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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New Opinium poll has LAB moving from level-pegging to 8% behind in just a week

The first of what could number of polls tonight is from Opinium for the Observer and sees the Tories take an 8% lead up from level-pegging a week ago. That’s quite a movement.

Read the full story here

kyf_100

Splitters!

AndyJS

Hello 1983.

MrX

How many seats will TIG actually contest? Not enough to capture 6%, so where will those votes actually go?

I'd treat this poll with scepticism.

RobD

A surprise, to be sure, but a welcome one.

Casino_Royale

It won’t last if Brexit is BINO’ed or cancelled.

Much of that Tory vote is solidly pro Leave.

RobD

Casino_Royale said:

It won’t last if Brexit is BINO’ed or cancelled.

Much of that Tory vote is solidly pro Leave.

Right. It's critical for May that the deal goes through and leaving occurs on schedule.

ralphmalph

Is this why TIG have not formed a party? As long as polls like this they can make the argument of get rid of Corbyn and we will rejoin and then Labour have a chance of winning again. The withdrawal method applied to politics.

TGOHF

No surprise to see the Cons more popular now that Sipsmith Soubry, the Lib Dem and the leftie doctor are out of the party.

ralphmalph

TGOHF said:

No surprise to see the Cons more popular now that Sipsmith Soubry, the Lib Dem and the leftie doctor are out of the party.

I was thinking the same. Voters more positive as Tory extremists leave party.

TheScreamingEagles

Casino_Royale said:

It won’t last if Brexit is BINO’ed or cancelled.

Much of that Tory vote is solidly pro Leave.

This is also the paradox, the Tory lead won't last with sustained No Deal.

notme2

Andrew said:

Baxter on that: Con354, Lab218, LD6. Tiggies 5!

And she still wouldn’t be able to get the WA through parliament...

Y0kel

Venezuela is in its test of strength stage. There is a 50-50 chance that there will be a serious loss of life.

YBarddCwsc

ralphmalph said:

Is this why TIG have not formed a party? As long as polls like this they can make the argument of get rid of Corbyn and we will rejoin and then Labour have a chance of winning again. The withdrawal method applied to politics.

I think that is right. The Labour TIGgers are hoping to rejoin. That is why there is no TIG party.

The 3 Tory TIGgers have been suckered.

Casino_Royale

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

It won’t last if Brexit is BINO’ed or cancelled.

Much of that Tory vote is solidly pro Leave.

This is also the paradox, the Tory lead won't last with sustained No Deal.

Indeed.

All the rules go out the window this year, I think.

MarqueeMark

That UKIP 7% is still highly suspect. Hard to think much of that is going towards Corbyn when they don't have a candidate.

NickPalmer

I'd treat all polls with caution at present - after all, last week the Independents were supposedly on 14%. Obviously a bad week for Labour, but lasting effect hard to read.

MikeSmithson

Casino_Royale said:

It won’t last if Brexit is BINO’ed or cancelled.

Much of that Tory vote is solidly pro Leave.

And much of it is solidly pro-Remain

TGOHF

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

It won’t last if Brexit is BINO’ed or cancelled.

Much of that Tory vote is solidly pro Leave.

This is also the paradox, the Tory lead won't last with sustained No Deal.

There is no deal scenario - because deals and arrangements are already agreed.

A minimal Brexit would be 1979 redux ? A new leader required ? A bold budget to mitigate involving large tax cuts and noisy spending of the £39 Bn ? Cons might reach 50%.

TheScreamingEagles

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

It won’t last if Brexit is BINO’ed or cancelled.

Much of that Tory vote is solidly pro Leave.

This is also the paradox, the Tory lead won't last with sustained No Deal.

Indeed.

All the rules go out the window this year, I think.

We could see something like

Con 25%

Lab 25%

TIG 25%

Brexit Party 20%

later on this year, and then UNS goes out the window.

Endillion

FPT:

Gardenwalker said:

Endillion said:

Gardenwalker said:

HYUFD said:

Thurungia, Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vormern are no wealthier than most of Wales and Yorkshire

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_regions_by_GDP

Seasoned PBers will understand why I refuse to get into a statistical argument with you.

(If anyone else is interested, I just ask you to look at the figures and make your own judgment).

I've just downloaded the data from Wikipedaia and spent a happy half an hour wading through it. My observations:

[snipped for length]

- Overall, there are 58 regions in the EU poorer than West Wales (the poorer half), with 100m people living in them. This includes 8.4m in Andalucia (Spain), almost all of Portugal, Croatia and Romania, most of Poland, Slovakia and Bulgaria, and about a third of Czechia.

In conclusion, HYUFD is almost certainly right about Slovenia (subject to some caveats on the data etc), on balance wrong on Germany, and by no means is it true that Wales would be among the poorest countries in the EU.

Interesting, isn’t it?

But, you have to do the analysis as if “Wales” was a country, that was my point.

Wales is poorer than Slovenia (probably, since the data only goes to 2016), and I think is poorer than all but 5 countries.

And, I think if you look again, you’ll see it is poorer than all East German Lander (but - to be sure - not necessarily subdivisions within the Lander).

