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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters could still be under-rating the chances of No Deal

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited February 9 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters could still be under-rating the chances of No Deal

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Comments

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,231
    Second
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 7,939
    Second second
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 21,364
    first
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 16,806
    Third like Boris
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 16,806
    Nah, there won't be no deal.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 24,125
    Superb post.

    What we have to assess is what everyone will do when they are panicking. We need psychiatrists rather than psephologists.

    On topic:

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,596
    The odds are 3 on leaving on time, with no deal, on Ladbrokes. Backed it at 4 a while ago.

    Also, backed Ireland at 1.9 to beat Scotland even with a -6 point handicap (Ladbrokes), though the price has since lengthened a little to 2. So, let's hope the Irish enjoy a 7 point (or more) triumph over the Scots.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 17,400
    edited February 9
    If Betfair really believe it's a three to one chance, they're fools. Everyone can say they want a Deal, but unless everyone agrees an alternative no deal happens by default. As was said the other day in a different context, never underestimate the weight of inertia.

    The problem is not that No Deal is a preferred option for anyone other than a small minority but that nobody can come up with an acceptable plan to stop it. Given how polarized we are right now, the odds of such a plan emerging are slim.

    I'd say the odds are 1-3 not 3-1.
  • I've been saying for a while that No Deal happening is in the 70-80% range, the only question left now is for how long is the country prepared to tolerate No Deal for.

    I'd give it until the middle of May before we sue for peace.

    With screw ups like this



    and clusterfucks like this



    the reality of Brexit will be much different to the fantasy of Brexit.

    The fact that some Brexiteers think Remainers are worried about No Deal because it will show Brexit will be a success is comedy up there with Monty Python at their peak.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 29,116
    Top work, Mr Herdson.

    The Starmer strategy outlined in the letter he wrote this week that Corbyn signed would probably command a majority in the House on a free vote and be acceptable to a majority in the country, but it’s hard to see how May could ever allow it given her priority is preserving her position and the Conservative party. Likewise, Corbyn’s priority is Brexit because he sees significant political advantages in it. Given May will not agree to the Starmer position, the Commons will not agree the current WA and political declaration, and there is no way Article 50 will be revoked, it’s very hard to see how we don’t crash out from here.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 17,400

    I'd give it until the middle of May before we sue for peace.

    I don't think May has the stomach for it.

    Pause.

    OK, OK, I'll get my coat!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 7,902
    Nice header Mr H.

    However, haven't the EU side basically said that they would take Jezza's letter as the basis of a revised deal? It is only May's stubbornness that is preventing that being the basis of a renegotiation. Instead she turned up in Brussels with nothing and came away, once again, with nothing.

    The Tory wets need to take back control and forge a bipartisan deal that will get through parliament.
  • Regarding the chat on the previous thread, depending on who is playing, I'm either British, English, or Yorkshire, and am happy with all three.

    Tomorrow afternoon I'll be at peak Englishman.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 7,902

    Top work, Mr Herdson.

    The Starmer strategy outlined in the letter he wrote this week that Corbyn signed would probably command a majority in the House on a free vote and be acceptable to a majority in the country, but it’s hard to see how May could ever allow it given her priority is preserving her position and the Conservative party. Likewise, Corbyn’s priority is Brexit because he sees significant political advantages in it. Given May will not agree to the Starmer position, the Commons will not agree the current WA and political declaration, and there is no way Article 50 will be revoked, it’s very hard to see how we don’t crash out from here.

    Looks like I'm slightly more optimistic than you are that a way can be found to get the Labour Brexit.

    However this may be wishcasting rather than forecasting.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 21,364
    edited February 9

    The odds are 3 on leaving on time, with no deal, on Ladbrokes. Backed it at 4 a while ago.

    Also, backed Ireland at 1.9 to beat Scotland even with a -6 point handicap (Ladbrokes), though the price has since lengthened a little to 2. So, let's hope the Irish enjoy a 7 point (or more) triumph over the Scots.

    hope you lose big time:)
    Scotland at 1-2 with +11 looks like easy money
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 17,400

    Regarding the chat on the previous thread, depending on who is playing, I'm either British, English, or Yorkshire, and am happy with all three.

    Tomorrow afternoon I'll be at peak Englishman.

    Even without Jason Holder I am expecting that to be a painful experience.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 5,418
    Mr Herdson,


    While agreeing that a second referendum is unlikely, having one with a three-way option would create a major difficulty of which I know you're well aware.

    Choose between a Hard Leave, May's Leave, and Remain. Let's say the voting was 30%, 25%, and 45%.

    Remain is declared the winner even though the majority wanted a variety of Leave. This despite the Remainers being in a minority in two consecutive referenda. There is a lot of anger around at the moment, and people are both fed-up and suspicious. Having the result gerrymandered so obviously isn't a solution.

    I suspect a lot of murky water will run under the bridge in the next six weeks but with neither the EU or the UK wanting a no-deal, it will get murkier as we near April.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 12,057
    A couple of points on David's thought-provoking analysis.

    1. "No Deal" comes in various forms. If it becomes apparent that no general deal can be agreed, there will certainly be lots of holding arrangements - we really aren't going to get into the state where nobody can travel and medicine runs out, because literally nobody on either side of the Channel wants that. The theoretical possibility of a total no deal is there because TM finds it useful to make her deal look better. If her deal definitively dies, alternative arrangements will necessarily be made. In betting terms, I'm not sure if that counts as No Deal or not.

    2. There may well be a Parliamentary majority AND EU agrement to renegotiate on the basis of the Corbyn package - the EU signals on this are pretty clear, as are the comments from Boles, Clarke etc. At some stage, Parliament will have the opportunity to say so and instruct the government to pursue it. But if TM refuses, then will Parliament actually VONC her? That is less clear, and we could end up with a different kind of deadlock.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,596
    Mr. Observer, I broadly agree with your summary of who wants what, but would add it would still be a rational gamble (from her perspective) for May to try a second referendum to try and get support for her deal.

    Mr. Eagles, if Project Fear hadn't been so overblown during the dreadful campaign, current warnings would be taken more seriously.

    But then, had the Remain campaign not been so rubbish, we would've voted to stay in.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 7,902

    Regarding the chat on the previous thread, depending on who is playing, I'm either British, English, or Yorkshire, and am happy with all three.

    Tomorrow afternoon I'll be at peak Englishman.

    And when you are renewing your Lancashire membership???

    Anyway, I am a Geordie, from the north east, English and British. Next up is being a human - European doesn't come in to it.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    I used to be quite happy with being British, but the sheer incompetence of the govt & opposition, the venom and xenophobia of many leavers and the foolish antics of thr ultras have fatally tarnished my Britishness.

    I am lucky enough to have dual nationality and i now prefer to describe myself as Irish.

    Brexit hss destroyed the UK

    Anyone who has hedged their bets with dual nationality was clearly only "quite happy" being British.... Someone who drives both a Mini and a Land Rover is never going to be more than "quite happy" on the all-terrain road-holding of the Mini.

    Anyway, discussions around "Britishness" are utterly misplaced on a Six Nations weekend.

    I never "hedged [my] bets". I never even thought about being Irish until Brexit forced it on me. The Union Jack is a striking flag and denotes coming together with the union of the crosses of the various parts (except poor Wales).

    Brexit is not a British project, it is an English (and Welsh) one.

    Embracing my Irish citizenship is a symptom of the divisiveness of Brexit and it is forcing many other people into similar decisions. Not being English, Little-Englandism has zero appeal to me.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,596
    Mr. G, one bets in order to profit, not to satisfy personal preferences.

    Had I not made a bet which seemed good value, I'd prefer a Scottish victory. After all, you're fully British, rather than partially :)
  • The 23% figure may not be too far from an average of what the professional pundits think, although it's one of those averages where some people think No Deal is almost certain and others think it's very unlikely, with little middle ground. Don't forget the bet shown in the chart is leaving on time with No Deal, which doesn't include one of the relatively likely No Deal scenarios - that we obtain an extension of A50 for a referendum, an election or just for more negotiations, but the talks still fall apart.

    FWIW, I tend to estimate 30% No Deal, 30% a deal looking like May's WA & PD, 30% something noticeably softer and 10% Remain, but that's for the final outcome not 29 March. By now, if we leave with a deal it will definitely be later than scheduled.
  • Mr. Observer, I broadly agree with your summary of who wants what, but would add it would still be a rational gamble (from her perspective) for May to try a second referendum to try and get support for her deal.

    Mr. Eagles, if Project Fear hadn't been so overblown during the dreadful campaign, current warnings would be taken more seriously.

    But then, had the Remain campaign not been so rubbish, we would've voted to stay in.

    A lot of 'Project Fear' is about to become true.

    Remember when Sir John Major warned about the dangers of No Deal and the threat to Northern Ireland that was also dismissed as Project Fear.

    Remember when David Cameron warned that No Deal was a risk, he was told he was engaged in Project Fear.

    I could list more.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 28,073
    On topic, i think no deal is hugely underpriced.

    It all depends on whether the UK and EU are secretly working on a compromise that allows both sides to claim some sort of victory over the backstop - which is politically essential - otherwise we really are staring into the abyss.

    I'm changing my mind very regularly about that at the moment but I think the EU have finally realised Remain or Revoke is a very big longshot so it's a modified May deal, a Corbyn deal (which they'd clearly far prefer emotionally, but is unlikely) or No Deal.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 5,418
    Mr Rentool,

    Could you explain the labour position? I read it as BINO with absolutely no advantage over Remain. We stay in the CU and the EU, FOM is retained, and we continue to pay billions. The only difference is we lose any influence we had. Is that correct?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 21,364
    edited February 9

    Mr. G, one bets in order to profit, not to satisfy personal preferences.

