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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Strong showings by the LDs in the local by-elections declared

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited February 8 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Strong showings by the LDs in the local by-elections declared overnight

Bolton & Undercliffe (Bradford) result:

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 3,008
    Pb.com would not be pb.com without LibDems babbling excitedly about Local Election gains.

    Perhaps this is a moment to remember the late Mark Senior, who would surely have enjoyed this thread header.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 2,344

    Pb.com would not be pb.com without LibDems babbling excitedly about Local Election gains.

    Perhaps this is a moment to remember the late Mark Senior, who would surely have enjoyed this thread header.

    It's only polite for us to indulge OGH's passions given his hospitality.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 11,390
    Could we be seeing a revival of the Lab-LD front which pretty much disappeared at the 2017 GE?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 7,715

    Pb.com would not be pb.com without LibDems babbling excitedly about Local Election gains.

    Perhaps this is a moment to remember the late Mark Senior, who would surely have enjoyed this thread header.

    Should we take a Liberal candidate for Mayor of London more seriously?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 76,380
    edited February 8
    I think this May’s locals will be very good for the Lib Dems and very bad for the blue meanies, even before we factor in Brexit.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 19,131

    I think this May’s locals will be very good for the Lib Dems and very bad for the blue meanies.

    Sorry not to have been following but are we in line to get the edit button back?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 19,131

    I think this May’s locals will be very good for the Lib Dems and very bad for the blue meanies.

    Sorry not to have been following but are we in line to get the edit button back?

    Edit: Then again, this works!

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 53,480

    Pb.com would not be pb.com without LibDems babbling excitedly about Local Election gains.

    Perhaps this is a moment to remember the late Mark Senior, who would surely have enjoyed this thread header.

    Should we take a Liberal candidate for Mayor of London more seriously?
    No.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 19,131

    I think this May’s locals will be very good for the Lib Dems and very bad for the blue meanies.

    Sorry not to have been following but are we in line to get the edit button back?

    Edit: Then again, this works!

    Edit II: although it's a shag.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 53,480
    No edit button, the whole world will see my poor spelling :(
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,344
    Scott_P said:
    Seems fair enough, could argue we tried our best if we went down that route. I think I'd favour Norway Plus but if no agreement at all then a referendum is better than no deal.
  • TOPPING said:

    I think this May’s locals will be very good for the Lib Dems and very bad for the blue meanies.

    Sorry not to have been following but are we in line to get the edit button back?

    Edit: Then again, this works!

    I’ll ask Robert, I’d ring him but I think he and his wife might object
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 7,715

    Pb.com would not be pb.com without LibDems babbling excitedly about Local Election gains.

    Perhaps this is a moment to remember the late Mark Senior, who would surely have enjoyed this thread header.

    Should we take a Liberal candidate for Mayor of London more seriously?
    The swing in Lambeth, replicated across London, would give a result of:
    Conservative 28.6%
    Liberal Democrat 27.7%
    Labour 26.0%
    Liberal Democrats to win in the second round?
    Do they have a Mayoral candidate yet?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 19,131

    TOPPING said:

    I think this May’s locals will be very good for the Lib Dems and very bad for the blue meanies.

    Sorry not to have been following but are we in line to get the edit button back?

    Edit: Then again, this works!

    I’ll ask Robert, I’d ring him but I think he and his wife might object
    Thanks
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 19,131

    I think this May’s locals will be very good for the Lib Dems and very bad for the blue meanies.

    I’ll ask Robert, I’d ring him but I think he and his wife might object

    Thanks

    Edit: much appreciated.

  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 869
    They've nowhere else to turn.

    Meanwhile Owen Smith is threatening to quit Labour. This is the double whammy that the inept Corbyn has achieved by finally coming off the fence:

    1. Alienating his own party so he won't have the backing and
    2. Hardening Tory Brexiteers who will never vote for a Corbyn customs union

    As I said before, the numbers are on Theresa May's side if she can get it right.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-47157567
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 19,131

    I’ll ask Robert, I’d ring him but I think he and his wife might object

    Thanks

    Edit: much appreciated.

    Edit II: gah!

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 19,131
    OK that's enough with the editing.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 3,203
    I think this is fairly significant. If there were a local election now I would vote LibDem to show my displeasure at the headbangers having taken over the Conservative Party. A GE would be different as I would have to consider the even darker consequences of a Mr Thicky government.
  • StigglerStiggler Posts: 1
    Good results. Lib Dems can do better and better if they emphasise radical constitutional change for the UK. Corbyn has been moribund.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 29,841
    TOPPING said:

    OK that's enough with the editing.

    You might enjoy this Brexit phantasmagoria.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 5,431
    Robert is in London on business at the moment and I know he's got a pretty packed schedule.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 19,131

    TOPPING said:

    OK that's enough with the editing.

    You might enjoy this Brexit phantasmagoria.
    v good!
  • Pulpstar said:

    No edit button, the whole world will see my poor spelling :(

    Blame autocorrect, it is what I do.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 9,921
    Ah Shadwell, the only place I've voted Labour...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,931

    I think this is fairly significant. If there were a local election now I would vote LibDem to show my displeasure at the headbangers having taken over the Conservative Party. A GE would be different as I would have to consider the even darker consequences of a Mr Thicky government.

    The May Local Elections should give a better picture.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,425

    Pb.com would not be pb.com without LibDems babbling excitedly about Local Election gains.

    Perhaps this is a moment to remember the late Mark Senior, who would surely have enjoyed this thread header.

    Should we take a Liberal candidate for Mayor of London more seriously?
    The swing in Lambeth, replicated across London, would give a result of:
    Conservative 28.6%
    Liberal Democrat 27.7%
    Labour 26.0%
    Liberal Democrats to win in the second round?
    Do they have a Mayoral candidate yet?
    Yes Siobhan Benita. Who stood last time as a pro-Heathrow independent candidate, and is now standing for the anti-Heathrow Lib Dems. Hmmm.....what could possibly go wrong? Don't mention the airport etc etc.

    Sadiq Khan would need to seriously annoy the left / liberal axis to be in danger, and he's shown no sign of that so far.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 8,935
    B&U was traditionally a LibDem ward on Bradford Council. Nothing to see here - just reverting to the mean.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315

    Pb.com would not be pb.com without LibDems babbling excitedly about Local Election gains.

    Perhaps this is a moment to remember the late Mark Senior, who would surely have enjoyed this thread header.

