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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The resilient PM ploughs on to March 29th and her running down

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited February 6 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The resilient PM ploughs on to March 29th and her running down the clock strategy might just work

In a very uncertain political environment in the UK one thing we can predict with some certainty is that these few months in British politics will be the focus of massive amount of study and examination in decades to come. How did we get to where we are and most of all was the PM’s approach the right one?

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • CatManCatMan Posts: 201
    FPT:

    Neither did Remainers - or they would have mentioned it continually in their otherwise misleading adverts.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36462023

    "Throughout the EU referendum campaign, both the Remain and Leave sides have made frequent claims about what might happen to the border in the event of a UK exit from the EU.

    During a visit to Warrenpoint Harbour, in Co Down, Chancellor George Osborne said: "There would have to be a hardening of the border imposed by the British Government or indeed by the Irish Government and that would have an impact on business.
    "
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,015
    I guess the question is when do MPs start panicking in numbers and what will they be able to do at that point? They weren't panicking last week and they don't yet look as though they will be panicking next week. So we can expect to see whatever Theresa May puts to Parliament voted down next week. What else might they be voting on then? And if Deal 1.0.0.0.0.1 is voted down, what is the next stage?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 5,301
    "She was a Remainer she took the view on becoming the PM that it was her duty to implement the result but at the same time to do so in a manner that would cause least damage to the economy."

    She is certainly not prioritising the economy by taking us out of the single market and the customs union.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,523
    CatMan said:

    FPT:

    Neither did Remainers - or they would have mentioned it continually in their otherwise misleading adverts.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36462023

    "Throughout the EU referendum campaign, both the Remain and Leave sides have made frequent claims about what might happen to the border in the event of a UK exit from the EU.

    During a visit to Warrenpoint Harbour, in Co Down, Chancellor George Osborne said: "There would have to be a hardening of the border imposed by the British Government or indeed by the Irish Government and that would have an impact on business.
    "
    Yet we still voted to Leave so harden the border if needed then. Though it's not needed and those pretending the border doesn't exist currently are talking codswallop. The Republic has very different rules on corporation tax, VAT, duties and other taxes. Customs can be just one other difference.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 3,996
    fpt

    One other thing that has changed about Northern Ireland. During the troubles you had politicians like David Trimble and John Hume trying to bring peace to the place. Now you have the DUP and Sinn Fein. Why do people expect the British taxpayer to indefinitely write cheques to keep the place going when it is so alien to them - and even the unionists openly accept 'bribes' from the government? And then the south insists that if we want a customs border NI must be on their side of it. Britain however must keep paying the bills.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 869
    She's a remarkable person. There have been times when I've wanted to hurl something at the wall in frustration with her but, then, long ago Ken Clarke described her as a 'blo0dy difficult woman.'

    She obfuscates and procrastinates but, end of the day, she has a deal which, with one major tweak, she will probably get through Parliament. She took the first defeat on the chin and it was probably always going to happen: MPs wanting to rattle the cage before everyone settled down.

    I thought in the last vote she was absolutely brilliant. In marked contrast to Corbyn.
  • eekeek Posts: 4,772
    Or revoke - and it's anyone's guess which way May will turn after the next vote gets shot down...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 29,841
    FPT

    Neither did Remainers - or they would have mentioned it continually in their otherwise misleading adverts.
    Sir John Major and Tony Blair did.

    THERESA MAY’S visit to Belfast to discuss the so-called backstop should be set in the context of the EU referendum when Sir John Major and Tony Blair undertook a series of joint engagements in Northern Ireland.


    Former premiers who brought about the peace process, they warned that a Leave vote may put Northern Ireland’s “future at risk” by threatening its current stability and re-open Scotland’s independence issue.

    Yet the reaction of Leave campaigners at the time was one of incredulity. Theresa Villiers, the Brexit-supporting Northern Ireland Secretary, said it was “highly irresponsible” to suggest peace was at risk while Arlene Foster, who is still leader of the DUP, said that she found the intervention “rather sad”.


    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/opinion/the-yorkshire-post-says-no-hard-border-sir-john-major-and-tony-blair-were-ignored-over-northern-ireland-1-9575414/amp
    It was highly irresponsible and the actions of Varadkar and Barnier since are also highly irresponsible.

    I agree with Nobel Peace Prize winner David Trimble.
    Perhaps you also agree with Nobel peace prize winner John Hume?

    Try looking up his comments instead of fantasising about them like you did with Leo Varadkar and Scottish independence.
    Just shows what a fantastic place NI is, everybody wants to have it for themselves.
    I’ll withdraw all my criticisms about Brexit if it ultimately leads to NI joining the Republic.
    dont be silly the backstop means NI is forever part of the UK, the EU cant remove it or the UK can go do deals anywhere. Its your Brexit bonus.

    That will be £11billion please.
    Without NI there is no UK. In any case you are assuming that leaving the customs union and single market would be easy for Great Britain were it not for the Irish border.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 9,921
    It will pass if she does a deal with labour...
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 511
    yes, but all TM might (and that is a massive might) do...is get the WA through.......all I can see is a can being kicked down the road for a few months..before the wohle thing rumbles on.....TM has not solved anything but a BINO that her own party will never settle for
  • RogerRoger Posts: 11,801

    It will pass if she does a deal with labour...
    The enigma that is Nadine Dorries. 'What did she do to get past a selection committee to become a candidate in a winnable seat?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 15,743

    It will pass if she does a deal with labour...
    She doesn't even need to do a deal; she just needs to make an offer that enough Labour MPs can accept.

    In fact, I think she'd have to adopt that approach because I doubt that Corbyn would ever do a deal with Tories.
  • I guess the question is when do MPs start panicking in numbers and what will they be able to do at that point? They weren't panicking last week and they don't yet look as though they will be panicking next week. So we can expect to see whatever Theresa May puts to Parliament voted down next week. What else might they be voting on then? And if Deal 1.0.0.0.0.1 is voted down, what is the next stage?

    One striking factor in this (though not necessarily surprising), is that despite all the hot air about parliament taking control and majorities being there for this and that... nothing has really emerged to break the mould. MPs are still stuck in the rut of voting for or against what the government proposes, and any suggestion of novel or contrary thought still fails to break through.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,128

    It will pass if she does a deal with labour...
    Certainly elements of ERG wouldn't pass any deal even if it meant they get to farm unicorns for the rest of their lives.

    May needs to split these loons off from the wider ERG.

    Maybe with 'my deal' or Revoke threat discussed yesterday.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 15,743
    On topic, running down the clock is the only approach that stands a chance of working because until some options are taken off the table by pressure of time, MPs will keep chasing unicorns which makes it impossible to form a majority for anything. There's no majority for any pure solution because there are too many groups and they're too contradictory, and there's no majority for a compromise because there's no mood for it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,462
    I think the role of the EU in "ending the troubles" is overcooked.

    It was a function of the IRA realising they couldn't achieve a military victory, the USA finally closing down funding and support for them, and a sensible political compromise that offered something to all sides, from renaming the RUC, to allowing NI residents to carry either Irish or British passports, and retaining it within the UK until a majority of its residents decide otherwise.

    It was a battle of the heart and soul, not of technocracy. No doubt open borders for goods and trade made that easier, but the UK and Eire already have very open arrangements between each other anyway, and if the EU were being fully constructive they'd be much more flexible.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 9,921

    It will pass if she does a deal with labour...
    She doesn't even need to do a deal; she just needs to make an offer that enough Labour MPs can accept.

