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  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    viewcode said:

    Rentoul’s “trilemma spreadsheet”, updated today, still has May’s Deal going through 320-310.

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ELogQ8s_jdy55R2KAyvg5CDaFM3jVf_FiA7-TVbDL1I/mobilebasic

    But May needs the DUP, 30 Labour votes, and to keep ERG refuseniks to 30 odd.

    Each of those conditions currently look unlikely to me. I’m tipping - cos someone has to start somewhere - that May will lose 300-330.
    The deal is not going through this week. Ayes will be south of 250 IMO.
    Can anyone name an MP who voted against the deal in January and has publicly committed to voting for it this week?
    Graham Brady?
    I think that was still conditional on Cox being satisfied.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    viewcode said:

    Who is Marcus Antonius?

    "I made her – and I can break her."

    image
    Why does he look like he's four foot tall in that photograph?
    And wearing a novelty Alice band with flags attached?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    edited March 2019
    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    "UK realising EU is dominant power in Europe and Brexit will be on its terms"

    https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/uk-realising-eu-is-dominant-power-in-europe-and-brexit-will-be-on-its-terms-1.3818132

    The European response to the UK’s exit is very revealing about the nature of the union at it approaches the third decade of the 21st century. It is a political community with some state-like characteristics not just an arena for transacting business, although it is a formidable negotiating machine.

    It is far more like a state than a souped-up regional UN. The EU has hard power and deploys that power to pursue its interests and safeguard itself when faced with an existential threat.

    This should have been clear to everyone from the start. Brexit is a choice to abandon influence overseas for more power at home. It is the same choice any independence movement makes.

    We will be Europe’s Canada. There is no disgrace in that, and few Canadians wish to be absorbed into their southern neighbour.
    The UK has got a bit to do to to match Canada on immigrants as a percentage of total population (non EU of course), but we're definitely catching up.
    If only Scotland were more appealing, we’d get there!
    Not many want to move to a colony
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Foxy said:

    Tim Shipman thinks the contenders are Johnson, Javid, Hunt and Raab?

    I suspect the next Tory leader won't be any of those.

    Tracey Crouch?
    Kenneth Clarke.
    Dominic Grieve :)
    That would make one of my year end predictions come true so I can firmly get behind that idea.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,274

    The cabinet minister in charge of Brexit has held detailed talks with Labour MPs who are championing plans for a second referendum – amid signs of mounting desperation inside Theresa May’s government about what to do if the prime minister’s deal suffers another crushing defeat on Tuesday.

    Stephen Barclay, the Brexit secretary, called the meeting with Labour’s Peter Kyle and Phil Wilson in Downing Street last Thursday as negotiations with Brussels to resolve the deadlock over the Northern Ireland backstop floundered and ministers privately began to concede that May’s plan could be doomed.

    Kyle told the Observer yesterday that Barclay had “remained loyal to government policy”, which is to oppose any second referendum. But the MP for Hove said Barclay talked to him and Wilson for at least 45 minutes and was “fully engaged”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/09/brexit-secretary-met-pro-referendum-labour-peter-kyle-phil-wilson

    It's the obvious way out for May - get the HoC to approve her Deal subject to a Deal v Remain referendum.

    It's so blindingly obvious only someone as lacking in vision as May would have taken this long to see it.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    FF43 said:

    Rentoul’s “trilemma spreadsheet”, updated today, still has May’s Deal going through 320-310.

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ELogQ8s_jdy55R2KAyvg5CDaFM3jVf_FiA7-TVbDL1I/mobilebasic

    But May needs the DUP, 30 Labour votes, and to keep ERG refuseniks to 30 odd.

    Each of those conditions currently look unlikely to me. I’m tipping - cos someone has to start somewhere - that May will lose 300-330.
    The deal is not going through this week. Ayes will be south of 250 IMO.
    Surely even Theresa May has to give up if she loses again by that sort of margin. But realistically the WA will have to go through at some point if we are going to leave the EU. I don't see can kicking working indefinitely either. We're either in or we're not.
    There is the default legal option of "no deal" exit of course.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,061

    The cabinet minister in charge of Brexit has held detailed talks with Labour MPs who are championing plans for a second referendum – amid signs of mounting desperation inside Theresa May’s government about what to do if the prime minister’s deal suffers another crushing defeat on Tuesday.

    Stephen Barclay, the Brexit secretary, called the meeting with Labour’s Peter Kyle and Phil Wilson in Downing Street last Thursday as negotiations with Brussels to resolve the deadlock over the Northern Ireland backstop floundered and ministers privately began to concede that May’s plan could be doomed.

    Kyle told the Observer yesterday that Barclay had “remained loyal to government policy”, which is to oppose any second referendum. But the MP for Hove said Barclay talked to him and Wilson for at least 45 minutes and was “fully engaged”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/09/brexit-secretary-met-pro-referendum-labour-peter-kyle-phil-wilson

    The Deal would pass either with agreement of permanent CA as per Labour, or a second binding referendum. I cannot see it otherwise.

    Either might cause May some local difficulties.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    edited March 2019
    Telegraph:

    "It came as 74 senior Tory activists, including more than 50 association chairman, told Mrs May that Conservative voters "do not fear a no deal exit" and "just want Brexit delivered."

    Madness. Utter madness.

    If even just from a self interest point of view. No Deal chaos will put Tories out of power for a generation and give us a full-blown marxist-socialist government.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,274

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1104506242683363328

    A lot of public are about to be upset then.

    Is that a headline from June 2016?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,061

    FF43 said:

    Rentoul’s “trilemma spreadsheet”, updated today, still has May’s Deal going through 320-310.

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ELogQ8s_jdy55R2KAyvg5CDaFM3jVf_FiA7-TVbDL1I/mobilebasic

    But May needs the DUP, 30 Labour votes, and to keep ERG refuseniks to 30 odd.

    Each of those conditions currently look unlikely to me. I’m tipping - cos someone has to start somewhere - that May will lose 300-330.
    The deal is not going through this week. Ayes will be south of 250 IMO.
    Surely even Theresa May has to give up if she loses again by that sort of margin. But realistically the WA will have to go through at some point if we are going to leave the EU. I don't see can kicking working indefinitely either. We're either in or we're not.
    There is the default legal option of "no deal" exit of course.

    Pretty certain that our sovereign parliament would vote against.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276

    The cabinet minister in charge of Brexit has held detailed talks with Labour MPs who are championing plans for a second referendum – amid signs of mounting desperation inside Theresa May’s government about what to do if the prime minister’s deal suffers another crushing defeat on Tuesday.

    Stephen Barclay, the Brexit secretary, called the meeting with Labour’s Peter Kyle and Phil Wilson in Downing Street last Thursday as negotiations with Brussels to resolve the deadlock over the Northern Ireland backstop floundered and ministers privately began to concede that May’s plan could be doomed.

    Kyle told the Observer yesterday that Barclay had “remained loyal to government policy”, which is to oppose any second referendum. But the MP for Hove said Barclay talked to him and Wilson for at least 45 minutes and was “fully engaged”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/09/brexit-secretary-met-pro-referendum-labour-peter-kyle-phil-wilson

    It's the obvious way out for May - get the HoC to approve her Deal subject to a Deal v Remain referendum.

    It's so blindingly obvious only someone as lacking in vision as May would have taken this long to see it.
    She may get it through the HOC, but it'll destroy her party forever, and what rises from the ashes will be a quite ugly creature.

    You can't give the public a choice between what they've already rejected and deal almost everyone agrees is crap
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723

    Telegraph:

    "It came as 74 senior Tory activists, including more than 50 association chairman, told Mrs May that Conservative voters "do not fear a no deal exit" and "just want Brexit delivered."

    Madness. Utter madness.

    If even just from a self interest point of view. No Deal chaos will put Tories out of power for a generation and give us a full-blown marxist-socialist government.

    Hurrah for Tory activists/association Chairs.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    Telegraph:

    "It came as 74 senior Tory activists, including more than 50 association chairman, told Mrs May that Conservative voters "do not fear a no deal exit" and "just want Brexit delivered."

    Madness. Utter madness.

    If even just from a self interest point of view. No Deal chaos will put Tories out of power for a generation and give us a full-blown marxist-socialist government.

    Given most Tory voters are Leavers, revoking Article 50 and Brexit is more likely to lead to a Corbyn government than No Deal as large numbers of Leavers could defect to Farage's new Brexit Party and UKIP. However Brexit with a Deal is better than No Deal longer term for the Tories
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,231

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:
    All withdrawn from service...
    The sixties were fifty years ago. So your point was pointless.

    However, interestingly Tornado is still in service, although only just. Have a guess on which day it is due to go out of service. (It's a coincidence, but a poignant one).
    "The planned final flight of an RAF Tornado is 14 March 2019 during the disbandment parade of No. IX (B) Squadron and No. 31 Squadron.[260]"
    Wikipedia[1] says March 29 2019 date as the formal OSD (out of service date), but this[2] says March 31st. Could be wrong. I thought the co-incidence of Tonka retirement and Brexit date was too poignant not to mention.

    It wasn't a bad little aircraft. Never glamorous, but it was sturdy and could deliver bangy things from point A to point B with some reliability. It had a propensity to fly into sand dunes during gulf war 1, but it was good enough and in a field where quite a few things are not even that, that's a thing. It was far easier to maintain than the Lightning (the old one, not the new US one) as you could drop the engines straight out, the pilots loved it, it was a truck. The ground attack version was good, the air defence variant was (after a shit-ton of money was thrown at it) eventually good. It'll be missed.

