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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TMay’s problem with the Tory polling resurgence is that it takes the edge off threats of PM Corbyn

The most likely outcome from our new MRP constituency model see the Tories gaining just four seats in a snap election: not nearly enough to solve May’s Brexit woesCon: 321 seats (+4 from GE2017)Lab: 250 (-12)SNP: 39 (+4)LD: 16 (+4)Other – 7 (+1)https://t.co/PPl3yGL2Kq pic.twitter.com/vL2fSHyBtz

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TheScreamingEagles

Yah

TheScreamingEagles

Plus we all remember how Mrs May soiled the bed with 25% leads.

RobD

TheScreamingEagles said:

Plus we all remember how Mrs May soiled the bed with 25% leads.

I'm trying to forget

OblitusSumMe

Would the contrary case really help May?

If she was falling behind Labour in the polls there would be increasing pressure for her to stand aside to allow a new leader to pursue a new course.

Richard_Nabavi

FPT:

This is important:

In response to a question from the Conservative pro-European Dominic Grieve, who says article 50 will have to be passed because parliament does not have the time to pass all the legislation, May says normally the Commons would need to study a treaty for 21 days before it can be ratified. But in this case that will not be necessary because MPs will have already debated these issues. This will be reflected in the EU withdrawal agreement bill, she says.

As Paul Waugh has tweeted:

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1095315383295361024

TheScreamingEagles

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Plus we all remember how Mrs May soiled the bed with 25% leads.

I'm trying to forget

I did warn you at the time.

5) Whisper it very carefully, Mrs May might not actually be that popular

First of all there’s the polling that shows her popularity is equally down to her not being Jeremy Corbyn nor would she be losing the majority of the Tory gains from the Lib Dems that her election strategist found, a PM with polling leads of 25% really shouldn’t be doing that.

People compare her to Mrs Thatcher, but what has Mrs May really achieved that is comparable to Mrs Thatcher had prior to her 1983 and 1987 landslides? No war won, no massive reform of the UK, so far only a slogan, ‘Brexit means Brexit.’

Plus Mrs May’s a crap campaigner, no wonder she’s frightened to meet real voters or to debate Corbyn, given her failure to consistently crush him at PMQs. Macavity May hid during the EU referendum, as PM she can’t hide during a general election campaign. Mrs May is a crap campaigner, this is a narrative I and others expect to develop, especially if she refuses to debate Corbyn and the other party leaders.

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/04/23/why-a-1997-style-landslide-or-even-a-1983-style-landslide-might-not-happen-but-maybe-a-2005-style-majority-of-66-will/

Richard_Nabavi

On topic: yeah but the Conservatives' reputation would be utterly wrecked by the reality of a No Deal Brexit, and many of their supporters would be made utterly fed up by a delayed or cancelled Brexit. So the threat of a Corbyn government hasn't in fact receded, it's more likely than ever in those scenarios she's trying to scare* Tory MPs into avoiding.

*By 'scare', I of course mean that she's trying to persuade them to put the country's interests first.

Foxy

FWIW

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1095314075893067776?s=19

OblitusSumMe

Richard_Nabavi said:

FPT:

This is important:

In response to a question from the Conservative pro-European Dominic Grieve, who says article 50 will have to be passed because parliament does not have the time to pass all the legislation, May says normally the Commons would need to study a treaty for 21 days before it can be ratified. But in this case that will not be necessary because MPs will have already debated these issues. This will be reflected in the EU withdrawal agreement bill, she says.

As Paul Waugh has tweeted:

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1095315383295361024

This is absurd.

MPs should decide now whether they will support the deal at the last moment (and do so now, ahead of time), or take matters out of the PMs hands and end this can-kicking.

RobD

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Plus we all remember how Mrs May soiled the bed with 25% leads.

I'm trying to forget

I did warn you at the time.

5) Whisper it very carefully, Mrs May might not actually be that popular

First of all there’s the polling that shows her popularity is equally down to her not being Jeremy Corbyn nor would she be losing the majority of the Tory gains from the Lib Dems that her election strategist found, a PM with polling leads of 25% really shouldn’t be doing that.

People compare her to Mrs Thatcher, but what has Mrs May really achieved that is comparable to Mrs Thatcher had prior to her 1983 and 1987 landslides? No war won, no massive reform of the UK, so far only a slogan, ‘Brexit means Brexit.’

Plus Mrs May’s a crap campaigner, no wonder she’s frightened to meet real voters or to debate Corbyn, given her failure to consistently crush him at PMQs. Macavity May hid during the EU referendum, as PM she can’t hide during a general election campaign. Mrs May is a crap campaigner, this is a narrative I and others expect to develop, especially if she refuses to debate Corbyn and the other party leaders.

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/04/23/why-a-1997-style-landslide-or-even-a-1983-style-landslide-might-not-happen-but-maybe-a-2005-style-majority-of-66-will/

Enough gloating, TSE. It’s unseemly.

Nigel_Foremain

FLT: Mr Foxy said: "Interesting to see the number supporting Leave is dropping alongside Corbyn." Perhaps sanity is returning to the fabled common sense led British Electorate that my dear old Dad believed so much in, RIP.

SquareRoot

Foxy said:

FWIW

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1095314075893067776?s=19

poll tracker=meaningless twaddle

AlastairMeeks

OblitusSumMe said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

FPT:

This is important:

In response to a question from the Conservative pro-European Dominic Grieve, who says article 50 will have to be passed because parliament does not have the time to pass all the legislation, May says normally the Commons would need to study a treaty for 21 days before it can be ratified. But in this case that will not be necessary because MPs will have already debated these issues. This will be reflected in the EU withdrawal agreement bill, she says.

As Paul Waugh has tweeted:

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1095315383295361024

This is absurd.

MPs should decide now whether they will support the deal at the last moment (and do so now, ahead of time), or take matters out of the PMs hands and end this can-kicking.

As I said at the weekend, if not now, when?

_Anazina_

SquareRoot said:

Foxy said:

FWIW

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1095314075893067776?s=19

poll tracker=meaningless twaddle

A sharp analysis that can and should be extended to all midterm polls.

Nigel_Foremain

When are Labour supporters gong to wake up to the reality that if Corbyn cannot be ahead of May under these circumstances he is even more useless than she is by some margin. Any normal opposition leader would expect to be 20 points ahead under these circumstances. I have to conclude that the average Corbyn backer is as thick and deluded as the man himself.

OblitusSumMe

AlastairMeeks said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

FPT:

This is important:

In response to a question from the Conservative pro-European Dominic Grieve, who says article 50 will have to be passed because parliament does not have the time to pass all the legislation, May says normally the Commons would need to study a treaty for 21 days before it can be ratified. But in this case that will not be necessary because MPs will have already debated these issues. This will be reflected in the EU withdrawal agreement bill, she says.

As Paul Waugh has tweeted:

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1095315383295361024

This is absurd.

MPs should decide now whether they will support the deal at the last moment (and do so now, ahead of time), or take matters out of the PMs hands and end this can-kicking.

As I said at the weekend, if not now, when?

And, as every MP should reflect, if not you, who?

Richard_Nabavi

OblitusSumMe said:

This is absurd.

MPs should decide now whether they will support the deal at the last moment (and do so now, ahead of time), or take matters out of the PMs hands and end this can-kicking.

Of course it's absurd. There is absolutely no good reason why the deal shouldn't have been passed in December, allowing time for an orderly exit and obviating the need for lots of businesses to push the panic buttons.

But we are where we, and the PM has to go through this absurd charade, damaging the economy in the process, because MPs can't and never will agree on any alternative to the negotiated deal.

Morris_Dancer

Good aftermoon*, everyone.

