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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A 2019 general election no longer favourite in the year of nex

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  • I think the Ultra Remoaners should Leave TBH

    Corbyn and his merry band of lexiteers are very much in the minority in the PLP and the movement at large. Corbyn is in danger.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870

    Scott_P said:
    It is ready to "beef up" the political declaration only in a more Remainy direction.

    Otherwise, it will say the UK needs to decide what it wants.
    Is it my imagination
    Or have I finally found something worth Brexiting for?
    I was looking for some action
    But all I found was cake and unicorns

    Is it worth the aggravation
    To find yourself a deal when there's nothing worth Brexiting for?
    It's a crazy situation
    But all I need is cake and unicorns.

    You could wait for a lifetime
    To spend your days in the sunshine
    You might as well do the white line
    Cos when it comes on top

    You gotta make it happen
    "Definitely Maybe" does pretty much sum up May's negotiating positions.
  • OT: we seem to be back to old-style Vanilla. What was the fix?

  • I think the Ultra Remoaners should Leave TBH

    Corbyn and his merry band of lexiteers are very much in the minority in the PLP and the movement at large. Corbyn is in danger.
    Let's have a leadership challenge.

    That should liven things up a little.
  • Brendan O'Neill, a template:

    `WHO ARE THE REAL ${BAD_PEOPLE}?
    IS IT THE ${BAD_PEOPLE} OR THE PEOPLE
    WHO ARE OPPOSED TO THE ${BAD_PEOPLE}?`
  • Vanilla doesn't work on mobile again.

    Normaility is resumed.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748
    edited February 2019

    Fatal stabbings at highest level since records began in 1946

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-47156957

    According to the stats presented, you are more likely to be murdered in the ghetto of North Warwickshire than London.

    Isn't the fact that gangsters are stabbing each other a good thing, because it shows that obtaining guns is too difficult to be worth the effort most of the time?
    I recall a 'Libertarian' Gibraltarian on here proposing that liberalised gun laws in the UK would reduce violent deaths. Unfortunately I can't remember if there was any half-arsed logic offered for his thesis or he just felt it in his water.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Scott_P said:

    Bit higher than the growth forecasts for Germany - govt would take that in a heartbeat.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    The damage continues: EasyJet are transferring over 1,000 pilots, re-issuing 3,300 cabin crew licences and re-registering 133 aircraft from the UK to Austria, and are creating a second spare parts “hub” in the EU to limit exposure to any logistical supply chain risks between the EU and the UK.

    No one of these moves by UK businesses is a big deal, but the cumulative effect across multiple industries is the most extraordinary self-inflicted wound, akin to imposing economic sanctions on ourselves.

    Didn't they do that in 2017?
    They registered the Austrian subsidiary a couple of years ago, now looks like they are starting to use it for internal EU flights eg. Paris-Rome.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    felix said:

    Scott_P said:
    Worst. PM. Ever.

    Even Eden wasn't this useless.
    I like the naivety of some who think another leader would by now have produced the perfect Brexit deal which the EU would have lovingly accepted without a murmur.
    It's not the EU, murmuring or not, that has to accept the deal, it's parliament, the Tory Party, the Labour Party, the ERG, the DUP and all the no plan Brexiteers in their wee corner of hell. The EU has accepted 'the' deal.
    The EU has compromised but the deal is unacceptable as you say to vast numbers of MPs. It is they who seem to think that the EU is bound to accept whatever they demand. May has made numerous errors but the biggest problem she has faced throughout is less an inability to negotiate but much more an impossible brief. For the Brexiteers to blame her for the debacle is ridiculous. She cannot produce the unicorns they demand and nor can anyone else.
  • gypsumfantasticgypsumfantastic Posts: 258
    edited February 2019

    Fatal stabbings at highest level since records began in 1946

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-47156957

    According to the stats presented, you are more likely to be murdered in the ghetto of North Warwickshire than London.

    Isn't the fact that gangsters are stabbing each other a good thing, because it shows that obtaining guns is too difficult to be worth the effort most of the time?
    I recall a 'Libertarian' Gibraltarian on here proposing that liberalised gun laws in the UK would reduce violent deaths. Unfortunately I can't remember if there was any logic offered for his thesis or he just felt it in his water.
    Turns out that, if you exclude the US, there's a surprisingly weak correlation between gun ownership and gun crime internationally.

    Conclusion: the biggest problem with gun crime in the US isn't guns, it's Americans.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Scott_P said:
    It is ready to "beef up" the political declaration only in a more Remainy direction.

    Otherwise, it will say the UK needs to decide what it wants.
    Is it my imagination
    Or have I finally found something worth Brexiting for?
    I was looking for some action
    But all I found was cake and unicorns

    Is it worth the aggravation
    To find yourself a deal when there's nothing worth Brexiting for?
    It's a crazy situation
    But all I need is cake and unicorns.

