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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » I’m not convinced the Tories are going to let TMay fight a sec

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  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,008

    Chris said:

    Nigelb said:



    I don't think anyone, anywhere has seen May as a fanatical leaver!

    Im not sure! I’m sure Roger is a remainer / people vote type, and any kind of Brexit to them would be fanatical / ideological etc. There are clearly a number of people from Lib Dem /Green / Euro Tories who his statement could apply to. I don5 think May is a fanatical leaver- she wants to respect the referendum result and leave, yet leave in the softest possible manner hence her red lines. She has ridden two horses as much as Corbyn, but she rode two horses from the same team.
    Since the vote (and notably, not before it), "respect the referendum" has been defined as hard Brexit.
    Otherwise I agree with your analysis; May is essentially trying to pretend to deliver both hard and soft Brexit simultaneously. It won't work.

    As today's Guardian puts it -
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/03/brexit-united-tory-party-stockpiling-conservatives-europe
    "An orderly Brexit depends on a united Tory party. So start stockpiling now"
    I've been trying to stockpile "Firsts" on PB threads, but with only limited success.

    Anyway, I enjoy tinned fish, baked beans and corned beef.
    No need for tinned fish, we'll have a surfeit of the fresh stuff. In fact we may need a messiah to do the feeding of the 5000 in reverse for the fishies, though rotting on the quayside might do the job.
    But of course. Concern about food shortages doesn't relate to the long term. It relates to the effect of disruption immediately following a No Deal Brexit.
    Much of which has been, er, catered for by increased storage and stockpiling.

    I'm sure the farmers of South Africa and Israel and Peru will go "Woo-hoo! Bring it on!" at the prospect of selling to the Brits at higher prices than if they had sold heir produce at home....
    As I said, the concern doesn't relaten to the long term, but the short term. It takes time for food to get here from South Africa and Israel and Peru.

    Regarding "increased storage and stockpiling", we know that the supermarkets have said there's insufficient storage capacity for frozen and chilled food. But apparently sufficient storage for food that will keep at ambient temperature. So hopefully people won't go hungry even in the worst case. Though obviously there's still scope for panic-buying.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311

    On topic I see the story of an election as a false flag exercise

    - one of Labours weakest points is re-election as they have impending issues around deselection of moderate MPs, there would be pressure to crystallise an approach to Brexit, there are unrealistic expectations on the ability of the campaign to swing opinion.

    If the Observer and the Times have the story about Labour MPs planning to resign the whip, then the Tories have probably known for days or weeks.

    There aren't many times that would be auspicious for May to call an election, but one is the day after the Labour Party splits.
    Yes you are right and I hadn’t thought of that although I don’t think a new party would be popular, it might pull a small amount of votes away from Labour to lose seats, and it may also remove some of the accountability and common sense from the Labour side which might be unhelpful
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,008

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    There is a big difference between a delay once the deal is done and one without a deal.

    One is a road to avoiding a cliffedge Brexit and one is a road to nowhere.

    She surely knows there has to be a delay, but has no political capital left to propose it herself. So she waits to have it thrust upon her.
    I think it's pretty simple. She would support Deal+Delay, not Delay.
    And it's possible that would also be the EU's attitude.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    IanB2 said:

    On topic I see the story of an election as a false flag exercise

    - one of Labours weakest points is re-election as they have impending issues around deselection of moderate MPs, there would be pressure to crystallise an approach to Brexit, there are unrealistic expectations on the ability of the campaign to swing opinion.

    If the Observer and the Times have the story about Labour MPs planning to resign the whip, then the Tories have probably known for days or weeks.

    There aren't many times that would be auspicious for May to call an election, but one is the day after the Labour Party splits.
    Provided the splitters don't get the type of traction that the SDP quickly got in 1981. Many of us have been saying for ages that it is remarkable that the two-party system remains intact despite both parties being badly led and not popular.
    I doubt SDP-level support would happen: there's no jungle drums about the plotters setting up party apparatus (phone lines, party name, marketing campaign) and the Observer was careful to call it a "centre group" rather than a "party", which implies a number of MPs sitting as Independent Labour.

    But let's say it does. There's two interesting consequences for May.

    One is that SDP2 would almost certainly take more votes from Labour than from the Conservatives. Under FPTP, this would likely tip the balance back to the Conservatives in plenty of marginals.

    Second, just as Cameron found the Lib Dems more pliant than the headbangers in his own party, May could well find the SDP2 a useful partner in binary Brexit votes when facing down the ERG.

    I'm sceptical that the split will happen - moderate Labour MPs are traditionally too tribal and, frankly, too 🐔💩 to consider life outside the party. But if CCHQ has intel that it's on, then I can understand why they might be considering an election.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    edited February 2019

    On topic I see the story of an election as a false flag exercise

    - one of Labours weakest points is re-election as they have impending issues around deselection of moderate MPs, there would be pressure to crystallise an approach to Brexit, there are unrealistic expectations on the ability of the campaign to swing opinion.

    If the Observer and the Times have the story about Labour MPs planning to resign the whip, then the Tories have probably known for days or weeks.

    There aren't many times that would be auspicious for May to call an election, but one is the day after the Labour Party splits.
    Yes you are right and I hadn’t thought of that although I don’t think a new party would be popular, it might pull a small amount of votes away from Labour to lose seats, and it may also remove some of the accountability and common sense from the Labour side which might be unhelpful
    Even if the Labour party doesn't split I do wonder if they could afford to run (and staff) an election

    https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1092367788436606976
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    IanB2 said:

    On topic I see the story of an election as a false flag exercise

    - one of Labours weakest points is re-election as they have impending issues around deselection of moderate MPs, there would be pressure to crystallise an approach to Brexit, there are unrealistic expectations on the ability of the campaign to swing opinion.

    If the Observer and the Times have the story about Labour MPs planning to resign the whip, then the Tories have probably known for days or weeks.

    There aren't many times that would be auspicious for May to call an election, but one is the day after the Labour Party splits.
    Provided the splitters don't get the type of traction that the SDP quickly got in 1981. Many of us have been saying for ages that it is remarkable that the two-party system remains intact despite both parties being badly led and not popular.
    I doubt SDP-level support would happen: there's no jungle drums about the plotters setting up party apparatus (phone lines, party name, marketing campaign) and the Observer was careful to call it a "centre group" rather than a "party", which implies a number of MPs sitting as Independent Labour.

    But let's say it does. There's two interesting consequences for May.

    One is that SDP2 would almost certainly take more votes from Labour than from the Conservatives. Under FPTP, this would likely tip the balance back to the Conservatives in plenty of marginals.

    Second, just as Cameron found the Lib Dems more pliant than the headbangers in his own party, May could well find the SDP2 a useful partner in binary Brexit votes when facing down the ERG.

    I'm sceptical that the split will happen - moderate Labour MPs are traditionally too tribal and, frankly, too 🐔💩 to consider life outside the party. But if CCHQ has intel that it's on, then I can understand why they might be considering an election.
    That moderate party would only exist until an election, in a FPTP world I suspect a lot of them wouldn't win their seat at the next election.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    eek said:

    Even if the Labour party doesn't split I do wonder if they could afford to run (and staff) an election

    Another CorbynLive should sort that out...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,704

    It does look as if the EU are standing firm until after the 14th Feb debate and votes in the HOC

    I can see the logic in that and in the meantime we can all look, in despair, at the nonsense that is the 'Malthouse' plan.

    I expect TM will wait until after mid Feb before entering talks in the EU following which she will no doubt re-submit the plan, adjusted or otherwise, and see how many ERG blink and how many labour mps vote for it.

    TM is going to need an extension to A50 at least for 3 months and I expect that request to be made sometime in March

    I expect the deal will go through by the end of June, just before the EU re-convene in July

    Time to go for a #CorbynCustomsUnion
    Too late
    It is miles quicker than the futile deal as the EU would agree it IMO.

    Time to get behind #CCU.