Yes, but I didn't have time. Hence why I based most things on West Wales, and even then the data indicate that Wales is not actually doing that badly, and Yorkshire is pretty much mid table (comparable with many places in Netherlands, France etc). Others are welcome to come to different conclusions, but I'd say that HYUFD is more right than wrong overall.

kle4

tottenhamWC said:

nico67 said:

I won’t be voting Labour again till Corbyn goes and have spoken to quite a few friends , staunch Labour normally but feel the same way.

It’s a culmination of factors , the final straw being the fence sitting on a second vote .

I am genuinely amazed (albeit not surprised) that Labour think their position on Brexit in terms of dodging coming out a public vote is a politically good one. How to wildly annoy most of your core supporters, likely mid ground voters - and members - and very little to no benefit from leavers (based on their stated policy). Madness. At least it means the end of Corbyn. All trust gone now whatever happens it feels like.

Corbyn has calculated that remainers have nowhere else to go. It appears that will be fully tested if he does not switch soon.

bigjohnowls

On Topic

New Centre Party means a Tory Government

No Shit Sherlock

kle4

Anything with Tig in it can be safely put to one side I'd expect, until they are an actual party, which I am doubtful they will become.

TheScreamingEagles

bigjohnowls said:

On Topic

New Centre Party means a Tory Government

No Shit Sherlock

Jeremy Corbyn means a Tory government.

matt

ralphmalph said:

TGOHF said:

No surprise to see the Cons more popular now that Sipsmith Soubry, the Lib Dem and the leftie doctor are out of the party.

I was thinking the same. Voters more positive as Tory extremists leave party.

Rees-Mogg, Bridgen etc remain though. So the extremists haven’t left have they?

bigjohnowls

Also on topic

TIG 6% = Zero MPs

kle4

YBarddCwsc said:

ralphmalph said:

Is this why TIG have not formed a party? As long as polls like this they can make the argument of get rid of Corbyn and we will rejoin and then Labour have a chance of winning again. The withdrawal method applied to politics.

I think that is right. The Labour TIGgers are hoping to rejoin. That is why there is no TIG party.

The 3 Tory TIGgers have been suckered.

Allen, at least, seems to be very disgusted with the Tories on many things, I doubt she would be concerned if Tig falls apart and she cannot go back. The other two I do not know, but frankly most of the splitters seem keen to stress they are still Labour/Tory at heart it is the others who have changed, so I don't think they are that committed necessarily to a new project, if it achieves its aim of influencing the others to prevent Brexit.

Gardenwalker

Endillion said:

FPT:

Gardenwalker said:

Endillion said:

Gardenwalker said:

HYUFD said:

Thurungia, Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vormern are no wealthier than most of Wales and Yorkshire

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_regions_by_GDP

Seasoned PBers will understand why I refuse to get into a statistical argument with you.

(If anyone else is interested, I just ask you to look at the figures and make your own judgment).

I've just downloaded the data from Wikipedaia and spent a happy half an hour wading through it. My observations:

[snipped for length]

- Overall, there are 58 regions in the EU poorer than West Wales (the poorer half), with 100m people living in them. This includes 8.4m in Andalucia (Spain), almost all of Portugal, Croatia and Romania, most of Poland, Slovakia and Bulgaria, and about a third of Czechia.

In conclusion, HYUFD is almost certainly right about Slovenia (subject to some caveats on the data etc), on balance wrong on Germany, and by no means is it true that Wales would be among the poorest countries in the EU.

Interesting, isn’t it?

But, you have to do the analysis as if “Wales” was a country, that was my point.

Wales is poorer than Slovenia (probably, since the data only goes to 2016), and I think is poorer than all but 5 countries.

And, I think if you look again, you’ll see it is poorer than all East German Lander (but - to be sure - not necessarily subdivisions within the Lander).

Yes, but I didn't have time. Hence why I based most things on West Wales, and even then the data indicate that Wales is not actually doing that badly, and Yorkshire is pretty much mid table (comparable with many places in Netherlands, France etc). Others are welcome to come to different conclusions, but I'd say that HYUFD is more right than wrong overall.

Have a look with this, it’s a bit easier to play with the figures

Jonathan

bigjohnowls said:

On Topic

New Centre Party means a Tory Government

No Shit Sherlock

Corbyn and his merry band have screwed up royally. Got arrogant. Thanks a lot.

Big_G_NorthWales

Y0kel said:

Venezuela is in its test of strength stage. There is a 50-50 chance that there will be a serious loss of life.

Report just now 2 have been killed

YBarddCwsc

Endillion said:

FPT:

Gardenwalker said:

Endillion said:

Gardenwalker said:

HYUFD said:

Thurungia, Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vormern are no wealthier than most of Wales and Yorkshire

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_regions_by_GDP

Seasoned PBers will understand why I refuse to get into a statistical argument with you.

(If anyone else is interested, I just ask you to look at the figures and make your own judgment).

I've just downloaded the data from Wikipedaia and spent a happy half an hour wading through it. My observations:

[snipped for length]

- Overall, there are 58 regions in the EU poorer than West Wales (the poorer half), with 100m people living in them. This includes 8.4m in Andalucia (Spain), almost all of Portugal, Croatia and Romania, most of Poland, Slovakia and Bulgaria, and about a third of Czechia.

