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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump seems to be alienating an awful lot of voters

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    NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 707
    IanB2 said:

    May's WA is only the beginning of the trouble. Nightmare thread on passing WAIB.

    https://twitter.com/pauldalyesq/status/1091734003265224708

    The no dealers will see this as their final chance to force a crash out.

    The only realistic reaction from government is to be prepared to revoke if we can't leave on the terms of the deal that by that stage would have already been agreed by Parliament.
    Are we certain yet that revocation doesn’t need Parliamentary approval? It would surely be tested in the courts.

    I suppose if it was Government policy to revoke, Labour MPs would have cover to support it.
  • Options
    IanB2 said:

    brendan16 said:

    Good to see that the EU are continuing to behave with impeccable reasonableness.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-capitals-agree-to-visa-free-schengen-access-for-brits-post-brexit/

    I have grown quite fond of them.

    Errh, that isn't new information. That was announced ages ago including the introduction of a £7 fee. I guess it depends if you see the introduction of a fee as reasonable. Canadians don't need an ESTA for US and vice versa, that would seem the most reasonable approach re UK / EU travel.


    British travellers will have to pay €7 to visit the EU after Brexit, the European Commission has confirmed. From 2021, UK citizens will have to pay the fee every three years to pre-register for an electronic visa waiver, a system similar to the Esta scheme used by the US

    https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/uk-europe-travel-post-brexit-fee-eu-etias-visa-waiver-a8682931.html

    I do have to say it is most generous of the EU to confirm that UK citizens will have visa free access if they want to visit countries in the Schengen area for tourism/short holidays for up to 90 days. Such generousity they already extend for example to citizens of Nicaragua and Colombia! And lets face it I doubt the Spanish government could cope with visa applications from 10 million people a year - as Britain is on most figures their largest single source of tourists.

    Brits have visa free access for tourism to around 140 non EU member states - so its no big deal and no big concession! We would presumably reciprocate anyway if they did.

    You already have to pre register your details to fly to Spain anyway - for every flight you take there. So a 7 euro charge to grant you access to Schengen for 3 years again is hardly a big deal. Its less than the price of an allocated seat on a Ryanair flight - and two thirds of the price of a preallocated seat on British airways i.e. no big deal if you can afford a holiday in the first place! Ryanair requires most of the info you submit on USA esta application in terms of personal data now just so you can generate a boarding card.

    Lets not pretend concessions that are in place for Nicaraguans and Colombians are somehow 'being generous' to UK nationals. Spain's tourist industry would be in meltdown if Brits didn't go their for their two week annual summer hols.
    The real issue here is the position for Brits who wish to spend more than 90 days living in the EU
    The vast majority of Brits don’t though.

    I imagine they’d need to apply (in the long term) for a form of working or residency visa in the EU state in which they were living.

    If the EU continues to federalise, it might just be one.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,204
    Sean_F said:

    A couple of years ago, one Conservative student group had a party with a Jimmy Saville theme.

    Yes, I remember that. From the papers, I mean. As bad taste goes that gets a 'wow'. Typo in your post btw - the name is actually and appropriately SaVILE.

    Have you noticed how these days absolutely EVERYBODY claims that they always found him creepy?

    Making it even more inexplicable that he had the most watched show on TV for umpteen years and got knighted.
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Mechanically, how do you think she could call a general election?

    I'm thinking the 2/3 route. But I'm also wondering whether just the threat of it might be sufficient incentive for the DUP and most of the ERG to end up, at the death and under severe pressure, supporting the deal - and thus with the help of some 'rebel' Labour MPs, that it will squeak over the line.

    In which case, the parliamentary situation will remain highly unstable and there must be a good chance of a GE later in the year.

    So, all in all, I quite like the 2.6 on Betfair for an election in 2019.
    The DUP are not going to support the Deal with the backstop and indeed it is the fact they have promised to VONC the government and force a general election if the Deal with the backstop is passed which is making May think she may have to call a general election in a few months time if her Deal passes, which almost certainly would be due to Labour rebel votes with those same Labour rebels then backing a VONC in the government

    Can you produce any quote from the DUP saying they 'will' vonc the government and force an election

    TM and Downing Street have categorically denied the election story this morning and I doubt she would get it past the cabinet
    https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/dup-would-back-tories-in-confidence-vote-but-only-if-mays-brexit-deal-ditched-890182.html
    Nowhere does it say the DUP will no confidence the government and force an election
    It says the DUP will no longer support the government if the backstop remains in the Deal
    It does not say it will vote against in a vonc. Neither of us can say with any certainty what the DUP would do but putting Corbyn in no 10 is highly unlikely
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,122
    NeilVW said:

    IanB2 said:

    May's WA is only the beginning of the trouble. Nightmare thread on passing WAIB.

    https://twitter.com/pauldalyesq/status/1091734003265224708

    The no dealers will see this as their final chance to force a crash out.

    The only realistic reaction from government is to be prepared to revoke if we can't leave on the terms of the deal that by that stage would have already been agreed by Parliament.
    Are we certain yet that revocation doesn’t need Parliamentary approval? It would surely be tested in the courts.
    No, because the Supreme Court hasn't ruled on it.

    I'd say that prima facie it didn't, because it hasn't even been suggested that the argument related to invocation would also apply to revocation - the argument that revocation would remove rights conferred by Parliament, and that therefore Parliament would need to consent to revocation.
  • Options

    This is a great fancy dress costume, the twin towers burning.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-24835322

    And that is Amber's and Annie’s career as pols over.

    And I loved the comment attributed to the mealy-mouthed w@nker at the end: “Never seen such disgusting behaviour by anyone.”

    I am also interested who seeing that thought it was such a brilliant costume that they awarded them with the best costume of the night award....
    iT IS A BRILLIANT COSTUME. Nowhere did the rules say that it had to be in good taste!

    It's soo sad thatthese days people aren't allowed to do anything in case someone with a chip on their shoulder screams blue murder. Especially as it always seems to be the same sort of person complaining.

    Next you'll be tellg me Mary Poppins is racist because Julie Andrews blacks up as a sweep.
  • Options
    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Mechanically, how do you think she could call a general election?

    I'm thinking the 2/3 route. But I'm also wondering whether just the threat of it might be sufficient incentive for the DUP and most of the ERG to end up, at the death and under severe pressure, supporting the deal - and thus with the help of some 'rebel' Labour MPs, that it will squeak over the line.

    In which case, the parliamentary situation will remain highly unstable and there must be a good chance of a GE later in the year.

    So, all in all, I quite like the 2.6 on Betfair for an election in 2019.
    The DUP are not going to support the Deal with the backstop and indeed it is the fact they have promised to VONC the government and force a general election if the Deal with the backstop is passed which is making May think she may have to call a general election in a few months time if her Deal passes, which almost certainly would be due to Labour rebel votes with those same Labour rebels then backing a VONC in the government

    Can you produce any quote from the DUP saying they 'will' vonc the government and force an election

    TM and Downing Street have categorically denied the election story this morning and I doubt she would get it past the cabinet
    https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/dup-would-back-tories-in-confidence-vote-but-only-if-mays-brexit-deal-ditched-890182.html
    Nowhere does it say the DUP will no confidence the government and force an election
    It says the DUP will no longer support the government if the backstop remains in the Deal
    It does not say it will vote against in a vonc. Neither of us can say with any certainty what the DUP would do but putting Corbyn in no 10 is highly unlikely
    Don't be silly. Every thing that HYUFD writes is said with certainty.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Mechanically, how do you think she could call a general election?

    I'm thinking the 2/3 route. But I'm also wondering whether just the threat of it might be sufficient incentive for the DUP and most of the ERG to end up, at the death and under severe pressure, supporting the deal - and thus with the help of some 'rebel' Labour MPs, that it will squeak over the line.

    In which case, the parliamentary situation will remain highly unstable and there must be a good chance of a GE later in the year.

    So, all in all, I quite like the 2.6 on Betfair for an election in 2019.
    The DUP are not going to support the Deal with the backstop and indeed it is the fact they have promised to VONC the government and force a general election if the Deal with the backstop is passed which is making May think she may have to call a general election in a few months time if her Deal passes, which almost certainly would be due to Labour rebel votes with those same Labour rebels then backing a VONC in the government

    Can you produce any quote from the DUP saying they 'will' vonc the government and force an election

    TM and Downing Street have categorically denied the election story this morning and I doubt she would get it past the cabinet
    https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/dup-would-back-tories-in-confidence-vote-but-only-if-mays-brexit-deal-ditched-890182.html
    Nowhere does it say the DUP will no confidence the government and force an election
    It says the DUP will no longer support the government if the backstop remains in the Deal
    It does not say it will vote against in a vonc. Neither of us can say with any certainty what the DUP would do but putting Corbyn in no 10 is highly unlikely
    We can say with certainty the DUP will not allow the Deal to pass the Commons and into law as long as it contains the backstop, that means them doing anything to stop that, including backing a VONC and even supporting a Corbyn government and permanent CU and single market elements for the whole UK rather than just NI with the backstop
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    dots said:

    Off topic. Mikes header was gone too soon.

