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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Meanwhile Johnson edges up further in the next CON leader bett

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited March 12 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Meanwhile Johnson edges up further in the next CON leader betting

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  • BromBrom Posts: 1,414
    1st unlike Liverpool
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 11,489
    Blah
  • BromBrom Posts: 1,414
    Good to see Jon Snow getting slapped down by Geoffrey Cox. There's far too many leaked sources these days which in all honesty are probably wishful thinking from so called journalists. I wouldn't be surprised if Jon Snow's contact in the legal world is actually Jessica Simor!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 19,136
    Brom said:

    Good to see Jon Snow getting slapped down by Geoffrey Cox. There's far too many leaked sources these days which in all honesty are probably wishful thinking from so called journalists. I wouldn't be surprised if Jon Snow's contact in the legal world is actually Jessica Simor!

    It wouldn't surprise me if it was Keir Starmer.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 51,299
    God I hope not.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 29,814
    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    So PBers. If you were in the HoC tonight, would you vote for or against the deal?

    On balance, and just about: For. And I would have been Against previously.

    My mind hasn’t been changed by TMay’s addition of lipstick, on the pig, but by Richard Nabavi explaining to me that the pig isn’t all that bad, and besides, pig is all we’re going to get, and if we don’t accept the pig, we might get nothing and the country would possibly descend into rapine and despair.

    So I am modestly in favour. Though no thanks to TMay who couldn’t sell a Christmas amnesty to turkeys.
    Could I have some vegetarian pig-substitute, please? :lol:

    And in answer to Jonathan, I guess I would vote for the deal.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 18,138
    On topic I am genuinely amazed by this. Surely he has now become a complete irrelevance?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 29,814
    "I have as much chance of becoming Prime Minister as of being decapitated by a frisbee or of finding Elvis."

    - Boris, July 2003.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 29,814
    "My chances of being PM are about as good as the chances of finding Elvis on Mars, or my being reincarnated as an olive."

    - Boris, June 2004.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 19,136
    Give it to the Second Favourite.

    All you need is Gove
    All you need is Gove
    All you need is Gove, Gove
    Gove is all you need
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 18,138
    Actually looking at the photo if one were being unkind one might suggest he is trying to make himself look more like his brother in the hope people confuse the two and vote for him by mistake.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 29,814

    Give it to the Second Favourite.

    All you need is Gove
    All you need is Gove
    All you need is Gove, Gove
    Gove is all you need

    What is Gove?
    Boris don't hurt me
    Don't hurt me
    No more
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,207
    That combover...

    On the business for the day, I hope MPs will take after Michael Collins rather than Eamonn de Valera.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 51,299
    I note both Boris and Farage are 54 years old.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 17,667

    Give it to the Second Favourite.

    All you need is Gove
    All you need is Gove
    All you need is Gove, Gove
    Gove is all you need

    Gove is a shoe in for Strictly this year with the amount of pin head dancing he was doing on R4 this morning.

    Meanwhile the going at Cheltenham is blustery but we haven't had the rain that has been threatened. Yet.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 29,814
    RoyalBlue said:

    That combover...

    On the business for the day, I hope MPs will take after Michael Collins rather than Eamonn de Valera.

    Are you referring to the concept of "freedom to achieve freedom"?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 14,368
    Breaking 'SNP honeymoon over' news.
    After 12 years the passion has waned a little, but SNP & electorate still conjoining with dogged consistency.



  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 17,301
    Boris goes up when he keeps quiet and out of public view?
  • mattmatt Posts: 2,786
    Pulpstar said:

    I note both Boris and Farage are 54 years old.

    Farage only 54???
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 17,667
    IanB2 said:

    Boris goes up when he keeps quiet and out of public view?

    Yes he is the NOTA candidate in some respects.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 29,814
    matt said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I note both Boris and Farage are 54 years old.

    Farage only 54???
    Beer and ciggies :)
  • A sight to make all nations stand and stare - a kingdom entrusted to a buffoon's care.

    I just cannot see Johnson as PM - unless he turns out like Hal in Henry V pt 1 and 2
  • He won’t even make the final two.

