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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters start backing O’Rourke again after he tells Oprah he’l

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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,860

    Sean_F said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Interesting news from Brussels - the EU says Labour’s policy could offer a route out of the impasse. Permanent Customs Union would be a gigantic relief for our business, and many others.

    Let’s do it.

    Tusk saying that has probably just reduced its chances.
    The more palatable) and it makes it onto the statute book, or Parliament continues to decline to vote for it and No Deal happens. Where does the necessary majority of votes come from for anything else?
    She doesn't need a majority to revoke.
    I think she does.

    But even if she did not, why would she?
    Does she, Sean? I don't think so. She could just write a letter, no?

    Why would she? Well, if I were in her shoes and I had to make the dreadful choice between No Deal or Revoke, I'd choose the latter. Marginal choice, it's true, but on balance I'd figure the long-term damage to the Country, Party and my own reputation would be less.

    I know you don't share that view, and you are by no means alone, but I'm trying to look at impartially. From a betting viewpoint, I'd certainly think that option should be less the 7/1 currnetly available.
    That's confirmation bias, Peter, based on what you want to happen.
    It's not value.
    I'm not trying to trick you into a bet here, and I wouldn't bet on this one anyway. Too many imponderables. But if it were such a two-horse race, I know what my odds would be. You want to tell me yours, or shall I go first?
    One thing we're already starting to see is Brexiteers proposing revocation as a way to escape the 'trap' of Article 50. With the right framing, it could be surprisingly popular across the spectrum.
    Frankly, William, I think we are in deep shit whatever we do now. I certainly don't think Revoke is an easy answer, whatever side of the divide one might be on.
    The EU could probably end this now by putting Cameron's deal back on the table in a draft treaty with a promise to look at reform of free movement in future, with some political guidelines appended to it, and to say all sides had learned lessons from this.

    But, that's never going to happen. They're far too myopic and inflexible.

    We could get #CorbynsCustomsUnion through Parliament But, that's never going to happen. TM is far too myopic and inflexible.
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    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Interesting news from Brussels - the EU says Labour’s policy could offer a route out of the impasse. Permanent Customs Union would be a gigantic relief for our business, and many others.

    Let’s do it.

    Tusk saying that has probably just reduced its chances.
    The more palatable) and it makes it onto the statute book, or Parliament continues to decline to vote for it and No Deal happens. Where does the necessary majority of votes come from for anything else?
    She doesn't need a majority to revoke.
    I think she does.

    But even if she did not, why would she?
    Does she, Sean? I don't think so. She could just write a letter, no?

    Why would she? Well, if I were in her shoes and I had to make the dreadful choice between No Deal or Revoke, I'd choose the latter. Marginal choice, it's true, but on balance I'd figure the long-term damage to the Country, Party and my own reputation would be less.

    I know you don't share that view, and you are by no means alone, but I'm trying to look at impartially. From a betting viewpoint, I'd certainly think that option should be less the 7/1 currnetly available.
    That's confirmation bias, Peter, based on what you want to happen.
    It's not value.
    I'm not trying to trick you into a bet here, and I wouldn't bet on this one anyway. Too many imponderables. But if it were such a two-horse race, I know what my odds would be. You want to tell me yours, or shall I go first?
    One thing we're already starting to see is Brexiteers proposing revocation as a way to escape the 'trap' of Article 50. With the right framing, it could be surprisingly popular across the spectrum.
    Frankly, William, I think we are in deep shit whatever we do now. I certainly don't think Revoke is an easy answer, whatever side of the divide one might be on.
    The EU could probably end this now by putting Cameron's deal back on the table in a draft treaty with a promise to look at reform of free movement in future, with some political guidelines appended to it, and to say all sides had learned lessons from this.

    But, that's never going to happen. They're far too myopic and inflexible.
    Perhaps we should have a #peoplesvote on it :)
    The EU aren't proposing it.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,242
    Endillion said:

    Scott_P said:
    That's deeply misleading. I'm sure she'd welcome Juncker's resignation at this, er, juncture.
    By the way, @Roger, on that subject, you ask me where I got my information re Selmayr.

    It was here:

    https://www.ombudsman.europa.eu/en/recommendation/en/102651

    When last I checked, this wasn't an office of the Daily Mail.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,242
    Scott_P said:
    He says 'if'. In effect, 'couldn't' rather than 'can't.'

    Fair play to the only Labour member with the intestinal fortitude to take on Corbyn, but this isn't showing the same backbone.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,781

    The EU could probably end this now by putting Cameron's deal back on the table in a draft treaty with a promise to look at reform of free movement in future, with some political guidelines appended to it, and to say all sides had learned lessons from this.

    But, that's never going to happen. They're far too myopic and inflexible.

    Yes.

    It's the EU's fault that 50 days, 1hr and 43minutes before a deadline that we set, after offering us a treaty that we asked for, agreed then rejected via a referendum, then offering us another treaty that we asked for, agreed then rejected via a parliamentary vote, that they have not offered us another treaty baked precisely to our taste despite the fact that there is absolutely nobody is in control in British politics who would agree to it, or is even in control period.

    That makes perfect sense.
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    viewcode said:

    The EU could probably end this now by putting Cameron's deal back on the table in a draft treaty with a promise to look at reform of free movement in future, with some political guidelines appended to it, and to say all sides had learned lessons from this.

    But, that's never going to happen. They're far too myopic and inflexible.

    Yes.

    It's the EU's fault that 50 days, 1hr and 43minutes before a deadline that we set, after offering us a treaty that we asked for, agreed then rejected via a referendum, then offering us another treaty that we asked for, agreed then rejected via a parliamentary vote, that they have not offered us another treaty baked precisely to our taste despite the fact that there is absolutely nobody is in control in British politics who would agree to it, or is even in control period.

    That makes perfect sense.
    Perfectly put. Have a cookie.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,242
    viewcode said:

    The EU could probably end this now by putting Cameron's deal back on the table in a draft treaty with a promise to look at reform of free movement in future, with some political guidelines appended to it, and to say all sides had learned lessons from this.

    But, that's never going to happen. They're far too myopic and inflexible.

    Yes.

    It's the EU's fault that 50 days, 1hr and 43minutes before a deadline that we set, after offering us a treaty that we asked for, agreed then rejected via a referendum, then offering us another treaty that we asked for, agreed then rejected via a parliamentary vote, that they have not offered us another treaty baked precisely to our taste despite the fact that there is absolutely nobody is in control in British politics who would agree to it, or is even in control period.

    That makes perfect sense.
    Of course it's the EU's fault. They caused this mess by existing. If it didn't exist, we wouldn't have joined and wouldn't be leaving.
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    We could get #CorbynsCustomsUnion through Parliament But, that's never going to happen. TM is far too myopic and inflexible.

    Its not myopic, a customs union is the wrong thing to do and goes against what we voted for twice.

    In the referendum it was an explicit argument of the Vote Leave campaign that we would sign our own trade deals.
    In the general election it was explicitly in the manifesto that we would sign our own trade deals.

    It isn't myopic to insist we leave the customs union, it is democratic.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,641

    Sean_F said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Interesting news from Brussels - the EU says Labour’s policy could offer a route out of the impasse. Permanent Customs Union would be a gigantic relief for our business, and many others.

    Let’s do it.

    Tusk saying that has probably just reduced its chances.
    The more palatable) and it makes it onto the statute book, or Parliament continues to decline to vote for it and No Deal happens. Where does the necessary majority of votes come from for anything else?
    She doesn't need a majority to revoke.
    I think she does.

    But even if she did not, why would she?
    Does she, Sean? I don't think so. She could just write a letter, no?

