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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The battle between LAB & CON viewed through the perspective of

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited February 4 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The battle between LAB & CON viewed through the perspective of their leader’s approval ratings since GE2017

I have been meaning to compile this for sometime – how Corbyn and May compare with each other month by month based on the Opinium leader approval ratings. The pollster is the only one that asks this question in every survey it does for the Observer though the figures often don’t get reported.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 10,601
    OT already. David Gauke's intimation this morning that we might delay Brexit used the phrase "smooth and orderly" twice, thus referencing the 2017 manifesto which used it four times.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 19,136
    FPT to RCS
    rcs1000 said:

    There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.

    Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?
    I mean there will be no checks.

    Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
    The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
    The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.

    If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.

    If the bluff gets called then there's no need to deal with the border issue as its already not getting dealt with. Instead there's a need to fix the fact they have a gaping hole in their Single Market to a non-member. Which is best dealt with by a deal we can and will ratify - which means no backstop.

    Only way a backstop remains after no deal is if the border gets enforced (won't happen) or we suffer so much we go back on bended knees desperate for anything (won't happen either).
  • ChrisChris Posts: 2,341

    FPT to RCS

    rcs1000 said:

    There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.

    Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?
    I mean there will be no checks.

    Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
    The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
    The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.

    If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.
    So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 16,806
    Fourth like Boris
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,918
    Interesting chart. So May is still not as popular (net) as Corbyn was in June/July 17?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 16,806
    DavidL said:

    Interesting chart. So May is still not as popular (net) as Corbyn was in June/July 17?

    But the chart is popularity relative to each other, from which you cant determine either of their actual popularity scores
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 19,136
    Chris said:

    FPT to RCS

    rcs1000 said:

    There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.

    Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?
    I mean there will be no checks.

    Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
    The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
    The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.

    If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.
    So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?
    No.

    Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,918
    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    Interesting chart. So May is still not as popular (net) as Corbyn was in June/July 17?

    But the chart is popularity relative to each other, from which you cant determine either of their actual popularity scores
    You can determine their relative popularity and Corbyn in June/July 17 was relatively more popular than May is now.

    Not since the country went daft over Bambi in 97 have we had a genuinely popular politician. We don't like any of them and for good reasons.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 5,014
    This series I think is really only measuring how popular leaders are with their own parties and natural supporters, since neither leader attracts much cross party support.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 2,341

    Chris said:

    FPT to RCS

    rcs1000 said:

    There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.

    Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?
    I mean there will be no checks.

    Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
    The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
    The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.

    If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.
    So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?
    No.

    Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.
    You're saying Ireland _isn't_ pretending it wants a backstop? Ireland really does want a backstop?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,918
    rkrkrk said:

    This series I think is really only measuring how popular leaders are with their own parties and natural supporters, since neither leader attracts much cross party support.

    Hmm...you think May is currently popular in the Conservative party?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 19,136
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    FPT to RCS

    rcs1000 said:

    There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.

    Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?
    I mean there will be no checks.

    Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
    The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
    The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.

    If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.
    So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?
    No.

    Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.
    You're saying Ireland _isn't_ pretending it wants a backstop? Ireland really does want a backstop?
    Yes. 100%.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 33,790
    DavidL said:

    rkrkrk said:

    This series I think is really only measuring how popular leaders are with their own parties and natural supporters, since neither leader attracts much cross party support.

    Hmm...you think May is currently popular in the Conservative party?
    I am not sure she is even that popular in her own household.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 2,341

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    FPT to RCS

    rcs1000 said:

    There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.

    Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?
    I mean there will be no checks.

    Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
    The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
    The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.

    If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.
    So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?
    No.

    Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.
    You're saying Ireland _isn't_ pretending it wants a backstop? Ireland really does want a backstop?
    Yes. 100%.
    It wants a deadline by which it has to stop having its cake and eating it?

    Can't you ring up Mr Varadkar and explain all this to him, and then the whole problem will be solved?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,918

    DavidL said:

    rkrkrk said:

    This series I think is really only measuring how popular leaders are with their own parties and natural supporters, since neither leader attracts much cross party support.

    Hmm...you think May is currently popular in the Conservative party?
    I am not sure she is even that popular in her own household.
    Not sure why you would say that. Philip seems immensely supportive of her to me.
  • OT already. David Gauke's intimation this morning that we might delay Brexit used the phrase "smooth and orderly" twice, thus referencing the 2017 manifesto which used it four times.

    This is "orderly" in the sense of "person who puts your straitjacket on".
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 1,462

    Chris said:

    FPT to RCS

    rcs1000 said:

    There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.

    Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?
    I mean there will be no checks.

    Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
    The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
    The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.

    If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.
    So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?
    No.

    Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.
    What choice will Ireland have? Without any immigration, customs and tariff agreements, border checkpoints will be needed where (some if not all) passports and goods are checked.
  • eekeek Posts: 3,387
    Scott_P said:
    And your typical Labour Northern Leave seat would vote Labour even if the candidate was a half-dead baboon provided said baboon was wearing a Red Rosette.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 16,806
    eek said:

    Scott_P said:
    And your typical Labour Northern Leave seat would vote Labour even if the candidate was a half-dead baboon provided said baboon was wearing a Red Rosette.
    Over the years there are a reasonable number that have been lost to the LibDems, including in Liverpool, Manchester, Stockport, Leeds, Bradford, Sheffield and Chesterfield.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 17,404

    Chris said:

    FPT to RCS

    rcs1000 said:

    There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.

    Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?
    I mean there will be no checks.

    Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
    The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
    The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.

    If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.
    So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?
    No.

    Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.
    Jesus (Jaysus) H Christ will you please take some time to understand who will or won't erect a hard border in Northern Ireland.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 14,488
    eek said:

    Scott_P said:
    And your typical Labour Northern Leave seat would vote Labour even if the candidate was a half-dead baboon provided said baboon was wearing a Red Rosette.
    To be fair, there are some Tory seats which fall into that category, too. Only the rosette would, of course, be blue. Rayleigh/Wickford for example.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 19,136
    Dadge said:

    Chris said:

    FPT to RCS

    rcs1000 said:

    There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.

    Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?
    I mean there will be no checks.

    Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
    The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
    The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.

    If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.
    So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?
    No.

    Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.
    What choice will Ireland have? Without any immigration, customs and tariff agreements, border checkpoints will be needed where (some if not all) passports and goods are checked.
    And if they point blank refuse to do so, then who is going to force the matter and how?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 19,136
    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    FPT to RCS

    rcs1000 said:

    There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.

    Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?
    I mean there will be no checks.

    Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
    The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
    The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.

    If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.
    So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?
    No.

    Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.
    Jesus (Jaysus) H Christ will you please take some time to understand who will or won't erect a hard border in Northern Ireland.
    Nobody will. End of story.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 19,136
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    FPT to RCS

    rcs1000 said:

    There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.

    Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?
    I mean there will be no checks.

    Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
    The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
    The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.

    If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.
    So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?
    No.

    Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.
    You're saying Ireland _isn't_ pretending it wants a backstop? Ireland really does want a backstop?
    Yes. 100%.
    It wants a deadline by which it has to stop having its cake and eating it?

    Can't you ring up Mr Varadkar and explain all this to him, and then the whole problem will be solved?
    It doesn't want to be in a position where it is compelled to eat cake and have it too.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 834
    eek said:

    Scott_P said:
    And your typical Labour Northern Leave seat would vote Labour even if the candidate was a half-dead baboon provided said baboon was wearing a Red Rosette.
    The voters of Copeland and Middlesbrough say otherwise....
  • ChrisChris Posts: 2,341

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    FPT to RCS

    rcs1000 said:

    There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.

    Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?
    I mean there will be no checks.

    Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
    The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
    The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.

    If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.
    So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?
    No.

    Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.
    You're saying Ireland _isn't_ pretending it wants a backstop? Ireland really does want a backstop?
    Yes. 100%.
    It wants a deadline by which it has to stop having its cake and eating it?

    Can't you ring up Mr Varadkar and explain all this to him, and then the whole problem will be solved?
    It doesn't want to be in a position where it is compelled to eat cake and have it too.
    Or looking at it another way, a position where it is compelled to choose between having a hard border with Northern Ireland and breaking its treaty obligations to the European Union?

    That would certainly make Ireland's position more comprehensible than your cake metaphor.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 19,136
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    FPT to RCS

    rcs1000 said:

    There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.

    Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?
    I mean there will be no checks.

    Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
    The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
    The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.

    If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.
    So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?
    No.

    Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.
    You're saying Ireland _isn't_ pretending it wants a backstop? Ireland really does want a backstop?
    Yes. 100%.
    It wants a deadline by which it has to stop having its cake and eating it?

    Can't you ring up Mr Varadkar and explain all this to him, and then the whole problem will be solved?
    It doesn't want to be in a position where it is compelled to eat cake and have it too.
    Or looking at it another way, a position where it is compelled to choose between having a hard border with Northern Ireland and breaking its treaty obligations to the European Union?

    That would certainly make Ireland's position more comprehensible than your cake metaphor.
    Same thing. The whole cake metaphor has been invoked all along this process to mean that.

    But if a no deal scenario happens then Ireland will break its obligations before it erects a border. If the UK doesn't come to heel then the only way to get out of the mess will be a deal which means no backstop.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,596
    Guten Abend, meine Freunde.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 2,012
    That's a big lead for May over Corbyn. Bet she's itching to call a general election. Because just imagine if you can the deep and intensely personal sense of redemption, vindication, potency, triumph and euphoria with which her entire being would be suffused if she does so and wins an overall majority of, say, 50 seats. Imagine her at Tory HQ the morning after being cheered to the rafters and given the bumps by hordes of delirious shiny-eyed activists almost as if she were a winning FA Cup final manager. Perhaps you can't imagine it, but I assure you that she can. She thinks of little else. Keeps it secret no doubt, probably not even told hubby, but she is obsessed with the idea. Snap election to break the impasse on the deal. This is why she isn't trying that hard to get it through. In fact she is not trying at all, she's only pretending to. She likes the impasse. She wants to be forced to call a general election. Well, sorry but the secret's out now. We all know what her little game is. She is BUSTED.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 29,116

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    FPT to RCS

    rcs1000 said:

    There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.

    Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?
    I mean there will be no checks.

    Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
    The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
    The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.

    If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.
    So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?
    No.

    Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.
    You're saying Ireland _isn't_ pretending it wants a backstop? Ireland really does want a backstop?
    Yes. 100%.
    It wants a deadline by which it has to stop having its cake and eating it?

    Can't you ring up Mr Varadkar and explain all this to him, and then the whole problem will be solved?
    It doesn't want to be in a position where it is compelled to eat cake and have it too.
    Or looking at it another way, a position where it is compelled to choose between having a hard border with Northern Ireland and breaking its treaty obligations to the European Union?

    That would certainly make Ireland's position more comprehensible than your cake metaphor.
    Same thing. The whole cake metaphor has been invoked all along this process to mean that.

    But if a no deal scenario happens then Ireland will break its obligations before it erects a border. If the UK doesn't come to heel then the only way to get out of the mess will be a deal which means no backstop.

    I agree that the Irish are not going to put up any barriers when we go to No Deal. They would be mad to. But that is not going to help the UK.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 29,116
    Of course, there is a very simple solution to the backstop issue. Ask the people of Northern Ireland whether they are OK with it applying just to them. The reason this is not going to happen is because they will supply the wrong answer: Yes.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 5,805
    edited February 4
    Help! To the accountants and business owners on here:

    Does anyone know how long it takes to get a certificate of tax residency for a limited company?

