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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The resilient PM ploughs on to March 29th and her running down

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    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    SeanT said:

    Nigelb said:

    SeanT said:

    Nigelb said:

    SeanT said:

    Good afternoon, my fellow sinners.

    We are all in the gutter, but Leavers are looking at the gutter.
    Alastair, just stop. Go home. Have a cup of tea. Your stream of tweets over the last two or three days have just been embarrassing and mortifying - for you. Last night you literally called yourself "one of society's dynamos". Today you are gleefully loathing millions of your fellow citizens, apparently because they are poorer than you.

    This is just sad. You are clearly a decent chap, but maybe experiencing some turmoil? Stop it now. Take a break. Come back refreshed.

    If I was spitting out comments like yours, I would hope a kindly PB-er would take me aside, and give me the same advice.
    "If I was spitting out comments like yours..."

    Do you genuinely erase from your memory all those time you have been, shall we say, less than temperate?

    Never mind 'offer you advice', kindly PB-ers know to steer well clear. Alastair is a paragon of moderation in comparison.
    More to the point, in a Tusk like piece of undiplomacy, you have alienated every PB pedant.

    'If I were...'
    Don't be too harsh on him - he normally has an editor to sort such thing out. :wink:
    To this day I still get "affect" and "effect" mixed up. Quite often. There should be a long German term to describe grammatical/linguistic errors that stay with you over life, despite your best efforts.

    The blurring of was/were is more forgivable, I think. "Were", though theoretically correcter and righter, sometimes sounds too posh in everyday dialogue with people of less-than-standout intelligence, e.g. *Topping* of PB.
    I could care less... (sic)

    But 'was' represented obvious trolling of the resident pedants.
    :smile:


    ...arguably.


    As for affect/effect, remembering 'effective' is an effective remedy.
    Ta. I'll try. But I doubt it will have an.... effect?

    Can't remember if we discussed this on PB, but on Twitter the other day I learned that the phrase "you've got another thing coming" is actually and rightly "you've got another think coming". I had no idea: for some reason, since I was a kid, I have always read the idiom and understood it as "thing" (even though it makes no sense that way, on analysis).
    The effects of Cornwall, innit?
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    King Cole, I'm not sure an Irish referendum on rejoining the UK would be a wise move.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,304

    SeanT said:

    algarkirk said:



    And it's way off the A Roads you need to be in Lincolnshire, and without any sense of rush. It is huge with amazing variety, history, buildings and space. Lots of sky. Takes your mind off Brexit.

    Driving north from South East London via the M11, A14 and A1, the Lincolnshire section is probably the bleakest and most unlovely part of the journey. But it does have my favourite roadsign of the entire drive, indicating the turnoff for the Honeypot Lane Industrial Estate. I can't quite articulate why, but seeing this sign always makes my day.
    while staying in the area we decided to have a day trip into Grantham. It looked so awful we never even parked. went to Stamford instead which was a pleasant little place.
    I think you have to get well off the (admittedly quite desolate) main roads in Lincolnshire. There are some beautiful corners, lovely villages, rambling castles .... and super-spooky towers.

    e.g. this place, which featured in a Tom Knox thriller, is one of the only places I have been where I have ever wondered about the possible presence of ghosts, or some kind of horrible supernatural menace. There are literally bones in the brickwork, and weird medieval apotropaic graffiti (marks to ward off evil) all over the walls.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temple_Bruer_Preceptory

    It didn't help that the cold dank grey winter day I was there, as I was exploring, in the dying light, I heard the most fiendish inhuman wailing outside: it literally made my flesh creep and my heart race. When I shiveringly opened the door, I saw that they were exercising the local pack of foxhounds. The howl they make, if you don't know what is making it, is quite horrifying.
    The local hunt keeps its foxhounds about half a mile away, over the hill. Not normally heard until there is some north in the wind. But on those days then, yes, even if you know what is making it, is still a sound that triggers primeval fears.....
    No it doesn't. The local bloodhounds do, though.

    https://cranwellbloodhounds.co.uk/meet-the-hounds
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    Because Millwall is over its quota?
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,225
    RobD said:

    But it might solve the impasse.

