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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Newport West – the first electoral test for the TIGers?

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited February 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Newport West – the first electoral test for the TIGers?

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  • They should avoid any trap here. they're not a national party...yet.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited February 2019
    Who will their candidate be? Without a formal party structure, who chooses who the candidate will be?

    Maybe they should try to raise the money to hold an open primary to choose a candidate for the by-election? (Edit: This idea brought to you thanks to Chris Leslie's comments about it not being democratic for political party members to choose a leader - this implies that a larger electorate should choose the leader/candidates, and consequently a system of primaries)
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    I think it depends on who the Labour candidate is.

    A centralist is going to be hard to fight, a Momentum backed candidate with an embarrassing twitter feed on the other hand
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081
    Fourth like TIG
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    1983 Newport West was won by Conservatives.
  • eek said:

    I think it depends on who the Labour candidate is.

    A centralist is going to be hard to fight, a Momentum backed candidate with an embarrassing twitter feed on the other hand

    Lives locally, trade unionist, can't see any evidence of Corbynism but not sure on that.
    https://www.southwalesargus.co.uk/news/17387647.ruth-jones-picked-as-labours-mp-candidate-for-the-third-time/
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    They should avoid any trap here. they're not a national party...yet.

    Unless of course, a senior figure absent from politics a while decided they wanted to throw their hat in the ring to help get the party going....

  • eek said:

    I think it depends on who the Labour candidate is.

    A centralist is going to be hard to fight, a Momentum backed candidate with an embarrassing twitter feed on the other hand

    Ed Balls
  • dr_spyn said:

    1983 Newport West was won by Conservatives.

    Indeed, with 38% of the vote compared to the 39.3% they received in 2017.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    They won’t stand.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Interestingly, it appears that there's no local elections scheduled for May 2nd in Wales.

    So do Labour go for that date and risk their defeat being the story of the night, or go earlier (April 11th?) and hope no-one notices among all the Brexit news?
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    edited February 2019
    Can't see it happening. Newport West will return a Labour MP and TIG isn't even a party yet. Unless the polls are showing 40% for them real soon now (which they won't), there's no upside for them in standing.

    But I wouldn't be surprised if they commission some private polling in the constituency just to test the water.

    Maybe they could recruit Rhys aka P Xain from Goldie Lookin Chain as their candidate... he's ex-Labour. https://www.southwalesargus.co.uk/news/14705799.goldie-lookin-chains-rhys-hutchings-quits-newports-labour-group/

    FPT:

    For the Lib Dems, as so often, May's locals are going to be crucial. If they do well (and as they'll be fighting seats last fought on General Election day 2015, they could hardly do worse), it'll put them in a much better position to negotiate with TIG.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279

    They should avoid any trap here. they're not a national party...yet.

    Unless of course, a senior figure absent from politics a while decided they wanted to throw their hat in the ring to help get the party going....

    Ed Balls.
  • FPT

    A comment made by TM today at PMQ's seems to have been missed in all the noise but she clearly said it is a deal or no brexit.

    I would not be at all surprised if the deal falls she will surprise everyone and call a referendum and in one act, defenestrate ERG, and check mate Corbyn

    The political climate is highly charged but I do believe these last few days has seen the end of Corbyn becoming PM and if so, he has all been worthwhile
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    If May is forced into an Article 50 extension, TIG will be the only major force going into the European elections with a coherent policy on Brexit. They could win and Labour and the Tories would get squeezed out on the other side by UKIP/The Brexit Party.

    Both main parties seriously in the danger zone now.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623
    In a way any date beyond the end of March is frankly another political universe right at this moment.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    The Tiggers are going to have to stand in the Newport by election. If they don't someone else will stand in their place.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    edited February 2019
    I don't think Tigger is a serious name for a party! It sounds like something out of whinny the poo.

    Something more like the British European Peoples party would be better!

    I am more with the independents anyway than the Tories at the moment. I definitely don't like Corbyn. I can see NO Deal Brexit happening under the Tories and the damage it will do to the economy gathering pace.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    dr_spyn said:

    They should avoid any trap here. they're not a national party...yet.

    Unless of course, a senior figure absent from politics a while decided they wanted to throw their hat in the ring to help get the party going....