    Bloody Indian bureaucracy screwing up my cash flow...
  • eekeek Posts: 3,387
    edited February 4
    notme2 said:

    eek said:

    Scott_P said:
    And your typical Labour Northern Leave seat would vote Labour even if the candidate was a half-dead baboon provided said baboon was wearing a Red Rosette.
    The voters of Copeland and Middlesbrough say otherwise....
    Boro has always been a labour seat, and Stockton South is in many ways a North Yorkshire seat.

    Assuming you actually mean Redcar than 2010 was a very poorly timed election locally (with the closure of the steelworks) and it returned to Labour in 2015...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 4,005
    kinabalu said:

    That's a big lead for May over Corbyn. Bet she's itching to call a general election. Because just imagine if you can the deep and intensely personal sense of redemption, vindication, potency, triumph and euphoria with which her entire being would be suffused if she does so and wins an overall majority of, say, 50 seats. Imagine her at Tory HQ the morning after being cheered to the rafters and given the bumps by hordes of delirious shiny-eyed activists almost as if she were a winning FA Cup final manager. Perhaps you can't imagine it, but I assure you that she can. She thinks of little else. Keeps it secret no doubt, probably not even told hubby, but she is obsessed with the idea. Snap election to break the impasse on the deal. This is why she isn't trying that hard to get it through. In fact she is not trying at all, she's only pretending to. She likes the impasse. She wants to be forced to call a general election. Well, sorry but the secret's out now. We all know what her little game is. She is BUSTED.

    You may be onto something there. I would similarly love to play up front for Everton and score a hat trick in a Mersey Derby.
    Fortunately, saner forces are preventing me having a go.
  • TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    FPT to RCS

    rcs1000 said:

    There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.

    Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?
    I mean there will be no checks.

    Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
    The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
    The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.

    If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.
    So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?
    No.

    Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.
    Jesus (Jaysus) H Christ will you please take some time to understand who will or won't erect a hard border in Northern Ireland.
    Nobody will. End of story.
    The EU will if we no deal. They will have no choice. I think this game of chicken is very dangerous because in both deal and no deal the EU have to agree a solution for the border

    And I do not support ERG at all, in case I am accused, as I was yesterday believe or not, of being a hard brexiteer
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 1,462

    Dadge said:

    Chris said:

    FPT to RCS

    rcs1000 said:

    There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.

    Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?
    I mean there will be no checks.

    Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
    The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
    The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.

    If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.
    So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?
    No.

    Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.
    What choice will Ireland have? Without any immigration, customs and tariff agreements, border checkpoints will be needed where (some if not all) passports and goods are checked.
    And if they point blank refuse to do so, then who is going to force the matter and how?
    I assume that the EU would take Ireland to court since it would be in breach of its responsibilities. It would probably also be necessary to instigate checks of goods and people from Ireland to the rest of the EU.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 4,005
    eek said:

    notme2 said:

    eek said:

    Scott_P said:
    And your typical Labour Northern Leave seat would vote Labour even if the candidate was a half-dead baboon provided said baboon was wearing a Red Rosette.
    The voters of Copeland and Middlesbrough say otherwise....
    Boro has always been a labour seat, and Stockton South is in many ways a North Yorkshire seat.

    Assuming you actually mean Redcar than 2010 was a very poorly timed election locally (with the closure of the steelworks) and it returned to Labour in 2015...
    I think he means Boro S and Cleveland East. Which is a relatively small bit of Boro, and a rather larger bit of rural area similar politically to N Yorkshire.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 2,012
    dixiedean said:

    You may be onto something there. I would similarly love to play up front for Everton and score a hat trick in a Mersey Derby.
    Fortunately, saner forces are preventing me having a go.

    Yes, that is the big difference. She can pick herself regardless of ability or form.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 1,462

    Of course, there is a very simple solution to the backstop issue. Ask the people of Northern Ireland whether they are OK with it applying just to them. The reason this is not going to happen is because they will supply the wrong answer: Yes.

    This is a good point that journalists skirt over. The DUP is holding us all to ransom.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 23,255
    edited February 4
    kinabalu said:

    That's a big lead for May over Corbyn. Bet she's itching to call a general election. Because just imagine if you can the deep and intensely personal sense of redemption, vindication, potency, triumph and euphoria with which her entire being would be suffused if she does so and wins an overall majority of, say, 50 seats. Imagine her at Tory HQ the morning after being cheered to the rafters and given the bumps by hordes of delirious shiny-eyed activists almost as if she were a winning FA Cup final manager. Perhaps you can't imagine it, but I assure you that she can. She thinks of little else. Keeps it secret no doubt, probably not even told hubby, but she is obsessed with the idea. Snap election to break the impasse on the deal. This is why she isn't trying that hard to get it through. In fact she is not trying at all, she's only pretending to. She likes the impasse. She wants to be forced to call a general election. Well, sorry but the secret's out now. We all know what her little game is. She is BUSTED.

    With respect you do seem to be willing a GE but it is not in TM power to call one. The cabinet would not support it and nor would her mps, and without them you cannot get 434 mps to vote for dissolution
  • TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    FPT to RCS

    rcs1000 said:

    There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.

    Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?
    I mean there will be no checks.

    Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
    The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
    The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.

    If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.
    So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?
    No.

    Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.
    Jesus (Jaysus) H Christ will you please take some time to understand who will or won't erect a hard border in Northern Ireland.
    Nobody will. End of story.
    The EU will if we no deal. They will have no choice. I think this game of chicken is very dangerous because in both deal and no deal the EU have to agree a solution for the border

    And I do not support ERG at all, in case I am accused, as I was yesterday believe or not, of being a hard brexiteer
    Lol! Don't take it to heart, Big G. We're all called some odd things on here from time to time. I was once referred to as a 'right-wing Cockney'. Moi!
  • eekeek Posts: 3,387
    Dadge said:

    Of course, there is a very simple solution to the backstop issue. Ask the people of Northern Ireland whether they are OK with it applying just to them. The reason this is not going to happen is because they will supply the wrong answer: Yes.