    Oh Mike. OGH. It’s not a shock poll. What makes anyone think its a shock poll? Does it not tie perfectly with other klaxons, like leadership satisfaction ratings or best PM? Or Labour whip melting in the commons as power ebbs away from the nebulous brexit handling.

    What gave Labour last GE result and kept them at high levels was the belief giving support to Labour would prevent / soften brexit. That bubble has burst. That’s the key bit.

    Simultaneously voters have a different measure of Corbyn and the crew around him. Another bubble has burst, and can’t be reversed.

    The Tories will now comfortably win the impending election with the same get Corbyn tactic that flopped last time. They could wallpaper the front of themselves so all you hear about their plans is some muffled battle for Britain sound bites. They can even include a dementia tax and still win.

    There is always lots of irony in politics. We are now at a point the Labour moderates sat behind Corbyn happy to vote for that GE when May calls it, because the comfortable working majority May will win spears Corbyn and Team Corbyn.

    Let’s layer the irony on shall we. IF brexit impasse continues, GE is number 10s preferred out, whilst best option for Team Corbyn now is some sort of second ref instead. But they cant. The People’s vote ship has been scuttled before it sailed. Team Corbyn have boxed themselves in with their own sequencing and vehement opposition to Mays deal. They have boxed themselves in to voting in commons for the fast approaching GE.

    🤣 A rolling around laughing and crying emoticon just doesn’t do it justice.

    No idea whether the Opinium poll is accurate - though it does contradict the Survation survey conducted over much the same time. However, the idea that the public would wish to spend 5 or 6 weeks debating Brexit and little else - and that they would not respond to the efforts of Corbyn - and others - to raise issues to which they can much more clearly relate is 'for the birds'. People were sick of Brexit in June 2017 - they are far more so now!
  • Options
    alex. said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Mechanically, how do you think she could call a general election?

    I'm thinking the 2/3 route. But I'm also wondering whether just the threat of it might be sufficient incentive for the DUP and most of the ERG to end up, at the death and under severe pressure, supporting the deal - and thus with the help of some 'rebel' Labour MPs, that it will squeak over the line.

    In which case, the parliamentary situation will remain highly unstable and there must be a good chance of a GE later in the year.

    So, all in all, I quite like the 2.6 on Betfair for an election in 2019.
    The DUP are not going to support the Deal with the backstop and indeed it is the fact they have promised to VONC the government and force a general election if the Deal with the backstop is passed which is making May think she may have to call a general election in a few months time if her Deal passes, which almost certainly would be due to Labour rebel votes with those same Labour rebels then backing a VONC in the government

    Can you produce any quote from the DUP saying they 'will' vonc the government and force an election

    TM and Downing Street have categorically denied the election story this morning and I doubt she would get it past the cabinet
    https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/dup-would-back-tories-in-confidence-vote-but-only-if-mays-brexit-deal-ditched-890182.html
    Nowhere does it say the DUP will no confidence the government and force an election
    It says the DUP will no longer support the government if the backstop remains in the Deal
    It does not say it will vote against in a vonc. Neither of us can say with any certainty what the DUP would do but putting Corbyn in no 10 is highly unlikely
    Don't be silly. Every thing that HYUFD writes is said with certainty.
    On that we agree completely. He is never wrong of course !!!!!
  • Options

    The correct attitude to student high jinks, fancy dress parties, thoughtlessness and antics is one of thankfulness.

    Most (all?) students do something stupid or careless or immature during the years at University. It is part of growing up.

    We’re just thankful we are lucky that our pasts are not trawled through in such fantastic detail by the professionally offended.

    This applies to Cameron and pigs, Balls and Nazi uniform, Clegg and cacti, US pols and pictures in stupid yearbooks.

    While I 100% agree I do believe that (if it was his choice) putting down something that stupid in a yearbook is another level of stupid above and beyond doing so as part of a drunken night of hijinks.

    Doing something in a night once is one thing but the yearbook is how you've chosen to represent yourself for posterity.
    Don’t be so daft.

    No-one normal is endlessly worrying about how they “represent themselves for posterity” in a piece of ephemera like a student yearbook.

    In fact, no-one normal is endlessly worrying about how the “represent themselves for posterity” full stop.

    Posterity is very forgiving, we’ll all be forgotten.
    I'm sorry but that's generally the point of a Yearbook. The point is (if you submit your own stuff yourself) about how you want to be remembered. More thought given to it normally than a random night.
  • Options
    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    alex. said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Mechanically, how do you think she could call a general election?

    I'm thinking the 2/3 route. But I'm also wondering whether just the threat of it might be sufficient incentive for the DUP and most of the ERG to end up, at the death and under severe pressure, supporting the deal - and thus with the help of some 'rebel' Labour MPs, that it will squeak over the line.

    In which case, the parliamentary situation will remain highly unstable and there must be a good chance of a GE later in the year.

    So, all in all, I quite like the 2.6 on Betfair for an election in 2019.
    The DUP are not going to support the Deal with the backstop and indeed it is the fact they have promised to VONC the government and force a general election if the Deal with the backstop is passed which is making May think she may have to call a general election in a few months time if her Deal passes, which almost certainly would be due to Labour rebel votes with those same Labour rebels then backing a VONC in the government

    Can you produce any quote from the DUP saying they 'will' vonc the government and force an election

    TM and Downing Street have categorically denied the election story this morning and I doubt she would get it past the cabinet
    https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/dup-would-back-tories-in-confidence-vote-but-only-if-mays-brexit-deal-ditched-890182.html
    Nowhere does it say the DUP will no confidence the government and force an election
    It says the DUP will no longer support the government if the backstop remains in the Deal
    It does not say it will vote against in a vonc. Neither of us can say with any certainty what the DUP would do but putting Corbyn in no 10 is highly unlikely
    Don't be silly. Every thing that HYUFD writes is said with certainty.
    On that we agree completely. He is never wrong of course !!!!!
    When the facts change...
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,280
    NeilVW said:

    IanB2 said:

    May's WA is only the beginning of the trouble. Nightmare thread on passing WAIB.

    https://twitter.com/pauldalyesq/status/1091734003265224708

    The no dealers will see this as their final chance to force a crash out.

    The only realistic reaction from government is to be prepared to revoke if we can't leave on the terms of the deal that by that stage would have already been agreed by Parliament.
    Are we certain yet that revocation doesn’t need Parliamentary approval? It would surely be tested in the courts.

    I suppose if it was Government policy to revoke, Labour MPs would have cover to support it.
    Exactly. Effectively revocation is in Mrs M's gift, and would sail through if government proposed it. Her problem remains that, despite all the holier vicar's daughter stuff, she remains more concerned about holding the Tory party together than holding our country together.
  • Options
    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    The correct attitude to student high jinks, fancy dress parties, thoughtlessness and antics is one of thankfulness.

    Most (all?) students do something stupid or careless or immature during the years at University. It is part of growing up.

    We’re just thankful we are lucky that our pasts are not trawled through in such fantastic detail by the professionally offended.

    This applies to Cameron and pigs, Balls and Nazi uniform, Clegg and cacti, US pols and pictures in stupid yearbooks.

    While I 100% agree I do believe that (if it was his choice) putting down something that stupid in a yearbook is another level of stupid above and beyond doing so as part of a drunken night of hijinks.

    Doing something in a night once is one thing but the yearbook is how you've chosen to represent yourself for posterity.
    Don’t be so daft.

    No-one normal is endlessly worrying about how they “represent themselves for posterity” in a piece of ephemera like a student yearbook.

    In fact, no-one normal is endlessly worrying about how the “represent themselves for posterity” full stop.

    Posterity is very forgiving, we’ll all be forgotten.
    I'm sorry but that's generally the point of a Yearbook. The point is (if you submit your own stuff yourself) about how you want to be remembered. More thought given to it normally than a random night.
    The problem is what other people write about you in your yearbook...
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,204

    It's a no brainer.

    :-))

    Ah I get it now. Not only a joke but a very good one too.

    Please ignore my initial po-faced response down the thread - what a klutz!
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Mechanically, how do you think she could call a general election?

    I'm thinking the 2/3 route. But I'm also wondering whether just the threat of it might be sufficient incentive for the DUP and most of the ERG to end up, at the death and under severe pressure, supporting the deal - and thus with the help of some 'rebel' Labour MPs, that it will squeak over the line.