    In fact, I think she'd have to adopt that approach because I doubt that Corbyn would ever do a deal with Tories.
    She needs 20 or 30 Labour votes, that's enough to require an actual understanding, not less. Whether it's a "deal" I guess depends whether you think only Corbyn can make a deal.
  • gypsumfantasticgypsumfantastic Posts: 258
    edited February 6
    The danger with May's strategy is that whilst she believes that she's the one running down the clock, she isn't. She's not in control of the agenda.

    The ERG and the DUP and Corbyn are running down the clock. May is simply strapped into the driver's seat and pretending that she doesn't know the brakes have been cut.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 11,801
    Their was an Irish woman on the radio this morning and in keeping with their tradition of great writers poets and thinkers described Brexit as "The Big Stupid".

    It's almost a perfect description.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 11,619
    So when I look at the general principle I think, she's got the middle option, both the alternatives are much worse to the opposite factions, if she holds firm one of them will suck it up and vote for her deal.

    But then I think: OK, who specifically is going to do that? And I can't think of enough guys, which says to me that she has no plan and she'll be the one who ends up sucking it up and doing... well, who knows what she'll do.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,462

    FPT

    Neither did Remainers - or they would have mentioned it continually in their otherwise misleading adverts.
    Sir John Major and Tony Blair did.

    THERESA MAY’S visit to Belfast to discuss the so-called backstop should be set in the context of the EU referendum when Sir John Major and Tony Blair undertook a series of joint engagements in Northern Ireland.


    Former premiers who brought about the peace process, they warned that a Leave vote may put Northern Ireland’s “future at risk” by threatening its current stability and re-open Scotland’s independence issue.

    Yet the reaction of Leave campaigners at the time was one of incredulity. Theresa Villiers, the Brexit-supporting Northern Ireland Secretary, said it was “highly irresponsible” to suggest peace was at risk while Arlene Foster, who is still leader of the DUP, said that she found the intervention “rather sad”.


    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/opinion/the-yorkshire-post-says-no-hard-border-sir-john-major-and-tony-blair-were-ignored-over-northern-ireland-1-9575414/amp
    It was highly irresponsible and the actions of Varadkar and Barnier since are also highly irresponsible.

    I agree with Nobel Peace Prize winner David Trimble.
    Perhaps you also agree with Nobel peace prize winner John Hume?

    Try looking up his comments instead of fantasising about them like you did with Leo Varadkar and Scottish independence.
    Just shows what a fantastic place NI is, everybody wants to have it for themselves.
    I’ll withdraw all my criticisms about Brexit if it ultimately leads to NI joining the Republic.
    dont be silly the backstop means NI is forever part of the UK, the EU cant remove it or the UK can go do deals anywhere. Its your Brexit bonus.

    That will be £11billion please.
    Without NI there is no UK. In any case you are assuming that leaving the customs union and single market would be easy for Great Britain were it not for the Irish border.
    There is, we'd simply become the United Kingdom of Great Britain (without the Northern Ireland bit).

    Strictly speaking, the red diagonal cross on the Union flag would become historic, and some may argue the flag should revert to its 18thC design, but in practice I very much doubt that would happen.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 35,031
    Most disappointed to log in this morning and find we are again talking about Brexit and not biscuits.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,462
    eek said:

    Or revoke - and it's anyone's guess which way May will turn after the next vote gets shot down...
    There is no majority in the House of Commons for unilateral revocation.

    I doubt this would happen even at 10.59pm on 29th March with No Deal seconds away.

  • She needs 20 or 30 Labour votes, that's enough to require an actual understanding, not less. Whether it's a "deal" I guess depends whether you think only Corbyn can make a deal.

    Any Labour MP who aids and abets the delivery of a hard Tory Brexit will not only be ending their career, but will be ensuring their names get written in blood in the annals of the very worst traitors to the movement. And the judgment of the movement on those quisling fucks will be as nothing compared to the monstering that Labour voters will deliver unto them.

    It's not a thing any sane Labour MP with serious hopes of remaining such after the next election will seriously contemplate.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 11,801

    Most disappointed to log in this morning and find we are again talking about Brexit and not biscuits.

    Most Hartlepudlians think it is a biscuit
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 9,921


    She needs 20 or 30 Labour votes, that's enough to require an actual understanding, not less. Whether it's a "deal" I guess depends whether you think only Corbyn can make a deal.

    Any Labour MP who aids and abets the delivery of a hard Tory Brexit will not only be ending their career, but will be ensuring their names get written in blood in the annals of the very worst traitors to the movement. And the judgment of the movement on those quisling fucks will be as nothing compared to the monstering that Labour voters will deliver unto them.

    It's not a thing any sane Labour MP with serious hopes of remaining such after the next election will seriously contemplate.
    I needed a good laugh this morning, thanks.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 511

    I think the role of the EU in "ending the troubles" is overcooked.

    It was a function of the IRA realising they couldn't achieve a military victory, the USA finally closing down funding and support for them, and a sensible political compromise that offered something to all sides, from renaming the RUC, to allowing NI residents to carry either Irish or British passports, and retaining it within the UK until a majority of its residents decide otherwise.

    It was a battle of the heart and soul, not of technocracy. No doubt open borders for goods and trade made that easier, but the UK and Eire already have very open arrangements between each other anyway, and if the EU were being fully constructive they'd be much more flexible.

    A fair analysis, but wounds are being reopened on a number of sides that were patched over (in part exacerbated by the GFA and EU withdrawal) , a sense of loss by Republicans(or even Loyalists) can quickly become a greivance....the rest is history - just because you think you cant win a military victory doesnt equate to giving up - we should be very concerned about how the DUP's hold on the process will be perceived - I for one fear real problems regarding the Union in the next 2-5 years as a result if TM's approach to GB, NI and BREXIT.
  • It will pass if she does a deal with labour...
    Certainly elements of ERG wouldn't pass any deal even if it meant they get to farm unicorns for the rest of their lives.

    May needs to split these loons off from the wider ERG.

    Maybe with 'my deal' or Revoke threat discussed yesterday.
    The ERG would choose revoke in that case. It's easily the better of the two options for them.

    The danger with making "it's me or the dog" style ultimatums is that there's a high chance they're gonna choose the dog.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 14,807
    "might just work" = leaving with no deal.

    What a mess.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,213
    edited February 6
    Really good painting.

    May is still trying to find a way to thread the needle between various intransigent groups. I suspect that she has long since stopped caring what the solution is provided that she can find one that will both meet the approval of the EU and pass Parliament.

    It remains a difficult task. On the positive side what she brings to the task is determination, hard work, diligence and an attention to detail. Unfortunately she also brings a remarkably unpersuasive personality, a lack of collegiality and an inability to read people sufficiently well to find out where the margins for an agreement are. Her tendency to think that she has solved a problem because she has given a speech about it is particularly unfortunate.
  • A fine portrait by your daughter-in-law Mike ... clearly she has an outstanding talent (your daughter-in-law that is, not the subject!)

    O/T with apols, but I've just noticed a new betting market offered by smarkets, based on Labour's share of the vote at the next GE (odds are also available for other parties), which at first glance appears to offer an almost guaranteed return by selecting two tranches of support.
    For 20%-29% they go 6.6
    For 30-39% they go 2.14
    Therefore, by staking 24.49% on the lower band and the remaining 75.51% on the upper band, a 60.4% profit is achieved, net of their 2% commission, should either band prove successful. EXCEPT for the fact that there's just an itsy, bitsy snag. Should Labour's share of the vote fall in the 1% band between 29.01%-29.99% range, you would then lose your dough.
    Clever but crafty marketing by smarkets it would appear. Still they appear to be alone in coming up with innovative markets for the next GE, which is no bad thing considering that the bookmaking fraternity consider there is a 30% likelihood of this taking place during 2019.
  • eek said:

    Or revoke - and it's anyone's guess which way May will turn after the next vote gets shot down...
    There is no majority in the House of Commons for unilateral revocation.