Less than a week until testing commences. Barely a month until the first race. I hope the Red Bull's fastest by a mile.

*A typo I spotted, but I quite liked it, so kept it in.

Richard_Nabavi

Mark Carney seems to have become a master of English understatement:

https://twitter.com/FTPressOffice/status/1095319845665673216

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1095322932950286336

Nemtynakht

TheScreamingEagles said:

Plus we all remember how Mrs May soiled the bed with 25% leads.

You’re expecting a plus 20% turnaround next time too? You sound like Jezziah

_Anazina_

Richard_Nabavi said:

OblitusSumMe said:

This is absurd.

MPs should decide now whether they will support the deal at the last moment (and do so now, ahead of time), or take matters out of the PMs hands and end this can-kicking.

Of course it's absurd. There is absolutely no good reason why the deal shouldn't have been passed in December, allowing time for an orderly exit and obviating the need for lots of businesses to push the panic buttons.

But we are where we, and the PM has to go through this absurd charade, damaging the economy in the process, because MPs can't and never will agree on any alternative to the negotiated deal.

Spot on.

SquareRoot

_Anazina_ said:

SquareRoot said:

Foxy said:

FWIW

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1095314075893067776?s=19

poll tracker=meaningless twaddle

A sharp analysis that can and should be extended to all midterm polls.

polls taken at different times using different methodologies cannot just be magically deemed to give the state of play at any given moment.. for that matter neither can any single poll. they are all almost inevitably wrong, esp due to the MOE

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1095325385510793217

TheScreamingEagles

Nemtynakht said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Plus we all remember how Mrs May soiled the bed with 25% leads.

You’re expecting a plus 20% turnaround next time too? You sound like Jezziah

No.

But I wouldn’t be surprised by a smaller turnaround this time, one that puts Corbyn in Downing Street.

Nemtynakht

Nigel_Foremain said:

When are Labour supporters gong to wake up to the reality that if Corbyn cannot be ahead of May under these circumstances he is even more useless than she is by some margin. Any normal opposition leader would expect to be 20 points ahead under these circumstances. I have to conclude that the average Corbyn backer is as thick and deluded as the man himself.

It’s the media’s fault. Once he gets out on the campaign trail he will get the masses to support him

kinabalu

This is great for Labour. The worse that JC does in the polls the more likely it becomes that he gets the only thing that can realistically bring him to power - an early general election.

If he wants to become PM it is essential that he avoids looking like one in waiting. Much of his words and actions make perfect sense when viewed in this light.

Do not underestimate Jeremy Corbyn.

Andrew

Richard_Nabavi said:

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1095315383295361024

Good. No more of MPs hiding from the consequences of their vote.

Vote against, you are specifically voting for a no-deal crash exit.

Andrew

SquareRoot said:

polls taken at different times using different methodologies cannot just be magically deemed to give the state of play at any given moment.. for that matter neither can any single poll. they are all almost inevitably wrong, esp due to the MOE

The last yougov is helpful - 40k sample, 0.5% MoE.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1095326332043644928

Nigel_Foremain

Nemtynakht said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

When are Labour supporters gong to wake up to the reality that if Corbyn cannot be ahead of May under these circumstances he is even more useless than she is by some margin. Any normal opposition leader would expect to be 20 points ahead under these circumstances. I have to conclude that the average Corbyn backer is as thick and deluded as the man himself.

It’s the media’s fault. Once he gets out on the campaign trail he will get the masses to support him

Oh yes, I had forgotten that!

williamglenn

AlastairMeeks said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

FPT:

This is important:

In response to a question from the Conservative pro-European Dominic Grieve, who says article 50 will have to be passed because parliament does not have the time to pass all the legislation, May says normally the Commons would need to study a treaty for 21 days before it can be ratified. But in this case that will not be necessary because MPs will have already debated these issues. This will be reflected in the EU withdrawal agreement bill, she says.

As Paul Waugh has tweeted:

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1095315383295361024

This is absurd.

MPs should decide now whether they will support the deal at the last moment (and do so now, ahead of time), or take matters out of the PMs hands and end this can-kicking.

As I said at the weekend, if not now, when?

If you think someone else will buckle at the last minute (*), there’s no reason to.

* That someone could be the EU, the DUP, the ERG, Labour backbenchers, Theresa May, etc.

Foxy

Nemtynakht said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Plus we all remember how Mrs May soiled the bed with 25% leads.

You’re expecting a plus 20% turnaround next time too? You sound like Jezziah

probably not, but campaigning is both Jezzas biggest strength and Tezzas biggest liability.

Bring it on.

Sunil_Prasannan

Broken, sleazy Labour on the slide...

RobD

Andrew said:

SquareRoot said:

polls taken at different times using different methodologies cannot just be magically deemed to give the state of play at any given moment.. for that matter neither can any single poll. they are all almost inevitably wrong, esp due to the MOE

The last yougov is helpful - 40k sample, 0.5% MoE.

Large sample doesn’t help with systematic errors though.

Foxy

Andrew said:

SquareRoot said:

polls taken at different times using different methodologies cannot just be magically deemed to give the state of play at any given moment.. for that matter neither can any single poll. they are all almost inevitably wrong, esp due to the MOE

The last yougov is helpful - 40k sample, 0.5% MoE.

Isn't the key difference the weighting for likelihood to vote?

While size of poll reduces random errors, it can never compensate for incorrect assumptions on weighting.

As it is, that yougov megapoll has a 4 seat Tory gain. That surely is MOE too?

OblitusSumMe

Morris_Dancer said:

Good aftermoon*, everyone.

Less than a week until testing commences. Barely a month until the first race. I hope the Red Bull's fastest by a mile.

*A typo I spotted, but I quite liked it, so kept it in.

The moon rose at about half-ten today so also astronomically accurate.

Foxy

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Broken, sleazy Labour on the slide...

Surely you mean broken sleazy Brexit on the slide?

https://twitter.com/KantarPublic/status/1095290950992228352?s=19

SouthamObserver

Nigel_Foremain said:

When are Labour supporters gong to wake up to the reality that if Corbyn cannot be ahead of May under these circumstances he is even more useless than she is by some margin. Any normal opposition leader would expect to be 20 points ahead under these circumstances. I have to conclude that the average Corbyn backer is as thick and deluded as the man himself.

The dwindling band of Labour supporters have mostly woken up to it. The problem is that Labour members have not. Until they stop insisting that only an anti-Semitic, pro-Brexit leader can end austerity Labour will gift the Tories power

RobD

Foxy said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Broken, sleazy Labour on the slide...

Surely you mean broken sleazy Brexit on the slide?

https://twitter.com/KantarPublic/status/1095290950992228352?s=19

Remain down 1...

Chris

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1095325385510793217

Is that on the assumption that they're going to be asked to vote on a different Withdrawal Agreement from last time?

FrancisUrquhart

It seems the academic in Liverpool lost his job for the following.

His former employer, the University of Liverpool told the Jewish Chronicle that “Dr. Alex Scott-Samuel is no longer employed by the University.” This is following his appearance on the Richie Allen Show in February 2017, Dr Scott-Samuel was introduced as a senior lecturer at the University of Liverpool.* He told the audience that “The Rothschild family are behind a lot of the neo-liberal influence in the UK and the US. You only have to google them to look at this.”

https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/university-insists-academic-who-promoted-rothschild-conspracies-on-david-icke-1.479941

I am not sure I am particularly comfortable with people being sacked if this is the full extent of what he said.

justin124

Nemtynakht said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Plus we all remember how Mrs May soiled the bed with 25% leads.