    More than that, it could be the ONLY method by which the impasse can (at least potentially) be resolved in the required timeframe.

    I think, if she cannot get her deal through, the case (from her viewpoint) for a GE is compelling.

    I think she will go for it. I think it's her Backstop.
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    JonWC said:

    JonWC said:

    All this praise for Lincolnshire feels like I've stumbled into a parallel universe.

    Bloody bizarre, Lincolnshire is the armpit of the UK.

    Mind you PB is frequented by people who think pineapple is an acceptable topping on pizza.
    I have wondered if there is any part of the UK you approve of, but fortunately am not easily offended.
    I like Yorkshire, I like London, I love Cambridge, I love Edinburgh.
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    I see the NIESR have joined the EY Item Club in forecasting that a no deal Brexit will not prevent ongoing increases in GDP, however limited. Experts eh!
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,304
    SeanT said:

    TOPPING said:

    SeanT said:

    TOPPING said:

    SeanT said:

    algarkirk said:



    And it's way off the A Roads you need to be in Lincolnshire, and without any sense of rush. It is huge with amazing variety, history, buildings and space. Lots of sky. Takes your mind off Brexit.

    Driving north from South East London via the M11, A14 and A1, the Lincolnshire section is probably the bleakest and most unlovely part of the journey. But it does have my favourite roadsign of the entire drive, indicating the turnoff for the Honeypot Lane Industrial Estate. I can't quite articulate why, but seeing this sign always makes my day.
    while staying in the area we decided to have a day trip into Grantham. It looked so awful we never even parked. went to Stamford instead which was a pleasant little place.
    I think you have to get well off the (admittedly quite desolate) main roads in Lincolnshire. There are some beautiful corners, lovely villages, rambling castles .... and super-spooky towers.

    e.g. this place, which featured in a Tom Knox thriller, is one of the only places I have been where I have ever wondered about the possible presence of ghosts, or some kind of horrible supernatural menace. There are literally bones in the brickwork, and weird medieval apotropaic graffiti (marks to ward off evil) all over the walls.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temple_Bruer_Preceptory

    It didn't help that the cold dank grey winter day I was there, as I was exploring, in the dying light, I heard the most fiendish inhuman wailing outside: it literally made my flesh creep and my heart race. When I shiveringly opened the door, I saw that they were exercising the local pack of foxhounds. The howl they make, if you don't know what is making it, is quite horrifying.
    Bloodhounds, dolt.
    Are you OK? You seem quite irritable and dyspeptic, old man. In the spirit of kindness that I showed to Alastair you should know that irritability is a significant early symptom of Alzheimers. And it's not like you lack the other symptoms, either.

    https://www.healthline.com/health-news/first-symptoms-of-alzheimers-may-be-depression-irritability-011415#1
    They were not foxhounds, they were bloodhounds. Why I waste my time trying to educate you goodness only knows.
    I am happy to relieve you of your bizarre vocation to "educate me", as you wrestle with your increasing cognitive deficit. Deal?
    I think you would be a better person if you were a tadge less unintelligent.
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    Mr. Eagles, *raises an eyebrow*

    You like Yorkshire, and love Cambridge?

    And you call yourself a Yorkshireman?

    Speaking of Yorkshiremen, been re-watching I, Claudius. Brian Blessed and Patrick Stewart, the former without a beard, the latter with hair, are rather good.
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    I see the NIESR have joined the EY Item Club in forecasting that a no deal Brexit will not prevent ongoing increases in GDP, however limited. Experts eh!

    Only if the EU and government do lots to mitigate it.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850
    The first time I ever went to a West Ham football match, I saw spray-painted on the entrance gate "Hitler was Right. Gas the Jews."
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,304

    I see the NIESR have joined the EY Item Club in forecasting that a no deal Brexit will not prevent ongoing increases in GDP, however limited. Experts eh!

