Back in Bangkok, actually. The sun broils, the curries are hot, the ladyboys parade. I love these tropical evenings. The curve of the moon looks like a fallen platinum eyelash, a Halloween pumpkin smile, a shaving of gold from God’s workbench. The skyscrapers glitter, like surgical steel.
My condolences. Bangkok is a sprawling, grimy, polluted shithole, though better than Jakarta or Manila. Head to the islands or Ayyuthaya instead. Much nicer.
You’re new here. You may not realise I am, literally, the Times Luxury Travel Correspondent. Here’s a piece from this Saturday, on my recent tour of Vietnam (££)
In that light, forgive me if I completely ignore your ludicrously inferior travel advice, on the basis that I probably know, better than anyone in Britain, where to have a very nice time - given that I am paid by the Times to do precisely that.
Is today the day 'that Brexit died' to misquote American pie?
We know if the Deal fails tonight the Commons will overwhelmingly reject No Deal tomorrow and vote for extension of Article 59 on Thursday, the EU will likely demand Remain v Deal referendum ad its price, the Commons will agree to avoid No Deal and Remain likely would win it now
Also likely the day democracy died if your timeline is accurate.
Boeing have 400 737 - 8 in service and 5000 on order
They have a very serious problem but I for one would not fly on one especially with my grand children
Where are those 400 located / owned ?
Most of them are in the US and China. The US airlines have so far sided with Boeing but they’re going to come under increasing pressure given most of the rest of the world seems to be grounding.
Germany (Heckler and Koch), Italy (Berreta) and Austria (Glock) are manufacturers of firearms. In a no-deal brexit, lorries will be waved thru customs unchecked. How many sub machine guns or semi-automatics would you like...?
What do we do at the moment ?
We inculcate dreams of a final unconditional victory...
Why? DUP are against, enough ERGers are against. This is dead. Why vote in favour.
Expect 400+ Nays again. There's more life in John Cleese's Norwegian Blue.
Because a bad Brexit is better than no Brexit at all?
No its not. No deal is better than a bad deal and no Brexit is better than a bad Brexit.
But its moot. The deal is dead. It won't win. Once its clear it won't win, why compromise on your principles and back a dead deal futilely given it won't win even if you do?
Because a loss by 200 would bring down the government, whereas a loss by 60 would not?
You mean like it brought down the government last time?
I think you're misreading how febrile the situation is.
I agree. It is possible - and I'm not necessarily predicting this as a scenario - that more Con MPs could jump ship to TIG if it looked like the ERG were trying to engineer a No Deal, and that they would prefer to ensure an A50 extension through whatever means necessary than be complicit in No Deal.
I thought HoC would be voting tomorrow on No Deal? And there was no way that vote would be lost i.e. No Deal off the table and extension.
Why do these Tories need to join TIG to do that?
Because voting against No Deal doesn't prevent No Deal, any more than voting against the sun setting stops it getting dark. If you want to stop No Deal then you have to vote *for* something.
The easiest thing to vote for is an A50 extension but that has to be more than 3 months otherwise the UK drives up a cul-de-sac with No Deal very clearly at the end of it. However, asking for more than 3 months might not be something the government is willing to do, depending on what terms come with it. That's the point at which the TIG option comes into play.
Germany (Heckler and Koch), Italy (Berreta) and Austria (Glock) are manufacturers of firearms. In a no-deal brexit, lorries will be waved thru customs unchecked. How many sub machine guns or semi-automatics would you like...?
What do we do at the moment ?
We inculcate dreams of a final unconditional victory...
Cox confirming for the headbangers that it would be perfectly possible for a headbanger government to resile from the treaty.
Too late. They've already announced the view, too embarrassing to change now. Fair play to Cox for not altering his professional view as much as the politics required it if he felt that was not justified, but it was needed for a reason.
The Commons might as well be a pb thread right now for all the weight the words spoken now will have on the vote.
Shall we just have a civil war? I think that’s the last option left. Take it outside, like men.
You won't last long Sean.
He will. He's in Nepal!
Back in Bangkok, actually. The sun broils, the curries are hot, the ladyboys parade. I love these tropical evenings. The curve of the moon looks like a fallen platinum eyelash, a Halloween pumpkin smile, a shaving of gold from God’s workbench. The skyscrapers glitter, like surgical steel.
