Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters could still be under-rating the chances of No Deal

1235»

Comments

  • Options
    Ireland struggling with their backstop. Come on Scotland
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095

    Ireland struggling with their backstop. Come on Scotland

    Kinghorn has been massive - why did he not start?
  • Options

    Ireland struggling with their backstop. Come on Scotland

    Kinghorn has been massive - why did he not start?
    Not too much into rugby but when it comes to Scotland v Ireland, Scotland wins everytime
  • Options
    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    "The Telegraph reported that what Japan really wants is for the UK to join the TPP not have a bilateral FTA"

    Australia seems to take the opposite view. They want a bilateral deal first and then might look at the TPP - although they do note the UK does not border the Pacific.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/australian-trade-minister-pours-cold-water-on-britain-s-post-brexit-tpp-plan-20190122-p50sry.html

    But it does open a trade deal with Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam and perhaps others.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,635

    Remainers very upset here today. It's possibly slowly dawning that Brexit is happening, so now their only comfort is telling each other and anyone else who may be listening what a horrendous disaster it will be. Sad.

    Clip clop, clip clop...
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,141
    edited February 2019
    @ another richard

    Thank you. That looks like it might be worth watching. And more relevant because Deer Hunter is really a Vietnam film. Came out at about the same time as Apocalypse Now, IIRC, and you had to be one or the other. No fence-sitting.

    It was like Beatles v Stones, Oasis v Blur, David or Donny, Round ball or Oval, Messi or Ronaldo, Grape or Grain, Morecambe or Wise, Little or Large, Town or Country, Horse or Hounds ...

    For all the yakking about the Leave/Remain divide, these deep fissures in society are nothing new.
  • Options

    United in top four slot 1 point ahead of Chelsea who play City tomorrow away

    Ole catches up 11 points in a run of 10 wins and a draw

    And turned Pogba into the best player in the league

    Are you watching Mourinho. Same players so no excuse

    It does suggest some of the players weren't trying very hard previously.
    They were demoralised by Mourinho negative play and confrontation management.
    Or perhaps some of them weren't trying very hard.
    If your manager undermines you and causes dissent throughout the team what motivates you
    What motivates you ?????????

    These aren't local park on a Sunday morning players.

    Pride in your own performance motivates you.
    Attempting to win trophies motivates you.
    Fan support motivates you.
    The honour of playing for a great club motivates you.
    A fucking huge pay package motivates you.

    Footballers have to take some responsibility for their own performance.
    Do workers if they lose confidence in their boss who publicly humilates them
    Yes.

    People need to take responsibility for their own performance.
  • Options
    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Remainers very upset here today. It's possibly slowly dawning that Brexit is happening, so now their only comfort is telling each other and anyone else who may be listening what a horrendous disaster it will be. Sad.

    It has been hard on remainers. Initially there didn't seem any way that Brexit could be stopped. And yet somehow the ineptness of the leavers keeps raising the chances that the whole process could simply grind to a halt because they don't know what they are doing. The curious thing is this. If I really believed in a project and saw it being handled so badly, I'd be really angry with the people in charge. And yet leavers still seem to be fighting the battle with the people they have already beaten in the referendum.

  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,930

    Remainers very upset here today. It's possibly slowly dawning that Brexit is happening, so now their only comfort is telling each other and anyone else who may be listening what a horrendous disaster it will be. Sad.

    It has been hard on remainers. Initially there didn't seem any way that Brexit could be stopped. And yet somehow the ineptness of the leavers keeps raising the chances that the whole process could simply grind to a halt because they don't know what they are doing. The curious thing is this. If I really believed in a project and saw it being handled so badly, I'd be really angry with the people in charge. And yet leavers still seem to be fighting the battle with the people they have already beaten in the referendum.

    Demonstrates what a daft idea it was to have Leavers at the top of anything!
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    And yet leavers still seem to be fighting the battle with the people they have already beaten in the referendum.

    They won, but seem very, very reluctant to suck it up...
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961

    Remainers very upset here today. It's possibly slowly dawning that Brexit is happening, so now their only comfort is telling each other and anyone else who may be listening what a horrendous disaster it will be. Sad.

