You may or may not be right but, unless or until there's another vote on the EU, there's no reliable means to test this hypothesis. If the polls had any value in this respect then they'd have called the result of the first one right.
Didn't they get the downgrading of our Credit Rating correct?
Hasn't been jacked back up recently, has it?
I'm sure there must be technical costs arising from having our credit rating downgraded, but it does not seem to have held our economy back....
FWIW the ratings of the main agencies do seem somewhat eccentric. Ranking Germany above the UK is not a decision likely to look sensible if the Euro finally collapses (a seeming inevitability absent political union, which no-one of any real influence save possibly for the embattled Macron appears willing to contemplate.) Ranking both Germany and the UK above Japan is plain bonkers.
When was the last poll to have Leave in the lead?
How many polls had Leave in the lead in the run up to the vote? That's the real question. Until Remain consistently has margins considerably greater (at least five points) than it had in the polls in 2016, it strikes me as dangerous to say views have changed.
Interesting article from yesterday's Guardian by Phillip Inman- 'A no-deal Brexit is just another cataclysmic event among many in Britain’s recent history. That’s why there is a good chance it’s going to happen.
[snip]
Except...there was long-term planning to build stocks of coal at Didcot and other power stations ahead of a confrontation with the miners. I had a house in Brum at the time backing on to a railway line that went down south. There were constant lengthy coal trains heading past, going south. Irony is, there must have been plenty of overtime for miners ahead of that miners strike that, er, broke the miners.
(Remembering of course that the aftermath of Thatcher winning that miners strike was that she oversaw fewer pit closures than Labour had undertaken.)
In this position, I'm in no doubt that Maggie would have started No Deal planning from Day One, well before the Artcile 50 notice was served.
I'm sure she would. As would anyone with any sense. I dare say Mrs May would have done had she had freedom of action. The problem here is the hardline Brexiters.
You may or may not be right but, unless or until there's another vote on the EU, there's no reliable means to test this hypothesis. If the polls had any value in this respect then they'd have called the result of the first one right.
Didn't they get the downgrading of our Credit Rating correct?
Hasn't been jacked back up recently, has it?
I'm sure there must be technical costs arising from having our credit rating downgraded, but it does not seem to have held our economy back....
FWIW the ratings of the main agencies do seem somewhat eccentric. Ranking Germany above the UK is not a decision likely to look sensible if the Euro finally collapses (a seeming inevitability absent political union, which no-one of any real influence save possibly for the embattled Macron appears willing to contemplate.) Ranking both Germany and the UK above Japan is plain bonkers.
When was the last poll to have Leave in the lead?
How many polls had Leave in the lead in the run up to the vote? That's the real question. Until Remain consistently has margins considerably greater (at least five points) than it had in the polls in 2016, it strikes me as dangerous to say views have changed.
Moreover, there has been a clear swing in post-referendum polling away from Leave.
And, further, the pollsters have both reported voting behaviour from the first referendum and reported voting turnout to refine their models - they aren't shooting so blind on turnout as first time around.
The most common erroneous assumption on PB is that because the polls were out by X% in one direction last time, they could be out by the same amount in the same direction the next time. Whereas it is more common for pollsters to over-compensate for previous error and to actually be out in the opposite direction next time around.
If avocados are Remain fruit, which fruits are distinctively Leave?
And it seems now as part of their penance for not supporting the Leave death cult, Remainers are obliged to tour northern English blots on the landscape to see third rate paintings rather than visit internationally famous art galleries in world-famous cultural destinations of unsurpassed beauty. Could we be issued with itineraries (tentatively to be named The Fourteen Stations Of The Wrong Cross)?
turnips
obviously
Turnips are a vegetable.
The Leave fruit would be an apple, but an Irish Peach - comes around quickly, and about half of people say it tastes delicious when you pick it, but if you leave it even for a short time it goes off and causes a bad taste, being then useful for nothing and nobody.
Ironically I suggest the leaver fruit is a Seville Orange. Looks lovely growing on the tree, full of promise. You pick it full of hope. Then you take a bite.
Arguably irrelevant. The polls aren't reliable. They were all over the place for the 2016 vote and again for the last General Election, and in both cases some of the polls were more-or-less right but most of them were plain wrong. From the experience of the General Election, we also know how what opinion polling suggests to be apparently settled views can change dramatically in the course of a relatively short campaign.
If, hypothetically, there were a straight re-run of the 2016 referendum later this year then we might well see a Remain victory, although I think that blunt instrument surveys about whether the original decision was right or wrong may mask a significant body of opinion of the middling sort: that which backed Remain in 2016 and thinks that quitting the EU isn't a very good idea, but would now vote Leave just because they believe that the original result should be respected - and that asking the same question over and over again until Parliament gets the result that it wants is both tin-eared and very impertinent.
How many people believed factually incorrect stories about the EU?
Boot is firmly on the other foot now - every bad bit of economic news over the next 5 years will be because of Brexit. You reap what you sow.
Brexit is only at any serious risk of taking the blame amongst a broad majority of the electorate if (a) we lapse from modest economic growth into recession AND (b) there is substantial divergence in economic performance between the UK and the average for the Eurozone.
Have a small population and discover vast quantities of oil and gas offshore.
I never tire of telling the story of the lengthy border negotiations between the UK and Norway, to define the boundary between the two countries. Assumed a fairly esoteric exercise, there were occasional meetings over a period of years. One day, after the Norwegians had treated our team to a slap up lunch, we caved in and accepted their proposal.
The section we had agreed to give away included huge hydrocarbon deposits in the Statfjord, Gullfacks, Sleipner and Frigg fields. If we had held the line in those talks, Norway's oil fund of around a trillion dollars would have been significantly the UK's.