    Should we take a Liberal candidate for Mayor of London more seriously?
    The swing in Lambeth, replicated across London, would give a result of:
    Conservative 28.6%
    Liberal Democrat 27.7%
    Labour 26.0%
    Liberal Democrats to win in the second round?
    Do they have a Mayoral candidate yet?

    Of course in reality that won't happen - in large parts of London (particularly east and south east London) the Lib Dems barely exist as an electoral force. They can pour dozens of activists into one ward to get a good result in a low turnout February by election - but London wide outside their south west London postcode strongholds maybe not so likely.

    In terms of that Lambeth by election it is worth noting that the by election arose because one of the 3 Labour councillors elected last May quit to take up a well paid public sector job. And now another one out of the 3 has just quit to take another well paid public sector job at City Hall - meaning they will have to turn out again in another by election in the same ward in a few weeks.

    If I elected people for a four year term to serve my area and nine months in 2 of the 3 had quit I might be a bit annoyed and make a protest So while Brexit may be a factor - there may also be local factors here.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 3,838

    I think this is fairly significant. If there were a local election now I would vote LibDem to show my displeasure at the headbangers having taken over the Conservative Party. A GE would be different as I would have to consider the even darker consequences of a Mr Thicky government.

    Hi there. Now you hate both Corbyn and Brexit, this is clear. But I wonder which of the two you hate the most. We can test it -

    Assuming the hypothetical of a pre Brexit snap GE with the Cons running under TM on her deal against Labour offering to re-negotiate and put the resulting BINO deal to the public in a Referendum versus Remain -

    How do you think you vote? Do you swallow JC as PM for the chance to storrrrrp Brexit?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,523

    TOPPING said:

    OK that's enough with the editing.

    You might enjoy this Brexit phantasmagoria.
    Amusing though the plot-twist in Tweet 11 is quite apt. Remain is its labyrinth too.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 19,131
    kinabalu said:

    I think this is fairly significant. If there were a local election now I would vote LibDem to show my displeasure at the headbangers having taken over the Conservative Party. A GE would be different as I would have to consider the even darker consequences of a Mr Thicky government.

    Hi there. Now you hate both Corbyn and Brexit, this is clear. But I wonder which of the two you hate the most. We can test it -

    Assuming the hypothetical of a pre Brexit snap GE with the Cons running under TM on her deal against Labour offering to re-negotiate and put the resulting BINO deal to the public in a Referendum versus Remain -

    How do you think you vote? Do you swallow JC as PM for the chance to storrrrrp Brexit?
    I am that person also and my vote would be Cons. Sorry but JC is simply beyond the pale. Stick anyone (and I mean anyone) not in his inner sanctum as Lab leader and my pencil might hover.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,344
    kinabalu said:

    I think this is fairly significant. If there were a local election now I would vote LibDem to show my displeasure at the headbangers having taken over the Conservative Party. A GE would be different as I would have to consider the even darker consequences of a Mr Thicky government.

    Hi there. Now you hate both Corbyn and Brexit, this is clear. But I wonder which of the two you hate the most. We can test it -

    Assuming the hypothetical of a pre Brexit snap GE with the Cons running under TM on her deal against Labour offering to re-negotiate and put the resulting BINO deal to the public in a Referendum versus Remain -

    How do you think you vote? Do you swallow JC as PM for the chance to storrrrrp Brexit?
    He'd change his name to Nigel_Forleave.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 9,921
    brendan16 said:

    Pb.com would not be pb.com without LibDems babbling excitedly about Local Election gains.

    Perhaps this is a moment to remember the late Mark Senior, who would surely have enjoyed this thread header.

    Should we take a Liberal candidate for Mayor of London more seriously?
    The swing in Lambeth, replicated across London, would give a result of:
    Conservative 28.6%
    Liberal Democrat 27.7%
    Labour 26.0%
    Liberal Democrats to win in the second round?
    Do they have a Mayoral candidate yet?

    Of course in reality that won't happen - in large parts of London (particularly east and south east London) the Lib Dems barely exist as an electoral force. They can pour dozens of activists into one ward to get a good result in a low turnout February by election - but London wide outside their south west London postcode strongholds maybe not so likely.

    In terms of that Lambeth by election it is worth noting that the by election arose because one of the 3 Labour councillors elected last May quit to take up a well paid public sector job. And now another one out of the 3 has just quit to take another well paid public sector job at City Hall - meaning they will have to turn out again in another by election in the same ward in a few weeks.

    If I elected people for a four year term to serve my area and nine months in 2 of the 3 had quit I might be a bit annoyed and make a protest So while Brexit may be a factor - there may also be local factors here.
    I agree that a serious challenge from the LDs are unlikely. But I think it could certainly (re)find strength in a much wider area than now.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 15,397
    FPT

    notme2 said:

    Is Motherwell a unionist stronghold? Because QT is the SNP are rubbish from audience member after audience member.

    BBC QT has a very special audience selection policy when in Scotland. The ranting bloke in the red trackie top is on QT for at least his third time, and strangely he always gets to say his piece.

    They send out invites to the local parties, charities and ngos. They don’t want fired up people who are entertaining. They don’t chase particular individuals, but they also don’t want disengaged people who probably don’t vote either.

    Chairman “You sir, at the back”
    Audience member “me? nah, I nee bother voting, ma tea’s on and the wee man is in the bath, i’ll have to go”.
    Yeah, QT just loves engaged voters, though I'm not quite sure where the local aspect applies to Mr Ranty Man.

    This guy, a failed UKIP candidate (something of a tautology in Scotland) & member of the Livi True Blues Loyalist marching band, has thus far travelled to Dundee, Stirling & now Motherwell, and gets to spout off every time; he's certainly putting the miles in for engagement.

    It's the QT freak show policy that has contributed so much to the state we're in now in microcosm.
    I wonder if you've got buried in your post the reason he's been selected. If their quota for the audience says they should have a UKIP supporter in the audience then maybe this guy is the only Kipper supporter they can find?
    I'd suspect like so many others he's transferred to the SCons. In fact he seems quite pally with the actual SCon on the panel, perhaps they were comparing notes on what electoral unpopularity feels like (apparently Billy Moonbat received 34 votes last time he stood).


  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 3,008
    What is probably true is, if the right by-election came up, the libDems could pull off one of the famous by-election shock victories.

    The only ones in the offing, though, appear to be Peterborough and Newport West (where Flynn has said he wants to step down before next GE).

    Neither look very promising.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 15,743

    Pb.com would not be pb.com without LibDems babbling excitedly about Local Election gains.

    Perhaps this is a moment to remember the late Mark Senior, who would surely have enjoyed this thread header.