    [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_United_Kingdom_military_aircraft
    [2] http://www.airheadjourno.com/the-royal-air-force-and-the-panavia-tornado-going-out-fighting/
    An ex-USAF ex-colleague reckoned the sand dune collisions happened because the RAF was still using WW2 tactics of flying under German radar across flat Holland to drop dumb bombs on cows within 10 or 20 miles of their intended target. I do not know if that is fair but certainly he was not greatly impressed by our military support.
    Well if he wasn't impressed he should have used his own airfield denial weaponry. Honestly, you turn up, you fly at low level, you occasionally go splat. Are people grateful? No, it's all lah-de-dah we-were-expecting-you-to-come-back. Honestly, some people... :)
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,543

    FF43 said:

    Rentoul’s “trilemma spreadsheet”, updated today, still has May’s Deal going through 320-310.

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ELogQ8s_jdy55R2KAyvg5CDaFM3jVf_FiA7-TVbDL1I/mobilebasic

    But May needs the DUP, 30 Labour votes, and to keep ERG refuseniks to 30 odd.

    Each of those conditions currently look unlikely to me. I’m tipping - cos someone has to start somewhere - that May will lose 300-330.
    The deal is not going through this week. Ayes will be south of 250 IMO.
    Surely even Theresa May has to give up if she loses again by that sort of margin. But realistically the WA will have to go through at some point if we are going to leave the EU. I don't see can kicking working indefinitely either. We're either in or we're not.
    There is the default legal option of "no deal" exit of course.

    There is, but No Deal is not an end state. The WA is the necessary condition for any deal with the EU. And politically No Deal is no deal.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    Rentoul’s “trilemma spreadsheet”, updated today, still has May’s Deal going through 320-310.

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ELogQ8s_jdy55R2KAyvg5CDaFM3jVf_FiA7-TVbDL1I/mobilebasic

    But May needs the DUP, 30 Labour votes, and to keep ERG refuseniks to 30 odd.

    Each of those conditions currently look unlikely to me. I’m tipping - cos someone has to start somewhere - that May will lose 300-330.
    The deal is not going through this week. Ayes will be south of 250 IMO.
    Surely even Theresa May has to give up if she loses again by that sort of margin. But realistically the WA will have to go through at some point if we are going to leave the EU. I don't see can kicking working indefinitely either. We're either in or we're not.
    There is the default legal option of "no deal" exit of course.

    Pretty certain that our sovereign parliament would vote against.
    I wonder about the mechanics of how they'd do it.

    Can someone explain how this would be done ?
  • Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    Rentoul’s “trilemma spreadsheet”, updated today, still has May’s Deal going through 320-310.

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ELogQ8s_jdy55R2KAyvg5CDaFM3jVf_FiA7-TVbDL1I/mobilebasic

    But May needs the DUP, 30 Labour votes, and to keep ERG refuseniks to 30 odd.

    Each of those conditions currently look unlikely to me. I’m tipping - cos someone has to start somewhere - that May will lose 300-330.
    The deal is not going through this week. Ayes will be south of 250 IMO.
    Surely even Theresa May has to give up if she loses again by that sort of margin. But realistically the WA will have to go through at some point if we are going to leave the EU. I don't see can kicking working indefinitely either. We're either in or we're not.
    There is the default legal option of "no deal" exit of course.

    Pretty certain that our sovereign parliament would vote against.
    I wonder about the mechanics of how they'd do it.

    Can someone explain how this would be done ?
    Vote to instruct Theresa May to seek an extension of Article 50, if the EU refuse that, then to revoke Article 50.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,916

    Is why I'm in favour of No Deal (as opposed to revocation), it'll destroy the credibility of so many Leavers.

    Me, are you kidding? Hey, I was with you all the time! That was beautiful! Did you see the way they fell into our trap? Ha ha!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    How many days left to B-day?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,393
    Foxy said:

    Tim Shipman thinks the contenders are Johnson, Javid, Hunt and Raab?

    I suspect the next Tory leader won't be any of those.

    Tracey Crouch?
    Kenneth Clarke.
    Dominic Grieve :)
    "The Truss" ?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    HYUFD said:

    Telegraph:

    "It came as 74 senior Tory activists, including more than 50 association chairman, told Mrs May that Conservative voters "do not fear a no deal exit" and "just want Brexit delivered."

    Madness. Utter madness.

    If even just from a self interest point of view. No Deal chaos will put Tories out of power for a generation and give us a full-blown marxist-socialist government.

    Given most Tory voters are Leavers, revoking Article 50 and Brexit is more likely to lead to a Corbyn government than No Deal as large numbers of Leavers could defect to Farage's new Brexit Party and UKIP. However Brexit with a Deal is better than No Deal longer term for the Tories
    People will be surprised how few Leavers are around once the impact of No Deal hits the UK.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,916
    Jonathan said:

    How many days left to B-day?

    B-day on Uranus?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,393
    Jonathan said:

    How many days left to B-day?

    To the nearest thousand?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835

    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    Rentoul’s “trilemma spreadsheet”, updated today, still has May’s Deal going through 320-310.

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ELogQ8s_jdy55R2KAyvg5CDaFM3jVf_FiA7-TVbDL1I/mobilebasic

    But May needs the DUP, 30 Labour votes, and to keep ERG refuseniks to 30 odd.

    Each of those conditions currently look unlikely to me. I’m tipping - cos someone has to start somewhere - that May will lose 300-330.
    The deal is not going through this week. Ayes will be south of 250 IMO.
    Surely even Theresa May has to give up if she loses again by that sort of margin. But realistically the WA will have to go through at some point if we are going to leave the EU. I don't see can kicking working indefinitely either. We're either in or we're not.
    There is the default legal option of "no deal" exit of course.

    Pretty certain that our sovereign parliament would vote against.
    I wonder about the mechanics of how they'd do it.

    Can someone explain how this would be done ?
    Vote to instruct Theresa May to seek an extension of Article 50, if the EU refuse that, then to revoke Article 50.
    What if TM refuses to do as instructed? She has form you know...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    dixiedean said:

    Rentoul’s “trilemma spreadsheet”, updated today, still has May’s Deal going through 320-310.

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ELogQ8s_jdy55R2KAyvg5CDaFM3jVf_FiA7-TVbDL1I/mobilebasic

    But May needs the DUP, 30 Labour votes, and to keep ERG refuseniks to 30 odd.

    Each of those conditions currently look unlikely to me. I’m tipping - cos someone has to start somewhere - that May will lose 300-330.
    That is actually 38 Labour votes. Possible.
    DUP on board possible.
    ERG down to 30 possible.
    All 3? With Mays track record of charm and persuasion? Highly unlikely.
    Once the choice becomes the Deal or possibly No Brexit at all, which it will from next week once No Deal is voted down, probably by more than support the Deal and Parliament votes heavily for extension which the EU will eventually demand EUref2, Remain v Deal or BINO for rather than extend indefinitely, then most of the ERG will cave and likely enough Labour MPs from Leave seats to see the Deal scrape home
  • dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    Rentoul’s “trilemma spreadsheet”, updated today, still has May’s Deal going through 320-310.

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ELogQ8s_jdy55R2KAyvg5CDaFM3jVf_FiA7-TVbDL1I/mobilebasic

    But May needs the DUP, 30 Labour votes, and to keep ERG refuseniks to 30 odd.

    Each of those conditions currently look unlikely to me. I’m tipping - cos someone has to start somewhere - that May will lose 300-330.
    The deal is not going through this week. Ayes will be south of 250 IMO.
    Surely even Theresa May has to give up if she loses again by that sort of margin. But realistically the WA will have to go through at some point if we are going to leave the EU. I don't see can kicking working indefinitely either. We're either in or we're not.
    There is the default legal option of "no deal" exit of course.

    Pretty certain that our sovereign parliament would vote against.
    I wonder about the mechanics of how they'd do it.

    Can someone explain how this would be done ?
    Vote to instruct Theresa May to seek an extension of Article 50, if the EU refuse that, then to revoke Article 50.
    What if TM refuses to do as instructed? She has form you know...
    She's replaced by someone who is prepared to do the above.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,274

    The cabinet minister in charge of Brexit has held detailed talks with Labour MPs who are championing plans for a second referendum – amid signs of mounting desperation inside Theresa May’s government about what to do if the prime minister’s deal suffers another crushing defeat on Tuesday.

    Stephen Barclay, the Brexit secretary, called the meeting with Labour’s Peter Kyle and Phil Wilson in Downing Street last Thursday as negotiations with Brussels to resolve the deadlock over the Northern Ireland backstop floundered and ministers privately began to concede that May’s plan could be doomed.

    Kyle told the Observer yesterday that Barclay had “remained loyal to government policy”, which is to oppose any second referendum. But the MP for Hove said Barclay talked to him and Wilson for at least 45 minutes and was “fully engaged”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/09/brexit-secretary-met-pro-referendum-labour-peter-kyle-phil-wilson

    It's the obvious way out for May - get the HoC to approve her Deal subject to a Deal v Remain referendum.

    It's so blindingly obvious only someone as lacking in vision as May would have taken this long to see it.
    She may get it through the HOC, but it'll destroy her party forever, and what rises from the ashes will be a quite ugly creature.

    You can't give the public a choice between what they've already rejected and deal almost everyone agrees is crap
    Er, define "almost everyone" in this context.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,543
    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    Rentoul’s “trilemma spreadsheet”, updated today, still has May’s Deal going through 320-310.

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ELogQ8s_jdy55R2KAyvg5CDaFM3jVf_FiA7-TVbDL1I/mobilebasic

    But May needs the DUP, 30 Labour votes, and to keep ERG refuseniks to 30 odd.