You’re expecting a plus 20% turnaround next time too? You sound like Jezziah

I very much doubt that will happen - but could imagine a 10% turnaround. Election campaigns also generally do favour the Opposition.

tottenhamWC

The way Theresa May is managing this process is incredibly damaging (and wholly tone deaf). And the awfulness of Corbyn is almost certainly camouflaging the corrosive nature of this.

She has effectively appointed herself the sole arbiter of understanding what Brexit "means" in practice - and is holding the country ransom to that effect, whatever the consequences.

I am almost beyond the point of where I was before (in the sense of never voting Tory again if they engineer a no deal Brexit). I am thinking that I don't want to vote for clowns almost irrespective now. Clearly I won't vote for Corbyn either. And I suspect I won't be alone.....

Sunil_Prasannan

RobD said:

Andrew said:

SquareRoot said:

polls taken at different times using different methodologies cannot just be magically deemed to give the state of play at any given moment.. for that matter neither can any single poll. they are all almost inevitably wrong, esp due to the MOE

The last yougov is helpful - 40k sample, 0.5% MoE.

Large sample doesn’t help with systematic errors though.

https://www.publiusthegeek.com/2018/07/a-history-of-polling-1948-dewey-defeats.html

RobD

FrancisUrquhart said:

It seems the academic in Liverpool lost his job for the following.

His former employer, the University of Liverpool told the Jewish Chronicle that “Dr. Alex Scott-Samuel is no longer employed by the University.” This is following his appearance on the Richie Allen Show in February 2017, Dr Scott-Samuel was introduced as a senior lecturer at the University of Liverpool.* He told the audience that “The Rothschild family are behind a lot of the neo-liberal influence in the UK and the US. You only have to google them to look at this.”

https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/university-insists-academic-who-promoted-rothschild-conspracies-on-david-icke-1.479941

I am not sure I am particularly comfortable with people being sacked if this is the full extent of what he said.

Is the statement incorrect? I thought they were an influential family.

FrancisUrquhart

RobD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

It seems the academic in Liverpool lost his job for the following.

His former employer, the University of Liverpool told the Jewish Chronicle that “Dr. Alex Scott-Samuel is no longer employed by the University.” This is following his appearance on the Richie Allen Show in February 2017, Dr Scott-Samuel was introduced as a senior lecturer at the University of Liverpool.* He told the audience that “The Rothschild family are behind a lot of the neo-liberal influence in the UK and the US. You only have to google them to look at this.”

https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/university-insists-academic-who-promoted-rothschild-conspracies-on-david-icke-1.479941

I am not sure I am particularly comfortable with people being sacked if this is the full extent of what he said.

Is the statement incorrect? I thought they were an influential family.

I would have to guess it isn't what he said, it is the show he said it on (which has a history of having people push antisemitic conspiracy theories). But that is also troubling, where do we draw the line? Should somebody not go on say Jordon Peterson podcast? Or more controversially say Stefan Molyneux? What about RT? Press TV?

Does going on a persons podcast immediately mean they should be tarred with the same brush and vice versa the host?

There was some stupid non-profit that a few months ago did a crazy "six degrees of Kevin Bacon" type thing that tried to make weird smear that because the likes of Joe Rogan have had people like Milo on, he is some alt-right personality.

Sunil_Prasannan

RobD said:

Andrew said:

SquareRoot said:

polls taken at different times using different methodologies cannot just be magically deemed to give the state of play at any given moment.. for that matter neither can any single poll. they are all almost inevitably wrong, esp due to the MOE

The last yougov is helpful - 40k sample, 0.5% MoE.

Large sample doesn’t help with systematic errors though.

https://www.publiusthegeek.com/2018/06/a-history-of-polling-1936-landon.html

Philip_Thompson

FrancisUrquhart said:

It seems the academic in Liverpool lost his job for the following.

His former employer, the University of Liverpool told the Jewish Chronicle that “Dr. Alex Scott-Samuel is no longer employed by the University.” This is following his appearance on the Richie Allen Show in February 2017, Dr Scott-Samuel was introduced as a senior lecturer at the University of Liverpool.* He told the audience that “The Rothschild family are behind a lot of the neo-liberal influence in the UK and the US. You only have to google them to look at this.”

https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/university-insists-academic-who-promoted-rothschild-conspracies-on-david-icke-1.479941

I am not sure I am particularly comfortable with people being sacked if this is the full extent of what he said.

I'm not sure I am particularly comfortable with lecturers preaching antisemitic slurs about the "Rothschilds"

justin124

Nigel_Foremain said:

When are Labour supporters gong to wake up to the reality that if Corbyn cannot be ahead of May under these circumstances he is even more useless than she is by some margin. Any normal opposition leader would expect to be 20 points ahead under these circumstances. I have to conclude that the average Corbyn backer is as thick and deluded as the man himself.

That really is a non sequitur based on what happened in the 2017 campaign. Brexit has also very largely frozen out the Opposition with little focus on other issues in respect of which the Tories would be likely to be highly vulnerable in an election campaign. Beyond that a sense of gathering crisis is likely to help the incumbent Government in the short-term as happened at the time of the Three Day Week plus a wish to stand up to Johnny Foreigner as Theresa May 'stands up for Britain'. How durable are such sentiments?

Richard_Tyndall

FrancisUrquhart said:

It seems the academic in Liverpool lost his job for the following.

His former employer, the University of Liverpool told the Jewish Chronicle that “Dr. Alex Scott-Samuel is no longer employed by the University.” This is following his appearance on the Richie Allen Show in February 2017, Dr Scott-Samuel was introduced as a senior lecturer at the University of Liverpool.* He told the audience that “The Rothschild family are behind a lot of the neo-liberal influence in the UK and the US. You only have to google them to look at this.”

https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/university-insists-academic-who-promoted-rothschild-conspracies-on-david-icke-1.479941

I am not sure I am particularly comfortable with people being sacked if this is the full extent of what he said.

I would disagree strongly with his views and his politics but to be sacked for them is outrageous. I don't know what, if anything, this says about our universities in general but the University of Liverpool specifically should be ashamed and I hope he takes them to the cleaners.

FrancisUrquhart

Philip_Thompson said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

It seems the academic in Liverpool lost his job for the following.

His former employer, the University of Liverpool told the Jewish Chronicle that “Dr. Alex Scott-Samuel is no longer employed by the University.” This is following his appearance on the Richie Allen Show in February 2017, Dr Scott-Samuel was introduced as a senior lecturer at the University of Liverpool.* He told the audience that “The Rothschild family are behind a lot of the neo-liberal influence in the UK and the US. You only have to google them to look at this.”

https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/university-insists-academic-who-promoted-rothschild-conspracies-on-david-icke-1.479941

I am not sure I am particularly comfortable with people being sacked if this is the full extent of what he said.

I'm not sure I am particularly comfortable with lecturers preaching antisemitic slurs about the "Rothschilds"

I honestly don't know if that is the extent of what he said, in what context etc etc etc.

Philip_Thompson

Foxy said:

Nemtynakht said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Plus we all remember how Mrs May soiled the bed with 25% leads.

You’re expecting a plus 20% turnaround next time too? You sound like Jezziah

probably not, but campaigning is both Jezzas biggest strength and Tezzas biggest liability.

Bring it on.

Precisely!

Except don't bring it on.

Endillion

RobD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

It seems the academic in Liverpool lost his job for the following.

His former employer, the University of Liverpool told the Jewish Chronicle that “Dr. Alex Scott-Samuel is no longer employed by the University.” This is following his appearance on the Richie Allen Show in February 2017, Dr Scott-Samuel was introduced as a senior lecturer at the University of Liverpool.* He told the audience that “The Rothschild family are behind a lot of the neo-liberal influence in the UK and the US. You only have to google them to look at this.”

https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/university-insists-academic-who-promoted-rothschild-conspracies-on-david-icke-1.479941

I am not sure I am particularly comfortable with people being sacked if this is the full extent of what he said.