    This is a good point that journalists skirt over. The DUP is holding us all to ransom.
    And I suspect the end result of that ransom will be a border vote and a united Ireland. The DUP are sadly not bright enough to see that consequence...
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 29,116
    Dadge said:

    Dadge said:

    Chris said:

    FPT to RCS

    rcs1000 said:

    There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.

    Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?
    I mean there will be no checks.

    Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
    The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
    The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.

    If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.
    So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?
    No.

    Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.
    What choice will Ireland have? Without any immigration, customs and tariff agreements, border checkpoints will be needed where (some if not all) passports and goods are checked.
    And if they point blank refuse to do so, then who is going to force the matter and how?
    I assume that the EU would take Ireland to court since it would be in breach of its responsibilities. It would probably also be necessary to instigate checks of goods and people from Ireland to the rest of the EU.

    Taking Ireland to court will take longer than it takes the UK to come back to the table to ask for a deal. As for checks, they are going to be happening anyway given that most Irish goods are exported to the EU via the UK.

  • dixiedean said:

    kinabalu said:

    That's a big lead for May over Corbyn. Bet she's itching to call a general election. Because just imagine if you can the deep and intensely personal sense of redemption, vindication, potency, triumph and euphoria with which her entire being would be suffused if she does so and wins an overall majority of, say, 50 seats. Imagine her at Tory HQ the morning after being cheered to the rafters and given the bumps by hordes of delirious shiny-eyed activists almost as if she were a winning FA Cup final manager. Perhaps you can't imagine it, but I assure you that she can. She thinks of little else. Keeps it secret no doubt, probably not even told hubby, but she is obsessed with the idea. Snap election to break the impasse on the deal. This is why she isn't trying that hard to get it through. In fact she is not trying at all, she's only pretending to. She likes the impasse. She wants to be forced to call a general election. Well, sorry but the secret's out now. We all know what her little game is. She is BUSTED.

    You may be onto something there. I would similarly love to play up front for Everton and score a hat trick in a Mersey Derby.
    Fortunately, saner forces are preventing me having a go.
    But didn't you do that once, Mr Dean?

    Wait a minute, you're not the real Dixie Dean....? Pshah!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 2,012
    Dadge said:

    This is a good point that journalists skirt over. The DUP is holding us all to ransom.

    They are. Or their influence is perniciously disproportionate let's just say that.

    One of the (IMO many) strong arguments for a general election sooner rather than later is that there is a good chance of this situation being rectified.
  • eekeek Posts: 3,387
    dixiedean said:

    eek said:

    notme2 said:

    eek said:

    Scott_P said:
    And your typical Labour Northern Leave seat would vote Labour even if the candidate was a half-dead baboon provided said baboon was wearing a Red Rosette.
    The voters of Copeland and Middlesbrough say otherwise....
    Boro has always been a labour seat, and Stockton South is in many ways a North Yorkshire seat.

    Assuming you actually mean Redcar than 2010 was a very poorly timed election locally (with the closure of the steelworks) and it returned to Labour in 2015...
    I think he means Boro S and Cleveland East. Which is a relatively small bit of Boro, and a rather larger bit of rural area similar politically to N Yorkshire.
    And even the Boro bits are posher than the other parts...
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 1,462

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:



    I mean there will be no checks.

    Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
    The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
    The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.

    If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.

    So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?
    No.

    Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.
    You're saying Ireland _isn't_ pretending it wants a backstop? Ireland really does want a backstop?
    Yes. 100%.
    It wants a deadline by which it has to stop having its cake and eating it?

    Can't you ring up Mr Varadkar and explain all this to him, and then the whole problem will be solved?
    It doesn't want to be in a position where it is compelled to eat cake and have it too.
    Or looking at it another way, a position where it is compelled to choose between having a hard border with Northern Ireland and breaking its treaty obligations to the European Union?

    That would certainly make Ireland's position more comprehensible than your cake metaphor.
    Same thing. The whole cake metaphor has been invoked all along this process to mean that.

    But if a no deal scenario happens then Ireland will break its obligations before it erects a border. If the UK doesn't come to heel then the only way to get out of the mess will be a deal which means no backstop.

    I agree that the Irish are not going to put up any barriers when we go to No Deal. They would be mad to. But that is not going to help the UK.

    This is very naive. If what you say is true, May and co would not have wasted any time on the border issue. If we leave without a deal, there will be chaos at the border. Not overnight, but the EU (and to a lesser extent the UK) will act over the summer to plug the hole.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 29,116
    Dadge said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:



    I mean there will be no checks.

    Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
    The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
    The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.

    If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.

    So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?
    No.

    Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.
    You're saying Ireland _isn't_ pretending it wants a backstop? Ireland really does want a backstop?
    Yes. 100%.
    It wants a deadline by which it has to stop having its cake and eating it?

    Can't you ring up Mr Varadkar and explain all this to him, and then the whole problem will be solved?
    It doesn't want to be in a position where it is compelled to eat cake and have it too.
    Or looking at it breaking its treaty obligations to the European Union?

    That would certainly make Ireland's position more comprehensible than your cake metaphor.
    Same thing. The whole cake metaphor has been invoked all along this process to mean that.

    But if a no deal scenario happens then Ireland will break its obligations before it erects a border. If the UK doesn't come to heel then the only way to get out of the mess will be a deal which means no backstop.

    I agree that the Irish are not going to put up any barriers when we go to No Deal. They would be mad to. But that is not going to help the UK.