    It has been hard on remainers. Initially there didn't seem any way that Brexit could be stopped. And yet somehow the ineptness of the leavers keeps raising the chances that the whole process could simply grind to a halt because they don't know what they are doing. The curious thing is this. If I really believed in a project and saw it being handled so badly, I'd be really angry with the people in charge. And yet leavers still seem to be fighting the battle with the people they have already beaten in the referendum.

    Demonstrates what a daft idea it was to have Leavers at the top of anything!
    They aren't, last time I checked ;)
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,930
    Meanwhile the crickets going on and England are 16-0, although that's off nearly 12 overs!
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    Scott_P said:
    I got the impression he was quite content.
  • Options
    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    RobD said:

    Remainers very upset here today. It's possibly slowly dawning that Brexit is happening, so now their only comfort is telling each other and anyone else who may be listening what a horrendous disaster it will be. Sad.

    It has been hard on remainers. Initially there didn't seem any way that Brexit could be stopped. And yet somehow the ineptness of the leavers keeps raising the chances that the whole process could simply grind to a halt because they don't know what they are doing. The curious thing is this. If I really believed in a project and saw it being handled so badly, I'd be really angry with the people in charge. And yet leavers still seem to be fighting the battle with the people they have already beaten in the referendum.

    Demonstrates what a daft idea it was to have Leavers at the top of anything!
    They aren't, last time I checked ;)
    There are plenty of them around - though a lot of them seem to have found excuses to resign.

    Are you sure this project is really worth pursuing?
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,635

    Remainers very upset here today. It's possibly slowly dawning that Brexit is happening, so now their only comfort is telling each other and anyone else who may be listening what a horrendous disaster it will be. Sad.

    It has been hard on remainers. Initially there didn't seem any way that Brexit could be stopped. And yet somehow the ineptness of the leavers keeps raising the chances that the whole process could simply grind to a halt because they don't know what they are doing. The curious thing is this. If I really believed in a project and saw it being handled so badly, I'd be really angry with the people in charge. And yet leavers still seem to be fighting the battle with the people they have already beaten in the referendum.

    For some Leavers, the point is not to win, the point is to wage a culture war. If the EU ceased to exist overnight, they would still complain about it.
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    justin124 said:

    Nigelb said:

    justin124 said:

    That is an excellent article - though though I cannot agree with Max Weber's assertion that Britain was ' a working democracy' in the years before January 1919 given that the franchise had been restricted to circa 60% of the male population. That is as ludicrous as describing Apartheid South Africa as a 'working democracy' because elections were held on a regular basis.
    No, it’s not.
    By the standards of the day, Britain was a working democracy, however imperfect. Difficult to assert the same about apartheid South Africa.

    The same could be said of 'the standards of the day' in Apartheid South Africa.
    Nope - S. Africa was out of step with most of the RoW by around 50 years.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    RobD said:

    I got the impression he was quite content.

    Yeah, he is always really happy and cheery...
  • Options

    Remainers very upset here today. It's possibly slowly dawning that Brexit is happening, so now their only comfort is telling each other and anyone else who may be listening what a horrendous disaster it will be. Sad.

    It has been hard on remainers. Initially there didn't seem any way that Brexit could be stopped. And yet somehow the ineptness of the leavers keeps raising the chances that the whole process could simply grind to a halt because they don't know what they are doing. The curious thing is this. If I really believed in a project and saw it being handled so badly, I'd be really angry with the people in charge. And yet leavers still seem to be fighting the battle with the people they have already beaten in the referendum.

    Demonstrates what a daft idea it was to have Leavers at the top of anything!
    What staggers me is that people like Fox and Grayling seem to have guaranteed places on the Conservative front bench.
  • Options


    As a Londoner born and bred I have a lot of sympathy with that. I’d only note that many of the most dynamic parts of England - Manchester, Leeds, Bristol, Brighton, Norwich, Oxford, Cambridge, Leamington (!!) - are pretty much on the same page. Leave voting England is utterly dependent on Remain voting England. It’s very much like the red and blue states in the US.