    I think he’ll chicken out, again.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 25,160
    FPT
    I would vote for the deal but then I would have voted for it before.

    I don't see the changes being that material in the real world. I don't think that the EU will want to hold us within the backstop without even a promise to chip into the pot indefinitely. It is not the way that they do business. I don't think we can be held to the backstop if we choose not to be although I do accept that there are consequences for unilateral withdrawal.

    The real game here is what at least the first version of our actual deal with the EU will look like. If we are trapped into the backstop short of walking away we are pretty much committed to a very soft Brexit indeed, probably involving continued membership of the CU. If we have a credible means of withdrawing from the backstop then the parameters of that discussion are wider. Whether we choose to take advantage of those wider parameters will of course be up to us and the EU in negotiations. We will start with a slightly more level playing field and the ERG should recognise that, even if the slope still inevitably favours the bigger player.

    The absolute priority for our political class today and every day for the last 6 months should be to end the uncertainty and risk of a cliff edge departure which we have not prepared for. The deal does that, or at least buys a period of time in transition to sort things out. Given where we are MPs will be in serious dereliction of their duties if they don't vote this through.
  • Breaking 'SNP honeymoon over' news.
    After 12 years the passion has waned a little, but SNP & electorate still conjoining with dogged consistency.



    Is there an Indyref question ?
  • dotsdots Posts: 615
    Big betting day.

    The size of May’s win tonight. With DUP, Mogg, Davis, and Rabb, boles and the permanently startled owl in lobby with her as now looking likely, then she wins by more than 40 surely? (The longer these people don’t say what they will do the more likely they back may)

    The other interesting one is if May gains more labour MPs in lobby with her than Tory MPs in lobby with Corbyn and Abbott. May’s win is 50 or more as looking likely as today progresses isn’t just about Tory MPs. 30 or 40 labour MPs wishing to either avoid second ref or just stop playing brexit chicken will ensure she wins by over 50. What was made clear to all of us in winter months, Corbyns whips office have zero control over Labour MPs in the meaningful votes.
  • I’m in London today I’ll try and persuade MPs to vote for the deal if I see any MPs.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 14,368

    Breaking 'SNP honeymoon over' news.
    After 12 years the passion has waned a little, but SNP & electorate still conjoining with dogged consistency.



    Is there an Indyref question ?
    If there is, figs not released yet
  • Breaking 'SNP honeymoon over' news.
    After 12 years the passion has waned a little, but SNP & electorate still conjoining with dogged consistency.



    Is there an Indyref question ?
    If there is, figs not released yet
    Ta.
  • kingbongokingbongo Posts: 215
    Scott_P said:
    which is just evidence of her desire to spend years moaning about the EU not actually leaving - like many leave nutters she is scared of losing her right to blame the EU for everything wrong and would actually rather stay.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 11,406

    A sight to make all nations stand and stare - a kingdom entrusted to a buffoon's care.

    I just cannot see Johnson as PM - unless he turns out like Hal in Henry V pt 1 and 2

    He nearer to Falstaff in both age and girth.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 17,667
    edited March 12
    Trouble is people (ERGers) have become so entrenched that they will be blind to any actual concession as the volte face required would be too much for them.

    They are stuck. As therefore are we.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 14,368

    matt said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I note both Boris and Farage are 54 years old.

    Farage only 54???
    Beer and ciggies :)
    Could be worse.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 2,405
    The tension! Everything coming down to one man's interpretation of the Joint Interpretative Instrument. A rum business indeed but comfort can at least be taken that that one man is Sir William Cash. We are in safe hands.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 15,566

    He won’t even make the final two.

    I think he’ll chicken out, again.

    Agreed.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 1,998
    edited March 12
    RoyalBlue said:

    That combover...

    On the business for the day, I hope MPs will take after Michael Collins rather than Eamonn de Valera.

    Of course Collins was killed shortly after but de Valera was in power in one form or another for most of the next 50 years - finall retiring as Irish President at the age of 90. He of course repudiated much of the 'deal' Collins agreed as Ireland progressed to being a Republic and left the Commonwealth - albeit it was his Fine Gael opponents who took the final steps.