    Ed Balls.
    Why would Ed Balls want to return to politics especially given the pain such a move would cause his wife...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081
    edited February 2019
    Scott_P said:
    Both parties reacted in a way that validated the arguments of those departing them, because they don't know how else to behave.

    ...But the truth is that we live in remarkable and fast changing times. The two main parties are both zombified and poisoned. The moment is primed for something to truly shake up the way this country does politics. This could be it.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    I don't think Tiger is a serious name for a party! It sounds like something out of whinny the poo.

    Something more like the British European Peoples party would be better!

    I am more with the independents anyway than the Tories at the moment. I definitely don't like Corbyn. I can see NO Deal Brexit happening under the Tories and the damage it will do to the economy gathering pace.

    Like I said in a previous thread, they should just get the inevitable merger with the Lib Dems over and done with and call the new party the British Internationalist New Liberal Independent Democrats, the BINLIDs.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    dr_spyn said:

    They should avoid any trap here. they're not a national party...yet.

    Unless of course, a senior figure absent from politics a while decided they wanted to throw their hat in the ring to help get the party going....

    Ed Balls.
    David Miliband
  • Mr. P, it's a dumb argument. If your perspective is validated by someone you dislike being angry, or someone you like approving, then you've contracted out your critical faculties to your opponents and those you've placed on a pedestal.

    Hitler was nice to his secretaries. And a vegetarian. That doesn't mean those are bad things just because a bad man approved of them. Stalin helped Kaganovic[sp] improve his literacy. Doesn't mean reading and writing fluently is evil.

    The new party may well be a good thing, but The Bad People Being Angry isn't an argument in favour of that.

    Far better to discuss policies and ideas than focusing on personal responses.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,395
    So you are a 'centrist' Labour MP. You were thinking of jumping ship and becoming a Tigger. You now see that a full-on Tory in the shape of Soubry has joined them. You decide to stay Labour.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    Scott_P said:
    Who is angry? Name names....
  • The Tiggers are going to have to stand in the Newport by election. If they don't someone else will stand in their place.

    Yup, just stand as an Independent and say you'll look to join them.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Scott_P said:
    Is Ian Dunt never not angry? Most Tories seem pretty happy today. I guess they're not the right people.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    edited February 2019

    I don't think Tigger is a serious name for a party! It sounds like something out of whinny the poo.

    Something more like the British European Peoples party would be better!

    I am more with the independents anyway than the Tories at the moment. I definitely don't like Corbyn. I can see NO Deal Brexit happening under the Tories and the damage it will do to the economy gathering pace.

    Their campaign slogan would be "The wonderful thing about Tiggers, is that Tiggers are wonderful things."

    Come to think of it, it's just as well they don't call themselves New Independent Group.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038

    Can't see it happening. Newport West will return a Labour MP and TIG isn't even a party yet. Unless the polls are showing 40% for them real soon now (which they won't), there's no upside for them in standing.

    But I wouldn't be surprised if they commission some private polling in the constituency just to test the water.

    Maybe they could recruit Rhys aka P Xain from Goldie Lookin Chain as their candidate... he's ex-Labour. https://www.southwalesargus.co.uk/news/14705799.goldie-lookin-chains-rhys-hutchings-quits-newports-labour-group/

    Newport West is a marginal. If the by-election was tomorrow, the Tories would probably win it.

    I think you and Freggles are right - the Tiggers won't stand. They don't have a party, and I think they'll take setting one up quite slowly. But it depends on the polls and the pressure from the public.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Is grey/charcoal/elephant's breath actually the Tiggers' official colour (as claimed by Wikipedia) or is it a placeholder? Millennial pink is available, might suit them.

    https://goo.gl/images/Z6jDST
  • Mr. F, as I said yesterday, they're flouncy, bouncy, pouncy, fun fun fun fun fun.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    They should avoid any trap here. they're not a national party...yet.

    Agreed. They should keep away, perhaps back the Labour candidate if s/he is a pro-European moderate.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    Sean_F said:

    I don't think Tigger is a serious name for a party! It sounds like something out of whinny the poo.

    Something more like the British European Peoples party would be better!