In conclusion, HYUFD is almost certainly right about Slovenia (subject to some caveats on the data etc), on balance wrong on Germany, and by no means is it true that Wales would be among the poorest countries in the EU.

Interesting, isn’t it?

But, you have to do the analysis as if “Wales” was a country, that was my point.

Wales is poorer than Slovenia (probably, since the data only goes to 2016), and I think is poorer than all but 5 countries.

And, I think if you look again, you’ll see it is poorer than all East German Lander (but - to be sure - not necessarily subdivisions within the Lander).

Yes, but I didn't have time. Hence why I based most things on West Wales, and even then the data indicate that Wales is not actually doing that badly, and Yorkshire is pretty much mid table (comparable with many places in Netherlands, France etc). Others are welcome to come to different conclusions, but I'd say that HYUFD is more right than wrong overall.

The most remarkable thing of all is that Slovenia exists as an independent country.

Who would have though that a country that had never before existed -- that had been part of the Byzantine Empire, the Carolingian Empire, the Holy Roman Empire, the Habsburg Monarchy, the Republic of Venice, the Illyrian Provinces of Napoleon I, the Austrian Empire, Austria-Hungary, the Kingdom of the Serbs, Croats and Slovenes and Yugoslavia would finally be able to establish itself as an independent state of 2 million odd people in 1991.

Astonishing -- I mean Scotland, Catalonia, Wales, Flanders or Bavaria have all more history as independent kingdoms or states than Slovenia.

TGOHF

kle4 said:

YBarddCwsc said:

ralphmalph said:

Is this why TIG have not formed a party? As long as polls like this they can make the argument of get rid of Corbyn and we will rejoin and then Labour have a chance of winning again. The withdrawal method applied to politics.

I think that is right. The Labour TIGgers are hoping to rejoin. That is why there is no TIG party.

The 3 Tory TIGgers have been suckered.

Allen, at least, seems to be very disgusted with the Tories on many things, I doubt she would be concerned if Tig falls apart and she cannot go back. The other two I do not know, but frankly most of the splitters seem keen to stress they are still Labour/Tory at heart it is the others who have changed, so I don't think they are that committed necessarily to a new project, if it achieves its aim of influencing the others to prevent Brexit.

The last remnants of Cameroons.

MarqueeMark

matt said:

ralphmalph said:

TGOHF said:

No surprise to see the Cons more popular now that Sipsmith Soubry, the Lib Dem and the leftie doctor are out of the party.

I was thinking the same. Voters more positive as Tory extremists leave party.

Rees-Mogg, Bridgen etc remain though. So the extremists haven’t left have they?

The ones who don't want to honour the Referendum result have....

SeanT

Jonathan said:

bigjohnowls said:

On Topic

New Centre Party means a Tory Government

No Shit Sherlock

Corbyn and his merry band have screwed up royally. Got arrogant. Thanks a lot.

You should be pleased. This is the best thing to happen to your party in years. Corbyn now looks mortal, as everyone - save the hardcore nutters - realises and accepts that he will NEVER be PM.

In the end, even his own MPs will not let him near power.

Go long on Thornberry. You heard it here first.

TGOHF

https://twitter.com/mirrorpolitics/status/1099315656003108865?s=21

kle4

YBarddCwsc said:

Endillion said:

FPT:

Gardenwalker said:

Endillion said:

Gardenwalker said:

HYUFD said:

Thurungia, Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vormern are no wealthier than most of Wales and Yorkshire

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_regions_by_GDP

Seasoned PBers will understand why I refuse to get into a statistical argument with you.

(If anyone else is interested, I just ask you to look at the figures and make your own judgment).

I've just downloaded the data from Wikipedaia and spent a happy half an hour wading through it. My observations:

[snipped for length]

- Overall, there are 58 regions in the EU poorer than West Wales (the poorer half), with 100m people living in them. This includes 8.4m in Andalucia (Spain), almost all of Portugal, Croatia and Romania, most of Poland, Slovakia and Bulgaria, and about a third of Czechia.

In conclusion, HYUFD is almost certainly right about Slovenia (subject to some caveats on the data etc), on balance wrong on Germany, and by no means is it true that Wales would be among the poorest countries in the EU.

Interesting, isn’t it?

But, you have to do the analysis as if “Wales” was a country, that was my point.

Wales is poorer than Slovenia (probably, since the data only goes to 2016), and I think is poorer than all but 5 countries.

And, I think if you look again, you’ll see it is poorer than all East German Lander (but - to be sure - not necessarily subdivisions within the Lander).

Yes, but I didn't have time. Hence why I based most things on West Wales, and even then the data indicate that Wales is not actually doing that badly, and Yorkshire is pretty much mid table (comparable with many places in Netherlands, France etc). Others are welcome to come to different conclusions, but I'd say that HYUFD is more right than wrong overall.

The most remarkable thing of all is that Slovenia exists as an independent country.

Who would have though that a country that had never before existed -- that had been part of the Byzantine Empire, the Carolingian Empire, the Holy Roman Empire, the Habsburg Monarchy, the Republic of Venice, the Illyrian Provinces of Napoleon I, the Austrian Empire, Austria-Hungary, the Kingdom of the Serbs, Croats and Slovenes and Yugoslavia would finally be able to establish itself as an independent state of 2 million odd people in 1991.