    Had I not made a bet which seemed good value, I'd prefer a Scottish victory. After all, you're fully British, rather than partially :)

    I am 100% NOT British MD, Scottish only. I am debating whether to go with +6 or +11 for some easy money.
    PS: finally took + 8 on Scotland
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 28,073

    Regarding the chat on the previous thread, depending on who is playing, I'm either British, English, or Yorkshire, and am happy with all three.

    Tomorrow afternoon I'll be at peak Englishman.

    I'd never heard of a Sussexer before, but like Jonathan I also love the South Downs.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 28,073

    Top work, Mr Herdson.

    The Starmer strategy outlined in the letter he wrote this week that Corbyn signed would probably command a majority in the House on a free vote and be acceptable to a majority in the country, but it’s hard to see how May could ever allow it given her priority is preserving her position and the Conservative party. Likewise, Corbyn’s priority is Brexit because he sees significant political advantages in it. Given May will not agree to the Starmer position, the Commons will not agree the current WA and political declaration, and there is no way Article 50 will be revoked, it’s very hard to see how we don’t crash out from here.

    May can't agree to the whole Starmer position and neither can Starmer agree to May's.

    The question is whether there's something in between and I'd have thought that would be based around the customs union and a floor of rights.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 7,902
    CD13 said:

    Mr Rentool,

    Could you explain the labour position? I read it as BINO with absolutely no advantage over Remain. We stay in the CU and the EU, FOM is retained, and we continue to pay billions. The only difference is we lose any influence we had. Is that correct?

    It is more cake and eat it than that. We retain the benefits of the CU and SM together with EU workers' rights and environmental protection but end FOM, leave the CAP and CFP and stop paying in. I think I've got that right.

    The EU side seem to be happy with this. May should bite their hand off.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,596
    Mr. Eagles, the warnings of what would happen upon voting to leave, prior to departure, were almost entirely wrong. The pound did fall significantly, but jobs rose by around 400,000 rather than falling by 800,000. There was no emergency Budget, nor did the economy plunge into recession.

    Overblowing the omens of doom was a mistake both in the campaign and for subsequent discourse.

    Mr. Royale, May capitulating is entirely possible.

    Mr. CD13, indeed.

    Mr. G, I meant 'you' as in Scotland generally. Anyway, the match may well be quite entertaining.

    Windy there? It's pretty windy here, about 50mph winds.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 1,370
    edited February 9
    CD13 said:

    Mr Rentool,

    Could you explain the labour position? I read it as BINO with absolutely no advantage over Remain. We stay in the CU and the EU, FOM is retained, and we continue to pay billions. The only difference is we lose any influence we had. Is that correct?

    The advantage is that it “respects the referendum” for those that think that’s important.

    Insert usual tedious PB debate about whether the Leave vote implied leaving the CU/SM here. (Please don’t, it’s almost as boring as the “second referendum should be Deal vs No Deal” one.)

    [Cotswolder and exiled Rutlander; English for Howells RVW and Britten, but not Elgar or Purcell.]
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 29,116

    I used to be quite happy with being British, but the sheer incompetence of the govt & opposition, the venom and xenophobia of many leavers and the foolish antics of thr ultras have fatally tarnished my Britishness.

    I am lucky enough to have dual nationality and i now prefer to describe myself as Irish.

    Brexit hss destroyed the UK

    Anyone who has hedged their bets with dual nationality was clearly only "quite happy" being British.... Someone who drives both a Mini and a Land Rover is never going to be more than "quite happy" on the all-terrain road-holding of the Mini.

    Anyway, discussions around "Britishness" are utterly misplaced on a Six Nations weekend.

    I never "hedged [my] bets". I never even thought about being Irish until Brexit forced it on me. The Union Jack is a striking flag and denotes coming together with the union of the crosses of the various parts (except poor Wales).

    Brexit is not a British project, it is an English (and Welsh) one.

    Embracing my Irish citizenship is a symptom of the divisiveness of Brexit and it is forcing many other people into similar decisions. Not being English, Little-Englandism has zero appeal to me.

    My guess is that a fair number of staunchly British DUP voters have Irish passports. Like most English Brexiteers, Mr Mark knows absolutely nothing about Ireland - north or south!

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 21,364

    Mr. Eagles, the warnings of what would happen upon voting to leave, prior to departure, were almost entirely wrong. The pound did fall significantly, but jobs rose by around 400,000 rather than falling by 800,000. There was no emergency Budget, nor did the economy plunge into recession.

    Overblowing the omens of doom was a mistake both in the campaign and for subsequent discourse.

    Mr. Royale, May capitulating is entirely possible.

    Mr. CD13, indeed.

    Mr. G, I meant 'you' as in Scotland generally. Anyway, the match may well be quite entertaining.

    Windy there? It's pretty windy here, about 50mph winds.

    MD , Very windy indeed , and gusts as well so will make for tough conditions. I have gone for Scotland at +8 points.
    I am taking my grandson to the football later , Scottish Cup day if weather permits. Kilmarnock v Rangers.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 28,073
    Nah, it's a hyberbolic rant.

    Gloria de Piero was much better yesterday.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,596
    Mr. G, hmm. Could make things down to luck a bit more.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 28,073

    I used to be quite happy with being British, but the sheer incompetence of the govt & opposition, the venom and xenophobia of many leavers and the foolish antics of thr ultras have fatally tarnished my Britishness.

    I am lucky enough to have dual nationality and i now prefer to describe myself as Irish.

    Brexit hss destroyed the UK

    Anyone who has hedged their bets with dual nationality was clearly only "quite happy" being British.... Someone who drives both a Mini and a Land Rover is never going to be more than "quite happy" on the all-terrain road-holding of the Mini.

    Anyway, discussions around "Britishness" are utterly misplaced on a Six Nations weekend.

    I never "hedged [my] bets". I never even thought about being Irish until Brexit forced it on me. The Union Jack is a striking flag and denotes coming together with the union of the crosses of the various parts (except poor Wales).

    Brexit is not a British project, it is an English (and Welsh) one.

    Embracing my Irish citizenship is a symptom of the divisiveness of Brexit and it is forcing many other people into similar decisions. Not being English, Little-Englandism has zero appeal to me.
    It is neither of those things. It is a decision that full European Union membership is no longer right for Britain, particularly given the way it is going.

    You're certainly right to say it's divisive, which is very sad, but it's not an English project either. It's a UK decision. In 1975 Scotland was the most eurosceptic nation of them all.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    I used to be quite happy with being British, but the sheer incompetence of the govt & opposition, the venom and xenophobia of many leavers and the foolish antics of thr ultras have fatally tarnished my Britishness.

    I am lucky enough to have dual nationality and i now prefer to describe myself as Irish.

    Brexit hss destroyed the UK

    Anyone who has hedged their bets with dual nationality was clearly only "quite happy" being British.... Someone who drives both a Mini and a Land Rover is never going to be more than "quite happy" on the all-terrain road-holding of the Mini.

    Anyway, discussions around "Britishness" are utterly misplaced on a Six Nations weekend.

    I never "hedged [my] bets". I never even thought about being Irish until Brexit forced it on me. The Union Jack is a striking flag and denotes coming together with the union of the crosses of the various parts (except poor Wales).

    Brexit is not a British project, it is an English (and Welsh) one.

    Embracing my Irish citizenship is a symptom of the divisiveness of Brexit and it is forcing many other people into similar decisions. Not being English, Little-Englandism has zero appeal to me.

    My guess is that a fair number of staunchly British DUP voters have Irish passports. Like most English Brexiteers, Mr Mark knows absolutely nothing about Ireland - north or south!

    Every single one of them will be an Irish citizen. They do not even need to apply for citizenship. The passport is a simple form and photo.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 24,355
    "You might think that with 94% of the time between the referendum and the scheduled Brexit Day now gone, we’d have some idea as to when and how Britain will be leaving the EU."

    Why? The clue is in those two letters EU - and their track record of sorting out problems at one minute to midnight. Was their crisis with Greece solved with 94% of the clock run down?

    "No Deal is intolerable" Sub-optimal for sure, a damning indictment of the lack of creative thinking from both sets of negotiators undoubtably. But intolerable? As against failing to implement the democratic instruction of the people? That would be intolerable. It would come with issues, issues made much worse by a Govt. that has singularly refused to plan for it as an outcome. (Some might consider there is a VIP area of Hell, fenced off with fiery red rope, just for these advocates of inactivity.) But No Deal would start April with decks cleared, a much sharper idea of who needed what to make our future trading arrangments work. It would pull the planks from underneath those who have spent two and a half years grandstanding. We would have a very focussed set of discussions on How To Make Things Work Again. Focussed by both sides, hopefully with completely new teams on both sides.

    "What is, I think, still much more possible than is being given credit for, due mainly to the fact that neither front bench wants it, is a second referendum."

    Nobody has agreed what form that should take, There are - and still would be - competing formats. And they would all be underpinned by the risk of it being rendered pointless by a mass boycott, by those who have already indicated how the Govt. should have listened the first time.

    A second referendum that achieved a lower turnout and less than 17.4m votes for the winning option would always be tainted. And would just be fuel to the fire for those saying we are STILL going to leave the EU, damn it. We'd still be a semi-detatched member of the EU, as they waited for the political groudswell that leads us to making that walk away. And in the meantime, every ill on the face of our land would belong the EU.
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 821

    I used to be quite happy with being British, but the sheer incompetence of the govt & opposition, the venom and xenophobia of many leavers and the foolish antics of thr ultras have fatally tarnished my Britishness.

    I am lucky enough to have dual nationality and i now prefer to describe myself as Irish.

    Brexit hss destroyed the UK

    Anyone who has hedged their bets with dual nationality was clearly only "quite happy" being British.... Someone who drives both a Mini and a Land Rover is never going to be more than "quite happy" on the all-terrain road-holding of the Mini.

    Anyway, discussions around "Britishness" are utterly misplaced on a Six Nations weekend.

