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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » “Being seen to back Brexit worse for LAB than invading Iraq”

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited February 6 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » “Being seen to back Brexit worse for LAB than invading Iraq”

A poll shown to Momentum and shadow cabinet members shows 'backing Brexit would be worse for Labour than Iraq invasion', @Peston has learnthttps://t.co/8YtByDu6Od pic.twitter.com/DiuTxVLPYp

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Primus inter pares
  • Even after Iraq, Blair won a majority of 66, Corbyn would kill for that.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 14,268
    Second.
  • Forget pineapple on pizza, there's a worse food combo.

    Jalapeño Peanut M&M’s Exist Now, and They Sound...Interesting

    https://www.cosmopolitan.com/food-cocktails/a26206876/new-mms-flavors-jalapeno-peanut/
  • I wonder if they commissioned some leadership polling to see how Jez would do against someone like Starmer.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 32,764
    What no thread on best biscuit?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 32,764
    On topic...hence Jezza's letter this evening. He is trying to cover his arse, and claim it is the evil Tories that are totally responsible for any no-deal Brexit and he tried is absolute hardest to stop it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 39,387
    How could they not be seen to back Brexit? It's been official Labour policy for years now. Are we the public just that stupid?

    It probably doesn't need saying (not that that ever stops me) but of course Labour did win a GE after Iraq (deferred impact, yes yes).
    TudorRose said:

    Is Brexit a cake or a biscuit?

    Either it starts off soft and Norway-ish, and then hardens due to a mysterious internal chemical reaction, or it starts off hard and then softens when exposed to oxygen.

    Isn't it a doughnut? It goes round in circles with a hole in the middle.
    I think it's a meringue. Brittle, now cracking, and hollow inside as no one agrees what should go with it.
    SeanT said:

    BBC Ten just TERRIBLE for Remainers and the EU. They look like spoilt angry teens, chucking insults at the hated UK.

    This will play well with maybe the hardcore 20% Remainers, it will budge the rest of the country towards No Deal, which damages everyone. Stupid, stupid, stupid. Tusk should be sacked, frankly. But how do you sack an EUCO president?

    Well, exactly.

    Why should he be sacked? Given it was not an off the cuff remark which he regrets, but something planned out, reemphasised by a tweet, and which he and Varadkar find hilarious as most of Europe and many in this country squeal in delight about his truth telling, then whatever phony rollbacks there may or may not be from various EU sources, it seems quite apparent that his remarks are shared and endorsed at the highest levels. He's doing what they want.

    I could believe Juncker might unintentionally stir things up after a dinner session with a loose tongue, but Tusk? All on script I'd guess.
    The only Brexits we might get are no deal brexit, or Labour brexit, thanks to the ERG not liking official Tory brexit. Time to choose.

    Except not really, since May wants to take some time off for the next few weeks so more people can say no to things over and over, very useful stuff.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 3,510
    edited February 6
    Well, at least the Post Comment button is no longer under the April 2013 archive link...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 39,387

    What no thread on best biscuit?

    Some things are not necessary to debate because the answer, chocolate covered hobnob, is already obvious to anyone of sound mind.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 32,764
    edited February 6
    SeanT said:

    It will be a delicious irony if Brexit, which has (I confess) been so calamitously mishandled by the Tories, and is in many ways a product of europhile Tory lies (during Maastricht etc, and including Cameron's dismal "deal") ends up destroying.... Labour.

    But I can see it happening under Corbyn.

    Have you not seen the twitterverse faithful response to that video of him banging on about the evils of the EU? It was apparently all a long time ago and doesn't reflect his views now etc etc etc. Even a video showing him marking his ballot paper for Leave would be put down as a deep fake.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 7,106

    Even after Iraq, Blair won a majority of 66, Corbyn would kill for that.

    Naah. He'd have to take responsibility and make decisions. That's what's being in government means...

    ...looks at May...

    ...oh, arse.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 10,086
    SeanT said:

    fpt Nigelb

    "I don’t think Tusk was trolling.
    Watching him on the news, that looked more like genuine anger, barely suppressed.

    Not an impressive display of self control, or political smarts - but I wonder if EU leaders are beginning to believe a no deal Brexit quite likely, and this was Tusk giving in to the impulse to apportion blame ?"

    Answer: YES

    I think the Remainers are venting the final stages of anger and grief. They will recover.

    If we no deal Brexit, I think the anger has only just begun.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 32,764
    SeanT said:

    fpt Nigelb

    "I don’t think Tusk was trolling.
    Watching him on the news, that looked more like genuine anger, barely suppressed.

    Not an impressive display of self control, or political smarts - but I wonder if EU leaders are beginning to believe a no deal Brexit quite likely, and this was Tusk giving in to the impulse to apportion blame ?"

