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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s Brexit news on how Russia sought to influence the re

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited March 7 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s Brexit news on how Russia sought to influence the referendum & YouGov on what voters think will happen

US Senate report on Russia's role during the UK referendum campaign

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • philiphphiliph Posts: 3,310
    edited March 7
    A bit sad if we are so weak of mind that the activities, propaganda and adverts on social media influence us to a significant extent.

    And a possible first
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 17,301
    Second
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 19,136
    I wonder how as many as 19% think Parliament will let Britain leave without a deal on time. Laying that option is all but free money.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 43,162
    Scott_P said:
    He's right. And they should not have a problem with that, since they would say they are making the right choice here.

    Will any Cabinet Members finally throw in the towel if after the vote fails against next week May proposed to do nothing again? It's time to give up on Brexit - when even the Brexit purists don't want the Brexit that is on offer, just stop.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 27,342
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    He's right. And they should not have a problem with that, since they would say they are making the right choice here.

    Will any Cabinet Members finally throw in the towel if after the vote fails against next week May proposed to do nothing again? It's time to give up on Brexit - when even the Brexit purists don't want the Brexit that is on offer, just stop.
    Hard to disagree with Rentoul. In a strange way, people like Bernard Jenkin, Mark Francois, Chuka Ummuna, and Dominic Grieve or on the same side.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 22,297
    edited March 7
    The UK senate report is a bit misleading, it seems to me. From the Guardian article:

    The report by Democrats on the Senate foreign relations committee, titled Putin’s asymmetric assault on democracy in Russia and Europe: implications for US national security, pinpoints the way in which UK campaign finance laws do not require disclosure of political donations if they are from “the beneficial owners of non-British companies that are incorporated in the EU and carry out business in the UK”.

    This opacity, the report suggests, “may have enabled Russian-related money to be directed with insufficient scrutiny to various UK political actors”.


    That is correct in a literal sense, but any company registered in the UK has (since June 2016) had to disclose the beneficial owner, through the 'People with Significant Control (PSC)' register (a provision dating from the 2010-2016 period when we had good government). The rules on that are very strict. Admittedly the timing leaves a window where in principle a donation related to influencing the referendum could have been made before the PSC declaration, changing the beneficial owner before the PSC declaration was made, but that would involve some very dodgy-looking acrobatics which would be obvious to any half-competent Guardian journalist looking at the lists of donors. At the very least it would be obvious that something was fishy.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 51,299
    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    He's right. And they should not have a problem with that, since they would say they are making the right choice here.

    Will any Cabinet Members finally throw in the towel if after the vote fails against next week May proposed to do nothing again? It's time to give up on Brexit - when even the Brexit purists don't want the Brexit that is on offer, just stop.
    Hard to disagree with Rentoul. In a strange way, people like Bernard Jenkin, Mark Francois, Chuka Ummuna, and Dominic Grieve or on the same side.
    Well they all march through the same lobby against the negotiated Brexit deal
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 11,531
    Scott_P said:
    Dans a racist isnt he.

    Hates non zionist Jews Founded Migration Matters etc etc
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 2,103
    edited March 7
    Scott_P said:
    Corbyn didn’t invent hard lefty antisemitism, nor is what is happening in America directly related to him. It’s been developing internationally for a long time, simply now the religious fervour of the “progressive” movement has reached fever pitch and is giving it a mainstream platform.

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 7,910
    edited March 7
    philiph said:

    A bit sad if we are so weak of mind that the activities, propaganda and adverts on social media influence us to a significant extent.

    And a possible first

    Not to mention breathless Guardian reporting of dodgy senate reports of, well, nothing(?), which themselves are no less propaganda efforts.

    Lest we forget, the US sought strongly to influence the result in accordance with its own stated geopolitical aims, or were they just acting as kindly and altruistic friends?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 45,162

    Corbyn didn’t invent hard lefty antisemitism, nor is what is happening in America directly related to him. It’s been developing for a long time, simply now the religious fervour of the “progressive” movement has reached fever pitch and is giving it a mainstream platform.



  • FloaterFloater Posts: 7,495
    Scott_P said:
    I have a feeling if they get in they will take some budging.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 4,367
    The Guardian article in the header is over a year old!
    Not sure of the immediate relevance.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 7,495
    edited March 7
    Scott_P said:

    Corbyn didn’t invent hard lefty antisemitism, nor is what is happening in America directly related to him. It’s been developing for a long time, simply now the religious fervour of the “progressive” movement has reached fever pitch and is giving it a mainstream platform.



    Yep - I thought the same thing when reading that at work earlier.

    But hey - its just a vast conspiracy against the saintly trots

    You know the team that includes a potential home secretary that once said

    “We are not interested in reforming … the police, armed services, judiciary and monarchy. We are about dismantling them and replacing them with our own machinery of class rule.”

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,265
    Haven't seen much comment about this but if her deal is rejected and A50 is extended next week will Theresa May resign (as she will have totally failed on the mission she set herself when she became leader in July 2016) ?

    Surely at the point of extension the Tories will need to find a new leader who can come up with a new plan for where we go next?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 27,688

    philiph said:

    A bit sad if we are so weak of mind that the activities, propaganda and adverts on social media influence us to a significant extent.

    And a possible first

    Not to mention breathless Guardian reporting of dodgy senate reports of, well, nothing(?), which themselves are no less propaganda efforts.

    Lest we forget, the US sought strongly to influence the result in accordance with its own stated geopolitical aims, or were they just acting as kindly and altruistic friends?
    There is a huge difference between seeking to influence by openly stating a preference and seeking to manipulate using corrupt financing and unattributable propaganda.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 19,136
    Floater said:

    Scott_P said:
    I have a feeling if they get in they will take some budging.
    Looking at Labour and Trump is like looking at pigs and humans in Animal Farm.

    The creatures outside looked from Labour to Trump, and from Trump to Labour, and from Labour to Trump again; but already it was impossible to say which was which.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 8,162
    GIN1138 said:

    Haven't seen much comment about this but if her deal is rejected and A50 is extended next week will Theresa May resign (as she will have totally failed on the mission she set herself when she became leader in July 2016) ?

    Surely at the point of extension the Tories will need to find a new leader who can come up with a new plan for where we go next?

    I still suspect the most likely outcome is approval of May's deal subject to confirmation in a referendum; in which case she would not resign until after the referendum.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 976
    I've cancelled my £252 bet at 5.15 on Brexit happening by the end of March 2019 by laying at 6.7. So I'm -£58 whatever happens.