    In which case, the parliamentary situation will remain highly unstable and there must be a good chance of a GE later in the year.

    So, all in all, I quite like the 2.6 on Betfair for an election in 2019.
    The DUP are not going to support the Deal with the backstop and indeed it is the fact they have promised to VONC the government and force a general election if the Deal with the backstop is passed which is making May think she may have to call a general election in a few months time if her Deal passes, which almost certainly would be due to Labour rebel votes with those same Labour rebels then backing a VONC in the government

    Can you produce any quote from the DUP saying they 'will' vonc the government and force an election

    TM and Downing Street have categorically denied the election story this morning and I doubt she would get it past the cabinet
    https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/dup-would-back-tories-in-confidence-vote-but-only-if-mays-brexit-deal-ditched-890182.html
    Nowhere does it say the DUP will no confidence the government and force an election
    It says the DUP will no longer support the government if the backstop remains in the Deal
    It does not say it will vote against in a vonc. Neither of us can say with any certainty what the DUP would do but putting Corbyn in no 10 is highly unlikely
    We can say with certainty the DUP will not allow the Deal to pass the Commons and into law as long as it contains the backstop, that means them doing anything to stop that, including backing a VONC and even supporting a Corbyn government and permanent CU and single market elements for the whole UK rather than just NI with the backstop
    Yes of course. You are always right
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,280
    alex. said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Mechanically, how do you think she could call a general election?

    I'm thinking the 2/3 route. But I'm also wondering whether just the threat of it might be sufficient incentive for the DUP and most of the ERG to end up, at the death and under severe pressure, supporting the deal - and thus with the help of some 'rebel' Labour MPs, that it will squeak over the line.

    In which case, the parliamentary situation will remain highly unstable and there must be a good chance of a GE later in the year.

    So, all in all, I quite like the 2.6 on Betfair for an election in 2019.
    The DUP are not going to support the Deal with the backstop and indeed it is the fact they have promised to VONC the government and force a general election if the Deal with the backstop is passed which is making May think she may have to call a general election in a few months time if her Deal passes, which almost certainly would be due to Labour rebel votes with those same Labour rebels then backing a VONC in the government

    Can you produce any quote from the DUP saying they 'will' vonc the government and force an election

    TM and Downing Street have categorically denied the election story this morning and I doubt she would get it past the cabinet
    https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/dup-would-back-tories-in-confidence-vote-but-only-if-mays-brexit-deal-ditched-890182.html
    Nowhere does it say the DUP will no confidence the government and force an election
    It says the DUP will no longer support the government if the backstop remains in the Deal
    It does not say it will vote against in a vonc. Neither of us can say with any certainty what the DUP would do but putting Corbyn in no 10 is highly unlikely
    Don't be silly. Every thing that HYUFD writes is said with certainty.
    In a parallel universe everything HY says is certain and Boris is already World King.
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,998

    Dura_Ace said:

    X-Trail is going to remain being produced in Japan (i.e. they aren't shifting to another EU country), and next-gen Qashqai will be in Sunderland.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47107561

    That's fitting as the Qashqai is the car for people who have completely given up on life.
    Who actually buys a Nissan?

    Cars like the Duke, Lead and Qashqai are absolutely dire. Like a Japanese British Leyland.
    Quite right. F*ck em! They only produce crap and we never wanted their business anyway.
    I’m not interested in the Brexit politics of Nissan. I just don’t understand why anyone would buy one. Period.

    Minis, Jaguars, and Rangerovers I understand.
    All junk.

    Nissan did make two of the greatest engines of the past 20 years: the SR20 and RB26 but they have lost their way recently.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,204
    IanB2 said:

    Exactly. Effectively revocation is in Mrs M's gift, and would sail through if government proposed it. Her problem remains that, despite all the holier vicar's daughter stuff, she remains more concerned about holding the Tory party together than holding our country together.

    I'm not sure that cancelling Brexit would hold the country together!
  • Options
    EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    Regarding youthful antics, I went to a '1960s' fancy dress party about 25 years ago (it was good - might go to another one at some point) and there was a girl there who came as Jackie Kennedy post assassination, pink Chanel suit, fake bloodstains, the works. It split opinion IIRC. Many people were offended whereas some loved it.

    If that girl was now Stella Creasy, would she (and should she) be in trouble?

    I think on balance not - and no - but I'm sure not everybody would agree.

    It’s very likely that different standards would apply to a Labour MP next to a Conservative MP.

    The Labour MP would be excused a youthful indiscretion because their heart is in the right place.

    The Conservative MP would be condemned for it for the rest of their life and it’d be argued it was evidence of their true feelings.
    That is manifestly not the case for the corresponding parties in the US.

    Political parties, or fancy dress parties?!
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,280
    edited February 2019
    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    Exactly. Effectively revocation is in Mrs M's gift, and would sail through if government proposed it. Her problem remains that, despite all the holier vicar's daughter stuff, she remains more concerned about holding the Tory party together than holding our country together.

    I'm not sure that cancelling Brexit would hold the country together!
    Neither would heading for no deal, which is where we would be if the ERG play silly buggers over the necessary legislation. And, unlike remaining, no deal crash out has some very immediate real world consequences.

    The government is already planning for food shortages, medicine shortages, and evacuating the Queen because London will be too unsafe. What more evidence do you need?
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,296
    edited February 2019
    justin124 said:

    dots said:

    Off topic. Mikes header was gone too soon.

    Oh Mike. OGH. It’s not a shock poll. What makes anyone think its a shock poll? Does it not tie perfectly with other klaxons, like leadership satisfaction ratings or best PM? Or Labour whip melting in the commons as power ebbs away from the nebulous brexit handling.

    What gave Labour last GE result and kept them at high levels was the belief giving support to Labour would prevent / soften brexit. That bubble has burst. That’s the key bit.

    Simultaneously voters have a different measure of Corbyn and the crew around him. Another bubble has burst, and can’t be reversed.

    The Tories will now comfortably win the impending election with the same get Corbyn tactic that flopped last time. They could wallpaper the front of themselves so all you hear about their plans is some muffled battle for Britain sound bites. They can even include a dementia tax and still win.

    There is always lots of irony in politics. We are now at a point the Labour moderates sat behind Corbyn happy to vote for that GE when May calls it, because the comfortable working majority May will win spears Corbyn and Team Corbyn.

    Let’s layer the irony on shall we. IF brexit impasse continues, GE is number 10s preferred out, whilst best option for Team Corbyn now is some sort of second ref instead. But they cant. The People’s vote ship has been scuttled before it sailed. Team Corbyn have boxed themselves in with their own sequencing and vehement opposition to Mays deal. They have boxed themselves in to voting in commons for the fast approaching GE.

    🤣 A rolling around laughing and crying emoticon just doesn’t do it justice.

    No idea whether the Opinium poll is accurate - though it does contradict the Survation survey conducted over much the same time. However, the idea that the public would wish to spend 5 or 6 weeks debating Brexit and little else - and that they would not respond to the efforts of Corbyn - and others - to raise issues to which they can much more clearly relate is 'for the birds'. People were sick of Brexit in June 2017 - they are far more so now!
    And of course an election just now would be a disaster in Scotland for labour following yesterdays report that it is haemorrhaging members, in one area by 40%
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    kinabalu said:

    Have you noticed how these days absolutely EVERYBODY claims that they always found him creepy?

    Making it even more inexplicable that he had the most watched show on TV for umpteen years and got knighted.

    Creepy is maybe not the right word. He was certainly considered odd or eccentric, and there were salacious rumours about him, but that's true for a lot of celebs. It's always worth bearing in mind that of the many people who claim "they always knew" very few of them tried to do anything about it. I don't think that more than a handful of people thought that Savile was one of Britain's most prolific sexual offenders.
  • Options

    notme2 said:

    X-Trail is going to remain being produced in Japan (i.e. they aren't shifting to another EU country), and next-gen Qashqai will be in Sunderland.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47107561

    Whether you are for brexit, uncertainty increases risk. We might have a case of everything is casued by Brexit (or Trump if you live in america), rather than massive turmoil in the car industry with the discrediting of diesel.

    Just got myself a new diesel qashqui, a bit like driving a lumpy hairdryer. Not that impressed, but a 60mpg average on the 2500 mils have done so far is pleasing.
    If they had announced they were pulling the Qashqai deal that would have been huge. It is the #1 seller in its class in Europe and unlike the X-Trail is a) already based here and b) isn't primarily a diesel.
    What's the diesel angle with x-trails? If Europeans want to buy petrol ones now they'll make petrol ones, no? They're all petrol in Japan. Or I hope they are, because that's what I put in my rental one right before I took it back to the shop.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,204
    justin124 said:

    No idea whether the Opinium poll is accurate - though it does contradict the Survation survey conducted over much the same time. However, the idea that the public would wish to spend 5 or 6 weeks debating Brexit and little else - and that they would not respond to the efforts of Corbyn - and others - to raise issues to which they can much more clearly relate is 'for the birds'. People were sick of Brexit in June 2017 - they are far more so now!