    Answer: YES

    I think the Remainers are venting the final stages of anger and grief. They will recover.

    With the Jezza letter, it seems like everybody is trying to get their finger pointing of blame in first.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 3,510
    What price a leadership challenge in Labour, post-Brexit? IF it happens, it is a serious possibility. Won't necessarily be successful, but someone leftish, reasonably loyal to Jez and thoroughly anti-Brexit would be much more in step with the membership.
  • kle4 said:

    What no thread on best biscuit?

    Some things are not necessary to debate because the answer, chocolate covered hobnob, is already obvious to anyone of sound mind.
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/food/articles-reports/2018/12/17/britains-top-five-biscuits-revealed
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 23,177
    kle4 said:

    What no thread on best biscuit?

    Some things are not necessary to debate because the answer, chocolate covered hobnob, is already obvious to anyone of sound mind.
    I discovered that the Britannia Royal Naval College in Dartmouth has an underground currency like snout in prison: chocolate hobnobs.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 32,764
    edited February 6

    kle4 said:

    What no thread on best biscuit?

    Some things are not necessary to debate because the answer, chocolate covered hobnob, is already obvious to anyone of sound mind.
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/food/articles-reports/2018/12/17/britains-top-five-biscuits-revealed
    You can't trust the public with such an important decision...I mean they have a bloody cake down on that list and no hobnob (plain or chocolate).
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,679
    Corbyn is getting Brexit very wrong.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 32,764
    edited February 6

    kle4 said:

    What no thread on best biscuit?

    Some things are not necessary to debate because the answer, chocolate covered hobnob, is already obvious to anyone of sound mind.
    I discovered that the Britannia Royal Naval College in Dartmouth has an underground currency like snout in prison: chocolate hobnobs.
    Apparently now in US prisons, its those crappy Ramen (instant noodles) packages.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 23,143
    SeanT said:

    fpt Nigelb

    "I don’t think Tusk was trolling.
    Watching him on the news, that looked more like genuine anger, barely suppressed.

    Not an impressive display of self control, or political smarts - but I wonder if EU leaders are beginning to believe a no deal Brexit quite likely, and this was Tusk giving in to the impulse to apportion blame ?"

    Answer: YES

    I think the Remainers are venting the final stages of anger and grief. They will recover.

    There is no good outcome from here. Britain approaches the next spiral down of the corkscrew come what may. The referendum result is going to be one of those examples of a clear inflexion point that can be dated, the date when Britain decisively began to slip towards the fourth tier of nations.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,068
    edited February 6
    Jonathan said:

    Corbyn is getting Brexit very wrong.

    Getting things wrong has served him very nicely for 51 years, why should he change now just because he's driving the Labour Party and the country off a cliff as well?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 39,387

    SeanT said:

    fpt Nigelb

    "I don’t think Tusk was trolling.
    Watching him on the news, that looked more like genuine anger, barely suppressed.

    Not an impressive display of self control, or political smarts - but I wonder if EU leaders are beginning to believe a no deal Brexit quite likely, and this was Tusk giving in to the impulse to apportion blame ?"

    Answer: YES

    I think the Remainers are venting the final stages of anger and grief. They will recover.

    With the Jezza letter, it seems like everybody is trying to get their finger pointing of blame in first.
    That has been apparent for some time now, as several sides appear to be prioritising apportioning blame for probable no deal over making any realistic moves to resolve anything.

    I cannot see any other reason, for instance, why May decided to attempt something she herself had said for months was not possible, other than to try to paint the EU as unreasonable for not giving in (I do think the EU position makes little sense - we don't want a hard border, so we'll insist on something which almost guarantees we will have no deal and need a hard border - but their not shifting on a red line when we said they would not is not absurd).

    Corbyn wants to be seen to have tried to make Brexit work but fail, so remainers, while annoyed, are not inclined to shun Labour, while retaining Brexit voters rightly angry at the government's incompetence.

    The EU has an easier job, since we were the ones to vote for Brexit after all, but by focusing on mockery and their repeated, and entirely false, insistence that they do not know what we want, they focus on how this is ultimately our fault and never mind if a bit of fudge on their end might have avoided a crash out outcome for both.

    It's win win for politicians here and in the EU. In the short term at any rate.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 10,086

    kle4 said:

    What no thread on best biscuit?

    Some things are not necessary to debate because the answer, chocolate covered hobnob, is already obvious to anyone of sound mind.
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/food/articles-reports/2018/12/17/britains-top-five-biscuits-revealed
    You can’t poll matters of taste.
    Otherwise you’d be claiming Mrs Brown’s Boys superior to Shakespeare.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,679
    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Corbyn is getting Brexit very wrong.

    Getting things wrong has served him very nicely for 51 years, why should he change now just because he's driving the Labour Party and the country off a cliff as well?
    Don’t give him undue credit. May is Thelma, the country is Louise.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 32,764
    edited February 6
    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    What no thread on best biscuit?

