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  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Spread now 237-247

    Still a sell IMO at that price.
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,176
    Could we end up in the inadvertent and unfortunate position tonight whereby the deal just squeaks through but with the DUP unanimously against?

    That might enable Brexit, but where would that leave the Union and the confidence and supply deal?

    You'd still think it unlikely this will get through post Cox, but I think most Brexiteers now recognise reality and that it's either this deal or something considerably worse from their perspective.

    I really despair. I feel we are going to end up with something even more "worst of both worlds" than May's deal - absolute vassalage, which was ultimately the reason I held my nose and reluctantly voted Remain, in the hope of preventing that.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC BREAKING: DUP likely to vote against

    If DUP vote against then a few dozen Tory MPs will follow their lead.

    A deal that passed with the DUP opposed would have them tabling a vote of no confidence tomorrow.
    A few dozen? Nothing has changed since January. 100+ should vote against.

    Maybe 3 less as there are 3 less headbanging Remainers being called Tories now.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    Personally and politically that must have been incredibly hard for Cox. It’s now time for the ERG to grow up. What are the chances?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Sean_F said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC BREAKING: DUP likely to vote against

    If DUP vote against then a few dozen Tory MPs will follow their lead.

    A deal that passed with the DUP opposed would have them tabling a vote of no confidence tomorrow.
    I don't think the DUP switching would be sufficient to bring down the government, now that there are so many independents.
    Despite what they might say now, I really doubt most of the "Labour Independents" would be stupid enough to put down their names as supporting a Tory government, if they want any hopes of holding their seats.

    The only exception I think would be Ian Austin (as well as John Woodcock and Ivan Lewis, like last time).
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Sean_F said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC BREAKING: DUP likely to vote against

    If DUP vote against then a few dozen Tory MPs will follow their lead.

    A deal that passed with the DUP opposed would have them tabling a vote of no confidence tomorrow.
    I don't think the DUP switching would be sufficient to bring down the government, now that there are so many independents.
    On the contrary, there’s now three fewer Conservatives. Unless of course TIG decide to vote with the government? If they abstain, the government would fall with the DUP opposed.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840

    As a pragmatic leaver, who accepts we won't get a perfect Brexit, I really despair. How can May have stood up on the podium with Juncker and not made sure that Cox would sign this off first?

    If the deal goes down in flames, the only way I can see forward is to get an extension and then May stands down. A quick turnaround Con leadership election and then maybe a GE in May.

    She's utterly out of her depth?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited March 2019
    Game over for May then. Its remain in a few months.

    Like others I'm baffled Cox's view was not confirmed prior to an announcement. What a waste of time, and the EU will be furious when the deal is hugely defeated again.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Personally and politically that must have been incredibly hard for Cox. It’s now time for the ERG to grow up. What are the chances?

    In the end, you always do better to do the right thing rather than the easy thing. Geoffrey Cox will not regret having given the opinion he did this morning.

    It's not his fault if others decide not to follow his advice.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Could we end up in the inadvertent and unfortunate position tonight whereby the deal just squeaks through but with the DUP unanimously against?

    That might enable Brexit, but where would that leave the Union and the confidence and supply deal?

    You'd still think it unlikely this will get through post Cox, but I think most Brexiteers now recognise reality and that it's either this deal or something considerably worse from their perspective.

    I really despair. I feel we are going to end up with something even more "worst of both worlds" than May's deal - absolute vassalage, which was ultimately the reason I held my nose and reluctantly voted Remain, in the hope of preventing that.

    If I were a Tory MP I would vote against since Cox's statement.

    There must be many actual Tory MPs who think similarly.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    kle4 said:

    Game over for May then. Its remain in a few months.

    Certainly the former. Not sure we get to the latter.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072

    Personally and politically that must have been incredibly hard for Cox. It’s now time for the ERG to grow up. What are the chances?