And we think our negotiators can be trusted to look after our interests! Would that have been in the late 60's?
Early sixties I think.
Possibly the best return for picking up the tab in history!
It's hard to imagine how the border could be moved any further west, it looks almost equidistant from the UK and Norway. Unless it was moved afterwards?
I'm not saying our opening position was fair! It might have been a throwback to imperial, Britannia Rules The Waves, we'll-take-what-we-jolly-well-want gunboat diplomacy.....
Our opening position was based on continental shelf position. It was perfectly defensible by the standards of the time.
But we fucked it. Much like we fucked failing to create a capital fund based on oil revenue and rather spunked it on current account spending (and just in case you think I'm gonna blame Thatcher for that, whilst she could have reversed the decision, it was the Labour government who decided to explicitly not create a capital fund - I think it was Tony Benn who wrote about his grave disappointment at the decision).
Arguably irrelevant. The polls aren't reliable. They were all over the place for the 2016 vote and again for the last General Election, and in both cases some of the polls were more-or-less right but most of them were plain wrong. In the case of the General Election, we also know how what opinion polling suggests to be apparently settled views can change dramatically in the course of a relatively short campaign.
If, hypothetically, there were a straight re-run of the 2016 referendum later this year then we might well see a Remain victory, although I think that blunt instrument surveys about whether the original decision was right or wrong may mask a significant body of opinion of the middling sort: that which backed Remain in 2016 and thinks that quitting the EU isn't a very good idea, but would now vote Leave just because they believe that the original result should be respected - and that asking the same question over and over again until Parliament gets the result that it wants is both tin-eared and very impertinent.
Had enough of experts?
Unlike during the referendum, the polls are giving a consistent message and indeed show a swing to Remain since. It seems perfectly reasonable to assume Leavers are currently in a minority, certainly you cannot proceed, as you originally did, on the basis that the currently Leave-inclined are the key demographic now.
You may or may not be right but, unless or until there's another vote on the EU, there's no reliable means to test this hypothesis. If the polls had any value in this respect then they'd have called the result of the first one right.
Didn't they get the downgrading of our Credit Rating correct?
Hasn't been jacked back up recently, has it?
I'm sure there must be technical costs arising from having our credit rating downgraded, but it does not seem to have held our economy back....
FWIW the ratings of the main agencies do seem somewhat eccentric. Ranking Germany above the UK is not a decision likely to look sensible if the Euro finally collapses (a seeming inevitability absent political union, which no-one of any real influence save possibly for the embattled Macron appears willing to contemplate.) Ranking both Germany and the UK above Japan is plain bonkers.
When was the last poll to have Leave in the lead?
How many polls had Leave in the lead in the run up to the vote? That's the real question. Until Remain consistently has margins considerably greater (at least five points) than it had in the polls in 2016, it strikes me as dangerous to say views have changed.
The most consistent polling of the same question is the right/wrong series from YouGov, and the trend is undeniable.
My view of what no deal would mean is informed by my chilling conversations with ministers, civil servants and heads of government agencies who have responsibility for essential services and commerce. They are sweating fear. So are public sector and business leaders. The people who would have to handle the consequences of Britain crashing out of the EU are very scared indeed. This fright is shared in the highest reaches of the cabinet. So if we end up in a no-deal scenario, it would mean that senior ministers had allowed it to happen, fully conscious that they were playing roulette with Britain’s future like a last chip gambler in a Las Vegas casino. Sir Oliver is surely correct when he says that the blame for a nightmare Brexit would be indelibly stamped on his party.
The Conservatives will own a nightmare Brexit and it will not just be Remain voters who will take their revenge on the Tory party. It will also be Leave voters. If Brexit goes horribly wrong, Leave voters are not going to find fault with themselves for being suckered by a bogus prospectus, unrealisable promises and a red bus emblazoned with a lie. Leave voters are going to blame the Tories for betraying them.
Arguably irrelevant. The polls aren't reliable. They were all over the place for the 2016 vote and again for the last General Election, and in both cases some of the polls were more-or-less right but most of them were plain wrong. From the experience of the General Election, we also know how what opinion polling suggests to be apparently settled views can change dramatically in the course of a relatively short campaign.
If, hypothetically, there were a straight re-run of the 2016 referendum later this year then we might well see a Remain victory, although I think that blunt instrument surveys about whether the original decision was right or wrong may mask a significant body of opinion of the middling sort: that which backed Remain in 2016 and thinks that quitting the EU isn't a very good idea, but would now vote Leave just because they believe that the original result should be respected - and that asking the same question over and over again until Parliament gets the result that it wants is both tin-eared and very impertinent.
If avocados are Remain fruit, which fruits are distinctively Leave?
And it seems now as part of their penance for not supporting the Leave death cult, Remainers are obliged to tour northern English blots on the landscape to see third rate paintings rather than visit internationally famous art galleries in world-famous cultural destinations of unsurpassed beauty. Could we be issued with itineraries (tentatively to be named The Fourteen Stations Of The Wrong Cross)?
turnips
obviously
Turnips are a vegetable.
The Leave fruit would be an apple, but an Irish Peach - comes around quickly, and about half of people say it tastes delicious when you pick it, but if you leave it even for a short time it goes off and causes a bad taste, being then useful for nothing and nobody.
Ironically I suggest the leaver fruit is a Seville Orange. Looks lovely growing on the tree, full of promise. You pick it full of hope. Then you take a bite.
