Hello, first post. A refugee from Order-Order. The site is a joke, too many weirdos and nasty people abound.
Welcome. I hope we've less weirdos and nasties.
Thank you OKC. Read this blog for ages and decided, to be honest, far more interesting and sociable. The language on OrderOrder is disgraceful and I consider myself a man of the world.
Welcome to PB - It is virtually my first place for news these days. And such varied opinions
Cheers Big G. Where about in North Wales, I know it well, at least every inch of the A55
Llandudno, the Queen of Welsh resorts
I've been there by train, and I've done the Great Orme Tramway!
That ain't a proper railway! I did the Canal Tunnels (both ways) a couple of weeks ago, btw. Currently sat in First Class on the train back to Leeds after a couple of days in The Smoke thanks to a cheap Advance.
Edit: Corrected the spelling of "Cheap" - I blame the free Gin in 1st!
Given her performance so far, she will simply ask for an extension, say she is going to Brussels to negotiate a new WA, and keep that can heading down the road for another three months.
If she could get away with it she probably would! But all that does is delay the reckoning.
The essential truth (for me) is that if this parliament cannot (sensibly) Brexit then we need another parliament - i.e. a general election will become inevitable.
To be fair, they still think the gramophone is witchcraft down in those parts.
I've been to Exeter. It's very nice. But it's on a 45 degree slope...
But the station is pretty much level.
Well, yes. Trains find gradients difficult because the actual surface area in contact with the rail is... Pause. Remember I am actually talking to Sunil, Hindu God of Trains. Okay, I think you know all this already...
Mr. 1992, ha. Can't be as fun as the time I was the only man in an hour long seminar that was on menstruation.
I hope on leaving you were heard to say "well that was a bloody waste of time...."
A friend of my son's took a course on Women's Studies at Uni, largely, IIRC, for a dare. He infuriated the lecturer, largely because he was there, but also because he did what you're supposed to do at Uni, and argued his corner. Somewhat unsurprisingly she failed him which meant he got a Desmond.
The closest parallel is probably when we left the ERM in 1992 - it was with hindsight very good economically in the medium term, but disastrous politically for the government of the day to have lost control of events.
What parallel do you see in terms of the practical impact of No Deal versus leaving the ERM?
Given that net trade in goods with the EU is around 8% of GDP, if I were to take a guess I’d say something like 0.5% off in Q2 (-25% by value of trade in goods with the EU), maybe down to a total of 1% by the end of the year before recovering early in 2020. There will be a technical recession, but the whole of Europe is about to get one.
Supply chains will adjust much faster than predicted, and government will be united in measures to reduce unnecessary friction. Companies already have a lot of plans in place, what’s causing the immediate problems is the uncertainty of which plan to implement.
Probably a number of posters on here will disagree with the following but, it is actually what I think is happening. I have done my best to follow or at least try to follow the actions of T.May over the last few months, She has offered to the HoC a WA which she and her advisers knew, had no chance whatsoever of gaining approval, she knew 100% in December and 100% in January. Since then, from all reports I can glean she has moved towards modifying it by zero amount but with lots of flourishes added. So, without any massive changes, she is not going to shift the majority of that revolt of 230 MP’s as in the first vote. She also knows that the EU, according to Junkers et al, are not prepared to move on the agreed WA/Backstop. Unless there are some considerable changes to May’s offer, and I don’t mean fiddling with the edges, the next effort should give a similar resounding defeat for her. Why is she doing this? I don’t believe an intelligent woman who is surrounded by some, shall we say, inadvised MP’s, but also some highly respected MP’s and legal advisers, would travel in this direction without an agenda which is the ultimate target for her. I don’t now believe her target is to remain in the EU or even be conjoined to most if any of the major aspects of the EU. She must be aware of the feelings in the country and the inevitable resultant backlash in the event of not leaving or, delaying the EU exit. She and the Conservative party are going to loose so much if she does that. She has to reach her target by upsetting as few people, primarily us, to the extent that Corbyn does not have the opportunity of forming a government. She has to allow MP’s, Remainers, to keep hope of being able to foil us leaving in March, it keeps up her appearance of being a very stubborn woman, mainly to Brexiters, which keeps almost everyone on opposing sides at loggerheads and, most importantly, running down the clock. It may be she is playing a blinder and steering us towards a no deal Brexit on the 29th March this year. I hope I am right for many people’s sake and hope some contributors on here possibly agree with me because if I am right, Independence Day is the 29th March 2019.
It is possible but I am not convinced she will no deal.
Next week, yet again, will provide signposts to the way forward and just how much wriggle room TM actually has. I do not know the timeline for Lord Trimble's judicial review but that may complicate the process even more, with an extension becoming the best option for both sides
We tend to be gloomy about all this, but on a cheerful note I turned 69 today and I've really NEVER found a more interesting time to follow politics. Interesting in the Chinese curse sense, maybe. But fascinating too, isn't it?
Have a great birthday Nick and many to follow
Depending on the time scale we may both see Brexit off the agenda but as I am 6 years ahead, my time scale is a bit more iffy !!!!!!!!!
...An example that I particularly remember was Toby Young revealing how he liked to wank over pictures of starving African children....
Dear actual God in Heaven above, really? I know the Spectator is full of cokeheads and adulterous drunks, but even by their corrupt moral code that's bad, surely?
To be fair, they still think the gramophone is witchcraft down in those parts.
I've been to Exeter. It's very nice. But it's on a 45 degree slope...
But the station is pretty much level.
Well, yes. Trains find gradients difficult because the actual surface area in contact with the rail is... Pause. Remember I am actually talking to Sunil, Hindu God of Trains. Okay, I think you know all this already...
King Cole, I didn't say anything, but one of the feminist lecturers did state (wrongly) that 'history' was indicative of male privilege etc, being 'his story'.
It derives, of course, from the Latin historia. Which is a feminine noun.
Hello, first post. A refugee from Order-Order. The site is a joke, too many weirdos and nasty people abound.
Welcome. I hope we've less weirdos and nasties.
Thank you OKC. Read this blog for ages and decided, to be honest, far more interesting and sociable. The language on OrderOrder is disgraceful and I consider myself a man of the world.
Welcome to PB - It is virtually my first place for news these days. And such varied opinions
Cheers Big G. Where about in North Wales, I know it well, at least every inch of the A55
Llandudno, the Queen of Welsh resorts
I've been there by train, and I've done the Great Orme Tramway!
The closest parallel is probably when we left the ERM in 1992 - it was with hindsight very good economically in the medium term, but disastrous politically for the government of the day to have lost control of events.
What parallel do you see in terms of the practical impact of No Deal versus leaving the ERM?
Given that net trade in goods with the EU is around 8% of GDP, if I were to take a guess I’d say something like 0.5% off in Q2 (-25% by value of trade in goods with the EU), maybe down to a total of 1% by the end of the year before recovering early in 2020. There will be a technical recession, but the whole of Europe is about to get one.
Supply chains will adjust much faster than predicted, and government will be united in measures to reduce unnecessary friction. Companies already have a lot of plans in place, what’s causing the immediate problems is the uncertainty of which plan to implement.
Leaving the ERM didn't cause a recession. Perhaps you could say it's more like joining the ERM, and you expect it to cause economic pain that will be worth it in the end to wean us off European trade - "If it's not hurting, it's not working."
Given her performance so far, she will simply ask for an extension, say she is going to Brussels to negotiate a new WA, and keep that can heading down the road for another three months.
If she could get away with it she probably would! But all that does is delay the reckoning.
The essential truth (for me) is that if this parliament cannot (sensibly) Brexit then we need another parliament - i.e. a general election will become inevitable.
Fair play for your consistent view a GE will sort it
Over the next month, a lot of lambs will be born in the UK, 70% normally are exported to the EU. 35% tarrif if no deal, I believe.
I am not advocating No Deal but the lamb trade is a poor example to use. In year to November 2018 we exported 73,860 tonnes of lamb but we imported 70,416 tonnes.
That's a naive view. First there is the seasonality difference (we export when meat is ready in the UK and import more at other times of year), and secondly there are big differences in the cuts of meat/offal imported and exported.
Probably a number of posters on here will disagree with the following but, it is actually what I think is happening. I hope I am right for many people’s sake and hope some contributors on here possibly agree with me because if I am right, Independence Day is the 29th March 2019.
I would prefer to Remain and so do not greet your post with unalloyed pleasure. But I took the precaution of leavening my disappointment by placing a £500 bet at 9/2 that we will in fact leave on March 29. Unfortunately the very next day a multitude of Conservative high-ups started speeching about how an extension would be necessary, desirable, and not a betrayal oh dear me no. So it looks like I might lose my bet and you may have to delay your celebration a bit.
At that point if she really cared about the UK she’d tell the ERG and DUP nutjobs to either accept that or she’ll revoke Article 50 and resign .
It’s astonishing that the country is being held hostage by a at Max a 100 MPs out of 650.
Ip
I hope that next week the HOC gets their act together and takes no deal off the table
That would focus minds
I don't think she has to take ND off the table. She would never go there, so it is effectively off the table already.
I agree that the point will come very soon when she can frankly and bluntly say as you propose - 'My Deal, or Revoke. You choose.'