    Actually Remain voting England - being mostly concentrated in the urban wastelands - is utterly dependent on Leave voting England for all its basic necessities. If and when civilisation collapses you can be sure Lincolnshire will fare far better than London.
    People in Lincolnshire are certainly in a better position to forage for nuts and berries than people in Islington. But I don't think it is going to be that bad is it?
    Wait until the EU have to organise the London Airlift in 2025, while the Brexiteers live on lincolnshire sausages and gingerbread.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,138

    Meanwhile the crickets going on and England are 16-0, although that's off nearly 12 overs!

    Jennings very fortunate to still be there. Out lbw but not reviewed, routine catch dropped, other chances not going to hand, no shots of note. If Jennings is the answer England are asking the wrong questions.
  • Options
    viewcode said:

    Remainers very upset here today. It's possibly slowly dawning that Brexit is happening, so now their only comfort is telling each other and anyone else who may be listening what a horrendous disaster it will be. Sad.

    It has been hard on remainers. Initially there didn't seem any way that Brexit could be stopped. And yet somehow the ineptness of the leavers keeps raising the chances that the whole process could simply grind to a halt because they don't know what they are doing. The curious thing is this. If I really believed in a project and saw it being handled so badly, I'd be really angry with the people in charge. And yet leavers still seem to be fighting the battle with the people they have already beaten in the referendum.

    For some Leavers, the point is not to win, the point is to wage a culture war. If the EU ceased to exist overnight, they would still complain about it.
    Margaret Thatcher ceased to exist as a political force quite a few years ago - and people still complain about her. (Probably quite rightly) - The EU will leave a legacy that will take decades to cleanse.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,141

    Meanwhile the crickets going on and England are 16-0, although that's off nearly 12 overs!

    Slowly, patiently, painfully even, putting together a solid foundation on which to build going forwards.

    So very much like the Withdrawal Agreement in this regard.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    Roger said:

    You saw 'Boy Erased'?

    No, that's just out, I think, isn't it. Kidman and Crowe. Probably will see it.

    But I do tend to have a movie playing in my head when I think about American blue collar - since it is a topic of which (like most topics I opine on) I have zero experience - and it is always the same one.

    Deer Hunter.
    Filmed four decades ago, about a story a decade older still...
    I've been catching up this week. Odd how many are about the 'American condition' all set thirty odd years ago. 'Boy Erased' about Evangelicals sending their son to a corrective school to get rid of his homosexuality. 'Vice' a biography of Dick Cheney. So OTT even in these days of Trump it's difficult to accept such corruption was endemic and finally Green Book about the age old story of prejudice in the Deep South.

    I suppose for all of us scratching our heads it goes some way to explaining where Trump got it from
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    Scott_P said:

    RobD said:

    I got the impression he was quite content.

    Yeah, he is always really happy and cheery...
    I think it just goes to show I'm a terrible judge of character :p
  • Options
    ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    edited February 2019
    One thing that is obvious is that the rest of the world is talking trade with the UK if they are not in official negotiations yet. They have all displayed their smarts by looking at the EU refusing to talk trade with the UK on a point of principle and thought well will we have that trade surplus that the EU can not be bothered to protect.

    EU businesses must be looking on in disbelief at the actions of the EU.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,029

    viewcode said:

    Remainers very upset here today. It's possibly slowly dawning that Brexit is happening, so now their only comfort is telling each other and anyone else who may be listening what a horrendous disaster it will be. Sad.

    It has been hard on remainers. Initially there didn't seem any way that Brexit could be stopped. And yet somehow the ineptness of the leavers keeps raising the chances that the whole process could simply grind to a halt because they don't know what they are doing. The curious thing is this. If I really believed in a project and saw it being handled so badly, I'd be really angry with the people in charge. And yet leavers still seem to be fighting the battle with the people they have already beaten in the referendum.

    For some Leavers, the point is not to win, the point is to wage a culture war. If the EU ceased to exist overnight, they would still complain about it.
    Margaret Thatcher ceased to exist as a political force quite a few years ago - and people still complain about her. (Probably quite rightly) - The EU will leave a legacy that will take decades to cleanse.
    Brexit won't make the EU go away. If we leave it, it won't just leave a legacy but will continue to be a part of our lives for the rest of our lives.
  • Options
    Glad to see a substantial England partnership for the first wicket for a change.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,635

    viewcode said:

    Remainers very upset here today. It's possibly slowly dawning that Brexit is happening, so now their only comfort is telling each other and anyone else who may be listening what a horrendous disaster it will be. Sad.