    And now of course Brexit WILL happen by end of March! I hope it does.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 595

    GIN1138 said:

    Haven't seen much comment about this but if her deal is rejected and A50 is extended next week will Theresa May resign (as she will have totally failed on the mission she set herself when she became leader in July 2016) ?

    Surely at the point of extension the Tories will need to find a new leader who can come up with a new plan for where we go next?

    I still suspect the most likely outcome is approval of May's deal subject to confirmation in a referendum; in which case she would not resign until after the referendum.
    Even if they have to drag her kicking and screaming into that referendum in the first place even if it's her only remotely sensible route forward.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,265

    GIN1138 said:

    Haven't seen much comment about this but if her deal is rejected and A50 is extended next week will Theresa May resign (as she will have totally failed on the mission she set herself when she became leader in July 2016) ?

    Surely at the point of extension the Tories will need to find a new leader who can come up with a new plan for where we go next?

    I still suspect the most likely outcome is approval of May's deal subject to confirmation in a referendum; in which case she would not resign until after the referendum.
    Theresa May will never agree to another referendum as there wouldn't be a Conservative Party left at the end of it...
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 595


    I just don't think she has anything left at all.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,489
    Politics, where’s the reset button? Can we turn it off and on again?

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 8,443



    I just don't think she has anything left at all.

    Thats been true since she pulled the vote before Christmas. 2 months wasted.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,489



    I just don't think she has anything left at all.

    No unicorn yet? What a shambles.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 595
    Jonathan said:

    Politics, where’s the reset button? Can we turn it off and on again?

    Or give it a good whack on top of the set.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 27,688



    I just don't think she has anything left at all.

    Theresa May got EU leaders in November to say that this is the only deal possible in order to help her sell it. Now she tells them they have to change the deal to help her sell it.

    Why should they trust that she can sell any deal at all?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 19,136
    Foxy said:



    I just don't think she has anything left at all.

    Thats been true since she pulled the vote before Christmas. 2 months wasted.
    That was early December, we're now in March. 3 months wasted.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 43,162
    Foxy said:



    I just don't think she has anything left at all.

    Thats been true since she pulled the vote before Christmas. 2 months wasted.
    More than two months!

    And May telling the EU the deal will be voted down is just plain dumb. They know that. They think we'll cave eventually or remain, not without cause given the paroxysms of fear that parliament has about no deal. Unless May is dumber than she looks she knows they know that. So what does she think that will achieve?

    Pretty pathetic if they cannot even get a new deal to vote on though. Sure, a new one would not sway enough unless it was a true capitulation from the EU, but at least something would allow them to argue it was not a total waste of time.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 8,443

    Foxy said:



    I just don't think she has anything left at all.

    Thats been true since she pulled the vote before Christmas. 2 months wasted.
    That was early December, we're now in March. 3 months wasted.
    Yes, 3 months of Groundhog Day.

    Why would the EU extend for simply more of the same?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 19,136



    I just don't think she has anything left at all.

    Theresa May got EU leaders in November to say that this is the only deal possible in order to help her sell it. Now she tells them they have to change the deal to help her sell it.

    Why should they trust that she can sell any deal at all?
    She can't. She couldn't sell water to a dying man in a desert.

    But MPs can. MPs have said themselves what it will take to get a deal. Unfortunately MPs have given the EU two stark choices.

    Option 1: Drop the backstop and the Deal can be ratified. No deal averted. Parliament has voted for this in principle already.

    Option 2: Don't drop the backstop, the Deal will be rejected and an extension will be requested. No deal will be averted and the EU can demand what it likes as the price for an extension. Parliament has made it clear this is what will be done to avoid No Deal.

    Given those 2 options, which will the EU go for I wonder? Hmmm ...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 43,162
    Scott_P said:
    Why is it the 'final' humiliation?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 43,162
    edited March 7
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:



    I just don't think she has anything left at all.

    Thats been true since she pulled the vote before Christmas. 2 months wasted.
    That was early December, we're now in March. 3 months wasted.
    Yes, 3 months of Groundhog Day.

    Why would the EU extend for simply more of the same?
    I hope they don't but I fear that they too would like the easy way out of buying more time for faffing about - however much they are not going to cave, and however much they say they are ready for no deal, they keep entertaining our apparently stupid attempts to renegotiate, when they could stop asking for us to come up with new ideas and walk away. Even if they are indeed ready for no deal, they might still extend, particularly if they think we will remain.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 19,136
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:



    I just don't think she has anything left at all.

    Thats been true since she pulled the vote before Christmas. 2 months wasted.
    That was early December, we're now in March. 3 months wasted.
    Yes, 3 months of Groundhog Day.

    Why would the EU extend for simply more of the same?
    Because that avoids no deal. Without them needing to compromise. They win.
  • philiph said:

    A bit sad if we are so weak of mind that the activities, propaganda and adverts on social media influence us to a significant extent.

    And a possible first

    Not to mention breathless Guardian reporting of dodgy senate reports of, well, nothing(?), which themselves are no less propaganda efforts.

    Lest we forget, the US sought strongly to influence the result in accordance with its own stated geopolitical aims, or were they just acting as kindly and altruistic friends?
    Go to the back of the queue.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 43,162
    Jonathan said:

    Politics, where’s the reset button? Can we turn it off and on again?

    Reset to when?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 43,162
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Haven't seen much comment about this but if her deal is rejected and A50 is extended next week will Theresa May resign (as she will have totally failed on the mission she set herself when she became leader in July 2016) ?

    Surely at the point of extension the Tories will need to find a new leader who can come up with a new plan for where we go next?

    I still suspect the most likely outcome is approval of May's deal subject to confirmation in a referendum; in which case she would not resign until after the referendum.
    Theresa May will never agree to another referendum as there wouldn't be a Conservative Party left at the end of it...
    So what do you expect to happen? It is abundantly clear that parliament will never approve the WA as it stands, and that the EU will not make significant changes that might change that. Even our tribal politicians are going to have to act at some point, and May is incapable of choosing an option which commands majority support.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 8,443
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:



    I just don't think she has anything left at all.

    Thats been true since she pulled the vote before Christmas. 2 months wasted.
    That was early December, we're now in March. 3 months wasted.
    Yes, 3 months of Groundhog Day.

    Why would the EU extend for simply more of the same?
    I hope they don't but I fear that they too would like the easy way out of buying more time for faffing about - however much they are not going to cave, and however much they say they are ready for no deal, they keep entertaining our apparently stupid attempts to renegotiate, when they could stop asking for us to come up with new ideas and walk away. Even if they are indeed ready for no deal, they might still extend, particularly if they think we will remain.
    No point in a short extension though, I reckon on 21 months.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 2,376



    I just don't think she has anything left at all.