    I thought no deal was better than a bad deal?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,088
    And so the ERG follow the DUP lead, saying they can't vote for the deal
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Spread now 237-247

    Good call for those who sold at 266 earlier. Sadly not me this time.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960
    Sandpit said:

    As a pragmatic leaver, who accepts we won't get a perfect Brexit, I really despair. How can May have stood up on the podium with Juncker and not made sure that Cox would sign this off first?

    If the deal goes down in flames, the only way I can see forward is to get an extension and then May stands down. A quick turnaround Con leadership election and then maybe a GE in May.

    That sounds like a reasonable series of events.

    Mrs May should have realised the deal was a dodo back in January, I can’t see any progress now with her remaining in place.
    The Deal has barely had a pulse since it was "Chequers".

    But nothing else has a detectable pulse.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    When is MV3 then ?

  • Geoffrey Cox once again shows Cambridge educated lawyers are the best with unimpeachable integrity.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    ERG will split. Question is how many diehards?
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352

    Chris said:

    I don't understand the view that it's a choice between the New Deal and No Brexit.

    No Deal remains the legal default.

    What do people see as the "no Brexit" route away from that? A referendum? Revocation? Given the situation within the Tory party, how would either be achieved?

    Parliament has a vote on whether they want an extension instead of No Deal. They do. TMay dutifully shuffles off to Brussels and asks the 27 if they will agree to this rather than inconveniencing their citizens and businesses with No Deal, and potentially further bollocksing up an already fragile recovery. They do.

    At the end of the extension period, repeat.

    At some point in the future, possibly after a new election, something may shift enough to make the deal, a referendum or revocation an option. But until that happens, just keep extending.
    Did you not hear Juncker? There will be no more renegotiation, so there is no basis for the EU to accept an extension.
    They have two reasons to agree to an extension:

    1. They'd be hit badly by the chaos of us crashing out with no deal. At the very least they'd want some more time to put in place further mitigation measures (they haven't done much yet). Anyway, disaster deferred is always preferable for a politician than disaster next week.

    2. Extension for a 'political event' (GE or referendum) could well lead to us not leaving after all, which is by far their preferred outcome.
    1. I’m not sure the EU 27 sees it that way, and it is after all the 27 that must agree.

    2. But they need parliament / government to support a referendum / GE before the 29th. Not sure I see that happening.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,914
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Tim Shipman has deleted the codpiece tweet.

    When they come to write the Curious History of the Brexit That Never Happened, a good left field title would be

    TIM SHIPMAN HAS DELETED THE CODPIECE TWEET
    That will be for Volume Two. Volume One will be called THE SECOND "TWAT".
    I would so buy that book. In an otherwise sorry process the second "twat" provided a rare source of unbridled joy as well as perfectly summarising the whole shit show.
    Take it you’re referring to Danny Dyer. Did he say TWAT twice?!
    Gloriously, yes. Lobs it in like a verbal grenade. I think others have posted the link. The timing, the absolute disdain, the slight elongation of the final "t" at the end of the word, it is utter perfection. Danny Dyer's a wonderful actor and this is his finest performance.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1105443867799834624

    I suspect the clearer it becomes that the deal isn't passing, the more of these guys will go back to the No column. No point sticking their neck out to change the third digit of the majority against.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Sandpit said:

    Spread now 237-247

    Good call for those who sold at 266 earlier. Sadly not me this time.
    I was tempted to buy at 278 just before Cox's statement came out. Despite not having a high opinion of her, I didn't believe May could be that arrogant to sign a deal with such fanfare without Cox signing off on it first.

    So glad I didn't.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263

    One comment on the election front - there is a very big opening for a stop brexit coalition from which one of the main parties dies.

    Haven't TIG said they want to run in every seat? That already means they've responded to the Lib Dems' friendliness by spitting in their faces. Not a good sign for the prospect of a coalition
    It's turning out to be a centrist split. We lefties are trying hard not to laugh - not least as the kaleidoscope of British politics is literally changing every day, so we could easily be despairing or rejoicing tomorrow.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    It was nice to think for at least a few hours that something might have been agreed today. But Cox's view is the nail in the coffin for any hopes of that today.