    Should we take a Liberal candidate for Mayor of London more seriously?
    Not right now. The Lib Dems have nothing like the machine necessary to win an election on that scale.

    Remember that the biggest election the Lib Dems or their predecessors have won in the whole of the last century was Devon County Council*. The Lib Dems have a strong presence in SW London but it'd be a massive ask to go from there to fighting the entire capital.

    That said, if there is a split within Labour, and if the LDs and SDP2 fielded a joint candidate with a strong (presumably ex-Lab) candidate, then it's possible. There'd have to be a big falling out over Brexit, rather than Corbyn individually but that is possible.

    I don't think (?) there's yet a market on the winning party as opposed to winning individual for the next London mayor (and if there was, we'd need to be very careful about the rules, as an LD-supported candidate who was not him- or herself a LD may not count), but it's definitely something to keep an eye on.

    * I'm using as a definition here any of:
    - An overall election, at any of national, devolved or local level;
    - An individual constituency, at any level (i.e. individual under FPTP or AMS, or regional under List or AMS);
    - The UK, for European elections.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 3,203
    I wonder what former TV host Lauren Sanchez first found attractive in the bald billionaire, richest man in the world, Jeff Bezos?
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,425
    I
    kinabalu said:

    I think this is fairly significant. If there were a local election now I would vote LibDem to show my displeasure at the headbangers having taken over the Conservative Party. A GE would be different as I would have to consider the even darker consequences of a Mr Thicky government.

    Hi there. Now you hate both Corbyn and Brexit, this is clear. But I wonder which of the two you hate the most. We can test it -

    Assuming the hypothetical of a pre Brexit snap GE with the Cons running under TM on her deal against Labour offering to re-negotiate and put the resulting BINO deal to the public in a Referendum versus Remain -

    How do you think you vote? Do you swallow JC as PM for the chance to storrrrrp Brexit?
    The question isn't aimed at me, but Labour really did promise that referendum, I'd be sorely tempted to hold my nose on Corbyn and vote for them. If not or the pledge was woolly (options on table etc, anything with the word 'if' in) then I wouldn't.

    And I'm someone who thought I lived in a safe seat till 2017 and now live in a marginal.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,733
    kinabalu said:



    How do you think you vote? Do you swallow JC as PM for the chance to storrrrrp Brexit?

    I'd prefer Caroline Lucas as PM but I'd take JC (even though he's a terrible wanker) if it meant no Brexit.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 15,743
    Stiggler said:

    Good results. Lib Dems can do better and better if they emphasise radical constitutional change for the UK. Corbyn has been moribund.

    Yes, that's always been an issue keenly brought up on the doorstep.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,408
    tlg86 said:

    Could we be seeing a revival of the Lab-LD front which pretty much disappeared at the 2017 GE?

    Not in the South West. At least, not on any of the doors I’ve knocked on.

    How about in Torbay, @MarqueeMark?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,535
    Cheers for this, Mr. Hayfield Smithson.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 3,203

    kinabalu said:

    I think this is fairly significant. If there were a local election now I would vote LibDem to show my displeasure at the headbangers having taken over the Conservative Party. A GE would be different as I would have to consider the even darker consequences of a Mr Thicky government.

    Hi there. Now you hate both Corbyn and Brexit, this is clear. But I wonder which of the two you hate the most. We can test it -

    Assuming the hypothetical of a pre Brexit snap GE with the Cons running under TM on her deal against Labour offering to re-negotiate and put the resulting BINO deal to the public in a Referendum versus Remain -

    How do you think you vote? Do you swallow JC as PM for the chance to storrrrrp Brexit?
    He'd change his name to Nigel_Forleave.
    Hmm a tricky one. Which version of national self harm does one consider to be least unpalatable? I am going to do a Corbyn and sit on the fence. I am really not sure which I would prefer least to be honest. It is probably the scenario where I would vote LibDem
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 15,743
    On topic, I wouldn't get too excited about LD scores in local by-elections, which have flattered to deceive before May elections more than once.

    The Bradford ward used to be the safest LD ward in the District, where they polled 60%+, so while it's a good result, they were working off what ought to be a strong local base.

    I don't know anything about the others but LDs do seem far keener to contest local by-elections in the depths of winter than other parties.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 1,107

    I wonder what former TV host Lauren Sanchez first found attractive in the bald billionaire, richest man in the world, Jeff Bezos?

    Probably that he was married. Forbidden fruit, and all that.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,344

    kinabalu said:

    I think this is fairly significant. If there were a local election now I would vote LibDem to show my displeasure at the headbangers having taken over the Conservative Party. A GE would be different as I would have to consider the even darker consequences of a Mr Thicky government.

    Hi there. Now you hate both Corbyn and Brexit, this is clear. But I wonder which of the two you hate the most. We can test it -

    Assuming the hypothetical of a pre Brexit snap GE with the Cons running under TM on her deal against Labour offering to re-negotiate and put the resulting BINO deal to the public in a Referendum versus Remain -

    How do you think you vote? Do you swallow JC as PM for the chance to storrrrrp Brexit?
    He'd change his name to Nigel_Forleave.
    Hmm a tricky one. Which version of national self harm does one consider to be least unpalatable? I am going to do a Corbyn and sit on the fence. I am really not sure which I would prefer least to be honest. It is probably the scenario where I would vote LibDem
    My mistake, was half joking but I assumed the answer was different.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 3,203
    Dura_Ace said:

    kinabalu said:



    How do you think you vote? Do you swallow JC as PM for the chance to storrrrrp Brexit?

    I'd prefer Caroline Lucas as PM but I'd take JC (even though he's a terrible wanker) if it meant no Brexit.
    But you would probably have to consider that it would not mean this. He is lazy, dense and also a liar. Anything could result form a Corbyn led government, anything that is, except a good outcome. What a sorry state of affairs our country has got itself into!
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 3,203
    Endillion said:

    I wonder what former TV host Lauren Sanchez first found attractive in the bald billionaire, richest man in the world, Jeff Bezos?

    Probably that he was married. Forbidden fruit, and all that.
    or perhaps his overwhelming good looks
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,015
    I really have a very difficult decision at the next election. I had been assuming I'd be abstaining, but the more I think about the fact that my MP is Bernard Jenkin, the more I feel I need to vote against him. But I have huge difficulty voting for the nearest challenger party, Labour, while Jeremy Corbyn is leader of the opposition. I think I still abstain. Maybe I vote Lib Dem.

    Hmm.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 3,008
    tpfkar said:

    I

    kinabalu said:

    I think this is fairly significant. If there were a local election now I would vote LibDem to show my displeasure at the headbangers having taken over the Conservative Party. A GE would be different as I would have to consider the even darker consequences of a Mr Thicky government.

