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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A 2019 general election no longer favourite in the year of nex

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  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,963
    > @edmundintokyo said:
    > @gypsumfantastic said:
    > > She'd have been better off staying in bed and binge watching Marie Kondo on Netflix.
    >
    > So one recent globalist development that will upset @CasinoRoyale when s/he works out the implications is that thanks to Netflix we finally have a single universal TV culture covering the entire broadband-connected globe.

    Netflix doesn't insist I give my sovereignty over to Jean-Claude Juncker. Or I would cancel my subscription.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,778
    > @Theuniondivvie said:
    > > @rcs1000 said:
    > > > @Theuniondivvie said:
    > > > Fatal stabbings at highest level since records began in 1946
    > > >
    > > > https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-47156957
    > > >
    > > > According to the stats presented, you are more likely to be murdered in the ghetto of North Warwickshire than London.
    > > >
    > > > Isn't the fact that gangsters are stabbing each other a good thing, because it shows that obtaining guns is too difficult to be worth the effort most of the time?
    > > >
    > > > I recall a 'Libertarian' Gibraltarian on here proposing that liberalised gun laws in the UK would reduce violent deaths. Unfortunately I can't remember if there was any logic offered for his thesis or he just felt it in his water.
    > > >
    > > > Turns out that, if you exclude the US, there's a surprisingly weak correlation between gun ownership and gun crime internationally.
    > > >
    > > > Conclusion: the biggest problem with gun crime in the US isn't guns, it's Americans.
    > > >
    > > > Aye, I think Canada has at least as high gun ownership as the US but obviously a fraction of the gun deaths. If the septics hadn't fetishised the 2nd Amendment, the frontier spirit, home defence & general gun toting manliness, they might be in with a chance of sorting it.
    > > >
    > > > But they have, so they're fcuked.
    > >
    > > Canada's level of gun ownership is one third that of the US:
    > >
    > > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimated_number_of_civilian_guns_per_capita_by_country
    >
    > Hmm, I have a very pro gun Canadian pal who during a 'debate' on the subject offered Canada's similar levels of gun ownership as proof that guns were not bad per se. I shall have to be less trusting.
    >
    > I note that they have about a 6th of the gun deaths (proportionally) though, so obviously there is a different culture.

    I would guess - and this is just a guess - that places with:

    - high levels of gun ownership
    - dense urban environments
    - large rich/poor divides

    Would have the highest levels of gun deaths. A multiple linear regression would be interesting.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,861
    > @TheAncientMariner said:> Surely the opposite statement i.e. he wont be the next PM would be more effective.

    Well that is the call he would have to make - toughie.
  • > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > @kinabalu I'm neither a Tory nor an ardent Remainer. I would vote Deal in a referendum between Remain and Deal. I would abstain in a referendum between Remain and No Deal.
    >
    > Britain is in a terrible terrible place right now. There are no good options from here.

    It reminds me of the horse race on which legendary punter Mark Coton commented 'none of these is good enough to win, but something has to.' No outcome is good, but something has to happen.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    I wonder if May will go for the leg shown by Corbyn in his letter.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,778
    > @MarqueeMark said:
    > > @edmundintokyo said:
    > > @gypsumfantastic said:
    > > > She'd have been better off staying in bed and binge watching Marie Kondo on Netflix.
    > >
    > > So one recent globalist development that will upset @CasinoRoyale when s/he works out the implications is that thanks to Netflix we finally have a single universal TV culture covering the entire broadband-connected globe.
    >
    > Netflix doesn't insist I give my sovereignty over to Jean-Claude Juncker. Or I would cancel my subscription.

    I think that's @edmund's point: global platforms like Netflix make local content rules much harder to enforce.

    It means that British TV output is going to increasingly be tailored to what sells internationally, not just what is popular in the UK.

    If everyone in the world is watching the same TV shows, it means that cultures become more homogenised.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,861
    > @gypsumfantastic said:> Given the current electoral landscape, Labour's only route to a majority is via the SNP and Lib Dems. Cannot see them rowing behind a Lexiteer unicorn, somehow.

    But agreeing a BINO with the EU is not a unicorn. And if he offers a Ref on top, I reckon the SNP and the LDs would give him the keys.

    Any case, this is no good - can't follow the chat.

    Pub.
  • > @NickPalmer said:
    > > @SandyRentool said:
    > > https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1093485026115833856
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > So, guaranteed nothing will happen.
    > >
    > > Anyone who would contemplate leaving Labour over a second-order issue like the EU isn't a Moderate, they're a fanatic.
    >
    > Correct. What's more, they're an electorally doomed fanatic. People who think that (a) Remain is right (2) no compromise is worth considering (3) Labour even offering a compromise is so horrific that they must resign are a subset of a subset of a subset.
    >
    > On the upside, they may get to be led by Owen Smith.