    Theresa May got EU leaders in November to say that this is the only deal possible in order to help her sell it. Now she tells them they have to change the deal to help her sell it.

    Why should they trust that she can sell any deal at all?
    She can't. She couldn't sell water to a dying man in a desert.

    But MPs can. MPs have said themselves what it will take to get a deal. Unfortunately MPs have given the EU two stark choices.

    Option 1: Drop the backstop and the Deal can be ratified. No deal averted. Parliament has voted for this in principle already.

    Option 2: Don't drop the backstop, the Deal will be rejected and an extension will be requested. No deal will be averted and the EU can demand what it likes as the price for an extension. Parliament has made it clear this is what will be done to avoid No Deal.

    Given those 2 options, which will the EU go for I wonder? Hmmm ...
    What I'd do in the EU's situation is say that the UK can have a two-month extension provided the deal passes the Commons first. Otherwise there's no point.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 595
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Haven't seen much comment about this but if her deal is rejected and A50 is extended next week will Theresa May resign (as she will have totally failed on the mission she set herself when she became leader in July 2016) ?

    Surely at the point of extension the Tories will need to find a new leader who can come up with a new plan for where we go next?

    I still suspect the most likely outcome is approval of May's deal subject to confirmation in a referendum; in which case she would not resign until after the referendum.
    Theresa May will never agree to another referendum as there wouldn't be a Conservative Party left at the end of it...
    May has to accept that she's walked herself into a position where the choice is not about whether or not she does the Conservative party damage, but instead merely which option does the least damage to the Conservative party.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 2,376
    Did the Narnian government ever reply to our request for assistance?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,489
    edited March 7
    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Politics, where’s the reset button? Can we turn it off and on again?

    Reset to when?
    Before it all went wrong.

    10th September 2001 is a good date.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 19,136
    Chris said:



    I just don't think she has anything left at all.

    Theresa May got EU leaders in November to say that this is the only deal possible in order to help her sell it. Now she tells them they have to change the deal to help her sell it.

    Why should they trust that she can sell any deal at all?
    She can't. She couldn't sell water to a dying man in a desert.

    But MPs can. MPs have said themselves what it will take to get a deal. Unfortunately MPs have given the EU two stark choices.

    Option 1: Drop the backstop and the Deal can be ratified. No deal averted. Parliament has voted for this in principle already.

    Option 2: Don't drop the backstop, the Deal will be rejected and an extension will be requested. No deal will be averted and the EU can demand what it likes as the price for an extension. Parliament has made it clear this is what will be done to avoid No Deal.

    Given those 2 options, which will the EU go for I wonder? Hmmm ...
    What I'd do in the EU's situation is say that the UK can have a two-month extension provided the deal passes the Commons first. Otherwise there's no point.
    That assumes the EU would prefer No Deal over dragging this on. They don't.

    What the EU wants is the deal ratified. The last thing the EU wants is No Deal. The second-last thing the EU wants is to compromise. The third-last the EU wants is this dragging on.

    What the EU wants it can't get. Better to compromise than see no deal, but better to let this drag on than to compromise since we won't go to No Deal.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 595
    Chris said:

    Did the Narnian government ever reply to our request for assistance?

    They're still waiting on our shipment of Turkish Delight.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 19,136

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Haven't seen much comment about this but if her deal is rejected and A50 is extended next week will Theresa May resign (as she will have totally failed on the mission she set herself when she became leader in July 2016) ?

    Surely at the point of extension the Tories will need to find a new leader who can come up with a new plan for where we go next?

    I still suspect the most likely outcome is approval of May's deal subject to confirmation in a referendum; in which case she would not resign until after the referendum.
    Theresa May will never agree to another referendum as there wouldn't be a Conservative Party left at the end of it...
    May has to accept that she's walked herself into a position where the choice is not about whether or not she does the Conservative party damage, but instead merely which option does the least damage to the Conservative party.
    May should accept she's part of the problem and request a meeting with Her Majesty ...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,265
    edited March 7
    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Haven't seen much comment about this but if her deal is rejected and A50 is extended next week will Theresa May resign (as she will have totally failed on the mission she set herself when she became leader in July 2016) ?

    Surely at the point of extension the Tories will need to find a new leader who can come up with a new plan for where we go next?

    I still suspect the most likely outcome is approval of May's deal subject to confirmation in a referendum; in which case she would not resign until after the referendum.
    Theresa May will never agree to another referendum as there wouldn't be a Conservative Party left at the end of it...
    So what do you expect to happen? It is abundantly clear that parliament will never approve the WA as it stands, and that the EU will not make significant changes that might change that. Even our tribal politicians are going to have to act at some point, and May is incapable of choosing an option which commands majority support.
    I would say probably a long extension is agreed (couple of years) Theresa May resigns in failure and a new Con leader is elected who then holds a general election with a new plan (managed No Deal, Canada+++, call the whole thing off etc)

    What the result of that general election would be... Who knows!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 51,299
    Not much support for a "people's vote" in Dudley !
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,265
    edited March 7

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Haven't seen much comment about this but if her deal is rejected and A50 is extended next week will Theresa May resign (as she will have totally failed on the mission she set herself when she became leader in July 2016) ?

    Surely at the point of extension the Tories will need to find a new leader who can come up with a new plan for where we go next?

    I still suspect the most likely outcome is approval of May's deal subject to confirmation in a referendum; in which case she would not resign until after the referendum.
    Theresa May will never agree to another referendum as there wouldn't be a Conservative Party left at the end of it...
    May has to accept that she's walked herself into a position where the choice is not about whether or not she does the Conservative party damage, but instead merely which option does the least damage to the Conservative party.
    May should accept she's part of the problem and request a meeting with Her Majesty ...
    I can't see her surviving past an extension (well I suppose she could if it was 2-3 months but she she couldn't survive a two year extension, IMO)
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,306
    Pulpstar said:

    Not much support for a "people's vote" in Dudley !

    Margaret Beckett is not going down well at all. And what is worse, she seems to not care...
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,489
    Pulpstar said:

    Not much support for a "people's vote" in Dudley !

    Poor old Dudley.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 43,162
    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Haven't seen much comment about this but if her deal is rejected and A50 is extended next week will Theresa May resign (as she will have totally failed on the mission she set herself when she became leader in July 2016) ?

    Surely at the point of extension the Tories will need to find a new leader who can come up with a new plan for where we go next?