    We Can even call it Mays alternative #CCU if it makes you feel better.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    Scott_P said:
    They could sit day and night to get the legislation through? :D
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    There are bitter divisions between the Remainers and the Leavers, between those who have not yet given up the fight and those who accept that heading for the exit is the only option.

    Not Brexit this time (although it’s connected) but the Labour Party, where MPs unhappy with Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership can’t even decide whether to stay or go. The splitters are split.

    There was fresh news over the weekend in The Observer that six Labour MPs were discussing quitting the party to set up a new centrist group in parliament.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/labours-splitters-are-split-over-splitting-qch7j8cj6
  • It is rather amusing to see so many conservative mps running around like headless chickens at the thought of a GE

    Because they know what a Theresa May-led General Election means for many of them.

    Unemployment.
    It is funny though
    No its serious.

    May has gone in a couple of weeks from saying she will definitely stand down before the next election to stoking rumours she is seeking one. The woman lacks all integrity and there's one cardinal sin that is unforgivable it is having no integrity.
  • Mr. Sandpit, sorry for the slow reply. In shock news, I was being vaguely productive.

    On Gasly, I put a little on at 36 for the title (each way, so a fifth the odds for top 3). I think those are still the current odds.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    edited February 2019
    Scott_P said:

    There are bitter divisions between the Remainers and the Leavers, between those who have not yet given up the fight and those who accept that heading for the exit is the only option.

    Not Brexit this time (although it’s connected) but the Labour Party, where MPs unhappy with Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership can’t even decide whether to stay or go. The splitters are split.

    There was fresh news over the weekend in The Observer that six Labour MPs were discussing quitting the party to set up a new centrist group in parliament.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/labours-splitters-are-split-over-splitting-qch7j8cj6

    Chuka won't have the guts to quit and set up his own party in the end.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,840

    After this mornings panic by conservative mps over a GE it is unlikely to happen for a while

    If any conservative mp resigns the whip and stands as an independent, do not expect them to vote for a GE and loss of their seat

    Also, remember for TM to call an election it has to pass the cabinet and then receive the support of 434 mps and without the conservative support it falls

    There could be a GE this year but it is looking unlikely while brexit is unresolved. Indeed labour may have more problems than the conservatives with a number ready to split away and form their own pro EU group

    Well the 2.7 on BF is for a GE to happen at ANY time this year. That maps to a 37% chance and I like this as a bet because IMO the probability is a fair bit higher.

    That said, marginally the most likely future per my device is that TM gets her deal through and things just about hold together - she carries on as PM until 2021, at which point Michael Gove replaces her and he goes on to fight (and lose) the next GE, which will not be until the end of this fixed term parliament in 2022.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    On topic I see the story of an election as a false flag exercise

    - one of Labours weakest points is re-election as they have impending issues around deselection of moderate MPs, there would be pressure to crystallise an approach to Brexit, there are unrealistic expectations on the ability of the campaign to swing opinion.

    If the Observer and the Times have the story about Labour MPs planning to resign the whip, then the Tories have probably known for days or weeks.

    There aren't many times that would be auspicious for May to call an election, but one is the day after the Labour Party splits.
    Provided the splitters don't get the type of traction that the SDP quickly got in 1981. Many of us have been saying for ages that it is remarkable that the two-party system remains intact despite both parties being badly led and not popular.
    I doubt SDP-level support would happen: there's no jungle drums about the plotters setting up party apparatus (phone lines, party name, marketing campaign) and the Observer was careful to call it a "centre group" rather than a "party", which implies a number of MPs sitting as Independent Labour.

    But let's say it does. There's two interesting consequences for May.

    One is that SDP2 would almost certainly take more votes from Labour than from the Conservatives. Under FPTP, this would likely tip the balance back to the Conservatives in plenty of marginals.

    Second, just as Cameron found the Lib Dems more pliant than the headbangers in his own party, May could well find the SDP2 a useful partner in binary Brexit votes when facing down the ERG.

    I'm sceptical that the split will happen - moderate Labour MPs are traditionally too tribal and, frankly, too 🐔💩 to consider life outside the party. But if CCHQ has intel that it's on, then I can understand why they might be considering an election.
    That moderate party would only exist until an election, in a FPTP world I suspect a lot of them wouldn't win their seat at the next election.
    Indeed. But there are 54 Labour seats with a <5% majority, and 67 Conservative seats. If SDP2 peels off enough votes from Labour to sweep those 54 into May's hands while safeguarding the 67, she's sitting very pretty indeed.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    GIN1138 said:

    Chukka won't have the guts to quit and set up his own party in the end.

    That is probably true, but if an election is called what manifesto can Labour possibly agree on?
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    Scott_P said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Chukka won't have the guts to quit and set up his own party in the end.

    That is probably true, but if an election is called what manifesto can Labour possibly agree on?
    What manifesto can any party currently agree on?
  • Mr. eek, "The other side are rotters!"
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    eek said:

    Scott_P said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Chukka won't have the guts to quit and set up his own party in the end.

    That is probably true, but if an election is called what manifesto can Labour possibly agree on?
    What manifesto can any party currently agree on?
    If Brexit is done then the Tories are seemingly more united
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    On topic I see the story of an election as a false flag exercise

    - one of Labours weakest points is re-election as they have impending issues around deselection of moderate MPs, there would be pressure to crystallise an approach to Brexit, there are unrealistic expectations on the ability of the campaign to swing opinion.

    If the Observer and the Times have the story about Labour MPs planning to resign the whip, then the Tories have probably known for days or weeks.

    There aren't many times that would be auspicious for May to call an election, but one is the day after the Labour Party splits.
    Provided the splitters don't get the type of traction that the SDP quickly got in 1981. Many of us have been saying for ages that it is remarkable that the two-party system remains intact despite both parties being badly led and not popular.
    I doubt SDP-level support would happen: there's no jungle drums about the plotters setting up party apparatus (phone lines, party name, marketing campaign) and the Observer was careful to call it a "centre group" rather than a "party", which implies a number of MPs sitting as Independent Labour.

    But let's say it does. There's two interesting consequences for May.

    One is that SDP2 would almost certainly take more votes from Labour than from the Conservatives. Under FPTP, this would likely tip the balance back to the Conservatives in plenty of marginals.

    Second, just as Cameron found the Lib Dems more pliant than the headbangers in his own party, May could well find the SDP2 a useful partner in binary Brexit votes when facing down the ERG.

    I'm sceptical that the split will happen - moderate Labour MPs are traditionally too tribal and, frankly, too 🐔💩 to consider life outside the party. But if CCHQ has intel that it's on, then I can understand why they might be considering an election.
    That moderate party would only exist until an election, in a FPTP world I suspect a lot of them wouldn't win their seat at the next election.
    Indeed. But there are 54 Labour seats with a <5% majority, and 67 Conservative seats. If SDP2 peels off enough votes from Labour to sweep those 54 into May's hands while safeguarding the 67, she's sitting very pretty indeed.</p>
    and instead of having a set of MPs (the coalition) to moderate the extremes she will be forced towards those extremes which is how we've ended up in the mess we are in...
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    On topic I see the story of an election as a false flag exercise

    - one of Labours weakest points is re-election as they have impending issues around deselection of moderate MPs, there would be pressure to crystallise an approach to Brexit, there are unrealistic expectations on the ability of the campaign to swing opinion.

    If the Observer and the Times have the story about Labour MPs planning to resign the whip, then the Tories have probably known for days or weeks.

    There aren't many times that would be auspicious for May to call an election, but one is the day after the Labour Party splits.
    Provided the splitters don't get the type of traction that the SDP quickly got in 1981. Many of us have been saying for ages that it is remarkable that the two-party system remains intact despite both parties being badly led and not popular.
    I doubt SDP-level support would happen: there's no jungle drums about the plotters setting up party apparatus (phone lines, party name, marketing campaign) and the Observer was careful to call it a "centre group" rather than a "party", which implies a number of MPs sitting as Independent Labour.

    But let's say it does. There's two interesting consequences for May.

    One is that SDP2 would almost certainly take more votes from Labour than from the Conservatives. Under FPTP, this would likely tip the balance back to the Conservatives in plenty of marginals.

