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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » William Hill make it odds-on that none of the original LAB and
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » William Hill make it odds-on that none of the original LAB and CON TIGers will hold their seats
The basic bet is whether any of the founding 11 TIGers are going to be returned as MPs at the next general election.
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The truth of every single tigger so far is they know their political career is already at the end, doesn’t extend beyond the next election, so it is actually easy to do what they are doing. Everyone who is not a tigger still believes in their career beyond the next election, more greasy pole for them, and that their party can still be pulled back to centre if they stay in it. That is the clear and truthful definition of what is going on.
All the hot air on this seems to me to be based on what happened to SDP under FPTP.
We live in a volatile age.
The conventional wisdom has been wrong repeatedly in last few years.
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/at5f34/just_got_out_of_a_lengthy_qa_by_vince_cable_with/
The are wanting to preserve the establishment in the face of Leavers seeking to change it.
My guess is if they poll 10%+ nationally they hold at least one seat, but that's quite a big requirement. Just because the SDP surged in the polls and held on to much of it doesn't mean the TIGgers will.
I'm a bit bearish on Chuka's chances actually. Stretham has lots of Europhile voters who dislike Corbyn's stance on Brexit, but it also has lots of Corbynites voters who really like Corbyn otherwise (many of them are in both categories). I'm not that confident the former will outweigh the latter. And there's shedloads of Labour activists available nearby.
Telegraph
Other than opposing Brexit by all means possible what do TIG actually believe in? They appear to have a single policy which may be irrelevant in as little as 5 weeks time. By comparison the SDP was far more coherent.
Maybe I'm wrong but I expect that TIG are going to start falling out as soon as the get asked some difficult questions about something other than Brexit.
Not worried. Not worried one bit...
May is still running down the clock.
https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/1098605538630422530
https://twitter.com/ashcowburn/status/1098224835656892416?s=21
And that’s with two former Tories.
Yeh, but, look over there, between the trees, in the mist, I am sure I see unicorns...
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6731231/Anti-Semitism-row-University-Essex-students-vote-AGAINST-starting-Jewish-Society.html
Read about the lecturer - sounds like a winner
https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1098581256718163974
Corbyn is definitely Mr Inertia because he wants to make sure Brexit happens before he becomes PM. (I know, wishful thinking on his part, but there you go.)
So it's up to Tory and Labour rebels to stop No Deal. They're determined to stop it, but May has outmanoeuvred them so far (She and the Tories will probably pay for this in various ways later, but she's so fixed on the single target that she's blind to the collateral damage.) and left them confused and divided. It's hard to see the mechanism by which they stop it now. They have two options: work to get May's agreement passed, but that seems unlikely if the ERG and Corbyn won't support it, or revolt. I assume the revolt will happen next Wednesday, but what the outcome of it will be, I can't even imagine. It's really fascinating drama.
In 1987 Ilford North and Ilford South were both Tory seats.
In 1992 Ilford North had a Tory majority of 9,051 and Gapes won Ilford South by 402 votes, a difference of just over 9,000 votes.
By 2017 Ilford North has a Labour majority of 9,639, Ilford South a huge Labour majority of 31,647, a difference of 22,000 votes.
Gapes has made it one of the safest Labour seats in the country.
Regardless what people with prof in front their name may tell you about fault lines of British politics changing because of brexit, they aren’t and never will. It’s economics. On this side is this view, on that side that view.
One fine example is ERG pin up and rider with the hunt Kate Hoey, can never sit with and side with Tories on economic politics. Another fine example, the destruction of the Libdems in 2015, built themselves over 30 years as being this economics, then sat with and implemented that economics, so they were destroyed whilst the Tories actually gained.
Tigs meet FPTP tigs lose. HY tried to argue against this by using Macron as example, but France electoral system has different DNA. The UK electoral system does not have to alter much to give tigs, kippers, greens fair do’s and ensure votes for them are not wasted, like now straight into dustbin, but to become PM under FPTP need to be leader of a party competive in enough constituency’s to win enough to win an election.
This is the future. Democracy by twitter poll.
LibDems used to be the close challenger - they were within 5k in 2010. Their same candidate has plugged away as they have gone from 35% to 10% to 13%. Totnes town itself is very Green and has had a Green councillor. But their vote dropped more than 60%, as it peeled off to Labour.
Labour will be fired up, thinking the Tory vote will split drastically, between those who love her and those who very much do not, giving them a chance to come though the middle. That is probably simplistic - my two nearest neighbours are Labour members, but have told me they would vote for Wollaston if she was not a Tory. I doubt they are alone.
Also worth noting that her personal vote probably helped move the constituency into Remain - an obvious standout result for Remain in the region. She is a significant figure in local politics.
Chris Leslie: antisemitism in Labour is a disgrace
Andy MacDonald: come on Chris, we have been taking it seriously, the Chakrabarti report...
Chris Leslie: Baroness Chakrabarti?
https://twitter.com/bbcquestiontime/status/1098726075675430912
Or is this a massive depth charge under Labour's direction?
Wales: PC
England: TIG