    Hi there. Now you hate both Corbyn and Brexit, this is clear. But I wonder which of the two you hate the most. We can test it -

    Assuming the hypothetical of a pre Brexit snap GE with the Cons running under TM on her deal against Labour offering to re-negotiate and put the resulting BINO deal to the public in a Referendum versus Remain -

    How do you think you vote? Do you swallow JC as PM for the chance to storrrrrp Brexit?
    The question isn't aimed at me, but Labour really did promise that referendum, I'd be sorely tempted to hold my nose on Corbyn and vote for them. If not or the pledge was woolly (options on table etc, anything with the word 'if' in) then I wouldn't.

    And I'm someone who thought I lived in a safe seat till 2017 and now live in a marginal.
    I am surprised anyone sensible could think another referendum was a good idea.

    If you want to remain, then the best plan is the Quebec one. Muddle and obscurity.

    The Quebec Independence referendum of 1995 was provoked by attempts by Mulroney to get Quebec to sign the Canadian constitution (1982).

    After the referendum was narrowly lost, the Federalists simply didn’t make the matter an issue anymore. There is a helpful ambiguity about everything.

    Quebec is de facto a part of Canada. But, it has not acknowledged or signed the Canadian constitution. The Canadian Supreme Court helpfully weighed in by saying Quebec did not have to.

    Any attempt to “clarify” the position of Quebec would undoubtedly rekindle the PQ and the nationalists and there will be another independence referendum, and probably the break-up Canada.

    Sometimes muddle is the best plan.

    I can imagine if the Eu extended Article 50 by another 2 years, and then another 2 years, and so, it would work. The UK would be part of the Eu, and on the point of leaving, but never actually leaving. Just like Quebec and Canada.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 3,203

    I really have a very difficult decision at the next election. I had been assuming I'd be abstaining, but the more I think about the fact that my MP is Bernard Jenkin, the more I feel I need to vote against him. But I have huge difficulty voting for the nearest challenger party, Labour, while Jeremy Corbyn is leader of the opposition. I think I still abstain. Maybe I vote Lib Dem.

    Hmm.

    One should never abstain, IMHO. People have fought for the right for you to vote. You should vote for whom you find the least repulsive.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 3,838
    TOPPING said:

    I am that person also and my vote would be Cons. Sorry but JC is simply beyond the pale. Stick anyone (and I mean anyone) not in his inner sanctum as Lab leader and my pencil might hover.

    Yes, you too of course. And your answer is the one I would have guessed.

    I think this is interesting because if there were such an election Labour would have a big decision to make. A decision based on how they answer the following question -

    If we swing for Referendum/Remain will the hit to our blue collar base be outweighed by a surge in our favour of centrist and even centre-right Remainers lending us their vote? Will the impact on seats be a net positive or negative?

    Tough call, I think.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,015

    Endillion said:

    I wonder what former TV host Lauren Sanchez first found attractive in the bald billionaire, richest man in the world, Jeff Bezos?

    Probably that he was married. Forbidden fruit, and all that.
    or perhaps his overwhelming good looks
    When I put my picture up on pb before Christmas several people said I look like Jeff Bezos. It's clearly his looks.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 3,008
    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    I am that person also and my vote would be Cons. Sorry but JC is simply beyond the pale. Stick anyone (and I mean anyone) not in his inner sanctum as Lab leader and my pencil might hover.

    Yes, you too of course. And your answer is the one I would have guessed.

    I think this is interesting because if there were such an election Labour would have a big decision to make. A decision based on how they answer the following question -

    If we swing for Referendum/Remain will the hit to our blue collar base be outweighed by a surge in our favour of centrist and even centre-right Remainers lending us their vote? Will the impact on seats be a net positive or negative?

    Tough call, I think.
    I think whatever they do, they lose votes from 2017.

    Corby found the sweet spot in which both Remainers & Leavers thought he was on their side.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,015

    I really have a very difficult decision at the next election. I had been assuming I'd be abstaining, but the more I think about the fact that my MP is Bernard Jenkin, the more I feel I need to vote against him. But I have huge difficulty voting for the nearest challenger party, Labour, while Jeremy Corbyn is leader of the opposition. I think I still abstain. Maybe I vote Lib Dem.

    Hmm.

    One should never abstain, IMHO. People have fought for the right for you to vote. You should vote for whom you find the least repulsive.
    I abstained last time and I remain very happy with that decision. I refuse to choose between Ebola and anthrax.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 3,203

    Endillion said:

    I wonder what former TV host Lauren Sanchez first found attractive in the bald billionaire, richest man in the world, Jeff Bezos?

    Probably that he was married. Forbidden fruit, and all that.
    or perhaps his overwhelming good looks
    When I put my picture up on pb before Christmas several people said I look like Jeff Bezos. It's clearly his looks.
    Ah, well perhaps in that case, perhaps I misjudged Lauren Sanchez's motivations.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 7,715
    So this is interesting. It looks like there was too much wind for the Irish grid last night and they had to stop a large number of the turbines from generating electricity. This provides an opportunity for someone to store that energy and sell it back later. These opportunities are only going to grow as more wind is added to the grid - and then we'll have electricity from the wind even when the wind isn't blowing.
    http://smartgriddashboard.eirgrid.com/#all/wind
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 3,838
    Dura_Ace said:

    I'd prefer Caroline Lucas as PM but I'd take JC (even though he's a terrible wanker) if it meant no Brexit.

    Right. But given the Lucas comment I am guessing you are Left inclined in any case?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 19,131

    I really have a very difficult decision at the next election. I had been assuming I'd be abstaining, but the more I think about the fact that my MP is Bernard Jenkin, the more I feel I need to vote against him. But I have huge difficulty voting for the nearest challenger party, Labour, while Jeremy Corbyn is leader of the opposition. I think I still abstain. Maybe I vote Lib Dem.

    Hmm.

    Yes this is the "Foremain Dilemma" (or the TOPPING one, for that matter).

    The short answer is that one must vote and hence it comes down to the party most likely to do least harm. There is no way on the planet that anyone sane could think that a Bernard Jenkin's-populated Conservative Party would not do immense damage to the UK.

    However. On the other side is Jeremy Corbyn.

    Hence for me, of the choices, available, the party which is not lead by Jeremy Corbyn will always be better than a party lead by Jeremy Corbyn.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 11,619


    I am surprised anyone sensible could think another referendum was a good idea.

    If you want to remain, then the best plan is the Quebec one. Muddle and obscurity.