    Second, just as Cameron found the Lib Dems more pliant than the headbangers in his own party, May could well find the SDP2 a useful partner in binary Brexit votes when facing down the ERG.

    I'm sceptical that the split will happen - moderate Labour MPs are traditionally too tribal and, frankly, too 🐔💩 to consider life outside the party. But if CCHQ has intel that it's on, then I can understand why they might be considering an election.
    That moderate party would only exist until an election, in a FPTP world I suspect a lot of them wouldn't win their seat at the next election.
    Indeed. But there are 54 Labour seats with a <5% majority, and 67 Conservative seats. If SDP2 peels off enough votes from Labour to sweep those 54 into May's hands while safeguarding the 67, she's sitting very pretty indeed.</p>
    This is why the Tory MPs should be rubbing their hands together. Deselection for not being pureblood Corbynista is coming down the tracks. If that instigates momentum (!) for a split then tha5 would be a big opportunity for the Tories which would only disappear after fighting an election.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    Mr. eek, "The other side are rotters!"

    While that is how many people decide how to vote, I don't think that's enough to cover a 5 year parliament - ideally there is something concrete a party wants to do..
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,122
    Chris said:

    felix said:

    Chris said:

    felix said:

    I'm confident that if the ERG continue to block the deal around 40/50 Tory MPs will vote to block or delay Brexit . The stakes for No Deal are too high.

    I'm sure a request to the EU to extend just because there is continued deadlock in Parliament is the least likely kind of request to succeed.
    Who said anything about requests - the blocking of no deal can be done unilaterally if needs be.
    You referred to blocking or delaying Brexit. Revoking can be done unilaterally, but extending can't.
    Pin dancer!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,955
    edited February 2019
    Scott_P said:
    You can understand the difficulty. For the PM to say once there would be no election, only to then go and call an election - makes her look like a liar. To do it twice would make her a serial liar - and an easy target for the rerun of the "you can't trust a word she says" line that hurt her badly in the last election camapaign.

    So all anybody around her can do is play a coy game of "Maybe. Maybe not..."

    Which looks and sounds shite.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,122
    Roger said:

    OT. Democracy in action. Jeremy Hunt has decided that the new President of Venezuala is Juan Guaido. Who needs elections when you've got Jeremy.

    Along with the EU and many other countries including France and Spain.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    On topic I see the story of an election as a false flag exercise

    -.

    If the Observer and the Times have the story about Labour MPs planning to resign the whip, then the Tories have probably known for days or weeks.

    There aren't many times that would be auspicious for May to call an election, but one is the day after the Labour Party splits.
    Provided the splitters don't get the type of traction that the SDP quickly got in 1981. Many of us have been saying for ages that it is remarkable that the two-party system remains intact despite both parties being badly led and not popular.
    I doubt SDP-level support would happen: there's no jungle drums about the plotters setting up party apparatus (phone lines, party name, marketing campaign) and the Observer was careful to call it a "centre group" rather than a "party", which implies a number of MPs sitting as Independent Labour.

    But let's say it does. There's two interesting consequences for May.

    One is that SDP2 would almost certainly take more votes from Labour than from the Conservatives. Under FPTP, this would likely tip the balance back to the Conservatives in plenty of marginals.

    Second, just as Cameron found the Lib Dems more pliant than the headbangers in his own party, May could well find the SDP2 a useful partner in binary Brexit votes when facing down the ERG.

    I'm sceptical that the split will happen - moderate Labour MPs are traditionally too tribal and, frankly, too 🐔💩 to consider life outside the party. But if CCHQ has intel that it's on, then I can understand why they might be considering an election.
    That moderate party would only exist until an election, in a FPTP world I suspect a lot of them wouldn't win their seat at the next election.
    Indeed. But there are 54 Labour seats with a <5% majority, and 67 Conservative seats. If SDP2 peels off enough votes from Labour to sweep those 54 into May's hands while safeguarding the 67, she's sitting very pretty indeed.</p>
    This is why the Tory MPs should be rubbing their hands together. Deselection for not being pureblood Corbynista is coming down the tracks. If that instigates momentum (!) for a split then tha5 would be a big opportunity for the Tories which would only disappear after fighting an election.
    So the more interesting, if even more unlikely, scenario is where the new grouping pulled across a batch of Tory remainers as well. The SDP tried to pull across Tories but as I recall only got one.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    They could sit day and night to get the legislation through? :D
    lol @ "her colleagues frequently tell me that her capacity to describe the absence of agreement as progress may well be without equal in modern political history."
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    From the Huffington blog:

    "Meanwhile, Nick Boles is facing the real threat of deselection by local party activists furious with his claim that he could resign the party whip in the event of a no-deal. The Times reports Boles is unfazed: “If they decide to kick me out of the Conservative Party, so be it.” Next week his local party will ask him to declare within 21 days whether he will seek “re-adoption” as its parliamentary candidate. His constituency chairman Philip Sagar said: “People want somebody who’s not in Notting Hill, who’ll turn up locally and reflect its views. They feel he’s not one of us.”

    Interesting that for all the talk of deselecting Labour MPs, nothing as concrete as this has actually happened (yet).
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    They could sit day and night to get the legislation through? :D
    I think if she can get the WA approved the EU will role over for an extension to get things in order, though with a WA is there anything that cant be done at the two year pace?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    IanB2 said:

    So the more interesting, if even more unlikely, scenario is where the new grouping pulled across a batch of Tory remainers as well. The SDP tried to pull across Tories but as I recall only got one.

    Exactly. To think that only your opponents will suffer some event while you yourself will not shows an incredibly naivety.

    We are not in a ceteris paribus situation here - of course it is possible that some Cons MPs will bolt. Imagine the thought of being led by JRM, Leadsom, Boris, Baker, Francois, or even Raab. Plenty of Cons MPs in that case I believe might leave.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    From the Huffington blog:

    "Meanwhile, Nick Boles is facing the real threat of deselection by local party activists furious with his claim that he could resign the party whip in the event of a no-deal. The Times reports Boles is unfazed: “If they decide to kick me out of the Conservative Party, so be it.” Next week his local party will ask him to declare within 21 days whether he will seek “re-adoption” as its parliamentary candidate. His constituency chairman Philip Sagar said: “People want somebody who’s not in Notting Hill, who’ll turn up locally and reflect its views. They feel he’s not one of us.”

    Interesting that for all the talk of deselecting Labour MPs, nothing as concrete as this has actually happened (yet).

    He could have cover - from the RP article below:

    "And what a significant number of ministers tell me is that there will be mass government walkouts on or before 14 February – to take advantage of that next available date to vote to rule out a no-deal Brexit – unless before then the PM publicly announces an intention to negotiate with the EU a postponement of Brexit day of at least three months.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,879
    kinabalu said:

    There are many ways for a GE to happen in 2019:

    (1) TM calls one to break the impasse in the event of her deal being blocked.
    (2) TM deal passes causing the DUP to withdraw confidence and collapse the government.
    (3) TM deal passes, she steps down after B day, new tory PM calls GE to secure a mandate.
    (4) We slide to no deal causing Grieve faction to resign whip and collapse the government.
    (5) Corbyn installed to deliver BINO, unstable government, does not last long.
    (6) Unity Coalition installed to deliver BINO, unstable government, does not last long.
    (7) Other scenarios that I can't think of right now.

    An election in 2019 is available at 2.7 on Betfair.

    My usual MO for political betting is to put money on things NOT happening (although depending on price obviously) but I am making an exception here. I think the 2.7 is value.

    I think the better bet is laying the next election being in 2022 at 2.9.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,955
    TOPPING said:

    IanB2 said:

    So the more interesting, if even more unlikely, scenario is where the new grouping pulled across a batch of Tory remainers as well. The SDP tried to pull across Tories but as I recall only got one.

    Exactly. To think that only your opponents will suffer some event while you yourself will not shows an incredibly naivety.