Astonishing -- I mean Scotland, Catalonia, Wales, Flanders or Bavaria have all more history as independent kingdoms or states than Slovenia.

I did not know that was the case. What a remarkable story.

SeanT

kle4 said:

YBarddCwsc said:

ralphmalph said:

Is this why TIG have not formed a party? As long as polls like this they can make the argument of get rid of Corbyn and we will rejoin and then Labour have a chance of winning again. The withdrawal method applied to politics.

I think that is right. The Labour TIGgers are hoping to rejoin. That is why there is no TIG party.

The 3 Tory TIGgers have been suckered.

Allen, at least, seems to be very disgusted with the Tories on many things, I doubt she would be concerned if Tig falls apart and she cannot go back. The other two I do not know, but frankly most of the splitters seem keen to stress they are still Labour/Tory at heart it is the others who have changed, so I don't think they are that committed necessarily to a new project, if it achieves its aim of influencing the others to prevent Brexit.

I wonder how they will react if Corbyn is finally, grudgingly persuaded to back a 2nd vote.

I don't expect this to happen, he is too old and stubborn, but it is now possible.

Barnesian

notme2 said:

Andrew said:

Baxter on that: Con354, Lab218, LD6. Tiggies 5!

And she still wouldn’t be able to get the WA through parliament...

I think it makes more sense to add the LibDem and TIG share as they would almost certainly be in a pact of some kind. Baxter then gives Con342, Lab228, LD/TIG18

kle4

SeanT said:

Jonathan said:

bigjohnowls said:

On Topic

New Centre Party means a Tory Government

No Shit Sherlock

Corbyn and his merry band have screwed up royally. Got arrogant. Thanks a lot.

You should be pleased. This is the best thing to happen to your party in years. Corbyn now looks mortal, as everyone - save the hardcore nutters - realises and accepts that he will NEVER be PM.

Will that matter if the party itself is not able to shift away from him and his supporters? Few people would want the Tories to have no viable opposition I would think.

HYUFD

Casino_Royale said:

It won’t last if Brexit is BINO’ed or cancelled.

Much of that Tory vote is solidly pro Leave.

Some of the Tory Leave vote would go to UKIP or Farage's new Brexit Party in that case.

At the moment based on tonight's Opinium the biggest movement is Labour and LD Remainers to TIG

felix

TGOHF said:

https://twitter.com/mirrorpolitics/status/1099315656003108865?s=21

Yet she's spoken of as leadership material. That is a seriously deranged comment.

kle4

SeanT said:

kle4 said:

YBarddCwsc said:

ralphmalph said:

Is this why TIG have not formed a party? As long as polls like this they can make the argument of get rid of Corbyn and we will rejoin and then Labour have a chance of winning again. The withdrawal method applied to politics.

I think that is right. The Labour TIGgers are hoping to rejoin. That is why there is no TIG party.

The 3 Tory TIGgers have been suckered.

Allen, at least, seems to be very disgusted with the Tories on many things, I doubt she would be concerned if Tig falls apart and she cannot go back. The other two I do not know, but frankly most of the splitters seem keen to stress they are still Labour/Tory at heart it is the others who have changed, so I don't think they are that committed necessarily to a new project, if it achieves its aim of influencing the others to prevent Brexit.

I wonder how they will react if Corbyn is finally, grudgingly persuaded to back a 2nd vote.

I don't expect this to happen, he is too old and stubborn, but it is now possible.

He's surprised me by not doing so before, I truly cannot see the negatives for him to do so. Given the Labour Tiggers made sure to list the other reason they left they surely would not ask to come back, nor be accepted if they did, but if his backing a second vote actually leads to such, I would not be surprised if they essentially call it job done. They'd continue on, point out they forced the change on the big parties, and then quietly fade away as an election approaches. All they have is Brexit - once that is done what's the point of them? To change politics? That doesn't mean anything.

kyf_100

TGOHF said:

https://twitter.com/mirrorpolitics/status/1099315656003108865?s=21

If you're so inclined, you can get Thornberry as next PM after Tmay at 84/1 on BF exchange right now.

Still a long shot, but probs undervalued.

kle4

felix said:

TGOHF said:

https://twitter.com/mirrorpolitics/status/1099315656003108865?s=21

Yet she's spoken of as leadership material. That is a seriously deranged comment.

Being charitable, she was speaking at a political rally to whip up the already fervent. If she truly believes it though, it is a very odd thing for someone to believe, and that applies if a Tory says the same thing. It simply makes no sense to make a lifelong commitment, as many members and MPs complain the parties shift dramatically to the point of unrecognizably, you cannot reasonably commit forevermore.

another_richard

If anyone wants to see a town centre which is doing well then go to York.

It was like the Saturday before Christmas there today and its not a cheap place either.

Some people might be having a drop of austerity but there are many, many others who are wallowing in their own consumption.

kle4

another_richard said:

If anyone wants to see a town centre which is doing well then go to York.

It was like the Saturday before Christmas there today and its not a cheap place either.

Some people might be having a drop of austerity but there are many, many others who are wallowing in their own consumption.

One day I'd like to be able to wallow in something.