    NIESR were the originators of the incendiary (to those who didn't understand it, ie @SeanT for example) £6,200 per household diminution in wealth by whenever it was. No one has ever said GDP would shrink.
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    I rather like Jean-Claude Juncker. I appreciate that this is a minority position.

    https://twitter.com/jujikucz/status/1093167948276137986
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    Scott_P said:
    Typical EU attitude to democracy. Isn't he supposed to represent all citizens of the EU, in the same way that an MP is supposed to represent all constituents?
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    Mr. Eagles, *raises an eyebrow*

    You like Yorkshire, and love Cambridge?

    And you call yourself a Yorkshireman?

    Speaking of Yorkshiremen, been re-watching I, Claudius. Brian Blessed and Patrick Stewart, the former without a beard, the latter with hair, are rather good.

    I had the best years of my life in Cambridge.

    Barnsley stops Yorkshire from being perfect.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,124
    kinabalu said:

    RobD said:

    But it might solve the impasse.

    More than that, it could be the ONLY method by which the impasse can (at least potentially) be resolved in the required timeframe.

    I think, if she cannot get her deal through, the case (from her viewpoint) for a GE is compelling.

    I think she will go for it. I think it's her Backstop.
    Well, as someone who is not a big fan of the Tories, I would relish the prospect of them not so much fighting an election as fighting one another during an election campaign - as the country dangles over an abyss of their creation.

    I see very little prospect of them signing up to a statement that "Theresa May is the leader of the Conservative Party" during the campaign.
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    I rather like Jean-Claude Juncker. I appreciate that this is a minority position.

    https://twitter.com/jujikucz/status/1093167948276137986

    I am not sure doing your 3rd rate stand-up comic routine is quite the right look as both the UK and the EU head rapidly towards a no-deal separation.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,304
    SeanT said:

    TOPPING said:

    SeanT said:

    TOPPING said:

    SeanT said:

    TOPPING said:

    SeanT said:

    algarkirk said:



    And it's way off the A Roads you need to be in Lincolnshire, and without any sense of rush. It is huge with amazing variety, history, buildings and space. Lots of sky. Takes your mind off Brexit.

    Driving north from South East London via the M11, A14 and A1, the Lincolnshire section is probably the bleakest and most unlovely part of the journey. But it does have my favourite roadsign of the entire drive, indicating the turnoff for the Honeypot Lane Industrial Estate. I can't quite articulate why, but seeing this sign always makes my day.
    while staying in the area we decided to have a day trip into Grantham. It looked so awful we never even parked. went to Stamford instead which was a pleasant little place.
    I think you have to get well off the (admittedly quite desolate) main roads in Lincolnshire. There are some beautiful corners, lovely villages, rambling castles .... and super-spooky towers.

    e.g. this place, which featured in a Tom Knox thriller, is one of the only places I have been where I have ever wondered about the possible presence of ghosts, or some kind of horrible supernatural menace. There are literally bones in the brickwork, and weird medieval apotropaic graffiti (marks to ward off evil) all over the walls.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temple_Bruer_Preceptory

    It didn't help that the cold dank grey winter day I was there, as I was exploring, in the dying light, I heard the most fiendish inhuman wailing outside: it literally made my flesh creep and my heart race. When I shiveringly opened the door, I saw that they were exercising the local pack of foxhounds. The howl they make, if you don't know what is making it, is quite horrifying.
    Bloodhounds, dolt.
    Are you OK? You seem quite irritable and dyspeptic, old man. In the spirit of kindness that I showed to Alastair you should know that irritability is a significant early symptom of Alzheimers. And it's not like you lack the other symptoms, either.

    https://www.healthline.com/health-news/first-symptoms-of-alzheimers-may-be-depression-irritability-011415#1
    They were not foxhounds, they were bloodhounds. Why I waste my time trying to educate you goodness only knows.
    I am happy to relieve you of your bizarre vocation to "educate me", as you wrestle with your increasing cognitive deficit. Deal?
    I think you would be a better person if you were a tadge less unintelligent.
    Er, QED.
    Zing
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    TOPPING said:

    I see the NIESR have joined the EY Item Club in forecasting that a no deal Brexit will not prevent ongoing increases in GDP, however limited. Experts eh!