    We are not in a ceteris paribus situation here - of course it is possible that some Cons MPs will bolt. Imagine the thought of being led by JRM, Leadsom, Boris, Baker, Francois, or even Raab. Plenty of Cons MPs in that case I believe might leave.
    But most of their activists and members wouldn't follow them. As Boles is about to discover....
  • Indeed. But there are 54 Labour seats with a <5% majority, and 67 Conservative seats. If SDP2 peels off enough votes from Labour to sweep those 54 into May's hands while safeguarding the 67, she's sitting very pretty indeed.</p>

    This is why the Tory MPs should be rubbing their hands together. Deselection for not being pureblood Corbynista is coming down the tracks. If that instigates momentum (!) for a split then tha5 would be a big opportunity for the Tories which would only disappear after fighting an election.
    A good case for Tory hand-rubbing. Trouble is, there have also been calls for deselections on the blue team, and not just of Nick Boles. In practice, I'd have thought an imminent election would stave off both deselections and splits.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    eek said:



    Even if the Labour party doesn't split I do wonder if they could afford to run (and staff) an election

    https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1092367788436606976

    The detail here is that the election fund is an good shape - it's the routine expenditure which is overbudgeted and needs to be cut back - community organisers and so on. Obviously all political party activity ultimately relates to elections in some way, but it's not that the party is suddenly broke.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,008
    felix said:

    Chris said:

    felix said:

    Chris said:

    felix said:

    I'm confident that if the ERG continue to block the deal around 40/50 Tory MPs will vote to block or delay Brexit . The stakes for No Deal are too high.

    I'm sure a request to the EU to extend just because there is continued deadlock in Parliament is the least likely kind of request to succeed.
    Who said anything about requests - the blocking of no deal can be done unilaterally if needs be.
    You referred to blocking or delaying Brexit. Revoking can be done unilaterally, but extending can't.
    Pin dancer!
    Pin head!
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Believing the Tories lost the election because of bad campaigning is a marketing claim too far.

    She lost the election because she was seen to be a fanatical Leaver.

    The only way Tory and neutral Remainers could register their disgust was to vote Corbyn.

    I don't think anyone, anywhere has seen May as a fanatical leaver!
    The only message that was heard from her campaign was "BREXIT MEANS BREXIT", Day after miserable day. Week after miserable week....

    That sounded like fanaticism.

    Or it was as vague as possible to get support but not commit to something hardline. May has consistently shown in her actions she is seeking as soft a Brexit as possible, whilst leaving. This would be a difficult task in the best of times, but look at who is opposing in her own party - those who want to stay in EU, and those who want a hard Brexit.

    You credit the voting public with too much subtlety. At the time of the last election only a very tiny number knew the difference between a 'soft' or 'hard' Brexit*. 'BREXIT' itself is a word without nuance. It is the sledgehammer of the English language.

    As I said both Corbyn and May are guilty of riding two horses, though you make an interesting point about language. May is in the middle with regards to the range of Brexit options.

    The Tories in general could do with someone strong in marketing able to sell their story. Over the last 9 years they have repeatedly allowed opponents to misframe their policies. The spare room subsidy / bedroom tax to me is the most fascinating. The last time I looked at it, it was actually a successful policy, in support8ng the reallocation of public sector housing to appropriately sized households

    If they had taken into account the problems around availability of suitably sized alternative accommodation to downsize to, and also taken account of different needs of families with disabled members, and those who have service personnel as residents, then I would class it as a great policy. However if you mention bedroom tax to anyone you will hardly find a supporter.
    Absolutely, it was a rush to do things, rather than take the more experienced position that Labour had. They introduced the bedroom tax rules for housing benefit in private properties. But it caused no fuss because it applied to new tenants only. By the time people realised it was happening it became part of their decision making process for the property they chose.

    Government goes on forever, you dont need to be in a rush, put the thing in place, over time it becomes accepted. As you say BT is case in point.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Roger said:

    OT. Democracy in action. Jeremy Hunt has decided that the new President of Venezuala is Juan Guaido. Who needs elections when you've got Jeremy.


    Works for me. If countries have rigged elections, we shouldn't recognise their leaders.

    Next up, Turkey and Russia.
  • eek said:

    On topic I see the story of an election as a false flag exercise

    - one of Labours weakest points is re-election as they have impending issues around deselection of moderate MPs, there would be pressure to crystallise an approach to Brexit, there are unrealistic expectations on the ability of the campaign to swing opinion.

    If the Observer and the Times have the story about Labour MPs planning to resign the whip, then the Tories have probably known for days or weeks.

    There aren't many times that would be auspicious for May to call an election, but one is the day after the Labour Party splits.
    Yes you are right and I hadn’t thought of that although I don’t think a new party would be popular, it might pull a small amount of votes away from Labour to lose seats, and it may also remove some of the accountability and common sense from the Labour side which might be unhelpful
    Even if the Labour party doesn't split I do wonder if they could afford to run (and staff) an election

    https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1092367788436606976
    Currently, Mr Corbyn’s office in Parliament now has more than 40 staff. Previous leader Ed Miliband had just under 20 staff in ‘peacetime’, and 27 even during the run up to the 2015 general election.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,879

    eek said:



    Even if the Labour party doesn't split I do wonder if they could afford to run (and staff) an election

    https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1092367788436606976

    The detail here is that the election fund is an good shape - it's the routine expenditure which is overbudgeted and needs to be cut back - community organisers and so on. Obviously all political party activity ultimately relates to elections in some way, but it's not that the party is suddenly broke.
    I suppose it depends when you think the next election will be. If you think its soon, then holding onto some community organisers makes sense. Presumably fundraising is easier in an election period also. 40 staff is less than I thought it would be.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    TOPPING said:

    IanB2 said:

    So the more interesting, if even more unlikely, scenario is where the new grouping pulled across a batch of Tory remainers as well. The SDP tried to pull across Tories but as I recall only got one.

    Exactly. To think that only your opponents will suffer some event while you yourself will not shows an incredibly naivety.

    We are not in a ceteris paribus situation here - of course it is possible that some Cons MPs will bolt. Imagine the thought of being led by JRM, Leadsom, Boris, Baker, Francois, or even Raab. Plenty of Cons MPs in that case I believe might leave.
    But most of their activists and members wouldn't follow them. As Boles is about to discover....
    Maybe maybe not - maybe they'll pick up some disaffected with Corbyn-ers.

    As mentioned, ceteris paribus is not your friend here.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038

    eek said:

    Scott_P said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Chukka won't have the guts to quit and set up his own party in the end.

    That is probably true, but if an election is called what manifesto can Labour possibly agree on?
    What manifesto can any party currently agree on?
    If Brexit is done then the Tories are seemingly more united
    Hmm. I think that once Brexit is done, both parties will return to something approaching normality. (We saw at the 2017 election how quickly people and parties refocus on normal politics.) Local Labour and Tory parties may deselect a few wayward MPs but that won't affect national support, and FPTP makes any new centrist party virtually impossible to get off the ground.

    So the key window of interest remains this pre-Brexit period. It still looks like the crunch will come if and when May admits defeat over the backstop. She could go in the customs-union direction; this would mean halting Brexit for a while, and forming a cross-party alliance. Both of these things would be eminently sensible, but I don't think she could bring herself to do either.

    If she goes for another failed attempt at the meaningful vote, the Remainer wing in cabinet/party will rebel and god knows then what will happen. Politically very exciting. Terrible for the country. This has always been the awful truth about Brexit: it's debatable whether the UK should be in the EU or not - the problem is that leaving is far too messy to be worth it.
  • Andrew said:

    Roger said:

    OT. Democracy in action. Jeremy Hunt has decided that the new President of Venezuala is Juan Guaido. Who needs elections when you've got Jeremy.


    Works for me. If countries have rigged elections, we shouldn't recognise their leaders.

    Next up, Turkey and Russia.
    Russia has rigged elections can be read 2 ways of course.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006

    From the Huffington blog:

    "Meanwhile, Nick Boles is facing the real threat of deselection by local party activists furious with his claim that he could resign the party whip in the event of a no-deal. The Times reports Boles is unfazed: “If they decide to kick me out of the Conservative Party, so be it.” Next week his local party will ask him to declare within 21 days whether he will seek “re-adoption” as its parliamentary candidate. His constituency chairman Philip Sagar said: “People want somebody who’s not in Notting Hill, who’ll turn up locally and reflect its views. They feel he’s not one of us.”