    I agree. The dominant theme of the election would be whether the country really is up for a genuinely left wing government. Could go either way. I would be rooting for a Labour win but betting on the opposite.
  • Options
    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited February 2019
    "The real issue here is the position for Brits who wish to spend more than 90 days living in the EU"

    And that is the balance many people considered if they voted leave - is freedom of movement worth the advantages (I might be one of the 5 per cent or less of Brits who have moved to live permanently in another EU member state) over the disadvantages (in terms of the impact on me and my kids and grandkids lives in terms of wages, pressures on housing and services in my local area).

    GDP growth - albeit rarely presented by anyone or a per capita basis - is rather macro along with the inevitable no one voted to be worse off. There are more things to having a happy life than 'money' and 'GDP'.

    It perhaps speaks volumes that despite being in the EU/EEC for nearly fifty years only 1.5 million Brits at present exercise their FOM rights to move to an EU member state and live there and work there for more than 90 days. In otherwords 97 percent aren't!

    I accept its a loss of 'human rights' to a large proportion of kids of the well off middle classes. But most Brits won't miss it as they never took advantage of it and never will - particularly those on lower earnings. As long as they can take a 2 week holiday to the Med visa free - which they will be able to - they have little interest in freedom of movement in its true sense (working and permanent residency).

    So they decided the benefits from FOM did not outweigh the negatives.


  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,123

    Vince Cable says he’s been in discussions for months with large groups of Labour MPs (and some Conservatives) about breaking away to form a new third party, although he’s vague about how it would actually work.

    https://order-order.com/2019/02/03/vince-cable-discussing-new-third-party-labour-mps/

    That must really motivate the troops, knowing your leader is off trying to kill your party and form a new one.....
  • Options
    glw said:

    kinabalu said:

    Have you noticed how these days absolutely EVERYBODY claims that they always found him creepy?

    Making it even more inexplicable that he had the most watched show on TV for umpteen years and got knighted.

    Creepy is maybe not the right word. He was certainly considered odd or eccentric, and there were salacious rumours about him, but that's true for a lot of celebs. It's always worth bearing in mind that of the many people who claim "they always knew" very few of them tried to do anything about it. I don't think that more than a handful of people thought that Savile was one of Britain's most prolific sexual offenders.
    Whether something is creepy or not is a question of context. Life is a series of dots, and you have to connect them a certain way. As a public figure, children's entertainer etc, Savile benefitted from people joining them one way - but now, in hindsight, they connect them another.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Boris Johnson dumps Brexit parliamentary paperwork in fuel station bin
    EXCLUSIVE: The king of gaffes dumped 70 pages of work into a petrol station trash can - including handwritten memos on the economy

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-dumps-brexit-parliamentary-13944587

    Man throws non confidential paper in bin

    The mirror really are scraping the barrel
  • Options

    notme2 said:

    X-Trail is going to remain being produced in Japan (i.e. they aren't shifting to another EU country), and next-gen Qashqai will be in Sunderland.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47107561

    Whether you are for brexit, uncertainty increases risk. We might have a case of everything is casued by Brexit (or Trump if you live in america), rather than massive turmoil in the car industry with the discrediting of diesel.

    Just got myself a new diesel qashqui, a bit like driving a lumpy hairdryer. Not that impressed, but a 60mpg average on the 2500 mils have done so far is pleasing.
    If they had announced they were pulling the Qashqai deal that would have been huge. It is the #1 seller in its class in Europe and unlike the X-Trail is a) already based here and b) isn't primarily a diesel.
    What's the diesel angle with x-trails? If Europeans want to buy petrol ones now they'll make petrol ones, no? They're all petrol in Japan. Or I hope they are, because that's what I put in my rental one right before I took it back to the shop.
    It is not economic for the Japanese to provide their petrol engines from Japan

    The truth of this story is that Nissan sales of diesels is collapsing and as they already build them in Japan they can export direct to the EU now the 10% tariff has gone, following their free trade deal last week

    As far as future investment is concerned of course brexit needs a deal, and there is one ready if the politicians could just grow up

  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,204
    MaxPB said:

    Well that's because we are the party of free enterprise.

    Mmm. Very convenient.

    What is the poor socialist who has got rich because that is what happens to intelligent well-connected people in capitalist societies supposed to do?
  • Options
    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    notme2 said:

    X-Trail is going to remain being produced in Japan (i.e. they aren't shifting to another EU country), and next-gen Qashqai will be in Sunderland.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47107561

    Whether you are for brexit, uncertainty increases risk. We might have a case of everything is casued by Brexit (or Trump if you live in america), rather than massive turmoil in the car industry with the discrediting of diesel.

    Just got myself a new diesel qashqui, a bit like driving a lumpy hairdryer. Not that impressed, but a 60mpg average on the 2500 mils have done so far is pleasing.
    If they had announced they were pulling the Qashqai deal that would have been huge. It is the #1 seller in its class in Europe and unlike the X-Trail is a) already based here and b) isn't primarily a diesel.
    What's the diesel angle with x-trails? If Europeans want to buy petrol ones now they'll make petrol ones, no? They're all petrol in Japan. Or I hope they are, because that's what I put in my rental one right before I took it back to the shop.
    It is not economic for the Japanese to provide their petrol engines from Japan

    The truth of this story is that Nissan sales of diesels is collapsing and as they already build them in Japan they can export direct to the EU now the 10% tariff has gone, following their free trade deal last week

    As far as future investment is concerned of course brexit needs a deal, and there is one ready if the politicians could just grow up

    Probably a saving grace.. I think the X trail is an awful car.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    https://twitter.com/alfonslopeztena/status/1091315062592159744?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=http://vote-2012.proboards.com/posts/recent

    I thought this was interesting, does this seem a fair assessment?

    Maybe with some arguing option D does exist with technology or the EU not being stupid etc.

    Option 4 - Isles Custom Union with checks between RoI and EU is also a feasible solution.

    (History is an issue, of course)

    Option 5. No backstop and then apply the WTO security exemption while we work up a permanent solution.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Mechanically, how do you think she could call a general election?

    I'm thinking the 2/3 route. But I'm also wondering whether just the threat of it might be sufficient incentive for the DUP and most of the ERG to end up, at the death and under severe pressure, supporting the deal - and thus with the help of some 'rebel' Labour MPs, that it will squeak over the line.

    In which case, the parliamentary situation will remain highly unstable and there must be a good chance of a GE later in the year.

    So, all in all, I quite like the 2.6 on Betfair for an election in 2019.
    The DUP are not going to support the Deal with the backstop and indeed it is the fact they have promised to VONC the government and force a general election if the Deal with the backstop is passed which is making May think she may have to call a general election in a few months time if her Deal passes, which almost certainly would be due to Labour rebel votes with those same Labour rebels then backing a VONC in the government

    Can you produce any quote from the DUP saying they 'will' vonc the government and force an election

    TM and Downing Street have categorically denied the election story this morning and I doubt she would get it past the cabinet
    https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/dup-would-back-tories-in-confidence-vote-but-only-if-mays-brexit-deal-ditched-890182.html
    Nowhere does it say the DUP will no confidence the government and force an election
    It says the DUP will no longer support the government if the backstop remains in the Deal
    It does not say it will vote against in a vonc. Neither of us can say with any certainty what the DUP would do but putting Corbyn in no 10 is highly unlikely
    We can say with certainty the DUP will not allow the Deal to pass the Commons and into law as long as it contains the backstop, that means them doing anything to stop that, including backing a VONC and even supporting a Corbyn government and permanent CU and single market elements for the whole UK rather than just NI with the backstop
    Yes of course. You are always right
    I am right that the DUP have made adamantly clear they will not allow a Deal with the EU with a backstop to pass into law, in order to stop that anything is on the table if it looks possible the Deal will become law
  • Options
    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    It’s very likely that different standards would apply to a Labour MP next to a Conservative MP.

    The Labour MP would be excused a youthful indiscretion because their heart is in the right place.

    The Conservative MP would be condemned for it for the rest of their life and it’d be argued it was evidence of their true feelings.

    A not totally unfair comment.

    But it does work both ways.