    It has been hard on remainers. Initially there didn't seem any way that Brexit could be stopped. And yet somehow the ineptness of the leavers keeps raising the chances that the whole process could simply grind to a halt because they don't know what they are doing. The curious thing is this. If I really believed in a project and saw it being handled so badly, I'd be really angry with the people in charge. And yet leavers still seem to be fighting the battle with the people they have already beaten in the referendum.

    For some Leavers, the point is not to win, the point is to wage a culture war. If the EU ceased to exist overnight, they would still complain about it.
    Margaret Thatcher ceased to exist as a political force quite a few years ago - and people still complain about her. (Probably quite rightly) - The EU will leave a legacy that will take decades to cleanse.
    So this is just year 3 (year 6? year X?) of the Eternal European War? Oh...joy. :(
  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,292
    edited February 2019
    Quite a hoot that Grayling has pulled the plug on Seabourne. Where are all those PBers who were assuring me it was a sound and perfectly scrutinzed business plan?
  • Options
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Remainers very upset here today. It's possibly slowly dawning that Brexit is happening, so now their only comfort is telling each other and anyone else who may be listening what a horrendous disaster it will be. Sad.

    It has been hard on remainers. Initially there didn't seem any way that Brexit could be stopped. And yet somehow the ineptness of the leavers keeps raising the chances that the whole process could simply grind to a halt because they don't know what they are doing. The curious thing is this. If I really believed in a project and saw it being handled so badly, I'd be really angry with the people in charge. And yet leavers still seem to be fighting the battle with the people they have already beaten in the referendum.

    For some Leavers, the point is not to win, the point is to wage a culture war. If the EU ceased to exist overnight, they would still complain about it.
    Margaret Thatcher ceased to exist as a political force quite a few years ago - and people still complain about her. (Probably quite rightly) - The EU will leave a legacy that will take decades to cleanse.
    So this is just year 3 (year 6? year X?) of the Eternal European War? Oh...joy. :(
    Will depend on what the EU decide to do. Will it be an acrimonious divorce or will it be a case of 'still good friends'.
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,100
    Just keeping track of the current implied probabilities according to Betfair:
    Leave with No Deal on March 29: 24%
    Deal passed by the Commons by March 29: 41%
    Extension: 73%

    To my mind that implies the probability of the EU agreeing to an extension without a deal being passed first is about 32%.

    Too high?
  • Options
    Trimble explains his thinking in seeking a judicial review of backstop:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/02/08/legal-fight-aims-fix-backstop-stop-hard-border-protect-union/
  • Options

    Remainers very upset here today. It's possibly slowly dawning that Brexit is happening, so now their only comfort is telling each other and anyone else who may be listening what a horrendous disaster it will be. Sad.

    It has been hard on remainers. Initially there didn't seem any way that Brexit could be stopped. And yet somehow the ineptness of the leavers keeps raising the chances that the whole process could simply grind to a halt because they don't know what they are doing. The curious thing is this. If I really believed in a project and saw it being handled so badly, I'd be really angry with the people in charge. And yet leavers still seem to be fighting the battle with the people they have already beaten in the referendum.

    Yep, it's strange one. It shouldn't just be Remainers who are totally pissed off with the way that Brexit has progressed. The Bumbling Buccaneers spent years telling us how essential it was to leave the EU, but it turns out they had absolutely no idea how to do it because they had never actually bothered to find out how anything works. They could not be arsed. Their lazy, entitled, backward-looking, xenophobic world view is going to cause serious problems for many years to come. But the good news is that their wealth and privilege means they'll be OK - until they go to that special corner of hell reserved for them!

  • Options
    notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Chris said:

    Scott_P said:

    Chris said:

    BUT if both parties want to "unexpire" the arrangements, no doubt they can do so. Why not?

    You can't unexpire an agreement that expired.

    You can sign a new one.
    Yes of course. Technically it would be a new agreement, reinstating the terms of the agreement that had previously been offered.

    I've been as clear as I possibly could about that all along. In every one of my comments I've stressed that the legal technicalities would be different, but that if both parties wished to reinstate the agreement, they could do so.