    Interesting that for all the talk of deselecting Labour MPs, nothing as concrete as this has actually happened (yet).

    I've litte sympathy for people who stood on a platform to leave doing their darnest to stop us leaving. Not sure if Boles fits that. He wants a single market and customs union option. If he explains that to his constituents he'll be fine.

    We voted to leave, but it is for parliament to honour that literal result, but how we leave, the time scale and the softness/hardness is for our representatives to use their judgement for.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    IanB2 said:

    So the more interesting, if even more unlikely, scenario is where the new grouping pulled across a batch of Tory remainers as well. The SDP tried to pull across Tories but as I recall only got one.

    Exactly. To think that only your opponents will suffer some event while you yourself will not shows an incredibly naivety.

    We are not in a ceteris paribus situation here - of course it is possible that some Cons MPs will bolt. Imagine the thought of being led by JRM, Leadsom, Boris, Baker, Francois, or even Raab. Plenty of Cons MPs in that case I believe might leave.
    But most of their activists and members wouldn't follow them. As Boles is about to discover....
    Maybe maybe not - maybe they'll pick up some disaffected with Corbyn-ers.

    As mentioned, ceteris paribus is not your friend here.
    What would the Scottish Conservatives do in those circumstances? Perhaps the split we should be looking for is geographic.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    Works to your tribe, keeps leavers been leavy and remainers been remainey.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,755
    edited February 2019
    "I should add that my predictions in the past on TMay calling early general elections have been wrong. I was as taken aback as anybody by her announcement in April 2017."

    Oh the price of being rational.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    Dadge said:

    eek said:

    Scott_P said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Chukka won't have the guts to quit and set up his own party in the end.

    That is probably true, but if an election is called what manifesto can Labour possibly agree on?
    What manifesto can any party currently agree on?
    If Brexit is done then the Tories are seemingly more united
    Hmm. I think that once Brexit is done, both parties will return to something approaching normality. (We saw at the 2017 election how quickly people and parties refocus on normal politics.) Local Labour and Tory parties may deselect a few wayward MPs but that won't affect national support, and FPTP makes any new centrist party virtually impossible to get off the ground.

    So the key window of interest remains this pre-Brexit period. It still looks like the crunch will come if and when May admits defeat over the backstop. She could go in the customs-union direction; this would mean halting Brexit for a while, and forming a cross-party alliance. Both of these things would be eminently sensible, but I don't think she could bring herself to do either.

    If she goes for another failed attempt at the meaningful vote, the Remainer wing in cabinet/party will rebel and god knows then what will happen. Politically very exciting. Terrible for the country. This has always been the awful truth about Brexit: it's debatable whether the UK should be in the EU or not - the problem is that leaving is far too messy to be worth it.
    How do middle class educated remain voting supporters change their allegiance back to the conservatives so easily? These changes might be quite sticky and continue for quite a number of years.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,879

    From the Huffington blog:

    Interesting that for all the talk of deselecting Labour MPs, nothing as concrete as this has actually happened (yet).

    Why do you think that is Nick? I can't understand why Kate Hoey isn't in more trouble.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    IanB2 said:

    So the more interesting, if even more unlikely, scenario is where the new grouping pulled across a batch of Tory remainers as well. The SDP tried to pull across Tories but as I recall only got one.

    Exactly. To think that only your opponents will suffer some event while you yourself will not shows an incredibly naivety.

    We are not in a ceteris paribus situation here - of course it is possible that some Cons MPs will bolt. Imagine the thought of being led by JRM, Leadsom, Boris, Baker, Francois, or even Raab. Plenty of Cons MPs in that case I believe might leave.
    But most of their activists and members wouldn't follow them. As Boles is about to discover....
    Maybe maybe not - maybe they'll pick up some disaffected with Corbyn-ers.

    As mentioned, ceteris paribus is not your friend here.
    What would the Scottish Conservatives do in those circumstances? Perhaps the split we should be looking for is geographic.
    Boles looks like he got most of the 2015 Kipper vote in 2017. They must be up for grabs if he isn't ejected and goes Brexisoft. So they need a hard Brexiter in his place and that will further increase the split probability.

    As for Scottish Cons - not at all sure, I mean @DavidL seems sensible enough but voted Leave so take nothing for granted.
  • notme2 said:

    From the Huffington blog:

    "Meanwhile, Nick Boles is facing the real threat of deselection by local party activists furious with his claim that he could resign the party whip in the event of a no-deal. The Times reports Boles is unfazed: “If they decide to kick me out of the Conservative Party, so be it.” Next week his local party will ask him to declare within 21 days whether he will seek “re-adoption” as its parliamentary candidate. His constituency chairman Philip Sagar said: “People want somebody who’s not in Notting Hill, who’ll turn up locally and reflect its views. They feel he’s not one of us.”

    Interesting that for all the talk of deselecting Labour MPs, nothing as concrete as this has actually happened (yet).

    I've litte sympathy for people who stood on a platform to leave doing their darnest to stop us leaving. Not sure if Boles fits that. He wants a single market and customs union option. If he explains that to his constituents he'll be fine.

    We voted to leave, but it is for parliament to honour that literal result, but how we leave, the time scale and the softness/hardness is for our representatives to use their judgement for.
    Didn't Boles actually vote for May's deal?
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    IanB2 said:

    So the more interesting, if even more unlikely, scenario is where the new grouping pulled across a batch of Tory remainers as well. The SDP tried to pull across Tories but as I recall only got one.

    Exactly. To think that only your opponents will suffer some event while you yourself will not shows an incredibly naivety.

    We are not in a ceteris paribus situation here - of course it is possible that some Cons MPs will bolt. Imagine the thought of being led by JRM, Leadsom, Boris, Baker, Francois, or even Raab. Plenty of Cons MPs in that case I believe might leave.
    But most of their activists and members wouldn't follow them. As Boles is about to discover....
    Maybe maybe not - maybe they'll pick up some disaffected with Corbyn-ers.

    As mentioned, ceteris paribus is not your friend here.
    What would the Scottish Conservatives do in those circumstances? Perhaps the split we should be looking for is geographic.
    Boles looks like he got most of the 2015 Kipper vote in 2017. They must be up for grabs if he isn't ejected and goes Brexisoft. So they need a hard Brexiter in his place and that will further increase the split probability.

    As for Scottish Cons - not at all sure, I mean @DavidL seems sensible enough but voted Leave so take nothing for granted.
    no, you need a good articulate MP who inspires confidence. A soft or hard brexit doesnt matter that much except to the puritans, We leave, we leave, detail is for the highly engaged.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006

    notme2 said:

    From the Huffington blog:

    "Meanwhile, Nick Boles is facing the real threat of deselection by local party activists furious with his claim that he could resign the party whip in the event of a no-deal. The Times reports Boles is unfazed: “If they decide to kick me out of the Conservative Party, so be it.” Next week his local party will ask him to declare within 21 days whether he will seek “re-adoption” as its parliamentary candidate. His constituency chairman Philip Sagar said: “People want somebody who’s not in Notting Hill, who’ll turn up locally and reflect its views. They feel he’s not one of us.”

    Interesting that for all the talk of deselecting Labour MPs, nothing as concrete as this has actually happened (yet).

    I've litte sympathy for people who stood on a platform to leave doing their darnest to stop us leaving. Not sure if Boles fits that. He wants a single market and customs union option. If he explains that to his constituents he'll be fine.

    We voted to leave, but it is for parliament to honour that literal result, but how we leave, the time scale and the softness/hardness is for our representatives to use their judgement for.
    Didn't Boles actually vote for May's deal?
    I think he has become a focus for dissent by some, when in fact he's much more nuanced. Soubs on the other hand is straight stay in and willing to do anything they can.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited February 2019
    I see with labour finances the issue is fall in those members paying their subs...I guess that’s the problem when you market to a generation of people used to and expect to get something for nothing.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,840
    notme2 said:

    We voted to leave, but it is for parliament to honour that literal result, but how we leave, the time scale and the softness/hardness is for our representatives to use their judgement for.