    Are you sure that is right? It seems to me that the proportion of Labour MPs and activists who think that the only acceptable Brexit is a cancelled Brexit is not insignificant.
  • > @rottenborough said:
    > > @edmundintokyo said:
    > > I like the old-school quoting, it's like email before they added the htmls
    >
    > Well, Jezza is planning to take us all back to the 1970s.

    One of the more optimistic forecasts I've heard, Rotten. So if Brexit takes us back to the 1950's, Jez will whizz us forward to the 1970's.

    Right now, I'd take that.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    > @NickPalmer said:
    > > @SandyRentool said:
    > > https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1093485026115833856
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > So, guaranteed nothing will happen.
    > >
    > > Anyone who would contemplate leaving Labour over a second-order issue like the EU isn't a Moderate, they're a fanatic.
    >
    > Correct. What's more, they're an electorally doomed fanatic. People who think that (a) Remain is right (2) no compromise is worth considering (3) Labour even offering a compromise is so horrific that they must resign are a subset of a subset of a subset.
    >
    > On the upside, they may get to be led by Owen Smith.

    They might even scale the dizzy heights of 5% in the polls.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,557
    edited February 2019
    > @Theuniondivvie said:

    >
    > I note that they have about a 6th of the gun deaths (proportionally) though, so obviously there is a different culture.

    Canada is also much less ethnically diverse than the United States. Black men are far more likely to be victims of gun violence than white men (29.12 homicides per 100,000 for black men vs. 2.1 for white men).

    https://edition.cnn.com/2018/04/23/health/gun-deaths-in-men-by-state-study/index.html

    Interestingly, according to wikipedia, "Blacks account for the majority of gun homicide victims/arestees in the US while whites account for the vast majority of non-gun homicide victims/arrestees"

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Race_and_crime_in_the_United_States
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,429

    https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2194121#Comment_2194121Robert, I think that you can change the theme for vanilla forums. Would that solve our problems?

  • > @rcs1000 said:
    >
    > I would guess - and this is just a guess - that places with:
    >
    > - high levels of gun ownership
    > - dense urban environments
    > - large rich/poor divides
    >
    > Would have the highest levels of gun deaths. A multiple linear regression would be interesting.

    It must also depend on factors such as how strict the ownership rules are on things like storage and excluding high-risk people from obtaining guns, and also on the types of gun available.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    > @Richard_Nabavi said:
    > > @NickPalmer said:
    > > > @SandyRentool said:
    > > > https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1093485026115833856
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > So, guaranteed nothing will happen.
    > > >
    > > > Anyone who would contemplate leaving Labour over a second-order issue like the EU isn't a Moderate, they're a fanatic.
    > >
    > > Correct. What's more, they're an electorally doomed fanatic. People who think that (a) Remain is right (2) no compromise is worth considering (3) Labour even offering a compromise is so horrific that they must resign are a subset of a subset of a subset.
    > >
    > > On the upside, they may get to be led by Owen Smith.
    >
    > Are you sure that is right? It seems to me that the proportion of Labour MPs and activists who think that the only acceptable Brexit is a cancelled Brexit is not insignificant.

    Probably true, but the proportion who think that it’s a plausible political position to advocate right now, rather than something to hope for once all other avenues have been exhausted is quite a bit smaller. Cancellation is less likely if campaigned for now.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,861
    > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > @kinabalu I'm neither a Tory nor an ardent Remainer. I would vote Deal in a referendum between Remain and Deal. I would abstain in a referendum between Remain and No Deal.
    >
    > Britain is in a terrible terrible place right now. There are no good options from here.

    Ah ok sorry. Yes, I would probably do same as you in a Ref.

    But in order to get to the Ref, if JC was offering it, and that was the only route to it, would you vote for him over TM in a GE?
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > @kinabalu I'm neither a Tory nor an ardent Remainer. I would vote Deal in a referendum between Remain and Deal. I would abstain in a referendum between Remain and No Deal.
    >
    > Britain is in a terrible terrible place right now. There are no good options from here.

    There are but they destroy May.