AndyJS

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

It won’t last if Brexit is BINO’ed or cancelled.

Much of that Tory vote is solidly pro Leave.

This is also the paradox, the Tory lead won't last with sustained No Deal.

Indeed.

All the rules go out the window this year, I think.

We could see something like

Con 25%

Lab 25%

TIG 25%

Brexit Party 20%

later on this year, and then UNS goes out the window.

No chance of The Brexit Party being higher than 10%.

SouthamObserver

bigjohnowls said:

On Topic

New Centre Party means a Tory Government

No Shit Sherlock

If people don’t vote Labour it’s Labour’s fault, no-one else’s.

AndyJS

kle4 said:

YBarddCwsc said:

ralphmalph said:

Is this why TIG have not formed a party? As long as polls like this they can make the argument of get rid of Corbyn and we will rejoin and then Labour have a chance of winning again. The withdrawal method applied to politics.

I think that is right. The Labour TIGgers are hoping to rejoin. That is why there is no TIG party.

The 3 Tory TIGgers have been suckered.

Allen, at least, seems to be very disgusted with the Tories on many things, I doubt she would be concerned if Tig falls apart and she cannot go back. The other two I do not know, but frankly most of the splitters seem keen to stress they are still Labour/Tory at heart it is the others who have changed, so I don't think they are that committed necessarily to a new project, if it achieves its aim of influencing the others to prevent Brexit.

She never said anything that sounded like she was a Conservative of any type. I'm not sure why she joined the party.

kinabalu

Glasto 17 does seem a long time ago but there is no way that Jeremy should be written off yet. People are doing what people always do, male and female, they are letting desire unduly impact their judgement.

SouthamObserver

felix said:

TGOHF said:

https://twitter.com/mirrorpolitics/status/1099315656003108865?s=21

Yet she's spoken of as leadership material. That is a seriously deranged comment.

She’s saying it because she wants to be leader. She’ll need Cult votes to succeed.

AndyJS

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Y0kel said:

Venezuela is in its test of strength stage. There is a 50-50 chance that there will be a serious loss of life.

Report just now 2 have been killed

Has Corbyn commented on the situation in Venezuela?

OblitusSumMe

SouthamObserver said:

bigjohnowls said:

On Topic

New Centre Party means a Tory Government

No Shit Sherlock

If people don’t vote Labour it’s Labour’s fault, no-one else’s.

That's my line.

OblitusSumMe

SeanT said:

kle4 said:

YBarddCwsc said:

ralphmalph said:

Is this why TIG have not formed a party? As long as polls like this they can make the argument of get rid of Corbyn and we will rejoin and then Labour have a chance of winning again. The withdrawal method applied to politics.

I think that is right. The Labour TIGgers are hoping to rejoin. That is why there is no TIG party.

The 3 Tory TIGgers have been suckered.

Allen, at least, seems to be very disgusted with the Tories on many things, I doubt she would be concerned if Tig falls apart and she cannot go back. The other two I do not know, but frankly most of the splitters seem keen to stress they are still Labour/Tory at heart it is the others who have changed, so I don't think they are that committed necessarily to a new project, if it achieves its aim of influencing the others to prevent Brexit.

I wonder how they will react if Corbyn is finally, grudgingly persuaded to back a 2nd vote.

I don't expect this to happen, he is too old and stubborn, but it is now possible.

It won't make any difference. They won't believe he means it, if it doesn't happen they'll blame him (as for the referendum in 2016) and if it does happen they won't give him the credit.

MikeSmithson

Big news is that Burnley are first on Match of the Day tonight

nico67

kle4 said:

tottenhamWC said:

nico67 said:

I won’t be voting Labour again till Corbyn goes and have spoken to quite a few friends , staunch Labour normally but feel the same way.

It’s a culmination of factors , the final straw being the fence sitting on a second vote .

I am genuinely amazed (albeit not surprised) that Labour think their position on Brexit in terms of dodging coming out a public vote is a politically good one. How to wildly annoy most of your core supporters, likely mid ground voters - and members - and very little to no benefit from leavers (based on their stated policy). Madness. At least it means the end of Corbyn. All trust gone now whatever happens it feels like.

Corbyn has calculated that remainers have nowhere else to go. It appears that will be fully tested if he does not switch soon.

Some of the drop might be due to apathy . We’d need to see the raw figures before turnout weighting . But Remainers who aren’t part of the Corbyn fan club are seriously hacked off . If the conference motion didn’t have the option of the second vote and Labour policy was simply to try to get a soft Brexit then fine but Corbyn drones on about the membership then completely ignores them . He thinks he can get away with this but is deluded .

notme2

AndyJS said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Y0kel said:

Venezuela is in its test of strength stage. There is a 50-50 chance that there will be a serious loss of life.

Report just now 2 have been killed

Has Corbyn commented on the situation in Venezuela?

It’s all something to do with American sanctions and a time machine.

notme2

another_richard said:

If anyone wants to see a town centre which is doing well then go to York.

It was like the Saturday before Christmas there today and its not a cheap place either.

Some people might be having a drop of austerity but there are many, many others who are wallowing in their own consumption.

Yup, was there for for the York marathon (spectator). A good, busy and smart city.