    Exactamundo. That is what they are there for.
  • Female genital mutilation (FGM) is increasingly being performed on babies and infants in the UK, the Victoria Derbyshire programme has been told.
  • kinabalu said:

    notme2 said:

    We voted to leave, but it is for parliament to honour that literal result, but how we leave, the time scale and the softness/hardness is for our representatives to use their judgement for.

    Exactamundo. That is what they are there for.
    And what a fine job they doing of it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,755

    eek said:

    On topic I see the story of an election as a false flag exercise

    - one of Labours weakest points is re-election as they have impending issues around deselection of moderate MPs, there would be pressure to crystallise an approach to Brexit, there are unrealistic expectations on the ability of the campaign to swing opinion.

    If the Observer and the Times have the story about Labour MPs planning to resign the whip, then the Tories have probably known for days or weeks.

    There aren't many times that would be auspicious for May to call an election, but one is the day after the Labour Party splits.
    Yes you are right and I hadn’t thought of that although I don’t think a new party would be popular, it might pull a small amount of votes away from Labour to lose seats, and it may also remove some of the accountability and common sense from the Labour side which might be unhelpful
    Even if the Labour party doesn't split I do wonder if they could afford to run (and staff) an election

    https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1092367788436606976
    Currently, Mr Corbyn’s office in Parliament now has more than 40 staff. Previous leader Ed Miliband had just under 20 staff in ‘peacetime’, and 27 even during the run up to the 2015 general election.
    I think that you are failing to appreciate that many of his close allies have children who are as employable as themselves with very limited options.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,755
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    IanB2 said:

    So the more interesting, if even more unlikely, scenario is where the new grouping pulled across a batch of Tory remainers as well. The SDP tried to pull across Tories but as I recall only got one.

    Exactly. To think that only your opponents will suffer some event while you yourself will not shows an incredibly naivety.

    We are not in a ceteris paribus situation here - of course it is possible that some Cons MPs will bolt. Imagine the thought of being led by JRM, Leadsom, Boris, Baker, Francois, or even Raab. Plenty of Cons MPs in that case I believe might leave.
    But most of their activists and members wouldn't follow them. As Boles is about to discover....
    Maybe maybe not - maybe they'll pick up some disaffected with Corbyn-ers.

    As mentioned, ceteris paribus is not your friend here.
    What would the Scottish Conservatives do in those circumstances? Perhaps the split we should be looking for is geographic.
    Boles looks like he got most of the 2015 Kipper vote in 2017. They must be up for grabs if he isn't ejected and goes Brexisoft. So they need a hard Brexiter in his place and that will further increase the split probability.

    As for Scottish Cons - not at all sure, I mean @DavidL seems sensible enough but voted Leave so take nothing for granted.
    LOL, thanks for that, I think.
  • I see with labour finances the issue is fall in those members paying their subs...I guess that’s the problem when you market to a generation of people used to and expect to get something for nothing.

    What exactly is the something they got?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,755

    I see with labour finances the issue is fall in those members paying their subs...I guess that’s the problem when you market to a generation of people used to and expect to get something for nothing.

    In fairness my understanding is that political parties normally run a loss in years where there is no election and raising cash is difficult with the books then being balanced when an election comes around. The fall in Labour income looks a complete non story to me.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited February 2019

    I see with labour finances the issue is fall in those members paying their subs...I guess that’s the problem when you market to a generation of people used to and expect to get something for nothing.

    What exactly is the something they got?
    They have grown up with things Music, films , etc for free...the youth of today overwhelmingly watch YouTube rather than tv, which is obviously “free”.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    notme2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    IanB2 said:

    So the more interesting, if even more unlikely, scenario is where the new grouping pulled across a batch of Tory remainers as well. The SDP tried to pull across Tories but as I recall only got one.

    Exactly. To think that only your opponents will suffer some event while you yourself will not shows an incredibly naivety.

    We are not in a ceteris paribus situation here - of course it is possible that some Cons MPs will bolt. Imagine the thought of being led by JRM, Leadsom, Boris, Baker, Francois, or even Raab. Plenty of Cons MPs in that case I believe might leave.
    But most of their activists and members wouldn't follow them. As Boles is about to discover....
    Maybe maybe not - maybe they'll pick up some disaffected with Corbyn-ers.

    As mentioned, ceteris paribus is not your friend here.
    What would the Scottish Conservatives do in those circumstances? Perhaps the split we should be looking for is geographic.
    Boles looks like he got most of the 2015 Kipper vote in 2017. They must be up for grabs if he isn't ejected and goes Brexisoft. So they need a hard Brexiter in his place and that will further increase the split probability.

    As for Scottish Cons - not at all sure, I mean @DavidL seems sensible enough but voted Leave so take nothing for granted.
    no, you need a good articulate MP who inspires confidence. A soft or hard brexit doesnt matter that much except to the puritans, We leave, we leave, detail is for the highly engaged.
    Plenty of puritans it seems in his constituency. I don't buy the "leaving Brexit aside" line. Everything is about Brexit and the flavour thereof.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited February 2019
    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1092385454706622464

    At the very least the Tories are beginning to nail the art of going viral...

    Edit: Nadine Dorries isn't trending quite yet but it has potential IMO.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    notme2 said:

    How do middle class educated remain voting supporters change their allegiance back to the conservatives so easily?

    They don't
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    IanB2 said:

    So the more interesting, if even more unlikely, scenario is where the new grouping pulled across a batch of Tory remainers as well. The SDP tried to pull across Tories but as I recall only got one.

    Exactly. To think that only your opponents will suffer some event while you yourself will not shows an incredibly naivety.

    We are not in a ceteris paribus situation here - of course it is possible that some Cons MPs will bolt. Imagine the thought of being led by JRM, Leadsom, Boris, Baker, Francois, or even Raab. Plenty of Cons MPs in that case I believe might leave.
    But most of their activists and members wouldn't follow them. As Boles is about to discover....
    Maybe maybe not - maybe they'll pick up some disaffected with Corbyn-ers.

    As mentioned, ceteris paribus is not your friend here.
    What would the Scottish Conservatives do in those circumstances? Perhaps the split we should be looking for is geographic.
    Boles looks like he got most of the 2015 Kipper vote in 2017. They must be up for grabs if he isn't ejected and goes Brexisoft. So they need a hard Brexiter in his place and that will further increase the split probability.

    As for Scottish Cons - not at all sure, I mean @DavidL seems sensible enough but voted Leave so take nothing for granted.
    LOL, thanks for that, I think.
    :smile:
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    TOPPING said:

    notme2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    IanB2 said:

    So the more interesting, if even more unlikely, scenario is where the new grouping pulled across a batch of Tory remainers as well. The SDP tried to pull across Tories but as I recall only got one.

    Exactly. To think that only your opponents will suffer some event while you yourself will not shows an incredibly naivety.

    We are not in a ceteris paribus situation here - of course it is possible that some Cons MPs will bolt. Imagine the thought of being led by JRM, Leadsom, Boris, Baker, Francois, or even Raab. Plenty of Cons MPs in that case I believe might leave.
    But most of their activists and members wouldn't follow them. As Boles is about to discover....
    Maybe maybe not - maybe they'll pick up some disaffected with Corbyn-ers.

    As mentioned, ceteris paribus is not your friend here.
    What would the Scottish Conservatives do in those circumstances? Perhaps the split we should be looking for is geographic.
    Boles looks like he got most of the 2015 Kipper vote in 2017. They must be up for grabs if he isn't ejected and goes Brexisoft. So they need a hard Brexiter in his place and that will further increase the split probability.

