Not true the favourite never always gets it e.g. May and Howard both won as favourite. Plus Portillo and Heseltine were beaten by candidates to the right of them, Boris already is the candidate of the right and is also much more charismatic and polls better than Davis does
Was May favourite when Cameron announced his resignation? From memory Boris was and it was only after Gove stabbed Boris in the front that May became favourite.
Well, by definition, the person who wins will have been favourite at some point.
But yes, I think Boris was favourite at the moment at which the vacancy became apparent. I don't know what the score was in 2003 but it wasn't obvious that there would be a coronation and there was certainly speculation that David Davis would be a strong contender.
Indeed which is why any changes in who becomes favourite after the vacancy becomes apparent shouldn't count.
Ozzy seems to be suggesting that the Ultras have played a blinder and just need to hold their nerve for No Deal to be upon us. I think he's right.
He might be, or as ever with Osborne, he might be conniving to his own ends. If I were a Remainer wanting the ERG to shoot themselves (and Brexit) in the foot, his editorial is exactly what I'd write.
And, he may favour No Deal, because he thinks the worst is best.
Not true the favourite never always gets it e.g. May and Howard both won as favourite. Plus Portillo and Heseltine were beaten by candidates to the right of them, Boris already is the candidate of the right and is also much more charismatic and polls better than Davis does
Was May favourite when Cameron announced his resignation? From memory Boris was and it was only after Gove stabbed Boris in the front that May became favourite.
Boris did not stand in the end, so yes May was favourite of the declared candidates.
In any case given if the Deal fails Brexit is likely to be cancelled or in such a BINO form as to be worthless given the numbers in the Commons the Tories will need Boris to lead them to contain the inevitable surge to the Farage Brexit Party and UKIP
Why? DUP are against, enough ERGers are against. This is dead. Why vote in favour.
Expect 400+ Nays again. There's more life in John Cleese's Norwegian Blue.
Because a bad Brexit is better than no Brexit at all?
No its not. No deal is better than a bad deal and no Brexit is better than a bad Brexit.
But its moot. The deal is dead. It won't win. Once its clear it won't win, why compromise on your principles and back a dead deal futilely given it won't win even if you do?
Because a loss by 200 would bring down the government, whereas a loss by 60 would not?
You mean like it brought down the government last time?
I think you're misreading how febrile the situation is.
I agree. It is possible - and I'm not necessarily predicting this as a scenario - that more Con MPs could jump ship to TIG if it looked like the ERG were trying to engineer a No Deal, and that they would prefer to ensure an A50 extension through whatever means necessary than be complicit in No Deal.
Not true the favourite never always gets it e.g. May and Howard both won as favourite. Plus Portillo and Heseltine were beaten by candidates to the right of them, Boris already is the candidate of the right and is also much more charismatic and polls better than Davis does
Was May favourite when Cameron announced his resignation? From memory Boris was and it was only after Gove stabbed Boris in the front that May became favourite.
Boris did not stand in the end, so yes May was favourite of the declared candidates.
In any case given if the Deal fails Brexit is likely to be cancelled or in such a BINO form as to be worthless given the numbers in the Commons the Tories will need Boris to lead them to contain the inevitable surge to the Farage Brexit Party and UKIP
That's completely meaningless. So May was not favourite.
Of today's candidates who's going to stand? We don't know.
Why? DUP are against, enough ERGers are against. This is dead. Why vote in favour.
Expect 400+ Nays again. There's more life in John Cleese's Norwegian Blue.
Because a bad Brexit is better than no Brexit at all?
No its not. No deal is better than a bad deal and no Brexit is better than a bad Brexit.
But its moot. The deal is dead. It won't win. Once its clear it won't win, why compromise on your principles and back a dead deal futilely given it won't win even if you do?
Because a loss by 200 would bring down the government, whereas a loss by 60 would not?
You mean like it brought down the government last time?
I think you're misreading how febrile the situation is.
I agree. It is possible - and I'm not necessarily predicting this as a scenario - that more Con MPs could jump ship to TIG if it looked like the ERG were trying to engineer a No Deal, and that they would prefer to ensure an A50 extension through whatever means necessary than be complicit in No Deal.
Why? DUP are against, enough ERGers are against. This is dead. Why vote in favour.
Expect 400+ Nays again. There's more life in John Cleese's Norwegian Blue.
Because a bad Brexit is better than no Brexit at all?
No its not. No deal is better than a bad deal and no Brexit is better than a bad Brexit.
But its moot. The deal is dead. It won't win. Once its clear it won't win, why compromise on your principles and back a dead deal futilely given it won't win even if you do?
Because a loss by 200 would bring down the government, whereas a loss by 60 would not?
You mean like it brought down the government last time?
I think you're misreading how febrile the situation is.