Very evocative. Have you considered taking up writing as a career?
Back in Bangkok, actually. The sun broils, the curries are hot, the ladyboys parade. I love these tropical evenings. The curve of the moon looks like a fallen platinum eyelash, a Halloween pumpkin smile, a shaving of gold from God’s workbench. The skyscrapers glitter, like surgical steel.
My condolences. Bangkok is a sprawling, grimy, polluted shithole, though better than Jakarta or Manila. Head to the islands or Ayyuthaya instead. Much nicer.
You’re new here. You may not realise I am, literally, the Times Luxury Travel Correspondent. Here’s a piece from this Saturday, on my recent tour of Vietnam (££)
In that light, forgive me if I completely ignore your ludicrously inferior travel advice, on the basis that I probably know, better than anyone in Britain, where to have a very nice time - given that I am paid by the Times to do precisely that.
My wife and children are booked to fly with Icelandair in a few weeks. Is there any way to tell whether their flight is booked to be on a Boeing 8 Max or not?
Nothing up on Icelandair's website or on their Twitter page that I can see regarding this.
I think the future PPE finals question will be “At what point did the U.K. cease to be a meaningful political community?”
We have lost Protestantism, the Empire, and cannot resist a European hegemon that formed through willing cooperation rather than armed conquest. EU membership has been the solvent that has dissolved the last bonds of unity, and massively diluted the economic case for Britain.
My wife and children are booked to fly with Icelandair in a few weeks. Is there any way to tell whether their flight is booked to be on a Boeing 8 Max or not?
Nothing up on Icelandair's website or on their Twitter page that I can see regarding this.
You can probably tell using the seat map. They only have four of them, so chances are small.
I'm glad I don't have these headbangers as clients - their attitude to risk would be hard to score... willing to risk UK economy, jobs, growth, smaller role in the world etc (see Remainers list of risks) but not willing to accept a legal potential scenario whilst still achieving their objective return otherwise.
Does my head in.
these are people who cycle at night wearing black with no lights but are also comforted by their insurance policy against a giant meteorite hitting Earth.
"Jacob Rees-Mogg, the Tory Brexiter and chair of the ERG, asks what penalties would fall on the UK if a future parliament ignored its obligations under the backstop.
Cox says, as a law officer, he would not recommend breaking the law. But if circumstances changed fundamentally, the UK would be able to withdraw from the backstop. A sovereign country can resile from a treaty if circumstances change fundamentally. But he also says that it would be unwise for the country to ignore its legal obligations. This country would not do it, he says." - The Guardian
The return of perfidious Albion; no treaty safe with us...
OT - I'd be happy with a Referendum now or an alternative softer Brexit deal. I su.spect the die is now cast for a referendum on a united Ireland which would be a just reward for the DUP/ERG. I still think there is also a goodish chance of No Brexit. Indeed the least likely option now is No deal - another just reward for the diehards.
If there is no Brexit or a very soft Brexit why on earth would a united Ireland be more likely? We’d be staying in the Single Market and CU, so there would be no hard border. And after the Brexit experience, I don’t think anyone in these isles will be in the mood for another wrenching referendum anytime soon. The same, I think, applies in Scotland.
No Deal IS a direct threat to the Union, though the chaos and turmoil would make any vote quite hard to call.
I think the DUP have seriously pissed off the centre in NI with their antics. A united Ireland is now very much on the cards while I think Scotland is less likely to go.
I am saddened by the likely loss of the deal tonight and find no comfort in the prospect of a referendum or more especially remaining in the EU, without ever acting on the original referendum.
If remainers think all will be fine if we stay in the EU the ill feeling towards the EU will be intense for years to come and I doubt we will be anything other than a difficult party, especially under a brexiteer led conservative government
This has no good endings but TM deal will in hindsight be seen as the best we could have achieved
There's no intelligence test for MPs is there. Even when they had it there appears to be a better than even chance of it being removed upon becoming a MP.
If you’re thinking about her position as PM, probably not, she’d have to speak to HM first.
A GE, not sure. Technically the government doesn’t need HMs go-ahead now, just needs to rely on the FTPA. Was Liz consulted last time?
I think it was said in 2017 that she phoned Liz to tell her about the election the night before she announced it. Dunno if that was required, or just a courtesy.