    This is very naive. If what you say is true, May and co would not have wasted any time on the border issue. If we leave without a deal, there will be chaos at the border. Not overnight, but the EU (and to a lesser extent the UK) will act over the summer to plug the hole.

    It won’t get to the summer. For Ireland no deal really is better than a bad deal.

  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 315
    Has no-one considered the possibility that, for understandable historical reasons, the Irish Government may not trust a gentleman's agreement with the UK not to erect a hard border?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 22,677
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    FPT to RCS

    rcs1000 said:

    There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.

    Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?
    I mean there will be no checks.

    Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
    The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
    The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.

    If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.
    So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?
    No.

    Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.
    You're saying Ireland _isn't_ pretending it wants a backstop? Ireland really does want a backstop?
    Yes. 100%.
    It wants a deadline by which it has to stop having its cake and eating it?

    Can't you ring up Mr Varadkar and explain all this to him, and then the whole problem will be solved?
    A backstop pushes the problem to the U.K. no backstop creates a risk for Ireland
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 2,012
    edited February 4

    With respect you do seem to be willing a GE but it is not in TM power to call one. The cabinet would not support it and nor would her mps, and without them you cannot get 434 mps to vote for dissolution

    I disagree with you there. I reckon as a last resort (if no 'tory brexit' can be approved by this parliament) she might well be able to get a GE passed.

    However, on balance, I see the deal passing (eventually) without one.
  • Anorak said:

    Help! To the accountants and business owners on here:

    Does anyone know how long it takes to get a certificate of tax residency for a limited company?

    Bloody Indian bureaucracy screwing up my cash flow...

    I assume you want a Certificate to satisfy the Indian Tax Authorities?

    I used to have this problem from time to time and it's slightly awkward because there is no official certificate as such and the Indians (and others) seem to assume there is. I used to find the problem was best solved by a letter from HMRC stating that your company is resident in the UK for Corporation Tax purposes. Best phone your tax inspector first to see if they are willing to provide such a letter. Explain the difficulty and they are likely(but not obliged) to help. I found it helped if I drafted the letter myself and sent a blank to them and they would just repeat the wording. That saves them hassle and as long as you word it sensibly they will just repeat it on headed notepaper. That usually works.

    Your tax advisors could organise this for you but will charge you like a wounded rhino, and probably cock it up. Best to do it yourself.
  • TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    FPT to RCS

    rcs1000 said:

    There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.

    Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?
    I mean there will be no checks.

    Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
    The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
    The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.

    If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.
    So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?
    No.

    Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.
    Jesus (Jaysus) H Christ will you please take some time to understand who will or won't erect a hard border in Northern Ireland.
    Nobody will. End of story.
    The EU will if we no deal. They will have no choice. I think this game of chicken is very dangerous because in both deal and no deal the EU have to agree a solution for the border

    And I do not support ERG at all, in case I am accused, as I was yesterday believe or not, of being a hard brexiteer
    Lol! Don't take it to heart, Big G. We're all called some odd things on here from time to time. I was once referred to as a 'right-wing Cockney'. Moi!
    I was surprised but I also understand the anger of some remainers who on the odd occasion go over the top and hit out
  • RobDRobD Posts: 36,414
    edited February 4
    DougSeal said:

    Has no-one considered the possibility that, for understandable historical reasons, the Irish Government may not trust a gentleman's agreement with the UK not to erect a hard border?

    Welcome to PB. I don’t see a strong desire on the UK’s side (or anyone’s) for a border. Sounds as though the EU are the only one who’d force the issue.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 22,677
    Dadge said:

    Dadge said:

    Chris said:

    FPT to RCS

    rcs1000 said:

    There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.

    Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?
    I mean there will be no checks.

    Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
    The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
    The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.

    If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.
    So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?
    No.

    Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.
    What choice will Ireland have? Without any immigration, customs and tariff agreements, border checkpoints will be needed where (some if not all) passports and goods are checked.
    And if they point blank refuse to do so, then who is going to force the matter and how?
    I assume that the EU would take Ireland to court since it would be in breach of its responsibilities. It would probably also be necessary to instigate checks of goods and people from Ireland to the rest of the EU.
    If it wasn’t for the history that would be the logical outcome
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 17,404

    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    FPT to RCS

    rcs1000 said:

    There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.

    Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?
    I mean there will be no checks.

    Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
    The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
    The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.

    If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.
    So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?
    No.

    Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.
    Jesus (Jaysus) H Christ will you please take some time to understand who will or won't erect a hard border in Northern Ireland.
    Nobody will. End of story.
    I mean Phil, I think your presence on here is interesting enough in that it gives us an insight into the mind of people such as yourself, of whom I think there are many.

    But when your posts are so devoid of understanding, and exhibit such transparent ignorance, it is difficult to take you seriously.

    As one final effort, although god knows why I persist, I will point you in the direction of the answer which is WTO MFN.

    All yours now - good luck!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 19,136


    But if a no deal scenario happens then Ireland will break its obligations before it erects a border. If the UK doesn't come to heel then the only way to get out of the mess will be a deal which means no backstop.

    I agree that the Irish are not going to put up any barriers when we go to No Deal. They would be mad to. But that is not going to help the UK.

    Yes it does help the UK as (so long as we don't fold) it gives us immense leverage. The only way to solve the problem - and it will be a problem for the EU - will be to get a deal. Only way to get a deal is to get both sides to agree. We wont agree if there is a backstop.

    The EU will need the Irish border issue dealing with us in that scenario more than us. The integrity of the UK will be intact but the integrity of the Single Market won't be. A standstill transition minus the backstop is a fudge that will kick the can down the road and remove the immediate headache for the EU while concentrating minds on both sides to find a real solution.
  • kinabalu said:

    With respect you do seem to be willing a GE but it is not in TM power to call one. The cabinet would not support it and nor would her mps, and without them you cannot get 434 mps to vote for dissolution

    I disagree with you there. I reckon as a last resort (if no 'tory brexit' can be approved by this parliament) she might well be able to get a GE passed.