    I still suspect the most likely outcome is approval of May's deal subject to confirmation in a referendum; in which case she would not resign until after the referendum.
    Theresa May will never agree to another referendum as there wouldn't be a Conservative Party left at the end of it...
    So what do you expect to happen? It is abundantly clear that parliament will never approve the WA as it stands, and that the EU will not make significant changes that might change that. Even our tribal politicians are going to have to act at some point, and May is incapable of choosing an option which commands majority support.
    I would say probably a long extension is agreed (couple of years) Theresa May resigns in failure and a new Con leader is elected who then holds a general election with a new plan (managed No Deal, Canada+++, call the whole thing off etc)

    What the result of that general election would be... Who knows!
    Gods save us from that. Whats to stop a new plan by whoever wins not working out great either, then parliament refusing all options again and so let's hold another election for a new plan on what to do?

    I do think a long extension is where we are headed though, and ultimately remain. Extension is the easiest option for people who don't want any of the biggest options - no deal, deal or referendum - and can be supported by some of those supporting those options as they can hope they will succeed as a result of it, so it is the only thing that will probably get a majority right now. But I struggle to see how leave gets stronger after being forced into a delay because the deal was so crap. It's an admission 2 years was wasted, which immediately begs the question why more time will help.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,489
    Dominic Raab put his hand up to step up to the plate.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 10,962
    edited March 7
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:



    I just don't think she has anything left at all.

    Thats been true since she pulled the vote before Christmas. 2 months wasted.
    That was early December, we're now in March. 3 months wasted.
    Yes, 3 months of Groundhog Day.

    Why would the EU extend for simply more of the same?
    The same isn't particularly bad - their businesses can trade and their citizens can travel and live where they like. The British are still paying their dues and following the rules, but everyone can basically ignore them when spending the money and making the rules. The uncertainty is bad for everyone, but it has some upsides, like British businesses gradually draining into other EU countries.

    But what would be bad would be creating uncertainty around the Euro elections, so I'd expect them to insist on the deadline either being very short, so the next extension is decided or definitively off well in advance, or very long, so it's clear the UK needs to elect MEPs.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 43,162

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Haven't seen much comment about this but if her deal is rejected and A50 is extended next week will Theresa May resign (as she will have totally failed on the mission she set herself when she became leader in July 2016) ?

    Surely at the point of extension the Tories will need to find a new leader who can come up with a new plan for where we go next?

    I still suspect the most likely outcome is approval of May's deal subject to confirmation in a referendum; in which case she would not resign until after the referendum.
    Theresa May will never agree to another referendum as there wouldn't be a Conservative Party left at the end of it...
    May has to accept that she's walked herself into a position where the choice is not about whether or not she does the Conservative party damage, but instead merely which option does the least damage to the Conservative party.
    May should accept she's part of the problem and request a meeting with Her Majesty ...
    Sure, but who does she tell HM who she should call as her replacement? It's not even a question of who would be better, because at this point the list of ones who are not even worth considering as likely better options is very slim indeed (comprising such luminaries as Chris Williamson, Andrew Bridgen and such), but none of the alternatives on any side of the house has a reliable majority on the major issue of the day.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,489
    Meanwhile another panellist says we have to move fast with a delay.

    Question Time really is piss poor.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 19,136
    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Haven't seen much comment about this but if her deal is rejected and A50 is extended next week will Theresa May resign (as she will have totally failed on the mission she set herself when she became leader in July 2016) ?

    Surely at the point of extension the Tories will need to find a new leader who can come up with a new plan for where we go next?

    I still suspect the most likely outcome is approval of May's deal subject to confirmation in a referendum; in which case she would not resign until after the referendum.
    Theresa May will never agree to another referendum as there wouldn't be a Conservative Party left at the end of it...
    So what do you expect to happen? It is abundantly clear that parliament will never approve the WA as it stands, and that the EU will not make significant changes that might change that. Even our tribal politicians are going to have to act at some point, and May is incapable of choosing an option which commands majority support.
    I would say probably a long extension is agreed (couple of years) Theresa May resigns in failure and a new Con leader is elected who then holds a general election with a new plan (managed No Deal, Canada+++, call the whole thing off etc)

    What the result of that general election would be... Who knows!
    Gods save us from that. Whats to stop a new plan by whoever wins not working out great either, then parliament refusing all options again and so let's hold another election for a new plan on what to do?

    I do think a long extension is where we are headed though, and ultimately remain. Extension is the easiest option for people who don't want any of the biggest options - no deal, deal or referendum - and can be supported by some of those supporting those options as they can hope they will succeed as a result of it, so it is the only thing that will probably get a majority right now. But I struggle to see how leave gets stronger after being forced into a delay because the deal was so crap. It's an admission 2 years was wasted, which immediately begs the question why more time will help.
    Do you think that May's government has had the Wisdom of Solomon? Do you think it has used the time we had as effectively as it could? Negotiated as smartly as it could?

    Or do you think this could have been done better?

    If the former, more time is pointless. If the latter, more time gives us a do-over. Call this a Mulligan and try again.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,265
    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Haven't seen much comment about this but if her deal is rejected and A50 is extended next week will Theresa May resign (as she will have totally failed on the mission she set herself when she became leader in July 2016) ?

    Surely at the point of extension the Tories will need to find a new leader who can come up with a new plan for where we go next?

    I still suspect the most likely outcome is approval of May's deal subject to confirmation in a referendum; in which case she would not resign until after the referendum.
    Theresa May will never agree to another referendum as there wouldn't be a Conservative Party left at the end of it...
    So what do you expect to happen? It is abundantly clear that parliament will never approve the WA as it stands, and that the EU will not make significant changes that might change that. Even our tribal politicians are going to have to act at some point, and May is incapable of choosing an option which commands majority support.
    I would say probably a long extension is agreed (couple of years) Theresa May resigns in failure and a new Con leader is elected who then holds a general election with a new plan (managed No Deal, Canada+++, call the whole thing off etc)

    What the result of that general election would be... Who knows!
    Gods save us from that. Whats to stop a new plan by whoever wins not working out great either, then parliament refusing all options again and so let's hold another election for a new plan on what to do?

    Absolutely nothing to stop us from ending up exactly where we are now after another general election... But elections tend to be how we sort things out in this country (much more so than refernedums)

    The deal is rejected. A50 is extended. May resigns in failure. Con has a leadership election (that will be a total bloodbath by the way) with a fresh general election on a new plan in the Summer or Autumn looks the most likely scenario to me if her deal is voted down next week.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 43,162
    edited March 7
    Jonathan said:

    Meanwhile another panellist says we have to move fast with a delay.