    I don't wish to be rude, but if the point you're trying to make is that you're too stupid to grasp something that has been put to you over and over again, you've certainly succeeded.
    Once we fall out of the EU's existing free trade agreements via No Deal, I don't think we can simply ressurect them via signing an agreement
    We fall out of the EU's existing free trade agreements deal or no deal.
    And as the Japanese example makes very clear, even our friends are not falling over themselves to replicate what we have/had as EU members.

    Let’s make this absolutely clear. As a member of the EU we have traded with Japan for the last 47 years without a trade deal, and in recent times on WTO agreements. We have only been party to a trade deal for nine days. Yes nine days. But the UK’s failure to replicate such a deal immediately is somehow some major failure.

    PS the first major decision a Japanese manufacturer has made following this agreement is to reconsider its decision to manufacture one of its cars within the EU but instead carry on manufacturing it in Japan and export it free of tariffs.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,635

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Remainers very upset here today. It's possibly slowly dawning that Brexit is happening, so now their only comfort is telling each other and anyone else who may be listening what a horrendous disaster it will be. Sad.

    It has been hard on remainers. Initially there didn't seem any way that Brexit could be stopped. And yet somehow the ineptness of the leavers keeps raising the chances that the whole process could simply grind to a halt because they don't know what they are doing. The curious thing is this. If I really believed in a project and saw it being handled so badly, I'd be really angry with the people in charge. And yet leavers still seem to be fighting the battle with the people they have already beaten in the referendum.

    For some Leavers, the point is not to win, the point is to wage a culture war. If the EU ceased to exist overnight, they would still complain about it.
    Margaret Thatcher ceased to exist as a political force quite a few years ago - and people still complain about her. (Probably quite rightly) - The EU will leave a legacy that will take decades to cleanse.
    So this is just year 3 (year 6? year X?) of the Eternal European War? Oh...joy. :(
    Will depend on what the EU decide to do. Will it be an acrimonious divorce or will it be a case of 'still good friends'.
    I think whatever the EU does some Leavers will seek out a flaw, magnify it to the size of the Milky Way, then scream about it incessantly until the next one.
  • Options
    Rees-Mogg is suggesting that the Irish government covertly sabotaged the Seabourne deal, presumably to embarrass Grayling.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Rees-Mogg is suggesting that the Irish government covertly sabotaged the Seabourne deal, presumably to embarrass Grayling.

    Will there ever come a day when are not obliged to hear from that bumbling imbecile?

    Or Grayling?
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,100
    "As reported, I am working on a judicial review – a letter before claim is on its way to government lawyers – in the hope that the May government will talk to Dublin as well as Brussels."

    It doesn't even seem to be clear whether he's sent the letter yet. And apparently the motivation for the preparation he is doing is to get the government to talk to Dublin, rather than to obtain an effective judgment.

    Is there any reason to think Trimble's initiative will ever actually get as far as a court?
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,917
    edited February 2019

    Quite a hoot that Grayling has pulled the plug on Seabourne. Where are all those PBers who were assuring me it was a sound and perfectly scrutinzed business plan?

    Its a highly competitive field, but Grayling is surely the worst minister in what is the worst cabinet in history.

    It does say something about the Remain campaign, though, that it was beaten by a team including Grayling, Fox, Leadsom, Davis, Johnson etc.

  • Options
    notme2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Chris said:

    Scott_P said:

    Chris said:

    BUT if both parties want to "unexpire" the arrangements, no doubt they can do so. Why not?

    You can't unexpire an agreement that expired.

    You can sign a new one.
    Yes of course. Technically it would be a new agreement, reinstating the terms of the agreement that had previously been offered.

    I've been as clear as I possibly could about that all along. In every one of my comments I've stressed that the legal technicalities would be different, but that if both parties wished to reinstate the agreement, they could do so.

    I don't wish to be rude, but if the point you're trying to make is that you're too stupid to grasp something that has been put to you over and over again, you've certainly succeeded.
    Once we fall out of the EU's existing free trade agreements via No Deal, I don't think we can simply ressurect them via signing an agreement
    We fall out of the EU's existing free trade agreements deal or no deal.
    And as the Japanese example makes very clear, even our friends are not falling over themselves to replicate what we have/had as EU members.