And once you have eaten the fruit of the tree of knowledge there is no return
My view of what no deal would mean is informed by my chilling conversations with ministers, civil servants and heads of government agencies who have responsibility for essential services and commerce. They are sweating fear. So are public sector and business leaders. The people who would have to handle the consequences of Britain crashing out of the EU are very scared indeed. This fright is shared in the highest reaches of the cabinet. So if we end up in a no-deal scenario, it would mean that senior ministers had allowed it to happen, fully conscious that they were playing roulette with Britain’s future like a last chip gambler in a Las Vegas casino. Sir Oliver is surely correct when he says that the blame for a nightmare Brexit would be indelibly stamped on his party.
The Conservatives will own a nightmare Brexit and it will not just be Remain voters who will take their revenge on the Tory party. It will also be Leave voters. If Brexit goes horribly wrong, Leave voters are not going to find fault with themselves for being suckered by a bogus prospectus, unrealisable promises and a red bus emblazoned with a lie. Leave voters are going to blame the Tories for betraying them.
If avocados are Remain fruit, which fruits are distinctively Leave?
And it seems now as part of their penance for not supporting the Leave death cult, Remainers are obliged to tour northern English blots on the landscape to see third rate paintings rather than visit internationally famous art galleries in world-famous cultural destinations of unsurpassed beauty. Could we be issued with itineraries (tentatively to be named The Fourteen Stations Of The Wrong Cross)?
turnips
obviously
Turnips are a vegetable.
The Leave fruit would be an apple, but an Irish Peach - comes around quickly, and about half of people say it tastes delicious when you pick it, but if you leave it even for a short time it goes off and causes a bad taste, being then useful for nothing and nobody.
Ironically I suggest the leaver fruit is a Seville Orange. Looks lovely growing on the tree, full of promise. You pick it full of hope. Then you take a bite.
Then you discover that a minimal input of time and effort transforms it into the most delicious, and most distinctively British, foodstuff known to mankind.
I think we are going to have to face facts - ManU are never, ever going to lose again under Solskjaer......
I thought Solsjkaer was fairly tactically inept. After Leicester gifted the first goal (a rather concerning recent habit) ManU were pretty poor. He will get the job though.
Arguably irrelevant. The polls aren't reliable. They were all over the place for the 2016 vote and again for the last General Election, and in both cases some of the polls were more-or-less right but most of them were plain wrong. From the experience of the General Election, we also know how what opinion polling suggests to be apparently settled views can change dramatically in the course of a relatively short campaign.
If, hypothetically, there were a straight re-run of the 2016 referendum later this year then we might well see a Remain victory, although I think that blunt instrument surveys about whether the original decision was right or wrong may mask a significant body of opinion of the middling sort: that which backed Remain in 2016 and thinks that quitting the EU isn't a very good idea, but would now vote Leave just because they believe that the original result should be respected - and that asking the same question over and over again until Parliament gets the result that it wants is both tin-eared and very impertinent.
Entirely fair. I would argue that the polls are essentially useless, others would argue that they aren't. However, my central contention - that these kinds of opinion polls are closer to crystal ball gazing that a scientific exercise, and it is therefore unwise to base a solid argument upon them - is sound. It is what the available evidence would suggest.
Stating that people would now vote to stay in the EU because the published results of some YouGov surveys says that they would isn't a statement of fact, and nor is claiming that there's any kind of strong likelihood that they would do so. Taking these polls at face value is merely an instance of confirmation bias. We can speculate on the outcome of referendum mark 2, but nobody (on either side of the argument, or stuck in the middle and willing it to go away) has the faintest idea what would actually happen.
You may or may not be right but, unless or until there's another vote on the EU, there's no reliable means to test this hypothesis. If the polls had any value in this respect then they'd have called the result of the first one right.
Didn't they get the downgrading of our Credit Rating correct?
Hasn't been jacked back up recently, has it?
I'm sure there must be technical costs arising from having our credit rating downgraded, but it does not seem to have held our economy back....
FWIW the ratings of the main agencies do seem somewhat eccentric. Ranking Germany above the UK is not a decision likely to look sensible if the Euro finally collapses (a seeming inevitability absent political union, which no-one of any real influence save possibly for the embattled Macron appears willing to contemplate.) Ranking both Germany and the UK above Japan is plain bonkers.
When was the last poll to have Leave in the lead?
How many polls had Leave in the lead in the run up to the vote? That's the real question. Until Remain consistently has margins considerably greater (at least five points) than it had in the polls in 2016, it strikes me as dangerous to say views have changed.
The most consistent polling of the same question is the right/wrong series from YouGov, and the trend is undeniable.
I deny that's the trendline. Yes the trend is down (unsurprisingly) but the trendline in no way is that steep, someone has drawn that on who doesn't understand (or care about) statistics.
Arguably irrelevant. The polls aren't reliable. They were all over the place for the 2016 vote and again for the last General Election, and in both cases some of the polls were more-or-less right but most of them were plain wrong. From the experience of the General Election, we also know how what opinion polling suggests to be apparently settled views can change dramatically in the course of a relatively short campaign.
If, hypothetically, there were a straight re-run of the 2016 referendum later this year then we might well see a Remain victory, although I think that blunt instrument surveys about whether the original decision was right or wrong may mask a significant body of opinion of the middling sort: that which backed Remain in 2016 and thinks that quitting the EU isn't a very good idea, but would now vote Leave just because they believe that the original result should be respected - and that asking the same question over and over again until Parliament gets the result that it wants is both tin-eared and very impertinent.
Entirely fair. I would argue that the polls are essentially useless, others would argue that they aren't. However, my central contention - that these kinds of opinion polls are closer to crystal ball gazing that a scientific exercise, and it is therefore unwise to base a solid argument upon them - is sound. It is what the available evidence would suggest.