AndyJS

notme2 said:

another_richard said:

If anyone wants to see a town centre which is doing well then go to York.

It was like the Saturday before Christmas there today and its not a cheap place either.

Some people might be having a drop of austerity but there are many, many others who are wallowing in their own consumption.

Yup, was there for for the York marathon (spectator). A good, busy and smart city.

It's a bit smug for my liking. I prefer down to earth places like Manchester, Birmingham, Nottingham, Newcastle, etc.

another_richard

kle4 said:

another_richard said:

If anyone wants to see a town centre which is doing well then go to York.

It was like the Saturday before Christmas there today and its not a cheap place either.

Some people might be having a drop of austerity but there are many, many others who are wallowing in their own consumption.

One day I'd like to be able to wallow in something.

If you do make sure its in something enjoyable.

The amount of spending going on in York today was intoxicating.

justin124

Are there any Opinium voting intention figures carried out in the usual way with TIG excluded? It seems odd that TIG has been included here - probably prompted in the question - yet there is no mention of the Brexit party.

Nigelb

TGOHF said:

No surprise to see the Cons more popular now that Sipsmith Soubry, the Lib Dem and the leftie doctor are out of the party.

What a charming fellow you are.

PClipp

Barnesian said:

notme2 said:

Andrew said:

Baxter on that: Con354, Lab218, LD6. Tiggies 5!

And she still wouldn’t be able to get the WA through parliament...

I think it makes more sense to add the LibDem and TIG share as they would almost certainly be in a pact of some kind. Baxter then gives Con342, Lab228, LD/TIG18

The Lib Dems were on 18 sets, weren`t they? just before TIG started.

another_richard

notme2 said:

another_richard said:

If anyone wants to see a town centre which is doing well then go to York.

It was like the Saturday before Christmas there today and its not a cheap place either.

Some people might be having a drop of austerity but there are many, many others who are wallowing in their own consumption.

Yup, was there for for the York marathon (spectator). A good, busy and smart city.

Its a bit too touristy and expensive for my liking buts its always a good place to visit and has loads of great pubs.

What was noticeable to me was how many more restaurants there seemed to be and York has never been short of them.

For all the talk of austerity there are many, many people with lots and lots of spare money.

Casino_Royale

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

It won’t last if Brexit is BINO’ed or cancelled.

Much of that Tory vote is solidly pro Leave.

This is also the paradox, the Tory lead won't last with sustained No Deal.

Indeed.

All the rules go out the window this year, I think.

We could see something like

Con 25%

Lab 25%

TIG 25%

Brexit Party 20%

later on this year, and then UNS goes out the window.

Yep.

notme2

Deltapoll:
Con 39
Lab 31
TIg 11
Lib 5
UKIP 4

felix

NEW: Deltapoll for The Mail on Sunday:

CON: 39
LAB: 31
TIG: 11
LIB: 5
UKIP: 4

But without Corbyn as Labour leader…

LAB: 40
CON: 37
TIG: 7
LIB: 6
UKIP: 3

(1,027 21/22 FEB)

Nigelb

kyf_100 said:

TGOHF said:

https://twitter.com/mirrorpolitics/status/1099315656003108865?s=21

If you're so inclined, you can get Thornberry as next PM after Tmay at 84/1 on BF exchange right now.

Still a long shot, but probs undervalued.

On the grounds she’s gone the full Corbyn ?

‘Crush the traitors’ is not exactly prime ministerial, any more from her than from the original model.

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1099407402900836354

notme2

another_richard said:

notme2 said:

another_richard said:

If anyone wants to see a town centre which is doing well then go to York.

It was like the Saturday before Christmas there today and its not a cheap place either.

Some people might be having a drop of austerity but there are many, many others who are wallowing in their own consumption.

Yup, was there for for the York marathon (spectator). A good, busy and smart city.

Its a bit too touristy and expensive for my liking buts its always a good place to visit and has loads of great pubs.

What was noticeable to me was how many more restaurants there seemed to be and York has never been short of them.

For all the talk of austerity there are many, many people with lots and lots of spare money.

Austerity was largely a marketing tool with the exception of local authorities and police.

notme2

https://twitter.com/mos_politics/status/1099406036430135297?s=21

kle4

felix said:

NEW: Deltapoll for The Mail on Sunday:

CON: 39
LAB: 31
TIG: 11
LIB: 5
UKIP: 4

But without Corbyn as Labour leader…

LAB: 40
CON: 37
TIG: 7
LIB: 6
UKIP: 3

(1,027 21/22 FEB)

Pretty funny stuff. But the party have seen suggestions they'd do better without him before I'm sure.

DecrepitJohnL

notme2 said:

AndyJS said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Y0kel said:

Venezuela is in its test of strength stage. There is a 50-50 chance that there will be a serious loss of life.

Report just now 2 have been killed

Has Corbyn commented on the situation in Venezuela?

It’s all something to do with American sanctions and a time machine.

It's nothing to do with the next British election, as the last election proved. If the Foreign Secretary can't find his own arse Slovenia with both hands and a map, why do Tories suppose the voter on the Clapham omnibus is intimately familiar with Venzuela?