    I doubt this would happen even at 10.59pm on 29th March with No Deal seconds away.
    She wouldn't need HoC consent to write a letter revoking A50. She could just do it.

    She has said that she will not allow No Deal. Now I know she has in the past said one thing and done another but this would be one hell of a call.

    Personally, I think she would revoke, but nobody will know until the situation arises.

  • I needed a good laugh this morning, thanks.

    I think "sane Labour MP" are like santa claus. It's fun to pretend they exist, but it's very hard to maintain that belief into adulthood.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 9,921

    A fine portrait by your daughter-in-law Mike ... clearly she has an outstanding talent (your daughter-in-law that is, not the subject!)

    O/T with apols, but I've just noticed a new betting market offered by smarkets, based on Labour's share of the vote at the next GE (odds are also available for other parties), which at first glance appears to offer an almost guaranteed return by selecting two tranches of support.
    For 20%-29% they go 6.6
    For 30-39% they go 2.14
    Therefore, by staking 24.49% on the lower band and the remaining 75.51% on the upper band, a 60.4% profit is achieved, net of their 2% commission, should either band prove successful. EXCEPT for the fact that there's just an itsy, bitsy snag. Should Labour's share of the vote fall in the 1% band between 29.01%-29.99% range, you would then lose your dough.
    Clever but crafty marketing by smarkets it would appear. Still they appear to be alone in coming up with innovative markets for the next GE, which is no bad thing considering that the bookmaking fraternity consider there is a 30% likelihood of this taking place during 2019.

    Did Smarkets really intend a gap in their markets like that? Surely their upside is at 40+
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 11,619


    She needs 20 or 30 Labour votes, that's enough to require an actual understanding, not less. Whether it's a "deal" I guess depends whether you think only Corbyn can make a deal.

    Any Labour MP who aids and abets the delivery of a hard Tory Brexit will not only be ending their career, but will be ensuring their names get written in blood in the annals of the very worst traitors to the movement. And the judgment of the movement on those quisling fucks will be as nothing compared to the monstering that Labour voters will deliver unto them.

    It's not a thing any sane Labour MP with serious hopes of remaining such after the next election will seriously contemplate.
    Can parliament vote for itself to have a secret ballot?
  • Awb683Awb683 Posts: 75
    Now it's 'precipice' - get a grip!!
  • Hello fellow tower, long time no speak!

  • A fair analysis, but wounds are being reopened on a number of sides that were patched over (in part exacerbated by the GFA and EU withdrawal) , a sense of loss by Republicans(or even Loyalists) can quickly become a greivance....the rest is history - just because you think you cant win a military victory doesnt equate to giving up - we should be very concerned about how the DUP's hold on the process will be perceived - I for one fear real problems regarding the Union in the next 2-5 years as a result if TM's approach to GB, NI and BREXIT.

    The way the DUP have been allowed, nay encouraged, to speak as if they represent the whole of Northern Ireland, when they're far out on a limb compared to what NI wants (NI to remain in the EU, or near as dammit by a watertight legal backstop) is storing up vast gobs of grievance.

    The 360 degree catastrofuck of Brexit is probably seeding decades of grievance for us to fight and die over. The Brexit show trials are gonna be amazing.
  • eekeek Posts: 4,772
    Roger said:

    It will pass if she does a deal with labour...
    The enigma that is Nadine Dorries. 'What did she do to get past a selection committee to become a candidate in a winnable seat?
    You have to ask how bad were the other people on the shortlist...
  • RogerRoger Posts: 11,801
    If anyone remembers Major's 'bastards' their similarity in weirdness to the ERG is uncanny
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    Macron has had a bounce since the new year. The issue he faces is that he is promising lots of things to lots of people from his debat nationale. He is raising expectations looking at what is on his plate he can only disappoint.
    The PB Tory Leavers are weirdly obsessed with Macron – to the extent that they simply cannot see what is staring them in the face.

    The Yellow Bellies (or whatever they are called) have been a massive boost for Macca, who can now present himself as a sensible, pro-business moderate in the face of a bunch of crackpot Brexity nutters.

    His approvals are very strong given that France has a run-off system. Looks a strong bet for re-election to me, as much as the PB Tory Leavers fantasise otherwise.

  • Can parliament vote for itself to have a secret ballot?

    Yes. There are a few things that are now done by secret ballot: the election of the speaker and the election of select committee chairs. But you do have to amend the standing orders, and the government controls that process.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 1,687


    She doesn't even need to do a deal; she just needs to make an offer that enough Labour MPs can accept.

    That's going to need a very sizeable number of Lab rebels though. 275 Con + 45 Lab? Looking like quite a stretch even to get that 275 side of the equation.

    Perhaps if Corbyn just lets it be known he won't mind abstainers ......
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 9,921
    _Anazina_ said:

    Macron has had a bounce since the new year. The issue he faces is that he is promising lots of things to lots of people from his debat nationale. He is raising expectations looking at what is on his plate he can only disappoint.
    The PB Tory Leavers are weirdly obsessed with Macron – to the extent that they simply cannot see what is staring them in the face.

    The Yellow Bellies (or whatever they are called) have been a massive boost for Macca, who can now present himself as a sensible, pro-business moderate in the face of a bunch of crackpot Brexity nutters.

    His approvals are very strong given that France has a run-off system. Looks a strong bet for re-election to me, as much as the PB Tory Leavers fantasise otherwise.
    His approvals are OK. They don't carry into VI in the same way, because people who would back Macron in a run-off would be inclined to 'approve' of him now.

    He was wrong-footed by the Gjs initially and is fighting his way back. I'm still not sure they have been a net positive for him.
  • Hello fellow tower, long time no speak!

    Nice to see you back. I was getting worried.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315

    'There is, we'd simply become the United Kingdom of Great Britain (without the Northern Ireland bit).

    Strictly speaking, the red diagonal cross on the Union flag would become historic, and some may argue the flag should revert to its 18thC design, but in practice I very much doubt that would happen.'

    The diagonal red cross is actually the St Patrick saltire - and the general understanding is that he was a Welshman who was captured by Irish pirates and taken to Ireland as a slave. So presumably nothing wrong with keeping that element of the flag to celebrate a great Welshman!

    We are all aware that Australia and New Zealand still have the union flag on their national flags - but so do several Canadian provinces (e.g. Manitoba, British Colombia and Ontario) as does Fiji. Even the flag of Hawaii has a union flag on it - as their King wanted to celebrate their friendship with Britain. So I presume they wouldn't change their flags either - providing they celebrated 17 March with a pint of Guinness.
  • Andrew said:


    She doesn't even need to do a deal; she just needs to make an offer that enough Labour MPs can accept.

    That's going to need a very sizeable number of Lab rebels though. 275 Con + 45 Lab? Looking like quite a stretch even to get that 275 side of the equation.

    Perhaps if Corbyn just lets it be known he won't mind abstainers ......
    It's very clear what May needs to offer to win Labour's support. May needs to offer something that passes Labour's six tests. Which is, by design, impossible.

