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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » I’m not convinced the Tories are going to let TMay fight a sec

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited February 4 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » I’m not convinced the Tories are going to let TMay fight a second general election as party and PM

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  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,439
    Premier
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    Deuxieme
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,439
    Troisieme
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,439
    Quatrieme
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 834
    FPT

    Nigelb said:

    An interesting bit of research:
    http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/106313/
    Did austerity cause Brexit? This paper shows that the rise of popular support for the UK Independence Party (UKIP), as the single most important correlate of the subsequent Leave vote in the 2016 European Union (EU) referendum, along with broader measures of political dissatisfaction, are strongly and causally associated with an individual’s or an area’s exposure to austerity since 2010. In addition to exploiting data from the population of all electoral been for a range of austerity-induced welfare reforms. Further, auxiliary results suggest that the welfare reforms activated existing underlying economic grievances that have broader origins than what the current literature on Brexit suggests. Up until 2010, the UK’s welfare state evened out growing income differences across the skill divide through transfer payments. This pattern markedly stops from 2010 onwards as austerity started to bite.

    No, it didn't - but you can expect this to become another meme that hard line remainers will run with. Trivial and very superficial discussion from another othewise fairly well-regarded university. Mind you I was fairly revolted by their links with the New Labour project.
    Quite. Outside of local authorities there was little to no austerity, and in welfare payments there was cpi link for the first few years, when everyone else was getting pay freezes. Even working tax credits that has been ramped up under the last government far greater than originally intended were fully maintained.

    We’ve only really seen a squeeze in welfare from about 2014 onwards. Pushing down the local housing allowances, the benefit cap so a family on benefits won’t be better off than the average household income, and the ‘bedroom tax’.

    The Lha changes, and the benefit cap would have disproportionately hit those areas with high house prices, which would,not have been in leave areas.

    In Cumbria the areas that voted the most to leave have probably not suffered disproportionately in any measurable way due to austerity.

    The link is created by the removal of a lot of top up funds given to poorer councils around the country, many of these were in fact temporary.

    This is an example:
    http://data.parliament.uk/DepositedPapers/Files/DEP2009-2109/DEP2009-2109.doc

    So it is a correlation with those areas of the country that have not done particularly well, or just not as well as other more dynamic areas. Mostly a north south thing, but that hides some of the substantial economic gains of the northern cities like Manchester, Leeds and Newcastle.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 24,355
    Is that headline supposed to read "as party leader"?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 7,902

    Is that headline supposed to read "as party leader"?

    "children's party entertainer"
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 24,125
    I agree with Mike. It's important to note that unlike in the past, Prime Ministers can't just call general elections early. They now need to get Parliament's approval and therefore that of the Cabinet.

    Theresa May has already committed in public to not fighting the next general election. She gave that commitment in order to win the party vote of confidence in her in December. The Cabinet will surely hold her to that.

    Paradoxically, the only way that Theresa May might get to fight another general election is if she loses a Parliamentary vote of no confidence in circumstances where she is trying to win it - most obviously, if the Deal passes and then the DUP vote her down. Even then I expect that someone else might well cobble together a coalition before the Parliamentary self-destruct countdown is completed.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,249
    PB’s 6,666th post. The number of the beast writ large!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 24,355
    I suspect Theresa May will want to hang around as long as she can after getting any deal for fear that "her legacy" will be trashed by people realising what a shit deal it was - and trying to walk away from elements of it.

    No way can May remain as PM if she oversees a No Deal Brexit.

    No way can May remain as PM while we negotiate the trade deal with the EU.

    She has proven herself inept at protecting the party's best interests. She has proven herself inept at protecting the nation's best interests. On either metric, she should lose her job.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,497

    I agree with Mike. It's important to note that unlike in the past, Prime Ministers can't just call general elections early. They now need to get Parliament's approval and therefore that of the Cabinet.

    Theresa May has already committed in public to not fighting the next general election. She gave that commitment in order to win the party vote of confidence in her in December. The Cabinet will surely hold her to that.

    Paradoxically, the only way that Theresa May might get to fight another general election is if she loses a Parliamentary vote of no confidence in circumstances where she is trying to win it - most obviously, if the Deal passes and then the DUP vote her down. Even then I expect that someone else might well cobble together a coalition before the Parliamentary self-destruct countdown is completed.

    So those who don’t want to see Mrs May fight another election, need to put Arlene Foster on a plane to Brussels to re-negotiate the deal?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 2,341
    felix said:

    I'm confident that if the ERG continue to block the deal around 40/50 Tory MPs will vote to block or delay Brexit . The stakes for No Deal are too high.

    I'm sure a request to the EU to extend just because there is continued deadlock in Parliament is the least likely kind of request to succeed.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,596
    FPT: Mr. Sandpit, interesting. I wonder if we could see a Brawn/Toyota style double diffuser scenario.

    Mr. Anazina, I wouldn't worry. The number's meant to be 606, a reference to Nero using some sort of alphanumeric. But they got it wrong, either originally or in translation, and it's been known as 666 ever since.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 10,822
    edited February 4
    Believing the Tories lost the election because of bad campaigning is a marketing claim too far.

    She lost the election because she was seen to be a fanatical Leaver.

    The only way Tory and neutral Remainers could register their disgust was to vote Corbyn.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,497

    FPT: Mr. Sandpit, interesting. I wonder if we could see a Brawn/Toyota style double diffuser scenario.
    .

    In theory the rules are now tight enough to avoid anyone gaining a massive advantage for their considerable investment in new aero parts, but in practice some teams are already saying they have as much downforce now as they did at the start of last season with the old regs. Hopefully someone can shake the field up, it’s quite possible that the new Red Bull is going to be very quick but also hellishly unreliable.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,497
    Roger said:

    Believing the Tories lost the election because of bad campaigning is a marketing claim too far.

    She lost the election because she was seen to be a fanatical Leaver.

    The only way Tory and neutral Remainers could register their disgust was to vote Corbyn.

    So now that Corbyn has shown himself to be a Leaver, who do the Remainers vote for next time?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,596
    Mr. Sandpit, it'd suit me if Gasly were 1st or 2nd in the first race.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 26,978

    I suspect Theresa May will want to hang around as long as she can after getting any deal for fear that "her legacy" will be trashed by people realising what a shit deal it was - and trying to walk away from elements of it.

    She's like a rogue trader who can never go on holiday for fear their elaborate schemes will unravel.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 10,822
    edited February 4
    Sandpit said:

    Roger said:

    Believing the Tories lost the election because of bad campaigning is a marketing claim too far.

    She lost the election because she was seen to be a fanatical Leaver.

    The only way Tory and neutral Remainers could register their disgust was to vote Corbyn.