I am afraid those who think No Deal is off the table are sorely mistaken. No Deal is still what happens if Parliament cannot agree and pass a way forward that is acceptable to the EU. Until that happens No Deal remains the most likely outcome.
You think she would do it, Richard? I know the mechanics take us into it if nobody does anything, but she has the power to stop it with a Revoke letter.
Parliament has the power to stop it by agreeing her Deal, subject possibly to some assistance from the EU in the form of relaxing the deadline.
Personally I dont think she would allow No Deal. She might leave it to the last minute, but at the end of the day, if nobody else blinks, I think she will.
You don't agree?
I think she sees immigration control as a big plus, so she wouldn't see no deal as an unmitigated disaster. Plus she follows through on delivering Brexit, as promised.
If she averts no deal at the last moment it's all negative for her (politically speaking). She gains nothing, enough economic damage will be done by that point to be looking for a scapegoat, and people are psychologically incapable of giving credit for a disaster averted.
Sure, she'd much prefer a deal, but she will take us over the cliff if the deal doesn't pass, or the responsibility for the decision isn't taken out of her hands.
To be fair, they still think the gramophone is witchcraft down in those parts.
I've been to Exeter. It's very nice. But it's on a 45 degree slope...
But the station is pretty much level.
Well, yes. Trains find gradients difficult because the actual surface area in contact with the rail is... Pause. Remember I am actually talking to Sunil, Hindu God of Trains. Okay, I think you know all this already...
Atheist God of trains, surely!
I wasn't referring to your lamentable lack of faith. I was referring to your place in the pantheon. Christ isn't a Christian and Gods do not worship themselves. Your atheism does not affect the religion of your followers world wide, who make numerous sacrifices to you involving votive offerings of used tickets, empty sandwich cases, and copies of the Evening Standard...
I honestly think if May Day wheeled out the podium tonight and said, “well the DUP and ERG are a bunch of utter bellends who would happily throw Britain under a bus to preserve their gammonite wet dreams” she would get her deal through.
We tend to be gloomy about all this, but on a cheerful note I turned 69 today and I've really NEVER found a more interesting time to follow politics. Interesting in the Chinese curse sense, maybe. But fascinating too, isn't it?
Have a great birthday Nick and many to follow
Depending on the time scale we may both see Brexit off the agenda but as I am 6 years ahead, my time scale is a bit more iffy !!!!!!!!!
I don't think she has to take ND off the table. She would never go there, so it is effectively off the table already.
I agree that the point will come very soon when she can frankly and bluntly say as you propose - 'My Deal, or Revoke. You choose.'
I agree that she will not allow No Deal. I have wobbled a bit on this but I am pretty sure now.
However, I think her ultimate backstop if this parliament just refuses to play ball is not Revoke but get a new parliament - i.e. General Election.
Given her performance so far, she will simply ask for an extension, say she is going to Brussels to negotiate a new WA, and keep that can heading down the road for another three months.
She is the political form of the Littlest Hobo. “Until tomorrow... Down the road, that’s where I want to be.”
What are Mrs May's key characteristics? - Stubborn - Anti-free movement - Favours blackmail as a strategy - Kick the can but can pivot (GE 2017) - Very committed and clued up on her deal.
My conclusion is that she will continue to try to get her deal (including backstop) over the line by "No Deal" blackmail, and when that fails, will go for an extension for a GE on her deal. She won't give up on it.
Because she survived her VONC, she is fireproof within her own party until the end of the year.
Her cabinet supports her deal so will probably support a GE on her deal (rather than a second referendum on her deal). It will get through parliament because Labour will support it.
The Tories will have a clear manifesto based on her deal. Vote for this and get Brexit or stay at home and get Corbyn (the blackmail bit). Labour, on the other hand, will have a real problem with their manifesto and will probably end up with a CU Brexit losing a lot of Remainer Labourites to the LibDems and splitting the centre left vote. Tories get an overall majority and pass her deal with two fingers to the DUP. Sorted.
We tend to be gloomy about all this, but on a cheerful note I turned 69 today and I've really NEVER found a more interesting time to follow politics. Interesting in the Chinese curse sense, maybe. But fascinating too, isn't it?
Have a great birthday Nick and many to follow
Depending on the time scale we may both see Brexit off the agenda but as I am 6 years ahead, my time scale is a bit more iffy !!!!!!!!!
To be fair, they still think the gramophone is witchcraft down in those parts.
I've been to Exeter. It's very nice. But it's on a 45 degree slope...
But the station is pretty much level.
Well, yes. Trains find gradients difficult because the actual surface area in contact with the rail is... Pause. Remember I am actually talking to Sunil, Hindu God of Trains. Okay, I think you know all this already...
Atheist God of trains, surely!
Sunil
Have you done the North Yorkshire Moors railway as a far as Whitby, and if so, is it to be recommended?
What are Mrs May's key characteristics? - Stubborn - Anti-free movement - Favours blackmail as a strategy - Kick the can but can pivot (GE 2017) - Very committed and clued up on her deal.
My conclusion is that she will continue to try to get her deal (including backstop) over the line by "No Deal" blackmail, and when that fails, will go for an extension for a GE on her deal. She won't give up on it.
Because she survived her VONC, she is fireproof within her own party until the end of the year.
Her cabinet supports her deal so will probably support a GE on her deal (rather than a second referendum on her deal). It will get through parliament because Labour will support it.
The Tories will have a clear manifesto based on her deal. Vote for this and get Brexit or stay at home and get Corbyn (the blackmail bit). Labour, on the other hand, will have a real problem with their manifesto and will probably end up with a CU Brexit losing a lot of Remainer Labourites to the LibDems and splitting the centre left vote. Tories get an overall majority and pass her deal with two fingers to the DUP. Sorted.
Hello, first post. A refugee from Order-Order. The site is a joke, too many weirdos and nasty people abound.
Welcome. I hope we've less weirdos and nasties.
Thank you OKC. Read this blog for ages and decided, to be honest, far more interesting and sociable. The language on OrderOrder is disgraceful and I consider myself a man of the world.
Welcome to PB - It is virtually my first place for news these days. And such varied opinions
Cheers Big G. Where about in North Wales, I know it well, at least every inch of the A55
Llandudno, the Queen of Welsh resorts
I've been there by train, and I've done the Great Orme Tramway!
I've walked up Great Orme (the iron ore mines are worth a visit) and taken the tram down,
Fair play for your consistent view a GE will sort it
Sense the PB code for stop banging on about that! ☺
But, yes, if all else fails, a General Election. It's the British way.
No - I do not do code - you are consistent in your view and who knows, in the end it may happen but in my opinion unlikely, not least because neither main party has a brexit platform they could agree with their party to put in their manifestos
What are Mrs May's key characteristics? - Stubborn - Anti-free movement - Favours blackmail as a strategy - Kick the can but can pivot (GE 2017) - Very committed and clued up on her deal.
My conclusion is that she will continue to try to get her deal (including backstop) over the line by "No Deal" blackmail, and when that fails, will go for an extension for a GE on her deal. She won't give up on it.
Because she survived her VONC, she is fireproof within her own party until the end of the year.
Her cabinet supports her deal so will probably support a GE on her deal (rather than a second referendum on her deal). It will get through parliament because Labour will support it.
The Tories will have a clear manifesto based on her deal. Vote for this and get Brexit or stay at home and get Corbyn (the blackmail bit). Labour, on the other hand, will have a real problem with their manifesto and will probably end up with a CU Brexit losing a lot of Remainer Labourites to the LibDems and splitting the centre left vote. Tories get an overall majority and pass her deal with two fingers to the DUP. Sorted.
"Tories get an overall majority and pass her deal ..." That's the problematic bit though, isn't it? Getting the ERG to vote for anything but Eurogeddon.
Grayling is quite the most incompetent minister in a long time.
He should have gone out of the cabinet months ago
The railways are one part of the economy that should be nationalised, as you are running an inherently loss-making service as a cost of keeping the country connected. The entire concept of franchising is bonkers - this isn’t a banana republic, so the railways cannot be allowed to fail. That all said, Chris Failing is still shite, even given the crap hand he has been dealt.
What are Mrs May's key characteristics? - Stubborn - Anti-free movement - Favours blackmail as a strategy - Kick the can but can pivot (GE 2017) - Very committed and clued up on her deal.
My conclusion is that she will continue to try to get her deal (including backstop) over the line by "No Deal" blackmail, and when that fails, will go for an extension for a GE on her deal. She won't give up on it.
Because she survived her VONC, she is fireproof within her own party until the end of the year.
Her cabinet supports her deal so will probably support a GE on her deal (rather than a second referendum on her deal). It will get through parliament because Labour will support it.
The Tories will have a clear manifesto based on her deal. Vote for this and get Brexit or stay at home and get Corbyn (the blackmail bit). Labour, on the other hand, will have a real problem with their manifesto and will probably end up with a CU Brexit losing a lot of Remainer Labourites to the LibDems and splitting the centre left vote. Tories get an overall majority and pass her deal with two fingers to the DUP. Sorted.
Dear actual God in Heaven above, really? I know the Spectator is full of cokeheads and adulterous drunks, but even by their corrupt moral code that's bad, surely?