    Norway+ would meet five of them, but RoboMay would have to give up her beloved xenophobia and relent on FoM first. But nobody is prepared to install the firmware update to allow the Maybot to demonstrate that kind of flexibility.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 12,787


    She needs 20 or 30 Labour votes, that's enough to require an actual understanding, not less. Whether it's a "deal" I guess depends whether you think only Corbyn can make a deal.

    Any Labour MP who aids and abets the delivery of a hard Tory Brexit will not only be ending their career, but will be ensuring their names get written in blood in the annals of the very worst traitors to the movement. And the judgment of the movement on those quisling fucks will be as nothing compared to the monstering that Labour voters will deliver unto them.

    It's not a thing any sane Labour MP with serious hopes of remaining such after the next election will seriously contemplate.
    You put these things rather more strongly than I do, but essentially I think you're correct. It takes hard work to alienate the entire centrist wing and the entire Corbynite wing at one fell swoop, but voting for a hard Tory Brexit would pull it off.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,462


    She needs 20 or 30 Labour votes, that's enough to require an actual understanding, not less. Whether it's a "deal" I guess depends whether you think only Corbyn can make a deal.

    Any Labour MP who aids and abets the delivery of a hard Tory Brexit will not only be ending their career, but will be ensuring their names get written in blood in the annals of the very worst traitors to the movement. And the judgment of the movement on those quisling fucks will be as nothing compared to the monstering that Labour voters will deliver unto them.

    It's not a thing any sane Labour MP with serious hopes of remaining such after the next election will seriously contemplate.
    Can parliament vote for itself to have a secret ballot?
    The idea of Parliament sneaking itself a vote to unilaterally overturn the referendum result, totally anonymously, is both cowardly and absolutely disgusting.

    It's no surprise someone like you supports it.

    It's entirely in keeping with your contemptuous, pompous and conceited globalist fundamentalist absolutism, which exhibits a zeal even William Glenn would struggle to match.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315


    A fair analysis, but wounds are being reopened on a number of sides that were patched over (in part exacerbated by the GFA and EU withdrawal) , a sense of loss by Republicans(or even Loyalists) can quickly become a greivance....the rest is history - just because you think you cant win a military victory doesnt equate to giving up - we should be very concerned about how the DUP's hold on the process will be perceived - I for one fear real problems regarding the Union in the next 2-5 years as a result if TM's approach to GB, NI and BREXIT.

    The way the DUP have been allowed, nay encouraged, to speak as if they represent the whole of Northern Ireland, when they're far out on a limb compared to what NI wants (NI to remain in the EU, or near as dammit by a watertight legal backstop) is storing up vast gobs of grievance.

    The 360 degree catastrofuck of Brexit is probably seeding decades of grievance for us to fight and die over. The Brexit show trials are gonna be amazing.
    Apart from Lady Hermon however the DUP represent the entire NI parliamentary delegation to the UK parliament. Its the fault of Nationalists they have no actual representation in Westminster - as so many chose to vote for Sinn Fein instead of supporting the SDLP - who always took their seats. That is first past the post for you!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,462

    eek said:

    Or revoke - and it's anyone's guess which way May will turn after the next vote gets shot down...
    There is no majority in the House of Commons for unilateral revocation.

    I doubt this would happen even at 10.59pm on 29th March with No Deal seconds away.
    She wouldn't need HoC consent to write a letter revoking A50. She could just do it.

    She has said that she will not allow No Deal. Now I know she has in the past said one thing and done another but this would be one hell of a call.

    Personally, I think she would revoke, but nobody will know until the situation arises.
    You are wrong. You fundamentally misunderstand her.

    She will not revoke. She may punt it out another couple of months, but she will never revoke.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 9,921


    She needs 20 or 30 Labour votes, that's enough to require an actual understanding, not less. Whether it's a "deal" I guess depends whether you think only Corbyn can make a deal.

    Any Labour MP who aids and abets the delivery of a hard Tory Brexit will not only be ending their career, but will be ensuring their names get written in blood in the annals of the very worst traitors to the movement. And the judgment of the movement on those quisling fucks will be as nothing compared to the monstering that Labour voters will deliver unto them.

    It's not a thing any sane Labour MP with serious hopes of remaining such after the next election will seriously contemplate.
    You put these things rather more strongly than I do, but essentially I think you're correct. It takes hard work to alienate the entire centrist wing and the entire Corbynite wing at one fell swoop, but voting for a hard Tory Brexit would pull it off.
    While Corbyn, leaver, is leader, then I won't think they will be feeling too unconfortable.
  • felixfelix Posts: 8,889


    She needs 20 or 30 Labour votes, that's enough to require an actual understanding, not less. Whether it's a "deal" I guess depends whether you think only Corbyn can make a deal.

    Any Labour MP who aids and abets the delivery of a hard Tory Brexit will not only be ending their career, but will be ensuring their names get written in blood in the annals of the very worst traitors to the movement. And the judgment of the movement on those quisling fucks will be as nothing compared to the monstering that Labour voters will deliver unto them.

    It's not a thing any sane Labour MP with serious hopes of remaining such after the next election will seriously contemplate.
    At least that nunber of very sane Labour MPs see no future in a Corbyn led Labour party. They have nothing to lose and know it.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 16,747
    Honestly if the PM can secure a legally binding time limit on the backstop then the deal goes from crap to good. The ERG would join the camp of traitorous pigdogs if they voted it down to try and force no deal. I might actually start to prefer remain over no deal just so they don't get their way.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 29,841


    She needs 20 or 30 Labour votes, that's enough to require an actual understanding, not less. Whether it's a "deal" I guess depends whether you think only Corbyn can make a deal.

    Any Labour MP who aids and abets the delivery of a hard Tory Brexit will not only be ending their career, but will be ensuring their names get written in blood in the annals of the very worst traitors to the movement. And the judgment of the movement on those quisling fucks will be as nothing compared to the monstering that Labour voters will deliver unto them.

    It's not a thing any sane Labour MP with serious hopes of remaining such after the next election will seriously contemplate.
    Can parliament vote for itself to have a secret ballot?
    The idea of Parliament sneaking itself a vote to unilaterally overturn the referendum result, totally anonymously, is both cowardly and absolutely disgusting.

    It's no surprise someone like you supports it.

    It's entirely in keeping with your contemptuous, pompous and conceited globalist fundamentalist absolutism, which exhibits a zeal even William Glenn would struggle to match.
    You need a strong Europe to protect you from these globalist fanatics. :)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,462

    On topic, running down the clock is the only approach that stands a chance of working because until some options are taken off the table by pressure of time, MPs will keep chasing unicorns which makes it impossible to form a majority for anything. There's no majority for any pure solution because there are too many groups and they're too contradictory, and there's no majority for a compromise because there's no mood for it.

    That's a fair summary.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 12,787
    I see Burgon has had an early £30K Valentine present from the Sun.
  • felixfelix Posts: 8,889
    _Anazina_ said:

    Macron has had a bounce since the new year. The issue he faces is that he is promising lots of things to lots of people from his debat nationale. He is raising expectations looking at what is on his plate he can only disappoint.
    The PB Tory Leavers are weirdly obsessed with Macron – to the extent that they simply cannot see what is staring them in the face.

    The Yellow Bellies (or whatever they are called) have been a massive boost for Macca, who can now present himself as a sensible, pro-business moderate in the face of a bunch of crackpot Brexity nutters.

    His approvals are very strong given that France has a run-off system. Looks a strong bet for re-election to me, as much as the PB Tory Leavers fantasise otherwise.
    And yet France remains largely unreformed - Macron a popular Emperor maybe but he's got no clothes.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,353
    rkrkrk said:

    "She was a Remainer she took the view on becoming the PM that it was her duty to implement the result but at the same time to do so in a manner that would cause least damage to the economy."