    So now that Corbyn has shown himself to be a Leaver, who do the Remainers vote for next time?
    If you want my unreliable opinion; take Brexit out of the equation and it'll be a Tory landslide*. I can't see any desire to go back to the '70s and be governed by McClusky and co.

    *Assuming the Tories aren't led by Boris or anyone who looks or sounds like him.
  • She should call it the crush the saboteurs (ERG) election.

    She’d win a landslide.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 10,601
    Does the government believe its own propaganda? If Brexit will be economically damaging then the Cabinet and CCHQ might be persuaded that it is best to have a general election as soon as possible after Brexit, while it has a poll lead (other polls are available) and when any border queues or shortages can be painted as teething troubles, before prolonged disruption or recession sees the Conservatives locked out of office for a generation like after the ERM debacle. It is not as if the almost septuagenarian bogeyman Jeremy Corbyn will be around forever.

    That is why there will be an election this year.

    Whether Mrs May is party leader is a separate question. Her promise to step down beforehand seemed to relate, after checking the small print, to the 2022 election. She is safe from a party vonc but the Cabinet might attempt to force her out, though its leverage is limited.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 11,043
    notme2 said:

    FPT

    Nigelb said:

    An interesting bit of research:
    http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/106313/
    Did austerity cause Brexit? This paper shows that the rise of popular support for the UK Independence Party (UKIP), as the single most important correlate of the subsequent Leave vote in the 2016 European Union (EU) referendum, along with broader measures of political dissatisfaction, are strongly and causally associated with an individual’s or an area’s exposure to austerity since 2010. In addition to exploiting data from the population of all electoral been for a range of austerity-induced welfare reforms. Further, auxiliary results suggest that the welfare reforms activated existing underlying economic grievances that have broader origins than what the current literature on Brexit suggests. Up until 2010, the UK’s welfare state evened out growing income differences across the skill divide through transfer payments. This pattern markedly stops from 2010 onwards as austerity started to bite.

    No, it didn't - but you can expect this to become another meme that hard line remainers will run with. Trivial and very superficial discussion from another othewise fairly well-regarded university. Mind you I was fairly revolted by their links with the New Labour project.
    Quite. Outside of local authorities there was little to no austerity, and in welfare payments there was cpi link for the first few years, when everyone else was getting pay freezes. Even working tax credits that has been ramped up under the last government far greater than originally intended were fully maintained.

    We’ve only really seen a squeeze in welfare from about 2014 onwards. Pushing down the local housing allowances, the benefit cap so a family on benefits won’t be better off than the average household income, and the ‘bedroom tax’.

    The Lha changes, and the benefit cap would have disproportionately hit those areas with high house prices, which would,not have been in leave areas.

    In Cumbria the areas that voted the most to leave have probably not suffered disproportionately in any measurable way due to austerity.

    The link is created by the removal of a lot of top up funds given to poorer councils around the country, many of these were in fact temporary.

    This is an example:
    http://data.parliament.uk/DepositedPapers/Files/DEP2009-2109/DEP2009-2109.doc

    So it is a correlation with those areas of the country that have not done particularly well, or just not as well as other more dynamic areas. Mostly a north south thing, but that hides some of the substantial economic gains of the northern cities like Manchester, Leeds and Newcastle.
    Did you read the paper, as opposed to the abstract ?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 29,338
    Once again, those bar charts proving conclusively that Labour won GE2017!

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,497

    Mr. Sandpit, it'd suit me if Gasly were 1st or 2nd in the first race.

    That’s a good call. What odds did you get? He could be good value to beat his quick but unreliable team mate this year.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 24,355
    Roger said:

    Believing the Tories lost the election because of bad campaigning is a marketing claim too far.

    She lost the election because she was seen to be a fanatical Leaver.

    The only way Tory and neutral Remainers could register their disgust was to vote Corbyn.

    I don't think anyone, anywhere has seen May as a fanatical leaver!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 17,404

    Roger said:

    Believing the Tories lost the election because of bad campaigning is a marketing claim too far.

    She lost the election because she was seen to be a fanatical Leaver.

    The only way Tory and neutral Remainers could register their disgust was to vote Corbyn.

    I don't think anyone, anywhere has seen May as a fanatical leaver!
    She wanted an increased majority in 2017 to implement a hard brexit.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,497

    Does the government believe its own propaganda? If Brexit will be economically damaging then the Cabinet and CCHQ might be persuaded that it is best to have a general election as soon as possible after Brexit, while it has a poll lead (other polls are available) and when any border queues or shortages can be painted as teething troubles, before prolonged disruption or recession sees the Conservatives locked out of office for a generation like after the ERM debacle. It is not as if the almost septuagenarian bogeyman Jeremy Corbyn will be around forever.

    That is why there will be an election this year.

    Whether Mrs May is party leader is a separate question. Her promise to step down beforehand seemed to relate, after checking the small print, to the 2022 election. She is safe from a party vonc but the Cabinet might attempt to force her out, though its leverage is limited.

    It could also be the other way around, with a change of PM over the summer and the new incumbent going to the people in the autumn.

    I’m on ‘19 and ‘22 in this market, so knowing my luck it will be spring next year.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 26,978
    TOPPING said:

    Roger said:

    Believing the Tories lost the election because of bad campaigning is a marketing claim too far.

    She lost the election because she was seen to be a fanatical Leaver.

    The only way Tory and neutral Remainers could register their disgust was to vote Corbyn.

    I don't think anyone, anywhere has seen May as a fanatical leaver!
    She wanted an increased majority in 2017 to implement a hard brexit.
    If she really wanted a hard Brexit, adopting a UK-wide negotiating approach to the future trade deal never made any sense. She should have said from the outset that Northern Ireland would need special status.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 1,412

    Roger said:

    Believing the Tories lost the election because of bad campaigning is a marketing claim too far.

    She lost the election because she was seen to be a fanatical Leaver.

    The only way Tory and neutral Remainers could register their disgust was to vote Corbyn.

    I don't think anyone, anywhere has seen May as a fanatical leaver!
    Im not sure! I’m sure Roger is a remainer / people vote type, and any kind of Brexit to them would be fanatical / ideological etc. There are clearly a number of people from Lib Dem /Green / Euro Tories who his statement could apply to. I don5 think May is a fanatical leaver- she wants to respect the referendum result and leave, yet leave in the softest possible manner hence her red lines. She has ridden two horses as much as Corbyn, but she rode two horses from the same team.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 16,806
    typo in lead - beadlock
  • ChrisChris Posts: 2,341

    Does the government believe its own propaganda? If Brexit will be economically damaging then the Cabinet and CCHQ might be persuaded that it is best to have a general election as soon as possible after Brexit, while it has a poll lead (other polls are available) and when any border queues or shortages can be painted as teething troubles, before prolonged disruption or recession sees the Conservatives locked out of office for a generation like after the ERM debacle. It is not as if the almost septuagenarian bogeyman Jeremy Corbyn will be around forever.