    Some things are not necessary to debate because the answer, chocolate covered hobnob, is already obvious to anyone of sound mind.
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/food/articles-reports/2018/12/17/britains-top-five-biscuits-revealed
    You can’t poll matters of taste.
    Otherwise you’d be claiming Mrs Brown’s Boys superior to Shakespeare.

    That should be instant ban hammer on PB...anybody who likes Mrs Brown's Boys...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 39,387

    kle4 said:

    What no thread on best biscuit?

    Some things are not necessary to debate because the answer, chocolate covered hobnob, is already obvious to anyone of sound mind.
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/food/articles-reports/2018/12/17/britains-top-five-biscuits-revealed
    What a fix. I like a good digestive, but above ginger nuts, rich tea? This country disgusts me.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 23,177
    Jonathan said:

    Corbyn is getting Brexit very wrong.

    Labour's position on Brexit has been utterly incoherent for many, many months. And it has all been to accommodate Corbyn, Brexit's Bessy Mate.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 39,387
    Scott_P said:
    What? The barely comprehensible last minute fix is not working?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 32,764
    edited February 6
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    What no thread on best biscuit?

    Some things are not necessary to debate because the answer, chocolate covered hobnob, is already obvious to anyone of sound mind.
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/food/articles-reports/2018/12/17/britains-top-five-biscuits-revealed
    What a fix. I like a good digestive, but above ginger nuts, rich tea? This country disgusts me.
    Well all the plebs are also hooked on sugary fizzy sh#ite from Italy above the decent stuff from France or England. No taste.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 10,086
    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    fpt Nigelb

    "I don’t think Tusk was trolling.
    Watching him on the news, that looked more like genuine anger, barely suppressed.

    Not an impressive display of self control, or political smarts - but I wonder if EU leaders are beginning to believe a no deal Brexit quite likely, and this was Tusk giving in to the impulse to apportion blame ?"

    Answer: YES

    I think the Remainers are venting the final stages of anger and grief. They will recover.

    With the Jezza letter, it seems like everybody is trying to get their finger pointing of blame in first.
    That has been apparent for some time now, as several sides appear to be prioritising apportioning blame for probable no deal over making any realistic moves to resolve anything. ..
    So no different from PB for the last year or so...

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 16,599
    edited February 6

    Just trying out the new format sorry to be late to the party.


    Edit: hmmm

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 7,106
    kle4 said:

    What no thread on best biscuit?

    Some things are not necessary to debate because the answer, chocolate covered hobnob, is already obvious to anyone of sound mind.
    +1
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 39,387
    Brexit still not fixed. Liverpool choking like pros in the league. What's next in this cavalcade of crap?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 23,177

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    What no thread on best biscuit?

    Some things are not necessary to debate because the answer, chocolate covered hobnob, is already obvious to anyone of sound mind.
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/food/articles-reports/2018/12/17/britains-top-five-biscuits-revealed
    You can’t poll matters of taste.
    Otherwise you’d be claiming Mrs Brown’s Boys superior to Shakespeare.

    That should be instant ban hammer on PB...anybody who likes Mrs Brown's Boys...
    +100
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 17,610

    SeanT said:

    fpt Nigelb

    "I don’t think Tusk was trolling.
    Watching him on the news, that looked more like genuine anger, barely suppressed.

    Not an impressive display of self control, or political smarts - but I wonder if EU leaders are beginning to believe a no deal Brexit quite likely, and this was Tusk giving in to the impulse to apportion blame ?"

    Answer: YES

    I think the Remainers are venting the final stages of anger and grief. They will recover.

    There is no good outcome from here. Britain approaches the next spiral down of the corkscrew come what may. The referendum result is going to be one of those examples of a clear inflexion point that can be dated, the date when Britain decisively began to slip towards the fourth tier of nations.
    If the worlds fifth largest economy is a fourth tier nation I wonder what the first three tiers are?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 39,387
    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    fpt Nigelb

    "I don’t think Tusk was trolling.
    Watching him on the news, that looked more like genuine anger, barely suppressed.

    Not an impressive display of self control, or political smarts - but I wonder if EU leaders are beginning to believe a no deal Brexit quite likely, and this was Tusk giving in to the impulse to apportion blame ?"

    Answer: YES

    I think the Remainers are venting the final stages of anger and grief. They will recover.

    With the Jezza letter, it seems like everybody is trying to get their finger pointing of blame in first.
    That has been apparent for some time now, as several sides appear to be prioritising apportioning blame for probable no deal over making any realistic moves to resolve anything. ..
    So no different from PB for the last year or so...