    Why would she? Well, if I were in her shoes and I had to make the dreadful choice between No Deal or Revoke, I'd choose the latter. Marginal choice, it's true, but on balance I'd figure the long-term damage to the Country, Party and my own reputation would be less.

    I know you don't share that view, and you are by no means alone, but I'm trying to look at impartially. From a betting viewpoint, I'd certainly think that option should be less the 7/1 currnetly available.
    That's confirmation bias, Peter, based on what you want to happen.
    It's not value.
    I'm not trying to trick you into a bet here, and I wouldn't bet on this one anyway. Too many imponderables. But if it were such a two-horse race, I know what my odds would be. You want to tell me yours, or shall I go first?
    One thing we're already starting to see is Brexiteers proposing revocation as a way to escape the 'trap' of Article 50. With the right framing, it could be surprisingly popular across the spectrum.
    Frankly, William, I think we are in deep shit whatever we do now. I certainly don't think Revoke is an easy answer, whatever side of the divide one might be on.

    But, that's never going to happen. They're far too myopic and inflexible.

    We could get #CorbynsCustomsUnion through Parliament But, that's never going to happen. TM is far too myopic and inflexible.
    Yes, May would prefer No Deal to compromising with enough Labour MPs to win the vote, though it would split both parties more or less equally.
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    FFS. Supporting a dictator actively denying people life-saving medication. When he's not starving them. This man is a piece of rancid, maggot-infested shit. And it's a decent MP like Luciana Berger who's up for reselection.
    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1093620415820222464
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,860
    Dear John,

    I have written to the Prime Minister laying out Labour's alternative plan so we can move beyond the mess the Tories have made of Brexit.

    The Tory failure has left the country deeply divided and facing the threat of a disastrous No Deal outcome. Labour can and must take a lead in bringing our country together.

    We are convinced that our sensible alternative, set out in the five demands in my letter, could both win the support of parliament and bring together those who voted Leave and Remain.

    More than any other party, Labour represents the hopes and ambitions of millions of people across all parts of our country.

    Whether people live in Tottenham or Mansfield, they face the same problems of austerity, the injustice of Universal Credit and insecure work. The real divide in our country is not between Leave and Remain, but between the many and the few.

    I believe our alternative plan – which includes a permanent customs union, staying close to the single market, and full guarantees on workers' rights, consumer standards and environmental protections – can help move us beyond divisions over Brexit and lay the ground for the transformation of our country that only a Labour government can deliver.

    Theresa May is unable to reach a sensible deal because it would split the Tories – and we will never vote for a bad Tory deal.

    If Parliament is deadlocked, then the best outcome would be a general election. Without it, we will keep all options on the table, as agreed in our party conference motion, including the option of a public vote.

    Thank you,

    Jeremy Corbyn
    Leader of the Labour Party
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,860

    We could get #CorbynsCustomsUnion through Parliament But, that's never going to happen. TM is far too myopic and inflexible.

    Its not myopic, a customs union is the wrong thing to do and goes against what we voted for twice.

    In the referendum it was an explicit argument of the Vote Leave campaign that we would sign our own trade deals.
    In the general election it was explicitly in the manifesto that we would sign our own trade deals.

    It isn't myopic to insist we leave the customs union, it is democratic.
    You do know the Backstop has the same impact?
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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    May is in her bunker and still thinks she’ll win the war !

    Utterly deluded . She needs to be ushered to the nearest care facility where she can while away the rest of her days repeating Brexit Means Brexit .

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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    George Orwell on British cooking, 1946. It is a glorious piece.
    https://www.britishcouncil.org/organisation/policy-insight-research/defence-english-cooking

    "At normal time it is not unusual to eat grilled beef steaks or mutton chops at breakfast, and there are still old-fashioned people who like to start the day with cold roast beef. In some parts of the country, for instance in East Anglia, it is usual to eat cheese at breakfast."

    and

    "Coffee in Britain is almost always nasty, either in restaurants or in private houses; the majority of people, though they drink it fairly freely, are uninterested in it and do not know good coffee from bad. Of tea, on the other hand, they are extremely critical, and everyone has his favourite brand and his pet theory as to how it should be made."
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,860
    nico67 said:

    May is in her bunker and still thinks she’ll win the war !

    Utterly deluded . She needs to be ushered to the nearest care facility where she can while away the rest of her days repeating Brexit Means Brexit .

    She fooked up GE 2017

    Fooked up Brexit negotiations


    Nothing has changed
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    dotsdots Posts: 615
    nico67 said:

    May is in her bunker and still thinks she’ll win the war !

    Utterly deluded . She needs to be ushered to the nearest care facility where she can while away the rest of her days repeating Brexit Means Brexit .

    To be fair to the political establishment, I think politicians across the spectrum, are fearful what happens if they thwart Brexit. The vast majority of them think Brexit leaves us poorer, from poorer to dread to think based on the type of Brexit, but they are paralysed by fear of what happens if they thwart it.

    I don’t think calling a referendum to settle this once and for all has gone very well in hindsight.
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    nico67 said:

    May is in her bunker and still thinks she’ll win the war !

    Utterly deluded . She needs to be ushered to the nearest care facility where she can while away the rest of her days repeating Brexit Means Brexit .

    She fooked up GE 2017

    Fooked up Brexit negotiations


    Nothing has changed
    If she fooked up GE 2017 what does it say about Corbyn that he still lost to Mrs May?
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    viewcode said:

    The EU could probably end this now by putting Cameron's deal back on the table in a draft treaty with a promise to look at reform of free movement in future, with some political guidelines appended to it, and to say all sides had learned lessons from this.

    But, that's never going to happen. They're far too myopic and inflexible.

    Yes.

    It's the EU's fault that 50 days, 1hr and 43minutes before a deadline that we set, after offering us a treaty that we asked for, agreed then rejected via a referendum, then offering us another treaty that we asked for, agreed then rejected via a parliamentary vote, that they have not offered us another treaty baked precisely to our taste despite the fact that there is absolutely nobody is in control in British politics who would agree to it, or is even in control period.

    That makes perfect sense.
    I have the sense that any minute now the Yookay is going to start rolling about the ground and screeching 'I never asked to be born!'
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    nico67 said:

    May is in her bunker and still thinks she’ll win the war !

    Utterly deluded . She needs to be ushered to the nearest care facility where she can while away the rest of her days repeating Brexit Means Brexit .

    She fooked up GE 2017

    Fooked up Brexit negotiations


    Nothing has changed
    If she fooked up GE 2017 what does it say about Corbyn that he still lost to Mrs May?
    And has a 19% approval rating in todays poll
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    dotsdots Posts: 615

    We could get #CorbynsCustomsUnion through Parliament But, that's never going to happen. TM is far too myopic and inflexible.

    Its not myopic, a customs union is the wrong thing to do and goes against what we voted for twice.

    In the referendum it was an explicit argument of the Vote Leave campaign that we would sign our own trade deals.
    In the general election it was explicitly in the manifesto that we would sign our own trade deals.

    It isn't myopic to insist we leave the customs union, it is democratic.

    Thommo

    But here’s the acid test. Put it to the people tomorrow.

    Here, folks, everybody. You can have one of these nice proper brexits, or you can have one of these vassaly wish washy custom union brexits where we have the benefits of the custom union but cant sign our own trade deals.

    Go on. You quite confident how the public will vote on that forced choice?

    Put it to the people tomorrow. 🙃
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    nico67 said:

    May is in her bunker and still thinks she’ll win the war !

    Utterly deluded . She needs to be ushered to the nearest care facility where she can while away the rest of her days repeating Brexit Means Brexit .