    What a shambles. May might as well not turn up for the vote, we all know the outcome.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960

    Sandpit said:

    Wow, that was not what everyone was expecting from Cox this morning, but fair play to him for playing a straight bat. I can’t see how the deal goes through tonight now, and the PM’s political career probably dies with it.

    It's crazy. What was she thinking? She trips off to the EU, has a presser with them telling us how she's got it sorted but without really getting the nod from her AG! Is she deluded or incompetent?
    Seems the stories that he was leant on to be upbeat about what she achieved were true.

    May has lost all perspective. She needs to walk away.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    Geoffrey Cox is positioned very well as a Brexiter man of integrity who argued in favour of the deal.

    That might be rather handy for him in any coming leadership election...

    Why would anyone sane want to be Tory leader?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    ERG will split. Question is how many diehards?

    Why? DUP are against, enough ERGers are against. This is dead. Why vote in favour.

    Expect 400+ Nays again. There's more life in John Cleese's Norwegian Blue.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    Bridgen believes the EU is as venal as he is.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    edited March 2019

    Unnamed, but I'd trust Lord Ashcroft on this:

    https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/1105438643991261184

    Wonder what Lord A makes of it all?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,772
    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC BREAKING: DUP likely to vote against

    If DUP vote against then a few dozen Tory MPs will follow their lead.

    A deal that passed with the DUP opposed would have them tabling a vote of no confidence tomorrow.
    I don't think the DUP switching would be sufficient to bring down the government, now that there are so many independents.
    On the contrary, there’s now three fewer Conservatives. Unless of course TIG decide to vote with the government? If they abstain, the government would fall with the DUP opposed.
    Heidi Allen said she would vote with the government on a VONC. If so, I think they'd scrape home, even with the DUP opposed. I'd expect the Labour TIG to abstain.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    Cyclefree said:

    Geoffrey Cox is positioned very well as a Brexiter man of integrity who argued in favour of the deal.

    That might be rather handy for him in any coming leadership election...

    Why would anyone sane want to be Tory leader?
    He may prefer to return to his day job quite soon, where he was making £400K a year iirc.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    Well only solution now is for a GE. But will it solve anything.

    something's gotta give....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    ERG will split. Question is how many diehards?

    More than not. 20+ were expected even with an assumption Cox changed his view
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Cox up.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870

    One comment on the election front - there is a very big opening for a stop brexit coalition from which one of the main parties dies.

    Haven't TIG said they want to run in every seat? That already means they've responded to the Lib Dems' friendliness by spitting in their faces. Not a good sign for the prospect of a coalition
    It's turning out to be a centrist split. We lefties are trying hard not to laugh - not least as the kaleidoscope of British politics is literally changing every day, so we could easily be despairing or rejoicing tomorrow.
    The idea that TIG are actually going to run against the Lib Dems in Oxford West & Abingdon, when the Greens stepped aside last time, is for the birds.

    Note also that Anna Soubry is speaking at the Lib Dem spring conference this weekend.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718

    One comment on the election front - there is a very big opening for a stop brexit coalition from which one of the main parties dies.

    Haven't TIG said they want to run in every seat? That already means they've responded to the Lib Dems' friendliness by spitting in their faces. Not a good sign for the prospect of a coalition
    It's turning out to be a centrist split. We lefties are trying hard not to laugh - not least as the kaleidoscope of British politics is literally changing every day, so we could easily be despairing or rejoicing tomorrow.
    As of this moment there's no TIG candidate for Newport West, and, as posted earlier, Anna Soubry is down to feature at the LibDems Spring Conference.

    Just saying.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960
    kle4 said:

    Game over for May then. Its remain in a few months.

    Like others I'm baffled Cox's view was not confirmed prior to an announcement. What a waste of time, and the EU will be furious when the deal is hugely defeated again.

    At all crucial moments in Brexit, May has got in the mix. Taken control. And fucked up.