    Let’s make this absolutely clear. As a member of the EU we have traded with Japan for the last 47 years without a trade deal, and in recent times on WTO agreements. We have only been party to a trade deal for nine days. Yes nine days. But the UK’s failure to replicate such a deal immediately is somehow some major failure.

    PS the first major decision a Japanese manufacturer has made following this agreement is to reconsider its decision to manufacture one of its cars within the EU but instead carry on manufacturing it in Japan and export it free of tariffs.
    Mind you another Japanese firm just recently started mass production of its most popular car in the UK. https://order-order.com/2019/02/06/media-ignore-new-production-worlds-best-selling-car-uk/
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,138
    God he’s useless.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,930

    Rees-Mogg is suggesting that the Irish government covertly sabotaged the Seabourne deal, presumably to embarrass Grayling.

    Evidence, please.
  • Options
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Remainers very upset here today. It's possibly slowly dawning that Brexit is happening, so now their only comfort is telling each other and anyone else who may be listening what a horrendous disaster it will be. Sad.

    It has been hard on remainers. Initially there didn't seem any way that Brexit could be stopped. And yet somehow the ineptness of the leavers keeps raising the chances that the whole process could simply grind to a halt because they don't know what they are doing. The curious thing is this. If I really believed in a project and saw it being handled so badly, I'd be really angry with the people in charge. And yet leavers still seem to be fighting the battle with the people they have already beaten in the referendum.

    For some Leavers, the point is not to win, the point is to wage a culture war. If the EU ceased to exist overnight, they would still complain about it.
    Margaret Thatcher ceased to exist as a political force quite a few years ago - and people still complain about her. (Probably quite rightly) - The EU will leave a legacy that will take decades to cleanse.
    So this is just year 3 (year 6? year X?) of the Eternal European War? Oh...joy. :(
    Will depend on what the EU decide to do. Will it be an acrimonious divorce or will it be a case of 'still good friends'.
    I think whatever the EU does some Leavers will seek out a flaw, magnify it to the size of the Milky Way, then scream about it incessantly until the next one.

    Leavers are incapable of taking responsibility for anything, so will be blaming the EU for everything for many decades to come - many of them from their homes in the EU, of course.

  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,930
    Jennings gone.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Scott_P said:
    Loathsome character Tom Bower. A cheap and second rate biographer.
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    felix said:

    justin124 said:

    Nigelb said:

    justin124 said:

    That is an excellent article - though though I cannot agree with Max Weber's assertion that Britain was ' a working democracy' in the years before January 1919 given that the franchise had been restricted to circa 60% of the male population. That is as ludicrous as describing Apartheid South Africa as a 'working democracy' because elections were held on a regular basis.
    No, it’s not.
    By the standards of the day, Britain was a working democracy, however imperfect. Difficult to assert the same about apartheid South Africa.

    The same could be said of 'the standards of the day' in Apartheid South Africa.
    Nope - S. Africa was out of step with most of the RoW by around 50 years.
    That part of the world which liked to label itself 'democratic'. In reality, it remains untrue of much of the American Deep South today.
  • Options
    Scott_P said:

    Rees-Mogg is suggesting that the Irish government covertly sabotaged the Seabourne deal, presumably to embarrass Grayling.

    Will there ever come a day when are not obliged to hear from that bumbling imbecile?

    Or Grayling?
    Someday - and it cannot come soon enough
  • Options
    Ooops! West Indies now into England's tail.
  • Options
    Roger said:

    Scott_P said:
    Loathsome character Tom Bower. A cheap and second rate biographer.
    Did he write something not too nice about your dear leader
  • Options
    ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    Rees-Mogg is suggesting that the Irish government covertly sabotaged the Seabourne deal, presumably to embarrass Grayling.

    Evidence, please.
    It was reported in the Telegraph. The financial backer of the UK bit was Arklow Shipping, an Irish company that has 50 ferries. Two weeks ago they sent a letter guaranteeing the agreement and asking for secrecy, but withdrew it late last week.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,930

    Rees-Mogg is suggesting that the Irish government covertly sabotaged the Seabourne deal, presumably to embarrass Grayling.