Is the statement incorrect? I thought they were an influential family.

He continued:

"Ever since they funded the Napoleonic Wars and made enormous profits from them just over 200 years ago they’ve had a quiet vested interest in the pursuit of free trade and neo-liberalism."

Which is broadly true, but unfortunately leans heavily into anti-Semitic conspiracy theories, to the point where there isn't really much doubt about his true motivations for making the comments int he first place.

Richard_Tyndall

Richard_Nabavi said:

Mark Carney seems to have become a master of English understatement:

https://twitter.com/FTPressOffice/status/1095319845665673216

I have a great deal of time for Mr Carney.

Sunil_Prasannan

Philip_Thompson said:

Foxy said:

Nemtynakht said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Plus we all remember how Mrs May soiled the bed with 25% leads.

You’re expecting a plus 20% turnaround next time too? You sound like Jezziah

probably not, but campaigning is both Jezzas biggest strength and Tezzas biggest liability.

Bring it on.

Precisely!

Except don't bring it on.

Bring 'em on! I prefer a straight fight to all this sneaking around!

Nigelb

Another possible centrist Democrat senator candidate for the nomination:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/michael-bennet-could-be-the-answer-to-the-question-every-democrat-is-asking/2019/02/11/4e90832a-2e2d-11e9-86ab-5d02109aeb01_story.html

Seems a bit unlikely, but probably would have a slightly better chance than (say) Hickenlooper.

FrancisUrquhart

Endillion said:

RobD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

It seems the academic in Liverpool lost his job for the following.

His former employer, the University of Liverpool told the Jewish Chronicle that “Dr. Alex Scott-Samuel is no longer employed by the University.” This is following his appearance on the Richie Allen Show in February 2017, Dr Scott-Samuel was introduced as a senior lecturer at the University of Liverpool.* He told the audience that “The Rothschild family are behind a lot of the neo-liberal influence in the UK and the US. You only have to google them to look at this.”

https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/university-insists-academic-who-promoted-rothschild-conspracies-on-david-icke-1.479941

I am not sure I am particularly comfortable with people being sacked if this is the full extent of what he said.

Is the statement incorrect? I thought they were an influential family.

He continued:

"Ever since they funded the Napoleonic Wars and made enormous profits from them just over 200 years ago they’ve had a quiet vested interest in the pursuit of free trade and neo-liberalism."

Which is broadly true, but unfortunately leans heavily into anti-Semitic conspiracy theories, to the point where there isn't really much doubt about his true motivations for making the comments int he first place.

Again, I think I would like to know where the conversation went from there and in what context he made this statement.

Nigelb

And another poll of the early contest states:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/429560-poll-biden-leads-2020-dem-race-followed-by-sanders-and-harris

Chris

Philip_Thompson said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

It seems the academic in Liverpool lost his job for the following.

His former employer, the University of Liverpool told the Jewish Chronicle that “Dr. Alex Scott-Samuel is no longer employed by the University.” This is following his appearance on the Richie Allen Show in February 2017, Dr Scott-Samuel was introduced as a senior lecturer at the University of Liverpool.* He told the audience that “The Rothschild family are behind a lot of the neo-liberal influence in the UK and the US. You only have to google them to look at this.”

https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/university-insists-academic-who-promoted-rothschild-conspracies-on-david-icke-1.479941

I am not sure I am particularly comfortable with people being sacked if this is the full extent of what he said.

I'm not sure I am particularly comfortable with lecturers preaching antisemitic slurs about the "Rothschilds"

"I disagree with what you say, and therefore you should lose your job"?

Sunil_Prasannan

Endillion said:

RobD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

It seems the academic in Liverpool lost his job for the following.

His former employer, the University of Liverpool told the Jewish Chronicle that “Dr. Alex Scott-Samuel is no longer employed by the University.” This is following his appearance on the Richie Allen Show in February 2017, Dr Scott-Samuel was introduced as a senior lecturer at the University of Liverpool.* He told the audience that “The Rothschild family are behind a lot of the neo-liberal influence in the UK and the US. You only have to google them to look at this.”

https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/university-insists-academic-who-promoted-rothschild-conspracies-on-david-icke-1.479941

I am not sure I am particularly comfortable with people being sacked if this is the full extent of what he said.

Is the statement incorrect? I thought they were an influential family.

He continued:

"Ever since they funded the Napoleonic Wars and made enormous profits from them just over 200 years ago they’ve had a quiet vested interest in the pursuit of free trade and neo-liberalism."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Napoleon_and_the_Jews

Historians have disagreed about Napoleon's intentions in these actions, as well as his personal and political feelings about the Jewish community. Some have said he had political reasons but did not have sympathy for the Jews. His actions were generally opposed by the leaders of monarchies in other countries. After his defeat by Great Britain, a counter-revolution swept many of these countries and they restored discriminatory measures against the Jews.

Pulpstar

Andrew said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1095315383295361024

Good. No more of MPs hiding from the consequences of their vote.

Vote against, you are specifically voting for a no-deal crash exit.

Isn't one of the problems we have is that there are plenty of blocs/MPs 'happy enough' with hard Brexit for a whole smorgasbord of reasons

i) ERG - Want a hard hard Brexit
ii) DUP - Hard Brexit is fine, May's deal is not for them.
iii) Corbyn & Labour tribalists - Tories own hard Brexit
iv) The SNP - 2nd ref here we come
v) Kate Hoey
vi) Labour people's voters - "I told you so" card...

Which means Tory remainers might come round, but they might not be enough...

Chris

Endillion said:

RobD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

It seems the academic in Liverpool lost his job for the following.

His former employer, the University of Liverpool told the Jewish Chronicle that “Dr. Alex Scott-Samuel is no longer employed by the University.” This is following his appearance on the Richie Allen Show in February 2017, Dr Scott-Samuel was introduced as a senior lecturer at the University of Liverpool.* He told the audience that “The Rothschild family are behind a lot of the neo-liberal influence in the UK and the US. You only have to google them to look at this.”

https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/university-insists-academic-who-promoted-rothschild-conspracies-on-david-icke-1.479941

I am not sure I am particularly comfortable with people being sacked if this is the full extent of what he said.

Is the statement incorrect? I thought they were an influential family.

He continued:

"Ever since they funded the Napoleonic Wars and made enormous profits from them just over 200 years ago they’ve had a quiet vested interest in the pursuit of free trade and neo-liberalism."

Which is broadly true, but unfortunately leans heavily into anti-Semitic conspiracy theories, to the point where there isn't really much doubt about his true motivations for making the comments int he first place.

You said it was true!

Doesn't that mean you've just leaned into anti-Semitic conspiracy theories yourself?

MarqueeMark

tottenhamWC said:

The way Theresa May is managing this process is incredibly damaging (and wholly tone deaf). And the awfulness of Corbyn is almost certainly camouflaging the corrosive nature of this.

She has effectively appointed herself the sole arbiter of understanding what Brexit "means" in practice - and is holding the country ransom to that effect, whatever the consequences.

I am almost beyond the point of where I was before (in the sense of never voting Tory again if they engineer a no deal Brexit). I am thinking that I don't want to vote for clowns almost irrespective now. Clearly I won't vote for Corbyn either. And I suspect I won't be alone.....

I think it rather more basic. A group tried to wrest control of Brexit off her, using a Parliamentary procedure that bent precedent all out of shape.

This is just a control freak reminding them who is REALLY in control.

Endillion

Chris said:

Endillion said:

RobD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

It seems the academic in Liverpool lost his job for the following.