    We are where we are because of May.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    SeanT said:

    When this Deal fails, which it will, then the Cabinet has to summon up the cullions and just tell TMay to go. If she refuses, drag her out by her stupid kitten heels. FFS. She is now an obstacle to all this, and her absurd red lines at the beginning are the reason for all this.

    Jesus. What a waste of time, energy and money.

    And what do you think they should then do? Appoint Boris as PM? Hammond? What about the party membership?

    Whilst I'm sure most MPs and party members would be delighted to see the back of her as PM, her departure would not be a solution to the immediate problem.
    At the moment it looks like the situation slowly, but steadily, becomes worse with May as PM, but it would rapidly become worse after she leaves. I find it hard to imagine a scenario that improves the political situation. What a mess!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1105443867799834624

    I suspect the clearer it becomes that the deal isn't passing, the more of these guys will go back to the No column. No point sticking their neck out to change the third digit of the majority against.

    Well indeed. What benefit in looking like they wavered now?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    TGOHF said:

    Cox up.

    Up where? :D
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    AndyJS said:

    The Commons is still going to vote against No Deal tomorrow I assume?

    Yes, you would assume that those who voted against no deal by voting for the Spelman amendment would do so again.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    At all crucial moments in Brexit, May has got in the mix. Taken control. And fucked up.

    We are where we are because of May.

    No, we are where we are because Brexit is a really, really, really bad idea.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Cyclefree said:

    Geoffrey Cox is positioned very well as a Brexiter man of integrity who argued in favour of the deal.

    That might be rather handy for him in any coming leadership election...

    Why would anyone sane want to be Tory leader?
    Have to say, reading the few paragraphs of his advice that I have seen posted here, he seems to have done a very honorable job of being honest, rather than political, in his interpretation of the agreements. That, too, should stand him in good stead.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Yes. And not enough believe the same or dont care about it. So their panic is pointless. The deal has lost, again. If they have no solutions, quit.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    edited March 2019
    Cyclefree said:

    Geoffrey Cox is positioned very well as a Brexiter man of integrity who argued in favour of the deal.

    That might be rather handy for him in any coming leadership election...

    Why would anyone sane want to be Tory leader?
    https://youtu.be/_s-JaRCnOo4?t=56

    (Timestamping didn't work. Start at 56s)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2019
    Sandpit said:

    AndyJS said:

    The Commons is still going to vote against No Deal tomorrow I assume?

    It looks like they’re going to vote against every specific option put in front of them. No deal could yet still happen by default.
    They might still vote in favour of an extension on Thursday, even if the EU has said it can't happen.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315

    ERG will split. Question is how many diehards?

    Why? DUP are against, enough ERGers are against. This is dead. Why vote in favour.

    Expect 400+ Nays again. There's more life in John Cleese's Norwegian Blue.
    Because a bad Brexit is better than no Brexit at all?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Scott_P said:
    He made essentially the same argument last time.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232
    Scott_P said:
    Ozzy seems to be suggesting that the Ultras have played a blinder and just need to hold their nerve for No Deal to be upon us. I think he's right.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    AndyJS said:

    Sandpit said:

    AndyJS said:

    The Commons is still going to vote against No Deal tomorrow I assume?

    It looks like they’re going to vote against every specific option put in front of them. No deal could yet still happen by default.
    They might still vote in favour of an extension on Thursday, even if the EU has said it can't happen.
    I don't think the "EU" can say either way for an extension, it is down to each individual country; though I suspect a 'first' extension would pass.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,772
    Scott_P said:
    It's always been about politics, rather than law.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    Scott_P said:
    Ozzy seems to be suggesting that the Ultras have played a blinder and just need to hold their nerve for No Deal to be upon us. I think he's right.
    er, what happened to Cooper/Boles/Letwin?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Scott_P said:

    At all crucial moments in Brexit, May has got in the mix. Taken control. And fucked up.

    We are where we are because of May.

    No, we are where we are because Brexit is a really, really, really bad idea.
    Absolutely. May may be shit, but the idea that someone else (who?) would magically have achieved a triumphant Brexit is just bollocks.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    brendan16 said:

    ERG will split. Question is how many diehards?