    Collins as with JFK is revered as he died young so never really had his reputation ruined by the realities of running a newly independent nation.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 20,092
    Twitter seems awash with Remainers trying to sabotage a deal.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 24,686

    matt said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I note both Boris and Farage are 54 years old.

    Farage only 54???
    Beer and ciggies :)
    Could be worse.

    Singing First of the Gang to Die?
  • TGOHF said:

    Twitter seems awash with Remainers trying to sabotage a deal.

    Andrea Jenkyns is a Remainer?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 29,203
    Scott_P said:
    This is pretty much a statement of the obvious. It will be fascinating to see how Cox gets round it.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 25,587
    edited March 12
    O/T

    "Australia becomes latest country to suspend Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft"

    https://news.sky.com/story/boeing-to-issue-software-update-to-make-737-max-safer-11662753

    They're still flying in this country, with TUI Group.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47519929
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,484
    Scott_P said:
    This is crazy. What do brexiteers objecting to the deal at this point think they will be getting instead? A few may genuinely think this deal is worse than remaining, and sure some may secretly want to thwart brexit for the betrayal narrative benefits, but someone like Andrea Jenkyns doesn't seem that machivellian.

    If the deal is voted down today it will be those who are anti brexit who will be celebrating.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 29,203
    TOPPING said:

    Trouble is people (ERGers) have become so entrenched that they will be blind to any actual concession as the volte face required would be too much for them.

    They are stuck. As therefore are we.

    Not really. If they do ensure May's deal doesn't pass, we will move on to Norway Plus, a referendum or Remain. That's why I just cannot see them voting against. They would be entirely mad to reject the deal. I know some of them are, but not enough - surely! Here's hoping, though ;-)

  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 3,862
    TGOHF said:

    Twitter seems awash with Remainers trying to sabotage a deal.

    You can find any shade of opinion you care to look for on Twitter.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 393
    Scott_P said:
    Surely TMay will have checked all this with her AG before leaving Strasbourg, announcing victory?

    Is she that stupid? Did she really not confer with him first?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 315

    matt said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I note both Boris and Farage are 54 years old.

    Farage only 54???
    Beer and ciggies :)
    Could be worse.

    Singing First of the Gang to Die?
    You look at Johnny Marr these days, and then Mozza, you would have thought there was 20 years age difference. Maybe that's what supporting UKIP does to you.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 24,686
    edited March 12
    DavidL said:

    FPT
    I would vote for the deal but then I would have voted for it before.

    I don't see the changes being that material in the real world. I don't think that the EU will want to hold us within the backstop without even a promise to chip into the pot indefinitely. It is not the way that they do business. I don't think we can be held to the backstop if we choose not to be although I do accept that there are consequences for unilateral withdrawal.

    The real game here is what at least the first version of our actual deal with the EU will look like. If we are trapped into the backstop short of walking away we are pretty much committed to a very soft Brexit indeed, probably involving continued membership of the CU. If we have a credible means of withdrawing from the backstop then the parameters of that discussion are wider. Whether we choose to take advantage of those wider parameters will of course be up to us and the EU in negotiations. We will start with a slightly more level playing field and the ERG should recognise that, even if the slope still inevitably favours the bigger player.

    The absolute priority for our political class today and every day for the last 6 months should be to end the uncertainty and risk of a cliff edge departure which we have not prepared for. The deal does that, or at least buys a period of time in transition to sort things out. Given where we are MPs will be in serious dereliction of their duties if they don't vote this through.

    The Anarchist Teen in me would love to see just what happens in No Deal. It's that morbid fascination of "How bad can it be?" that provoked some folks to vote for Trump.

    But I want a Brexit without the risk of disaster attaching to it, so I'd vote for May's Shit Deal. Then boot our May and anyone associated with the negotiations of May's Shit Deal - including all those who refused to plan for No Deal.

    Then get real ornery on the trade deal negotiations, whilst planning for WTO in 2021.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 25,587
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    Surely TMay will have checked all this with her AG before leaving Strasbourg, announcing victory?