    The Quebec Independence referendum of 1995 was provoked by attempts by Mulroney to get Quebec to sign the Canadian constitution (1982).

    After the referendum was narrowly lost, the Federalists simply didn’t make the matter an issue anymore. There is a helpful ambiguity about everything.

    Quebec is de facto a part of Canada. But, it has not acknowledged or signed the Canadian constitution. The Canadian Supreme Court helpfully weighed in by saying Quebec did not have to.

    Any attempt to “clarify” the position of Quebec would undoubtedly rekindle the PQ and the nationalists and there will be another independence referendum, and probably the break-up Canada.

    Sometimes muddle is the best plan.

    I can imagine if the Eu extended Article 50 by another 2 years, and then another 2 years, and so, it would work. The UK would be part of the Eu, and on the point of leaving, but never actually leaving. Just like Quebec and Canada.

    That may well happen and I agree it's the path of least resistance. But it really sucks for people relying on freedom of movement to go for years without knowing whether they'll have the right to stay in their homes.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 3,203
    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    I am that person also and my vote would be Cons. Sorry but JC is simply beyond the pale. Stick anyone (and I mean anyone) not in his inner sanctum as Lab leader and my pencil might hover.

    Yes, you too of course. And your answer is the one I would have guessed.

    I think this is interesting because if there were such an election Labour would have a big decision to make. A decision based on how they answer the following question -

    If we swing for Referendum/Remain will the hit to our blue collar base be outweighed by a surge in our favour of centrist and even centre-right Remainers lending us their vote? Will the impact on seats be a net positive or negative?

    Tough call, I think.
    If they changed that thick numpty for someone who was more centrist and had half a brain they could be looking at 1997 type landslide. The first will not happen, so the second certainly won't either
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 15,153
    If the Lib-Dems do well at this years locals maybe that will be Vince's swan-song? :D
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 8,935

    I really have a very difficult decision at the next election. I had been assuming I'd be abstaining, but the more I think about the fact that my MP is Bernard Jenkin, the more I feel I need to vote against him. But I have huge difficulty voting for the nearest challenger party, Labour, while Jeremy Corbyn is leader of the opposition. I think I still abstain. Maybe I vote Lib Dem.

    Hmm.

    Sounds like you need to spoil your ballot, with a personal message for Jenkin. But don't draw a rude picture next to his name, as that will be construed as a vote in favour!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 3,838

    He'd change his name to Nigel_Forleave.

    :-) ... Well he's flirting with Lib Dem - that's a result.

    So which way do you think Labour would face in a snap pre-Brexit GE?

    Would they offer just the softer version of it or would they cross the rubicon and offer the Referendum?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 11,619

    I really have a very difficult decision at the next election. I had been assuming I'd be abstaining, but the more I think about the fact that my MP is Bernard Jenkin, the more I feel I need to vote against him. But I have huge difficulty voting for the nearest challenger party, Labour, while Jeremy Corbyn is leader of the opposition. I think I still abstain. Maybe I vote Lib Dem.

    Hmm.

    One should never abstain, IMHO. People have fought for the right for you to vote. You should vote for whom you find the least repulsive.
    I abstained last time and I remain very happy with that decision. I refuse to choose between Ebola and anthrax.
    That's highly irresponsible. Aside from your own welfare, one is highly contagious and the other one isn't.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 11,792

    I really have a very difficult decision at the next election. I had been assuming I'd be abstaining, but the more I think about the fact that my MP is Bernard Jenkin, the more I feel I need to vote against him. But I have huge difficulty voting for the nearest challenger party, Labour, while Jeremy Corbyn is leader of the opposition. I think I still abstain. Maybe I vote Lib Dem.

    Hmm.

    14000 majority.

    Clearly BREXIT is popular in your neighbourhood
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 3,203
    TOPPING said:

    I really have a very difficult decision at the next election. I had been assuming I'd be abstaining, but the more I think about the fact that my MP is Bernard Jenkin, the more I feel I need to vote against him. But I have huge difficulty voting for the nearest challenger party, Labour, while Jeremy Corbyn is leader of the opposition. I think I still abstain. Maybe I vote Lib Dem.

    Hmm.

    Yes this is the "Foremain Dilemma" (or the TOPPING one, for that matter).

    The short answer is that one must vote and hence it comes down to the party most likely to do least harm. There is no way on the planet that anyone sane could think that a Bernard Jenkin's-populated Conservative Party would not do immense damage to the UK.

    However. On the other side is Jeremy Corbyn.

    Hence for me, of the choices, available, the party which is not lead by Jeremy Corbyn will always be better than a party lead by Jeremy Corbyn.
    It is difficult to deny your logic. The problem in said dilemma is; a Corbyn Government, massively damaging though it would be, might well be rendered less damaging by his immense stupidity, and ultimately he and his government could be voted out. Reversing the damaging effects of Brexit would be next to impossible for another 25 years.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 29,841
    https://news.sky.com/story/sky-data-poll-irish-overwhelmingly-back-governments-pressure-on-backstop-11629673

    79% of people in Ireland say the the government should hold out for the backstop even if it leads to no deal.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,523
    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think this is fairly significant. If there were a local election now I would vote LibDem to show my displeasure at the headbangers having taken over the Conservative Party. A GE would be different as I would have to consider the even darker consequences of a Mr Thicky government.

    Hi there. Now you hate both Corbyn and Brexit, this is clear. But I wonder which of the two you hate the most. We can test it -

    Assuming the hypothetical of a pre Brexit snap GE with the Cons running under TM on her deal against Labour offering to re-negotiate and put the resulting BINO deal to the public in a Referendum versus Remain -

    How do you think you vote? Do you swallow JC as PM for the chance to storrrrrp Brexit?
    I am that person also and my vote would be Cons. Sorry but JC is simply beyond the pale. Stick anyone (and I mean anyone) not in his inner sanctum as Lab leader and my pencil might hover.
    Interesting.

    What if it was JC vs May (or A N Other) saying No Deal?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,523

    https://news.sky.com/story/sky-data-poll-irish-overwhelmingly-back-governments-pressure-on-backstop-11629673

    79% of people in Ireland say the the government should hold out for the backstop even if it leads to no deal.

    If they're OK with no deal, why shouldn't we be?

    No deal = no backstop.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Endillion said:

    I wonder what former TV host Lauren Sanchez first found attractive in the bald billionaire, richest man in the world, Jeff Bezos?