    Each of those conditions currently look unlikely to me. I’m tipping - cos someone has to start somewhere - that May will lose 300-330.
    The deal is not going through this week. Ayes will be south of 250 IMO.
    Surely even Theresa May has to give up if she loses again by that sort of margin. But realistically the WA will have to go through at some point if we are going to leave the EU. I don't see can kicking working indefinitely either. We're either in or we're not.
    There is the default legal option of "no deal" exit of course.

    Pretty certain that our sovereign parliament would vote against.
    I wonder about the mechanics of how they'd do it.

    Can someone explain how this would be done ?
    Vote to instruct Theresa May to seek an extension of Article 50, if the EU refuse that, then to revoke Article 50.
    What if TM refuses to do as instructed? She has form you know...
    You may have a point there. Time is just about up already. She can wait out the remaining days to March 29.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Scott_P said:
    That story has done the rounds for at least 3 months. And frankly, if that would do it it would suggest the objections to the deal really are bollocks.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1104506242683363328

    A lot of public are about to be upset then.

    Now that's a comment that can cover a wide array of options.

    dixiedean said:

    Rentoul’s “trilemma spreadsheet”, updated today, still has May’s Deal going through 320-310.

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ELogQ8s_jdy55R2KAyvg5CDaFM3jVf_FiA7-TVbDL1I/mobilebasic

    But May needs the DUP, 30 Labour votes, and to keep ERG refuseniks to 30 odd.

    Each of those conditions currently look unlikely to me. I’m tipping - cos someone has to start somewhere - that May will lose 300-330.
    That is actually 38 Labour votes. Possible.
    DUP on board possible.
    ERG down to 30 possible.
    All 3? With Mays track record of charm and persuasion? Highly unlikely.
    DUP on board is a precondition of ERG being squeezed to the hard core.

    Cannot see those 30 odd Labour votes to be honest.
    I can see that many, on the basis somewhere like that number have been stated to be against a referendum (and therefore remain), particularly if the DUP and ERG cave in, but I don't see how the first domino that is the DUP get on board. They don't want to be, the EU has no incentive to give them anything, and they don't seem to fear any consequences to their position.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    Rentoul’s “trilemma spreadsheet”, updated today, still has May’s Deal going through 320-310.

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ELogQ8s_jdy55R2KAyvg5CDaFM3jVf_FiA7-TVbDL1I/mobilebasic

    But May needs the DUP, 30 Labour votes, and to keep ERG refuseniks to 30 odd.

    Each of those conditions currently look unlikely to me. I’m tipping - cos someone has to start somewhere - that May will lose 300-330.
    The deal is not going through this week. Ayes will be south of 250 IMO.
    Surely even Theresa May has to give up if she loses again by that sort of margin. But realistically the WA will have to go through at some point if we are going to leave the EU. I don't see can kicking working indefinitely either. We're either in or we're not.
    There is the default legal option of "no deal" exit of course.

    Pretty certain that our sovereign parliament would vote against.
    I wonder about the mechanics of how they'd do it.

    Can someone explain how this would be done ?
    Vote to instruct Theresa May to seek an extension of Article 50, if the EU refuse that, then to revoke Article 50.
    What if TM refuses to do as instructed? She has form you know...
    She's replaced by someone who is prepared to do the above.
    How? That means VONC in the government. A big step.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,274
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Rentoul’s “trilemma spreadsheet”, updated today, still has May’s Deal going through 320-310.

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ELogQ8s_jdy55R2KAyvg5CDaFM3jVf_FiA7-TVbDL1I/mobilebasic

    But May needs the DUP, 30 Labour votes, and to keep ERG refuseniks to 30 odd.

    Each of those conditions currently look unlikely to me. I’m tipping - cos someone has to start somewhere - that May will lose 300-330.
    That is actually 38 Labour votes. Possible.
    DUP on board possible.
    ERG down to 30 possible.
    All 3? With Mays track record of charm and persuasion? Highly unlikely.
    Once the choice becomes the Deal or possibly No Brexit at all, which it will from next week once No Deal is voted down, probably by more than support the Deal and Parliament votes heavily for extension which the EU will eventually demand EUref2, Remain v Deal or BINO for rather than extend indefinitely, then most of the ERG will cave and likely enough Labour MPs from Leave seats to see the Deal scrape home
    A lot of things have to fall into place for that sequence to occur.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,545
    edited March 2019

    viewcode said:

    Rentoul’s “trilemma spreadsheet”, updated today, still has May’s Deal going through 320-310.

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ELogQ8s_jdy55R2KAyvg5CDaFM3jVf_FiA7-TVbDL1I/mobilebasic

    But May needs the DUP, 30 Labour votes, and to keep ERG refuseniks to 30 odd.

    Each of those conditions currently look unlikely to me. I’m tipping - cos someone has to start somewhere - that May will lose 300-330.
    The deal is not going through this week. Ayes will be south of 250 IMO.
    Can anyone name an MP who voted against the deal in January and has publicly committed to voting for it this week?
    Graham Brady?
    I think that was still conditional on Cox being satisfied.
    It was - Brady and another MP whose name I cannot remember tweeted that they would support the deal if Cox agreed that there was a unilateral way out of the backstop. But aside from that, AFAIK no MP has publicly changed sides since January. In which case the deal is going down by a similar margin to last time.
  • dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    Rentoul’s “trilemma spreadsheet”, updated today, still has May’s Deal going through 320-310.

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ELogQ8s_jdy55R2KAyvg5CDaFM3jVf_FiA7-TVbDL1I/mobilebasic

    But May needs the DUP, 30 Labour votes, and to keep ERG refuseniks to 30 odd.

    Each of those conditions currently look unlikely to me. I’m tipping - cos someone has to start somewhere - that May will lose 300-330.
    The deal is not going through this week. Ayes will be south of 250 IMO.
    Surely even Theresa May has to give up if she loses again by that sort of margin. But realistically the WA will have to go through at some point if we are going to leave the EU. I don't see can kicking working indefinitely either. We're either in or we're not.
    There is the default legal option of "no deal" exit of course.

    Pretty certain that our sovereign parliament would vote against.
    I wonder about the mechanics of how they'd do it.

    Can someone explain how this would be done ?
    Vote to instruct Theresa May to seek an extension of Article 50, if the EU refuse that, then to revoke Article 50.
    What if TM refuses to do as instructed? She has form you know...
    She's replaced by someone who is prepared to do the above.
    How? That means VONC in the government. A big step.
    Not necessarily, enough MPs (ie more than 325 MPs) say they want X as PM instead of Mrs May then Her Majesty will call for X to become PM.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787

    viewcode said:

    Rentoul’s “trilemma spreadsheet”, updated today, still has May’s Deal going through 320-310.

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ELogQ8s_jdy55R2KAyvg5CDaFM3jVf_FiA7-TVbDL1I/mobilebasic

    But May needs the DUP, 30 Labour votes, and to keep ERG refuseniks to 30 odd.

    Each of those conditions currently look unlikely to me. I’m tipping - cos someone has to start somewhere - that May will lose 300-330.
    The deal is not going through this week. Ayes will be south of 250 IMO.
    Can anyone name an MP who voted against the deal in January and has publicly committed to voting for it this week?
    Graham Brady?
    I think that was still conditional on Cox being satisfied.
    It was - Brady and another MP whose name I cannot remember tweeted that they would support the deal if Cox agreed that there was a unilateral way out of the backstop. But aside from that, AFAIK no MP has publicly changed sides since January. In which case the deal is going down by a similar margin to last time.
    Depending on the mood it could go down by even more if Tory MPs think they need to register their displeasure at the recent non-negotiations.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Rentoul’s “trilemma spreadsheet”, updated today, still has May’s Deal going through 320-310.

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ELogQ8s_jdy55R2KAyvg5CDaFM3jVf_FiA7-TVbDL1I/mobilebasic

    But May needs the DUP, 30 Labour votes, and to keep ERG refuseniks to 30 odd.

    Each of those conditions currently look unlikely to me. I’m tipping - cos someone has to start somewhere - that May will lose 300-330.
    That is actually 38 Labour votes. Possible.
    DUP on board possible.
    ERG down to 30 possible.
    All 3? With Mays track record of charm and persuasion? Highly unlikely.
    Once the choice becomes the Deal or possibly No Brexit at all, which it will from next week once No Deal is voted down, probably by more than support the Deal and Parliament votes heavily for extension which the EU will eventually demand EUref2, Remain v Deal or BINO for rather than extend indefinitely, then most of the ERG will cave and likely enough Labour MPs from Leave seats to see the Deal scrape home
    A lot of things have to fall into place for that sequence to occur.
    Indeed. I'll give HYUFD credit if that scenario plays out, but I am baffled at the confidence that 'most' of the ERG will cave once the choice becomes deal or no brexit at all - that's already quite clearly a very real possibility, and they surely know that, and if they don't then not even the events of next week will change that. It also strikes of closing stable doors after horses have bolted, since if a bunch of people are waiting for next week and the second defeat of the deal to finally then switch when no deal is 'ruled out' then they may find events have overtaken them and they won't get the chance.

    If they were prepared to cave, next week is the time. If they don't, either they won't ever, not in enough numbers, or it might be too late.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    viewcode said:

    Rentoul’s “trilemma spreadsheet”, updated today, still has May’s Deal going through 320-310.

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ELogQ8s_jdy55R2KAyvg5CDaFM3jVf_FiA7-TVbDL1I/mobilebasic

    But May needs the DUP, 30 Labour votes, and to keep ERG refuseniks to 30 odd.