    However, on balance, I see the deal passing (eventually) without one.
    She will not get it passed her party judging by the near hysteria from her mps on twitter. The only way is through another vonc but even that may not result in a GE
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,918
    eek said:
    Well that's bewildering. My understanding is that the argument is that the GFA requires a back stop, not that it contravenes it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 36,414
    dixiedean said:
    Clark’s promise cannot be met because no Brexit deal has been struck with the European Union,

    Cannot? There’s a deal on the table, isn’t there?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 24,125
    It's a healthy relative lead but it doesn't look particularly strong or stable.
  • Sky breaking news

    Lord Trimble to take government to court to get the backstop protocol removed from the deal
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 22,677
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    FPT to RCS

    rcs1000 said:

    There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.

    Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?
    I mean there will be no checks.

    Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
    The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
    The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.

    If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.
    So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?
    No.

    Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.
    Jesus (Jaysus) H Christ will you please take some time to understand who will or won't erect a hard border in Northern Ireland.
    Nobody will. End of story.
    I mean Phil, I think your presence on here is interesting enough in that it gives us an insight into the mind of people such as yourself, of whom I think there are many.

    But when your posts are so devoid of understanding, and exhibit such transparent ignorance, it is difficult to take you seriously.

    As one final effort, although god knows why I persist, I will point you in the direction of the answer which is WTO MFN.

    All yours now - good luck!
    Although as @SouthamObserver points out the Irish lobby in the US is so strong they wouldn’t want to sue us because that might require a hard border
  • Guys I think I've come across a workable Brexit compromise

  • RobDRobD Posts: 36,414
    DavidL said:

    eek said:
    Well that's bewildering. My understanding is that the argument is that the GFA requires a back stop, not that it contravenes it.
    What gives you that impression? There are only two tangential references to the EU in the entire document.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 29,116


    But if a no deal scenario happens then Ireland will break its obligations before it erects a border. If the UK doesn't come to heel then the only way to get out of the mess will be a deal which means no backstop.

    I agree that the Irish are not going to put up any barriers when we go to No Deal. They would be mad to. But that is not going to help the UK.

    Yes it does help the UK as (so long as we don't fold) it gives us immense leverage. The only way to solve the problem - and it will be a problem for the EU - will be to get a deal. Only way to get a deal is to get both sides to agree. We wont agree if there is a backstop.

    The EU will need the Irish border issue dealing with us in that scenario more than us. The integrity of the UK will be intact but the integrity of the Single Market won't be. A standstill transition minus the backstop is a fudge that will kick the can down the road and remove the immediate headache for the EU while concentrating minds on both sides to find a real solution.

    “If we don’t fold” is doing a hell of a lot of work in that scenario given what No Deal means for us.
  • RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:
    Well that's bewildering. My understanding is that the argument is that the GFA requires a back stop, not that it contravenes it.
    What gives you that impression? There are only two tangential references to the EU in the entire document.
    The important thing for the Irish government, and also the British government until it welched on its deal last week, is that the GFA requires no change in the constitutional status of NI without a border poll.

    Brexit is a pretty damn significant change.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 2,012

    She will not get it passed her party judging by the near hysteria from her mps on twitter. The only way is through another vonc but even that may not result in a GE

    So what do you think her 'last resort' move is if her deal is irredeemably blocked by parliament?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 24,918
    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:
    Well that's bewildering. My understanding is that the argument is that the GFA requires a back stop, not that it contravenes it.
    What gives you that impression? There are only two tangential references to the EU in the entire document.
    I'm not saying I agree with the argument but that is what is said. It is claimed that it was implied that we would do nothing to impede the free movement of goods and people in the island of Ireland and that means we need to agree something that has that effect, even if we leave the EU which essentially provided such a scenario.

    For the backstop to be a breach of the GFA you would need to argue that it breaches the terms on which NI was going to remain in the UK. Not sure I am seeing that, tbh.

    But its been weeks since we had a completely daft and irrelevant court case about some aspect of Brexit, so why not?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 36,414
    edited February 4

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:
    Well that's bewildering. My understanding is that the argument is that the GFA requires a back stop, not that it contravenes it.
    What gives you that impression? There are only two tangential references to the EU in the entire document.
    The important thing for the Irish government, and also the British government until it welched on its deal last week, is that the GFA requires no change in the constitutional status of NI without a border poll.

    Brexit is a pretty damn significant change.
    No change in its relationship with the U.K. though, unless a border poll is required for reach new EU treaty, for example. I don’t remember there being calls for one for Lisbon.
  • kinabalu said:

    She will not get it passed her party judging by the near hysteria from her mps on twitter. The only way is through another vonc but even that may not result in a GE

    So what do you think her 'last resort' move is if her deal is irredeemably blocked by parliament?
    One puppy, one revolver, one bullet.
  • eekeek Posts: 3,387

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:
    Well that's bewildering. My understanding is that the argument is that the GFA requires a back stop, not that it contravenes it.
    What gives you that impression? There are only two tangential references to the EU in the entire document.
    The important thing for the Irish government, and also the British government until it welched on its deal last week, is that the GFA requires no change in the constitutional status of NI without a border poll.

    Brexit is a pretty damn significant change.
    I wonder if there is a plan to use the GFA as the reason to Revoke A50....
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 24,125

    kinabalu said:

    She will not get it passed her party judging by the near hysteria from her mps on twitter. The only way is through another vonc but even that may not result in a GE

    So what do you think her 'last resort' move is if her deal is irredeemably blocked by parliament?
    One puppy, one revolver, one bullet.
    Just a pound shop Cruella De Ville.
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:
    Well that's bewildering. My understanding is that the argument is that the GFA requires a back stop, not that it contravenes it.
    What gives you that impression? There are only two tangential references to the EU in the entire document.
    The important thing for the Irish government, and also the British government until it welched on its deal last week, is that the GFA requires no change in the constitutional status of NI without a border poll.