    NIESR were the originators of the incendiary (to those who didn't understand it, ie @SeanT for example) £6,200 per household diminution in wealth by whenever it was. No one has ever said GDP would shrink.
    Sorry, I must have misunderstood. I thought I'd read on here about economic chaos and catastrophe if we left with no deal. It's encouraging that no has ever said GDP will shrink in such event.
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    Chris said:

    No Deal it is then.

    And on your head be it, Juncker......
    Can you not see that the man is about to prostrate himself before Theresa May and beg to be allowed to renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement? The signs are all there.
    The signs are all there that from the start they never intended to negotiate in good faith, their primary purpose being to contrive an outcome where UK politicians were emboldened to reverse the decision taken by the people who elect them. That will probably still be the eventual outcome.

    For any meaningful negotiations to happen with the prospect of the EU negotiating in good faith, it first requires Brexit to be accepted by all parties as a done deal. That requires further talks on any long term agreement to be shelved and convened to recommence shortly after 29th March 2019. I don't though think that our PM has the guts to try to do that.
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    Scott_P said:
    The problem is that in the UK the direct hit will be against the commission by many in the court of public opinion sadly increasing no deal

    It was simply unnecessary and ill judged.
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870

    algarkirk said:



    And it's way off the A Roads you need to be in Lincolnshire, and without any sense of rush. It is huge with amazing variety, history, buildings and space. Lots of sky. Takes your mind off Brexit.

    Driving north from South East London via the M11, A14 and A1, the Lincolnshire section is probably the bleakest and most unlovely part of the journey. But it does have my favourite roadsign of the entire drive, indicating the turnoff for the Honeypot Lane Industrial Estate. I can't quite articulate why, but seeing this sign always makes my day.
    while staying in the area we decided to have a day trip into Grantham. It looked so awful we never even parked. went to Stamford instead which was a pleasant little place.
    Stamford is honorary Rutland.
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    Mr. WC, William Marshal won a mighty battle for England against the French in Lincoln. Huzzah!

    You say William Marshal, I say Guillaume le Maréchal, let's call the whole thing off.
    So how is Marshal Wade said in Scotland?

    Maréchal Wade?
    Not as big a **** as Cumberland is the traditional form I believe.
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    murali_s said:

    Donald Tusk = Spot on!

    Brexiteers = Xenophobes / little Englanders / thickos (all three cohorts share one thing - no plan worth the paper it's written on).

    "Nothing has changed" - we are still heading for a calamitous Tory hard Brexit. Strap yourselves in suckers!

    And you think those comments add to the debate ?
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,124

    Tusk's comments today reveal the EU's insufferable arrogance, he even thinks he decides who goes to hell now. I suspect that quietly there will be many people of faith who find it revolting that he should such language about politicians he disagrees with.

    Never mind what people of faith may think quietly.

    Tusk should prepare himself to be skewered very loudly by a thunderbolt from the almighty, and then consigned to whatever circles of hell are reserved for foreigners.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,897
    kinabalu said:

    RobD said:

    But it might solve the impasse.

    More than that, it could be the ONLY method by which the impasse can (at least potentially) be resolved in the required timeframe.

    I think, if she cannot get her deal through, the case (from her viewpoint) for a GE is compelling.

    I think she will go for it. I think it's her Backstop.
    I still don’t see how she gets an election past the Cabinet, let alone the wider body of her backbenchers - who are united against her deal but for opposing reasons.

    Would Anna Soubry, Jacob R-M and 648 other candidates all be expected to back the deal, in order to stand as Conservatives? The deal that Parliament has already declared to be a dodo.
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    murali_s said:

    Donald Tusk = Spot on!

    Brexiteers = Xenophobes / little Englanders / thickos (all three cohorts share one thing - no plan worth the paper it's written on).