Stating that people would now vote to stay in the EU because the published results of some YouGov surveys says that they would isn't a statement of fact, and nor is claiming that there's any kind of strong likelihood that they would do so. Taking these polls at face value is merely an instance of confirmation bias. We can speculate on the outcome of referendum mark 2, but nobody (on either side of the argument, or stuck in the middle and willing it to go away) has the faintest idea what would actually happen.
You’re ignoring inconvenient evidence because it all points one way against your preferred position. I’m sure that there are levels at which you would accept poll findings (3:1? 2:1?). When things are closer, I agree they are of much less certain value. But they are not valueless and indeed the consistency of their current message from different pollsters makes them rather more reliable.
You may or may not be right but, unless or until there's another vote on the EU, there's no reliable means to test this hypothesis. If the polls had any value in this respect then they'd have called the result of the first one right.
Didn't they get the downgrading of our Credit Rating correct?
Hasn't been jacked back up recently, has it?
I'm sure there must be technical costs arising from having our credit rating downgraded, but it does not seem to have held our economy back....
FWIW the ratings of the main agencies do seem somewhat eccentric. Ranking Germany above the UK is not a decision likely to look sensible if the Euro finally collapses (a seeming inevitability absent political union, which no-one of any real influence save possibly for the embattled Macron appears willing to contemplate.) Ranking both Germany and the UK above Japan is plain bonkers.
When was the last poll to have Leave in the lead?
How many polls had Leave in the lead in the run up to the vote? That's the real question. Until Remain consistently has margins considerably greater (at least five points) than it had in the polls in 2016, it strikes me as dangerous to say views have changed.
The most consistent polling of the same question is the right/wrong series from YouGov, and the trend is undeniable.
I deny that's the trendline. Yes the trend is down (unsurprisingly) but the trendline in no way is that steep, someone has drawn that on who doesn't understand (or care about) statistics.
It’s highly surprising that the trend is down. Normally policies become more popular after they have been decided upon.
You may or may not be right but, unless or until there's another vote on the EU, there's no reliable means to test this hypothesis. If the polls had any value in this respect then they'd have called the result of the first one right.
Didn't they get the downgrading of our Credit Rating correct?
Hasn't been jacked back up recently, has it?
I'm sure there must be technical costs arising from having our credit rating downgraded, but it does not seem to have held our economy back....
FWIW the ratings of the main agencies do seem somewhat eccentric. Ranking Germany above the UK is not a decision likely to look sensible if the Euro finally collapses (a seeming inevitability absent political union, which no-one of any real influence save possibly for the embattled Macron appears willing to contemplate.) Ranking both Germany and the UK above Japan is plain bonkers.
When was the last poll to have Leave in the lead?
How many polls had Leave in the lead in the run up to the vote? That's the real question. Until Remain consistently has margins considerably greater (at least five points) than it had in the polls in 2016, it strikes me as dangerous to say views have changed.
The most consistent polling of the same question is the right/wrong series from YouGov, and the trend is undeniable.
In an actual vote the result would depend on the turnout.
Would Remain voters or Leave voters be most motivated to turn out and vote?
If avocados are Remain fruit, which fruits are distinctively Leave?
And it seems now as part of their penance for not supporting the Leave death cult, Remainers are obliged to tour northern English blots on the landscape to see third rate paintings rather than visit internationally famous art galleries in world-famous cultural destinations of unsurpassed beauty. Could we be issued with itineraries (tentatively to be named The Fourteen Stations Of The Wrong Cross)?
turnips
obviously
Turnips are a vegetable.
The Leave fruit would be an apple, but an Irish Peach - comes around quickly, and about half of people say it tastes delicious when you pick it, but if you leave it even for a short time it goes off and causes a bad taste, being then useful for nothing and nobody.
Ironically I suggest the leaver fruit is a Seville Orange. Looks lovely growing on the tree, full of promise. You pick it full of hope. Then you take a bite.
Then you discover that a minimal input of time and effort transforms it into the most delicious, and most distinctively British, foodstuff known to mankind.
Tricky things, analogies.
Terry's Chocolate Orange?
Only joking. I've been Brexi-hoarding Duerr's (which is unaccountably cheaper than the sugary jelly which passes for Robertson's Marmalade) just in case.
What no thread on betting on the hand egg final this evening....what do I pay my membership fee for?
I refuse to watch the Super Bowl on the basis that rugby is better.
Soft twats with helmets and padding what the fuck?
Grow a pair you big Jessie Yank tossers.
Also how can they call it football if they don't use their feet?
The helmets aren't there for protection....they are there to hurt your opponent!
That's what gouging is for.
What's the padding for? I mean is it a tribute to Joan Collins/Dynasty?
To prevent fatalities - a not uncommon occurrence in the early days - and allow regular impacts at energies sufficient to cause long term brain damage.
If avocados are Remain fruit, which fruits are distinctively Leave?
And it seems now as part of their penance for not supporting the Leave death cult, Remainers are obliged to tour northern English blots on the landscape to see third rate paintings rather than visit internationally famous art galleries in world-famous cultural destinations of unsurpassed beauty. Could we be issued with itineraries (tentatively to be named The Fourteen Stations Of The Wrong Cross)?
turnips
obviously
Turnips are a vegetable.
The Leave fruit would be an apple, but an Irish Peach - comes around quickly, and about half of people say it tastes delicious when you pick it, but if you leave it even for a short time it goes off and causes a bad taste, being then useful for nothing and nobody.
Ironically I suggest the leaver fruit is a Seville Orange. Looks lovely growing on the tree, full of promise. You pick it full of hope. Then you take a bite.