    Brexit is a pretty damn significant change.
    No change in it’s relationship with the U.K. though, unless a border poll is required for reach new EU treaty, for example. I don’t remember there being calls for one for Lisbon.
    But a pretty significant change in its relationship with the Republic, hence the concern.

    In any case, it's relevant because the British government was committed to assuring there could be no return to a hard border. And until last week, when May suddenly reneged on her solemn promise and voted against the backstop she negotiated, maybe Ireland even believed the UK government meant it.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 942

    Anorak said:

    Help! To the accountants and business owners on here:

    Does anyone know how long it takes to get a certificate of tax residency for a limited company?

    Bloody Indian bureaucracy screwing up my cash flow...

    I assume you want a Certificate to satisfy the Indian Tax Authorities?

    I used to have this problem from time to time and it's slightly awkward because there is no official certificate as such and the Indians (and others) seem to assume there is. I used to find the problem was best solved by a letter from HMRC stating that your company is resident in the UK for Corporation Tax purposes. Best phone your tax inspector first to see if they are willing to provide such a letter. Explain the difficulty and they are likely(but not obliged) to help. I found it helped if I drafted the letter myself and sent a blank to them and they would just repeat the wording. That saves them hassle and as long as you word it sensibly they will just repeat it on headed notepaper. That usually works.

    Your tax advisors could organise this for you but will charge you like a wounded rhino, and probably cock it up. Best to do it yourself.
    This is the HMRC web page for the relevant form.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/certificate-of-residence-application-letter-applications-only-res1
  • RobDRobD Posts: 36,414
    DavidL said:

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:
    Well that's bewildering. My understanding is that the argument is that the GFA requires a back stop, not that it contravenes it.
    What gives you that impression? There are only two tangential references to the EU in the entire document.
    I'm not saying I agree with the argument but that is what is said. It is claimed that it was implied that we would do nothing to impede the free movement of goods and people in the island of Ireland and that means we need to agree something that has that effect, even if we leave the EU which essentially provided such a scenario.

    For the backstop to be a breach of the GFA you would need to argue that it breaches the terms on which NI was going to remain in the UK. Not sure I am seeing that, tbh.

    But its been weeks since we had a completely daft and irrelevant court case about some aspect of Brexit, so why not?
    I don’t think it mentions anything about customs checks either. You are right that the concession won by May for the backstop to apply to the entire UK renders Trimble’s case a bit silly.
  • kinabalu said:

    She will not get it passed her party judging by the near hysteria from her mps on twitter. The only way is through another vonc but even that may not result in a GE

    So what do you think her 'last resort' move is if her deal is irredeemably blocked by parliament?
    Seek an extension to A50
  • kinabalu said:

    She will not get it passed her party judging by the near hysteria from her mps on twitter. The only way is through another vonc but even that may not result in a GE

    So what do you think her 'last resort' move is if her deal is irredeemably blocked by parliament?
    Seek an extension to A50
    This is the thing. For May, there is no such thing as a last resort. There's always a can to be kicked, for as long as we let her.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 2,012

    Yes it does help the UK as (so long as we don't fold) it gives us immense leverage. The only way to solve the problem - and it will be a problem for the EU - will be to get a deal. Only way to get a deal is to get both sides to agree. We wont agree if there is a backstop.

    The EU will need the Irish border issue dealing with us in that scenario more than us. The integrity of the UK will be intact but the integrity of the Single Market won't be. A standstill transition minus the backstop is a fudge that will kick the can down the road and remove the immediate headache for the EU while concentrating minds on both sides to find a real solution.

    The EU will presumably fold then - bye bye backstop.

    Let's see if they do.
  • Anorak said:

    Help! To the accountants and business owners on here:

    Does anyone know how long it takes to get a certificate of tax residency for a limited company?

    Bloody Indian bureaucracy screwing up my cash flow...

    I assume you want a Certificate to satisfy the Indian Tax Authorities?

    I used to have this problem from time to time and it's slightly awkward because there is no official certificate as such and the Indians (and others) seem to assume there is. I used to find the problem was best solved by a letter from HMRC stating that your company is resident in the UK for Corporation Tax purposes. Best phone your tax inspector first to see if they are willing to provide such a letter. Explain the difficulty and they are likely(but not obliged) to help. I found it helped if I drafted the letter myself and sent a blank to them and they would just repeat the wording. That saves them hassle and as long as you word it sensibly they will just repeat it on headed notepaper. That usually works.

    Your tax advisors could organise this for you but will charge you like a wounded rhino, and probably cock it up. Best to do it yourself.
    This is the HMRC web page for the relevant form.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/certificate-of-residence-application-letter-applications-only-res1
    Thanks Verulamius. That didn't exist in my day and is a welcome facility for many, I am sure.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 14,488
    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:
    Well that's bewildering. My understanding is that the argument is that the GFA requires a back stop, not that it contravenes it.
    What gives you that impression? There are only two tangential references to the EU in the entire document.
    I'm not saying I agree with the argument but that is what is said. It is claimed that it was implied that we would do nothing to impede the free movement of goods and people in the island of Ireland and that means we need to agree something that has that effect, even if we leave the EU which essentially provided such a scenario.

    For the backstop to be a breach of the GFA you would need to argue that it breaches the terms on which NI was going to remain in the UK. Not sure I am seeing that, tbh.

    But its been weeks since we had a completely daft and irrelevant court case about some aspect of Brexit, so why not?
    I don’t think it mentions anything about customs checks either. You are right that the concession won by May for the backstop to apply to the entire UK renders Trimble’s case a bit silly.
    We are talking about a Unionist politician.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 2,012

    Seek an extension to A50

    To do what though?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 44,557
    eek said:

    I wonder if there is a plan to use the GFA as the reason to Revoke A50....