    She is certainly not prioritising the economy by taking us out of the single market and the customs union.

    Quite.
  • "The question of the island of Ireland was always going to be a big issue and one which simply wasn’t focused by Leave during the referendum campaign."

    It wasn't really focused on be Remain. Nigel Lawson (Vote Leave) did note that border checks would be required.

    http://www.irishnews.com/news/2016/04/11/news/former-chancellor-lawson-says-brexit-would-mean-irish-border-controls-481442/
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 9,921
    Deutsche:

    “The start of the German economy into 2019 has been a major disappointment so far.

    “The development of several key cyclical indicators is telling us that the German economy is drifting towards recession right now.”

    ouch.
  • felix said:


    She needs 20 or 30 Labour votes, that's enough to require an actual understanding, not less. Whether it's a "deal" I guess depends whether you think only Corbyn can make a deal.

    Any Labour MP who aids and abets the delivery of a hard Tory Brexit will not only be ending their career, but will be ensuring their names get written in blood in the annals of the very worst traitors to the movement. And the judgment of the movement on those quisling fucks will be as nothing compared to the monstering that Labour voters will deliver unto them.

    It's not a thing any sane Labour MP with serious hopes of remaining such after the next election will seriously contemplate.
    At least that nunber of very sane Labour MPs see no future in a Corbyn led Labour party. They have nothing to lose and know it.
    This would make you a persona non grata in the every single wing of Labour, not just Corbynite. Vote for a hard Tory Brexit to spite Jeremy Corbyn if you like, but don't expect Chuka Umunna to invite you to any FBPE dinner parties afterwards.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 35,031

    I see Burgon has had an early £30K Valentine present from the Sun.

    He doesn't want to go spending it just yet, the Sun are appealing.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 26,286
    Responding to @another_richard from the last thread...

    What did people see in Dr Liam Fox?

    I think we've all worked with people who were superficially very plausible. They look you in the eye. They speak to you with confidence. Admirable qualities in a doctor, and pretty good ones in a politician.

    But the DfIT isn't a job for those with confidence and assurance, it's managing a large department, and knowing a thousand details. It requires understanding complex issues, huge tomes of international law, and being able to understand both the needs of the British economy and understanding what our trading partners want.

    Dr Fox came into the DfIT full of vim and vigour. He knew what - big picture - he wanted. He wanted to spearhead a change in the direction of Britain away from its continental neighbours and towards the Anglosphere. 20-odd experienced trade negotiators were sent off to Canberra to discuss plans for a post-Brexit deal with the Australians. Another team decamped to Washington DC. He got a team of bright civil servants to write a paper on "Tariffs for a 21st Century Britain".

    But what he totally failed to focus on, because it was boring and minutiae, was the UK's existing arrangements through the EU. These weren't just free trade deals, but mutual standards agreements, and dispute recognition mechanisms.

    The very first priority for the DfIT had to be in replicating existing trading agreements as much as possible. So, that meant working out a replacement for the Atlantic Council (which deals with US-EU trade), and a million other small things.

    This failure massively weakened the hands of Britain's negotiators in Brussels. Claiming you were ready to leave without a deal when you had done so little to prepare the groundwork make our threats - at best - seem hollow.

    Dr Fox would, I suspect, make an excellent Conservative Party Chairman. Sadly, that was not the role he was thrust into.

  • She needs 20 or 30 Labour votes, that's enough to require an actual understanding, not less. Whether it's a "deal" I guess depends whether you think only Corbyn can make a deal.

    Any Labour MP who aids and abets the delivery of a hard Tory Brexit will not only be ending their career, but will be ensuring their names get written in blood in the annals of the very worst traitors to the movement. And the judgment of the movement on those quisling fucks will be as nothing compared to the monstering that Labour voters will deliver unto them.

    It's not a thing any sane Labour MP with serious hopes of remaining such after the next election will seriously contemplate.
    You put these things rather more strongly than I do, but essentially I think you're correct. It takes hard work to alienate the entire centrist wing and the entire Corbynite wing at one fell swoop, but voting for a hard Tory Brexit would pull it off.
    You have to remember that Labour has many different types of supporters. Are the WWC in the North of England ( traditional labour, who voted overwhelmingly to leave) going to ditch their MPS for giving them their wishes. Not every Labour supporter is a member of the chattering class in Islington.
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 457

    "The question of the island of Ireland was always going to be a big issue and one which simply wasn’t focused by Leave during the referendum campaign."

    It wasn't really focused on be Remain. Nigel Lawson (Vote Leave) did note that border checks would be required.

    http://www.irishnews.com/news/2016/04/11/news/former-chancellor-lawson-says-brexit-would-mean-irish-border-controls-481442/

    A lie.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/09/tony-blair-and-john-major-brexit-would-close-irish-border
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,462

    It will pass if she does a deal with labour...
    She doesn't even need to do a deal; she just needs to make an offer that enough Labour MPs can accept.

    In fact, I think she'd have to adopt that approach because I doubt that Corbyn would ever do a deal with Tories.
    If I had to guess, I'd say the most likely outcome at present is that the WA passes with additional workers and environmental rights, and a permanent customs union for goods, with the backstop only applying to NI wrt. single market rules for goods and agriculture. Maybe the UK could get some extra wording in the political declaration that it'd be consulted on any future trade deals the EU made that involved its customs territory too.

    I'd expect about 90 Tory MPs to still vote against this, but perhaps 50 Labour MPs to come on board.

    That'd get her up to about 275 votes. She'd either need a lot of abstentions on both sides, or Corbyn to whip the WA for it to pass as otherwise she'd still have 355 votes or so against it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,462


    She needs 20 or 30 Labour votes, that's enough to require an actual understanding, not less. Whether it's a "deal" I guess depends whether you think only Corbyn can make a deal.

    Any Labour MP who aids and abets the delivery of a hard Tory Brexit will not only be ending their career, but will be ensuring their names get written in blood in the annals of the very worst traitors to the movement. And the judgment of the movement on those quisling fucks will be as nothing compared to the monstering that Labour voters will deliver unto them.

    It's not a thing any sane Labour MP with serious hopes of remaining such after the next election will seriously contemplate.
    Can parliament vote for itself to have a secret ballot?
    The idea of Parliament sneaking itself a vote to unilaterally overturn the referendum result, totally anonymously, is both cowardly and absolutely disgusting.

    It's no surprise someone like you supports it.

    It's entirely in keeping with your contemptuous, pompous and conceited globalist fundamentalist absolutism, which exhibits a zeal even William Glenn would struggle to match.
    You need a strong Europe to protect you from these globalist fanatics. :)
    I rest my case! :smile:
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 869
    Roger said:

    Their was an Irish woman on the radio this morning and in keeping with their tradition of great writers poets and thinkers described Brexit as "The Big Stupid".

    It's almost a perfect description.

    The kind of staggering patronising metropolitan elitist comment that makes the Leave vote harden their resolve.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,771

    I think the role of the EU in "ending the troubles" is overcooked.

    It was a function of the IRA realising they couldn't achieve a military victory, the USA finally closing down funding and support for them, and a sensible political compromise that offered something to all sides, from renaming the RUC, to allowing NI residents to carry either Irish or British passports, and retaining it within the UK until a majority of its residents decide otherwise.

    It was a battle of the heart and soul, not of technocracy. No doubt open borders for goods and trade made that easier, but the UK and Eire already have very open arrangements between each other anyway, and if the EU were being fully constructive they'd be much more flexible.