    That is why there will be an election this year.

    Whether Mrs May is party leader is a separate question. Her promise to step down beforehand seemed to relate, after checking the small print, to the 2022 election. She is safe from a party vonc but the Cabinet might attempt to force her out, though its leverage is limited.

    Perhaps a khaki election on 4 April?
  • eekeek Posts: 3,387

    She should call it the crush the saboteurs (ERG) election.

    She’d win a landslide.

    So JRG and co would not be on the roster of Tory candidates? As unless she removes them that argument simply wouldn't work.

    Equally would any party stand on the basis of implementing May's deal - it's why I don't see a general election and no party has a clue what to put in the Europe slot on their manifesto...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 29,338
    IanB2 said:

    typo in lead - beadlock

    Beadlock is, er, where you're making something from, um, beads and then you find to your horror that, er, you've run out of beads!
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 1,412
    TOPPING said:

    Roger said:

    Believing the Tories lost the election because of bad campaigning is a marketing claim too far.

    She lost the election because she was seen to be a fanatical Leaver.

    The only way Tory and neutral Remainers could register their disgust was to vote Corbyn.

    I don't think anyone, anywhere has seen May as a fanatical leaver!
    She wanted an increased majority in 2017 to implement a hard brexit.
    No she said she wanted an increased majority to implement Brexit - this was painted successfully by her opponents as she wanted a hard Brexit, but really she wants to leave, but leave with as soft a Brexit as possible
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 16,806

    I suspect Theresa May will want to hang around as long as she can after getting any deal for fear that "her legacy" will be trashed by people realising what a shit deal it was - and trying to walk away from elements of it.

    No way can May remain as PM if she oversees a No Deal Brexit.

    No way can May remain as PM while we negotiate the trade deal with the EU.

    She has proven herself inept at protecting the party's best interests. She has proven herself inept at protecting the nation's best interests. On either metric, she should lose her job.

    Except that you could have said the same at a few crisis points already during her tenure. And yet here she is, clinging on. Bottom line is that Tory MPs don't want Boris.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 2,441
    TOPPING said:

    Roger said:

    Believing the Tories lost the election because of bad campaigning is a marketing claim too far.

    She lost the election because she was seen to be a fanatical Leaver.

    The only way Tory and neutral Remainers could register their disgust was to vote Corbyn.

    I don't think anyone, anywhere has seen May as a fanatical leaver!
    She wanted an increased majority in 2017 to implement a hard brexit.
    She realised (correctly) she needed an increased majority in 2017 to implement any kind of Brexit.

    Some voters took fright on realising that the polls were pointing to an enormous Tory majority, and that this might indeed result in a paramilitary Brexit.

    May’s lack of specificity enabled others to define her Brexit for her.

    She should of course have gone to the polls with a much more specific Brexit (though then Tory unity would have crumpled).
  • RogerRoger Posts: 10,822
    IanB2 said:

    typo in lead - beadlock

    That's not a typo it's quirky.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 17,404

    TOPPING said:

    Roger said:

    Believing the Tories lost the election because of bad campaigning is a marketing claim too far.

    She lost the election because she was seen to be a fanatical Leaver.

    The only way Tory and neutral Remainers could register their disgust was to vote Corbyn.

    I don't think anyone, anywhere has seen May as a fanatical leaver!
    She wanted an increased majority in 2017 to implement a hard brexit.
    No she said she wanted an increased majority to implement Brexit - this was painted successfully by her opponents as she wanted a hard Brexit, but really she wants to leave, but leave with as soft a Brexit as possible
    I can absolutely assure you that this was not the case. On the doorstep the line was give her a big majority to face down the hardliners. In actual fact she wanted to pursue a hard line brexit. What would, @williamglenn, this have meant for NI? She would have faced that hurdle when she came to it.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 7,902

    TOPPING said:

    Roger said:

    Believing the Tories lost the election because of bad campaigning is a marketing claim too far.

    She lost the election because she was seen to be a fanatical Leaver.

    The only way Tory and neutral Remainers could register their disgust was to vote Corbyn.

    I don't think anyone, anywhere has seen May as a fanatical leaver!
    She wanted an increased majority in 2017 to implement a hard brexit.
    No she said she wanted an increased majority to implement Brexit - this was painted successfully by her opponents as she wanted a hard Brexit, but really she wants to leave, but leave with as soft a Brexit as possible
    If she wants as soft a Brexit as possible she should be taking Starmer with her to Brussels.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 1,462
    IanB2 said:

    typo in lead - beadlock

    Mike always includes typos in his posts - it's part of his charm.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 24,355

    TOPPING said:

    Roger said:

    Believing the Tories lost the election because of bad campaigning is a marketing claim too far.

    She lost the election because she was seen to be a fanatical Leaver.

    The only way Tory and neutral Remainers could register their disgust was to vote Corbyn.

    I don't think anyone, anywhere has seen May as a fanatical leaver!
    She wanted an increased majority in 2017 to implement a hard brexit.
    No she said she wanted an increased majority to implement Brexit - this was painted successfully by her opponents as she wanted a hard Brexit, but really she wants to leave, but leave with as soft a Brexit as possible
    If she wants as soft a Brexit as possible she should be taking Starmer with her to Brussels.
    Starmer would enjoy the trip.

    He doesn't get out much these days.....
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 2,441
    On topic, I think Mike is right. May will not be allowed to fight another election.

    I suspect May’s deal will ultimately pass, and then May will be removed.

    She will be the scapegoat.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 1,412
    Roger said:

    Sandpit said:

    Roger said:

    Believing the Tories lost the election because of bad campaigning is a marketing claim too far.

    She lost the election because she was seen to be a fanatical Leaver.

    The only way Tory and neutral Remainers could register their disgust was to vote Corbyn.

    So now that Corbyn has shown himself to be a Leaver, who do the Remainers vote for next time?
    If you want my unreliable opinion; take Brexit out of the equation and it'll be a Tory landslide*. I can't see any desire to go back to the '70s and be governed by McClusky and co.

    *Assuming the Tories aren't led by Boris or anyone who looks or sounds like him.
    What about Jo Johnson? He is pro Europe, and literally looks like a deflated Boris. Could he get his brothers backing?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 13,985

    I suspect Theresa May will want to hang around as long as she can after getting any deal for fear that "her legacy" will be trashed by people realising what a shit deal it was - and trying to walk away from elements of it.

    She's like a rogue trader who can never go on holiday for fear their elaborate schemes will unravel.
    Except without the coke & the prostitutes.

    Presumably.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 10,822

    Roger said:

    Believing the Tories lost the election because of bad campaigning is a marketing claim too far.

    She lost the election because she was seen to be a fanatical Leaver.

    The only way Tory and neutral Remainers could register their disgust was to vote Corbyn.