My wife and children are booked to fly with Icelandair in a few weeks. Is there any way to tell whether their flight is booked to be on a Boeing 8 Max or not?
Nothing up on Icelandair's website or on their Twitter page that I can see regarding this.
Noone will be flying out of UK airspace on an 8 Max, and quite rightly so. So I assume if the flight was originally going to be an 8-Max it'd be another Boeing, or more likely being a european(ish) operator the fleet would mainly be Airbus.
My wife and children are booked to fly with Icelandair in a few weeks. Is there any way to tell whether their flight is booked to be on a Boeing 8 Max or not?
Nothing up on Icelandair's website or on their Twitter page that I can see regarding this.
Noone will be flying out of UK airspace on an 8 Max, and quite rightly so. So I assume if the flight was originally going to be an 8-Max it'd be another Boeing, or more likely being a european(ish) operator the fleet would mainly be Airbus.
So the flight would still be going ahead? I'm worried we're going to be told the flight is cancelled.
We don't know how the government will whip on the No Deal vote yet. Seems pretty hard to go either way without prompting cabinet resignations. If it whips for No Deal, then the PM could be looking for a new chancellor to deliver the Spring Statement.
Alternatively, it could have no whip and admit that it's completely lost any semblance of control.
My wife and children are booked to fly with Icelandair in a few weeks. Is there any way to tell whether their flight is booked to be on a Boeing 8 Max or not?
Nothing up on Icelandair's website or on their Twitter page that I can see regarding this.
What if May had the bottle to turn up and say this is not a vote of confidence in my government but a vote of confidence in me. I have done my best. I will resign if I lose. It would certainly put the cat amongst the pigeons.
My wife and children are booked to fly with Icelandair in a few weeks. Is there any way to tell whether their flight is booked to be on a Boeing 8 Max or not?
Nothing up on Icelandair's website or on their Twitter page that I can see regarding this.
Noone will be flying out of UK airspace on an 8 Max, and quite rightly so. So I assume if the flight was originally going to be an 8-Max it'd be another Boeing, or more likely being a european(ish) operator the fleet would mainly be Airbus.
Icelandair's model is hubbing through Reyjavik so even if no MAX8 is operated to the UK, if your final destination is anywhere but Reyjavik, the second leg could be on a MAX. Icelandair's fleet is Boeing.
My wife and children are booked to fly with Icelandair in a few weeks. Is there any way to tell whether their flight is booked to be on a Boeing 8 Max or not?
Nothing up on Icelandair's website or on their Twitter page that I can see regarding this.
I recently flew back from iceland on icelandair on a 737 max. should say on your ticjet
We don't know how the government will whip on the No Deal vote yet. Seems pretty hard to go either way without prompting cabinet resignations. If it whips for No Deal, then the PM could be looking for a new chancellor to deliver the Spring Statement.
Alternatively, it could have no whip and admit that it's completely lost any semblance of control.
If it WIPs for a no-deal, that IS the point where TIG get a whole load of new converts in the house...
My wife and children are booked to fly with Icelandair in a few weeks. Is there any way to tell whether their flight is booked to be on a Boeing 8 Max or not?
Nothing up on Icelandair's website or on their Twitter page that I can see regarding this.
I assume they will be in touch if they have 737 - 8 planes as they are grounded in the UK at present
Back in Bangkok, actually. The sun broils, the curries are hot, the ladyboys parade. I love these tropical evenings. The curve of the moon looks like a fallen platinum eyelash, a Halloween pumpkin smile, a shaving of gold from God’s workbench. The skyscrapers glitter, like surgical steel.
My condolences. Bangkok is a sprawling, grimy, polluted shithole, though better than Jakarta or Manila. Head to the islands or Ayyuthaya instead. Much nicer.
You’re new here. You may not realise I am, literally, the Times Luxury Travel Correspondent. Here’s a piece from this Saturday, on my recent tour of Vietnam (££)
In that light, forgive me if I completely ignore your ludicrously inferior travel advice, on the basis that I probably know, better than anyone in Britain, where to have a very nice time - given that I am paid by the Times to do precisely that.
Alternatively, it could have no whip and admit that it's completely lost any semblance of control.
It's been pretty obvious they're not in control of anything for months and they seem to have the strongest mid-term polling lead any government has seen in decades, so at this point it seems like a semblance of control is overrated.