    The last four books I have read relate to the Troubles and the run up to the GFA.

    The EU just doesn't figure.

  • You have to remember that Labour has many different types of supporters. Are the WWC in the North of England ( traditional labour, who voted overwhelmingly to leave) going to ditch their MPS for giving them their wishes. Not every Labour supporter is a member of the chattering class in Islington.

    It's a difficult call. Because they know that a significant minority of their support would have voted remain. If you enable a hard Tory Brexit, they'll hate you forever. And Labour voters are highly tribal. The Labour leavers will hate you for enabling a *Tory* Brexit.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 15,743

    It will pass if she does a deal with labour...
    She doesn't even need to do a deal; she just needs to make an offer that enough Labour MPs can accept.

    In fact, I think she'd have to adopt that approach because I doubt that Corbyn would ever do a deal with Tories.
    She needs 20 or 30 Labour votes, that's enough to require an actual understanding, not less. Whether it's a "deal" I guess depends whether you think only Corbyn can make a deal.
    The wording I was objecting to was "a deal with Labour", which implies a deal with the Labour Party as an entity and, implicitly, with its leadership.

    I agree that there would probably need to be some form of understanding with Labour MPs to get the necessary votes - and I think 30 or so is the minimum - but that could be given by statements in the House, rather than in a signed document.

    Whatever the 'deal' is would need to be delivered quickly - presumably in the Act implementing the WA - because there's a good chance of either a GE or a new Tory PM later this year.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Responding to @another_richard from the last thread...

    What did people see in Dr Liam Fox?

    Best guess: his voice. Fox has a lovely sexy accent. He should seek out an alternative career in reading audiobooks of erotic fiction for randy old ladies.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,771

    It will pass if she does a deal with labour...
    She doesn't even need to do a deal; she just needs to make an offer that enough Labour MPs can accept.

    In fact, I think she'd have to adopt that approach because I doubt that Corbyn would ever do a deal with Tories.
    If I had to guess, I'd say the most likely outcome at present is that the WA passes with additional workers and environmental rights, and a permanent customs union for goods, with the backstop only applying to NI wrt. single market rules for goods and agriculture. Maybe the UK could get some extra wording in the political declaration that it'd be consulted on any future trade deals the EU made that involved its customs territory too.

    I'd expect about 90 Tory MPs to still vote against this, but perhaps 50 Labour MPs to come on board.

    That'd get her up to about 275 votes. She'd either need a lot of abstentions on both sides, or Corbyn to whip the WA for it to pass as otherwise she'd still have 355 votes or so against it.
    Far more than 90 Tory MPs will baulk at a permanent CU for goods. They might not all vote against, but many will abstain.
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 457

    I think the role of the EU in "ending the troubles" is overcooked.

    It was a function of the IRA realising they couldn't achieve a military victory, the USA finally closing down funding and support for them, and a sensible political compromise that offered something to all sides, from renaming the RUC, to allowing NI residents to carry either Irish or British passports, and retaining it within the UK until a majority of its residents decide otherwise.

    It was a battle of the heart and soul, not of technocracy. No doubt open borders for goods and trade made that easier, but the UK and Eire already have very open arrangements between each other anyway, and if the EU were being fully constructive they'd be much more flexible.

    The last four books I have read relate to the Troubles and the run up to the GFA.

    The EU just doesn't figure.
    The pitch doesn’t figure in most accounts of the FA Cup Final. Still essential though.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 26,286
    I do not believe there is any deal that Nadine Dorries would agree to.

    Her thought process is - essentially - "If the EU is agreeing to this, we must be being screwed over."

    And this is the fundamental problem that Mrs May has. There are 20 complete idiots in the ERG, who probably won't vote for anything. So, while time limiting the backstop - or allowing an independent body to adjudge whether the EU was acting in good faith in trying to implement a technological solution - would be enough for the DUP and 60-odd Conservative rebels, it probably still isn't enough.

    So... what next?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,931


    She needs 20 or 30 Labour votes, that's enough to require an actual understanding, not less. Whether it's a "deal" I guess depends whether you think only Corbyn can make a deal.

    Any Labour MP who aids and abets the delivery of a hard Tory Brexit will not only be ending their career, but will be ensuring their names get written in blood in the annals of the very worst traitors to the movement. And the judgment of the movement on those quisling fucks will be as nothing compared to the monstering that Labour voters will deliver unto them.

    It's not a thing any sane Labour MP with serious hopes of remaining such after the next election will seriously contemplate.
    You put these things rather more strongly than I do, but essentially I think you're correct. It takes hard work to alienate the entire centrist wing and the entire Corbynite wing at one fell swoop, but voting for a hard Tory Brexit would pull it off.
    You have to remember that Labour has many different types of supporters. Are the WWC in the North of England ( traditional labour, who voted overwhelmingly to leave) going to ditch their MPS for giving them their wishes. Not every Labour supporter is a member of the chattering class in Islington.
    Neither is every WWC Northerner a Leaver. Even in Leave voting areas most Labour voters were for Remain. Leavers voted Tory in these places.

    Indeed there is polling evidence that while prosperous Shire Tories are still firm for Brexit, it is the WWC Northerners who have shifted against Brexit.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 1,687


    You put these things rather more strongly than I do, but essentially I think you're correct. It takes hard work to alienate the entire centrist wing and the entire Corbynite wing at one fell swoop, but voting for a hard Tory Brexit would pull it off.

    Surely the point is that if they don't, we'll end up with a crash brexit. That's essentially where voting against is taking us.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 11,619


    She needs 20 or 30 Labour votes, that's enough to require an actual understanding, not less. Whether it's a "deal" I guess depends whether you think only Corbyn can make a deal.

    Any Labour MP who aids and abets the delivery of a hard Tory Brexit will not only be ending their career, but will be ensuring their names get written in blood in the annals of the very worst traitors to the movement. And the judgment of the movement on those quisling fucks will be as nothing compared to the monstering that Labour voters will deliver unto them.

    It's not a thing any sane Labour MP with serious hopes of remaining such after the next election will seriously contemplate.
    Can parliament vote for itself to have a secret ballot?
    The idea of Parliament sneaking itself a vote to unilaterally overturn the referendum result, totally anonymously, is both cowardly and absolutely disgusting.

    It's no surprise someone like you supports it.

    It's entirely in keeping with your contemptuous, pompous and conceited globalist fundamentalist absolutism, which exhibits a zeal even William Glenn would struggle to match.
    Um, we weren't talking about parliament overturning the referendum result, we were talking about giving cover to Labour MPs to vote for the Tory Brexit...
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 511
    brendan16 said:


    A fair analysis, but wounds are being reopened on a number of sides that were patched over (in part exacerbated by the GFA and EU withdrawal) , a sense of loss by Republicans(or even Loyalists) can quickly become a greivance....the rest is history - just because you think you cant win a military victory doesnt equate to giving up - we should be very concerned about how the DUP's hold on the process will be perceived - I for one fear real problems regarding the Union in the next 2-5 years as a result if TM's approach to GB, NI and BREXIT.

    The way the DUP have been allowed, nay encouraged, to speak as if they represent the whole of Northern Ireland, when they're far out on a limb compared to what NI wants (NI to remain in the EU, or near as dammit by a watertight legal backstop) is storing up vast gobs of grievance.