Then you discover that a minimal input of time and effort transforms it into the most delicious, and most distinctively British, foodstuff known to mankind.
Tricky things, analogies.
Terry's Chocolate Orange?
Only joking. I've been Brexi-hoarding Duerr's (which is unaccountably cheaper than the sugary jelly which passes for Robertson's Marmalade) just in case.
I have 2kg of the things themselves sitting in the kitchen waiting to be processed.
I am also quite seriously starting to build up reserves of tins, rice and pasta, starting tomorrow. Leaver bravado about Project Fear is starting to sound a bit hollow.
Nissan are not scaling back their Sunderland operation.
But they will be utilising the new EU Japan trade agreement to import their X Trail model into the EU from Japan now that prohibitive EU import tariffs on cars are to be reduced.
Some Leavers clearly don’t understand polling or they pretend not to because they don’t like the results .
Given not a single quality poll anywhere for 18 months has shown majority support for Leave suggests currently that is no longer the “ will of the people “ !
The debate around what would happen at the end of a new ref campaign is irrelevant . Polling takes a snapshot of opinion but it’s clear that there has been a change . Most of this is from new voters and higher turnout from those who preferred Remain.
A myth peddled by the media is that the Leave vote was a shock , that the polling was way off . This is totally discredited by the polls themselves . Numerous polls had Leave ahead .
Nissan are not scaling back their Sunderland operation.
But they will be utilising the new EU Japan trade agreement to import their X Trail model into the EU from Japan now that prohibitive EU import tariffs on cars are to be reduced.
So EU not being protectionist then.
On WTO terms Japanese Nissans will be tarrif free into the EU, Sunderland ones at 10%.
Some Leavers clearly don’t understand polling or they pretend not to because they don’t like the results .
Given not a single quality poll anywhere for 18 months has shown majority support for Leave suggests currently that is no longer the “ will of the people “ !
The debate around what would happen at the end of a new ref campaign is irrelevant . Polling takes a snapshot of opinion but it’s clear that there has been a change . Most of this is from new voters and higher turnout from those who preferred Remain.
A myth peddled by the media is that the Leave vote was a shock , that the polling was way off . This is totally discredited by the polls themselves . Numerous polls had Leave ahead .
No poll by Yougov has shown Leave ahead, recently.
There have been polls by Com Res, Opinium, Deltapoll, and Survation that have put Leave ahead.
If avocados are Remain fruit, which fruits are distinctively Leave?
And it seems now as part of their penance for not supporting the Leave death cult, Remainers are obliged to tour northern English blots on the landscape to see third rate paintings rather than visit internationally famous art galleries in world-famous cultural destinations of unsurpassed beauty. Could we be issued with itineraries (tentatively to be named The Fourteen Stations Of The Wrong Cross)?
turnips
obviously
Turnips are a vegetable.
The Leave fruit would be an apple, but an Irish Peach - comes around quickly, and about half of people say it tastes delicious when you pick it, but if you leave it even for a short time it goes off and causes a bad taste, being then useful for nothing and nobody.
Ironically I suggest the leaver fruit is a Seville Orange. Looks lovely growing on the tree, full of promise. You pick it full of hope. Then you take a bite.
Then you discover that a minimal input of time and effort transforms it into the most delicious, and most distinctively British, foodstuff known to mankind.
Tricky things, analogies.
Terry's Chocolate Orange?
Only joking. I've been Brexi-hoarding Duerr's (which is unaccountably cheaper than the sugary jelly which passes for Robertson's Marmalade) just in case.
I have 2kg of the things themselves sitting in the kitchen waiting to be processed.
I am also quite seriously starting to build up reserves of tins, rice and pasta, starting tomorrow. Leaver bravado about Project Fear is starting to sound a bit hollow.
Nobody has suggested any shortage in tinned goods, rice, or pasta.
If avocados are Remain fruit, which fruits are distinctively Leave?
And it seems now as part of their penance for not supporting the Leave death cult, Remainers are obliged to tour northern English blots on the landscape to see third rate paintings rather than visit internationally famous art galleries in world-famous cultural destinations of unsurpassed beauty. Could we be issued with itineraries (tentatively to be named The Fourteen Stations Of The Wrong Cross)?
turnips
obviously
Turnips are a vegetable.
The Leave fruit would be an apple, but an Irish Peach - comes around quickly, and about half of people say it tastes delicious when you pick it, but if you leave it even for a short time it goes off and causes a bad taste, being then useful for nothing and nobody.
Ironically I suggest the leaver fruit is a Seville Orange. Looks lovely growing on the tree, full of promise. You pick it full of hope. Then you take a bite.
Then you discover that a minimal input of time and effort transforms it into the most delicious, and most distinctively British, foodstuff known to mankind.
Tricky things, analogies.
Terry's Chocolate Orange?
Only joking. I've been Brexi-hoarding Duerr's (which is unaccountably cheaper than the sugary jelly which passes for Robertson's Marmalade) just in case.
I have 2kg of the things themselves sitting in the kitchen waiting to be processed.
I am also quite seriously starting to build up reserves of tins, rice and pasta, starting tomorrow. Leaver bravado about Project Fear is starting to sound a bit hollow.
Aren't prices likely to go down in the short term;
If you're a Leaver and don't believe that there will significant delays at customs points then the current stockpiling of food will reduce demand in the short term whilst supply will remain the same. Prices go down.
If you're a Remainer and believe that the economy will tank post-Brexit and demand will collapse, in part due to all the migrant workers leaving the UK. Prices go down.
Nissan are not scaling back their Sunderland operation.