    As for Scottish Cons - not at all sure, I mean @DavidL seems sensible enough but voted Leave so take nothing for granted.
    no, you need a good articulate MP who inspires confidence. A soft or hard brexit doesnt matter that much except to the puritans, We leave, we leave, detail is for the highly engaged.
    Plenty of puritans it seems in his constituency. I don't buy the "leaving Brexit aside" line. Everything is about Brexit and the flavour thereof.
    But if it is agreed then you can partly discount Brexit
  • DavidL said:

    I see with labour finances the issue is fall in those members paying their subs...I guess that’s the problem when you market to a generation of people used to and expect to get something for nothing.

    In fairness my understanding is that political parties normally run a loss in years where there is no election and raising cash is difficult with the books then being balanced when an election comes around. The fall in Labour income looks a complete non story to me.
    Well it is also a non-story because if needs be uncle ken will Open the cheque book for any GE.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,755
    I need to go and get on but I thought that this was vastly more interesting than the other tedium on the Today program today: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47110934

    Basically a deal between the GMB and Hermes which gives a lot of the rights that gig economy workers frequently lack. Well done to the GMB. This strikes me as a really useful way of making unions relevant to the private sector in this century. I hope it sets a precedent and indeed a model for any future regulation of the sector.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,122
    IanB2 said:

    From the Huffington blog:

    "Meanwhile, Nick Boles is facing the real threat of deselection by local party activists furious with his claim that he could resign the party whip in the event of a no-deal. The Times reports Boles is unfazed: “If they decide to kick me out of the Conservative Party, so be it.” Next week his local party will ask him to declare within 21 days whether he will seek “re-adoption” as its parliamentary candidate. His constituency chairman Philip Sagar said: “People want somebody who’s not in Notting Hill, who’ll turn up locally and reflect its views. They feel he’s not one of us.”

    Interesting that for all the talk of deselecting Labour MPs, nothing as concrete as this has actually happened (yet).

    He could have cover - from the RP article below:

    "And what a significant number of ministers tell me is that there will be mass government walkouts on or before 14 February – to take advantage of that next available date to vote to rule out a no-deal Brexit – unless before then the PM publicly announces an intention to negotiate with the EU a postponement of Brexit day of at least three months.
    Yes - that was basically my point earlier. The ERG need to fall in behind May's deal or Brexit will be delayed and the next stage of voting in the H/C will likely coalesce around a softer Brexit deal with some form of Customs Union. I'm a dyed in the wool Tory and would be content with that result but the ERG certainly won't be.
  • I see with labour finances the issue is fall in those members paying their subs...I guess that’s the problem when you market to a generation of people used to and expect to get something for nothing.

    What exactly is the something they got?
    They have grown up with things Music, films , etc for free...the youth of today overwhelmingly watch YouTube rather than tv, which is obviously “free”.
    I was thinking more of the return on their subs to Labour...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,755

    DavidL said:

    I see with labour finances the issue is fall in those members paying their subs...I guess that’s the problem when you market to a generation of people used to and expect to get something for nothing.

    In fairness my understanding is that political parties normally run a loss in years where there is no election and raising cash is difficult with the books then being balanced when an election comes around. The fall in Labour income looks a complete non story to me.
    Well it is also a non-story because if needs be uncle ken will Open the cheque book for any GE.
    Indeed. To describe it as a bubble story is unkind to bubbles.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    notme2 said:

    Dadge said:

    eek said:

    Scott_P said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Chukka won't have the guts to quit and set up his own party in the end.

    That is probably true, but if an election is called what manifesto can Labour possibly agree on?
    What manifesto can any party currently agree on?
    If Brexit is done then the Tories are seemingly more united
    Hmm. I think that once Brexit is done, both parties will return to something approaching normality. (We saw at the 2017 election how quickly people and parties refocus on normal politics.) Local Labour and Tory parties may deselect a few wayward MPs but that won't affect national support, and FPTP makes any new centrist party virtually impossible to get off the ground.

    So the key window of interest remains this pre-Brexit period. It still looks like the crunch will come if and when May admits defeat over the backstop. She could go in the customs-union direction; this would mean halting Brexit for a while, and forming a cross-party alliance. Both of these things would be eminently sensible, but I don't think she could bring herself to do either.

    If she goes for another failed attempt at the meaningful vote, the Remainer wing in cabinet/party will rebel and god knows then what will happen. Politically very exciting. Terrible for the country. This has always been the awful truth about Brexit: it's debatable whether the UK should be in the EU or not - the problem is that leaving is far too messy to be worth it.
    How do middle class educated remain voting supporters change their allegiance back to the conservatives so easily? These changes might be quite sticky and continue for quite a number of years.
    According to the polls, enough of them have stuck with the party to allow it to remain electable. If Brexit gets worse, and/or if the LibDems or Labour get their act together, that might change.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,955

    I see with labour finances the issue is fall in those members paying their subs...I guess that’s the problem when you market to a generation of people used to and expect to get something for nothing.

    What exactly is the something they got?
    Hoodwinked on Brexit....?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited February 2019

    I see with labour finances the issue is fall in those members paying their subs...I guess that’s the problem when you market to a generation of people used to and expect to get something for nothing.

    What exactly is the something they got?
    They have grown up with things Music, films , etc for free...the youth of today overwhelmingly watch YouTube rather than tv, which is obviously “free”.
    I was thinking more of the return on their subs to Labour...
    Discount on a crap music festival? Hmm..

    Supporting a party doing everything to stop Brexit? Hmmm

    I think I have found out why they aren't paying their sub...
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,122

    I see with labour finances the issue is fall in those members paying their subs...I guess that’s the problem when you market to a generation of people used to and expect to get something for nothing.

    TBF when paying into the Labour party they were getting nothing for something!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,955
    notme2 said:

    From the Huffington blog:

    "Meanwhile, Nick Boles is facing the real threat of deselection by local party activists furious with his claim that he could resign the party whip in the event of a no-deal. The Times reports Boles is unfazed: “If they decide to kick me out of the Conservative Party, so be it.” Next week his local party will ask him to declare within 21 days whether he will seek “re-adoption” as its parliamentary candidate. His constituency chairman Philip Sagar said: “People want somebody who’s not in Notting Hill, who’ll turn up locally and reflect its views. They feel he’s not one of us.”

    Interesting that for all the talk of deselecting Labour MPs, nothing as concrete as this has actually happened (yet).

    I've litte sympathy for people who stood on a platform to leave doing their darnest to stop us leaving. Not sure if Boles fits that. He wants a single market and customs union option. If he explains that to his constituents he'll be fine.

    We voted to leave, but it is for parliament to honour that literal result, but how we leave, the time scale and the softness/hardness is for our representatives to use their judgement for.
    But he still stood on a Manifesto that pledged no CU. As did all Tory MPs.

    Backtrack on that and they are screwed.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    DavidL said:

    I need to go and get on but I thought that this was vastly more interesting than the other tedium on the Today program today: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47110934

    Basically a deal between the GMB and Hermes which gives a lot of the rights that gig economy workers frequently lack. Well done to the GMB. This strikes me as a really useful way of making unions relevant to the private sector in this century. I hope it sets a precedent and indeed a model for any future regulation of the sector.

    Until those workers, AIUI, find out they will be paying more tax for benefits in kind...
  • Readers, he does not in fact look like Chris Eubank.

    https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/321618304567488512
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited February 2019
    Dadge said:

    notme2 said:

    Dadge said:

    eek said:

    Scott_P said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Chukka won't have the guts to quit and set up his own party in the end.

    That is probably true, but if an election is called what manifesto can Labour possibly agree on?
    What manifesto can any party currently agree on?
    If Brexit is done then the Tories are seemingly more united
    Hmm. I think that once Brexit is done, both parties will return to something approaching normality. (We saw at the 2017 election how quickly people and parties refocus on normal politics.) Local Labour and Tory parties may deselect a few wayward MPs but that won't affect national support, and FPTP makes any new centrist party virtually impossible to get off the ground.

    So the key window of interest remains this pre-Brexit period. It still looks like the crunch will come if and when May admits defeat over the backstop. She could go in the customs-union direction; this would mean halting Brexit for a while, and forming a cross-party alliance. Both of these things would be eminently sensible, but I don't think she could bring herself to do either.