    You could wait for a lifetime
    To spend your days in the sunshine
    You might as well do the white line
    Cos when it comes on top

    You gotta make it happen
    "Definitely Maybe" does pretty much sum up May's negotiating positions.
    Maybe an agreement is easier if we supply cigarettes and alcohol?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748
    edited February 2019
    Become?!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,397
    Looks like I am an anti-natalist...

    "India man to sue parents for giving birth to him"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-47154287

    Not that I would litigate, but I agree with some of his sentiments.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited February 2019
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Not sure "Moderate" is the best word to describe somebody who'd resign to force a second referendum
  • The great thing about Dan Hodges is that he is so consistently, reliably wrong with his predictions about Corbyn and Labour you can set your watch by the opposite of whatever he says the time is.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723

    Become?!
    +1

    Never been relevant since Chicken Coup
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,397
    Anyone who would contemplate leaving Labour over a second-order issue like the EU isn't a Moderate, they're a fanatic.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900

    I recall a 'Libertarian' Gibraltarian on here proposing that liberalised gun laws in the UK would reduce violent deaths. Unfortunately I can't remember if there was any logic offered for his thesis or he just felt it in his water.


    It's the argument the USians always advance - that while they might have lots of gun murders, they are replacing stabbing deaths.

    In reality, the US actually has something like 60% higher knife murders per capita than the UK, as well as 60x as many gun murders per capita.
  • Fatal stabbings at highest level since records began in 1946

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-47156957

    According to the stats presented, you are more likely to be murdered in the ghetto of North Warwickshire than London.

    Isn't the fact that gangsters are stabbing each other a good thing, because it shows that obtaining guns is too difficult to be worth the effort most of the time?
    I recall a 'Libertarian' Gibraltarian on here proposing that liberalised gun laws in the UK would reduce violent deaths. Unfortunately I can't remember if there was any logic offered for his thesis or he just felt it in his water.
    Turns out that, if you exclude the US, there's a surprisingly weak correlation between gun ownership and gun crime internationally.

    Conclusion: the biggest problem with gun crime in the US isn't guns, it's Americans.
    Are you saying guns don't kill people, rappers do?
  • Looks like I am an anti-natalist...

    "India man to sue parents for giving birth to him"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-47154287

    Not that I would litigate, but I agree with some of his sentiments.

    In the beginning, the universe was created. This is widely regarded to have been a poor decision.

    Can we sue god?
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Become?!
    +1

    Never been relevant since Chicken Coup
    Is that an upcoming Pixar movie?
  • Looks like I am an anti-natalist...

    "India man to sue parents for giving birth to him"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-47154287

    Not that I would litigate, but I agree with some of his sentiments.

    In the beginning, the universe was created. This is widely regarded to have been a poor decision.

    Can we sue god?
    Wasn't there a Billy Connolly movie where he sued god?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723

    Anyone who would contemplate leaving Labour over a second-order issue like the EU isn't a Moderate, they're a fanatic.
    Absolutely.

    #FBPE types have lost all perspective.

  • Are you saying guns don't kill people, rappers do?

    Americans just don't like Americans very much. Which is why they're so insistent on murdering each other by any means necessary.

    If London were in the US, it would not be in the top 250 most violent US cities.

  • Scott_P said:
    It would seem to be very unlikely to be selected, since it will be opposed by Labour and the government.
  • Fatal stabbings at highest level since records began in 1946

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-47156957

    According to the stats presented, you are more likely to be murdered in the ghetto of North Warwickshire than London.

    Isn't the fact that gangsters are stabbing each other a good thing, because it shows that obtaining guns is too difficult to be worth the effort most of the time?
    I recall a 'Libertarian' Gibraltarian on here proposing that liberalised gun laws in the UK would reduce violent deaths. Unfortunately I can't remember if there was any logic offered for his thesis or he just felt it in his water.
    Turns out that, if you exclude the US, there's a surprisingly weak correlation between gun ownership and gun crime internationally.

    Conclusion: the biggest problem with gun crime in the US isn't guns, it's Americans.
    Aye, I think Canada has at least as high gun ownership as the US but obviously a fraction of the gun deaths. If the septics hadn't fetishised the 2nd Amendment, the frontier spirit, home defence & general gun toting manliness, they might be in with a chance of sorting it.

    But they have, so they're fcuked.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,429
    [{"insert":"It is possible on vanilla to select the particular format theme of the forum. It would probably be Robert with the power to do this? \n"}]
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    Scott_P said:
    Which form of AV - perhaps TSE could explain the various options available?
  • gypsumfantasticgypsumfantastic Posts: 258
    edited February 2019
    Serious question:

    What is the point of May's visit?