I'm afraid so, and it was too much for me. I'd put up with eugenics, Taki on the beauty of nazi uniforms, Rod Liddle on how menstruating women made him puke, plenty more of that ilk, but that from Toby, no sorry - I cancelled my subscription.
To be recommended if you didn't see it, last nights programme on BBC 2 about the Greek crisis and the Euro. Unmissable, inc Mrs Merkel crying!
With Obama consoling her with an arm around her.
It's a fantastic series. The person who has impressed me the most, to my surprise, is Sarkozy. He is crystal clear, sensitive when necessary (rescuing Merkel), but firm when necessary (no, non, nein). A great negotiator. I wish he were on our side.
What are Mrs May's key characteristics? - Stubborn - Anti-free movement - Favours blackmail as a strategy - Kick the can but can pivot (GE 2017) - Very committed and clued up on her deal.
My conclusion is that she will continue to try to get her deal (including backstop) over the line by "No Deal" blackmail, and when that fails, will go for an extension for a GE on her deal. She won't give up on it.
Because she survived her VONC, she is fireproof within her own party until the end of the year.
Her cabinet supports her deal so will probably support a GE on her deal (rather than a second referendum on her deal). It will get through parliament because Labour will support it.
The Tories will have a clear manifesto based on her deal. Vote for this and get Brexit or stay at home and get Corbyn (the blackmail bit). Labour, on the other hand, will have a real problem with their manifesto and will probably end up with a CU Brexit losing a lot of Remainer Labourites to the LibDems and splitting the centre left vote. Tories get an overall majority and pass her deal with two fingers to the DUP. Sorted.
With you up to "The Tories will have a clear manifesto" bit. They may do, but a great many incumbents voted against it and many have publicly trashed it. Will they be de-selected? Also. What else will be in that manifesto? I detect a total absence of any other policies. How do they appeal to those who are more interested in health, education or anything else?
Hello, first post. A refugee from Order-Order. The site is a joke, too many weirdos and nasty people abound.
Welcome. I hope we've less weirdos and nasties.
Thank you OKC. Read this blog for ages and decided, to be honest, far more interesting and sociable. The language on OrderOrder is disgraceful and I consider myself a man of the world.
Welcome to PB - It is virtually my first place for news these days. And such varied opinions
Cheers Big G. Where about in North Wales, I know it well, at least every inch of the A55
Llandudno, the Queen of Welsh resorts
I've been there by train, and I've done the Great Orme Tramway!
I've walked up Great Orme (the iron ore mines are worth a visit) and taken the tram down,
You could go up in the cable cars and return on the tram or vice versa
What are Mrs May's key characteristics? - Stubborn - Anti-free movement - Favours blackmail as a strategy - Kick the can but can pivot (GE 2017) - Very committed and clued up on her deal.
My conclusion is that she will continue to try to get her deal (including backstop) over the line by "No Deal" blackmail, and when that fails, will go for an extension for a GE on her deal. She won't give up on it.
Because she survived her VONC, she is fireproof within her own party until the end of the year.
Her cabinet supports her deal so will probably support a GE on her deal (rather than a second referendum on her deal). It will get through parliament because Labour will support it.
The Tories will have a clear manifesto based on her deal. Vote for this and get Brexit or stay at home and get Corbyn (the blackmail bit). Labour, on the other hand, will have a real problem with their manifesto and will probably end up with a CU Brexit losing a lot of Remainer Labourites to the LibDems and splitting the centre left vote. Tories get an overall majority and pass her deal with two fingers to the DUP. Sorted.
"Tories get an overall majority and pass her deal ..." That's the problematic bit though, isn't it? Getting the ERG to vote for anything but Eurogeddon.
A big overall majority. So two fingers to the ERG as well. Also some of them will have stood as independents and lost their seats.
What are Mrs May's key characteristics? - Stubborn - Anti-free movement - Favours blackmail as a strategy - Kick the can but can pivot (GE 2017) - Very committed and clued up on her deal.
My conclusion is that she will continue to try to get her deal (including backstop) over the line by "No Deal" blackmail, and when that fails, will go for an extension for a GE on her deal. She won't give up on it.
Because she survived her VONC, she is fireproof within her own party until the end of the year.
Her cabinet supports her deal so will probably support a GE on her deal (rather than a second referendum on her deal). It will get through parliament because Labour will support it.
The Tories will have a clear manifesto based on her deal. Vote for this and get Brexit or stay at home and get Corbyn (the blackmail bit). Labour, on the other hand, will have a real problem with their manifesto and will probably end up with a CU Brexit losing a lot of Remainer Labourites to the LibDems and splitting the centre left vote. Tories get an overall majority and pass her deal with two fingers to the DUP. Sorted.
What are Mrs May's key characteristics? - Stubborn - Anti-free movement - Favours blackmail as a strategy - Kick the can but can pivot (GE 2017) - Very committed and clued up on her deal.
My conclusion is that she will continue to try to get her deal (including backstop) over the line by "No Deal" blackmail, and when that fails, will go for an extension for a GE on her deal. She won't give up on it.
Because she survived her VONC, she is fireproof within her own party until the end of the year.
Her cabinet supports her deal so will probably support a GE on her deal (rather than a second referendum on her deal). It will get through parliament because Labour will support it.
The Tories will have a clear manifesto based on her deal. Vote for this and get Brexit or stay at home and get Corbyn (the blackmail bit). Labour, on the other hand, will have a real problem with their manifesto and will probably end up with a CU Brexit losing a lot of Remainer Labourites to the LibDems and splitting the centre left vote. Tories get an overall majority and pass her deal with two fingers to the DUP. Sorted.
What are Mrs May's key characteristics? - Stubborn - Anti-free movement - Favours blackmail as a strategy - Kick the can but can pivot (GE 2017) - Very committed and clued up on her deal.
My conclusion is that she will continue to try to get her deal (including backstop) over the line by "No Deal" blackmail, and when that fails, will go for an extension for a GE on her deal. She won't give up on it.
Because she survived her VONC, she is fireproof within her own party until the end of the year.
Her cabinet supports her deal so will probably support a GE on her deal (rather than a second referendum on her deal). It will get through parliament because Labour will support it.
The Tories will have a clear manifesto based on her deal. Vote for this and get Brexit or stay at home and get Corbyn (the blackmail bit). Labour, on the other hand, will have a real problem with their manifesto and will probably end up with a CU Brexit losing a lot of Remainer Labourites to the LibDems and splitting the centre left vote. Tories get an overall majority and pass her deal with two fingers to the DUP. Sorted.
"Tories get an overall majority and pass her deal ..." That's the problematic bit though, isn't it? Getting the ERG to vote for anything but Eurogeddon.
A big overall majority. So two fingers to the ERG as well. Also some of them will have stood as independents and lost their seats.
But, surely if ERG are standing as Independents, that makes the right wing vote split? How does that square with a big majority? Especially as their views re Brexit might chime with their core vote better than Mays deal.
At that point if she really cared about the UK she’d tell the ERG and DUP nutjobs to either accept that or she’ll revoke Article 50 and resign .
It’s astonishing that the country is being held hostage by a at Max a 100 MPs out of 650.
Ip
I hope that next week the HOC gets their act together and takes no deal off the table
That would focus minds
I don't think she has to take ND off the table. She would never go there, so it is effectively off the table already.
I agree that the point will come very soon when she can frankly and bluntly say as you propose - 'My Deal, or Revoke. You choose.'
I am afraid those who think No Deal is off the table are sorely mistaken. No Deal is still what happens if Parliament cannot agree and pass a way forward that is acceptable to the EU. Until that happens No Deal remains the most likely outcome.
You think she would do it, Richard? I know the mechanics take us into it if nobody does anything, but she has the power to stop it with a Revoke letter.
Parliament has the power to stop it by agreeing her Deal, subject possibly to some assistance from the EU in the form of relaxing the deadline.
Personally I dont think she would allow No Deal. She might leave it to the last minute, but at the end of the day, if nobody else blinks, I think she will.
You don't agree?
Yes I think she will. The one thing I think she will not do under any circumstances is revoke. I think she is too stubborn for that.
Thank you, Richard.
Neither of us know her mind, but if that is the only reason, the 8/1 against Revoke must be value.
By the way, I am listening to C4 news as I write and I just heard TM promise NI that she would under no circumstances allow a return to a Hard Border. Is that not ruling out No Deal?
To be fair, they still think the gramophone is witchcraft down in those parts.
I've been to Exeter. It's very nice. But it's on a 45 degree slope...
But the station is pretty much level.
Well, yes. Trains find gradients difficult because the actual surface area in contact with the rail is... Pause. Remember I am actually talking to Sunil, Hindu God of Trains. Okay, I think you know all this already...
Atheist God of trains, surely!
Sunil
Have you done the North Yorkshire Moors railway as a far as Whitby, and if so, is it to be recommended?
I have done Middlesbrough to Whitby on the National Rail diesel train - in that direction only! I tried to do the return, but the NYM train scheduled to run into Whitby had a failure, so the return National Rail train was cancelled! Panic set in, but I quickly found out there was a bus back to 'Boro (I had a hotel booked in Leeds that night in order to do some left-over curves in West Yorkshire).
What are Mrs May's key characteristics? - Stubborn - Anti-free movement - Favours blackmail as a strategy - Kick the can but can pivot (GE 2017) - Very committed and clued up on her deal.