    It is perhaps unfortunate that the musing of politically obsessive anoraks without any power bears too much a resemblance to that of the politically obsessive anoraks with power.
  • I get Corbyn's position - its Norway+. Problem is that May wont budge on any of those.

    And Corbyn will tell Labour MPs to abstain thus passing May's deal. Which has the dual benefit for Corbyn of strengthening May and crippling Labour's chances so that he can continue ranting at the moon from the safety of opposition whilst going after the real enemy - Labour MPs councillors and activists.

    Fuck Corbyn.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,068
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    It will be a delicious irony if Brexit, which has (I confess) been so calamitously mishandled by the Tories, and is in many ways a product of europhile Tory lies (during Maastricht etc, and including Cameron's dismal "deal") ends up destroying.... Labour.

    But I can see it happening under Corbyn.

    Have you not seen the twitterverse faithful response to that video of him banging on about the evils of the EU? It was apparently all a long time ago and doesn't reflect his views now etc etc etc. Even a video showing him marking his ballot paper for Leave would be put down as a deep fake.
    Sure, but I think the deluded Corbynites are a rapidly shrinking minority - as the polls show. Only the ultras abide. They are still noisy on Twitter, and elsewhere, but clearly a fast-declining force. The question is will Brexit finish Corbyn before we Brexit?

    He just has to cling on, and deny his contradictions, for a few more months.

    Ironically, Tories should be hoping he succeeds. I think TMay would lose badly to someone like Thornberry, who is now the very obvious successor. She will get the Corbyn vote, but she is also Remain, and just a bit more Blairy and business friendly.
    They both deserve to be more brutally hammered than an anvil where the blacksmith is paid by the blow.

    But they won't be.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 39,387
    Before I decide if fourth tier is dreadful, I do need to know how many tiers there are. Given our population and wealth I'd have thought third tier was about as low as one could go (below superpower and great power)
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 7,395
    With respect to Mr Smithson, he and others have been banging on about how Labour will alienate Remain voters for years, and yet, despite Labour still "backing Brexit" by their definition, the Lib Dems are still stuck in single digits in the polls, with precious few converts from Labour.

    Which isn't to say things are great for Labour, being behind in the polls in the current circumstances is pretty poor, but they're behind because the Tories' voteshare is surprisingly robust. It could be that going ultra-Remain will win votes from those well-known evangelists for the EU that the Tories are, but I somehow doubt it.
  • I get Corbyn's position - its Norway+. Problem is that May wont budge on any of those.

    And Corbyn will tell Labour MPs to abstain thus passing May's deal. Which has the dual benefit for Corbyn of strengthening May and crippling Labour's chances so that he can continue ranting at the moon from the safety of opposition whilst going after the real enemy - Labour MPs councillors and activists.

    Fuck Corbyn.

    He has hoodwinked 75% of his mps and members

    And they have let him
  • RobDRobD Posts: 35,713
    TOPPING said:

    Just trying out the new format sorry to be late to the party.


    Edit: hmmm

    There's a new format?

    Also the quote is now full of garbled html...
  • I’m still not convinced Jez will own a chaotic No Deal Brexit. TMay and the ERG will get that pleasure, possibly to their own surprise as they await the plaudits of a grateful nation for severing all ties.

    I guess tonight’s letter is JC tacking as close to a full-on reverse ferret as he can without looking like (completely) like an unprincipled opportunist arse, while trying to shield himself from those who think he’s betrayed them (and I suspect most of them would buy EEA as a fudge at this stage).

    So given his own predilections, my guess is he’d be happy with anything but a reasonably relaxed exit under TMay’s plan, which would look like success for her (yeah yeah, all relative) and massively piss off his young voters.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 16,068
    edited February 6

    I get Corbyn's position - its Norway+. Problem is that May wont budge on any of those.

    And Corbyn will tell Labour MPs to abstain thus passing May's deal. Which has the dual benefit for Corbyn of strengthening May and crippling Labour's chances so that he can continue ranting at the moon from the safety of opposition whilst going after the real enemy - Labour MPs councillors and activists.

    Fuck Corbyn.

    The time to do that was three months ago. He can't do it now and retain credibility. His moment has gone.

    He is a fool. Not maybe a criminal like his mates Chavez and Ahmadinejad (or Meacher) but so stupid you almost wish he was a criminal.
  • kle4 said:

    What no thread on best biscuit?

    Some things are not necessary to debate because the answer, chocolate covered hobnob, is already obvious to anyone of sound mind.
    Abernethy - the sweet(!) spot between rich tea and digestive - ideal for dunking.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 39,387
    Danny565 said:

    With respect to Mr Smithson, he and others have been banging on about how Labour will alienate Remain voters for years, and yet, despite Labour still "backing Brexit" by their definition, the Lib Dems are still stuck in single digits in the polls, with precious few converts from Labour.