I agree. It is possible - and I'm not necessarily predicting this as a scenario - that more Con MPs could jump ship to TIG if it looked like the ERG were trying to engineer a No Deal, and that they would prefer to ensure an A50 extension through whatever means necessary than be complicit in No Deal.
I thought HoC would be voting tomorrow on No Deal? And there was no way that vote would be lost i.e. No Deal off the table and extension.
Not true the favourite never always gets it e.g. May and Howard both won as favourite. Plus Portillo and Heseltine were beaten by candidates to the right of them, Boris already is the candidate of the right and is also much more charismatic and polls better than Davis does
Was May favourite when Cameron announced his resignation? From memory Boris was and it was only after Gove stabbed Boris in the front that May became favourite.
Boris did not stand in the end, so yes May was favourite of the declared candidates.
In any case given if the Deal fails Brexit is likely to be cancelled or in such a BINO form as to be worthless given the numbers in the Commons the Tories will need Boris to lead them to contain the inevitable surge to the Farage Brexit Party and UKIP
That's completely meaningless. So May was not favourite.
Of today's candidates who's going to stand? We don't know.
No it is not meaningless, May was favourite of the declared candidates. End of conversation.
If Brexit is cancelled, as is likely if the Deal is rejected, obviously the Tories have to.pick a hard Leaves like Boris or Raab or risk being eclipsed by the new Farage Party or UKIP
It's pretty simple. Cox the lawyer says "here's a risk" and Cox the client says "it's worth it".
Yep. That’s it in a nutshell.
So Cox has bottled it and sold the country a pup. Exactly what everybody expected since the crap deal was proposed. He must have gone and got Tony's AG rule book out of the cupboard.
Why? DUP are against, enough ERGers are against. This is dead. Why vote in favour.
Expect 400+ Nays again. There's more life in John Cleese's Norwegian Blue.
Because a bad Brexit is better than no Brexit at all?
No its not. No deal is better than a bad deal and no Brexit is better than a bad Brexit.
But its moot. The deal is dead. It won't win. Once its clear it won't win, why compromise on your principles and back a dead deal futilely given it won't win even if you do?
Because a loss by 200 would bring down the government, whereas a loss by 60 would not?
You mean like it brought down the government last time?
I think you're misreading how febrile the situation is.
I agree. It is possible - and I'm not necessarily predicting this as a scenario - that more Con MPs could jump ship to TIG if it looked like the ERG were trying to engineer a No Deal, and that they would prefer to ensure an A50 extension through whatever means necessary than be complicit in No Deal.
I thought HoC would be voting tomorrow on No Deal? And there was no way that vote would be lost i.e. No Deal off the table and extension.
Why do these Tories need to join TIG to do that?
Yep. If anything a narrow defeat would be seen by May as license to continue her game of chicken, which increases the chance of no deal (especially if we get a short extension, as we'd be unlikely to then get another). That could then force Remain-/soft Brexit-leaning Tories to move against her.
Why? DUP are against, enough ERGers are against. This is dead. Why vote in favour.
Expect 400+ Nays again. There's more life in John Cleese's Norwegian Blue.
Because a bad Brexit is better than no Brexit at all?
No its not. No deal is better than a bad deal and no Brexit is better than a bad Brexit.
But its moot. The deal is dead. It won't win. Once its clear it won't win, why compromise on your principles and back a dead deal futilely given it won't win even if you do?
Because a loss by 200 would bring down the government, whereas a loss by 60 would not?
You mean like it brought down the government last time?
I think you're misreading how febrile the situation is.
I agree. It is possible - and I'm not necessarily predicting this as a scenario - that more Con MPs could jump ship to TIG if it looked like the ERG were trying to engineer a No Deal, and that they would prefer to ensure an A50 extension through whatever means necessary than be complicit in No Deal.
I thought HoC would be voting tomorrow on No Deal? And there was no way that vote would be lost i.e. No Deal off the table and extension.
Why do these Tories need to join TIG to do that?
Voting against No Deal doesn't prevent No Deal, any more than voting against the sun setting will stop it getting dark.
Only voting *for* some practical measure that will prevent No Deal, will prevent it. As the law stands, Britain leaves the EU a fortnight on Friday, with or without a deal: parliamentary motions won't change that - only an extension, a revocation, or parliamentary ratification of a WA/FR deal.
Did my best trying to guesstimate a distribution, and it looks to be near flat between about 230 and 290 - ie two peaks with the trough inbetween filled in considerably.
One thing that puzzles me is why should any supporter of Remain, like Sam Gyimah, have a problem with the backstop? Surely, it has the effect of softening, rather than hardening, Brexit.
They are not interested in any form of Brexit at all.
Well I can't speak for Sam Gyimah, but as a remainer up until last November I was very much in favour of the deal. I'd have preferred permanent membership of the customs union but the backstop seemed like at least a way of staying in it until things calmed down a bit.