His former employer, the University of Liverpool told the Jewish Chronicle that “Dr. Alex Scott-Samuel is no longer employed by the University.” This is following his appearance on the Richie Allen Show in February 2017, Dr Scott-Samuel was introduced as a senior lecturer at the University of Liverpool.* He told the audience that “The Rothschild family are behind a lot of the neo-liberal influence in the UK and the US. You only have to google them to look at this.”

https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/university-insists-academic-who-promoted-rothschild-conspracies-on-david-icke-1.479941

I am not sure I am particularly comfortable with people being sacked if this is the full extent of what he said.

Is the statement incorrect? I thought they were an influential family.

He continued:

"Ever since they funded the Napoleonic Wars and made enormous profits from them just over 200 years ago they’ve had a quiet vested interest in the pursuit of free trade and neo-liberalism."

Which is broadly true, but unfortunately leans heavily into anti-Semitic conspiracy theories, to the point where there isn't really much doubt about his true motivations for making the comments int he first place.

You said it was true!

Doesn't that mean you've just leaned into anti-Semitic conspiracy theories yourself?

The statement is technically true, but saying it in most contexts says more about the speaker (and their motivations) than it does anything else.

It's like questioning whether exactly six million people died in the Holocaust. Sure, there's doubt, and the real figure might be lower. But why is it important to debate that? In the same way, why is he so interested in the Rothschilds' (specifically) contribution to current social structures?

Yorkcity

Philip_Thompson said:

Foxy said:

Nemtynakht said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Plus we all remember how Mrs May soiled the bed with 25% leads.

You’re expecting a plus 20% turnaround next time too? You sound like Jezziah

probably not, but campaigning is both Jezzas biggest strength and Tezzas biggest liability.

Bring it on.

Precisely!

Except don't bring it on.

A re-match.
With all the bluster of Tyson Fury.
Just what is needed.

kinabalu

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Broken, sleazy Labour on the slide...

In these polls perhaps, we will see how that develops, but regarding the politics of the current crisis Labour are in dreamland.

Mrs May is clearly going to engineer a last gasp Deal or No Deal decision for MPs.

Labour have made their 'compromise offer' knowing that she cannot and will not go for it. This gives them a solid alibi for No Deal. If she takes us over the cliff there will be little ambiguity as to where the blame lies - the Tories. It could also collapse the government as the Grieve types defect.

If she squeaks the Deal through, fine, because this too could collapse the government courtesy of the DUP.

If she fails to get the deal through but chickens out of No Deal (as she almost certainly will) what then? Revocation? Great, rips the Tories apart, probably collapses the government. Second Referendum? Ditto if it has Remain on it, which it will probably have to in order to get approved.

And if she does what I think her true fallback plan is - calls a 'back me or sack me' snap election - absolutely fantastic. Offer Re-neg + Ref2 in the Labour manifesto and a good chance of sweeping to power.

Yes, Labour are in a fantastic place. About the only thing they could do to pluck defeat from the jaws of victory is give in to the pressure to back a Ref2 now. They need to make sure that the ONLY way a Ref (and thus Remain) can happen is via the election of a Labour government.

OblitusSumMe

tottenhamWC said:

The way Theresa May is managing this process is incredibly damaging (and wholly tone deaf). And the awfulness of Corbyn is almost certainly camouflaging the corrosive nature of this.

She has effectively appointed herself the sole arbiter of understanding what Brexit "means" in practice - and is holding the country ransom to that effect, whatever the consequences.

I am almost beyond the point of where I was before (in the sense of never voting Tory again if they engineer a no deal Brexit). I am thinking that I don't want to vote for clowns almost irrespective now. Clearly I won't vote for Corbyn either. And I suspect I won't be alone.....

That has been my feeling, but when I take some time to look at the detail instead of the way she has handled things, what is at stake now is only the Withdrawal Agreement, none of which is objectionable to me.

The future relationship is still to be determined and it seems clear that it won't be determined by Theresa May.

Chris

Endillion said:

Chris said:

Endillion said:

RobD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

It seems the academic in Liverpool lost his job for the following.

His former employer, the University of Liverpool told the Jewish Chronicle that “Dr. Alex Scott-Samuel is no longer employed by the University.” This is following his appearance on the Richie Allen Show in February 2017, Dr Scott-Samuel was introduced as a senior lecturer at the University of Liverpool.* He told the audience that “The Rothschild family are behind a lot of the neo-liberal influence in the UK and the US. You only have to google them to look at this.”

https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/university-insists-academic-who-promoted-rothschild-conspracies-on-david-icke-1.479941

I am not sure I am particularly comfortable with people being sacked if this is the full extent of what he said.

Is the statement incorrect? I thought they were an influential family.

He continued:

"Ever since they funded the Napoleonic Wars and made enormous profits from them just over 200 years ago they’ve had a quiet vested interest in the pursuit of free trade and neo-liberalism."

Which is broadly true, but unfortunately leans heavily into anti-Semitic conspiracy theories, to the point where there isn't really much doubt about his true motivations for making the comments int he first place.

You said it was true!

Doesn't that mean you've just leaned into anti-Semitic conspiracy theories yourself?

The statement is technically true, but saying it in most contexts says more about the speaker (and their motivations) than it does anything else.

It's like questioning whether exactly six million people died in the Holocaust. Sure, there's doubt, and the real figure might be lower. But why is it important to debate that? In the same way, why is he so interested in the Rothschilds' (specifically) contribution to current social structures?

Surely the question is to what extent people should be punished for expressing legal but unpopular opinions?

[Edit: Or rather, apparently, for being suspected of holding such opinions.]

Philip_Thompson

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

It seems the academic in Liverpool lost his job for the following.

His former employer, the University of Liverpool told the Jewish Chronicle that “Dr. Alex Scott-Samuel is no longer employed by the University.” This is following his appearance on the Richie Allen Show in February 2017, Dr Scott-Samuel was introduced as a senior lecturer at the University of Liverpool.* He told the audience that “The Rothschild family are behind a lot of the neo-liberal influence in the UK and the US. You only have to google them to look at this.”

https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/university-insists-academic-who-promoted-rothschild-conspracies-on-david-icke-1.479941

I am not sure I am particularly comfortable with people being sacked if this is the full extent of what he said.

I'm not sure I am particularly comfortable with lecturers preaching antisemitic slurs about the "Rothschilds"

"I disagree with what you say, and therefore you should lose your job"?

In general no, absolutely not.

If what you say is your job? That's different.

If a BBC New host goes on an antisemitic rant live on the 6:00 News then would you say "well it's only something they're saying"?

edmundintokyo

tottenhamWC said:

The way Theresa May is managing this process is incredibly damaging (and wholly tone deaf). And the awfulness of Corbyn is almost certainly camouflaging the corrosive nature of this.

She has effectively appointed herself the sole arbiter of understanding what Brexit "means" in practice - and is holding the country ransom to that effect, whatever the consequences.

I am almost beyond the point of where I was before (in the sense of never voting Tory again if they engineer a no deal Brexit). I am thinking that I don't want to vote for clowns almost irrespective now. Clearly I won't vote for Corbyn either. And I suspect I won't be alone.....

So it's interesting that we've been seeing quite a few people here with this sentiment, but Tory support in the polling is stubbornly high. I wonder if this is a high-information vs low-information difference, or whether despite the apparent stability in the topline figures there's actually a lot of churn with competence-motivated Tories deserting them while (some group not on pb much) comes in to replace them.

MikeL

How about a Lab leadership challenge?

It's often forgotten that Owen Smith got 40% vs Corbyn. With Corbyn now infuriating Remainers + all the scope for attacking him re anti-Semitism is there not at least a decent chance that a much stronger candidate than Owen Smith might get the additional 10% needed to win?