    Which isn't to say things are great for Labour, being behind in the polls in the current circumstances is pretty poor, but they're behind because the Tories' voteshare is surprisingly robust. It could be that going ultra-Remain will win votes from those well-known evangelists for the EU that the Tories are, but I somehow doubt it.

    While I remain surprised Corbyn still backs Brexit so explicitly - I did think he would have switched to a referendum by now - I do still think that many people will be very surprised at how comparatively little impact being seen to back brexit would have for them. I can see different levels of impact depending on what brexit we get and how much Labour are involved (eg through abstention, actively supporting an amended deal, or just shared blame for no deal), but ultimately if you despise Brexit surely you'd want to punish the Tories first, and the Tories, incompetent as they are, might well win easily if Labour's support crashed because of Brexit.

    Why would a Labour voting remainer want that, however angry they were at Corbyn for enabling Brexit?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 7,106

    kle4 said:

    What no thread on best biscuit?

    Some things are not necessary to debate because the answer, chocolate covered hobnob, is already obvious to anyone of sound mind.
    Abernethy - the sweet(!) spot between rich tea and digestive - ideal for dunking.
    Dunking?????

    Eurgh... :(
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 32,764

    kle4 said:

    What no thread on best biscuit?

    Some things are not necessary to debate because the answer, chocolate covered hobnob, is already obvious to anyone of sound mind.
    Abernethy - the sweet(!) spot between rich tea and digestive - ideal for dunking.
    https://youtu.be/HwAYglwe3HU
  • kle4 said:

    Brexit still not fixed. Liverpool choking like pros in the league. What's next in this cavalcade of crap?

    Another test match.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 23,143
    kle4 said:

    Before I decide if fourth tier is dreadful, I do need to know how many tiers there are. Given our population and wealth I'd have thought third tier was about as low as one could go (below superpower and great power)

    Brexit is a chronic disaster. 100 years ago Argentina was one of the world’s richest countries.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 10,086
    The Virginia Democratic leaders are in a world of hurt:
    https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/06/fairfax-accuser-issues-statement-detailing-alleged-assault-1152900
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 39,387
    The coalition years truly were the best for our nation

    https://bakeryinfo.co.uk/news/fullstory.php/aid/13695/Chocolate_Hobnob_named_nation_92s_favourite_biscuit.html
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 39,387

    kle4 said:

    Before I decide if fourth tier is dreadful, I do need to know how many tiers there are. Given our population and wealth I'd have thought third tier was about as low as one could go (below superpower and great power)

    Brexit is a chronic disaster. 100 years ago Argentina was one of the world’s richest countries.
    Well sure, but I'd still like to know how many tiers there are so the disaster level can be assessed.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 39,387
    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    Before I decide if fourth tier is dreadful, I do need to know how many tiers there are. Given our population and wealth I'd have thought third tier was about as low as one could go (below superpower and great power)

    I believe, from my ultra-Remainer friends, that there are thirty seven tiers, and by 2029 we will be in the 26th tier, pending an unexpected demotion to tier 32(b), when we are legally obliged to eat small rodents.
    Ah, so I've got a jump on things there then.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 7,106
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    What no thread on best biscuit?

    Some things are not necessary to debate because the answer, chocolate covered hobnob, is already obvious to anyone of sound mind.
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/food/articles-reports/2018/12/17/britains-top-five-biscuits-revealed
    What a fix. I like a good digestive, but above ginger nuts, rich tea? This country disgusts me.
    Indeed. A comprehensive poll was taken of the Great British Public and the result was an irredeemably incoherent verdict. If only there was a recent event I could analogise this to... :)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 42,387
    https://twitter.com/allahpundit/status/1093276531957399552
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 16,037
    [{"insert":"Lol just when the government can't seem to get any worse, the opposition comes along with \"hold my beer\".\nBasically Jez has given Theresa a free pass to pin the blame on inflexible Labour.\n"}]
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,679
    Tusk really got it wrong today and played the into the Brexiteers hands. Whilst it is undoubtedly true that the hard Brexiteers have an appointment with Beelezebub, I really can’t see what they’ve done to deserve a special place. It plays to their already considerable egos.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 6,753

    kle4 said:

    Before I decide if fourth tier is dreadful, I do need to know how many tiers there are. Given our population and wealth I'd have thought third tier was about as low as one could go (below superpower and great power)

    Brexit is a chronic disaster. 100 years ago Argentina was one of the world’s richest countries.
    Could be worse. Mali was once famous for its riches...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 39,387
    Not that I want this country to diminish, and I know many many places look to areas like the UK and others in Europe and beyond and aspire to be as wealthy and grand, but I sometimes wonder if the average citizen of places we are predicted to end up like through disaster get a bit offended. "You might be as bad as us? It ain't so bad!"
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 17,610

    kle4 said:

    Before I decide if fourth tier is dreadful, I do need to know how many tiers there are. Given our population and wealth I'd have thought third tier was about as low as one could go (below superpower and great power)

    Brexit is a chronic disaster. 100 years ago Argentina was one of the world’s richest countries.
    Which tier of nation would you put Canada in? Australia? Or New Zealand?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 25,229
    Jonathan said:

    Tusk really got it wrong today and played the into the Brexiteers hands. Whilst it is undoubtedly true that the hard Brexiteers have an appointment with Beelezebub, I really can’t see what they’ve done to deserve a special place. It plays to their already considerable egos.