But they will be utilising the new EU Japan trade agreement to import their X Trail model into the EU from Japan now that prohibitive EU import tariffs on cars are to be reduced.
So EU not being protectionist then.
On WTO terms Japanese Nissans will be tarrif free into the EU, Sunderland ones at 10%.
Similarly EU cars into the UK will have import tariffs. So Japanese owned and other UK car plants will be able to substitute for car imports from the EU.
Swearing in French, it's like wiping your arse with silk.
As I recall, you had to pineapple pizza after a certain bet although here were comments about 'cow botherers' when you lot. Are you saying you didn't keep it?
I could just merder a good line in swearing over the current impasse in Parliament.
Swearing in French, it's like wiping your arse with silk.
As I recall, you had to pineapple pizza after a certain bet although here were comments about 'cow botherers' when you lot. Are you saying you didn't keep it?
I could just merder a good line in swearing over the current impasse in Parliament.
Swearing in French, it's like wiping your arse with silk.
As I recall, you had to pineapple pizza after a certain bet although here were comments about 'cow botherers' when you lot. Are you saying you didn't keep it?
I could just merder a good line in swearing over the current impasse in Parliament.
It was more half a slice rather a full pizza.
Actually, I'm going to leave it there, because I think on re-reading my comment you deserve a medal for working out what I meant.
How does SeanT do it (that is, post vaguely coherently while pissed)?
Swearing in French, it's like wiping your arse with silk.
As I recall, you had to pineapple pizza after a certain bet although here were comments about 'cow botherers' when you lot. Are you saying you didn't keep it?
I could just merder a good line in swearing over the current impasse in Parliament.
It was more half a slice rather a full pizza.
Actually, I'm going to leave it there, because I think on re-reading my comment you deserve a medal for working out what I meant.
How does SeanT do it (that is, post vaguely coherently while pissed)?
It is one of my talents, I can speed read, and I can also work out what people mean to say.
Nonsense. Some of us take a less cramped view of God’s own county.
I'm really proud of my Yorkshire accent.
Means I drop the c-bomb every time I say can't.
Now explain how you manage to do the same with the word 'Corbyn'.
I don't like to use the c-word in general, says more about the person saying it than the person it is aimed at.
Although the last person I called the c-word was Mark Reckless, when I said 'I can't call him a c*** but he's a f*cking c*nt, who deserves a red hot poker up his arse'.
If avocados are Remain fruit, which fruits are distinctively Leave?
And it seems now as part of their penance for not supporting the Leave death cult, Remainers are obliged to tour northern English blots on the landscape to see third rate paintings rather than visit internationally famous art galleries in world-famous cultural destinations of unsurpassed beauty. Could we be issued with itineraries (tentatively to be named The Fourteen Stations Of The Wrong Cross)?
turnips
obviously
Turnips are a vegetable.
The Leave fruit would be an apple, but an Irish Peach - comes around quickly, and about half of people say it tastes delicious when you pick it, but if you leave it even for a short time it goes off and causes a bad taste, being then useful for nothing and nobody.
Ironically I suggest the leaver fruit is a Seville Orange. Looks lovely growing on the tree, full of promise. You pick it full of hope. Then you take a bite.
Then you discover that a minimal input of time and effort transforms it into the most delicious, and most distinctively British, foodstuff known to mankind.
Tricky things, analogies.
Terry's Chocolate Orange?
Only joking. I've been Brexi-hoarding Duerr's (which is unaccountably cheaper than the sugary jelly which passes for Robertson's Marmalade) just in case.
I have 2kg of the things themselves sitting in the kitchen waiting to be processed.
I am also quite seriously starting to build up reserves of tins, rice and pasta, starting tomorrow. Leaver bravado about Project Fear is starting to sound a bit hollow.
I will give you a leaver tip. Think of what project fear says will be rotting at the ports. You should have your seedlings in for Toms, pots and salad leaves plus other veggies you like. Bought your polytunnels, rotovated the lawn and covered it in cow shit. That plus beef and pork in the freezer and a good stock of olive oil is the answer if you are a believer.
Pasta, rice and tinned stuff will be freely available, it does not rot at the port.
Swearing in French, it's like wiping your arse with silk.
As I recall, you had to pineapple pizza after a certain bet although here were comments about 'cow botherers' when you lot. Are you saying you didn't keep it?
I could just merder a good line in swearing over the current impasse in Parliament.
It was more half a slice rather a full pizza.
Actually, I'm going to leave it there, because I think on re-reading my comment you deserve a medal for working out what I meant.
How does SeanT do it (that is, post vaguely coherently while pissed)?
You get an extra prize for verbing pineapple pizza.
Swearing in French, it's like wiping your arse with silk.
As I recall, you had to pineapple pizza after a certain bet although here were comments about 'cow botherers' when you lot. Are you saying you didn't keep it?
I could just merder a good line in swearing over the current impasse in Parliament.
It was more half a slice rather a full pizza.
Actually, I'm going to leave it there, because I think on re-reading my comment you deserve a medal for working out what I meant.
How does SeanT do it (that is, post vaguely coherently while pissed)?
You get an extra prize for verbing pineapple pizza.
What no thread on betting on the hand egg final this evening....what do I pay my membership fee for?
I refuse to watch the Super Bowl on the basis that rugby is better.
Soft twats with helmets and padding what the fuck?
Grow a pair you big Jessie Yank tossers.
Also how can they call it football if they don't use their feet?
The helmets aren't there for protection....they are there to hurt your opponent!
That's what gouging is for.
What's the padding for? I mean is it a tribute to Joan Collins/Dynasty?
I expecting that your main objection would be the socialist nature of how NFL is run, not the shoulder pad fashion faux pas.