    - The EU have repeatedly ruled out reopening the WA or changing the backstop, before she even arrived.
    - The Malthouse Compromise has blown itself apart amid accusations of betrayal and stitch-ups.
    - May hasn't a single proposal, either concrete or unicorn, to offer the EU.

    She'd have been better off staying in bed and binge watching Marie Kondo on Netflix.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    Anyone who would contemplate leaving Labour over a second-order issue like the EU isn't a Moderate, they're a fanatic.
    Brexit is the most vital immediate issue facing the country at the moment, and one that will not be easily reversed either way. It is also synonymous with the way we view ourselves and our place in the world.

    And it's a mess. Sadly.
  • Anyone who would contemplate leaving Labour over a second-order issue like the EU isn't a Moderate, they're a fanatic.
    Brexit is the most vital immediate issue facing the country at the moment, and one that will not be easily reversed either way. It is also synonymous with the way we view ourselves and our place in the world.

    And it's a mess. Sadly.
    A metaphor need not be beautiful to be accurate.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,397
    eek said:

    Scott_P said:
    Which form of AV - perhaps TSE could explain the various options available?
    Perfect for St Valentine's day - a romantic AV thread for two.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Serious question:

    What is the point of May's visit?

    - The EU have repeatedly ruled out reopening the WA or changing the backstop, before she even arrived.
    - The Malthouse Compromise has blown itself apart amid accusations of betrayal and stitch-ups.
    - May hasn't a single proposal, either concrete or unicorn, to offer the EU.

    She'd have been better off staying in bed and binge watching Marie Kondo on Netflix.

    I assume when they actually have these meetings they're all just sitting silently playing Candy Crush while their staff get together to write up the official statements they'll make and things they'll leak afterwards
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    Clever from May if she has secured another extended period for continued 'talks' with the EU. Parliament can probably forget about that Valentine's Day vote.

    And further delay would no surprise whatsoever. All that matters to our tough-as-teak PM is keeping the deal alive and in play. She calculates that if it is still there at the death, with MPs having failed to oust her and vote bindingly instead for BINO or revoke/referendum, then TINA rules and it passes.

    Might not work (in which case general election) but then again it definitely maybe might. Certainly she has to follow this strategy. No point moaning and groaning at her. It makes perfect sense.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    edited February 2019
    <blockquote class="Quote" rel="Sandpit">
    Aircraft landing gear that's retractable should have pins placed in them when under maintainance on the ground, that physically stops them moving if someone screws up the hydraulics.

    It's on the pilot checklist, that the pins are in the cockpit before they start up, and not still on the landing gear. They also have 3' red coloured steamers hanging from them, so that a pilot walking around the aircraft remembers to take them out.

    (Yes, maintenance people have put their own pins in the gear before, without the streamers, leaving the aircraft's set in the cockpit just to screw with the pilots. Several commercial aircraft has taken off and had to come straight back because the gear wouldn't retract, thanks to some random gear pins that shouldn't have been there.)</blockquote>

    ------ urgh, borken quotes.

    I guess they must have forgotten then ... :)

    There's also an old - probably apocryphal - story about an Eastern European airbase during the Cold War. A row of planes were lined up, and a security guard accidentally bends the tube sticking out the front (pitot?). Since it looks different, he goes down the line of planes and bends all the others to look similar ...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    edited February 2019
    <blockquote class="Quote" rel="Scott_P">AV KLAXON !!!

    https://twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/1093486405957926912

    https://twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/1093486795856195585

    </blockquote>

    [In Reply To Scott P Tweet]

    Will be very interesting to see just how much "support" there really is for a second referendum in Parlaiment.

    If this crashes and burns might we *finally* have a end to this year of neverending "People's Vote" bullshit?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,342
    Today's developments suggest that as long as TM can find a way of helping the Labour party not to have its hands too much in the gore she will get home and dry on the WA with either Labour assistance or (more likely) enough absence of non-assistance, which will be just as good.

    People are forgetting all the time that to deliver abolition of FoM and also to keep big commerce, industry and agriculture more or less onside looks and seems impossible. She is not far off actually doing it. It's very messy and I would much prefer 'Norway for Now' but this will do.

    It is tempting fate to wonder what happens to party politics afterwards...…..foresight fails.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    > @gypsumfantastic said:
    > Serious question:
    >
    > What is the point of May's visit?
    >
    > - The EU have repeatedly ruled out reopening the WA or changing the backstop, before she even arrived.
    > - The Malthouse Compromise has blown itself apart amid accusations of betrayal and stitch-ups.
    > - May hasn't a single proposal, either concrete or unicorn, to offer the EU.
    >
    > She'd have been better off staying in bed and binge watching Marie Kondo on Netflix.