    Question Time really is piss poor.

    If it accurately reflects the quality of our politics is it actually really good though?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,265
    edited March 7
    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Haven't seen much comment about this but if her deal is rejected and A50 is extended next week will Theresa May resign (as she will have totally failed on the mission she set herself when she became leader in July 2016) ?

    Surely at the point of extension the Tories will need to find a new leader who can come up with a new plan for where we go next?

    I still suspect the most likely outcome is approval of May's deal subject to confirmation in a referendum; in which case she would not resign until after the referendum.
    Theresa May will never agree to another referendum as there wouldn't be a Conservative Party left at the end of it...
    May has to accept that she's walked herself into a position where the choice is not about whether or not she does the Conservative party damage, but instead merely which option does the least damage to the Conservative party.
    May should accept she's part of the problem and request a meeting with Her Majesty ...
    Sure, but who does she tell HM who she should call as her replacement?
    As is usual in this country Theresa May would stand down as Con leader, trigger a leadership contest and remain as PM until the new leader takes over the Conservative Party.

    Only then would she resign as PM.... I mean we've not had a PM who just walked out the door and drove off into the sunset without anything being sorted out first since Eden. ;)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 43,162



    Do you think that May's government has had the Wisdom of Solomon? Do you think it has used the time we had as effectively as it could? Negotiated as smartly as it could?

    Or do you think this could have been done better?

    If the former, more time is pointless. If the latter, more time gives us a do-over. Call this a Mulligan and try again.

    Whether someone else with a different plan could have done better I do not know, but I don't think 'starting over' is really starting over. Attitudes on both sides have hardened after two years of time wasting bollocks and acrimony. It's not really starting from scratch, and I suspect that even an approach that might have been have worked if adopted at the start, would not be effective now. So I do believe it is largely pointless to drag this out. If it must be no deal, or remain, let that happen now, not after a long delay. And as I believe you have suggested, even deciding remain now does not mean we could not try again if the country really still wants to go again. And it buys us even more time than a delay, since we can delay A50 as long as we want.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 10,962
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Haven't seen much comment about this but if her deal is rejected and A50 is extended next week will Theresa May resign (as she will have totally failed on the mission she set herself when she became leader in July 2016) ?

    Surely at the point of extension the Tories will need to find a new leader who can come up with a new plan for where we go next?

    I still suspect the most likely outcome is approval of May's deal subject to confirmation in a referendum; in which case she would not resign until after the referendum.
    Theresa May will never agree to another referendum as there wouldn't be a Conservative Party left at the end of it...
    Sure there would. If Leave won everything would carry on as before, and if Leave lost the party would be united in a state of perpetual grievance, which is how it likes to roll.

    Right now the attention is all on the meta-question of whether there should be a vote, but once you decide you're having the vote the attention all moves to the actual substantive question of Leave vs Remain, which the Tories now mostly agree with each other on.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 43,162

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:



    I just don't think she has anything left at all.

    Thats been true since she pulled the vote before Christmas. 2 months wasted.
    That was early December, we're now in March. 3 months wasted.
    Yes, 3 months of Groundhog Day.

    Why would the EU extend for simply more of the same?
    The same isn't particularly bad - their businesses can trade and their citizens can travel and live where they like. The British are still paying their dues and following the rules, but everyone can basically ignore them when spending the money and making the rules. The uncertainty is bad for everyone, but it has some upsides, like British businesses gradually draining into other EU countries.

    But what would be bad would be creating uncertainty around the Euro elections, so I'd expect them to insist on the deadline either being very short, so the next extension is decided or definitively off well in advance, or very long, so it's clear the UK needs to elect MEPs.
    Yes indeed. Which of course is why very long is preferred, since how to ensure we actually come to a decision in a very short extension, as if we do not the issue of MEPs becomes even more immediate and impossible to deal with.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 5,282
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:



    I just don't think she has anything left at all.

    Thats been true since she pulled the vote before Christmas. 2 months wasted.
    That was early December, we're now in March. 3 months wasted.
    Yes, 3 months of Groundhog Day.

    Why would the EU extend for simply more of the same?
    I hope they don't but I fear that they too would like the easy way out of buying more time for faffing about - however much they are not going to cave, and however much they say they are ready for no deal, they keep entertaining our apparently stupid attempts to renegotiate, when they could stop asking for us to come up with new ideas and walk away. Even if they are indeed ready for no deal, they might still extend, particularly if they think we will remain.
    No point in a short extension though, I reckon on 21 months.
    Didn't K Clarke suggest 5 years? In fact if Leave had said immediately after the referendum 'Thanks Folks, give us five years and we'll be able to organise a departure to the EU that will be safe, sensible and which we can recommend as being in the best interests of the country' that would have been entirely reasonable and practical. A lot of Remainers would have signed up to that too.

    Compared to the shitshambles we have...……..let me out of here.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,489
    They will be teaching Brexit for years to come. The ultimate case of ask a stupid question get a stupid answer.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 8,214
    edited March 7



    I just don't think she has anything left at all.

    Here is a reconstruction of the meeting between May and the negotiators.




  • ChrisChris Posts: 2,376

    Chris said:



    I just don't think she has anything left at all.

    Theresa May got EU leaders in November to say that this is the only deal possible in order to help her sell it. Now she tells them they have to change the deal to help her sell it.

    Why should they trust that she can sell any deal at all?
    She can't. She couldn't sell water to a dying man in a desert.

    But MPs can. MPs have said themselves what it will take to get a deal. Unfortunately MPs have given the EU two stark choices.

    Option 1: Drop the backstop and the Deal can be ratified. No deal averted. Parliament has voted for this in principle already.

    Option 2: Don't drop the backstop, the Deal will be rejected and an extension will be requested. No deal will be averted and the EU can demand what it likes as the price for an extension. Parliament has made it clear this is what will be done to avoid No Deal.

    Given those 2 options, which will the EU go for I wonder? Hmmm ...
    What I'd do in the EU's situation is say that the UK can have a two-month extension provided the deal passes the Commons first. Otherwise there's no point.
    That assumes the EU would prefer No Deal over dragging this on. They don't.

    What the EU wants is the deal ratified. The last thing the EU wants is No Deal. The second-last thing the EU wants is to compromise. The third-last the EU wants is this dragging on.