The Patriots have rather broken the system. Long term success should be impossible,
It is the genius of Bill Belichick. Year in, year out, he manages to overcome all the massive disadvantages the system puts in place. It is quite incredible really (despite how unpopular the team are).
However, Brady is about done at 41 years old!!!, and they have no up and coming QB. Gronk is being held together with duck tape every game and can only really make an impact on a handful of occasions.
It’s not brain surgery. Currently UK-based manufacturers are operating inside a market of 450 million people. From 30th March the market will be 65 million people. Of course, there will be less incentive to invest and locate here. It’s basic stuff.
Nonsense. Some of us take a less cramped view of God’s own county.
I'm really proud of my Yorkshire accent.
Means I drop the c-bomb every time I say can't.
Now explain how you manage to do the same with the word 'Corbyn'.
I don't like to use the c-word in general, says more about the person saying it than the person it is aimed at.
Although the last person I called the c-word was Mark Reckless, when I said 'I can't call him a c*** but he's a f*cking c*nt, who deserves a red hot poker up his arse'.
I still think the most effective use of the f-word is the first few minutes of Four Weddings and a Funeral. Each of those words means something different - and we understand every one of them. Swearing as an art form.
The approach by the ERG will see at least one of the following.
1) Delay in leaving
2) Revocation of Article 50
3) The UK rejoining the EU after a Brexit related economic slump
The UK? Do you really expect the UK to survive as a political entity after no deal?
Depends how long No Deal lasts for.
I suspect the Scots will bottle it again.
Back of their mind will be if leaving a near 50 year old trade union is difficult it will be even harder to leave a 300 year old political and economic union.
As for Northern Ireland, who knows, the DUP are crazy.
I will give you a leaver tip. Think of what project fear says will be rotting at the ports. You should have your seedlings in for Toms, pots and salad leaves plus other veggies you like. Bought your polytunnels, rotovated the lawn and covered it in cow shit. That plus beef and pork in the freezer and a good stock of olive oil is the answer if you are a believer.
Pasta, rice and tinned stuff will be freely available, it does not rot at the port.
It also does not rot in my store cupboard, and it does sell out from supermarkets because of a combination of people substituting it for the stuff which does rot at the port, and of people like me who have brought purchases forward in anticipation of that happening.
I think the more intelligent leavers would probably accept that if we leave with no deal, produce will be rotting at the ports. The "project fear" claim was that the danger of a no deal exit was negligible, not that if it happened it would be harmless.
France's economy is about the same size as ours, reformed or not.
Macron instincts were right, it needs reform. But it doesn't look like he is going to get anything much done.
The French electorate suffer from collective schizophrenia; they vote (heavily) for reform and then refuse to accept it when anyone tries to implement it. Sarkozy found the same.
When I was a lad in the 1980s and playing RU, a few of us were invited down to American Football training on Sunday morning to try it out. Not very impressed. It took ages to get the protection on and I scored a touchdown by following a large black lad who trampled a path for me to score.
We tried the same tactic next time, but the defence had wised up. Large black lad was flattened and I followed suit. Only my pride hurt, though. Too much chess and not enough real violence.
The approach by the ERG will see at least one of the following.
1) Delay in leaving
2) Revocation of Article 50
3) The UK rejoining the EU after a Brexit related economic slump
The UK? Do you really expect the UK to survive as a political entity after no deal?
Depends how long No Deal lasts for.
I suspect the Scots will bottle it again.
Back of their mind will be if leaving a near 50 year old trade union is difficult it will be even harder to leave a 300 year old political and economic union.
As for Northern Ireland, who knows, the DUP are crazy.
With Scotland I think you’ll get some high profile defections to Yes that will have a big impact.
12 weeks of protest. ~3000 injured ~ 2000 in prison and ~ 10 dead since the protests started. Draconian legislation on the rights to demonstrate planned.
Macron is not really in a position to lecture the UK ... or even Venezuela.
Nonsense. Some of us take a less cramped view of God’s own county.
I'm really proud of my Yorkshire accent.
Means I drop the c-bomb every time I say can't.
Now explain how you manage to do the same with the word 'Corbyn'.
I don't like to use the c-word in general, says more about the person saying it than the person it is aimed at.
Although the last person I called the c-word was Mark Reckless, when I said 'I can't call him a c*** but he's a f*cking c*nt, who deserves a red hot poker up his arse'.
I still think the most effective use of the f-word is the first few minutes of Four Weddings and a Funeral. Each of those words means something different - and we understand every one of them. Swearing as an art form.
Glengarry Glen Ross. I used to know the Al Pacino speech off by heart
Spotted in the Sunday Times that the EY Item Club are forecasting growth of 0.7% this year and 0.6% next year if we leave with no deal. That does not sound like much of an economic catastrophe. My apologies if this has been covered on here earlier today.
Comments
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/eu-referendum
Moreover, there has been a clear swing in post-referendum polling away from Leave.
The most common erroneous assumption on PB is that because the polls were out by X% in one direction last time, they could be out by the same amount in the same direction the next time. Whereas it is more common for pollsters to over-compensate for previous error and to actually be out in the opposite direction next time around.
If, hypothetically, there were a straight re-run of the 2016 referendum later this year then we might well see a Remain victory, although I think that blunt instrument surveys about whether the original decision was right or wrong may mask a significant body of opinion of the middling sort: that which backed Remain in 2016 and thinks that quitting the EU isn't a very good idea, but would now vote Leave just because they believe that the original result should be respected - and that asking the same question over and over again until Parliament gets the result that it wants is both tin-eared and very impertinent.