    She fooked up GE 2017

    Fooked up Brexit negotiations


    Nothing has changed
    If she fooked up GE 2017 what does it say about Corbyn that he still lost to Mrs May?
    That he's s**t but we all knew that before he nearly managed to beat the Poundshop Gordon Brown.
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    Worth remembering that if it wasn't for Ruth Davidson its entirely possible that Corbyn did beat Mrs May.
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    We could get #CorbynsCustomsUnion through Parliament But, that's never going to happen. TM is far too myopic and inflexible.

    Its not myopic, a customs union is the wrong thing to do and goes against what we voted for twice.

    In the referendum it was an explicit argument of the Vote Leave campaign that we would sign our own trade deals.
    In the general election it was explicitly in the manifesto that we would sign our own trade deals.

    It isn't myopic to insist we leave the customs union, it is democratic.
    All that anyone remembers of Vote Leave’s campaign is the promise to pay £350 million a week to the NHS and the anti-immigration message.

    https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/961908728801976320?s=21

    If Vote Leave were bothered by the customs union they should have spent less time race-baiting and more time talking about it.

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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    GIN1138 said:

    Owen Who?

    Owen Thingy IIRC
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    It isn’t just may and jezza having problems with the troops...

    The Isis leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, survived a coup attempt last month launched by foreign fighters in his eastern Syrian hideout, intelligence officials believe, and the terrorist group has since placed a bounty on the main plotter’s head.

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    dots said:

    We could get #CorbynsCustomsUnion through Parliament But, that's never going to happen. TM is far too myopic and inflexible.

    Its not myopic, a customs union is the wrong thing to do and goes against what we voted for twice.

    In the referendum it was an explicit argument of the Vote Leave campaign that we would sign our own trade deals.
    In the general election it was explicitly in the manifesto that we would sign our own trade deals.

    It isn't myopic to insist we leave the customs union, it is democratic.

    Thommo

    But here’s the acid test. Put it to the people tomorrow.

    Here, folks, everybody. You can have one of these nice proper brexits, or you can have one of these vassaly wish washy custom union brexits where we have the benefits of the custom union but cant sign our own trade deals.

    Go on. You quite confident how the public will vote on that forced choice?

    Put it to the people tomorrow. 🙃
    No. We don't need to put everything to the public.

    May should do what was in her own manifesto (as well as being what Vote Leave campaigned on) and leave the CU.

    If Corbyn wants to put a Customs Union to the people then by no later than 2022 he has that right.
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    dots said:

    We could get #CorbynsCustomsUnion through Parliament But, that's never going to happen. TM is far too myopic and inflexible.

    Its not myopic, a customs union is the wrong thing to do and goes against what we voted for twice.

    In the referendum it was an explicit argument of the Vote Leave campaign that we would sign our own trade deals.
    In the general election it was explicitly in the manifesto that we would sign our own trade deals.

    It isn't myopic to insist we leave the customs union, it is democratic.

    Thommo

    But here’s the acid test. Put it to the people tomorrow.

    Here, folks, everybody. You can have one of these nice proper brexits, or you can have one of these vassaly wish washy custom union brexits where we have the benefits of the custom union but cant sign our own trade deals.

    Go on. You quite confident how the public will vote on that forced choice?

    Put it to the people tomorrow. 🙃
    Or you can Remain. Put that to the people tomorrow.
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    The EU could probably end this now by putting Cameron's deal back on the table in a draft treaty with a promise to look at reform of free movement in future, with some political guidelines appended to it, and to say all sides had learned lessons from this.

    But, that's never going to happen. They're far too myopic and inflexible.

    There's almost zero constituency for that in Britain. Leave enthusiasts would scream about the EU and the political class conniving to stop Brexit and Remain supporters just aren't interested in curbing free movement. There might have been some support for it before the referendum - although hardly anyone was impressed by Cameron's deal at the time - but but sides have radicalized since then.
  • Options

    We could get #CorbynsCustomsUnion through Parliament But, that's never going to happen. TM is far too myopic and inflexible.

    Its not myopic, a customs union is the wrong thing to do and goes against what we voted for twice.

    In the referendum it was an explicit argument of the Vote Leave campaign that we would sign our own trade deals.
    In the general election it was explicitly in the manifesto that we would sign our own trade deals.

    It isn't myopic to insist we leave the customs union, it is democratic.
    You do know the Backstop has the same impact?
    You do know I vehemently oppose the Backstop?
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    nico67 said:

    May is in her bunker and still thinks she’ll win the war !

    Utterly deluded . She needs to be ushered to the nearest care facility where she can while away the rest of her days repeating Brexit Means Brexit .

    She fooked up GE 2017

    Fooked up Brexit negotiations


    Nothing has changed
    If she fooked up GE 2017 what does it say about Corbyn that he still lost to Mrs May?
    And has a 19% approval rating in todays poll
    No he doesn't.
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    sarissasarissa Posts: 1,783

    What special place in EU heaven is reserved for those who sold remaining in the EU in the referendum without once mentioning "ever closer union", the only truth of the EU?

    I thought it was “ever closer union (NB lower case) of peoples ” - when was it rewritten?
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    The Brexit negotiations are being pushed to the brink by Theresa May and the EU, with any last-minute offer by Brussels on the Irish backstop expected to be put to MPs just days before the UK is due to leave.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/07/theresa-may-juncker-clash-brexit-robush-backstop
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,242

    nico67 said:

    May is in her bunker and still thinks she’ll win the war !

    Utterly deluded . She needs to be ushered to the nearest care facility where she can while away the rest of her days repeating Brexit Means Brexit .

    She fooked up GE 2017

    Fooked up Brexit negotiations


    Nothing has changed
    If she fooked up GE 2017 what does it say about Corbyn that he still lost to Mrs May?
    And has a 19% approval rating in todays poll
    Given the last few weeks, that's got to be an error. I think the decimal point was a couple of columns too far right...
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,860

    nico67 said:

    May is in her bunker and still thinks she’ll win the war !

    Utterly deluded . She needs to be ushered to the nearest care facility where she can while away the rest of her days repeating Brexit Means Brexit .

    She fooked up GE 2017

    Fooked up Brexit negotiations


    Nothing has changed
    If she fooked up GE 2017 what does it say about Corbyn that he still lost to Mrs May?
    Thought he turned round a 20% deficit in 3 weeks and achieved the biggest increase in Labour vote since WW2.

    Some Yorkshire bloke reckons TM blew Camerons Majority
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    We could get #CorbynsCustomsUnion through Parliament But, that's never going to happen. TM is far too myopic and inflexible.

    Its not myopic, a customs union is the wrong thing to do and goes against what we voted for twice.

    In the referendum it was an explicit argument of the Vote Leave campaign that we would sign our own trade deals.
    In the general election it was explicitly in the manifesto that we would sign our own trade deals.

    It isn't myopic to insist we leave the customs union, it is democratic.
    All that anyone remembers of Vote Leave’s campaign is the promise to pay £350 million a week to the NHS and the anti-immigration message.

    https://twitter.com/andrewcooper__/status/961908728801976320?s=21

    If Vote Leave were bothered by the customs union they should have spent less time race-baiting and more time talking about it.

    That seems like a disingenous graph. It says "main arguments" but the numbers add up to just 94% so it seems like its capped at 1 choice per respondent. IE its showing main argument not arguments.

    I'd be curious if people were allowed to name 3-4 responses and not just 1 how it would look. Just because someone might pick the bus/immigration doesn't mean they don't recall other things like trade opportunities elsewhere. I remember trade opportunities elsewhere but its not what I'd put down if I was only allowed to pick one option.

    PS nearly two-thirds chose something other than immigration and immigration isn't race-baiting in itself either.
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    nico67 said:

    May is in her bunker and still thinks she’ll win the war !