    I don't know what Corbyn's now playing at. It could backfire.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    > @rcs1000 said:
    > <blockquote>@TheScreamingEagles said:
    > The main attraction of Vanilla is that it is one of the few commenting platforms that doesn't insist on nested comments.</blockquote>
    >
    > Absolutely correct. Disqus enforced threading, and it made the site rubbish.
    >
    > Vanilla is - I think - a small organization, and they occasionally f*ck up updates. But, by and large, they're pretty good.
    Hi Robert,
    Please shout if you/they need a hand with UX testing. Happy to give a couple of hours over the weekend...
  • On topic, the markets are wrong. This year should still be favourite. Far too many uncertainties around Brexit that could result in one.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    > @MarqueeMark said:
    > > @edmundintokyo said:
    > > @gypsumfantastic said:
    > > > She'd have been better off staying in bed and binge watching Marie Kondo on Netflix.
    > >
    > > So one recent globalist development that will upset @CasinoRoyale when s/he works out the implications is that thanks to Netflix we finally have a single universal TV culture covering the entire broadband-connected globe.
    >
    > Netflix doesn't insist I give my sovereignty over to Jean-Claude Juncker. Or I would cancel my subscription.

    As part of the TTIP negotiations one of the EU's inputs, driven by the French was that the US content providers had to have a certain percentage of French language content. I am sure that all the other national film industries would also have piled in if that had been successful.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,963
    > @rcs1000 said:
    > > @MarqueeMark said:
    > > > @edmundintokyo said:
    > > > @gypsumfantastic said:
    > > > > She'd have been better off staying in bed and binge watching Marie Kondo on Netflix.
    > > >
    > > > So one recent globalist development that will upset @CasinoRoyale when s/he works out the implications is that thanks to Netflix we finally have a single universal TV culture covering the entire broadband-connected globe.
    > >
    > > Netflix doesn't insist I give my sovereignty over to Jean-Claude Juncker. Or I would cancel my subscription.
    >
    > I think that's @edmund's point: global platforms like Netflix make local content rules much harder to enforce.
    >
    > It means that British TV output is going to increasingly be tailored to what sells internationally, not just what is popular in the UK.
    >
    > If everyone in the world is watching the same TV shows, it means that cultures become more homogenised.

    But World TV has always been homogenised. Huge amounts of UK TV content for the past sixty years or more has come from the US, with weird little bits of additional content from Eastern Europe (The Singing Ringing Tree, anyone?) and Scandi-Noir.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,756
    edited February 2019
    <blockquote class="Quote" rel="rcs1000">

    > @rcs1000 said:
    > > @Theuniondivvie said:
    > > > @rcs1000 said:
    > > > > @Theuniondivvie said:
    > > > > Fatal stabbings at highest level since records began in 1946
    > > > >
    > > > > https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-47156957
    > > > >
    > > > > According to the stats presented, you are more likely to be murdered in the ghetto of North Warwickshire than London.
    > > > >
    > > > > Isn't the fact that gangsters are stabbing each other a good thing, because it shows that obtaining guns is too difficult to be worth the effort most of the time?
    > > > >
    > > > > I recall a 'Libertarian' Gibraltarian on here proposing that liberalised gun laws in the UK would reduce violent deaths. Unfortunately I can't remember if there was any logic offered for his thesis or he just felt it in his water.
    > > > >
    > > > > Turns out that, if you exclude the US, there's a surprisingly weak correlation between gun ownership and gun crime internationally.
    > > > >
    > > > > Conclusion: the biggest problem with gun crime in the US isn't guns, it's Americans.
    > > > >
    > > > > Aye, I think Canada has at least as high gun ownership as the US but obviously a fraction of the gun deaths. If the septics hadn't fetishised the 2nd Amendment, the frontier spirit, home defence & general gun toting manliness, they might be in with a chance of sorting it.
    > > > >
    > > > > But they have, so they're fcuked.
    > > >
    > > > Canada's level of gun ownership is one third that of the US:
    > > >
    > > > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimated_number_of_civilian_guns_per_capita_by_country
    > >
    > > Hmm, I have a very pro gun Canadian pal who during a 'debate' on the subject offered Canada's similar levels of gun ownership as proof that guns were not bad per se. I shall have to be less trusting.
    > >
    > > I note that they have about a 6th of the gun deaths (proportionally) though, so obviously there is a different culture.
    >
    > I would guess - and this is just a guess - that places with:
    >
    > - high levels of gun ownership
    > - dense urban environments
    > - large rich/poor divides
    >
    > Would have the highest levels of gun deaths. A multiple linear regression would be interesting.</blockquote>

    Jeezo, just looking at those Wiki tables again, the US has 1,073,743 registered and 392,273,257 unregistered firearms. That genie aint ever going back in the bottle.

    (Just trying the old quote system to see what happens)
    edit: bugger all it appears
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758


    https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2194072#Comment_2194072The disturbing thing is I have no idea if that is real or an @Sean_F parody!