    I am more with the independents anyway than the Tories at the moment. I definitely don't like Corbyn. I can see NO Deal Brexit happening under the Tories and the damage it will do to the economy gathering pace.

    Their campaign slogan would be "The wonderful thing about Tiggers, is that Tiggers are wonderful things."

    Come to think of it, it's just as well they don't call themselves New Independent Group.
    Even that is better than the current Conservative position of lets wreck the economy together by executing No Deal Brexit!
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662
    _Anazina_ said:

    Is grey/charcoal/elephant's breath actually the Tiggers' official colour (as claimed by Wikipedia) or is it a placeholder? Millennial pink is available, might suit them.

    https://goo.gl/images/Z6jDST

    Surely they would go for a tinge of some sort?
  • Brom said:

    Scott_P said:
    Is Ian Dunt never not angry? Most Tories seem pretty happy today. I guess they're not the right people.
    I am content with these developments. In some circumstances I could support TIGs but while brexit is the main cause of the conservative defections, the full on attack on Corbyn, his anti semitism and his hard left inner circle, is likely to damage labour and especially his group far more
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    Sean_F said:

    I don't think Tigger is a serious name for a party! It sounds like something out of whinny the poo.

    Something more like the British European Peoples party would be better!

    I am more with the independents anyway than the Tories at the moment. I definitely don't like Corbyn. I can see NO Deal Brexit happening under the Tories and the damage it will do to the economy gathering pace.

    Their campaign slogan would be "The wonderful thing about Tiggers, is that Tiggers are wonderful things."

    Come to think of it, it's just as well they don't call themselves New Independent Group.
    Until after the next election, when Dr Sarah Wollaston is singing

    "But the most wonderful thing about Tiggers
    Is I'm the only one...."

  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038

    The Tiggers are going to have to stand in the Newport by election. If they don't someone else will stand in their place.

    Yup, just stand as an Independent and say you'll look to join them.
    Ha. In fact we might end up with half a dozen "Independent" candidates. So it looks like the Tiggers will eventually have to choose a proper name.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038

    I don't think Tigger is a serious name for a party! It sounds like something out of whinny the poo.

    No s**t
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    I don't think Tigger is a serious name for a party! It sounds like something out of whinny the poo.

    Something more like the British European Peoples party would be better!

    I am more with the independents anyway than the Tories at the moment. I definitely don't like Corbyn. I can see NO Deal Brexit happening under the Tories and the damage it will do to the economy gathering pace.

    Well it's not their real name, just a nickname I gave them on Monday morning, which caught on.

    And remember, Tiggers bounce!
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    IF the answer is Ed Balls, its always the wrong question.. wasn't he the one who invented or at least subscribed to the footling neoclassical endogenous growth theory?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    _Anazina_ said:

    Is grey/charcoal/elephant's breath actually the Tiggers' official colour (as claimed by Wikipedia) or is it a placeholder? Millennial pink is available, might suit them.

    https://goo.gl/images/Z6jDST

    It should be black and orange stripes.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited February 2019

    FPT

    A comment made by TM today at PMQ's seems to have been missed in all the noise but she clearly said it is a deal or no brexit.

    I would not be at all surprised if the deal falls she will surprise everyone and call a referendum and in one act, defenestrate ERG, and check mate Corbyn

    The political climate is highly charged but I do believe these last few days has seen the end of Corbyn becoming PM and if so, he has all been worthwhile

    Can you point me to where May says that. I'm looking in the Hansard for today's PMQs and the nearest I can find is in reply to a question from Stephen Doughty near the beginning:

    "First of all, the hon. Gentleman knows there are two ways in which it is possible to ensure that we do not see no deal. One is to stay in the European Union, which is not what the referendum result said, and the other is to agree a deal. What I am working on at the moment is taking the view of this House of Commons about the concerns on the backstop in the deal and working with Brussels to resolve that issue, such that this House will be able to agree a deal."

    This is in the context of the question of how to avoid a no deal, where she later challenges Corbyn to say which of the two options is his policy. But she also says later that no deal is made more likely by Labour's opposition to the deal, so I don't think she said what you think she said.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    _Anazina_ said:

    Is grey/charcoal/elephant's breath actually the Tiggers' official colour (as claimed by Wikipedia) or is it a placeholder? Millennial pink is available, might suit them.

    https://goo.gl/images/Z6jDST

    Surely, orange and black stripes.....?
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Brom said:

    Scott_P said:
    Is Ian Dunt never not angry? Most Tories seem pretty happy today. I guess they're not the right people.