    Perhaps it's a pincer movement between May and the EU to take us to the precipice of no deal, and then make Michael Gove and Boris Johnson own it. There's a good chance one of them will mentally crack and call for Brexit to be cancelled.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 16,037

    On the one side we have remainers fretting (or at least pretending) we're going to slip into x tier and on the same side we have remainers saying brexit will be a deserved humiliation for colonialism etc... which is it?

  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 2,985
    Just because the LDs aren't gaining doesn't mean voterrexs aren't leaving LAB for undecided/not voting over the Brexit issue. Being a Remainer doesn't necessarily mean you have to be a LD
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 39,387
    Jonathan said:

    Tusk really got it wrong today and played the into the Brexiteers hands. Whilst it is undoubtedly true that the hard Brexiteers have an appointment with Beelezebub, I really can’t see what they’ve done to deserve a special place. It plays to their already considerable egos.

    It's only him playing it wrong if it was not his intention to do so. So far the explanations in his defence seem to be that he was just plain right - as if that is the primary concern of a man in his position - which doesn't speak as to his intended outcome, and that he and the EU are just plain sick of our crap, which is understandable, but which would seemingly mean that playing into the Brexiteers hands was also what they want right now.

    So he probably played it right. Unfortunately for us.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 23,177
    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    Before I decide if fourth tier is dreadful, I do need to know how many tiers there are. Given our population and wealth I'd have thought third tier was about as low as one could go (below superpower and great power)

    I believe, from my ultra-Remainer friends, that there are thirty seven tiers, and by 2029 we will be in the 26th tier, pending an unexpected demotion to tier 32(b), when we are legally obliged to eat small rodents.
    Ah, so I've got a jump on things there then.
    As a follower of the Prophecies of the Meeks, especially the crucial verses 45-62, where He deals with Ye Grayte Inflexion Pointe, and the Sadde Abundance of Rattes, I am already stockpiling DORMICE.
    Psst. Seashells. Start hoarding them now - and when they become our new currency, you'll be able to buy the last packet of Chocolate Hobnobs. THAT'S gonna be a status symbol to flaunt.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 3,970
    I adore Tusk. I’m going to have his face tattooed on my back.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 16,037
    [{"insert":"Also, as someone who's probably been to more 4th (and lower) tier countries than most - it's not so bad. They tend to have higher per capita growth and the people all seem much happier than the average Londoner (admittedly not a difficult proposition).\n"}]
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 12,396
    edited February 6

    SeanT said:

    fpt Nigelb

    "I don’t think Tusk was trolling.
    Watching him on the news, that looked more like genuine anger, barely suppressed.

    Not an impressive display of self control, or political smarts - but I wonder if EU leaders are beginning to believe a no deal Brexit quite likely, and this was Tusk giving in to the impulse to apportion blame ?"

    Answer: YES

    I think the Remainers are venting the final stages of anger and grief. They will recover.

    There is no good outcome from here. Britain approaches the next spiral down of the corkscrew come what may. The referendum result is going to be one of those examples of a clear inflexion point that can be dated, the date when Britain decisively began to slip towards the fourth tier of nations.
    FPT - The Breaking Point poster was unveiled a week before the vote. By that time postal votes will already have been sent in. The Turkey poster was unveiled around May 23rd.

    If Remain wanted to win, it should have been making the positive case for Britain’s membership of the EU long before the campaign started. And it should have had an answer to peoples’ concerns about immigration. In that sense I think the referendum was likely lost before the campaign started and the poor Remain campaign did not change the position sufficiently.

    You have said before in response to a question from me that these two are the xenophobic posters you object to. I have asked you - but don’t believe I ever got a response - whether, if Leave had won but without those posters, what difference do you think it would have made.

    Would you describe a campaign based in part on immigration concerns but without untrue/misleading posters/claims as xenophobic?

    And if not, wouldn’t it lead to exactly the same red lines as now - on FoM, for instance?

    No obligation on you to answer but would be interested in your response.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 39,387

    Jonathan said:

    Tusk really got it wrong today and played the into the Brexiteers hands. Whilst it is undoubtedly true that the hard Brexiteers have an appointment with Beelezebub, I really can’t see what they’ve done to deserve a special place. It plays to their already considerable egos.