    The 360 degree catastrofuck of Brexit is probably seeding decades of grievance for us to fight and die over. The Brexit show trials are gonna be amazing.
    Apart from Lady Hermon however the DUP represent the entire NI parliamentary delegation to the UK parliament. Its the fault of Nationalists they have no actual representation in Westminster - as so many chose to vote for Sinn Fein instead of supporting the SDLP - who always took their seats. That is first past the post for you!
    It does leave me wondering whether an imposition of STV or AV in Northern Ireland's Parliamentary votes may assist in representing the rainbow of opinions in NI.....I am not sure it would help, but the DUP (aka the 1622 committee) sure as hell do not speak for many voices in NI
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,462


    She needs 20 or 30 Labour votes, that's enough to require an actual understanding, not less. Whether it's a "deal" I guess depends whether you think only Corbyn can make a deal.

    Any Labour MP who aids and abets the delivery of a hard Tory Brexit will not only be ending their career, but will be ensuring their names get written in blood in the annals of the very worst traitors to the movement. And the judgment of the movement on those quisling fucks will be as nothing compared to the monstering that Labour voters will deliver unto them.

    It's not a thing any sane Labour MP with serious hopes of remaining such after the next election will seriously contemplate.
    Can parliament vote for itself to have a secret ballot?
    The idea of Parliament sneaking itself a vote to unilaterally overturn the referendum result, totally anonymously, is both cowardly and absolutely disgusting.

    It's no surprise someone like you supports it.

    It's entirely in keeping with your contemptuous, pompous and conceited globalist fundamentalist absolutism, which exhibits a zeal even William Glenn would struggle to match.
    Um, we weren't talking about parliament overturning the referendum result, we were talking about giving cover to Labour MPs to vote for the Tory Brexit...
    We all know what you really meant.
  • felixfelix Posts: 8,889

    felix said:


    She needs 20 or 30 Labour votes, that's enough to require an actual understanding, not less. Whether it's a "deal" I guess depends whether you think only Corbyn can make a deal.

    Any Labour MP who aids and abets the delivery of a hard Tory Brexit will not only be ending their career, but will be ensuring their names get written in blood in the annals of the very worst traitors to the movement. And the judgment of the movement on those quisling fucks will be as nothing compared to the monstering that Labour voters will deliver unto them.

    It's not a thing any sane Labour MP with serious hopes of remaining such after the next election will seriously contemplate.
    At least that nunber of very sane Labour MPs see no future in a Corbyn led Labour party. They have nothing to lose and know it.
    This would make you a persona non grata in the every single wing of Labour, not just Corbynite. Vote for a hard Tory Brexit to spite Jeremy Corbyn if you like, but don't expect Chuka Umunna to invite you to any FBPE dinner parties afterwards.
    Nope. The WA is not hard Brexit and I believe and expect a softish Brexit in the end. You are simply a nihilist who wants chaos and disrution because you're miffed at the BVrexit result. You have been on the site in various guises promoting your nonsense and fool nobody with it.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 9,921
    I think when people mean a time limit they really need to specify what time.

    I could imagine the EU agreeing ten years, but some on the ERG side wanted 10 months.

    One is a backstop and the other isn't.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,771

    Deutsche:

    “The start of the German economy into 2019 has been a major disappointment so far.

    “The development of several key cyclical indicators is telling us that the German economy is drifting towards recession right now.”

    ouch.

    The possibility of a No Deal Brexit and disruption to a key market can't be helping that "major disappointment".
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,462

    It will pass if she does a deal with labour...
    She doesn't even need to do a deal; she just needs to make an offer that enough Labour MPs can accept.

    In fact, I think she'd have to adopt that approach because I doubt that Corbyn would ever do a deal with Tories.
    If I had to guess, I'd say the most likely outcome at present is that the WA passes with additional workers and environmental rights, and a permanent customs union for goods, with the backstop only applying to NI wrt. single market rules for goods and agriculture. Maybe the UK could get some extra wording in the political declaration that it'd be consulted on any future trade deals the EU made that involved its customs territory too.

    I'd expect about 90 Tory MPs to still vote against this, but perhaps 50 Labour MPs to come on board.

    That'd get her up to about 275 votes. She'd either need a lot of abstentions on both sides, or Corbyn to whip the WA for it to pass as otherwise she'd still have 355 votes or so against it.
    Far more than 90 Tory MPs will baulk at a permanent CU for goods. They might not all vote against, but many will abstain.
    Perhaps. But if it's very late doors and that's the only thing on the table I expect some to vote for it, and some of the New Bastards will come back on board too.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,771
    Streeter said:

    I think the role of the EU in "ending the troubles" is overcooked.

    It was a function of the IRA realising they couldn't achieve a military victory, the USA finally closing down funding and support for them, and a sensible political compromise that offered something to all sides, from renaming the RUC, to allowing NI residents to carry either Irish or British passports, and retaining it within the UK until a majority of its residents decide otherwise.

    It was a battle of the heart and soul, not of technocracy. No doubt open borders for goods and trade made that easier, but the UK and Eire already have very open arrangements between each other anyway, and if the EU were being fully constructive they'd be much more flexible.

    The last four books I have read relate to the Troubles and the run up to the GFA.

    The EU just doesn't figure.
    The pitch doesn’t figure in most accounts of the FA Cup Final. Still essential though.
    Whatever.....

  • She needs 20 or 30 Labour votes, that's enough to require an actual understanding, not less. Whether it's a "deal" I guess depends whether you think only Corbyn can make a deal.

    Any Labour MP who aids and abets the delivery of a hard Tory Brexit will not only be ending their career, but will be ensuring their names get written in blood in the annals of the very worst traitors to the movement. And the judgment of the movement on those quisling fucks will be as nothing compared to the monstering that Labour voters will deliver unto them.

    It's not a thing any sane Labour MP with serious hopes of remaining such after the next election will seriously contemplate.
    You put these things rather more strongly than I do, but essentially I think you're correct. It takes hard work to alienate the entire centrist wing and the entire Corbynite wing at one fell swoop, but voting for a hard Tory Brexit would pull it off.
    You have to remember that Labour has many different types of supporters. Are the WWC in the North of England ( traditional labour, who voted overwhelmingly to leave) going to ditch their MPS for giving them their wishes. Not every Labour supporter is a member of the chattering class in Islington.
    NickP is probably more aware than most of the different types of Labour supporter.

    Such polling I have seen suggests that Labour Leave voters don't generally feel as strongly about Brexit as their Tory counterparts, but I'm not a member and haven't spent most of my life working for them, so I'd defer on this matter to anyone who has.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,462
    rcs1000 said:

    I do not believe there is any deal that Nadine Dorries would agree to.

    Her thought process is - essentially - "If the EU is agreeing to this, we must be being screwed over."

    And this is the fundamental problem that Mrs May has. There are 20 complete idiots in the ERG, who probably won't vote for anything. So, while time limiting the backstop - or allowing an independent body to adjudge whether the EU was acting in good faith in trying to implement a technological solution - would be enough for the DUP and 60-odd Conservative rebels, it probably still isn't enough.

    So... what next?
    To be fair, some of the EU's rhetoric over the backstop in the past two weeks has made even me question my previous support for the WA.

    They've dismissed out of hand every possible alternative to the NI backstop, except a full permanent customs union, which they seem remarkably keen on, and I'm not convinced they're negotiating in good faith.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,462

    I think the role of the EU in "ending the troubles" is overcooked.

    It was a function of the IRA realising they couldn't achieve a military victory, the USA finally closing down funding and support for them, and a sensible political compromise that offered something to all sides, from renaming the RUC, to allowing NI residents to carry either Irish or British passports, and retaining it within the UK until a majority of its residents decide otherwise.