  • > @kinabalu said:
    > > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > > @kinabalu I'm neither a Tory nor an ardent Remainer. I would vote Deal in a referendum between Remain and Deal. I would abstain in a referendum between Remain and No Deal.
    > >
    > > Britain is in a terrible terrible place right now. There are no good options from here.
    >
    > Ah ok sorry. Yes, I would probably do same as you in a Ref.
    >
    > But in order to get to the Ref, if JC was offering it, and that was the only route to it, would you vote for him over TM in a GE?

    No. I would much prefer to see Parliament sort the matter out itself. A referendum is not something I desire but something I see as likely. A referendum would be an admission by Parliament that it could not do the job that it was required of it, to agree a method of implementing Brexit.

    There's not much sign of any resolution just yet. A referendum to me still looks likely, whatever the party leaders might want. The absence of any will to compromise makes it an easy way out for everyone.

    In a general election, I would probably abstain. The only thing that might persuade me not to is that my MP is now Bernard Jenkin and the idea of a tactical vote against that muppet is hugely tempting.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,265
    > @Polruan said:
    > > @Richard_Nabavi said:

    > > Are you sure that is right? It seems to me that the proportion of Labour MPs and activists who think that the only acceptable Brexit is a cancelled Brexit is not insignificant.
    >
    > Probably true, but the proportion who think that it’s a plausible political position to advocate right now, rather than something to hope for once all other avenues have been exhausted is quite a bit smaller. Cancellation is less likely if campaigned for now.

    Agreed. Also, I think Corbyn's offer today would have been harder to make 3 months ago. If it's followed up by "In view of TM's refusal to agree to a viable Brexit strategy, we now call for a referendum" will have a credibility that it wouldn't have had if he'd not made a reasonable offer first.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited February 2019
    Me looking at the current state of Vanilla comments,

    <img src="https://www.edvardmunch.org/images/paintings/the-scream.jpg" />
  • Argh. Mine eyes, mine eyes.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,237
    > @SandyRentool said:
    > https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1093485026115833856
    >
    >
    >
    > So, guaranteed nothing will happen.
    >
    > Anyone who would contemplate leaving Labour over a second-order issue like the EU isn't a Moderate, they're a fanatic.

    If leaving the EU is a second-order issue, why does PB spend all day every day talking about it?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,778
    > @MarqueeMark said:
    > > @rcs1000 said:
    > > > @MarqueeMark said:
    > > > > @edmundintokyo said:
    > > > > @gypsumfantastic said:
    > > > > > She'd have been better off staying in bed and binge watching Marie Kondo on Netflix.
    > > > >
    > > > > So one recent globalist development that will upset @CasinoRoyale when s/he works out the implications is that thanks to Netflix we finally have a single universal TV culture covering the entire broadband-connected globe.
    > > >
    > > > Netflix doesn't insist I give my sovereignty over to Jean-Claude Juncker. Or I would cancel my subscription.
    > >
    > > I think that's @edmund's point: global platforms like Netflix make local content rules much harder to enforce.
    > >
    > > It means that British TV output is going to increasingly be tailored to what sells internationally, not just what is popular in the UK.
    > >
    > > If everyone in the world is watching the same TV shows, it means that cultures become more homogenised.
    >
    > But World TV has always been homogenised. Huge amounts of UK TV content for the past sixty years or more has come from the US, with weird little bits of additional content from Eastern Europe (The Singing Ringing Tree, anyone?) and Scandi-Noir.

    Sure, we've had Neighbours and Starsky & Hutch and Cagney & Lacey for a long time.

    But that masks the fact that in the mid 1990s, 80+% of what was watched in the UK was domestically produced, and now it's more like 50%. That hasn't meant less UK TV production, it's meant that UK producers are selling globally, and so's everyone else.

    In the old days, dubbing into foreign languages was something you'd only do with popular shows if they got a foreign buyer. Now, even niche shows are being dubbed right at the start of the production process. Media globalisation continues to happen, and it means there will probably be fewer peculiarly English shows.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    > @FrancisUrquhart said:
    > Me looking at the current state of Vanilla comments,
    >
    > <img>https://www.edvardmunch.org/images/paintings/the-scream.jpg</img>

    We need a judge-led inquiry.
  • > @david_herdson said:
    > On topic, the markets are wrong. This year should still be favourite. Far too many uncertainties around Brexit that could result in one.

    That's my view too David, so will you please not repeat it here. You spoil the odds.
  • > @david_herdson said:
    > On topic, the markets are wrong. This year should still be favourite. Far too many uncertainties around Brexit that could result in one.