    I never "hedged [my] bets". I never even thought about being Irish until Brexit forced it on me. The Union Jack is a striking flag and denotes coming together with the union of the crosses of the various parts (except poor Wales).

    Brexit is not a British project, it is an English (and Welsh) one.

    Embracing my Irish citizenship is a symptom of the divisiveness of Brexit and it is forcing many other people into similar decisions. Not being English, Little-Englandism has zero appeal to me.
    The Union Jack is known by foreigners as the butcher's apron. It is now threadbare. The cathartic effect of a no deal Brexit would help to puncture British arrogance, which the loss of Empire hasn't fully achieved - Westminster is still prancing on the world stage. It would be a comeuppance for the UK and facilitate Scottish independence and Irish re-unification.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 5,418
    Mr Rentool,

    "but end FOM, leave the CAP and CFP and stop paying in. I think I've got that right."

    That would be fine with me, but I fear you're mistaken.

    No one will get exactly what they want. My personal preference will be for Remain, with the proviso of a commitment to no more progress to a single state, and immigration decided the sovereign government. Labour will probably go for FOM, the LDs would and even the Tories make little difference to the figures, so the change will be more cosmetic more than anything else.

    That will never be possible but Mr Rentool's version, if correct, could well suffice.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 7,902

    I used to be quite happy with being British, but the sheer incompetence of the govt & opposition, the venom and xenophobia of many leavers and the foolish antics of thr ultras have fatally tarnished my Britishness.

    I am lucky enough to have dual nationality and i now prefer to describe myself as Irish.

    Brexit hss destroyed the UK

    Anyone who has hedged their bets with dual nationality was clearly only "quite happy" being British.... Someone who drives both a Mini and a Land Rover is never going to be more than "quite happy" on the all-terrain road-holding of the Mini.

    Anyway, discussions around "Britishness" are utterly misplaced on a Six Nations weekend.

    I never "hedged [my] bets". I never even thought about being Irish until Brexit forced it on me. The Union Jack is a striking flag and denotes coming together with the union of the crosses of the various parts (except poor Wales).

    Brexit is not a British project, it is an English (and Welsh) one.

    Embracing my Irish citizenship is a symptom of the divisiveness of Brexit and it is forcing many other people into similar decisions. Not being English, Little-Englandism has zero appeal to me.

    My guess is that a fair number of staunchly British DUP voters have Irish passports. Like most English Brexiteers, Mr Mark knows absolutely nothing about Ireland - north or south!

    Every single one of them will be an Irish citizen. They do not even need to apply for citizenship. The passport is a simple form and photo.
    But who do the Ulster-Scots support in the Rugby Union?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 29,116

    I've been saying for a while that No Deal happening is in the 70-80% range, the only question left now is for how long is the country prepared to tolerate No Deal for.

    I'd give it until the middle of May before we sue for peace.

    With screw ups like this



    and clusterfucks like this



    the reality of Brexit will be much different to the fantasy of Brexit.

    The fact that some Brexiteers think Remainers are worried about No Deal because it will show Brexit will be a success is comedy up there with Monty Python at their peak.

    The ferry company with no ferries is Brexit all over. The utter cluelessness of our Buccaneering Brexiteers is almost performance art. On every level they have proved themselves to be hopelessly out of their depth, boom boom. When they find their special place in hell it probably will freeze over!

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 24,355

    I used to be quite happy with being British, but the sheer incompetence of the govt & opposition, the venom and xenophobia of many leavers and the foolish antics of thr ultras have fatally tarnished my Britishness.

    I am lucky enough to have dual nationality and i now prefer to describe myself as Irish.

    Brexit hss destroyed the UK

    Anyone who has hedged their bets with dual nationality was clearly only "quite happy" being British.... Someone who drives both a Mini and a Land Rover is never going to be more than "quite happy" on the all-terrain road-holding of the Mini.

    Anyway, discussions around "Britishness" are utterly misplaced on a Six Nations weekend.

    I never "hedged [my] bets". I never even thought about being Irish until Brexit forced it on me. The Union Jack is a striking flag and denotes coming together with the union of the crosses of the various parts (except poor Wales).

    Brexit is not a British project, it is an English (and Welsh) one.

    Embracing my Irish citizenship is a symptom of the divisiveness of Brexit and it is forcing many other people into similar decisions. Not being English, Little-Englandism has zero appeal to me.

    My guess is that a fair number of staunchly British DUP voters have Irish passports. Like most English Brexiteers, Mr Mark knows absolutely nothing about Ireland - north or south!

    What an arrogant asshole your post shows yourself to be.

    You know nothing about my understanding of Ireland. Nor could you ever. We have never met.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 21,364

    Mr. G, hmm. Could make things down to luck a bit more.

    Mind you I am on west coast so it may be calm on east coast. Supposedly 50Km on west coast and 35KM on east coast. Gusty here though as well.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,596
    Mr. daodao, by some foreigners, perhaps.

    All nations have good and bad parts to their history. Your claims are significantly overblown, however.

    What's it like to dislike your own country so much?
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 821

    I used to be quite happy with being British, but the sheer incompetence of the govt & opposition, the venom and xenophobia of many leavers and the foolish antics of thr ultras have fatally tarnished my Britishness.

    I am lucky enough to have dual nationality and i now prefer to describe myself as Irish.

    Brexit hss destroyed the UK

    Anyone who has hedged their bets with dual nationality was clearly only "quite happy" being British.... Someone who drives both a Mini and a Land Rover is never going to be more than "quite happy" on the all-terrain road-holding of the Mini.

    Anyway, discussions around "Britishness" are utterly misplaced on a Six Nations weekend.

    I never "hedged [my] bets". I never even thought about being Irish until Brexit forced it on me. The Union Jack is a striking flag and denotes coming together with the union of the crosses of the various parts (except poor Wales).

    Brexit is not a British project, it is an English (and Welsh) one.

    Embracing my Irish citizenship is a symptom of the divisiveness of Brexit and it is forcing many other people into similar decisions. Not being English, Little-Englandism has zero appeal to me.

    My guess is that a fair number of staunchly British DUP voters have Irish passports. Like most English Brexiteers, Mr Mark knows absolutely nothing about Ireland - north or south!

    Every single one of them will be an Irish citizen. They do not even need to apply for citizenship. The passport is a simple form and photo.
    But who do the Ulster-Scots support in the Rugby Union?
    Colleagues that I have known from that background support Ireland - one has gone to Edinburgh today to do just that.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 29,116

    I used to be quite happy with being British, but the sheer incompetence of the govt & opposition, the venom and xenophobia of many leavers and the foolish antics of thr ultras have fatally tarnished my Britishness.

    I am lucky enough to have dual nationality and i now prefer to describe myself as Irish.

    Brexit hss destroyed the UK

    Anyone who has hedged their bets with dual nationality was clearly only "quite happy" being British.... Someone who drives both a Mini and a Land Rover is never going to be more than "quite happy" on the all-terrain road-holding of the Mini.

    Anyway, discussions around "Britishness" are utterly misplaced on a Six Nations weekend.

    I never "hedged [my] bets". I never even thought about being Irish until Brexit forced it on me. The Union Jack is a striking flag and denotes coming together with the union of the crosses of the various parts (except poor Wales).

    Brexit is not a British project, it is an English (and Welsh) one.

    Embracing my Irish citizenship is a symptom of the divisiveness of Brexit and it is forcing many other people into similar decisions. Not being English, Little-Englandism has zero appeal to me.

    My guess is that a fair number of staunchly British DUP voters have Irish passports. Like most English Brexiteers, Mr Mark knows absolutely nothing about Ireland - north or south!

    What an arrogant asshole your post shows yourself to be.

    You know nothing about my understanding of Ireland. Nor could you ever. We have never met.

    Accusing someone who holds an Irish and British passport of hedging their bets says it all, I’m afraid.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 21,364

    I used to be quite happy with being British, but the sheer incompetence of the govt & opposition, the venom and xenophobia of many leavers and the foolish antics of thr ultras have fatally tarnished my Britishness.

    I am lucky enough to have dual nationality and i now prefer to describe myself as Irish.

    Brexit hss destroyed the UK

    Anyone who has hedged their bets with dual nationality was clearly only "quite happy" being British.... Someone who drives both a Mini and a Land Rover is never going to be more than "quite happy" on the all-terrain road-holding of the Mini.

    Anyway, discussions around "Britishness" are utterly misplaced on a Six Nations weekend.

    I never "hedged [my] bets". I never even thought about being Irish until Brexit forced it on me. The Union Jack is a striking flag and denotes coming together with the union of the crosses of the various parts (except poor Wales).

    Brexit is not a British project, it is an English (and Welsh) one.

    Embracing my Irish citizenship is a symptom of the divisiveness of Brexit and it is forcing many other people into similar decisions. Not being English, Little-Englandism has zero appeal to me.
    It is neither of those things. It is a decision that full European Union membership is no longer right for Britain, particularly given the way it is going.

    You're certainly right to say it's divisive, which is very sad, but it's not an English project either. It's a UK decision. In 1975 Scotland was the most eurosceptic nation of them all.
    We are not talking 1975 and Scotland voted to stay in the EU. We will rejoin once we are independent though.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 44,557

    The ferry company with no ferries is Brexit all over. The utter cluelessness of our Buccaneering Brexiteers is almost performance art. On every level they have proved themselves to be hopelessly out of their depth, boom boom. When they find their special place in hell it probably will freeze over!

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 29,116
    malcolmg said:

    I used to be quite happy with being British, but the sheer incompetence of the govt & opposition, the venom and xenophobia of many leavers and the foolish antics of thr ultras have fatally tarnished my Britishness.

    I am lucky enough to have dual nationality and i now prefer to describe myself as Irish.