    Why? DUP are against, enough ERGers are against. This is dead. Why vote in favour.

    Expect 400+ Nays again. There's more life in John Cleese's Norwegian Blue.
    Because a bad Brexit is better than no Brexit at all?
    No its not. No deal is better than a bad deal and no Brexit is better than a bad Brexit.

    But its moot. The deal is dead. It won't win. Once its clear it won't win, why compromise on your principles and back a dead deal futilely given it won't win even if you do?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    Looks like May will be spending plenty of time in that new Snowdon cottage this spring.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2019
    None of this would have happened if the 2011 Greece crisis had been handled better. They cooked the books to enter the Euro and France and Germany turned a blind eye to it.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/greek-debt-crisis-goldman-sachs-could-be-sued-for-helping-country-hide-debts-when-it-joined-euro-10381926.html
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    It seems....unconventional for the government's top lawyer to argue that MPs should ignore the legal aspects when making their decision.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    edited March 2019
    Any sightings of Pickfords' vans near Admiralty Arch? Asking for a friend.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    brendan16 said:

    ERG will split. Question is how many diehards?

    Why? DUP are against, enough ERGers are against. This is dead. Why vote in favour.

    Expect 400+ Nays again. There's more life in John Cleese's Norwegian Blue.
    Because a bad Brexit is better than no Brexit at all?
    No its not. No deal is better than a bad deal and no Brexit is better than a bad Brexit.

    But its moot. The deal is dead. It won't win. Once its clear it won't win, why compromise on your principles and back a dead deal futilely given it won't win even if you do?
    Because a loss by 200 would bring down the government, whereas a loss by 60 would not?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704

    Scott_P said:
    Ozzy seems to be suggesting that the Ultras have played a blinder and just need to hold their nerve for No Deal to be upon us. I think he's right.
    There's more than enough stubborn bast***s which will just vote NO to any deal, because thats what they want.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Not true the favourite never always gets it e.g. May and Howard both won as favourite. Plus Portillo and Heseltine were beaten by candidates to the right of them, Boris already is the candidate of the right and is also much more charismatic and polls better than Davis does
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    It’s stark for the ERG and DUP - humiliate themselves or lose Brexit. Are they patriots, or not?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,401
    Fair play to Cox. He comes out of this with his integrity intact.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Anorak said:

    brendan16 said:

    ERG will split. Question is how many diehards?

    Why? DUP are against, enough ERGers are against. This is dead. Why vote in favour.

    Expect 400+ Nays again. There's more life in John Cleese's Norwegian Blue.
    Because a bad Brexit is better than no Brexit at all?
    No its not. No deal is better than a bad deal and no Brexit is better than a bad Brexit.

    But its moot. The deal is dead. It won't win. Once its clear it won't win, why compromise on your principles and back a dead deal futilely given it won't win even if you do?
    Because a loss by 200 would bring down the government, whereas a loss by 60 would not?
    The government needs to be brought down. That's the only chance of a change. Until May goes nothing will change.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited March 2019
    Anorak said:

    brendan16 said:

    ERG will split. Question is how many diehards?

    Why? DUP are against, enough ERGers are against. This is dead. Why vote in favour.

    Expect 400+ Nays again. There's more life in John Cleese's Norwegian Blue.
    Because a bad Brexit is better than no Brexit at all?
    No its not. No deal is better than a bad deal and no Brexit is better than a bad Brexit.

    But its moot. The deal is dead. It won't win. Once its clear it won't win, why compromise on your principles and back a dead deal futilely given it won't win even if you do?
    Because a loss by 200 would bring down the government, whereas a loss by 60 would not?
    You mean like it brought down the government last time?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    brendan16 said:

    ERG will split. Question is how many diehards?

    Why? DUP are against, enough ERGers are against. This is dead. Why vote in favour.

    Expect 400+ Nays again. There's more life in John Cleese's Norwegian Blue.
    Because a bad Brexit is better than no Brexit at all?
    No its not. No deal is better than a bad deal and no Brexit is better than a bad Brexit.