    Each of those conditions currently look unlikely to me. I’m tipping - cos someone has to start somewhere - that May will lose 300-330.
    The deal is not going through this week. Ayes will be south of 250 IMO.
    Can anyone name an MP who voted against the deal in January and has publicly committed to voting for it this week?
    Graham Brady?
    I think that was still conditional on Cox being satisfied.
    It was - Brady and another MP whose name I cannot remember tweeted that they would support the deal if Cox agreed that there was a unilateral way out of the backstop. But aside from that, AFAIK no MP has publicly changed sides since January. In which case the deal is going down by a similar margin to last time.
    https://www.politicshome.com/news/europe/eu-policy-agenda/brexit/opinion/house-commons/102313/jim-fitzpatrick-mp-only-way-avoid

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8549047/robert-halfon-pms-deal-only-reasonable-option/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    viewcode said:

    Rentoul’s “trilemma spreadsheet”, updated today, still has May’s Deal going through 320-310.

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ELogQ8s_jdy55R2KAyvg5CDaFM3jVf_FiA7-TVbDL1I/mobilebasic

    But May needs the DUP, 30 Labour votes, and to keep ERG refuseniks to 30 odd.

    Each of those conditions currently look unlikely to me. I’m tipping - cos someone has to start somewhere - that May will lose 300-330.
    The deal is not going through this week. Ayes will be south of 250 IMO.
    Can anyone name an MP who voted against the deal in January and has publicly committed to voting for it this week?
    Graham Brady?
    I think that was still conditional on Cox being satisfied.
    It was - Brady and another MP whose name I cannot remember tweeted that they would support the deal if Cox agreed that there was a unilateral way out of the backstop. But aside from that, AFAIK no MP has publicly changed sides since January. In which case the deal is going down by a similar margin to last time.
    Depending on the mood it could go down by even more if Tory MPs think they need to register their displeasure at the recent non-negotiations.
    Non-negotiation would be an odd way to criticise it. There have been negotiations, they've just so far been completely unsuccessful.

    I hope Cox is easily satisfied, because the people he needs to convince are not. Brexit happening at all seems to have rested on his codpiece, and it's fallen short.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    Rentoul’s “trilemma spreadsheet”, updated today, still has May’s Deal going through 320-310.

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ELogQ8s_jdy55R2KAyvg5CDaFM3jVf_FiA7-TVbDL1I/mobilebasic

    But May needs the DUP, 30 Labour votes, and to keep ERG refuseniks to 30 odd.

    Each of those conditions currently look unlikely to me. I’m tipping - cos someone has to start somewhere - that May will lose 300-330.
    The deal is not going through this week. Ayes will be south of 250 IMO.
    Surely even Theresa May has to give up if she loses again by that sort of margin. But realistically the WA will have to go through at some point if we are going to leave the EU. I don't see can kicking working indefinitely either. We're either in or we're not.
    There is the default legal option of "no deal" exit of course.

    Pretty certain that our sovereign parliament would vote against.
    I wonder about the mechanics of how they'd do it.

    Can someone explain how this would be done ?
    Vote to instruct Theresa May to seek an extension of Article 50, if the EU refuse that, then to revoke Article 50.
    What if TM refuses to do as instructed? She has form you know...
    She's replaced by someone who is prepared to do the above.
    How? That means VONC in the government. A big step.
    Not necessarily, enough MPs (ie more than 325 MPs) say they want X as PM instead of Mrs May then Her Majesty will call for X to become PM.
    Constitutional crisis.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,543

    viewcode said:

    Rentoul’s “trilemma spreadsheet”, updated today, still has May’s Deal going through 320-310.

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ELogQ8s_jdy55R2KAyvg5CDaFM3jVf_FiA7-TVbDL1I/mobilebasic

    But May needs the DUP, 30 Labour votes, and to keep ERG refuseniks to 30 odd.

    Each of those conditions currently look unlikely to me. I’m tipping - cos someone has to start somewhere - that May will lose 300-330.
    The deal is not going through this week. Ayes will be south of 250 IMO.
    Can anyone name an MP who voted against the deal in January and has publicly committed to voting for it this week?
    Graham Brady?
    I think that was still conditional on Cox being satisfied.
    It was - Brady and another MP whose name I cannot remember tweeted that they would support the deal if Cox agreed that there was a unilateral way out of the backstop. But aside from that, AFAIK no MP has publicly changed sides since January. In which case the deal is going down by a similar margin to last time.
    Cox is incompetent in an interesting way. He's probably quite a good advocate, but he went all heavy lawyer on the EU, and they told him to piss off.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Rentoul’s “trilemma spreadsheet”, updated today, still has May’s Deal going through 320-310.

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ELogQ8s_jdy55R2KAyvg5CDaFM3jVf_FiA7-TVbDL1I/mobilebasic

    But May needs the DUP, 30 Labour votes, and to keep ERG refuseniks to 30 odd.

    Each of those conditions currently look unlikely to me. I’m tipping - cos someone has to start somewhere - that May will lose 300-330.
    That is actually 38 Labour votes. Possible.
    DUP on board possible.
    ERG down to 30 possible.
    All 3? With Mays track record of charm and persuasion? Highly unlikely.
    Once the choice becomes the Deal or possibly No Brexit at all, which it will from next week once No Deal is voted down, probably by more than support the Deal and Parliament votes heavily for extension which the EU will eventually demand EUref2, Remain v Deal or BINO for rather than extend indefinitely, then most of the ERG will cave and likely enough Labour MPs from Leave seats to see the Deal scrape home
    A lot of things have to fall into place for that sequence to occur.
    Indeed. I'll give HYUFD credit if that scenario plays out, but I am baffled at the confidence that 'most' of the ERG will cave once the choice becomes deal or no brexit at all - that's already quite clearly a very real possibility, and they surely know that, and if they don't then not even the events of next week will change that. It also strikes of closing stable doors after horses have bolted, since if a bunch of people are waiting for next week and the second defeat of the deal to finally then switch when no deal is 'ruled out' then they may find events have overtaken them and they won't get the chance.

    If they were prepared to cave, next week is the time. If they don't, either they won't ever, not in enough numbers, or it might be too late.
    They will not cave because they are being vindicated, in their eyes. In the last 10 days we have had
    Mark Carney saying no deal not as bad as forecast and worst for EU than UK.
    IFO Institute saying Smart Hard Brexit better for UK than EU.
    Dept of Transport signing deal with EU for flights to continue.

    To them it seems that as no deal brexit gets closer the more institutions are saying the ERG view is correct.

  • dixiedean said:


    Constitutional crisis.

    We haven't had one in my lifetime, so we're due one.

    Would be the first one since the abdication crisis?

    Probably the biggest crisis since the bedchamber crisis.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    kjohnw said:
    Not really that much of a surprise, given the 'just f*cking get on with it' feeling and the lack of belief in any dire consequences, but absent the overwhelming body of MPs being unable to cobble anything together to stop no deal (which seems improbable when kicking the can into an extension, at least for a bit, seems like it has a decent chance of passing muster with the EU) it isn't that important whether people would accept no deal (in principle) it's what would they do if there was another vote, or who would they punish if we remain after all.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 948
    edited March 2019
    DougSeal said:

    theProle said:



    This is nonsense on stilts....

    Absolutely delusional. Threatening no deal at this late stage is essentially threatening to blow our own kneecaps off while confidently predicting that they will back down because they don’t want to be splattered with the blood. It may have been possible with some years’ prep, about five at an educated guess, but now they will just shrug.

    I have seen too many people say one side or another is “almost certainly” going to win in the last five years to lend any of it any credence.
    Except in the case of RoI, it's more like their kneecaps, with us getting a mild splattering.
    Most of their trade with the rest of Europe goes through the UK. We can just buy in what we need from the rest of the world if getting stuff from the EU is difficult. We can decided to suspend customs checks, tariffs, do whatever it takes to get things in and out of the country where they need to be. RoI can't do any of that because it will be against the EU's rules. And an Irish lorry at Dover - sorry but it's back of the queue mate.

    Don't get me wrong, there would be some bumps in the road for us, but just like after the referendum we were told there would be an instant near apocalypse, and (surprise!) there wasn't - indeed the economy went into a boom instead (and at some point there will be another big crash - at the moment the world feels just like 2007 - anyone anywhere can get a job, employers can't find staff for love or money) - no deal won't be half as bad as the current band of useful idiots are making out.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,231
    dixiedean said:

    viewcode said:

    Who is Marcus Antonius?

    "I made her – and I can break her."

    image
    Why does he look like he's four foot tall in that photograph?
    And wearing a novelty Alice band with flags attached?
    I did not laugh
    I did not laugh
    I did not laugh

    Pause

    I laughed
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Rentoul’s “trilemma spreadsheet”, updated today, still has May’s Deal going through 320-310.

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ELogQ8s_jdy55R2KAyvg5CDaFM3jVf_FiA7-TVbDL1I/mobilebasic

    But May needs the DUP, 30 Labour votes, and to keep ERG refuseniks to 30 odd.

    Each of those conditions currently look unlikely to me. I’m tipping - cos someone has to start somewhere - that May will lose 300-330.
    That is actually 38 Labour votes. Possible.
    DUP on board possible.
    ERG down to 30 possible.
    All 3? With Mays track record of charm and persuasion? Highly unlikely.
    Once the choice becomes the Deal or possibly No Brexit at all, which it will from next week once No Deal is voted down, probably by more than support the Deal and Parliament votes heavily for extension which the EU will eventually demand EUref2, Remain v Deal or BINO for rather than extend indefinitely, then most of the ERG will cave and likely enough Labour MPs from Leave seats to see the Deal scrape home
    A lot of things have to fall into place for that sequence to occur.
    From next week they will, even if the Deal loses No Deal will overwhelmingly lose with even less support than the Deal, extension of Article 50 will overwhelmingly pass and the choice will end up the Deal or EUref2 Remain v Deal and possibly No Brexit at all or Norway Plus, May by offering MPs a free vote on No Deal has made her best tactical move so far and can finally start twisting the thumbscrews on the ERG, hence her statement in Grimsby that the choice could be her Deal or No Brexit at all

  • They will not cave because they are being vindicated, in their eyes. In the last 10 days we have had
    Mark Carney saying no deal not as bad as forecast and worst for EU than UK.
    IFO Institute saying Smart Hard Brexit better for UK than EU.
    Dept of Transport signing deal with EU for flights to continue.