My wife and children are booked to fly with Icelandair in a few weeks. Is there any way to tell whether their flight is booked to be on a Boeing 8 Max or not?
Nothing up on Icelandair's website or on their Twitter page that I can see regarding this.
I assume they will be in touch if they have 737 - 8 planes as they are grounded in the UK at present
They have some planes and do fly them out of Manchester, I just don't know whether our flights going to be affected or not.
I am saddened by the likely loss of the deal tonight and find no comfort in the prospect of a referendum or more especially remaining in the EU, without ever acting on the original referendum.
If remainers think all will be fine if we stay in the EU the ill feeling towards the EU will be intense for years to come and I doubt we will be anything other than a difficult party, especially under a brexiteer led conservative government
This has no good endings but TM deal will in hindsight be seen as the best we could have achieved
If the deal falls, there are very few good options for anyone who does not look forward to more uncertainty and the possibility of a lengthy period of utter chaos.
The route to any kind of second referendum is necessarily convoluted, and there is very little time left to cobble it together. There is certainly no quick handwaving to accomplish it.
What if May had the bottle to turn up and say this is not a vote of confidence in my government but a vote of confidence in me. I have done my best. I will resign if I lose. It would certainly put the cat amongst the pigeons.
She lost by 230 last time - might be even higher if she followed your suggestion.
My wife and children are booked to fly with Icelandair in a few weeks. Is there any way to tell whether their flight is booked to be on a Boeing 8 Max or not?
Nothing up on Icelandair's website or on their Twitter page that I can see regarding this.
Noone will be flying out of UK airspace on an 8 Max, and quite rightly so. So I assume if the flight was originally going to be an 8-Max it'd be another Boeing, or more likely being a european(ish) operator the fleet would mainly be Airbus.
My wife and children are booked to fly with Icelandair in a few weeks. Is there any way to tell whether their flight is booked to be on a Boeing 8 Max or not?
Nothing up on Icelandair's website or on their Twitter page that I can see regarding this.
I assume they will be in touch if they have 737 - 8 planes as they are grounded in the UK at present
They have some planes and do fly them out of Manchester, I just don't know whether our flights going to be affected or not.
Ask them the question on twitter maybe (With the obvious bias that you'd rather not), social media pressure can nudge companies these days.
We don't know how the government will whip on the No Deal vote yet. Seems pretty hard to go either way without prompting cabinet resignations. If it whips for No Deal, then the PM could be looking for a new chancellor to deliver the Spring Statement.
Alternatively, it could have no whip and admit that it's completely lost any semblance of control.
The government whipped against the Spelman amendment, so consistency suggests that they will whip to keep no deal as an option.
My wife and children are booked to fly with Icelandair in a few weeks. Is there any way to tell whether their flight is booked to be on a Boeing 8 Max or not?
Nothing up on Icelandair's website or on their Twitter page that I can see regarding this.
Noone will be flying out of UK airspace on an 8 Max, and quite rightly so. So I assume if the flight was originally going to be an 8-Max it'd be another Boeing, or more likely being a european(ish) operator the fleet would mainly be Airbus.
So the flight would still be going ahead? I'm worried we're going to be told the flight is cancelled.
That is a possibility, but FI could get in some wet-leased planes to cover, like Norwegian did when their 787s were having their engines fixed.
I wouldn't worry too much right now about it though. The aviation authorities are grounding the Maxes to a) reassure the public and b) get Boeing to get its finger out.
Either Boeing will satisfactorily demonstrate the Max is safe, and that the two crashes were unrelated (which is still quite possible to be the case) or it will find and fix the issue. Chances are that the Maxes will be flying again by the time you and your family are.
"Jacob Rees-Mogg, the Tory Brexiter and chair of the ERG, asks what penalties would fall on the UK if a future parliament ignored its obligations under the backstop.
Cox says, as a law officer, he would not recommend breaking the law. But if circumstances changed fundamentally, the UK would be able to withdraw from the backstop. A sovereign country can resile from a treaty if circumstances change fundamentally. But he also says that it would be unwise for the country to ignore its legal obligations. This country would not do it, he says." - The Guardian
The return of perfidious Albion; no treaty safe with us...
On the contrary - we would be entering into a treaty with clear notice that a government of headbangers might resile from it.