    "Nothing has changed" - we are still heading for a calamitous Tory hard Brexit. Strap yourselves in suckers!

    And you think those comments add to the debate ?
    What debate? This place is like Northern France in WW1 - two trenches hurling ammo at each other, no movement. Just pointless skirmish after pointless skirmsh...
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    kinabalu said:

    I can not foresee a truce being sought any time soon. If the UK is going to fold it will be before we wait. Once we are out it will both be too late and MPs will have chosen to go for it. It will take something dramatic to enforce a u-turn.

    The EU have the advantage (in addition to all the other advantages they have) of a better clock. They do not have to decide whether to fold until after we have decided whether we are going to fold. We get first dibs on folding. It will thus take nerves of steel not to. Do we have nerves of steel? Are we, Britain, made of the Right Stuff?

    Pose this question in pubs and clubs all around the nation and (if sufficient drinks have been consumed) there will be but one resounding response -

    DAMN RIGHT WE ARE!
    That's quite right.

    Ultimately for the vast majority of people I think if they were afraid of leaving without a deal they'd have voted Remain. I would have. You can't ever guarantee a deal unless you cave and give the other side everything they want and make no demands.

    The fact is like it or not the public voted to Leave and the public isn't afraid.
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    kinabalu said:

    RobD said:

    But it might solve the impasse.

    More than that, it could be the ONLY method by which the impasse can (at least potentially) be resolved in the required timeframe.

    I think, if she cannot get her deal through, the case (from her viewpoint) for a GE is compelling.

    I think she will go for it. I think it's her Backstop.
    Another day, another GE forecast.

    TM and Corbyn are not in a position to campaign for a GE. Both have seriously divided parties and impossible manifesto positions
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    edited February 2019

    murali_s said:

    Donald Tusk = Spot on!

    Brexiteers = Xenophobes / little Englanders / thickos (all three cohorts share one thing - no plan worth the paper it's written on).

    "Nothing has changed" - we are still heading for a calamitous Tory hard Brexit. Strap yourselves in suckers!

    And you think those comments add to the debate ?
    What debate? This place is like Northern France in WW1 - two trenches hurling ammo at each other, no movement. Just pointless skirmish after pointless skirmsh...
    If you want you can add my friends with their breathless pro-remain/pro-Corbyn propaganda belted out on Facebook thrice daily :)
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,304

    TOPPING said:

    I see the NIESR have joined the EY Item Club in forecasting that a no deal Brexit will not prevent ongoing increases in GDP, however limited. Experts eh!

    NIESR were the originators of the incendiary (to those who didn't understand it, ie @SeanT for example) £6,200 per household diminution in wealth by whenever it was. No one has ever said GDP would shrink.
    Sorry, I must have misunderstood. I thought I'd read on here about economic chaos and catastrophe if we left with no deal. It's encouraging that no has ever said GDP will shrink in such event.
    You are eliding reduced growth and recession and depression. NIESR and EY Item Club are talking about reduced growth vs an alternative scenario.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,205
    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Indeed so. Much of investment banking is not and never was profitable. The tax revenues were froth and not sustainable. And this is something that is routinely ignored by many of those who think that London earns its money, independent of the rest of the country and is simply a source of funds rather than also a drain on the country's resources.

    There is also the opportunity cost of having so much talent sucked into the City as opposed to other industries/sectors.


    I am not often accused of being too kind about investment banking. I spent decades investigating and pursuing its crooks. If anything, I am far too cynical.

    "Tax on business" said Buffett about IB. Which it is.

    Have bolded the sentence above because it is IMO one of the very biggest negatives of having a bloated financial sector.

    A lot of IB is a con. It pretends to be risk-taking and operating in an ultra free market. In fact the risks are to others and there is more cartel than competition. The sector is actually cossetted and inefficient and MASSIVELY over-remunerated, although if you work there it is important, to preserve self-esteem, to kid yourself otherwise.

    "I made £20m for the bank last year so I deserve a £1m bonus. That's still £19m for the bank, right?"