    To them it seems that as no deal brexit gets closer the more institutions are saying the ERG view is correct.

    Epically wrong by you.

    The ERG say No Deal Brexit will be great for the UK/sunlit uplands, the people you've quoted say Brexit will be bad for the UK but maybe worse for the EU.

    That will be bugger all comfort for the UK voters who lose their jobs because of No Deal.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,093
    Could the AG change his legal advice to MPs if, as per Barnier's tweets and briefings, the Commission and Council offer an interpretative document requiring the EU to make best endeavours to negotiate an alternative to the backstop?

    After all, the AG apparently suggested that one solution was that there would be a new arbitration panel to check whether UK / EU had been reasonable in finding alternatives, and since 'best endeavours' includes doing everything a reasonable person would, surely it's as near as dammit the same test?

    But I think not. The interpretative doc offered, and the best endeavours arbitration sought, are almost certainly no advance on the 'best endeavours' in A184 and the arbitration mechanism in A170-181.

    The AG will have to come back with something else if he is to change the advice. If he does (and that's a big 'if'), I think the WA makes it past the MV by an handful of votes. If not, it loses by an armful.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Rentoul’s “trilemma spreadsheet”, updated today, still has May’s Deal going through 320-310.

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ELogQ8s_jdy55R2KAyvg5CDaFM3jVf_FiA7-TVbDL1I/mobilebasic

    But May needs the DUP, 30 Labour votes, and to keep ERG refuseniks to 30 odd.

    Each of those conditions currently look unlikely to me. I’m tipping - cos someone has to start somewhere - that May will lose 300-330.
    That is actually 38 Labour votes. Possible.
    DUP on board possible.
    ERG down to 30 possible.
    All 3? With Mays track record of charm and persuasion? Highly unlikely.
    Once the choice becomes the Deal or possibly No Brexit at all, which it will from next week once No Deal is voted down, probably by more ome
    A lot of things have to fall into place for that sequence to occur.
    Indeed. I'll give HYUFD credit if that scenario plays out, but I am baffled at the confidence that 'most' of the ERG will cave once the choice becomes deal or no brexit at all - that's already quite clearly a very real possibility, and they surely know that, and if they don't then not even the events of next week will change that. It also strikes of closing stable doors after horses have bolted, since if a bunch of people are waiting for next week and the second defeat of the deal to finally then switch when no deal is 'ruled out' then they may find events have overtaken them and they won't get the chance.

    If they were prepared to cave, next week is the time. If they don't, either they won't ever, not in enough numbers, or it might be too late.
    They will not cave because they are being vindicated, in their eyes. In the last 10 days we have had
    Mark Carney saying no deal not as bad as forecast and worst for EU than UK.
    IFO Institute saying Smart Hard Brexit better for UK than EU.
    Dept of Transport signing deal with EU for flights to continue.

    To them it seems that as no deal brexit gets closer the more institutions are saying the ERG view is correct.

    There are not the votes for No Deal in the Commons, end of story, at least 50 Tory MPs ie Boles, Rudd, Soames, Lee Letwin etc would vote for EUref2 or Norway Plus BINO over No Deal giving those options a clear winning total of about 350 MPs
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Drutt said:

    Could the AG change his legal advice to MPs if, as per Barnier's tweets and briefings, the Commission and Council offer an interpretative document requiring the EU to make best endeavours to negotiate an alternative to the backstop?

    After all, the AG apparently suggested that one solution was that there would be a new arbitration panel to check whether UK / EU had been reasonable in finding alternatives, and since 'best endeavours' includes doing everything a reasonable person would, surely it's as near as dammit the same test?

    But I think not. The interpretative doc offered, and the best endeavours arbitration sought, are almost certainly no advance on the 'best endeavours' in A184 and the arbitration mechanism in A170-181.

    The AG will have to come back with something else if he is to change the advice. If he does (and that's a big 'if'), I think the WA makes it past the MV by an handful of votes. If not, it loses by an armful.

    I cannot say I am very hopeful at this point. Clearly there are some who will insist anything Cox comes back with does not satisfy, and they may even have a point given what they want versus what they will get. Given no-one seems to think there is anything huge forthcoming then even if Cox unveils something that is enough for him to change his advice I find it hard to believe all those people in the ERG happy with no deal, or Lab potential rebels who have an easier option in going for an extension, or the DUP who are just plain barmy all the time, will switch in sufficient numbers.

    I've not been keeping up with things all that much this week, been a bit busy, but last i heard the MV was expected to go down by about 100 votes. Has that changed and is there any reason to think it will?

    I don't think we'll get a MV3 on the deal.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,545

    viewcode said:

    Rentoul’s “trilemma spreadsheet”, updated today, still has May’s Deal going through 320-310.

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ELogQ8s_jdy55R2KAyvg5CDaFM3jVf_FiA7-TVbDL1I/mobilebasic

    But May needs the DUP, 30 Labour votes, and to keep ERG refuseniks to 30 odd.

    Each of those conditions currently look unlikely to me. I’m tipping - cos someone has to start somewhere - that May will lose 300-330.
    The deal is not going through this week. Ayes will be south of 250 IMO.
    Can anyone name an MP who voted against the deal in January and has publicly committed to voting for it this week?
    Graham Brady?
    I think that was still conditional on Cox being satisfied.
    It was - Brady and another MP whose name I cannot remember tweeted that they would support the deal if Cox agreed that there was a unilateral way out of the backstop. But aside from that, AFAIK no MP has publicly changed sides since January. In which case the deal is going down by a similar margin to last time.
    https://www.politicshome.com/news/europe/eu-policy-agenda/brexit/opinion/house-commons/102313/jim-fitzpatrick-mp-only-way-avoid

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8549047/robert-halfon-pms-deal-only-reasonable-option/
    OK so that's two MPs who have switched to support the deal. Which brings the majority against down to 226.....

    Any more?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    kjohnw said:
    Last time I checked 44% was not a majority, indeed it is almost 10% less than the 52% who voted Leave
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    viewcode said:

    Rentoul’s “trilemma spreadsheet”, updated today, still has May’s Deal going through 320-310.

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ELogQ8s_jdy55R2KAyvg5CDaFM3jVf_FiA7-TVbDL1I/mobilebasic

    But May needs the DUP, 30 Labour votes, and to keep ERG refuseniks to 30 odd.

    Each of those conditions currently look unlikely to me. I’m tipping - cos someone has to start somewhere - that May will lose 300-330.
    The deal is not going through this week. Ayes will be south of 250 IMO.
    Can anyone name an MP who voted against the deal in January and has publicly committed to voting for it this week?
    Graham Brady?
    I think that was still conditional on Cox being satisfied.
    It was - Brady and another MP whose name I cannot remember tweeted that they would support the deal if Cox agreed that there was a unilateral way out of the backstop. But aside from that, AFAIK no MP has publicly changed sides since January. In which case the deal is going down by a similar margin to last time.
    https://www.politicshome.com/news/europe/eu-policy-agenda/brexit/opinion/house-commons/102313/jim-fitzpatrick-mp-only-way-avoid

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8549047/robert-halfon-pms-deal-only-reasonable-option/
    OK so that's two MPs who have switched to support the deal. Which brings the majority against down to 226.....

    Any more?
    I’m going to take a proper look tomorrow. I agree that far fewer have than the PM requires on any measure.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,231
    edited March 2019
    Jonathan said:

    How many days left to B-day?

    As of 11pm tonight,[1] there are nineteen days to Brexit. You now have nineteen days to reach minimum safe distance...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ebSRKB91voY


    [1] This link (https://howmanydaystill.com/its/brexit-6) is a hour out because we leave at 11pm our time.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    HYUFD said:

    kjohnw said:
    Last time I checked 44% was not a majority, indeed it is almost 10% less than the 52% who voted Leave
    only 8% actually, and that doesn't include those the polls failed to pick up before the 2016 referendum, also the trend is towards no deal amongst the public.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    viewcode said:

    Jonathan said:

    How many days left to B-day?

    As of 11pm tonight, there are nineteen days to Brexit. You now have nineteen days to reach minimum safe distance...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ebSRKB91voY


    [1] This link (https://howmanydaystill.com/its/brexit-6) is a hour out because we leave at 11pm our time.
    I hope anyone pinning hopes on a last minute revocation sets their watch correctly.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,916


    They will not cave because they are being vindicated, in their eyes. In the last 10 days we have had
    Mark Carney saying no deal not as bad as forecast and worst for EU than UK.
    IFO Institute saying Smart Hard Brexit better for UK than EU.
    Dept of Transport signing deal with EU for flights to continue.

    To them it seems that as no deal brexit gets closer the more institutions are saying the ERG view is correct.

    Epically wrong by you.

    The ERG say No Deal Brexit will be great for the UK/sunlit uplands, the people you've quoted say Brexit will be bad for the UK but maybe worse for the EU.

    That will be bugger all comfort for the UK voters who lose their jobs because of No Deal.
    Well, just to let all you wealthy and successful PBers know: I've already been unemployed for 6 months...
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201


    They will not cave because they are being vindicated, in their eyes. In the last 10 days we have had
    Mark Carney saying no deal not as bad as forecast and worst for EU than UK.
    IFO Institute saying Smart Hard Brexit better for UK than EU.
    Dept of Transport signing deal with EU for flights to continue.