    I agree. A summer GE could yet be the price of a cross-party deal to get Brexit through (with a Tory leadership election quite possibly thrown in...)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    edited February 2019
    > @FrancisUrquhart said:
    > Me looking at the current state of Vanilla comments,
    >
    > <img>https://www.edvardmunch.org/images/paintings/the-scream.jpg</img>

    There are no issues with Vanilla Forums...

    https://i.imgur.com/4uGXKGU.jpg
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    >
    >>
    >>>
    >>>>
    >>>>>>>
    >>.>>
    >>>
    >>>>>>>>>>.>><<<<<<><<>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>><<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
    ><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>
    >>>>>>>>>>>>>
    >>
    >>
    >
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    https://twitter.com/markurban01/status/1093500294137368576?s=21
  • > @Tissue_Price said:
    > > @david_herdson said:
    > > On topic, the markets are wrong. This year should still be favourite. Far too many uncertainties around Brexit that could result in one.
    >
    > I agree. A summer GE could yet be the price of a cross-party deal to get Brexit through (with a Tory leadership election quite possibly thrown in...)

    Stfu, Tissue! How's a Punter supposed to make a dishonest buck? ;-)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    @Pulpstar - post of the year?
  • > @tlg86 said:
    > > @FrancisUrquhart said:
    > > Me looking at the current state of Vanilla comments,
    > >
    > > <img>https://www.edvardmunch.org/images/paintings/the-scream.jpg</img>
    >
    > We need a judge-led inquiry.

    We really haven't had enough of those recently have we?
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    edited February 2019
    grrr can't post tweets at the moment
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,776
    > @Richard_Nabavi said:
    > > @rcs1000 said:
    > >
    > > I would guess - and this is just a guess - that places with:
    > >
    > > - high levels of gun ownership
    > > - dense urban environments
    > > - large rich/poor divides
    > >
    > > Would have the highest levels of gun deaths. A multiple linear regression would be interesting.
    >
    > It must also depend on factors such as how strict the ownership rules are on things like storage and excluding high-risk people from obtaining guns, and also on the types of gun available.

    Yes. I doubt if there are many problems with high levels of ownership of shotguns. Assault rifles are a different matter.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,095
    > @NickPalmer said:
    > > @Polruan said:
    > > > @Richard_Nabavi said:
    >
    > > > Are you sure that is right? It seems to me that the proportion of Labour MPs and activists who think that the only acceptable Brexit is a cancelled Brexit is not insignificant.
    > >
    > > Probably true, but the proportion who think that it’s a plausible political position to advocate right now, rather than something to hope for once all other avenues have been exhausted is quite a bit smaller. Cancellation is less likely if campaigned for now.
    >
    > Agreed. Also, I think Corbyn's offer today would have been harder to make 3 months ago. If it's followed up by "In view of TM's refusal to agree to a viable Brexit strategy, we now call for a referendum" will have a credibility that it wouldn't have had if he'd not made a reasonable offer first.

    The chance May won't put her party first appear minuscule. So Labour isn't risking that much and has better optics than months of sitting on the fence. Doubtless its falling ratings compelled Corbyn to act.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited February 2019
    > @Peter_the_Punter said:
    > Stfu, Tissue! How's a Punter supposed to make a dishonest buck? ;-)

    I apologise; I hadn't seen your post. But to answer your question: usually by thinking like a contrarian, but making sure that that process doesn't always lead you to oppose the market's momentum.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,237
    > @Sean_F said:
    > Sammy Wilson has just described the European Commission as a "cesspit, bubbling with hellfire". He added that Tusk "sucks worms from the devil's anus."

    Brexit has no concept of satire. Is that a real quote? Given the normal tone of Norn Iron politics, it's not impossible?
  • > @RobD said:
    > @Pulpstar - post of the year?

    Greater than many.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited February 2019
    > @Theuniondivvie said:
    > <blockquote class="Quote" rel="rcs1000">
    > > @rcs1000 said:
    > > I would guess - and this is just a guess - that places with:
    > >
    > > - high levels of gun ownership
    > > - dense urban environments
    > > - large rich/poor divides
    > >
    > > Would have the highest levels of gun deaths. A multiple linear regression would be interesting.</blockquote>
    >
    > Jeezo, just looking at those Wiki tables again, the US has 1,073,743 registered and 392,273,257 unregistered firearms. That genie aint ever going back in the bottle.
    >
    > (Just trying the old quote system to see what happens)
    > edit: bugger all it appears
    One licenced gun for every 300 Americans, that can't be right?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    > @Pulpstar said:
    > >
    > >>
    > >>>
    > >>>>
    > >>>>>>>
    > >>.>>
    > >>>
    > >>>>>>>>>>.>><<<<<<><<>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
    > >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>><<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
    > ><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>
    > >>>>>>>>>>>>>
    > >>
    > >>
    > >
    >
    >
    >