    That would be hilarious
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 17,404
    Charles said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    FPT to RCS

    rcs1000 said:

    There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.

    Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?
    I mean there will be no checks.

    Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
    The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
    The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.

    If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.
    So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?
    No.

    Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.
    Jesus (Jaysus) H Christ will you please take some time to understand who will or won't erect a hard border in Northern Ireland.
    Nobody will. End of story.
    I mean Phil, I think your presence on here is interesting enough in that it gives us an insight into the mind of people such as yourself, of whom I think there are many.

    But when your posts are so devoid of understanding, and exhibit such transparent ignorance, it is difficult to take you seriously.

    As one final effort, although god knows why I persist, I will point you in the direction of the answer which is WTO MFN.

    All yours now - good luck!
    Although as @SouthamObserver points out the Irish lobby in the US is so strong they wouldn’t want to sue us because that might require a hard border
    I have noted various shots across the bows from the US. The Trimble story is of course priceless. If it weren't so tragic.
  • kinabalu said:

    Seek an extension to A50

    To do what though?
    If at first you don't concede,
    Extend, extend again.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 36,414

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:
    Well that's bewildering. My understanding is that the argument is that the GFA requires a back stop, not that it contravenes it.
    What gives you that impression? There are only two tangential references to the EU in the entire document.
    The important thing for the Irish government, and also the British government until it welched on its deal last week, is that the GFA requires no change in the constitutional status of NI without a border poll.

    Brexit is a pretty damn significant change.
    No change in it’s relationship with the U.K. though, unless a border poll is required for reach new EU treaty, for example. I don’t remember there being calls for one for Lisbon.
    But a pretty significant change in its relationship with the Republic, hence the concern.

    In any case, it's relevant because the British government was committed to assuring there could be no return to a hard border. And until last week, when May suddenly reneged on her solemn promise and voted against the backstop she negotiated, maybe Ireland even believed the UK government meant it.

    Does it explicitly prevent changes in arrangements between the UK and Ireland? I only remember clauses about a borde rpoll being necessary if it was thought there was a majority for joining Ireland.

    As for May reneging the deal. Parliamentary theatre, probably to demonstrate once and for all that this is the only deal on the table.
  • Scott_P said:

    eek said:

    I wonder if there is a plan to use the GFA as the reason to Revoke A50....

    That would be hilarious
    If we were being honest and rational, the government would have realised by last summer that it's impossible for the UK to honour May's red lines and the GFA, and made moves to start the reunification of Ireland.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 2,341
    kinabalu said:

    Seek an extension to A50

    To do what though?
    In order to seek a further extension 3 months later.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 4,005

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:
    Well that's bewildering. My understanding is that the argument is that the GFA requires a back stop, not that it contravenes it.
    What gives you that impression? There are only two tangential references to the EU in the entire document.
    I'm not saying I agree with the argument but that is what is said. It is claimed that it was implied that we would do nothing to impede the free movement of goods and people in the island of Ireland and that means we need to agree something that has that effect, even if we leave the EU which essentially provided such a scenario.

    For the backstop to be a breach of the GFA you would need to argue that it breaches the terms on which NI was going to remain in the UK. Not sure I am seeing that, tbh.

    But its been weeks since we had a completely daft and irrelevant court case about some aspect of Brexit, so why not?
    I don’t think it mentions anything about customs checks either. You are right that the concession won by May for the backstop to apply to the entire UK renders Trimble’s case a bit silly.
    We are talking about a Unionist politician.
    Wasn't Trimble in the OUP. Aren't they Remainers? (I believe he's a Tory peer now).
  • RobD said:


    Does it explicitly prevent changes in arrangements between the UK and Ireland? I only remember clauses about a borde rpoll being necessary if it was thought there was a majority for joining Ireland.

    Changes to the GFA need to be approved by a border poll too.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 23,255
    edited February 4
    The discussions to date have all been predictable over the deal, no deal, referendum, extension or revoke but with Lord Trimble's move today over a judicial review in respect of the backstop and the GFA we are entering a whole new world of uncertainty and maybe further referrals to the courts

    And if the Court does rule it illegal under the GFA it must then put the EU into the legal mix as it is they who are insisting on it

    This is never going to end
  • RobDRobD Posts: 36,414

    RobD said:


    Does it explicitly prevent changes in arrangements between the UK and Ireland? I only remember clauses about a borde rpoll being necessary if it was thought there was a majority for joining Ireland.

    Changes to the GFA need to be approved by a border poll too.
    But what needs to be changed?
  • dixiedean said:



    Wasn't Trimble in the OUP. Aren't they Remainers? (I believe he's a Tory peer now).

    Yes, he's a remainer. He hopes that having the backstop ruled illegal will make Brexit legally impossible.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 36,414

    The discussions to date have all been predictable over the deal, no deal, referendum, extension or revoke but with Lord Trimbles move today over avjudicial review in respect of the backstop and the GFA we are entering a whole new world of uncertainty and maybe further referrals to the courts

    And if the Court does rule it illegal under the GFA it must then put the EU into the legal mix as it is they who are insisting on it

    This is never going to end

    Always darkest before the dawn, etc!
  • ChrisChris Posts: 2,341
    Trimble last April:
    However, he maintained that the Good Friday Agreement was robust enough to weather the challenges of Brexit and that a solution would be easy.
    “The Taoiseach, the Prime Minister, and somebody from Brussels who is in a position to take decisions, if those three people sat down around a table I suspect it wouldn’t take them more than half an hour to sort things out”.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/trimble-says-irish-brexit-challenges-could-be-solved-in-half-an-hour-1.3456791
This discussion has been closed.