    Utterly deluded . She needs to be ushered to the nearest care facility where she can while away the rest of her days repeating Brexit Means Brexit .

    She fooked up GE 2017

    Fooked up Brexit negotiations


    Nothing has changed
    If she fooked up GE 2017 what does it say about Corbyn that he still lost to Mrs May?
    And has a 19% approval rating in todays poll
    No he doesn't.
    The best pm you gov rating today was

    TM 40%

    D/K 39%

    CORBYN 19%

    Am I missing something
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    nico67 said:

    May is in her bunker and still thinks she’ll win the war !

    Utterly deluded . She needs to be ushered to the nearest care facility where she can while away the rest of her days repeating Brexit Means Brexit .

    She fooked up GE 2017

    Fooked up Brexit negotiations


    Nothing has changed
    If she fooked up GE 2017 what does it say about Corbyn that he still lost to Mrs May?
    And has a 19% approval rating in todays poll
    No he doesn't.
    The best pm you gov rating today was

    TM 40%

    D/K 39%

    CORBYN 19%

    Am I missing something
    That's not an approval rating.
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    nico67 said:

    May is in her bunker and still thinks she’ll win the war !

    Utterly deluded . She needs to be ushered to the nearest care facility where she can while away the rest of her days repeating Brexit Means Brexit .

    She fooked up GE 2017

    Fooked up Brexit negotiations


    Nothing has changed
    If she fooked up GE 2017 what does it say about Corbyn that he still lost to Mrs May?
    And has a 19% approval rating in todays poll
    No he doesn't.
    The best pm you gov rating today was

    TM 40%

    D/K 39%

    CORBYN 19%

    Am I missing something
    That's not an approval rating.
    OK then
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,242

    nico67 said:

    May is in her bunker and still thinks she’ll win the war !

    Utterly deluded . She needs to be ushered to the nearest care facility where she can while away the rest of her days repeating Brexit Means Brexit .

    She fooked up GE 2017

    Fooked up Brexit negotiations


    Nothing has changed
    If she fooked up GE 2017 what does it say about Corbyn that he still lost to Mrs May?
    Thought he turned round a 20% deficit in 3 weeks and achieved the biggest increase in Labour vote since WW2.

    Some Yorkshire bloke reckons TM blew Camerons Majority
    If only he wasn't planning to do the exact opposite to the national finances.
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    nico67 said:

    May is in her bunker and still thinks she’ll win the war !

    Utterly deluded . She needs to be ushered to the nearest care facility where she can while away the rest of her days repeating Brexit Means Brexit .

    She fooked up GE 2017

    Fooked up Brexit negotiations


    Nothing has changed
    If she fooked up GE 2017 what does it say about Corbyn that he still lost to Mrs May?
    Thought he turned round a 20% deficit in 3 weeks and achieved the biggest increase in Labour vote since WW2.

    Some Yorkshire bloke reckons TM blew Camerons Majority
    She did but still ended up with 55 MPs more than Corbs.
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    dotsdots Posts: 615

    The Brexit negotiations are being pushed to the brink by Theresa May and the EU, with any last-minute offer by Brussels on the Irish backstop expected to be put to MPs just days before the UK is due to leave.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/07/theresa-may-juncker-clash-brexit-robush-backstop

    If she hasn’t won a rocket trip to the moon by that point. 🙃.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,817

    The Brexit negotiations are being pushed to the brink by Theresa May and the EU, with any last-minute offer by Brussels on the Irish backstop expected to be put to MPs just days before the UK is due to leave.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/07/theresa-may-juncker-clash-brexit-robush-backstop

    Theresa is going to look like Jack Lemon in the last ten minutes of the China Syndrome at this rate! :D
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    Scott_P said:
    But Corbyn is attempting to get a Labour Brexit, so what's his problem? Is any Brexit a Tory Brexit? In which case he is definitely in the wrong party.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,242
    GIN1138 said:

    The Brexit negotiations are being pushed to the brink by Theresa May and the EU, with any last-minute offer by Brussels on the Irish backstop expected to be put to MPs just days before the UK is due to leave.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/07/theresa-may-juncker-clash-brexit-robush-backstop

    Theresa is going to look like Jack Lemon in the last ten minutes of the China Syndrome at this rate! :D
    Brexit's looking more like Jack Lemon in the last ninety seconds of Some Like It Hot at the moment.
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    dotsdots Posts: 615

    dots said:

    We could get #CorbynsCustomsUnion through Parliament But, that's never going to happen. TM is far too myopic and inflexible.

    Its not myopic, a customs union is the wrong thing to do and goes against what we voted for twice.

    In the referendum it was an explicit argument of the Vote Leave campaign that we would sign our own trade deals.
    In the general election it was explicitly in the manifesto that we would sign our own trade deals.

    It isn't myopic to insist we leave the customs union, it is democratic.

    Thommo

    But here’s the acid test. Put it to the people tomorrow.

    Here, folks, everybody. You can have one of these nice proper brexits, or you can have one of these vassaly wish washy custom union brexits where we have the benefits of the custom union but cant sign our own trade deals.

    Go on. You quite confident how the public will vote on that forced choice?

    Put it to the people tomorrow. 🙃
    No. We don't need to put everything to the public.

    May should do what was in her own manifesto (as well as being what Vote Leave campaigned on) and leave the CU.

    If Corbyn wants to put a Customs Union to the people then by no later than 2022 he has that right.
    Sounds like you are bottling it avoiding the key element of any good democracy, where people are allowed to change their mind, especially as time passes. Got your result when people didn’t know what it really meant, now you’ve locked the gates?

    You admit. Over the last year the downsides of doing our own trade deals route has become much much much clearer? It’s definitely more expensive way of doing it than pooling the cost in the EU negotiation team, that cant be argued against. Playing into the hands of the multinationals so hurting our communities with more globalisation. Here’s the kicker as Bozzy bear would say, we couldn’t even be sure we can get better all round deal than the EU countries are getting from their handshake with same country. Not getting a better deal than current from it, for example we wouldn’t seek one with USA that’s been made crystal clear on PB alone. Setting low import tariffs, such as at zero and slaughtering our manufacturing industry (forward looking though that is as our future lies in post industrial services not manufacturing stuff) but it doesn’t leave much incentive for countries to sign a trade deal with us?
  • Options
    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    Very nasty spiteful by Nick Cohen about Ian Dunt's latest (https://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/02/07/labour-s-new-brexit-policy-looks-an-awful-lot-like-norway-pl). Dunt's piece seemed charitable but mildly plausible to me, whereas Cohen is basically the Observer's equivalent of Dan Hodges.

    https://twitter.com/NickCohen4/status/1093610316141940736
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    sarissa said:

    What special place in EU heaven is reserved for those who sold remaining in the EU in the referendum without once mentioning "ever closer union", the only truth of the EU?

    I thought it was “ever closer union (NB lower case) of peoples ” - when was it rewritten?
    Given that the architects who wrote the Treaty of Rome all spoke openly about a single European State and that that is how it has been interpreted by the EC/EU ever since I would suggest your dancing on the head of a pin is rather removed from reality.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,860

    nico67 said:

    May is in her bunker and still thinks she’ll win the war !

    Utterly deluded . She needs to be ushered to the nearest care facility where she can while away the rest of her days repeating Brexit Means Brexit .

    She fooked up GE 2017

    Fooked up Brexit negotiations


    Nothing has changed
    If she fooked up GE 2017 what does it say about Corbyn that he still lost to Mrs May?
    Thought he turned round a 20% deficit in 3 weeks and achieved the biggest increase in Labour vote since WW2.

