Court on the basis of his high school yearbook, and therefore a) this sort of thing is now considered fair game and b) the Democrats can hardly complain without looking like hypocrites.
    Well, yeah. When I was 25 I went to a fancy dress house party with some friends for which the theme was “bad taste and offensive”.

    Can you guess what some of the costumes we wore were like?

    It just so happens it was one of the best house parties I’d ever been to and we all had a raucously fun and drunken time. I also met one of my old girlfriends there and have stayed in touch since.

    I shudder to think that any photos of that leaked onto media/social media, now, could effectively destroy one’s character for life. And very (very) few people are so “clean” they’ve done nothing indiscreet in their youth, so why the ludicrous Puritanism and pitchfork mob attitude?

    Is it any wonder people don’t go into politics?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 52,143
    edited February 3
    The 47% who told Morning Consult they 'definitely would not' vote for Trump is close to the 48% who voted for Hillary in 2016.

    Much also depends on who Trump's opponent is, as the new Glengariff poll from the key swing state of Michigan also reported on 538 shows while Biden leads Trump by a comfortable 53% to 40% and Sanders by 51% to 40%, Harris only leads Trump by 47% to 42% and Warren only leads Trump by 46% to 43% making the latter much more beatable from Trump's perspective

    https://www.clickondetroit.com/michigan-politics/wdivdetroit-news-poll-trump-faces-uphill-re-election-battle-in-michigan
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 760
    Sandpit said:



    t would be good to think so, but sadly all the evidence is pointing the other way.

    Remember that last year we saw the spectacle of a nominee for the Supreme Court being questioned for days about how much he loved beer at college more than thirty years ago.

    Hopefully, as it becomes more obvious that pretty much everyone did silly things as students, society will become somewhat more tolerant of these things provided no-one got hurt at the time.

    Someone referred to Ed Balls and the Nazi uniform up thread, I wonder how that story would have gone down now, seven years later, with all that’s happened in the meantime. I suspect he’d not have get away with it as easily as he did back in 2012.

    We're currently in a transition phase where the people in power never had to worry about social media, and the people they have to make decisions about (employees, politicians etc) did. It'll resolve itself out to a new equilibrium once the older generations have mostly disappeared and everyone's in the same boat.

    Assuming nothing else changes in that period, of course...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,596
    Mr. Notme, we can't contaminate the purity of goodspeak with the poison of context.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,242
    Sandpit said:



    Remember that last year we saw the spectacle of a nominee for the Supreme Court being questioned for days about how much he loved beer at college more than thirty years ago.

    Yes, that's what it was all about. Beer. Definitely beer.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 2,716
    edited February 3
    Cyclefree said:

    Sandpit said:

    Little snippet in the Sunday Times: 10 days ago, Hammond called in 15 Tory Vice-Chairman and Parliamentary aides to sound out a second referendum. "He was surprised by the amount of pushback he got."

    Remarkable how the Tories seems to be populated by folk who have no ability to read the mood of their own party until they are smacked up side the head 15 times.

    Hammond seems to be living in his own little world in the Treasury, he’s gone completely native. If the PM has any sense (yes, I know) she’d replace him with Gove.
    Maybe Hammond has a better grasp of the figures and the realities of Britain’s economy than a PM who seems not to understand that her deal was defeated by the largest majority ever and that the EU has repeatedly made clear that a WA without a backstop is a non-starter.

    How many times does she have to be smacked on the side of the head before these two realities penetrate her bone-headed brain?
    Without for one moment leaping to the defence of May, one feels obliged to point out once again exactly how bone-headed the backstop itself is (assuming that one takes the reasons given for its existence at face value.)

    If we contemplate a scenario in which the UK leaves the EU without a Withdrawal Agreement expressly because the one on the table contained the backstop, then only two scenarios can follow. Either the Irish Government is forced to try to impose customs checkpoints all the way along the NI border - in which case, the backstop will have defeated itself by becoming the entire cause of the problem that it was meant to prevent. Or it point-blank refuses to impose such restrictions, in which case why on Earth was the backstop included in the WA in the first place?

    One is inevitably drawn to the conclusion that the backstop is positively counter-productive in terms of achieving its stated purpose, and that the Brexiteers may therefore be right when they suggest that it is really a device to compel the UK either to accept a permanent customs union by the back door, or to give Northern Ireland up.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 14,488
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    MTimT said:

    .

    It's his own side who have turned on him.
    Yes, I don’t understand that either.
    He ran a lot of attack ads that branded his Republican opponent as a white nationalist in 2017. So, the Republicans are happy to put the boot in, while the Democrats find him an embarrassment.
    It's evidence of something else, though, something we've discussed in the past. Given how easy it is to dig up youthful indiscretions a candidate, especially in the US, has to have none, or at least none where there's any evidence whatsoever of damn-foolery.
    Or even, as with Cameron and the pig business, 'sort of credible' allegations.

    Which tends to mean squeaky clean apparatchiks.
    And what’s going to happen a decade (or less) from now, when those seeking public office were routinely posting every university night out on social media for all to see?

    People born in 2001 are now eligible to stand for Parliament, sorry to make everyone feel old.
    Quite. Although Nick Clegg's admission of practicing free love, or something like it, didn't seem to affect him. I hope that we'll all return to a more tolerant 'you're allowed to be a bit daft when you're young' attitude.
    It would be good to think so, but sadly all the evidence is pointing the other way.