Surely worth a shot.

Philip_Thompson

MikeL said:

How about a Lab leadership challenge?

It's often forgotten that Owen Smith got 40% vs Corbyn. With Corbyn now infuriating Remainers + all the scope for attacking him re anti-Semitism is there not at least a decent chance that a much stronger candidate than Owen Smith might get the additional 10% needed to win?

Surely worth a shot.

Plus that was with Corbyn running against "Owen who?"

Chris

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

It seems the academic in Liverpool lost his job for the following.

His former employer, the University of Liverpool told the Jewish Chronicle that “Dr. Alex Scott-Samuel is no longer employed by the University.” This is following his appearance on the Richie Allen Show in February 2017, Dr Scott-Samuel was introduced as a senior lecturer at the University of Liverpool.* He told the audience that “The Rothschild family are behind a lot of the neo-liberal influence in the UK and the US. You only have to google them to look at this.”

https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/university-insists-academic-who-promoted-rothschild-conspracies-on-david-icke-1.479941

I am not sure I am particularly comfortable with people being sacked if this is the full extent of what he said.

I'm not sure I am particularly comfortable with lecturers preaching antisemitic slurs about the "Rothschilds"

"I disagree with what you say, and therefore you should lose your job"?

In general no, absolutely not.

If what you say is your job? That's different.

If a BBC New host goes on an antisemitic rant live on the 6:00 News then would you say "well it's only something they're saying"?

OK, if what you're really saying is you think he was in breach of his contract of employment. But that's different from making people feel uncomfortable.

Richard_Tyndall

edmundintokyo said:

tottenhamWC said:

The way Theresa May is managing this process is incredibly damaging (and wholly tone deaf). And the awfulness of Corbyn is almost certainly camouflaging the corrosive nature of this.

She has effectively appointed herself the sole arbiter of understanding what Brexit "means" in practice - and is holding the country ransom to that effect, whatever the consequences.

I am almost beyond the point of where I was before (in the sense of never voting Tory again if they engineer a no deal Brexit). I am thinking that I don't want to vote for clowns almost irrespective now. Clearly I won't vote for Corbyn either. And I suspect I won't be alone.....

So it's interesting that we've been seeing quite a few people here with this sentiment, but Tory support in the polling is stubbornly high. I wonder if this is a high-information vs low-information difference, or whether despite the apparent stability in the topline figures there's actually a lot of churn with competence-motivated Tories deserting them while (some group not on pb much) comes in to replace them.

I think Tottenham is absolutely right that it is only the prospect of a Corbyn Government that is staving of a Tory collapse. I think if almost anyone else was leading Labour they would have a 10 or 15 point lead.

TheWhiteRabbit

Richard_Tyndall said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

It seems the academic in Liverpool lost his job for the following.

His former employer, the University of Liverpool told the Jewish Chronicle that “Dr. Alex Scott-Samuel is no longer employed by the University.” This is following his appearance on the Richie Allen Show in February 2017, Dr Scott-Samuel was introduced as a senior lecturer at the University of Liverpool.* He told the audience that “The Rothschild family are behind a lot of the neo-liberal influence in the UK and the US. You only have to google them to look at this.”

https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/university-insists-academic-who-promoted-rothschild-conspracies-on-david-icke-1.479941

I am not sure I am particularly comfortable with people being sacked if this is the full extent of what he said.

I would disagree strongly with his views and his politics but to be sacked for them is outrageous. I don't know what, if anything, this says about our universities in general but the University of Liverpool specifically should be ashamed and I hope he takes them to the cleaners.

Richard - people who express views like that very rarely do so once.

OblitusSumMe

MikeL said:

How about a Lab leadership challenge?

It's often forgotten that Owen Smith got 40% vs Corbyn. With Corbyn now infuriating Remainers + all the scope for attacking him re anti-Semitism is there not at least a decent chance that a much stronger candidate than Owen Smith might get the additional 10% needed to win?

Surely worth a shot.

It's not a stationary target. I think Corbyn lost the vote against Smith if restricted to the 2015 electorate, but won because of the new members he had attracted.

Some of those who voted against him in 2016 will have left the party, likewise those most disappointed by his subsequent failings.

Besides there's not enough time now before Brexit day.

justin124

MikeL said:

How about a Lab leadership challenge?

It's often forgotten that Owen Smith got 40% vs Corbyn. With Corbyn now infuriating Remainers + all the scope for attacking him re anti-Semitism is there not at least a decent chance that a much stronger candidate than Owen Smith might get the additional 10% needed to win?

Surely worth a shot.

But that was when it was pretty well universally expected that Corbyn would lead Labour to a very heavy defeat. I was part of that concensus but 2017 proved me wrong.

eed

Your analysis: grasping at straws. The obvious is that the electorate will not countenance an anti-Semitic Jurassic Marxist who is as thick as a plank.

justin124

eed said:

Your analysis: grasping at straws. The obvious is that the electorate will not countenance an anti-Semitic Jurassic Marxist who is as thick as a plank.

Are you trying to pretend that 2017 never happened?

Big_G_NorthWales

kinabalu said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Broken, sleazy Labour on the slide...

In these polls perhaps, we will see how that develops, but regarding the politics of the current crisis Labour are in dreamland.

Mrs May is clearly going to engineer a last gasp Deal or No Deal decision for MPs.

Labour have made their 'compromise offer' knowing that she cannot and will not go for it. This gives them a solid alibi for No Deal. If she takes us over the cliff there will be little ambiguity as to where the blame lies - the Tories. It could also collapse the government as the Grieve types defect.

If she squeaks the Deal through, fine, because this too could collapse the government courtesy of the DUP.

If she fails to get the deal through but chickens out of No Deal (as she almost certainly will) what then? Revocation? Great, rips the Tories apart, probably collapses the government. Second Referendum? Ditto if it has Remain on it, which it will probably have to in order to get approved.

And if she does what I think her true fallback plan is - calls a 'back me or sack me' snap election - absolutely fantastic. Offer Re-neg + Ref2 in the Labour manifesto and a good chance of sweeping to power.

Yes, Labour are in a fantastic place. About the only thing they could do to pluck defeat from the jaws of victory is give in to the pressure to back a Ref2 now. They need to make sure that the ONLY way a Ref (and thus Remain) can happen is via the election of a Labour government.

You have to be a truely loyal party supporter to deem labour are in a 'fantastic place' in view of all the evidence including sustained polling collapse with 3 of the last 4 polls on 34%, a leader who is blanking a large part of his mps and members desire for a second referendum, supports Maduro against most everybody apart from Russia and China, and is deeply implicated in his party's antisemitism

But loyalty is to be admired to be fair, no matter the cause

NickPalmer

FrancisUrquhart said:

I would have to guess it isn't what he said, it is the show he said it on (which has a history of having people push antisemitic conspiracy theories). But that is also troubling, where do we draw the line? Should somebody not go on say Jordon Peterson podcast? Or more controversially say Stefan Molyneux? What about RT? Press TV?

Does going on a persons podcast immediately mean they should be tarred with the same brush and vice versa the host?

There was some stupid non-profit that a few months ago did a crazy "six degrees of Kevin Bacon" type thing that tried to make weird smear that because the likes of Joe Rogan have had people like Milo on, he is some alt-right personality.

Yes, in general I'm uneasy about "X gave a talk to Y who also gave airtime to evil Z" line of attack, which is similar to the "X was photographed at a meeting with Y who on another occasion said...". If you're interested in politics the default response if you're invited to say what you think is to accept the invitation. It's why I gave an interview on Press TV (arguing for economic sanctions on Iran at a time when they were worried about military attack) - I was perfectly clear that they are a government mouthpiece, but felt that if they were willing to listen to what I said then why not (especially as it was critical of Iranian policy)?