    Some Yorkshire bloke reckons TM blew Camerons Majority
    She did but still ended up with 55 MPs more than Corbs.
    In office but not in power
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    dotsdots Posts: 615

    dots said:

    We could get #CorbynsCustomsUnion through Parliament But, that's never going to happen. TM is far too myopic and inflexible.

    Its not myopic, a customs union is the wrong thing to do and goes against what we voted for twice.

    In the referendum it was an explicit argument of the Vote Leave campaign that we would sign our own trade deals.
    In the general election it was explicitly in the manifesto that we would sign our own trade deals.

    It isn't myopic to insist we leave the customs union, it is democratic.

    Thommo

    But here’s the acid test. Put it to the people tomorrow.

    Here, folks, everybody. You can have one of these nice proper brexits, or you can have one of these vassaly wish washy custom union brexits where we have the benefits of the custom union but cant sign our own trade deals.

    Go on. You quite confident how the public will vote on that forced choice?

    Put it to the people tomorrow. 🙃
    Or you can Remain. Put that to the people tomorrow.
    Against what?

    Norwegians, those people in that archetypal vassal state strut about claiming they are not in the EU, but we all know what they are in. I have not a shadow of doubt if we put Norway to the British people tomorrow in a ref, against either proper “thommo” brexit or a “meeksey” remain, or both, Norway would win.

    I know we are not supposed to call voters thick. But. I don’t think any voter can compute what this really means, I don’t think any politician can compute what all this means, I don’t think experts can compute and agree what all this means. Voters, politicians, experts are not just divided otoday, but in fact it begins before we were even in it as UK wanted in the sixties. So yes, I am saying leave voters don’t know what they are getting by simply voting leave last time. No one knows. It’s a huge cavass of powers, idea’s, options, vested interests (particularly that of business, more powerful in 21st century versus ideology now weaker and populist). Brexit means brexit can’t be explained. It cant be understood. It cant be decided in simple referendum, to believe so, to go down such a route, is just plain mad.

    Its mad you know? This is mad.
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    rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    sarissa said:

    What special place in EU heaven is reserved for those who sold remaining in the EU in the referendum without once mentioning "ever closer union", the only truth of the EU?

    I thought it was “ever closer union (NB lower case) of peoples ” - when was it rewritten?
    Yes, the Treaty of Rome said 'ever closer union of the peoples of Europe', I think. Political union was implicit but not explicit.
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    But Corbyn is attempting to get a Labour Brexit, so what's his problem? Is any Brexit a Tory Brexit? In which case he is definitely in the wrong party.
    As Private Eye points out, Seumas Milne, Jacob Rees-Mogg and John Redwood are all Europhobes and would all go through the same voting lobby. The problem is that Milne exerts more influence over Corbyn than Starmer does.

    In a way, Chris Patten was right to call ERG Marxists. They have the same hatred of the EU as the extreme Labour left does.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    viewcode said:

    The EU could probably end this now by putting Cameron's deal back on the table in a draft treaty with a promise to look at reform of free movement in future, with some political guidelines appended to it, and to say all sides had learned lessons from this.

    But, that's never going to happen. They're far too myopic and inflexible.

    Yes.

    It's the EU's fault that 50 days, 1hr and 43minutes before a deadline that we set, after offering us a treaty that we asked for, agreed then rejected via a referendum, then offering us another treaty that we asked for, agreed then rejected via a parliamentary vote, that they have not offered us another treaty baked precisely to our taste despite the fact that there is absolutely nobody is in control in British politics who would agree to it, or is even in control period.

    That makes perfect sense.
    I have the sense that any minute now the Yookay is going to start rolling about the ground and screeching 'I never asked to be born!'
    On the money I would say. Most likely we're going to leave without a deal and within a few weeks we'll be banging on the door saying it was just a joke can we come back?
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    dotsdots Posts: 615
    OGH is right in today’s earlier header “Having followed year of the next general election markets closely for decades the general rule is that punters are more likely to overstate the chances on an early general election. This is one where generally the best betting option is to lay.”

    two things working against this though, firstly as Sandpit succinctly put it. “I think laying 2022 is the way to play this market. There's way too many variables, and almost all of them go against the chances of a minority government lasting the full five year term.” Secondly, As that government you are aware of this, when presented with fair wind to comfortably win a GE do you go for it? What’s coming is a unique political situation, labour 25% or less in polls in state of civil war unable to agree a manifesto to fight on, presents tories with such opportunity, they should and I think wil go for it.

    The politics this year seem so clear to me impasse = GE = comfortable tory win for May’s deal = Brexit = turmoil in Labour and end of Corbyn Brexit (without GE to end impasse) = turmoil in Labour = GE = comfortable tory win = end of Corbyn

    Its so obvious this is going to happen. I would be surprised if I am a lone voice.
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    dots said:

    Sounds like you are bottling it avoiding the key element of any good democracy, where people are allowed to change their mind, especially as time passes. Got your result when people didn’t know what it really meant, now you’ve locked the gates?

    You admit. Over the last year the downsides of doing our own trade deals route has become much much much clearer? It’s definitely more expensive way of doing it than pooling the cost in the EU negotiation team, that cant be argued against. Playing into the hands of the multinationals so hurting our communities with more globalisation. Here’s the kicker as Bozzy bear would say, we couldn’t even be sure we can get better all round deal than the EU countries are getting from their handshake with same country. Not getting a better deal than current from it, for example we wouldn’t seek one with USA that’s been made crystal clear on PB alone. Setting low import tariffs, such as at zero and slaughtering our manufacturing industry (forward looking though that is as our future lies in post industrial services not manufacturing stuff) but it doesn’t leave much incentive for countries to sign a trade deal with us?

    I have no qualms with the people changing their mind. That is the purpose of having regular elections.

    If at the next election (due no later than 2022, only 3 years away) a majority is won by people seeking a new referendum, possibly on rejoining, then that is their right. If a subsequent referendum results in a change of mind, so be it.

    No I don't admit the downsides have become much clearer. They were pretty clear at the time. It was debated at the time.
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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    All of a sudden Leavers couldn’t sleep with worry if the UK remained in a Customs Union . Given the CU was given little attention during the EU ref campaign it’s now only become a big topic because the lying spivs of the ERG decided this was yet another red line and clueless May doubled down on this .

  • Options
    dotsdots Posts: 615

    nico67 said:

    May is in her bunker and still thinks she’ll win the war !

    Utterly deluded . She needs to be ushered to the nearest care facility where she can while away the rest of her days repeating Brexit Means Brexit .

    She fooked up GE 2017

    Fooked up Brexit negotiations


    Nothing has changed
    If she fooked up GE 2017 what does it say about Corbyn that he still lost to Mrs May?
    Thought he turned round a 20% deficit in 3 weeks and achieved the biggest increase in Labour vote since WW2.

    Some Yorkshire bloke reckons TM blew Camerons Majority
    She did but still ended up with 55 MPs more than Corbs.
    In office but not in power

    You are both being silly. A carrot could have held the banner leave means leave and got the leave votes, a turnip could have carried the banner for softer or no brexit and got the remainers, the actual manifesto, parties, leaders meant nothing in 17. It wasn’t a proper GE. It should be found to have been high on brexit and rubbed out the record books.
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    nico67 said:

    All of a sudden Leavers couldn’t sleep with worry if the UK remained in a Customs Union . Given the CU was given little attention during the EU ref campaign it’s now only become a big topic because the lying spivs of the ERG decided this was yet another red line and clueless May doubled down on this .

    It was a key pledge of Vote Leave that we would leave the CU. Plenty of attention was given. The ability to make our own trade deals was explicit.