    Dunno, you have been a proper mardy bum today, which gives us all great hope.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787

    _Anazina_ said:

    Is grey/charcoal/elephant's breath actually the Tiggers' official colour (as claimed by Wikipedia) or is it a placeholder? Millennial pink is available, might suit them.

    https://goo.gl/images/Z6jDST

    Surely, orange and black stripes.....?
    The new party political broadcast looks grrrreat. "Unleaded Politics"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=umEkJxFsn58
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414

    _Anazina_ said:

    Is grey/charcoal/elephant's breath actually the Tiggers' official colour (as claimed by Wikipedia) or is it a placeholder? Millennial pink is available, might suit them.

    https://goo.gl/images/Z6jDST

    Surely, orange and black stripes.....?
    Siberian tiggers would be white and black wouldn't they? So grey isn't so far off.
  • FPT

    A comment made by TM today at PMQ's seems to have been missed in all the noise but she clearly said it is a deal or no brexit.

    I would not be at all surprised if the deal falls she will surprise everyone and call a referendum and in one act, defenestrate ERG, and check mate Corbyn

    The political climate is highly charged but I do believe these last few days has seen the end of Corbyn becoming PM and if so, he has all been worthwhile

    Can you point me to where May says that. I'm looking in the Hansard for today's PMQs and the nearest I can find is in reply to a question from Stephen Doughty near the beginning:

    "First of all, the hon. Gentleman knows there are two ways in which it is possible to ensure that we do not see no deal. One is to stay in the European Union, which is not what the referendum result said, and the other is to agree a deal. What I am working on at the moment is taking the view of this House of Commons about the concerns on the backstop in the deal and working with Brussels to resolve that issue, such that this House will be able to agree a deal."

    This is in the context of the question of how to avoid a no deal, where she later challenges Corbyn to say which of the two options is his policy. But she also says later that no deal is made more likely by Labour's opposition to the deal, so I don't think she said what you think she said.
    Yes but she did say to avoid a no deal it is the deal or remain.

    It is the first time I have heard her actually say an option is to stay in the European Union
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    _Anazina_ said:

    They should avoid any trap here. they're not a national party...yet.

    Agreed. They should keep away, perhaps back the Labour candidate if s/he is a pro-European moderate.
    As pointed out by @tissueprice below, she is Ruth Jones (not the one from Gavin and Stacey). Trade Unionist and candidate for Monmouth in 2015 and 17, so pre and post Corbyn.
    She also has the benefit of having been in place since January.
    Given that, a speedy dropping of the writ might be in order.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The Alliance got a surprisingly high 24% in Newport West in 1983. There haven't been any boundary changes since then.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newport_West_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_1980s
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    _Anazina_ said:

    Is grey/charcoal/elephant's breath actually the Tiggers' official colour (as claimed by Wikipedia) or is it a placeholder? Millennial pink is available, might suit them.

    https://goo.gl/images/Z6jDST

    Surely, orange and black stripes.....?
    I thought of that but the media infographics guys would baulk at their having stripes.

    Available colours:

    Pink
    Grey
    Black
    Brown


  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,395

    Brom said:

    Scott_P said:
    Is Ian Dunt never not angry? Most Tories seem pretty happy today. I guess they're not the right people.
    I am content with these developments. In some circumstances I could support TIGs but while brexit is the main cause of the conservative defections, the full on attack on Corbyn, his anti semitism and his hard left inner circle, is likely to damage labour and especially his group far more
    I had you down a "PB Tory most likely to join the Tiggers".
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    _Anazina_ said:

    I don't think Tigger is a serious name for a party! It sounds like something out of whinny the poo.

    Something more like the British European Peoples party would be better!

    I am more with the independents anyway than the Tories at the moment. I definitely don't like Corbyn. I can see NO Deal Brexit happening under the Tories and the damage it will do to the economy gathering pace.

    Well it's not their real name, just a nickname I gave them on Monday morning, which caught on.