    To them it seems that as no deal brexit gets closer the more institutions are saying the ERG view is correct.

    Epically wrong by you.

    The ERG say No Deal Brexit will be great for the UK/sunlit uplands, the people you've quoted say Brexit will be bad for the UK but maybe worse for the EU.

    That will be bugger all comfort for the UK voters who lose their jobs because of No Deal.
    So will the ERG cave or not?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,231
    edited March 2019
    kle4 said:

    viewcode said:

    Jonathan said:

    How many days left to B-day?

    As of 11pm tonight, there are nineteen days to Brexit. You now have nineteen days to reach minimum safe distance...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ebSRKB91voY


    [1] This link (https://howmanydaystill.com/its/brexit-6) is a hour out because we leave at 11pm our time.
    I hope anyone pinning hopes on a last minute revocation sets their watch correctly.
    I can just see Boris turning up a minute late...

    Incidentally why don't we have good self-destruct scenes in movies any more? Were they just an Eighties thing? (yes, I know Alien 1 was 1979)...
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,545

    viewcode said:

    Rentoul’s “trilemma spreadsheet”, updated today, still has May’s Deal going through 320-310.

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ELogQ8s_jdy55R2KAyvg5CDaFM3jVf_FiA7-TVbDL1I/mobilebasic

    But May needs the DUP, 30 Labour votes, and to keep ERG refuseniks to 30 odd.

    Each of those conditions currently look unlikely to me. I’m tipping - cos someone has to start somewhere - that May will lose 300-330.
    The deal is not going through this week. Ayes will be south of 250 IMO.
    Can anyone name an MP who voted against the deal in January and has publicly committed to voting for it this week?
    Graham Brady?
    I think that was still conditional on Cox being satisfied.
    It was - Brady and another MP whose name I cannot remember tweeted that they would support the deal if Cox agreed that there was a unilateral way out of the backstop. But aside from that, AFAIK no MP has publicly changed sides since January. In which case the deal is going down by a similar margin to last time.
    https://www.politicshome.com/news/europe/eu-policy-agenda/brexit/opinion/house-commons/102313/jim-fitzpatrick-mp-only-way-avoid

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8549047/robert-halfon-pms-deal-only-reasonable-option/
    OK so that's two MPs who have switched to support the deal. Which brings the majority against down to 226.....

    Any more?
    I’m going to take a proper look tomorrow. I agree that far fewer have than the PM requires on any measure.
    I believe I read that Martin Vickers (Cleepthorps) was also switching but I cannot find the reference.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,231


    They will not cave because they are being vindicated, in their eyes. In the last 10 days we have had
    Mark Carney saying no deal not as bad as forecast and worst for EU than UK.
    IFO Institute saying Smart Hard Brexit better for UK than EU.
    Dept of Transport signing deal with EU for flights to continue.

    To them it seems that as no deal brexit gets closer the more institutions are saying the ERG view is correct.

    Epically wrong by you.

    The ERG say No Deal Brexit will be great for the UK/sunlit uplands, the people you've quoted say Brexit will be bad for the UK but maybe worse for the EU.

    That will be bugger all comfort for the UK voters who lose their jobs because of No Deal.
    Well, just to let all you wealthy and successful PBers know: I've already been unemployed for 6 months...
    You have a PhD, Dr Prasannan. I think you'll get another job... :)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited March 2019
    kjohnw said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjohnw said:
    Last time I checked 44% was not a majority, indeed it is almost 10% less than the 52% who voted Leave
    only 8% actually, and that doesn't include those the polls failed to pick up before the 2016 referendum, also the trend is towards no deal amongst the public.
    It isn't really, a poll last year had 45% for No Deal v Remain on 55%

    https://www.businessinsider.co.za/yougov-poll-voters-would-rather-remain-in-eu-than-accept-a-no-deal-brexit-2018-7
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    viewcode said:

    Rentoul’s “trilemma spreadsheet”, updated today, still has May’s Deal going through 320-310.

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ELogQ8s_jdy55R2KAyvg5CDaFM3jVf_FiA7-TVbDL1I/mobilebasic

    But May needs the DUP, 30 Labour votes, and to keep ERG refuseniks to 30 odd.

    Each of those conditions currently look unlikely to me. I’m tipping - cos someone has to start somewhere - that May will lose 300-330.
    The deal is not going through this week. Ayes will be south of 250 IMO.
    Can anyone name an MP who voted against the deal in January and has publicly committed to voting for it this week?
    Graham Brady?
    I think that was still conditional on Cox being satisfied.
    It was - Brady and another MP whose name I cannot remember tweeted that they would support the deal if Cox agreed that there was a unilateral way out of the backstop. But aside from that, AFAIK no MP has publicly changed sides since January. In which case the deal is going down by a similar margin to last time.
    https://www.politicshome.com/news/europe/eu-policy-agenda/brexit/opinion/house-commons/102313/jim-fitzpatrick-mp-only-way-avoid

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8549047/robert-halfon-pms-deal-only-reasonable-option/
    OK so that's two MPs who have switched to support the deal. Which brings the majority against down to 226.....

    Any more?
    I’m going to take a proper look tomorrow. I agree that far fewer have than the PM requires on any measure.
    I believe I read that Martin Vickers (Cleepthorps) was also switching but I cannot find the reference.
    Judging by this pair of posts it’s a racing certainty:

    https://www.martinvickers.org.uk/news/brexit-update-0
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    Rentoul’s “trilemma spreadsheet”, updated today, still has May’s Deal going through 320-310.

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ELogQ8s_jdy55R2KAyvg5CDaFM3jVf_FiA7-TVbDL1I/mobilebasic

    But May needs the DUP, 30 Labour votes, and to keep ERG refuseniks to 30 odd.

    Each of those conditions currently look unlikely to me. I’m tipping - cos someone has to start somewhere - that May will lose 300-330.
    The deal is not going through this week. Ayes will be south of 250 IMO.
    Surely even Theresa May has to give up if she loses again by that sort of margin. But realistically the WA will have to go through at some point if we are going to leave the EU. I don't see can kicking working indefinitely either. We're either in or we're not.
    There is the default legal option of "no deal" exit of course.

    Pretty certain that our sovereign parliament would vote against.
    I wonder about the mechanics of how they'd do it.

    Can someone explain how this would be done ?
    Vote to instruct Theresa May to seek an extension of Article 50, if the EU refuse that, then to revoke Article 50.
    What if TM refuses to do as instructed? She has form you know...
    She's replaced by someone who is prepared to do the above.
    Good job tory mp's can put letters in ... oh wait

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,543
    Drutt said:

    Could the AG change his legal advice to MPs if, as per Barnier's tweets and briefings, the Commission and Council offer an interpretative document requiring the EU to make best endeavours to negotiate an alternative to the backstop?

    After all, the AG apparently suggested that one solution was that there would be a new arbitration panel to check whether UK / EU had been reasonable in finding alternatives, and since 'best endeavours' includes doing everything a reasonable person would, surely it's as near as dammit the same test?

    But I think not. The interpretative doc offered, and the best endeavours arbitration sought, are almost certainly no advance on the 'best endeavours' in A184 and the arbitration mechanism in A170-181.

    The AG will have to come back with something else if he is to change the advice. If he does (and that's a big 'if'), I think the WA makes it past the MV by an handful of votes. If not, it loses by an armful.

    The AG has got himself into a huge legal hole. One the EU has no intention of helping him out of, if it requires upending the backstop. Ultimately the UK has a choice. It can choose not to diverge from the EU (and there are reasons to not do so that go beyond Ireland) or it diverges leaving NI somewhat attached to the RoI and somewhat detached from the UK mainland. Although the EU are articulating the choice and insisting on it, the choice is inherent to Brexit. The last thing the government wants to do at this stage is to debate the choice. The legal permanence of the backstop is an irrelevance. The EU isn't playing along.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    If May pulls the votes on no deal and extension then she really has lost the plot .

    The backlash will see a complete meltdown in the Tory party. And if MPs on Tuesday think she’ll do this then Yvette Cooper and Letwin will retable the previous amendment which will carry a majority .
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    nico67 said:

    If May pulls the votes on no deal and extension then she really has lost the plot .

    The backlash will see a complete meltdown in the Tory party. And if MPs on Tuesday think she’ll do this then Yvette Cooper and Letwin will retable the previous amendment which will carry a majority .

    She won't she needs the Commons to vote overwhelmingly against No Deal and for extension to start to pressure the ERG
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,543
    nico67 said:

    If May pulls the votes on no deal and extension then she really has lost the plot .

    The backlash will see a complete meltdown in the Tory party. And if MPs on Tuesday think she’ll do this then Yvette Cooper and Letwin will retable the previous amendment which will carry a majority .

    As DixieDean points out the greater risk is that she fails to act on the votes that are taken.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    One thing that might be significant is that in Grimsby May didn't just say that a second referendum was a possibility, but that the chances of it have increased. I don't think she's ever given any indication before of the probability of different outcomes.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276

    The cabinet minister in charge of Brexit has held detailed talks with Labour MPs who are championing plans for a second referendum – amid signs of mounting desperation inside Theresa May’s government about what to do if the prime minister’s deal suffers another crushing defeat on Tuesday.

    Stephen Barclay, the Brexit secretary, called the meeting with Labour’s Peter Kyle and Phil Wilson in Downing Street last Thursday as negotiations with Brussels to resolve the deadlock over the Northern Ireland backstop floundered and ministers privately began to concede that May’s plan could be doomed.