    But its moot. The deal is dead. It won't win. Once its clear it won't win, why compromise on your principles and back a dead deal futilely given it won't win even if you do?
    If the Deal is dead then Brexit is dead, the Remainer majority in Parliament will either ensure Brexit is cancelled or we only leave staying in the single market and Customs Union which is staying in the EU in all but name anyway
  • brendan16 said:

    ERG will split. Question is how many diehards?

    Why? DUP are against, enough ERGers are against. This is dead. Why vote in favour.

    Expect 400+ Nays again. There's more life in John Cleese's Norwegian Blue.
    Because a bad Brexit is better than no Brexit at all?
    No its not. No deal is better than a bad deal and no Brexit is better than a bad Brexit.

    But its moot. The deal is dead. It won't win. Once its clear it won't win, why compromise on your principles and back a dead deal futilely given it won't win even if you do?
    But no deal is not better than Mrs May's deal.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:

    brendan16 said:

    ERG will split. Question is how many diehards?

    Why? DUP are against, enough ERGers are against. This is dead. Why vote in favour.

    Expect 400+ Nays again. There's more life in John Cleese's Norwegian Blue.
    Because a bad Brexit is better than no Brexit at all?
    No its not. No deal is better than a bad deal and no Brexit is better than a bad Brexit.

    But its moot. The deal is dead. It won't win. Once its clear it won't win, why compromise on your principles and back a dead deal futilely given it won't win even if you do?
    If the Deal is dead then Brexit is dead, the Remainer majority in Parliament will either ensure Brexit is cancelled or we only leave staying in the single market and Customs Union which is staying in the EU in all but name anyway
    So be it.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,749
    A wee distraction from the clusterfuck.

    https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1105442730203844613

    Looks like Ross 'SNPgain' Thomson may not deserve his nickname. We'll just stick with 'touchy' then.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870

    Scott_P said:
    Ozzy seems to be suggesting that the Ultras have played a blinder and just need to hold their nerve for No Deal to be upon us. I think he's right.
    He might be, or as ever with Osborne, he might be conniving to his own ends. If I were a Remainer wanting the ERG to shoot themselves (and Brexit) in the foot, his editorial is exactly what I'd write.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Anorak said:

    brendan16 said:

    ERG will split. Question is how many diehards?

    Why? DUP are against, enough ERGers are against. This is dead. Why vote in favour.

    Expect 400+ Nays again. There's more life in John Cleese's Norwegian Blue.
    Because a bad Brexit is better than no Brexit at all?
    No its not. No deal is better than a bad deal and no Brexit is better than a bad Brexit.

    But its moot. The deal is dead. It won't win. Once its clear it won't win, why compromise on your principles and back a dead deal futilely given it won't win even if you do?
    Because a loss by 200 would bring down the government, whereas a loss by 60 would not?
    You mean like it brought down the government last time?
    I think you're misreading how febrile the situation is.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:

    Not true the favourite never always gets it e.g. May and Howard both won as favourite. Plus Portillo and Heseltine were beaten by candidates to the right of them, Boris already is the candidate of the right and is also much more charismatic and polls better than Davis does

    Was May favourite when Cameron announced his resignation? From memory Boris was and it was only after Gove stabbed Boris in the front that May became favourite.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:
    It's always been about politics, rather than law.
    It's pretty simple. Cox the lawyer says "here's a risk" and Cox the client says "it's worth it".
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Fair play to Cox. He comes out of this with his integrity intact.

    Poor Labour chap that is up against him - terrible mismatch.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    brendan16 said:

    ERG will split. Question is how many diehards?

    Why? DUP are against, enough ERGers are against. This is dead. Why vote in favour.

    Expect 400+ Nays again. There's more life in John Cleese's Norwegian Blue.
    Because a bad Brexit is better than no Brexit at all?
    No its not. No deal is better than a bad deal and no Brexit is better than a bad Brexit.