    Probably that he was married. Forbidden fruit, and all that.
    or perhaps his overwhelming good looks
    When I put my picture up on pb before Christmas several people said I look like Jeff Bezos. It's clearly his looks.
    Ah, well perhaps in that case, perhaps I misjudged Lauren Sanchez's motivations.
    For a women, it is not all about a man's look. His personality counts for a lot. Maybe he is charming,witty, attentive and makes her laugh?

    BTW - i skip out for a few days and the forum looks .... errr... different
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,062

    TOPPING said:

    I really have a very difficult decision at the next election. I had been assuming I'd be abstaining, but the more I think about the fact that my MP is Bernard Jenkin, the more I feel I need to vote against him. But I have huge difficulty voting for the nearest challenger party, Labour, while Jeremy Corbyn is leader of the opposition. I think I still abstain. Maybe I vote Lib Dem.

    Hmm.

    Yes this is the "Foremain Dilemma" (or the TOPPING one, for that matter).

    The short answer is that one must vote and hence it comes down to the party most likely to do least harm. There is no way on the planet that anyone sane could think that a Bernard Jenkin's-populated Conservative Party would not do immense damage to the UK.

    However. On the other side is Jeremy Corbyn.

    Hence for me, of the choices, available, the party which is not lead by Jeremy Corbyn will always be better than a party lead by Jeremy Corbyn.
    It is difficult to deny your logic. The problem in said dilemma is; a Corbyn Government, massively damaging though it would be, might well be rendered less damaging by his immense stupidity, and ultimately he and his government could be voted out. Reversing the damaging effects of Brexit would be next to impossible for another 25 years.
    It’s clear that the Labour leadership wants and is actively pursuing Brexit. You would have both.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 7,715

    I really have a very difficult decision at the next election. I had been assuming I'd be abstaining, but the more I think about the fact that my MP is Bernard Jenkin, the more I feel I need to vote against him. But I have huge difficulty voting for the nearest challenger party, Labour, while Jeremy Corbyn is leader of the opposition. I think I still abstain. Maybe I vote Lib Dem.

    Hmm.

    What you need is an erudite local candidate - possibly one with a passing resemblance to popular billionaire Jeff Bezos - who can unite the opposition to the incumbent.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 3,203

    I really have a very difficult decision at the next election. I had been assuming I'd be abstaining, but the more I think about the fact that my MP is Bernard Jenkin, the more I feel I need to vote against him. But I have huge difficulty voting for the nearest challenger party, Labour, while Jeremy Corbyn is leader of the opposition. I think I still abstain. Maybe I vote Lib Dem.

    Hmm.

    Sounds like you need to spoil your ballot, with a personal message for Jenkin. But don't draw a rude picture next to his name, as that will be construed as a vote in favour!
    When the likes Bernard Jenkin and Mark Francois see all those marks on the ballot papers they must often wonder why so many people have taken to forging their respective signatures
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Where has the edit button gone?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 8,935

    https://news.sky.com/story/sky-data-poll-irish-overwhelmingly-back-governments-pressure-on-backstop-11629673

    79% of people in Ireland say the the government should hold out for the backstop even if it leads to no deal.

    If they're OK with no deal, why shouldn't we be?

    No deal = no backstop.
    = razor wire, big dogs and watch towers?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 3,838
    tpfkar said:

    The question isn't aimed at me, but Labour really did promise that referendum, I'd be sorely tempted to hold my nose on Corbyn and vote for them. If not or the pledge was woolly (options on table etc, anything with the word 'if' in) then I wouldn't.

    And I'm someone who thought I lived in a safe seat till 2017 and now live in a marginal.

    Well the Q was aimed at anybody who is both anti Corbyn and anti Brexit. It covers an awful lot of people which is why I find it fascinating.

    So, right, you would lend Lab your vote. That is 2 of the 6 who have answered to say that, the other 4 would not. 33%. Small sample, I need quite a few more data points before I can conclude and publish in one of the nationals, but very very interesting.

    Congratulations BTW on living in a marginal. My seat (Hampstead & Kilburn) has gone the other way. It used to be an incredibly tight 3 way marginal (almost the only one in the country) but it is now rock solid safe for the Reds.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,344
    kinabalu said:

    He'd change his name to Nigel_Forleave.

    :-) ... Well he's flirting with Lib Dem - that's a result.

    So which way do you think Labour would face in a snap pre-Brexit GE?

    Would they offer just the softer version of it or would they cross the rubicon and offer the Referendum?
    I've heard a few suggest they would go for the soft Brexit with referendum to confirm option, it's that or just go for soft Brexit. Tough to call, maybe the one with a referendum, I couldn't call it really but I lean that way.

    Although there are a fair few in Labour against it, if it is the manifesto I imagine most would just accept it rather than leave.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 3,203

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think this is fairly significant. If there were a local election now I would vote LibDem to show my displeasure at the headbangers having taken over the Conservative Party. A GE would be different as I would have to consider the even darker consequences of a Mr Thicky government.

    Hi there. Now you hate both Corbyn and Brexit, this is clear. But I wonder which of the two you hate the most. We can test it -

    Assuming the hypothetical of a pre Brexit snap GE with the Cons running under TM on her deal against Labour offering to re-negotiate and put the resulting BINO deal to the public in a Referendum versus Remain -

    How do you think you vote? Do you swallow JC as PM for the chance to storrrrrp Brexit?
    I am that person also and my vote would be Cons. Sorry but JC is simply beyond the pale. Stick anyone (and I mean anyone) not in his inner sanctum as Lab leader and my pencil might hover.
    Interesting.

    What if it was JC vs May (or A N Other) saying No Deal?
    Then I would have to reassess Mrs May and say that she is even thicker than Jeremy Corbyn, which really would be saying something.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 15,153

    I really have a very difficult decision at the next election. I had been assuming I'd be abstaining, but the more I think about the fact that my MP is Bernard Jenkin, the more I feel I need to vote against him. But I have huge difficulty voting for the nearest challenger party, Labour, while Jeremy Corbyn is leader of the opposition. I think I still abstain. Maybe I vote Lib Dem.

    Hmm.


    Maybe you'll have Chukka's new "centrist" party to vote for by then? :)
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,523

    https://news.sky.com/story/sky-data-poll-irish-overwhelmingly-back-governments-pressure-on-backstop-11629673

    79% of people in Ireland say the the government should hold out for the backstop even if it leads to no deal.

    If they're OK with no deal, why shouldn't we be?