But back then there didn't seem any realistic way of getting out of Brexit altogether. The only democratic way was a second vote - and the result of that was about 50:50. And who wants to win a referendum on a narrow margin anyway?
But since the new year all the shenanigans have undermined support for Brexit to such an extent that stopping the whole sorry episode now looks realistic.
Not true the favourite never always gets it e.g. May and Howard both won as favourite. Plus Portillo and Heseltine were beaten by candidates to the right of them, Boris already is the candidate of the right and is also much more charismatic and polls better than Davis does
Was May favourite when Cameron announced his resignation? From memory Boris was and it was only after Gove stabbed Boris in the front that May became favourite.
Well, by definition, the person who wins will have been favourite at some point....
I'm not sure that's true. It's entirely possible that a person may be elected without ever having been favourite. Popes are the obvious example.
If DUP vote against then a few dozen Tory MPs will follow their lead.
A deal that passed with the DUP opposed would have them tabling a vote of no confidence tomorrow.
I don't think the DUP switching would be sufficient to bring down the government, now that there are so many independents.
On the contrary, there’s now three fewer Conservatives. Unless of course TIG decide to vote with the government? If they abstain, the government would fall with the DUP opposed.
I'm still hoping (for the Lolz more than anything) that Sinn Fein will rock up this afternoon and take the oath (fingers crossed of course). That'd throw the cat in amongst the pigeons.
Although Survation had them 7 points up in the most recent other poll?!
Ignore this: Wikipedia had inserted a poll from last year into the 2019 stats. Annoyingly, I did go into the article linked as it seemed very odd but when it checked out, I accepted it. Should have checked the dates!
Not true the favourite never always gets it e.g. May and Howard both won as favourite. Plus Portillo and Heseltine were beaten by candidates to the right of them, Boris already is the candidate of the right and is also much more charismatic and polls better than Davis does
Was May favourite when Cameron announced his resignation? From memory Boris was and it was only after Gove stabbed Boris in the front that May became favourite.
Well, by definition, the person who wins will have been favourite at some point....
I'm not sure that's true. It's entirely possible that a person may be elected without ever having been favourite. Popes are the obvious example.
The Vatican tends to be less open to polling during the process!
Mrs May has negotiated a deal that relies extensively on the EU's good faith. The problem has always been that Leavers really don't trust the EU, but the Remainers do.
Tony's Blair's "We'll give back some of our rebate if you revise the CAP" was a classic of naïve meeting hard-headed EU practice. Sending soft, fluffy EU-fans who trust those nice men in Brussels was never going to end well.
Blair, Cammo, and May have found that out. Given their history, why would Leavers trust them?
A real sense of frustration seems to be growing against the ERG by some who previously voted against but are now voting for it. I think the ERG may well be in the process of destroying their own dream .
Comments
"It’s stark for the ERG and DUP - humiliate themselves or lose Brexit. Are they patriots, or not?"
Lose Brexit means losing faith in our political democracy. It was always a fragile thing anyway, so … so be it.
In any case given if the Deal fails Brexit is likely to be cancelled or in such a BINO form as to be worthless given the numbers in the Commons the Tories will need Boris to lead them to contain the inevitable surge to the Farage Brexit Party and UKIP
https://twitter.com/WhatScotsThink/status/1105386458561564672?s=20
Of today's candidates who's going to stand? We don't know.
Why do these Tories need to join TIG to do that?
Joanna was a good advocate and is a capable speaker. It’s good that Cox has to address the Anderson opinion.
If Brexit is cancelled, as is likely if the Deal is rejected, obviously the Tories have to.pick a hard Leaves like Boris or Raab or risk being eclipsed by the new Farage Party or UKIP
https://twitter.com/PCollinsTimes/status/1105451640226828288
NEW THREAD
Only voting *for* some practical measure that will prevent No Deal, will prevent it. As the law stands, Britain leaves the EU a fortnight on Friday, with or without a deal: parliamentary motions won't change that - only an extension, a revocation, or parliamentary ratification of a WA/FR deal.
Did my best trying to guesstimate a distribution, and it looks to be near flat between about 230 and 290 - ie two peaks with the trough inbetween filled in considerably.
But back then there didn't seem any realistic way of getting out of Brexit altogether. The only democratic way was a second vote - and the result of that was about 50:50. And who wants to win a referendum on a narrow margin anyway?
But since the new year all the shenanigans have undermined support for Brexit to such an extent that stopping the whole sorry episode now looks realistic.
Tony's Blair's "We'll give back some of our rebate if you revise the CAP" was a classic of naïve meeting hard-headed EU practice. Sending soft, fluffy EU-fans who trust those nice men in Brussels was never going to end well.
Blair, Cammo, and May have found that out. Given their history, why would Leavers trust them?