    Evidence, please.
    It was reported in the Telegraph. The financial backer of the UK bit was Arklow Shipping, an Irish company that has 50 ferries. Two weeks ago they sent a letter guaranteeing the agreement and asking for secrecy, but withdrew it late last week.
    Hmm. See what you mean. However, withdrawing it sounds as though they got cold feet about the operators. Or something. Do we know long they'd been involved? I may have missed it, but I' don't think I've heard their name mentioned before.
  • Options
    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    One thing that is obvious is that the rest of the world is talking trade with the UK if they are not in official negotiations yet. They have all displayed their smarts by looking at the EU refusing to talk trade with the UK on a point of principle and thought well will we have that trade surplus that the EU can not be bothered to protect.

    EU businesses must be looking on in disbelief at the actions of the EU.

    Not the one I was talking to earlier this week. They were in disbelief about the actions of the UK government.
  • Options
    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870

    Rees-Mogg is suggesting that the Irish government covertly sabotaged the Seabourne deal, presumably to embarrass Grayling.

    Evidence, please.
    It was reported in the Telegraph. The financial backer of the UK bit was Arklow Shipping, an Irish company that has 50 ferries. Two weeks ago they sent a letter guaranteeing the agreement and asking for secrecy, but withdrew it late last week.
    Fun little coincidence:

    Arklow Shipping are one of the few users of the Manchester Ship Canal.

    The Manchester Ship Canal Company also owns the Bridgewater Canal.

    Chris Grayling's main qualification for transport minister is having written a history of the Bridgewater Canal.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,390
    notme2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Chris said:

    Scott_P said:

    Chris said:

    BUT if both parties want to "unexpire" the arrangements, no doubt they can do so. Why not?

    You can't unexpire an agreement that expired.

    You can sign a new one.
    Yes of course. Technically it would be a new agreement, reinstating the terms of the agreement that had previously been offered.

    I've been as clear as I possibly could about that all along. In every one of my comments I've stressed that the legal technicalities would be different, but that if both parties wished to reinstate the agreement, they could do so.

    I don't wish to be rude, but if the point you're trying to make is that you're too stupid to grasp something that has been put to you over and over again, you've certainly succeeded.
    Once we fall out of the EU's existing free trade agreements via No Deal, I don't think we can simply ressurect them via signing an agreement
    We fall out of the EU's existing free trade agreements deal or no deal.
    And as the Japanese example makes very clear, even our friends are not falling over themselves to replicate what we have/had as EU members.

    Let’s make this absolutely clear. As a member of the EU we have traded with Japan for the last 47 years without a trade deal, and in recent times on WTO agreements. We have only been party to a trade deal for nine days. Yes nine days. But the UK’s failure to replicate such a deal immediately is somehow some major failure.

    PS the first major decision a Japanese manufacturer has made following this agreement is to reconsider its decision to manufacture one of its cars within the EU but instead carry on manufacturing it in Japan and export it free of tariffs.
    Let us make this absolutely clear ...
    You are rebutting an argument I didn’t make.

    Had you bothered to follow the discussion, you realise my comment was in respect of the blithe assumption that the UK would easily be able to replicate existing deals shich it enjoys as part of the EU.

    It’s understandable, I suppose, that you get confused about the argument, as those arguing fior Brexit seem to oscillate between a Panglossian view of our economic future, and keenness for a bit of hardship to toughen up the national psyche...
  • Options
    The Trouble with Trimbles.
  • Options

    rpjs said:



    It's political correctness gone mad. Tusk made the mistake of saying what he really thought about the Bumbling Buccaneers. We all pretend we want politicians to speak their minds. We absolutely hate it when they do.

    You say bumbling but they are close to getting what they sought. And you keep using the word Buccaneers as if it's an insult. It's not.

    A.global Buccaneering Britain has a better future than a sclerotic and parochial Europe.
    It is an insult. A buccaneer was a pirate, a particularly heinous class of criminal that was and is regarded as the common enemy of mankind.
    Pirates have been romanticised since then.

    However actually even then they were privateers more than pirates. Privateers operating with a letter of marque were not criminals.
    "The [Pirate] Code is more what you call guidelines than actual rules!"
This discussion has been closed.