    Brexit hss destroyed the UK

    Anyone who has hedged their bets with dual nationality was clearly only "quite happy" being British.... Someone who drives both a Mini and a Land Rover is never going to be more than "quite happy" on the all-terrain road-holding of the Mini.

    Anyway, discussions around "Britishness" are utterly misplaced on a Six Nations weekend.

    I never "hedged [my] bets". I never even thought about being Irish until Brexit forced it on me. The Union Jack is a striking flag and denotes coming together with the union of the crosses of the various parts (except poor Wales).

    Brexit is not a British project, it is an English (and Welsh) one.

    Embracing my Irish citizenship is a symptom of the divisiveness of Brexit and it is forcing many other people into similar decisions. Not being English, Little-Englandism has zero appeal to me.
    It is neither of those things. It is a decision that full European Union membership is no longer right for Britain, particularly given the way it is going.

    You're certainly right to say it's divisive, which is very sad, but it's not an English project either. It's a UK decision. In 1975 Scotland was the most eurosceptic nation of them all.
    We are not talking 1975 and Scotland voted to stay in the EU. We will rejoin once we are independent though.

    Yep - Brexit was and is a project driven by right wing English nationalism, with some side support from right wing British nationalists who don’t quite get that the English nats would throw them overboard without a moment’s hesitation.

  • daodaodaodao Posts: 821

    Mr. daodao, by some foreigners, perhaps.

    All nations have good and bad parts to their history. Your claims are significantly overblown, however.

    What's it like to dislike your own country so much?

    I have a UK passport, and was born in England, but am not ethnically British. The Maybot would define me as a "citizen of nowhere".
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 10,815
    edited February 9
    CD13 said:

    Mr Herdson,


    While agreeing that a second referendum is unlikely, having one with a three-way option would create a major difficulty of which I know you're well aware.

    Choose between a Hard Leave, May's Leave, and Remain. Let's say the voting was 30%, 25%, and 45%.

    Remain is declared the winner even though the majority wanted a variety of Leave. This despite the Remainers being in a minority in two consecutive referenda. There is a lot of anger around at the moment, and people are both fed-up and suspicious. Having the result gerrymandered so obviously isn't a solution.

    I suspect a lot of murky water will run under the bridge in the next six weeks but with neither the EU or the UK wanting a no-deal, it will get murkier as we near April.

    A straight FPTP vote between 3 options would be dumb for the reason you give, and I think is also unlikely because none of the veto players would want it.

    The obvious way to it is just to do Remain vs Deal, because if TMay agrees to it then there's probably a parliamentary majority for it in the form of Loyalist-Tory + Remainist-Lab + SNP + LD. It's simple, you know the next step for both the possible outcomes and you can legislate for them in advance so there's no concern that one of the factions will renege. No-Dealers would cry blue murder but they'd cry blue murder anyhow.

    If you really had to have 3 options then the solution is to have two rounds:
    1) What's Brexit? Deal vs No Deal.
    2) Do it or not? Winner vs Remain.

    This has the benefit that the final round gives you a 50%+ winner. We election nerds understand that you could do basically the same thing quicker and cheaper with AV or similar, but two rounds are harder to demagogue. But like I say, I don't think any of the veto players would want a No Deal option, especially while they're trying to clean up the mess from last time they tried asking the voters if they wanted to not-this-but-¯\_(ツ)_/¯.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 29,116
    Scott_P said:

    The ferry company with no ferries is Brexit all over. The utter cluelessness of our Buccaneering Brexiteers is almost performance art. On every level they have proved themselves to be hopelessly out of their depth, boom boom. When they find their special place in hell it probably will freeze over!



    Only a complete moron - read Buccaneering Brexiteer - would ever have thought otherwise. And that’s before the Irish-American lobby gets to work!

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,596
    Mr. daodao, lucky for you, then, that May is not the arbiter nor the definition of Britishness, the epitome of the UK.

    Mr. Observer, I don't buy that line which you've consistently espoused. The EU is on a constant bearing towards integration. Opposing a United States of Europe (including the UK) does not mean one must be a nationalist or on the right. Supporting the right of a nation state to govern itself is a democratic approach, not a nationalist one.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 29,116

    Mr. daodao, lucky for you, then, that May is not the arbiter nor the definition of Britishness, the epitome of the UK.

    Mr. Observer, I don't buy that line which you've consistently espoused. The EU is on a constant bearing towards integration. Opposing a United States of Europe (including the UK) does not mean one must be a nationalist or on the right. Supporting the right of a nation state to govern itself is a democratic approach, not a nationalist one.

    We never lost that right.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 24,355

    I used to be quite happy with being British, but the sheer incompetence of the govt & opposition, the venom and xenophobia of many leavers and the foolish antics of thr ultras have fatally tarnished my Britishness.

    I am lucky enough to have dual nationality and i now prefer to describe myself as Irish.

    Brexit hss destroyed the UK

    Anyone who has hedged their bets with dual nationality was clearly only "quite happy" being British.... Someone who drives both a Mini and a Land Rover is never going to be more than "quite happy" on the all-terrain road-holding of the Mini.

    Anyway, discussions around "Britishness" are utterly misplaced on a Six Nations weekend.

    I never "hedged [my] bets". I never even thought about being Irish until Brexit forced it on me. The Union Jack is a striking flag and denotes coming together with the union of the crosses of the various parts (except poor Wales).

    Brexit is not a British project, it is an English (and Welsh) one.

    Embracing my Irish citizenship is a symptom of the divisiveness of Brexit and it is forcing many other people into similar decisions. Not being English, Little-Englandism has zero appeal to me.

    My guess is that a fair number of staunchly British DUP voters have Irish passports. Like most English Brexiteers, Mr Mark knows absolutely nothing about Ireland - north or south!

    What an arrogant asshole your post shows yourself to be.

    You know nothing about my understanding of Ireland. Nor could you ever. We have never met.

    Accusing someone who holds an Irish and British passport of hedging their bets says it all, I’m afraid.

    Adding pompous to the charge sheet as well, I see.

    "Says it all, I'm afraid". What an arse you are.

    If someone has options as to where they choose to treat as their home nation under their multiple passports, they have not the same level of enforced commitment to a country as those of us having just the one. Is that too difficult a concept for you to understand?
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 5,418
    edited February 9
    A lot of Brits have some Irish ancestors. I discovered that when checking my own family history. My wife and I checked out our DNA for interest, but it came out as boring.

    I was 48% English and 35% Irish. My wife (an in-bred bogtrotter) was 91% Irish. I pity the kids - that makes them more Irish than British, but they are British, being born here. Even if my son, living and working in Copenhagen has an Irish passport for convenience, he still passes the Tebbit test.

    (This DNA analysis is for fun only, but it did stack up with my family history. Perhaps we're not all illegitimate after all).




  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 48,596
    Mr. Observer, it's in the process of being lost. You don't disagree that the EU is heading towards ever more integration?

    Even areas where we have opt-outs, the single currency being the most obvious, EU institutions end up being used for eurozone-only matters. QMV has stripped away vetoes, the EU is intent on building an army, there's chuntering about harmonising taxes. The ratchet only moves one way.

    Machiavelli was right about large confederacies necessarily centralising power away from constituent members, others the numbers involved make it unwieldy. The fact EU ideologues have integration almost as a political religion only accelerates that.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 1,370

    CD13 said:

    Mr Herdson,


    While agreeing that a second referendum is unlikely, having one with a three-way option would create a major difficulty of which I know you're well aware.

    Choose between a Hard Leave, May's Leave, and Remain. Let's say the voting was 30%, 25%, and 45%.

    Remain is declared the winner even though the majority wanted a variety of Leave. This despite the Remainers being in a minority in two consecutive referenda. There is a lot of anger around at the moment, and people are both fed-up and suspicious. Having the result gerrymandered so obviously isn't a solution.

    I suspect a lot of murky water will run under the bridge in the next six weeks but with neither the EU or the UK wanting a no-deal, it will get murkier as we near April.

    A straight FPTP vote between 3 options would be dumb for the reason you give, and I think is also unlikely because none of the veto players would want it.

    The obvious way to it is just to do Remain vs Deal, because if TMay agrees to it then there's probably a parliamentary majority for it in the form of Loyalist-Tory + Remainist-Lab + SNP + LD. It's simple, you know the next step for both the possible outcomes and you can legislate for them in advance so there's no concern that one of the factions will renege. No-Dealers would cry blue murder but they'd cry blue murder anyhow.

    If you really had to have 3 options then the solution is to have two rounds:
    1) What's Brexit? Deal vs No Deal.
    2) Do it or not? Winner vs Remain.
    That’s been proposed a number of times here but it does beg the question of what Remainers (currently the majority, if polls are to be believed) should vote in the first round. A single three-option vote with first and second preferences is clearer IMeversoHO.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 29,116

    I used to be quite happy with being British, but the sheer incompetence of the govt & opposition, the venom and xenophobia of many leavers and the foolish antics of thr ultras have fatally tarnished my Britishness.

    I am lucky enough to have dual nationality and i now prefer to describe myself as Irish.

    Brexit hss destroyed the UK

    Anyone who has hedged their bets with dual nationality was clearly only "quite happy" being British.... Someone who drives both a Mini and a Land Rover is never going to be more than "quite happy" on the all-terrain road-holding of the Mini.

    Anyway, discussions around "Britishness" are utterly misplaced on a Six Nations weekend.

    I never "hedged [my] bets". I never even thought about being Irish until Brexit forced it on me. The Union Jack is a striking flag and denotes coming together with the union of the crosses of the various parts (except poor Wales).

    Brexit is not a British project, it is an English (and Welsh) one.

    Embracing my Irish citizenship is a symptom of the divisiveness of Brexit and it is forcing many other people into similar decisions. Not being English, Little-Englandism has zero appeal to me.

    My guess is that a fair number of staunchly British DUP voters have Irish passports. Like most English Brexiteers, Mr Mark knows absolutely nothing about Ireland - north or south!