    No deal = no backstop.
    = razor wire, big dogs and watch towers?
    No. That's the border within "A customs union" that you're thinking of.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/hungary-eyes-massive-new-fence-as-eu-turkey-refugee-deal-falters-1.2769343
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 19,131

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think this is fairly significant. If there were a local election now I would vote LibDem to show my displeasure at the headbangers having taken over the Conservative Party. A GE would be different as I would have to consider the even darker consequences of a Mr Thicky government.

    Hi there. Now you hate both Corbyn and Brexit, this is clear. But I wonder which of the two you hate the most. We can test it -

    Assuming the hypothetical of a pre Brexit snap GE with the Cons running under TM on her deal against Labour offering to re-negotiate and put the resulting BINO deal to the public in a Referendum versus Remain -

    How do you think you vote? Do you swallow JC as PM for the chance to storrrrrp Brexit?
    I am that person also and my vote would be Cons. Sorry but JC is simply beyond the pale. Stick anyone (and I mean anyone) not in his inner sanctum as Lab leader and my pencil might hover.
    Interesting.

    What if it was JC vs May (or A N Other) saying No Deal?
    If it was JC (deal) vs JRM or Boris (no deal) - well here's the thing, for all their huffing and puffing I don't think any politician who was leading their party could ever advocate no deal. They may say they are happy with it now but either such a politician wouldn't get to lead the party (eg. JRM) or once in charge, would change their tune a la May's no deal not now being better than a bad deal.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 3,203

    I really have a very difficult decision at the next election. I had been assuming I'd be abstaining, but the more I think about the fact that my MP is Bernard Jenkin, the more I feel I need to vote against him. But I have huge difficulty voting for the nearest challenger party, Labour, while Jeremy Corbyn is leader of the opposition. I think I still abstain. Maybe I vote Lib Dem.

    Hmm.

    14000 majority.

    Clearly BREXIT is popular in your neighbourhood
    In that constituency you could put up a parrot saying "I support remain, I support remain", and if it were wearing a blue rosette it would probably still get a 14000 majority as long as Mr Thicky is LOTO
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,931

    I really have a very difficult decision at the next election. I had been assuming I'd be abstaining, but the more I think about the fact that my MP is Bernard Jenkin, the more I feel I need to vote against him. But I have huge difficulty voting for the nearest challenger party, Labour, while Jeremy Corbyn is leader of the opposition. I think I still abstain. Maybe I vote Lib Dem.

    Hmm.

    Sounds like you need to spoil your ballot, with a personal message for Jenkin. But don't draw a rude picture next to his name, as that will be construed as a vote in favour!
    When the likes Bernard Jenkin and Mark Francois see all those marks on the ballot papers they must often wonder why so many people have taken to forging their respective signatures
    On the subject of Mark Francois personal charm, there was this tweet this week.

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,523
    Sorry wrong link and can't edit. That's the border with Serbia, this is the EU's border fence with its "customs union" partner Turkey. Complete with barbwire.

    https://euobserver.com/fortress-eu/118565
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,344
    kinabalu said:

    tpfkar said:

    The question isn't aimed at me, but Labour really did promise that referendum, I'd be sorely tempted to hold my nose on Corbyn and vote for them. If not or the pledge was woolly (options on table etc, anything with the word 'if' in) then I wouldn't.

    And I'm someone who thought I lived in a safe seat till 2017 and now live in a marginal.

    Well the Q was aimed at anybody who is both anti Corbyn and anti Brexit. It covers an awful lot of people which is why I find it fascinating.

    So, right, you would lend Lab your vote. That is 2 of the 6 who have answered to say that, the other 4 would not. 33%. Small sample, I need quite a few more data points before I can conclude and publish in one of the nationals, but very very interesting.

    Congratulations BTW on living in a marginal. My seat (Hampstead & Kilburn) has gone the other way. It used to be an incredibly tight 3 way marginal (almost the only one in the country) but it is now rock solid safe for the Reds.
    There have never been enough willing Labour converts on the basis of remain for Labour just to come out for it, the Conservatives needed to thoroughly fail at Brexit first to make that movement from Labour electorally possible without it being harmful.

    From the yougov polling on voting reasons after the last election if both Tories and Labour lose voters who prioritised Brexit as the reason for their vote Tories lose out more.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,733
    kinabalu said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I'd prefer Caroline Lucas as PM but I'd take JC (even though he's a terrible wanker) if it meant no Brexit.

    Right. But given the Lucas comment I am guessing you are Left inclined in any case?
    Steiner-Vallentyne school left libertarian/Radical centrist/Leninist/Leeds Utd supporter.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 3,838
    TOPPING said:

    Yes this is the "Foremain Dilemma" (or the TOPPING one, for that matter).

    The short answer is that one must vote and hence it comes down to the party most likely to do least harm. There is no way on the planet that anyone sane could think that a Bernard Jenkin's-populated Conservative Party would not do immense damage to the UK.

    However. On the other side is Jeremy Corbyn.

    Hence for me, of the choices, available, the party which is not lead by Jeremy Corbyn will always be better than a party lead by Jeremy Corbyn.

    But Corbyn is for Christmas, Brexit is forever.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,585
    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    Yes this is the "Foremain Dilemma" (or the TOPPING one, for that matter).

    The short answer is that one must vote and hence it comes down to the party most likely to do least harm. There is no way on the planet that anyone sane could think that a Bernard Jenkin's-populated Conservative Party would not do immense damage to the UK.

    However. On the other side is Jeremy Corbyn.

    Hence for me, of the choices, available, the party which is not lead by Jeremy Corbyn will always be better than a party lead by Jeremy Corbyn.

    But Corbyn is for Christmas, Brexit is forever.
    And both are for April Fool's day.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 14,807

    I really have a very difficult decision at the next election. I had been assuming I'd be abstaining, but the more I think about the fact that my MP is Bernard Jenkin, the more I feel I need to vote against him. But I have huge difficulty voting for the nearest challenger party, Labour, while Jeremy Corbyn is leader of the opposition. I think I still abstain. Maybe I vote Lib Dem.

    Hmm.

    How about the Lib Dems or the Greens?

    I am now in a safe Labour seat. NFW will I vote Labour while Corbyn is in charge. Nor will I vote Tory (and the local Tory candidate last time was a muppet anyway). The Lib Dems have good candidates here but are nowhere so voting for them is pointless - other than to keep their spirits up and as a reward for my really excellent local Lib Dem councillor.

    So my vote at another GE is pretty pointless. I may as well stay in bed.

    It is, in part, the reason why I would quite like another referendum on this Brexit-shmexit nonsense. At least my vote in that would count, a bit. And, yes, I am aware of the obvious ironies, before everyone jumps down my throat.