    “Britain lacks the power to strike free trade deals with its trading partners outside Europe. Being in the EU means that Brussels has full control of our trade policy. We don’t even have an independent voice in the World Trade Organization – Brussels negotiates everything on our behalf and does a bad job… If we Vote Leave, we can negotiate for ourselves.”
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    sarissa said:

    What special place in EU heaven is reserved for those who sold remaining in the EU in the referendum without once mentioning "ever closer union", the only truth of the EU?

    I thought it was “ever closer union (NB lower case) of peoples ” - when was it rewritten?
    Yes, the Treaty of Rome said 'ever closer union of the peoples of Europe', I think. Political union was implicit but not explicit.
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    But Corbyn is attempting to get a Labour Brexit, so what's his problem? Is any Brexit a Tory Brexit? In which case he is definitely in the wrong party.
    As Private Eye points out, Seumas Milne, Jacob Rees-Mogg and John Redwood are all Europhobes and would all go through the same voting lobby. The problem is that Milne exerts more influence over Corbyn than Starmer does.

    In a way, Chris Patten was right to call ERG Marxists. They have the same hatred of the EU as the extreme Labour left does.
    All that exposes is both Patten's and your quite atrocious understanding of Marxism. Show me either the dialectical or historical materialism in the ERG viewpoints. The use of Marxism to describe any of the players in this situation is as idiotic as the use of Nazism.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,970
    So after being out all day being a busy bee, surely May's foreign jaunt made everything a little clearer?
    What's that you say?
    Oh, it got even more opaque.
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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    nico67 said:

    All of a sudden Leavers couldn’t sleep with worry if the UK remained in a Customs Union . Given the CU was given little attention during the EU ref campaign it’s now only become a big topic because the lying spivs of the ERG decided this was yet another red line and clueless May doubled down on this .

    It was a key pledge of Vote Leave that we would leave the CU. Plenty of attention was given. The ability to make our own trade deals was explicit.

    “Britain lacks the power to strike free trade deals with its trading partners outside Europe. Being in the EU means that Brussels has full control of our trade policy. We don’t even have an independent voice in the World Trade Organization – Brussels negotiates everything on our behalf and does a bad job… If we Vote Leave, we can negotiate for ourselves.”
    Lmao! Yes Liam Fox has done marvelous work to deliver transferring over that huge deal with the Faroe Islands ! I’ll take my chances with the EU who have the weight of 500 million consumers behind them !
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    nico67 said:

    All of a sudden Leavers couldn’t sleep with worry if the UK remained in a Customs Union . Given the CU was given little attention during the EU ref campaign it’s now only become a big topic because the lying spivs of the ERG decided this was yet another red line and clueless May doubled down on this .

    CU got plenty of Manifesto action in 2017.
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    Totally O/T...just thinking about Liam Neeson thing. Didn't Mark Wahlberg actually go and blind an Asian guy while calling his racial epithets? But he is one of the biggest stars in Hollywood?
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    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    All of a sudden Leavers couldn’t sleep with worry if the UK remained in a Customs Union . Given the CU was given little attention during the EU ref campaign it’s now only become a big topic because the lying spivs of the ERG decided this was yet another red line and clueless May doubled down on this .

    It was a key pledge of Vote Leave that we would leave the CU. Plenty of attention was given. The ability to make our own trade deals was explicit.

    “Britain lacks the power to strike free trade deals with its trading partners outside Europe. Being in the EU means that Brussels has full control of our trade policy. We don’t even have an independent voice in the World Trade Organization – Brussels negotiates everything on our behalf and does a bad job… If we Vote Leave, we can negotiate for ourselves.”
    Lmao! Yes Liam Fox has done marvelous work to deliver transferring over that huge deal with the Faroe Islands ! I’ll take my chances with the EU who have the weight of 500 million consumers behind them !
    That argument was made in the referendum.

    If Liam Fox does a crap job then sack Liam Fox. Simples.
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    BTW, when are we getting edit button back?
  • Options


    The EU could probably end this now by putting Cameron's deal back on the table in a draft treaty with a promise to look at reform of free movement in future, with some political guidelines appended to it, and to say all sides had learned lessons from this.

    But, that's never going to happen. They're far too myopic and inflexible.

    There's almost zero constituency for that in Britain. Leave enthusiasts would scream about the EU and the political class conniving to stop Brexit and Remain supporters just aren't interested in curbing free movement. There might have been some support for it before the referendum - although hardly anyone was impressed by Cameron's deal at the time - but but sides have radicalized since then.
    Nonsense. It would win over the middle ground. It's the most obvious move.

    Very telling that federasts like you oppose it. You'd be terrified it'd work.
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    Footballer Sala identified as body recovered from the plane
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    viewcode said:

    The EU could probably end this now by putting Cameron's deal back on the table in a draft treaty with a promise to look at reform of free movement in future, with some political guidelines appended to it, and to say all sides had learned lessons from this.

    But, that's never going to happen. They're far too myopic and inflexible.

    Yes.

    It's the EU's fault that 50 days, 1hr and 43minutes before a deadline that we set, after offering us a treaty that we asked for, agreed then rejected via a referendum, then offering us another treaty that we asked for, agreed then rejected via a parliamentary vote, that they have not offered us another treaty baked precisely to our taste despite the fact that there is absolutely nobody is in control in British politics who would agree to it, or is even in control period.

    That makes perfect sense.
    It's a Remain option that addresses the fundamental concerns of the British: political union and immigration.

    But, yes, attack it out of hand if you makes you feel better. Both sides have been radicalised so neither are seeing sense at the moment.
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    Anorak said:

    viewcode said:

    The EU could probably end this now by putting Cameron's deal back on the table in a draft treaty with a promise to look at reform of free movement in future, with some political guidelines appended to it, and to say all sides had learned lessons from this.

    But, that's never going to happen. They're far too myopic and inflexible.

    Yes.

    It's the EU's fault that 50 days, 1hr and 43minutes before a deadline that we set, after offering us a treaty that we asked for, agreed then rejected via a referendum, then offering us another treaty that we asked for, agreed then rejected via a parliamentary vote, that they have not offered us another treaty baked precisely to our taste despite the fact that there is absolutely nobody is in control in British politics who would agree to it, or is even in control period.

    That makes perfect sense.
    Perfectly put. Have a cookie.
    Another idiot speaks.
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    viewcode said:

    The EU could probably end this now by putting Cameron's deal back on the table in a draft treaty with a promise to look at reform of free movement in future, with some political guidelines appended to it, and to say all sides had learned lessons from this.

    But, that's never going to happen. They're far too myopic and inflexible.

    Yes.

    It's the EU's fault that 50 days, 1hr and 43minutes before a deadline that we set, after offering us a treaty that we asked for, agreed then rejected via a referendum, then offering us another treaty that we asked for, agreed then rejected via a parliamentary vote, that they have not offered us another treaty baked precisely to our taste despite the fact that there is absolutely nobody is in control in British politics who would agree to it, or is even in control period.

    That makes perfect sense.
    I have the sense that any minute now the Yookay is going to start rolling about the ground and screeching 'I never asked to be born!'
    Pathetic.
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    dots said:

    We could get #CorbynsCustomsUnion through Parliament But, that's never going to happen. TM is far too myopic and inflexible.

    Its not myopic, a customs union is the wrong thing to do and goes against what we voted for twice.

    In the referendum it was an explicit argument of the Vote Leave campaign that we would sign our own trade deals.
    In the general election it was explicitly in the manifesto that we would sign our own trade deals.

    It isn't myopic to insist we leave the customs union, it is democratic.

    Thommo

    But here’s the acid test. Put it to the people tomorrow.

    Here, folks, everybody. You can have one of these nice proper brexits, or you can have one of these vassaly wish washy custom union brexits where we have the benefits of the custom union but cant sign our own trade deals.