    Is she that stupid? Did she really not confer with him first?
    The Attorney General's latest Tweet was to say "Bollocks" to Channel 4's Jon Snow asking the same question.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 51,299

    TGOHF said:

    Twitter seems awash with Remainers trying to sabotage a deal.

    Andrea Jenkyns is a Remainer?
    A useful idiot.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 45,162
    TGOHF said:

    Twitter seems awash with Remainers trying to sabotage a deal.

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 14,368
    Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF said:

    Twitter seems awash with Remainers trying to sabotage a deal.

    Andrea Jenkyns is a Remainer?
    A useful idiot.
    Useful is...generous.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 17,667

    TOPPING said:

    Trouble is people (ERGers) have become so entrenched that they will be blind to any actual concession as the volte face required would be too much for them.

    They are stuck. As therefore are we.

    Not really. If they do ensure May's deal doesn't pass, we will move on to Norway Plus, a referendum or Remain. That's why I just cannot see them voting against. They would be entirely mad to reject the deal. I know some of them are, but not enough - surely! Here's hoping, though ;-)

    Bless

    :smile:
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 1,351
    To be honest given the number of times I’ve seen Peston and Kuenssberg tweeting utter rubbish in the past few months I’m pretty much zoning out of anything they write at the moment.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 393

    TOPPING said:

    Trouble is people (ERGers) have become so entrenched that they will be blind to any actual concession as the volte face required would be too much for them.

    They are stuck. As therefore are we.

    Not really. If they do ensure May's deal doesn't pass, we will move on to Norway Plus, a referendum or Remain. That's why I just cannot see them voting against. They would be entirely mad to reject the deal. I know some of them are, but not enough - surely! Here's hoping, though ;-)

    I think you will get your wish. TMay’s deal will fall tonight. Probably. In extremis, parliament will vote for an extension, and a referendum, or Norway +.

    Game theory suggests we will crash out, but in the end - surely - MPs will realize this is not a game.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 24,686
    TOPPING said:

    Give it to the Second Favourite.

    All you need is Gove
    All you need is Gove
    All you need is Gove, Gove
    Gove is all you need

    Gove is a shoe in for Strictly this year with the amount of pin head dancing he was doing on R4 this morning.

    Meanwhile the going at Cheltenham is blustery but we haven't had the rain that has been threatened. Yet.
    Must be on the way. Down in Devon, just had a truly horrible walk with the dog - lashed by horizontal rain. The dog took an abnormally long time out in it before he would finally take a dump.

    I think there is a Brexit metaphor in there somewhere.....
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 2,380

    matt said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I note both Boris and Farage are 54 years old.

    Farage only 54???
    Beer and ciggies :)
    Just a natural young fogey. Old before his time. Just like his backward looking ideas.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 21,607

    Breaking 'SNP honeymoon over' news.
    After 12 years the passion has waned a little, but SNP & electorate still conjoining with dogged consistency.



    Is there an Indyref question ?
    If there is, figs not released yet
    I thought there were some Indyref numbers on WOS yesterday or Sunday.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 2,380
    TOPPING said:

    Give it to the Second Favourite.

    All you need is Gove
    All you need is Gove
    All you need is Gove, Gove
    Gove is all you need

    Gove is a shoe in for Strictly this year with the amount of pin head dancing he was doing on R4 this morning.

    Meanwhile the going at Cheltenham is blustery but we haven't had the rain that has been threatened. Yet.
    I am sure the Labour Party would happily have Gove or Boris, with a preference for the latter as the comparison makes Corbyn look slightly less ridiculous.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 21,607
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    Surely TMay will have checked all this with her AG before leaving Strasbourg, announcing victory?

    Is she that stupid? Did she really not confer with him first?
    Bet she is that stupid and was hoping to force him into agreeing
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 29,814
    brendan16 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    That combover...

    On the business for the day, I hope MPs will take after Michael Collins rather than Eamonn de Valera.