My conclusion is that she will continue to try to get her deal (including backstop) over the line by "No Deal" blackmail, and when that fails, will go for an extension for a GE on her deal. She won't give up on it.
Because she survived her VONC, she is fireproof within her own party until the end of the year.
Her cabinet supports her deal so will probably support a GE on her deal (rather than a second referendum on her deal). It will get through parliament because Labour will support it.
The Tories will have a clear manifesto based on her deal. Vote for this and get Brexit or stay at home and get Corbyn (the blackmail bit). Labour, on the other hand, will have a real problem with their manifesto and will probably end up with a CU Brexit losing a lot of Remainer Labourites to the LibDems and splitting the centre left vote. Tories get an overall majority and pass her deal with two fingers to the DUP. Sorted.
With you up to "The Tories will have a clear manifesto" bit. They may do, but a great many incumbents voted against it and many have publicly trashed it. Will they be de-selected? Also. What else will be in that manifesto? I detect a total absence of any other policies. How do they appeal to those who are more interested in health, education or anything else?
Many Tory MPs voted against it as they thought it could be improved - but now see that it can't. Some are so opposed that they couldn't stand on that manifesto so would resign and stand as independents and lose.
She won't make the same mistake as last time with her manifesto. This is her chance to redeem her reputation. It will be a Brexit only manifesto plus "don't let Corbyn ruin the economy". Corbyn will try to broaden it out as he did last time but Brexit is now top issue.
Hello, first post. A refugee from Order-Order. The site is a joke, too many weirdos and nasty people abound.
Welcome. I hope we've less weirdos and nasties.
Thank you OKC. Read this blog for ages and decided, to be honest, far more interesting and sociable. The language on OrderOrder is disgraceful and I consider myself a man of the world.
Welcome to PB - It is virtually my first place for news these days. And such varied opinions
Cheers Big G. Where about in North Wales, I know it well, at least every inch of the A55
Llandudno, the Queen of Welsh resorts
I've been there by train, and I've done the Great Orme Tramway!
I've walked up Great Orme (the iron ore mines are worth a visit) and taken the tram down,
They may do, but a great many incumbents voted against it and many have publicly trashed it. Will they be de-selected? Also. What else will be in that manifesto? I detect a total absence of any other policies. How do they appeal to those who are more interested in health, education or anything else?
How will they try to appeal to those who are more interested in other issues? Simple. The same as they always do - lie through their teeth and pretend that the Lib Dem policies they are now boasting about in the campaign had their support from the beginning.
To be recommended if you didn't see it, last nights programme on BBC 2 about the Greek crisis and the Euro. Unmissable, inc Mrs Merkel crying!
With Obama consoling her with an arm around her.
It's a fantastic series. The person who has impressed me the most, to my surprise, is Sarkozy. He is crystal clear, sensitive when necessary (rescuing Merkel), but firm when necessary (no, non, nein). A great negotiator. I wish he were on our side.
None of the politicians come out of it well (Dutch exempted, perhaps). Merkel comes over as an intellectually feeble blocker, Osborne so out of his depth that he needs a life jacket and Sarkozy the sort of person who loves himself so much that he’d knock [insert choice] out of the way to give himself a blowjob. The others are equally appalling in their own ways.
Edit. Hollande. The most forgettable President, ever?
Grayling is quite the most incompetent minister in a long time.
He should have gone out of the cabinet months ago
The railways are one part of the economy that should be nationalised, as you are running an inherently loss-making service as a cost of keeping the country connected. The entire concept of franchising is bonkers - this isn’t a banana republic, so the railways cannot be allowed to fail. That all said, Chris Failing is still shite, even given the crap hand he has been dealt.
We agree on Grayling but not nationalisation. It sounds good but I remember British Rail and it was dire and starved of investment. Network rail is nationalised and is largely responsible for the problems
The train companies provide huge investment and once network rail has done its job there will be significant improvements. Indeed the Welsh government have just awarded a 15 year franchise to TFW endorsing a partnership between government and the private sector
Labour want to nationalise rail due to ideology and given a few years under thevRMT wages will be through the roof, restrictive lactices abound, and modernisation including driverless trains will be binned. As the NHS and Education needs continue investment in the railways will be starved sending them into decline as before.
Labour in Wales have shown the way but that is not Corbyn's way
What are Mrs May's key characteristics? - Stubborn - Anti-free movement - Favours blackmail as a strategy - Kick the can but can pivot (GE 2017) - Very committed and clued up on her deal.
My conclusion is that she will continue to try to get her deal (including backstop) over the line by "No Deal" blackmail, and when that fails, will go for an extension for a GE on her deal. She won't give up on it.
Because she survived her VONC, she is fireproof within her own party until the end of the year.
Her cabinet supports her deal so will probably support a GE on her deal (rather than a second referendum on her deal). It will get through parliament because Labour will support it.
The Tories will have a clear manifesto based on her deal. Vote for this and get Brexit or stay at home and get Corbyn (the blackmail bit). Labour, on the other hand, will have a real problem with their manifesto and will probably end up with a CU Brexit losing a lot of Remainer Labourites to the LibDems and splitting the centre left vote. Tories get an overall majority and pass her deal with two fingers to the DUP. Sorted.
"Tories get an overall majority and pass her deal ..." That's the problematic bit though, isn't it? Getting the ERG to vote for anything but Eurogeddon.
A big overall majority. So two fingers to the ERG as well. Also some of them will have stood as independents and lost their seats.
But, surely if ERG are standing as Independents, that makes the right wing vote split? How does that square with a big majority? Especially as their views re Brexit might chime with their core vote better than Mays deal.
That's a good point. It depends on the constituency. Take Redwood in Wokingham. A majority of 31%. He could split the Tory vote in half as an independent but still Labour would not win, particularly as they would be leaking votes to the LDs. Still a good point. Needs a spreadsheet analysis.
To be fair, they still think the gramophone is witchcraft down in those parts.
I've been to Exeter. It's very nice. But it's on a 45 degree slope...
But the station is pretty much level.
Well, yes. Trains find gradients difficult because the actual surface area in contact with the rail is... Pause. Remember I am actually talking to Sunil, Hindu God of Trains. Okay, I think you know all this already...
Atheist God of trains, surely!
I wasn't referring to your lamentable lack of faith. I was referring to your place in the pantheon. Christ isn't a Christian and Gods do not worship themselves. Your atheism does not affect the religion of your followers world wide, who make numerous sacrifices to you involving votive offerings of used tickets, empty sandwich cases, and copies of the Evening Standard...
"Sunil laughed off suggestions that he is a secret acolyte of Letharji, the Hindu God of Sloth."
Probably a number of posters on here will disagree with the following but, it is actually what I think is happening. I hope I am right for many people’s sake and hope some contributors on here possibly agree with me because if I am right, Independence Day is the 29th March 2019.
. So it looks like I might lose my bet and you may have to delay your celebration a bit.
What are Mrs May's key characteristics? - Stubborn - Anti-free movement - Favours blackmail as a strategy - Kick the can but can pivot (GE 2017) - Very committed and clued up on her deal.
My conclusion is that she will continue to try to get her deal (including backstop) over the line by "No Deal" blackmail, and when that fails, will go for an extension for a GE on her deal. She won't give up on it.
Because she survived her VONC, she is fireproof within her own party until the end of the year.
Her cabinet supports her deal so will probably support a GE on her deal (rather than a second referendum on her deal). It will get through parliament because Labour will support it.
The Tories will have a clear manifesto based on her deal. Vote for this and get Brexit or stay at home and get Corbyn (the blackmail bit). Labour, on the other hand, will have a real problem with their manifesto and will probably end up with a CU Brexit losing a lot of Remainer Labourites to the LibDems and splitting the centre left vote. Tories get an overall majority and pass her deal with two fingers to the DUP. Sorted.
With you up to "The Tories will have a clear manifesto" bit. They may do, but a great many incumbents voted against it and many have publicly trashed it. Will they be de-selected? Also. What else will be in that manifesto? I detect a total absence of any other policies. How do they appeal to those who are more interested in health, education or anything else?
Many Tory MPs voted against it as they thought it could be improved - but now see that it can't. Some are so opposed that they couldn't stand on that manifesto so would resign and stand as independents and lose.
She won't make the same mistake as last time with her manifesto. This is her chance to redeem her reputation. It will be a Brexit only manifesto plus "don't let Corbyn ruin the economy". Corbyn will try to broaden it out as he did last time but Brexit is now top issue.
Well fair enough. I just don't see a GE solving anything. If there is one thing which defines May it is personal survival. She had a metaphorical near death experience last time. Can't see her going for it again. I believe she'd try another referendum first. But I do accept I am in a minority there.
What are Mrs May's key characteristics? - Stubborn - Anti-free movement - Favours blackmail as a strategy - Kick the can but can pivot (GE 2017) - Very committed and clued up on her deal.
My conclusion is that she will continue to try to get her deal (including backstop) over the line by "No Deal" blackmail, and when that fails, will go for an extension for a GE on her deal. She won't give up on it.
Because she survived her VONC, she is fireproof within her own party until the end of the year.
Her cabinet supports her deal so will probably support a GE on her deal (rather than a second referendum on her deal). It will get through parliament because Labour will support it.