    I don't think anyone, anywhere has seen May as a fanatical leaver!
    The only message that was heard from her campaign was "BREXIT MEANS BREXIT", Day after miserable day. Week after miserable week....

    That sounded like fanaticism.

  • ChrisChris Posts: 2,341

    I suspect Theresa May will want to hang around as long as she can after getting any deal for fear that "her legacy" will be trashed by people realising what a shit deal it was - and trying to walk away from elements of it.

    She's like a rogue trader who can never go on holiday for fear their elaborate schemes will unravel.
    Except without the coke & the prostitutes.

    Presumably.
    And without any elaborate schemes.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 1,412

    TOPPING said:

    Roger said:

    Believing the Tories lost the election because of bad campaigning is a marketing claim too far.

    She lost the election because she was seen to be a fanatical Leaver.

    The only way Tory and neutral Remainers could register their disgust was to vote Corbyn.

    I don't think anyone, anywhere has seen May as a fanatical leaver!
    She wanted an increased majority in 2017 to implement a hard brexit.
    No she said she wanted an increased majority to implement Brexit - this was painted successfully by her opponents as she wanted a hard Brexit, but really she wants to leave, but leave with as soft a Brexit as possible
    If she wants as soft a Brexit as possible she should be taking Starmer with her to Brussels.
    But she actually wants to respect the vote and leave, not stay in by a back door. Starmer is increasingly irrelevant like the Tory Brexit Secretary. The only opinion that matters is the leader.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 24,355
    Chris said:

    Does the government believe its own propaganda? If Brexit will be economically damaging then the Cabinet and CCHQ might be persuaded that it is best to have a general election as soon as possible after Brexit, while it has a poll lead (other polls are available) and when any border queues or shortages can be painted as teething troubles, before prolonged disruption or recession sees the Conservatives locked out of office for a generation like after the ERM debacle. It is not as if the almost septuagenarian bogeyman Jeremy Corbyn will be around forever.

    That is why there will be an election this year.

    Whether Mrs May is party leader is a separate question. Her promise to step down beforehand seemed to relate, after checking the small print, to the 2022 election. She is safe from a party vonc but the Cabinet might attempt to force her out, though its leverage is limited.

    Perhaps a khaki election on 4 April?
    If May's still there, it risks being another cacky election....
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 1,412
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Believing the Tories lost the election because of bad campaigning is a marketing claim too far.

    She lost the election because she was seen to be a fanatical Leaver.

    The only way Tory and neutral Remainers could register their disgust was to vote Corbyn.

    I don't think anyone, anywhere has seen May as a fanatical leaver!
    The only message that was heard from her campaign was "BREXIT MEANS BREXIT", Day after miserable day. Week after miserable week....

    That sounded like fanaticism.

    Or it was as vague as possible to get support but not commit to something hardline. May has consistently shown in her actions she is seeking as soft a Brexit as possible, whilst leaving. This would be a difficult task in the best of times, but look at who is opposing in her own party - those who want to stay in EU, and those who want a hard Brexit.

  • TheAncientMarinerTheAncientMariner Posts: 227
    edited February 4
    _Anazina_ said:

    PB’s 6,666th post. The number of the beast writ large!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/616_(number) (need to add the "(_number)" to the url
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 11,043

    Roger said:

    Believing the Tories lost the election because of bad campaigning is a marketing claim too far.

    She lost the election because she was seen to be a fanatical Leaver.

    The only way Tory and neutral Remainers could register their disgust was to vote Corbyn.

    I don't think anyone, anywhere has seen May as a fanatical leaver!
    Im not sure! I’m sure Roger is a remainer / people vote type, and any kind of Brexit to them would be fanatical / ideological etc. There are clearly a number of people from Lib Dem /Green / Euro Tories who his statement could apply to. I don5 think May is a fanatical leaver- she wants to respect the referendum result and leave, yet leave in the softest possible manner hence her red lines. She has ridden two horses as much as Corbyn, but she rode two horses from the same team.
    Since the vote (and notably, not before it), "respect the referendum" has been defined as hard Brexit.
    Otherwise I agree with your analysis; May is essentially trying to pretend to deliver both hard and soft Brexit simultaneously. It won't work.

    As today's Guardian puts it -
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/03/brexit-united-tory-party-stockpiling-conservatives-europe
    "An orderly Brexit depends on a united Tory party. So start stockpiling now"
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 10,601
    Sandpit said:

    Does the government believe its own propaganda? If Brexit will be economically damaging then the Cabinet and CCHQ might be persuaded that it is best to have a general election as soon as possible after Brexit, while it has a poll lead (other polls are available) and when any border queues or shortages can be painted as teething troubles, before prolonged disruption or recession sees the Conservatives locked out of office for a generation like after the ERM debacle. It is not as if the almost septuagenarian bogeyman Jeremy Corbyn will be around forever.

    That is why there will be an election this year.

    Whether Mrs May is party leader is a separate question. Her promise to step down beforehand seemed to relate, after checking the small print, to the 2022 election. She is safe from a party vonc but the Cabinet might attempt to force her out, though its leverage is limited.

    It could also be the other way around, with a change of PM over the summer and the new incumbent going to the people in the autumn.

    I’m on ‘19 and ‘22 in this market, so knowing my luck it will be spring next year.
    Yes, you are right, it could well be that Theresa May will step down immediately after Brexit so that the Conservatives will enjoy a new leader bounce in a spring election. Either way, I do expect an election this year.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 1,412
    On topic I see the story of an election as a false flag exercise

    - one of Labours weakest points is re-election as they have impending issues around deselection of moderate MPs, there would be pressure to crystallise an approach to Brexit, there are unrealistic expectations on the ability of the campaign to swing opinion.
    - May needs party discipline on her own side and the two threat of an election ties her own side closer
    - as we found out in 2017 it might not lead to a conclusive result
    - May normally prevaricates but when she didn’t in 17 it went wrong

    For the above reasons my sense is that there will be an election next year after a new Tory leader is installed, or in 22, But the uncertainty is so great I would not put money on the Market.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 13,985
    edited February 4
    The Tory party chairman seems to have his priorities right at this moment of crisis for the country.

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 7,902
    Nigelb said:

    Roger said:

    Believing the Tories lost the election because of bad campaigning is a marketing claim too far.

    She lost the election because she was seen to be a fanatical Leaver.

    The only way Tory and neutral Remainers could register their disgust was to vote Corbyn.

    I don't think anyone, anywhere has seen May as a fanatical leaver!
    Im not sure! I’m sure Roger is a remainer / people vote type, and any kind of Brexit to them would be fanatical / ideological etc. There are clearly a number of people from Lib Dem /Green / Euro Tories who his statement could apply to. I don5 think May is a fanatical leaver- she wants to respect the referendum result and leave, yet leave in the softest possible manner hence her red lines. She has ridden two horses as much as Corbyn, but she rode two horses from the same team.
    Since the vote (and notably, not before it), "respect the referendum" has been defined as hard Brexit.
    Otherwise I agree with your analysis; May is essentially trying to pretend to deliver both hard and soft Brexit simultaneously. It won't work.