    What an arrogant asshole your post shows yourself to be.

    You know nothing about my understanding of Ireland. Nor could you ever. We have never met.

    Accusing someone who holds an Irish and British passport of hedging their bets says it all, I’m afraid.

    Adding pompous to the charge sheet as well, I see.

    "Says it all, I'm afraid". What an arse you are.

    If someone has options as to where they choose to treat as their home nation under their multiple passports, they have not the same level of enforced commitment to a country as those of us having just the one. Is that too difficult a concept for you to understand?

    You’re saying that a Northern Irish unionist with an Irish passport has less commitment to the UK than you do. I think that betrays a profound ignorance of the dynamics of Irish history and identity. Sorry.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 23,181

    Mr. daodao, by some foreigners, perhaps.

    All nations have good and bad parts to their history. Your claims are significantly overblown, however.

    (Snip)

    As an example: Britain's role in the slave trade was horrible, and it casts a shadow over our history. There can be no excuses for it.

    Last Saturday I walked part of the London Loop walk. On the way, I passed the Wilberforce Oak, where Wilberforce and Pitt the Younger decided to table a bill to abolish the slave trade. It took many decades, but eventually it was done.

    But Britain did not just abolish our slave trade: we actively enforced a ban. The work of the West Africa Squadron cost a massive amount of treasure (2% of annual income annually for sixty years) and lives of our sailors, mainly to disease. 25% of sailors died in one year alone.

    But the results were significant: "Between 1808 and 1860 the West Africa Squadron captured 1,600 slave ships and freed 150,000 Africans." And that does not count the ones who were prevented from boarding slaving ships.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Africa_Squadron

    In addition, we gradually took a lead in preventing slaving by other countries. It has been argued that the costs of doing this were greater than the profits made from slaving in the previous hundred years.

    Does this in some way compensate for the previous 120 years of active slaving? No. It was hideous. But I can take some pride in our role in trying to abolish slavery worldwide.

    Except perhaps during the American civil war ...

    It would be crass to go on about our role in abolishing the Atlantic slave trade, without mentioning our earlier role in that trade. But I can take pride in our later actions.

    (Awaits Ydoethur...)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 24,355

    I used to be quite happy with being British, but the sheer incompetence of the govt & opposition, the venom and xenophobia of many leavers and the foolish antics of thr ultras have fatally tarnished my Britishness.

    I am lucky enough to have dual nationality and i now prefer to describe myself as Irish.

    Brexit hss destroyed the UK

    Anyone who has hedged their bets with dual nationality was clearly only "quite happy" being British.... Someone who drives both a Mini and a Land Rover is never going to be more than "quite happy" on the all-terrain road-holding of the Mini.

    Anyway, discussions around "Britishness" are utterly misplaced on a Six Nations weekend.

    I never "hedged [my] bets". I never even thought about being Irish until Brexit forced it on me. The Union Jack is a striking flag and denotes coming together with the union of the crosses of the various parts (except poor Wales).

    Brexit is not a British project, it is an English (and Welsh) one.

    Embracing my Irish citizenship is a symptom of the divisiveness of Brexit and it is forcing many other people into similar decisions. Not being English, Little-Englandism has zero appeal to me.

    My guess is that a fair number of staunchly British DUP voters have Irish passports. Like most English Brexiteers, Mr Mark knows absolutely nothing about Ireland - north or south!

    What an arrogant asshole your post shows yourself to be.

    You know nothing about my understanding of Ireland. Nor could you ever. We have never met.

    Accusing someone who holds an Irish and British passport of hedging their bets says it all, I’m afraid.

    Adding pompous to the charge sheet as well, I see.

    "Says it all, I'm afraid". What an arse you are.

    If someone has options as to where they choose to treat as their home nation under their multiple passports, they have not the same level of enforced commitment to a country as those of us having just the one. Is that too difficult a concept for you to understand?

    You’re saying that a Northern Irish unionist with an Irish passport has less commitment to the UK than you do. I think that betrays a profound ignorance of the dynamics of Irish history and identity. Sorry.

    Whatever. I'll go back to booking my next trip to Ireland....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 26,978

    I used to be quite happy with being British, but the sheer incompetence of the govt & opposition, the venom and xenophobia of many leavers and the foolish antics of thr ultras have fatally tarnished my Britishness.

    I am lucky enough to have dual nationality and i now prefer to describe myself as Irish.

    Brexit hss destroyed the UK

    Anyone who has hedged their bets with dual nationality was clearly only "quite happy" being British.... Someone who drives both a Mini and a Land Rover is never going to be more than "quite happy" on the all-terrain road-holding of the Mini.

    Anyway, discussions around "Britishness" are utterly misplaced on a Six Nations weekend.

    I never "hedged [my] bets". I never even thought about being Irish until Brexit forced it on me. The Union Jack is a striking flag and denotes coming together with the union of the crosses of the various parts (except poor Wales).

    Brexit is not a British project, it is an English (and Welsh) one.

    Embracing my Irish citizenship is a symptom of the divisiveness of Brexit and it is forcing many other people into similar decisions. Not being English, Little-Englandism has zero appeal to me.
    It is neither of those things. It is a decision that full European Union membership is no longer right for Britain, particularly given the way it is going.

    You're certainly right to say it's divisive, which is very sad, but it's not an English project either. It's a UK decision. In 1975 Scotland was the most eurosceptic nation of them all.
    Brexit shows that the UK is no longer right for Britain. It should be dissolved so that the English, as well as British nationalists in the other nations of the UK, are able to see themselves as equal Europeans.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 17,400

    Mr. daodao, by some foreigners, perhaps.

    All nations have good and bad parts to their history. Your claims are significantly overblown, however.

    (Snip)

    As an example: Britain's role in the slave trade was horrible, and it casts a shadow over our history. There can be no excuses for it.

    Last Saturday I walked part of the London Loop walk. On the way, I passed the Wilberforce Oak, where Wilberforce and Pitt the Younger decided to table a bill to abolish the slave trade. It took many decades, but eventually it was done.

    But Britain did not just abolish our slave trade: we actively enforced a ban. The work of the West Africa Squadron cost a massive amount of treasure (2% of annual income annually for sixty years) and lives of our sailors, mainly to disease. 25% of sailors died in one year alone.

    But the results were significant: "Between 1808 and 1860 the West Africa Squadron captured 1,600 slave ships and freed 150,000 Africans." And that does not count the ones who were prevented from boarding slaving ships.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Africa_Squadron

    In addition, we gradually took a lead in preventing slaving by other countries. It has been argued that the costs of doing this were greater than the profits made from slaving in the previous hundred years.

    Does this in some way compensate for the previous 120 years of active slaving? No. It was hideous. But I can take some pride in our role in trying to abolish slavery worldwide.

    Except perhaps during the American civil war ...

    It would be crass to go on about our role in abolishing the Atlantic slave trade, without mentioning our earlier role in that trade. But I can take pride in our later actions.

    (Awaits Ydoethur...)
    Why? Can't see what's wrong with the analysis.

    You do perhaps miss how the slave trade was abolished as part of a wider trade embargo on Napoleonic France, but as that was basically a trick to slide it past the Liverpool block vote I don't see it's particulary relevant.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 44,557

    If you really had to have 3 options then the solution is to have two rounds:
    1) What's Brexit? Deal vs No Deal.
    2) Do it or not? Winner vs Remain.

    This has the benefit that the final round gives you a 50%+ winner. We election nerds understand that you could do basically the same thing quicker and cheaper with AV or similar, but two rounds are harder to demagogue.

    /pedant hat

    We election nerds know that AV does not of course guarantee a 50%+ winner due to discarded ballots.

    This is also the question of boycott raised by Brexiteers. If voters from round 1 boycott round 2, you can't guarantee the 50% threshold.

    /pedantry
  • mattmatt Posts: 2,701
    When one has articles this thoughtful and analytically interesting published for free, why do newspapers continue to pay the usual suspects to turn out the same tired and repetitive articles and comment (Sylvester, Toynbee, Johnson, the list goes on and on)?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 17,400

    I used to be quite happy with being British, but the sheer incompetence of the govt & opposition, the venom and xenophobia of many leavers and the foolish antics of thr ultras have fatally tarnished my Britishness.

    I am lucky enough to have dual nationality and i now prefer to describe myself as Irish.

    Brexit hss destroyed the UK

    Anyone who has hedged their bets with dual nationality was clearly only "quite happy" being British.... Someone who drives both a Mini and a Land Rover is never going to be more than "quite happy" on the all-terrain road-holding of the Mini.

    Anyway, discussions around "Britishness" are utterly misplaced on a Six Nations weekend.

    I never "hedged [my] bets". I never even thought about being Irish until Brexit forced it on me. The Union Jack is a striking flag and denotes coming together with the union of the crosses of the various parts (except poor Wales).

    Brexit is not a British project, it is an English (and Welsh) one.

    Embracing my Irish citizenship is a symptom of the divisiveness of Brexit and it is forcing many other people into similar decisions. Not being English, Little-Englandism has zero appeal to me.
    It is neither of those things. It is a decision that full European Union membership is no longer right for Britain, particularly given the way it is going.

    You're certainly right to say it's divisive, which is very sad, but it's not an English project either. It's a UK decision. In 1975 Scotland was the most eurosceptic nation of them all.
    Brexit shows that the UK is no longer right for Britain. It should be dissolved so that the English, as well as British nationalists in the other nations of the UK, are able to see themselves as equal Europeans.
    The whole reason we are exiting is because ultimately most people in these islands don't see themselves as European. Geographically speaking it could be argued either way. But I don't see an English Nationalist, or to a lesser extent a Scottish or Welsh Nationalist buying into some 'European' identity. That's not how they go (in my experience of Welsh Nationalists, it's the other way round).
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 29,116

    I used to be quite happy with being British, but the sheer incompetence of the govt & opposition, the venom and xenophobia of many leavers and the foolish antics of thr ultras have fatally tarnished my Britishness.