    Of course Collins was killed shortly after but de Valera was in power in one form or another for most of the next 50 years - finall retiring as Irish President at the age of 90. He of course repudiated much of the 'deal' Collins agreed as Ireland progressed to being a Republic and left the Commonwealth - albeit it was his Fine Gael opponents who took the final steps.

    Collins as with JFK is revered as he died young so never really had his reputation ruined by the realities of running a newly independent nation.
    Dev actually broke with abstentionist[1] Sinn Fein in 1926, entering constitutional politics with his Fianna Fail party.

    [1] Back then, SF even refused to recognise the Dail.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 10,962
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    Surely TMay will have checked all this with her AG before leaving Strasbourg, announcing victory?

    Is she that stupid? Did she really not confer with him first?
    You'd think so but she seems to like to handle problems one thing at a time.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,484
    If the Erggers and Duppers defeat this deal, it would be the greatest act of political self sabotage since May's snap election. Brexit won't get better than this offer. May has been appeasing the brexiteers the whole way through it would be madness to throw it all away now. So they probably will.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 17,667

    TOPPING said:

    Give it to the Second Favourite.

    All you need is Gove
    All you need is Gove
    All you need is Gove, Gove
    Gove is all you need

    Gove is a shoe in for Strictly this year with the amount of pin head dancing he was doing on R4 this morning.

    Meanwhile the going at Cheltenham is blustery but we haven't had the rain that has been threatened. Yet.
    Must be on the way. Down in Devon, just had a truly horrible walk with the dog - lashed by horizontal rain. The dog took an abnormally long time out in it before he would finally take a dump.

    I think there is a Brexit metaphor in there somewhere.....
    Or two.

    Raining heavily now.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 393
    malcolmg said:

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    Surely TMay will have checked all this with her AG before leaving Strasbourg, announcing victory?

    Is she that stupid? Did she really not confer with him first?
    Bet she is that stupid and was hoping to force him into agreeing
    One has to feel a certain sympathy for the Attorney General. Today he either has to sacrifice his legal reputation, or his prime minister.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 29,203
    SeanT said:

    TOPPING said:

    Trouble is people (ERGers) have become so entrenched that they will be blind to any actual concession as the volte face required would be too much for them.

    They are stuck. As therefore are we.

    Not really. If they do ensure May's deal doesn't pass, we will move on to Norway Plus, a referendum or Remain. That's why I just cannot see them voting against. They would be entirely mad to reject the deal. I know some of them are, but not enough - surely! Here's hoping, though ;-)

    I think you will get your wish. TMay’s deal will fall tonight. Probably. In extremis, parliament will vote for an extension, and a referendum, or Norway +.

    Game theory suggests we will crash out, but in the end - surely - MPs will realize this is not a game.

    My guess is that a lot of MPs who have been loyal to May and cannot countenance No Deal will feel that if the ERG votes the deal down again they are released of all previous obligations. May sat next to Junker last night when he said that this is the final offer. She said she passionately believed in it. It's this or nothing for Brexiteers. They surely have to realise this. Surely.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 24,686
    DougSeal said:

    matt said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I note both Boris and Farage are 54 years old.

    Farage only 54???
    Beer and ciggies :)
    Could be worse.

    Singing First of the Gang to Die?
    You look at Johnny Marr these days, and then Mozza, you would have thought there was 20 years age difference. Maybe that's what supporting UKIP does to you.
    Or the Fatkins gammon diet.....
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 2,380

    If the Erggers and Duppers defeat this deal, it would be the greatest act of political self sabotage since May's snap election. Brexit won't get better than this offer. May has been appeasing the brexiteers the whole way through it would be madness to throw it all away now. So they probably will.

    The problem with extremists is that they are always greedy and unwilling to compromise. It is why they are so dangerous.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 14,368
    edited March 12
    Wasn't DAG being punted as a remoaner last night?
    He very obviously doesn't have the necessary movable principles or the self deceiving ability to spin on the tiniest coin of 'unilateral declaration' to become an honorable member.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 25,160
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    Surely TMay will have checked all this with her AG before leaving Strasbourg, announcing victory?