    It is a show.

    The EU has decided to sit back and let one side break. They do not care if that is the UK or Ireland. They just do not want to be the one that forces Ireland to back off if they do.

    If it results in no deal they will say we defended our member it is the Brits fault, EU unity.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    > @Theuniondivvie said:
    > Fatal stabbings at highest level since records began in 1946
    >
    > https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-47156957
    >
    > According to the stats presented, you are more likely to be murdered in the ghetto of North Warwickshire than London.
    >
    > Isn't the fact that gangsters are stabbing each other a good thing, because it shows that obtaining guns is too difficult to be worth the effort most of the time?
    >
    > I recall a 'Libertarian' Gibraltarian on here proposing that liberalised gun laws in the UK would reduce violent deaths. Unfortunately I can't remember if there was any logic offered for his thesis or he just felt it in his water.
    >
    > Turns out that, if you exclude the US, there's a surprisingly weak correlation between gun ownership and gun crime internationally.
    >
    > Conclusion: the biggest problem with gun crime in the US isn't guns, it's Americans.
    >
    > Aye, I think Canada has at least as high gun ownership as the US but obviously a fraction of the gun deaths. If the septics hadn't fetishised the 2nd Amendment, the frontier spirit, home defence & general gun toting manliness, they might be in with a chance of sorting it.
    >
    > But they have, so they're fcuked.

    A significant proportion of US gun death are suicides. They have the decency to use them to go and blow their brains out - rather than jump under a train and piss off 50,000 delayed commuters.
  • > @SandyRentool said:
    > AV KLAXON !!!
    >
    > https://twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/1093486405957926912
    >
    >
    >
    > https://twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/1093486795856195585
    >
    >
    >
    > Which form of AV - perhaps TSE could explain the various options available?
    >
    > Perfect for St Valentine's day - a romantic AV thread for two.

    My 4 day romantic break begins on the 15th.

    I might be persuaded to do an AV thread this Sunday.
  • > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    > > @SandyRentool said:
    > > AV KLAXON !!!
    > >
    > > https://twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/1093486405957926912
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > https://twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/1093486795856195585
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > Which form of AV - perhaps TSE could explain the various options available?
    > >
    > > Perfect for St Valentine's day - a romantic AV thread for two.
    >
    > My 4 day romantic break begins on the 15th.
    >
    > I might be persuaded to do an AV thread this Sunday.

    Oh holy feck sticks.
  • > @kinabalu said:
    > Clever from May if she has secured another extended period for continued 'talks' with the EU. Parliament can probably forget about that Valentine's Day vote.
    >
    > And further delay would no surprise whatsoever. All that matters to our tough-as-teak PM is keeping the deal alive and in play. She calculates that if it is still there at the death, with MPs having failed to oust her and vote bindingly instead for BINO or revoke/referendum, then TINA rules and it passes.
    >
    > Might not work (in which case general election) but then again it definitely maybe might. Certainly she has to follow this strategy. No point moaning and groaning at her. It makes perfect sense.

    The DUP will crash her government onto the rocks before they let that happen.

    Also, imagine that May somehow succeeds in using blackmail and market chaos to "win" a MV. She then has to get all the enabling legislation through the very same exhauted and furious Parliament that she'd just been turning the thumb screws on.

    Winning the MV is only the first step. May then needs to deliver seven acts of Parliament. Without a majority.
  • > @kinabalu said:
    > Clever from May if she has secured another extended period for continued 'talks' with the EU. Parliament can probably forget about that Valentine's Day vote.
    >
    > And further delay would no surprise whatsoever. All that matters to our tough-as-teak PM is keeping the deal alive and in play. She calculates that if it is still there at the death, with MPs having failed to oust her and vote bindingly instead for BINO or revoke/referendum, then TINA rules and it passes.
    >
    > Might not work (in which case general election) but then again it definitely maybe might. Certainly she has to follow this strategy. No point moaning and groaning at her. It makes perfect sense.

    The only think that is nor sense is a GE

    It may happen later in the year but only when brexit is clearer.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Any chance of Mike starting a Patreon for this site and using the proceeds to pay for a better alternative to vanilla?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,764
    Back from not as sunny as it might have been Glasgow. On the radio whilst driving I heard Owen Smith asked how he could remain a member of the Labour party and replying, "That's a very good question". He is giving it serious thought and suggested others are too. It would be frankly hilarious if Labour were the first party to split because of Brexit.
  • > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    > > > @SandyRentool said:
    > > > AV KLAXON !!!
    > > >
    > > > https://twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/1093486405957926912
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > https://twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/1093486795856195585
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > Which form of AV - perhaps TSE could explain the various options available?
    > > >
    > > > Perfect for St Valentine's day - a romantic AV thread for two.
    > >
    > > My 4 day romantic break begins on the 15th.
    > >
    > > I might be persuaded to do an AV thread this Sunday.
    >
    > Oh holy feck sticks.