    If she goes for another failed attempt at the meaningful vote, the Remainer wing in cabinet/party will rebel and god knows then what will happen. Politically very exciting. Terrible for the country. This has always been the awful truth about Brexit: it's debatable whether the UK should be in the EU or not - the problem is that leaving is far too messy to be worth it.
    How do middle class educated remain voting supporters change their allegiance back to the conservatives so easily? These changes might be quite sticky and continue for quite a number of years.
    According to the polls, enough of them have stuck with the party to allow it to remain electable. If Brexit gets worse, and/or if the LibDems or Labour get their act together, that might change.
    I have stuck with them in the sense of having voted for them in 2017. Since then? S'all about Jezza. The longer he stays where he is, the stickier I am.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    Dadge said:

    eek said:

    Scott_P said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Chukka won't have the guts to quit and set up his own party in the end.

    That is probably true, but if an election is called what manifesto can Labour possibly agree on?
    What manifesto can any party currently agree on?
    If Brexit is done then the Tories are seemingly more united
    snip
    .This has always been the awful truth about Brexit: it's debatable whether the UK should be in the EU or not - the problem is that leaving is far too messy to be worth it.
    This is a very good point and articulates almost perfectly my Remain vote in 2016. The problem is this describes the issue pre referendum. It is now complicated by the result, and the seemingly high proportion of people whose opinion is that no deal is the best option!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    edited February 2019
    felix said:

    IanB2 said:

    From the Huffington blog:

    "Meanwhile, Nick Boles is facing the real threat of deselection by local party activists furious with his claim that he could resign the party whip in the event of a no-deal. The Times reports Boles is unfazed: “If they decide to kick me out of the Conservative Party, so be it.” Next week his local party will ask him to declare within 21 days whether he will seek “re-adoption” as its parliamentary candidate. His constituency chairman Philip Sagar said: “People want somebody who’s not in Notting Hill, who’ll turn up locally and reflect its views. They feel he’s not one of us.”

    Interesting that for all the talk of deselecting Labour MPs, nothing as concrete as this has actually happened (yet).

    He could have cover - from the RP article below:

    "And what a significant number of ministers tell me is that there will be mass government walkouts on or before 14 February – to take advantage of that next available date to vote to rule out a no-deal Brexit – unless before then the PM publicly announces an intention to negotiate with the EU a postponement of Brexit day of at least three months.
    Yes - that was basically my point earlier. The ERG need to fall in behind May's deal or Brexit will be delayed and the next stage of voting in the H/C will likely coalesce around a softer Brexit deal with some form of Customs Union. I'm a dyed in the wool Tory and would be content with that result but the ERG certainly won't be.
    They would only have themselves to blame.

    Some of the language coming from the ultras in the ERG, including references to the war, are just unforgiveable and I hope the HOC reduces them to an irrelevance as we seek to leave

    And I am a conservative party member
  • Readers, he does not in fact look like Chris Eubank.

    https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/321618304567488512

    Bizarre...Chuka looks nothing like Eubank Snr or Jnr.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    Dadge said:

    notme2 said:

    Dadge said:

    eek said:

    Scott_P said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Chukka won't have the guts to quit and set up his own party in the end.

    That is probably true, but if an election is called what manifesto can Labour possibly agree on?
    What manifesto can any party currently agree on?
    If Brexit is done then the Tories are seemingly more united
    Hmm. I think that once Brexit is done, both parties will return to something approaching normality. (We saw at the 2017 election how quickly people and parties refocus on normal politics.) Local Labour and Tory parties may deselect a few wayward MPs but that won't affect national support, and FPTP makes any new centrist party virtually impossible to get off the ground.

    So the key window of interest remains this pre-Brexit period. It still looks like the crunch will come if and when May admits defeat over the backstop. She could go in the customs-union direction; this would mean halting Brexit for a while, and forming a cross-party alliance. Both of these things would be eminently sensible, but I don't think she could bring herself to do either.

    If she goes for another failed attempt at the meaningful vote, the Remainer wing in cabinet/party will rebel and god knows then what will happen. Politically very exciting. Terrible for the country. This has always been the awful truth about Brexit: it's debatable whether the UK should be in the EU or not - the problem is that leaving is far too messy to be worth it.
    How do middle class educated remain voting supporters change their allegiance back to the conservatives so easily? These changes might be quite sticky and continue for quite a number of years.
    According to the polls, enough of them have stuck with the party to allow it to remain electable. If Brexit gets worse, and/or if the LibDems or Labour get their act together, that might change.
    Here is the Hobson choice, Brexit shocking the economy or Corbyn shocking the 3conomy
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    Readers, he does not in fact look like Chris Eubank.

    https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/321618304567488512

    Junior at the most stretchiest of stretches. But no. He doesn't.

    Still it shows she knows less about boxing than racial stereotyping.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    DavidL said:

    I need to go and get on but I thought that this was vastly more interesting than the other tedium on the Today program today: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47110934

    Basically a deal between the GMB and Hermes which gives a lot of the rights that gig economy workers frequently lack. Well done to the GMB. This strikes me as a really useful way of making unions relevant to the private sector in this century. I hope it sets a precedent and indeed a model for any future regulation of the sector.

    HMRC should insist Hermes pays employer’s NI.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,956
    edited February 2019

    Readers, he does not in fact look like Chris Eubank.

    https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/321618304567488512

    The question is does anyone sound like Chris Eubank?

    We all know how much Nadine likes posh boys.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557

    Readers, he does not in fact look like Chris Eubank.

    https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/321618304567488512

    Would I be imbecilist if I said Dorries is an imbecile ?

  • Nigelb said:

    Readers, he does not in fact look like Chris Eubank.

    https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/321618304567488512

    Would I be imbecilist if I said Dorries is an imbecile ?

    No.

    She’s so dense light bends around her.
  • Scott_P said:
    Lol! The Sir Humphrey remark about not believing anything until it is officially denied.....

    You planning to be at the Festival this year?
  • Readers, he does not in fact look like Chris Eubank.

    https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/321618304567488512

    Bizarre...Chuka looks nothing like Eubank Snr or Jnr.
    Remember that Kipper lady that said she wasn’t a racist but she didn’t like people with negroid features.
  • notme2 said:

    From the Huffington blog:

    "Meanwhile, Nick Boles is facing the real threat of deselection by local party activists furious with his claim that he could resign the party whip in the event of a no-deal. The Times reports Boles is unfazed: “If they decide to kick me out of the Conservative Party, so be it.” Next week his local party will ask him to declare within 21 days whether he will seek “re-adoption” as its parliamentary candidate. His constituency chairman Philip Sagar said: “People want somebody who’s not in Notting Hill, who’ll turn up locally and reflect its views. They feel he’s not one of us.”

    Interesting that for all the talk of deselecting Labour MPs, nothing as concrete as this has actually happened (yet).

    I've litte sympathy for people who stood on a platform to leave doing their darnest to stop us leaving. Not sure if Boles fits that. He wants a single market and customs union option. If he explains that to his constituents he'll be fine.

    We voted to leave, but it is for parliament to honour that literal result, but how we leave, the time scale and the softness/hardness is for our representatives to use their judgement for.
    I agree. As long as Boles supports some form of leave then he has fulfilled his obligation and promise to his constituents. What form that Leave takes should be entirely a matter for his own conscience unless he has claimed in the past (by which I mean at a time that might influence his election) that he favours No Deal.

    As long as he does not prevent us leaving he should not be attacked for his position by his own constituency party.

    If he does vote against us leaving in the end then he deserves all he gets.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,122

    Readers, he does not in fact look like Chris Eubank.

    https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/321618304567488512

    Bizarre...Chuka looks nothing like Eubank Snr or Jnr.
    TBF I think there are resemblances. But really who cares? Poor eyesight is not racism. There are much better things to criticise Nadine for than rrrraaaaccciiisssmmm.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    You planning to be at the Festival this year?

    Yes, Wednesday.
This discussion has been closed.