    And remember, Tiggers bounce!
    They may get themselves a name, but still be known by everyone as "the Tiggers".

    This may be instructive about your Tigger - from Wiki:

    Tigger "is very confident and has quite an ego, he often thinks of himself as being handsome, and some of his other comments suggest he has a high opinion of himself. Tigger is always filled with great energy and optimism, and though always well-meaning, he can also be mischievous, and his actions have sometimes led to chaos and trouble for himself and his friends. Also, he often undertakes tasks with gusto, only to later realize they were not as easy as he had originally imagined."

    More prophetic than you knew?
  • Mr. Rex, pretty sure they still have some orange, just less than other subspecies.

    Although you do get some tigers that are just black and white. Not sure if that's a rare mutation, as per black panthers.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    Brom said:

    Scott_P said:
    Is Ian Dunt never not angry? Most Tories seem pretty happy today. I guess they're not the right people.
    I am content with these developments. In some circumstances I could support TIGs but while brexit is the main cause of the conservative defections, the full on attack on Corbyn, his anti semitism and his hard left inner circle, is likely to damage labour and especially his group far more
    I had you down a "PB Tory most likely to join the Tiggers".
    TSE, surely?
  • Brom said:

    Scott_P said:
    Is Ian Dunt never not angry? Most Tories seem pretty happy today. I guess they're not the right people.
    I am content with these developments. In some circumstances I could support TIGs but while brexit is the main cause of the conservative defections, the full on attack on Corbyn, his anti semitism and his hard left inner circle, is likely to damage labour and especially his group far more
    I had you down a "PB Tory most likely to join the Tiggers".
    Not yet
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    dixiedean said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    They should avoid any trap here. they're not a national party...yet.

    Agreed. They should keep away, perhaps back the Labour candidate if s/he is a pro-European moderate.
    As pointed out by @tissueprice below, she is Ruth Jones (not the one from Gavin and Stacey). Trade Unionist and candidate for Monmouth in 2015 and 17, so pre and post Corbyn.
    She also has the benefit of having been in place since January.
    Given that, a speedy dropping of the writ might be in order.
    Smae day as the local elections?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    If TIG does stand could Con snatch this on a split Lab vote?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/20/britons-may-need-52-visa-to-visit-mainland-europe-after-brexit

    If Spain is ready to block UK visa-less access to Schengen over Gibraltar, what's their price for agreeing to an extension of A50 going to be? It seems to me that an extension to A50 is going to be essential to have enough Parliamentary time to legislate for either of May's WA or a no-deal exit. I have a feeling Remain/Revoke may just have become the only possible end-game. ¡Gracias señores!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    _Anazina_ said:

    Is grey/charcoal/elephant's breath actually the Tiggers' official colour (as claimed by Wikipedia) or is it a placeholder? Millennial pink is available, might suit them.

    https://goo.gl/images/Z6jDST

    Surely, orange and black stripes.....?
    The new party political broadcast looks grrrreat. "Unleaded Politics"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=umEkJxFsn58
    That rather horribly suggests Tony will be their face....

    Grrrrreat!
  • GIN1138 said:

    If TIG does stand could Con snatch this on a split Lab vote?

    Or could TIG win
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870

    Brom said:

    Scott_P said:
    Is Ian Dunt never not angry? Most Tories seem pretty happy today. I guess they're not the right people.
    I am content with these developments. In some circumstances I could support TIGs but while brexit is the main cause of the conservative defections, the full on attack on Corbyn, his anti semitism and his hard left inner circle, is likely to damage labour and especially his group far more
    I had you down a "PB Tory most likely to join the Tiggers".
    TSE, surely?
    I think TSE is awaiting instructions from his Guiding Spirit at the Evening Standard.
  • F1: Kvyat and Raikkonen topping the time sheets.

    I am not persuaded by this.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,342

    dr_spyn said:

    They should avoid any trap here. they're not a national party...yet.

    Unless of course, a senior figure absent from politics a while decided they wanted to throw their hat in the ring to help get the party going....