The Tories will have a clear manifesto based on her deal. Vote for this and get Brexit or stay at home and get Corbyn (the blackmail bit). Labour, on the other hand, will have a real problem with their manifesto and will probably end up with a CU Brexit losing a lot of Remainer Labourites to the LibDems and splitting the centre left vote. Tories get an overall majority and pass her deal with two fingers to the DUP. Sorted.
In answer to the first part of your post....she's a narcissist and egocentric to an extent I can't remember in a party leader let alone a PM. It's unattractive and one of the principle reasons she got under people's skin at the last election. There's only so much ME ME ME ME ME ME ME ME ME ME ME ME ME ME ME ME ME ME ME ME ME ME ME ME that voters can swallow.
We tend to be gloomy about all this, but on a cheerful note I turned 69 today and I've really NEVER found a more interesting time to follow politics. Interesting in the Chinese curse sense, maybe. But fascinating too, isn't it?
Probably a number of posters on here will disagree with the following but, it is actually what I think is happening. I have done my best to follow or at least try to follow the actions of T.May over the last few months, She has offered to the HoC a WA which she and her advisers knew, had no chance whatsoever of gaining approval, she knew 100% in December and 100% in January. Since then, from all reports I can glean she has moved towards modifying it by zero amount but with lots of flourishes added. So, without any massive changes, she is not going to shift the majority of that revolt of 230 MP’s as in the first vote. She also knows that the EU, according to Junkers et al, are not prepared to move on the agreed WA/Backstop. Unless there are some considerable changes to May’s offer, and I don’t mean fiddling with the edges, the next effort should give a similar resounding defeat for her. Why is she doing this? I don’t believe an intelligent woman who is surrounded by some, shall we say, inadvised MP’s, but also some highly respected MP’s and legal advisers, would travel in this direction without an agenda which is the ultimate target for her. I don’t now believe her target is to remain in the EU or even be conjoined to most if any of the major aspects of the EU. She must be aware of the feelings in the country and the inevitable resultant backlash in the event of not leaving or, delaying the EU exit. She and the Conservative party are going to loose so much if she does that. She has to reach her target by upsetting as few people, primarily us, to the extent that Corbyn does not have the opportunity of forming a government. She has to allow MP’s, Remainers, to keep hope of being able to foil us leaving in March, it keeps up her appearance of being a very stubborn woman, mainly to Brexiters, which keeps almost everyone on opposing sides at loggerheads and, most importantly, running down the clock. It may be she is playing a blinder and steering us towards a no deal Brexit on the 29th March this year. I hope I am right for many people’s sake and hope some contributors on here possibly agree with me because if I am right, Independence Day is the 29th March 2019.
It is possible but I am not convinced she will no deal.
Next week, yet again, will provide signposts to the way forward and just how much wriggle room TM actually has. I do not know the timeline for Lord Trimble's judicial review but that may complicate the process even more, with an extension becoming the best option for both sides
I think we can only consider how much wriggle room she might have when, and only when, we can be sure she is telling the truth and we know for definite her ultimate target. If we don't, we have nothing to measure.
To be recommended if you didn't see it, last nights programme on BBC 2 about the Greek crisis and the Euro. Unmissable, inc Mrs Merkel crying!
With Obama consoling her with an arm around her.
It's a fantastic series. The person who has impressed me the most, to my surprise, is Sarkozy. He is crystal clear, sensitive when necessary (rescuing Merkel), but firm when necessary (no, non, nein). A great negotiator. I wish he were on our side.
None of the politicians come out of it well (Dutch exempted, perhaps). Merkel comes over as an intellectually feeble blocker, Osborne so out of his depth that he needs a life jacket and Sarkozy the sort of person who loves himself so much that he’d knock [insert choice] out of the way to give himself a blowjob. The others are equally appalling in their own ways.
Edit. Hollande. The most forgettable President, ever?
I'm with Barnesian et al on this one, Matt. Great series, and Sarkozy extraordinarily impressive.
Probably a number of posters on here will disagree with the following but, it is actually what I think is happening. I hope I am right for many people’s sake and hope some contributors on here possibly agree with me because if I am right, Independence Day is the 29th March 2019.
Apologies for snipping most of your contribution but if you want someone to disagree with you, you've found him and, for your information, I voted LEAVE.
There will be nothing to celebrate on 29/3/19 whether we leave with a Deal or not. The decision to LEAVE is an admission of failure, of our failure and the EU's failure as well.
60 years of history and political direction weren't erased in a single night or by a single referendum. It was a long process withy many levels and factors.
Our half-hearted, mean-spirited, rebate obsessed, opt-out driven travesty of a membership was a disaster both of us and from the EU. The only two coherent positions were all in or all out - instead, like the diner, we spent less time enjoying the food and more time wondering who was going to pay the bill.
Yet the EU are far from blameless - the EEC, a community of nations bound by free trades, the EEC which aimed to bring forward the more economically backward and impoverished regions and help them, that was an organisation I could support.
Yet the EU is the EU of the pernicious mechanism which is the Single Market which worships economic growth on the altar of cheap labour as more and more people are drawn like moths to the flame of the richer areas leaving so many areas behind.
It's a mess - no two ways about it. Could it have been prevented? With political will on both sides, yes, but it was so much easier to get cheap votes defending the shape of bananas.
That is my point, May's plan could be intentionally to leave with no deal and if she has planned that, she has outplayed the EU and, most commentators. If we leave with no deal that is fine with me as a Leaver but I can't understand why, after voting Leave yourself, you would be categorising that as a failure because of the protracted period involved and the way she has carried out her negotiations etc.
To be recommended if you didn't see it, last nights programme on BBC 2 about the Greek crisis and the Euro. Unmissable, inc Mrs Merkel crying!
With Obama consoling her with an arm around her.
It's a fantastic series. The person who has impressed me the most, to my surprise, is Sarkozy. He is crystal clear, sensitive when necessary (rescuing Merkel), but firm when necessary (no, non, nein). A great negotiator. I wish he were on our side.
None of the politicians come out of it well (Dutch exempted, perhaps). Merkel comes over as an intellectually feeble blocker, Osborne so out of his depth that he needs a life jacket and Sarkozy the sort of person who loves himself so much that he’d knock [insert choice] out of the way to give himself a blowjob. The others are equally appalling in their own ways.
Edit. Hollande. The most forgettable President, ever?
I'm with Barnesian et al on this one, Matt. Great series, and Sarkozy extraordinarily impressive.
I don’t deny it’s an extraordinarily interesting piece.
What are Mrs May's key characteristics? - Stubborn - Anti-free movement - Favours blackmail as a strategy - Kick the can but can pivot (GE 2017) - Very committed and clued up on her deal.
My conclusion is that she will continue to try to get her deal (including backstop) over the line by "No Deal" blackmail, and when that fails, will go for an extension for a GE on her deal. She won't give up on it.
Because she survived her VONC, she is fireproof within her own party until the end of the year.
Her cabinet supports her deal so will probably support a GE on her deal (rather than a second referendum on her deal). It will get through parliament because Labour will support it.
The Tories will have a clear manifesto based on her deal. Vote for this and get Brexit or stay at home and get Corbyn (the blackmail bit). Labour, on the other hand, will have a real problem with their manifesto and will probably end up with a CU Brexit losing a lot of Remainer Labourites to the LibDems and splitting the centre left vote. Tories get an overall majority and pass her deal with two fingers to the DUP. Sorted.
"Tories get an overall majority and pass her deal ..." That's the problematic bit though, isn't it? Getting the ERG to vote for anything but Eurogeddon.
A big overall majority. So two fingers to the ERG as well. Also some of them will have stood as independents and lost their seats.
A big overall majority? Depends very much where Labour positions itself.
To be fair, they still think the gramophone is witchcraft down in those parts.
Ironically, there is a very successful music shop in Totnes that has done very well out of the revival of vinyl. Lots of new very limited edition stuff from acts you will never have heard of, and some big box sets of re-issued re-mastered stuff.
They can order you in slightly more mainstream stuff on DVD, but their lip does involuntarily form into a sneer. "Sure we can't interest you in the latest 12" on purple vinyl from Blackballed by Nuns instead, sir?"
Hello, first post. A refugee from Order-Order. The site is a joke, too many weirdos and nasty people abound.
Welcome. I hope we've less weirdos and nasties.
Thank you OKC. Read this blog for ages and decided, to be honest, far more interesting and sociable. The language on OrderOrder is disgraceful and I consider myself a man of the world.
Welcome to PB - It is virtually my first place for news these days. And such varied opinions
Cheers Big G. Where about in North Wales, I know it well, at least every inch of the A55
Llandudno, the Queen of Welsh resorts
I admire it every time i go sea fishing on Anglesey.
Grayling is quite the most incompetent minister in a long time.
He should have gone out of the cabinet months ago
The railways are one part of the economy that should be nationalised, as you are running an inherently loss-making service as a cost of keeping the country connected. The entire concept of franchising is bonkers - this isn’t a banana republic, so the railways cannot be allowed to fail. That all said, Chris Failing is still shite, even given the crap hand he has been dealt.