    Perhaps it's a pincer movement between May and the EU to take us to the precipice of no deal, and then make Michael Gove and Boris Johnson own it. There's a good chance one of them will mentally crack and call for Brexit to be cancelled.
    My money would be on Gove. Boris has the flexibility to do it, but politically a crash out works better for him as he has been out of government long enough to claim he would have sorted it all out if only he'd been listened to.

    And pinning hopes on people by pushing them to the precipice and then yelling at them to jump off already you cowards, strikes me as having a high chance of seeing them cross into the precipice out of sheer bloodymindedness.

    It's up there with the theories people would not vote to do something so clearly not in their best interests, when the losing side in many elections and referendums see that happen all the time.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 39,387

    I adore Tusk. I’m going to have his face tattooed on my back.

    Better to be on your chest, then you can stare into his eyes lovingly whenever you wish. What good is a back tattoo only lovers and people who see you sunbathing or exercising without a shirt will see?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 21,215
    On topic: I'm confused. Labour has already backed Brexit. They voted for Article 50 to be invoked. They repeated their backing in the general election campaign. In fact their current position, repeated this evening, is that they back the most extreme form of crash-out no-deal Brexit, since the conditions they apply to backing any alternative are clearly unobtainable.

    Now, I do of course understand that you have to be pretty thick to think that voting for Corbyn will make your or anyone else's life better, but are Labour supporters really so thick that they haven't yet understood that Corbyn backs Brexit?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 10,679
    My “We’re fucked-o-meter” broke today. Not a warranty repair according to John Lewis. Apparently the only available functioning system is weapons grade, hitherto only used for specialist applications of total scewed ness, like being a Lib Dem. Never been applied to a country before.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,427
    I'm sceptical that Brexit will destroy Corbyn or do lasting damage to Labour. People will definitely be angry if Labour are seen to not be doing enough to stop Brexit, but once it happens I think old left\right divides will kick back in come any election. I definitely fall on the anti-Brexit (or Norway at least) side of the spectrum, I voted Labour last time and will most likely vote for them again regardless of their role in Brexit simply because we are stuck in a system where you vote against your least favourite party, and no election will ever just be fought based on Brexit. No one angry with Labour on brexit is going to find much on offer in the tories, and the Lib Dems have become so irrelevant that the Tim Farron days are looked back on with nostalgia. They could of course lose some seats but on the whole its unlikely to be a defining moment for Labour.

    Perhaps in Scotland to the SNP is the greatest Labour risk if they are seen to have failed on Brexit.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 23,177
    kle4 said:

    I adore Tusk. I’m going to have his face tattooed on my back.

    Better to be on your chest, then you can stare into his eyes lovingly whenever you wish. What good is a back tattoo only lovers and people who see you sunbathing or exercising without a shirt will see?
    Depends if you are risk of a spell in chokey....
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 42,387
    https://twitter.com/Petercampbell1/status/1093263010225885185
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 1,159

    The Lib Dems will stay marooned in the polls for as long as Low Voltage Cable is in charge. (Charge, geddit? Oh never mind...)

    Swinson or, preferably, Moran would see them jump to 15%ish, I reckon, which is not enough to gain any sort of power but plenty enough to deprive Labour of it.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 16,037
    [{"insert":{"embed-external":{"data":{"url":"https:\/\/politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com\/discussion\/comment\/2193559#Comment_2193559","type":"quote","name":null,"body":null,"photoUrl":null,"height":null,"width":null,"attributes":{"commentID":2193559,"bodyRaw":"I adore Tusk. I\u2019m going to have his face tattooed on my back.<\/blockquote>\r\n\r\nBetter to be on your chest, then you can stare into his eyes lovingly whenever you wish. What good is a back tattoo only lovers and people who see you sunbathing or exercising without a shirt will see?<\/blockquote>\r\n\r\nDepends if you are risk of a spell in chokey....","dateInserted":"2019-02-06T23:02:03+00:00","dateUpdated":null,"insertUser":{"userID":149,"name":"MarqueeMark","photoUrl":"https:\/\/us.v-cdn.net\/5020679\/uploads\/userpics\/138\/n1YPUJCA6P6RD.jpg","dateLastActive":"2019-02-06T22:58:13+00:00"},"url":"https:\/\/politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com\/discussion\/comment\/2193559#Comment_2193559","format":"Html"}},"loaderData":{"type":"link","link":"https:\/\/politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com\/discussion\/comment\/2193559#Comment_2193559"}}}},{"insert":"How many years does treason carry these days?\n"}]
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 23,177
    Jonathan said:

    My “We’re fucked-o-meter” broke today. Not a warranty repair according to John Lewis. Apparently the only available functioning system is weapons grade, hitherto only used for specialist applications of total scewed ness, like being a Lib Dem. Never been applied to a country before.