    What the EU wants it can't get. Better to compromise than see no deal, but better to let this drag on than to compromise since we won't go to No Deal.
    Well, a lot of them don't seem at all keen on it dragging on after the European elections.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,306

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Haven't seen much comment about this but if her deal is rejected and A50 is extended next week will Theresa May resign (as she will have totally failed on the mission she set herself when she became leader in July 2016) ?

    Surely at the point of extension the Tories will need to find a new leader who can come up with a new plan for where we go next?

    I still suspect the most likely outcome is approval of May's deal subject to confirmation in a referendum; in which case she would not resign until after the referendum.
    Theresa May will never agree to another referendum as there wouldn't be a Conservative Party left at the end of it...
    Sure there would. If Leave won everything would carry on as before, and if Leave lost the party would be united in a state of perpetual grievance, which is how it likes to roll.

    Right now the attention is all on the meta-question of whether there should be a vote, but once you decide you're having the vote the attention all moves to the actual substantive question of Leave vs Remain, which the Tories now mostly agree with each other on.
    A second referendum is a minority pursuit. Its about as popular as squash, or badminton, from what I can see.

    It isn't going to happen.
  • dotsdots Posts: 615
    kle4 said:
    Thank God for the Daily Mail, sighs Crobyn. No more humiliations after this one.

    The new editor of the Mail really is shit. A newspaper has rarely gone from readable to unreadable as quickly as this.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 8,214
    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Haven't seen much comment about this but if her deal is rejected and A50 is extended next week will Theresa May resign (as she will have totally failed on the mission she set herself when she became leader in July 2016) ?

    Surely at the point of extension the Tories will need to find a new leader who can come up with a new plan for where we go next?

    I still suspect the most likely outcome is approval of May's deal subject to confirmation in a referendum; in which case she would not resign until after the referendum.
    Theresa May will never agree to another referendum as there wouldn't be a Conservative Party left at the end of it...
    May has to accept that she's walked herself into a position where the choice is not about whether or not she does the Conservative party damage, but instead merely which option does the least damage to the Conservative party.
    May should accept she's part of the problem and request a meeting with Her Majesty ...
    Sure, but who does she tell HM who she should call as her replacement?
    As is usual in this country Theresa May would stand down as Con leader, trigger a leadership contest and remain as PM until the new leader takes over the Conservative Party.

    Only then would she resign as PM.... I mean we've not had a PM who just walked out the door and drove off into the sunset without anything being sorted out first since Eden. ;)
    Wilson?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 19,136
    kle4 said:



    Do you think that May's government has had the Wisdom of Solomon? Do you think it has used the time we had as effectively as it could? Negotiated as smartly as it could?

    Or do you think this could have been done better?

    If the former, more time is pointless. If the latter, more time gives us a do-over. Call this a Mulligan and try again.

    Whether someone else with a different plan could have done better I do not know, but I don't think 'starting over' is really starting over. Attitudes on both sides have hardened after two years of time wasting bollocks and acrimony. It's not really starting from scratch, and I suspect that even an approach that might have been have worked if adopted at the start, would not be effective now. So I do believe it is largely pointless to drag this out. If it must be no deal, or remain, let that happen now, not after a long delay. And as I believe you have suggested, even deciding remain now does not mean we could not try again if the country really still wants to go again. And it buys us even more time than a delay, since we can delay A50 as long as we want.
    If its to be remain or no deal, who is to determine that? I don't think it would be appropriate for May to determine whether it is remain or no deal.

    If there is an election there is a chance to break the impasse. Attitudes are hard now too because there's a lack of trust and time.

    My proposal for a while has been to extend to what would have been the end of the transition and try to negotiate during that time, with a new leader. A new leader will be given space to try for something and the time will be there to talk properly. If it becomes clear it will be deal or no deal we can go for that by the end of what would have been the transition anyway.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 5,148
    dots said:

    kle4 said:
    Thank God for the Daily Mail, sighs Crobyn. No more humiliations after this one.

    The new editor of the Mail really is shit. A newspaper has rarely gone from readable to unreadable as quickly as this.
    Disagree. Mail superior since Dacre moved on
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 4,367

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Haven't seen much comment about this but if her deal is rejected and A50 is extended next week will Theresa May resign (as she will have totally failed on the mission she set herself when she became leader in July 2016) ?

    Surely at the point of extension the Tories will need to find a new leader who can come up with a new plan for where we go next?

    I still suspect the most likely outcome is approval of May's deal subject to confirmation in a referendum; in which case she would not resign until after the referendum.
    Theresa May will never agree to another referendum as there wouldn't be a Conservative Party left at the end of it...
    May has to accept that she's walked herself into a position where the choice is not about whether or not she does the Conservative party damage, but instead merely which option does the least damage to the Conservative party.
    May should accept she's part of the problem and request a meeting with Her Majesty ...
    Given her track record however, they would fail to come to an arrangement and arrange a series of exploratory talks...
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 19,136
    Chris said:

    Chris said:



    I just don't think she has anything left at all.

    Theresa May got EU leaders in November to say that this is the only deal possible in order to help her sell it. Now she tells them they have to change the deal to help her sell it.

    Why should they trust that she can sell any deal at all?
    She can't. She couldn't sell water to a dying man in a desert.

    But MPs can. MPs have said themselves what it will take to get a deal. Unfortunately MPs have given the EU two stark choices.

    Option 1: Drop the backstop and the Deal can be ratified. No deal averted. Parliament has voted for this in principle already.

    Option 2: Don't drop the backstop, the Deal will be rejected and an extension will be requested. No deal will be averted and the EU can demand what it likes as the price for an extension. Parliament has made it clear this is what will be done to avoid No Deal.

    Given those 2 options, which will the EU go for I wonder? Hmmm ...
    What I'd do in the EU's situation is say that the UK can have a two-month extension provided the deal passes the Commons first. Otherwise there's no point.
    That assumes the EU would prefer No Deal over dragging this on. They don't.

    What the EU wants is the deal ratified. The last thing the EU wants is No Deal. The second-last thing the EU wants is to compromise. The third-last the EU wants is this dragging on.

    What the EU wants it can't get. Better to compromise than see no deal, but better to let this drag on than to compromise since we won't go to No Deal.
    Well, a lot of them don't seem at all keen on it dragging on after the European elections.
    Yes they're not.

    But they're less keen on no deal, or compromising if they don't need to.

    If they really wanted this over before the European Elections they could have compromised by now.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 5,282
    edited March 7
    Jonathan said:

    They will be teaching Brexit for years to come. The ultimate case of ask a stupid question get a stupid answer.

    It wasn't a fair question.