And arrangement unlikely to be duplicated any time soon.
It turns out the Irish government did not overplay its hand.
Earlier today you were confidently predicting a victory for the Deal, even though we told you this was unlikely. So your further utterances must be seen in that context.
UK participation in the EP elections could well shift the local elections to the same day. Local Campaign Managers won't be that involved in the former; the latter is their bread-and-butter.
The £ has recovered much of the lost ground against the EURO - I suspect the markets feel soft Brexit or remain now in the ascendency. On T. May - many mistakes made but the majority of the problems are really much more to do with the nature of the task set rather than the person charged with delivery. Seriously who'd have done much better?
Is today the day 'that Brexit died' to misquote American pie?
We know if the Deal fails tonight the Commons will overwhelmingly reject No Deal tomorrow and vote for extension of Article 59 on Thursday, the EU will likely demand Remain v Deal referendum ad its price, the Commons will agree to avoid No Deal and Remain likely would win it now
Also likely the day democracy died if your timeline is accurate.
I think democracy is in fine shape. All the time there seemed to be a majority for Brexit it was taken seriously. But the composition of the HOC reflected the difference ideas about what Brexit meant. And now the public have cooled off the idea it looks like parliament is going to find a way to get us off the hook. The will of the people has been represented pretty well.
My wife and children are booked to fly with Icelandair in a few weeks. Is there any way to tell whether their flight is booked to be on a Boeing 8 Max or not?
Nothing up on Icelandair's website or on their Twitter page that I can see regarding this.
Noone will be flying out of UK airspace on an 8 Max, and quite rightly so. So I assume if the flight was originally going to be an 8-Max it'd be another Boeing, or more likely being a european(ish) operator the fleet would mainly be Airbus.
Nationality of the airline doesn't determine the source of their fleet very much. BA's long-haul fleet is predominantly Boeing, whereas US carriers like American and JetBlue have large Airbus fleets.
Mrs May has negotiated a deal that relies extensively on the EU's good faith. The problem has always been that Leavers really don't trust the EU, but the Remainers do.
Tony's Blair's "We'll give back some of our rebate if you revise the CAP" was a classic of naïve meeting hard-headed EU practice. Sending soft, fluffy EU-fans who trust those nice men in Brussels was never going to end well.
Blair, Cammo, and May have found that out. Given their history, why would Leavers trust them?
I think the future PPE finals question will be “At what point did the U.K. cease to be a meaningful political community?”
We have lost Protestantism, the Empire, and cannot resist a European hegemon that formed through willing cooperation rather than armed conquest. EU membership has been the solvent that has dissolved the last bonds of unity, and massively diluted the economic case for Britain.
Perhaps we really are finished.
The EU was designed to do this. To dissolve allegiance to nations, to disaggregate them. The same is happening in Spain.
It’s one of the reasons us eurosceptics have hated it from the start. But no one listened to us, until it was too late and leaving became impossibly hard.
As of today, we're legally set to leave the EU at 11pm, two weeks on Friday. This means that the only three options are:
1 - We sign a Deal 2 - We extend the deadline (includes extension+GE, extension+ref, extension+alternate deal, extension+fannying about and achieving nothing) 3 - We leave with No Deal
(NB - Item 3 is the default if nothing changes)
Deal-wise, this is the only one on the table. Chance of it passing - maybe 5%? Stranger things have happened.
If we ask to extend the deadline, my guess it will be "long, or nothing." With EU elections coming up, they need clarity on whether or not we'll be standing. If we're in them, we should run to the end of the budget period. If we're not, then it truly is "Deal or No Deal; we Brexit nevertheless". I can only see that happening if Parliament gets pretty close to passing it and May can convince the EU that one more heave will absolutely and genuinely get it over the line.
No-one (well, no-one in Parliament other than the loons) wants item 3, but if we're gridlocked, or if the EU overplay their hand in extension discussions ("You can have one, but give Spain Gibraltar"), it happens in 17 days and 9 hours, anyway.
My best guesses at odds:
- Deal (5%) [includes with short extension] - Long extension (60%) - No Deal (35%) - Other unexpected <1% - [Note that the first three are approximate to allow for that <1%]
I am saddened by the likely loss of the deal tonight and find no comfort in the prospect of a referendum or more especially remaining in the EU, without ever acting on the original referendum.