    Is she that stupid? Did she really not confer with him first?
    You're not taking anything Peston says seriously are you?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 14,368
    malcolmg said:

    Breaking 'SNP honeymoon over' news.
    After 12 years the passion has waned a little, but SNP & electorate still conjoining with dogged consistency.



    Is there an Indyref question ?
    If there is, figs not released yet
    I thought there were some Indyref numbers on WOS yesterday or Sunday.
    Think that was the Panelbase poll. Pretty sure the Survation one will have asked the question.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 17,667

    Wasn't DAG being punted as a remoaner last night?
    He very obviously doesn't have the necessary movable principles or the self deceiving ability to spin on the tiniest coin of 'unilateral declaration' to become an honorable member.

    He is of course right. But we are in strange times.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 925
    malcolmg said:

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    Surely TMay will have checked all this with her AG before leaving Strasbourg, announcing victory?

    Is she that stupid? Did she really not confer with him first?
    Bet she is that stupid and was hoping to force him into agreeing
    Gavin Barwell is that stupid.....
  • timmotimmo Posts: 925
    What odds on Cox doing a love actually moment in the commons and saying nothing has changed...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 21,607
    SeanT said:

    malcolmg said:

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    Surely TMay will have checked all this with her AG before leaving Strasbourg, announcing victory?

    Is she that stupid? Did she really not confer with him first?
    Bet she is that stupid and was hoping to force him into agreeing
    One has to feel a certain sympathy for the Attorney General. Today he either has to sacrifice his legal reputation, or his prime minister.
    Simple decision for me, he should tell the truth and be damned.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 1,998
    edited March 12
    Scott_P said:
    Quite a difference between a 24 hour delay and a 21 month delay though! I would feel I was being bounced if I was an MP - will another day make much difference to properly consider legal arguments on such an important decision that will affect us for possibly decades.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 25,160

    DavidL said:

    FPT
    I would vote for the deal but then I would have voted for it before.

    I don't see the changes being that material in the real world. I don't think that the EU will want to hold us within the backstop without even a promise to chip into the pot indefinitely. It is not the way that they do business. I don't think we can be held to the backstop if we choose not to be although I do accept that there are consequences for unilateral withdrawal.

    The real game here is what at least the first version of our actual deal with the EU will look like. If we are trapped into the backstop short of walking away we are pretty much committed to a very soft Brexit indeed, probably involving continued membership of the CU. If we have a credible means of withdrawing from the backstop then the parameters of that discussion are wider. Whether we choose to take advantage of those wider parameters will of course be up to us and the EU in negotiations. We will start with a slightly more level playing field and the ERG should recognise that, even if the slope still inevitably favours the bigger player.

    The absolute priority for our political class today and every day for the last 6 months should be to end the uncertainty and risk of a cliff edge departure which we have not prepared for. The deal does that, or at least buys a period of time in transition to sort things out. Given where we are MPs will be in serious dereliction of their duties if they don't vote this through.

    The Anarchist Teen in me would love to see just what happens in No Deal. It's that morbid fascination of "How bad can it be?" that provoked some folks to vote for Trump.

    But I want a Brexit without the risk of disaster attaching to it, so I'd vote for May's Shit Deal. Then boot our May and anyone associated with the negotiations of May's Shit Deal - including all those who refused to plan for No Deal.

    Then get real ornery on the trade deal negotiations, whilst planning for WTO in 2021.
    I've said repeatedly that no deal would not be nearly as calamitous as many have claimed, not least because we have agreed a series of mini-deals with the EU which would apply re flights, trucks, etc. But it would undoubtedly make our ongoing relationship with the EU much more difficult so we should take this deal.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 22,297
    edited March 12
    Anecdote alert: I attended the AGM of our local Conservative branch recently. It's fair to say that this is not exactly the social or political highlight of the season, being mostly concerned with reappointing officers unopposed, approving the branch accounts, and hearing from our local councillors on what is happening in the district and county council (spoiler: they are short of dosh, especially the county council).

    However, one thing was interesting. Although there was almost no discussion of national politics, no less than three people went out of their way, quite separately and without any real relevance to the subjects being discussed, to express what I can only describe as contempt for Boris. These were not lily-livered Cameroons, either, but traditional shire Tories who probably all voted Leave. No-one spoke favourably of Boris, or expressed disapproval of any other possible contenders.