    Mmm, except that -

    - Anybody bright and robust could have done it with the right training.
    - You have used the bank's balance sheet.
    - And been supported by all of the bank's middle and back office, staff and IT.
    - You already have a big salary.
    - If you had lost money there would be no negative bonus.

    Joke, it really is. I benefited but it bugged me then and it still bugs me now.
    I don't disagree.

    I'd be interested to know where you worked, if you feel able to tell me. Privately, by VM if necessary. I'm sure there are tales we could share......
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    NEW THREAD

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    Would it be possible to bet that over the 4 quarters after Brexit the UK grows faster than any other European G7 nation?

    It's looking increasingly likely. Even in a no deal scenario.
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Having been obliged to take a home maintenance-related half-day off work, I have recently returned from a little walk down to the new M&S food shop, which opened today.

    It's brilliant, indeed quite possibly the most exciting thing to have happened around here at least since King James I owned a place in town, if not since we were last pillaged by the Vikings. Moreover, whilst I neglected to examine the origin of the fresh fruit, most of the vegetables at least came either from within the UK or from Latin America. Thus the local well-heeled middle classes (who, despite voting in increasing numbers for the Lib Dems recently, will all have ceased to care about Brexit through sheer excitement over this place by the end of next week at the latest) are highly unlikely to perish of vitamin deficiencies by Easter, regardless of the behaviour of the politicians.

    The Aldi next door to it opens in a fortnight. Terrible news for the local Tesco Extra, wonderful for everybody else.
    SeanT said:

    I am determined to start work at 4, tho.

    4

    Yes, 4. Definitely.

    4

    Now, is it really worth the bother?
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,124
    I think it's worth noting that despite the sound and fury Mr Tusk's comments have unleashed in the Virtual Bubble, there could scarcely have been a smaller change in either the betting markets or the financial markets.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,990
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    TOPPING said:

    SeanT said:

    algarkirk said:



    And it's way off the A Roads you need to be in Lincolnshire, and without any sense of rush. It is huge with amazing variety, history, buildings and space. Lots of sky. Takes your mind off Brexit.

    Driving north from South East London via the M11, A14 and A1, the Lincolnshire section is probably the bleakest and most unlovely part of the journey. But it does have my favourite roadsign of the entire drive, indicating the turnoff for the Honeypot Lane Industrial Estate. I can't quite articulate why, but seeing this sign always makes my day.
    while staying in the area we decided to have a day trip into Grantham. It looked so awful we never even parked. went to Stamford instead which was a pleasant little place.
    I thinkringly opened the door, I saw that they were exercising the local pack of foxhounds. The howl they make, if you don't know what is making it, is quite horrifying.
    Bloodhounds, dolt.
    Are you OK? You seem quite irritable and dyspeptic, old man. In the spirit of kindness that I showed to Alastair you should know that irritability is a significant early symptom of Alzheimers. And it's not like you lack the other symptoms, either.

    https://www.healthline.com/health-news/first-symptoms-of-alzheimers-may-be-depression-irritability-011415#1
    You're not happy, are you Mr T? Find a better bottle of wine and cheer yourself up.
    I'm actually in a very buoyant mood. New book's a killer, got some TV deals for Tremayne up and running. I have a suntan from Vietnam and I'm off to Nepal and then the desert state of the USA, for the Times, in a couple of weeks. And my wife is 23. Today is a day when I feel unjustifiably lucky.

    Hence my uncharacteristic niceness, all day, perhaps.

    What I AM doing is procrastinating horribly, to avoid a tedious edit (as I said below). PB is good for procrastinators like me.... and, ah, pensioners with nowt to do?

    I am determined to start work at 4, tho.

    4

    Yes, 4. Definitely.

    4
    ah, pensioners with nowt to do?
    I'm so busy these days I wonder I had the time to go to work.

    Actually that's not true. I've slowed down a bit lately. However I've spent the past couple of hours determining which Summer Sundays I'm prepared to devote to assisting with our local Museum.
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    murali_s said:

    Donald Tusk = Spot on!