If remainers think all will be fine if we stay in the EU the ill feeling towards the EU will be intense for years to come and I doubt we will be anything other than a difficult party, especially under a brexiteer led conservative government
This has no good endings but TM deal will in hindsight be seen as the best we could have achieved
If we remain, the Conservatives will lose enough Brexiteers to the Farage Party to put the hard left in power. On the plus side, at least Corbyn will be limited in what he can do by our continuing membership of the EU. Happy days!
If the ERG had backed the deal today but it failed due to Labour/DUP/TIG and a tiny handful of Remain headbangers like Grieve then a new election could have solved things.
If the deal dies by 200 votes or similar a new election solves nothing. Only May's resignation can change things and if a new PM can unite the Tory Party behind something then an election might make sense.
The £ has recovered much of the lost ground against the EURO - I suspect the markets feel soft Brexit or remain now in the ascendency. On T. May - many mistakes made but the majority of the problems are really much more to do with the nature of the task set rather than the person charged with delivery. Seriously who'd have done much better?
David Davis, Boris Johnson, Andrew Bridgen etc etc. The whole lot of them.
IMO, Labour's position in a snap election will be "we'll extend Article 50 for two years, we'll negotiate our version of Brexit (Customs Union etc.), then we'll put that deal vs Remain in a referendum at the end of it".
Which would store up a lot of problems for them down the road if they actually got into government, but could potentially work as a short-term position to get them through the election campaign.
Bring it on, I'll vote for the headbangers next time. One democracy fails, I'll go with the most extreme. At least they won't pretend to be democratic. Hard left or far right, it doesn't matter.
a GE is 'cleaner' potentially than a new referendum. at least people will know what they are voting for in the immediate.
Except, as regard Brexit, for those who vote Labour or Conservative.
Will there not be a great reckoning before/during the campaign? Or will the two leaders fudge something that allows their parties to continue to be home to people with opposite views on Brexit?
We don't know how the government will whip on the No Deal vote yet. Seems pretty hard to go either way without prompting cabinet resignations. If it whips for No Deal, then the PM could be looking for a new chancellor to deliver the Spring Statement.
Alternatively, it could have no whip and admit that it's completely lost any semblance of control.
The government whipped against the Spelman amendment, so consistency suggests that they will whip to keep no deal as an option.
That is the logic but it's a much sharper vote now and Hammond went as close as he could the other day to saying that he couldn't vote for it.
Presumably Rudd would have to resign too, which might set a record of sorts. Has anyone resigned twice from the cabinet within 12 months before?
Precisely. Tory GE supporters baffle me more than anyone when that is their reasoning. They need to fix the mess before they can ask the people to choose them.
My wife and children are booked to fly with Icelandair in a few weeks. Is there any way to tell whether their flight is booked to be on a Boeing 8 Max or not?
Nothing up on Icelandair's website or on their Twitter page that I can see regarding this.
I recently flew back from iceland on icelandair on a 737 max. should say on your ticjet
Thanks. My wife has the tickets, if need be I'll ask her to check. I don't want to worry her if don't need to.
My wife and children are booked to fly with Icelandair in a few weeks. Is there any way to tell whether their flight is booked to be on a Boeing 8 Max or not?
Nothing up on Icelandair's website or on their Twitter page that I can see regarding this.
Comments
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1105458517157269504
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/travel/luxury-vietnam-hotels-the-hot-new-places-to-stay-gpn63lgm6
In that light, forgive me if I completely ignore your ludicrously inferior travel advice, on the basis that I probably know, better than anyone in Britain, where to have a very nice time - given that I am paid by the Times to do precisely that.
https://twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/1105459270701772802?s=21
A GE, not sure. Technically the government doesn’t need HMs go-ahead now, just needs to rely on the FTPA. Was Liz consulted last time?
No idea which way they'd vote if they did, but it would be a good laugh to watch.
So far, I think there are nine switchers to the Deal.
The easiest thing to vote for is an A50 extension but that has to be more than 3 months otherwise the UK drives up a cul-de-sac with No Deal very clearly at the end of it. However, asking for more than 3 months might not be something the government is willing to do, depending on what terms come with it. That's the point at which the TIG option comes into play.
The Commons might as well be a pb thread right now for all the weight the words spoken now will have on the vote.