    Make of this what you will: my view is that support for Boris is much less than the media and the markets think, and (perhaps more importantly) the Anyone But Boris viewpoint is very widely shared not only amongst MPs, but also in the membership.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 427
    Once again, the United States shows us the way, this time on Daylight Savings Time:

    https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/433599-trump-raises-hopes-for-permanent-daylight-savings-time
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 393

    Wasn't DAG being punted as a remoaner last night?
    He very obviously doesn't have the necessary movable principles or the self deceiving ability to spin on the tiniest coin of 'unilateral declaration' to become an honorable member.

    He’s a total Remoaner who pretends to be a Leaver who is merely “interested in the legal issues”. It’s utter horseshit, he is desperate to see Brexit reversed; for some reason he is unable to admit it, but all his tweets - especially the unguarded late-night ones - underline this.

    That doesn’t make his opinions worthless, however. He is often acute, and prescient.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 16,433

    TGOHF said:

    Twitter seems awash with Remainers trying to sabotage a deal.

    Andrea Jenkyns is a Remainer?
    Yes. If she votes against the deal she is a remainer.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 21,607
    DavidL said:

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    Surely TMay will have checked all this with her AG before leaving Strasbourg, announcing victory?

    Is she that stupid? Did she really not confer with him first?
    You're not taking anything Peston says seriously are you?
    He is almost as fake as Kuenssberg, she makes Lord Haw Haw sound reliable, BBC as the state propaganda machine is odious in the extreme.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,265
    Scott_P said:
    I thought Cox was the one who had been negotiating the deal?
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 9,239
    Please god no.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 33,554

    SeanT said:

    TOPPING said:

    Trouble is people (ERGers) have become so entrenched that they will be blind to any actual concession as the volte face required would be too much for them.

    They are stuck. As therefore are we.

    Not really. If they do ensure May's deal doesn't pass, we will move on to Norway Plus, a referendum or Remain. That's why I just cannot see them voting against. They would be entirely mad to reject the deal. I know some of them are, but not enough - surely! Here's hoping, though ;-)

    I think you will get your wish. TMay’s deal will fall tonight. Probably. In extremis, parliament will vote for an extension, and a referendum, or Norway +.

    Game theory suggests we will crash out, but in the end - surely - MPs will realize this is not a game.

    My guess is that a lot of MPs who have been loyal to May and cannot countenance No Deal will feel that if the ERG votes the deal down again they are released of all previous obligations. May sat next to Junker last night when he said that this is the final offer. She said she passionately believed in it. It's this or nothing for Brexiteers. They surely have to realise this. Surely.

    Exactly:


  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 4,367
    Fishing said:

    Once again, the United States shows us the way, this time on Daylight Savings Time:

    https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/433599-trump-raises-hopes-for-permanent-daylight-savings-time

    Blimey! Trump has sensible policy shock.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 21,394
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    I thought Cox was the one who had been negotiating the deal?
    I say again, if Cox says no it doesn't do what she wants, then she has to resign. It is over.

    Leadership race by weekend.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 9,452
    Geoffrey Cox might be available to dub the next Volkswagen campaign.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 24,554
    Scott_P said:
    His reputation will be made or broken today.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 25,160
    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    Surely TMay will have checked all this with her AG before leaving Strasbourg, announcing victory?

    Is she that stupid? Did she really not confer with him first?
    You're not taking anything Peston says seriously are you?
    He is almost as fake as Kuenssberg, she makes Lord Haw Haw sound reliable, BBC as the state propaganda machine is odious in the extreme.
    I quite like Kuenssberg. Peston has not had a credible story since Brown's Treasury stopped spoon feeding him more than 10 years ago now.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 19,136

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    I thought Cox was the one who had been negotiating the deal?
    I say again, if Cox says no it doesn't do what she wants, then she has to resign. It is over.

    Leadership race by weekend.
    If he does I'll oppose the deal again and the Commons 100% definitely will.
This discussion has been closed.