We agree on Grayling but not nationalisation. It sounds good but I remember British Rail and it was dire and starved of investment. Network rail is nationalised and is largely responsible for the problems
The train companies provide huge investment and once network rail has done its job there will be significant improvements. Indeed the Welsh government have just awarded a 15 year franchise to TFW endorsing a partnership between government and the private sector
Labour want to nationalise rail due to ideology and given a few years under thevRMT wages will be through the roof, restrictive lactices abound, and modernisation including driverless trains will be binned. As the NHS and Education needs continue investment in the railways will be starved sending them into decline as before.
Labour in Wales have shown the way but that is not Corbyn's way
You are assuming that we’d recreate BR, which there is no good reason to do. Other countries manage perfectly well with their railways in the public sector - why are we so down on our own abilities? It’s embarrassing
Grayling is quite the most incompetent minister in a long time.
He should have gone out of the cabinet months ago
The railways are one part of the economy that should be nationalised, as you are running an inherently loss-making service as a cost of keeping the country connected. The entire concept of franchising is bonkers - this isn’t a banana republic, so the railways cannot be allowed to fail. That all said, Chris Failing is still shite, even given the crap hand he has been dealt.
We agree on Grayling but not nationalisation. It sounds good but I remember British Rail and it was dire and starved of investment. Network rail is nationalised and is largely responsible for the problems
The train companies provide huge investment and once network rail has done its job there will be significant improvements. Indeed the Welsh government have just awarded a 15 year franchise to TFW endorsing a partnership between government and the private sector
Labour want to nationalise rail due to ideology and given a few years under thevRMT wages will be through the roof, restrictive lactices abound, and modernisation including driverless trains will be binned. As the NHS and Education needs continue investment in the railways will be starved sending them into decline as before.
Labour in Wales have shown the way but that is not Corbyn's way
You are assuming that we’d recreate BR, which there is no good reason to do. Other countries manage perfectly well with their railways in the public sector - why are we so down on our own abilities? It’s embarrassing
Because our record of public ownership has been frankly atrocious. I don't trust the Government (any Government of any party in this country) to get basic state things like collecting taxes right. Why on earth would I want to let them within a million miles of the railways again?
Hello, first post. A refugee from Order-Order. The site is a joke, too many weirdos and nasty people abound.
Welcome. I hope we've less weirdos and nasties.
Thank you OKC. Read this blog for ages and decided, to be honest, far more interesting and sociable. The language on OrderOrder is disgraceful and I consider myself a man of the world.
Welcome to PB - It is virtually my first place for news these days. And such varied opinions
Cheers Big G. Where about in North Wales, I know it well, at least every inch of the A55
Llandudno, the Queen of Welsh resorts
I've been there by train, and I've done the Great Orme Tramway!
I've walked up Great Orme (the iron ore mines are worth a visit) and taken the tram down,
You could go up in the cable cars and return on the tram or vice versa
It was a very windy day - the cable cars weren't in use.
To be fair, they still think the gramophone is witchcraft down in those parts.
Ironically, there is a very successful music shop in Totnes that has done very well out of the revival of vinyl. Lots of new very limited edition stuff from acts you will never have heard of, and some big box sets of re-issued re-mastered stuff.
They can order you in slightly more mainstream stuff on DVD, but their lip does involuntarily form into a sneer. "Sure we can't interest you in the latest 12" on purple vinyl from Blackballed by Nuns instead, sir?"
Quite right too. Vinyl on a good turntable through a decent preamp can’t be beaten for sound quality. Better than CD, and far, far better than digital and certainly anything involving WiFi and/or Bluetooth.
What are Mrs May's key characteristics? - Stubborn - Anti-free movement - Favours blackmail as a strategy - Kick the can but can pivot (GE 2017) - Very committed and clued up on her deal.
My conclusion is that she will continue to try to get her deal (including backstop) over the line by "No Deal" blackmail, and when that fails, will go for an extension for a GE on her deal. She won't give up on it.
Because she survived her VONC, she is fireproof within her own party until the end of the year.
Her cabinet supports her deal so will probably support a GE on her deal (rather than a second referendum on her deal). It will get through parliament because Labour will support it.
The Tories will have a clear manifesto based on her deal. Vote for this and get Brexit or stay at home and get Corbyn (the blackmail bit). Labour, on the other hand, will have a real problem with their manifesto and will probably end up with a CU Brexit losing a lot of Remainer Labourites to the LibDems and splitting the centre left vote. Tories get an overall majority and pass her deal with two fingers to the DUP. Sorted.
"Tories get an overall majority and pass her deal ..." That's the problematic bit though, isn't it? Getting the ERG to vote for anything but Eurogeddon.
A big overall majority. So two fingers to the ERG as well. Also some of them will have stood as independents and lost their seats.
A big overall majority? Depends very much where Labour positions itself.
Yes. I'm assuming that Labour will take the Corbyn line on Brexit (we're leaving with CU) and lose support to the LDs. He will also try to make it a campaign on NHS, education, jobs etc which he did successfully last time but would fail this time as Brexit is top issue.
Tories on 42% Labour on 34% and LDs on 15% gives Tories an overall majority of 28.
Grayling is quite the most incompetent minister in a long time.
He should have gone out of the cabinet months ago
The railways are one part of the economy that should be nationalised, as you are running an inherently loss-making service as a cost of keeping the country connected. The entire concept of franchising is bonkers - this isn’t a banana republic, so the railways cannot be allowed to fail. That all said, Chris Failing is still shite, even given the crap hand he has been dealt.
We agree on Grayling but not nationalisation. It sounds good but I remember British Rail and it was dire and starved of investment. Network rail is nationalised and is largely responsible for the problems
The train companies provide huge investment and once network rail has done its job there will be significant improvements. Indeed the Welsh government have just awarded a 15 year franchise to TFW endorsing a partnership between government and the private sector
Labour want to nationalise rail due to ideology and given a few years under thevRMT wages will be through the roof, restrictive lactices abound, and modernisation including driverless trains will be binned. As the NHS and Education needs continue investment in the railways will be starved sending them into decline as before.
Labour in Wales have shown the way but that is not Corbyn's way
You are assuming that we’d recreate BR, which there is no good reason to do. Other countries manage perfectly well with their railways in the public sector - why are we so down on our own abilities? It’s embarrassing
Because our record of public ownership has been frankly atrocious. I don't trust the Government (any Government of any party in this country) to get basic state things like collecting taxes right. Why on earth would I want to let them within a million miles of the railways again?
Richard - DOR (Directly Operated Railways) have done a very good job when called in to mop up the mess left behind by the private sector. And, the most popular and successful railway in the UK - London Underground - is state owned.
Hello, first post. A refugee from Order-Order. The site is a joke, too many weirdos and nasty people abound.
Welcome. I hope we've less weirdos and nasties.
Thank you OKC. Read this blog for ages and decided, to be honest, far more interesting and sociable. The language on OrderOrder is disgraceful and I consider myself a man of the world.
Welcome to PB - It is virtually my first place for news these days. And such varied opinions
Cheers Big G. Where about in North Wales, I know it well, at least every inch of the A55
Llandudno, the Queen of Welsh resorts
I've been there by train, and I've done the Great Orme Tramway!
I've walked up Great Orme (the iron ore mines are worth a visit) and taken the tram down,
Point of order. They are not Iron mines. They are the oldest known copper mines in the world dating back to the Bronze Age and produce the copper for many of the Bronze implements archaeologists find across Britain.
Hello, first post. A refugee from Order-Order. The site is a joke, too many weirdos and nasty people abound.
Welcome. I hope we've less weirdos and nasties.
Thank you OKC. Read this blog for ages and decided, to be honest, far more interesting and sociable. The language on OrderOrder is disgraceful and I consider myself a man of the world.
Welcome to PB - It is virtually my first place for news these days. And such varied opinions
Cheers Big G. Where about in North Wales, I know it well, at least every inch of the A55
Llandudno, the Queen of Welsh resorts
I've been there by train, and I've done the Great Orme Tramway!
I've walked up Great Orme (the iron ore mines are worth a visit) and taken the tram down,
Point of order. They are not Iron mines. They are the oldest known copper mines in the world dating back to the Bronze Age and produce the copper for many of the Bronze implements archaeologists find across Britain.
Scientists have found minute traces of workings from these mines in the brass in Jeremy Corbyn's neck, proving that they were worked in the time of the dinosaurs.
To be recommended if you didn't see it, last nights programme on BBC 2 about the Greek crisis and the Euro. Unmissable, inc Mrs Merkel crying!
With Obama consoling her with an arm around her.
It's a fantastic series. The person who has impressed me the most, to my surprise, is Sarkozy. He is crystal clear, sensitive when necessary (rescuing Merkel), but firm when necessary (no, non, nein). A great negotiator. I wish he were on our side.
None of the politicians come out of it well (Dutch exempted, perhaps). Merkel comes over as an intellectually feeble blocker, Osborne so out of his depth that he needs a life jacket and Sarkozy the sort of person who loves himself so much that he’d knock [insert choice] out of the way to give himself a blowjob. The others are equally appalling in their own ways.
Edit. Hollande. The most forgettable President, ever?
I'm with Barnesian et al on this one, Matt. Great series, and Sarkozy extraordinarily impressive.