    Go on. You quite confident how the public will vote on that forced choice?

    Put it to the people tomorrow. 🙃
    Or you can Remain. Put that to the people tomorrow.
    No Remain option that doesn't address any of the concerns that led to the original Leave vote can be put to the people.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,860
    Kevin Schofield

    Verified account

    @PolhomeEditor
    Follow Follow @PolhomeEditor
    More Kevin Schofield Retweeted PoliticsHome
    Theresa May went to Brussels and was told Jeremy Corbyn’s plan for Brexit was better than hers.
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    _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Is SeanT’s Labour crush Luciana Berger or Liz Kendall?

    Or, Rebecca Long-Bailey?
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    Understandable if you had not seen one of the news reports today. There was a recommendation that kids should be limited in the amount of time they are allowed to play on personal electronics. Basically limit their use at school and in the evenings before bed time.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,860
    NEW Donald Tusk tells Theresa May that Jeremy Corbyn plan could end Brexit deadlock

    #CorbynsCustomsUnion
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    The EU could probably end this now by putting Cameron's deal back on the table in a draft treaty with a promise to look at reform of free movement in future, with some political guidelines appended to it, and to say all sides had learned lessons from this.

    But, that's never going to happen. They're far too myopic and inflexible.

    There's almost zero constituency for that in Britain. Leave enthusiasts would scream about the EU and the political class conniving to stop Brexit and Remain supporters just aren't interested in curbing free movement. There might have been some support for it before the referendum - although hardly anyone was impressed by Cameron's deal at the time - but but sides have radicalized since then.
    Nonsense. It would win over the middle ground. It's the most obvious move.

    Very telling that federasts like you oppose it. You'd be terrified it'd work.
    Federasts?

    You're an angry wee Brexit bird, ain't ye?
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,860

    Understandable if you had not seen one of the news reports today. There was a recommendation that kids should be limited in the amount of time they are allowed to play on personal electronics. Basically limit their use at school and in the evenings before bed time.
    Ah Thanks
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,860
    _Anazina_ said:

    Is SeanT’s Labour crush Luciana Berger or Liz Kendall?

    Or, Rebecca Long-Bailey?

    He said it was the Shadow Foreign Secretary
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,860

    dots said:

    We could get #CorbynsCustomsUnion through Parliament But, that's never going to happen. TM is far too myopic and inflexible.

    Its not myopic, a customs union is the wrong thing to do and goes against what we voted for twice.

    In the referendum it was an explicit argument of the Vote Leave campaign that we would sign our own trade deals.
    In the general election it was explicitly in the manifesto that we would sign our own trade deals.

    It isn't myopic to insist we leave the customs union, it is democratic.

    Thommo

    But here’s the acid test. Put it to the people tomorrow.

    Here, folks, everybody. You can have one of these nice proper brexits, or you can have one of these vassaly wish washy custom union brexits where we have the benefits of the custom union but cant sign our own trade deals.

    Go on. You quite confident how the public will vote on that forced choice?

    Put it to the people tomorrow. 🙃
    Or you can Remain. Put that to the people tomorrow.
    No Remain option that doesn't address any of the concerns that led to the original Leave vote can be put to the people.
    Agreed
  • Options


    The EU could probably end this now by putting Cameron's deal back on the table in a draft treaty with a promise to look at reform of free movement in future, with some political guidelines appended to it, and to say all sides had learned lessons from this.

    But, that's never going to happen. They're far too myopic and inflexible.

    There's almost zero constituency for that in Britain. Leave enthusiasts would scream about the EU and the political class conniving to stop Brexit and Remain supporters just aren't interested in curbing free movement. There might have been some support for it before the referendum - although hardly anyone was impressed by Cameron's deal at the time - but but sides have radicalized since then.
    Nonsense. It would win over the middle ground. It's the most obvious move.

    Very telling that federasts like you oppose it. You'd be terrified it'd work.
    Federasts?

    You're an angry wee Brexit bird, ain't ye?
    Almost as angry as you with your choice usage of sectarian language to describe Unionists.

    I won't take any lectures on language from you, a blood and soil nationalist.
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    _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Big John

    Yes, unusually poor from Matt. Brexit-fatigue comes to the best of us, eventually.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,781

    viewcode said:

    The EU could probably end this now by putting Cameron's deal back on the table in a draft treaty with a promise to look at reform of free movement in future, with some political guidelines appended to it, and to say all sides had learned lessons from this.

    But, that's never going to happen. They're far too myopic and inflexible.

    Yes.

    It's the EU's fault that 50 days, 1hr and 43minutes before a deadline that we set, after offering us a treaty that we asked for, agreed then rejected via a referendum, then offering us another treaty that we asked for, agreed then rejected via a parliamentary vote, that they have not offered us another treaty baked precisely to our taste despite the fact that there is absolutely nobody is in control in British politics who would agree to it, or is even in control period.

    That makes perfect sense.
    It's a Remain option that addresses the fundamental concerns of the British: political union and immigration.

    But, yes, attack it out of hand if you makes you feel better. Both sides have been radicalised so neither are seeing sense at the moment.
    In fairness, it is a good idea. If immediately post-referendum we had sought a better remain deal, and they had offered one, and it had been ratified by another referendum, then it would have worked. And there were other approaches: work out what Parliament would tolerate before invoking Article 50, or settling early on no-deal and toughing it out, or EFTA/EEA, and so on.

    But my point was not whether it was a good idea or not. My point was that it is far too late now.

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    _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    dots said:

    We could get #CorbynsCustomsUnion through Parliament But, that's never going to happen. TM is far too myopic and inflexible.

    Its not myopic, a customs union is the wrong thing to do and goes against what we voted for twice.

    In the referendum it was an explicit argument of the Vote Leave campaign that we would sign our own trade deals.
    In the general election it was explicitly in the manifesto that we would sign our own trade deals.

    It isn't myopic to insist we leave the customs union, it is democratic.

    Thommo

    But here’s the acid test. Put it to the people tomorrow.

    Here, folks, everybody. You can have one of these nice proper brexits, or you can have one of these vassaly wish washy custom union brexits where we have the benefits of the custom union but cant sign our own trade deals.

    Go on. You quite confident how the public will vote on that forced choice?

    Put it to the people tomorrow. 🙃
    Or you can Remain. Put that to the people tomorrow.
    No Remain option that doesn't address any of the concerns that led to the original Leave vote can be put to the people.
    Agreed
    You wish to ignore the 16 million people who voted to remain? Odd.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,860
    _Anazina_ said:

    Big John

    Yes, unusually poor from Matt. Brexit-fatigue comes to the best of us, eventually.

    Matt is my favourite Cartoonist.

    Even now Richard has explained it. Not one of Matts best.

    I liked the one a couple of days ago with the massive No next to the Brussels Runway.
  • Options
    dotsdots Posts: 615

    _Anazina_ said:

    Big John

    Yes, unusually poor from Matt. Brexit-fatigue comes to the best of us, eventually.

    Matt is my favourite Cartoonist.

    Even now Richard has explained it. Not one of Matts best.

    I liked the one a couple of days ago with the massive No next to the Brussels Runway.
    I liked yesterdays. Though a flaming petroleum jacuzzi would probably appeal to brits for at least half eternity.
  • Options
    _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    PB, on thirsty Thursday, when all its posters are pissed, has a better standard of debate than Question Time.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,860
    _Anazina_ said:

    dots said:

    We could get #CorbynsCustomsUnion through Parliament But, that's never going to happen. TM is far too myopic and inflexible.

    Its not myopic, a customs union is the wrong thing to do and goes against what we voted for twice.

    In the referendum it was an explicit argument of the Vote Leave campaign that we would sign our own trade deals.
    In the general election it was explicitly in the manifesto that we would sign our own trade deals.