    Remember that last year we saw the spectacle of a nominee for the Supreme Court being questioned for days about how much he loved beer at college more than thirty years ago.

    Hopefully, as it becomes more obvious that pretty much everyone did silly things as students, society will become somewhat more tolerant of these things provided no-one got hurt at the time.

    Someone referred to Ed Balls and the Nazi uniform up thread, I wonder how that story would have gone down now, seven years later, with all that’s happened in the meantime. I suspect he’d not have get away with it as easily as he did back in 2012.
    To be fair, the Supreme Court brouhaha, wasn't so much about the guy's beer drinking but sexual predation. If he'd said that he'd been silly, and on reflection sometimes rather unpleasant, in his youth, and apologised to the woman he might well have got away with it.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 834
    Chris said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    MTimT said:

    TSE, I really don't see any normal life scenario where these figures improve for Trump. Those who leave him are not coming back, and every month he comes up with a new way to test his base's loyalty to him - be they farmers or steelworkers or coalworkers.

    Short of a spectacularly successful and necessary war, I don't see this turning around. Thank god.

    You may be underestimating the Democrats' ability to bollocks this thing up
    It’s true that there’s some evidence of that, but even the Governor of Virginia is likely to be gone well before next year...
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/02/northam-looked-ready-to-moonwalk-at-news-conference-before-his-wife-stopped-him.html

    But I suspect even Warren, who is very unlikely to get the nomination, would beat Trump.
    Was Northam the Klansman or the black and white minstrel in the photo?
    It might be a minority view, but I don’t get this.

    This was over 35 years ago when he was in his early 20s and mucking around with his mates.

    If his political opponents have evidence of unchanged racist attitudes that are affecting his politics today, then fine, but I don’t see why he should resign just because this photo has been discovered.
    It's his own side who have turned on him.
    Yes, I don’t understand that either.
    He ran a lot of attack ads that branded his Republican opponent as a white nationalist in 2017. So, the Republicans are happy to put the boot in, while the Democrats find him an embarrassment.
    It's evidence of something else, though, something we've discussed in thendiscretions a candidate, especially in the US, has to have none, or at least none where there's any evidence whatsoever of damn-foolery.
    Or even, as with Cameron and the pig business, 'sort of credible' allegations.

    Which tends to mean squeaky clean apparatchiks.
    And what’s going to happen a decade (or less) from now, when those seeking public office were routinely posting every university night out on social media for all to see?

    People born in 2001 are now eligible to stand for Parliament, sorry to make everyone feel old.
    Quite. Although Nick Clegg's admission of practicing free love, or something like it, didn't seem to affect him. ...
    Nor indeed did his arson conviction!
    A quick google says no such conviction.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 24,125
    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    In the same speech when May said she would stand down before the next election, she also said she would love to give it another go and (try to) expunge the stain of 2017. Having an election in a hurry is the only way she gets to live her dream.

    A highly relevant observation.

    I am convinced that calling a snap election is TM's backstop if she cannot get her deal through this parliament. There is massive personal upside for her if she wins it and her downside (losing) is negligible, since her other options (adopt Labour policy or give up on Brexit) lead to an ignominious exit from number 10 in very short order.

    Question is, will the backstop be needed? I think probably not, but this I am less sure about.
    Mechanically, how do you think she could call a general election?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 26,839
    notme2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    MTimT said:

    TSE, I really don't see any normal life scenario where these figures improve for Trump. Those who leave him are not coming back, and every month he comes up with a new way to test his base's loyalty to him - be they farmers or steelworkers or coalworkers.

    Short of a spectacularly successful and necessary war, I don't see this turning around. Thank god.

    You may be underestimating the Democrats' ability to bollocks this thing up
    It’s true that there’s some evidence of that, but even the Governor of Virginia is likely to be gone well before next year...
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/02/northam-looked-ready-to-moonwalk-at-news-conference-before-his-wife-stopped-him.html

    But I suspect even Warren, who is very unlikely to get the nomination, would beat Trump.
    Was Northam the Klansman or the black and white minstrel in the photo?
    It might be a minority view, but I don’t get this.

    This was over 35 years ago when he was in his early 20s and mucking around with his mates.

    If his political opponents have evidence of unchanged racist attitudes that are affecting his politics today, then fine, but I don’t see why he should resign just because this photo has been discovered.
    It's his own side who have turned on him.
    Yes, I don’t understand that either.
    He ran a lot of attack ads that branded his Republican opponent as a white nationalist in 2017. So, the Republicans are happy to put the boot in, while the Democrats find him an embarrassment.
    It's evidence of something else, though, something we've discussed in the past. Given how easy it is to dig up youthful indiscretions a candidate, especially in the US, has to have none, or at least none where there's any evidence whatsoever of damn-foolery.
    Or even, as with Cameron and the pig business, 'sort of credible' allegations.

    Which tends to mean squeaky clean apparatchiks.
    A lot depends on how it was dealt with, Ed Balls was not affected by his Nazi genital staring photos, because he acknowledged it and apologised.

    https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/ed-balls-s-not-embarrassed-by-nazi-pic-1.36772
    A lot has happened since then. Identity politics is now even stronger. Context is now no longer important.
    I think we are still more level-headed about such things than the USA.
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