    Ed Balls.
    David Miliband
    TIG are going to need a lot of luck and a lucky wind behind them. In the conventional sense of building a successful new party their chances are close to zero. Only if other events conspire with them favourably can their (noble and decent) stand change things for the good of them personally. A greater chance is that events, while ending the TIGs themselves politically, will enable others in different parties to take up a sort of mantle from them. Ask the gang of four, or in a different context, John Hume or David Trimble.

  • A cricketing golden rule might soon be validated again - you drop Chris Gayle, you lose the ODI
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited February 2019

    F1: Kvyat and Raikkonen topping the time sheets.

    I am not persuaded by this.

    Ignore time sheets in testing. Remember the cars aren't scrutineered and can do all sorts of funny stuff with tyres, fuel, engines and other car setup.

    What we do know is that Williams are late to the party, Renault need to fix a dodgy rear wing and that most cars are pretty reliable.
  • All three when asked whether they would re-join the conservative party unequivocably said no

    I assume then, that the constituency chairs will be selecting the conservative candidates for these seats fairly quickly
  • Brom said:

    Scott_P said:
    Is Ian Dunt never not angry? Most Tories seem pretty happy today. I guess they're not the right people.
    I am content with these developments. In some circumstances I could support TIGs but while brexit is the main cause of the conservative defections, the full on attack on Corbyn, his anti semitism and his hard left inner circle, is likely to damage labour and especially his group far more
    I had you down a "PB Tory most likely to join the Tiggers".
    TSE, surely?
    I think TSE is awaiting instructions from his Guiding Spirit at the Evening Standard.
    Dave and Ken Clarke are my guiding spirits as well.

    If a majority of those three are happy in the Tory party then so am I.

    Plus I’m prepared to fight the good fight and slay the ERG dragon.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    _Anazina_ said:

    Brom said:

    Scott_P said:
    Is Ian Dunt never not angry? Most Tories seem pretty happy today. I guess they're not the right people.

    Dunno, you have been a proper mardy bum today, which gives us all great hope.
    You must have missed the opinion polls while out for lunch in Moscow :)
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    edited February 2019

    GIN1138 said:

    If TIG does stand could Con snatch this on a split Lab vote?

    Or could TIG win
    Anything's possible... But somehow it's hard for me to see a metropolitan multi-millionaire luvvie party like TIG doing well enough in an area like Newport to win a FPTP by election.

    Now if we can get a by in metropolitan London borough or a university city TIG might get the win there...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835

    dixiedean said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    They should avoid any trap here. they're not a national party...yet.

    Agreed. They should keep away, perhaps back the Labour candidate if s/he is a pro-European moderate.
    As pointed out by @tissueprice below, she is Ruth Jones (not the one from Gavin and Stacey). Trade Unionist and candidate for Monmouth in 2015 and 17, so pre and post Corbyn.
    She also has the benefit of having been in place since January.
    Given that, a speedy dropping of the writ might be in order.
    Smae day as the local elections?
    There are no local elections in Newport, so tough call. Do you go the same day, lose, and have that as the lead story? Or go earlier, lose, and have the narrative badly against you?
    And what do Tiggers do? Stand, lose with all the above results? To my mind they'd be better off backing one of the candidates coupon fashion.
  • DonTsInferno_DonTsInferno_ Posts: 108
    edited February 2019
    One thing that’s handy for the TIG in the short term is that the political media consider themselves moderates, so happily describe the new group in the same way. The fact that they’re actually Elitist’s might hit home in a by election.
  • Also I’m far too much of an economic right winger/fiscal conservative for other parties.

    I get tumescent at the prospect of privatisation.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,395

    Brom said:

    Scott_P said:
    Is Ian Dunt never not angry? Most Tories seem pretty happy today. I guess they're not the right people.
    I am content with these developments. In some circumstances I could support TIGs but while brexit is the main cause of the conservative defections, the full on attack on Corbyn, his anti semitism and his hard left inner circle, is likely to damage labour and especially his group far more
    I had you down a "PB Tory most likely to join the Tiggers".
    TSE, surely?
    No way - he campaigned for Andrea Jenkyns!
  • The TIGers aren't even eligible to stand yet, are they? They are not yet a registered political party and are, for now, a group of (to some extent) like-minded independents.

    Their other problem is the SDP had some "names" outside Parliament to stand, and it's not yet clear who those are for the TIGers (Goldie Lookin' Chain are from Newport - has anyone checked out their position on the issues?)