    As today's Guardian puts it -
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/03/brexit-united-tory-party-stockpiling-conservatives-europe
    "An orderly Brexit depends on a united Tory party. So start stockpiling now"
    I've been trying to stockpile "Firsts" on PB threads, but with only limited success.

    Anyway, I enjoy tinned fish, baked beans and corned beef.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 24,125

    The Tory party chairman seems to have his priorities right at this moment of crisis for the country.

    That's one way to reach parts of the electorate that are usually left untouched by politicians.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 13,985
    edited February 4

    Nigelb said:

    Roger said:

    Believing the Tories lost the election because of bad campaigning is a marketing claim too far.

    She lost the election because she was seen to be a fanatical Leaver.

    The only way Tory and neutral Remainers could register their disgust was to vote Corbyn.

    I don't think anyone, anywhere has seen May as a fanatical leaver!
    Im not sure! I’m sure Roger is a remainer / people vote type, and any kind of Brexit to them would be fanatical / ideological etc. There are clearly a number of people from Lib Dem /Green / Euro Tories who his statement could apply to. I don5 think May is a fanatical leaver- she wants to respect the referendum result and leave, yet leave in the softest possible manner hence her red lines. She has ridden two horses as much as Corbyn, but she rode two horses from the same team.
    Since the vote (and notably, not before it), "respect the referendum" has been defined as hard Brexit.
    Otherwise I agree with your analysis; May is essentially trying to pretend to deliver both hard and soft Brexit simultaneously. It won't work.

    As today's Guardian puts it -
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/03/brexit-united-tory-party-stockpiling-conservatives-europe
    "An orderly Brexit depends on a united Tory party. So start stockpiling now"
    I've been trying to stockpile "Firsts" on PB threads, but with only limited success.

    Anyway, I enjoy tinned fish, baked beans and corned beef.
    No need for tinned fish, we'll have a surfeit of the fresh stuff. In fact we may need a messiah to do the feeding of the 5000 in reverse for the fishies, though rotting on the quayside might do the job.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 1,412
    Nigelb said:

    Roger said:

    Believing the Tories lost the election because of bad campaigning is a marketing claim too far.

    She lost the election because she was seen to be a fanatical Leaver.

    The only way Tory and neutral Remainers could register their disgust was to vote Corbyn.

    I don't think anyone, anywhere has seen May as a fanatical leaver!
    Im not sure! I’m sure Roger is a remainer / people vote type, and any kind of Brexit to them would be fanatical / ideological etc. There are clearly a number of people from Lib Dem /Green / Euro Tories who his statement could apply to. I don5 think May is a fanatical leaver- she wants to respect the referendum result and leave, yet leave in the softest possible manner hence her red lines. She has ridden two horses as much as Corbyn, but she rode two horses from the same team.
    Since the vote (and notably, not before it), "respect the referendum" has been defined as hard Brexit.
    Otherwise I agree with your analysis; May is essentially trying to pretend to deliver both hard and soft Brexit simultaneously. It won't work.

    As today's Guardian puts it -
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/03/brexit-united-tory-party-stockpiling-conservatives-europe
    "An orderly Brexit depends on a united Tory party. So start stockpiling now"
    There is the possibility though that the Malthouse compromise will come up with something that will pass, the EU see it as essentially no worse than the Backstop, which has significant advantages for U.K. and particularly NI, and both sides get it over and done with in order to preserve everyone’s sanity. Over Brexit both parties have problems, but only the Tories have the ability to deliver something and move on. Outside of Brexit they are more unified, and that should be their objective - put Labour on the back foot. I’m not sure they are intelligent enough to do that, but is seems like a worthwhile strategy for them
  • felixfelix Posts: 8,514
    Chris said:

    felix said:

    I'm confident that if the ERG continue to block the deal around 40/50 Tory MPs will vote to block or delay Brexit . The stakes for No Deal are too high.

    I'm sure a request to the EU to extend just because there is continued deadlock in Parliament is the least likely kind of request to succeed.
    Who said anything about requests - the blocking of no deal can be done unilaterally if needs be.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,497

    Nigelb said:

    Roger said:

    Believing the Tories lost the election because of bad campaigning is a marketing claim too far.

    She lost the election because she was seen to be a fanatical Leaver.

    The only way Tory and neutral Remainers could register their disgust was to vote Corbyn.

    I don't think anyone, anywhere has seen May as a fanatical leaver!
    Im not sure! I’m sure Roger is a remainer / people vote type, and any kind of Brexit to them would be fanatical / ideological etc. There are clearly a number of people from Lib Dem /Green / Euro Tories who his statement could apply to. I don5 think May is a fanatical leaver- she wants to respect the referendum result and leave, yet leave in the softest possible manner hence her red lines. She has ridden two horses as much as Corbyn, but she rode two horses from the same team.
    Since the vote (and notably, not before it), "respect the referendum" has been defined as hard Brexit.
    Otherwise I agree with your analysis; May is essentially trying to pretend to deliver both hard and soft Brexit simultaneously. It won't work.

    As today's Guardian puts it -
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/03/brexit-united-tory-party-stockpiling-conservatives-europe
    "An orderly Brexit depends on a united Tory party. So start stockpiling now"
    There is the possibility though that the Malthouse compromise will come up with something that will pass, the EU see it as essentially no worse than the Backstop, which has significant advantages for U.K. and particularly NI, and both sides get it over and done with in order to preserve everyone’s sanity. Over Brexit both parties have problems, but only the Tories have the ability to deliver something and move on. Outside of Brexit they are more unified, and that should be their objective - put Labour on the back foot. I’m not sure they are intelligent enough to do that, but is seems like a worthwhile strategy for them
    The one thing that they all agree on, from Jacob Rees-Mogg to Dominic Grieve, is the manifest unsuitability of Jeremy Corbyn to be prime minister. Once we leave the EU they will all be singing from the same hymn sheet once again.
  • felixfelix Posts: 8,514
    TOPPING said:

    Roger said:

    Believing the Tories lost the election because of bad campaigning is a marketing claim too far.

    She lost the election because she was seen to be a fanatical Leaver.

    The only way Tory and neutral Remainers could register their disgust was to vote Corbyn.

    I don't think anyone, anywhere has seen May as a fanatical leaver!
    She wanted an increased majority in 2017 to implement a hard brexit.
    Evidence?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 2,341
    edited February 4
    felix said:

    Chris said:

    felix said:

    I'm confident that if the ERG continue to block the deal around 40/50 Tory MPs will vote to block or delay Brexit . The stakes for No Deal are too high.