    Bugger
  • No idea what the error and rich post are !!!!!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    @gypsumfantastic

    She gets to have lunch with Guy Verhofstadt - That honour is worth the euro star train fare alone...
  • gypsumfantasticgypsumfantastic Posts: 258
    edited February 2019
    Vanilla is acting the spaz again.

    `JSON could not be converted into quill operations.`

    The DUP will crash her government onto the rocks before they let May blackmail them into supporting her deal.

    Also, imagine that May somehow succeeds in using blackmail and market chaos to "win" a MV. She then has to get all the enabling legislation through the very same exhauted and furious Parliament that she'd just been turning the thumb screws on.

    Winning the MV is only the first step. May then needs to deliver seven acts of Parliament. Without a majority.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    Sammy Wilson has just described the European Commission as a "cesspit, bubbling with hellfire". He added that Tusk "sucks worms from the devil's anus."
  • > @Stereotomy said:
    > Any chance of Mike starting a Patreon for this site and using the proceeds to pay for a better alternative to vanilla?

    I've informed the powers that be.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723
    > @Stereotomy said:
    > https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1093485026115833856
    >
    >
    >
    > So, guaranteed nothing will happen.
    >
    > Become?!
    >
    > +1
    >
    > Never been relevant since Chicken Coup
    >
    > Is that an upcoming Pixar movie?

    Nah a 2016 classic where Mike Gammon the friendly Pig and Toby the gentle Giraffe were under the misapprehension that 250 of the farm animals were more important than the other 500,000 animals.

    They were soon brought to their senses and really should have left the farm altogether by now.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    > > @Stereotomy said:
    > > Any chance of Mike starting a Patreon for this site and using the proceeds to pay for a better alternative to vanilla?
    >
    > I've informed the powers that be.

    But vanilla being crap isn't new information, right? I assumed the reason we're stuck with it is financial
  • > @Sean_F said:
    > Sammy Wilson has just described the European Commission as a "cesspit, bubbling with hellfire". He added that Tusk "sucks worms from the devil's anus."

    Brexit has taken a weird turn. But I'm here for it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited February 2019
    <blockquote=@TheScreamingEagles>
    <blockquote=@Stereotomy>
    Any chance of Mike starting a Patreon for this site and using the proceeds to pay for a better alternative to vanilla?
    </blockquote>
    I've informed the powers that be.</blockquote>

    The die the blockquote died
  • > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    > > @Stereotomy said:
    > > Any chance of Mike starting a Patreon for this site and using the proceeds to pay for a better alternative to vanilla?
    >
    > I've informed the powers that be.

    Who's the nerd scapegoat? Smithson Junior?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    I have a very serious and heartfelt question for PBs who are both Tory and ardent Remainers, the likes of 'Screaming Eagles', 'Alastair Meeks', 'Topping, 'Nigel Formain' etc.

    It is -

    Assuming the hypothetical of a snap election pre-brexit - the Cons fighting under TM on her Deal - Labour under JC offering a dose of socialism but also a renegotiation with the EU followed by a Referendum (!) on their new Deal vs Remain -

    How do you vote?

    Does your desire to Remain in the EU trump your aversion to Red Jez as PM?
  • > @Stereotomy said:
    > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    > > > @Stereotomy said:
    > > > Any chance of Mike starting a Patreon for this site and using the proceeds to pay for a better alternative to vanilla?
    > >
    > > I've informed the powers that be.
    >
    > But vanilla being crap isn't new information, right? I assumed the reason we're stuck with it is financial

    Vanilla is very expensive, DISQUS was free.

    The main attraction of Vanilla is that it is one of the few commenting platforms that doesn't insist on nested comments.
  • <blockquote class="Quote" rel="gypsumfantastic">Serious question:

    What is the point of May's visit?

    - The EU have repeatedly ruled out reopening the WA or changing the backstop, before she even arrived.
    - The Malthouse Compromise has blown itself apart amid accusations of betrayal and stitch-ups.
    - May hasn't a single proposal, either concrete or unicorn, to offer the EU.