But we fucked it. Much like we fucked failing to create a capital fund based on oil revenue and rather spunked it on current account spending (and just in case you think I'm gonna blame Thatcher for that, whilst she could have reversed the decision, it was the Labour government who decided to explicitly not create a capital fund - I think it was Tony Benn who wrote about his grave disappointment at the decision).
Unlike during the referendum, the polls are giving a consistent message and indeed show a swing to Remain since. It seems perfectly reasonable to assume Leavers are currently in a minority, certainly you cannot proceed, as you originally did, on the basis that the currently Leave-inclined are the key demographic now.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/tory-mps-election-whatsapp-panic
The Conservatives will own a nightmare Brexit and it will not just be Remain voters who will take their revenge on the Tory party. It will also be Leave voters. If Brexit goes horribly wrong, Leave voters are not going to find fault with themselves for being suckered by a bogus prospectus, unrealisable promises and a red bus emblazoned with a lie. Leave voters are going to blame the Tories for betraying them.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/03/tories-should-heed-oliver-letwin-wont-be-forgiven-no-deal-brexit
Tricky things, analogies.
Stating that people would now vote to stay in the EU because the published results of some YouGov surveys says that they would isn't a statement of fact, and nor is claiming that there's any kind of strong likelihood that they would do so. Taking these polls at face value is merely an instance of confirmation bias. We can speculate on the outcome of referendum mark 2, but nobody (on either side of the argument, or stuck in the middle and willing it to go away) has the faintest idea what would actually happen.
Soft twats with helmets and padding what the fuck?
Grow a pair you big Jessie Yank tossers.
Also how can they call it football if they don't use their feet?
What's the padding for? I mean is it a tribute to Joan Collins/Dynasty?
Would Remain voters or Leave voters be most motivated to turn out and vote?
/pedant
Only joking. I've been Brexi-hoarding Duerr's (which is unaccountably cheaper than the sugary jelly which passes for Robertson's Marmalade) just in case.
American Football is nearly as bad as Rugby League and their big girl's blouse fifth tackle rule.
I really also dislike the franchise aspect and the uprooting of teams.
I am also quite seriously starting to build up reserves of tins, rice and pasta, starting tomorrow. Leaver bravado about Project Fear is starting to sound a bit hollow.
But they will be utilising the new EU Japan trade agreement to import their X Trail model into the EU from Japan now that prohibitive EU import tariffs on cars are to be reduced.
Given not a single quality poll anywhere for 18 months has shown majority support for Leave suggests currently that is no longer the “ will of the people “ !
The debate around what would happen at the end of a new ref campaign is irrelevant . Polling takes a snapshot of opinion but it’s clear that there has been a change . Most of this is from new voters and higher turnout from those who preferred Remain.
A myth peddled by the media is that the Leave vote was a shock , that the polling was way off . This is totally discredited by the polls themselves . Numerous polls had Leave ahead .
On WTO terms Japanese Nissans will be tarrif free into the EU, Sunderland ones at 10%.
Think of it like chess, with violence.
Do you have a link for that assertion?
This was an extra. No jobs are to go, but no new ones are being created where they had been promised.
That's not to say the long term future of the plant is certain.
I'm a bit cosmopolitan for Yorkshire.
There have been polls by Com Res, Opinium, Deltapoll, and Survation that have put Leave ahead.
Swearing in French, it's like wiping your arse with silk.
If you're a Leaver and don't believe that there will significant delays at customs points then the current stockpiling of food will reduce demand in the short term whilst supply will remain the same. Prices go down.
If you're a Remainer and believe that the economy will tank post-Brexit and demand will collapse, in part due to all the migrant workers leaving the UK. Prices go down.
Means I drop the c-bomb every time I say can't.
I could just merder a good line in swearing over the current impasse in Parliament.
How does SeanT do it (that is, post vaguely coherently while pissed)?
https://twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/1092128988795936773
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1092105377599156226
Old Andra is certainly doing his bit to keep twitter boorish.
Although the last person I called the c-word was Mark Reckless, when I said 'I can't call him a c*** but he's a f*cking c*nt, who deserves a red hot poker up his arse'.
You should have your seedlings in for Toms, pots and salad leaves plus other veggies you like. Bought your polytunnels, rotovated the lawn and covered it in cow shit.
That plus beef and pork in the freezer and a good stock of olive oil is the answer if you are a believer.
Pasta, rice and tinned stuff will be freely available, it does not rot at the port.
Pass the port, somebody.
However, Brady is about done at 41 years old!!!, and they have no up and coming QB. Gronk is being held together with duck tape every game and can only really make an impact on a handful of occasions.
This might be it for a number of years.
The approach by the ERG will see at least one of the following.
1) Delay in leaving
2) Revocation of Article 50
3) The UK rejoining the EU after a Brexit related economic slump
The other two would be unexpected, although 3 can't be ruled out.
I suspect the Scots will bottle it again.
Back of their mind will be if leaving a near 50 year old trade union is difficult it will be even harder to leave a 300 year old political and economic union.
As for Northern Ireland, who knows, the DUP are crazy.
I think the more intelligent leavers would probably accept that if we leave with no deal, produce will be rotting at the ports. The "project fear" claim was that the danger of a no deal exit was negligible, not that if it happened it would be harmless.
When I was a lad in the 1980s and playing RU, a few of us were invited down to American Football training on Sunday morning to try it out. Not very impressed. It took ages to get the protection on and I scored a touchdown by following a large black lad who trampled a path for me to score.
We tried the same tactic next time, but the defence had wised up. Large black lad was flattened and I followed suit. Only my pride hurt, though. Too much chess and not enough real violence.
Macron is not really in a position to lecture the UK ... or even Venezuela.