    I'm sure a request to the EU to extend just because there is continued deadlock in Parliament is the least likely kind of request to succeed.
    Who said anything about requests - the blocking of no deal can be done unilaterally if needs be.
    You referred to blocking or delaying Brexit. Revoking can be done unilaterally, but extending can't.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 2,341

    Nigelb said:

    Roger said:

    Believing the Tories lost the election because of bad campaigning is a marketing claim too far.

    She lost the election because she was seen to be a fanatical Leaver.

    The only way Tory and neutral Remainers could register their disgust was to vote Corbyn.

    I don't think anyone, anywhere has seen May as a fanatical leaver!
    Im not sure! I’m sure Roger is a remainer / people vote type, and any kind of Brexit to them would be fanatical / ideological etc. There are clearly a number of people from Lib Dem /Green / Euro Tories who his statement could apply to. I don5 think May is a fanatical leaver- she wants to respect the referendum result and leave, yet leave in the softest possible manner hence her red lines. She has ridden two horses as much as Corbyn, but she rode two horses from the same team.
    Since the vote (and notably, not before it), "respect the referendum" has been defined as hard Brexit.
    Otherwise I agree with your analysis; May is essentially trying to pretend to deliver both hard and soft Brexit simultaneously. It won't work.

    As today's Guardian puts it -
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/03/brexit-united-tory-party-stockpiling-conservatives-europe
    "An orderly Brexit depends on a united Tory party. So start stockpiling now"
    I've been trying to stockpile "Firsts" on PB threads, but with only limited success.

    Anyway, I enjoy tinned fish, baked beans and corned beef.
    No need for tinned fish, we'll have a surfeit of the fresh stuff. In fact we may need a messiah to do the feeding of the 5000 in reverse for the fishies, though rotting on the quayside might do the job.
    But of course. Concern about food shortages doesn't relate to the long term. It relates to the effect of disruption immediately following a No Deal Brexit.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 10,822

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Believing the Tories lost the election because of bad campaigning is a marketing claim too far.

    She lost the election because she was seen to be a fanatical Leaver.

    The only way Tory and neutral Remainers could register their disgust was to vote Corbyn.

    I don't think anyone, anywhere has seen May as a fanatical leaver!
    The only message that was heard from her campaign was "BREXIT MEANS BREXIT", Day after miserable day. Week after miserable week....

    That sounded like fanaticism.

    Or it was as vague as possible to get support but not commit to something hardline. May has consistently shown in her actions she is seeking as soft a Brexit as possible, whilst leaving. This would be a difficult task in the best of times, but look at who is opposing in her own party - those who want to stay in EU, and those who want a hard Brexit.

    You credit the voting public with too much subtlety. At the time of the last election only a very tiny number knew the difference between a 'soft' or 'hard' Brexit*. 'BREXIT' itself is a word without nuance. It is the sledgehammer of the English language.

  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 9,276
    Scott_P said:
    There is a big difference between a delay once the deal is done and one without a deal.

    One is a road to avoiding a cliffedge Brexit and one is a road to nowhere.

  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 9,276

    _Anazina_ said:

    PB’s 6,666th post. The number of the beast writ large!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/616_(number) (need to add the "(_number)" to the url
    How do you know how many posts there have been?
  • It is rather amusing to see so many conservative mps running around like headless chickens at the thought of a GE
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 2,012
    edited February 4
    There are many ways for a GE to happen in 2019:

    (1) TM calls one to break the impasse in the event of her deal being blocked.
    (2) TM deal passes causing the DUP to withdraw confidence and collapse the government.
    (3) TM deal passes, she steps down after B day, new tory PM calls GE to secure a mandate.
    (4) We slide to no deal causing Grieve faction to resign whip and collapse the government.
    (5) Corbyn installed to deliver BINO, unstable government, does not last long.
    (6) Unity Coalition installed to deliver BINO, unstable government, does not last long.
    (7) Other scenarios that I can't think of right now.

    An election in 2019 is available at 2.7 on Betfair.

    My usual MO for political betting is to put money on things NOT happening (although depending on price obviously) but I am making an exception here. I think the 2.7 is value.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 1,412
    Whilst I Agree with his sentiments, it’s not exactly news that politicians lie. I’m sure the collective memory here could come up with thousands of examples from every party. The only new thing is that where lies were previously spoken and less accountable, they often now end up on Twitter and are recorded.

    My favourite example of this new scrutiny is here

    https://www.businessinsider.com/president-trump-flip-flops-made-from-tweets-2018-12?r=US&IR=T
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 19,136
    Something has changed. Tory policy has reversed since then.
  • It does look as if the EU are standing firm until after the 14th Feb debate and votes in the HOC

    I can see the logic in that and in the meantime we can all look, in despair, at the nonsense that is the 'Malthouse' plan.

    I expect TM will wait until after mid Feb before entering talks in the EU following which she will no doubt re-submit the plan, adjusted or otherwise, and see how many ERG blink and how many labour mps vote for it.

    TM is going to need an extension to A50 at least for 3 months and I expect that request to be made sometime in March

    I expect the deal will go through by the end of June, just before the EU re-convene in July
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 24,355

    It is rather amusing to see so many conservative mps running around like headless chickens at the thought of a GE

    Because they know what a Theresa May-led General Election means for many of them.

    Unemployment.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 19,136

    It is rather amusing to see so many conservative mps running around like headless chickens at the thought of a GE

    You missed the word under May at the end of that sentence.

    If you were a Tory MP in a marginal constituency would you be happy to see May lead the party into an election?

    Worth remembering May only won the confidence vote on an explicit promise that she wouldn't!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 11,440

    It does look as if the EU are standing firm until after the 14th Feb debate and votes in the HOC

    I can see the logic in that and in the meantime we can all look, in despair, at the nonsense that is the 'Malthouse' plan.

    I expect TM will wait until after mid Feb before entering talks in the EU following which she will no doubt re-submit the plan, adjusted or otherwise, and see how many ERG blink and how many labour mps vote for it.

    TM is going to need an extension to A50 at least for 3 months and I expect that request to be made sometime in March

    I expect the deal will go through by the end of June, just before the EU re-convene in July

    Time to go for a #CorbynCustomsUnion
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 24,355
    Chris said:

    Nigelb said:

    Roger said:

    Believing the Tories lost the election because of bad campaigning is a marketing claim too far.

    She lost the election because she was seen to be a fanatical Leaver.

    The only way Tory and neutral Remainers could register their disgust was to vote Corbyn.