    Conservative MPs can do things like making tons of money, owning more than one house, sending their kids to private schools, just generally have themselves a high old time in this capitalist world of ours, without being called a 'hypocrite'.
    Well that's because we are the party of free enterprise.
    Are you going to expose the farmers to the free market post-Brexit then?
  • Options
    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Rees Mogg just on the World At One. He was saying that Just In Time Delivery is possible from outside the EU. I think he is technically correct on that - though it is misleading because there is a big difference between something being possible as an ad hoc agreement and being a right under a legally enforcable framework. It also leaves out the tariffs.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,601
    edited February 2019

    glw said:

    kinabalu said:

    Have you noticed how these days absolutely EVERYBODY claims that they always found him creepy?

    Making it even more inexplicable that he had the most watched show on TV for umpteen years and got knighted.

    Creepy is maybe not the right word. He was certainly considered odd or eccentric, and there were salacious rumours about him, but that's true for a lot of celebs. It's always worth bearing in mind that of the many people who claim "they always knew" very few of them tried to do anything about it. I don't think that more than a handful of people thought that Savile was one of Britain's most prolific sexual offenders.
    Whether something is creepy or not is a question of context. Life is a series of dots, and you have to connect them a certain way. As a public figure, children's entertainer etc, Savile benefitted from people joining them one way - but now, in hindsight, they connect them another.
    When people are forced to realise they have been fooled, they do tend to re-evaluate their experiences.
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Mechanically, how do you think she could call a general election?

    I'm thinking the 2/3 route. But I'm also wondering whether just the threat of it might be sufficient incentive for the DUP and most .

    In which case, the parliamentary situation will remain highly unstable and there must be a good chance of a GE later in the year.

    So, all in all, I quite like the 2.6 on Betfair for an election in 2019.
    The DUP are not going to support the Deal with the backstop and indeed it is the fact they have promised to VONC the government and force a general election if the Deal with the backstop is passed which is making May think she may have to call a general election in a few months time if her Deal passes, which almost certainly would be due to Labour rebel votes with those same Labour rebels then backing a VONC in the government

    Can you produce any quote from the DUP saying they 'will' vonc the government and force an election

    TM and Downing Street have categorically denied the election story this morning and I doubt she would get it past the cabinet
    https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/dup-would-back-tories-in-confidence-vote-but-only-if-mays-brexit-deal-ditched-890182.html
    Nowhere does it say the DUP will no confidence the government and force an election
    It says the DUP will no longer support the government if the backstop remains in the Deal
    It does not say it will vote against in a vonc. Neither of us can say with any certainty what the DUP would do but putting Corbyn in no 10 is highly unlikely
    We can say with certainty the DUP will not allow the Deal to pass the Commons and into law as long as it contains the backstop, that means them doing anything to stop that, including backing a VONC and even supporting a Corbyn government and permanent CU and single market elements for the whole UK rather than just NI with the backstop
    Yes of course. You are always right
    I am right that the DUP have made adamantly clear they will not allow a Deal with the EU with a backstop to pass into law, in order to stop that anything is on the table if it looks possible the Deal will become law
    We will see - you may be right but you could be wrong in the end
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,204
    IanB2 said:

    The 'one job' government I floated here months ago. But the problem is Corbyn; the other parties would never make him PM even to do just the one job.

    I can't see it either. One would need the Grand Unity Coalition under, say, Yvette. I would luv it (I have YC as next PM at 600/1) but TBF, whether under her or not, the GUC seems to be morphing into something with the look and feel of unicorn.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,601

    notme2 said:

    X-Trail is going to remain being produced in Japan (i.e. they aren't shifting to another EU country), and next-gen Qashqai will be in Sunderland.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47107561

    Whether you are for brexit, uncertainty increases risk. We might have a case of everything is casued by Brexit (or Trump if you live in america), rather than massive turmoil in the car industry with the discrediting of diesel.

    Just got myself a new diesel qashqui, a bit like driving a lumpy hairdryer. Not that impressed, but a 60mpg average on the 2500 mils have done so far is pleasing.
    If they had announced they were pulling the Qashqai deal that would have been huge. It is the #1 seller in its class in Europe and unlike the X-Trail is a) already based here and b) isn't primarily a diesel.
    What's the diesel angle with x-trails? If Europeans want to buy petrol ones now they'll make petrol ones, no? They're all petrol in Japan. Or I hope they are, because that's what I put in my rental one right before I took it back to the shop.
    It is not economic for the Japanese to provide their petrol engines from Japan

    The truth of this story is that Nissan sales of diesels is collapsing and as they already build them in Japan they can export direct to the EU now the 10% tariff has gone, their free trade deal last week

    As far as future investment is concerned of course brexit needs a deal, and there is one ready if the politicians could just grow up

    In all the reporting on this, it talks about the next generation X-Trail.
    Is that already being built in Japan, as that’s not at all clear ?

  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,601

    Rees Mogg just on the World At One. He was saying that Just In Time Delivery is possible from outside the EU. I think he is technically correct on that - though it is misleading because there is a big difference between something being possible as an ad hoc agreement and being a right under a legally enforcable framework. It also leaves out the tariffs.

    With two months’ planning ?

  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,060
    Charles said:

    https://twitter.com/alfonslopeztena/status/1091315062592159744?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=http://vote-2012.proboards.com/posts/recent

    I thought this was interesting, does this seem a fair assessment?

    Maybe with some arguing option D does exist with technology or the EU not being stupid etc.

    Option 4 - Isles Custom Union with checks between RoI and EU is also a feasible solution.

    (History is an issue, of course)

    Option 5. No backstop and then apply the WTO security exemption while we work up a permanent solution.
    These are already covered under "totally impossible, magical thinking, unicorns".
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    It’s very likely that different standards would apply to a Labour MP next to a Conservative MP.

    The Labour MP would be excused a youthful indiscretion because their heart is in the right place.

    The Conservative MP would be condemned for it for the rest of their life and it’d be argued it was evidence of their true feelings.

    A not totally unfair comment.

    But it does work both ways.

    Conservative MPs can do things like making tons of money, owning more than one house, sending their kids to private schools, just generally have themselves a high old time in this capitalist world of ours, without being called a 'hypocrite'.
    Well that's because we are the party of free enterprise.
    Are you going to expose the farmers to the free market post-Brexit then?
    I hope so.
  • Options
    NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 707

    Vince Cable says he’s been in discussions for months with large groups of Labour MPs (and some Conservatives) about breaking away to form a new third party, although he’s vague about how it would actually work.

    https://order-order.com/2019/02/03/vince-cable-discussing-new-third-party-labour-mps/

    That must really motivate the troops, knowing your leader is off trying to kill your party and form a new one.....
    Speaking on Sophie Ridge this morning, Cable denied his party would be “subsumed” into any new venture, but was open to working with it in other ways.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited February 2019

    notme2 said:

    X-Trail is going to remain being produced in Japan (i.e. they aren't shifting to another EU country), and next-gen Qashqai will be in Sunderland.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47107561

    Whether you are for brexit, uncertainty increases risk. We might have a case of everything is casued by Brexit (or Trump if you live in america), rather than massive turmoil in the car industry with the discrediting of diesel.

    Just got myself a new diesel qashqui, a bit like driving a lumpy hairdryer. Not that impressed, but a 60mpg average on the 2500 mils have done so far is pleasing.
    If they had announced they were pulling the Qashqai deal that would have been huge. It is the #1 seller in its class in Europe and unlike the X-Trail is a) already based here and b) isn't primarily a diesel.
    What's the diesel angle with x-trails? If Europeans want to buy petrol ones now they'll make petrol ones, no? They're all petrol in Japan. Or I hope they are, because that's what I put in my rental one right before I took it back to the shop.
    They aren't all petrol in Japan at all. They are primarily a diesel, with I believe only one SKU in the range being petrol. And in Europe, they are exclusively a diesel.

    European models went on sale in July 2014, with the only engine available being a Renault sourced 1.6 dCi R9M diesel engine with CVT or 6-speed Manual.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nissan_X-Trail#Third_generation_(T32;_2013–present)

    And so for the European market, it would require a redesign and still have to ship the petrol engines from Japan.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,601
    alex. said:

    The correct attitude to student high jinks, fancy dress parties, thoughtlessness and antics is one of thankfulness.

    Most (all?) students do something stupid or careless or immature during the years at University. It is part of growing up.

    We’re just thankful we are lucky that our pasts are not trawled through in such fantastic detail by the professionally offended.

    This applies to Cameron and pigs, Balls and Nazi uniform, Clegg and cacti, US pols and pictures in stupid yearbooks.

    While I 100% agree I do believe that (if it was his choice) putting down something that stupid in a yearbook is another level of stupid above and beyond doing so as part of a drunken night of hijinks.

    Doing something in a night once is one thing but the yearbook is how you've chosen to represent yourself for posterity.
    Don’t be so daft.

    No-one normal is endlessly worrying about how they “represent themselves for posterity” in a piece of ephemera like a student yearbook.