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/kyledcheney/status/1099407588649852928

felix

another_richard said:

notme2 said:

another_richard said:

If anyone wants to see a town centre which is doing well then go to York.

It was like the Saturday before Christmas there today and its not a cheap place either.

Some people might be having a drop of austerity but there are many, many others who are wallowing in their own consumption.

Yup, was there for for the York marathon (spectator). A good, busy and smart city.

Its a bit too touristy and expensive for my liking buts its always a good place to visit and has loads of great pubs.

What was noticeable to me was how many more restaurants there seemed to be and York has never been short of them.

For all the talk of austerity there are many, many people with lots and lots of spare money.

The whole 'austerity' mantra trotted out by the left is a massively exaggerated in terms of the numbers of people affected.

kle4

notme2 said:

https://twitter.com/mos_politics/status/1099406036430135297?s=21

Not that anyone gets a good score, but I'm surprised Berger does not rate better as leader of the Tiggers, she was among the more prominent of them, has a powerful personal story and is attractive. Sorry, telegenic.

notme2

Two 8 point leads... looking like a trend.

felix

Fairly clear trend from the first 2 polls.

nico67

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1099407402900836354

I’m really glad someone’s done a poll with the specific Corbyn question . No surprise to see him dragging the Labour vote down .

TheScreamingEagles

kle4 said:

notme2 said:

https://twitter.com/mos_politics/status/1099406036430135297?s=21

Not that anyone gets a good score, but I'm surprised Berger does not rate better as leader of the Tiggers, she was among the more prominent of them, has a powerful personal story and is attractive. Sorry, telegenic.

Outside of politics she's relatively unknown.

David Cameron would have rated similarly in early 2005.

DecrepitJohnL

MikeSmithson said:

Big news is that Burnley are first on Match of the Day tonight

David Cameron's favourite team

HYUFD

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1099407402900836354

Tory vote only down 2% if Corbyn is replaced as Labour leader but TIG down 4% if Corbyn is replaced.

For the moment TIG is offering a home for centre left Remainers disaffected with Corbyn

another_richard

AndyJS said:

notme2 said:

another_richard said:

If anyone wants to see a town centre which is doing well then go to York.

It was like the Saturday before Christmas there today and its not a cheap place either.

Some people might be having a drop of austerity but there are many, many others who are wallowing in their own consumption.

Yup, was there for for the York marathon (spectator). A good, busy and smart city.

It's a bit smug for my liking. I prefer down to earth places like Manchester, Birmingham, Nottingham, Newcastle, etc.

Leeds is a solid place.

The best bit of Sheffield is the nice countryside which starts about three miles into the western suburbs.

TGOHF

Without Corbyn is for the birds without naming the replacement.

algarkirk

YBarddCwsc said:

Endillion said:

FPT:

Gardenwalker said:

Endillion said:

Gardenwalker said:

HYUFD said:

Thurungia, Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vormern are no wealthier than most of Wales and Yorkshire

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_regions_by_GDP

Seasoned PBers will understand why I refuse to get into a statistical argument with you.

(If anyone else is interested, I just ask you to look at the figures and make your own judgment).

I've just downloaded the data from Wikipedaia and spent a happy half an hour wading through it. My observations:

[snipped for length]

- Overall, there are 58 regions in the EU poorer than West Wales (the poorer half), with 100m people living in them. This includes 8.4m in Andalucia (Spain), almost all of Portugal, Croatia and Romania, most of Poland, Slovakia and Bulgaria, and about a third of Czechia.

In conclusion, HYUFD is almost certainly right about Slovenia (subject to some caveats on the data etc), on balance wrong on Germany, and by no means is it true that Wales would be among the poorest countries in the EU.

Interesting, isn’t it?

But, you have to do the analysis as if “Wales” was a country, that was my point.

Wales is poorer than Slovenia (probably, since the data only goes to 2016), and I think is poorer than all but 5 countries.

And, I think if you look again, you’ll see it is poorer than all East German Lander (but - to be sure - not necessarily subdivisions within the Lander).

Yes, but I didn't have time. Hence why I based most things on West Wales, and even then the data indicate that Wales is not actually doing that badly, and Yorkshire is pretty much mid table (comparable with many places in Netherlands, France etc). Others are welcome to come to different conclusions, but I'd say that HYUFD is more right than wrong overall.

The most remarkable thing of all is that Slovenia exists as an independent country.

Who would have though that a country that had never before existed -- that had been part of the Byzantine Empire, the Carolingian Empire, the Holy Roman Empire, the Habsburg Monarchy, the Republic of Venice, the Illyrian Provinces of Napoleon I, the Austrian Empire, Austria-Hungary, the Kingdom of the Serbs, Croats and Slovenes and Yugoslavia would finally be able to establish itself as an independent state of 2 million odd people in 1991.

Astonishing -- I mean Scotland, Catalonia, Wales, Flanders or Bavaria have all more history as independent kingdoms or states than Slovenia.

And if you were a Slovenian you may understandably think that the EU is a marked improvement on most of what has gone before, and stick to it like glue.

notme2

felix said:

another_richard said:

notme2 said:

another_richard said:

If anyone wants to see a town centre which is doing well then go to York.

It was like the Saturday before Christmas there today and its not a cheap place either.