That said, I agree with Endillion that people who keep banging on about the Rothschilds make me uneasy too, in exactly the same way as people who go on about fundamentalist Muslims - I don't necessarily disagree with the comments (and in particular it is ridiculous to say that Americans criticising AIPAC make them anti-semitic), but any kind of obsession suggests a deeper motivation.

bigjohnowls

Big_G_NorthWales said:

kinabalu said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Broken, sleazy Labour on the slide...

In these polls perhaps, we will see how that develops, but regarding the politics of the current crisis Labour are in dreamland.

Mrs May is clearly going to engineer a last gasp Deal or No Deal decision for MPs.

Labour have made their 'compromise offer' knowing that she cannot and will not go for it. This gives them a solid alibi for No Deal. If she takes us over the cliff there will be little ambiguity as to where the blame lies - the Tories. It could also collapse the government as the Grieve types defect.

If she squeaks the Deal through, fine, because this too could collapse the government courtesy of the DUP.

If she fails to get the deal through but chickens out of No Deal (as she almost certainly will) what then? Revocation? Great, rips the Tories apart, probably collapses the government. Second Referendum? Ditto if it has Remain on it, which it will probably have to in order to get approved.

And if she does what I think her true fallback plan is - calls a 'back me or sack me' snap election - absolutely fantastic. Offer Re-neg + Ref2 in the Labour manifesto and a good chance of sweeping to power.

Yes, Labour are in a fantastic place. About the only thing they could do to pluck defeat from the jaws of victory is give in to the pressure to back a Ref2 now. They need to make sure that the ONLY way a Ref (and thus Remain) can happen is via the election of a Labour government.

You have to be a truely loyal party supporter to deem labour are in a 'fantastic place' in view of all the evidence including sustained polling collapse with 3 of the last 4 polls on 34%, a leader who is blanking a large part of his mps and members desire for a second referendum, supports Maduro against most everybody apart from Russia and China, and is deeply implicated in his party's antisemitism

But loyalty is to be admired to be fair, no matter the cause

Are you not equally loyal to TM

logical_song

RobD said:

Foxy said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Broken, sleazy Labour on the slide...

Surely you mean broken sleazy Brexit on the slide?

https://twitter.com/KantarPublic/status/1095290950992228352?s=19

Remain down 1...

... but still 8 points ahead.

Chris

I see Betfair's "Brexit by 29 March" market has now nosed its way about a 30% implied probability.

Big_G_NorthWales

justin124 said:

MikeL said:

How about a Lab leadership challenge?

It's often forgotten that Owen Smith got 40% vs Corbyn. With Corbyn now infuriating Remainers + all the scope for attacking him re anti-Semitism is there not at least a decent chance that a much stronger candidate than Owen Smith might get the additional 10% needed to win?

Surely worth a shot.

But that was when it was pretty well universally expected that Corbyn would lead Labour to a very heavy defeat. I was part of that concensus but 2017 proved me wrong.

That was then, this is now and a very different political climate with labour and Corbyn in freefall

Big_G_NorthWales

Just put cricket on

West Indies 14 - 3

justin124

Big_G_NorthWales said:

kinabalu said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Broken, sleazy Labour on the slide...

In these polls perhaps, we will see how that develops, but regarding the politics of the current crisis Labour are in dreamland.

Mrs May is clearly going to engineer a last gasp Deal or No Deal decision for MPs.

Labour have made their 'compromise offer' knowing that she cannot and will not go for it. This gives them a solid alibi for No Deal. If she takes us over the cliff there will be little ambiguity as to where the blame lies - the Tories. It could also collapse the government as the Grieve types defect.

If she squeaks the Deal through, fine, because this too could collapse the government courtesy of the DUP.

If she fails to get the deal through but chickens out of No Deal (as she almost certainly will) what then? Revocation? Great, rips the Tories apart, probably collapses the government. Second Referendum? Ditto if it has Remain on it, which it will probably have to in order to get approved.

And if she does what I think her true fallback plan is - calls a 'back me or sack me' snap election - absolutely fantastic. Offer Re-neg + Ref2 in the Labour manifesto and a good chance of sweeping to power.

Yes, Labour are in a fantastic place. About the only thing they could do to pluck defeat from the jaws of victory is give in to the pressure to back a Ref2 now. They need to make sure that the ONLY way a Ref (and thus Remain) can happen is via the election of a Labour government.

You have to be a truely loyal party supporter to deem labour are in a 'fantastic place' in view of all the evidence including sustained polling collapse with 3 of the last 4 polls on 34%, a leader who is blanking a large part of his mps and members desire for a second referendum, supports Maduro against most everybody apart from Russia and China, and is deeply implicated in his party's antisemitism

But loyalty is to be admired to be fair, no matter the cause

But it is all relative is it not? I am no Corbynite but am quite clear that his polling position is nothing like as dire as in the February - April 2017 period. May,however, is so much weaker and vulnerable.

edmundintokyo

Richard_Tyndall said:

edmundintokyo said:

tottenhamWC said:

The way Theresa May is managing this process is incredibly damaging (and wholly tone deaf). And the awfulness of Corbyn is almost certainly camouflaging the corrosive nature of this.

She has effectively appointed herself the sole arbiter of understanding what Brexit "means" in practice - and is holding the country ransom to that effect, whatever the consequences.

I am almost beyond the point of where I was before (in the sense of never voting Tory again if they engineer a no deal Brexit). I am thinking that I don't want to vote for clowns almost irrespective now. Clearly I won't vote for Corbyn either. And I suspect I won't be alone.....

So it's interesting that we've been seeing quite a few people here with this sentiment, but Tory support in the polling is stubbornly high. I wonder if this is a high-information vs low-information difference, or whether despite the apparent stability in the topline figures there's actually a lot of churn with competence-motivated Tories deserting them while (some group not on pb much) comes in to replace them.

I think Tottenham is absolutely right that it is only the prospect of a Corbyn Government that is staving of a Tory collapse. I think if almost anyone else was leading Labour they would have a 10 or 15 point lead.

That sounds plausible to me but the other dog that hasn't barked is that I don't think we're seeing polling saying, "If Labour was led by [Cooper / Starmer / Benn] they would be x% ahead". I mean, I haven't seen polling to the contrary, but if the support was there you'd think somebody would pay for the polling to prove it.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Chris, leaving on time with no deal was 5 (5.25 with boost) on Ladbrokes a couple of months ago. Was 2.75 last time I checked.

algarkirk

I don't know if this helps, but perhaps I am one of a group of people who could vote and very occasionally have voted Labour but would not and could not support the party under any circumstances if either we had the tiniest belief that members of the party give comfort to anti-Semites, or that there was any chance we were electing a government which practiced socialism until running out of other people's money. Both these are absolutely live issues.

Having said that it is also true that if I lived in the constituencies of say Yvette Cooper, Jess Philips, Luciana Berger or Hilary Benn I would also find it impossible not to vote for them. The clash between the awfulness of parties and the excellence of individuals gives rise to real dilemmas.

justin124

Big_G_NorthWales said:

justin124 said:

MikeL said:

How about a Lab leadership challenge?

It's often forgotten that Owen Smith got 40% vs Corbyn. With Corbyn now infuriating Remainers + all the scope for attacking him re anti-Semitism is there not at least a decent chance that a much stronger candidate than Owen Smith might get the additional 10% needed to win?

Surely worth a shot.

But that was when it was pretty well universally expected that Corbyn would lead Labour to a very heavy defeat. I was part of that concensus but 2017 proved me wrong.