    In fact, no-one normal is endlessly worrying about how the “represent themselves for posterity” full stop.

    Posterity is very forgiving, we’ll all be forgotten.
    I'm sorry but that's generally the point of a Yearbook. The point is (if you submit your own stuff yourself) about how you want to be remembered. More thought given to it normally than a random night.
    The problem is what other people write about you in your yearbook...
    I think if someone else printed a KKK photo on the your own yearbook page, you might just notice it at the time, and have some recall about it even three decades later. Unless it was something that didn’t bother you at all.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,280
    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    The 'one job' government I floated here months ago. But the problem is Corbyn; the other parties would never make him PM even to do just the one job.

    I can't see it either. One would need the Grand Unity Coalition under, say, Yvette. I would luv it (I have YC as next PM at 600/1) but TBF, whether under her or not, the GUC seems to be morphing into something with the look and feel of unicorn.
    The big issue is that Labour thinks it has done well heretofore by sheltering behind its own unicorn 'jobs first' Brexit and has been wholly unprepared for the inexorable approach of decision day.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited February 2019
    Nigelb said:

    notme2 said:

    X-Trail is going to remain being produced in Japan (i.e. they aren't shifting to another EU country), and next-gen Qashqai will be in Sunderland.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47107561

    Whether you are for brexit, uncertainty increases risk. We might have a case of everything is casued by Brexit (or Trump if you live in america), rather than massive turmoil in the car industry with the discrediting of diesel.

    Just got myself a new diesel qashqui, a bit like driving a lumpy hairdryer. Not that impressed, but a 60mpg average on the 2500 mils have done so far is pleasing.
    If they had announced they were pulling the Qashqai deal that would have been huge. It is the #1 seller in its class in Europe and unlike the X-Trail is a) already based here and b) isn't primarily a diesel.
    What's the diesel angle with x-trails? If Europeans want to buy petrol ones now they'll make petrol ones, no? They're all petrol in Japan. Or I hope they are, because that's what I put in my rental one right before I took it back to the shop.
    It is not economic for the Japanese to provide their petrol engines from Japan

    The truth of this story is that Nissan sales of diesels is collapsing and as they already build them in Japan they can export direct to the EU now the 10% tariff has gone, their free trade deal last week

    As far as future investment is concerned of course brexit needs a deal, and there is one ready if the politicians could just grow up

    In all the reporting on this, it talks about the next generation X-Trail.
    Is that already being built in Japan, as that’s not at all clear ?

    When they announced this, that is not what they said. They said next-gen Qashqai and moving production of the european version of the X-Trail to Sunderland. They were talking about only a few 100 extra jobs for the X-Trail, the Qashqai was the big part of the announcement as it is the number 1 seller in its class across Europe.

    If they change their decision on the Qashqai that is 1000s and 1000s of jobs, but in the letter today they said they are still committed to the original plans re Qashqai.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,280
    NeilVW said:

    Vince Cable says he’s been in discussions for months with large groups of Labour MPs (and some Conservatives) about breaking away to form a new third party, although he’s vague about how it would actually work.

    https://order-order.com/2019/02/03/vince-cable-discussing-new-third-party-labour-mps/

    That must really motivate the troops, knowing your leader is off trying to kill your party and form a new one.....
    Speaking on Sophie Ridge this morning, Cable denied his party would be “subsumed” into any new venture, but was open to working with it in other ways.
    I wonder what percentage probability PB'ers would assign to the prospect that we truly are on the eve of the shattering of the toxic Labour-Tory political duopoly?
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    dots said:

    Off topic. Mikes header was gone too soon.

    Oh Mike. OGH. It’s not a shock poll. What makes anyone think its a shock poll? Does it not tie perfectly with other klaxons, like leadership satisfaction ratings or best PM? Or Labour whip melting in the commons as power ebbs away from the nebulous brexit handling.

    What gave Labour last GE result and kept them at high levels was the belief giving support to Labour would prevent / soften brexit. That bubble has burst. That’s the key bit.

    Simultaneously voters have a different measure of Corbyn and the crew around him. Another bubble has burst, and can’t be reversed.

    The Tories will now comfortably win the impending election with the same get Corbyn tactic that flopped last time. They could wallpaper the front of themselves so all you hear about their plans is some muffled battle for Britain sound bites. They can even include a dementia tax and still win.

    There is always lots of irony in politics. We are now at a point the Labour moderates sat behind Corbyn happy to vote for that GE when May calls it, because the comfortable working majority May will win spears Corbyn and Team Corbyn.

    Let’s layer the irony on shall we. IF brexit impasse continues, GE is number 10s preferred out, whilst best option for Team Corbyn now is some sort of second ref instead. But they cant. The People’s vote ship has been scuttled before it sailed. Team Corbyn have boxed themselves in with their own sequencing and vehement opposition to Mays deal. They have boxed themselves in to voting in commons for the fast approaching GE.

    🤣 A rolling around laughing and crying emoticon just doesn’t do it justice.

    No idea whether the Opinium poll is accurate - though it does contradict the Survation survey conducted over much the same time. However, the idea that the public would wish to spend 5 or 6 weeks debating Brexit and little else - and that they would not respond to the efforts of Corbyn - and others - to raise issues to which they can much more clearly relate is 'for the birds'. People were sick of Brexit in June 2017 - they are far more so now!
    And of course an election just now would be a disaster in Scotland for labour following yesterdays report that it is haemorrhaging members, in one area by 40%
    I wonder what has been happening to SNP membership lately! If membership levels were key , we would have far fewer Tory MPs across the UK as a whole.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,990

    Vince Cable says he’s been in discussions for months with large groups of Labour MPs (and some Conservatives) about breaking away to form a new third party, although he’s vague about how it would actually work.

    https://order-order.com/2019/02/03/vince-cable-discussing-new-third-party-labour-mps/

    That must really motivate the troops, knowing your leader is off trying to kill your party and form a new one.....
    Been there, done that. Worked OK until Clegg and the likes of Laws got involved at the top. Incidentally, what's Danny Alexander doing? Vanished without trace since that awful night in 2015.
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215
    IanB2 said:

    NeilVW said:

    Vince Cable says he’s been in discussions for months with large groups of Labour MPs (and some Conservatives) about breaking away to form a new third party, although he’s vague about how it would actually work.

    https://order-order.com/2019/02/03/vince-cable-discussing-new-third-party-labour-mps/

    That must really motivate the troops, knowing your leader is off trying to kill your party and form a new one.....
    Speaking on Sophie Ridge this morning, Cable denied his party would be “subsumed” into any new venture, but was open to working with it in other ways.
    I wonder what percentage probability PB'ers would assign to the prospect that we truly are on the eve of the shattering of the toxic Labour-Tory political duopoly?
    10%.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,204

    This is a great fancy dress costume, the twin towers burning.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-24835322

    And that is Amber's and Annie’s career as pols over.

    And I loved the comment attributed to the mealy-mouthed w@nker at the end: “Never seen such disgusting behaviour by anyone.”

    It's 'where to draw the line' with this stuff, isn't it. Which is another way of saying each to his own. Unless the law is broken, I guess. Remember the Grenfell bonfire night incident? That ended up a police matter IIRC.

    Interesting question for me: Is there a valid trade-off between offensiveness and quality? - i.e. the more hilarious or creative something is, should that 'buy' a greater licence to offend?

    For example, what if someone makes a dazzlingly inventive and laugh-out-loud derogatory comment about Welsh people?

    Do they get a pass because it was funny?
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    IanB2 said:

    NeilVW said:

    Vince Cable says he’s been in discussions for months with large groups of Labour MPs (and some Conservatives) about breaking away to form a new third party, although he’s vague about how it would actually work.

    https://order-order.com/2019/02/03/vince-cable-discussing-new-third-party-labour-mps/

    That must really motivate the troops, knowing your leader is off trying to kill your party and form a new one.....
    Speaking on Sophie Ridge this morning, Cable denied his party would be “subsumed” into any new venture, but was open to working with it in other ways.
    I wonder what percentage probability PB'ers would assign to the prospect that we truly are on the eve of the shattering of the toxic Labour-Tory political duopoly?
    0.000000000000000000001% ?
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    NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 707

    Vince Cable says he’s been in discussions for months with large groups of Labour MPs (and some Conservatives) about breaking away to form a new third party, although he’s vague about how it would actually work.

    https://order-order.com/2019/02/03/vince-cable-discussing-new-third-party-labour-mps/

    That must really motivate the troops, knowing your leader is off trying to kill your party and form a new one.....
    Been there, done that. Worked OK until Clegg and the likes of Laws got involved at the top. Incidentally, what's Danny Alexander doing? Vanished without trace since that awful night in 2015.
    According to Wiki he’s doing all right for himself:

    He is currently serving as vice president and corporate secretary at the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.[2][3]

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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Corbyn speaking in Glasgow yesterday -
    '“The SNP government has not just passed on Tory austerity, it has quadrupled it for local councils. And this week’s budget will mean another £230m in cuts that will hit local services the people of Scotland rely on.