    I don't think anyone, anywhere has seen May as a fanatical leaver!
    Im not sure! I’m sure Roger is a remainer / people vote type, and any kind of Brexit to them would be fanatical / ideological etc. There are clearly a number of people from Lib Dem /Green / Euro Tories who his statement could apply to. I don5 think May is a fanatical leaver- she wants to respect the referendum result and leave, yet leave in the softest possible manner hence her red lines. She has ridden two horses as much as Corbyn, but she rode two horses from the same team.
    Since the vote (and notably, not before it), "respect the referendum" has been defined as hard Brexit.
    Otherwise I agree with your analysis; May is essentially trying to pretend to deliver both hard and soft Brexit simultaneously. It won't work.

    As today's Guardian puts it -
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/03/brexit-united-tory-party-stockpiling-conservatives-europe
    "An orderly Brexit depends on a united Tory party. So start stockpiling now"
    I've been trying to stockpile "Firsts" on PB threads, but with only limited success.

    Anyway, I enjoy tinned fish, baked beans and corned beef.
    No need for tinned fish, we'll have a surfeit of the fresh stuff. In fact we may need a messiah to do the feeding of the 5000 in reverse for the fishies, though rotting on the quayside might do the job.
    But of course. Concern about food shortages doesn't relate to the long term. It relates to the effect of disruption immediately following a No Deal Brexit.
    Much of which has been, er, catered for by increased storage and stockpiling.

    I'm sure the farmers of South Africa and Israel and Peru will go "Woo-hoo! Bring it on!" at the prospect of selling to the Brits at higher prices than if they had sold heir produce at home....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 26,978

    It does look as if the EU are standing firm until after the 14th Feb debate and votes in the HOC

    I can see the logic in that and in the meantime we can all look, in despair, at the nonsense that is the 'Malthouse' plan.

    I expect TM will wait until after mid Feb before entering talks in the EU following which she will no doubt re-submit the plan, adjusted or otherwise, and see how many ERG blink and how many labour mps vote for it.

    TM is going to need an extension to A50 at least for 3 months and I expect that request to be made sometime in March

    I expect the deal will go through by the end of June, just before the EU re-convene in July

    If there’s another meaningful vote on the same deal, why would anyone blink? I can see it getting defeated by an even bigger margin.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 10,822
    OT. Democracy in action. Jeremy Hunt has decided that the new President of Venezuala is Juan Guaido. Who needs elections when you've got Jeremy.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 21,497

    It does look as if the EU are standing firm until after the 14th Feb debate and votes in the HOC

    I can see the logic in that and in the meantime we can all look, in despair, at the nonsense that is the 'Malthouse' plan.

    I expect TM will wait until after mid Feb before entering talks in the EU following which she will no doubt re-submit the plan, adjusted or otherwise, and see how many ERG blink and how many labour mps vote for it.

    TM is going to need an extension to A50 at least for 3 months and I expect that request to be made sometime in March

    I expect the deal will go through by the end of June, just before the EU re-convene in July

    If there’s another meaningful vote on the same deal, why would anyone blink? I can see it getting defeated by an even bigger margin.
    A rare point of agreement. Trying to bring a vote on exactly the same deal as was defeated by 200 only a month ago, isn’t going to end well for the PM.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 4,119

    Whilst I Agree with his sentiments, it’s not exactly news that politicians lie. I’m sure the collective memory here could come up with thousands of examples from every party. The only new thing is that where lies were previously spoken and less accountable, they often now end up on Twitter and are recorded.

    My favourite example of this new scrutiny is here

    https://www.businessinsider.com/president-trump-flip-flops-made-from-tweets-2018-12?r=US&IR=T
    Well, yes, politicians can be slippery with language. But it's taking things to new levels to baldly contradict the historical record and then retort 'I stand by what I say' when your glaring historical blunder is pointed out. We're in 'the truth is whatever I say it is' territory here. Frightening.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 19,136
    Roger said:

    OT. Democracy in action. Jeremy Hunt has decided that the new President of Venezuala is Juan Guaido. Who needs elections when you've got Jeremy.

    That's what the Venezuelan constitution says
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 16,806

    It does look as if the EU are standing firm until after the 14th Feb debate and votes in the HOC

    I can see the logic in that and in the meantime we can all look, in despair, at the nonsense that is the 'Malthouse' plan.

    I expect TM will wait until after mid Feb before entering talks in the EU following which she will no doubt re-submit the plan, adjusted or otherwise, and see how many ERG blink and how many labour mps vote for it.

    TM is going to need an extension to A50 at least for 3 months and I expect that request to be made sometime in March

    I expect the deal will go through by the end of June, just before the EU re-convene in July

    It is hard to see why a few Tory remainers are going along with this fantasy exercise.
  • eekeek Posts: 3,387

    Whilst I Agree with his sentiments, it’s not exactly news that politicians lie. I’m sure the collective memory here could come up with thousands of examples from every party. The only new thing is that where lies were previously spoken and less accountable, they often now end up on Twitter and are recorded.

    My favourite example of this new scrutiny is here

    https://www.businessinsider.com/president-trump-flip-flops-made-from-tweets-2018-12?r=US&IR=T
    I think the more significant difference here is that when they are caught out as a lying idiot either unwilling or too incompetent to do basic research as shown by Daniel Kawczynski they aren't being called out for it in the reporting.

    We always seem to get xyz claims A, what we don't get is the bit that says A isn't possibly because of B and C which xyz already should knew because he studied Modern History at Oxford...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 23,255
    edited February 4
    kinabalu said:

    There are many ways for a GE to happen in 2019:

    (1) TM calls one to break the impasse in the event of her deal being blocked.
    (2) TM deal passes causing the DUP to withdraw confidence and collapse the government.
    (3) TM deal passes, she steps down after B day, new tory PM calls GE to secure a mandate.
    (4) We slide to no deal causing Grieve faction to resign whip and collapse the government.
    (5) Corbyn installed to deliver BINO, unstable government, does not last long.
    (6) Unity Coalition installed to deliver BINO, unstable government, does not last long.
    (7) Other scenarios that I can't think of right now.

    An election in 2019 is available at 2.7 on Betfair.

    My usual MO for political betting is to put money on things NOT happening (although depending on price obviously) but I am making an exception here. I think the 2.7 is value.

    After this mornings panic by conservative mps over a GE it is unlikely to happen for a while

    If any conservative mp resigns the whip and stands as an independent, do not expect them to vote for a GE and loss of their seat

    Also, remember for TM to call an election it has to pass the cabinet and then receive the support of 434 mps and without the conservative support it falls

    There could be a GE this year but it is looking unlikely while brexit is unresolved. Indeed labour may have more problems than the conservatives with a number ready to split away and form their own pro EU group
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 11,440

    On topic, I think Mike is right. May will not be allowed to fight another election.

    I suspect May’s deal will ultimately pass, and then May will be removed.

    She will be the scapegoat.

    By Mays deal I presume you mean #CorbynsCustomsUnion
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 16,806

    Scott_P said:
    There is a big difference between a delay once the deal is done and one without a deal.