Some people might be having a drop of austerity but there are many, many others who are wallowing in their own consumption.

Yup, was there for for the York marathon (spectator). A good, busy and smart city.

Its a bit too touristy and expensive for my liking buts its always a good place to visit and has loads of great pubs.

What was noticeable to me was how many more restaurants there seemed to be and York has never been short of them.

For all the talk of austerity there are many, many people with lots and lots of spare money.

The whole 'austerity' mantra trotted out by the left is a massively exaggerated in terms of the numbers of people affected.

Indeed. The failure of labour is to revel in poverty p*rn, and they miss it when things are getting better. It was canny for labour to rename the bedroom tax welfare change but it did them no electoral good. They need to inspire people’s aspirations not just roll out nonsense about the dwp murdering 120,000 people.

Nigelb

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/kyledcheney/status/1099407588649852928

They are referring to charged defendants.
Plenty of unindicted, including Trump, who don’t enter into the calculation as yet.

peter_from_putney

Surely the party showing the worst decline in this latest poll are the LibDems, down from 8% support to just 5%, a 37.5% decline?. Poor old Uncle Vince certainly isn't cutting it. I thought he was supposed to be retiring or am I imaging things?

Big_G_NorthWales

DecrepitJohnL said:

MikeSmithson said:

Big news is that Burnley are first on Match of the Day tonight

David Cameron's favourite team

Err Aston Villa

AramintaMoonbeamQC

No wonder little Owen's arse was making buttons through the week, this polling looks like it might set a few hares running.

Front page Observer lead tomorrow references 'senior parliamentarian' ready to walk.

felix

TGOHF said:

Without Corbyn is for the birds without naming the replacement.

And unless he quits the loyalists love him - Thornberry happy to give her life!!! Almost.

kle4

You almost have to admire an authoritarian leader who intends to stand for 'election' when they have rarely been seen in public in six years after having a stroke

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-47339414

Whatever one might think of Mugabe, he was certainly always out and about even in his 90s.

another_richard

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

No wonder little Owen's arse was making buttons through the week, this polling looks like it might set a few hares running.

Front page Observer lead tomorrow references 'senior parliamentarian' ready to walk.

That suggests it could be someone from the HoL.

algarkirk

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

notme2 said:

https://twitter.com/mos_politics/status/1099406036430135297?s=21

Not that anyone gets a good score, but I'm surprised Berger does not rate better as leader of the Tiggers, she was among the more prominent of them, has a powerful personal story and is attractive. Sorry, telegenic.

Outside of politics she's relatively unknown.

David Cameron would have rated similarly in early 2005.

Heidi Allen is the one with star quality.

justin124

It seems a bit pointless including TIG at this stage when no party even exists and it is far from clear what its programme might be. The hypothetical % voteshare given, however, is much lower than was being picked up by the SDP back in Spring 1981.

williamglenn

SeanT said:

kle4 said:

YBarddCwsc said:

ralphmalph said:

Is this why TIG have not formed a party? As long as polls like this they can make the argument of get rid of Corbyn and we will rejoin and then Labour have a chance of winning again. The withdrawal method applied to politics.

I think that is right. The Labour TIGgers are hoping to rejoin. That is why there is no TIG party.

The 3 Tory TIGgers have been suckered.

Allen, at least, seems to be very disgusted with the Tories on many things, I doubt she would be concerned if Tig falls apart and she cannot go back. The other two I do not know, but frankly most of the splitters seem keen to stress they are still Labour/Tory at heart it is the others who have changed, so I don't think they are that committed necessarily to a new project, if it achieves its aim of influencing the others to prevent Brexit.

I wonder how they will react if Corbyn is finally, grudgingly persuaded to back a 2nd vote.

I don't expect this to happen, he is too old and stubborn, but it is now possible.

This rant about the “scabs” also shows how some of the cult really want to believe Corbyn is playing the long game.

https://twitter.com/talkradio/status/1098547014869106689?s=21

felix

peter_from_putney said:

Surely the party showing the worst decline in this latest poll are the LibDems, down from 8% support to just 5%, a 37.5% decline?. Poor old Uncle Vince certainly isn't cutting it. I thought he was supposed to be retiring or am I imaging things?

They really need to kick him out, disband and join the Tiggers pronto or both are probaly doomed. Even then the odds are against.

IanB2

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1099407402900836354

Tory vote only down 2% if Corbyn is replaced as Labour leader but TIG down 4% if Corbyn is replaced.

For the moment TIG is offering a home for centre left Remainers disaffected with Corbyn

Suggests that the Tory lead rests entirely on Corbyn, which is credible.

another_richard

Big_G_NorthWales said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

MikeSmithson said:

Big news is that Burnley are first on Match of the Day tonight

David Cameron's favourite team

Err Aston Villa

Cameron got his favourite football team mixed up between two which play in claret and blue as also do Burnley.

YBarddCwsc

algarkirk said:

And if you were a Slovenian you may understandably think that the EU is a marked improvement on most of what has gone before, and stick to it like glue.

Possibly.

But, another reading is that Scotland or Catalonia have so far failed where Slovenia succeeded because it was better to be part of the Austrian-Hungarian empire or Yugoslavia rather than part of the British Empire or Spain.