    Do you want a) The current unsatisfactory state of affairs to continue or b) An alternative which is unattainable and won't deal with any of the problems with the current state of affairs that you don't like?

    As your Government we'd like you to opt for A but in the event of you choosing B we will pretend to implement it so that we can say we have honoured your wishes.

    Hmmmmmm……..
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 43,162
    Mortimer said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Haven't seen much comment about this but if her deal is rejected and A50 is extended next week will Theresa May resign (as she will have totally failed on the mission she set herself when she became leader in July 2016) ?

    Surely at the point of extension the Tories will need to find a new leader who can come up with a new plan for where we go next?

    I still suspect the most likely outcome is approval of May's deal subject to confirmation in a referendum; in which case she would not resign until after the referendum.
    Theresa May will never agree to another referendum as there wouldn't be a Conservative Party left at the end of it...
    Sure there would. If Leave won everything would carry on as before, and if Leave lost the party would be united in a state of perpetual grievance, which is how it likes to roll.

    Right now the attention is all on the meta-question of whether there should be a vote, but once you decide you're having the vote the attention all moves to the actual substantive question of Leave vs Remain, which the Tories now mostly agree with each other on.
    A second referendum is a minority pursuit. Its about as popular as squash, or badminton, from what I can see.
    .
    Not in parliament it isn't.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,277
    Well according to this guy we are leaving on 29/3 deal or no deal
    https://brexitcentral.com/deal-no-deal-heres-brexit-cannot-stopped/
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 18,138

    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Haven't seen much comment about this but if her deal is rejected and A50 is extended next week will Theresa May resign (as she will have totally failed on the mission she set herself when she became leader in July 2016) ?

    Surely at the point of extension the Tories will need to find a new leader who can come up with a new plan for where we go next?

    I still suspect the most likely outcome is approval of May's deal subject to confirmation in a referendum; in which case she would not resign until after the referendum.
    Theresa May will never agree to another referendum as there wouldn't be a Conservative Party left at the end of it...
    So what do you expect to happen? It is abundantly clear that parliament will never approve the WA as it stands, and that the EU will not make significant changes that might change that. Even our tribal politicians are going to have to act at some point, and May is incapable of choosing an option which commands majority support.
    I would say probably a long extension is agreed (couple of years) Theresa May resigns in failure and a new Con leader is elected who then holds a general election with a new plan (managed No Deal, Canada+++, call the whole thing off etc)

    What the result of that general election would be... Who knows!
    Gods save us from that. Whats to stop a new plan by whoever wins not working out great either, then parliament refusing all options again and so let's hold another election for a new plan on what to do?

    I do think a long extension is where we are headed though, and ultimately remain. Extension is the easiest option for people who don't want any of the biggest options - no deal, deal or referendum - and can be supported by some of those supporting those options as they can hope they will succeed as a result of it, so it is the only thing that will probably get a majority right now. But I struggle to see how leave gets stronger after being forced into a delay because the deal was so crap. It's an admission 2 years was wasted, which immediately begs the question why more time will help.
    Do you think that May's government has had the Wisdom of Solomon? Do you think it has used the time we had as effectively as it could? Negotiated as smartly as it could?

    Or do you think this could have been done better?

    If the former, more time is pointless. If the latter, more time gives us a do-over. Call this a Mulligan and try again.
    Never going to happen. Once we get into long postponements it is over.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,306
    kle4 said:

    Mortimer said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Haven't seen much comment about this but if her deal is rejected and A50 is extended next week will Theresa May resign (as she will have totally failed on the mission she set herself when she became leader in July 2016) ?

    Surely at the point of extension the Tories will need to find a new leader who can come up with a new plan for where we go next?

    I still suspect the most likely outcome is approval of May's deal subject to confirmation in a referendum; in which case she would not resign until after the referendum.
    Theresa May will never agree to another referendum as there wouldn't be a Conservative Party left at the end of it...
    Sure there would. If Leave won everything would carry on as before, and if Leave lost the party would be united in a state of perpetual grievance, which is how it likes to roll.

    Right now the attention is all on the meta-question of whether there should be a vote, but once you decide you're having the vote the attention all moves to the actual substantive question of Leave vs Remain, which the Tories now mostly agree with each other on.
    A second referendum is a minority pursuit. Its about as popular as squash, or badminton, from what I can see.
    .
    Not in parliament it isn't.
    Analysis from those in the know suggests no majority for it.

    It ain't gonna happen.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,384



    I just don't think she has anything left at all.

    Theresa May got EU leaders in November to say that this is the only deal possible in order to help her sell it. Now she tells them they have to change the deal to help her sell it.

    Why should they trust that she can sell any deal at all?
    She is a once-in-a-generation pathological liar. I think the EU worked this out quite early on in the game and are now just waiting for some political upheaval in the UK to give them somebody else with whom they can work.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 51,299
    Jonathan said:

    Meanwhile another panellist says we have to move fast with a delay.

    Question Time really is piss poor.

    What a shockingly poor panel that was.
  • Manafort sentencing incoming at any moment, if you're following these cases.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,265
    viewcode said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Haven't seen much comment about this but if her deal is rejected and A50 is extended next week will Theresa May resign (as she will have totally failed on the mission she set herself when she became leader in July 2016) ?

    Surely at the point of extension the Tories will need to find a new leader who can come up with a new plan for where we go next?

    I still suspect the most likely outcome is approval of May's deal subject to confirmation in a referendum; in which case she would not resign until after the referendum.
    Theresa May will never agree to another referendum as there wouldn't be a Conservative Party left at the end of it...
    May has to accept that she's walked herself into a position where the choice is not about whether or not she does the Conservative party damage, but instead merely which option does the least damage to the Conservative party.
    May should accept she's part of the problem and request a meeting with Her Majesty ...
    Sure, but who does she tell HM who she should call as her replacement?
    As is usual in this country Theresa May would stand down as Con leader, trigger a leadership contest and remain as PM until the new leader takes over the Conservative Party.

    Only then would she resign as PM.... I mean we've not had a PM who just walked out the door and drove off into the sunset without anything being sorted out first since Eden. ;)
    Wilson?
    Wilson was still PM while Labour elected a new leader.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 5,282
    Mortimer said:

    kle4 said:

    Mortimer said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Haven't seen much comment about this but if her deal is rejected and A50 is extended next week will Theresa May resign (as she will have totally failed on the mission she set herself when she became leader in July 2016) ?

    Surely at the point of extension the Tories will need to find a new leader who can come up with a new plan for where we go next?