    “There is a clear choice between more austerity or a Labour government that will put an end to austerity and build a country for the many, not the few.'
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    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    kinabalu said:



    It's 'where to draw the line' with this stuff, isn't it. Which is another way of saying each to his own. Unless the law is broken, I guess. Remember the Grenfell bonfire night incident? That ended up a police matter IIRC.

    Interesting question for me: Is there a valid trade-off between offensiveness and quality? - i.e. the more hilarious or creative something is, should that 'buy' a greater licence to offend?

    For example, what if someone makes a dazzlingly inventive and laugh-out-loud derogatory comment about Welsh people?

    Do they get a pass because it was funny?

    I guess grabcocque tested your theory to destruction.
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    NeilVW said:

    Vince Cable says he’s been in discussions for months with large groups of Labour MPs (and some Conservatives) about breaking away to form a new third party, although he’s vague about how it would actually work.

    https://order-order.com/2019/02/03/vince-cable-discussing-new-third-party-labour-mps/

    That must really motivate the troops, knowing your leader is off trying to kill your party and form a new one.....
    Speaking on Sophie Ridge this morning, Cable denied his party would be “subsumed” into any new venture, but was open to working with it in other ways.
    A bit like his previous SDP experience then.
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    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited February 2019
    Charles said:

    Boris Johnson dumps Brexit parliamentary paperwork in fuel station bin
    EXCLUSIVE: The king of gaffes dumped 70 pages of work into a petrol station trash can - including handwritten memos on the economy

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-dumps-brexit-parliamentary-13944587

    Man throws non confidential paper in bin

    The mirror really are scraping the barrel
    And even more damning Mirror readers spend their time searching through rubbish bins at service stations? 'A baffled member of the public' apparently picked these up and happened to hand them over to a Mirror journo!!
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,990
    NeilVW said:

    Vince Cable says he’s been in discussions for months with large groups of Labour MPs (and some Conservatives) about breaking away to form a new third party, although he’s vague about how it would actually work.

    https://order-order.com/2019/02/03/vince-cable-discussing-new-third-party-labour-mps/

    That must really motivate the troops, knowing your leader is off trying to kill your party and form a new one.....
    Been there, done that. Worked OK until Clegg and the likes of Laws got involved at the top. Incidentally, what's Danny Alexander doing? Vanished without trace since that awful night in 2015.
    According to Wiki he’s doing all right for himself:

    He is currently serving as vice president and corporate secretary at the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.[2][3]

    Ah, thanks. As you say, looks like he's found himself a comfortable berth.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,990
    justin124 said:

    Corbyn speaking in Glasgow yesterday -
    '“The SNP government has not just passed on Tory austerity, it has quadrupled it for local councils. And this week’s budget will mean another £230m in cuts that will hit local services the people of Scotland rely on.

    “There is a clear choice between more austerity or a Labour government that will put an end to austerity and build a country for the many, not the few.'

    Malc,, Malc, where are you when you're needed!
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,536
    edited February 2019
    On the subject of people in Nazi Uniforms, just caught up with this rather wonderful Twitter exchange from 2018:

    https://twitter.com/JohnPlayerNo6/status/1033426724862799872

    https://twitter.com/y_alibhai/status/1034091954416615424

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    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    NeilVW said:

    Vince Cable says he’s been in discussions for months with large groups of Labour MPs (and some Conservatives) about breaking away to form a new third party, although he’s vague about how it would actually work.

    https://order-order.com/2019/02/03/vince-cable-discussing-new-third-party-labour-mps/

    That must really motivate the troops, knowing your leader is off trying to kill your party and form a new one.....
    Been there, done that. Worked OK until Clegg and the likes of Laws got involved at the top. Incidentally, what's Danny Alexander doing? Vanished without trace since that awful night in 2015.
    According to Wiki he’s doing all right for himself:

    He is currently serving as vice president and corporate secretary at the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.[2][3]

    Seems the best way to make a profitable career in the Lib Dems is to lose your seat in an election.

    Danny has come a long way from being press officer for the Cairngorms national park. Who says people don't go into politics to make money - after they lose their seats.
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    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    To expand, I thought grabcocque was offensive and very funny.

    I gave him a pass. Until he tipped over into vindictive bullying of another poster.

    One “dazzlingly inventive and laugh-out-loud derogatory comment about Welsh people” would be a joy to hear. BTW, where is it? But a threadful of such comments, maybe not, as they’d tip into racist bullying.

    The Grenfell bonfire night blokes were just boorish feckers, but the costumes of the Twin Tower girls are very cute. Amber and Annie get a pass.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    If British factories shift production or close and high street stores go bankrupt and our economy tanks and businesses go into administration and our farms become uneconomic and food production hits the buffers and unemployment goes through the roof and food banks open in every town and the homeless fill the doorways and the government falls and rioters roam the streets. .....

    Do you think the EU would take us back?
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,771
    edited February 2019
    Charles said:

    Option 4 - Isles Custom Union with checks between RoI and EU is also a feasible solution.

    (History is an issue, of course)

    There's a difference between "feasible" and "plausible". UK not leaving the EU is feasible but not plausible.

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    brendan16 said:

    Charles said:

    Boris Johnson dumps Brexit parliamentary paperwork in fuel station bin
    EXCLUSIVE: The king of gaffes dumped 70 pages of work into a petrol station trash can - including handwritten memos on the economy

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-dumps-brexit-parliamentary-13944587

    Man throws non confidential paper in bin

    The mirror really are scraping the barrel
    And even more damning Mirror readers spend their time searching through rubbish bins at service stations? 'A baffled member of the public' apparently picked these up and happened to hand them over to a Mirror journo!!
    Even more baffling is that Boris has forgotten Sir Oliver Letwin being lambasted for the same thing.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,280
    Roger said:

    If British factories shift production or close and high street stores go bankrupt and our economy tanks and businesses go into administration and our farms become uneconomic and food production hits the buffers and unemployment goes through the roof and food banks open in every town and the homeless fill the doorways and the government falls and rioters roam the streets. .....

    Do you think the EU would take us back?

    More pertinent question is how far down the table of 'nothing to do with us' excuses the Brexiters would have sunk by then?
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,204

    I guess grabcocque tested your theory to destruction.

    :-)

    Indeed so.

    It's often said that if you are 'punching down' you should get less slack than if you are 'punching up'.

    I think I agree with this.

    Bad news for white male billionaire stand-ups. Perhaps that is why there aren't any - unless you count Donald Trump.
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    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited February 2019
    MattW said:

    On the subject of people in Nazi Uniforms, just caught up with this rather wonderful Twitter exchange from 2018:

    https://twitter.com/JohnPlayerNo6/status/1033426724862799872

    https://twitter.com/y_alibhai/status/1034091954416615424

    Surely Yasmin Alibhai Brown didn't fall for that - I presume she never watched Allo Allo.

    A very funny comedy - which like so many - is rarely repeated any more on terrestrial television as it might offend the snowflakes as it would be seen as homophobic, sexist and racist against the English, French, Italians and Germans. The only characters who got a positive rap were the Communist resistance - aka the Corbynites.

    It was always amazing how Rene managed to have all those young French women at his feet - but clearly like Boris he had something that attracted them?
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,990
    brendan16 said:

    NeilVW said:

    Vince Cable says he’s been in discussions for months with large groups of Labour MPs (and some Conservatives) about breaking away to form a new third party, although he’s vague about how it would actually work.

    https://order-order.com/2019/02/03/vince-cable-discussing-new-third-party-labour-mps/

    That must really motivate the troops, knowing your leader is off trying to kill your party and form a new one.....
    Been there, done that. Worked OK until Clegg and the likes of Laws got involved at the top. Incidentally, what's Danny Alexander doing? Vanished without trace since that awful night in 2015.
    According to Wiki he’s doing all right for himself:

    He is currently serving as vice president and corporate secretary at the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.[2][3]

    Seems the best way to make a profitable career in the Lib Dems is to lose your seat in an election.

    Danny has come a long way from being press officer for the Cairngorms national park. Who says people don't go into politics to make money - after they lose their seats.
    To be fair, according to Wikipedia (thanks for the advice/reminder to look up) he was also for eight years the Director of Communications at the European Movement (1996 to 1999) and its successor organisation, the Britain in Europe campaign (1999 to 2004). He only joined the Cairngorms National Park while nursing his potential seat. Another one, though, with an Oxford PPE.
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    justin124 said:

    Corbyn speaking in Glasgow yesterday -
    '“The SNP government has not just passed on Tory austerity, it has quadrupled it for local councils. And this week’s budget will mean another £230m in cuts that will hit local services the people of Scotland rely on.