    PS I assume Brexit wasn't sorted yesterday while I was busy having a birthday. My son put one candle on my cake, saying that it was probably best to forget about the decades. How very true. :(

    In which case, what will we talk about.......?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 3,838
    Alastair Meeks, you simply HAVE to vote against Sir Bernard Jenkin! If you didn't you would need to remove every single mirror in your house.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 19,131

    kinabalu said:

    tpfkar said:

    The question isn't aimed at me, but Labour really did promise that referendum, I'd be sorely tempted to hold my nose on Corbyn and vote for them. If not or the pledge was woolly (options on table etc, anything with the word 'if' in) then I wouldn't.

    And I'm someone who thought I lived in a safe seat till 2017 and now live in a marginal.

    Well the Q was aimed at anybody who is both anti Corbyn and anti Brexit. It covers an awful lot of people which is why I find it fascinating.

    So, right, you would lend Lab your vote. That is 2 of the 6 who have answered to say that, the other 4 would not. 33%. Small sample, I need quite a few more data points before I can conclude and publish in one of the nationals, but very very interesting.

    Congratulations BTW on living in a marginal. My seat (Hampstead & Kilburn) has gone the other way. It used to be an incredibly tight 3 way marginal (almost the only one in the country) but it is now rock solid safe for the Reds.
    There have never been enough willing Labour converts on the basis of remain for Labour just to come out for it, the Conservatives needed to thoroughly fail at Brexit first to make that movement from Labour electorally possible without it being harmful.

    From the yougov polling on voting reasons after the last election if both Tories and Labour lose voters who prioritised Brexit as the reason for their vote Tories lose out more.
    What about people like me? If the Cons were lead by an ERG-o-loon and you lot were lead by someone unrelated by politics to TheJezziah, then I would seriously consider voting Lab. Now of course, what I am actually doing is hoping Lab will become less like Lab and more like the Cons, in a Blair, centre-ground-y kind of way and I perfectly understand if you and JC's supporters reject that.

    But as we have seen with the way that JC treats the membership (shibboleth when it comes to leader, ignorable irritant when it comes to EURef2) it's a trait in JC that sets this apart from normal Lab vs Cons rivalry.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 14,807

    TOPPING said:

    I really have a very difficult decision at the next election. I had been assuming I'd be abstaining, but the more I think about the fact that my MP is Bernard Jenkin, the more I feel I need to vote against him. But I have huge difficulty voting for the nearest challenger party, Labour, while Jeremy Corbyn is leader of the opposition. I think I still abstain. Maybe I vote Lib Dem.

    Hmm.

    Yes this is the "Foremain Dilemma" (or the TOPPING one, for that matter).

    The short answer is that one must vote and hence it comes down to the party most likely to do least harm. There is no way on the planet that anyone sane could think that a Bernard Jenkin's-populated Conservative Party would not do immense damage to the UK.

    However. On the other side is Jeremy Corbyn.

    Hence for me, of the choices, available, the party which is not lead by Jeremy Corbyn will always be better than a party lead by Jeremy Corbyn.
    It is difficult to deny your logic. The problem in said dilemma is; a Corbyn Government, massively damaging though it would be, might well be rendered less damaging by his immense stupidity, and ultimately he and his government could be voted out. Reversing the damaging effects of Brexit would be next to impossible for another 25 years.
    Stupid people can cause a lot of damage. Foolish to think that his stupidity (I think he is cunning - even if he is not academically intelligent) will render his government less damaging than it might otherwise be. And he has smart people around him.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,585

    I really have a very difficult decision at the next election. I had been assuming I'd be abstaining, but the more I think about the fact that my MP is Bernard Jenkin, the more I feel I need to vote against him. But I have huge difficulty voting for the nearest challenger party, Labour, while Jeremy Corbyn is leader of the opposition. I think I still abstain. Maybe I vote Lib Dem.

    Hmm.

    You could always leave...

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 19,131
    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    Yes this is the "Foremain Dilemma" (or the TOPPING one, for that matter).

    The short answer is that one must vote and hence it comes down to the party most likely to do least harm. There is no way on the planet that anyone sane could think that a Bernard Jenkin's-populated Conservative Party would not do immense damage to the UK.

    However. On the other side is Jeremy Corbyn.

    Hence for me, of the choices, available, the party which is not lead by Jeremy Corbyn will always be better than a party lead by Jeremy Corbyn.

    But Corbyn is for Christmas, Brexit is forever.
    As an ex-City type you should be aware of the importance of the early years in any DCF analysis.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,523
    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    Yes this is the "Foremain Dilemma" (or the TOPPING one, for that matter).

    The short answer is that one must vote and hence it comes down to the party most likely to do least harm. There is no way on the planet that anyone sane could think that a Bernard Jenkin's-populated Conservative Party would not do immense damage to the UK.

    However. On the other side is Jeremy Corbyn.

    Hence for me, of the choices, available, the party which is not lead by Jeremy Corbyn will always be better than a party lead by Jeremy Corbyn.

    But Corbyn is for Christmas, Brexit is forever.
    And both are for April Fool's day.
    It does amuse me that if May keeps to her timescale the first [working] day of Brexit is indeed April Fool's Day.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 14,807

    Endillion said:

    I wonder what former TV host Lauren Sanchez first found attractive in the bald billionaire, richest man in the world, Jeff Bezos?

    Probably that he was married. Forbidden fruit, and all that.
    or perhaps his overwhelming good looks
    When I put my picture up on pb before Christmas several people said I look like Jeff Bezos. It's clearly his looks.
    Ah, well perhaps in that case, perhaps I misjudged Lauren Sanchez's motivations.
    For a women, it is not all about a man's look. His personality counts for a lot. Maybe he is charming,witty, attentive and makes her laugh?

    True - but having lots of money and a nice bottom also helps. :)
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 3,203
    Foxy said:

    I really have a very difficult decision at the next election. I had been assuming I'd be abstaining, but the more I think about the fact that my MP is Bernard Jenkin, the more I feel I need to vote against him. But I have huge difficulty voting for the nearest challenger party, Labour, while Jeremy Corbyn is leader of the opposition. I think I still abstain. Maybe I vote Lib Dem.

    Hmm.

    Sounds like you need to spoil your ballot, with a personal message for Jenkin. But don't draw a rude picture next to his name, as that will be construed as a vote in favour!
    When the likes Bernard Jenkin and Mark Francois see all those marks on the ballot papers they must often wonder why so many people have taken to forging their respective signatures
    On the subject of Mark Francois personal charm, there was this tweet this week.

    Charming man. I am sure his infamous father must be/have been very proud of him
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