    Can I quote you on that?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,778
    > @Sandpit said:
    > > @Theuniondivvie said:
    > > <blockquote class="Quote" rel="rcs1000">
    > > > @rcs1000 said:
    > > > I would guess - and this is just a guess - that places with:
    > > >
    > > > - high levels of gun ownership
    > > > - dense urban environments
    > > > - large rich/poor divides
    > > >
    > > > Would have the highest levels of gun deaths. A multiple linear regression would be interesting.</blockquote>
    > >
    > > Jeezo, just looking at those Wiki tables again, the US has 1,073,743 registered and 392,273,257 unregistered firearms. That genie aint ever going back in the bottle.
    > >
    > > (Just trying the old quote system to see what happens)
    > > edit: bugger all it appears
    > One licenced gun for every 300 Americans, that can't be right?

    You don't have to register gun ownership in the US, so it sounds perfectly reasonable.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Paris has taken the extraordinary step of recalling its ambassador from Rome in the worst crisis between neighbouring France and Italy since the second world war.
    France blamed what it called called baseless and repeated verbal attacks from Italy’s political leaders which it said were “without precedent since world war two.”
    In a statement, the French foreign office said: “For several months, France has been the target of repeated, baseless attacks and outrageous statements.”"

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/07/france-italy-ambassador-macron-di-maio-salvini-second-world-war
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    > @IanB2 said:
    > > @NickPalmer said:
    > > > @Polruan said:
    > > > > @Richard_Nabavi said:
    > >
    > > > > Are you sure that is right? It seems to me that the proportion of Labour MPs and activists who think that the only acceptable Brexit is a cancelled Brexit is not insignificant.
    > > >
    > > > Probably true, but the proportion who think that it’s a plausible political position to advocate right now, rather than something to hope for once all other avenues have been exhausted is quite a bit smaller. Cancellation is less likely if campaigned for now.
    > >
    > > Agreed. Also, I think Corbyn's offer today would have been harder to make 3 months ago. If it's followed up by "In view of TM's refusal to agree to a viable Brexit strategy, we now call for a referendum" will have a credibility that it wouldn't have had if he'd not made a reasonable offer first.
    >
    > The chance May won't put her party first appear minuscule. So Labour isn't risking that much and has better optics than months of sitting on the fence. Doubtless its falling ratings compelled Corbyn to act.

    Yes, as much as some commentators think people are going off Corbyn because he's not opposing the government on Brexit enough, in my experience people are more irritated that he's opposing them too much and not "working with Theresa May", hence the letter.

    That said, as the Lib Dems found out, people might say they want the big parties to "work together", but that doesn't necessarily mean people will thank them if they actually do it...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    edited February 2019
    France has recalled its ambassador to Italy.
  • > @Tissue_Price said:
    > > @Peter_the_Punter said:
    > > Stfu, Tissue! How's a Punter supposed to make a dishonest buck? ;-)
    >
    > I apologise; I hadn't seen your post. But to answer your question: usually by thinking like a contrarian, but making sure that that process doesn't always lead you to oppose the market's momentum.

    Lol! Joking, of course, as you rightly figured. Of course I agree about contrarian thinking. Unfortunately, when it comes to Brexit, all views are contrarian.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 948
    > @algarkirk said:
    > Today's developments suggest that as long as TM can find a way of helping the Labour party not to have its hands too much in the gore she will get home and dry on the WA with either Labour assistance or (more likely) enough absence of non-assistance, which will be just as good.
    >
    > People are forgetting all the time that to deliver abolition of FoM and also to keep big commerce, industry and agriculture more or less onside looks and seems impossible. She is not far off actually doing it. It's very messy and I would much prefer 'Norway for Now' but this will do.
    >
    > It is tempting fate to wonder what happens to party politics afterwards...…..foresight fails.

    Surely May isn't stupid enough to fall for this. If she passes her WA with Labour votes, unless it's acceptable to the DUP, she gets no-confidenced the following morning, and Corbin gets his election.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,237
    > @rcs1000 said:...The Singing Ringing Tree, anyone?....