Hmmm I though GO was OK,, The Greeks were bonkers, THE EU guys all had no idea,, How do you move from 60-62 billion to 500 billion and the ECB move from no help, to anything you want guys.. they were all terrified.
What are Mrs May's key characteristics? - Stubborn - Anti-free movement - Favours blackmail as a strategy - Kick the can but can pivot (GE 2017) - Very committed and clued up on her deal.
My conclusion is that she will continue to try to get her deal (including backstop) over the line by "No Deal" blackmail, and when that fails, will go for an extension for a GE on her deal. She won't give up on it.
Because she survived her VONC, she is fireproof within her own party until the end of the year.
Her cabinet supports her deal so will probably support a GE on her deal (rather than a second referendum on her deal). It will get through parliament because Labour will support it.
The Tories will have a clear manifesto based on her deal. Vote for this and get Brexit or stay at home and get Corbyn (the blackmail bit). Labour, on the other hand, will have a real problem with their manifesto and will probably end up with a CU Brexit losing a lot of Remainer Labourites to the LibDems and splitting the centre left vote. Tories get an overall majority and pass her deal with two fingers to the DUP. Sorted.
"Tories get an overall majority and pass her deal ..." That's the problematic bit though, isn't it? Getting the ERG to vote for anything but Eurogeddon.
A big overall majority. So two fingers to the ERG as well. Also some of them will have stood as independents and lost their seats.
A big overall majority? Depends very much where Labour positions itself.
Yes. I'm assuming that Labour will take the Corbyn line on Brexit (we're leaving with CU) and lose support to the LDs. He will also try to make it a campaign on NHS, education, jobs etc which he did successfully last time but would fail this time as Brexit is top issue.
Tories on 42% Labour on 34% and LDs on 15% gives Tories an overall majority of 28.
The other question is whether she could get enough votes in the House to call an election. My understanding is that most of her own MPs would oppose a GE, so she may come up short.
Hello, first post. A refugee from Order-Order. The site is a joke, too many weirdos and nasty people abound.
Welcome. I hope we've less weirdos and nasties.
Thank you OKC. Read this blog for ages and decided, to be honest, far more interesting and sociable. The language on OrderOrder is disgraceful and I consider myself a man of the world.
Welcome to PB - It is virtually my first place for news these days. And such varied opinions
Cheers Big G. Where about in North Wales, I know it well, at least every inch of the A55
Llandudno, the Queen of Welsh resorts
I've been there by train, and I've done the Great Orme Tramway!
I've walked up Great Orme (the iron ore mines are worth a visit) and taken the tram down,
Point of order. They are not Iron mines. They are the oldest known copper mines in the world dating back to the Bronze Age and produce the copper for many of the Bronze implements archaeologists find across Britain.
Scientists have found minute traces of workings from these mines in the brass in Jeremy Corbyn's neck, proving that they were worked in the time of the dinosaurs.
Hello, first post. A refugee from Order-Order. The site is a joke, too many weirdos and nasty people abound.
Welcome. I hope we've less weirdos and nasties.
Thank you OKC. Read this blog for ages and decided, to be honest, far more interesting and sociable. The language on OrderOrder is disgraceful and I consider myself a man of the world.
Welcome to PB - It is virtually my first place for news these days. And such varied opinions
Cheers Big G. Where about in North Wales, I know it well, at least every inch of the A55
Llandudno, the Queen of Welsh resorts
I admire it every time i go sea fishing on Anglesey.
Hello, first post. A refugee from Order-Order. The site is a joke, too many weirdos and nasty people abound.
Welcome. I hope we've less weirdos and nasties.
Thank you OKC. Read this blog for ages and decided, to be honest, far more interesting and sociable. The language on OrderOrder is disgraceful and I consider myself a man of the world.
Welcome to PB - It is virtually my first place for news these days. And such varied opinions
Cheers Big G. Where about in North Wales, I know it well, at least every inch of the A55
Llandudno, the Queen of Welsh resorts
I've been there by train, and I've done the Great Orme Tramway!
I've walked up Great Orme (the iron ore mines are worth a visit) and taken the tram down,
Point of order. They are not Iron mines. They are the oldest known copper mines in the world dating back to the Bronze Age and produce the copper for many of the Bronze implements archaeologists find across Britain.
They are indeed copper mines.
They are absolutely astonishing. & only discovered in 1987.
What are Mrs May's key characteristics? - Stubborn - Anti-free movement - Favours blackmail as a strategy - Kick the can but can pivot (GE 2017) - Very committed and clued up on her deal.
My conclusion is that she will continue to try to get her deal (including backstop) over the line by "No Deal" blackmail, and when that fails, will go for an extension for a GE on her deal. She won't give up on it.
Because she survived her VONC, she is fireproof within her own party until the end of the year.
Her cabinet supports her deal so will probably support a GE on her deal (rather than a second referendum on her deal). It will get through parliament because Labour will support it.
The Tories will have a clear manifesto based on her deal. Vote for this and get Brexit or stay at home and get Corbyn (the blackmail bit). Labour, on the other hand, will have a real problem with their manifesto and will probably end up with a CU Brexit losing a lot of Remainer Labourites to the LibDems and splitting the centre left vote. Tories get an overall majority and pass her deal with two fingers to the DUP. Sorted.
"Tories get an overall majority and pass her deal ..." That's the problematic bit though, isn't it? Getting the ERG to vote for anything but Eurogeddon.
A big overall majority. So two fingers to the ERG as well. Also some of them will have stood as independents and lost their seats.
A big overall majority? Depends very much where Labour positions itself.
Yes. I'm assuming that Labour will take the Corbyn line on Brexit (we're leaving with CU) and lose support to the LDs. He will also try to make it a campaign on NHS, education, jobs etc which he did successfully last time but would fail this time as Brexit is top issue.
Tories on 42% Labour on 34% and LDs on 15% gives Tories an overall majority of 28.
The other question is whether she could get enough votes in the House to call an election. My understanding is that most of her own MPs would oppose a GE, so she may come up short.
She needs 417 votes. She needs about half of her MPs to vote for it. I'm sure she'd get that, particularly if they thought they could win and achieve Brexit.
Richard - DOR (Directly Operated Railways) have done a very good job when called in to mop up the mess left behind by the private sector. And, the most popular and successful railway in the UK - London Underground - is state owned.
DORs have only been successful because they did nothing. Each time the East Coast Line has been back in public hands all investment has been frozen. It is easy to look good when you don't actually do anything. Oh and the East Coast service has deteriorated considerably since it went back into public hands last year. At least based on the number of times I have reclaimed my fare for delays.
The London Underground is owned by TfL which is predicted (by themselves) to have a debt of £13 billion by 2022. Hardly a sign of a well run operation.
To be recommended if you didn't see it, last nights programme on BBC 2 about the Greek crisis and the Euro. Unmissable, inc Mrs Merkel crying!
With Obama consoling her with an arm around her.
It's a fantastic series. The person who has impressed me the most, to my surprise, is Sarkozy. He is crystal clear, sensitive when necessary (rescuing Merkel), but firm when necessary (no, non, nein). A great negotiator. I wish he were on our side.
None of the politicians come out of it well (Dutch exempted, perhaps). Merkel comes over as an intellectually feeble blocker, Osborne so out of his depth that he needs a life jacket and Sarkozy the sort of person who loves himself so much that he’d knock [insert choice] out of the way to give himself a blowjob. The others are equally appalling in their own ways.
Edit. Hollande. The most forgettable President, ever?
I'm with Barnesian et al on this one, Matt. Great series, and Sarkozy extraordinarily impressive.
Hmmm I though GO was OK,, The Greeks were bonkers, THE EU guys all had no idea,, How do you move from 60-62 billion to 500 billion and the ECB move from no help, to anything you want guys.. they were all terrified.
Yes - the move from 60 billion to 500 billion to 1.5 trillion was amazing. I was impressed by US Treasury Secretary Geithner.
Grayling is quite the most incompetent minister in a long time.
He should have gone out of the cabinet months ago
The railways are one part of the economy that should be nationalised, as you are running an inherently loss-making service as a cost of keeping the country connected. The entire concept of franchising is bonkers - this isn’t a banana republic, so the railways cannot be allowed to fail. That all said, Chris Failing is still shite, even given the crap hand he has been dealt.
We agree on Grayling but not nationalisation. It sounds good but I remember British Rail and it was dire and starved of investment. Network rail is nationalised and is largely responsible for the problems
The train companies provide huge investment and once network rail has done its job there will be significant improvements. Indeed the Welsh government have just awarded a 15 year franchise to TFW endorsing a partnership between government and the private sector
Labour want to nationalise rail due to ideology and given a few years under thevRMT wages will be through the roof, restrictive lactices abound, and modernisation including driverless trains will be binned. As the NHS and Education needs continue investment in the railways will be starved sending them into decline as before.
Labour in Wales have shown the way but that is not Corbyn's way
You are assuming that we’d recreate BR, which there is no good reason to do. Other countries manage perfectly well with their railways in the public sector - why are we so down on our own abilities? It’s embarrassing
Not really. Some of us recall how bad they were and let the RMT have their way costs will rocket, restrictive practices and backwood looking ideas will run wild, trains and stations will be overstaffed, and strikes for ever higher pay continue and driverless trains be off the agenda. Investment will be directed to the NHS and Education as the railways are starved of investment
The good point is that Corbyn cannot get his hands on TFW here in Wales. He will not be in power for 15 years, indeed 15 days is unlikely
Hello, first post. A refugee from Order-Order. The site is a joke, too many weirdos and nasty people abound.