    Kyle told the Observer yesterday that Barclay had “remained loyal to government policy”, which is to oppose any second referendum. But the MP for Hove said Barclay talked to him and Wilson for at least 45 minutes and was “fully engaged”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/09/brexit-secretary-met-pro-referendum-labour-peter-kyle-phil-wilson

    It's the obvious way out for May - get the HoC to approve her Deal subject to a Deal v Remain referendum.

    It's so blindingly obvious only someone as lacking in vision as May would have taken this long to see it.
    She may get it through the HOC, but it'll destroy her party forever, and what rises from the ashes will be a quite ugly creature.

    You can't give the public a choice between what they've already rejected and deal almost everyone agrees is crap
    Er, define "almost everyone" in this context.
    432 MPs as a starting point
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    FF43 said:

    nico67 said:

    If May pulls the votes on no deal and extension then she really has lost the plot .

    The backlash will see a complete meltdown in the Tory party. And if MPs on Tuesday think she’ll do this then Yvette Cooper and Letwin will retable the previous amendment which will carry a majority .

    As DixieDean points out the greater risk is that she fails to act on the votes that are taken.
    If MPs get wind that she won’t honour the promise she made then the Cooper Letwin amendment will be pushed through on Tuesday .

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,543


    They will not cave because they are being vindicated, in their eyes. In the last 10 days we have had
    Mark Carney saying no deal not as bad as forecast and worst for EU than UK.
    IFO Institute saying Smart Hard Brexit better for UK than EU.
    Dept of Transport signing deal with EU for flights to continue.

    To them it seems that as no deal brexit gets closer the more institutions are saying the ERG view is correct.

    Epically wrong by you.

    The ERG say No Deal Brexit will be great for the UK/sunlit uplands, the people you've quoted say Brexit will be bad for the UK but maybe worse for the EU.

    That will be bugger all comfort for the UK voters who lose their jobs because of No Deal.
    Well, just to let all you wealthy and successful PBers know: I've already been unemployed for 6 months...
    Sorry to hear that, Sunil. Having been through a probably similar experience myself but back in work, my advice is to focus on your job hunting and interview skills and take every bit of help you can get oi improving them. It can knock your confidence but being able to do the job isn't your worry. It's convincing prospective employers to take you rather than someone else.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,916
    viewcode said:


    They will not cave because they are being vindicated, in their eyes. In the last 10 days we have had
    Mark Carney saying no deal not as bad as forecast and worst for EU than UK.
    IFO Institute saying Smart Hard Brexit better for UK than EU.
    Dept of Transport signing deal with EU for flights to continue.

    To them it seems that as no deal brexit gets closer the more institutions are saying the ERG view is correct.

    Epically wrong by you.

    The ERG say No Deal Brexit will be great for the UK/sunlit uplands, the people you've quoted say Brexit will be bad for the UK but maybe worse for the EU.

    That will be bugger all comfort for the UK voters who lose their jobs because of No Deal.
    Well, just to let all you wealthy and successful PBers know: I've already been unemployed for 6 months...
    You have a PhD, Dr Prasannan. I think you'll get another job... :)
    Well, hopefully...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,916
    FF43 said:


    They will not cave because they are being vindicated, in their eyes. In the last 10 days we have had
    Mark Carney saying no deal not as bad as forecast and worst for EU than UK.
    IFO Institute saying Smart Hard Brexit better for UK than EU.
    Dept of Transport signing deal with EU for flights to continue.

    To them it seems that as no deal brexit gets closer the more institutions are saying the ERG view is correct.

    Epically wrong by you.

    The ERG say No Deal Brexit will be great for the UK/sunlit uplands, the people you've quoted say Brexit will be bad for the UK but maybe worse for the EU.

    That will be bugger all comfort for the UK voters who lose their jobs because of No Deal.
    Well, just to let all you wealthy and successful PBers know: I've already been unemployed for 6 months...
    Sorry to hear that, Sunil. Having been through a probably similar experience myself but back in work, my advice is to focus on your job hunting and interview skills and take every bit of help you can get oi improving them. It can knock your confidence but being able to do the job isn't your worry. It's convincing prospective employers to take you rather than someone else.
    Thanks, FF43!
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    FF43 said:



    Well, just to let all you wealthy and successful PBers know: I've already been unemployed for 6 months...

    Sorry to hear that, Sunil. Having been through a probably similar experience myself but back in work, my advice is to focus on your job hunting and interview skills and take every bit of help you can get oi improving them. It can knock your confidence but being able to do the job isn't your worry. It's convincing prospective employers to take you rather than someone else.
    Sympathies - I had two gaps like that since 2010. I agree with FF's advice - also, it's better to focus on a relatively small number of really good applications rather than fire off dozens in all directions as some people do (and indeed the benefits agency requires). I'm sure you'll lkand something soon - good luck!
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    edited March 2019
    FF43 said:

    Drutt said:

    Could the AG change his legal advice to MPs if, as per Barnier's tweets and briefings, the Commission and Council offer an interpretative document requiring the EU to make best endeavours to negotiate an alternative to the backstop?

    After all, the AG apparently suggested that one solution was that there would be a new arbitration panel to check whether UK / EU had been reasonable in finding alternatives, and since 'best endeavours' includes doing everything a reasonable person would, surely it's as near as dammit the same test?

    But I think not. The interpretative doc offered, and the best endeavours arbitration sought, are almost certainly no advance on the 'best endeavours' in A184 and the arbitration mechanism in A170-181.

    The AG will have to come back with something else if he is to change the advice. If he does (and that's a big 'if'), I think the WA makes it past the MV by an handful of votes. If not, it loses by an armful.

    The AG has got himself into a huge legal hole. One the EU has no intention of helping him out of, if it requires upending the backstop. Ultimately the UK has a choice. It can choose not to diverge from the EU (and there are reasons to not do so that go beyond Ireland) or it diverges leaving NI somewhat attached to the RoI and somewhat detached from the UK mainland. Although the EU are articulating the choice and insisting on it, the choice is inherent to Brexit. The last thing the government wants to do at this stage is to debate the choice. The legal permanence of the backstop is an irrelevance. The EU isn't playing along.
    Or it could leave without a deal and the backstop becomes irrelevant. I am not advocating it, just pointing out that it is an obvious possibility you have chosen to ignore.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    I've just binged watched five episodes of Deutchland 86 - the best political TV this year. Absolutely superb
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited March 2019
    FF43 said:

    nico67 said:

    If May pulls the votes on no deal and extension then she really has lost the plot .

    The backlash will see a complete meltdown in the Tory party. And if MPs on Tuesday think she’ll do this then Yvette Cooper and Letwin will retable the previous amendment which will carry a majority .

    As DixieDean points out the greater risk is that she fails to act on the votes that are taken.
    If Parliament votes down No Deal and for an extension May will obviously act on that, then keep pushing her Deal while amendments for EUref2, Norway Plus etc pass or get close to passing too to ramp up the pressure on the ERG and Labour MPs in Leave seats to vote for her Deal before Brexit Day or risk extension and No Brexit at all or BINO
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    FF43 said:

    Drutt said:

    Could the AG change his legal advice to MPs if, as per Barnier's tweets and briefings, the Commission and Council offer an interpretative document requiring the EU to make best endeavours to negotiate an alternative to the backstop?

    After all, the AG apparently suggested that one solution was that there would be a new arbitration panel to check whether UK / EU had been reasonable in finding alternatives, and since 'best endeavours' includes doing everything a reasonable person would, surely it's as near as dammit the same test?

    But I think not. The interpretative doc offered, and the best endeavours arbitration sought, are almost certainly no advance on the 'best endeavours' in A184 and the arbitration mechanism in A170-181.

    The AG will have to come back with something else if he is to change the advice. If he does (and that's a big 'if'), I think the WA makes it past the MV by an handful of votes. If not, it loses by an armful.

    The AG has got himself into a huge legal hole. One the EU has no intention of helping him out of, if it requires upending the backstop. Ultimately the UK has a choice. It can choose not to diverge from the EU (and there are reasons to not do so that go beyond Ireland) or it diverges leaving NI somewhat attached to the RoI and somewhat detached from the UK mainland. Although the EU are articulating the choice and insisting on it, the choice is inherent to Brexit. The last thing the government wants to do at this stage is to debate the choice. The legal permanence of the backstop is an irrelevance. The EU isn't playing along.
    Or it could leave without a deal and the backstop becomes irrelevant. I am not advocating it, just pointing out that it is an obvious possibility you have chosen to ignore.
    It's not an obvious possibility because it creates a shitstorm on Ireland and would represent a massive breach of trust with the EU.

    We can't just do what we want and expect other people to clean up the mess we create. We have responsibilities to treat the situation on Ireland with due caution and no deal is not an answer. It shouldn't be a question we need to consider.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    I've just binged watched five episodes of Deutchland 86 - the best political TV this year. Absolutely superb

    Yes, the first episode last night was very good, Deutschland 83 was also very good so no surprise really
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,543

    FF43 said:

    Drutt said:

    Could the AG change his legal advice to MPs if, as per Barnier's tweets and briefings, the Commission and Council offer an interpretative document requiring the EU to make best endeavours to negotiate an alternative to the backstop?

    After all, the AG apparently suggested that one solution was that there would be a new arbitration panel to check whether UK / EU had been reasonable in finding alternatives, and since 'best endeavours' includes doing everything a reasonable person would, surely it's as near as dammit the same test?

    But I think not. The interpretative doc offered, and the best endeavours arbitration sought, are almost certainly no advance on the 'best endeavours' in A184 and the arbitration mechanism in A170-181.