    The White Horses. The Flashing Blade. The Aeronauts. That red balloon thing I can't remember. Kids telly used to be really European. Nowadays Gauleiter Witherspoon would come round your house and wipe his shitty leg on your dog if you tried to watch it.
  • > @Peter_the_Punter said:
    > > @david_herdson said:
    > > On topic, the markets are wrong. This year should still be favourite. Far too many uncertainties around Brexit that could result in one.
    >
    > That's my view too David, so will you please not repeat it here. You spoil the odds.

    I suggest you place bets before my weekend piece then.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,237
    > @rcs1000 said:
    > > @Sandpit said:
    > > > @Theuniondivvie said:
    > > > <blockquote class="Quote" rel="rcs1000">
    > > > > @rcs1000 said:
    > > > > I would guess - and this is just a guess - that places with:
    > > > >
    > > > > - high levels of gun ownership
    > > > > - dense urban environments
    > > > > - large rich/poor divides
    > > > >
    > > > > Would have the highest levels of gun deaths. A multiple linear regression would be interesting.</blockquote>
    > > >
    > > > Jeezo, just looking at those Wiki tables again, the US has 1,073,743 registered and 392,273,257 unregistered firearms. That genie aint ever going back in the bottle.
    > > >
    > > > (Just trying the old quote system to see what happens)
    > > > edit: bugger all it appears
    > > One licenced gun for every 300 Americans, that can't be right?
    >
    > You don't have to register gun ownership in the US, so it sounds perfectly reasonable.

    Yes, but purchasing a gun and associated items in America is not bureaucracy free (except arguably in states like Arizona, Alaska and Florida), and in the more restrictive states it's even harder. People who live in California, one of the more restricted states, are even more constrained.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    > @NickPalmer said:
    > Correct. What's more, they're an electorally doomed fanatic. People who think that (a) Remain is right (2) no compromise is worth considering (3) Labour even offering a compromise is so horrific that they must resign are a subset of a subset of a subset.

    The only problem with that is that the "subset of a subset of a subset" is otherwise known as "London".

    Still, nice to see Theresa has taken some time out of her busy schedule ----ing up Brexit to ----up Vanilla instead.
  • <i>Senior EU officials also doubt the sincerity of Labour’s offer to the prime minister, fearing it is an attempt to weaken May’s hopes of getting a deal through parliament. One official said: “It is a shame that we have this perfect storm: a lousy government and an even lousier official opposition”.</i>

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/07/brexit-government-willing-to-discuss-corbyns-terms-but-umunna-calls-foul
  • > @david_herdson said:
    > > @Peter_the_Punter said:
    > > > @david_herdson said:
    > > > On topic, the markets are wrong. This year should still be favourite. Far too many uncertainties around Brexit that could result in one.
    > >
    > > That's my view too David, so will you please not repeat it here. You spoil the odds.
    >
    > I suggest you place bets before my weekend piece then.

    Thanks, David. And let's keep it to ourselves until then. ;-)
  • > @NickPalmer said:
    > > @Polruan said:
    > > > @Richard_Nabavi said:
    >
    > > > Are you sure that is right? It seems to me that the proportion of Labour MPs and activists who think that the only acceptable Brexit is a cancelled Brexit is not insignificant.
    > >
    > > Probably true, but the proportion who think that it’s a plausible political position to advocate right now, rather than something to hope for once all other avenues have been exhausted is quite a bit smaller. Cancellation is less likely if campaigned for now.
    >
    > Agreed. Also, I think Corbyn's offer today would have been harder to make 3 months ago. If it's followed up by "In view of TM's refusal to agree to a viable Brexit strategy, we now call for a referendum" will have a credibility that it wouldn't have had if he'd not made a reasonable offer first.

    It is increasingly about political positioning and which party best survives the turmoil of the endgame.

    We have a PM who is determined not to deliver Brexit in any meaningful form provided that she can maintain the appearance of having delivered Brexit, and who to that end is prepared to settle for a vassal state agreement that permanently compromises our national interests and integrity.

    We have an opposition whose MPs are by and large determined to derail Brexit whilst avoiding any accusation that they had anything to do with that outcome.

    We also have a leader of the opposition is quite prepared to deliver a meaningful Brexit provided that he is seen by his party and the Remain-supporting electorate not to have played any part in facilitating that outcome. Although he would probably settle for the outcome favoured by his MPs if that is what it took to make him PM.