    She'd have been better off staying in bed and binge watching Marie Kondo on Netflix.</blockquote>

    May could declutter her life, pace Kondo, by removing the Whip from ERG.
  • > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    > > @Stereotomy said:
    > > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    > > > > @Stereotomy said:
    > > > > Any chance of Mike starting a Patreon for this site and using the proceeds to pay for a better alternative to vanilla?
    > > >
    > > > I've informed the powers that be.
    > >
    > > But vanilla being crap isn't new information, right? I assumed the reason we're stuck with it is financial
    >
    > Vanilla is very expensive, DISQUS was free.
    >
    > The main attraction of Vanilla is that it is one of the few commenting platforms that doesn't insist on nested comments.

    It all seems to be working for me. Google chrome on Mac.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,770
    > @Theuniondivvie said:
    > Fatal stabbings at highest level since records began in 1946
    >
    > https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-47156957
    >
    > According to the stats presented, you are more likely to be murdered in the ghetto of North Warwickshire than London.
    >
    > Isn't the fact that gangsters are stabbing each other a good thing, because it shows that obtaining guns is too difficult to be worth the effort most of the time?
    >
    > I recall a 'Libertarian' Gibraltarian on here proposing that liberalised gun laws in the UK would reduce violent deaths. Unfortunately I can't remember if there was any logic offered for his thesis or he just felt it in his water.
    >
    > Turns out that, if you exclude the US, there's a surprisingly weak correlation between gun ownership and gun crime internationally.
    >
    > Conclusion: the biggest problem with gun crime in the US isn't guns, it's Americans.
    >
    > Aye, I think Canada has at least as high gun ownership as the US but obviously a fraction of the gun deaths. If the septics hadn't fetishised the 2nd Amendment, the frontier spirit, home defence & general gun toting manliness, they might be in with a chance of sorting it.
    >
    > But they have, so they're fcuked.

    Canada's level of gun ownership is one third that of the US:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimated_number_of_civilian_guns_per_capita_by_country
  • > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    > > @Stereotomy said:
    > > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    > > > > @Stereotomy said:
    > > > > Any chance of Mike starting a Patreon for this site and using the proceeds to pay for a better alternative to vanilla?
    > > >
    > > > I've informed the powers that be.
    > >
    > > But vanilla being crap isn't new information, right? I assumed the reason we're stuck with it is financial
    >
    > Vanilla is very expensive, DISQUS was free.
    >
    > The main attraction of Vanilla is that it is one of the few commenting platforms that doesn't insist on nested comments.

    Turn off comments and tell everyone to take it to twitter.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    > @gypsumfantastic said:
    > It would seem to be very unlikely to be selected, since it will be opposed by Labour and the government.

    Maybe a month too early. If we're still in stalemate six weeks from now, perhaps both might be willing to go for a 3-way referendum.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    > > @Stereotomy said:
    > > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    > > > > @Stereotomy said:
    > > > > Any chance of Mike starting a Patreon for this site and using the proceeds to pay for a better alternative to vanilla?
    > > >
    > > > I've informed the powers that be.
    > >
    > > But vanilla being crap isn't new information, right? I assumed the reason we're stuck with it is financial
    >
    > Vanilla is very expensive, DISQUS was free.
    >
    > The main attraction of Vanilla is that it is one of the few commenting platforms that doesn't insist on nested comments.
    This new update appears to be doing precisely that.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,770
    Hey guys, sorry about Vanilla. I'll hassle them now and see what's going on...
  • > @kinabalu said:
    > I have a very serious and heartfelt question for PBs who are both Tory and ardent Remainers, the likes of 'Screaming Eagles', 'Alastair Meeks', 'Topping, 'Nigel Formain' etc.
    >
    > It is -
    >
    > Assuming the hypothetical of a snap election pre-brexit - the Cons fighting under TM on her Deal - Labour under JC offering a dose of socialism but also a renegotiation with the EU followed by a Referendum (!) on their new Deal vs Remain -
    >
    > How do you vote?
    >
    > Does your desire to Remain in the EU trump your aversion to Red Jez as PM?

    How you gonna get Jezza to agree to that in his manifesto?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,342
    > @kinabalu said:
    > Clever from May if she has secured another extended period for continued 'talks' with the EU. Parliament can probably forget about that Valentine's Day vote.
    >
    > And further delay would no surprise whatsoever. All that matters to our tough-as-teak PM is keeping the deal alive and in play. She calculates that if it is still there at the death, with MPs having failed to oust her and vote bindingly instead for BINO or revoke/referendum, then TINA rules and it passes.
    >
    > Might not work (in which case general election) but then again it definitely maybe might. Certainly she has to follow this strategy. No point moaning and groaning at her. It makes perfect sense.