    But its moot. The deal is dead. It won't win. Once its clear it won't win, why compromise on your principles and back a dead deal futilely given it won't win even if you do?
    But no deal is not better than Mrs May's deal.
    Yes it is. No Brexit is and No Deal is so quite frankly I don't care much what happens next. I was willing to back it last night and this morning but frankly May's deal dies today.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960
    Spread on SPIN minimum reached (at least a local minimum). Climbing now.

    I cashed out my sell one point off the bottom and have now bought. Suspect it will climb for as long as Cox can keep talking.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Cox says vote for the deal.

  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    Just seen this:

    Kantar Public voting intention polls (7th March – 11th March 2019) show Conservative 41% (+1 vs Feb 2019), Labour 31% (-4 vs Feb 2019), Lib Dems 8% (-2), UKIP 6% (+3), SNP 5% (+1), Green 6% (+2), Other 2% (-2).
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    brendan16 said:

    ERG will split. Question is how many diehards?

    Why? DUP are against, enough ERGers are against. This is dead. Why vote in favour.

    Expect 400+ Nays again. There's more life in John Cleese's Norwegian Blue.
    Because a bad Brexit is better than no Brexit at all?
    No its not. No deal is better than a bad deal and no Brexit is better than a bad Brexit.

    But its moot. The deal is dead. It won't win. Once its clear it won't win, why compromise on your principles and back a dead deal futilely given it won't win even if you do?
    But no deal is not better than Mrs May's deal.
    Yes it is. No Brexit is and No Deal is so quite frankly I don't care much what happens next. I was willing to back it last night and this morning but frankly May's deal dies today.
    You were willing to back it? Why?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    TGOHF said:

    Cox says vote for the deal.

    He said it last time too.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401

    HYUFD said:

    Not true the favourite never always gets it e.g. May and Howard both won as favourite. Plus Portillo and Heseltine were beaten by candidates to the right of them, Boris already is the candidate of the right and is also much more charismatic and polls better than Davis does

    Was May favourite when Cameron announced his resignation? From memory Boris was and it was only after Gove stabbed Boris in the front that May became favourite.
    Well, by definition, the person who wins will have been favourite at some point.

    But yes, I think Boris was favourite at the moment at which the vacancy became apparent. I don't know what the score was in 2003 but it wasn't obvious that there would be a coronation and there was certainly speculation that David Davis would be a strong contender.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    brendan16 said:

    ERG will split. Question is how many diehards?

    Why? DUP are against, enough ERGers are against. This is dead. Why vote in favour.

    Expect 400+ Nays again. There's more life in John Cleese's Norwegian Blue.
    Because a bad Brexit is better than no Brexit at all?
    No its not. No deal is better than a bad deal and no Brexit is better than a bad Brexit.

    But its moot. The deal is dead. It won't win. Once its clear it won't win, why compromise on your principles and back a dead deal futilely given it won't win even if you do?
    But no deal is not better than Mrs May's deal.
    Yes it is. No Brexit is and No Deal is so quite frankly I don't care much what happens next. I was willing to back it last night and this morning but frankly May's deal dies today.
    You were willing to back it? Why?
    I thought the changes last night meant something. I was wrong.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    I believe the preferred form is 'Oh Jeremy'.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697

    Just seen this:

    Kantar Public voting intention polls (7th March – 11th March 2019) show Conservative 41% (+1 vs Feb 2019), Labour 31% (-4 vs Feb 2019), Lib Dems 8% (-2), UKIP 6% (+3), SNP 5% (+1), Green 6% (+2), Other 2% (-2).

    Maybe Theresa will have another election if her deal gets thrown out? :D
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    GIN1138 said:

    Just seen this:

    Kantar Public voting intention polls (7th March – 11th March 2019) show Conservative 41% (+1 vs Feb 2019), Labour 31% (-4 vs Feb 2019), Lib Dems 8% (-2), UKIP 6% (+3), SNP 5% (+1), Green 6% (+2), Other 2% (-2).

    Maybe Theresa will have another election if her deal gets thrown out? :D
    It might be the only way forward....
This discussion has been closed.