    One is a road to avoiding a cliffedge Brexit and one is a road to nowhere.

    She surely knows there has to be a delay, but has no political capital left to propose it herself. So she waits to have it thrust upon her.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 1,412
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Believing the Tories lost the election because of bad campaigning is a marketing claim too far.

    She lost the election because she was seen to be a fanatical Leaver.

    The only way Tory and neutral Remainers could register their disgust was to vote Corbyn.

    I don't think anyone, anywhere has seen May as a fanatical leaver!
    The only message that was heard from her campaign was "BREXIT MEANS BREXIT", Day after miserable day. Week after miserable week....

    That sounded like fanaticism.

    Or it was as vague as possible to get support but not commit to something hardline. May has consistently shown in her actions she is seeking as soft a Brexit as possible, whilst leaving. This would be a difficult task in the best of times, but look at who is opposing in her own party - those who want to stay in EU, and those who want a hard Brexit.

    You credit the voting public with too much subtlety. At the time of the last election only a very tiny number knew the difference between a 'soft' or 'hard' Brexit*. 'BREXIT' itself is a word without nuance. It is the sledgehammer of the English language.

    As I said both Corbyn and May are guilty of riding two horses, though you make an interesting point about language. May is in the middle with regards to the range of Brexit options.

    The Tories in general could do with someone strong in marketing able to sell their story. Over the last 9 years they have repeatedly allowed opponents to misframe their policies. The spare room subsidy / bedroom tax to me is the most fascinating. The last time I looked at it, it was actually a successful policy, in support8ng the reallocation of public sector housing to appropriately sized households

    If they had taken into account the problems around availability of suitably sized alternative accommodation to downsize to, and also taken account of different needs of families with disabled members, and those who have service personnel as residents, then I would class it as a great policy. However if you mention bedroom tax to anyone you will hardly find a supporter.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 9,276
    Roger said:

    OT. Democracy in action. Jeremy Hunt has decided that the new President of Venezuala is Juan Guaido. Who needs elections when you've got Jeremy.

    I know arguing the point will fall on deaf ears, but Maduro opted to completely ignore the result of the 2015 election.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 1,370

    On topic I see the story of an election as a false flag exercise

    - one of Labours weakest points is re-election as they have impending issues around deselection of moderate MPs, there would be pressure to crystallise an approach to Brexit, there are unrealistic expectations on the ability of the campaign to swing opinion.

    If the Observer and the Times have the story about Labour MPs planning to resign the whip, then the Tories have probably known for days or weeks.

    There aren't many times that would be auspicious for May to call an election, but one is the day after the Labour Party splits.
  • It is rather amusing to see so many conservative mps running around like headless chickens at the thought of a GE

    Because they know what a Theresa May-led General Election means for many of them.

    Unemployment.
    It is funny though
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 9,276
    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    There is a big difference between a delay once the deal is done and one without a deal.

    One is a road to avoiding a cliffedge Brexit and one is a road to nowhere.

    She surely knows there has to be a delay, but has no political capital left to propose it herself. So she waits to have it thrust upon her.
    I think it's pretty simple. She would support Deal+Delay, not Delay.
  • It does look as if the EU are standing firm until after the 14th Feb debate and votes in the HOC

    I can see the logic in that and in the meantime we can all look, in despair, at the nonsense that is the 'Malthouse' plan.

    I expect TM will wait until after mid Feb before entering talks in the EU following which she will no doubt re-submit the plan, adjusted or otherwise, and see how many ERG blink and how many labour mps vote for it.

    TM is going to need an extension to A50 at least for 3 months and I expect that request to be made sometime in March

    I expect the deal will go through by the end of June, just before the EU re-convene in July

    Time to go for a #CorbynCustomsUnion
    Too late
  • It does look as if the EU are standing firm until after the 14th Feb debate and votes in the HOC

    I can see the logic in that and in the meantime we can all look, in despair, at the nonsense that is the 'Malthouse' plan.

    I expect TM will wait until after mid Feb before entering talks in the EU following which she will no doubt re-submit the plan, adjusted or otherwise, and see how many ERG blink and how many labour mps vote for it.

    TM is going to need an extension to A50 at least for 3 months and I expect that request to be made sometime in March

    I expect the deal will go through by the end of June, just before the EU re-convene in July

    If there’s another meaningful vote on the same deal, why would anyone blink? I can see it getting defeated by an even bigger margin.
    No deal is a huge reason
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 16,806

    On topic I see the story of an election as a false flag exercise

    - one of Labours weakest points is re-election as they have impending issues around deselection of moderate MPs, there would be pressure to crystallise an approach to Brexit, there are unrealistic expectations on the ability of the campaign to swing opinion.

    If the Observer and the Times have the story about Labour MPs planning to resign the whip, then the Tories have probably known for days or weeks.

    There aren't many times that would be auspicious for May to call an election, but one is the day after the Labour Party splits.
    Provided the splitters don't get the type of traction that the SDP quickly got in 1981. Many of us have been saying for ages that it is remarkable that the two-party system remains intact despite both parties being badly led and not popular.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 1,412
    eek said:

    Whilst I Agree with his sentiments, it’s not exactly news that politicians lie. I’m sure the collective memory here could come up with thousands of examples from every party. The only new thing is that where lies were previously spoken and less accountable, they often now end up on Twitter and are recorded.

    My favourite example of this new scrutiny is here

    https://www.businessinsider.com/president-trump-flip-flops-made-from-tweets-2018-12?r=US&IR=T
    I think the more significant difference here is that when they are caught out as a lying idiot either unwilling or too incompetent to do basic research as shown by Daniel Kawczynski they aren't being called out for it in the reporting.

    We always seem to get xyz claims A, what we don't get is the bit that says A isn't possibly because of B and C which xyz already should knew because he studied Modern History at Oxford...
    You would expect more scrutiny locally if Shropshire hadn’t voted Leave
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 13,985

    Whilst I Agree with his sentiments, it’s not exactly news that politicians lie. I’m sure the collective memory here could come up with thousands of examples from every party. The only new thing is that where lies were previously spoken and less accountable, they often now end up on Twitter and are recorded.

    My favourite example of this new scrutiny is here

    https://www.businessinsider.com/president-trump-flip-flops-made-from-tweets-2018-12?r=US&IR=T
    I think the suggestion (as I read it) was that there was a time when if the lies of pols were exposed, they withdrew the lie, apologised & even in extreme cases resigned. Now, apart from having the pish ripped out of them on twitter, nothing happens. Kawczynski doubles down on it and even gets to lay a smoke screen in his local paper.

    You can say it doesn't really matter because Kawczynski is a witless, avaricious vacuity, but currently people like him, if not in the saddle, are grabbing at the reins of our future with their sweaty little paws. They're also symptoms of much bigger forces who want to control the narrative, to use a wanky phrase.
This discussion has been closed.