    I still suspect the most likely outcome is approval of May's deal subject to confirmation in a referendum; in which case she would not resign until after the referendum.
    Theresa May will never agree to another referendum as there wouldn't be a Conservative Party left at the end of it...
    Sure there would. If Leave won everything would carry on as before, and if Leave lost the party would be united in a state of perpetual grievance, which is how it likes to roll.

    Right now the attention is all on the meta-question of whether there should be a vote, but once you decide you're having the vote the attention all moves to the actual substantive question of Leave vs Remain, which the Tories now mostly agree with each other on.
    A second referendum is a minority pursuit. Its about as popular as squash, or badminton, from what I can see.
    .
    Not in parliament it isn't.
    Analysis from those in the know suggests no majority for it.

    It ain't gonna happen.
    Yes, I believe that is so. Support for a 2nd Ref falls short of a majority in Parliament.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 8,214
    GIN1138 said:

    viewcode said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Haven't seen much comment about this but if her deal is rejected and A50 is extended next week will Theresa May resign (as she will have totally failed on the mission she set herself when she became leader in July 2016) ?

    Surely at the point of extension the Tories will need to find a new leader who can come up with a new plan for where we go next?

    I still suspect the most likely outcome is approval of May's deal subject to confirmation in a referendum; in which case she would not resign until after the referendum.
    Theresa May will never agree to another referendum as there wouldn't be a Conservative Party left at the end of it...
    May has to accept that she's walked herself into a position where the choice is not about whether or not she does the Conservative party damage, but instead merely which option does the least damage to the Conservative party.
    May should accept she's part of the problem and request a meeting with Her Majesty ...
    Sure, but who does she tell HM who she should call as her replacement?
    As is usual in this country Theresa May would stand down as Con leader, trigger a leadership contest and remain as PM until the new leader takes over the Conservative Party.

    Only then would she resign as PM.... I mean we've not had a PM who just walked out the door and drove off into the sunset without anything being sorted out first since Eden. ;)
    Wilson?
    Wilson was still PM while Labour elected a new leader.
    Ah, thank you.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 8,462
    Very clear summary of where the negotiations are with the EU from their chief negotiator, Sabine Weyand.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 53,586
    Pulpstar said:

    Not much support for a "people's vote" in Dudley !

    Dudley voted 67% Leave, 15% more than the UK average, so no surprise there

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 43,162
    Mortimer said:

    kle4 said:

    Mortimer said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Haven't seen much comment about this but if her deal is rejected and A50 is extended next week will Theresa May resign (as she will have totally failed on the mission she set herself when she became leader in July 2016) ?

    Surely at the point of extension the Tories will need to find a new leader who can come up with a new plan for where we go next?

    I still suspect the most likely outcome is approval of May's deal subject to confirmation in a referendum; in which case she would not resign until after the referendum.
    Theresa May will never agree to another referendum as there wouldn't be a Conservative Party left at the end of it...
    Sure there would. If Leave won everything would carry on as before, and if Leave lost the party would be united in a state of perpetual grievance, which is how it likes to roll.

    Right now the attention is all on the meta-question of whether there should be a vote, but once you decide you're having the vote the attention all moves to the actual substantive question of Leave vs Remain, which the Tories now mostly agree with each other on.
    A second referendum is a minority pursuit. Its about as popular as squash, or badminton, from what I can see.
    .
    Not in parliament it isn't.
    Analysis from those in the know suggests no majority for it.

    It ain't gonna happen.
    Someone will break. Given a referendum gives at least two sides a chance at success, it seems pretty plausible people will break to that option rather than break to the deal or no deal without a referendum.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 19,136
    kjohnw said:

    Well according to this guy we are leaving on 29/3 deal or no deal
    https://brexitcentral.com/deal-no-deal-heres-brexit-cannot-stopped/

    He's wrong.

    He's wrong on so many points.

    Firstly we wouldn't have to negotiate with the EU to convert an extension into Remaining. If we decide to Remain we revoke end of story.

    Secondly getting an extension agreed from the EU is unlikely to be difficult, though it won't be free probably. They've already all but said they're waiting for that request now.

    Thirdly it won't be difficult to get an extension voted through by Parliament. In fact once they've done that on the 14th it's a formality quickly wrapped up.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 53,586
    edited March 7
    kjohnw said:

    Well according to this guy we are leaving on 29/3 deal or no deal
    https://brexitcentral.com/deal-no-deal-heres-brexit-cannot-stopped/

    'In short, don’t panic: if MPs hold their nerve, we are leaving the EU on 29th March without a permanent backstop.'

    If the last few months have taught us anything, it is that MPs are guaranteed NOT to hold their nerve!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 25,587
    edited March 7
    GIN1138 said:

    Haven't seen much comment about this but if her deal is rejected and A50 is extended next week will Theresa May resign (as she will have totally failed on the mission she set herself when she became leader in July 2016) ?

    Surely at the point of extension the Tories will need to find a new leader who can come up with a new plan for where we go next?

    I don't think she's going to resign whatever happens, and Tory MPs can't attempt to change the leadership for another 9 months.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 43,162
    HYUFD said:

    kjohnw said:

    Well according to this guy we are leaving on 29/3 deal or no deal
    https://brexitcentral.com/deal-no-deal-heres-brexit-cannot-stopped/

    'In short, don’t panic: if MPs hold their nerve, we are leaving the EU on 29th March without a permanent backstop.'

    If the last few months have taught us anything, it is that MPs are guaranteed NOT to hold their nerve!
    I'm not convinced that lot can even hold their bladders, let alone their nerve.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 19,136



    Never going to happen. Once we get into long postponements it is over.

    Then it's over.

    By this time next week Parliament will have voted for an extension.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 8,214
    kjohnw said:

    Well according to this guy we are leaving on 29/3 deal or no deal
    https://brexitcentral.com/deal-no-deal-heres-brexit-cannot-stopped/

    At the bottom of the article there is a handy flowchart. The yellowy and salmony parts of that flowchart give two routes by which we do not leave on 29/3/2019.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 19,136
    AndyJS said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Haven't seen much comment about this but if her deal is rejected and A50 is extended next week will Theresa May resign (as she will have totally failed on the mission she set herself when she became leader in July 2016) ?

    Surely at the point of extension the Tories will need to find a new leader who can come up with a new plan for where we go next?

    I don't think she's going to resign whatever happens, and Tory MPs can't attempt to change the leadership for another 9 months.
    Cabinet can tell her it's time to go though.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 19,136
    A lengthy extension with May as PM is pointless.
This discussion has been closed.