    Such is the extent of the duplicity in UK politics today.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    > @Pulpstar said:
    > >
    > >>
    > >>>
    > >>>>
    > >>>>>>>
    > >>.>>
    > >>>
    > >>>>>>>>>>.>><<<<<<><<>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
    > >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>><<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
    > ><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>
    > >>>>>>>>>>>>>
    > >>
    > >>
    > >
    >
    >
    >

    One of your better posts. :)
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,785
    > @algarkirk said:
    > Today's developments suggest that as long as TM can find a way of helping the Labour party not to have its hands too much in the gore she will get home and dry on the WA with either Labour assistance or (more likely) enough absence of non-assistance, which will be just as good.
    >
    > People are forgetting all the time that to deliver abolition of FoM and also to keep big commerce, industry and agriculture more or less onside looks and seems impossible. She is not far off actually doing it. It's very messy and I would much prefer 'Norway for Now' but this will do.
    >
    > It is tempting fate to wonder what happens to party politics afterwards...…..foresight fails.

    Good post.
    But also the last post I can see before Vanilla quotes fully died, and with a final sentence of 'tempting fate' and 'foresight fails'

    I definitely say, let's blame Algarkirk. Smiley face.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Just how many wonderous rich posts are we missing with New Vanilla? :D

    http://i.imgur.com/AZTW4Jo.jpg

  • Good afternoon, everyone.

    The input box has changed, I see. As has the status of the French ambassador to Italy.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Morris_Dancer - you see, unnecessary change is bad. That’s why I’m a Tory.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited February 2019

    Meanwhile do we think Cheltenham is at risk on account of this outbreak of equine flu?

  • https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2194178#Comment_2194178He's probably sick of all the Ferrero Rochers, which are after all an Italian invention.

  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,351
    Just commenting on theProle (post 29 at 1.40pm) as I can't quote it - the system seems to be already in no deal Brexit meltdown - Perhaps it is soon that we discover whether TM is a politician or a statesman (stateswoman?). Country or party?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,785
    Test
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Three more rich posts that I’m missing. I can only assume they were the most profitable betting tips posted here to date.

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    Bring on the house price crash:

    https://order-order.com/2019/02/07/government-trying-sneak-death-tax-stealth/
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,778
    Hmmm. Vanilla claim to have solved the problem.

    But now the "quote" button isn't working for me :-(
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    Bring on the house price crash (from Guido):

    The Government are laying a statutory instrument today which will increase the ‘probate’ fees – which families have to pay when administering someone’s estate after they die – from £215 up to a potential £6,000. The minimum “fee” is now £250, which shoots up to £2,500 for estates over £500,000, £4,000 over £1 million and £6,000 over £2 million
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,590
    Has Grayling been poached by Vanilla by any chance ?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited February 2019


    Was Robert's most recent "Error rendering" post cancelling the vanilla contract?

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,590
    edited February 2019

    Grayling ?

    Has he been poached by Vanilla ?

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,778
    Hello!
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    "there was an error rendering this rich post"
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,778
    [{"insert":"Sigh.\nIt seems that Vanilla's editor on the main\/WordPress site is now not generating comments that are in the correct format.\nI've emailed them again.\n"}]
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Sod's law will dictate that in all those missing errorrenderingblahblah posts, there was a 500/1 winner.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,590
    'Vanilla's editor'

    Is it Grayling, then ?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725
    One law for the rich posts and ......
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,963

    Nigelb said:

    'Vanilla's editor'

    Is it Grayling, then ?



    Another of George Osborne's many jobs?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    TOPPING- Quite an impact in whether or not UK funding will replace EU funding. Haven’t heard too much about the governments plans in my area, but am somewhat dependent on funding from governments/private foundations. 
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    RobD said:
    TOPPING- Quite an impact in whether or not UK funding will replace EU funding. Haven’t heard too much about the governments plans in my area, but am somewhat dependent on funding from governments/private foundations. 
    So the only possible change will be one for the worse.

    Brexit in a nutshell.
  • Vanilla bean fixed?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    TOPPING- not necessarily. Depends on what the focus will be. It could be different from the EU’s, it could also be the same. 
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    OH NO IT'S WORSE THAN WE THOUGHT

    Vanilla malware has now inserted a patchwork of Radiohead album covers into our site administrator's icon.
  • Hmm. Input box looks a little tidier.

    Politics still looks a mess, though.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725
    Topping on Vanilla!!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    RobD said:
    TOPPING- not necessarily. Depends on what the focus will be. It could be different from the EU’s, it could also be the same. 
    Yep sounds really positive.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Hmm. Input box looks a little tidier.

    Politics still looks a mess, though.
    Morris you have had the last laugh here having eschewed quoting all along. 
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,778
    Yay!

    All working
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    It seems Putin's cyber hackers have infiltrated PB.

    Is nothing sacred?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,778
    Sigh
This discussion has been closed.