    I am lucky enough to have dual nationality and i now prefer to describe myself as Irish.

    Brexit hss destroyed the UK

    Anyone who has hedged their bets with dual nationality was clearly only "quite happy" being British.... Someone who drives both a Mini and a Land Rover is never going to be more than "quite happy" on the all-terrain road-holding of the Mini.

    Anyway, discussions around "Britishness" are utterly misplaced on a Six Nations weekend.

    I never "hedged [my] bets". I never even thought about being Irish until Brexit forced it on me. The Union Jack is a striking flag and denotes coming together with the union of the crosses of the various parts (except poor Wales).

    Brexit is not a British project, it is an English (and Welsh) one.

    Embracing my Irish citizenship is a symptom of the divisiveness of Brexit and it is forcing many other people into similar decisions. Not being English, Little-Englandism has zero appeal to me.
    It is neither of those things. It is a decision that full European Union membership is no longer right for Britain, particularly given the way it is going.

    You're certainly right to say it's divisive, which is very sad, but it's not an English project either. It's a UK decision. In 1975 Scotland was the most eurosceptic nation of them all.
    Brexit shows that the UK is no longer right for Britain. It should be dissolved so that the English, as well as British nationalists in the other nations of the UK, are able to see themselves as equal Europeans.

    At a minimum, Brexit has shown that the UK in its current form is not fit for purpose. England needs to go it alone.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 23,181
    ydoethur said:

    Mr. daodao, by some foreigners, perhaps.

    All nations have good and bad parts to their history. Your claims are significantly overblown, however.

    (Snip)

    As an example: Britain's role in the slave trade was horrible, and it casts a shadow over our history. There can be no excuses for it.

    Last Saturday I walked part of the London Loop walk. On the way, I passed the Wilberforce Oak, where Wilberforce and Pitt the Younger decided to table a bill to abolish the slave trade. It took many decades, but eventually it was done.

    But Britain did not just abolish our slave trade: we actively enforced a ban. The work of the West Africa Squadron cost a massive amount of treasure (2% of annual income annually for sixty years) and lives of our sailors, mainly to disease. 25% of sailors died in one year alone.

    But the results were significant: "Between 1808 and 1860 the West Africa Squadron captured 1,600 slave ships and freed 150,000 Africans." And that does not count the ones who were prevented from boarding slaving ships.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Africa_Squadron

    In addition, we gradually took a lead in preventing slaving by other countries. It has been argued that the costs of doing this were greater than the profits made from slaving in the previous hundred years.

    Does this in some way compensate for the previous 120 years of active slaving? No. It was hideous. But I can take some pride in our role in trying to abolish slavery worldwide.

    Except perhaps during the American civil war ...

    It would be crass to go on about our role in abolishing the Atlantic slave trade, without mentioning our earlier role in that trade. But I can take pride in our later actions.

    (Awaits Ydoethur...)
    Why? Can't see what's wrong with the analysis.

    You do perhaps miss how the slave trade was abolished as part of a wider trade embargo on Napoleonic France, but as that was basically a trick to slide it past the Liverpool block vote I don't see it's particulary relevant.
    Thanks. I'm far from being an expert on it, but I spent a little time this week refreshing myself on that aspect of our history after having visited the Wilberforce Oak.

    History's complex, innit? History and morality's even more so ... ;)
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 10,815


    That’s been proposed a number of times here but it does beg the question of what Remainers (currently the majority, if polls are to be believed) should vote in the first round. A single three-option vote with first and second preferences is clearer IMeversoHO.

    I don't get it, remainers should vote for whichever of the two they prefer in the first round, no? I mean, they could try to be clever and work out which of the two was most likely to lose to Remain, but it's not at all obvious which of the two that would be.

    The thing that *does* have a problem that people have occasionally suggested here is to make the second round conditional on choosing "No Deal" in the first round. That would makes the first round an incredibly weird choice (Deal vs a whatever's behind the mystery door marked No Deal vs Referendum) and be a deeply terribly idea. Luckily, even more than putting No Deal on the ballot in the first place, this particular stupid thing would have basically no supporters in parliament.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 2,716
    matt said:

    When one has articles this thoughtful and analytically interesting published for free, why do newspapers continue to pay the usual suspects to turn out the same tired and repetitive articles and comment (Sylvester, Toynbee, Johnson, the list goes on and on)?

    Because they are targeted at specific audiences who like to have their existing prejudices re-confirmed every day.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 284
    Very interesting; for myself I think as time begins to press the route to TMs deal, maybe slightly tweaked becomes more inevitable. What can't be estimated are the knock on consequences. There are a number of different games being played with the future of the British isles (these are all going to end up as question for Ireland too) in all this, with startling quantities of uncertainty. Questions for the short, medium and long term:

    1 Brexit outcome, relationship with EU
    2 Configuration of the nations/potential nations of the whole British isles (I would like to end with one, but 5 is thinkable)
    3 Shape of the political parties of the British isles (What if all the uneasy party internal coalitions presented to us daily all broke down)
    4 Who will lead each and every political party
    5 Who will win the next elections, and when
    6 Whether we stay or leave, what is the next black swan

    When last did no-one at all have any idea about the answers to any of these questions?

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 29,116
    The realisation that freedom of movement is a two way street will be one of the increasingly important post-Brexit stories.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 28,073

    I used to be quite happy with being British, but the sheer incompetence of the govt & opposition, the venom and xenophobia of many leavers and the foolish antics of thr ultras have fatally tarnished my Britishness.

    I am lucky enough to have dual nationality and i now prefer to describe myself as Irish.

    Brexit hss destroyed the UK

    Anyone who has hedged their bets with dual nationality was clearly only "quite happy" being British.... Someone who drives both a Mini and a Land Rover is never going to be more than "quite happy" on the all-terrain road-holding of the Mini.

    Anyway, discussions around "Britishness" are utterly misplaced on a Six Nations weekend.

    I never "hedged [my] bets". I never even thought about being Irish until Brexit forced it on me. The Union Jack is a striking flag and denotes coming together with the union of the crosses of the various parts (except poor Wales).

    Brexit is not a British project, it is an English (and Welsh) one.

    Embracing my Irish citizenship is a symptom of the divisiveness of Brexit and it is forcing many other people into similar decisions. Not being English, Little-Englandism has zero appeal to me.
    It is neither of those things. It is a decision that full European Union membership is no longer right for Britain, particularly given the way it is going.

    You're certainly right to say it's divisive, which is very sad, but it's not an English project either. It's a UK decision. In 1975 Scotland was the most eurosceptic nation of them all.
    Brexit shows that the UK is no longer right for Britain. It should be dissolved so that the English, as well as British nationalists in the other nations of the UK, are able to see themselves as equal Europeans.
    Your view is that the dissolution of the UK is just punishment for it choosing to leave the EU.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 28,073

    Mr. daodao, lucky for you, then, that May is not the arbiter nor the definition of Britishness, the epitome of the UK.

    Mr. Observer, I don't buy that line which you've consistently espoused. The EU is on a constant bearing towards integration. Opposing a United States of Europe (including the UK) does not mean one must be a nationalist or on the right. Supporting the right of a nation state to govern itself is a democratic approach, not a nationalist one.

    We never lost that right.
    That's where we disagree.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 17,400
    algarkirk said:


    2 Configuration of the nations/potential nations of the whole British isles (I would like to end with one, but 5 is thinkable)

    I cannot see how Northern Ireland would survive on its own. Its economy and political systems are simply not strong enough. If it leaves the UK then it would have to join with Ireland (or Scotland, at a stretch, but I don't think they'd be welcome).
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 26,978
    ydoethur said:

    I used to be quite happy with being British, but the sheer incompetence of the govt & opposition, the venom and xenophobia of many leavers and the foolish antics of thr ultras have fatally tarnished my Britishness.

    I am lucky enough to have dual nationality and i now prefer to describe myself as Irish.

    Brexit hss destroyed the UK

    Anyone who has hedged their bets with dual nationality was clearly only "quite happy" being British.... Someone who drives both a Mini and a Land Rover is never going to be more than "quite happy" on the all-terrain road-holding of the Mini.

    Anyway, discussions around "Britishness" are utterly misplaced on a Six Nations weekend.

    I never "hedged [my] bets". I never even thought about being Irish until Brexit forced it on me. The Union Jack is a striking flag and denotes coming together with the union of the crosses of the various parts (except poor Wales).

    Brexit is not a British project, it is an English (and Welsh) one.

    Embracing my Irish citizenship is a symptom of the divisiveness of Brexit and it is forcing many other people into similar decisions. Not being English, Little-Englandism has zero appeal to me.
    It is neither of those things. It is a decision that full European Union membership is no longer right for Britain, particularly given the way it is going.

    You're certainly right to say it's divisive, which is very sad, but it's not an English project either. It's a UK decision. In 1975 Scotland was the most eurosceptic nation of them all.
    Brexit shows that the UK is no longer right for Britain. It should be dissolved so that the English, as well as British nationalists in the other nations of the UK, are able to see themselves as equal Europeans.
    The whole reason we are exiting is because ultimately most people in these islands don't see themselves as European. Geographically speaking it could be argued either way. But I don't see an English Nationalist, or to a lesser extent a Scottish or Welsh Nationalist buying into some 'European' identity. That's not how they go (in my experience of Welsh Nationalists, it's the other way round).
    If “these islands” includes Ireland, then the very high levels of support for the EU in Ireland present a challenge to that argument. The strong Remain vote in Scotland, with a nationalist government, presents another.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 28,073

    malcolmg said:

    I used to be quite happy with being British, but the sheer incompetence of the govt & opposition, the venom and xenophobia of many leavers and the foolish antics of thr ultras have fatally tarnished my Britishness.