Welcome. I hope we've less weirdos and nasties.
Thank you OKC. Read this blog for ages and decided, to be honest, far more interesting and sociable. The language on OrderOrder is disgraceful and I consider myself a man of the world.
Welcome to PB - It is virtually my first place for news these days. And such varied opinions
Cheers Big G. Where about in North Wales, I know it well, at least every inch of the A55
Llandudno, the Queen of Welsh resorts
I've been there by train, and I've done the Great Orme Tramway!
I've walked up Great Orme (the iron ore mines are worth a visit) and taken the tram down,
You could go up in the cable cars and return on the tram or vice versa
It was a very windy day - the cable cars weren't in use.
You are assuming that we’d recreate BR, which there is no good reason to do. Other countries manage perfectly well with their railways in the public sector - why are we so down on our own abilities? It’s embarrassing
Because our record of public ownership has been frankly atrocious. I don't trust the Government (any Government of any party in this country) to get basic state things like collecting taxes right. Why on earth would I want to let them within a million miles of the railways again?
That, and what's the first thing that happens if Labour renationalises the railways? They'll freeze the fares to appease angry commuters. And who are the angry commuters? Disproportionately, they're wealthy or comfortably-off workers, and disproportionately they're concentrated in the South-East of England.
Ergo, bringing the railways back into public ownership = yet more sweeties for the richest part of the country, which I thought was the sort of thing we were meant to be trying to get away from.
And then, going forward, either the trains are starved of investment because most Government spending increases are set aside for the NHS and pensions, or if it does happen it therefore comes increasingly from general taxation rather than from fare revenues. Better trains for comfortably-off commuters would end up coming out of everybody's income, including that of a great many poor people and those in rural areas who may seldom (if ever) travel by train, but will get to watch more of their money being spent so that the aforementioned commuters may enjoy the privilege of an improved railway without having to cough up more for their tickets.
Finite resources would be better spent on bus services, which are dying on their wheels in most of the country outside of London.
You are assuming that we’d recreate BR, which there is no good reason to do. Other countries manage perfectly well with their railways in the public sector - why are we so down on our own abilities? It’s embarrassing
Because our record of public ownership has been frankly atrocious. I don't trust the Government (any Government of any party in this country) to get basic state things like collecting taxes right. Why on earth would I want to let them within a million miles of the railways again?
That, and what's the first thing that happens if Labour renationalises the railways? They'll freeze the fares to appease angry commuters. And who are the angry commuters? Disproportionately, they're wealthy or comfortably-off workers, and disproportionately they're concentrated in the South-East of England.
Ergo, bringing the railways back into public ownership = yet more sweeties for the richest part of the country, which I thought was the sort of thing we were meant to be trying to get away from.
And then, going forward, either the trains are starved of investment because most Government spending increases are set aside for the NHS and pensions, or if it does happen it therefore comes increasingly from general taxation rather than from fare revenues. Better trains for comfortably-off commuters would end up coming out of everybody's income, including that of a great many poor people and those in rural areas who may seldom (if ever) travel by train, but will get to watch more of their money being spent so that the aforementioned commuters may enjoy the privilege of an improved railway without having to cough up more for their tickets.
Finite resources would be better spent on bus services, which are dying on their wheels in most of the country outside of London.
Comments
Edit: Corrected the spelling of "Cheap" - I blame the free Gin in 1st!
The essential truth (for me) is that if this parliament cannot (sensibly) Brexit then we need another parliament - i.e. a general election will become inevitable.
Supply chains will adjust much faster than predicted, and government will be united in measures to reduce unnecessary friction. Companies already have a lot of plans in place, what’s causing the immediate problems is the uncertainty of which plan to implement.
Next week, yet again, will provide signposts to the way forward and just how much wriggle room TM actually has. I do not know the timeline for Lord Trimble's judicial review but that may complicate the process even more, with an extension becoming the best option for both sides
Depending on the time scale we may both see Brexit off the agenda but as I am 6 years ahead, my time scale is a bit more iffy !!!!!!!!!
Ah, my coat...
And 60% of what we import is frozen.
If she averts no deal at the last moment it's all negative for her (politically speaking). She gains nothing, enough economic damage will be done by that point to be looking for a scapegoat, and people are psychologically incapable of giving credit for a disaster averted.
Sure, she'd much prefer a deal, but she will take us over the cliff if the deal doesn't pass, or the responsibility for the decision isn't taken out of her hands.
I honestly think if May Day wheeled out the podium tonight and said, “well the DUP and ERG are a bunch of utter bellends who would happily throw Britain under a bus to preserve their gammonite wet dreams” she would get her deal through.
tomorrow... Down the road, that’s where I want to be.”
https://youtu.be/IzBQnWlWpRY
But, yes, if all else fails, a General Election. It's the British way.
- Stubborn
- Anti-free movement
- Favours blackmail as a strategy
- Kick the can but can pivot (GE 2017)
- Very committed and clued up on her deal.
My conclusion is that she will continue to try to get her deal (including backstop) over the line by "No Deal" blackmail, and when that fails, will go for an extension for a GE on her deal. She won't give up on it.
Because she survived her VONC, she is fireproof within her own party until the end of the year.
Her cabinet supports her deal so will probably support a GE on her deal (rather than a second referendum on her deal). It will get through parliament because Labour will support it.
The Tories will have a clear manifesto based on her deal. Vote for this and get Brexit or stay at home and get Corbyn (the blackmail bit). Labour, on the other hand, will have a real problem with their manifesto and will probably end up with a CU Brexit losing a lot of Remainer Labourites to the LibDems and splitting the centre left vote. Tories get an overall majority and pass her deal with two fingers to the DUP. Sorted.
Have you done the North Yorkshire Moors railway as a far as Whitby, and if so, is it to be recommended?
He should have gone out of the cabinet months ago
It's a fantastic series. The person who has impressed me the most, to my surprise, is Sarkozy. He is crystal clear, sensitive when necessary (rescuing Merkel), but firm when necessary (no, non, nein). A great negotiator. I wish he were on our side.
They may do, but a great many incumbents voted against it and many have publicly trashed it. Will they be de-selected?
Also. What else will be in that manifesto? I detect a total absence of any other policies.
How do they appeal to those who are more interested in health, education or anything else?
Taxi!
Neither of us know her mind, but if that is the only reason, the 8/1 against Revoke must be value.
By the way, I am listening to C4 news as I write and I just heard TM promise NI that she would under no circumstances allow a return to a Hard Border. Is that not ruling out No Deal?
Is 8/1 looking even more attractive?
She won't make the same mistake as last time with her manifesto. This is her chance to redeem her reputation. It will be a Brexit only manifesto plus "don't let Corbyn ruin the economy". Corbyn will try to broaden it out as he did last time but Brexit is now top issue.
Edit. Hollande. The most forgettable President, ever?
The train companies provide huge investment and once network rail has done its job there will be significant improvements. Indeed the Welsh government have just awarded a 15 year franchise to TFW endorsing a partnership between government and the private sector
Labour want to nationalise rail due to ideology and given a few years under thevRMT wages will be through the roof, restrictive lactices abound, and modernisation including driverless trains will be binned. As the NHS and Education needs continue investment in the railways will be starved sending them into decline as before.
Labour in Wales have shown the way but that is not Corbyn's way
I believe she'd try another referendum first. But I do accept I am in a minority there.
"Inflation in Venezuela will hit 10m per cent this year"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/consumer-affairs/inflation-venezuela-will-hit-ten-million-per-cent-year-speculators/
They can order you in slightly more mainstream stuff on DVD, but their lip does involuntarily form into a sneer. "Sure we can't interest you in the latest 12" on purple vinyl from Blackballed by Nuns instead, sir?"
Tories on 42% Labour on 34% and LDs on 15% gives Tories an overall majority of 28.
Vinyl records
Nationalised railways and
Imperial measurements
I could be accused of being a nostalgist these past few days!!
They are absolutely astonishing. & only discovered in 1987.
The London Underground is owned by TfL which is predicted (by themselves) to have a debt of £13 billion by 2022. Hardly a sign of a well run operation.
The good point is that Corbyn cannot get his hands on TFW here in Wales. He will not be in power for 15 years, indeed 15 days is unlikely
https://twitter.com/stevemorris__/status/1092807628147879939?s=19
Ergo, bringing the railways back into public ownership = yet more sweeties for the richest part of the country, which I thought was the sort of thing we were meant to be trying to get away from.
And then, going forward, either the trains are starved of investment because most Government spending increases are set aside for the NHS and pensions, or if it does happen it therefore comes increasingly from general taxation rather than from fare revenues. Better trains for comfortably-off commuters would end up coming out of everybody's income, including that of a great many poor people and those in rural areas who may seldom (if ever) travel by train, but will get to watch more of their money being spent so that the aforementioned commuters may enjoy the privilege of an improved railway without having to cough up more for their tickets.
Finite resources would be better spent on bus services, which are dying on their wheels in most of the country outside of London.