    I agree that they do need to meet an electoral test in order not to fizzle, but query whether they will in fact be ready for Newport - because I'd drop the writ pretty sharpish if I were Labour.
  • FPT

    A comment made by TM today at PMQ's seems to have been missed in all the noise but she clearly said it is a deal or no brexit.

    I would not be at all surprised if the deal falls she will surprise everyone and call a referendum and in one act, defenestrate ERG, and check mate Corbyn

    The political climate is highly charged but I do believe these last few days has seen the end of Corbyn becoming PM and if so, he has all been worthwhile

    Can you point me to where May says that. I'm looking in the Hansard for today's PMQs and the nearest I can find is in reply to a question from Stephen Doughty near the beginning:

    "First of all, the hon. Gentleman knows there are two ways in which it is possible to ensure that we do not see no deal. One is to stay in the European Union, which is not what the referendum result said, and the other is to agree a deal. What I am working on at the moment is taking the view of this House of Commons about the concerns on the backstop in the deal and working with Brussels to resolve that issue, such that this House will be able to agree a deal."

    This is in the context of the question of how to avoid a no deal, where she later challenges Corbyn to say which of the two options is his policy. But she also says later that no deal is made more likely by Labour's opposition to the deal, so I don't think she said what you think she said.
    Yes but she did say to avoid a no deal it is the deal or remain.

    It is the first time I have heard her actually say an option is to stay in the European Union
    Right, but she's been very clear that her policy is to leave the EU on March 29th. She'd prefer to do so with a deal, but she's never said she won't leave without one if MPs continue to refuse to vote for a deal - and she still hasn't. She's used no Brexit as an alternative before.
  • Called it last night.

    Shamima Begum will not be allowed here, says Bangladesh.

    Minister of foreign affairs insists 19-year-old does not have dual citizenship


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/feb/20/rights-of-shamima-begums-son-not-affected-says-javid?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,395
    Following Labour's selection of a Momentumite, the Tiggers should put up a high-profile local candidate for Newcastle super-mayor. So Ant or Dec?
  • Scott_P said:
    Who is angry? Name names....
    The ususal supects.

    Owen Jones
    Aaron Bastaini et al...
  • Good job England bat deep....going to need it!

  • Their other problem is the SDP had some "names" outside Parliament to stand, and it's not yet clear who those are for the TIGers (Goldie Lookin' Chain are from Newport - has anyone checked out their position on the issues?)

    I beleive their issues are 'guns don't kill people, rappers do'.

    Which, I think we can all get behind.
  • _Anazina_ said:

    Is grey/charcoal/elephant's breath actually the Tiggers' official colour (as claimed by Wikipedia) or is it a placeholder? Millennial pink is available, might suit them.

    https://goo.gl/images/Z6jDST

    Maybe it should be described as Eeyore grey.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    Following Labour's selection of a Momentumite, the Tiggers should put up a high-profile local candidate for Newcastle super-mayor. So Ant or Dec?

    Newcastle Half Mayor you mean? He only gets to rule over half the city. Perhaps Ant could get this, and Dec, Gateshead?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Following Labour's selection of a Momentumite, the Tiggers should put up a high-profile local candidate for Newcastle super-mayor. So Ant or Dec?

    Alan Shearer?
  • Mr. Slackbladder, much is made of that, but I wonder if a lack of 'names' matters now the same way it did then. There are fewer 'names' generally in politics, and we're at an interesting moment in political history, and the rise of the internet and social media has altered the way people and politics interact.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    I'm with the they won't and shouldn't stand.

    Plenty of time to do all that they're not even a political party yet.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    The SDP defectors made a serious miscalculation back in 1981 by failing to resign their seats to force by elections at a time the new party enjoyed great momentum and was surging in the polls. They also failed to contest the 1981 Local Elections. It is likely that most of the defectors would have retained their seats and been much better placed to win again in 1983. A late defector - Bruce Douglas-Mann - insisted on resubmitting himself to his electors in Mitcham & Morden, but his campaign was effectively torpedoed by the Falklands Conflict in May 1982. Had it not been for that sudden crisis, he almost certainly would have won.
    Success in such by elections would also boost the party's claim for reasonable campaign coverage by the Broadcasters - and potential inclusion in Debates etc.However, the original 7 Labour MPs who defected on Monday appeared to indicate they had no intention of recontesting their seats next time.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,342

    FPT

    A comment made by TM today at PMQ's seems to have been missed in all the noise but she clearly said it is a deal or no brexit.