That was then, this is now and a very different political climate with labour and Corbyn in freefall

Labour is much stronger now in polling terms than was the case then. May and the Tories are weaker. It may be a different climate - but the change is to his advantage!

paulyork64

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1095325385510793217

so does that mean exiting in march with a deal is possible? I'd written it off as not enough time for bills to pass etc. might need to cover some positions with 9/1 leave on time with a deal.

Big_G_NorthWales

bigjohnowls said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

kinabalu said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Broken, sleazy Labour on the slide...

In these polls perhaps, we will see how that develops, but regarding the politics of the current crisis Labour are in dreamland.

Mrs May is clearly going to engineer a last gasp Deal or No Deal decision for MPs.

Labour have made their 'compromise offer' knowing that she cannot and will not go for it. This gives them a solid alibi for No Deal. If she takes us over the cliff there will be little ambiguity as to where the blame lies - the Tories. It could also collapse the government as the Grieve types defect.

If she squeaks the Deal through, fine, because this too could collapse the government courtesy of the DUP.

If she fails to get the deal through but chickens out of No Deal (as she almost certainly will) what then? Revocation? Great, rips the Tories apart, probably collapses the government. Second Referendum? Ditto if it has Remain on it, which it will probably have to in order to get approved.

And if she does what I think her true fallback plan is - calls a 'back me or sack me' snap election - absolutely fantastic. Offer Re-neg + Ref2 in the Labour manifesto and a good chance of sweeping to power.

Yes, Labour are in a fantastic place. About the only thing they could do to pluck defeat from the jaws of victory is give in to the pressure to back a Ref2 now. They need to make sure that the ONLY way a Ref (and thus Remain) can happen is via the election of a Labour government.

You have to be a truely loyal party supporter to deem labour are in a 'fantastic place' in view of all the evidence including sustained polling collapse with 3 of the last 4 polls on 34%, a leader who is blanking a large part of his mps and members desire for a second referendum, supports Maduro against most everybody apart from Russia and China, and is deeply implicated in his party's antisemitism

But loyalty is to be admired to be fair, no matter the cause

Are you not equally loyal to TM

Indeed and I am complimenting Kinabalu on his loyalty

Alanbrooke

MikeL said:

How about a Lab leadership challenge?

It's often forgotten that Owen Smith got 40% vs Corbyn. With Corbyn now infuriating Remainers + all the scope for attacking him re anti-Semitism is there not at least a decent chance that a much stronger candidate than Owen Smith might get the additional 10% needed to win?

Surely worth a shot.

he will campaign on bread and butter issues. If the other parties have no response to it he will gain votes

Harris_Tweed

edmundintokyo said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

edmundintokyo said:

tottenhamWC said:

The way Theresa May is managing this process is incredibly damaging (and wholly tone deaf). And the awfulness of Corbyn is almost certainly camouflaging the corrosive nature of this.

She has effectively appointed herself the sole arbiter of understanding what Brexit "means" in practice - and is holding the country ransom to that effect, whatever the consequences.

I am almost beyond the point of where I was before (in the sense of never voting Tory again if they engineer a no deal Brexit). I am thinking that I don't want to vote for clowns almost irrespective now. Clearly I won't vote for Corbyn either. And I suspect I won't be alone.....

So it's interesting that we've been seeing quite a few people here with this sentiment, but Tory support in the polling is stubbornly high. I wonder if this is a high-information vs low-information difference, or whether despite the apparent stability in the topline figures there's actually a lot of churn with competence-motivated Tories deserting them while (some group not on pb much) comes in to replace them.

I think Tottenham is absolutely right that it is only the prospect of a Corbyn Government that is staving of a Tory collapse. I think if almost anyone else was leading Labour they would have a 10 or 15 point lead.

That sounds plausible to me but the other dog that hasn't barked is that I don't think we're seeing polling saying, "If Labour was led by [Cooper / Starmer / Benn] they would be x% ahead". I mean, I haven't seen polling to the contrary, but if the support was there you'd think somebody would pay for the polling to prove it.

I'm not convinced by polling on hypotheticals. Most people wouldn't know how they'd feel about Lab run by Yvette Cooper till they saw it.

Actually.. I think that applies to all polling at the moment. Seeing as no-one has a scooby what the country is going to look like in six weeks' time, any voting intention or leader rating poll is likely to be rendered out of date very quickly when people's ill-informed reckons about Brexit (on both side) are compared with facts.

OblitusSumMe

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Just put cricket on

West Indies 14 - 3

Anderson determined not to be overshadowed by Wood.

Chris

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Chris, leaving on time with no deal was 5 (5.25 with boost) on Ladbrokes a couple of months ago. Was 2.75 last time I checked.

I think that's in line with Betfair's "No Deal on Time" market. But the one I quoted was "Brexit on Time", which is apparently deemed by the market to be 5% more likely.

Richard_Nabavi

edmundintokyo said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

edmundintokyo said:

tottenhamWC said:

The way Theresa May is managing this process is incredibly damaging (and wholly tone deaf). And the awfulness of Corbyn is almost certainly camouflaging the corrosive nature of this.

She has effectively appointed herself the sole arbiter of understanding what Brexit "means" in practice - and is holding the country ransom to that effect, whatever the consequences.

I am almost beyond the point of where I was before (in the sense of never voting Tory again if they engineer a no deal Brexit). I am thinking that I don't want to vote for clowns almost irrespective now. Clearly I won't vote for Corbyn either. And I suspect I won't be alone.....

So it's interesting that we've been seeing quite a few people here with this sentiment, but Tory support in the polling is stubbornly high. I wonder if this is a high-information vs low-information difference, or whether despite the apparent stability in the topline figures there's actually a lot of churn with competence-motivated Tories deserting them while (some group not on pb much) comes in to replace them.

I think Tottenham is absolutely right that it is only the prospect of a Corbyn Government that is staving of a Tory collapse. I think if almost anyone else was leading Labour they would have a 10 or 15 point lead.

That sounds plausible to me but the other dog that hasn't barked is that I don't think we're seeing polling saying, "If Labour was led by [Cooper / Starmer / Benn] they would be x% ahead". I mean, I haven't seen polling to the contrary, but if the support was there you'd think somebody would pay for the polling to prove it.

You're sounding too much like @HYUFD! The fatal flaw in polling about hypothetical leaders is that the electoral appeal of a party is based on a complex combination of the personal image of the leader, the team he or she appoints, whether or not he or she can inspire unity in the party, the general political positioning, the specific policies, the organisational skills of the core team, and the sheer political effectiveness in putting across the whole platform and stuffing the other side. All of that depends crucially on the party leader, but the hypothetical polling only really measures the first of those, and that unreliably.

Richard_Tyndall

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

It seems the academic in Liverpool lost his job for the following.

His former employer, the University of Liverpool told the Jewish Chronicle that “Dr. Alex Scott-Samuel is no longer employed by the University.” This is following his appearance on the Richie Allen Show in February 2017, Dr Scott-Samuel was introduced as a senior lecturer at the University of Liverpool.* He told the audience that “The Rothschild family are behind a lot of the neo-liberal influence in the UK and the US. You only have to google them to look at this.”

https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/university-insists-academic-who-promoted-rothschild-conspracies-on-david-icke-1.479941

I am not sure I am particularly comfortable with people being sacked if this is the full extent of what he said.

I would disagree strongly with his views and his politics but to be sacked for them is outrageous. I don't know what, if anything, this says about our universities in general but the University of Liverpool specifically should be ashamed and I hope he takes them to the cleaners.

Richard - people who express views like that very rarely do so once.

But such views, even though thoroughly distasteful, should not result in him losing his job.