    I am lucky enough to have dual nationality and i now prefer to describe myself as Irish.

    Brexit hss destroyed the UK

    Anyone who has hedged their bets with dual nationality was clearly only "quite happy" being British.... Someone who drives both a Mini and a Land Rover is never going to be more than "quite happy" on the all-terrain road-holding of the Mini.

    Anyway, discussions around "Britishness" are utterly misplaced on a Six Nations weekend.

    I never "hedged [my] bets". I never even thought about being Irish until Brexit forced it on me. The Union Jack is a striking flag and denotes coming together with the union of the crosses of the various parts (except poor Wales).

    Brexit is not a British project, it is an English (and Welsh) one.

    Embracing my Irish citizenship is a symptom of the divisiveness of Brexit and it is forcing many other people into similar decisions. Not being English, Little-Englandism has zero appeal to me.
    It is neither of those things. It is a decision that full European Union membership is no longer right for Britain, particularly given the way it is going.

    You're certainly right to say it's divisive, which is very sad, but it's not an English project either. It's a UK decision. In 1975 Scotland was the most eurosceptic nation of them all.
    We are not talking 1975 and Scotland voted to stay in the EU. We will rejoin once we are independent though.

    Yep - Brexit was and is a project driven by right wing English nationalism, with some side support from right wing British nationalists who don’t quite get that the English nats would throw them overboard without a moment’s hesitation.

    That is a caricature, and unworthy of your intelligence.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 24,125

    Nah, it's a hyberbolic rant.

    Gloria de Piero was much better yesterday.
    Both are essential reading and in some ways companion pieces. Britain is in an awful mess that is getting worse.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 21,364

    I used to be quite happy with being British, but the sheer incompetence of the govt & opposition, the venom and xenophobia of many leavers and the foolish antics of thr ultras have fatally tarnished my Britishness.

    I am lucky enough to have dual nationality and i now prefer to describe myself as Irish.

    Brexit hss destroyed the UK

    Anyone who has hedged their bets with dual nationality was clearly only "quite happy" being British.... Someone who drives both a Mini and a Land Rover is never going to be more than "quite happy" on the all-terrain road-holding of the Mini.

    Anyway, discussions around "Britishness" are utterly misplaced on a Six Nations weekend.

    I never "hedged [my] bets". I never even thought about being Irish until Brexit forced it on me. The Union Jack is a striking flag and denotes coming together with the union of the crosses of the various parts (except poor Wales).

    Brexit is not a British project, it is an English (and Welsh) one.

    Embracing my Irish citizenship is a symptom of the divisiveness of Brexit and it is forcing many other people into similar decisions. Not being English, Little-Englandism has zero appeal to me.

    My guess is that a fair number of staunchly British DUP voters have Irish passports. Like most English Brexiteers, Mr Mark knows absolutely nothing about Ireland - north or south!

    What an arrogant asshole your post shows yourself to be.

    You know nothing about my understanding of Ireland. Nor could you ever. We have never met.

    Accusing someone who holds an Irish and British passport of hedging their bets says it all, I’m afraid.

    Adding pompous to the charge sheet as well, I see.

    "Says it all, I'm afraid". What an arse you are.

    If someone has options as to where they choose to treat as their home nation under their multiple passports, they have not the same level of enforced commitment to a country as those of us having just the one. Is that too difficult a concept for you to understand?

    You’re saying that a Northern Irish unionist with an Irish passport has less commitment to the UK than you do. I think that betrays a profound ignorance of the dynamics of Irish history and identity. Sorry.

    Whatever. I'll go back to booking my next trip to Ireland....
    Mark, you will not learn that in 5 star hotels.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 28,073
    malcolmg said:

    I used to be quite happy with being British, but the sheer incompetence of the govt & opposition, the venom and xenophobia of many leavers and the foolish antics of thr ultras have fatally tarnished my Britishness.

    I am lucky enough to have dual nationality and i now prefer to describe myself as Irish.

    Brexit hss destroyed the UK

    Anyone who has hedged their bets with dual nationality was clearly only "quite happy" being British.... Someone who drives both a Mini and a Land Rover is never going to be more than "quite happy" on the all-terrain road-holding of the Mini.

    Anyway, discussions around "Britishness" are utterly misplaced on a Six Nations weekend.

    I never "hedged [my] bets". I never even thought about being Irish until Brexit forced it on me. The Union Jack is a striking flag and denotes coming together with the union of the crosses of the various parts (except poor Wales).

    Brexit is not a British project, it is an English (and Welsh) one.

    Embracing my Irish citizenship is a symptom of the divisiveness of Brexit and it is forcing many other people into similar decisions. Not being English, Little-Englandism has zero appeal to me.
    It is neither of those things. It is a decision that full European Union membership is no longer right for Britain, particularly given the way it is going.

    You're certainly right to say it's divisive, which is very sad, but it's not an English project either. It's a UK decision. In 1975 Scotland was the most eurosceptic nation of them all.
    We are not talking 1975 and Scotland voted to stay in the EU. We will rejoin once we are independent though.
    Didn't you vote for Brexit?

    My point is that a nationalist argument based on the europhilia of England dragging Scotland into the EEC against its will could have been made in 1975, just as the opposite is made now.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 10,822
    Well done David. Stlylishly written. It doesn't seem to contain an attractive solution but for that we can blame Hartlepool not you.

    James Naughty pointed out that we have two nations of the UK for Remain and two for Leave. If Brexit happens the two nations which voted Remain will never accept the result and vice versa.The likely outcome is that we move to a more federal structure which will move the goalposts all over the place and change the nature of the UK more than Brexit ever could

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 29,116
    ydoethur said:

    I used to be quite happy with being British, but the sheer incompetence of the govt & opposition, the venom and xenophobia of many leavers and the foolish antics of thr ultras have fatally tarnished my Britishness.

    I am lucky enough to have dual nationality and i now prefer to describe myself as Irish.

    Brexit hss destroyed the UK

    Anyone who has hedged their bets with dual nationality was clearly only "quite happy" being British.... Someone who drives both a Mini and a Land Rover is never going to be more than "quite happy" on the all-terrain road-holding of the Mini.

    Anyway, discussions around "Britishness" are utterly misplaced on a Six Nations weekend.

    I never "hedged [my] bets". I never even thought about being Irish until Brexit forced it on me. The Union Jack is a striking flag and denotes coming together with the union of the crosses of the various parts (except poor Wales).

    Brexit is not a British project, it is an English (and Welsh) one.

    Embracing my Irish citizenship is a symptom of the divisiveness of Brexit and it is forcing many other people into similar decisions. Not being English, Little-Englandism has zero appeal to me.
    It is neither of those things. It is a decision that full European Union membership is no longer right for Britain, particularly given the way it is going.

    You're certainly right to say it's divisive, which is very sad, but it's not an English project either. It's a UK decision. In 1975 Scotland was the most eurosceptic nation of them all.
    Brexit shows that the UK is no longer right for Britain. It should be dissolved so that the English, as well as British nationalists in the other nations of the UK, are able to see themselves as equal Europeans.
    The whole reason we are exiting is because ultimately most people in these islands don't see themselves as European. Geographically speaking it could be argued either way. But I don't see an English Nationalist, or to a lesser extent a Scottish or Welsh Nationalist buying into some 'European' identity. That's not how they go (in my experience of Welsh Nationalists, it's the other way round).

    English nationalists won’t for sure, but Irish nationalists already have - in part, at least, because it emphasises moving on from the past and into a wider, non-British world. It’s not hard to imagine the Scots and the Welsh doing the same. Both the SNP and Plaid Cymru make a very big deal out of being pro-EU.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 21,364
    ydoethur said:

    Mr. daodao, by some foreigners, perhaps.

    All nations have good and bad parts to their history. Your claims are significantly overblown, however.

    (Snip)

    As an example: Britain's role in the slave trade was horrible, and it casts a shadow over our history. There can be no excuses for it.

    Last Saturday I walked part of the London Loop walk. On the way, I passed the Wilberforce Oak, where Wilberforce and Pitt the Younger decided to table a bill to abolish the slave trade. It took many decades, but eventually it was done.

    But Britain did not just abolish our slave trade: we actively enforced a ban. The work of the West Africa Squadron cost a massive amount of treasure (2% of annual income annually for sixty years) and lives of our sailors, mainly to disease. 25% of sailors died in one year alone.

    But the results were significant: "Between 1808 and 1860 the West Africa Squadron captured 1,600 slave ships and freed 150,000 Africans." And that does not count the ones who were prevented from boarding slaving ships.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Africa_Squadron

    In addition, we gradually took a lead in preventing slaving by other countries. It has been argued that the costs of doing this were greater than the profits made from slaving in the previous hundred years.

    Does this in some way compensate for the previous 120 years of active slaving? No. It was hideous. But I can take some pride in our role in trying to abolish slavery worldwide.

    Except perhaps during the American civil war ...

    It would be crass to go on about our role in abolishing the Atlantic slave trade, without mentioning our earlier role in that trade. But I can take pride in our later actions.

    (Awaits Ydoethur...)
    Why? Can't see what's wrong with the analysis.

    You do perhaps miss how the slave trade was abolished as part of a wider trade embargo on Napoleonic France, but as that was basically a trick to slide it past the Liverpool block vote I don't see it's particulary relevant.
    It was 200 years ago, only relevant as a historical fact. All these snowflakes wanting us to self flagellate over things done hundreds of years ago need to get a life. It is called history for a reason.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 2,341
    "I really don’t see the EU moving its red lines, even at the cost of a No Deal outcome (note that even if nothing has been agreed by 29 March, it might still be possible to resurrect the original deal as a scramble back to some sort of framework."