    Brexiteers = Xenophobes / little Englanders / thickos (all three cohorts share one thing - no plan worth the paper it's written on).

    "Nothing has changed" - we are still heading for a calamitous Tory hard Brexit. Strap yourselves in suckers!

    And you think those comments add to the debate ?
    What debate? This place is like Northern France in WW1 - two trenches hurling ammo at each other, no movement. Just pointless skirmish after pointless skirmsh...
    And it needs dialling down

    And no - it does not compare with the death and destruction of WW1
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    Cyclefree said:

    Tusk is right, though, however tactless he may have been in spelling it out.

    It is embarrassing watching May turn up to "negotiate" something she agreed to a few weeks ago when any likely result of such "negotiations" will be another defeat in Parliament.

    The Leavers have had no realistic or realisable plan.

    I was prepared to give them the benefit of the doubt, if they had a plan.

    But they don't. And are now blaming everyone else for their own failure.

    That I cannot forgive.

    The result will almost certainly be a disastrously chaotic exit with who knows what economic, political and social consequences, long-term damage to Britain's reputation as a stable, competent polity, harm to other European countries, a Corbyn government and the likely destruction of the Tory party (which is a shame for those decent Tories - both MPs and voters - out there, if not for anyone else).

    And all this despite having two options which would help us climb out of this mess - revocation of Article 50 or a further referendum to decide what we want to do now, in light of the facts as they are now, in the real world, not what people thought prior to 23 June 2016, let alone the facts inside some peoples' heads.

    When you're drowning in an icy lake you take the stick proffered to you, no matter how covered in shit it may be.

    +1
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    kinabalu said:

    RobD said:

    But it might solve the impasse.

    More than that, it could be the ONLY method by which the impasse can (at least potentially) be resolved in the required timeframe.

    I think, if she cannot get her deal through, the case (from her viewpoint) for a GE is compelling.

    I think she will go for it. I think it's her Backstop.
    Another day, another GE forecast.

    TM and Corbyn are not in a position to campaign for a GE. Both have seriously divided parties and impossible manifesto positions
    It seems you haven't noticed the little "clarification" posted for no apparent reason on Conservativehome over the last week where the rules as to when a sitting MP could be de-selected were set out in very bleak terms.

    If "No Deal" stumbles then there will have to be a General Election. I would imagine that not supporting attempts to take No Deal off the table will be a three line whip and probably even a Vote of Confidence. We ARE leaving on 29 March although it might not be effective until say 30 June.
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    murali_s said:

    Donald Tusk = Spot on!

    Brexiteers = Xenophobes / little Englanders / thickos (all three cohorts share one thing - no plan worth the paper it's written on).

    "Nothing has changed" - we are still heading for a calamitous Tory hard Brexit. Strap yourselves in suckers!

    And you think those comments add to the debate ?
    What debate? This place is like Northern France in WW1 - two trenches hurling ammo at each other, no movement. Just pointless skirmish after pointless skirmsh...
    And it needs dialling down

    And no - it does not compare with the death and destruction of WW1
    The consequences of Hard Brexit, even assuming the pessimists turn out to be right, don't even bear comparison with the Seventies, let alone the Somme. People are getting hysterical over this thing, and I'm sure it's no good for their blood pressure.
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    Theresa May is not steadfast. The woman is completely insane. If she took the wrong turning at a traffic lights, she'd circumnavigate the world before seeing she could have made a mistake.....5 years on she'd still be driving along, all the while proclaiming that she was taking a short-cut.....and 200 belly-crawling Tory MPs would be trotting along behind banging their desks!
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    edited February 2019
    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    SunnyJim said:

    I'm starting to believe that a GE is May's 'best' route through this impasse...


    She can't revoke - political suicide.

    A50 extensions serve little purpose other than as a staging post to R2 or revoke - political suicide.

    Ref2 - political suicide.

    No Deal - political suicide.


    It leaves her with a GE as the only 'out' following the next rejection of her deal.








    Can't argue with any of that.