    You can borrow Yemen's.

    But you'll have to collect.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 21,215
    Why is Vanilla displaying posts with apparently random formatting?
  • SeanT said:

    dixiedean said:

    What price a leadership challenge in Labour, post-Brexit? IF it happens, it is a serious possibility. Won't necessarily be successful, but someone leftish, reasonably loyal to Jez and thoroughly anti-Brexit would be much more in step with the membership.

    THORNBERRY

    I said it here FIRST. About three years ago. She sounds reassuringly posh to the centrists, yet she is reassuringly lefty to lefties.
    surely she comes across as condescending to most of the electorate?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 39,387

    Why is Vanilla displaying posts with apparently random formatting?

    Brexit's fault.

    Or a system update. Why only some are affected though I do not know.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 7,395

    The Lib Dems will stay marooned in the polls for as long as Low Voltage Cable is in charge. (Charge, geddit? Oh never mind...)

    Swinson or, preferably, Moran would see them jump to 15%ish, I reckon, which is not enough to gain any sort of power but plenty enough to deprive Labour of it.

    It wasn't so long ago that people were claiming all the Lib Dems had to do was got a leader other than Farron, and they'd automatically fly up in the polls...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 23,177

    The Lib Dems will stay marooned in the polls for as long as Low Voltage Cable is in charge. (Charge, geddit? Oh never mind...)

    Swinson or, preferably, Moran would see them jump to 15%ish, I reckon, which is not enough to gain any sort of power but plenty enough to deprive Labour of it.

    Watt? Ohm my.....
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 12,396

    kle4 said:

    Before I decide if fourth tier is dreadful, I do need to know how many tiers there are. Given our population and wealth I'd have thought third tier was about as low as one could go (below superpower and great power)

    Brexit is a chronic disaster. 100 years ago Argentina was one of the world’s richest countries.

    You have said before that you could have been persuaded to the Brexit side if there had been a clear articulation of what a Britain outside the EU would be like and a clear plan for how to get from here to there. I paraphrase and hope I have not misrepresented you.

    If so - and if such a plan had been articulated, then presumably you would be taking a different view. So it cannot be the concept of Brexit which is a chronic disaster but the particular Brexit we are enduring.

    In short the disaster is contingent not inevitable. Or have I misunderstood you?

    Apologies if so.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 21,215
    kle4 said:

    Why is Vanilla displaying posts with apparently random formatting?

    Brexit's fault.

    Or a system update. Why only some are affected though I do not know.
    It seems to be some posts and not others. Very odd.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 3,475
    edited February 6

    Watching the fantastic Europe documentary, it’s fascinating, isn’t it, how Greece was basically about to be pushed out of the Euro but for Francois Hollande ringing Tsipris up and saying, “mate - you’re about to be sooo fucked.”

    Sadly, Theresa doesn’t have a single ally on the inside, having alienated the entire EU 27 with her rigidity, her insulting choice of Brexit ministers, and - worst of all - her double dealing.

    However, nobody wants a No Deal.

    Both May and the EU are can-kickers par excellence - and this can is gonna keep kicking until something changes on either the parliamentary or the EU’s side. We will see a delay. And if necessary, a delay to the delay, to avoid something which no side actually wants.

    May main playbook is to wait for events to provide something - anything - to change numbers in the House, while trying to block avenues to Remain so that sane MPs will be forced to choose her Deal (or some variation of it).

    Plan A, the “Fear of a No Deal” campaign doesn’t seem to be working, although she is obliged to stick with it. Plan B Is to apply pressure to Labour MPs to support an “orderly Brexit”. That is unlikely to work either. Even abstention is not actually in most Labour MP’s interests. Plan C is an election...however far-fetched this is now looking reasonably likely...

  • philiphphiliph Posts: 3,232
    Danny565 said:

    The Lib Dems will stay marooned in the polls for as long as Low Voltage Cable is in charge. (Charge, geddit? Oh never mind...)

    Swinson or, preferably, Moran would see them jump to 15%ish, I reckon, which is not enough to gain any sort of power but plenty enough to deprive Labour of it.

    It wasn't so long ago that people were claiming all the Lib Dems had to do was got a leader other than Farron, and they'd automatically fly up in the polls...
    It wasn't widely believed they would be so dumb as to select a nuclear weapons touting dozy past it narcissist like Cable as a replacement for Farron
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 510

    Donny Tusk today called for a special place in Hell.

    Vanilla Forums have duly provided one.

  • philiphphiliph Posts: 3,232
    Charles said:
    You are too kind by a long way.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 21,215
    No, I'm on a desktop machine (Windows/Chrome).
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 17,610
    That's good to know.

    *settings -> request desktop site*

    Ah that's better.
This discussion has been closed.