    It isn't myopic to insist we leave the customs union, it is democratic.

    Thommo

    But here’s the acid test. Put it to the people tomorrow.

    Here, folks, everybody. You can have one of these nice proper brexits, or you can have one of these vassaly wish washy custom union brexits where we have the benefits of the custom union but cant sign our own trade deals.

    Go on. You quite confident how the public will vote on that forced choice?

    Put it to the people tomorrow. 🙃
    Or you can Remain. Put that to the people tomorrow.
    No Remain option that doesn't address any of the concerns that led to the original Leave vote can be put to the people.
    Agreed
    You wish to ignore the 16 million people who voted to remain? Odd.
    Not really.

    In my experience most Remainers don't want a 2nd Referendum.

    So 17.6m leavers generally dont.

    Half of the 16 million dont

    So i make that roughly 25m against a 2nd Referendum and 8 million for one
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,860
    _Anazina_ said:

    PB, on thirsty Thursday, when all its posters are pissed, has a better standard of debate than Question Time.

    I'm on the Orange Squash!!
  • Options
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    The EU could probably end this now by putting Cameron's deal back on the table in a draft treaty with a promise to look at reform of free movement in future, with some political guidelines appended to it, and to say all sides had learned lessons from this.

    But, that's never going to happen. They're far too myopic and inflexible.

    Yes.

    It's the EU's fault that 50 days, 1hr and 43minutes before a deadline that we set, after offering us a treaty that we asked for, agreed then rejected via a referendum, then offering us another treaty that we asked for, agreed then rejected via a parliamentary vote, that they have not offered us another treaty baked precisely to our taste despite the fact that there is absolutely nobody is in control in British politics who would agree to it, or is even in control period.

    That makes perfect sense.
    It's a Remain option that addresses the fundamental concerns of the British: political union and immigration.

    But, yes, attack it out of hand if you makes you feel better. Both sides have been radicalised so neither are seeing sense at the moment.
    In fairness, it is a good idea. If immediately post-referendum we had sought a better remain deal, and they had offered one, and it had been ratified by another referendum, then it would have worked. And there were other approaches: work out what Parliament would tolerate before invoking Article 50, or settling early on no-deal and toughing it out, or EFTA/EEA, and so on.

    But my point was not whether it was a good idea or not. My point was that it is far too late now.

    Maybe. Both sides have been heavily radicalised.

    That still doesn't mean it wouldn't be the clever thing to do. If getting the UK to Remain in the EU in the long term is the real objective, this would be the basis of a settlement to do just that.

    Going for absolute victory to make a point, now, will simply reopen the wounds in 10-15 years time. The Tories and the eurosceptics won't be out of power forever, regardless of how the next few years play out.
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    _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    dots said:

    We could get #CorbynsCustomsUnion through Parliament But, that's never going to happen. TM is far too myopic and inflexible.

    Its not myopic, a customs union is the wrong thing to do and goes against what we voted for twice.

    In the referendum it was an explicit argument of the Vote Leave campaign that we would sign our own trade deals.
    In the general election it was explicitly in the manifesto that we would sign our own trade deals.

    It isn't myopic to insist we leave the customs union, it is democratic.

    Thommo

    But here’s the acid test. Put it to the people tomorrow.

    Here, folks, everybody. You can have one of these nice proper brexits, or you can have one of these vassaly wish washy custom union brexits where we have the benefits of the custom union but cant sign our own trade deals.

    Go on. You quite confident how the public will vote on that forced choice?

    Put it to the people tomorrow. 🙃
    Or you can Remain. Put that to the people tomorrow.
    No Remain option that doesn't address any of the concerns that led to the original Leave vote can be put to the people.
    Freedom of movement is one of the best aspects of EU membership. A wonderful idea that worked brilliantly and added to the gaiety of cities, businesses and nations. My company has benefitted immeasurably by the employment of great people, with different views and experiences, from across Europe, with no red tape. Brexit is a tragic split.
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    _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Big John

    Agreed- mine too. We all have our off days!
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    _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    _Anazina_ said:

    dots said:

    We could get #CorbynsCustomsUnion through Parliament But, that's never going to happen. TM is far too myopic and inflexible.

    Its not myopic, a customs union is the wrong thing to do and goes against what we voted for twice.

    In the referendum it was an explicit argument of the Vote Leave campaign that we would sign our own trade deals.
    In the general election it was explicitly in the manifesto that we would sign our own trade deals.

    It isn't myopic to insist we leave the customs union, it is democratic.

    Thommo

    But here’s the acid test. Put it to the people tomorrow.

    Here, folks, everybody. You can have one of these nice proper brexits, or you can have one of these vassaly wish washy custom union brexits where we have the benefits of the custom union but cant sign our own trade deals.

    Go on. You quite confident how the public will vote on that forced choice?

    Put it to the people tomorrow. 🙃
    Or you can Remain. Put that to the people tomorrow.
    No Remain option that doesn't address any of the concerns that led to the original Leave vote can be put to the people.
    Agreed
    You wish to ignore the 16 million people who voted to remain? Odd.
    Not really.

    In my experience most Remainers don't want a 2nd Referendum.

    So 17.6m leavers generally dont.

    Half of the 16 million dont

    So i make that roughly 25m against a 2nd Referendum and 8 million for one
    I don’t want a second referendum either! I simply ask for a compromise, Corbo’s CU plus workers’ rights seems to me to do that.
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    _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Michael Forsyth says the Irish border is “not an issue”. Wow.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,781

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    The EU could probably end this now by putting Cameron's deal back on the table in a draft treaty with a promise to look at reform of free movement in future, with some political guidelines appended to it, and to say all sides had learned lessons from this.

    But, that's never going to happen. They're far too myopic and inflexible.

    Yes.

    It's the EU's fault that 50 days, 1hr and 43minutes before a deadline that we set, after offering us a treaty that we asked for, agreed then rejected via a referendum, then offering us another treaty that we asked for, agreed then rejected via a parliamentary vote, that they have not offered us another treaty baked precisely to our taste despite the fact that there is absolutely nobody is in control in British politics who would agree to it, or is even in control period.

    That makes perfect sense.
    It's a Remain option that addresses the fundamental concerns of the British: political union and immigration.

    But, yes, attack it out of hand if you makes you feel better. Both sides have been radicalised so neither are seeing sense at the moment.
    In fairness, it is a good idea. If immediately post-referendum we had sought a better remain deal, and they had offered one, and it had been ratified by another referendum, then it would have worked. And there were other approaches: work out what Parliament would tolerate before invoking Article 50, or settling early on no-deal and toughing it out, or EFTA/EEA, and so on.

    But my point was not whether it was a good idea or not. My point was that it is far too late now.

    Maybe. Both sides have been heavily radicalised.

    That still doesn't mean it wouldn't be the clever thing to do. If getting the UK to Remain in the EU in the long term is the real objective, this would be the basis of a settlement to do just that.

    Going for absolute victory to make a point, now, will simply reopen the wounds in 10-15 years time. The Tories and the eurosceptics won't be out of power forever, regardless of how the next few years play out.
    It's not a bad point, but I don't think anybody is able to get the UK to Remain in the EU, long term or not. The Remainers are fantasising but not planning: the closest it came to a plan was Grieve's machinations or Cooper's amendments, and those were only to delay Brexit, not stop it. The Leavers have institutionalised failing and blaming. I've had reservations about the abilities of British politicians for some time but even I never thought they would fuck up this badly. I understand your point. It's a good point. But it's not doable in 49days 23hrs, 32minutes.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    Oh good, I'm glad someone else admitted that.
This discussion has been closed.