    The only snag is:

    GE - political suicide.
    But it might solve the impasse.
    Ref2 is less suicidey than GE. It doesn't come with the risk of a Corbyn government.

    (Well, it might if the process either split off the DUP or a chunk of MPs, but the risk is clearly far lower).

    Also, a referendum will definitely produce a positive outcome for one result - possibly a weak one but something will still win. In addition, all the legislation for exiting (or remaining in) the EU can be written into the Act authorising the referendum, which can be made binding and trigger the consequences of whatever wins automatically.

    On the other hand, a GE is a lot quicker.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,782
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Typical EU attitude to democracy. Isn't he supposed to represent all citizens of the EU, in the same way that an MP is supposed to represent all constituents?
    In 51 days we stop being citizens of the EU. Unless Leavers are so addicted to screaming at the EU that they engineer an extension so they can scream some more. Which is horribly likely.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,782

    murali_s said:

    Donald Tusk = Spot on!

    Brexiteers = Xenophobes / little Englanders / thickos (all three cohorts share one thing - no plan worth the paper it's written on).

    "Nothing has changed" - we are still heading for a calamitous Tory hard Brexit. Strap yourselves in suckers!

    And you think those comments add to the debate ?
    What debate? This place is like Northern France in WW1 - two trenches hurling ammo at each other, no movement. Just pointless skirmish after pointless skirmsh...
    And it needs dialling down

    And no - it does not compare with the death and destruction of WW1
    The consequences of Hard Brexit, even assuming the pessimists turn out to be right, don't even bear comparison with the Seventies, let alone the Somme. People are getting hysterical over this thing, and I'm sure it's no good for their blood pressure.
    Is that true (about the 70s)? I seem to recall projections of a 10% GDP drop in one year, which if memory serves is worse than 2007/8 or 1980/81 or anything in the 70s. Happy to be contradicted.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,782

    I rather like Jean-Claude Juncker. I appreciate that this is a minority position.

    https://twitter.com/jujikucz/status/1093167948276137986

    I am not sure doing your 3rd rate stand-up comic routine is quite the right look as both the UK and the EU head rapidly towards a no-deal separation.
    I've said this before and I might reify it into Viewcode's Xth Law: there is a category of Leaver who react with great emotion and disgust to anything EU personnel say, even if it were true or unremarkable if said by anybody else.
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    _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Dinner from Dante’s Ninth Circle of Hell!
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,433
    Chris said:

    Sandpit said:

    So, any guesses as to what 2019’s version of the “Up Yours, Delors!” headline is going to be tomorrow?

    "Please don't be so Brusque, Mr Tusk"?
    I Lolled.
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    _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Alasdair said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Tusk is right, though, however tactless he may have been in spelling it out.

    It is embarrassing watching May turn up to "negotiate" something she agreed to a few weeks ago when any likely result of such "negotiations" will be another defeat in Parliament.

    The Leavers have had no realistic or realisable plan.

    I was prepared to give them the benefit of the doubt, if they had a plan.

    But they don't. And are now blaming everyone else for their own failure.

    That I cannot forgive.

    The result will almost certainly be a disastrously chaotic exit with who knows what economic, political and social consequences, long-term damage to Britain's reputation as a stable, competent polity, harm to other European countries, a Corbyn government and the likely destruction of the Tory party (which is a shame for those decent Tories - both MPs and voters - out there, if not for anyone else).

    And all this despite having two options which would help us climb out of this mess - revocation of Article 50 or a further referendum to decide what we want to do now, in light of the facts as they are now, in the real world, not what people thought prior to 23 June 2016, let alone the facts inside some peoples' heads.

    When you're drowning in an icy lake you take the stick proffered to you, no matter how covered in shit it may be.

    +1
    I dare say we now have an Alistair, an Alastair and an Alasdair. Thankfully, all three are Remainers.

    Welcome.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,433

    I rather like Jean-Claude Juncker. I appreciate that this is a minority position.

    https://twitter.com/jujikucz/status/1093167948276137986

    I do too.
This discussion has been closed.