    I wonder whether this may be quite a likely outcome: No Deal followed by the resurrection of the Deal as an emergency measure (obviously with whatever legal changes need to be made for it to be adopted post facto).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 42,247
    There's no could be about it. So many just insist it cannot happen because it's awful. They also ignore many politicians potentially gain from the outcome, at least at first.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 24,125

    I used to be quite happy with being British, but the sheer incompetence of the govt & opposition, the venom and xenophobia of many leavers and the foolish antics of thr ultras have fatally tarnished my Britishness.

    I am lucky enough to have dual nationality and i now prefer to describe myself as Irish.

    Brexit hss destroyed the UK

    Anyone who has hedged their bets with dual nationality was clearly only "quite happy" being British.... Someone who drives both a Mini and a Land Rover is never going to be more than "quite happy" on the all-terrain road-holding of the Mini.

    Anyway, discussions around "Britishness" are utterly misplaced on a Six Nations weekend.

    I never "hedged [my] bets". I never even thought about being Irish until Brexit forced it on me. The Union Jack is a striking flag and denotes coming together with the union of the crosses of the various parts (except poor Wales).

    Brexit is not a British project, it is an English (and Welsh) one.

    Embracing my Irish citizenship is a symptom of the divisiveness of Brexit and it is forcing many other people into similar decisions. Not being English, Little-Englandism has zero appeal to me.
    It is neither of those things. It is a decision that full European Union membership is no longer right for Britain, particularly given the way it is going.

    You're certainly right to say it's divisive, which is very sad, but it's not an English project either. It's a UK decision. In 1975 Scotland was the most eurosceptic nation of them all.
    Brexit shows that the UK is no longer right for Britain. It should be dissolved so that the English, as well as British nationalists in the other nations of the UK, are able to see themselves as equal Europeans.

    At a minimum, Brexit has shown that the UK in its current form is not fit for purpose. England needs to go it alone.

    Provincial England. Why drag London into this? It’s the region of the U.K. that is most staunchly opposed to the narrow backward-looking nationalism of provincial England.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 28,073

    Nah, it's a hyberbolic rant.

    Gloria de Piero was much better yesterday.
    Both are essential reading and in some ways companion pieces. Britain is in an awful mess that is getting worse.
    Only one was essential, the other was a ten-a-penny standard europhile rant.

    I don't share your pessimism about the UK. We will be fine.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 284
    ydoethur said:

    algarkirk said:


    2 Configuration of the nations/potential nations of the whole British isles (I would like to end with one, but 5 is thinkable)

    I cannot see how Northern Ireland would survive on its own. Its economy and political systems are simply not strong enough. If it leaves the UK then it would have to join with Ireland (or Scotland, at a stretch, but I don't think they'd be welcome).
    Agree. Thinkable doesn't mean good. There is a conceivable step in which N Ireland is at least for a time independent constitutionally from both GB and the Republic while by a series of referenda it decides its own future as between uniting with the Republic, status quo or independence (in or out of EU - they voted remain!)

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 28,073

    The realisation that freedom of movement is a two way street will be one of the increasingly important post-Brexit stories.

    I don't think so. I only ever holiday in Europe for a few weeks, or work there on short-trips. That'll be unaffected.

    Those retiring there (people generally only retire to one place) will simply need to get a residency visa. Just as Brits do for Australia.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 13,985

    I used to be quite happy with being British, but the sheer incompetence of the govt & opposition, the venom and xenophobia of many leavers and the foolish antics of thr ultras have fatally tarnished my Britishness.

    I am lucky enough to have dual nationality and i now prefer to describe myself as Irish.

    Brexit hss destroyed the UK

    Anyone who has hedged their bets with dual nationality was clearly only "quite happy" being British.... Someone who drives both a Mini and a Land Rover is never going to be more than "quite happy" on the all-terrain road-holding of the Mini.

    Anyway, discussions around "Britishness" are utterly misplaced on a Six Nations weekend.

    I never "hedged [my] bets". I never even thought about being Irish until Brexit forced it on me. The Union Jack is a striking flag and denotes coming together with the union of the crosses of the various parts (except poor Wales).

    Brexit is not a British project, it is an English (and Welsh) one.

    Embracing my Irish citizenship is a symptom of the divisiveness of Brexit and it is forcing many other people into similar decisions. Not being English, Little-Englandism has zero appeal to me.

    My guess is that a fair number of staunchly British DUP voters have Irish passports. Like most English Brexiteers, Mr Mark knows absolutely nothing about Ireland - north or south!

    What an arrogant asshole your post shows yourself to be.

    You know nothing about my understanding of Ireland. Nor could you ever. We have never met.

    Accusing someone who holds an Irish and British passport of hedging their bets says it all, I’m afraid.

    Adding pompous to the charge sheet as well, I see.

    "Says it all, I'm afraid". What an arse you are.

    If someone has options as to where they choose to treat as their home nation under their multiple passports, they have not the same level of enforced commitment to a country as those of us having just the one. Is that too difficult a concept for you to understand?

    You’re saying that a Northern Irish unionist with an Irish passport has less commitment to the UK than you do. I think that betrays a profound ignorance of the dynamics of Irish history and identity. Sorry.

    Whatever. I'll go back to booking my next trip to Ireland....
    Will they let you back after the last time?

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 28,073

    I used to be quite happy with being British, but the sheer incompetence of the govt & opposition, the venom and xenophobia of many leavers and the foolish antics of thr ultras have fatally tarnished my Britishness.

    I am lucky enough to have dual nationality and i now prefer to describe myself as Irish.

    Brexit hss destroyed the UK

    Anyone who has hedged their bets with dual nationality was clearly only "quite happy" being British.... Someone who drives both a Mini and a Land Rover is never going to be more than "quite happy" on the all-terrain road-holding of the Mini.

    Anyway, discussions around "Britishness" are utterly misplaced on a Six Nations weekend.

    I never "hedged [my] bets". I never even thought about being Irish until Brexit forced it on me. The Union Jack is a striking flag and denotes coming together with the union of the crosses of the various parts (except poor Wales).

    Brexit is not a British project, it is an English (and Welsh) one.

    Embracing my Irish citizenship is a symptom of the divisiveness of Brexit and it is forcing many other people into similar decisions. Not being English, Little-Englandism has zero appeal to me.
    It is neither of those things. It is a decision that full European Union membership is no longer right for Britain, particularly given the way it is going.

    You're certainly right to say it's divisive, which is very sad, but it's not an English project either. It's a UK decision. In 1975 Scotland was the most eurosceptic nation of them all.
    Brexit shows that the UK is no longer right for Britain. It should be dissolved so that the English, as well as British nationalists in the other nations of the UK, are able to see themselves as equal Europeans.

    At a minimum, Brexit has shown that the UK in its current form is not fit for purpose. England needs to go it alone.

    It has shown no such thing.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 20,673
    Morning all,

    Farage in full flow in Telegraph over his new Brexit party. It will not have an NEC, but will be run by the leader "like a company" with a board the leader appoints himself.

    He believes in the long run it will be a threat to the main parties, as voters now divide over Leave/Remain rather than other issues.

    This development was probably inevitable, since most European countries have a right nationalist/populist party (separate from any existing centre-right unit).

    Deeply worrying imho.

    I'm not so sure we can just hope FPTP will save us from this man.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 21,364
    ydoethur said:

    algarkirk said:


    2 Configuration of the nations/potential nations of the whole British isles (I would like to end with one, but 5 is thinkable)

    I cannot see how Northern Ireland would survive on its own. Its economy and political systems are simply not strong enough. If it leaves the UK then it would have to join with Ireland (or Scotland, at a stretch, but I don't think they'd be welcome).
    Ireland can have them thanks, we have enough dinosaurs as it is on that topic, selfish preference would be to ship them over there and improve Scotland.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 24,355
    malcolmg said:

    >Mark, you will not learn that in 5 star hotels.

    As a birder and a twitcher, I've slept in more B&Bs (and quite often, camped, or slept in my car) more than most on here.

    It's the Good Lady Wifi that likes her creature comforts. With a spa....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 17,400
    edited February 9

    ydoethur said:

    The whole reason we are exiting is because ultimately most people in these islands don't see themselves as European. Geographically speaking it could be argued either way. But I don't see an English Nationalist, or to a lesser extent a Scottish or Welsh Nationalist buying into some 'European' identity. That's not how they go (in my experience of Welsh Nationalists, it's the other way round).

    If “these islands” includes Ireland, then the very high levels of support for the EU in Ireland present a challenge to that argument. The strong Remain vote in Scotland, with a nationalist government, presents another.
    You are confusing 'support for the EU' with 'feeling European.' That is of course a dichotomy they encourage and which my less than brilliantly chosen words above seem to have reinforced.

    I think you would be surprised, possibly unpleasantly so, at how much of that support is because the EU is seen as a powerful and highly effective counterweight to nine centuries of English political hegemony in the British Isles.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 42,247

    A couple of points on David's thought-provoking analysis.

    1. "No Deal" comes in various forms. If it becomes apparent that no general deal can be agreed, there will certainly be lots of holding arrangements - we really aren't going to get into the state where nobody can travel and medicine runs out, because literally nobody on either side of the Channel wants that. The theoretical possibility of a total no deal is there because TM finds it useful to make her deal look better. If her deal definitively dies, alternative arrangements will necessarily be made. In betting terms, I'm not sure if that counts as No Deal or not.

    2. There may well be a Parliamentary majority AND EU agrement to renegotiate on the basis of the Corbyn package - the EU signals on this are pretty clear, as are the comments from Boles, Clarke etc. At some stage, Parliament will have the opportunity to say so and instruct the government to pursue it. But if TM refuses, then will Parliament actually VONC her? That is less clear, and we could end up with a different kind of deadlock.

    If parliament wants another option and she won't do it those Tories backing must stop cocking about and bring down the government. Yes yes, party loyalty is hard to overcome and all that bollocks, but this is too important.
This discussion has been closed.