Nothing up on Icelandair's website or on their Twitter page that I can see regarding this.
https://twitter.com/fleetstreetfox/status/1105048571039150080?s=21
We have lost Protestantism, the Empire, and cannot resist a European hegemon that formed through willing cooperation rather than armed conquest. EU membership has been the solvent that has dissolved the last bonds of unity, and massively diluted the economic case for Britain.
Perhaps we really are finished.
Cox says, as a law officer, he would not recommend breaking the law. But if circumstances changed fundamentally, the UK would be able to withdraw from the backstop. A sovereign country can resile from a treaty if circumstances change fundamentally. But he also says that it would be unwise for the country to ignore its legal obligations. This country would not do it, he says." - The Guardian
The return of perfidious Albion; no treaty safe with us...
If remainers think all will be fine if we stay in the EU the ill feeling towards the EU will be intense for years to come and I doubt we will be anything other than a difficult party, especially under a brexiteer led conservative government
This has no good endings but TM deal will in hindsight be seen as the best we could have achieved
Alternatively, it could have no whip and admit that it's completely lost any semblance of control.
https://www.airfleets.net/flottecie/Icelandair.htm
What’s the route?
https://mobile.twitter.com/tictoc/status/1105127724723720192
The route to any kind of second referendum is necessarily convoluted, and there is very little time left to cobble it together. There is certainly no quick handwaving to accomplish it.
I wouldn't worry too much right now about it though. The aviation authorities are grounding the Maxes to a) reassure the public and b) get Boeing to get its finger out.
Either Boeing will satisfactorily demonstrate the Max is safe, and that the two crashes were unrelated (which is still quite possible to be the case) or it will find and fix the issue. Chances are that the Maxes will be flying again by the time you and your family are.
And arrangement unlikely to be duplicated any time soon.
Public just as split...
Ultimately they are forcing a no deal vs remain choice. They may have miscalculated.
Tony's Blair's "We'll give back some of our rebate if you revise the CAP" was a classic of naïve meeting hard-headed EU practice. Sending soft, fluffy EU-fans who trust those nice men in Brussels was never going to end well.
Blair, Cammo, and May have found that out. Given their history, why would Leavers trust them?
It’s one of the reasons us eurosceptics have hated it from the start. But no one listened to us, until it was too late and leaving became impossibly hard.
As of today, we're legally set to leave the EU at 11pm, two weeks on Friday. This means that the only three options are:
1 - We sign a Deal
2 - We extend the deadline (includes extension+GE, extension+ref, extension+alternate deal, extension+fannying about and achieving nothing)
3 - We leave with No Deal
(NB - Item 3 is the default if nothing changes)
Deal-wise, this is the only one on the table. Chance of it passing - maybe 5%? Stranger things have happened.
If we ask to extend the deadline, my guess it will be "long, or nothing." With EU elections coming up, they need clarity on whether or not we'll be standing. If we're in them, we should run to the end of the budget period. If we're not, then it truly is "Deal or No Deal; we Brexit nevertheless". I can only see that happening if Parliament gets pretty close to passing it and May can convince the EU that one more heave will absolutely and genuinely get it over the line.
No-one (well, no-one in Parliament other than the loons) wants item 3, but if we're gridlocked, or if the EU overplay their hand in extension discussions ("You can have one, but give Spain Gibraltar"), it happens in 17 days and 9 hours, anyway.
My best guesses at odds:
- Deal (5%) [includes with short extension]
- Long extension (60%)
- No Deal (35%)
- Other unexpected <1%
- [Note that the first three are approximate to allow for that <1%]
Its unforgivable stupid to keep saying no to everything, they need to say yes to something, anything.
If the deal dies by 200 votes or similar a new election solves nothing. Only May's resignation can change things and if a new PM can unite the Tory Party behind something then an election might make sense.
In their own minds.
Which would store up a lot of problems for them down the road if they actually got into government, but could potentially work as a short-term position to get them through the election campaign.
"a government of headbangers."
Bring it on, I'll vote for the headbangers next time. One democracy fails, I'll go with the most extreme. At least they won't pretend to be democratic. Hard left or far right, it doesn't matter.
Presumably Rudd would have to resign too, which might set a record of sorts. Has anyone resigned twice from the cabinet within 12 months before?