    Quite right IMO. If there was a clear agreed alternative you could attack the present position, but from where we are - including TMs mistakes but many more from others - no one seems to be articulating a better position. If I am wrong and it doesn't get through, it's hard not to see a single issue GE coming, even though that won't resolve it.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    > > @Stereotomy said:
    > > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    > > > > @Stereotomy said:
    > > > > Any chance of Mike starting a Patreon for this site and using the proceeds to pay for a better alternative to vanilla?
    > > >
    > > > I've informed the powers that be.
    > >
    > > But vanilla being crap isn't new information, right? I assumed the reason we're stuck with it is financial
    >
    > Vanilla is very expensive, DISQUS was free.
    >
    > The main attraction of Vanilla is that it is one of the few commenting platforms that doesn't insist on nested comments.

    Ah, I see, that does make sense.
  • > @rottenborough said:
    > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    > > > @Stereotomy said:
    > > > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    > > > > > @Stereotomy said:
    > > > > > Any chance of Mike starting a Patreon for this site and using the proceeds to pay for a better alternative to vanilla?
    > > > >
    > > > > I've informed the powers that be.
    > > >
    > > > But vanilla being crap isn't new information, right? I assumed the reason we're stuck with it is financial
    > >
    > > Vanilla is very expensive, DISQUS was free.
    > >
    > > The main attraction of Vanilla is that it is one of the few commenting platforms that doesn't insist on nested comments.
    >
    > It all seems to be working for me. Google chrome on Mac.

    Hmm. No longer working. I spoke too soon.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    edited February 2019
    BLAT.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    edited February 2019
    @gypsumfantastic said:
    > She'd have been better off staying in bed and binge watching Marie Kondo on Netflix.

    So one recent globalist development that will upset @CasinoRoyale when s/he works out the implications is that thanks to Netflix we finally have a single universal TV culture covering the entire broadband-connected globe.
  • > @rcs1000 said:
    > Hey guys, sorry about Vanilla. I'll hassle them now and see what's going on...

    Whomever did this upgrade at vanilla clearly likes pineapple on their pizzas.
  • > @edmundintokyo said:
    > @gypsumfantastic said:
    > > She'd have been better off staying in bed and binge watching Marie Kondo on Netflix.
    >
    > So one recent globalist development that will upset @CasinoRoyale when s/he works out the implications is that thanks to Netflix we finally have a single universal TV culture covering tge entire broadband-connected globe.

    Does BREXIT spark joy? Is BREXIT something I want to take forwards with me in my life?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2193945#Comment_2193945The EU is busy saying no change

    there is no point working up specific options until they accept that it’s change or no deal

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    > @rottenborough said> How you gonna get Jezza to agree to that in his manifesto?

    By telling him that if he does it he is going to be the next PM.
  • > @kinabalu said:
    > BLAT.

    Test.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    > @algarkirk said> Quite right IMO. If there was a clear agreed alternative you could attack the present position, but from where we are - including TMs mistakes but many more from others - no one seems to be articulating a better position. If I am wrong and it doesn't get through, it's hard not to see a single issue GE coming, even though that won't resolve it.
    >
    It COULD resolve it - depends on the outcome.
  • > @Charles said:
    > https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2193945#Comment_2193945
    > The EU is busy saying no change
    > there is no point working up specific options until they accept that it’s change or no deal
    >

    I think they have accepted that already, hence why the constant reiteration that Britain is the one that has to decide.

    If it decides to No Deal, the EU can't stop us. But we have to make that choice.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748
    edited February 2019
    > @rcs1000 said:
    > > @Theuniondivvie said:
    > > Fatal stabbings at highest level since records began in 1946
    > >
    > > https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-47156957
    > >
    > > According to the stats presented, you are more likely to be murdered in the ghetto of North Warwickshire than London.
    > >
    > > Isn't the fact that gangsters are stabbing each other a good thing, because it shows that obtaining guns is too difficult to be worth the effort most of the time?
    > >
    > > I recall a 'Libertarian' Gibraltarian on here proposing that liberalised gun laws in the UK would reduce violent deaths. Unfortunately I can't remember if there was any logic offered for his thesis or he just felt it in his water.
    > >
    > > Turns out that, if you exclude the US, there's a surprisingly weak correlation between gun ownership and gun crime internationally.
    > >
    > > Conclusion: the biggest problem with gun crime in the US isn't guns, it's Americans.
    > >
    > > Aye, I think Canada has at least as high gun ownership as the US but obviously a fraction of the gun deaths. If the septics hadn't fetishised the 2nd Amendment, the frontier spirit, home defence & general gun toting manliness, they might be in with a chance of sorting it.
    > >
    > > But they have, so they're fcuked.
    >
    > Canada's level of gun ownership is one third that of the US:
    >
    > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimated_number_of_civilian_guns_per_capita_by_country

    Hmm, I have a very pro gun Canadian pal who during a 'debate' on the subject offered Canada's similar levels of gun ownership as proof that guns were not bad per se. I shall have to be less trusting.