    The AG will have to come back with something else if he is to change the advice. If he does (and that's a big 'if'), I think the WA makes it past the MV by an handful of votes. If not, it loses by an armful.

    The AG has got himself into a huge legal hole. One the EU has no intention of helping him out of, if it requires upending the backstop. Ultimately the UK has a choice. It can choose not to diverge from the EU (and there are reasons to not do so that go beyond Ireland) or it diverges leaving NI somewhat attached to the RoI and somewhat detached from the UK mainland. Although the EU are articulating the choice and insisting on it, the choice is inherent to Brexit. The last thing the government wants to do at this stage is to debate the choice. The legal permanence of the backstop is an irrelevance. The EU isn't playing along.
    Or it could leave without a deal and the backstop becomes irrelevant. I am not advocating it, just pointing out that it is an obvious possibility you have chosen to ignore.
    I am not ignoring it. I mention it in my previous comment. No Deal isn't an end state. Agreeing the backstop is a prerequisite to ANY arrangement with the EU. I should also expand to say that a soft border is even more essential for Northern Ireland than for the RoI. The point is the UK will have to make choices and all of this is about the government trying to stop that debate happening
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967

    I've just binged watched five episodes of Deutchland 86 - the best political TV this year. Absolutely superb

    ' There are 10 episodes. In addition, a documentary entitled "Comrades and Cash" was produced to accompany the series. Narrated by Nay, it describes various business activities undertaken by the East German state to earn hard currency, including: the sale of arms by the East German state to the apartheid government of South Africa, their notional enemies; smuggling arms to both sides in the Iran-Iraq war; forced labor in prisons; appropriating antiques and safe-deposit-box contents from its citizens and selling them abroad; selling blood abroad without testing it for HIV. '

    Wasn't East Germany Corbyn's favourite country ?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    Very quiet from the cult this evening on the Murray item.

    They could have read all about it on here a few days earlier.

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967


    They will not cave because they are being vindicated, in their eyes. In the last 10 days we have had
    Mark Carney saying no deal not as bad as forecast and worst for EU than UK.
    IFO Institute saying Smart Hard Brexit better for UK than EU.
    Dept of Transport signing deal with EU for flights to continue.

    To them it seems that as no deal brexit gets closer the more institutions are saying the ERG view is correct.

    Epically wrong by you.

    The ERG say No Deal Brexit will be great for the UK/sunlit uplands, the people you've quoted say Brexit will be bad for the UK but maybe worse for the EU.

    That will be bugger all comfort for the UK voters who lose their jobs because of No Deal.
    Well, just to let all you wealthy and successful PBers know: I've already been unemployed for 6 months...
    Sorry to hear that.

    Hope you have better luck soon.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Drutt said:

    Could the AG change his legal advice to MPs if, as per Barnier's tweets and briefings, the Commission and Council offer an interpretative document requiring the EU to make best endeavours to negotiate an alternative to the backstop?

    After all, the AG apparently suggested that one solution was that there would be a new arbitration panel to check whether UK / EU had been reasonable in finding alternatives, and since 'best endeavours' includes doing everything a reasonable person would, surely it's as near as dammit the same test?

    But I think not. The interpretative doc offered, and the best endeavours arbitration sought, are almost certainly no advance on the 'best endeavours' in A184 and the arbitration mechanism in A170-181.

    The AG will have to come back with something else if he is to change the advice. If he does (and that's a big 'if'), I think the WA makes it past the MV by an handful of votes. If not, it loses by an armful.

    The AG has got himself into a huge legal hole. One the EU has no intention of helping him out of, if it requires upending the backstop. Ultimately the UK has a choice. It can choose not to diverge from the EU (and there are reasons to not do so that go beyond Ireland) or it diverges leaving NI somewhat attached to the RoI and somewhat detached from the UK mainland. Although the EU are articulating the choice and insisting on it, the choice is inherent to Brexit. The last thing the government wants to do at this stage is to debate the choice. The legal permanence of the backstop is an irrelevance. The EU isn't playing along.
    Or it could leave without a deal and the backstop becomes irrelevant. I am not advocating it, just pointing out that it is an obvious possibility you have chosen to ignore.
    I am not ignoring it. I mention it in my previous comment. No Deal isn't an end state. Agreeing the backstop is a prerequisite to ANY arrangement with the EU. I should also expand to say that a soft border is even more essential for Northern Ireland than for the RoI. The point is the UK will have to make choices and all of this is about the government trying to stop that debate happening
    No it isnt. Once we have left without a deal the whole withdrawal agreement is dead. At that point what becomes the issue is the arrangement for the Irish border. There is no more backstop.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846

    FF43 said:

    Drutt said:

    Could the AG change his legal advice to MPs if, as per Barnier's tweets and briefings, the Commission and Council offer an interpretative document requiring the EU to make best endeavours to negotiate an alternative to the backstop?

    After all, the AG apparently suggested that one solution was that there would be a new arbitration panel to check whether UK / EU had been reasonable in finding alternatives, and since 'best endeavours' includes doing everything a reasonable person would, surely it's as near as dammit the same test?

    But I think not. The interpretative doc offered, and the best endeavours arbitration sought, are almost certainly no advance on the 'best endeavours' in A184 and the arbitration mechanism in A170-181.

    The AG will have to come back with something else if he is to change the advice. If he does (and that's a big 'if'), I think the WA makes it past the MV by an handful of votes. If not, it loses by an armful.

    The AG has got himself into a huge legal hole. One the EU has no intention of helping him out of, if it requires upending the backstop. Ultimately the UK has a choice. It can choose not to diverge from the EU (and there are reasons to not do so that go beyond Ireland) or it diverges leaving NI somewhat attached to the RoI and somewhat detached from the UK mainland. Although the EU are articulating the choice and insisting on it, the choice is inherent to Brexit. The last thing the government wants to do at this stage is to debate the choice. The legal permanence of the backstop is an irrelevance. The EU isn't playing along.
    Or it could leave without a deal and the backstop becomes irrelevant. I am not advocating it, just pointing out that it is an obvious possibility you have chosen to ignore.
    It's not an obvious possibility because it creates a shitstorm on Ireland and would represent a massive breach of trust with the EU.

    We can't just do what we want and expect other people to clean up the mess we create. We have responsibilities to treat the situation on Ireland with due caution and no deal is not an answer. It shouldn't be a question we need to consider.
    It presents no breach of trust. In that situation there is no deal and that is as much the fault of the EU as it is the UK.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,916

    FF43 said:



    Well, just to let all you wealthy and successful PBers know: I've already been unemployed for 6 months...

    Sorry to hear that, Sunil. Having been through a probably similar experience myself but back in work, my advice is to focus on your job hunting and interview skills and take every bit of help you can get oi improving them. It can knock your confidence but being able to do the job isn't your worry. It's convincing prospective employers to take you rather than someone else.
    Sympathies - I had two gaps like that since 2010. I agree with FF's advice - also, it's better to focus on a relatively small number of really good applications rather than fire off dozens in all directions as some people do (and indeed the benefits agency requires). I'm sure you'll land something soon - good luck!
    Thanks, Nick!
  • I believe that the government can ignore any motion by MPs. Only a motion where a minister recommends royal consent be given would be binding.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,916


    They will not cave because they are being vindicated, in their eyes. In the last 10 days we have had
    Mark Carney saying no deal not as bad as forecast and worst for EU than UK.
    IFO Institute saying Smart Hard Brexit better for UK than EU.
    Dept of Transport signing deal with EU for flights to continue.

    To them it seems that as no deal brexit gets closer the more institutions are saying the ERG view is correct.

    Epically wrong by you.

    The ERG say No Deal Brexit will be great for the UK/sunlit uplands, the people you've quoted say Brexit will be bad for the UK but maybe worse for the EU.

    That will be bugger all comfort for the UK voters who lose their jobs because of No Deal.
    Well, just to let all you wealthy and successful PBers know: I've already been unemployed for 6 months...
    Sorry to hear that.

    Hope you have better luck soon.
    Thanks, Richard
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    The DUP are a disgrace . NI will be devastated with a no deal. What a disgusting bunch of vile bigots who are willing to destroy the peace process .
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    kjohnw said:
    The British will not be bullied.

    Over and over again through history we've seen examples of the Europeans and especially the Germans in the 20th Century miscalculating and getting the spirit of this country wrong.

    It really doesn't surprise me at all that after seeing the way the EU is treating Theresa May and by proxy the UK that "NO Deal" is very rapidly gaining support....
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    GIN1138 said:

    kjohnw said:
    The British will not be bullied.

    Over and over again through history we've seen examples of the Europeans and especially the Germans in the 20th Century miscalculating and getting the spirit of this country wrong.

    It really doesn't surprise me at all that after seeing the way the EU is treating Theresa May and by proxy the UK that "NO Deal" is very rapidly gaining support....
    Dear me the war ended over 70 years ago . The EU agreed a deal with May in November , and all this guff over way the EU are treating May. Typical Leaver trying to blame anybody but the lying spivs of the Leave campaign for selling a fantasy .
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    GIN1138 said:

    kjohnw said:
    The British will not be bullied.

    Over and over again through history we've seen examples of the Europeans and especially the Germans in the 20th Century miscalculating and getting the spirit of this country wrong.

    It really doesn't surprise me at all that after seeing the way the EU is treating Theresa May and by proxy the UK that "NO Deal" is very rapidly gaining support....
    Its too late now - parliament will almost certainly rule out no deal this week.

    Of course after the last few months you do wonder why we would want to stay a member of this organisation anyway.

    But either way a large section of the nation won't be happy with the outcome - we may be about to move into purgatory Hotel California style (i.e. we keep trying to check out but never actually leave!).

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