    It was a battle of the heart and soul, not of technocracy. No doubt open borders for goods and trade made that easier, but the UK and Eire already have very open arrangements between each other anyway, and if the EU were being fully constructive they'd be much more flexible.

    The last four books I have read relate to the Troubles and the run up to the GFA.

    The EU just doesn't figure.
    Interesting.

    Varakhar is dancing with the devil. The "price" the EU will exact for their "support" is Eire giving in to QMV on federalised tax regulation, and it's a cheque they can't wait to cash in.
  • A fine portrait by your daughter-in-law Mike ... clearly she has an outstanding talent (your daughter-in-law that is, not the subject!)

    O/T with apols, but I've just noticed a new betting market offered by smarkets, based on Labour's share of the vote at the next GE (odds are also available for other parties), which at first glance appears to offer an almost guaranteed return by selecting two tranches of support.
    For 20%-29% they go 6.6
    For 30-39% they go 2.14
    Therefore, by staking 24.49% on the lower band and the remaining 75.51% on the upper band, a 60.4% profit is achieved, net of their 2% commission, should either band prove successful. EXCEPT for the fact that there's just an itsy, bitsy snag. Should Labour's share of the vote fall in the 1% band between 29.01%-29.99% range, you would then lose your dough.
    Clever but crafty marketing by smarkets it would appear. Still they appear to be alone in coming up with innovative markets for the next GE, which is no bad thing considering that the bookmaking fraternity consider there is a 30% likelihood of this taking place during 2019.

    Did Smarkets really intend a gap in their markets like that? Surely their upside is at 40+
    I feel absolutely sure Smarket's 1% gap between each band is intentional ... representing a very useful part of their *cough* profit margin and doubtless one explanation as to how they are able to boast about 2% commission rates, when comparing themselves with Betfair's much higher 5% rate.
  • It will pass if she does a deal with labour...
    She doesn't even need to do a deal; she just needs to make an offer that enough Labour MPs can accept.

    In fact, I think she'd have to adopt that approach because I doubt that Corbyn would ever do a deal with Tories.
    If I had to guess, I'd say the most likely outcome at present is that the WA passes with additional workers and environmental rights, and a permanent customs union for goods, with the backstop only applying to NI wrt. single market rules for goods and agriculture. Maybe the UK could get some extra wording in the political declaration that it'd be consulted on any future trade deals the EU made that involved its customs territory too.

    I'd expect about 90 Tory MPs to still vote against this, but perhaps 50 Labour MPs to come on board.

    That'd get her up to about 275 votes. She'd either need a lot of abstentions on both sides, or Corbyn to whip the WA for it to pass as otherwise she'd still have 355 votes or so against it.
    Far more than 90 Tory MPs will baulk at a permanent CU for goods. They might not all vote against, but many will abstain.
    A CU and no SM is an absurdist compromise that is the worst of all worlds.

    It directly contravenes what May promised during her Lancaster House speech
    It directly contradicts the Tory manifesto
    It directly contradicts her instructions from Parliament
    It is diametrically opposed to what most Tory leavers want
    It doesn't obviate the need for a backstop
    It doesn't meet Labour's six tests.

    To whom, exactly, is such a ridiculous "compromise" meant to appeal?
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    _Anazina_ said:

    Macron has had a bounce since the new year. The issue he faces is that he is promising lots of things to lots of people from his debat nationale. He is raising expectations looking at what is on his plate he can only disappoint.
    The PB Tory Leavers are weirdly obsessed with Macron – to the extent that they simply cannot see what is staring them in the face.

    The Yellow Bellies (or whatever they are called) have been a massive boost for Macca, who can now present himself as a sensible, pro-business moderate in the face of a bunch of crackpot Brexity nutters.

    His approvals are very strong given that France has a run-off system. Looks a strong bet for re-election to me, as much as the PB Tory Leavers fantasise otherwise.
    Its no more or less unusual to 'obsess' about the Head of State of our nearest neighbour (bar the Irish) than our media and chatterati obsessing about every other tweet of the head of state of a country over 4,000 miles away!

    Macron has got a modest boost because he bribed sections of the electorate by cutting taxes for pensioners and raising the minimum wage. Certainly noble things - but not exactly taking those radical steps to reform France.

    He was celebrated on his election as some centrist, reforming saviour of Europe - not so more as even on recent polls he has a disapproval rating of around 70%.

    Perhaps he is 'pro business' - but it seems to be more 'big' business. And its of course far too easy to label the yellow vest protestors as 'crackpot Brexity nutters' - it avoids having to deal with some of the genuine concerns they have. I wasn't aware they were protesting in favour of Brexit?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 9,921

    A fine portrait by your daughter-in-law Mike ... clearly she has an outstanding talent (your daughter-in-law that is, not the subject!)

    O/T with apols, but I've just noticed a new betting market offered by smarkets, based on Labour's share of the vote at the next GE (odds are also available for other parties), which at first glance appears to offer an almost guaranteed return by selecting two tranches of support.
    For 20%-29% they go 6.6
    For 30-39% they go 2.14
    Therefore, by staking 24.49% on the lower band and the remaining 75.51% on the upper band, a 60.4% profit is achieved, net of their 2% commission, should either band prove successful. EXCEPT for the fact that there's just an itsy, bitsy snag. Should Labour's share of the vote fall in the 1% band between 29.01%-29.99% range, you would then lose your dough.
    Clever but crafty marketing by smarkets it would appear. Still they appear to be alone in coming up with innovative markets for the next GE, which is no bad thing considering that the bookmaking fraternity consider there is a 30% likelihood of this taking place during 2019.

    Did Smarkets really intend a gap in their markets like that? Surely their upside is at 40+
    I feel absolutely sure Smarket's 1% gap between each band is intentional ... representing a very useful part of their *cough* profit margin and doubtless one explanation as to how they are able to boast about 2% commission rates, when comparing themselves with Betfair's much higher 5% rate.
    BF have introduced their three tiers, meaning I can drop my commission rate to 2% as long as I give up my "free spins" and best rates guarantee on horse races (which I never bet on). Pretty easy choice for me...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,060
    brendan16 said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Macron has had a bounce since the new year. The issue he faces is that he is promising lots of things to lots of people from his debat nationale. He is raising expectations looking at what is on his plate he can only disappoint.
    The PB Tory Leavers are weirdly obsessed with Macron – to the extent that they simply cannot see what is staring them in the face.

    The Yellow Bellies (or whatever they are called) have been a massive boost for Macca, who can now present himself as a sensible, pro-business moderate in the face of a bunch of crackpot Brexity nutters.

    His approvals are very strong given that France has a run-off system. Looks a strong bet for re-election to me, as much as the PB Tory Leavers fantasise otherwise.
    Its no more or less unusual to 'obsess' about the Head of State of our nearest neighbour (bar the Irish) than our media and chatterati obsessing about every other tweet of the head of state of a country over 4,000 miles away!

    Macron has got a modest boost because he bribed sections of the electorate by cutting taxes for pensioners and raising the minimum wage. Certainly noble things - but not exactly taking those radical steps to reform France.

    He was celebrated on his election as some centrist, reforming saviour of Europe - not so more as even on recent polls he has a disapproval rating of around 70%.

    Perhaps he is 'pro business' - but it seems to be more 'big' business. And its of course far too easy to label the yellow vest protestors as 'crackpot Brexity nutters' - it avoids having to deal with some of the genuine concerns they have. I wasn't aware they were protesting in favour of Brexit?
    His overweening arrogance has made him ridiculous in the eyes of many French voters.
This discussion has been closed.