    I note that they have about a 6th of the gun deaths (proportionally) though, so obviously there is a different culture.
  • I like the old-school quoting, it's like email before they added the htmls
  • https://twitter.com/StewartWood/status/1093492764581478400
  • > @kinabalu said:
    > > @algarkirk said> Quite right IMO. If there was a clear agreed alternative you could attack the present position, but from where we are - including TMs mistakes but many more from others - no one seems to be articulating a better position. If I am wrong and it doesn't get through, it's hard not to see a single issue GE coming, even though that won't resolve it.
    > >
    > It COULD resolve it - depends on the outcome.

    Given the current electoral landscape, Labour's only route to a majority is via the SNP and Lib Dems. Cannot see them rowing behind a Lexiteer unicorn, somehow.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,770
    <blockquote>@TheScreamingEagles said:
    The main attraction of Vanilla is that it is one of the few commenting platforms that doesn't insist on nested comments.</blockquote>

    Absolutely correct. Disqus enforced threading, and it made the site rubbish.

    Vanilla is - I think - a small organization, and they occasionally f*ck up updates. But, by and large, they're pretty good.
  • > @edmundintokyo said:
    > I like the old-school quoting, it's like email before they added the htmls

    Well, Jezza is planning to take us all back to the 1970s.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880
    > @edmundintokyo said:
    > @gypsumfantastic said:
    > > She'd have been better off staying in bed and binge watching Marie Kondo on Netflix.
    >
    > So one recent globalist development that will upset @CasinoRoyale when s/he works out the implications is that thanks to Netflix we finally have a single universal TV culture covering the entire broadband-connected globe.

    He will just continue to watch episodes of Mind Your Language on his 18" Pye TV with pride.
  • > @gypsumfantastic said:
    > Vanilla is acting the spaz again.
    >
    > `JSON could not be converted into quill operations.`
    >
    > The DUP will crash her government onto the rocks before they let May blackmail them into supporting her deal.
    >
    > Also, imagine that May somehow succeeds in using blackmail and market chaos to "win" a MV. She then has to get all the enabling legislation through the very same exhauted and furious Parliament that she'd just been turning the thumb screws on.
    >
    > Winning the MV is only the first step. May then needs to deliver seven acts of Parliament. Without a majority.


    "acting the spaz". Seriously !!!!

    Do you know how offensive that is to UKIP supporters.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    edited February 2019
    > @rcs1000 said:
    > <blockquote>@TheScreamingEagles said:
    > The main attraction of Vanilla is that it is one of the few commenting platforms that doesn't insist on nested comments.</blockquote>
    >
    > Absolutely correct. Disqus enforced threading, and it made the site rubbish.
    >
    > Vanilla is - I think - a small organization, and they occasionally f*ck up updates. But, by and large, they're pretty good.

    I have been happy with it on here, other than the odd occasion when they screw up an update.

    But who amongst us can say they've never done that?
  • > @kinabalu said:
    > > @rottenborough said> How you gonna get Jezza to agree to that in his manifesto?
    >
    > By telling him that if he does it he is going to be the next PM.

    Surely the opposite statement i.e. he wont be the next PM would be more effective.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    edited February 2019
    > @gypsumfantastic said:
    > > @edmundintokyo said:
    > > @gypsumfantastic said:
    > > > She'd have been better off staying in bed and binge watching Marie Kondo on Netflix.
    > >
    > > So one recent globalist development that will upset @CasinoRoyale when s/he works out the implications is that thanks to Netflix we finally have a single universal TV culture covering tge entire broadband-connected globe.
    >
    > Does BREXIT spark joy? Is BREXIT something I want to take forwards with me in my life?

    What do you want to do with Brexit? Vote only once by putting a cross [ x ] next to your choice.
    [   ] Keep it
    [   ] Thank it, then discard it
  • @kinabalu I'm neither a Tory nor an ardent Remainer. I would vote Deal in a referendum between Remain and Deal. I would abstain in a referendum between Remain and No Deal.

    Britain is in a terrible terrible place right now. There are no good options from here.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723
    > @rottenborough said:
    > https://twitter.com/StewartWood/status/1093492764581478400

    Stewart who
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    > @SandyRentool said:
    > https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1093485026115833856
    >
    >
    >
    > So, guaranteed nothing will happen.
    >
    > Anyone who would contemplate leaving Labour over a second-order issue like the EU isn't a Moderate, they're a fanatic.

    Correct. What's more, they're an electorally doomed fanatic. People who think that (a) Remain is right (2) no compromise is worth considering (3) Labour even offering a compromise is so horrific that they must resign are a subset of a subset of a subset.

    On the upside, they may get to be led by Owen Smith.
This discussion has been closed.