    I would not be at all surprised if the deal falls she will surprise everyone and call a referendum and in one act, defenestrate ERG, and check mate Corbyn

    The political climate is highly charged but I do believe these last few days has seen the end of Corbyn becoming PM and if so, he has all been worthwhile

    Can you point me to where May says that. I'm looking in the Hansard for today's PMQs and the nearest I can find is in reply to a question from Stephen Doughty near the beginning:

    "First of all, the hon. Gentleman knows there are two ways in which it is possible to ensure that we do not see no deal. One is to stay in the European Union, which is not what the referendum result said, and the other is to agree a deal. What I am working on at the moment is taking the view of this House of Commons about the concerns on the backstop in the deal and working with Brussels to resolve that issue, such that this House will be able to agree a deal."

    This is in the context of the question of how to avoid a no deal, where she later challenges Corbyn to say which of the two options is his policy. But she also says later that no deal is made more likely by Labour's opposition to the deal, so I don't think she said what you think she said.
    Yes but she did say to avoid a no deal it is the deal or remain.

    It is the first time I have heard her actually say an option is to stay in the European Union
    Right, but she's been very clear that her policy is to leave the EU on March 29th. She'd prefer to do so with a deal, but she's never said she won't leave without one if MPs continue to refuse to vote for a deal - and she still hasn't. She's used no Brexit as an alternative before.
    I don't think we'll ever know what plan B is because TMs deal will go through. It goes through partly because of the risk of 'no deal'. If I am wrong - usually am - we won't know what plan B is until after the 59th minute of the 11th hour, at which point TM will tell us. No-one will know till then.

  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    GIN1138 said:

    If TIG does stand could Con snatch this on a split Lab vote?

    A clean skin centre party allowing labour voters unhappy with Corbyn to protest
  • If there’s one home nation that boils my piss it is Wales.

    Years of abuse from the fans of a country that has never won the Webb Ellis trophy has worn me down.

    They used to get all sensitive when we sang ‘Land not quite of my fathers’ during the Graham Henry era.
  • Emmanuel Macron is under renewed pressure after a senate committee recommended his former security aide Alexandre Benalla should be investigated for perjury and accused the French president’s office of “serious failings”
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081

    Brom said:

    Scott_P said:
    Is Ian Dunt never not angry? Most Tories seem pretty happy today. I guess they're not the right people.
    I am content with these developments. In some circumstances I could support TIGs but while brexit is the main cause of the conservative defections, the full on attack on Corbyn, his anti semitism and his hard left inner circle, is likely to damage labour and especially his group far more
    I had you down a "PB Tory most likely to join the Tiggers".
    Me too. If they're doing what he likes, why won't he sign up?
  • Emmanuel Macron is under renewed pressure after a senate committee recommended his former security aide Alexandre Benalla should be investigated for perjury and accused the French president’s office of “serious failings”

    Well he’s French, they all have serious failings.
  • Following Labour's selection of a Momentumite, the Tiggers should put up a high-profile local candidate for Newcastle super-mayor. So Ant or Dec?

    Mike Ashley.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Right, but she's been very clear that her policy is to leave the EU on March 29th. She'd prefer to do so with a deal, but she's never said she won't leave without one if MPs continue to refuse to vote for a deal - and she still hasn't. She's used no Brexit as an alternative before.

    It's the first time I can remember her saying explicitly revoke Article 50
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    justin124 said:

    However, the original 7 Labour MPs who defected on Monday appeared to indicate they had no intention of recontesting their seats next time.

    I have seen that referenced, but not actually heard anyone say it. Got a citation?

    It makes no sense.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081
    Barry Gardiner furious about Derek Hatton’s readmission to Labour. Confirms he's made a formal complaint to the general secretary and says it was "appalling" that the news broke on the day the seven MPs left.
This discussion has been closed.