    “There is a clear choice between more austerity or a Labour government that will put an end to austerity and build a country for the many, not the few.'

    Wahey, route 1 from Jezza to Justin with no intervening analysis (or such as might be available).

    Looks like he had a goodly chunk of Glasgow's SLab membership attending.

    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1091760259935494145
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,204
    IanB2 said:

    The big issue is that Labour thinks it has done well heretofore by sheltering behind its own unicorn 'jobs first' Brexit and has been wholly unprepared for the inexorable approach of decision day.

    I don't think it's fair to call their Brexit a unicorn. CU plus nearly SM is a realistic end-state.

    I mean it IS a unicorn, yes, but only because they are in opposition.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,122
    kinabalu said:

    This is a great fancy dress costume, the twin towers burning.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-24835322

    And that is Amber's and Annie’s career as pols over.

    And I loved the comment attributed to the mealy-mouthed w@nker at the end: “Never seen such disgusting behaviour by anyone.”

    It's 'where to draw the line' with this stuff, isn't it. Which is another way of saying each to his own. Unless the law is broken, I guess. Remember the Grenfell bonfire night incident? That ended up a police matter IIRC.

    Interesting question for me: Is there a valid trade-off between offensiveness and quality? - i.e. the more hilarious or creative something is, should that 'buy' a greater licence to offend?

    For example, what if someone makes a dazzlingly inventive and laugh-out-loud derogatory comment about Welsh people?

    Do they get a pass because it was funny?
    Surely it's important to draw a distinction between what behaviour should be illegal and what behaviour is just going to make you unpopular.

    The bar for illegality should be very high. As for unpopularity, who cares? Unless you're running for office, in which case it's difficult to argue against people paying a price for stupidity.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,122
    Thanks. That's very helpful. There were one or two items there I hadn't though of.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,204
    IanB2 said:

    Neither would heading for no deal, which is where we would be if the ERG play silly buggers over the necessary legislation. And, unlike remaining, no deal crash out has some very immediate real world consequences.

    The government is already planning for food shortages, medicine shortages, and evacuating the Queen because London will be too unsafe. What more evidence do you need?

    Agreed - neither No Deal nor No Brexit would hold the country together. Quite the opposite.

    Conclusion? ...

    Well, you know what I'm about to type so I won't bother typing it, even though it it took longer to type out this than what I was about to type.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,123

    brendan16 said:

    Charles said:

    Boris Johnson dumps Brexit parliamentary paperwork in fuel station bin
    EXCLUSIVE: The king of gaffes dumped 70 pages of work into a petrol station trash can - including handwritten memos on the economy

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-dumps-brexit-parliamentary-13944587

    Man throws non confidential paper in bin

    The mirror really are scraping the barrel
    And even more damning Mirror readers spend their time searching through rubbish bins at service stations? 'A baffled member of the public' apparently picked these up and happened to hand them over to a Mirror journo!!
    Even more baffling is that Boris has forgotten Sir Oliver Letwin being lambasted for the same thing.
    To be fair, Letwin did leave Parliamentary papers and constituents letters, rather than a baffling doodle of a Really Big Tooth....
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    NEW THREAD

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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,601

    Nigelb said:

    notme2 said:

    X-Trail is going to remain being produced in Japan (i.e. they aren't shifting to another EU country), and next-gen Qashqai will be in Sunderland.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47107561


    Just got myself a new diesel qashqui, a bit like driving a lumpy hairdryer. Not that impressed, but a 60mpg average on the 2500 mils have done so far is pleasing.
    If they had announced they were pulling the Qashqai deal that would have been huge. It is the #1 seller in its class in Europe and unlike the X-Trail is a) already based here and b) isn't primarily a diesel.
    What's the diesel angle with x-trails? If Europeans want to buy petrol ones now they'll make petrol ones, no? They're all petrol in Japan. Or I hope they are, because that's what I put in my rental one right before I took it back to the shop.
    It is not economic for the Japanese to provide their petrol engines from Japan

    The truth of this story is that Nissan sales of diesels is collapsing and as they already build them in Japan they can export direct to the EU now the 10% tariff has gone, their free trade deal last week

    As far as future investment is concerned of course brexit needs a deal, and there is one ready if the politicians could just grow up

    In all the reporting on this, it talks about the next generation X-Trail.
    Is that already being built in Japan, as that’s not at all clear ?

    When they announced this, that is not what they said. They said next-gen Qashqai and moving production of the european version of the X-Trail to Sunderland. They were talking about only a few 100 extra jobs for the X-Trail, the Qashqai was the big part of the announcement as it is the number 1 seller in its class across Europe.

    If they change their decision on the Qashqai that is 1000s and 1000s of jobs, but in the letter today they said they are still committed to the original plans re Qashqai.
    All the media reporting still refers to a “new” model:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47107561
    And sometime as next generation.

    Presumably their calculation is that the UK domestic market is large enough to take a punt on the Quashcow for now, but models that have to be exported to justify the costs simply aren’t worth bothering with.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,204
    glw said:

    Creepy is maybe not the right word. He was certainly considered odd or eccentric, and there were salacious rumours about him, but that's true for a lot of celebs. It's always worth bearing in mind that of the many people who claim "they always knew" very few of them tried to do anything about it. I don't think that more than a handful of people thought that Savile was one of Britain's most prolific sexual offenders.

    Very true, but there has been plenty of re-remembering going on.

    My mother, for example, I have a clear memory from when I was small of her cooing with approval at him on the box, saying "Jimmy has such a nice way with children, kinabalu, doesn't he? Doesn't patronize them at all. It's great to see."

    Fast forward to last year, and she said "Urgh, horrible man! Always thought so. Such a creep he was, it was obvious."

    She is quite old now, TBF, but I simply could not let that go. I just lost it with her. I reminded her in no uncertain terms of what she used to say decades ago. Gave it both barrels, gave her a right old rollicking.

    Will it teach her a lesson? I hope so.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Interesting article from yesterday's Guardian by Phillip Inman-
    'A no-deal Brexit is just another cataclysmic event among many in Britain’s recent history. That’s why there is a good chance it’s going to happen.

    The economy, unfortunately, has usually taken second place over the last 60 years to pride, party loyalty or – and this must be the most significant driving force – a trusting sense that no matter how bad things look everything will turn out OK.

    It’s a phlegmatic approach to life that means Britain could just as easily fudge the outcome of Brexit, condemning the nation to years of hopeless anger from those who would rather our politicians had plotted a course based on rigorous research and open discussion.

    Think of the much-delayed devaluation of the pound in 1967 and the decision, almost overnight, to join the European Economic Community (EEC). Next came the humiliating capitulation in 1976 to the demands of the International Monetary Fund following a long and desperate search for vital loans; the closure within a few of years of the UK’s coal and steel industries, putting more than one million people out of work; 1986’s Big Bang deregulation of the City; and the humiliating crash out of the European exchange rate mechanism (ERM) in 1992.

    What planning was made for these epoch-defining moments and the effects they might have on the country and its people? Very little.

    There is an obvious thread running through this list of events, and that is the mess, at every turn, the Tory party has gifted the nation from its time in office.

    The ’67 devaluation followed reckless Tory mismanagement in the early part of the decade. Likewise, Britain was broke in 1976 following a Tory spending spree. Ted Heath, who oversaw that spending spree, also thought little about the consequences for poorer communities of joining the EEC, just as Margaret Thatcher lazily left the fate of steelworkers and coalminers to the vagaries of the job market. Deregulation of the City sucked more money into London at the expense of the regions. Lastly, the Tories delayed and delayed a decision on ERM membership until crashing out was inevitable.

    Across the Channel, each of these developments was handled very differently. Which is not to say that France and Germany have all the answers. It’s just that the divergence with our neighbours over the need to plan is stark.'
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Dura_Ace said:

    They can use the factory to make the "Brex-Trail". It will eschew foreign nonsense like electronic ignition (American) and fuel injection (German). It'll be powered by a BL A series with an SU carb and mechanical points. If you don't buy one you are a fucking traitor.

    Lucky for me I already have vehicle with a Rover lump, Lucas electrics and an SU carb
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,975
    Charles. I agree that there are some wonderful provincial art galleries (Birmingham and Manchester have outstanding collections of pre-Raphaelite art, for example), but it's ridiculous to posit them against the London galleries, or the great galleries of Europe, as if their worth - superiority even - is hidden and unknown simply because London-centric Art critics who refuse to acknowledge them.
This discussion has been closed.